牛市还是熊市？10秒判断牛熊｜MA50/MA200 + 稳定币资金流 + ETF ｜ 加密星球

Hello everyone, welcome to the Crypto Planet.

A few days ago, Bitcoin fell to eighty-four thousand.

There was a lot of wailing in the group.

The bear market is coming.

Then it rebounded to ninety thousand.

Some people shouted that the opportunity to buy low came.

I think most people are completely driven by emotions.

You don't even know where you are.

It's like driving with your eyes closed.

and something will happen sooner or later.

So, I recently spent some time to compress the entire cryptocurrency market into a state machine.

You only need to enter two data every day, and the system will automatically output Whether it is a bull or bear market now or a divergence area.

Then, three coaching layers will tell you whether the conclusion is reliable, how high the risk is, whether the trend will be amplified by ETFs.

For example, now, If you use this set of plans, you can draw a conclusion in ten seconds.

The current state is a bear market digestion period.

The stance of funds is defensive.

and the risk temperature is medium to high.

In a word, It's a risk-removal and digestion period in the bear market.

So, we don't need to argue anymore.

whether it is a bear market or a bull market.

The conclusion is very certain.

it's a bear market.

and it's a grinding bear market digestion stage.

This is also the reason why why they can't sleep well recently.

It's not because of a bad mentality.

but the market is really torturing people.

You must have encountered One day of rising makes them think the bull market is back.

and start to use leverage.

and then one day of decline makes them suspect a bear market.

They want to sell, but they don't know whether to hold, reduce positions, or add positions.

They are confused by the views of various KOLs.

The essential problem is only one.

Many people they treat the market state as the daily rise and fall.

Up and down is noise.

but the state is the system.

So today, we will use data to answer.

what state we are in now and when the state will switch.

Let me show you what the final answer looks like.

I compress the market into four core states.

First, bullish attack.

trend is bullish and funds are attacking.

Second, bull market repair.

trend is more and funds are defensive.

Third, a bear market rebound.

trend is bearish with capital offensive.

Fourth, bear market digestion.

trend bearish with defensive funds.

Which stage are we in now?

Bears消化.

Why is it a bear market digestion period?

I'll use data that is, two hard rules, to answer you.

The first hard rule.

Two moving average structures.

You may have heard of MA two hundred and MA fifty.

They sound very professional, But in fact, they are two average cost lines.

What are moving averages?

In a word, It takes the average price of a certain period of time and draw a line.

Its function is only one.

It filters out daily fluctuations and noises.

to tell you the real direction of the market.

Let's talk about MA two hundred.

MA two hundred is the average price of the past two hundred days.

I call it the lifeline of the market.

You can think of it as the average cost the average cost of all market participants.

Why is MA two hundred so important?

Because this line is not only watched by retail investors, Wall Street institutions, long-term fund trend traders all value it highly.

Many institutions' rules are that allowing long positions only when the price is above MA two hundred.

If it falls below, they reduce risks or even retreat.

So, You can think of the MA two hundred as a dividing line.

If the price is above it, If it falls below, it's like entering the ICU.

It's like entering the intensive care unit.

From this graph, you can see that Bitcoin price broke below the two hundred-day moving average on October seventeenth.

and completely fell below it on November third.

below the two hundred-day moving average.

What is the MA fifty?

MA fifty is the average price of the past fifty days.

I call it the medium-term rhythm line.

MA two hundred tells you the direction.

MA fifty tells you if there is any driving force in this direction.

Now, I'll give you a particularly useful rule for structure determination.

It's just three sentences.

First, the price is above the MA two hundred, and the two hundred-day moving average is flat or rising, Bullish stock price.

We can see that From twenty twenty-four, until November third this year, it has been in a bull market.

Second, the price is below the two hundred MA, and M a two hundred is downward, bearish stock price.

As we can see from the chart, there were two times in twenty twenty-five that price was below but only in November, the trend of M a two hundred began to go down.

Third, the position of MA five hundred above or below MA two hundred determines the quality of the trend.

How to understand the quality of the trend?

If the MA five zero is above the MA two hundred, it means the medium-term trend can keep up, indicating that the market has momentum.

indicating a bull market.

If the MA five zero falls below the MA two hundred, it means the medium-term trend has collapsed.

and the rebound is more like a breather.

If the price is still below the MA fifty, it's even simpler.

It can't even repair the medium-term rhythm.

Most rallies are more like rallies at resistance levels, rather than the beginning of a new trend.

Let's look at the current situation.

The current price is about eighty-seven thousand.

M A five zero is about ninety thousand.

M A two hundred is about one hundred and seven thousand.

That is, the current price is lower than the MA fifty.

and lower than M A two hundred.

What kind of phenomenon is this?

It's a bearish alignment.

In the language of institutions, which means the trend.

which means the stock price is bearish.

The rebound should be regarded as a repair first, not a reversal.

Note that I'm not saying it will plummet immediately.

I'm saying that in this structure, Don't think that just because it rises for a day, as a return to a bull market.

Wait until it recovers the MA fifty.

and then challenge the MA two hundred.

Standing firm on MA two hundred before it can be considered as a stock price repair.

The second hard rule is to see whether the funds are attacking or defending.

Here, I won't talk about complex volume data or a bunch of indicators you don't understand.

I only use two most intuitive the most intuitive and representative of capital behavior.

The total market cap of stablecoins and the total market cap of cryptos.

Cap total, let's first clarify the concept.

What is the market cap of stablecoins?

You can think of stablecoins as dollar cash in the cryptocurrency market.

such as USDT and USDC.

Their price is pegged to one dollar.

So the total market value of stablecoins in a sense, is the amount of cash parked in the cryptocurrency system.

and ready to buy at any time.

I call it the cash pool in the market.

What is total?

total refers to the entire cryptocurrency market.

the total market value of all coins, which includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, and so on.

All of them added together.

You can think of it as the total size of the risk asset pool.

So these two charts together are actually answering a core question.

is money being withdrawn from risky assets and hiding in stablecoins, or out of stablecoins to take on risks again?

The logic is straightforward.

Stablecoin's rise usually means that more funds choose to become cash first.

and stronger defensive sentiment.

The rise of total means that risk assets are expanding as a whole.

funds are more willing to attack.

The point is that we don't look at individual numbers.

we look at the combination.

because the combination is the flow of funds.

Here are four very classic combinations.

Just remember them.

means First, stable rise plus total rise.

cash value increases, and risk assets also increase.

Usually, it's the entry of incremental funds.

which is bullish and aggressive.

Second, stable decline plus total rise.

Cash pool is withdrawn to buy coins.

and risk assets expand.

This is the strongest offensive state.

Third, stable rises while total falls.

risk assets are shrinking, and the cash pool is also increasing.

Typical de-risking and defensive.

The fourth is stable decline plus total decline.

risk assets shrink, and the cash pool is also shrinking.

It indicates that funds may be leaving the crypto system.

It's a complete bear market.

It belongs to stronger defensive pressure.

Okay.

Now let's apply the rules back to the graph.

The stablecoin is about three hundred and seventeen billion.

And since October, the trend has been stable.

Let's look at the dominance of stablecoins, which is the proportion of stablecoins in the entire cryptocurrency market.

You can see that since October, has risen from eight percent to nearly eleven percent.

It's about two point nine four trillion.

And it has weakened below the MA fifty and MA two hundred.

This is the most typical combination.

The rise of stablecoins plus the decline of total which means risk aversion and defense.

So the output of the hard rule two is very clear.

Defensive capital trend.

At this point, the two hard rules are completed.

The first tells us the trend, whether the stock price is bull or bear.

The second rule tells us whether the funds are attacking or defending.

So the result we see now is a bearish stock price plus the defensive stance of funds.

So now, we know that which box the market is in.

It is actually equal to trend bearish plus capital defense.

which is the bear market digestion period.

This is the core conclusion of our state machine.

Next, is the coaching staff.

it doesn't change.

we use the trend structure and capital stance to obtain the market state.

But it determines one thing, how high the risk is.

The thermometer we use is the ATH drawdown.

You can understand ATH as the most consistent and most excited highest consensus point.

In layman's terms, which is the highest point of price.

ATH drawdown is the decline from the highest consensus point.

How much has it retreated?

The algorithm is simple.

Subtract the current price from ATH, and not the other way around.

Now, let's apply real data.

The highest price of Bitcoin in twenty twenty-five is and the current price is about eighty-seven thousand.

What is the retracement?

It's about thirty percent.

What is the reading on the thermometer for a thirty percent drawdown?

Let me give you a very intuitive sense of range.

A drawdown less than twenty percent is like thirty-six to thirty-seven degrees, Normal body temperature.

Market is healthy.

you can boldly attack.

Drawdown twenty to thirty-five percent, Like thirty-seven to thirty-nine degrees, low to moderate fever.

The market is starting to feel uncomfortable It needs to be repaired.

A drawdown over thirty-five percent Above thirty-nine degrees, high fever is dangerous.

the probability of a bear market increases.

A drawdown over sixty percent it's a deep bear market.

It belongs to the interval of poor vital signs.

It's dying.

So now it's a drawdown of over thirty percent.

Where will it fall?

It's very typical.

Thirty-seven to thirty-nine degrees, low to medium fever.

In market terms, it's a medium to high temperature zone.

It's neither safe nor has it reached a complete clearance.

This sentence is very important.

I'll emphasize it again.

The thermometer only measures risk, but not the direction.

We have already looked at the direction with MA five zero and MA two hundred.

which are stock prices.

So you need to separate these two sentences clearly.

The current state is a bear market digestion.

and the current temperature is medium to high risk.

When you are in this temperature, what are the typical manifestations?

You will see three things.

First, the market can rebound, but because the temperature is still high, the rebound often fails to form a trend.

and it's easy to be suppressed near key moving averages.

Second, the market can continue to decline.

but because it has not yet reached the deep bear market, it may not fall sharply every day, but it will be more of a back-and-forth tug of war.

Third, it's the most torturous.

It will rise for a day to make you think it's a reversal, and then drop for two days to bring you back to square one.

So the value of ATH drawdown is not to tell you whether it will rise tomorrow.

It tells you at this stage, whether to take risks seriously.

whether to be more cautious about positions.

Many people only focus on chain and exchange data, forgetting an increasingly critical variable ETF.

Let's first clarify the concept.

what is the essence of spot ETF?

It is the money in traditional financial accounts.

Through the ETF channel, to directly buy spot Bitcoin.

It is held by custodian institutions.

It doesn't need stablecoins, nor does it need to be on the chain.

So ETF is more like wind, rather than an engine.

It doesn't necessarily determine the direction, but it will amplify the already formed direction.

It can push you up faster in a tailwind.

while headwinds can blow you down faster.

How to use ETFs to see trends?

There are three rules.

First, if ETF has a continuous net inflow, it's easier for it to go up and form a trend.

Second, continuous net outflow of ETFs it's easier for a decline to continue.

Third, ETF outflow is dulling, the selling pressure is weakening.

but it doesn't mean a reversal.

Let me explain two more terms to avoid confusion.

Net inflow and net outflow is the money that enters the ETF every day minus the money redeemed.

The dulling means it's still outflowing, but the outflow is decreasing.

and the frequency is decreasing.

In addition, search for value.

there is a very critical line on the chart, AUM.

which means the total assets managed by ETF.

An increase in AUM it means that long-term holdings are increasing.

AOM decline indicates overall retreat.

From the flow chart of ETM, we can clearly see that In the early stage, there was a very obvious strong net inflow which pushed up the market.

Then, it entered a high-level shock.

The inflow began to slow down.

and then there was a continuous net outflow.

AUM has dropped significantly.

It has been mainly net outflow recently.

but there are signs of dulling.

This means that traditional funds are not here to save the market.

They are retreating.

but the speed of retreat is declining.

Pulse pressure is failing.

So The conclusion ETF gives us is not that a bull market is coming, but a more calm one.

It's a bear market structure now.

But the pressure may be shifting from accelerating decline to shock digestion.

This is consistent with the output of our previous state machine.

It's more like a bear market digestion period now, rather than a bull market repair period.

So in the future, when you review the market every day, you don't need to look at dozens of charts or more data.

You just need to read these four lines.

you can turn the market from emotion to data report.

The first line is trend stock price.

Look at the price, MA five zero, MA two hundred arrangement.

The second is the stance of funds.

Look at the direction of stable con market cap and total.

Third, the temperature of risk.

Look at the ATH drawdown and which range it falls into.

The fourth line is ETF accelerator, Look at the net inflow.

net outflow is strengthening or dulling.

Also, see if AUM is rising or falling.

Now, let's combine today's content into a few sentences.

First is the trend.

the stock price is bearish.

the spot price is less than the MA fifty, and less than the MA two hundred price.

Secondly, the capital stance defensive and stable.

coins rise while prices fall.

Third, the risk temperature is medium to high.

ATI has retreated by more than thirty percent.

Finally, ETFs retreat but are dull.

The pulse pressure is weakened but not reversed.

So the most reasonable stage positioning of the current market is to de-risk in the mid-to-late bear market.

and a period of shock digestion.

It's not the desperate clearing at the end of a bear market, nor the trend repair in the early bull market.

It is the most painful stage.

It's the most painful stage, but the most important thing is to pay attention to discipline.

Finally, here are the most valuable words in this video.

The state period is not for you to guess the bottom.

but to tell you when the state will switch.

From a bear market digestion period to a healthier state.

You need to see at least three of the following four signals appear simultaneously.

First, Bitcoin recovers the MA fifty first, and then recover the MA two hundred and hold it.

Second, Total stops falling and returns to MA fifty.

and preferably challenge the MA two hundred.

Third, the market value of stablecoins stops rising.

and trend to flatten or fall.

indicating that funds are willing to take risks again.

Fourth, ETF goes from continuous net outflow to continuous net inflow.

AUM will rise in more than two to four weeks.

When these signals start to appear together, you can talk about bull market repair or bull market attack.

it makes sense to talk about it.

Okay.

What you hear today is not the ability to predict the future, but a set of standards for judging the current situation.

When you have a state machine, the market is no longer an emotional world, but a chessboard of data.

I can summarize it in one sentence: trends depend on MA fifty and MA two hundred.

funds look at stable total.

Temperature depends on drawdown.

ETF looks at acceleration.

Next, I want to do a very interesting thing.

I will turn this framework into a daily updated dashboard.

You can open it and see what state the market is in today.

What's the risk temperature?

Whether it is close to switching.

If If you are willing to work with me to make this project, and optimize it together.

Welcome to join our discuss community.

the Self-Governance Society of Bystanders.

The entrance is on the home page of the external network channel.

where we use the same set of standards to discuss the market.

Less talk and more data.

and more data.

If you like this kind of data-driven content, please like, subscribe, and forward it to your friend who guesses the market every day.

Okay, see you in the next video.

Thank you, goodbye.