現在的價格隻是山腳，四年牛熊週期已死！｜2026 超級週期大洗牌！#加密貨幣 #投資 #btc #web3

兄弟们 26 年已经过去将近一个月了 今年的行情你怎么看呢 要知道比特币去年一年的表现呢 是非常的不好 全年实现了负增长 并且最重要的是 按照比特币四年一周期的规律 26 年应该是一整年的熊市啊 那如果是这样 那就意味着今年是彻底没戏了 咱们此时此刻就应该立即逃顶

全部清仓出货 真的是这样吗 这里面有没有蹊跷 哎别瞎猜了 我熬了好几个通宵 把华尔街最顶级的十大机构 刚刚发布的26年展望报告 全部啃了一遍 HUZ渣打银行 汇丰Coinbase贝莱德等等等等 这些掌握着几万亿美金的巨鲸 他们的底牌都在这期视频里了 先说一下我的研究结论

看完所有人的研报 结论非常震惊 在机构的眼中 现在的这个币价可能只是一个山脚 所谓的四年一个牛熊周期 可能已经全部失效 我们现在 正处于一个机构主导的 结构性长牛前夜 如果你想知道 26年比特币能涨到多少钱 以及除了囤比特币之外 还能布局哪些赛道

能让我们翻倍资产 这期视频绝对是全网最硬的干货 一定要看到最后 首先呢我们先来解决第一个问题 那就是26年比特币能涨到多少钱 几乎所有机构的研报呢 都回答了这个问题 那我把他们的答案呢 分成了四派 激进报数派结构派 基本面实用派和冷静派

综合以上四派的言论呢 我总结了一个共识 那就是26年大概率要涨 哈哈哈而且会彻底打破历 史规律首先呢 咱们先来看最开心的 那就是激进报数派 这个派系里第一位选手 galaxy digital银河数字 他们的研报呢 是在25年12月18号发布的 在研报中呢

他们预测 27 年年底的时候 比特币的币价要达到 25 万美金啊 那今年是 26 年 26年 他们认为非常有可能创下历史新高 也就是超过去年年中的126,000 那他们的核心逻辑是说 随着货币政策的宽松和机构的入场 比特币会变成像黄金一样的 非美元对冲资产 而且呢他们还指出

现在的期权市场 其实已经在为 15 万美金一枚的比特币 做准备了 所以他们认为 26 年可能是有一些动荡 但是大方向还是得向上 激进报数派的第二位选手呢 就是渣打银行 渣打银行的研报呢 是去年 12 月份发布的 26 年比特币 他们最高呢是看到 15 万美金 那看过我之前

专门讲渣打的这期视频的小伙伴 应该都知道 渣打对比特币的预期呢 其实最近是下调的啊 要知道以前呢 他看比特币是看到 30 万美金的 那他们之所以会有这样的一个预判 核心逻辑呢是他们认为呃 比特币这样的囤币公司 也就是DAT公司的热潮会逐渐冷却 以后呢就不再是市场的主力了

但是ETF呢还是会持续的买入啊 这个买入量呢会成为新的引擎 大概率ETF每季度呢 是要买入 20 万枚比特币的 在这样的推动力下 他们认 为加密寒冬呢已经不会存在了 接下来的市场呢叫做慢牛 稳的一批 那激进报数派里面的第三位选手呢

就是UTXO management 这家的研报呢 在去年5月份就已经发布了 他们在研报中称 预计26年 机构流入资金呢 将达到 3000 亿美金 核心的逻辑呢 是他们做了一套自己的预测模型啊 这个模型非常的吓人 那么预测呢 到 26 年年底的时候 会有至少 4 个新国家和 5 个美国州

把比特币作为战略储备 这些钱进来之后 比特币 10 万大关根本顶不住 会直接引发供给侧的短缺危机 所以他们的观点呢是至少10万 那激进报数派里第四位选手呢 就是这bitwise bitwise的研报呢是上个月发布的 他们认为比特币呢 在20年将再次创下历史新高啊 跟前面的galaxy差不多

而且呢他们说 比特币的波动率将会低于英伟达 那他们的判断逻辑呢也是非常简单啊 主要也是考虑到了 ETF的资金还在持续的流入 加上宏观面呢利率又在下调 所以是一个双重的流动性叠加利好 那再加上比特币的波动率开始下降啊 低于科技股

它就会变成真正的机构资产配置标的 好那以上四家机构的预测呢 是非常的乐观 按照他们的逻辑 26 年必定是一个大涨之年 接下来呢 我们再来看一看第二梯队 第二梯队的重点不在于涨 而在于变 这个变呢也能带动大量的上涨 我们先来看一下灰度的研报 灰度的研

报呢是 12 月 16 号发布的 他们认为 26 年上半年 比特币就会创下历史新高 不仅如此 他还抛出了一个重磅的观点 那就是 比特币维持了十几年的四年周期论 今年算是被打破了 市场不再是那种简单的减半后就暴涨 哎然后呢 就来个暴跌 而是进入了 由机构资金和监管精细化驱动的

持续上升期 也就是所谓的超级周期 我们再来看一下 这个赛道的另外一个选手 21 shares 他们的研报呢 是12月份发布的 他们也认为 比特币在 26 年要创下历史新高的 并且开启一个结构性牛市 那核心的逻辑呢 大部分跟灰度是一样的 唯一不一样的呢 就是

他们认为比特币的波动率最近在下降 表现的越来越像一个成熟的宏观资产 那它越稳定 那随着全球债务危机加剧 比特币就越容易成为避险资产 以上两位呢 都认为 26 年 比特币来到了一个新的变化转折点 从一个周期性非常明显的市场资产 变成一个可以抗风险

而且稳定的长牛资产 那我们再来看一下第三梯队 这个梯队呢 主打一个基本面实用派 比特币在26年会变得非常的有用 这个门派的代表呢 主要就是A16Z A16Z的研报呢 也是去年12月份发布的 他们并没有预测具体的价格数字 而是预测了价值的流向 他们认为啊 26年之后

随着这种AI的发展 未来人们的交易行为不是自己干的 是AI帮人们去干的 那AI去交易他 们用什么交易啊 A 16 z认为 区块链就会成为AI经济的结算层 所以说未来区块链将是一个基础设施 那这个基础设施市场 是一个万亿级别的增量市场 那只要这个逻辑成立 作为底层资产的比特币

和以太坊的价值 将会被无限放大 好那这个流派的第二名呢 就是Coinbase Combs的研报呢 也是上个月发布的 并没有预测实际比特币的价格 他们对比特币的态度呢 是谨慎的乐观态度 那具体26年会是一个什么样的市场呢 他们做了一个这样的陈述 他们认为26年呢

美国的监管环境发生了巨大的改变 ETF和机构的采用呢 会变成长期的支撑力量 特别是美国在明年呢 还要批准大清晰法案 这样就会让合规资金大举入场 那这样的市场结构是个什么样子 简单来说呢 就去联想1996年互联网早期发展的时候 96年 并不像99年互联网泡沫时候那么疯狂

但是一切刚刚开始 生机勃勃 那这个阵营还有一个选手呢 就是富达 那富达研报发布的时间呢 是上上个月 研报中说 比特币面临着一个长期的范式转移 核心逻辑呢 他们强调了一个博弈论 也就是说 如果有更多的国家建立比特币储备 那其他没有建立的国家呢

就会被迫跟进 那这种国家级别的fomo害怕错过 才会是比特币接下来的巨大推动力 而且呢 他们还认为散户永远不需要慌张 因为比特币的供应量上限是不变的 它就只有这么 多所以它会一直涨 所以你任何时候买它都不会买晚了 好那再来说嘛 messari messari的研报呢 也是上个月发布的

他认为加密市场呢 会出现结构性的分化 比特币会稳坐钓鱼台 他们认为 26 年 是币圈的实用性与投机性分离的一年 比特币已经找到它的定位了 那就是数字黄金 那其他代币呢 就比较惨 他们也必须要像比特币一样 找到一个属于自己的定位 或者是证明自己的实际用途 否则就会被淘汰

他们还认为呢 26 年并不是散户的狂欢年 机构会在这一年胜出 散户可能会因为买了一些 没法证明自己的山寨币 最后哎亏一些钱 好那以上10个呢 都是看多比特币的 那我们再补充一下第11家机构的研报 这个机构呢 我称它为冷静派 它是唯一一个提到 比特币要出现大幅回调的

那这家机构呢 就是Van ECK 他们认为26年将会是一个震荡之年啊 虽然说是长线看好 但是短期震荡的过程中 比特币的最大回撤 仍然有可能达到35%左右 理由呢也很简单 他说 26年的全球流动性环境是非常复杂的 美联储在放水 日本在加息 再加上AI赛道很热

AI吸走了大量的资金 这会让加密市场的上涨之路呢 不是一条直线 非常的崎岖 好那虽然比特币在26年是看涨的 但是它再涨也涨不了 10 倍 20 倍啊 想要暴富 还得看具体的细分赛道是不是 那我就把这几千页报告翻了个底朝天 发现 各家机构的预言主打一个八仙过海 各显神通

那为了方便给大家汇报啊 我把这个预言分为3个部分 第一部分呢就是所有机构意见一致的 都看好的赛道 那第二部分呢 就是大家意见非常不统一 有人非常看好 有人非常看衰啊 那第三部分是只有一部分机构看好 另外一部分就没提的赛道 首先呢我们先来说 大家看法非常一致的爆火赛道

第一个呢就是AI agent加Crypto 这个赛道绝对是 26 年最性感的叙事 没有之一 a16z Coinbase galaxy 全部重仓押注这个赛道 那这具体是个什么样的机会 a16z在报告里面提出了一个新概念 叫KYA know your agent 以前我们讲KYC是吧 了解你的客户以后呢 别KYC了

全变成KYA 为什么呢 因为未来在链上活跃的它 根本就不是人 而是AI机器人 这些AI机器人需要帮人们去付款 他们付款用什么呢 哎Coinbase在他的报告里 直接点明了一个协议 就用这X402协议 这个协议呢 就是专门给机器人之间转账用的

它复活了HTTP402 payment required代码 机器人用它来付款 授权钱包填写代码 那这个赛道有多大呢 galaxy digital做出了一个惊人的量化预言 说 26 年呢 基于AI代理的支付 将占到base链交易量的30%以上 这个占比已经非常高了 听懂了吗 兄弟们啊 这是一个什么样的赛道

大家想象一下 就是未来在咱们睡觉的 时候咱们的AI代理 在链上 自动帮咱寻找收益率最高的矿池 直接就把咱的比特币咔 质押进去赚钱了 或者是他自己在链上扫描信息啊 看到一些不错的土狗币 他哗就给咱充进去了 翻倍之后他就夸 就帮咱自动卖出了 那这些机器人 在做买入和卖出的动作的时候 他们需要什么

需要钱包呀 需要支付通道啊 那你就想吧 这个市场大不大 那机构的结论呢 就是这个赛道非常的大 他们也会去布局 那些为AI提供钱包 和支付功能的基础设施项目 如果说刚刚的AI赛道呢 属于星辰大海啊 还没有实现 那接下来这个稳定币赛道 就是已经能在我们脚下踩到的金矿了

这个赛道也是所有机构公认的 26年确定性最高的赛道 那它的数据能有多夸张 21 shares预测 26年稳定币的供应量要达到1万亿美金 coinbase说 28 年呢 稳定币的市值要涨到1.2万亿美金 galaxy的预测更绝 他说 26 年啊 稳定币会直接贴脸 给传统银行开一个大招

全年稳定币的交易量 将超过传统银行ACH系统 那A16Z的说法呢 可谓是更狂 他说也别超过传统银行了 这稳定币我告诉你它未来是什么 它根本就不是炒币工具 它会变成整个互联网的基础结算层 这个稳定币 已经不仅仅是他们币圈的事了 什么Visa万事达卡stripe

以后呢都会疯狂接入稳定币支付 以后用户的各种需求 什么跨境汇款 电商购物底层跑的呢 可能全部都已经是稳定币了 A16Z的原话说的非常绝 他说互联网变成了银行 也就是互联网本身就是银行 那你说这个赛道有多大 那就跟互联网一样大 那这个赛道怎么赚钱啊

人家给的结论呢就是你买USDT USDC是肯定没法赚钱的 要关注这些稳定币的生态 以及那些能够把稳定币 和现实消费打通的支付协议 那galaxy在研报里面举了个例子 他说传统银行卡网络呢 会在 26 年接入公链稳定币 你的币 直接可以打到你现在的所有银行卡里 可以直接消费

那这里面呢就巨大的基础设施机会 好那第三个共识比较强的赛道呢 就是RWA 机制一致认为资产上链这件事情呢 在26年会更加发扬光大 从以前的只有国债 要扩展到更复杂的资产 特别是一些代币化信贷 或者是代币化股权的项目 21 shares他们预测RWA的总锁仓量TVL 在26年呢

要超过5,000亿美金 coinbase认为 代币化股权 将解决股票7*24小时的交易和抵押问题 那最后一个 大家意见比较一致的赛道呢 就是预测市场赛道 啊虽然说这个赛道目前还比较小 属于小众赛道 但是机构们一致认为 26 年它要爆发 并且成为主流 他们认为 预测市场

将成为比新闻更准确的真相发现机制 而且这个赛道结合AI会变得更加智能 21 shares预测年交易量呢 将达到1,000亿美金 galaxy预测Polymarket一个平台一 周的交易量将会超过15亿美金 A16Z的研报呢 也提到它 说它会在今年变得更大更广更智能 好以上的都是意见统一的

咱们再来说几个意见不统一 分歧比较大的赛道 在这几个领域里面 机构的看法截然不同 针尖对麦芒 比如说数字资产财库空虚 就是这个dat们 那这里面最出名的一家公司呢 就是microstrategy 它是最大的比特币囤币公司 那乐观派 比如说Coinbase 他们就认为未来呢 这些DAT公司

他们会进化出一些D a T 2.0模式 也就是在未来 这些囤币公司不仅仅是要囤币 还会交易采购 或者是质押他们手里的币 成为这些区块链网络的核心节点 那悲观派 比如说galaxy digital 他们就认为在 26 年 会有5家以上的DAT公司因为经营不善 或者是股价低于净资产

而被强制出售或者倒闭 但是这不是坏事 这是一个去伪存真的清洗过程 清洗一下是为了更健康的活着 好那第三派呢 是无视派 比如说灰度啊 灰度呢把DAT呢 列为红鲱鱼 也就是说 他们认为这个𠮶 哎 有点杞人忧天啦 DAT在26年根本不是主角儿 不是市场的主要驱动力

你们这些媒体简直是过分关注啦 他们好不好 死不死又能怎样呢 不会对市场造成太大的影响 好那再来说第二个分歧比较大的 那就是以太坊的layer two 关于这个赛道呢 乐观派呢 比如说Coinbase和Messari 他们都倾向于 26 年 呢layer two生态会迎来继续的繁荣发展 特别是base链 和一些专注于Defi的链

那悲观派 比如说21 shares 他就极其的悲观哈 他就给出了一个非常残酷的预测 他们说绝大多数的以太坊layer two 是活不过26年的 26年这个赛道会迎来大结局时刻 资金只会流向头部 比如说base arbitrum optimism 除了头部之外 剩下的那些没生态的 没用户的 都会变成僵尸链

所以他们认为啊 千万不要去赌那些不知名的小盘L2 了大概率是要归零的 好那第三个分歧比较大的赛道呢 就是隐私赛道 啊隐私这个事情 看多派比如说galaxy H6Z和Mesari 他们都认为隐私是机构入场的刚需 你没有隐私 大钱不敢进来啊 galaxy直接爆出数字

他们预测隐私代币的市值呢 将会突破 1000 亿美金 H6Z说隐私呢 是最重要的护城河啊 但是看空派呢 他们不这么认为 比如说Coinbase 他们说虽然啊 对隐私咱们都有需求 但是监管是不允许让你隐私的 比如说欧盟呢 他们终将禁止隐私 b如果说隐私方面真的有机会

那一定是合规的隐私 哈哈你要有个合规的隐私技术 那你多少还有点生存空间 好那以上呢 就是各个机构分歧比较大的赛道 接下来呢 咱们再来补充三个 有些机构提到的赛道 他们呢也非常有意思啊 咱们还是稍微提一下 看这里面 是不是有一些 我们可能忽视掉的重磅交易机会 那这个部分 呢第一名呢

就是比特币FIN啊 比特币协议创新赛道 我相信咱们频道的观众 手里大部分都是有比特币的 在以前呢 咱们只能傻傻的hold住这些比特币 但是在 26 年呢 比特币要开始干活了 UTXO management的报告里面 提到了一个专门的词 说比特币yield啊 就是比特币收益 他们认为这是一个千亿美金的大赛道 那他们的逻辑呢 也很简单

就是他们认为现在的这些机构 比如说Meta planet 他们买了这么多比特币 他们是有业绩压力的 他们需要让他们手里的这些比特币 像国债一样产生利息 所以UTXO预测 未来的机构竞争将会变成 谁能更安全的让手里的比特币 生出来利息 那基于此 将催生出一个巨大的BTCFI市场

只要哪个项目 能通过比特币的二层网络 解决比特币生息的问题 他就是下一个Defi之王 那做这方面创业的小伙伴要努力了啊 我这条视频你可以转发一下了 好那第二个赛道呢 就是币圈企业上市潮 那这一点呢 我之所以挑出来单独跟大家说 是因为 26 年呢 我们会迎来一个最大的宏观利好

那就是大清晰法案的通过 那关于这个利好呢 很多人只知道是利好 但是不知道他有多利好 galaxy digital研报里面 做了一个非常大胆的预测 他认为26年 会有15家以上的加密货币公司 在美国IPO上市 接下来像Kraken Chainalysis Fireblock 甚至我们熟悉的OKX这种 大交易所 都有可能在26年冲击纳斯达克

这意味着什么 哈哈这意味着这些公司一旦上市 加密行业的估值逻辑呢 就会彻底发生变化 不仅能让传统的 一些大额股市资金流入 比如说养老金保险资金 他们的上市呢 还会倒逼整个行业 清洗掉那些草台班子 而且呢 这中间还有一个代币和股权联动效应 那这些公司在上市之前发行的平台币

可能会演变成为某种形式的股权代币 或者是与股权挂钩的一些代币 这就意味着 如果你在一级市场 或者是通过平台币 提前布局这些有上市预期的巨头 他们的回报率呢 可能比单纯炒币还要高啊 这种就叫股权溢价 好那第三个赛道呢 是比特币挖矿 灰度呢在他的报告中指出

比特币的供应量呢 是完全程序化的 是可以高度测算的 那通过他们的测算 26年3月份 全球第2,000万枚比特币将被开采出来 挖矿呢会进入最后周期 那这将是矿业最后赚钱的黄金时期 那是不是意味着矿业现在不赚钱了 那这个事呢 我是有发言权的

对吧我是绝对的实打实的矿工 那通过我个人的经验呢 还是想说挖矿呢 在最后这个周期里面 仍然是币圈最赚钱的赛道 没有之一 data run最近上线了一批捡漏机器 这些机器呢 我稍微测算了一下 回本周期在一年左右 这是任何赛道无法比拟的 有些赛道的回报率确实比矿业高

但是它比矿业的确定性差太多 那确定性高的 其他赛道 比如说美债 它的收益率绝对没有挖矿高 所以矿业呢 仍然是综合实力最强的赛道 只要你的矿机在美国 问题都不会太大 比如说我们的矿场data run 到今天呢 它又经历过一年的考验了 这一年里面都是给我们稳稳的出币

那大家千万不要图那个电费便宜 去买到其他国家的矿场 那这一点呢 我是吃过亏的 不光是我 最近有一个兄弟给我的私信呢 他也是吃了这个亏 那当然了 好在他有一部分机器呢 也在data run啊 这个是非常安全的 其他的机器呢 都已经血本无归了 那如果对挖矿感兴趣的小伙伴呢 可以在视频下方 找到我们data run的联系方式 买矿机呢

我一般会选两个季节 第一个季节就是刚减半的时候 那个时候往往会上线新机器 我要买的呢就是新款机器 但是问题就是刚上线 价格会比较高 那第二个好的时机呢 就是现在币价刚经历一轮的下调 市场上出现了很多打骨折的机器 其中有些新款机器的折扣也非常大 在这样的折扣下 配上现在的币价

这些机器可以做到一年回本 超级划算 好那兄弟们 咱们最后总结一下 26年的市场剧本 这些机构已经帮咱写好了 大部分机构呢 都看好比特币是要冲破前高的 甚至有机构认为 比特币是要冲破 15 万美金的 那细分赛道方面 AI agent和稳定币支付赛道呢 都是确定性很高的赛道 预测市场BTCFI

币圈企业IPO这些赛道里面 是最容易出现大alpha的机会 机构的号角已经吹响 那各位小伙伴你心动了吗 那还是那句话 行动之前还是要做自己的研究 以上并不构成任何的投资建议 那如果今天这期视频对你有帮助 有启发 不要忘记给大漂亮一键三连啊 我们下期见了 拜拜宝贝们

Brothers, it's been almost a month since twenty twenty-six.

What do you think of the market this year?

You know the performance of Bitcoin last year was very bad.

It achieved negative growth throughout the year.

And most importantly, According to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin, twenty-six years should be a whole year of bear market.

If that's the case, it means this year is completely hopeless.

We should immediately sell at the top and sell all our positions.

Is that really the case?

Is there any mystery in it?

Stop guessing.

I stayed up for several nights I read the twenty-six-year outlook reports the twenty-six-year outlook reports just released.

and read them all.

Huz, Standard Chartered, HUZ, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BlackRock, and so on.

These giants who control trillions of dollars Their cards are all in this video.

Let me first share my research conclusion.

After reading all the research reports, I was shocked.

In the eyes of institutions, The current currency price may just be the foot of a mountain The so-called four-year bull-bear cycle may have all failed.

Now, we are in a structural long bull market.

If you want to know how much Bitcoin can rise to in twenty twenty-six, and besides hoarding Bitcoin, what other tracks can we layout to double our assets.

This video is definitely the hardest dry goods on the whole network.

Be sure to watch to the end.

First, let's solve the first question.

how much Bitcoin will rise to in twenty twenty-six.

Almost all institutional research reports have answered this question.

So I divide their answers into four factions.

aggressive reporting, structural, fundamental, practical, and calm.

Based on the above four schools of thought, I have summarized a consensus.

that Bitcoin will likely rise in twenty twenty-six.

Ha ha ha, and it will completely break the historical First of all, let's look at the most optimistic Let's first look at the most cheerful the radical counting faction.

The first representative of this faction Galaxy Digital.

Their research report Was released on December 18, 25 In the research report, they predicted that by the end of twenty twenty-seven, bitcoin's price will reach two hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

This year is twenty twenty-six.

In twenty twenty-six, they believe it is very likely to hit a new high, which is more than one hundred twenty-six thousand last year.

Their core logic is that with the easing of monetary policy and the entry of institutions, bitcoin will become like gold, a non-dollar hedge asset.

Moreover, they also pointed out that the current options market is already preparing for a bitcoin of one hundred fifty thousand dollars.

is preparing for it.

So they think there may be some volatility in twenty twenty-six, but the general trend is still upward.

The second player of the aggressive camp is is Standard Chartered Bank.

Standard Chartered's research report was released in December last year.

Bitcoin in twenty twenty-six, They saw a maximum of one hundred fifty thousand dollars.

Those who have watched my previous the video about Standard Chartered Bank, should know that Standard Chartered's expectations for Bitcoin has actually been lowered recently.

You should know that before, they expected Bitcoin to reach three hundred thousand dollars.

The reason why they have such a prediction The core logic is that they believe that companies like Bitcoin that hoard coins, the craze of companies like DAT would gradually cool down.

and it would no longer be the main force in the market.

But ETFs will continue to buy.

This buying volume will become a new engine.

Probably, ETF will buy will buy two hundred thousand bitcoins each quarter.

Under such a driving force, They believe that they believe that the crypto winter will no longer exist.

The next market will be a slow bull market.

which is stable.

The third player in the aggressive camp is is UTXO Management.

The research report of this company was released in May last year.

They claimed in the research report that By twenty twenty-six, institutional inflows are expected to will reach three hundred billion US dollars.

The core logic is is that they have developed their own prediction model.

This model is very scary.

Their prediction is that by the end of twenty twenty-six, at least four new countries and five US states will use Bitcoin as their strategic reserve.

After this money comes in, Bitcoin will not be able to withstand the ten thousand mark.

It will directly lead to a shortage crisis on the supply side.

So their view is at least one hundred thousand.

The fourth player in the radical camp is is Bitwise.

The report was released last month.

They believe that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high again in twenty twenty.

which is similar to Galaxy Digital.

And they said that Bitcoin's volatility will be lower than Nvidia's.

Their judgment logic is also very simple.

mainly considering that the continuous inflow of ETF funds, and the interest rates are lowering macroscopically.

so it's a double boost of liquidity.

And the volatility of Bitcoin has started to decline, lower than tech stocks, it will become a real institutional asset allocation target.

Well, the predictions of these four institutions are very optimistic.

According to their logic, it will definitely be a year of great rise.

Next, let's take a look at the second tier.

The focus of the second tier is not on rising, but change.

This change can also drive a lot of growth.

Let's first take a look at Grayscale's research report.

Grayscale's research report was released on December sixteenth.

They believe that in the first half of twenty twenty-six, Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high.

Not only that, they also put forward a heavyweight view.

that is the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin for more than ten years has been broken this year.

The market is no longer the simple halving and then soaring, and then followed by a sharp decline.

but has entered driven by institutional funds and regulatory refinement a continuous upward period, which is called the super cycle.

Let's take a look at another player in this field.

Twenty-one Shares.

Their research report was released in December.

They also believe that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in twenty twenty-six and start a structural bull market.

The core logic is mostly the same as that of Grayscale.

The only difference is that is that They believe that Bitcoin's volatility has recently declined, and behaving more and more like a mature macro asset.

The more stable it is, as the global debt crisis intensifies, the more likely Bitcoin will become a safe-haven asset.

The above two both believe that in twenty twenty-six, Bitcoin has reached a new turning point of change.

from a market asset with a very obvious cyclical nature to a risk-resistant and stable long-term bull asset.

Let's take a look at the third tier.

This tier focuses on the fundamental and practical approach.

Bitcoin will be very useful in twenty twenty-six.

The representative of this school mainly A sixteen Z.

A sixteen Z's research report was released in December last year.

They did not predict specific price numbers, but predicted the flow of value.

They believe that in twenty twenty-six, with the development of AI, in the future, people's trading behavior will not be done by themselves, but AI will help people do it.

So how will AI trade?

What will they use to trade?

A sixteen z believes that blockchain will become the settlement layer of AI economy.

So blockchain will be an infrastructure in the future.

The infrastructure market will be a trillion-level incremental market.

As long as this logic holds, as the underlying asset, Bitcoin and Ethereum's value will be infinitely magnified.

Okay, what about the second school of thought?

is Coinbase Combs' research report, was also released last month.

It did not predict the actual price of Bitcoin.

Their attitude towards Bitcoin is a cautious optimism.

What will the market look like in twenty twenty-six?

They made a statement like this.

They believe that in twenty twenty-six, The regulatory environments in the United States have changed dramatically The adoption of ETFs and institutions will become a long-term support.

Especially in the US, next year, And pass the Big Clear Act.

which will allow compliant funds to enter the market.

What will the market structure look like?

Simply put, Think of the early development of the Internet in nineteen ninety-six.

In nineteen ninety-six, was not as crazy as in nineteen ninety-nine's dot-com bubble, But everything was just beginning.

and full of vitality.

There is another player in this camp, is Fidelity.

The time Fidelity released the report was the month before last.

The report said that Bitcoin is facing a long-term paradigm shift.

The core logic is that they emphasized game theory.

That is to say, if more countries establish Bitcoin reserves, other countries that have not established it will be forced to follow suit.

Then this kind of national-level fomo is afraid to miss it.

will be the huge driving force for Bitcoin's future.

Moreover, they also believe that retail investors never need to panic, because the supply of Bitcoin is fixed.

It's only so much.

So it will always rise.

So you can buy it at any time without being late.

Okay, let's continue.

messengers What about messari's research report?

was also released last month.

He believes that the cryptocurrency market will experience structural differentiation.

Bitcoin will sit firmly on the sidelines.

They believe that in twenty twenty-six, will be the year of separation between utility and speculation.

Bitcoin has found its place, which is digital gold.

As for other tokens, will be worse.

They must also like Bitcoin find their own position or prove their practical use.

otherwise they will be eliminated.

They also believe that that twenty-six is not a year for retail investors.

institutions will win in this year.

Retail investors may buy some altcoins that cannot prove their worth, and end up losing some money.

Okay, the above ten are bullish on Bitcoin.

Let's add the research report of the eleventh institution.

This institution I call it the cool-headed.

It is the only one that mentioned that Bitcoin will have a sharp correction.

This institution is is Van ECK.

They believe that twenty twenty-six will be a year of volatility.

Although they are bullish in the long term, but in the short-term volatility process, the maximum drawdown of Bitcoin could still reach about thirty-five percent.

The reason is simple.

They said the global liquidity environment in twenty twenty-six is very complex.

the Fed is easing, Japan is raising interest rates, and the AI track is very hot, and AI has sucked away a lot of funds.

This will make the cryptocurrency market's upward path not a straight line.

very bumpy.

Well, although Bitcoin is bullish in twenty twenty-six, but it can't rise ten or twenty times.

To get rich, it depends on the specific sub-sector.

So I've read through thousands of pages of reports I found that the predictions of various institutions are diverse.

showing their abilities.

To facilitate reporting to you, I divide these predictions into three parts.

The first part is the track that all institutions agree on, that are all optimistic about.

The second part is where everyone has very different opinions, some are very optimistic, while others are very bearish.

The third part is only a part of institutions are optimistic.

and the other part that has not been mentioned.

First, let's talk about the popular track that everyone agrees on.

The first one is AI agent plus crypto.

This is definitely the most sexy narrative in twenty twenty-six.

without a doubt.

a16z Coinbase galaxy All heavy positions bet on this track What kind of opportunity is this?

A sixteen Z in the report proposed a new concept, called KYA, Know Your Agent.

We used to talk about KYC, right?

After we know your customer, don't do KYC, it's all about KYA.

Why?

Because in the future, those who are active on the chain will not be humans, but AI robots.

These AI robots need to help people make payments.

What will they use to pay?

Coinbase in its report directly named an agreement, It uses the X four zero two protocol.

This protocol which is specifically for transferring money between robots.

It resurrects the HTTP four zero two payment required code.

robots use it to pay.

Authorize the wallet to fill in the code.

How big is this market?

Galaxy Digital made an astonishing quantitative prediction saying that in twenty twenty-six, payments based on AI agents will account for more than thirty percent of the BSC's transactions.

This proportion is already very high.

Do you understand?

Brothers, what kind of track this is.

Imagine this.

In the future, when we are sleeping, when we are sleeping, our AI agent on the chain, automatically help us find the pool with the highest yield.

and directly deposit our Bitcoin and stake it to earn money.

Or it scans the information on the chain itself and sees some good shitcoins, and it will buy them for us.

After doubling, it will sell and automatically sell them for us.

When these robots when making buying and selling actions, what do they need?

they need wallets and payment channels.

Just think about it.

how big the market is.

The conclusion of institutions is that is that this track is very large.

They will also layout those that provide wallets and payment functions.

If the AI track just mentioned is like the sea of stars, which has not been realized yet.

Then the next stablecoin track is already a gold mine that we can step on.

This track is also recognized by all institutions the most certain track in twenty twenty-six.

How exaggerated can its data be?

Twenty-one shares predicted the supply of stablecoins will reach one trillion dollars.

Coinbase says 28 years the market value of stablecoins will reach one point two trillion.

Galaxy's prediction is even more amazing.

He said in twenty twenty-six, stablecoins will directly will give traditional banks a big surprise.

The annual trading volume of stablecoins will exceed the traditional bank ACH system.

What about A sixteen Z's statement?

is even more outrageous.

He said it will not surpass traditional banks.

I tell you what the future of this stablecoin is.

It's not a cryptocurrency trading tool.

It will become the basic settlement layer of the entire Internet.

This stablecoin is not just a matter of the cryptocurrency circle.

Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe will all be crazy to adopt stablecoin payments.

In the future, various needs of users such as cross-border remittance, and e-commerce shopping, may all be stablecoins.

A sixteen Z's words are very accurate.

He said the internet has become a bank, which means the internet itself is a bank.

So how big is this market?

It's as big as the Internet.

How can this track make money?

The conclusion is that buying USDT or USDC, you can't make money.

We should pay attention to the ecosystem of these stablecoins, and those payment protocols that can connect and real-world consumption.

Galaxy gave an example in the research report.

He said that traditional bank card networks will be connected to public chain stablecoins in twenty twenty-six.

Your coins can be directly transferred to all your current bank cards and can be directly consumed.

There are huge infrastructure opportunities here.

Okay, the third consensus is relatively strong track, is RWA.

The mechanism agrees that the asset is on the chain.

will be more prominent in twenty twenty-six.

From only government bonds in the past, will expand to more complex assets, especially some tokenized credit, or tokenized equity projects.

Twenty-one shares predicts that the total locked volume of RWA in twenty twenty-six, More than $500 billion Coinbase thinks tokenized equity It will solve the 7 * 24 trading and collateral issues of stocks The last one the track that everyone agrees on is the prediction market track.

Although this track is currently relatively small, and is a niche market.

but institutions agree that it will explode in twenty twenty-six and become mainstream.

They believe that prediction markets will become a more accurate truth-finding mechanism than news.

And this track will become smarter with the combination of AI.

Twenty-one shares predicts that the annual trading volume will reach one hundred billion US dollars.

Galaxy predicts that one platform of Polymarket will exceed one point five billion dollars a week.

A sixteen Z's research report also mentioned it, says it will become bigger, wider, and smarter this year.

Okay, the above are all unanimous opinions.

Let's talk about some areas where opinions are not and have big differences.

In these fields, institutions have very different views.

It's a head-to-head competition.

For example, the digital asset treasury is empty, which are the DATs.

The most famous company in this field is Microstrategy.

It is the largest Bitcoin hoarding company.

The optimists, such as Coinbase, think that in the future, these DAT companies will evolve into some D A T two point zero models.

That is, in the future, these cryptocurrency hoarding companies will not only hoard coins, but also trade, purchase, or pledge the coins they hold to become the core nodes of these blockchain networks.

The pessimists, such as Galaxy Digital, They believe that in twenty twenty-six, more than five DAT companies will be forced to sell or stock prices are below net assets will be forced to sell or go bankrupt.

But this is not a bad thing.

It's a process of separating the wheat from the chaff.

It's a process of separating the true from the false.

Okay, what about the third group?

is the ignore faction.

such as Grayscale.

Grey release? DAT?

Listed as red herring That is to say, They think that is a bit of a worrywart.

DAT will not be the protagonist in twenty twenty-six.

and not the main driving force of the market.

You media are paying too much attention to it.

Whether they are good or not Whether it dies or not, what's the big deal?

It won't have a significant impact on the market.

Okay, let's talk about the second one, which is more controversial.

which is Ethereum's layer two.

Regarding this track, optimists, For example, Coinbase and Messari they tend to believe that in twenty twenty-six, the layer two ecosystem will continue to thrive.

especially the Base chain and some chains focusing on Defi.

The pessimists, such as Twenty-One Shares, are extremely pessimistic.

he gave a very cruel prediction.

They say that the vast majority of Ethereum layer two will not survive for twenty-six years.

In twenty-six years, this track will come to an end.

Funds will only flow to the top.

such as Base, Arbitrum, Optimism.

Except for the top ones, and the rest without ecology and no users will become zombie chains.

So they think that Never bet on those unknown small-cap L2 There is a high probability that it will return to zero.

Okay, the third track with a big disagreement is is the privacy track.

Privacy is a matter.

the bullish side, like Galaxy HsixZ and Mesari they all believe privacy is a must for institutions.

Without privacy, and big money won't come in.

Galaxy directly gave a number.

They predict that the market value of privacy tokens will exceed one hundred billion US dollars.

H six Z says privacy is the most important moat.

But the bears don't think so.

For example, Coinbase they say that although we all have a need for privacy, but regulation does not allow privacy.

For example, the European Union will eventually ban privacy.

If there is a real opportunity in privacy, it must be compliant privacy.

Ha ha, if you have a compliant privacy technology, you will have some room to survive.

Okay, so the above are the tracks where institutions have big differences.

Next, let's add three more.

the tracks mentioned by some institutions.

which are also very interesting.

Let's just mention them briefly.

Look at this section, if there are some that we may have overlooked.

In this section, The first one is Bitcoin FIN.

Bitcoin Protocol Innovation Track.

I believe most of our viewers most of them have Bitcoin in their hands.

In the past, we could only hold on to these bitcoins.

But in twenty twenty-six, Bitcoin will start to work.

UTXO management report inside mentions a special term Bitcoin yield, which means Bitcoin yield.

They think it's a ten billion dollar market.

Their logic is is simple.

They think that these institutions now, Like planet Meta have bought so many bitcoins, they have performance pressure.

They need to make the bitcoins in their hands generate interest like treasury bonds.

So UTXO predicts the future institutional competition will become who can more safely let the bitcoins in their hands generate interest.

Based on this, It will generate a huge BTCFI market As long as any project can use the Bitcoin's second-layer network solve the problem of interest generation of Bitcoin, it will be the next king of DeFi.

So those who are starting a business in this area should work hard.

You can share this video.

Okay, the second track It is the listing tide of companies in the currency circle For this point, is that in twenty twenty-six, is because in twenty twenty-six, we will welcome the biggest macro利好.

That's the passage of the Big Clear Act.

As for this positive factor, many people only know that it is a good thing, but they don't know how beneficial it is.

In Galaxy Digital's research report, made a very bold prediction.

He believes that in twenty twenty-six, more than fifteen cryptocurrency companies to go public in the US.

Next Kraken Chainalysis Fireblock and even the familiar OKX large exchanges may all go public on the Nasdaq in twenty twenty-six.

What does this mean?

Ha ha, this means that once these companies go public, the valuation logic of the cryptocurrency industry will change completely.

It will not only allow traditional large amounts of traditional stock market funds such as pension and insurance funds.

Their listing but also force the entire industry to clean up those makeshift teams. Moreover, there is also a token and equity linkage effect.

The platform tokens issued by these companies before listing may evolve into some form of equity token, or some tokens linked to equity.

This means that if you invest in the primary market or through platform coins you can layout these giants with listing expectations in advance, their returns may be higher than simply trading coins.

This is called equity premium.

Okay, the third track is is Bitcoin mining.

Grayscale pointed out in its report that the supply of Bitcoin is fully programmed and can be highly calculated.

Through their calculation, in March twenty twenty-six, the two millionth Bitcoin will be mined globally.

mining will enter its final cycle.

This will be the golden period for the mining industry to make money.

So does that mean mining isn't profitable anymore?

As for this matter, I have the right to speak.

Right, I am an absolute and real miner.

Based on my personal experience, I still think that mining in the last cycle, It remains the most profitable track in the cryptocurrency industry without a doubt.

Data Run recently launched a batch of bargain machines.

These machines I have calculated slightly.

with a payback period of about one year.

which is unmatched in any other sector.

Some sectors' returns are indeed higher than mining, but it is much less certain than the mining industry.

The more certain ones, other sectors, such as US treasuries, its yield is definitely not as high as mining.

So, the mining industry is still the strongest track in terms of overall strength.

As long as your mining machines are in the US, there won't be too many problems. For example, our Data Run mine until today, has gone through another year of testing.

It has been steadily generating coins for us this year.

Don't just look at the cheap electricity bill to buy a mining farm in another country.

In this regard, I have suffered from this.

Not only me, Recently, a brother sent me a private message.

he also suffered from this loss.

Of course, Fortunately, some of his machines are also in data run.

which is very safe.

The other machines have all been lost.

If you are interested in mining, you can find the contact information find our contact information of Data Run.

When buying mining machines, I usually choose two seasons.

The first season is when the halving occurs.

At that time, new machines are often launched.

I want to buy the new machine.

But the problem is that it just went online.

the price will be higher.

The second good time is is that the currency price has just experienced a round of decline.

there are many discounted machines on the market.

Some of the new machines have very large discounts.

With such discounts, with the current price of Bitcoin, these machines can pay for themselves in one year.

It's a great deal.

Okay guys let's summarize it finally.

the market script for twenty twenty-six.

These institutions have already written it for us.

Most institutions are optimistic that Bitcoin will break through the previous high.

Some institutions even believe that Bitcoin will break through one hundred fifty thousand dollars.

In terms of sub-sectors, AI agent and stablecoin payment tracks are all very certain tracks.

Prediction Market BTCFI Coin circle companies IPO in these tracks are the most likely to generate big alpha.

The horn of institutions has sounded.

Are you tempted?

As the saying goes, you still need to do your own research before taking action.

The above does not constitute any investment advice.

If today's video is helpful to you, or inspired, Don't forget to give me a like, comment, and share.

See you next time.

Bye bye, babies.