2025: The Year in Charts | Charlie Bilello | Creative Planning

Hello, hello, everyone. Welcome back to the Week in Charts. Charlie Bellello here. Happy New

Year, everyone. Special edition today, the Year in Charts 2025 edition. If you're watching this on YouTube, take a quick moment and hit that subscribe

edition. If you're watching this on YouTube, take a quick moment and hit that subscribe button for all the latest content in 2026. Today, just one thing on the docket, the charts and themes that tell the story of 2025. So let's begin with the great unknown. And this is really how we start every single year. a clean slate

great unknown. And this is really how we start every single year. a clean slate the book has not been written the stories have been yet to be told and that causes a lot of hope and promise and the idea that anything is possible you wipe the slate clean from the prior year but that also causes people

to have some fear and anxiety because we don't know what that future will bring whether it's going to be calm or chaotic and oftentimes a combination of the three and that's exactly what we saw in 2025 but it didn't start out that way started out pretty benign here if we're looking at February 19th a snapshot of the market we had the S&P 500 hitting its third all-time high of the year so

building upon 2024 which was really a banner year for the markets 57 all-time highs and if you just looked at the S&P 500's performance here on February 19th not even too months into the year he'd say this is pretty good we're looking at four and a half percent return less than two months very low volatility so

it seemed like perhaps it was going to be smooth sailing once again for the markets but very quickly the narrative changed when we saw the tariff tantrum part two so if we're looking at the market here in early march just a minor pullback. And this happens multiple times every year. What we saw was the S&P

minor pullback. And this happens multiple times every year. What we saw was the S&P 500 had given back its gains, but nobody was predicting what would happen next. No

one was predicting these sharp declines that we would see. And really they accelerated to the downside after this Liberation Day tariff announcement which we saw huge huge rates tariff rates being applied to many more countries than people expected and the rates were much higher than expected and when were those tariff rates

set to begin well about a week later on april 9th so in between april 2nd liberation day and april 9th you just saw extreme volatility you actually saw the s p 500 go into its second fastest bear market in history. It was

a 21% decline from that February 19th high to the April 7th closing low. But what we saw on April 9th was an announcement that changed

closing low. But what we saw on April 9th was an announcement that changed everything. You had essentially the market down in a bear market,

everything. You had essentially the market down in a bear market, and it was waiting for someone to say these Liberation Day tariff rates are not going to be in effect and that's exactly what happened. So at that point in time, it was the fourth worst start to a year in history. We'll talk about

later how the year ended, but it was a 15% down year for the S&P 500 as of the close on April 8th. And when I did a poll on April 8th asking people, will the U.S. economy fall into recession?

67% of people said Yes. So two out of three people were thinking the economy is going to go into recession. That's a pretty high number without any economic data points to show that just people thinking this is going to cause a recession. So a lot of fear and anxiety. Another way to look at it

a recession. So a lot of fear and anxiety. Another way to look at it is to look at the volatility index, the VIX, which actually closed above 50 on April 8th, which really outside of financial crises and recessions in 2020, the COVID recession, we really haven't seen that historically. And even though I

posted this that very day, showing that the returns are pretty good looking out one to five years, everybody in the comments section was saying this time is different.

We're not going to see the bounce back this time around. So needless to say, sentiment was very, very bearish. If we're looking at a snapshot on April, early April here, this is one sentiment poll, the AAII sentiment poll, which pulls individual investors every week, 62% of them were in the bearish camp. And

looking back historically, this poll goes back to the 1980s. What I pointed out at the time is there were only two times in history where this was more bearish than it was in early April. That was March, 2009, the global financial crisis, the week of the lows, stock market lows back then, and then October, 1990, which was

also a bear market and a recession for the economy. But other than that, you'd never had seen sentiment this bearish. And of course, that brings us to tacos and turnarounds. So I alluded to April 9th, what had happened? Well, President

turnarounds. So I alluded to April 9th, what had happened? Well, President

Trump tweeted out, I think some people were expecting this, but perhaps not this soon.

What he essentially said is throw everything out that they put on those charts and We're going to pause this for 90 days. We're going to bring those rates down to 10% for everybody except for China. That set off an unbelievable rally that day. Nine and a half percent was the third biggest one-day rally for the

that day. Nine and a half percent was the third biggest one-day rally for the S&P 500 since 1950. You can see the other dates on here before the April 9th gain. Only two days in October 2008 or bigger in terms of one-day

9th gain. Only two days in October 2008 or bigger in terms of one-day gains. And looking forward, at the next few months what would happen was time and

gains. And looking forward, at the next few months what would happen was time and again we would see the tariff announcement, the tariff threat, and then a few days and sometimes even a few hours later a 180 degree reversal with them being paused or not put into effect or exemptions, exceptions, and the market

each and every time it would have a sell-off on the initial news and then a bigger rally back thereafter. And this became known as the taco trade, which stands for Trump always chickens out. I don't think he particularly cared for that acronym, but that seemed to play out. And again, and again, as traders got wise to this, what you started to see was the S and P 500 declines on the tariff

announcements would be lower and then pretty much non-existent once you got to late June. At late in late June, All of the fears that had existed over tariffs in April and at the April lows were gone. The S&P

500 had fully recovered from its losses up 28% off of the April 7th intraday low and it would actually hit a new all-time high. And what

we saw... during this period of time was an epic crash of volatility. So looking

at that fix, the volatility index, which we talked about had closed above 50, a very rare situation. Well, over a 12 week period following that extreme spike in the volatility index, it actually crashed more than it ever did in history. It actually went down 64%. And you could see that more easily on this

history. It actually went down 64%. And you could see that more easily on this chart here, where it peaked at over 60 intraday, on April 7th of 2025, and it would actually go all the way down to 16, 12 weeks later. And in terms of market comebacks and recoveries, in terms of bear markets, I'm

later. And in terms of market comebacks and recoveries, in terms of bear markets, I'm listing all of them since 1950 here. And what happened here is we had a recovery from the low, so those April lows, to hitting a new high in June of less than three months in terms of hitting a new total return high for

the S&P 500. And looking back at history, that was the second fastest recovery that we've ever seen. Only in the early 1980s did we see a faster recovery at slightly under two months. So second fastest bear market, but also second fastest recovery. in history for the US equity market. And if we talk

fastest recovery. in history for the US equity market. And if we talk about central banks in 2025, really one word would be a way to describe it. For the most part, it was a wave of easing. Easing would be the

it. For the most part, it was a wave of easing. Easing would be the word that I would use here. And you can see here, I summarized all the major global central banks. What did they do in 2025? And you can see Turkey, Russia, Argentina, Mexico, New Zealand, the UK, Canada, Eurozone, US, of

course, everybody cutting. You have two exceptions here, Bank of Japan, hiking rates, but hiking rates from extremely low levels. They had negative interest rates for a long time and really only just normalizing here and Brazil. But with the exception of those two, everyone else easing policy, you could see that in the table here, almost everybody cutting

rates in 2025 and by sizable amounts, not just one cut, multiple cuts for many countries. The US Central Bank, the Federal Reserve ended up cutting rates 75 basis points during the year, a little bit more than expected. So the

markets were expecting 50 basis points of cuts at the start of the year. They

did one more cut than that. And that brought the total amount of cuts since September 2024 to 175 basis points. So the Fed funds rate ended the year at a range of 3.5 to 3.75%. You can see here is the second year of cutting rates and that followed the fastest rate hiking cycle that

we had seen since the early 1980s. And if you listen to the central bank, you listen to the federal reserve, the press conference, why were they easing policy even though inflation remains above their target, and accumulative inflation, as I'll talk about in a little bit, much higher than the feds target while they were talking mostly about

the labor market the weakness there and talking about how they're focusing on their mandate of maximum employment. So if we look at the unemployment rate here, you can see it did move up a little bit in 2025 up to 4.6%. That was

the highest we've seen since 2021, still well below the historical average of 5.7%. But there were many other signs of labor market weakness as well. One

5.7%. But there were many other signs of labor market weakness as well. One

would be simply looking at the payroll data. The last four readings that we've gotten, payrolls have averaged 10,000 jobs per month. a significant reduction from where it was a year earlier. So the Federal Reserve decides to cut 75 basis points because of this labor market weakness, but essentially saying while they're doing that,

that they're going to ignore for now inflation that has averaged nearly 4% per year since the start of 2020. So the Fed has a target of 2%. and we've

annualized in terms of CPI at 3.9% since the beginning of 2020. So by cutting rates, despite this persistently high inflation, what the Fed is essentially saying is we're going to ignore this inflation for the time being, and we're gonna ignore the cumulative effect of inflation. What I'm showing here is many categories of price

increases over the last five years. And the Fed is very dismissive of using any type of cumulative basis in terms of inflation, it really only wants to focus on the last 12 months. But even if we look at the last 12 months, inflation rate is 2.7% above their target, but their argument is it's going to eventually come

down to 2% and therefore easing is warranted. In terms of the Fed's balance sheet, we saw a big transition at the near the end of the year. They ended

quantitative tightening in terms of their balance sheet at the end of November. And right

away, they announced a new quantitative easing program where they're going to buy $40 billion of treasury bills per month. So what we saw from the, uh, The peak in 2022 to the low at the end of November in 2025 was a 2.4 trillion reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. And really they were just letting the securities that

they had purchased roll off. And now we're transitioning back to a quantitative easing where the Fed is essentially printing money and going out and buying assets. They're

starting with treasury bills, but my belief is that some point in 2026, they're going to announce a broader buying program, buying loan, longer term treasury securities as well. And if we look at the year by year changes in terms of

as well. And if we look at the year by year changes in terms of the Fed's balance sheet, you could see it had been four straight years here of balance sheet reduction. And just like the last time we saw four straight years, what was that followed by balance sheet expansion? So 2026, unless the Fed changes its policy, we're going to see a higher balance sheet for the Fed. The question really

is how much are we going to see? Let's talk about the national debt situation.

So many different surprises in 2025, but one of them that wasn't a surprise, everyone expected and actually happened was the national debt ended up going up and going up by a lot. So what we saw was a 2.3 trillion increase in terms of the national debt during the year. And really all of that transpired after

the debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. So what we saw was a $2.3 trillion increase on top of a $2 trillion increase the year before. So we're racking up these multi-trillion dollar increases.

We continue to see these trillion dollar debt milestones. And my belief is we'll see $39 trillion at some point in the first half of 2026 and likely 40 trillion as well at some point. And that debt ceiling that was lifted, it was raised by 5 trillion back in July of 2025. It was

raised by 5 trillion. So we're looking at 41, a little over 41 trillion in terms of the new ceiling. I think that will be a fight once again when we get to 2027. And the reason for that is we're not significantly reducing spending. With the passage of that big, beautiful bill, spending was reduced by a little

spending. With the passage of that big, beautiful bill, spending was reduced by a little bit. but not enough to make a meaningful difference. And the tax side is really

bit. but not enough to make a meaningful difference. And the tax side is really the big question. Are we going to see the lower revenue in 2026 and later years because of these additional tax cuts that were passed? I summarized in the chart here, many different tax breaks that are going into effect over the next few years.

So that potentially could reduce the revenue coming in as well. So the projection is there's going to be more deficits in the years to come. The only question is how big Will they be? And will the Congress and the powers that be, will they only act when there's an actual crisis? And that seems to be the case. Right now, we're not in any sort of a crisis, so

there seems to be no urgency to do anything about the deficit and the national debt. But when there is actual crisis, that is when you'll see some action. The

debt. But when there is actual crisis, that is when you'll see some action. The

world strikes back. So what we saw was a phenomenal... thing in

2025 where nobody was predicting it entering the year there were 16 years of outperformance from the U.S. equity market over international stock market the longest stretch of outperformance in history and had I told you that the U.S. was

going to raise its tariff rate from 2% to 14% during the year and obviously was much higher than this before it was reduced. If I had told you that, you would have assumed that would have meant lower imports, probably a stronger dollar, and probably international stock weakness, once again, relative to the US. And of course,

none of that happened. The exact opposite actually happened. And one of the big reasons for that is that companies in the US did not wait for the tariffs to be enacted before they did their major purchases for the year. They actually front ran the tariffs by an enormous amount. I'm showing you the U.S. imports by month here.

And just an incredible front running of the tariff here occurred in the first quarter.

So what we ended up seeing was actually the trade deficit widened during the year.

We saw U.S. dollar weakness and we saw international stocks have one of their best years ever. We saw MSCI Europe up 36% emerging markets up

years ever. We saw MSCI Europe up 36% emerging markets up 34%. US still very strong with an 18% gain, but this is the biggest gap

34%. US still very strong with an 18% gain, but this is the biggest gap we saw in favor of international stocks. So 15% advantage there. We haven't seen a gap that big since 1993. So big, big reversal in terms of international stocks. And the top three countries in this global

international stocks. And the top three countries in this global ETF, list here, South Korea up 95%, Peru up 87%, Spain up 78%. You can see the US in the bottom third of reformers up 18% on a total return basis. And the question is who could have

predicted this entering the year? And the answer is absolutely no one. And that is precisely why you need to diversify because nobody can predict the future. investors partying like it's 1999. So a lot of talk during

future. investors partying like it's 1999. So a lot of talk during 2025 of the similarities between today and the dot-com bubble that was occurred in the late 1990s up until the 2000 peak. And there are a bunch of similarities. I'll talk through some here where we didn't see that reversal

that we saw in U S versus international. So starting here with the S&P versus the equal weight index, which is essentially equal weighting the 500 stocks and the S&P 500 instead of market cap weighting them. And what we saw in the last three years, so 2023, 2024, and 2025, we combine the outperformance of the

cap weighted index versus the equal weight, 34% outperformance. And we

haven't seen a spread that big over a three-year period ever. The prior record occurred from 1997 to 1999, where we saw 32% outperformance. And what you'll note here is that the following

32% outperformance. And what you'll note here is that the following period here was very favorable to equal weight here over the cap weight. One, two,

three, four, five, six, seven consecutive years of equal weight outperformance followed. that last period of cap weighted outperformance will be interesting of course to see

followed. that last period of cap weighted outperformance will be interesting of course to see what happens in 2026 then we go to small caps here looking at the russell 2000 and a huge streak of outperformance of large caps versus small caps five straight years here we're talking about so once again in 2025

large caps outperforming small caps the last time we saw five straight years of outperformance, 1994 to 1998. And what followed that was a long stretch of small cap outperformance versus large. And lastly here, talking about growth versus value.

This is simply now in unprecedented territory. So even in the 1990s, we didn't see anything this big in terms of this long of a streak of outperformance.

We're from 2017 to 2018. 25, we're talking about outperformance of growth versus value in every year except for one. That would be 2022. The rest of the year is outperforming. 2025, not a huge outperformance, but once again outperforming. We haven't

seen a stretch that of this many outperforming years for growth versus value ever and the ratio of growth value actually surpassed in 2025 surpassed the march 2000.com bubble peak you'd see here it hit an all-time high in october and then would come down a little a little bit from there so of course the question

is are we going to see a reversal in these factors here growth versus value large versus small cap weighted versus equal weight. And the big comparison people are making between now and back then is both periods had revolutionary technology. Back then, of course, it was the internet. Today it's AI, and that's driving up valuations to levels we

haven't seen since the 2000 and peak. So the CAPE ratio here in December hit a level of 40. We've only seen that during the dot-com bubble. But of course you can see here, it didn't peak at 40, it would

bubble. But of course you can see here, it didn't peak at 40, it would go even higher. So the question of course is, are we going to see earnings growth that justify this high valuation going forward? And if we don't, are we gonna see a reversion to the mean at some point? And speaking of reversion to the mean, the tech sector has not yet mean reverted in any meaningful way here. That

too surpassed its March 2000 peak. But if we're looking at the seven stocks that are called the Magnificent Seven. Absolutely no mean reversion overall as a group in 2025. In fact, their weighting grew even larger. So they

were at a record third of the index entering the year and they ended the year about 35% of the S&P 500 in terms of weight. And you can see where they were just a few years ago. were 20 of the index which means simply these stocks have been outperforming outperforming by a wide margin if we brought in it to the top 10 stocks in the s p 500 in terms of holdings

this too hit another record high in 2025 39 of the index which to me if i'm looking at this it means that diversification is more important now than ever before because if you're simply just buying the u.s large cap index, 39% of your money is in just 10 stocks. So if we're looking at the

return breakdown in 2025, it was not an even distribution. It was another year of haves and have nots. If we look at the 25 largest companies in the S&P 500, they were up an average 27%. well higher than the cap weighted returns, about 18%, equal weight was 11%. And the 25 smallest companies

within the S&P 500 were actually down an average of 13% in 2025. So one difference, 2025 versus 2024 and

2025. So one difference, 2025 versus 2024 and 2023 is the dispersion within the Magnificent Seven. So in

2023 and 2024, we saw a lot of uniformity with All of these names outperforming the S&P 500 from Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Google, Apple, and Microsoft, all outperforming the S&P and the S&P equal weight. In 2025, that was not the case. Only two out of the seven members outperformed just Google and Nvidia.

So is this a sign of a potential sea change in terms of leadership for the market? Only time will tell, but it's an interesting thing to note here. Investors

the market? Only time will tell, but it's an interesting thing to note here. Investors

are trying to parse and trying to figure out, well, who will the ultimate winners be in the AI revolution? And these bets are changing over time. but the notion that we're going to see all seven stocks outperform always and forever going forward, I think that was called into question in 2025. And it wouldn't be shocking given

where we are today to see a reversal in the next decade at some point where we see the leadership change just as it did after the dot-com bubble peak.

Let's talk about the physical digital gold diversion, something very interesting that occurred in 2025. about gold here best performing major asset class on the year 64 percent gain that was its best year since 1979 for gold so if you're wondering why everyone's talking about gold again

well that's why simply one of its best years ever 64 return and for the first time since it's 1980 bubble peak, it was really a gold bubble mania back in the late 1970s, early 1980s. Everybody loved gold. It hit an inflation-adjusted peak at that point, and it didn't hit a new high for 45 years

until this year, until 2025. But you can see it broke through that old inflation-adjusted high, and it continued to run in excess of that. And this is a chart that I often look at. Gold versus inflation, just comparing gold to US CPI, that ended 2025 at a record high as well, well above the

level in 1980 at the peak nine times CPI. We're now at 13 plus CPI. So gold, why is it higher? It's a story asset. is a lot of

CPI. So gold, why is it higher? It's a story asset. is a lot of uncertainty in 2025. That was certainly helpful in terms of all the tariff uncertainty that went on. But even as that fear subsided, gold did not lose its gains. There

went on. But even as that fear subsided, gold did not lose its gains. There

was other factors as well. The government shutdown and ended up doing well during that period. It was the longest government shutdown that we saw in history at 43 days.

period. It was the longest government shutdown that we saw in history at 43 days.

And then you have just simply a few other factors. The dollar index was actually down over 9%. that was a boost to gold and you had just the unnecessary and unwarranted in my view easing by the Federal Reserve and each time the Federal Reserve would say we're going to essentially ignore inflation that provided

another boost to gold. So lower real interest rates, lower dollar, a lot of uncertainty, all these factors driving up the price of gold not to mention the continued running of deficits and higher national debts as well. But the interesting thing is that Bitcoin often trades on many of the same narratives. And in early October, it was up

over 30% on the year for looking at the Bitcoin ETF. From there, we just saw a massive divergence go on where gold continued to accelerate and extend its gains, but Bitcoin had a pretty significant correction, actually ended the year down 6%. So if we're looking at Bitcoin, we see this almost every year, a

down 6%. So if we're looking at Bitcoin, we see this almost every year, a correction of this size was 36%. It had a 32% decline during the tariff tantrum, so really behaving Lately more like a risky asset and correlated with the stock market, but it did not recover during this 36%

correction, not recover by year end to post a positive return. And you can see that performance gap really the first year we've ever seen where gold was the best performing asset in particular year and Bitcoin was the worst. Now, people are wondering, well, why is this divergent existing? Is it simply a reversion to the mean? After all,

Bitcoin was up over 100% in both 2023 and 2024. And during

2025, it had rallied as high as 126,000. So this is just simply gold catching up and Bitcoin reverting to the mean because it had run up too far too fast. Like many questions in markets, this is unknown. We can only answer this question in hindsight, with the benefit of hindsight. So we don't know. the real

reason why this divergence exists. We can only take our best guess at it. And

by the end of 2026, we'll have some sort of an answer. Was this just a short-term blip for Bitcoin? Or was it the beginning of a bigger correction?

Something like we saw in 2022 and 2018 where it declined 78% and 84%. Let's end here with the triumph of the

84%. Let's end here with the triumph of the optimists. In early April, as we talked about,

optimists. In early April, as we talked about, 67% of people were thinking it was going to be a recession. A lot of people, economists on Wall Street, were predicting it. Here's a few different headlines. I'll just

read the last one here. JPMorgan becomes the first Wall Street bank to forecast a U.S. recession following the Trump tariffs. The recession, of course, never came. We did

U.S. recession following the Trump tariffs. The recession, of course, never came. We did

have a negative GDP print in Q1. because of actually the massive imports, which caused the imports minus exports factor of the GDP to turn this thing negative. It was actually down 0.6% in the first quarter, but the second and third quarter was simply a reversal of that factor. And so we

saw positive growth of 3.8% in the second quarter, 4.3% in the third quarter, which was over a percentage point higher than economists were expecting. So overall, no recession, the expansion continues here, 65

expecting. So overall, no recession, the expansion continues here, 65 months now and counting. And most people are expecting the fourth quarter to be positive.

So that mean the expansion continues for at least a few more months. We don't

have data, of course, yet on fourth quarter GDP. But if we look at the readings from the Atlanta Fed, they're predicting around 3% growth for the fourth quarter. The S&P 500 would end the year up about 18% on a year

quarter. The S&P 500 would end the year up about 18% on a year as a total return, including dividends. very strong decade so far for the s p 500 up an annualized 15 per year in this period that started in 2020 so among the stronger decades what drove the

return in 2025 two things number one have to talk about earnings 13 increase year over year including estimates from the fourth quarter but very strong earnings growth, so no impact yet from the tariff situation. Margins expanded, hit a record high in the third quarter, so

very strong growth in terms of earnings. And once again, you had multiple expansion, not as big as the prior year, but still multiples expanded. The S&P 500s P-E ratio ended the year at 26, which was 40% above the historical median. You could see here another year of multiple expansion, that third in a row

median. You could see here another year of multiple expansion, that third in a row for the S&P 500 where its price gains outpaced its earnings gains. In terms of the credit markets, a lot of high expectations in the credit markets, which means that credit spreads, tightened credit spreads at various points during the year, hit their

lowest levels in a long, long time, investment grade spreads, moved down at one point during the year to the lowest levels since 1998, and high yield credit spreads, lowest levels since 2007, and they ended the year at pretty benign levels compared to their historical average, which simply means investors in the credit markets very much not pricing

in any higher rates of defaults or any risk of a recession at this point in time. In terms of the bond market, what we saw, was pretty much everything

in time. In terms of the bond market, what we saw, was pretty much everything higher with the exception of long duration, zero coupon bonds, which we saw longer term treasury yields move higher, and that would be the reason for that. But

overall bond market, pretty strong year here, 7% gain for the ag. And we're looking at emerging markets. So similar to international outperformance in the stock market, emerging market, local currency, number one, Emerging market sovereign debt, so US dollar denominated bonds, number two up 14%, and emerging market high yield, number three up 9%. You can see

US high yield outperforming the ag by a little bit because of the higher yields there, and a little bit of spread tightening, but very strong year for the bond market overall, 7% gain, best year for the bond market since 2020. And so it's slowly recovering, coming out of the big drawdown that it had here in 2021, 2022,

the biggest drawdown in history for the bond market. And so far, still been a terrible decade for the bond market, up less than 1% per year, but certainly the last few years, much better. And the reason for that is very simple. Yields are

much higher today than they were in the few years prior. So we had the lowest yields in history in 2020, and that set off the longest average bond bear market in history, longest period of drawdown for the bond market history. We're still

in a drawdown about 2% off of the high, but the last few years been much better because yields have risen. So we end the year with the treasury yield about 4% in terms of the 10 year. And that historically has been a pretty good approximation of what bonds will do over the next seven years, but no indication how bonds will do in the next few months or next year. That all is

dependent on the direction of interest rates. If we look at the 60-40 portfolio at the end of 2022, many headlines saying 60-40 is dead. The reason they were saying that, you can see here the return, it was down 16%. You had the worst year for the bond market in history that year, dragging the return higher. So stocks

and bonds were both down that year big, which is, really hasn't happened before in history. So 60-40 is dead. And what of course happened over the next three years,

history. So 60-40 is dead. And what of course happened over the next three years, well, wasn't dead at all, up 18% in 2023, 15.5% in 2024, and 14% in 2025. And if we're talking about seven years, last seven years, looking at stocks, bonds, 60-40, you could see here the

enormous gap between stocks and bonds, rarely been this high in history.

talking about 18% gain for the US stock market over the last seven years. That's

the highest we've seen since 2001, while the bond market's done about 2% per year.

And so over 90% of this return, the 60-40 return, which is very strong, 11.6% per year, has come from the stock side. And the bond side going forward should produce more because yields are higher. So we saw the lowest yields, Lowest returns in history in terms of the bond market was actually even went slightly

negative on a seven year basis for a little bit over here. But now we're gonna slowly get back to a more normal range, I would say, as long as yields stay at these current levels. So lower the bond yields, lower the returns, higher the bond yields, higher returns. Bond math, much easier than stock market math. Stock market

math is highly dependent on valuations, valuation changes, sentiment, what's going to drive those things. That's very hard to predict. The bond market, much more simple. It just comes down to the starting yield. And over time that outweighs

more simple. It just comes down to the starting yield. And over time that outweighs pretty much everything else. If we're talking about sectors within the S&P 500, 100% were positive. during 2025. So very strong year across the board, but you could see big gap in terms of sector performance technology

leading the way. XLK ETF 25% return while defensive consumer staples up one and a half percent. If we're looking at records here, this is the one I've been talking about and pointing to the Dow Jones industrial average hit an all time high. in 2025, hit 19 of them in fact. And this was

the 13th straight year where the Dow has hit at least one all time high.

We have this chart going back to 1900 showing you the all time highs by year. Why this is such a meaningful record? Well, the longest streak

year. Why this is such a meaningful record? Well, the longest streak before this period of time was 1989 to 2000. Of course, that was a huge, huge run for the equity markets. Now we've surpassed that. Even this record that seemed like it was insurmountable, at least probably did back in 2000, but we've

passed that with at least one all-time high in every year for the last 13 years. And as I'm talking right now, in 2026, we're at all-time highs

years. And as I'm talking right now, in 2026, we're at all-time highs again for the Dow. So this is going to be 14 years straight, which is why I always say, records are made to be broken. If you look at the Dow in terms of its components, 23 out of 30 positives, so way more positive

than negative. Caterpillar, number one stock, interesting that Intel was booted from the

than negative. Caterpillar, number one stock, interesting that Intel was booted from the Dow back in 2024, and had it been in the Dow, it would actually have been the best performers up over 80%. Who did it replace? Who is its replacement?

NVIDIA here up 39%. Still pretty strong return, but lower than Intel, something we see pretty often, in fact, in terms of the Dow, by the time you remove the stock from the index, often has a bounce. If we're talking about the S&P 500 leaders here, many stocks with incredible returns. Number one stock in the index, SanDisk, up

559%. You can see, Many of these names here will be

559%. You can see, Many of these names here will be familiar, but many of them won't. So the leaders in any given year, totally unpredictable. Nobody knows if this list is going to look, what's going to look like

unpredictable. Nobody knows if this list is going to look, what's going to look like for 2026, but you could be sure there's going to be winners and losers. Hopefully

it'll be another year like this year where there's more winners than losers. If we

look at the asset class table that I like to put out every single month here. What we're looking at here is the 2025 column gold best performing

here. What we're looking at here is the 2025 column gold best performing major asset of the year. Bitcoin only one in the negative territory. So 90 for the third straight year, only one major asset down gold, gold being number one, Bitcoin being at the bottom of the list has never happened before in

all the years that we've been tracking it here. So 95% of asset classes, positive stocks, bonds, preferred stocks, everything which growth value, everything doing pretty well in 2025. The S&P 500 would end the year hitting 39 all-time highs. That builds on the 57 that we hit in 2024.

all-time highs. That builds on the 57 that we hit in 2024.

So another very strong year for the S&P 500. If we look at what the strategists were predicting at the start of the year, We're saying the S&P 500 on average would end the year around 6,600. And it actually ended the year over 6,800.

It's over 200 points higher than the average strategist. Only a few strategists had higher targets than where the S&P 500 ended. And in terms of comebacks, this is right up there with the biggest comebacks in history. As I said before, fourth worth start to a year in history for the S&P 500 was down 15% as of

April. eighth 66 trading days into the year. But a bad start, as I

April. eighth 66 trading days into the year. But a bad start, as I said at the time, does not mean a bad finish. And that was certainly true this year. 37% rally to end the year. This is the price return, 16% gain.

this year. 37% rally to end the year. This is the price return, 16% gain.

If you add dividends, around 18% total return for the S&P 500. So all in all, it was a triumph of the optimists. Those are the charts and themes that told the story of 2025. What comes next? Well, we don't know. It's a

clean slate. It's an empty book. As prices change throughout 2026, the story and the narratives will change as well and will fill in this book that you see right here. Where will the S&P 500 end 2026? How about the 10-year treasury yield? Where's crude oil headed? Is gold or Bitcoin a better investment today? How

treasury yield? Where's crude oil headed? Is gold or Bitcoin a better investment today? How

many times will the Fed cut interest rates in 2026? Will inflation finally move down to the Fed's 2% target? And when will the economy fall into recession? These are

all the questions people are asking today. And the answer, if they're being truthful, is I don't know. I don't have the answer to these. Nobody does. Nobody knows what the future is going to bring. As Lao Tzu once said, those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge. So what's the alternative to playing

don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge. So what's the alternative to playing Wall Street's prediction game? Well, simply weigh the evidence as it comes. Invest based on probabilities, never certainties. Be forever. humble and thankful for what you have and leave the predictions to those whose job it is to entertain. That's the best

you can do in this fickle business of investing. Try to find the right path for you and stick with it long enough to reap the enormous benefits of compounding. So for 2026, as usual, I predict one thing and one thing only.

compounding. So for 2026, as usual, I predict one thing and one thing only.

You will see many, more surprises ahead for that is the nature of markets if we can help you on your path to wealth reach out to us at creative planning go to creativeplanning.com charlie schedule a call or a meeting at creative planning we're in all 50 states so we likely have a location right near you

over 385 billion in assets under management and advisement and we're here to help so reach out to us today creativeplanning.com slash Charlie. Thank you so much for joining me on this special edition called the Year in Charts. Have a happy new year, everyone.

And I wish you and your families all the best in 2026.