馬斯克 2026達沃斯訪談：2026年底，AI將超越人類？｜中文翻譯｜中文字幕｜原音中字

That was not a That was not a large applause. Start again.

applause. Start again.

>> That's better. Thank you.

>> Yeah, we're going to make this interesting.

>> How many How many quotes are you going to want that are going to be after this session?

Uh I don't know. I mean

five.

>> Okay.

So uh good afternoon everyone. It's

great to see everybody here. Uh it's

been an amazing week here in Davos. Um

hopefully everybody saw that we are having conversations here. Hopefully everybody agrees. There

here. Hopefully everybody agrees. There

are some conversations that we may disagreed. There's many conversations we

disagreed. There's many conversations we may have agreed. But through those conversations and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today um the world economic forum is here to

have those conversations to have understandings and also resolution. So

um uh it's an important component of who we and what we are and I'm thrilled uh to have Elon Musk here. Um

he came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So, uh, thank you Elon.

>> Uh, you're most welcome.

>> Yeah.

>> Um, >> I mean, I heard I heard about, uh, I heard about the formation of the the Peace Summit, and I was like, is that is

that P I E C? Uh,

you know, little piece of Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela.

>> We We got one.

>> All we want is peace.

>> Okay. I'm going to uh as I said, I'm a pretty proud uh CEO of Black Rockck since we went public. Um uh the compounding return of Black Rockck to

our shareholders was 21%.

Uh since Elon took Tesla uh public, his compounded return is 43%.

This is I just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans.

This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing with their countries. Imagine if a lot of

their countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon when Tesla went public and how much

return with the all the pension funds that invested side by side with Elon and the growth. So, um, a spectacular

the growth. So, um, a spectacular return. There's very few companies, well

return. There's very few companies, well I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has that compounded return. So congratulations.

compounded return. So congratulations.

Thank you.

>> It's a good measurement.

>> Well, we have an incredible team at Tesla and that's the reason. So I want to get into uh the dirt the the meaningful component about technology

the possibilities um I want to talk about AI and robotics energy space and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering engineering

discipline scale execution um and few few people if not anyone has the experience and the fortitude to

confront these issues headon not just the idea is but the execution across so many different technologies Elon and that's why I thought thought it was important for us to have this dialogue

here uh in Davos so you're presently building on AI on robotics on space on energy all at the same time when you

look across those efforts what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint >> uh well they're all very difficult technology challenges um but the

uh the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization like basically maximize the probability that

civilization has a great future um and uh to expand consciousness beyond earth.

So if you take SpaceX for example that's SpaceX is about build advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond

Earth uh to the moon to Mars uh eventually to other star systems and uh and I think we should always view

consciousness uh life as we know it as as precarious and delicate um because to the best of our knowledge we we we don't

know of life anywhere else. You know,

I'm often asked, um, are there aliens among us? And I'll say that I am one,

among us? And I'll say that I am one, but >> or you're from the future.

>> They don't believe me.

>> Okay.

>> Um, so uh, but I I I think if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. Um, and

uh, we we have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an an alien spaceship.

So I'm like I don't know. It's bottom

line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare and it might only be us. And if that's the case, then we need to do everything

possible to to ensure that the the light of can the light the light of consciousness is not extinguished because we're effectively the way I view

it is the image in my mind is of a a tiny candle in a vast darkness tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. Um and that's why it's

important to make life multilanetary uh such that if there is a natural disaster or a man-made disaster on earth that consciousness continues. That's the

purpose of SpaceX. Um

te Tesla is obviously about sustainable technology and uh and and also at this point we've we've sort of added to our

mission sustainable abundance.

So with robotics and AI um this this is really the path to abundance for all. If you say you know

people often talk about uh solving global poverty or essentially how how do we make give everyone a very

high standard of living? I I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics.

um which which doesn't mean that it is uh without its issues. I mean there's we need to be very careful with AI. We need

to be very careful with robotics. We

don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. Uh

Cameron movie. Uh you know Terminator >> he's he's great movies. Love his movies but but we don't want to be in

Terminator obviously. Um but but if you

Terminator obviously. Um but but if you have um ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it and

ubiquitous robotics uh then uh you will have an an explosion in the in the global economy an expansion in the global economy that is truly

beyond all precedent.

>> Elen can that expansion be broad? Yes.

>> Or is it narrow and how can that be created? How can it broaden the global

created? How can it broaden the global economy?

>> Yeah, it's I mean I mean a way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots um the economic output

is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots, right? Um and and

actually my prediction is in the in the benign scenario of the future that we will the robots will actually make so many robots in AI that they will actually saturate all human needs.

Meaning you won't be able to even think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point like like there will be such an

abundance of goods and services because the my prediction is there'll be there'll be more robots than people. So

>> but how do you then have human purpose in that scenario? Yeah, I mean, you know, there was nothing nothing's perfect, you know, but um

but I mean I mean it it is a a necessary um like you can't have both. You can't have work that has to be done uh um and uh

amazing abundance for all.

Um because if it's if it's work that has to be done then then then you and and only some people can do it then then you you you can't have abundance >> then it's narrow.

>> It's narrow. Exactly.

>> So um but if you if you have billions of humanoid robots and I think there will be um I think I think everyone on earth is going to have one and going to want

one. Um because uh you would who

one. Um because uh you would who wouldn't want a robot to you know um assuming it's very safe uh watch over

your kids, take care of your pet. Uh if

you have elderly parents, uh a lot of friends might mine said they have elderly parents, it's it's uh very difficult to take care of them.

>> Expensive.

>> Yeah, it's expensive and it's expensive and there just aren't enough people to take care of the there aren't enough young people to take care of the old people, >> right?

>> Um so if you if they Um, if if you had a robot that could take care of and protect an an elderly parent, I think that would be great. That would be an

amazing thing to have. Um, and and that I think we will have those things. So, I

mean, overall, I'm I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, uh, which is very cool. Um, and, uh, and and

definitely we are in the most interesting time in history. Um, I don't think there's more a more interesting time in history.

>> Can we uh can you and I reverse aging in this new history or or or are we going to see it?

>> You know, I haven't I haven't put much time into uh the aging stuff. I I do think it is a very solvable problem like like you can

I think when when we figure out what causes aging, >> I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. It's not a subtle thing. Um,

obvious. It's not a subtle thing. Um,

the reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body, you know, with some pretty much age at the same rate. I've never seen someone

with with an old left arm and a young right arm ever in my life.

>> Um, so why is that? That that means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock, >> right, >> that is synchronizing across 35 trillion

cells in your body. Um and uh you know the but there is some benefit to death by the way. It's like there's

there's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan. Uh because if you if you have if people do live forever for a very long time I think there's some risk of an oification of

society of of things just getting kind of locked in place. Um and uh

you know it it just may become um stalifying just not uh lack lack vibrancy. Um but but that that said do I

vibrancy. Um but but that that said do I think we'll figure out ways to extend life and um and maybe even reverse

aging. I think that's highly likely.

aging. I think that's highly likely.

>> I'm looking forward to that.

>> Yeah. Uh so um in the future that you talk about AI models, autonomous machines, rockets depends on massive

increases of compute, massive increases in energy, expensive energy, manufacturing scale, what are the bottlenecks to to get

there? And once again with all that

there? And once again with all that expenditures again, how can we make sure that it's broadened, not narrow?

Um I I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because uh AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can and the cost of AI

will get is already very low and it's it's plummeting every year. I mean you almost the cost of AI is almost ch meaningfully changing on a month-to-month basis.

>> There's open there's open models now everywhere. Yeah.

everywhere. Yeah.

>> Yes. very there's open models um and the open models only lag they're maybe a year behind right the the private the sort of closed models

>> um so so I I think the the the ai companies will seek as as many customers as possible which means they'll seek they'll provide AI to the world >> but the cost of getting to there the

compute the chips um the fab um the powering ing that to me what are the what are the you know those are huge

>> the limiting factor yeah I think the limiting factor for um AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power >> it's just right it's energy

>> yeah yeah um I mean we're seeing the the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially but the rate of electricity being brought online is uh

>> 3% 4% a year max >> yeah it's clear that we're we're We're for very soon, maybe even later this year, uh we'll be producing more chips

than we can turn on except for China. China China is China's growth in electricity is is tremendous.

>> They're building 100 gawatts of nuclear as we speak.

>> Uh actually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China's I believe China's

in China. So China's I believe China's production capacity on solar is 1500 gawatts a year. Um and they're deploying

over 1,000 gawatts a year of of solar.

Um now you know for continuous solar load you divide that by roughly I don't know four or five uh call it that's

around uh 250 gawatts of steadystate power um paired with batteries um and that that's a very big number that's half of the average power usage in the US

>> right >> so US US power uh usage on average is is 500 gawatt uh China just in solar just

like just in in in in solar like that can provide steady state power uh and batteries can do half of the US electricity output per year just with

solar solar is by far the the the biggest source of of of energy um and actually when you look beyond or even even even on Earth but certainly beyond

Earth u the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy this isn't important thing to consider. Um so this the sun is 99.8%

consider. Um so this the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter

is about.1% and everything else is miscellaneous. Um now even if you were

miscellaneous. Um now even if you were to uh burn Jupiter in a in a thermonuclear reactor uh the amount of

energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100% because Jupiter is only.1%. If you teleported teleported

only.1%. If you teleported teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system, the and and burnt three more Jupiters and everything else in the

solar system, the sun's energy would still round up to 100%.

>> So, it's really all about the sun. Um

and that's that's why uh one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX uh in within a few years is launching um solar powered AI satellites,

>> right? Um because the space is really

>> right? Um because the space is really the source of immense power and then you don't need to take up any room on earth.

uh there's so much room in space and you can scale to uh enormous uh I mean you can you can scale to

I think ultimately hundreds hundreds of terowatts a year.

We you and I have had these conversations before, but why don't you tell the audience, what would it take for the United States and what type of geography would it take to have that

solar field to electrify the United States? And and then let me ask a

States? And and then let me ask a question. Why aren't we doing it?

question. Why aren't we doing it?

>> Yeah. So, I mean, I guess rough way to think about it is um 100 miles by 100 miles, we'll call it I60 kilometers by

160 kilometers of of solar is enough to power the entire United States.

So, you 100 mile by 100 mile area is is I mean, you could take basically a small corner of Utah, >> Nevada, >> Nevada, New Mexico. obviously wouldn't

want it all in one place, but I'm you can it's it's a very small percentage of the area of of the US to generate all of the electricity that the US uses. Um,

and the same is true actually I mean for for Europe. You you could take a small

for Europe. You you could take a small part you could take uh relatively unpopulated areas of say Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs. So

why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in the United States?

>> Uh well there is >> as it is in China.

>> Well unfortunately in in the US the the the tariff barriers for solar are are extremely high. Um and that makes the

extremely high. Um and that makes the economics of deploying solar uh so artificially high because China makes almost all the solar um and uh and the

that >> what would it take for Europe or the US to build it commercially if it's that scale?

Yeah, I I think I think uh well, I can tell you what what we're going to do, you know, at SpaceX and Tesla was is we're we're building up um large scale solar, >> right?

>> So, the the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately are working to build to 100 gawatts a year of solar power in the US

of manufactured solar power. Um and um that'll probably take us about 3 years or something. But this that's these are

or something. But this that's these are pretty big numbers. Mhm.

>> Um and um you know I'd encourage others to the to do the same. Um

we obviously don't control the you know US tariff policy. uh but uh for for for other countries uh I would re you know

that there's China makes solar cells that are incredibly low cost and I think uh it would be worth uh doing large scale solar.

So I know you are you're going to be having a couple big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, I when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots.

>> Yeah.

>> Um, >> how quickly you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly and how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can

manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and be uh create that that abundance that you talked about?

Well, humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think uh we we we do have

quickly. I think uh we we we do have some of the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory.

um except probably later this year by the end of this year I think they'll be doing um more more complex tasks um and

and but still deployed in an industrial environment and uh and probably sometime next year I'd say that by the by the end

of next year I I think uh we'd be selling humanoid robots uh to the public. um that that's when we are

public. um that that's when we are confident that it's very high reliability, very high safety, um and the range of functionality is uh is also very high. You can basically ask it to

very high. You can basically ask it to do anything you'd like.

>> You're already seeing that in Tesla cars. This the software changes that

cars. This the software changes that you're doing and what is it every quarter now a software change that upgrades the the ability of the robot within the car.

>> Uh yes, the Tesla full self-driving software we we update it sometimes once a week. Um and um re recently some of

a week. Um and um re recently some of the insurance companies have said that uh it is actually so safe uh when where Tesla full full self-driving is so safe

that uh they're they're offering uh customers half price insurance if they if they use Tesla full self-driving in their car >> and that could be monitored by the insurance company. Can they is that part

insurance company. Can they is that part of the agreement then?

>> Yeah.

Um but I I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point, >> right? Um

>> right? Um and Tes Tesla's r rolled out uh sort of robo taxi service in a few cities and >> right

>> will uh I be very very widespread by the end of this year within the US and then we we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month.

>> Really that quickly?

>> Yeah. And then uh maybe a similar timing timing for China hopefully. I want to move to space because historically space is very capital intensive. It

historically been done by governments.

Obviously SpaceX changed the whole model. U but we've seen it slow to scale

model. U but we've seen it slow to scale and now I'm starting to see it ramping up in what you're doing and other things. Um

things. Um talk to us about the res, you know, the automation and AI how it's changing the economics in building uh and preparing

for us in operating in space.

Uh sure. Um

well the key breakthrough that tell that's the the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full reusability.

Um so no one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket which is very important for the cost of access to space. Um we've achieved partial

space. Um we've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage. We we've now landed the

boost stage. We we've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. Um but uh we we we have to throw away the upper stage. The upper stage burns up on

stage. The upper stage burns up on re-entry for Falcon 9. So and that that the cost of that is equivalent to a small to mediumsiz jet. So um but with

with Starship, which is a giant rocket, it's it's the largest flying machine ever made.

>> That's a rocket that you using for the idea of going to Mars, right?

>> Yeah. Mars and the moon. um as well as for uh high volume satellite stuff. So

Starship um hopefully this year we should prove full reusability for Starship which will be um a a profound

invention uh because uh the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. Um,

>> right.

>> It's it's the same sort of economic difference that you would expect that uh between say a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft. Like if you have

non-reusable aircraft. Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, that would be a very expensive flight. Um, but if you only have to

flight. Um, but if you only have to refuel, uh, then it's the cost of the fuel. And so that's really the uh

fuel. And so that's really the uh the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space uh we think

uh below the cost of uh of freight on aircraft.

Uh so you know under under $100 a pound type of thing easily. Um, so it it it makes

uh putting large satellites into into space very low, very very cheap. Um, and

then when you have solar in space, you you get uh five times more effectiveness, maybe even more than that than solar on the ground because it's it's always sunny.

>> It's cold.

>> It Yeah, it's it's it's always Well, it's always sunny, so you don't have a dayight cycle or seasonality, right, >> or weather. Um and you get about uh 30%

more power in space uh because uh you don't have atmospheric attenuation of the power right >> the net effect is solar is five times

more uh any given solar panel will do five times more uh energy in space than uh on the ground.

>> Is there any capacity in doing that and and then taking that power and bringing it back to earth? Is there any way of doing that or or you're just taking that power and utilizing it for the needs

like building um uh AI data centers in the space?

>> I I I think the the case it's it's a no-brainer for building uh AI solar powered AI data centers in space. Um

because as you mentioned it's it's also very cold in space. If you're if you're if you're in the shadow uh then it's it's very cold in space just 3° Kelvin.

So you just have you have solar panels facing the sun and then uh a uh radiator that's like point like pointed away from the sun. Um so it has no sun incident

the sun. Um so it has no sun incident and then it's and then it's just cooling. It's a very efficient cooling

cooling. It's a very efficient cooling system. So

system. So uh net net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that and that'll be true within two

years maybe three three at the latest.

>> Wow.

So looking 10 or 20 years out um what would how would you describe success with AI or space technology and where do you see it? Is that can you are you more

certain what's going to happen in the next three years or or five or 10?

I don't know what what's going to happen in 10 years, but the rate at which AI is progressing, uh I think we

we're we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year.

Um and and I would say no later than next year.

>> Wow.

>> Um and then probably by 2030 or 2031, call it 5 years from now, uh AI will be smarter than uh all of humanity collectively.

We only have a number of minutes left, but I want I want to humanize you for a second so there's no speculation that you're piece.

>> Right. Right. I want to I mean I would frame this question by you are the most successful entrepreneur industrialist in the 21st century maybe beyond. Um I want

to so I want to really get this you know what inspired you? Who's inspired you?

What was the foundation of of your curiosity and and importantly what was the what was it was there a aha moment epiphany at any time in your life and

career?

>> Well um I mean as a kid I read a lot of science fiction sci-fi fantasy books.

>> Yep. We talked about >> and uh comic books u and I always liked technology. Uh I didn't expect to be

technology. Uh I didn't expect to be where I am today at that seems incredibly implausible. Um but uh yeah I

incredibly implausible. Um but uh yeah I was I was inspired by reading about books about the future about science fiction and uh and I guess I want to

make science fiction not fiction forever at some point turn science fiction to science fact. Um, and uh,

science fact. Um, and uh, you know, we want to have like Starfleet and Star Star Trek really for for real, like where we actually have giant

spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, traveling to other star systems. >> Be beamed up to go back to New York,

>> you know? I I'd like to just be beamed back to New York instead of flying.

>> Yeah. um

>> talk about Star Trek.

>> No, I guess my my my central I what I would call the phil philosoph philosophy of curiosity. Um I'd like to understand

of curiosity. Um I'd like to understand um the meaning of life, you know, the is the standard model of is a standard model of physics correct >> regarding the beginning of life,

beginning of existence and the end of the universe? Um what what questions do

the universe? Um what what questions do we not know to ask that we should ask?

Um, and AI will help us with these things. Um, so I'm just trying to

things. Um, so I'm just trying to understand how do we get here? What's

going on? What's real? Are there aliens?

Maybe they are. Um, and if if we've got if we got spaceships that are traveling to other star systems, uh, we may find we may encounter aliens and or we may

find many long dead alien civilizations.

But I I I'm just I just I just want to know what's going on. kind of curious about the the universe and um that's my philosophy.

>> Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime?

>> Uh yeah, I mean I would say like I you know I >> that's a long commitment I've been asked.

>> Wasn't that three years each way?

>> Uh it's 6 months.

>> Six months. That's all it is?

>> Yeah, six months. But the planets only align every every two years.

>> Okay. So, uh, yeah, I've been asked a few times like, "Do I want to, you know, die on Mars?" And I'm like, "Yes, but just not on impact."

That's a good That's a good answer.

Anyway, uh, we're out of time. I

hopefully everybody enjoyed this. Um, I

mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk. I could tell you he's a great

Musk. I could tell you he's a great friend and I constantly learn so much from him. Um, and I'm totally inspired

from him. Um, and I'm totally inspired by what he's what he has done.

I've been inspired who he is and I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future and I don't think it's such a bad future and I agree with his optimism. So

Elon, thank you. Any last words? Um

>> um well I think generally I think my last words would be I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future.

>> Good.

>> Um and and and generally I think for quality of life it is actually better to on the side of being an optimist and

wrong rather than a pessimist and right.

On that NOTE