查理·芒格：寒冬将至？在下一次“大萧条”来临前，请立刻做好这 3 个准备。

I am 99 years old this year.

Do you know what the advantage of living a long life is?

That's because you've seen too many winters.

You will no longer believe Those nonsense stories about it being summer forever.

Today's young people As long as inflation is slightly higher Or the stock market might drop slightly.

They began to panic.

They started yelling on social media.

They say the economy is about to collapse They say the end of the world is coming.

But in my eyes This doesn't even qualify as a light rain.

Let me tell you what a real winter is.

I was born in 1924 When I was 5 years old The Great Depression began You've read about the Great Depression in your textbooks.

But you haven't smelled that kind of scent.

That's the taste of despair.

There was no job at that time.

No relief funds No hope I've seen what was originally a respectable neighbor.

To buy a piece of bread for the child Forced to beg on the streets I've met bankers who were originally arrogant and domineering.

He jumped from a high-rise building because he couldn't repay his loan.

Later, I experienced the Great Stagflation of the 1970s.

Prices soared at that time But economic stagnation The money you keep in the bank It has been shrinking at a double-digit rate every year.

If you bought stocks So in a full ten years Your rate of return is almost zero.

It was a suffocating, deathly silence.

Then came the dot-com bubble of 2000.

And the 2008 financial crisis Why am I telling you all this?

I'm not trying to scare you.

It's not about taking advantage of one's age.

I'm telling you A common sense forgotten by modern people Winter is inevitable.

The cycle is like the Earth's rotation.

It is an unavoidable physical law.

Every prosperity is inevitably followed by a recession.

Where there is madness, there is bound to be collapse.

If there is summer, there must be winter.

But modern people seem to have developed a kind of amnesia.

Prosperity over the past few decades This misleads you into thinking that economic growth is a given.

Wage increases are a given.

It's only natural that tomorrow will be better than today.

You take this for granted To plan your life You are burdened with a 30-year mortgage.

Assuming you will never lose your job You overdrafted your credit card Assuming next month's bonus will definitely be paid.

You've invested all your money in the stock market.

Assuming the bull market never ends This isn't optimism.

That's called childish.

This naiveté It looks fine on a sunny day.

But as long as the blizzard blows even slightly...

Your life will collapse like a house of cards.

I often say that the reason I've been able to make money in my life is...

Moreover, it can protect money.

Not because I can predict when winter will come.

No one can predict when winter will come.

Those on TV Experts who confidently predict the macroeconomy Most of them are scammers I relied on a simpler but more effective method.

I assume the blizzard will fall tomorrow.

My life They are all preparing for the worst-case scenario.

Some people laugh at me, saying Charlie You're too pessimistic.

You've missed out on so many opportunities to make quick money.

That's right I missed some opportunities to dance on the edge of a cliff.

But I lived to be 99 years old.

And I am still very wealthy.

And those who laughed at me Many people They froze to death in some previous winter.

Now I look at this world Looking at the soaring debt Looking at the crazy speculation Looking at geopolitical conflicts I smelled that familiar scent.

The cold air is approaching.

if Do you want to be in this world full of uncertainty?

Hear the truths Wall Street doesn't want you to know.

If you want to be before the storm comes Put on the thickest armor Please subscribe to this channel now.

The Way is here We do not sell anxiety.

We only provide Survival Guide Based on Nearly a Century of History I don't know if the next Great Depression will come tomorrow.

Still next year Still 10 years later But I knew he would come.

When he came He will not issue a notice.

He would be like a robber in the middle of the night.

Suddenly kick open your door Steal your job Halving your assets Destroy your dignity So, as an ordinary individual What should we do?

Are you trembling with fear?

Or bury your head in the sand like an ostrich.

None of these apply to you; you need to wait until the blizzard arrives.

Fix your roof Stock up on your firewood Build up your muscles You need to transform yourself into a survivor.

Today I'm going to teach you three survival rules.

These three rules helped me get through 1929.

Passed through 1973 Passed through 1987 Passed 12008 As long as you make these three preparations No matter how cold winter is You will not only survive You can even in the freezing cold See scenery that others cannot see Are you ready?

Let's start with the first preparation.

This is a simple mathematical formula.

But it can determine whether your life is filled with suffering or happiness.

Let's address the most important issue first.

In the cold winter It's often not the low temperature that actually kills people.

It's your fragile nerves.

I've noticed a very strange phenomenon among modern people.

The material wealth you possess More than the king 100 years ago.

You have air conditioning Antibiotics There are airplanes that can fly to the other side of the world.

A mobile phone that can be carried in your pocket and used to watch movies anytime.

Logically speaking You should be so happy you can't stop smiling every day.

But the truth is quite the opposite.

I think about young people today Compared to our days of rolling in the mud...

Ten thousand times more painful Your anxiety You are depressed You are filled with resentment Why? Because you've been poisoned by something.

Why? Because you've been poisoned by something.

This is called overly high expectations.

Do you think a starting salary of 100,000 yuan after graduation is reasonable?

You think that buying stocks should automatically lead to price increases?

You think it's only natural that life gets better year by year.

This is a terrifying sense of power.

This sense of power During prosperous times Maybe it just makes you a little annoying But as winter approaches It will kill you Because the essence of winter is the harsh reality of decline.

When the Great Depression came Your salary may be halved.

Your stocks may be halved Your house may become a liability.

If at this time You're still clinging to the expectations of those prosperous times.

You will feel immense pain This kind of pain can make you make extremely foolish decisions.

For example, borrowing high-interest loans to maintain a respectable appearance.

Or desperately cutting losses at the bottom.

So my first survival advice It might sound very unpleasant.

But it's absolutely effective at bringing your expectations down to the floor.

My life Believe in an extremely simple mathematical formula Happiness equals reality minus expectations This is a universal truth.

If your expectation is 100 points But in reality, it's only 90 points.

Although 90 points is already very high.

But you will still feel pain.

Because the result is -10 But if your expectation is only 50 points The reality is 60 points.

You will feel incredibly happy.

Because the results confirm...

I have experienced a lot of misfortune in my life.

I was divorced when I was young.

I went bankrupt.

I even buried my 9-year-old son.

But I have never been defeated by these misfortunes.

Why Because I never expect life to be fair.

I never expect the world to treat me kindly.

If you had anticipated this Life will give you a hard punch.

So when that punch actually comes...

You will not only not fall You can even laugh and say hey That punch was lighter than I expected.

This is what is known as defensive pessimism.

Before the next crisis arrives I suggest you do a mental rehearsal.

Imagine If you lose your job tomorrow Would you be willing to deliver food?

Imagine If your investment loses 50% Can you accept not buying new clothes for several years?

Imagine If you have to sell your big house Moved into a small apartment Can you still love life?

If your answer to these questions is yes Then you will have the strongest bulletproof vest.

The cold winter won't hurt you Because you have already accepted the worst outcome.

As for those who set their expectations too high...

The harsh winter will not only destroy their wealth It will also destroy their self-esteem They will fall into resentment They would blame the government, society, their parents, and luck.

remember Jealousy and resentment are the most foolish emotions in the world.

Because they can't hurt others.

It can only corrode your own container like acid.

So what would a smart person do?

A smart person will proactively lower that railing.

Our secret at Berkshire Hathaway is...

We never try to jump over a 7-foot hurdle.

We searched everywhere Find the railing that's only one foot high.

Then step over The same applies to life.

Don't pursue unrealistically high returns.

Don't try to outdo your neighbor in luxury cars.

Learn to be content with a cup of hot coffee and a good book A healthy body and a few reliable friends When your expectations are so low Every good thing that happens in life will be a surprise.

This is the first rule of survival in the dead of winter.

Don't try to change the harsh reality.

Because you can't change your expectations.

When you harden your heart like a stone Let's talk about money again.

Because having the right mindset isn't enough.

In the blizzard You do need some firewood to keep warm.

In the next section I want to tell you Why is this my life?

People who laugh at cash as trash Before the crisis arrives Hoard cash like a miser Because cash is usually considered trash.

But when suffocating Cash is like oxygen.

Once the mindset issue is resolved Let's talk about that most tacky one.

But the most important issue is money.

If you've seen Berkshire Hathaway's financial statements You will discover a strange phenomenon Even during the worst of inflation On our books It also has over $100 billion in cash lying around forever.

The smart people on Wall Street often laugh at us.

They said Zari You guys are too conservative.

Cash is trash.

Every year Inflation will eat up 5% or more of it.

You're holding so much cash and not investing it?

It's a waste of shareholders' money.

From a mathematical perspective They are right.

In the long run Cash is indeed the worst-performing asset.

But from a survival perspective They are completely wrong.

There's a famous analogy between me and Warren Buffett.

Cash is like oxygen On the plains On a sunny day Oxygen is everywhere You simply don't realize how precious it is.

At this moment, you are walking while carrying an oxygen cylinder.

It really looks silly and cumbersome.

However, financial markets will not always be flat.

It will suddenly become a vacuum.

When a crisis like 2008 comes The credit market froze overnight.

Banks are no longer lending money.

The stock market crashed All liquidity vanished instantly At this time The entire market was like a room where all the air had been sucked out.

Those who usually mock us for holding cash Those who pursue high returns And those who max out their leverage Struggling to breathe at that moment They had to kneel down.

They asked us to give them their best assets.

They sold it to us at a dirt-cheap price Just to get a breath of oxygen Therefore, we are not holding cash.

Our holdings It is a call option that never expires.

This option Let us, when everyone is panicking Possess offensive capabilities Also let us When the end of the world seems imminent Still able to sleep like a baby For ordinary people like you The logic is the same.

Current financial experts They're all teaching you how to beat inflation.

How to invest every penny in the stock market But my advice to you is exactly the opposite.

Before the arrival of winter Please be sure to build your cash fortress.

This is not for making money To save one's life First, you need to eliminate your debt.

Debt is the opposite of cash.

If cash is oxygen That debt is the noose around your neck.

During prosperous times The rope is loose.

You can't feel it You can borrow money to buy a house.

Borrow money to buy a car Borrowing money to consume Do you think that as long as the salary is paid on time...

That's not a problem.

But when the Great Depression arrived...

When your salary stops The rope will tighten instantly.

I've seen too many smart people.

Because of excessive leverage A small cash flow disruption during the crisis They were forced to sell all their assets at the bottom.

Back to pre-liberation days So if you still have outstanding credit card debt If your car loan is not yet paid off Please stop making purchases immediately.

Pay them back Don't let anyone get away with you when you're at your most vulnerable.

The right to tighten the rope Secondly, you need to establish a "Go Die" fund.

This is a vulgar word.

But it is very useful.

This is the goal I set for myself when I was young.

I saved a sum of money.

This money is enough for me to not work for two or three years.

It can also sustain a living This means If my boss forces me to do things I don't like I can tell him to die.

I quit If an economic crisis comes The company laid off employees Can I tell the crisis to go to hell?

I have food to eat This sense of security Any high-yield financial product I can't give you any of that.

I suggest that every family prepare before the cold winter arrives.

You should have enough savings to last for at least a year and a half.

Cash expenditure Store it in the safest bank Or buy short-term government bonds Regardless of the rate of return Regardless of whether inflation is eating it up.

Just treat it as It's the insurance premium you pay for your freedom.

If you understand this principle If you're willing to do it The minority who remain sober amidst the frenzy Please subscribe to this channel.

Because in the days to come When everyone around was panicking because of a lack of money You will need more wisdom Manage this life-saving money in your hands It was even used to achieve upward social mobility.

We will always be here.

Be your rational support.

Many people ask me Isn't it easy for Zari to save money?

Why can't most people do it?

Because this requires delayed gratification.

This requires you to watch your neighbor get a new car.

Still driving your old car This requires you to watch your friends make money in the stock market.

Still holding onto your cash This requires extremely strong willpower.

But this kind of resolve is worthwhile.

When the blizzard really fell When the neighbor's new car was repossessed by the bank When a friend's stocks were forcibly liquidated You will sit in your warm house Looking at the cash in the account I felt an unprecedented tranquility You'll understand then.

Cash is not trash Cash is dignity.

It is free cash It's the ticket to survival.

Okay, now you're more composed.

Your granary is full too.

You will no longer starve to death.

but To survive a depression that lasts for several years Simply relying on defense is not enough.

You also need a certain ability A power that allows you to fly against the wind In the next section I'm going to teach you a concept called antifragility.

I want to tell you Why do some people perish in a crisis?

And some people For example, me and Warren But they can become stronger in the face of crisis.

Adjust your mindset My wallet is getting fatter Now you are qualified to weather the blizzard.

But that's not enough.

Me and Warren The reason why Buffett is not afraid of crises There's even a bit of anticipation for a crisis.

It's because we possess a third ability.

This ability Nassim Taleb calls it antifragile.

What does that mean?

There are three things in this world The first type is fragile.

For example, a glass You threw it on the ground It broke.

The Great Depression is coming Those who are burdened with debt Those without core skills Just like a glass It shattered into pieces on the ground.

The second type is tough.

For example, plastic cups You threw it on the ground It's not broken, but it hasn't changed either.

This is similar to those who receive a fixed salary.

People with extremely stable jobs Crisis is coming They might be able to survive.

But the quality of life will not improve.

The third type is also the highest level.

It is antifragile.

For example, your muscles You keep tearing it apart.

Put pressure on it After it recovered Instead, it became stronger.

Every Great Depression It's all a brutal process of natural selection.

He will ruthlessly discard those fragile glasses.

Reward those antifragile muscle men So for an ordinary person How can I make myself unkillable?

There is only one answer.

Build your circle of competence And dig it to an unfathomable depth.

During prosperous times That is, when the opportunity arises.

Even pigs can fly.

You don't need to work too hard back then.

It doesn't require too much expertise.

You can make money just by standing there.

You will experience a hallucination You think that's your skill?

That's just the power of the wind.

But when winter comes...

The wind stopped Those pigs flying in the sky will crash and be smashed to pieces.

Only the eagles with wings are still flying.

These wings It's your hard skills The saddest thing I've ever seen in my life Those middle-aged people in their 35s and 40s Layoffs during the crisis They tearfully recounted how they had dedicated their youth to the company.

Why is the company so heartless?

But if you look closely You'll find that most of them are generalists.

They know a little bit about everything.

But he's not good at anything.

They are in the company Doing those dispensable management tasks Or those that can be readily embraced by young people Repetitive labor replaced by artificial intelligence They are vulnerable.

Their fate is in the hands of others.

So what are true antifragile individuals like?

I know a neurosurgeon Regardless of the economic situation Regardless of whether the stock market rises or falls His surgery is permanently scheduled until next year.

Because of this world Only a very small number of people can undergo that kind of surgery.

Patients will not be affected by the economic crisis Just find any cheap doctor to perform craniotomy.

I also know a plumber.

During the 2008 financial crisis Earned more money than during prosperous times Because even during the Great Depression Even rich people have to call someone to fix their toilets when they get clogged.

And his skills were the best in that neighborhood.

This is the core of Mungerism.

Want to get what you want The safest way is to let I deserve it If you want to survive the Great Depression You must make yourself irreplaceable.

You need to ask yourself a harsh question.

If my company goes bankrupt tomorrow If the industry disappears The skill I possess Can't I at least get a bowl of rice at the market?

If the answer is no Then you are in danger right now.

During the period before the true arrival of winter Your last window of opportunity Stop pursuing those fancy side hustles.

Stop learning those so-called quick-fix financial management methods.

Calm down and hone your skills If you are a programmer Go and study the lowest level of code.

Become that A person who can solve bugs that others cannot.

If you are in sales Go and hone your communication skills.

Become the person who can sell combs to monks.

If you are a chef Go study your recipes Make your food so delicious that people are willing to queue for two hours.

This is your moat.

Warren Buffett and I read every day.

Learning every day We are all over 90 years old.

Still like a greedy learning machine Why? Because we know the world is changing.

Why? Because we know the world is changing.

Old knowledge becomes obsolete.

If we stop learning We will become that fragile glass.

We have a motto: Every night before bed A little smarter than when I woke up This tiny bit of progress It's not noticeable in a few days.

But over the decades In that long, cold winter It is the distance between life and death.

When others complain about the bad environment You are honing your skills While others anxiously await relief You are reading and thinking When spring comes You will find You've left them a hundred and eight thousand miles behind.

This is the essence of antifragility.

Don't waste any opportunity to exploit a crisis.

The pressure of the crisis Forcing oneself to evolve Okay now You have made three preparations and lowered your expectations.

You have cash reserves.

You honed your skills You have been a lamb to the slaughter.

He transformed into a wolf armed to the teeth.

But even wolves If you get lost in a blizzard You might also fall into an ice hole.

In the next section I'm giving you my final warning.

This is what I've learned in various crises.

The bloody lessons I saw There are three stupid things you should never do.

Because as long as one of them is made All your previous efforts will instantly be for nothing.

Now You have built yourself into a sturdy ship.

You lowered your expectations So you have a stable mindset You have cash So you have fuel You have hard skills So you have motivation Logically, you should be able to safely weather any storm.

But as an old man who has watched 99 years of human nature...

I must give you a final warning Even an unsinkable Titanic If the captain insists on crashing into the iceberg...

It can sink too.

In times of crisis Rather than doing the right thing More importantly, don't do anything foolish.

This is what I often call reverse thinking.

All I want to know is where I'm going to die.

That way I'll never go there again.

In the blizzard of the Great Depression There are three ice holes Countless intelligent people fell into it.

He never climbed out again.

Please make sure to remember this.

Always go around The first ice hole is called bottom fishing with leverage.

When winter comes Asset prices will plummet Good companies' stocks are discounted.

Houses will become very cheap At this point, your greed will be aroused.

You'll think, oh my god This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

I don't have enough cash on me.

I should borrow money to buy So we wait for spring to come.

I'll get rich Please, please don't do this.

Why do this during a crisis?

The market is irrational.

Cheap things can become cheaper.

If you buy with cash The stock price has fallen by 50%.

As long as you don't sell You didn't die You can wait Wait until it rises back But if you bought it with borrowed money If you added leverage So when the stock price falls to a certain point...

You will be forced to liquidate your position.

You will die in the darkest hour before dawn.

I've seen far too many tragedies like this.

I have a friend of Warren's named Rick Gallin.

His performance back then was even better than ours.

But during the Great Depression of the 1970s He used borrowed money to leverage...

They were forced to sell all their shares to us at the bottom.

Later we became billionaires.

And he disappeared.

Remember, if you want to survive the winter...

The only rule is to never lend money.

The second ice hole is called indulging in self-pity.

This is a cancer on a psychological level.

When the crisis comes When you get a pay cut When your assets shrink You are easily prone to falling into a victim mentality.

You might wonder why I'm always the one who's unlucky.

Why isn't the government intervening in the market?

Why is the boss so heartless?

This kind of self-pity is even more terrifying than the virus.

Because you feel like a victim You will stop acting.

You'll spend all your time complaining.

Used for hatred Used to numb oneself with alcohol But this doesn't solve anything.

Even if you cry all your tears Inflation will not drop by even one point.

I've encountered a lot of bad luck in my life.

But I never spend even a minute in self-pity.

Because I know it's a vicious cycle.

Once you start to feel sorry for yourself You will become more and more pathetic.

Be a tough guy in the cold winter If misfortune befalls you Just accept it.

Then try to solve it.

Even if it's just sweeping the streets It's better than sitting at home and crying.

The third ice hole is called believing in macroeconomic forecasts.

Crisis It was also a time when rumors flew everywhere.

The experts on TV will tell you The economy is about to collapse The currency is going to be abolished.

World War III is coming.

If you believe these nonsense You will do extremely stupid things.

You will panic At the bottom, accumulate the high-quality assets that you've worked so hard to build up.

Sell ​​them all Or you might be afraid And dare not sow before spring arrives.

Me and Warren Buffett I never look at macroeconomic forecasts We don't care whether the Fed raises interest rates next month.

Or cut interest rates We only care about specific, micro-level facts.

All we care about is whether this company can still make money.

Does anyone still buy this product?

Plug your ears Don't let those noises cloud your judgment.

If you can avoid these three ice holes No leverage, no self-pity, no noise.

Then you've already beaten 90% of people.

In this world full of foolishness and madness Maintaining rationality and common sense is a superpower.

This is why The reason I've persisted in making this channel If you want to live in this noisy era Preserve a pure and clear land If you want to learn how to use the oldest wisdom Avoid those modern traps Please be sure to subscribe to this channel.

We don't teach you how to get rich overnight.

Because that's usually a shortcut to bankruptcy.

We teach you how to gradually become wealthy.

And even if the sky falls It can also protect your wealth Okay, now you're fully armed.

You have a shield of defense.

With offensive spears There are also maps to avoid traps.

For you Winter is no longer a threat It turned into an opportunity An opportunity for upward social mobility In the last part I want to talk to you Although I said a harsh winter was inevitable in the future But I am a complete optimist.

Why? Because I've read 100 years of history.

I know that after every cold winter Human civilization will usher in a more brilliant spring.

If you only listened to the beginning...

You might think I am a complete pessimist.

I told you to lower your expectations.

Let you hoard cash like misers Let's assume you'll lose your job tomorrow.

It sounds like I'm filled with despair for the world.

But the truth is quite the opposite.

In the very bones of me and Warren Buffett We are the world's most steadfast optimists.

Why does this sound so contradictory?

Not contradictory at all What I mean by pessimism is short-term pessimism.

I am pessimistic about the madness within human nature.

I am pessimistic about short-term economic fluctuations.

So I always wear my seatbelt.

Prepare for the impact But if you extend the timeframe to 50 or 100 years...

I am extremely optimistic.

I was born in 1924 At that time, humans did not have antibiotics.

Many people die from simple colds There was no internet back then.

No air conditioning There wasn't as much food as there is now.

In my life I experienced the Great Depression of 1929.

Having experienced World War II Having experienced the nuclear threat of the US-Soviet Cold War Having weathered countless financial crises and pandemics In those dark times If you look at the news at that time You feel like the world is going to end tomorrow.

But what was the result?

The result was that after each crisis Human civilization has not only not been destroyed Instead, it spirals upward at an even faster speed.

We have defeated the disease.

We have created amazing technology.

We have lifted billions of people out of poverty.

The quality of life for ordinary people today is better than it was 100 years ago.

Rockefeller was even better This is the capriciousness of capitalism.

This is the capriciousness of human wisdom.

That's why I asked you to make those three preparations.

It's not to put you in fear.

Trembling in the basement On the contrary I did this so that you When everyone is fearful Having the capital to be optimistic Think about it.

If you have no debt If you have cash If you possess a set of irreplaceable hard skills When winter comes When asset prices plummet While competitors are all lamenting What you will see What you are seeing is not a disaster.

What you see is gold everywhere.

You can get it at an extremely cheap price.

Buy those great companies You can take advantage of other people's layoffs.

Go recruit those top talents who were wrongly killed You can shrink when others Go and occupy those untapped markets For those who are prepared The Great Depression was not a funeral.

Instead, it was a feast This is me and Warren Buffett.

What I've been doing all my life We appear conservative and sluggish during prosperous times.

We watch others make quick money He held the cash in his hand and didn't move.

But once a crisis breaks out...

We became the fiercest hunters.

We went out in full force.

Go to acquire, go to bet Embrace that discounted future Because we firmly believe that winter will eventually pass.

Spring will surely come And those seeds sown in winter It will grow into a towering tree in spring.

So young friends Don't be afraid of the cold winter.

Winter is nature's cleaning mechanism.

It will freeze those pests to death.

Eliminate those weak, speculative, and frenzied bubbles.

It will bring the world back to common sense.

Return to rationality Return to diligence This is for people like you who are willing to learn and endure.

For honest people who are willing to hone their skills Actually, it's a good thing.

No need to be anxious No need to panic As long as you do as I say Lower expectations oxygen reserves Build muscle Avoid leverage So no matter what happens in the future No matter how big the storm You will be the one who laughs last.

You will not only survive You will live a better, stronger, and freer life than before.

This is me A 99-year-old man A survival guide for you On this long journey of investment and life I will always be here with you.

Use common sense to combat madness Navigating cycles with rationality Let's work together in this uncertain world See you next time as a confirmed survivor!