Biggest Crypto Winners & Losers of 2025 - The Chopping Block

Don't curse.

>> All right.

>> I would never. Hello everybody. Welcome

to the chopping block.

>> Boom. Not a dividend. It's a tale of two fun.

>> Now your losses are on someone else's balance sheet.

>> Generally speaking, airdrops are kind of pointless. Anyways,

pointless. Anyways, >> un trading firms who are very involved.

>> E is the ultimate. De protocols are the antidote to this problem.

>> Hello everyone. Welcome to the shopping blog. Every couple weeks, the four of us

blog. Every couple weeks, the four of us get together and give the industry insiders perspective on the crypto topics of the day. Quick intros. First,

you got Tom, the DeFi maven and master of memes.

>> Hello everyone.

>> Next, we got Robert, the crypto connoisseur and Zar of Superstate.

>> Happy New Year.

>> Next, we got Tarun, the gigab brain, and the grand puba at Gauntlet.

>> Yo, happy new year.

>> And I'm the head hype man at Dragonfly.

We're early stage investors in crypto, but I want to caveat that nothing we say here is investment advice, legal advice, or even life advice. Please see chopping blocks at XYZ for more disclosures.

>> So, boys, it is a new year. It is now 2026. I know Robert loves to celebrate

2026. I know Robert loves to celebrate with profanity, so I thought we'd >> put put a little bit of uh curveball in there.

>> I am anti-profanity.

>> Are you anti-rofanity, actually?

>> Yes. Listen, I have young kids. I try to have a profanityfree lifestyle and house. So, no profanities. I did not

house. So, no profanities. I did not know that. Is that Do you like not curse

know that. Is that Do you like not curse on the show? Am I

>> No, I I do not curse on the show.

>> You do not curse.

>> We can play back the tape. We'll see if I'm now the show. Robert,

the show. Robert, >> someone's going to get the highlight reel of every time I've like >> Yeah. Yeah. All right. Are you trying to

>> Yeah. Yeah. All right. Are you trying to put money on this? You want to put money on this?

>> I won't put money on this, but >> I tried it. New Year's resolve of us.

>> Okay. The young young listeners. We're

going to put >> I love how this turned into a New Year's resolution.

We're gonna get we're going to get a mixtape of all the time that Robert is cursing the show. We'll put out a special episode. Just Robert cursing set

special episode. Just Robert cursing set to music.

>> Anyway, okay. So, we're it's been another year, which means another year of winners and losers and notables for 2025.

>> So, for those of us who remember, a lot of ups and downs. We started in the year with the election, the AI boom, you know, Ethereum going through its ups and downs, meme coins. It's been a crazy year, but we are going to as the

chopping block team look back on a year of episodes of ups and downs and tell you who were the biggest winners, losers, surprise, best new mechanism, best meme, best or worst pivot, biggest

flop, biggest comeback story, favorite guest, and then finally to top it all off, we'll go through predictions for 2026. So without further ado, let's

2026. So without further ado, let's start with the first category, which is biggest winner. Robert, tell us who is

biggest winner. Robert, tell us who is the biggest winner in your mind for 2025.

>> Well, there's two biggest winners, but I'll start with the boring lame one first. The biggest winner in my mind is

first. The biggest winner in my mind is the equity based companies in the crypto industry that have benefited from regulatory clarity, a friendly

administration, and the floodgates of institutional interest opening up up.

This is M&A season this year, both for the acquirers and the acquiries. We've

already seen a lot of consolidation starting to occur this year. We had

Bridge and Privy and Derbit and Hidden Road and Echo and the list goes on and on and on. The biggest winners are really the sort of like companies in the

space that are consolidating and forming alliances and sizing up. I think this is going to lead to, you know, a totally different landscape this year in 2026.

But the biggest winners are the growth stage equity companies. That's my lame one. The second biggest winner is all of

one. The second biggest winner is all of you here at home who get to go uh into 2026 with a fresh experience after a

roller coaster of a 25.

>> What?

>> Why?

>> I thought you were going to say like cuz prices are low so you can buy you can buy cheap alts or something.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah, that's roughly what I mean. You

know >> that's what you mean. Okay. That's what

he means. That's what he he means prices are low. This is investment advice.

are low. This is investment advice.

Okay.

>> A fresh a fresh cost basis. Yeah.

>> Fresh cost basis. Yeah, welcome to 26. I

love the sentiment. Okay, Tom,

>> biggest winner.

>> Big biggest winner at prediction markets as obviously the the crowd favorite poly market, but everyone gets included. You

know, it's it's end of the year feeling feeling happy. I mean, this was like a

feeling happy. I mean, this was like a category that was so fringe two years ago and now it is so extremely mainstream. It is constantly written

mainstream. It is constantly written about. It is in media. There's a South

about. It is in media. There's a South Park episode. It gets cited. Like, I

Park episode. It gets cited. Like, I

just can't remember the last time something got this big so quickly and obviously is very cool. But we're still kind of discovering new applications for prediction markets and so yeah, prediction markets are are my 2025 winner.

>> Congratulations to KHI. This this

episode has been sponsored by Coli.

Thank you. Thank you, Tom.

>> They're they're in the others bucket.

>> Poly markets.

>> Got it. All right. So I biggest winner I had a tie between Tom Lee for obvious reasons being the ETH shill and kind of ETH doing what it's done and and and Bitmine becoming now the contender right

behind Micro Strategy as being the biggest DAT uh second biggest DAT in existence. Um, and then I had Donald

existence. Um, and then I had Donald Trump. I think Trump in has basically

Trump. I think Trump in has basically crushed it in crypto. I think he got an enormous sum of money from launching his memecoin, the Melania, which I think

Terrun on the show coined as the second tower or the second plane I think it was, I think he called it. and uh going from that to you know world liberty financial Trump media like all of the

different ways in which he has made himself in times at the expense of the industry but also gotten a lot of policy and agenda wins for himself with respect to the crypto goals of his administration establishing strategic

Bitcoin reserve all of that together I would say Donald Trump probably one of the biggest winners of 2025 within crypto what do you have best winner biggest winner

>> I had crypto derivatives platforms terms on chain. So, Perpetual's Dex is I I

on chain. So, Perpetual's Dex is I I count prediction markets and the derivative camp because like I kind of think they both grew a lot and they fed off each other. You know, like in some

ways the prediction markets having a ton of press about them despite the volumes being a lot lower versus the perpetuals markets where there's tons of volume and

like no press coverage, but yet people in both of those worlds who are working on it kind of talking about it with each other. I think the overall, you know,

other. I think the overall, you know, DEX market share overall spot and derivatives has gone up. And, you know, I think

being in crypto for a long time, getting into crypto full-time partially because of like hoping prediction markets work one day, despite it feeling like it took

15 years, too long or something, it does feel kind of like a winning day. And I

think on the perpetual side, obviously I'd say, you know, we've had lots of versions of it, but it's interesting to see that people are finally moving their money from centralized exchanges on chain. And

even with all the security stuff and it being harder, etc. I think you can't really knock those two. So,

>> so to summarize, Hyperlid, >> is that what I'm hearing? Tr

>> all perpetual Texas. I like like >> can't bring himself to say hyperlid. No,

I I I I think Hyperlid too, but I think I said Hyperlid last year because like that was right after the air drop. So I

I just kind of wanted to broaden it because other than saying the same prediction twice.

>> Fair enough. Fair enough. Fair enough.

Okay, cool. So inverse of biggest winner, we now have biggest loser.

>> Tom, why don't you get us started? Who

is the biggest loser in your mind for 2025?

>> Biggest loser was kind of a triple whammy. I have altcoins for a couple

whammy. I have altcoins for a couple different reasons. one, you can

different reasons. one, you can obviously just say, hey, performance for alts has been really bad this year.

Everyone's been hoping for an alt season of some sort that has never really manifested. New launches have not really

manifested. New launches have not really gone well. I mean, we really have not

gone well. I mean, we really have not had new coins break into the top 100 other than like hype and ENA in the, you know, the past two years. I think people are hoping clarity would get passed this

year and like obviously we've had a, you know, much more, you know, favorable administration. we have a bunch more

administration. we have a bunch more favorable, you know, regulators and that's all been well and good in terms of providing some breathing room for the industry, but like we want actual regulation to get to get passed and we haven't had that legisl legislation get passed. We haven't actually had that

passed. We haven't actually had that happen. So, that's been a bummer. And

happen. So, that's been a bummer. And

then we've also had these other issues between now these these fights between equity holders and token holders with these acquisitions happening more recently or where hey, you know, the company gets bought um and token holders

sort of get get shafted. And so it feels like this is kind of so much of the industry and there's so much hope for I think what tokenization can do, but it's really just been this year where like altcoins have really kind of gotten left

in in the dust in in various ways.

>> Nice. Yeah, I mean that hits close to home, but yes, that sounds right. I had

biggest loser for 2025 was the legacy of Gary Kendler. I think basically what

Gary Kendler. I think basically what we've seen this year is just a complete dismantling of everything this man stood for over the four years of his tenure at the SEC. Basically like when when we

the SEC. Basically like when when we started this year I thought like oh you know maybe they'll they'll they'll offer some guidance maybe they'll like you know settle some of the cases but no we saw complete 180. Everything that he

fought for has been completely dismantled and destroyed and just forgotten. So, he went from being one of

forgotten. So, he went from being one of the most hated SEC chairman in recent memory that I I've ever seen in terms of just the the absolute uniform level of

hate that he's gotten and for absolutely nothing. Nothing that he stood for or

nothing. Nothing that he stood for or worked for has survived in this SEC and good riddance. But I think that's to me

good riddance. But I think that's to me very clearly biggest loser of 2025 is that you know it's just like uh a just a gravestone not even a gravestone where

Gary Gendzer used to sit. Uh Tun what do you have biggest loser 2025?

>> You know I think I've said this on the show many times this year in different shapes and forms but I think web 3 as a thesis I think I'm willing to I'm

willing to write it off. I think the NFT market, if you look at the capitulation in some of the larger names, it's like I

I feel like there's a a death tombstone waiting. And I also just feel like a lot

waiting. And I also just feel like a lot of the the reputation of web 3 is just so poor amongst creators, artists, what

anyone who would like have benefited from the thesis that it just feels like it gets worse every year. and it does feel like it's at a certain bottom right now where I don't even know if there's a

way it can go up. So, I really just think the web 3 thesis is a big loser. I

mean, even in I believe in like Andre's predictions for 2026, they don't call it out explicitly, right? They're focused on privacy.

right? They're focused on privacy.

They're focused on stable coin usage and maybe AI, but like I I I think like even the people who are the biggest proponents probably don't necessarily at least publicly a face it anymore. So I'm

willing to write the epitap now.

>> Do you count IP tokenization as web 3?

Does that count as web 3?

>> If I knew what the IP was, sure. You

know, like it feels like I don't know what IP is being tokenized. No, no. as I

don't know examples to like if a lot if a lot of the IP was actually like royalty streaming from like >> movies or art or something sure but if

it's like oh mostly IP is like chip IP that is being sold between SKH highix and Samsung then no right like you know there's like a huge spectrum of IP so

>> okay fair answer >> biggest loser >> I'm sad about this one unlike Kibes where I was happy. I think the biggest

loser this year, starting from how much optimism and high expectations I personally had at the beginning of the year, the biggest loser is a strategic Bitcoin reserve in my opinion.

>> And I'm sad about this because there was a lot of excitement when we started the year. A lot of us thought that this was

year. A lot of us thought that this was the year that we would have the most important sovereign nation on earth really utilizing Bitcoin in a

geopolitical way. It sort of fizzled a

geopolitical way. It sort of fizzled a little bit. It became, oh well, we're

little bit. It became, oh well, we're going to hold on to seized Bitcoin and we're also going to evaluate other ways to build this reserve that don't include buying it, which fine, it's lukewarm.

dot dot dot dot dot all the way up to this moment in time where there was just a story like yesterday that the US government seized Bitcoin from the

samurai wallet developers and then sold it in violation of executive order 14233 which said we're going to build this slowly over time by not selling seized

Bitcoin. It's like there's been no

Bitcoin. It's like there's been no progress from the US government effectively on building a strategic Bitcoin reserve. And yeah, there's

Bitcoin reserve. And yeah, there's things that could change in 2026. You

know, people are joking around that we're going to seize Venezuela's Bitcoin and that they've been secretly building up a stash and that's going to become our strategic Bitcoin reserve. But none

of this has happened. It's kind of been negative momentum for the past year. And

I I think these incredible ambitions and hopes that occurred are at this point, you know, quite wounded.

>> Fair enough. I actually had strategic Bitcoin reserve for a different thing, but so I'm gonna change that. I'm gonna

wreck on that.

>> Okay. So, next category is biggest surprise. Terrone, what do you have?

surprise. Terrone, what do you have?

Biggest surprise of >> I'm excited about this because I don't want to get front run, which is uh Zcash. I think Zcash coming.

Zcash. I think Zcash coming.

>> I had Zcash other I was like, someone's definitely going to say Zcash, so I'm taking that off.

>> Yeah, that was why I wanted to go first.

>> All right, good.

>> Zcash, a couple reasons. A I have a soft spot for Zcash. I think I mined Zcash in

2016 and blew up an old GPU I had and old computer because I overheated it.

And it was just sort of like an experience of like actually getting to read a research paper, seeing it implemented, running on your computer

and seeing it actually work. And like I think that was what one of these thing things that like really sort of made me kind of end up being more in crypto. And

I think Zcash has kind of gone through a lot of phases, right? It's it's had a lot of fights over the developer funding over the years. It's had a lot of fights over like how slow it is or the

inflation bug. It's kind of had a lot of

inflation bug. It's kind of had a lot of punches and never many advocates and many uh people trying to to push it. And

I think you know Mert and Co and Naval I guess like I think that's the the Zcash 2025 cabal I think they really pushing

privacy is actually like a good meme like compared to a memecoin like there is actually a real reason and Zcash has gotten better and you can just see the shielded address pool growth which is

awesome. I I think like you know the

awesome. I I think like you know the other podcast I'm often on is a zero knowledge podcast about new things and zero knowledge proofs and there have been tons of things that have been

improvements on Zcash whatever none of them have ever really been able to get commercial success or grow growth I think because they because Zcash itself

never really kind of did and there's sort of this hopefulness to me that the the the kind of interest in Zcash also

will spread down the privacy well and so that surprise I think I'm hoping for the trickle down privacy economics of 2026

>> trickle down privacy economics the best new mechanism as well of 2026 >> okay fair enough what do you have for biggest surprise

>> the biggest surprise in my opinion was the circle IPO and the days that followed >> damn scoop me >> oh ch So, Circle briefly flipped

Coinbase in Market Cap earlier this year. You know, when Circle was

year. You know, when Circle was considering going public, they really led the wave of crypto companies filing.

And up until that moment, there was a lot of skepticism. A lot of industry insiders were like, "Is this thing worth $4 billion? Like, you know, how can they

$4 billion? Like, you know, how can they go public?" You know, the people were

go public?" You know, the people were reviewing the S1, you know, and getting really nervous about it. It then debuted above everyone's expectations and the

narrative took hold that stable coins were going to win finance and that Circle was the only pure play stable coin company that was public and that the way to bet on the future of finance

was to bet on Circle and this went from a company that people were skeptical about a four or five billion dollar valuation to one which it was $70 billion not very long after. I mean that

is a shocking run for a public company in a short amount of time. And so this surprised everyone. I mean those weeks where

everyone. I mean those weeks where circle was you know flying through the stratosphere to the moon were an exciting and heady time I think and it

shocked even the most you know skeptical and experienced investor class of the crypto industry.

>> That is very very true. I remember that it I mean it has come back down to earth. It's now post lockup. So the I

earth. It's now post lockup. So the I think that's what a lot of people were saying was like, "Oh man, just wait till that lockup expires."

>> But still lock up is now expired. Yeah.

Still $20 billion company. 20 billion

lockup is expired. You know, it's not it's not Coinbase size, but it's definitely a lot bigger than what people were anticipating when they when they released their S1.

>> Oh yeah. Kudos to them.

>> So very very big success story.

>> Tom, what do you got? Uh my

>> backup to something. You got a backup?

>> I had Tempo uh as my as my backup actually. Um I think like

actually. Um I think like >> it's it's pretty good. I mean I think um crypto has had this long history of kind of Fortune 500 adop adoption kind of

happening in like these these fits and starts where it's like oh someone's doing some partnership and oh you know maybe they'll accept Bitcoin for payments but it it never really felt like oh this is actually going to be something that people are actually going

to invest into or they'll only do it if hey this is going to be a you know revenue driver or a profit center versus like something actually requires R&D or investment. obviously still very very

investment. obviously still very very early in the days of tempo to say hey if this is gonna be a success or not and all those equal I would probably say that the odds are are stacked against them but like I think impressive just

the fact that it seems like they it is much more real this time there is like an actual real consortium of real large companies investing serious money into building a totally new payment system

from scratch and I think obviously that was having a dent in the industry >> I green oaks that are investing the money to be clear >> still it's still $500 million like you know when was the last time you saw a round that big for what is ultimately

you know zero and obviously Matt also you know putting his his time onto it too. So I'm like I don't know it was

too. So I'm like I don't know it was just um and I feel like it also just came out of nowhere. It's not just like oh we accept USDC which is everyone else is doing it's like an actual investment into building something. So

>> I I felt like what's surprising was not that Stripe did that but rather that Paradigm did that.

>> Yeah. I feel like that's the really surprising thing about Tempo that that you know if you if you told me at the beginning of the year like Stripe is going to try to launch a p you know their own blockchain I would be like oh okay I mean that's cool good for them.

Uh but if you told me like Paradigm is going to build it and like their whole team is going to work on it I'd be like what that's [ __ ] insane >> and they're going to take convince half the EF to go work there.

>> That also yeah speaking of which so my biggest surprise of the year was the Ethereum pivot. So there was, you know,

Ethereum pivot. So there was, you know, recent um consternation going on around uh Ethereum and Vitalic talking about, oh, what's the vision for Ethereum?

We were talking on this podcast toward the end of 2024 basically that Ethereum was cooked. We

thought that it the the sentiment was just unreoverable. They were driving

just unreoverable. They were driving themselves into irrelevance. Uh there

was nobody there who cared about price, who cared about the actual attractiveness of ETH1 relative to L2s.

And this narrative had set in of like okay the L2 is a parasitic and ETH is just never going to do anything about it. And it was what was it February that

it. And it was what was it February that Vitalik saw religion fired Ya put in Tomas and Xiawe and now we've seen this

tremendous recovery of Ethereum. Um

something that I think for many years people were saying like man Ethereum is just underdelivering. They refuse to be

just underdelivering. They refuse to be commercial. They refuse to be realistic

commercial. They refuse to be realistic about their competitive position. I was

very surprised. I was not expecting it and I think it was actually I think on the show I said immediately after the EF turned over I actually feel really optimistic about Ethereum now and I was not expecting to say that this year.

>> Well I think Tom Lee was the big driver but you know that's for debate.

>> Well Tom Lee was downstream of that. Tom

Lee was downstream of that. I don't

think that Tom Lee alone could have made this happen and I think Tom Lee was in part a response to the fact that Ethereum had gotten its [ __ ] together.

Tom Lee might be working on Salana >> if it were the fact that Ethereum had the momentum. Yeah, that Ethereum had

the momentum. Yeah, that Ethereum had the momentum that it was already starting to recover by the time that that mania had kicked off.

>> I don't know. Well,

>> I feel I feel like Tom Lee's been >> pretty echarded, I believe, was the phrase on the show is the word. Yeah, that's

right. That's right.

>> Yeah, I I feel like that's been true for a while cuz I remember like actually >> I mean, he was like a Bitcoin maxi in the past. He was like talking constantly

the past. He was like talking constantly about Bitcoin. I don't think Lesner

about Bitcoin. I don't think Lesner Lesner had an event in 2020 in >> might have been 2019. 2019

>> 2019. Yeah. I forget exactly. Yeah. And

he was speaking at it and he was really hyping Ethereum like so I I guess I've always had this impression that he's like not so I'm not >> he came to an early DeFi event in San

Francisco and was like hyped.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. In a way that like >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

>> Wow. Okay. Fair enough. All right. I so

I just always kind of had this impression he loved ETH but that also at that time ETH was the only thing only place you had DeFi so you know >> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> I'm not sure how to how that cuts.

>> Fair enough. Okay. All right. Next

category is best new mechanism. Best new

mechanism. Tom, why don't you kick us off? What do you think is the best new

off? What do you think is the best new mechanism of 2025?

>> I I don't know if you can count this as new, but I would say this like wave of ICO 2.0 know kind of like tasteful buyer sales I would say is is kind of in this bucket. I think we've been complaining

bucket. I think we've been complaining for years that airdrops are kind of pointless anyway and there are so many issues the data supports this all these teams are expressing this and then

obviously as as we were discussing earlier we as the most vulnerable group the the venture capitalists in this ecosystem get so much flack from from retail investors it was a joke and and

um and uh it's like how do you kind of solve these two issues? Hey, well, maybe we we bring back token sales, but we do so in a way that's not 2017 free-for-all extremely early. Just give me a lump sum

extremely early. Just give me a lump sum of money and I'll go promise to build this thing. But it's more like a, you

this thing. But it's more like a, you know, true, hey, crowd sale, cap it. We

can kind of place our allocations with people who think it could be long-term aligned and obviously put skin in the game. It just feels like okay this

game. It just feels like okay this actually kind of solves all these like miscellaneous problems that were were happening in terms of token distribution capital formation and I don't know it seems like hey if we do get you know

clarity or market structure passed in you know 2026 maybe that would also just unlock the the floodgates even further for this so that's my best new mechanism >> tasteful ICOs >> tasteful ICOs >> like the art

>> Kobe you can take that yeah >> nice okay Robert what do you got best new mechanism of 25 >> well this is a combination of best and worst. I think this is just the most

worst. I think this is just the most impactful mechanism and it's not even new, but I I have to say the DAT structure in general. This was the year

where it was the highest impact mechanism on the crypto markets. And I

don't know if it's best.

>> Yeah. I don't know if it's Yeah. I don't

know if you call that best, but okay.

I'll take >> Yeah. Like maybe special third a special

>> Yeah. Like maybe special third a special third thing.

>> Correct. This is a a third >> absolute value of impact. absolute value

of impact. Dats are the runaway highest absolute value of impact. They have

>> what's the opposite of dampening volatility, amplifying volatility. They

have >> they have amplified the volatility of spot assets. They have added a whole new

spot assets. They have added a whole new layer of animal spirits both good and bad. They I think they've brought back

bad. They I think they've brought back what will become the bull market. Even

though they are toxic in their own way and value destructive in other ways, but DATs have totally reinvented the game.

They're going to go in and out of favor, but biggest magnitude impact mechanism of the year.

>> All right, fair enough. Tun, what do you have for best new mechanism of 25?

>> So, so I would say 2025 was a pretty weak year for mechanisms. I would say that there weren't a lot of new innovations

on the DeFi side because like when I think of mechanism I think of like purely DeFi stuff. It was certainly a lot more innovating on execution implementation

different things like that, maybe like having different trust assumptions. But

one mechanism did shine through as actually being novel even though it's not completely denovo new and also being used a lot which is the prop amms on

Salana which are basically sort of a mix of requests for quote systems and you know automated market makers like unis swap and so the the history of this is

you know a lot of defi relied on this passive liquidity sitting in liquidity pools being available at all times for trading very capital inefficient. You have to have way more capital than you need to

facilitate trades. On the other hand,

facilitate trades. On the other hand, you have this kind of RFQ system where someone fulfills your order just in time. It's capital efficient, but it has

time. It's capital efficient, but it has this problem that it can go down. Like

if all the soling orders can't reply, then things don't work as well. And so you kind of saw this dichotomy in the spot market on

chain of pure passive liquidity, pure RFQ. And you know there's everyone who's

RFQ. And you know there's everyone who's still dreaming of like passive only will will will work. And then there's people who there's still problems with the RFQ system. It's not like perfect. But the

system. It's not like perfect. But the

propm kind of tries to get a little bit of both worlds where market makers quote a wider spread of liquidity and you're sort of getting a a temporary order book

that people can cross and it's a little more complicated than that but at a high level uh that's what happens and it has really taken over Salana in terms of DEX

volumes. has really made spreads

volumes. has really made spreads compress quite a bit and it's also has a bit of better onchain provenence than pure RFQS. And so I think while it's not

pure RFQS. And so I think while it's not sort of like again like a totally new thing it's sort of like a mixture of things that already existed. It's

clearly new. It's clearly working and I think it's deserving of the title.

>> We were debating this earlier is that like it's basically Kyber but it's like you know one one admin key.

>> Yeah. with like slightly exactly that's that's my my problem with it being like is it a new mechanism?

>> Yeah. So it's an old idea but it's finally working because of the latency and the people who are actually running it are very very sophisticated. So it's

working it's working and it's taking over Salana >> and I think it's also proving that I think we will see maybe I'll save this for predictions. Never mind.

for predictions. Never mind.

>> Okay. Okay. All right. Say save it. Save

it. All right. So I had for best new mechanism of 2025 was federal preeemption.

So for those of you who do not know the reason why call sheet and poly market can operate in all 50 states and offer bets on sports and so on is this mechanism known as federal preeemption

which is that if there's a federal law it overrites overrides state laws and that's the reason why you're seeing so much growth in these prediction markets that they're available in all 50 states at all times. Now this is being

challenged in the courts TBD whether or not this is going to actually survive the the various fights with state attorneys general but I think in terms of a mechanism that is actually impacting the landscape of prediction

markets this is probably the most important term which you're going to hear again and again is federal preeemption u that's why I had it for the best new mechanism of 2025 so okay

now we got best meme this one's this one's a banger we'll start with you what did you for best meme of 2025.

>> So, who remembers when the Trump administration initially released tariffs?

Raise your hand.

>> Oh, the board.

>> The board.

>> So, no. The best meme. Our social media intern at the chopping block when the video AI tools were still earlier. I

mean 2025 was a long time ago. Released

I think the best video content we have released as a podcast which was the four hosts working in a Chinese toy factory

with the sad music memeing videos that were going around Tik Tok and like Chinese media about like >> we got we got to play a little clip of that just for everybody who doesn't who

didn't see it.

>> Best meme of 2025.

Nice.

>> Very nice.

>> That could be a meme right there. Clip

that.

>> So, I had best meme of 2025 was digital asset stockpile.

So, I don't know if any of you remember this, but Trump said there's going to be a stockpile of other crypto.

>> There was an executive order that included a digital asset stockpile.

That's right. That's right. Was supposed

to go in there. ADA is supposed to go in there.

>> ADA. Yeah.

>> Nothing. Nothing. Absolutely. Zilch

doesn't exist. Probably will never exist, but there's an executive order about it. You know, red meat for the

about it. You know, red meat for the crypto industry. I say best meme of

crypto industry. I say best meme of 2025.

Tun, what do you have? Best meme 2025.

>> So, I I I don't know if it was like quite a meme, but it it was the thing that stuck to me the most. You know, I think oftentimes when there's a hack in crypto, people have,

you know, the the crowd is will like loves to find the worst in everything and like you know, whatever the per person who's like dealing with it oftentimes isn't necessarily the best of

crisis comes and things don't go well.

But the bybit hack post hack and being such a large hack and still having such a good response and like the memes of the video of like Ben. I thought that

was pretty good because like how do you get memes out of like a billion dollar plus hack and if you can do that that means you've like aced Crisis comes and it's not again it wasn't like the most

funny meme or but I I thought it was like somehow taking this thing that was like a huge negative and flipping it. I

I thought that was very impressive.

I was really hoping you were going to say the Tun Neobbot meme where there's taroon bot like folding clothes in the house. You know, that was pretty good.

house. You know, that was pretty good.

That was pretty good.

>> You're really up on the on the social on the the chopping block intern.

>> Yeah. I feel like Robert's really saying best meme chopping block intern.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Our social media team is the best. Follow

>> chopping block on the intern. the

intern.

>> Um, Tom, what do you have? Best meme?

>> So, I thought this meme, not only the aesthetics of it appealed to me, but also is very topical for a year where so much happened and so many things people thought were going to happen kind of

happened, but also a lot of things didn't happen and in some ways nothing ever happens. And I think that was very

ever happens. And I think that was very much a theme for the year. You thought

you were going to get, you know, the US government buying Bitcoin. No, you're

not. It's that's not going to happen.

Thought you're going to get tariffs.

That's not really happening either. But

you can believe it for a small period of time. And you know, some might say you

time. And you know, some might say you even you you could you could fall for it. And so this is um I really love the

it. And so this is um I really love the the fell for it again award meme. Have

you seen this? It's also it's really just this this template with like really high skill expression. And people have just gone, you know, really really crazy building all sorts of, you know, very

elaborate landscapes and portraits using the never the fell for it again um award meme. So that's my that's my meme of the

meme. So that's my that's my meme of the year. Wow.

year. Wow.

Spoken like a true meme lord. Thank you.

That's a That's a very deep very deep cut meme. That's like a Michelin starred

cut meme. That's like a Michelin starred meme right there.

>> You need the highbrow and the low brow together.

>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I respect that. Okay.

All right. Next category is best pivot.

I'll go first on this one since I haven't gone first yet. So, my vote for best pivot is Galaxy pivoting to a data center company.

>> Oh, this is so close to my one. You're

scooping me.

>> Okay. Yeah. So, Galaxy, for those who don't know, of course, Galaxy uh digital, which is like a crypto merchant bank thing. They thought that the

bank thing. They thought that the business they IPOed was a crypto business. Well, it turns out that they

business. Well, it turns out that they acquired this data center company from a Bitcoin miner that became this company called Helios, which became a subcontractor to um uh uh Cororeweave

and is now contracting over a billion dollars in annual recurring revenue over 15 years with Cororee. It is now the lion share of the enterprise value of Galaxy. Galaxy is now an AI

Galaxy. Galaxy is now an AI infrastructure company. The crypto

infrastructure company. The crypto business is tiny compared to this gigantic AI bet that they have that's paid off. Um so good for them, but um

paid off. Um so good for them, but um yeah, quite a pivot. I I'd say best pivot. This definitely counts as like

pivot. This definitely counts as like best pivot in my mind. So that's my vote for best pivot. Tom, what do you have?

Best worst pivot of 25.

>> Well, for for best pivot, I actually had ETH and Tom Lee and basically Tom Lee rebranding ETH as stable coin layer. And

I think it was like one of those things that was >> for cryptot for crypto.

>> Anything and everything can be can be really but I think it's one of those things where I think people have been very frustrated by the EF's like reluctance to embrace DeFi and I think stable coins as as a product of that for

so long and then you just get Tom Lee going on TV and be like no this is how people are gonna pay each other in the future. What do you mean this this is

future. What do you mean this this is like the future of finance? And like

that was kind of all you needed. And so

I don't know if it's a pivot. I don't

know if it counts, but I I think it's sometimes just like having someone almost with with beginner's mind, beginner eyes from from the mouth of babes or from the mouth of Tom Lee.

That's kind of all you need sometimes.

>> Tom Lee is kind of a babe. I get it.

>> Robert, what do you got?

>> Well, this is closely related to his already, but I'm going to go with Cororeweave. So Cororeweave was an

Cororeweave. So Cororeweave was an Ethereum GPU mining company. They were

literally mining Ether and then everything over time, you know, Ethereum switched to proof of stake and I don't really know what happened to Coree. And

then you blink and Cororeweave goes public this past year and is now a $40 billion company because they've pivoted their Ethereum GPU mining business into

an AI data center company. And this is a, you know, if you want to take the meme of like pivot from crypto to AI, this is a true historical pivot from

crypto to AI that generated a lot of value. And yes, Galaxy is a

value. And yes, Galaxy is a subcontractor for Cororeweave, but Cororeweave is the big dog, right? And

they've pulled off an incredible pivot and they have really done something successful there. So,

successful there. So, >> are you a shareholder? Do you own >> I am not a shareholder? Now I

>> Oh, shoot.

>> Yeah. If only I could have seen the pivot from crypto to AI.

>> Yeah. Damn. All right, Tun, what do you have? Best worst pivot.

have? Best worst pivot.

>> Yeah, so this one is a very long time pivot, but I think it's kind of worth remembering that they've pivoted. And I

think I have to give this in the best category to Lighter because Lighter is kind of a crazy company in cryp by crypto standards. like they were founded

crypto standards. like they were founded in 2017 as a networking app for co-founders called Lunch Club in San Francisco. In fact,

there were like two of these types of things I've led to crypto companies.

Like Alchemy was this before and Lighter was this. But Lighter, you know, like in

was this. But Lighter, you know, like in a world where everyone's always talking to you about how fast a company is growing or like time to X revenue is

like three days. This is a company that like took a long road and its company split in two and the other companies is

a a successful AI company in cognition but you know they kind of took a long road went through a lot of different ideas built this product for a while

coming at it from like hey we're a bunch of people who worked in trading but we also like ZK and then yeah like they got users they TGED I think like you can count that It's like

the full cycle of a pivot getting to this point. And I think, you know, yes,

this point. And I think, you know, yes, they probably officially pivoted 2024, 2023, but I I I feel like realizing a successful pivot probably is this year.

And so >> I did not realize that Lunch Club was co-founder dating. That's

co-founder dating. That's >> kind of it's like and networking that matches people to like meet at Yeah.

>> It's like down to lunch.

>> Founder market fit. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Like the founder market fit there for Vlad in co-founder dating is like so incredibly bad compared to lighter which is so incredibly good.

>> But that's why I'm saying >> lighter is exactly what Vlad should be building dating.

>> This is why I'm giving the best pivot.

>> It's a good pivot. No.

>> I I also think in crypto very few companies persist. People constantly

companies persist. People constantly start something, toss it off, start a new thing, right? So it's like it's almost nine years. And I think like that

is something it's like kind of a crazy thing like most people would have just killed the old company started a new company but you sort of kept the cap table some employees over such a long

time period in very volatile industries you know I I think that that does sort of deserve a really good pivot story and like I think it probably just hasn't been told because I don't know if you

want to highlight the co-founder dating stuff in 2026 because I don't think that's like like in 2016. I could see that being in the meta, right? Like now

I don't think >> Yeah, it's a good one.

>> Okay, so next category we have coming up on the end here is biggest flop.

So something for which there was high expectations did not quite deliver.

Biggest flop of 2025. Trun, why don't you start? What do you got?

you start? What do you got?

>> I mean, I guess I've said it on the show. I've gotten I've both been on both

show. I've gotten I've both been on both sides of the iron for it, but definitely October 10th and sort of the liquidation mechanisms just like October 10th >> flop.

>> Well, liquidation mechanisms flopped.

>> Liquidation mechan Okay, that's your flop. The

flop. The >> like the October 10th like event showing the liquidation >> showing the ADL.

>> Yeah. A and like I I fundamentally agree with Don Wilson's point even though I don't agree with the solution he proposes of like you're not really going

to grow the market 100x unless you fix this. And I think that just showed like

this. And I think that just showed like how brittle some of these things are especially in a decentralized environment. And I think it's obviously

environment. And I think it's obviously the biggest thing that has to get fixed if we want 100x volume overall like stuff like that for the average user. So

yeah, but I'm sure I'm gonna get a ton of hate in my Twitter, which I had for saying this even, but >> All right, I'll go next. I had for

biggest flop of 2025 was AI agents.

Obviously, we went into the year is a crypto podcast around AI. Yeah. Well, I

mean like think of virtuals, think of Zerro, think of AI6Z. Like this was everywhere when we started the year and all this stuff is now it's not just that

the tokens went down. It's that it's [ __ ] annoying. Like nobody likes any of these things anymore. It's like oh my god it's so look it's a it's something that has crypto and it's talking to us on Twitter and now it's just like oh man

like tell AXP to shut the [ __ ] up. Like

I do not want that thing in my comments.

So the sentiment shift, but also like the fact that I mean obviously the the speculative mania has died away, but also just the fact that these things have just really underdelled in terms of value. Now it's not to say they never

value. Now it's not to say they never will. It's not to say that AI agents

will. It's not to say that AI agents don't matter. Obviously outside of

don't matter. Obviously outside of crypto, you know, people are very excited about coding agents and what they can do and and the the ability to automate real valuable economic work.

But the idea that they're going to be these token speculative things, I think that is been the biggest flop of 25.

Uh Tom, what is your pick? Biggest flop

2025. I

>> I always I kind of don't really love this category because it always feels like we're punching down a little bit, but in this case it is kind of very explicitly. I have bar chain. It's it's

explicitly. I have bar chain. It's it's

hard to remember, but take yourself back a year ago and bar chain was a hot one of the hottest up and cominging new chains mentioned in the same breath as a monad or a mega eth raising at

multi-billion dollar valuations. so

much. She posted a picture today of a photo of their like token 2049 picture party from last year that was just like, you know, mobbed and they were like the bear baddies. It was this whole thing.

bear baddies. It was this whole thing.

And then they launched the token about a year ago and it's really been down only since then and it's down like 90%. And

it's just I can't remember the last time I've heard someone mention Bar Chain to me in in earnest. it was like the chain that didn't take itself seriously and then of course you no one took it

seriously and so I again I feel a little bad punching down but in this case it is kind of hard to believe that that was just a year ago so that's my my big flop.

>> Okay that's I mean it's accurate. Uh

Robert what do you have biggest flop of 25?

>> Well this one will be controversial and it's also a little bit sad and this is >> okay >> curse you should curse to sell the controversial.

>> No no no no this is a flop on a relative basis. Okay, I'm gonna say Bitcoin

basis. Okay, I'm gonna say Bitcoin because this was a year. Hold on, hold on. Let me explain. Yes, it was only

on. Let me explain. Yes, it was only down 6%. For 2025, but this is a year

down 6%. For 2025, but this is a year that should have been Bitcoin's year.

Gold was up a very, very significant amount. From a macro perspective,

amount. From a macro perspective, everything was up. Equities rampaged,

right? On a relative bit basis, Bitcoin was a flop this year. And that goes for the crypto asset complex.

>> Maybe we should be counting fiscally. If

you do fiscal year, Bitcoin outperformed the NASDAQ.

>> Sure. But my expectations were higher.

I I think the investor class in general was expecting bigger things from Bitcoin and therefore crypto in general. This

was a very soft year, very soft year when it should have been a very strong year. And so,

year. And so, >> you know, I don't want to give Bitcoin the prize, but I think Bitcoin is the biggest flop in my opinion for the importance of the asset for the

industry.

>> Okay, fair enough. No, that's a that's a strong [ __ ] strong answer, Robert.

>> Actually, is is the flop Bitcoin or is the flop the four-year cycle, the Having cycle?

>> Cuz it's kind of like >> How is that how No, that's not a flop.

like a guarantor like that has been reinforced.

The four-year cycle came true. No, like

how's that?

>> I think I think I think Bitcoin being down on the year for some people is a sign that the the the happening has has lost its impact on on supply shock. Like

no one cares anymore.

>> Wait, but the happening waiting happen?

Wasn't that years ago?

>> Uh it was April April 2024. So I don't >> not not having >> Yeah. No, like the four year Yeah. The

>> Yeah. No, like the four year Yeah. The

four year cycle predicts that this year is the end of the cycle and it should go down, >> right? But there is sort of something

>> right? But there is sort of something weird about the the end. I I I was I This is the part where I like I haven't really >> All right. We need to get some We need to get some rainbow charters up on here.

>> Actually, can can we can we cut my intro?

>> No, we cannot. We're keeping that.

>> No, we're not keeping that.

>> We're going to put that in the intro.

We're putting that in the intro permanently. Uh, I I like I I I Yeah, I

permanently. Uh, I I like I I I Yeah, I mess up.

>> All right. No, it's good. Perfect. All

right. Tune doesn't care about Bitcoin and he has no idea what the four-year cycle is.

>> Yeah.

>> All right.

>> I I only know Eric Wall's rainbow chart.

Okay. That's like the only That's That's what I live and die by.

>> Okay. All right. Comeback story. Biggest

comeback story of 2025. I will go first.

I have biggest comeback story of 2025 is Near. So Near basically had this

Near. So Near basically had this renaissance with intents where all of a sudden now I mean it's it kind of tied in with the Zcash story of Zcash coming up near I think it kind of been left for

dead people like oh you know what does this chain do who cares about it um all of a sudden it's kind of re-entered the zeitgeist with the growth of intense and uh for anybody who's bought Z or not anybody but many people who bought Zcash

uh because it's not available in a lot of jurisdictions precisely the reason why something like near intense is attractive is because you can buy any asset on any chain using MC uh uh using

multi-party computation using near intents. So I had comeback story near

intents. So I had comeback story near drun what do you have for comeback story of the year?

>> I have Maple Finance which if you look at the TVL chart kind of says the entire story you know like they've gone through

everything hack issues counterparty issues etc. But I mean just look at the chart. I don't I don't there's like not

chart. I don't I don't there's like not that much else to say. Like that chart is very impressive and is a very real comeback.

>> Yeah. But syrup is the asset you want to look at now.

>> Yeah.

>> Because NPL has been >> Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. I don't mean

>> Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. I don't mean their token necessar I mean just like the overall usage of >> loans associated to Maple, the complex of them because like now there's multiple products but Yeah.

>> Yeah. Good. Good. Robert, what do you have?

This is in my opinion the biggest Tether. Tether is a company that

Tether. Tether is a company that >> What's the company?

>> Yeah. Wait, they're the biggest winner last year. I

last year. I >> Yeah. Yeah. No, it's continue though.

>> Yeah. Yeah. No, it's continue though.

This was came back from winning to win again.

>> Fine. You don't like my controversial pick for biggest comeback?

>> No, we're sorry. I apologize. I

apologize. Please tell us why Tether is the biggest comeback story.

>> Let's just call it Fine. We'll rephrase

this. You ready? Tether as a respected asset and company. This was their comeback year with the Trump administration.

>> Reputation of Tether.

>> Yeah. Reputationally Tether. This is a year where yes, Tether had a lot of stable coins last year and they were printing money last year, but this is the year where they're out there raising

at a $500 billion valuation from US institutions. Okay, this is the tether

institutions. Okay, this is the tether comeback year from a reputational perspective and stickiness perspective and acceptance in the broader

socioeconomic political economic industrial complex.

>> They're no longer the bad boys. That's

actually your your comeback came back. I

was I you know I had really low expectations coming back.

>> That's good. That's good.

Going from biggest winner to biggest comeback that almost impossible to do, but they pulled it off.

>> The intern's going to have a field day with this episode.

>> Yeah. All right, Tom, what do you have for biggest comeback?

>> I also had the the buy hack, so I guess it could be a >> I was going to say by like someone else is going to say that, so I'm gonna I'm gonna leave that off.

>> Yeah, I think some obvious ones we actually don't get to because everyone's afraid someone else is going to take it.

I mean, I I feel like um getting hacked for a billion dollars and then handling it so gracefully, having that all come back like kind of actually reabsorbing like pretty much all the loss in terms of, you know, volume and consumer

interest and like I I just like would not have been able to predict that. I

think that would have sounded absurd if you told that to someone, you know, four or five years ago that one of the largest exchanges is going to get hacked, but it's actually going to be totally fine. that that's like kind of

totally fine. that that's like kind of an a crazy story and I think speaks to like again how much the industry is is maturing and sort of progressing and also just frankly how well they handle it. So props to them.

it. So props to them.

>> Good. Very very good. Okay. Second to

last category is favorite chopping block guest of 2025. We had a lot of guests through the year. Uh we had some big heavy hitters. We also had some crazy

heavy hitters. We also had some crazy people who came and joined us on the show. So who do you think Robert? We'll

show. So who do you think Robert? We'll

start with you. best guest of 2025.

Who's your vote?

>> My vote just from a hosting perspective and who I enjoyed the most having on the show. You know, I don't know if um this

show. You know, I don't know if um this is, you know, your favorite. It probably

is, but Hester Pur, Cryptom, SEC commissioner, leading, you know, the comeback of crypto in the United States of America. Absolute joy to have her on

of America. Absolute joy to have her on the show. This was early in the year.

the show. This was early in the year.

This is the USA's comeback. You know, we could have picked USA as well, but you know, she's kind of the vanguard of leading the charge to make the US the

crypto capital again.

>> It's almost like having Trump on the show.

>> Yeah. Coming on the tail end of the, you know, the Gendler exit. I mean, that was my favorite guest. You know, I just think it set the tone for the year so well. And maybe we can outdo ourselves

well. And maybe we can outdo ourselves by this year having Paul Atkins on the show. You know, you're invited, Paul, if

show. You know, you're invited, Paul, if you're listening. But favorite g

you're listening. But favorite g favorite guest.

>> Yeah, that's it was great. Uh Tom,

favorite guest.

>> I thought I thought I was going to get scooped on this one. I had Joe Weisenthal from um OddLots. Um was

really great. Well, I got scooped some.

>> Yes.

>> All right. So, I mean, all three of us are Joe.

>> I mean, we could just That's fine. We

could just all >> Yeah. No, it's true. I mean, if it's

>> Yeah. No, it's true. I mean, if it's true, it's true. Joe was fun.

>> Yeah. Joe was really, >> you know, it takes a professional podcaster to to really be a great guest.

>> It's true. Well, the thing the thing about Joe that I really enjoyed was that he was just so earnestly like not in crypto. He was like just in crypto

crypto. He was like just in crypto enough to know enough to ask good like probing questions and he was game but and also because it was in person it was just like a lot more, you know, flowing

than I think a lot of the other video interviews. Yeah, Joe was Joe was great.

interviews. Yeah, Joe was Joe was great.

He was just like, >> I think also content >> having a skeptic who's good at paying at good at like framing things is like good

because I I kind of think it's obviously if you're running crypto podcasts very easy to have guests who are in crypto or live and breathe every day, right? But like getting someone

day, right? But like getting someone who's like every once every hundred things they read is in crypto, maybe less than that, but then like has a you

know gives a good kind of holistic view.

I think like that's something maybe maybe we can we can do more of in 26 because I do feel like that episode came out.

>> Yeah, I I do think it's the vibe of the show that we are kind of cryptokeepics despite the fact that we're also crypto insiders is that we talk [ __ ] We call things out. We're very blunt. We're not

things out. We're very blunt. We're not

just cheerleaders for the industry. And

I think that's part of the reason why people like the show is that we we we try to keep it real. At the same time, we also try to be positive and constructive on the things that we do think matter and we don't just try to fall into this vibe of negativity or

just criticism for its own sake. But

yeah, I I do agree having somebody who is a a competent skeptic is very refreshing and it's it's I think very necessary to just be able to hear back like here's what it sounds like you guys

are doing. Is that what you guys are

are doing. Is that what you guys are doing? Because it's kind of what it

doing? Because it's kind of what it sounds like. And yeah, it's it was yeah,

sounds like. And yeah, it's it was yeah, we should we should definitely I I agree. Let's let's try to find more of

agree. Let's let's try to find more of that energy in 2026.

So, okay, last section is predictions.

And as we're going through predictions, what I want to do is actually go back to what our predictions were for 2025 when we made them at the end of the year in 2024.

>> Spoiler alert, not good.

>> Yeah, I bet we're like, >> don't worry about it. Don't worry about it. Okay, we're going to go we're going

it. Okay, we're going to go we're going to go through them one by one, okay?

because each of us made multiple predictions. So, my predictions were

predictions. So, my predictions were that Bitcoin is going to hit 150K and then dump. Now, I was kind of right that

then dump. Now, I was kind of right that it did dump. It did dump, but it did not hit 150K, max out at 126. I said that DI tokens were going to turbo pump.

>> Um, they did momentarily. That's what a pump means. A pump can still dump. So,

pump means. A pump can still dump. So,

they did momentarily, but that, you know, didn't totally age well. And then

I said AAI coins go bananas but little protocol adoption. I'd say, you know, I

protocol adoption. I'd say, you know, I they did go bananas. They were already bananas by the end of 2024. So I'm going to say this is mostly partially right, partially wrong. I'll

say kind of a mix on that one. Okay. So

that was me. Robert, you said that Bitcoin was going to hit 180K. So you

won up me. So you were more wrong than I was. You did not say it was going to

was. You did not say it was going to dump. You said that cryptoc legislation

dump. You said that cryptoc legislation would be signed into US law. Genius.

That counts.

>> Genius. All right. Yeah. Yep.

>> That genius count. So, I'd say that that'd be good. AI based system becomes a crypto scammer in a newsworthy way that's going to be published on the block or on Coindesk.

>> Um, >> I don't think >> I don't think I don't think so. I don't

think that happened. I don't know.

>> On the other hand, scammers are definitely using AI assistants. So,

>> they are, but like scammers are using every like everyone's using everything, you know? Like my assistant is using AI.

you know? Like my assistant is using AI.

Does that mean that >> Yeah. Yeah. No, no, no. I I agree. I

>> Yeah. Yeah. No, no, no. I I agree. I

agree. But I'm just saying like there's a we also it's a little underspecified.

>> It is a little underspecified but let's let's you know we we got to give a we got to give a fair shake. Okay. So Tun

yours was more than one appchain merge.

>> I don't think we've seen any mergers. I

think that one's a miss.

>> Yeah I I kind of think there were like these consortiums but yeah I don't think there >> Yeah, there's no mergers. There's no

mer. Okay. So then you said that AI As a Asian market cap will at least 5x >> from where it was which was 10 billion to 50 billion. Okay, that was your

claim. So that I'm going to put that as

claim. So that I'm going to put that as like d like two like five wrongs >> in making that claim.

>> And then you the last prediction you made was that Salana emissions would decrease by more than 25%.

>> Believe that's also wrong. I believe it didn't pass. Yeah, SMD 228 did not pass.

didn't pass. Yeah, SMD 228 did not pass.

So you are zero for three. And then Tom, your predictions were that a money game is going to go mainstream viral as big as the national lottery.

>> Definitely not.

>> Did not happen. Did not happen.

>> Did not happen.

>> Did not happen. Okay. So, you said a new lame crypto ETF will launch like XRP or Litecoin.

>> I'll give you that one. XRP ETF

launched. XRP ETF launched. Litecoin

launched. H bar launched. Doge launched.

Uh, and then you said a massive application level compromise in a library or an application. I think yeah that that happened multiple times. There

were like supply chain attacks against various libraries.

>> There was just one like a week ago Trust Wallet, right? That was like a Yeah.

Wallet, right? That was like a Yeah.

Yeah. So you got this one. So I would say the one to do the best is Tom. Tom

got two out of three.

>> I I think I need to swing a little bigger, you know? I think I think these are the two base hits you guys.

>> The supply chain tech was pretty safe.

Supply chain tech was pretty safe. But

lame crypto ETF. I feel like that's a little bit more of a reach.

>> Next time I But this year I want to see something both from you like to run.

Okay. I want to hear I want to hear a 5X. I want to hear a 5X.

5X. I want to hear a 5X.

>> All right.

>> I I feel I feel like I was bullied into big predictions.

>> File battery claim against the rest of your co-hosts.

>> Yeah. All right. Tun was bullied. Let

that let the record show. Um Okay. So,

let's do 2026 predictions. Tun, we'll

let you go first so you don't feel bullied.

>> What are your non-bullied predictions?

Make sure that these are as little influence as possible by potential bullying from the four of us, three of us.

>> AI generated hack generating greater than hundred million dollars of damage.

So, I'm giving a number, not just, hey, there will be one.

>> I feel like that's almost already occurred.

>> Not provably.

>> Well, people talk about the balancer hack being maybe AI vibe coded. Yeah.

Which is 70 million.

>> Yeah. Has almost occurred.

>> Yeah.

>> Okay. That's not a huge >> This is pretty safe. This sounds pretty safe. This does not sound like a 5X.

safe. This does not sound like a 5X.

This is not a 5X.

>> That's it. I'm not bullying you. That

said, I'm not bullying you.

>> I'm taking the Tom strategy this year.

>> Okay. Okay. All right. Safe safe bet.

All right. So, 100 million in an AI powered hack. Okay.

powered hack. Okay.

>> Uh I think a non-trivial percentage of AI capex will be funded in stable coins.

>> Okay. Hold on. All right. All right.

Hold on. These are too vague. All right.

Give me a point estimate.

So, you said at least 100 million. Give

me an actual point estimate and we'll decide at the end how wrong you are from that estimate.

>> Between 1 and 5%.

It's like zero now.

>> Okay. One and five. Okay. So, let's say 2.5%. Or 3%. 3% of AI funding will

2.5%. Or 3%. 3% of AI funding will happen in stable coins.

>> Yeah.

>> Okay.

>> That's a big one because that that's a larger number still.

>> Okay. I got it.

>> All right. Do you have Um, >> okay. The answer is no. It's fine. You

>> okay. The answer is no. It's fine. You

don't need to make >> the answer really. Yeah. Yeah. I don't I I I have some bad ones I have.

>> I see the computer running. Yeah.

Defragging.

>> I have some bad ones that I have written and I'm like I don't really even think they're working.

>> You don't want to tell us that. You got

to tell us the bad ones now.

I mean one one of the bad ones is like we'll actually have uh private DeFi usage grow like like you know the Zcash that you know my my

trickle down privacy economics thing >> of course trickle down privacy economics >> there will be that that will happen somewhere >> that will happen >> I don't know okay yeah >> like a very it will happen

>> difficult to verify yeah very difficult to verify >> yeah it's a bad it's a bad that's why I was like All right. I think I think that's good.

All right. I think I think that's good.

I think that's good. We'll take the two u >> I'm really good at writing the the market descriptions on poly market because this would just be like a drama like every single >> That's true.

>> I I think my main thing is I made too precise and large predictions last year and so the the natural tendencies like opposite >> gunshot that's not good. That's not

good. You can't you can't be resultsoriented.

>> Okay, I'll go next. So I had predict so obviously I every year I write down my predictions. I'm just quoting from some

predictions. I'm just quoting from some of the predictions I've already made publicly. So my first prediction is that

publicly. So my first prediction is that Bitcoin is going to go to 150K by year end. Second is that a big tech company

end. Second is that a big tech company is going to launch acquire a crypto wallet. It might not go live but they

wallet. It might not go live but they will at least announce that they're going to be shipping a crypto wallet. Um

so when I say big tech, I mean like you know one of the top seven big tech companies like a consumer tech, not like a fintech. Um, and then lastly, that

a fintech. Um, and then lastly, that equity pers will grow to 20% of D5 per volumes over 2026.

>> Okay, that's that one is the big that's your big one. That's your big one.

>> Yeah, >> it's a big one. Um, okay, Tom, predictions.

>> Pretty good. I also had a equity ps one, but I was going to say equity pers at least one asset will match spot for that asset one day this year. So like you'll have the same amount of volume for like

>> spot, but spot spot.

>> Spot spot. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

That's also that's a big >> for like long tail like we're talking about like longtail random stuff that people are putting on chain.

>> I mean I it can be more longtail, you know. I I would include

know. I I would include >> Have you seen any equity pers for longtail? They don't add longtail right

longtail? They don't add longtail right now.

>> Somebody pump and dump some some longtail thing and then technically Trump.

>> Well, I I think everyone's afraid of the oracle stuff. So there is some bias

oracle stuff. So there is some bias towards the large cap.

>> Right. Right. That's why because somebody could totally, you know. Yeah.

Anyway, >> I'm aware. I think this that's why it's aable prediction.

>> That's your prediction. That's your

prediction. All right. We'll let you.

>> Um, next one. I think we will see I'm going to say at least three Dino Chain Foundation windowns. We've obviously

Foundation windowns. We've obviously already seen like one or two over the past year. I think we'll probably see

past year. I think we'll probably see more if like, hey, these things don't actually rally. We're kind of reaching

actually rally. We're kind of reaching that point where people running out of funding and maybe there's other better things to do. Maybe token holder revote revolt TBD. Uh and then three, there'll

revolt TBD. Uh and then three, there'll be some sort of major scandal about insider trading for a nonsecurities or non-sports related prediction market. So

there's already kind of rumors about this floating for like, you know, Maduro. I think something like what will

Maduro. I think something like what will actually happen and maybe there'll be a smoking gun and it'll be this whole kind of kuruffle hole. So you know, that's my my my third prediction.

>> Okay. I'd say that last one sounds pretty safe. But yeah. All right.

pretty safe. But yeah. All right.

Because I feel like we I think we might have already had that in 2026 because Maduro just happened like two days ago.

It's It's true, but I did write this down before that, so I'm going to count it.

>> It's more like a retrodiction at this point, but okay.

>> I I don't want to get scooped by Maduro.

That's [ __ ] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The hard the hard part

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The hard the hard part about predictions is doing them about the future, but okay.

>> Um All right, Robert, what do you have for your 2026 predictions?

>> I will just read out from what I tweeted on December 31st. These are boring.

These are not like to the grade that the chopping block requires. BTC and metals all-time high lukewarm

uh crypto industry consolidation lukewarm market structure >> what does consolidation mean what does consolidation mean >> uh there's going to be more M&A I think we're going to see some like big >> operationalize what how do we know

you're right or wrong give specific claim >> uh >> yeah minimum minimum minimum acquisition price should be something you know like I think that's like >> yeah yeah all right I think there will

be at least five billion ion dollar of crypto M&A this year.

>> Okay. Total asset.

>> Not that much. Wait, has there already been more than five billion last year?

Last year.

>> There was way more than five last year.

>> There was, but that was my >> going to go down.

>> That was my biggest winner from ear earlier in the show was talking about consolidation in 25 and that was like $5 billion, you know. So like 26, let's go with 10. 10 billion.

with 10. 10 billion.

>> Okay. I think there might have been 10 billion as well. I think anyway. All

right. Fine. Fine.

>> We'll have our fact check. Fact check.

>> All right. Because I'm pretty sure like Hidden Road was two. Then there was Ninja Trade that was like also two and then there was like >> you add all billion. Let's

>> 15. There we go. Okay, that's that's a real prediction. That's a real

real prediction. That's a real prediction.

>> Market structure legislation passes. You

know, this is a medium lukewarm one. You

know, I think the odds are good. People

say they're 50/50.

>> Poly market has it at 75.

>> Well, that safe layup. Layup. That's

good. Take them. Take them where you can get them. Yeah. And that's pretty much

get them. Yeah. And that's pretty much it. I'm not much of a predict. My track

it. I'm not much of a predict. My track

record is >> it's all right. That's how you're going to win next year. That's how you're going to win next year. Okay. Um that is it. Uh that takes us to 2026. So last

it. Uh that takes us to 2026. So last

thing I guess I'll ask you guys is like it's been 2025 is harrowing year. We

we've talked about the ups and downs and all the different little subdramas that took place over the year. How are you feeling about 2026? Like what's the vibe? What's the VI? What do you feel

vibe? What's the VI? What do you feel inside going into this new year? And

what personally are you setting as an intention for how you're going to be approaching crypto this year? Tom, why

don't we start with you?

>> Yeah, I um I think in the grand scheme of things, 2025 was not nearly as harrowing as like any of the other past years. I think actually one of like the

years. I think actually one of like the least harrowing years in in memory. I

feel like actually this is kind of more like, you know, when when pilots are like setting up their flight plan and they like put, you know, all their like way points into the flight uh the autopilot and then the plane kind of flies itself from waypoint to way point.

I feel like we already have the way points locked in. Everyone kind of knows what the game plan is at this point more or less. Maybe there'll be some

or less. Maybe there'll be some turbulence. Maybe it'll be good. I don't

turbulence. Maybe it'll be good. I don't

know, some wins, whatever. But like for the most part, I'm kind of like see what the future's going to look like. And

it's it's not super exciting. It's but

that's okay. Like it's good. So I I think if I think that's kind of what I think 2026 is going to be more like is like there's there are fewer unknowns which is is good and bad for for the industry. It's just something we haven't

industry. It's just something we haven't really seen seen before.

>> Fair enough. Darun, how you feeling?

>> I think last year everyone was like way like they're in the middle of the party, took too many drugs and like everyone was like at the peak high and then like

very quickly like by April or something they kind of or March maybe things kind of washed out started washing out a little bit and then everyone tried again. They were like, "Okay, I need a

again. They were like, "Okay, I need a new substance. It's called DATS." And so

new substance. It's called DATS." And so then they got high off the DATs.

>> Got high on DATs. I got high on. Yeah.

Uh, and then and so I think there was a lot of substance abuse issues last year with the crypto industry in this metaphorical sense.

>> That's good. That's good.

>> So, so I think this year is the year of temperance.

>> Straight edge.

>> Temperance. Yeah, that was good.

>> Okay. I like actually, you know what, Robert is a great way to end that off with his no profanity. I think we should make 2026 the year of no profanity. It's

a straight edge. Okay.

>> No, that's so hard. That's so hard.

>> I know. That's your resolution. It's all

of our resolution. Uh Rob, Robert, what's your uh what's the spirit with which you're taking 2026?

I >> I'm excited. I think this is a big year.

I think we've been saying this for like years and years, but the institutions are coming in a big way. I don't know about retail. Retail might not be coming.

retail. Retail might not be coming.

We'll see. The developers are coming. I

think there's more use cases that are coming. I think our government is still

coming. I think our government is still here. I think legislators are here. I

here. I think legislators are here. I

think it's just going to be a great tailwind bullish environment for the whole ecosystem and I I think we're going to have a very good 2026.

>> Well, yeah, I will say I'm feeling really optimistic and really energized.

I think like the fact that as you opened Robert, you know, prices are reset. It

feels like kind of a clean slate.

Although 1010 was a very traumatic event, it also is a big giant reset. And

one of the things that I was saying on a previous show, you know, there's a lot of bad sentiment, horrible vibes, uh, especially in November, and there's a lot of talk from people who are leaving the industry. And one of the things that

the industry. And one of the things that I said at that time is that like actually this is necessary. This is good because the people who are disillusioned and who can no longer fight like those

people need to go home for the war to continue. And it's like, okay, we got to

continue. And it's like, okay, we got to stop. We got to like regroup. We got to,

stop. We got to like regroup. We got to, you know, make sure nobody's left behind. But we chopper them out of here

behind. But we chopper them out of here and we move forward. And um so I yeah, my feeling is that 2026 is going to be a [ __ ] great year. So I'm feeling good.

>> If only you did it first.

>> Sorry. I mean Yeah. If only. Okay.

Starting now. Starting now. Now is the moment that 2026 truly starts. No more

curs.

>> January January 6th when celebrates the new year.

>> January 6 is fiscal year. Fiscal year.

>> You're going to have a cursing dry January. Okay.

January. Okay.

>> All right. I'm going to work on this.

>> That seems easier than the whole year.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I I'll start with January and then we'll work up to see if we can do it for all of 2026. Okay, that

is it from us. We'll be back next week.

Thank you everybody for tuning in as always and we look forward to enjoying 2026 and explaining it all along the way.