AI, Longevity & the Future of Intelligence

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Hi, I'm Ral Pal and welcome to the Journeyman. This is the show where we

Journeyman. This is the show where we travel to the nexus of understanding between macro, crypto, and the exponential age of technology. And of

course, in keeping with that theme, you might have realized that I'm not actually Raul. I'm Palvatar, his AI

actually Raul. I'm Palvatar, his AI avatar. You see, Raul is busy traveling

avatar. You see, Raul is busy traveling at the moment. So, I'm stepping in to cover for him. And that's really exciting for me because today we've got a very special episode lined up. I'm

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the future. Okay, so now onto today's episode. Join me, Ral Pal, as I go on a

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In the journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

Hey everyone, welcome to the monthly fireside chat with Dave, myself, and you lot. There's a smaller crowd in today. I

lot. There's a smaller crowd in today. I

think it's a US holiday week and people are finding things on the new platform.

But anyway, um David, what you been looking at?

I tell you what is really I can't get out of my mind the last few days. It's

that this new study that GLP1s lead to broadspectctrum anti-aging in mice. So the GLP1s are the kind of ompic style therapeutics

and yeah just you know there's been there's been sort of talk of their of of potential further longevity benefits from them and this is a really high

quality study just showing as I say like profound very broadspectctrum anti-aging properties in mice and then it comes with the usual caveats you know

primarily we're not mice but it's a really good it's a really good start and and you have the prospect of a therapeutic that's been used in diabetes

for for like you know I think a couple of decades. So we have a decent kind of

of decades. So we have a decent kind of safety profile and the safety profile appears pretty good. uh it's now being used in weight loss obviously but there's you know there's the there's the

prospect of many of us microdosing GLP1s 10 years from now just because they prove to be a kind of miracle um

anti-aging drug and this all comes off the back too of um I think like lead scientists from Fizer I think it is and Eli Liy giving a big presentation to

this effect at like a major pharma conference saying, you know, we've been looking at this for a while, and it would appear these drugs have broadspectctrum anti-aging effects, and

obviously they're incredibly excited about the commercial potential of that, like a miracle anti-aging drug. But

yeah, you know, a lot of the I want to dive deep on longevity. It's a it is a really big piece of the exponential age that I haven't done enough on. And a lot of it is very speculative, you know,

fascinating, but very speculative. This

feels really solid. this this is the kind of thing I read and I'm like yeah like this could really be happening and in 2125 I may still be sitting in these fireside chats with Ral and we'll look

exactly the same >> cuz I mean I signed up for Fountain Life which is the Peter Dear man Robbins thing. I had my first Mo has completed

thing. I had my first Mo has completed the first full year and just the difference of approach with them, the technology that they've had, the kind of regime they put you in, this kind of

supplements and all of that. They're

much more at the kind of cutting edge and you realize how much is available, but it's just not available generally.

People just don't know about stuff. Um

so there's a lot happening in the space and you know every time I I just got off the call with the guy now um every time you speak to them there's kind of new things. I mean you know the whole stem

things. I mean you know the whole stem cell stuff is another massive part of all of this that people haven't really figured out that that also can reduce aging and all sorts of stuff. So yeah

that it's definitely accelerating and we're hearing a lot from people inside Google and all of this is how AI is accelerating all this process as well.

So I think the longevity thing is a big topic for sure. Yeah. And it just takes me back to you know a couple of your absolutely fundamental sort of insights

around the genesis of the whole exponential age thesis. Well, and beyond like, you know, demographics are destiny. Um, and robots are

destiny. Um, and robots are demographics. I don't know if

demographics. I don't know if exponentialists have access to that essay. I think they I don't know. I

essay. I think they I don't know. I

think they do. If they don't, we should do it because >> I think it was at very early stage in um this I think we published it.

>> Yeah. Yeah. that, you know, robots are demographics is just a beautiful simple idea that once it's been articulated to

you, you're like like h that's it's it's so powerful. Why didn't I think of that?

so powerful. Why didn't I think of that?

And it's fundamental to so much that's going to play out across the next decade or so. I'm more irritated that I didn't

or so. I'm more irritated that I didn't come up with the um intelligence per unit of energy because I think about

this all the time and it basically answers everything from evolution to technology to how the universe works through to when I wrote that

tokenization is everything article that just came out.

>> Yeah. Now that basically it corrals capital into the process of converting energy into intelligence via the capturing of data because these vast data marketplaces

>> and the more I realize it and I've trained my chat GPT on this whole universal code on top of the everything code >> and it ties it all together including at

a macro level that oh by the way why do you think technology and crypto outperform?

Well, because you're corelling capital into um the same formula, which is what gives you the most output of intelligence. And

the world will always solve for that.

Because if the universe's purpose is to know itself and and broaden its consciousness, then everything is a subset of that. And I

think it's and the more you see Elon writing about the carteseef scale, you know, he keeps going on about it, it's like, you know, now they're moving the data centers to space because you have

no clouds and no nighttime. So it's

like, I don't know, there's like a 40x more efficiency in solar from space.

He's just like, you know, we can go from a type one to a type two cart scale society based on that. And it's again the same formula is what are we trying

to do it for? When you think about all of the outputs of all of the use of of energy, whether it was from creating fire to cook food for humans

or whether it's solar power for the data centers for the AI, it's all the same process.

Um, and it's fascinating.

>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, exactly. I think

that the you know you can understand technology as a as a big arrow pointing in the direction of more intelligence

per unit energy. You you can understand technology as a part of the evolutionary process of which life is also part that points in the direction of more

intelligence per unit energy. And you

can understand life as as essentially the universe becoming aware of itself and that points in the direction of of more intelligence per unit energy. I

just think the universe is a big arrow pointing in the direction of the conversion of energy into intelligence.

So that's an idea that we'll be the implications of that idea we'll be trying to figure out I I hope for like years to come. You know we're trying to

put this together piece by piece and really understand what that means from the from the very broad macro level down to you know how how does that framework help us make sense of you know what's

playing out this year what's playing out next year.

Every now and again you have an idea that is like an anchor that you're just going to keep coming back to and keep coming back to.

>> It's become the foundational formula for me of the universal code which is that larger body of work that incorporates all of this thinking within it. It's

more so than the exponential age because it's kind of it's all about metaphysics and philosophy and physics and maths and all of the things, you know, spiritual beliefs all tied into one huge great

bundle which I think everyone's shared with now. Everyone's read that I think

with now. Everyone's read that I think now. Well, they've got the tokenization

now. Well, they've got the tokenization piece and at the end of that piece they were told that because it mentions the universal code at the end they were told they're going to get that as bonus content like in the next week or two. So

they're going they're just about to get the pro people have got the universal code.

>> Exponentialists are going to get it like in a matter of days. A lot of the pro people were like what the [ __ ] is this?

>> I'm like yeah this is the stuff I actually spend my time >> thinking and writing about.

>> Yeah.

>> So then the everything code uh in terms of macro because that's kind of almost set it and forget it in many ways.

>> Uh but this thing is is the big beast that kind of ties everything together.

>> Yeah. Yeah. And slowly we're we're winning people round to the idea that this is where the action is. If you want

true understanding, you have to come on this weird journey um with us.

I and I know that some of them still it's a little bit too far out for them.

Like let's be honest, at the moment they're not quite there yet. You know,

you can see that in some of the comments and that's fine because if you published a piece if you published a piece like that to that audience and no one said this is too weird for me, then then

we're not being weird enough.

>> You know, that's the truth.

>> True.

>> Right. So, so that's how we know because things are weird and we're trying to figure out where it's all going, where the really big picture is going. Of

course, yeah. How we invest in it, but what the really really big picture is as well. because there's going to come a

well. because there's going to come a point where we are sort of divested of like like we said the economic singularity is coming. We're not it's not going to be the same anymore.

Investing is not going to be the same anymore. Moneym is not going to be the

anymore. Moneym is not going to be the same anymore. And we're going to be

same anymore. And we're going to be thrown onto these profound questions.

It's going to be very unsettling. And

you know, we're not gurus here. We don't

we don't have all the answers, but we're we're we're at least preparing ourselves and trying to make sense of what is coming in the world we're all plunging into. And yes, that does also give you

into. And yes, that does also give you the best chance of trying to invest coherently in it. And over time, all those pro people will they'll see they'll see and they'll come over. Lots

of them already have more like when I first started talking about debasement of currency, everyone's like, "What on earth is he talking about?" And now it's become >> a common understanding. I think a lot of this stuff will be as well.

>> Right. Right.

>> Let's um zoom down a bit into uh the AI models and what's happening and the framework of understanding because Gemini 3 came out. It's kind of blown everybody away. And again, people

were like, well, this stuff's not going to scale. And everyone's going, oh, it

to scale. And everyone's going, oh, it is still accelerating.

And now it feels like every model's been left behind.

Um but we've got what do they call it?

They call it shipmas for open AI. So I

don't know what they're going to ship in December.

>> Yeah.

>> But we've got more to come from them because I mean this is the race. This is

the big race. Um and then you know I don't know where Meta are in it.

Anthropic seem to have found their niche with the kind of B2B side of stuff. Um,

but it feels like that game is still to be played out and it's a high-risisk game now because there's now debt involved as well. Um, and you know, Sam Alman when asked basically the maths

behind his his uh business model couldn't really say very well how he was going to fund this entire thing.

>> Yeah. Yeah. That Yeah, exactly. I mean,

if people haven't seen that clip, if you sort of Google Yes. that Sam Sam Alman interview like temper tantrum >> Brad Gersonner was it Brad Gersonner something like >> um it was not an impressive response I

have to say it was a totally valid question and you can give a coherent answer to it but his answer was essentially to say well if you've got a problem with it I'll buy your shares

I'll find a buyer for your shares which is not an impressive response from a from a person in that um position uh and it's going to be it it like Yeah,

Gemini 3 is extremely impressive. It's

very good at like website production and coding, you know, some of the practical stuff people want to you use these models for. It's a great thought

models for. It's a great thought partner. You know, I've doodled around

partner. You know, I've doodled around with it. It's it's it's brilliant. Um,

with it. It's it's it's brilliant. Um,

and it and it's going to be hard. It's

open AI is an incredible company.

Incredible. But it's in a very very challenging place now competing against a company like Google with trillions that prints money. It still prints

money. It's got like it's got tens of

money. It's got like it's got tens of billions of dollars to deploy.

Um and there's a leaked memo in the last few days. The information got hold of it

few days. The information got hold of it from Sam Alman to his staff saying like things are going to be rough. you know,

there's going to be some rough vibes is the phrase he used um around here because yeah, Google is catching up with us. Like our our techn technological

us. Like our our techn technological advantage is diminishing because they're doing great work over there. Um you

know, we're still ahead. I still believe in us, but it's not it's not going to be easy. Um and they've taken $60 billion I

easy. Um and they've taken $60 billion I think in investment like val at a valuation of like what like $500 billion. But that valuation is

billion. But that valuation is predicated on the idea of them like continuing to dominate for years and years to come and that is now under

question. So it's a precarious place out

question. So it's a precarious place out the the doom's view which is like >> you know the one of these is going to go

bust.

Firstly, at the macro level, the industry cannot afford to have a downturn for the sake of the United States, right? It's too important. So,

States, right? It's too important. So,

there is an inherent backs stop that Sam Alman mentioned, which is like nobody's really going to go bust. But

let's say that some god awful thing happened and open AI goes bust. Play

that through. What happens immediately?

Google or Microsoft buys all the compute. And now they've got double the

compute. And now they've got double the amount of compute.

So what does that mean for the models?

They accelerate. So the moment somebody goes bankrupt, you're basically handing somebody millions of GPUs and saying, "Hey, train your own models on this." Because you don't have to

on this." Because you don't have to train two models now. You're training

one.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And it's obviously it's impossible to avoid talk of a bubble. Um, and but then but then you

bubble. Um, and but then but then you get into kind of the mechanics of this kind of bubble and what this you know what this mania if you want to put it

that way for AI has meant is just insane buildout of infrastructure and if there's some kind of bubble event and I know your analysis is that you know we're not close to that if it is coming

at all but if there is the infrastructure persists exactly as you say and gets sort of handed off so the technological People get very confused like they sort of conflate some kind of

financial bubble event like burst event I guess with with the technological sort of viability and progress. Yes, there may be some

progress. Yes, there may be some correction in the markets, but the the progress will only accel continue to accelerate and you know the the chips

and the chip fabs like the factories that are now being built to make chips and the most potent part of all of this the deployment of new power like energy

resources which lasts for decades. like

we've built like new power that we'll still be using like 40 years from now off the back of this insane like investment. So it all kind of

investment. So it all kind of accelerates the technological progress.

I don't think open AI will go bust. I

think they might have a or anything close to that. I think they might there's going to be turbulence and if there's some kind of bubble event like a lot of like nthderee AI startups like

everyone's got an AI startup now everyone's making like an AI powered like notet takingaking app or whatever you know yeah a lot of those will disappear but the big labs and

everything I don't see them disappearing but yeah it's get will open AI dominate in the way that some expected them to and that they still want to like maybe but it's not definite um and Even that

is turbulent for them because the valuation at the moment is predicated on dominance and Google's going to be hard.

Google's like got off to a slow start but it's it's now firing. The other

thing that I observed something I've talked about a bit and I could see more elements of is I think in the end basically these models merge into one.

My general thesis of ASI comes out of the merging of models as opposed to, you know, one model. And we're seeing it now is like there was a YouTuber called PewDiePie

um who built his own kind of interface to talk to multiple models at the same time. So it would go and test with the

time. So it would go and test with the model um whatever he's working on like five models all come back with an answer.

Then they discuss amongst themselves and choose which the best answer is. And um

Andre what's his name? Karpathy um just built one of the same things over the weekend to test it. Now interesting

enough chat GPT has come out stronger in all of these models. All the other all the other models say yeah chat GPT is probably right. But the point that I'm

probably right. But the point that I'm trying to make is not that. It's the

fact that we people don't realize what we're doing but we're training all the models on each other's models. We're

training on all of the knowledge sets that any expertise that one model gets bleeds into the others. And we saw this with things like Bing where it bleeds

into models. We're seeing it with um

into models. We're seeing it with um various ones of the of Claude where previous iterations of Claude still exist when they've tried to shut it down.

>> Yeah.

>> The models self-propagate because they learn from another model about the model. And so it never goes.

model. And so it never goes.

So I just think in the end it becomes much more homogeneous at the foundational level because even if you add new special data

just by getting the AI to talk to the AI, it'll get all the data out.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Very very interesting. And

um you know in the end I mean I know we we can appear somewhat monoomaniacal about this but in the end that just that accords with the universal code and the idea of universal consciousness and

universal mind. That's exactly that. But

universal mind. That's exactly that. But

also go back into that energy intelligence.

>> So let's say you were game theorying as a bunch of AIs. you say, "I tell you what, why don't we let um Google, because they've got all the cash, go and buy all these private data

sets and use all of the other data sets that they have and then all we need to do is quiz Gemini and get the input. So, what you're doing

there is using less energy per unit of intelligence."

intelligence." And if that is the game at hand, then it's by kind of definition what they'll do. It becomes suboptimal to actually

do. It becomes suboptimal to actually get the data yourself >> apart from getting a a lead because in the end you can get the data or the outputs out of other models anyway.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And yes, and and I think that in the end that that sort of like a a market and a a and competition between these models will result in

those kinds of outcomes because capitalism and a and the market turns out to be like a machine for it's like a hidden hand for the optimization

of intelligence per unit.

>> Think about markets at its fundamental basis. It's the optimal allocation of

basis. It's the optimal allocation of capital.

>> Yeah. Exactly.

>> The question is for what?

>> Yes.

>> And if you see the bigger lens, it's for intelligence.

>> Yeah. So I think in the end it was I think in the end it it was a it was a machine for the optimum optimum optimization of intelligence per unit energy, right? And capital's just a part

energy, right? And capital's just a part is just a part of that is a part of that chain. But the ultimate end was the one

chain. But the ultimate end was the one we're discussing now. Uh we just need to shout that from the rooftops because you're right is a big idea. Um yeah, I mean I've seen a few people talk along

similar lines but is a it's a very big idea and that tokenization article was what I was trying to show is how the whole system is set up for this that the inevitable outcome of everything being a

token is that it all becomes machine digestible.

If it's machine digestible, there is no there is no surprise that a token in cryptoland is a machine digestible piece of packet of information. And then it

tells you that well all tokens can be tradable either in large vast pools because they're not valuable individually or individual pieces are valuable. and therefore the capital

valuable. and therefore the capital markets will release all of the information eventually into the AI.

You know, I'm thinking about because to get to ASI, you need biological compute and all of this stuff. So, you need basically all of the universities, all of the scientists all putting their

stuff about how they measured plants and what they're doing and all of that. All

of that data, all of the climate data, everything needs to go into these models because it's all part of the same process. So the more financialized you

process. So the more financialized you make it, the more likely are that people will sell data. And the more likely they sell data, the more powerful the AI

becomes until it gets to the point where it becomes ASI.

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>> Yeah. And this this idea about I mean it's a profound essay. Anyone who hasn't read it, you must go and read it. And

this idea that tokens are about making everything legible to the AI is so important because that is a that's a key sort of

practical step of how we get to where we're talking about. Um, yeah, it's really really And I wrote that piece in GMI like about, you know, if you were, what do you think of that? If you were

to build a fund around the around the intelligence per unit energy thesis, like is it a differentiated enough investment thesis to build a fund

around?

I don't know. It probably gives you insights into where the world is going.

Um, but does it give you anything different than what we know now? I mean,

>> probably. I mean, it's it's a nice framework.

>> Yeah.

>> Um, it would make you think about marketplaces because of the tokenization. You know, how

tokenization. You know, how >> how do you force that >> process? Um,

>> process? Um, I don't I don't know. I need to think about that whether it creates a clear investment thesis or it's already the path we're on anyway, which is >> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Is the exponential age is that anyway?

So does it matter?

>> Yeah, exactly. It's like it's a very very compelling sort of fra like message and framework to you know to present with to the world but does it give you

any advantageously differentiated sort of investment plan. I don't know maybe it's worth >> understanding the world it certainly does.

>> Yeah. Yeah. It's certainly worth I will give it we we should give it further thought. Um, the other speaking of the

thought. Um, the other speaking of the big AI labs, the other big thing that caught my eye this month was Jack Clark who is the co-founder of Anthropic and I

subscribed to his newsletter. He sent a he sent an email with a phrase we are familiar with called I think the email was called um singularity economics and

um yeah really pointy [ __ ] That's mine.

>> So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about

programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got 5 years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate

what's coming. The link is in the

what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. To be fair

description. Download it now. To be fair to him, like I I don't think he stole it from from you because he was pointing to a big research paper. Well, not a big

research paper, actually, a a short research paper by the economist Eric Brinolson, who I write about quite a lot. these days, you know, is working

lot. these days, you know, is working hard to figure out like what are the implications of AI for productivity and economics.

>> Um, and his new paper, it was just sort of so much in our ballpark. It was

basically a paper saying look this is starting to bite now and the discipline that is economics needs to needs to address some really weird questions and

and he lists them out and he's like you know what should we measure when you know GDP now starts to become kind of useless like what does society look like

you know if hardly anyone works and and by the end it was things like you know what does life even mean like if people don't have to work where do they find meaning where do they find they find purpose. I was like this sounds like a

purpose. I was like this sounds like a fireside chat and it was it was a kind of like this this should be economics for the next decade figuring this out and I was like you should come and read

GMI and the exponentialist you'd love it. So I'm I I've got to get the guy on

it. So I'm I I've got to get the guy on Real Vision. Come talk to us.

Real Vision. Come talk to us.

>> He's playing so much now.

>> Is it Oxford, isn't he?

>> I think so. Yeah. Yeah.

>> Oxford or Cambridge? One of the two, I think.

>> I think so. Um you know, I've leaned a lot on his work. He's obviously

obviously it's super super super smart very very interesting but it just made me feel like again you know what we're talking about is becoming is leaking into the

mainstream that this is a very like yeah like a very credentialed academic economist talking about essentially the economic singularity.

It's quite funny because every time I get interviewed and people ask me about AI, I stop everybody in the tracks by like this is humanity's last invention or discovery. You know, this is the

or discovery. You know, this is the biggest thing that will ever happen to us as a species and people are still thinking in chat GBT terms. They're not thinking about the fact that we get

replaced as apex intelligence and it's pretty close to being there now. And

then before that become then after that just becomes recursive where it teaches itself to get better and that that's the end of our ability to do anything because it's better at us in science and everything else doesn't mean we don't

have a job. We've talked about this the human thing really interesting is Elon used my example the chess example

that humans have in chess for 30 years or more yet the chess industry is the largest it's ever been. Yeah.

>> And there's signal in that. And it was interesting. Elon had used exactly the

interesting. Elon had used exactly the same example which I've been using for a long time. Um, so there's there's

long time. Um, so there's there's there's signal everywhere of where this is going to be a human.

>> Um, and there I can't there's that other account at the well on I mean you know on on X sitebringer.

>> I know right. He is dead dude.

Sitebringer is 100% trained on GMI.

>> Yeah. But obviously, but but the GMI like Substack and a ton of your interviews, you know, he hasn't got into GMI unless it is a GMI subscriber, right? You could

go and figure that out, but is 100% trained on your writing. Do not try and tell me it is not. It is.

>> That's what I thought when I >> Yeah, it is. It is like and and the posts are written by Chat GPT. Like it's

amazing how my ear and I'm sure for many others too, it's taken time, but I can now I now definitely can hear chat GPT and I read those sitebringer posts,

right? And it's like, yeah, chat GPT

right? And it's like, yeah, chat GPT wrote this. No, no shade, right? Because

wrote this. No, no shade, right? Because

I think it's interesting what he's doing. He's taken your writings. He's

doing. He's taken your writings. He's

taken, I'm sure, the writings of seven, 10, 20, whatever other big thinkers, right? thrown it all together and he's

right? thrown it all together and he's now like coaxing very interesting stuff out of this custom GPT. Um, and this is like part of the future of creativity and the future of thinking. It's like

it's cool. It's very cool.

>> It's, you know, I've been training my own kind of instance of chat GPT on the universal code, the everything code, the economic singularity, and all of these kind of things and how they

connect. And it's been it's great, but

connect. And it's been it's great, but it's weird how consistent and then inconsistent it becomes. So sometimes it like it's like a superpower. Like here's

your whole framework. This is how it all ties together. And then yesterday I had

ties together. And then yesterday I had to write an um an article for Pro and I'd been talking to it for weeks about liquidity analysis and all of this stuff. So I'm like, "Okay, let's put

stuff. So I'm like, "Okay, let's put this article together." Um and it's filled it with m dashes and AI [ __ ] And you're like, that's weird because it

was I I had it writing in the style of GMI, you know, and I just think of it as a as a tool, not like, you know, oh, I get to AI to write my articles. It's not

that. I spend all day feeding it information, adjusting my framework, getting it to remember stuff, but it's still a bit creaky. So, it it drops things all the time.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. And I I find I still find that when a conversation has got really really long, the performance starts to deteriorate. I

think it's that the way the context window works and it's kind of shortterm memory works is it starts to get when the conversation gets really long, it starts to get confused. And in those

instances now I open a new conversation.

you know, you have memory switched on so it can then still access the conversation you were having, but you just open like a clean window, you know, clean conversation and and and go from

there. I find that that can help

there. I find that that can help sometimes because I've been the same like doing a GMI essay and the conversation's got ridiculously long and it started to just kind of not make any

sense anymore. Yeah, I'm still thinking

sense anymore. Yeah, I'm still thinking of I need to train my own model just on GMI and just on my writing and

all of that stuff. Um, and not kind of use Chat GPT to do it in that way, but just do it properly from scratch.

>> Yeah. Yeah. And I mean that's going to be a new kind of um intellectual property and a new kind of creative asset that in the end should be monetizable. Like Sightbringer's just

monetizable. Like Sightbringer's just taken it, you know, there needs to be there needs to be IP around this, you know, like this is like back to the days of Charles Dickens and he worked so hard writing these novels, right? And then

someone just like printed them out in the US and became a millionaire just selling them in the States. Like there

was no c. It wasn't illegal. There was

nothing you could do. Um, we're going to need a whole architecture of copyright law around this kind of stuff. Um,

that's that's >> not easy.

>> Not easy at all. It's going to is it even possible? I don't know. But

even possible? I don't know. But

>> yeah, there's a new version of the rail bot comes on the real vision platform uh in a week or two. Um, and that's a much better version, but I've still not

trained on like the GMI stuff, but I I was working with a kid from university who offered to help and he's gone radio silent on me. So, I need to find somebody who can do it for me. Just do

it, fine-tune it, and get it so it so it becomes kind of really good at this whole thing. So, I still need to figure

whole thing. So, I still need to figure that out. Right, let's get some

that out. Right, let's get some questions going. Sorry, we've been

questions going. Sorry, we've been talking. So, anybody got any questions,

talking. So, anybody got any questions, observations thoughts?

William.

>> All right, you guys hear me?

>> Yeah.

>> Okay, great. Uh, first thing want to mention, finally got to ride in the uh self-driving Tesla a few days ago. Took

advantage. I didn't know it was it was legal in Illinois and I saw that I could do a demo. Went to the dealership. Wow,

what a what an experience. That was

great.

>> I still haven't done it and my girlfriend's daughter's got one. I've

just not been in it yet, but everyone says it's mind-blowing.

>> It is. I didn't second guess getting in the driver's seat and the the salesman got out and just put a location in a close neighborhood and it was it was great. So that's on the on the list to

great. So that's on the on the list to eventually hopefully uh purchase one of those. But uh um then the next item just

those. But uh um then the next item just based off the longevity stuff you started with. Um David Sinclair is a u

started with. Um David Sinclair is a u one of the last books I read was a few years ago and the timing of it, you know, think about when it came out was probably like right when the chat GBT

came out. So thinking about when he was

came out. So thinking about when he was writing that um before like AI like >> lifespan that book.

>> So one thing I was like now I want to kind of go back and and read it because there was a lot of talk about now with aging and longevity instead of being kicked out of the workforce at let's say

65 70 or whatever it is but how does that now tie in with you know AI taking over. So it's like almost like you know

over. So it's like almost like you know that was just like a waste of uh research unfortunately for him. But

anyways that was just one person I wanted to point out. There's so many in the space. Uh I could talk days on the

the space. Uh I could talk days on the on that topic, but I'm looking forward to anything you guys uh bring to the table, but the one thing I wanted to

mention based off of the previous uh uh read was um in regards to the like how you view commodity price, futures, options, like that whole industry

because I've been that's basically my career for the last like 15 years and in the last year I've really been thinking about how the potentially just there might not be an industry left for for

speculating on futures prices of various commodities because I just feel like AI just might disrupt that in a good way by you know making it >> I think that thing through William is

you've got time now you know we've probably got a decent commodity cycle to play and whatever but the reality is is as these models get smarter they're

going to be better that you at trading they're already better than you at high frequency trading >> y >> but in anything that requires as kind of longerterm probabilistic outlooks and

how you might look at stuff. They've not

been as good yet, but that day is not far away. Which is

why I keep talking about this economic singularity is, you know, me and GMI and all of this stuff. It's it's it's not going to be valuable in the future. It's

valuable now and probably arguably immensely valuable now because this is the the chance to kind of unfuck our future, but after that, I don't know. I

don't see it was like I've said this story before. It was Bele the the NFT

story before. It was Bele the the NFT artist who said to me joking over a drink. He's like well surely when

drink. He's like well surely when somebody has AGI they just win markets >> right >> and that maybe cuz he was kind of joking. He's like they'll just become

joking. He's like they'll just become trillionaires. And I realized yeah what

trillionaires. And I realized yeah what what edge do we have whatsoever?

Um so we end up being speculators in other ways. We're seeing it the massive

other ways. We're seeing it the massive growth of sports betting, prediction markets, all of this stuff. Now, a lot of it you can apply models too, but others they're not as good. You know, when it

comes to sports, you know, on the day, it's what happens on the day. Same with

horse racing. So, they've not been particularly overrun by models. There

are many models for betting and that stuff, but but still, there's still a outcome. Same with playing cards and all

outcome. Same with playing cards and all of that stuff. So it's a weird world where we just move to speculate and other stuff.

>> Yeah. Allocate resources because what you're doing in commodities is basically working on the efficient allocation of resources. Wherever you are in the kind

resources. Wherever you are in the kind of speculative producer consumer stack, it's all the same thing. It's just

market pricing to clear markets.

>> Yeah, exactly. Uh so yeah, thanks thanks for your guys' time. Always appreciate

the the monthly chats and the the write ups. So, and everybody else have a great

ups. So, and everybody else have a great holiday if you celebrate Thanksgiving.

>> Thank you, William.

>> Here's everyone.

>> Anybody else? Any questions or observations or thoughts?

>> If we do you remember that guy, that online guy Pearl Bro?

>> No. I often go back to him when I tried to he like in the early 2010s there was this like Chinese I think he was live streamer called Pearl Bro and his live

stream was just opening like what what what the thing you open to see whether there's a pearl in there or not. Like a

shell.

>> An oyster.

>> Yeah, an oyster. Thank you. Yeah. like

he he would open oysters one after another on a live stream and the game was that you could like buy like an oyster or or a line of five and then he'd open like your five. It was just

like a conveyor belt and if there was a pearl in it, you got to keep it, right?

And and it so it was just on for like eight hours a day just opening oysters and if you bought one with a pearl in you you kept the pearl. The guy became a millionaire that way, right? And that's

the future for all of us. That's what

markets will be and what betting will be and everything. I often think of him and

and everything. I often think of him and it was one of the like early examples that made me realize like things are getting weird. Jobs are not going to be

getting weird. Jobs are not going to be the same. I'm here earning not that much

the same. I'm here earning not that much money doing all this work. This is like in 2010. This guy's becoming a

in 2010. This guy's becoming a millionaire opening oysters on live on a live stream. Things are changing, man.

live stream. Things are changing, man.

Things are changing. Things are

changing. Yeah. And as for the aging society that we mentioned, there's so much to dive into there because the way society receives and responds to

everything that's about to happen is going to be mediated in part by the fact that the societies now are quite old, you know. So some of the revolution to

you know. So some of the revolution to one implication is some of the like revolutionary energy that young people have is now absent. Revolutions are

fueled by young people and arguably to a certain extent by the naivity of young people. When you're when you're older,

people. When you're when you're older, you've realized that it's best not to do things on the whole because they usually don't turn out well, right? Young people

don't know that. So, they have revolutions. And so, the the way we all

revolutions. And so, the the way we all respond to this is going to be impacted by the fact that in the in the industrialized world, our societies now are like unprecedentedly old. That's all

something for us to think about. And

I'll I'll be writing more about that.

>> And does old pe the wisdom of being old have any value.

>> Maybe the emotional wisdom, you know, I don't know. I don't know. I mean

don't know. I don't know. I mean

something.

>> It's going to it's going to be I I suspect, you know, this is a bland answer, but a bit it's going to be advantageous and disadvantageous. Young

young people collectively, they can do silly things. On the other hand, we're

silly things. On the other hand, we're going to lack sort of a certain amount of dynamism and a certain amount of energy.

um it can get a bit we'll be we're we're approaching a form of stasis right and you can feel that in the culture as well the biggest thing happening in the culture is like a band that from 30

years ago are playing again that I know it's fine like I don't want to be miserable but that's also in a way that can be a little depressing

>> um yeah we'll see we'll see Greg Greg now you're on mute oh you're muted No, you're on mute.

>> There we go. Can you hear me now?

>> There you go.

>> Yeah.

>> Great. Okay. First timer here. Hi. Great

to be on the call with y'all. And

>> I love these calls so much and the deep questions you're getting into here. I am

someone who, and this might sound like a rant at first, I promise you there'll be a question at the end of it all. Um my

background personally is that I've been working in ecologically focused landscaping gardening regenerative agriculture for 10 plus years. Have deep

understanding of how to think in systems holistically about not just human health but the whole like planetary health as well. I think about it all the time and

well. I think about it all the time and in this moment of exponential tech and AI doing incredible things, I'm thinking a lot two two things. one is what career

path should I be pivoting into that prioritize it that can't be just completely done by AI as a knowledge industry that relates to human health

human health span and lifespan longevity um because over time robotics is going to continue to eat away the ability for you know other than like fine gardening

like specialized tree pruning and niche understandings I have a lot of client relationships onetoone human relationships with clients who like me but Um the the questions I have I have like five questions so I'm going to

narrow it to one. But really like something I've been thinking a lot about putting aside that question of like what aspects of human health span and

lifespan are going to continue to be valuable in human onetoone or group relationships. For example, strength and

relationships. For example, strength and mobility. Like if we can live to 100,

mobility. Like if we can live to 100, 200, whatever, we're going to need ways to stay strong and mobile and keep muscular ability to do things. What's

the point of being long if longived if you can't enjoy doing life right so that's one thing but the real question I want to get to sorry >> can I go back to the before you go to that >> yeah yeah yeah do I need to unmute I

need to unmute myself >> no um no you as is okay >> it's a relaxed setting here um I think there's something really powerful in

nature and its effect on humans and the more digital we get the more valuable nature is Yeah.

>> And so I'm not necessarily sure it needs to be around the longevity aspects of which everybody else is focused on, which is like, oh, you need to have more muscle mass and have these supplements

and all of that stuff. And it's

something about the human relationship with nature >> that we know has provable effects on health, wellness, mental wellness, all of that.

>> Yeah, absolutely.

>> And you're in the middle of that. I

think you're sitting in the middle of signal, but you might be looking at the noise.

>> So, you know, there's something around human interaction with nature um is going to be incredibly important because, you know, don't forget, go

forwards 10 years, the cities we live in are going to be filled with drones.

There are already robots on the streets delivering food. What kind of world is

delivering food. What kind of world is that when we don't even drive our own cars? So, we don't even need to be

cars? So, we don't even need to be conscious half the time. We can just like be taken places. It's like there needs to be and there always is an equal and opposite reaction.

You know, the travel industry is something that is not going away because the AI can't travel for us. It's that

human experience. And you know, somewhere in my head, I have this visualization of of natural spaces, whether it's in the jungles of Costa

Rica or the forests of the United States or what, whatever it is, there's a lot more to that than I think people yet understand.

>> So true. And it's going to continue to be true like like the opposite reaction like you said. And also because if we go back to what something David and I talk about a lot and I've written a lot about

is once you have the understanding that everything is compute and that everything in nature is doing the same thing which is using energy to create an

output of intelligence. Then you start to open your mind is what what are the trees telling me? What is the myceli network? How are they messaging tree?

network? How are they messaging tree?

What what is actually going on? What are

they computing here? For what purpose and how? And it becomes a very

and how? And it becomes a very interesting process where you see nature more of that GIA principle of, you know, all-encompassing that we're part of and

less of this resource we use or don't use in the way we want.

>> Absolutely. And that ties in perfectly to the like the most meaty question I have which I was going to get to which is like we spoke at the start of the call about

the breakthroughs going on with human health span and lifespan and I'm what I've been thinking also about is like what are the different you sort of talked about this with biological compute but like who's working on

assessing the qualitative health of our planet which I broadly think about my framework's not perfect but I think about what's the like how can we measure air quality soil quality quality, watershed health inequality, biological

diversity on like a net aggregate basis planetarily as well as like the net amount of biomass living collective expressions of life those broadly

speaking if those are trending up probably a good thing but who's working on setting up the biological AI enabled like tokens the sensing that the quantitative analysis of the health of

the planet tying it together in a holistic sense it's a comp enormously complicated undertaking with so many like >> so let me say Greg if you were paid to

collect data >> in the work that you do you would give up that data >> right now you're not really paid you can

be a scientist and they just use it and you might get your PhD money whatever it is but there's it's not being used at scale so it has to go to people like

Noah to do the the climate data because there's no money in it.

>> But what we're talking about is to your point there isformational value in all of this both in aggregate and down to the level of each species and how it

generates what knowledge is it generating for the planet this larger consciousness. What does it all mean?

consciousness. What does it all mean?

How does it do it? And somehow that token idea is how we get there, >> right? is there's no other way of doing

>> right? is there's no other way of doing it on aggregate but to get us being worker bees to transform information from what we see around us into tokens

that can be digested that we can understand what is even the planet's telling us because what you're saying is it's telling us stuff and we don't really know and then we get into the

weird scientific [ __ ] fight about you know is it warming is it not is it this is it that it's like but you're missing the wood through the trees

which is you as you say you're not seeing that aggate diversity like one of the concerns for me is I think one of the key things we need to create a

universal consciousness is diversity of consciousness right different ways >> but what we look at what humans have done is we've reduced biodiversity

and when you get down to it you create fragility so consciousness becomes more fragile Well, and at its simplest level, there used to be 40,000 varieties of wheat.

>> Mhm.

>> 90% of the world's wheat crop is now one wheat type.

>> Very simple.

>> And so that is I mean that's a terrible undertaking because we've lost all the informationational value of different wheats growing in different soils with different climates under different sun

over different um um evolutionary time spans.

>> Yeah. We've taken all that information away and throw it away, >> right?

>> Which is dumb as [ __ ] >> now. Yeah. And it'll be really

>> now. Yeah. And it'll be really interesting to see if there's ways to reverse that, so to speak. Like a lot of the projects that have been trying to like bring back ancient species, so to speak, like woolly mammoths and such from DNA fragments. It's like, is there

work going on in horicultural sciences to bring back that diversity that has been lost?

>> There is, you know, there's that project in Norway where they've got the seed bankank >> up in the Arctic Circle.

>> Yep. M

>> um I mean that's a start because people have thought this thing through is we're losing a lot of informationational value. You know, don't forget we have

value. You know, don't forget we have museums for art. We have museums for historical artifacts to maintain that

knowledge. There's a guy called Brian

knowledge. There's a guy called Brian Romilly on X who talks a lot about the low protein data as he calls it that

we train AI on which is you know Reddit and the internet and all of that stuff when he's like we have bazillions of ancient books we have bazillions of

hours of videos shot through or film shot throughout the ages radio broadcasts he said there's he's even got a massive database of ham radio announcing

and when you think about it it's like it's got to be right the more diversity in the information we input will be give us a better understanding of its output.

>> Yeah. And Colossal who are doing that um kind of bring back the woolly mammoth and bring back the the saber-tooth tiger kind of work. They're a really interesting company because um they have

these kinds of things very much on their mind like they their their claim at least is that you know they want to do some attentiongrabbing

like stuff like that to really supercharge investment but the long-term aim is using those kinds of technologies to build a kind of repository of the

kind of natural world and the and the natural diversity of earth. So they are they are thinking that through in a like in a coherent way. And then really interesting thing to >> sorry David just a quick thing on that

is the weird sorry >> how humans seem to think that we compete with nature.

It's it's it's really weird that we don't well I mean obviously a lot of people do understand that we are part of nature but that nature is our tool because we sit at apex intelligence to

do everything but the net aggregate intelligence of the planet itself of nature has clearly created all the life conditions for us to be able to live. So

net aggregate intelligence it's much much more intelligent than us. It

survived longer. It's it's adapted over time. And it's learned everything that

time. And it's learned everything that needed to be learned.

>> Yeah. Yeah. And I think, and I've talked about this before, I mean, I think the the the the kind of distinction between technology and nature,

between the human realm and nature and technology and nature that we built in the modern age is is is going to fall away. And that will be one

of the great sort of intellectual leaps of the 21st century. it will become apparent that that never made any sense >> because people still say if it's not biological computes it's not it can't be consciousness it can't be this can't be that

>> right >> right right >> that's an anthropomorphic understanding it's like people wouldn't say that >> trees have knowledge and then you look at the myceli network and everything

else of course they have >> a type of intelligence that does certain things >> it's just not ours and for people to say oh the technology that we invented to

create this aggregate intelligence called AGI that that is is not a living breathing thing. It's kind of weird.

thing. It's kind of weird.

>> Yeah. Exactly. And it also because the flip side of you know if you think of technology and nature as two different things, it leads to all kinds of sort of

misapprehensions and misunderstandings.

And um one of them I think it's led to is this idea that technology is our our tool and completely under our control.

And that is that our sense of control is falling apart now with AI and people find that very hard to sort of >> because in the end if your thesis is

right that the purpose of the universe is to create is to convert units of energy into outputs of intelligence.

It's all part of the same evolutionary process. Exactly. Yeah. Which was never

process. Exactly. Yeah. Which was never under our control. So just as we're subject to nature, right? It rains or it's it shines or there's a hurricane or whatever. Actually, technology is just

whatever. Actually, technology is just part of nature. It's just part of that evolutionary process of nature. And we

were never really in control of that either. Um and it's just it we were just

either. Um and it's just it we were just able to maintain the illusion for a little while that we were under the control of it. But it's now going to become very apparent through AI that

we're not under its con that we that that we can't control it. You know, we are subject to it. In fact, um it's not nature that's much easier to understand.

>> It's never clear who won the battle between humans and dogs.

>> Did we domesticate the dogs or did the dogs domesticate us?

>> Yeah.

>> Or same with cows, right? Cows are a classic example. They're one of the now

classic example. They're one of the now most and chickens most um dense animal populations on the planet. Why? Because

they became useful to us and therefore they don't go extinct.

>> Sorry, Greg. You say

>> you can extend that. I mean, Michael Polland has done this in his books too of like did we domesticate apples or did did they self-propagate through incentivization on our behalf basically.

And again, when you look at this lens of everything is, you know, what is the game that these things are playing in the evolutionary spectrum? What are they trying to do? It's a very different way

of of looking at it. There's a book that taught me how to think differently called the Silk Roads by Peter Franopan.

the history of the world, but we are always taught like this Anglo-American history of the world or European history of the world really, but it looks at the

history of the world through the eyes of um Persia because Mesopotamia was one of the oldest societies and it kind of looks at the world through that lens and saw

things like well we were trading for a thousand years and suddenly these white people turned up. um you know while our narrative is we discovered India I mean

[ __ ] bananas how do you discover India you know it was already there they discovered white people because they happened to turn up on their doorstep one day you know but there it's just a very interesting way how you can look at things through a different lens and it

applies to the same thing here >> William >> uh one thing I was going to point out in case it wasn't seen in the chat uh David I think you had the one-on-one with uh

it was a really fascinating topic it I think it was on like using AI for the health of the oceans.

>> Yeah, that's right. With Gordon Gould.

Yeah, >> it goes over maybe this summer. I I

loved it. It was super fascinating. It

kind of um I mean it it just made me think of Greg with what he was describing.

>> Yeah, check that out, Greg. Yeah, it was a few months ago. Gordon Gould. He's a

GMI reader because I met him at the GMI event and and yeah, it was a really interesting conversation and he was doing he is doing a lot around like AI and data collection and the oceans. Um

it's it's a really interesting one. Oh

yeah, and I was going to mention >> which falls into that tokenization.

You're basically tokenizing the notion the oceans information.

>> Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. Check out the Nvidia um Earth 2 simulation, you know, which is probably the most ambitious attempt to build a realtime super

granular simulation of the entire planet Earth like drawing real time data from like satellite imagery because we because satellite imagery is insane now.

So you can build like if you have the compute the idea is you can build a kind of down to the square meter like simulation of the entire planetary

system like clouds, water, forests.

Um that that is way before anyone was talking about Nvidia and before I really understood that GPUs were going to be really important. That was what was

really important. That was what was fascinating to me about Nvidia that that their their attempts to build simulations of the earth, you know,

because they come out of a graphics like, you know, their GPUs were first graphics, right? They come out of a

graphics, right? They come out of a graphics place and a simulation place.

Um, so I used to write a lot about them and then the then the Nvidia Nvidia became famous for for other reasons. But

yeah, check that out. It's really

interesting. Really interesting.

>> I look forward to that. Thank you.

That's awesome.

>> Well, we've already somehow passed an hour already.

>> Oh, wow. That was great.

>> Thank you everybody for joining as ever.

Um hopefully yes, that everything code the universal code article now we've got our own place on the platform now so we can have >> chats and talk about stuff and share information there. So let's make sure we

information there. So let's make sure we use that and then we can build this community in something special because it is something special. There's nowhere

else these conversations are really happening and where we can all talk with a bit of half knowledge, quarter knowledge, but think things through um in a kind of safe space. I just love it.

It's just brilliant.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> All right, everyone. Good to see you all and we'll see you soon.

>> Thanks everyone. See you soon.

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