(AI中英字幕)我對2025的年度回顧！戰後秩序已經瓦解、AI元年加速發展，香港該如何在夾縫中展望2026？《蕭若元：書房閒話》2026-01-01

Dear netizens Today is December 31st.

We're going to do a 2025 retrospective.

It's not fringe.

I'm here to tell you what I see and how I feel.

In 2025, we will see the collapse of the entire world order This is me at 76.

I could never have imagined that the world order would collapse like this It's about stepping into a completely new situation.

Not long after I was born Since I was sensible The world is the United States and the United Nations maintain the world order Although there is a Cold War But Two great powers The United States and the Soviet Union will not collide But now that world order is completely disintegrating.

This order is simple After the war we called Pax Americana Because the world ended World War II Only one powerful country remains It's America.

Economically, it was the first great power.

And mainly in the United States And cooperate with the entire Western country Let's maintain the order of the world together It's two things.

first Shipping around the world is smooth Don't get in the way of doing business second There is one hardest rule What's that?

That is.

The border cannot be changed by force.

This one.

In fact, the war that was fought after the war It's all about this.

But the Korean and Vietnam wars had elements of civil war.

And then you have Iraq and you have Kuwait.

No one can accept it But that order has now fallen apart.

America around the world A lot.

Every ocean has a fleet Hundreds of bases This is to maintain the smooth flow of the entire shipping Why did America carry it all?

Because after the war Europe is poor There is no such power at all So it's all American.

And then there's this thing called the Washington Consensus.

It is for everyone to reduce tariffs together Let world trade progress Free economic flow Free movement of capital So...

So...

After several stages General Tariff Agreement Transferred to WTO What about trade?

It's basically managed by the WTO worldwide.

Health is WHO And yet?

What about the international order?

It is by the United Nations The United Nations cannot control the United States and the Soviet Union But the Americans themselves are disciplined That means you won't do too much.

Will not invade small countries Even in the Soviet era It's just a country in the Warsaw Group This one.

But what about now?

That order is completely broken.

United Nations The WTO is completely dead.

Now the rules only work for weak countries This one.

This is not just about Russia attacking Ukraine You see yes That is to say It seems that the United States is doing this to Venezuela now It was unimaginable before These examples start What about the weak countries?

Is very dangerous As long as you are a regional power No one dares to stop you from doing anything Here it is.

Let's go back World Order Without Police Became a law of the jungle The world is entering a state of low trust People don't trust each other United States This is an exit.

It means I'm not going to be the world's police anymore He doesn't want to care about Europe He doesn't want to care about Europe Don't say Africa.

Is he focused or is it critical to his interests?

This one.

Western Pacific It's Taiwan.

Then he went back.

Go back to the Monroe Doctrine Just go back to his own Latin America We see the world Never seen Last year there were two Two or three major wars broke out This you can't imagine This one.

Russo-Ukrainian War For four years Over a million casualties This took so long to go to the First World War This Israel Israeli-Arab War It caused more than 60,000 casualties It was before the Second World War.

The entire Middle East war adds up That is, the several wars in Israel did not add up to so many deaths.

Can you guess?

Aren't those big wars?

Then Israel With Iran This is a collision of sovereign states Go to And the United States intervened to bomb Iran Here they are.

both It was a serious accident.

Don't mention Israel Hit Lebanon Syria Then Syria has a civil war These things Don't talk about two dozen endemic conflicts in Africa.

And the United States suddenly went to fight Nigeria These densities increase Is density You're out of sight.

I don't know how.

In fact, this Not chaos Because the old system is dead This one.

Once the United States doesn't care Europe is powerless Then the world The order is chaotic And the United States is leading the way in disrupting that order.

The United States does not speak of these international laws either Hit Venezuela Just bombed Venezuela again A piece of land Here you go.

Donald Trump is trying to blow up a piece of land for you to see You don't talk Just blow up the pier Oh.

If it explodes I like to fry anywhere This can be fried anywhere.

And you don't believe it either This is acceptable for countries like Haiti Ruled by gangsters No one cares No one in the world The new order is not yet formed What if a new order takes shape?

Oh.

Is that so?

America says quit You take care of yourself That's how So that was Europe.

The great powers returned to Europe Is that so?

Then how to dismantle Split him with Oz four four six six China takes care of it all.

China is right.

The Pacific is big.

Can accommodate two countries The Western Pacific is managed by China China must annex Taiwan Then Japan and South Korea Kick into China's sphere of influence Therefore, ASEAN countries Take the lead for China It became a world like this It's just that some places call for hegemony

If you say it is the United States, you will continue to control it.

This American It's totally American.

America becomes America's backyard There are also many contradictions that were originally suppressed by the big powers Keep erupting This one.

It's like This Azerbaijan And Armenia.

This one.

And India and Pakistan.

Hit every year Hit every year Then this Indonesia Will there be another conflict with East Timor?

We must ask these questions It really is.

This is the death of the old system What about the new system?

Not established In fact, these things Everything.

fundamentally The most basic reason It's globalization.

There was a reaction This global integration The earth is flat This thing It's been 40 or 50 years.

This global integration It involves a couple of things.

first It's the world cutting tariffs to very low levels.

Before this tariff war The U.S. tariff is 2.5 percent.

The U.S. tariff is 2.5 percent.

China is also only 4-5% Europe is 3-4% We've lowered tariffs on manufacturing to very low levels.

That capital moves freely You can do business in any country Everyone does business That is.

Everyone reduce this intervention But what's the result?

This global integration Really, we see that the world's trade is Increasing rapidly The overall GDP growth of the world Because globalization is increasing by half a percent every year.

Accumulated over decades Very significant benefits But global integration Benefits are unevenly distributed There are winners and losers Who benefits from global integration?

And this is what happens.

Those big companies multinational enterprise They can mobilize capital at any time Wall Street Hi-Tech Company Is the most powerful Because of these two things The flow of finance is the fastest High tech?

You are actually a public good High-tech is You, especially the software When you expand it The required transaction costs are very low So it's very easy to go around the world.

The world is easy to dominate And in doing so They are in developing countries Can be expanded You can get a lot of benefits.

so Invest in them People who buy their stocks The bourgeoisie It's all very cheap Who will pay the price?

Those are the ones.

Because of the flow of capital So those High-paying blue-collar class Those manufacturing industries Just making cars and so on Make steel and so on These would have been high-paying positions Just go all Low wage Low regulation Low environmental protection Places with low human rights

So those are the losers.

It's not just unemployment.

That you make one 30 years at Ford Tell you to be a McDonald's That's it.

How about this one?

It's middle class people like them It is already The collapse of life And there is Under these circumstances When the economic environment becomes severe He can easily cause This identity worries Just feel own that Self-identification Is to question That is.

feel Especially white people There's clearly an identity worry.

What is it because of?

They're having fewer babies.

So there was a lot of immigration.

Those immigrants seem to come from some more hostile countries For example Arab States This Muslim country This is a more hostile country Even if it comes from a less hostile country he Can come from India Indian You think his cultural nuance is too big for you So you think

Slowly I lost my identity.

We white Christians We are all about family We are talking about Reasonable Hello I feel like I have an identity crisis so Plus the loss of their blue-collar jobs They get the same Come to the conclusion that These people brought

their Their benefits are not enough It was brought by immigrants So it's xenophobic So it's xenophobic There is also a reaction to liberalism This liberalism In the past few decades This neo-Marxism Except for this Equality between this race

Yes, it's because there is a lot of inequality between races It used to be that black people were slaves We need to be nice to him.

White people are responsible for remediation There is a sense of guilt There is a sense of original guilt Then the whites colonized Overlord Bullied others So we're going to give them more.

Of course it is This gender equality Gender equality That's it. That's right.

That's it. That's right.

This gender Transgender tolerance It just can't be said to hurt someone's race Gender etc. So he Constitutes a set of political correctness This political correctness You should say so He is traditional

Especially those who are very Christian Morals are conflicting.

Is a conflict In the past 20 or 30 years This political correctness of liberalism It controls the media.

He is not in control He's got all the press.

And academic institutions Therefore Just those people Against these People who speak traditional ideas I think he's depressed.

Therefore They hate it so much I just feel that my son is Back to middle school Because he will tell him to be transgender She came back as a daughter That's it.

And he said he was tolerant Because of this liberalism It's about race Tolerance for culture So I feel That is.

So that's it.

You meet other people's communities.

Invade your community So that's it.

You think the order is out of order The order in the streets is chaotic This one.

Threat to law and order In America.

Division is the most powerful Split into two countries I'm talking about benefiting from those All on the east and west coasts The east coast is New York New York You see those multinational corporations It's where Wall Street is.

Those large multinational corporations At this one.

Those who control the capital are on the east coast The people who control high tech are on the West Bank These two kinds of people Global integration In addition to making foreign money And Because of global integration The imported goods are cheap.

Their lives have improved dramatically But those in the middle It's exactly this.

Here it is.

loser This loser That result Until Trump shows up These two The United States is divided into two parts Is a complete collision Trump is not the cause, it's the effect That is to say, I also say that this great man This man should not be said to be great Is to see the needs of the times

And he speaks for the times So many people are on his side Stand by his side And he started that trend.

During the first term I don't see Trump being so anti-immigrant So racist I just know now Legal immigrants should also be excluded So he says.

America doesn't need immigrants If the United States Early in the morning, his method required no immigration.

That would be bad.

No Bill Gates.

Bill Gates' father is a Syrian immigrant The ones he hates the most Elon Musk is a South African immigrant And Tesla Nicholas Tesla Where are you from?

Nicholas Tesla All Eastern Europeans You know what?

If you want to rule out It excludes many geniuses That populist And because he speaks on behalf of these people Elon Musk says other things Never mind Just because He helped them speak their minds.

But directly to their request Become an action Is to turn that anger into It's politicized.

It became a movement.

This is sports.

This one tomorrow.

Even without Donald Trump Vance And Donald Trump's son Will continue to lead this movement This movement is not going away anytime soon Is there such a thing in Europe?

Some in Europe So there's the AfD.

Reform UK France Marine Le Pen But what about Europe?

This thing is repressed Why is that?

Because of two things His right wing will never rise to control the country Why is that?

Because the welfare in Europe is better What about those people?

Just don't feel like yourself Will be deprived so much Europe is much more egalitarian So incite those people It's not that easy That's the first thing.

And second?

What about Europe?

That is.

Because of World War II Victims of Nazi fascism They have a general fear of these things It looks like a shot Because he's already had a major seizure Who said that?

How about in Europe?

The entire mainframe society is against it together What happened?

America and Europe It's on different levels.

America has turned to these right-wing leaders What about Europe?

These rightists are repressed So Trump said We are with Europe Can't get along Europe is our enemy More than Russia When America and Europe The two largest economies It's time to divide It is even less capable of leading the world The Western alliance is no longer stable

No longer stable Do your own thing Here it is.

They don't trust each other.

And explain Trump and Vance explain For European culture It's equal to the hatred of liberals in the United States Is far more than hatred of dictators Then another Rise at the same time The United States has lost its ally And his moral leadership China sees it as an opportunity

The Rise of China The United States retaliated with tariffs Technology blockade And China goes to the world Use him China has an unparalleled industrial execution force Industrial manufacturing power 30 percent of the world's industrial manufacturing.

Take advantage of this mature industrial power I must feel America and Europe are divided again This time I want to fight against America And fought with America The key issue is Taiwan Second point The 2025 review is that ChatGPT out in 2023 The first year of AI

I've been doing this for two years now.

It's rapid acceleration.

AI 2025 has begun to enter the practical level This has two levels.

First, AI agents have carried out the implementation level He can help you.

Not just to give you an idea Chat with you Can be executed Those are called AI agents The second is You have started to unfold AI with a body Or AI that interacts with the physical world.

AI's ability to explode Can tell you It's different every month.

It's something that humans have never tried before.

The knowledge ability can explode so much This is called In fact, it is the fifth wave of intellectual explosion Fifth Wave What was the first wave?

Invented speech Invented speech The second wave is the invention of writing.

You have text.

Of course there is culture Third Wave Just invented Industrial society This electric and industrial society The fourth wave is the Internet AI is the fifth wave And the fifth wave is more violent than the previous waves Why is that?

Because now our world With the Internet, these Broadcast power is different than before In terms of industrialization Is the invention of the steam engine You can push it all over the world.

About seventy years This will take about a hundred years.

As for electricity Sixty or seventy years Only the world You get electrification.

It's happening in the Internet age.

For more than 30 years For more than ten or twenty years And this is expected to sweep the world within a decade This completely affects everyone's work.

And economic structure The world will be divided into two categories of countries Countries with and without AI Those AIs cost a lot of money.

However, whether it is a data center or not GPU is fine.

These computing power Hello computing power Great country And countries without AI Became two worlds Became two worlds That is to say, the first thing AI brings you is wisdom And wisdom And the wise and the unwise.

This is a world apart.

I can tell you.

It's an exponential difference.

AI-developed countries Compared to countries without AI Totally two levels And what is the most serious?

It used to depend on wages You go to low-cost countries.

Develop industry And bring their economy together The same is true of East Asia.

The same is true of China.

The same is true of South Asia.

Not anymore.

After two years, it was all robots.

so Poor countries sell their resources Let you get outside the mine Is completely useless It is more difficult for them to develop their economy Hong Kong is bad Hong Kong Year 2019 The old order in Hong Kong has collapsed

Hong Kong has always relied on its high freedom and the rule of law The order fell apart Become a national security first I accepted the Chinese set.

And the Chinese set has completely enveloped Hong Kong So Hong Kong lost its advantage The uniqueness of Hong Kong does not exist So his utilization value is very small He connected to China before.

Because he is He is in China.

But he is not in China.

He has a foreign system.

so He is He takes advantage of both ends His geography is in China But he is Western in thought so He has the West again Get the discount given to him by the West again However, he is geographically close to China have an advantage Culturally close to China

Now it's a bat.

Even an animal doesn't recognize him as an animal The bird doesn't recognize him as a bird either You know what?

Now Hong Kong is an immortal city Yes and can't find that location And this special administrative region government Just because they are completely committed to the implementation of national security The deficit in Hong Kong population decline Racial conflict The Pain of Political Thinking

There's no solution.

The underlying logic of the new world has changed The old world was about integration and division of labor.

The new world is localization plus AI.

Hong Kong must answer again What the hell are we doing?

This is the reaction of 2025