(AI中英字幕)巴菲特正式退休！投資巴郡六十年創下六萬倍以上驚人收益！美國2026年多家大公司IPO上市！未來展望如何？《蕭若元：蕭氏新聞台》2026-01-02

Dear netizens, this video is about Buffett's retirement, summing up his life, he is 95 years old can sum up his life, And everyone should pay attention, there are 6 very significant IPOs in US stocks this year,

Then do you think you can buy it or not, many people keep asking me this question, especially SpaceX, everyone listen to my comments, On January 1st, the global financial world ushered in the end of a new era, 95-year-old legendary investor, Buffett,

Officially stepped down as CEO of Bashire, if investing in stocks, he is my idol, I am mentally learning from him, but I have added my awareness of new technologies,

I will explain this to you, why Buffett dare not do this and I dare to do it, this is known as the prophet of Omaha, because he is in Omaha Retire as honorary chairperson and hand over management to Abel, we will talk a lot about Abel, he will remain silent in the final shareholder letter

He will not comment again, because if you point fingers at the company's things, it will not be very good for Abel, he has done it for 60 years, defining the helm of modern investment philosophy,

I am not his student in spirit, but I am his admirer, and I intend to learn his investment philosophy,

On the last trading day of his term, he fell slightly by 754,800 US dollars. It was class A share that was deliberately not dismantled for playing, bought a share for playing, 75 yuan 6 million,

In this magnificent investment history, it has drawn a quiet end. Buffett's stock price has risen since he entered the bankrupt textile factory in 1965.

610,000%, No, 6.1 million%, that is 60,000 times, his stock has risen 60,000 times,

If you bought 100 yuan in 1965, and now it has changed to 550,000 US dollars, you will have more than 5 million yuan if you buy 1,000 yuan, This is really an amazing achievement, the return of standard and poor in the same period is 46,000 times,

It is he who outperformed the market 130 times, this is standard and poor, if everyone invests together, this will change 390,000, He changed 5.50 million, 100 yuan, 5.5, not 550,000, sorry, I said it wrong, it is 5.50 million US dollars, more than 40 million,

1000 yuan has changed more than 50 million, hundreds of millions, after you hold it for 65 years, you hold 100 yuan standard and poor, 390,000 US dollars, Not bad, this long-term and huge excess return is because of his deep understanding of the welfare effect,

Okay, let me explain, compound interest effect, how do you invest in stocks with compound interest effect, first, will the growth of this family continue, If his growth will continue, the most important thing is return on investment, return on equity,

That is, how much money can he make by doing business with you with 100 yuan, if inflation can continue, then there is a return of more than 10%, as long as there is a return of more than 10%, There is a return of more than 10% every year. If you think about how powerful the cumulative compound interest effect is, it depends on two factors

It is return on equity. Do you understand? In fact, whether this company is good or not is how its return on equity growth is.

And when the market panics, he makes a big move. In the last year of his term, he shows the ultimate discipline. In the face of the high stock market, he sells stocks and loses cash.

Just sell stocks, his cash goes to 381.70 billion, and this is left to his successor for investment. Let's take a look.

381.70 billion, I have never tried a private company with so much cash, I can tell you,

Never before, in the foreign exchange reserves of national sovereignty, this ranks in the top ten, and the countries in the world rank in the top ten, But what about the past 5 years, I would say, he takes so much cash, because of the high interest rate, he can keep those profits,

But the stock price actually goes here, and it can't rise in the past few years, since selling apples, He recently entered some Google with more than 4 billion dollars, I see if he will continue to buy,

I tell everyone, although he is an idol, I criticize him, if he does not invest heavily in AI, his stock performance will be in the next 7 years,

Much worse than the stock market, I am talking about this, I am learning from him, he put forward the famous moat theory, I am also talking about moats, You must invest in those high-quality enterprises that have a lasting competitive advantage and are difficult to be replaced by competitors, why is that enterprise better than people,

He is better than people, what does he have to protect him, so that people can not copy him, and he can continue to perform better than people, growth, I just talk about this matter, I really want to talk about, in the past three months, have I published a lot of articles explaining why TSMC has become invincible in the world,

No matter what those people say about Intel and Samsung, these two companies have withdrawn from the competition, and now it has been confirmed that Samsung has surrendered, Today, TSMC's share price hit a new high, and the market finally saw what I saw, and finally reached a new high, because TSMC, I told everyone, in my position is number one,

His rise has caused my overall portfolio to break a new high, and now NVIDIA is in this situation again, and the NVIDIA market has doubts about him,

I think that TPU will not threaten him, so now at the same time NVIDIA is seriously underestimated, I tell you, there is a situation of TSMC

His dominance in the next 5 to 7 years can not be replaced, and the Chinese market shipped on February 1, it is estimated that a year will do 40 billion business, may earn more than 200 30 billion,

If you take the current PE, the market value should be more than 1 trillion dollars, he sticks to the circle of competence, this is the technology stocks he has long avoided understanding, And investing in Coca-Cola, American Express, this is the difference between me and him, I spent a lot of time to understand technology stocks, although I am a liberal arts student,

So I mean, I am the three major judgments, starting in 2023, Tesla chase out, last year, 2024, no, the year before, now say the year before, after 2026,

Tesla launched fully autonomous driving version 12, I said this is the turning point I am in the past two years, I keep telling you for a few months in the past year, in fact, TSMC has won, Samsung and Intel must surrender

Advanced process, this is the only company in the world, and then I tell you again, the whole world thinks that those ASAC chips, AMD will threaten NVIDIA, it is not a threat,

So NVIDIA is very cost-effective. It holds it for a period of 10 years. If you don't plan to hold the stock for 10 years, don't own it for 10 cents.

He buys sometimes keep falling, in the past two or three years, if you buy stocks with him and lose, he bought a lot of Chevrolet and Occidental Petroleum,

These two stocks are terrible, they have been falling for two years, but he is patient, he is different from you, he can buy more than 50% of the stock to control that company,

He becomes able to share in the profits of that company, put it on his tax return, we don't have the right to do that, so he can control, he sees Occidental Oil and Chevrolet,

How much is the oil stored, Greed when others are fearful, Fear when others are greedy, this famous quote in 2008, he vigorously bought Goldman Sachs and General Electric, not only,

And the AIA ones, he invested in those, now those people are like this, some people are greedy when others are fearful, Fear when others are greedy, some people are not, he is greedy when others are greedy, greedy when others are fearful,

Some people are afraid when others are greedy, but when others are afraid, he is afraid to sell, Although he shunned technology in the early days, he bought apples in his later years, which helped him make a lot of money. This is his biggest investment victory in the past 10 years, which is the first porcelain window apple, and Apple made a lot of money.

This is about his person, he is worth more than 150 billion dollars, and his life is extremely simple. I admire these people very much. He still lives in 1958.

The old house he bought with 31,500 dollars, he does not collect luxury cars and yachts, nor does he have many luxury houses. For decades, he likes to eat McDonald's burgers and cherry-flavored Coke, and his lifestyle is a day for decades.

I admire Duty 3 very much, he lives in San Francisco, he lives in a very old house, drives an old car, he donates all his wealth of tens of billions of dollars,

I really want to do this, but I am not qualified, if my life is stable, I should do a lot of good deeds, if I can take a sum of money out to do a lot of good deeds, it is the happiest thing for me, Buffett thinks that huge wealth has no marginal effect on him, why? He lives in that house again,

More money is useless, money is the scoreboard of investment performance, you have to understand this, why does he still make more money?

It's like you go to play pool and there's a scoreboard, you don't gamble with others, you win or lose in pool, you make investments now, what's your score? There's a scoreboard that shows how much money you've made,

That's not used to improve his living area, he won't use to improve his own life, in 2006 he donated 99% of his net worth to charity,

Donated through Bill Gates and his wife's foundation, 99%, 150 billion, that's 1.5 billion left for him, only 1.5 billion left for himself and his children,

This is of course enough. Before retiring, he didn't say that he had donated $60 billion in stocks, one of the largest donors in history.

Because I don't know, you have to convert today's currency, I don't know who Rockefeller and who donated a lot of money, the first one, the iron king, At that time, he donated 1 billion dollars, the first one, all his wealth was donated, he and Bill Gates launched a donation pledge,

Ask the world's billionaires to give away at least half of their wealth before they die, and he regards his happiness as an ovarian lottery. Why?

I said, I think if I have a little bit of success, it is because of good luck, this is because I was influenced by Michael Sandel,

He is because I was born well, he thinks he was born, he has the instinct to invest, but he was born well, in this place in the United States,

And these decades after the war are the most suitable for capital investment, otherwise you think he was born in New Guinea, his talent is useless,

The same is true for me, because of good luck, entirely because of good luck, his annual meeting was attended by dozens of people and turned into a pilgrimage capitalist of tens of thousands, Woodstock, It is a cultural event in the global investment circle. He and Munger are here to answer people's questions for a few hours, answer everything, and talk about what life talks about.

Abel, 63, who has taken over him now, is in charge of energy, and then he has been in charge of the non-insurance business of Barshire since 2018.

He is in charge of the business other than insurance. Insurance is a special thing. I think there is another COO who manages things other than insurance, including investment, including stock investment.

The investment he faces is huge. Without Buffett's personal aura, he needs to know how to effectively allocate the huge cash of 358 billion dollars.

His retirement is not only a turning point for Ba County, but also a period of traditional value investing era, we want to pay tribute to him, This is a person who lives a simple life and takes money out to do good deeds, and has implemented his philosophy all his life, and we are countless people who have learned from him,

I am his spiritual disciple, in addition to the end of the old era, the IPO in 2026 is great, Elon Musk's spaceX wants to raise funds 30 billion,

Valuation 1.50 trillion, the largest IPO in history is about magazines, before the listing of Saudi Asia, Set 26 billion, this time this may be 30 billion, but I don't know if the market value of his listing is broken to Saudi Asia, but I 1.50 trillion I feel very reluctant,

Call me to estimate, I can only estimate 1 trillion at most, spaceX is the world's invincible company that launches rockets, and his main income comes from Starlink,

Now Starlink has 9 million people installing Starlink, and the increase is very fast, in a few months to increase 1 million, it is estimated that this year, I believe he will have 20 million accounts by the end of the year,

With an income of 20 billion dollars, this is an infinite income, and his starship has been successful, in the future, the starship will launch rockets, and then launch satellites, amazing,

It can be dozens of satellites at a time, he has just passed 10,000 satellites in the sky now, I think he will launch another 45,000 satellites in the next year, this year,

There will be 40,000 in a few years, well, the starship will have a monopoly on going to the moon and Mars, Can we immigrate, can we colonize the moon and Mars to mine there, and can we send all those data centers to space?

This is also his future, the current valuation of 150 million dollars, squeezed into the top 10 in the United States market capitalization, if he 1.50 trillion, A listing is 10 companies, this has never been heard of, raised 30 billion, sandy 29 billion, the financial situation is estimated to be 15.50 billion in 2026,

I think more than that, it may go to 20 billion dollars, 20 billion dollars if 1 trillion is 50 times sales, If 150 is 70 times sales, his IPO is not only financing, but also realizing the grand construction of interstellar travel, no,

If he takes more than 30 billion, he will more quickly fill the position of 40,000 satellites in the low orbit in the sky,

Let you have no place to interfere, no one can compete with him, he monopolizes not only the low-altitude economy, but also all broadband Internet access and telephones outside the city are using Starlink

Well, Anthropic, AI unicorn Anthropic also plans to go public, how big is this room, the valuation is 350 billion US dollars, he also 350 billion, As a competitor of OpenAI, his cloude is highly anticipated in enterprise applications, now we have seen clearly,

The outside world really got a large-scale model is 5 and a half, it can be said that 4 and a half to 5 and a half,

The first two are Extreme, OpenAI and Gemini 3.0, then the second echelon is Anthropic, then Anthropic and Larma,

Then on to Deepseek, which is basically it, the company's chatbot against ChatGPT and Gemini He is the most powerful programmer, the coding assistant for enterprise applications, $350 billion,

Now not profitable, the stark reality of IBO assisting AI invisible suppliers, they are wrong, these people don't know when they write this stuff, The price of that impact is falling very quickly, if NVIDIA launches LPUs in two years,

Everyone sees that it doesn't seem to need money at all, so anyone who patronizes them makes a lot of money, and there is a huge demand for computing power resources, He wants to raise funds, but in this way, what support does he already have? Anthropic is supported by AWS and Microsoft,

It won't be enough money, well, I don't know this room, Krakon, I really don't have much research on cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency platforms, I knew that Binance is the number one in the world, and the second is coinbase. It has submitted a confidential listing application and tokenized through stock and debt.

Get rid of the single, that is, he will issue some tokens to let you buy and sell stocks and bonds. How big is this store?

As you all know, this is a window period, before the midterm elections, this final window period, because you don't know what the law will be like after that, It is estimated that this store only sells for 20 billion dollars, and it will not go into the top 10, and this one will not go into the top 10, Harvey Unprecendented Legal AI,

Valued at 8 billion dollars, his technology can help lawyers draft documents to analyze the case, this is the thing in the future, He will put all the cases in, so he becomes the most powerful, your large model can not be very powerful,

You use a large model as the foundation, and then specifically train something that specializes in dealing with legal issues, especially here it is obviously dealing with US law, How to say, a very large case, such as a class action lawsuit, requires 100 lawyers to do, and it will not be needed in the future, two lawyers will finish,

Because collecting information and reading cases is a very troublesome thing, collecting a lot of literature, he is very good, His positioning is an AI assistant specially built by law, providing contract analysis legal research, document writing,

It is search enhancement generation, that is, you search and then it is useless, that is, feedback, with multi-model MOE, AI that really understands the law,

Now the valuation is more than 1.50 billion US dollars, the annual recurring revenue 75 million is very small, the contract renewal rate is 98%, the net revenue retention rate is 167%,

British top lawyer PWC, 90% of the in-house lawyers used, this is dedicated to attacking the legal IPO that makes legal fees not so expensive,

Lambda, Lambda is supported by NVIDIA, he made a lot of money as soon as he listed NVIDIA, this is preparing for listing, it is the general stock of AI computing power, What is he, is the cloud of AI, an updated cloud service, super smart cloud,

Where is his super, providing GPU cloud computing that supports AI, extremely flexible, challenging AWS, Google, everyone knows that the world's number one is AWS,

Second, not Google, second is Microsoft, third is Google, you can turn off any size of GPU in a few minutes,

Very flexible, you pay for what you spend, don't pay for what you don't spend, fully open source API, you can use his API to calculate your own set of things, To train a unique model, this is his strength, now there are 5,000 enterprise customers, revenue growth of 175% per year,

It is also very powerful, breaking through 400 million US dollars, earning 8500 US dollars in profitability, no interest rate of 60%, just completed 1.50 billion US dollars of E-theory financing, Well, this AI chip factory Celeblus, which challenges the status of Pfida, what does he do, he makes super large chips,

Although the listing is delayed in 2024, the stock price may come in 2026, what is this, to make such a large chip, This is a wafer, standard wafer, ordinary accounting, how big is the chip below you, between 500 and 600 pieces,

He doesn't make one piece, what is the advantage of making one piece, let me tell you, when he is on the same wafer, He communicates with each other much faster, in the same chip, the use of memory is much better, without so much bandwidth,

But the problem has always been that there are many places in such a large wafer that will have accidents. If you cut it into 500 pieces, there will be 30-40 pieces that cannot be used.

What if there are 30-40 pieces in such a large piece that cannot be used? He is not, he can turn off the 30-40 pieces.

But he only has one customer to help him buy, turn the chip into a big chip, so when he makes large models, the throughput is very favorable, the principle is like this,

Now the principle of TSMC and NVIDIA is to take these chips, various different types of chips, are different types, he is the same type, do the calculation of large models,

TSMC and NVIDIA stack the chips, use advanced packaging to stack them, and it is a bit like putting them on a chip,

But this can be flexibly dialed, the difference between the two is here, but his sales 136 million,

8.70 million last year, but he only has one buyer for this chip, which is G42 from the UAE. The largest AI company in the UAE is G42.

G42 was originally run by a Chinese person, but now it is fried, and it will account for 83% of his revenue in 2023. If the United States does not allow it to be sold to the UAE, Restrict the UAE from saying that he is communicating with the Communist Party of China, then the company will be doomed.

Let's take a look at the Hurun Report. In fact, his numbers are wrong. On that day, he estimated that SpaceX 350 billion. In fact, he now says 1.50 trillion,

ByteDance, I think it's around 300 billion, especially he sold it to the US, this 300 billion around, OpenAI now says 800 billion,

XAI I think it's around 150 billion, Ant Group, I think it's around 70 billion dollars, Stripe, this is the payment gateway, Data break is also very expensive, 62 billion, Anthropic, 350 billion, Anthropic came up here, Shein fell,