【警告】美股估值已超1929年大蕭條前夕！巴菲特指標亮起紅燈，2026年我們離懸崖還有多遠？手上的錢怎麼辦？ #美國衰退 #美元

S&P 500 Index in 2025 Another record high The Federal Reserve also appointed a new chairman.

Wall Street is optimistic Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank They all shouted the target of 8000 points.

But have you ever thought about it?

Beneath this facade of peace and prosperity The money you worked so hard to earn It is very likely that within the next year A storm you can't see or imagine Silently devour I'm not here today to give you a pep talk.

I'm here to dampen your spirits.

I want to uncover the truth behind the market boom.

Three huge cracks Each one is like a time bomb.

After watching this video You will know why the market is now Walking on a very dangerous tightrope But most people are still dancing on a tightrope.

Recently, some students have asked me...

PaPa's market is booming.

My stocks are also making money.

Why your recent videos Instead, they became more cautious.

That's a very good question.

This means you have begun to think independently.

Instead of just following the crowd As someone who has been in the market for over 30 years I've personally experienced it with real money.

1997 Asian financial crisis The dot-com bubble of 2000 Veteran of the 2008 financial crisis I learned from countless painful lessons The most important lesson I learned is When the fireworks reached their highest and most brilliant point...

It's often just when it's about to start falling.

Market risks It never appears when you've hit rock bottom.

But when prices rise to the point that everyone loses their minds Accumulated quietly Everyone has probably seen a very classic movie The Big Short Selling The one inside has a fiery temper However, relying on independent research and data analysis Steve Eisman, the fund manager who foresaw the mortgage crisis His recent views on the market in 2025-2026 I believe all investors We must listen with utmost attention.

He believes we are in an extremely dangerous situation.

In the "K-shaped economy" What is a K-shaped economy?

This word sounds very professional.

But it's actually very easy to understand.

You can imagine the English letter "K".

One of its strokes depicts a head held high, pointing upwards.

But the other painting depicts a figure diving downwards.

This perfectly illustrates our current economic situation.

A small segment of the field has seen explosive growth.

Rapidly upward Meanwhile The vast majority of the real economy But it was like a kite with a broken string.

It's quietly sliding down.

This is not me or Eisman.

imagined out of thin air US GDP growth in 2025 It is expected to exceed 2%.

The equivalent amount is approximately $500 billion.

That sounds like a pretty healthy number, right?

But in fact, within this 500 billion growth...

More than $400 billion Contribution as high as 80% They all come from a single field.

AI-related capital expenditures What does this mean?

Let me give you an example.

This is like a class.

The average score looks good.

80 points But if you look closely at the transcript They were discovered to be some of the most gifted students in the class.

Get 100 in every subject Most of the students in the class actually failed.

You mentioned the overall educational level of this class Is it really healthy?

Our current economy This is a class with a serious imbalance in its academic performance.

If you remove the single engine of AI The rest of the U.S. economy

Almost zero growth It may even be shrinking.

It's like a giant Boeing 747.

On the surface, it flies high and steadily.

But in reality, of the four engines Only one is operating at full capacity.

The other three engines were almost shut down.

Do you think this is dangerous?

What if this only working engine malfunctions?

What will be the consequences?

This massive division This was vividly demonstrated in the stock market.

S&P 500 Although it has increased by 17% this year But if you look closely The gains will be highly concentrated in the "Big Seven".

Many traditional industries For example, consumption and manufacturing.

And those small and medium-sized enterprises that serve our daily lives Their stocks actually performed very poorly.

This is K-type differentiation.

This also explains it.

Why do many people feel this way?

The news reports every day that the stock market is hitting new highs.

But my own stock account It seems like I haven't made much money.

Even losing money Because you likely already possess it.

The K-shaped downward stroke represents assets.

What you perceive as prosperity It's just someone else's prosperity.

So when you see When the market index keeps hitting new highs When you hear the people around you While everyone is discussing how much money they've made on stocks I hope you can ask yourself a question.

The companies I invest in It's the upward stroke of the K-shape.

Enjoying the dividends of the times It's still in the downward stroke.

Being ruthlessly abandoned by the times If we consider the economic growth of the entire country They're all stuck in a single...

Moreover, in the field of AI, which is fraught with uncertainty...

This in itself is a huge risk.

This leads to our first question today.

This is also the most important warning.

Don't be fooled by the false prosperity of the index.

You must see clearly the inherent cracks in the economic structure.

Find the direction with real growth potential I know from this point Many people will immediately refute me PaPa, you're too pessimistic.

AI is the future The Fourth Industrial Revolution How could it be a risk?

Look at Nvidia's stock price.

Look at the amazing applications brought about by AI This is clearly a once-in-a-century opportunity!

You're right.

I also never deny the enormous potential of AI.

It is and will continue to profoundly change our world.

However, as a rational investor We must distinguish clearly "Great technology" and "good investment" are two different things.

The Internet is a great technology But investors who invested in these companies back then In the end, all investment was lost.

This is the most valuable lesson history has taught us.

As investment guru Peter Lynch said When everyone firmly believes in something...

"And when it is believed that it will only rise and never fall" That's often when you need to start being careful.

Now only one company It has something to do with AI The stock price can soar to the sky.

Nobody cares whether it's profitable or not.

Nobody cares what its business model is.

Everyone is paying the price for a vague and uncertain "future".

Let's look at a set.

A figure even more astonishing than GDP data According to estimates from Bank of America Just Google, Meta, and Microsoft Amazon and Oracle These five mega-sized enterprises AI capital expenditure in 2025 It reached a staggering $399 billion.

Deutsche Bank made even bolder predictions.

By 2030 These companies' cumulative spending on AI data centers It will reach a staggering $4 trillion.

What is the concept of 4 trillion US dollars?

Let me give you another reference point.

This is equivalent to the United States in the 1960s.

The Apollo moon landing program, which mobilized the entire nation's resources.

Ten times the total cost after adjusting for inflation.

The American moon landing With clear national strategic goals It was to defeat the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

And now this high-stakes gamble by tech giants But it was Deutsche Bank analysts calmly described as "Investments without guaranteed returns" Why is there no guaranteed return?

Because there are at least two fatal bottlenecks here.

Like two giant roadblocks Blocking the path of AI development The first bottleneck It is also the toughest constraint.

It is electricity I've said before that the ultimate goal of AI is energy.

Training and running large AI models It requires an astonishing amount of electricity.

Data centers are huge "power hogs".

According to Goldman Sachs' latest forecast Data center power requirements It is expected to accelerate its growth by 175% in the next few years.

What kind of growth rate is this?

The past decade U.S. electricity demand grows by less than 0.5% annually.

U.S. electricity demand grows by less than 0.5% annually.

And now because of AI This figure could jump to 2.5% to 3%.

By 2030 Data Center This could account for 12% of total electricity consumption in the United States.

This is a truly terrifying number.

Where does electricity come from?

Build a new power plant Whether it is traditional energy or new energy It will take several years or even more than a decade.

Power grid upgrading and transformation Equally time-consuming and labor-intensive Although now the giants They've already set their sights on space.

However, this will also take time to build.

If the power supply cannot keep up The development of AI will be hampered.

This is like when you buy a...

Supercar worth tens of millions But they discovered that the whole city was short of oil.

Gas stations have limited daily supply Do you think this sports car can still run?

The second bottleneck is demand and monetization.

Current AI investment To a large extent, it's an "arms race".

Major tech giants are frantically buying Nvidia chips.

Build your own data center Not because they have already found it A clear way to make money Rather, it's because they are afraid I am behind in this competition This is also a typical example of "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment.

But the problem is these huge investments Can it be transformed into something tangible?

Sustainable profits Where will the killer app be in the future?

We are now seeing many interesting AI applications.

For example, chatting, drawing But how many of these truly benefit businesses or individuals?

Willing to continue paying Nvidia's financial report is indeed impressive.

Third-quarter revenue increased by more than 60% year-over-year.

The data center business has set a record.

But this explosive growth To a large extent It is built on these tech giants Based on frenzied hoarding This is like during the gold rush.

Everyone rushed to buy shovels This led to the shovel-selling company making a fortune.

Nvidia now That's the guy who made the most money selling shovels.

But if the gold prospectors spent several years A huge amount of money was invested But they found they couldn't dig up enough gold.

Will they continue to buy new, more expensive shovels?

The answer is obviously no.

Once these tech giants The return on investment for AI was found to be lower than expected.

Start cutting capital expenditures So what about the demand for upstream companies like Nvidia?

It will plummet.

Valuation logic of the entire AI industry chain All will face the risk of collapse.

So for AI We must be prepared for both possibilities.

On the one hand, we must acknowledge its revolutionary potential.

On the other hand, we must also be soberly aware that Current frenzy It is very likely that a huge bubble has already been created.

As a smart investor What we should think about is How to be in this feast Both can get a share of the pie And be able to leave safely when the music stops.

This fits perfectly.

I have been sharing with everyone "Three-Stage Framework for Ten-Bagger Stocks" Many great companies In their early growth stages That is, the first stage Often, it's due to being "oversold or overlooked by the market."

They may be affected by some temporary negative news.

Or its innovative business model Not understood by the market at the time This resulted in the stock price being severely undervalued.

This is exactly what we value investors are all about.

Best entry time Because we can use very low cost Buying huge growth potential in the future And when a company enters the second stage The "verified" stage Its performance began to explode.

The business model is recognized by the market.

The stock price began to rise steadily.

Although this stage is safe However, the returns are not as impressive as in the first phase.

Finally, when a company enters the third stage...

That is, the stage of "being praised and told stories".

For example, most AI concept stocks now The stock price has completely deviated from the fundamentals.

The market is filled with all sorts of wonderful stories and fantasies.

This is when the stock price rises the fastest and most sharply.

But that's precisely when the risk is greatest.

It's time for retail investors to rush in and take over the losses.

If you want to learn systematically Go and discover those that are still in the first stage A company with the potential to become the next Nvidia Instead of chasing after those that have been overhyped A bubble that could burst at any moment I sincerely invite you Learn more about my "Ten-Bagger" course.

I will share my more than 30 years of practical experience It's condensed into a set of methods that even ordinary people can learn.

Effective methods You can find the information in the bar below.

Find the course link Remember to seek knowledge before investing.

This is better than blindly rushing into the market.

Using one's hard-earned money as a gamble Much safer and smarter If we say K-shaped economy It is a structural crack in the market.

The AI bubble is a sword hanging over our heads.

Sword of Damocles Now I'm going to talk about the risk.

It is a more hidden and more dangerous existence.

It's like a A massive iceberg hidden beneath the calm surface of the water Once hit The consequences would be unimaginable.

This is the private credit market.

You may rarely hear this word in the news.

But its size will absolutely amaze you.

According to the latest data By the end of 2024 Global private credit market assets under management It has reached an astonishing $3.5 trillion.

This is a Compared to the annual GDP of France and Canada A huge market is also needed.

What is private lending?

Simply put, it means not through the open market.

Instead, it is handled by some large funds and asset management companies.

For example, you may have heard of Blackstone, Apollo, and other giants Providing loans directly to businesses Because they bypassed The strict financial regulatory system of traditional banks This market has become a huge An opaque "black box" This reminds me of...

The culprit behind the 2008 financial crisis Subprime mortgage The geniuses of Wall Street at that time All sorts of mess extremely poor quality real estate loans Packaged into seemingly high-end financial products For example, CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation) Then label it AAA.

Sold to investors worldwide Because the entire process is extremely complex and opaque.

Nobody really knows How many bad debts are hidden in those products?

Until the last bubble bursts It triggered a global financial disaster.

Steve Eisman, the protagonist of "The Big Short Selling" It also warned The private lending market and the subprime mortgage crisis of that year.

The biggest commonality is a "lack of transparency".

He pointed out that although the mortgage data from that year was complex But as long as you're willing to spend money You can also get credit ratings from Moody's, S&P and other credit rating agencies.

Purchase detailed data See the monthly default status However, private lending, as the name suggests...

Everything is "private".

No public database There is no unified regulatory reporting system.

You have no idea what the quality of these loans is like.

What is the borrower's true repayment ability?

They don't even know the specific terms of these loans.

This means If this market really has a problem It was almost destined to be something that would make everyone...

An unexpected "surprise" You won't see the storm slowly gathering in the distance.

You have time to prepare You will only be like on a sunny summer afternoon.

Suddenly struck by a bolt of lightning Recently, some have appeared on the market.

Disturbing danger signals There are two seemingly unrelated companies It suddenly collapsed.

These all involve serious allegations of financial fraud.

They are said to be using the same asset.

For example, the same batch of cars Repeatedly borrowing money from different lenders This is like one person holding the property certificate for the same house.

10 copies were made.

Then to 10 different banks It's as absurd as applying for a mortgage loan.

Although these two companies Not entirely within the private lending sector But their fall regarded as the entire credit system A key warning sign of vulnerability When regulations are lax Human greed will be amplified infinitely.

What's even more worrying is With the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes over the past two years Interest rates have remained high for an extended period.

More and more businesses are feeling the pressure of repayment.

Those during periods of low interest rates Companies that have borrowed a lot of private credit They are now facing the predicament of soaring borrowing costs.

Although interest rates have been reduced several times But it's still considered to be at a high level.

Swiss banks recently issued a warning.

Expected in 2026 Default rate of private credit It could rise by a full 3 percentage points.

In a $3 trillion market 3 percentage points of default This means there is a potential loss of nearly $100 billion.

This is definitely not a small amount.

It is enough to shock the financial system.

So this $3 trillion credit black box This is the third huge crack in the market.

It usually operates silently.

Hidden from public view However, once an economic recession occurs...

Corporate profits decline Decreased repayment ability The risks accumulated here It could happen like dominoes.

One after another, they broke out in a concentrated manner.

Intertwined with issues such as K-line divergence and the AI bubble Form a perfect storm At this point, some friends might think I'm being too pessimistic.

These risks sound scary.

But isn't the market still rising?

Don't the big Wall Street banks all predict 8000 points?

This is the most bizarre thing about investing.

It is also the most charming place Market sentiment is often the best contrarian indicator.

This is something I've been emphasizing to everyone.

We should be contrarian investors in the market.

Dare to be fearful when others are greedy Be greedy when others are fearful.

To make things clearer and more objective for everyone See where we are in history I'll show you two very important ones.

It can be described as an indicator that "reveals the true nature of the market".

The first indicator is the "Shiller Price-to-Earnings Ratio".

This indicator was developed by Nobel laureate in economics.

Invented by Robert Schiller He doesn't look at the present year.

Instead, it measures the stock price of a company or the entire market.

Relative to its average earnings multiple over the past 10 years Furthermore, this profit figure has been adjusted for inflation.

In short It's more than the typical price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) we usually see.

It better reflects the true long-term valuation level of the market.

Because it smooths out short-term fluctuations in the economic cycle.

and sudden fluctuations in profits The current Shiller-P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 40.

The number itself may not seem like much.

But if we put it into Comparing within the long river of history You will feel a chill run down your spine.

In the past 140 years of recorded history The number 40 has only been surpassed in one period.

That was in 2000.

The peak and most frenzied moment of the dot-com bubble Our current market valuation Even more so than on the eve of the Great Depression in the United States in 1929.

Even more expensive Historical data is a very honest teacher.

It tells us When Shiller's price-to-earnings ratio is at such an extremely high level Market in the next 10 years Even the annualized return over 15 years is often negative.

Or very low in other words You buy an index fund at this price now Then hold for 10 years It's very likely that it won't make money or even will result in a loss.

This is a very strong Very clear warning signal The second indicator is the "Buffett Indicator".

This indicator is even simpler and more direct.

It uses a country Total market capitalization of all listed companies Divide by the country's GDP Warren Buffett himself said This is at any specific moment.

"The best single metric for measuring valuation levels" It measures the degree of securitization in the entire country.

If stock prices rise much faster than the real economy...

This indicator will skyrocket like a balloon.

Guess what the Buffett indicator is in the US right now?

The answer is an astonishing 222%.

What does this mean?

Historically, the fair value range of this indicator Between approximately 75% and 90% 222% now This has far exceeded the normal range.

This indicates the degree of bubble in the overall market.

It's already very serious.

All of this points to the same conclusion.

Market sentiment has become overheated.

The valuation is already extremely expensive.

Risks are accumulating rapidly.

But most people are completely unaware.

The late investment master Buffett's golden partner Charlie Munger famously said "If you want to know the outcome..."

"Let's go and see what the incentive mechanism is."

What are the incentive mechanisms on Wall Street now?

It encourages fund managers to chase short-term performance rankings.

It's about getting analysts to call for higher target prices.

To attract customers to make transactions No one has the incentive to tell you the truth about the market.

To remind you of the potentially huge risks But my responsibility is to tell you the truth.

As your financial literacy mentor My incentive mechanism I just hope that my students and my audience Able to establish correct investment views Able to weather the storms of the market Protect your hard-earned money And achieve long-term wealth growth I don't need to please anyone.

I only need to be responsible to my conscience and my students.

Therefore, I must remind you Don't be the one who ends up paying the price for this carnival.

Okay, we've analyzed so many risks.

So many cracks were revealed I believe the question that everyone is most concerned about is So, facing such an uncertain situation...

High valuation market What should ordinary investors do?

It's time to clear out your positions and leave the market immediately.

Should I exchange all the money for cash?

Should we continue to ride the market wave?

I'm betting I won't be the last one to take the baton.

First, I want to make one point clear.

I never recommend it to everyone To accurately predict market tops or bottoms No one can do that.

Anyone who claims they can do it He's either a liar or a fool.

But we ordinary people Although it is impossible to predict when the storm will arrive.

But he can act like an experienced captain.

We reinforced our ship in advance Store up food and fresh water Plan your routes Specifically, I'll give you four actionable suggestions.

First, let me give you my investment portfolio.

Get a comprehensive "health check".

Take out your holdings now.

Don't deceive yourself.

Honestly examine every company you buy.

Ask yourself a few key questions Is the valuation of this company reasonable?

The price you bought It is based on its real profitability.

It's still based on a distant AI story.

Its current price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-sales ratio What level does it occupy in history?

Does this company have a strong competitive advantage?

Is it brand, technology, network effects, or cost advantage?

Its competitors Can its success be easily replicated?

Can this company produce...?

Continuous and stable free cash flow Or does it need to constantly burn money and raise funds to survive?

4. What if the market suddenly drops by 30% tomorrow?

Even a 50% pullback Are you confident enough to continue holding it?

Or will you panic and sell?

If your answer to any of the questions is no Or feel hesitant Then you might need to seriously consider it.

Reduce some positions Or replace it with a higher-quality company with a more reasonable valuation.

Second, stockpile your "ammunition".

Patiently wait for the arrival of "spring".

When the market is at a high level Hold a certain percentage of cash A very important defensive strategy This doesn't mean you're bearish on the market.

Instead, it's about preparing for future opportunities.

Remember, true wealth comes in the "spring" of a bear market.

At an extremely low price The creation of buying high-quality assets When the market crashes When others are panic selling off shares of quality companies The cash you have is your greatest weapon.

It's the "ammunition" that allows you to confidently buy discounted assets.

Warren Buffett, the legendary investor, at the end of the third quarter of 2025 Holding more than $380 billion in cash and short-term US Treasury bonds What do you think he's waiting for?

He was waiting for one This could give him the opportunity to "catch gold in a big bucket".

Third, focus on the company's intrinsic value.

Rather than short-term market prices Don't stare at the ups and downs of stock prices every day.

That will only cause your emotions to fluctuate.

Make the wrong decision You need to act like a real businessman.

Go and research the company's fundamentals To understand its business model Management Team and Long-Term Value The price will be like a puppy walking with its owner.

Sometimes running ahead Sometimes falling behind But it will eventually return to its owner.

The intrinsic value of a company lies in its owner.

When you truly understand the value of the companies you invest in You can navigate the turbulent waves of the market Maintain inner peace Because you know As long as the company itself is good Short-term market fluctuations are just noise.

The fourth and most important point Continuous learning to improve your investment knowledge Investing is a never-ending learning process.

The market is changing, and so are the rules of the game.

The only constant It requires you to continuously invest time and energy.

Go learn and research to improve your cognitive level Only then can we keep up with the pace of the market.

This is also why I founded this channel.

And it took a lot of effort The original intention behind creating my investment course I hope to share my knowledge and experience with everyone.

Helping everyone build their own independent investment system Instead of always following others, listening to news and chasing hot topics Looking ahead to 2026 We will still face many uncertainties.

First, the Federal Reserve will undergo a major power shift.

The term of office of current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Expires in May Trump also emphasized Anyone who disagrees with him None of them could become the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

This means The Federal Reserve's independence may be challenged.

Over the past few decades The Federal Reserve has always been regarded as an institution independent of politics.

Its monetary policy decisions are based on economic data.

Rather than the president's preferences But what if the new chairman is a "Trump loyalist"?

Then the Federal Reserve's policies may become more politicized.

Trump has consistently wanted to cut interest rates.

If the new chairman cooperates with his wishes This could lead to overly lenient policies.

Further exacerbating inflation risks More importantly The Federal Reserve's voting committee in 2026 After a major reshuffle According to the rotation mechanism Four new regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents Will gain voting rights Three of them are considered hawks.

They are more cautious about cutting interest rates.

Even if Trump wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates significantly He may also encounter resistance within the voting committee.

This creates a very interesting game situation.

On one side is the president who wants to loosen monetary policy.

On the other side is the more hawkish voting committee.

This internal division and tug-of-war This will affect market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies.

It became more chaotic Volatility will also be exacerbated as a result.

Besides the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve And the US midterm elections I want to emphasize this midterm election.

Because historical data provides us with very clear warnings.

Current data shows The probability of Democrats controlling the Senate is 33%.

However, the probability of them controlling the House of Representatives is as high as 74%.

This means Trump and the Republican Party To maintain complete control over Congress They will face severe challenges.

They have to deal with The ruling party's bad historical precedent in midterm elections And now they have to deal with the problem of Trump's declining approval ratings.

Historical data is the most honest teacher.

Since the American Civil War In 39 midterm elections The ruling party lost its majority of seats 35 times.

Especially in the House of Representatives election This is an astonishing 90% probability.

And more importantly Looking back at the data since 1927 The second year of the US presidential term That is, the midterm election year.

It is the S&P 500 index The year with the lowest average and median returns This is not a coincidence, it's a pattern.

Political uncertainty This will directly translate into market volatility.

If the Republican Party loses control of Congress Many of Trump's policies Including tax cuts and deregulation.

They may all face resistance.

This is for those who have already benefited from the policy.

For companies that have factored in the stock price in advance This is definitely not good news.

History also tells us With the midterm elections over Political uncertainty has decreased Stock markets often begin to rise before the end of the year.

So 2026 is for us It is both a challenge and an opportunity.

Volatility will filter out speculators with weak resolve.

But it will benefit value investors like us who are prepared.

Create excellent A life-changing buying opportunity Faced with such a complex and challenging situation I hope everyone will not panic.

Instead, you should feel excited.

Because of the crisis Danger is an opportunity My 30+ years of investment experience have taught me...

True investment masters They were all born in the midst of the crises that others feared most.

I hope this video can serve as a wake-up call.

Helping everyone navigate the surrounding frenzied market atmosphere Maintain a rare calm and rationality.

More importantly I want to hear your voice Please tell me in the comments section below.

What are your thoughts on the current market?

Which of the risks we've discussed today is you most concerned about?

Or have you discovered any stocks that are undervalued by the market?

Investment opportunities in "springtime" Finally, if you found today's content helpful...

Remember to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications.

Then you can immediately We have received a notification that you have uploaded a video.

We will incorporate complex economic and investment theories I'll explain it to you simply through current events.

Please also watch today's video.

Share this with your friends who are interested in investing.

See you in the next video!