2025 S.T. Lee Lecture: Can the U.S. Sustain a Future in the Western Pacific?

Good evening and welcome to the John F.

Kennedy Jr. Forum at the Institute of

Politics. My name is Wyth. I'm a

sophomore studying history and

literature and government at the college

and I'm a member of the JFK Junior Forum

Committee. Before we begin, please note

the exit doors which are located on both

the park side and JFK street side of the

forum. In event of an emergency, please

walk to the exit closest to you and

congregate in JFK Park.

Please now also take a moment to silence

your cell phones and join me in

welcoming St. Lee Chair in US Asia

relations at the Harvard Kennedy School,

Ron Mitt.

[Applause]

>> Good evening. It is a pleasure to see so

many of you gathered here this evening

for a very special event, the St. Lee

lecture. Before we get to our main

event, may I just say uh a few words

about this event and what's going to

happen tonight. Um first of all let me

take a moment to uh be very grateful to

St. Lee himself. Uh the late

philanthropist from Singapore was a

generous donor to educational and

philanth philanthropic causes around the

world. Uh he was kind enough to uh endow

the chair that I hold. So I'm very

grateful to him but also to endow the

lecture uh a series of which has been

running for some years now on subjects

to do with Asia broadly speaking. and

tonight's lecture is part of that

series. So, we're very grateful to the

legacy of Mr. Lee and do note his

generosity.

I'd also like to say a word about our

speaker tonight and also the chair of

the discussion. First of all, the

speaker himself. He is one of Asia's

best known public intellectuals and

someone who has had experience in

government as well as thinking about

bigger issues around Asia. He is George

Yo. George was a uh member of the

Singaporean Parliament for more than 20

years. He served in a variety of

distinguished positions within the

Singapore uh government uh including as

uh Minister for Information and the

Arts, Minister for Health, Minister for

Trade and Industry, but perhaps in a

global sense most significantly,

Minister for Foreign Affairs. Those of

you here tonight, I think, will be aware

of perhaps the outsiz influence in a

good sense that Singapore has in Asian

and global politics. And therefore, to

be the foreign minister of Singapore is

to draw attention and to be listened to

perhaps even more so than the being the

foreign minister of some countries which

are technically larger but perhaps don't

have quite that clout. Although being a

diplomat in this occasion myself, I will

not name any of those other countries.

Um, Giorgio started off uh in uh

Cambridge, not this one, but uh the

other one across the water where he took

a double first class degree as a Brit. I

can tell you that is very very hard to

do and very distinguished in engineering

from the University of Cambridge. He

then did he then came to his senses and

decided to come over to this Cambridge

where he took an MBA at the Harvard uh

uh the Harvard Business School where he

was again uh an outstanding student who

received a Baker scholarship. He served

as a signal officer in the Singaporean

army. Uh then also served in the air

force becoming chief of staff in fact of

the air staff and also director of joint

operations and planning in the ministry

of defense attaining the rank of

brigadier general. He has also had a

whole variety of uh extraordinary

interesting and slightly unusual posts

during his time in public life. uh

amongst them being a member of the board

of trustees of the Burguan Institute on

Governance very important international

think tank um on the international

advisory council of China's eco forum uh

at global guang the international

advisory committee of the Mitsubishi

corporation I won't read out all of the

qualifications but I will mention that

he was also a member of the pontipical

commission for reference on the economic

and administrative structure of the holy

sea in 2013 to 14 and the Vatican

Council for the Economy from 2014 to

2020. So, if you're ever wondering who

the Pope asked to add up his uh accounts

and make sure that they came together,

it sounds like Giorgio is the answer to

that particular question.

Giorgio is also an author. Amongst the

uh books that he's written is a book

rather sort of um going to I put it

poignantly titled Musings in which he

writes and thinks about a variety of

issues to do with Asia and politics more

broadly speaking. And in a moment we

will introduce him to give the uh St.

Lee lecture on the subject of

contemporary geopolitics something on

which he is eminently wellqualified to

speak. But before we uh bring him to the

stage, may I also mention one other

person who will be central to this

evening's events. Um after Georgio's

lecture, he will sit here in the company

of Professor Anthony Sich. Uh Tony S

will be uh leading the discussion before

we go to Q&A. And there'll be plenty of

time for Q&A with the audience here. So

please do start thinking of questions

and get ready to get to the the

microphones which are set up for you.

But I particularly wanted to draw

attention to Tony's chairing tonight. Uh

Tony, for those of you who don't know,

is the deu professor of governance here

at the Harvard Kennedy School based

based in the Ash Center and he's also

director of the Rajali Foundation

Institute for Asia. But those are just

his titles. What I think we should note

is that for more than a quarter of a

century, Tony has been absolutely

central to the building up and

development of the study of Asia here at

the Harvard Kennedy School. Again, time

doesn't permit um to listing all of the

various ways in which he's contributed

to that effort, but certainly countries

as far apart as uh Bangladesh, China of

course on which he is an internationally

acknowledged expert and most recently

Vietnam are amongst the countries where

he has brought expertise, scholarship

and actually huge amounts of interaction

to HKS. most recently just last weekend

where he helmed a two-day uh

international conference bringing

together scholars and veterans from both

sides of the Vietnam Wars. And the

reason I mentioned this tonight is that

um this is um perhaps amongst the last

times that Tony will chair an event in

his current chair because um to our

regret at the end of this academic year

he will be stepping down from the DEU

chair but to our delight he will be

transitioning to become a research

professor here at the Harvard Kennedy

School. So as I understand it, as I

understand it, this means that he will

still be a very constant present amongst

us, but with far less grading to do,

which sounds like a good kind of

compromise as far as many professors are

uh concerned.

But our main event tonight is the ST Lee

lecture for 2025 on the subject

fascinating maybe even provocative of

what is the future for the United States

in the Western Pacific. And to give the

ST lecture we have a very big HKS

welcome for Minister Georgio.

[Applause]

It's a great pleasure and honor for me

to be back at the Kennedy School and I

feel

a special pleasure to have behind me uh

the Singapore flag together the US flag.

Some 20 years ago, I helped negotiate

the free trade agreement between

Singapore and the US at a time when free

trade was a high ideal in the world. Uh,

and got for Singapore a special

allocation of H1B1

visas, which is particularly valuable

currency in today's circumstances.

Uh the world has changed dramatically.

When I was in Cambridge, the other

Cambridge,

it was the bicesentennial

of America and I remember Alistister

Alistister Cook's series on the BBC

and I bought the book and lived through

it with pleasure.

America,

I think, inspired many generations of us

in Asia. The American dream

became the Asian dream.

A few months ago, I was across the river

for my 40th class reunion at the

business school,

and two of my classmates

saddled up to me to ask,

"Do you think we're in decline?

I was careful in framing my response,

not wanting to cause

offense, but at the same time wanting to

be honest.

It is a question asked all over Asia

today. Is the US in decline?

Teddy Roosevelt once said, you know,

speak softly, carry a big stick and you

go far.

Today

the US is not speaking softly.

So it raises a question as to the

quality of that stick

because if you really have a strong

stick, you can be very polite, you can

be very humble, very modest and people

be very respectful to you. But when you

have to raise your voice

and flail the stick, then you you begin

to wonder.

Trump has been very hard on Asian

countries, threatening them, dog beating

them, bullying them. And you're finding

in country after country a reaction.

If you're a small country like

Singapore, you rather be in the shadow,

you know, and not attract too much

attention.

You're China. You have no choice but to

stand firm. I mean even India had to

stand firm.

I made some passing remarks about India

standing firm when I was in Europe

recently.

It became news throughout India. An

Indian Punjabi friend of mine messaged

me to say you become famous in India. It

was a remark made on passon

but honestly expressed

that Indians should react in this way is

because inside they're angry and

resentful.

It's not just Trump because even if

there's a rebound after Trump, there is

a ratcheting downward

movement. A sense that a US feeling more

insecure about itself

will no longer waste time on

nice words about the globalist agenda

and will insist on its own prerogatives.

And when he's able to extract more from

you, we'll boast about it almost in

self-justification.

We don't know.

I saw Secretary Hex doing push-ups at

Annapolis

and it's a new world record.

The the last was held by the US Air

Force.

I thought back 50 years ago I was with

the US Army to train as a signals

officer at Fort Gordon.

One of the first things we were told was

if your check bounce as a commission

officer you lose that commission

and if you are obese you won't get

promoted.

So when there were

complaints that

HexF was criticizing fat generals,

there's nothing wrong with that. How

could you be a military leader if you're

obese? If you can't exercise that

modicum of self-discipline

and I hope even today if your credit is

no good you should be removed from your

commission

but I don't know things have changed in

this country

so those of us

who were in inspired by the US studied

here worked here worry

What does it mean? If it continues, what

does it mean?

If the US recovers,

how long would it take?

I mean we may some of us at least may

laugh about some aspects of the MAGA

agenda

but MAGA as a strategic

ambition must be a good thing because if

the US

continues with its relative decline,

the the consequences for the world are

profound.

Maybe even more so than the fall of

Western Rome which led to the dark ages

or the fall of the Ottomans

which effects we are still seeing all

over the Middle East today

or the fall of theQing dynasty

which among many other ramifications

created a Chinese majority city state

called Singapore.

So when big empires

go into decline,

when America starts shutting down

military bases and the 800 of them

maintaining peace and stability and

local equilibriums in different parts of

the world,

then the pieces will begin to move again

and everyone will begin to make

alternative arrangements and regional

hedgeimons.

will start throwing their weight around.

You know, Trajan, the Roman Emperor, he

went all the way to the Persian Gulf,

his successor, Hedrianos.

He said, "No, no, we overextending." So,

retreated from Armenia, from

Mesopotamia, and held the land of

Euphrates.

Maybe Trump

sensing that the US is overextended,

that the current policy cannot be

financed,

wants to retreat.

So when he talks about wanting Canada to

be the 51st state and taking over

Greenland and the canal and sending

ships to intimidate Venezuela,

I said, "Yes, if if the US were to

retreat

into

a north and central American sphere,

which includes Greenland and the

northern part of South America and of

course then the Gulf of Mexico becomes

naturally the Gulf of America. I say,

"Wow, that's still a very powerful

entity with enormous resources, land

area,

a population which is still vital and

growing.

Of course, he can't talk like that.

But watching his moves, even if they are

not consciously

thought about,

he's sliding down paths of lower

resistance.

And in Asia,

all of us accept that China will be a

rising power. Those of us who visit

China regularly, I've been there more

than 10 times in the last one year. It

is across the length and breadth of the

country.

In PPP terms, according to IMF data,

China is 40 trillion, US is 30 trillion,

Europe is 20 trillion, India is 15

trillion. That's broad ballpark figures

which is not surprising because if you

have $100 and you go to China, it will

get you much more than what you can get

in this country.

And as we study in economics, exchange

rates will in the end equilibrate around

PPP.

And once exchange rates begin to move,

then the numbers in nominal terms will

reveal themselves.

But without a doubt throughout Asia, we

are all feeling the rise of China.

And if the US

retreats,

there will be a transitional period

where

the imbalance may become very

unsettling.

I don't worry for Southeast Asia because

the instinct of Southeast Asia

are not to be airline to any one region.

Wang Gang Wu had this wonderful metaphor

that Singapore is where the mandalas of

China and India overlap.

Southeast Asia is where the mandalas of

China, India and the West overlap to

varying intensities in all seven

countries.

You take Vietnam.

When Vietnam finally withdrew from

Cambodia,

when Vanlin visited Singapore, it was

the general secretary and Liu Kuanu

hosted him dinner at Istana.

At the end of dinner,

they shook hands, but he won't let go.

He asked Liuanu to be Vietnam's advisor.

Liuanu didn't know how to answer. He

said, "I'll visit you."

And for his first three visits at one

and a half year intervals, I accompanied

him.

The minister in attendance was Vuan

and later on he became he retired as

deputy prime minister.

I had left government. He had left

government. I called on him just for a

chitchat and asked him how are your

relations with China?

He said

foreign ministry to foreign ministry as

usual troublesome

military to military stable

party to party

intimate.

Now these are communist countries the

party decides.

I suspected it as much because I knew a

Vietnamese minister who was my

counterpart for trade matters and he had

once been the private secretary to one

of the party secretary generals and

we're talking about China and comparing

nos. He said I've been to every province

in China.

I said you've been to every province in

China. I said how come? He said I was

accompanying my boss, the party domo,

the the general secretary.

These visits by the Vietnamese party

secretary are not reported in the media,

but they reflect a deeper relationship.

But is there a danger that Vietnam and

China will get so close that all of us

are threatened?

No, there's no such danger because it's

a fraught history.

I was fascinated reading the background

of uh

Bungcao, the new under secretary of the

navy.

His Chinese name is Kawa. Same name as

the the city, the port city in Taiwan,

Kawong. So it's Ka.

He was a refugee. 1971 came over

a

naval sea man. His son also joined the

Navy. He said, "We will he's committed

to making the US defense forces more

lethal.

Now you have Vietnam in the in the

party."

They say, "Oh,

give the US half a chance, they will

undermine the Vietnamese Communist

Party." They know that.

But without the US, how do they manage

China?

For sure they're not very committed to

ASEAN because without AEN they can't

have a normal relationship with China

but they want the US around

but not too close because if the US

starts using Kaman Bay as a naval

facility

China must react.

And last year they announced

that they were building fast rail

connection from Hanoi to Naning to

Kuning.

Now these are all connections

established by the French to establish

to to to to

take advantage of China's inner China's

market. They tread the Mong but

encountered the cone force between

Cambodia and Laos. So they could not be

used from Hanoi. They built two narrow

gauge railroads to Naning to Kuning.

And now these will finally finally be

replaced by highspeed rail each billions

of dollars. and they announced their

plan for highsp speeded rail connection

all the way from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minik

city.

China may build that real connection

but Vietnam will want America around. So

too

Thailand Philippines Malaysia

Indonesia, Singapore, even Myanmar.

And if the US is too rapidly in retreat,

it's very unsettling. So in a sense, all

of us want MAGA to succeed. Not MAGA is

defined by Trump, but MAGA as

American revival. So that by the time

you reach your third centennial, it'll

be more like the second centennial

than this 250th celebration.

And China itself,

what is its nature?

In Southeast Asia, we have seen China in

all its previous incarnations.

During the tongue,

it created Sri Vijaya.

It's a lucrative trade. So, so lucrative

that

the local kingdoms were vying with one

another for a share of that trade.

[Applause]

Around the year 1000 Sun dynasty,

the trollas from South India, Tanjavo,

they sail a fleet in between the Sunda

into the Sunda Straits between Sumatra

and Java.

With the monsoon behind them in one

monsoon period, they destroy Sumijaya by

sailing downstream because upstream

could not reinforce downstream. So on

both sides of the streets of Ma they

knocked out free

and for one two centuries local fuen

merchants were the warlords in Palimang

Ming dynasty we're all familiar with how

after tuan

establish the Ming 1368

by 1405 that's only 37 years by 1405

the first great fleet sailed

in rich Africa

And there were seven such great fleets

and they had a network of supply and

repair stations throughout the Indian

Ocean. The interabon

north Java

beneath a tree called the thick mountain

beneath a hill called the thick mountain

gurati.

They had a big neighbor shipyard. So the

ships which had we needed repair they

will fell thick trees slip them down and

they repair those ships.

Remnants of that era are scattered all

over Southeast Asia and though the great

emerald was Muslim

everywhere he's revered as S.

the great unac of the three treasures

and many temples named after him.

They got involved in some local

skirmishes like in Sri Lanka but

generally on missions of peace

being Muslim he did either the Umrah or

the Haj in Mecca

and all carefully recorded.

Then the Mongols threatened again. The

the Unix were put in their place.

Their attention went northwards. They

rebuilt the Great Wall and the walls

around Shian.

It's always been defensive because it's

homogeneous.

And you often get the feeling in China

that even if the rest of the world to

disappear,

China will carry on because it's big

enough. It's vertic. Oh, Jane, good to

see you. is vertic ver vertically

integrated enough.

So when they say China, I mean

Graham wrote about the Ducidian trap,

the Paliponyian war

for us in Asia,

a new dynasty rises.

Well,

it's like a cosmic event. it will rise

on the same spot and it will behave in

ways not too dissimilar from its

previous incarnations. So what do we do

first? Don't have it as an enemy. Don't

get too close. Be nice. You'll get a lot

of advant advantages if they push too

hard. Lean the other way and get your

other friends around.

Can such a China coexist

with the US?

If you if China were the Soviet Union

with the same missionary zeal as the US

thinking of the mahan strategy of naval

power then a clash is inevitable.

But I don't think China's nature is like

that. You think about the great war.

Many of you would have been to the great

war. I mean it's it's a astonishing from

horizon to horizon. You come to the next

watchtowwer to the next horizon. Some

parts are almost vertical and it goes

on. And this is just a fossil of a

living system which had command and

control,

very strict military discipline,

intelligence,

forward surveillance,

defense in depth.

Why would dynasty after dynasty invest

such vast resources

into the construction of a great wall?

Because it is

defensive in nature. Why is it defensive

in nature? Because China can only be

governed if it's homogeneous.

And if it starts absorbing large numbers

of foreigners

and not able to digest them, it cannot

be governed in the old way.

So today you find analoges of the great

wall for Hollywood movies, for capital

markets, a biological war wall during co

for education,

for any and everything that threatens

China's homogeneity. So when you watch

the September 3 parade

fair length after fail length

all looking almost alike men and women

is homogeneous.

This homogeneity is why when the Chinese

leave China

and they are in Singapore, Malaysia or

elsewhere they try to avoid politics

because

because they're used to behaving. We

have a strong emperor.

You f afo you

you lose your head.

So it's it's a deep Chinese instinct. My

mother was from China.

She left when she married my father age

of 19 from Shanto.

And we learned at home that when foreign

friends come, you you kind of begal them

with an excess of hospitality more than

you would ever give to your own people

and then

send them off

because they are threatening. You see,

it is best managed that way. Which is

why when you visit China,

well now they're stricter Mai and the

number of dishes you get. But the

hospitality is always there. You you're

made to feel special. Even you're from

Singapore or Brunai or Laos, you're a

small country. They give you better

treatment. We get better treatment in

China than we get in Berlin or in Paris

and Washington.

I mean to western power we are small

fry. But to the Chinese, small fries,

big fries, all fries. So but of course

you know

every other year they have this big

summit with African leaders over 50 of

them and sitting people meet all of them

five minutes but to make sure that

everyone's everyone is given face

and China itself

like a big tree cannot grow to the

skies.

I made a speech in Harvard once when I

was here on Estra Voggo Fellowship

that China is like a big California

redwood is adding

feet every year but one day you'll stop

growing and one day

the tree will fall

and the entire forest will hear it and

many things will be scattered

and after an equally long period a new

sapling will grow on the same spot

and be a new cycle. The Chinese know

this. So in their most important classic

the eating the book of change they know

that nothing lasts forever that if you

have arrived at the pinnacle the only

way is down.

So in the hexoggrams

there's one you you don't want to be all

six full

bars. You always want to be five full

bars and one still

broken. You're still on your way up

because the moment you are full

then the decline begins.

I don't think

they don't internalize this.

When victorious

Roman generals went back to Rome and had

this ticket parade, the slave will

whisper momento mori. Momento mori.

In the Chinese mind, there's always

mmentoto mori.

It will not last.

Therefore,

don't hasten the decline by excessive

action.

Now,

that's my view of China. Others more

detached may say, "You're too

optimistic."

Well, history is a guy,

but never

completely a repetition.

So we watch there'll be a trial of

strength between us and US and China for

maybe two three more decades you know

where they be pushing each other and

then taking a measure of each other. I

think an equilibrium is possible but for

Southeast Asia

an equilibrium is desperately

important for us. So I tell American

friends if you come to Southeast Asia

and you ask us to choose between China

and the US

we will be very loaf to choose

but there are some journalists who will

press me say no no no no let's come down

to it you're forced to a choice

where do you jump I said well if it's

today for Singapore I jump on the US

side because that's where the bread is

buttoned but 20 years from now I think I

jump on the Chinese side because it's

where the bread will be buted and and

when the crossover point will be. It

depends on what's happens in the US and

what happens in China and I don't

believe that the view is that different

in other parts of Southeast Asia.

So if the US doesn't force the choice

confronted with the prospect of a rising

China and you can see the accounts

growing

of course the US will be welcome

everywhere.

And in a strange way

Trump by his actions

is bumbling into what Kissinger has long

recommended strategically that the best

US strategy is to move closer to every

other poll. Then in every part of the

world you are the vital balancer

between Armenia and Aabai, between India

and Pakistan, between China and Japan.

Sometimes you benefit from the quarrels

but you lean a little one way or the

other. You maintain stability. It's like

Tai Chi. You know in Tai Chi get into a

balance point then with a with a minimum

of effort you achieve a maximum result.

But if you can delivered

in one direction or another,

that effort will in turn destabilize

you.

So the US like hedrianos will have to

retreat some

but consolidate around

a firmer base.

It may mean that bases will have be

closed in many parts of the world and

Europe will grow more autonomous.

But Europe will always be close to the

US for civilizational and cultural

reasons.

And India, there was a time when India

thought it could use the US against

China. The US thought it could use India

against China. Then Ukraine war

happened.

There was no meeting of minds

on Ukraine or on Pakistan. So it's an

adult relationship. We get along for as

long as we benefit each other

but we don't live together.

How can it be otherwise for India? It's

such a vast polity tremendous sense of

itself. It's not China.

Last night I was at Matasan

for dinner. This afternoon I had lunch

with uh Sugata Bos and we're talking

about Bengali politics and Rana is also

Bengali he told me and we were talking

about Trinamu and Mamatab Banerjee

the Bengalies have a sense of themselves

which is different from the Tamils or

the Maharashtrans or the Punjabis

you don't find the same

heterogeneity in China there are

differences

but far less than the differences you

find in Europe or in India. So the polls

are not all the same. They're different.

It's going to be a messier world. But

it's a world where we have to be more

respectful of one another.

Restrain from trying to make others like

us

and look after each other's interests.

It will not be easy for the US to do

this because it

it moved from ocean to ocean and it went

beyond the ocean.

And when the Americans saw what the

Europeans were doing

in China, there was a guilty conscience.

So many of the reparations went back

into the construction of hospitals and

academic institutions. They felt that it

was wrong to exploit China like that.

And China for the 80th anniversary of

the end of the war invited

families of American flying tiger

pilots. And recall what Stillwell did at

a time when China was in desperate need

of American help.

Is that future possible?

I think it's possible.

It will take time

but it's worth doing because

if it breaks

if American revive itself and countries

do not know their limits

it will be a much uglier world. Can you

imagine an institution like Harvard

that

crack in the ground will split us in

different ways throughout this area.

So, I'm I'm here. I hope to have a

discussion. Maybe you you think I'm too

idealistic, but as Jane Goodau said in

her

postumous remarks,

never lose hope. Thank you.

[Applause]

Yeah, thank you George. You've given us

a lot to think about. Hope certainly I

tend to agree with you uh in terms of

uh China and its approach. I don't see

it as an existential threat in that

sense. I tend to agree with something

that Jessica Chen Weiss once said that

what it really is is a disgruntled

stakeholder that has benefited

significantly from the con global order

but of course it wasn't part of the

decision maker that set that up and

that's why it often had sort of rough

edges. Um,

one thing I wanted to pick up on though,

um, and I agree with you that, and when

I travel in Asia, you get the same

message. We don't want to choose between

America or China. And you see that very

strongly as you said in Vietnam.

But as a number of observers have said,

we have increasingly an economic Asia

that has China at its core and a

security Asia that despite uh actions by

President Trump uh still relies on the

United States of America at the core.

The one thing I wanted to ask you about

though

is that it seems to me technology is

going to be disruptive in terms of that

balance. And what I mean by that is the

United States, America and China are

taking very different approaches to the

technological development which I think

are going to have huge geopolitical

consequences.

The US uh tends to focus on AGI,

breakthrough technologies.

Um and to combat China, it's relying

primarily on tariffs and constraints

trying to stop uh technology being

exported.

China by contrast though is much more

focused on adaptation and building

technological ecosystems, integrated

systems which it then can export to

other nations.

So what we see or what I see

increasingly across parts of Asia is

that China is beginning to dominate

supply chains in the region. is

beginning to increasingly uh dominate a

lot of the technological infrastructure

whether that's 5G deep sea cable

networks and so on and that I think um

is putting it in the place of dominating

the technologies of the future and so my

question to you then related to that is

whether that will undermine the US

dominated security or in Asia will the

20 years you're talking about when maybe

I lean towards China rather than US.

Will that come sooner because of that

technological advance of those

ecosystems of China?

>> Well, whether it will come soon or later

depends on what

happens inside the US and inside China

like the US in an earlier period. What

China does is principally for itself.

>> Mhm.

>> And only secondarily for the world

outside.

And it was so for American companies and

MNC's. They optimize first for

themselves and only secondarily outside.

And when I was at Harvard Business

School 40 years ago, that was a clear

impression to me. This is how American

companies operate because you have a

huge internal market and that mattered

much more to you than anything else.

China is like that today.

is highly competitive and because it's

homogeneous

they are capable of a finer division of

labor than anywhere else

but now there are national security

considerations you know the Chinese

understand this fully they pretend they

don't but understand it fully I mean you

take say paper technology the Chinese

kept it as a monopoly as a secret for

centuries having an advantage in it and

paper as an IT medium for recording,

storage and processing

was orders of magnitude better than

parchment or

stone tablets or palm frrons. So the

Chinese kept it as a monopoly. They had

a monopoly on silk manufacturer

gunpowder

but eventually it leashed out.

So when they complain about the US

guarding its secrets, I mean they

understand this. It's just negotiations.

The US must guard it secrets and China

will guard his secrets and you try to

learn from each other. You will spy on

each other. Uh to me that's just

part of the course. It's it's nothing

dramatic.

>> Does China seek to control global supply

chain?

Well, the belt and road initiative is

very important and they know that it's a

way of regulating

the growing economy and using it as part

of state craft. Their thinking is this

and it goes back to sunsu the art of

war.

You have to prepare yourself militarily

and you have to deploy to deter

but be very careful about actually going

to war because war yield uncertain

outcomes and wars are expensive.

So Sunsu said the greatest achievement

is when you achieve your objective

without having to fight. It doesn't mean

that you don't prepare for war. You have

to prepare for war.

So what do they do? They have the

world's biggest market every time they

organize

and if you are my friend

you're a small country you are I don't

know you do me a favor I will give you

trade benefits and you'll be so happy

China feels nothing

but you are naughty and you do something

to me which I'm not happy with I deny

you trade benefits for you it's

arringent

for China it's

I when I was chairman of Kerry logistics

we had a port in lame chabam Robert Pork

developed it as a sugar port we took it

over expanded it but one year suddenly

the sugar disappeared and we scratched

our heads how come there's no sugar

coming in it turned out that in Myanmar

the generals were seeding power

toanguchi

and they knew they have to deal with.

So they wanted to give the generals a

farewell gift

which is the back gate for sugar from

Myanmar will be open for a year without

limit. You don't have to grow the sugar

in Myanmar. You can import the sugar.

So, Thai sugar, Indonesian sugar, all

went to Myanmar, went through their back

gate tariff-free,

and the generals issuing their permits

had their golden handshake.

A year later, the sugar returned to our

port.

Did China feel anything? No. Because if

I import sugar from you, I just import

less from elsewhere. If I shut the gear,

just import more from elsewhere. It's

okay. Even durian, you know, many of you

are familiar with durian fruit. Now the

market is two billion fruits a year.

Sitting Ping tells all the AAM leaders.

And what do they do? You have a good

visit, you say the right things, you

please me, I buy more durian from you.

And Sian countries, which all produce

durian are scrambling for durian kas.

So for them

economic coercion is much more

civilized.

than military coercion. Why do we need

to fight? If I can use durian and

bananas and pineapples

and sugar to influence your behavior,

that's what they do. And is a state

craft

horned and perfected over centuries.

You know, they say, "Oh, China is

unpredictable." It's completely

predictable. When they were angry with

Australia, what did they do? your

lobsters, your wine,

then they buy them from America to make

a point to Australia. Now they don't buy

soybeans from America. They buy it from

Argentina.

So they say, "Why are you helping

Malay?" You know, you're helping him to

buy soybeans to sell soybeans to

America. That's what they do. And

they're very good at this. So when you

deal with China, they say, "Yeah, I know

that that's the way you play the game,

but okay. This is my response."

>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I think that's

important. Although I still feel that

operating on a new integrated

technological system is going to be very

different from monopolizing silk. What

you take say AI when they meet Deep Seek

open source whether the decision was

made by Leang or whether it was made by

the center the result was is open source

and all other AI

developments in China open source to me

this is China's biggest

contribution for global public goods

American strategy is

push American an AI deep stack into

every part of the world. Use it for

economic and security advantage.

The Chinese approach is I want all my

people to benefit. So I make it

available and in the process

Singaporeans benefit, La Oceanans

benefit,

Panameanians benefit.

And it's a revolution because instead AI

is not just the apps that we download to

draft speeches and to do powerpoints is

how AI is married to automation and

robotics to make lives better.

I was watching videos on Chinese

exoskeletons. You know I mean many of us

when we grow older we have problems our

knees our hips our back and then we are

on wheelchairs bit ridden family members

are all inconvenience it's a big problem

and we're growing older therefore more

and more of us are like that but with

exoskeletons

they are like your sways you know they

learn immediately you strap it on

it adjust to you say oh I can walk now I

can even skip

it's still expensive expensive. It's

going to get cheaper.

>> Mhm.

>> And within our lifetimes, and I'm 70

years old, I think even within my

lifetime, they will become commonplace.

It's made possible by AI by robotics.

This is how AI should be thought about,

not just in terms of drafting speeches

and answering exam questions, but how is

applied to every aspect of life. So,

Huawei,

they had a a catchphrase

cloud everywhere.

Then I think two years ago they changed

it to intelligence everywhere. So your

seat, your clothing, your seats,

everything you build in intelligence so

that life becomes easier and better and

not just thinking about how to replace

human beings but how to make human

beings more productive.

Yeah,

>> I have so many things I could ask you,

but I think in fairness, uh, we should

open it up for questions from the floor.

So, there's microphones here and

probably up the top. So, please, if you

have a question, come to the microphone.

If you feel comfortable, let us know who

you are, where you're uh associated

with. And remember, the question in my

memory ends with a question mark.

There's a gentleman here if you would

like to start us off.

>> Yes. Uh thank you Minister Yo for your

insightful sharing and this is Anfield

Tam and I'm from Hong Kong. I study at

Harvard Law School. So the question I

have to you minister is MAGA which is

make America great again and the great

rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Can they coexist in the modern days?

We should wish that for every country

and for every human being. This is what

life is to be abundant and to benefit

one another. So if America becomes great

again is a blessing to the world. If

China becomes great again is a blessing

to the world.

There's too much zero sum thinking which

in the end ends up being negative sum.

So I'm a full supporter of MAGA but not

a specific

policies. I mean you take say talent

lean you used to tell visiting Americans

you see China has a talent base of 1

billion people at that time was 1

billion. He said you have a talent base

of 7 billion. So all your top

institutions research institutes they

they took the best the brightest from

everywhere. All of us aspire to be in

America or wanted our children to go to

America.

But the mood today

has flipped.

How did this happen? China was like that

before. China closed its doors when

Lani's mission went there in 1793.

Brought gifts and so on. The Tong

Emperor, the official said, "We have

nothing to learn from you. All your

gifts we already have. Thank you.

Goodbye.

What did McCartney do?

He went all the way from Macau to

Chinsing to Beijing.

When he went back, he decided

on the intelligence reconnaissance. He

came on the Grand Canal. At every point,

he kept a diary. At every point, Chinese

officials kept a diary on what he was

doing. So, all these

archival records have come up.

When you turn inwards and stop learning

from others, your decline is terminal.

So what is happening in America should

be fought against by Americans.

I had lunch with uh Jeremy Weinstein,

your your dean here. He was telling me

the tough times Harvard is going

through. And I said this not to console

him. I said this because I believe in

it. I say he's in hardship. It's in

crisis that you forge your character.

In good times, everybody's here for the

party. In bad times, people disappear.

People break. But the people who remain

firm, committed to the vision, they are

the people who will build the

institution for the future. So this

period for Harvard is a ch is is a

period of challenge. short time be

called B called the challenge evoking a

response and if the response is the

right response the institution will grow

and become stronger. So when I see MAGA

I said this is a huge challenge what is

the response either the US becomes

stronger or it becomes weaker it will

not stay the same.

>> Thank you uh gentlemen here.

>> Thank you. um you made this argument

that um China will not be expansionist

because of its historic homogeneity. But

of course, wars are only sometimes

fought for political reasons. They're

often fought for economic reasons.

Throughout the history of China, the

tributary system often led China to

engage in military activity outside of

its borders to maintain that system for

its economic interests. as much of

Chinese contemporary um economic

interests are ch contemporary um

militarism surround economic interests

say uh expansionism in the south uh

China Sea with islands in the South

China Sea. How um how can um regional

nations um be confident that they won't

engage in um wararmongering activity

when both the history and the current

politics uh seem to point in the other

direction? Well, if you're Vietnam,

you've had bitter experiences in the

past and you learn how to manage China.

In the 70s, I read Fairbanks. Uh, it was

first the great tradition, then it

became the great tradition and

transformation. And there's a chapter on

Vietnam. A new dynasty appears,

presses on Vietnam. Vietnam fights back,

a new equilibrium. Vietnam follows China

because of cultural similarity. So in

the '9s I saw a new cycle before my very

eyes being repeated.

Southeast Asia has deep memories of

China. We know China likes to say China

likes to be praised to be flattered. So

the flattery is in abundance when we go

to China. And what do we get? We get

benefits. Tributary is the wrong

translation

is to pay respect

in response to which you enjoy China's

larger jazz. It is not the tributary

which Dub Brnik paid to the Ottoman

Sultan in order to keep Venice at bay.

That was protection money.

So when we use the term tributary in

western context, we think of it as

protection money. It's the opposite. You

give China some trinkets, you get back

gold. That's how it was. That's why

Southeast Asian countries competed with

one another, real merchant, Japanese

merchants for tokens to trade in China.

It comes back to what I said earlier

that they use their market, their

economics to control behavior.

But of course, in the border regions,

there will be ski skirmishes in Nepal,

in in in Vietnam, in Myanmar. But it's

not really to gain territory. It's it's

to just to

domesticate neighbors. That's what they

do.

>> Uh is the lady up there, do you have a

question?

>> Uh yes.

>> Hi. Thank you very much. My name is

Kathy. I'm a second year master in

public policy student here at HKS. Uh my

question is regarding the four global

initiatives that Shinp announced and

most recently the global uh governance

initiative right before the general

assembly of UN this year. Um in your

assessment what is China's endgame in

its expansion of global influence? Do

you think China is uh trying to replace

the US as the global hedgeimon or is it

some other um goals in in the mind?

>> He wants to be respected. He wants to be

seen as a superior civilization.

Kissinger was once asked, I'm

paraphrasing him, what if China wins?

Then China will become the teacher of

the world.

Which is of course is calling to the

rest of us.

But this how they see themselves. I have

a long history. I have all this

philosophy.

When I'm good, I'm very good. And then

you will be in awe when you come and you

will behave naturally.

That's how they view themselves.

Will they provoke war and bully people?

They do bully and we will we have been

bullied in Singapore. But my advice to

those who are being bullied is they

always have a reason and they always

leave a letter.

So first know what was the reason which

caused them to act in this way and look

for the ladder

in that thinking.

Never paint an opponent to a corner

because he's loose loose he'll fight you

back. So save face give him a ladder to

climb down and then when relations are

established don't talk about the past

again. Just talk about good things.

That's the way they behave. I think we

have time for one last uh question

before we have to wrap up. Please.

>> Evening minister, professor. My name is

Marvin. I'm from Singapore and I'm a

student from uh Kennedy Schools meet

career masters in public administration

and Mason fellow program. I have one

question for the minister. uh given the

current geopolitical landscape other

than being welcome to our guests, is

there any other way that small countries

like Singapore and those in Southeast

Asia can be more proactive to try and

work towards an equilibrium in the

Western Pacific?

>> I think for small countries, this is a

very dangerous period because the ground

is shifting and is uh crystallizing to

multipolarity

and multipolarity means instability

because it's dynamic. So if you are a

small country, you have to be very

alert. Uh very it's like a small mammal,

you know. You look at a squirrel, you

look at a mouse, it's never at ease. His

whiskers, his ears always always fidgety

because you never know where from where

the danger comes or when it comes. And

if it comes, jump. So if you're a small

country,

never look at your own navl. You'll die.

Be alert. And then find safety in

numbers. Never be alone in a room

with someone much bigger than you are.

So move away from closed spaces. Move

into an open space. And for us in

Southeast Asia, our best insurance is

Azan because it's 10 countries. It's got

enough girth. We're friendly to

everybody. We're convenient platform.

And if we are forced into a difficult

position,

hide behind an AAN position.

There's safety in numbers and expect

that the world is changing. That global

institutions once established by the

Americans are not being undermined by

the Americans, but we still need them

however pattered they are. But build

regional structures and build structures

which can flex as the ground shakes.

Well, we could obviously carry on for

much of the evening, but I'm afraid

we're beyond uh the bewitching hour. So,

please join me in thanking very much our

speaker this evening for a wonderful

presentation. Thank you.

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