Bill Ackman: SVB Collapse; Biden vs Trump; How I Lost $400M on Netflix; Bill's 10-Year Long | E991

know the Biden wealth tax which is like

25 percent of the appreciation of things

that you own privately it's going to

bankrupt every startup no one will ever

start a business in America anymore

right because you know God forbid

someone puts money in your company at a

billion dollar valuation if you own half

the company you owe 100 million dollars

in taxes that year you know those kinds

of taxes I think are destructive you

don't have a tax policy that destroys

the economy bill I am so excited for

this I've heard so many great things I

just told you I was messing with Jackie

Reese's but I had so many wonderful

things so thank you so much for joining

me today mom to let it be here I would

love to start I've listened to many of

your interviews before and bluntly I

wanted to ask different questions and so

I want to start with you went to HBS and

then you founded Gotham how was raising

the first fund

uh it was fun uh it was a bit like blind

Eddie a lot of blind dates not much

success uh but we had uh I think we

eventually saw well over 100 people

and we had six people ultimately say yes

and give us money and the six people

total 3.1 million dollars actually three

million and my partner and I put a bond

together

what word what didn't work 100 meetings

there must have been some lessons so uh

what was interesting is anyone who knew

me as a kid wouldn't give us money

and the scene went true for my partner

because they thought of me the

perspective was me as a high school kid

or a elementary school kid or whatever

so I had no success with anyone I knew

um but of the original six four of the

six were in the 400 wealthiest people in

America so we went to people who were

worth 400 million dollars we asked them

for like a half million bucks and that

was a good strategy actually and what

was interesting is who the people who

were entrepreneurs

really like the idea of backing a couple

of young guy a couple young guys were

entrepreneurs and I think that was a big

part of the connection and the pitch we

made so we said look we're not doing

venture capital

we're investing in you know uh public

companies uh we're doing you know

detailed due diligence we have no track

record but we have a strategy that is an

excellent track record you know we're

you know Mr we're Warren Buffett

devotees

and we still look we're putting all of

our collected networks in we're you know

missing out on the opportunity to go

work at McKinsey or Goldman Sachs to do

this we've been successful up to date

and everything we've done you know we've

whatever I did well in high school went

to a good college did well there

um

you have gone to Harvard Business School

had success in my job prior to

Business Schools we sold them on

track record of Life success no

experience a lot of moxie and uh you

know what if we fail you're not gonna

lose all your money because we don't

lose leverage right we're buying real

companies that are discounted what

they're worth

you know reasonably concentrated

and I think the psychic

uh actually one of the interesting

things that happened is my partner David

burkowitz said Bill unless we raise

three million I'm not go going forward

with you and so we were stubbornly stuck

at like 2-6

and it's like February and we and we're

like look we don't launch by March long

we're done

and in when we went to see people we

actually wrote up a number of investment

ideas

and uh we wrote up four companies and

one of the guys we went to see was the

error of a famous New York City real

estate family

and he turned a step

but he invested in all the ideas one of

them was up 90 between the time we saw

him one was up 50 you know one like

doubled and like the short we

recommended imploded it was like an

incredible thing and he calls us up

sheepishly and he says look I uh I

invested in your ideas and I felt it was

morally wrong for me not to invest with

you guys and he gave us a half a million

bucks and that was like the the

increment that got us over uh the three

million dollar marketing started and we

made it to 3.1 with that check I I

learned a lot from my first partnership

um you mentioned David there what did

you learn about great Partnerships from

that first partnership with David so

David was a great partner and we remain

really great uh friends we don't see

each other as much as I would like we

actually the very very beginning we

lived together uh Kind of a Funny Story

I had worked for a company called

General Atlantic uh real estate which

was a the real estate uh private Equity

subsidiary of the well-known you know

kind of venture firm it's something they

disbanded over time I worked there for

the summer

and I got an apartment they gave me a

good deal on an apartment and a building

at uh the address was 360 East 88th

Street and uh we we shared the apartment

uh you know keeping costs down at the

very very beginning of time and kind of

the funny story is you know many many

years later

um my daughter my my youngest uh

daughter was in the building uh with the

with the The Nanny on a way to a

playdate and she said um

you know she was here to see it was

Eloise Ackman here to see some other

child in the building and the and the

doorman said where the concierge

whatever they called and said oh Ackman

there used to be someone named akman who

lived in this building you know like you

know maybe eight or nine years ago

and uh is it would it be Bill Ackman and

she said yeah Bill Ackman and the guy

laughed and laughed and laughed is he

married and she said yes he said to a

woman

and she said yes so the two of us living

together they thought we were a couple

and it was because the building didn't

allow singles to share Apartments

but because I had worked for the

landlord they had made the exception

anyway I don't know if it's relevant for

your particular podcast but I thought it

was kind of a funny story I think it's

hilarious as a doorman for probably a

year thought that you were and David

were romantically involved so my point

is we spent a lot of time together

originally office out of that little

apartment while we were raising money

and then we eventually got a real office

and the key thing is picking someone

that you totally trust and uh David is

you know one of the uh Trustees of or

executors of trust Etc and I do the same

for his kids

um so if you can work together succeed

together go through some challenging

times together and still want

rely on the other for the most trusted

things that's a pretty good sign that so

choose your partners carefully but

choose someone you totally trust I've

had my trust broken before and it's very

damaging and hurtful

um can I ask you do you start from Full

trust and it's there to be lost or do

you start from none and it's there to be

gained

uh I probably probably neither

um but I would say I form a view of a

person's uh character

pretty quickly

and the vast majority of the time I've

been rice

uh with only a few disappointments I

would say and the disappointments have

been cases

in most cases and there have been many

were my Spidey Sense had a little bit of

concern but I chose to ignore the the

gut instinct right the gut is actually

part of your brain as we've come to

learn I think over time and I think it's

important to to listen to it and I've

learned to listen to it a little more

carefully and by the way it depends on

what you're trusting someone with right

degree of trust required for someone to

take care of a child or a parent versus

someone to invest with a small sum a

large sum you know a bank you know with

different kinds of fiduciary so it

depends on what kind of trust you need

uh but you know someone you're going to

work with

um so it

it kind of depends but David is someone

I was in the classroom with at HBS for

basically a full year and then spent a

lot of time with them the second year I

had a pretty good understanding of who

he was by the time he went into business

together and I wasn't surprised by

anything

you know we mentioned trust I didn't

plan on it going this way bluntly Bill

uh my my father was one who broke my

trust and really hurt me and so much of

that actually shapes what I'm running

from which is him ah I didn't want to be

him and I don't want to be like him in

any way

um and I guess I think about a lot when

you think about what you're running from

what do you think you're running from

I don't know like I'm running from

anything I think I'm running toward

things what are you running towards

um you know greater happiness

self-actualization you know great

relationships friendships uh

and uh what am I running away from Maybe

death disease uh you know so what do I

want to minimize the risk of something

bad happening what do I want to maximize

you know happiness and where does it

come from

uh fulfillment relationships

uh self-actualization achievements

things like this can I be blunt do you

appreciate happiness when you have it

it's very hard when you're on a

treadmill you look back to sharing that

apartment with David having a three

million fund now if you could see

yourself back then you'd say you have

everything I could have dreamed of more

do you appreciate that happiness when

you have it of course of course and by

the way I've been consistently happy uh

pretty much since birth so I've had I

have I've had volatility in my uh career

I've had volatility in my marriage and

now uh I'm now married again

um I've gone through challenging times

I've experienced sadness and loss and

all those things but I think the

underworld you know the undergirding

support here is is is happiness I am an

optimist

and I'm a happy guy

you mentioned on your interview with

Shane Parish I was just listening to it

on the run you said about kind of

nothing ever being a straight line up

when you think about like your line so

to speak in terms of the trajectory what

was the biggest step and what did you

learn from that specific moment

so I had a few dips uh one of the

biggest dips which seems far away and

like nothing now but it was very

significant one was in the dolphin

Partners days and that was when we wrote

or I wrote it in this case a white paper

on uh it was called is mbia AAA where I

questioned the AAA uh credit rating of a

bond insurer this is about five years in

advance of the credit crisis and then I

found myself uh you know never before

had I taken on a politically powerful

influential big company

and uh I found myself under the gun and

ultimately under investigation by Elliot

Spitzer uh then the SEC Falls suit and

then all the negative headlines and then

we were forced to wind down uh you know

Gotham it was certainly as the headlines

at the time called it a fall from grace

uh so that was I would say big challenge

number one

I would say big Challenge number two

business-wise was certainly the the

period beginning late 2015 through

late 2017 and then in the midst of that

uh you know ending a marriage

um you know so I've got a few like that

but I've been very fortunate yeah none

of these things are really catastrophic

versus a serious you know Health

Challenge which I which I've not had and

hope to defer forever if I can you've

said before that success is defined by

how you deal with the failure when you

look back to say you know that fall from

grace so to speak with Gotham in that

time and 2015 is 2017 in that patch when

the war's in process what do you tell

yourself

I tell myself to make progress every day

um you know the the advice I give

friends who go through similarly

challenging moments and I guarantee you

that you know in life it's the rare

person that doesn't go through a very uh

dark period

is well number one you know adequate

sleep

proper nutrition exercise is a huge uh

help during you know build muscle during

those period of time and get in really

good shape because that I think

psychologically is a boost surround

yourself with people who love you

and then make sure each day you make

progress toward digging yourself out of

the mess and that in that kind of

progress uh physical mental business

compounds uh and it compounds at a

pretty high rate

and it's not long before you look back

60 90 120 180 days and you've made

massive progress and and one of the

great things about America

his and uh you know I know you uh do

with lots of startups and Venture

capitalists is that

you know failure is something that's uh

can be you know a lot of talented uh

some of the most successful investors in

the world or ones that the first one

didn't work and that you can you know

there's plenty of capital available for

people who've who are

are second time Founders and the first

one was not a successful exit you know

they they quote unquote sold their

company but that that might be slightly

better that means that could mean they

sold the furniture you know it doesn't

mean it doesn't mean that Google bought

them out at a you know 50x bill you know

about tennis players you're a sat down

you're a breakdown what do you tell

yourself in that moment you know uh

don't let the past disrupt the future

right don't be upset that you double

faulted you know 30

405 in the Set uh when you were up with

three you know uh set points because

that you know if you just focus on that

kind of stuff it will distract you and

just you know start with a blank sheet

of paper it's a new set new opportunity

and rebuild from here so that's when the

match is in progress when the match is

over and say you know Gotham's wound

down you know

um I've beaten you in a tennis game

which is very unlikely but take a

hypothetical scenario

um do you do a post-mortem process how

do you learn from that process and what

does that look like sure so I don't know

if I do a formal post-mortem but I

certainly there were a lot of lessons

learned uh about the structure of of

Gotham partners of our first fund and

and uh I learned some pretty valuable

lessons that remarkably

weren't learned by others you know so

Gotham we started out investing in

liquid public securities

and then we went back to investors and

we got the mandate to invest up to a

third of our portfolio in privates

Venture Capital real estate Etc

and a structure so-called side pocket

type structure that enabled that

approach and then inevitably the asset

liability mismatch is what caused us to

wind down because we had a problem with

uh where you know I blame mbia for

intervening in a court case but

ultimately a merger that was critical to

Our Success ended up getting held up on

appeal or held up by a judge ultimately

reversed on appeal that was Sir

you know sort of too late and so the

lesson from the Gotham experience was of

the importance of liquidity

and Mis you know that you shouldn't have

a an open-ended Farm like a hedge fund

where people can redeem Capital you know

liquid assets and so we build Pershing

Square to invest only in you know liquid

large cap public companies and it served

us really well meanwhile I've watched

the rest of the industry or many people

are in the street particularly in the

last couple of years suffer from

precisely the same asset liability

mismatch issues that we had back then

and uh you know so we did learn some

pretty important and valuable lessons

but those lessons were not exported to

the rest of the industry because people

had to make the same mistakes we made

so I guess for me I always like to say

experience is making mistakes and

learning from them and I spend a lot of

time learning from mistakes we and we

talk a lot at the firm not just about

things where we bought something and

went down and lost money

we talk as much about missed opportunity

you know a situation that in light of

our knowledge experience expertise Etc

that we should have exploited uh and

made a fortune on and perhaps made only

a small fortune or made nothing because

we didn't do the work and so those kinds

of mistakes are can be certainly in our

business as important you know missing

missing Google can be a you know as

important a mistake or maybe even a

bigger mistake if you will than uh

Missing uh you know the next like some

other uh making a bad investment that

doesn't work I guess is my fault Jason

on your team told me about couponing so

at least you hit someone that's that's

some good ones we've had some very good

ones you've had some very good ones what

was the most recent mess that you've

debated as a team well at Pershing

Square uh Netflix you know so we we took

about a billion dollar position in

Netflix after the stock fell about 50

percent

and then you know we're a long-term

investor but we learn information within

a few months of the initial investment

ID the next quarter's results that

called cost us to question our entire

thesis and Company

uh and and we exited and took improperly

lost you know 400 million dollars or

something along those lines

um so that was that was a more recent

one but I think what's not written about

in our letters uh but I consider you

know with respect to covid I had a very

early View

what the economic implications of covet

would be were enough of an early view

you know month two months not not uh not

more than that that enable us to make a

fortune hedging covet

I had a very similar view about interest

rates and we were completely ahead of

the curve and the mistake was not making

that a bigger bet we should have made 10

billion dollars on

on hedging interest rate risk instead we

made 2.8 billion because we were a

little timid so I you know some of the

mistakes we've made we had a pretty you

know variant view that we were quite

confident in but we didn't put enough

Capital behind our confidence so well

how do you think about sorry I'm

fascinated how do you think about

position sizing you always want more in

your winners you always want nothing in

your losers so it's not position sizing

so the way we think about it is we're

willing to risk a certain amount of

capital on any one investment and so if

and we you know if you're investing in

the world's most dominant Music Company

Universal Music

it's has very little debt it has a great

Market position and you can predict

business with a very high degree of

confidence and you're buying it at a

fair price

you can assess what's the chance of our

losing

you know 25 of our investment

you know over a several year holding

period And if the answer is very close

to zero which is kind of our assessment

we can make an investment like that

quite large right if you think about

well for risking 20 let's say the most

we could lose in our view on that not

daily Mark to Market loss but a

permanent impairment what would have to

happen for us to be permanently prepared

to lose 25 of our capital in that

investment something pretty

extraordinary

so that kind of investment can be 25 of

our assets because it's something where

uh the risk of loss is very diminished

by virtue of the robustness of the

business

excuse me the capital structure of the

company

whereas you're buying an interest rate

derivative you know we bought

an effect way to think about it is we

want a call option that paid off when

two-year interest rates went above 93

basis points and we had about an

18-month chart

and at the time we bought that

instrument uh to your rates were at 12

basis points so it's a bit like buying a

call option on a stock the stock is 12

and the strike price the call option is

93. it looks massively massively out of

the money

and there's a fixed time frame right so

on something like that

the risk of loss is high because just to

break even you've got to crop you know

the the yield if you will has to go up

you know whatever 9x or something right

8X to to to get into the break-even

territory and so something like that

would make quite small it was less than

it was about a point and a half of our

a little under two percent of our

Capital but could it have been three

percent could have been four percent for

sure

and so when I look back at something

like that I would have been willing to

lose more

um but we had not been an active

participant in the interest rate

derivative's market so we're a little

timid timidity has held back our our

results for sure and I I think it was

what's interesting about those kind of

bets is when you find a hedge that will

protect you if rates rise

but it's also a really interesting

investment on a standalone basis like

you'd make it even if you didn't own a

portfolio because you said look on a

standalone basis the payoff year is

massive right if our views on rates kind

of cold

um you know you can make those larger

than just a pure Hedge

right it's a bit like you know French

you don't want to spend too much money

on insurance otherwise it's too

expensive to live in your home right you

don't want it the payoff on your on your

insurance policy like if you you know

the storm comes you collect 10 million

for your two million dollar home you

can't even do that today but let's

assume you can but if if the insurance

plot if you knew that that there was a

storm coming insurance company was still

willing to sell you that homeowner's

policy of the same price as the redo

storm you should overinsure and so I

think our only mistake there if you

could have overinsured a bit more

because we we knew a storm was coming

you mentioned that face there and my

question to you is actually on a

persistent mind you said before in the

show with Shane again that you're one of

the most persistent people in America

and maybe your father might beat you to

that but you're one of the most

persistent people how do you know when

to change your mind and when you're

wrong

the answer is uh well certain a clue

would be if new facts emerge which are

inconsistent with the original thesis

then I think that's that's basically

what happened with us with Netflix

so does that happen often no fortunately

not I mean you know we are we get so

much if you will when we make a

mistake because they're always big right

we're concentrated we're managing 15

billion dollars we're putting 10 15 of

our capital on any one Investments so if

we lose you know 25

on something where we have a billion and

a half dollars it's you know it's a 400

odd million dollar loss

um that will make the headlines right so

we're going to get pummeled for it so

you know every article I read recently

about us is like some Investments we win

big some Investments we lose big the

reality is 90 of the Investments we've

made in the last 20 years have been

profitable in fact meaningfully

profitable we've had a handful okay big

blonders big headlines but they've been

a small fraction of of the uh well dot

otherwise we wouldn't

you know the compounding doesn't work if

you're if like on we make a ton on this

one we lose a ton of that one that but

the the headlines implied

like no one writes a story when we've

owned a stock you know we paid 12 for it

it's now 60. we've never sold it so

there's no visible gain or loss that's

restaurant Brands

um but no one writes a story that we've

made you know billions of dollars

investing in that company because

there's nothing exciting about it but if

we lose 400 million in three months on

Netflix it's Front Page News we'll say I

think whenever someone's exceptional

they'll always try and bringing you down

and another thing that you do one thing

though that was very apparent when I

tweeted about you coming on the show

bill I had some of the most powerful

people in finance privately message me

and say ask him why he's so public

and you said there about you know people

wanting to bring you down when there is

an occasional loss I would say that it's

because you are very public where maybe

there are others in your case who aren't

as public why do you choose to be so

public

so I would say originally it was a very

important part of the strategy you know

we were a tiny fund trying to influence

these really big companies

and we were using the power of

persuasion

uh to influence them and we couldn't

influence them with the fact that we

owned one percent of company ABC

but we could if we corralled the other

you know substantial majority of other

shareholders to our views and therefore

having the uh the platform if you will

uh or the mouthpiece was a how we

effectuated change so it was very

important powerful part of the strategy

and then I always had this kind of free

speech thing you know I'm not on a copy

a lawn or anything but big believer in

free speech and if I think about like

the most important drivers in my life

I would say Independence was always one

of the uh I did not like the fact that

my parents could control me and you know

that motivated me to have lots of summer

jobs so I had my own spending money and

that also motivated me to be you know

financially independent if property is

possible but one of the sad things about

our country right now is I think Free

Speech has been crushed to a great

extent other than if you were you know

if if you can say something if you could

express a political view and get fired

today which is definitely a very real

possibility

only if you were financially independent

or you know an entrepreneur of some kind

we've got enough money in the bank can

you take the risk of speaking freely so

I I take advantage of

the ability to speak freely and even

then it's danger you worry that because

even then it's dangerous you see people

like JK Rowling uh you know a

billionaire in her own rights who has

bricks thrown through her window for

free speech yeah it's that that's a bad

thing of speaking very freely this

weekend right on the whole dank thing I

found you know I've kind of in fact

become fascinated by Twitter in the last

I would say three years I really was not

active on Twitter before that and

periodically active and it's what I like

about it is it's a way to to have your

views heard and debated and you know I'm

you know very meaningful number of

people who matter in

Finance media you know Central Banking

whatever you know follow me and so you

know while Jay Powell probably wouldn't

take my call if I called him for give

him advice because last thing he wants

to do is talk to someone who's actively

buying and selling securities in a

Marketplace not that we are that active

buying and selling but yeah I think he

would certainly think of me as I'm like

I can share my view with Jay Powell

directly I'm quite sure he actually

follows me you know not under the name

Jay Powell for sure

it's my point is it's an effective way

to reach the people that matter in DC

and otherwise uh about important policy

things and during the financial crisis I

did the same thing with the occasional

PowerPoint presentation or or segment on

CNBC uh but here I can you know from the

comfort of my couch okay you know share

a point if you've done something that I

think is important and I you know I was

you know woke up Saturday morning after

the events the week

pretty convinced that if the government

didn't at a minimum guarantee deposits

at Silicon Valley Bank would have a

massive run at pretty much every

Regional Bank on Monday and my advice

was we need to guarantee all deposits

not just

those and I think unfortunately Iran is

continuing I mean if you look at the the

deposit inflows uh at the big Banks if

you talk to anyone at JPMorgan who works

at opening accounts they're working

literally Round the Clock to take in all

the capital that's flowing in you know

that's not good for the uh for our our

banking system in our country and that

was what I was afraid of over the

weekend which is why I was so public if

you will as someone who's just opened a

JPM account and put all of my money

there I would certainly agree with you

it was not that easy to get time with

them actually to be fair

um we're going to get to that I I do try

to ask how much of your shorts on

Regional Banks were driven by Logic of

social media viral contagion versus like

fundamental analysis on the assets

themselves so be super super clear

we have never been short Regional Banks

we're never in Long Regional Banks and

we were starting to look at possible

investment opportunities and then I

decided on Saturday morning and I sent

an email to the team I said look we're

not going to invest in any of these

Banks because I want to be able to talk

about this publicly without being

accused of talking my book right and the

unfortunate thing is if you go on

Twitter

you know or however many people say oh

he's doing this because he's long this

he's short this we haven't we have no

exposure certainly no direct exposure

the but I said well we have one big

conflict which is we're very long you

know America right if the the financial

system blows up that's bad for markets

it's bad for the economy that's bad for

Real Estate that's bad for you know all

kinds of things we're exposed to so my

conflict if you will is I'm I'm long

we're long America or American

businesses but I didn't want to be

conflicted in terms of being short these

stocks or not so I have no clear to your

listeners oh exposure whatsoever to any

of these Banks or any of the big Banks

or any you know the only financial

institutions we own are uh Fanny May and

Freddie Mac would have gone for years

which are kind of if you will options on

a potential restructuring of those

institutions years from now bill then

you can help me if you're completely

unconflicted you came out saying that

was real asymmetry in Regional Banks

yeah my question was don't they have the

same risk if interest rates go up

further on the mark to market value of

their assets

so the Silicon Valley Bank was I was

just unique

in the disproportionate amount of

exposure they had to kind of long

duration fixed income assets versus

other Banks you know we've looked at

um First Republic Bank which you know

has been a on your performer if you will

but its balance sheet its loan portfolio

its business model looks very very

different from Silicon Valley Bank but

still getting shot if you will uh in in

the market and and that's because

um the government has still not given

people assurance that every deposit is

safe and my point is

you know I overarching point is we need

to

get everyone calm it's a bit like there

were runs on mutual funds I don't

remember during the financial crisis one

of the mutual funds broke the buck if

you will like a money market mutual fund

people were redeeming and they and they

couldn't give people the dollar par and

that was causing a run on every mutual

fund basically the treasury fed came in

and said look we're going to guarantee

principal at mutual funds which is a

pretty extraordinary thing to do but it

stopped people from withdrawing their

money you know so they could be

comfortable and then they put in new

regulations about what money market

mutual funds could hold so the same

problem would occur I think basically

the same thing has to happen with with

Bex first you have to get everyone calm

so first thing to do is guarantee

deposits okay on a temporary basis where

that temporary guarantee stays in place

until they update the FDIC insurance

program to have greater than 250 000

guarantees per account you know for

business accounts and people want to

keep those kind of balances uh in Banks

and then they develop update regime they

charge for this insurance and then they

can get rid of this temp temporary

guarantee at all banks but if they don't

do that my expectation is you know that

people are still going to be concerned

and people like yourself are going to

move from Silicon Valley Bank to to the

JP Maurice World Silicon Valley Bank not

the safest Bank to be at right now

actually the irony is and I you know

tweeted about this morning there's sort

of two banks that now have an explicit

guarantee regardless of how much money

you put in those Banks right that's

signature and Silicon Valley Bank they

have an explicit guaranteed U.S

government then there is JB Morgan

there's City there's B of A maybe Wells

Fargo if you will that are systemically

important institutions because they've

got whatever 250 billion plus more like

a trillion plus in in capital and those

have the implicit backing of the US

government because we said look we're

going to bail out those institutions if

we need to and we're going to monitor

them more carefully uh so those are

probably pretty safe too that's why

people putting their money there uh and

by the way they're they tend to be run

better and they're I would argue

probably over capitalize today were

certainly where they were before and

then there's the rest of the banks which

don't have which have 250 000 per

account

and so we've created this now three tier

uh guarantee system which is very

confusing to Consumers

and the people who've been arguing

that oh you know more Hazard capitalism

is over

um you know the problem with people

losing confidence in deposits is the

details get lost in the headlines right

once you hear you can lose money with a

deposit at a bank you know it affects

everyone and there were lines that

people are lining up to take money out

of their ATM machine or you know go into

the branch and get a get a check to move

their money someplace else I mean that's

this is not this is like embarrassing

videos on Twitter people outside certain

Banks and it was it was really unnerving

I've never seen this living in London

um what is banking look like in five

years time do we just see the

centralization of power to the four Key

Banks and the big four become more and

more powerful uh hopefully not and

there's very very there's a reason why a

lot of people bank with these sort of

small events and you know I'm in a bench

Capital fund and you know the uh GPS

asking my advice on what to do and he

opened an account at you know one of the

big Banks and he was saying they don't

know how to bank a venture fund you know

that makes a capital call and takes in

100 you know 100 wires and then you know

needs to uh send wires here and there

that just he found it very cumbersome

already so that's one important reason

why we need these other Banks you know

the service level can be a lot higher at

a smaller Bank

but I would say as if not more

importantly a lot of the construction

lending and real estate lending and

small business lending is done by these

smaller Banks you know the Big Money

Center banks are not good at real estate

lending they've kind of gotten out of

that business but you know commercial

real estate is a major part of our uh

economy and you have these big banks

that don't have a core competency in

making those kind of loans to developers

Etc and that will cause a meaningful

slowdown if these Banks lose all their

capital and deposits do you believe LPS

are wrong then in pressurizing managers

to move to the big four I'm obviously a

manager several hundred million dollars

under management I have all of the big

institutions who are saying Harry move

the to JPM today

so

the way you can manage this risk one

first of all I don't think you should

keep a few hundred million dollars

sitting in a bank account ever I don't

care what Beck it is

um you know the discipline we followed

from the beginning of time if you

remember I you know I we were betting

against the creditworthiness of AAA

rated institutions beginning in 2002

right so I've been bearish on the rating

agency's ability to assess credit Worthy

is for a long time so the approach we

take here is other than cash we need for

daily needs we keep that number pretty

small

um

everything else is in a U.S treasury

money market account or we own U.S

treasury bills directly so we're not

taking Bank risk we're we're just facing

the U.S Sovereign and then the cash we

keep on hand we do keep it at a JPMorgan

or at our Prime broker Goldman Sachs and

PBS and we monitor those institutions

kind of very carefully but actually

there's a case to be made for going back

to Silicon Valley bank now okay because

they're got a full faith and credit

guarantee on deposits and they're

actually trying to you know apparently

they're saying they're open for business

they're making loans they're doing

whatever

but it's it's a bit of a uh it's now a

quasi-governmental institution I mean I

think the right thing to do there is

just to recap that institution again we

need

we need a assist you know a system-wide

uh deposit guarantee and then we need

FDIC insurance

with appropriate premiums so that these

smaller Banks can can operate that

network of banks is important you know

for the farmer in Iowa as much as as it

is for the Venture capitalists in in the

Silicon Valley this kind of uh

wall-to-wall guarantees on deposits not

just allow for constraints to be removed

and bad performance and behavior to be

allowed so again we need a temporary

government guarantee because we don't

have a non-governmental Insurance system

to support it right the FDIC system is

not a government guarantee of deposits

it's well it's a government guarantee in

exchange for appropriate premiums right

the FDIC has 125 billion dollars of of

premiums it's collected sitting in an

account that's to be to backstop you

know Insurance on deposits it's a good

system the problem is that the the

amount of insurance available per

accounts is very small

right well small not small for your

average Americans checking account for

sure takes care of that but it doesn't

take care of any kind of decent sized

business that has to have money on hand

for payroll or working capital or

otherwise and you can't have you know

millions of small businesses trying to

assess the creditworthiness of banks on

a regular basis and by the way the

credit worthiness can change

dramatically you know Silicon Valley

Bank was a very solvent bank until rates

moved a lot in 12 months Bill if he was

sitting in charge of the FED what would

you do today I would call my colleagues

of the FDIC and the treasury I would say

let's put them let's put in place a

temporary let's announce the world a

temporary deposit guarantee all deposits

Let's Get Busy quickly to up to you know

great greater Insurance levels and let's

get that system announced at launch

quickly shouldn't take a lot of time

right we already have a regime for 250

000 deposits we just need to rate you

know increase the the amount of deposit

guarantees that are available we've got

to First stabilize the banking system

and the federal reserve's principal job

is you know Financial stability without

Financial stability we don't have any

kind of stability let alone you know US

dollar U.S interest rate disability so

once you go solve that problem now Mr

Powell is an upcoming meeting where he's

got to make a decision on interest rates

and each move of the lever if you will

or the crank each crank of the uh you

know cranking uh up rates uh you puts

pressure on the system and cracks a

Verge and we've seen more of that crack

we've seen glass breaking and so I think

he's got to be very very thoughtful

about whether we raise rates here

or whether we pause and so I think

there's a decent chance Powell says you

know we've we're not raising rates we

we're witnessing uh you know again if

they can stable like I haven't checked

the news for the last couple of hours

but if

even the form here's an unusual thing

Sheila bear is like it was an FDIC

sharer Bush Administration or what

actually a while ago

maybe even even Obama

um Republican uh you know she's in

effect criticizing the FDIC for not

having selective deposit guarantees

instead of putting in a temporary

guarantee redoing the system she's

making my argument in today's ft that we

need that to happen because if that

doesn't happen all these deposits drain

out of these Regional Banks they're

going to stop lending if they stop

lending the con the company is going to

come to a halt right it's going to slow

the economy very aggressively so I'd be

very wary about raising rates until

we've solved this Regional Bank problem

and it's not just Regional Banks it's

people are going to start thinking about

their small Community Banks and how

solvent they are there's a run we can't

have another bank closure we have one

more and it's like and you know it's

going to get messy what happens if

interest rates go to six percent equal

inflation why do we invest then I don't

think the FED has to raise rates that

much more you're at a level today where

certainly short rates are above

or just above uh kind of underlying

inflation so we're getting closer to the

financial policy slowing

uh slowing the economy my favorite

approach actually you know the big

problem we have is we've got in that

Palace focused on is I hate this call

even a problem is we have full

employment very full employment and we

have Rising wages so those are starting

to temper the best way to solve that a

problem is to open up immigration

right why why force people out of work

to slow the economy to get rid of

inflation why not increase the supply of

workers

so that

um you know we temper the increases of

wages

um I just think it's a better answer I

had Dar from Uber on the show the other

day and he said his biggest concern is

that actually the realization that Trump

might actually get back into Power

speaking of immigration

um do you think that's likely

um if it's Biden Trump I think I think

Trump wins but I think if it's Biden if

Biden runs again which sounds like it's

approaching a certainty

I think it's a very interesting

opportunity for someone who's not inside

the political system

to run for office on the Democratic side

my favorite version of events is is

Jamie Diamond actually believe it or not

a banker

um you know I I'd like a

globally recognized respected talented

business Builder that understands the

economy that understands geopolitics

that has

um relationships with Business Leaders

kind of globally I think that kind of

person uh it also has a you know a track

record for caring about broad ranges of

of

of our our citizens

I think that kind of person would make

for an excellent candidate so I'd love

for a we're not going to see someone

some Senator or Governor compete with

the Inc you know with President Biden

well I'd like a better version of trump

A Better Business leader to run for

office and uh and I think they can

absolutely get the Democratic nominee

and against Trump they'll get the

um you know the center and center right

part of the Republican party and we went

bill would you have to do politics

you're very outspoken people respect and

follow you would you ever go into

politics Someday I'm I'm open to it

someday when I when my day job gets

boring

I don't think my day job is going to get

boring I don't think he's gonna have

boring seeing Bill I'm going to be

honest

um listen I do want to move a little bit

more personally to you we've spoken

about you know some of the great

successes and also better challenges in

terms of money I I also laid on my

relationship to money it's a weird one

for me how do you analyze your

relationship to money today

I don't really think about it so you

don't like what do you mean what do you

mean by relationship like I used to

think it was everything and like when I

had 10 million I'd be happy or when I

had 20 I'd be happy or when I had

whatever it was that would be good

enough and then I would feel happy with

that and then I would be free I wouldn't

have to do any of this because I'd

have enough money to not worry and then

it didn't happen so I equated money to

self-worth money to power conversation

people listen to you because you have

money

do you see what I mean okay so what's

your question

how do you think about yours today do

you time money to to power to

freedom of speech to presence and Aura

sure so what I would say is getting back

to my free speech speech

I it is important to me

I like the fact that I don't have to

worry about keeping my job and I can say

what I think although my compliance

person every once in a while you know I

appreciate if you before you tweet

please quickly say something to me so so

compliance is a little restrain on Free

Speech but you know look I I feel

incredibly fortunate you know I was a my

ambition when I was 18 I was like okay

I'm gonna be really good at this

business thing I'm gonna make a pile of

money and I'm gonna reallocate the way I

think makes sense I've spent a fair bit

of time and I still I do uh on

philanthropic stuff but I learned it was

probably given away over 600 million

dollars in the last decade

and what I've learned from that is that

philanthropy is is often not the

solution to many problems and that

um you know business and for-profit

business models are much more effective

solutions to problems most problems and

so you know I I think I think you get

happiness I think I've learned this over

time happiness comes from helping other

people and I've spent my life a good

part of my life finding people spouses

and jobs and introducing people to each

other and what money has given me is the

ability to have you know sometimes

Global impact on on problems and you

know so I my day job of making hopefully

good Investments and compounding the the

assets are pretty Square for the benefit

of our kind of shareholders and

investors which you know hopefully

improves their lives and then you know

the profits that come from that uh you

know I certainly haven't more than

enough to live my daily life so I think

about how do I re-allocate those funds

Often by Investments whether it's

for-profit or non-profit Investments

that

um

my favorite Investments are ones that

are solve an important problem and

they're profitable you know the versions

were foundations actually made ventric

Apple Investments we made like 15x and

the guy came to see us was trying to

solve a societal problem in Mexico you

know uh things like this so

I would say I feel really fortunate

Independence again Big Driver uh and I

think Financial Resources give you

Independence

and I think if you have interesting

things to say and interesting ideas you

have a voice I don't know that it's

driven by just having to pile money Bill

I speak to many of our mutual friends

and they said what a wonderful marriage

that you have today I wanted to ask

what's been your biggest lessons on what

it takes to make a marriage work so well

teach me

sure so it starts with finding the right

person I would say that's that's about

98 it's

you can have you could you can choose

the wrong person and you can do all the

right things and it's not going to make

for a great marriage so I would say it's

it's a lot in the selection the mutual

selection that comes from finding out

the right person it's kind of come to

believe you know this all these Notions

of opposites attract

and I'm not a big believer in that

um you know Neri and I uh have a lot of

commonality on

you know everything from Drive ambition

what makes us happy you know values

thoughts on kids parents family what's

important in the world and physical

attractions obviously key

um you know so we're just like super

physically intellectually uh compatible

and and we're we're I mean we're if you

met her you would say okay she's very

different from you Bill but in very

fundamental ways we're pretty similar so

I think getting the match right is

really really important you know finding

a authentic super high quality high

integrity interesting attractive

uh person

um I think is is almost and then beyond

that it's making sure that your daily

life doesn't take over distract you so

much you don't have time for each other

you know and that's a risk when you have

two motivated people trying to

accomplish a lot and yours doesn't I

mean no offense it seems from the

outside that yours would do well no I

would say it's the biggest risk and so

we have to constantly make time for each

other

and find those quiet

do you do date night do you do Sunday

evening walks what's your thing so uh I

think date night is a really important

thing and we need a more official

implementation of it you know we we got

married and then we had kovid and kovid

is pretty amazing for marriage like we

lived in the same house she worked

upstairs in office I worked down and

that's for lunch we play with the baby

uh and at night we would go on these

four or five mile walks down the beach

uh even in the winter into a flashlight

it was a really cool

you know way to kind of get through

covet and and uh hopefully this summer

we'll go back to that we we've not been

doing that in the city so I missed those

kind of late night uh late night walks

and there was not much socialization

which is

good and that if you spend an enormous

time with each other but when you get

back to you know City Life and

you know you you get you want to be

supportive of the people and you want to

see friends and everything else I think

it's it's a massive time management

problem and so you know Nary is building

a yeah she should be quite an

interesting person for you to talk to

she's building an incredible company

hired I would say you know maybe 17 or

18 you know brilliant scientists uh

Engineers roboticists biologists

um and I think we should do like an

All-Star Mr and Mrs I think that'd be a

really fun style to show but she's you

know that's a pretty involved thing and

we've got you know an almost

four-year-old child who means everything

to to of course both of us but it's an

area's only child it's one so it yeah

it's tough but

um you just have to find time you can't

how do you hook up your life yeah

can I be a really tough one how do you

bring up children in a world of you know

Financial privilege but also teach them

to have the same Drive hunger ambition

that one would want any child to have

growing up

I think it's a very good question I

don't know the precise answer

um you know a lot of people would say I

grew up in a very privileged uh

background you know closer relative but

I grew up in a town called chapqua

um we had a very good school system

um you know my dad was a successful

mortgage broker you know uh we went on

nice vacations

a nice house uh I don't know that it

matters so much whether you live in a

300 000 house or a two million dollar

house or 20 million dollar house or

whether your parents drive a Toyota

you know I think that the major

differences are you have access to a

good education you have food on the

table uh do you have Financial Security

um I don't I don't know that it has to

matter I what's interesting is I

remember kind of growing up and I felt

very uh

you know sort of fortunate with my

upbringing my parents told me they would

be paying for my college education but

no more for my my dad's always sort of

told me and then we had actually some

relatives who or you know people close

to the family who had a lot less than we

did and their kids were horribly spoiled

and I really think it's just the way the

parents you know uh

raise the children

um so I think it's it's all on the

parents and kind of the the uh the

lessons they teach

about money you know I never got an

allowance I had to work you know I had I

had uh

if I wanted to have money to buy a Sony

Walkman you know I had I wax cars and

that's what I did no I I my dad said you

want to make some money okay dig that

ditch my first job I got paid

per hour and so this is kind of dumb

next time I said okay how much do you

want for me to dig a ditch I'll do it

it's probably practicable but I don't

want to get paid by the hour so you

learn some pretty

interesting lessons about about money

but I would say it's it's in the parents

if the parents are kind of spoiled and

wasteful and obnoxious the kids will be

too Sony Walkman I remember getting a

jog proof one the height of luxury

um uh listen we're gonna do a quick fire

around so I say a short statement you

give me your immediate thoughts does

that sound okay sure

so what's the trend that most investors

are not seeing or ignoring that there

will be persistent it's not a one-word

answer but

um the world is a structurally different

place than it was uh for the last 20 odd

years and you're going to see persistent

levels of inflation you know three to

four percent inflation for the

foreseeable future

make that that's certainly being missed

based on the pricing of long-term bonds

you can buy this you can buy it you can

get it only about a 3.6 yield I haven't

checked my screens if probably so

volatile I don't know what it is today a

3.6 yield for committing to the

government you know the government's

only gonna it's gonna give our money

governments borrow money for 30 years at

3.6 that can't make sense in a world

where inflation's three and a half

percent what's the hardest element of

your role today Bill time management

what business models do not work in a

zero interest rate world everything

works in a different world

okay who do you look up to who do you

admire Manny look up to you uh you know

in my industry I've been a Warren

Buffett fan from the beginning there's a

guy who likes to remain private but I'll

mention his name to Joe Steinberg who uh

his chair Jeffries but built a company

called Leucadia who's had a lot of

influence over me and over my career uh

I have a lot of admiration for my

parents you know my father was a very

important

uh Mentor uh it's someone I learned a

lot from and and not always because he

did the right thing sometimes he made

mistakes and I I was actually you know

it's a big moment when you realize that

uh that Dad can make a mistake too and

uh my mom was the real activist in the

family actually she she ran a campaign

collected signatures and ultimately

convinced uh

the governor to give hundreds of

millions of dollars to uh to redo the

rail system to our hometown so I learned

activism from Ma those are I would say

those are a bunch of uh key people I've

looked up to over time what's your

favorite 10-year long if I can own a

business for a decade you're saying yeah

well I would say of the businesses we I

would say

in an uncertain world you got to own

Universal Music

your original music group because the

one thing I'm confident about is more

people will have music subscriptions or

be streaming music from whatever device

and lots of different devices different

use cases uh on a global basis a decade

from now and I think that's a certainty

um and it's a very Capital light

uh business and so I think that's a good

place to put money for a decade what's

your favorite 10-year short

Bellum

ah

what's the name of that company

probably should mention the name of the

company

buff forgetting the name so I'm saving

them

I probably don't want it out at public

company but there are businesses that

are guaranteed to be disrupted by

blockchain

and that are old-fashioned old mold if

you know businesses that everyone hates

because they're monopolists and you can

disrupt them with with blockchain

technology so I would be sure those

companies what was the biggest takeaway

this one's from Jackie Reese's she said

what was the biggest takeaway from this

back that didn't happen I would say I

was very surprised so we did a

transaction

with probably the best company that

about any of them that murdered this

back uh Universal Music

he was a super predictable high quality

business we'd buy at a very attractive

valuation we gave up our warrants which

were the only

uh sponsor economics we received do the

transaction we committed a billion 600

million dollars alongside

the public shareholders and the

transaction had some complexity

because we had to accommodate you know

tax and other issues of of the

counterparty who was who is selling

their their interest in the company

and despite it being great for the

shareholders despite our having exactly

the same alignment with other shows

every other spec that was founder stock

and all kinds of other instruments the

SEC turned down the transaction for

highly technical reasons which

substantively should be precise of the

kind of transaction they're going to

approve and I think I guess the takeaway

from that is sometimes

you know a lot government Regulators

focus on the technical details as

opposed to high level principles and I

think they could you look at Silicon

Valley bank just to close the circle

right they made one of the most basic

mistakes a bank could make right we had

something called the SNL crisis in the

80s

right why because Banks had a bunch of

fixed rate mortgages and uh they had

floating rate liabilities and rates went

up and a whole bunch of banks became

insolvent and so since that time banks

have learned to kind of have match

funding right have floating rate that

flow rate liabilities so they should

have either floating rate assets or they

should hedge their fixed rate assets for

floating rate assets where they should

sell their floating rate assets as they

create them and here you had a bank that

violated all the basic rules and they're

regulated by however many different

control of the currency FDIC make your

list of government regulators and this

is like one of the simplest high level

things that you should check about a

bank and and somehow that was ignored by

by The Regulators and they had to be

focused on a bunch of technical stuff so

I think I think the long answer the

story is if we had principle-based

regulation where people focused on the

big picture

um will be way more efficient and I

think we'd have way fewer bad accidents

penultimate one I'm worried about wealth

terrorism we hear about like climate

terrorism you know the climate

terrorists I'm worried that actually you

know people will start shooting down

private jets style and like the

inequality of wealth will be violent do

you share that concern

so I think wealth inequality is a big

problem I think there are ways to

address it and I think the key is it's a

bit the knowledge I would make

is one of the things the US has done

very very well is promote home ownership

in fact they did a little too well going

into the crisis but in general it's been

a good thing and our system of 30-year

fixed rate mortgages has enabled

homeownership for for a lot of people

and that's also created a lot of a lot

of wealth and the uh sort of the middle

classes and homeowners you know up

through the financial crisis while their

wages weren't keeping Pace

uh you know it's with uh upper income

strata they were making a lot of money

in their homes and then the financial

crisis and over leveraging wiped out

people's uh sort of home equity and I

sort of view that as kind of the fulcrum

moment when the wealth inequality issues

really started to build

um and I think the key is

people need to own a piece and by the

way that well that that started to

rebuild in the last you know since the

financial crisis a lot of people bought

homes recapitalized and they built

wealth

uh in their homes but the piece that a

lot of people are missing out on

is they're missing out on participating

in the growth you know it's the Tom

pickety thing which is that you know

wages have not compounded at the same

rate as assets you know asset

compounding is has vastly so if you're

someone who has assets that you you can

you have beyond what you need for your

daily needs and you can invest Capital

you can build wealth we need to give

that to every American and you know

compounding this very powerful thing so

my in the New York Times uh did a piece

on like favorite ideas to help solve

problems my idea was you give every baby

that's born in America you know whatever

like a seven thousand dollar account I

just sort of making up a number 6 500.

uh when they're born and they can't

remove money from that account and it's

tax exempt and it compounds and it gets

invested in like an index fund it earns

you know historic rates of returns in

markets by the time you're 65 it's it's

a million dollars but it gives someone a

minimum stake in the success of the

country of capitalism it makes them a an

owner right by the way that would cost

20 billion a year to do that I was I

think the math that we which is seems

like a tiny little number today just

take the number of babies times whatever

seven or eight thousand dollars it's

like a nothing thing but I think would

it would start to give everyone in this

country uh a piece of the success of the

country so I think we need these sort of

savings accounts uh and we can't wait

until people start creating an IRA when

they're or 401K by the time they're

you know 25 or 30 or 35 you want to

start when they're a baby just because

the laws are compounding that extra 25

years is is very very material so I

think that's a key

a key device to help address uh the

problem and I think we need smart tax

policy

um and there are lots of things we can

do uh what is small tax policy bill so

there are a lot of things that make no

sense to me so for example if you own

real estate or certain other kinds of

assets you can do what are called like

kind exchanges where you can sell and

sell an asset I.E or I mean and you pay

taxes or you can exchange it for another

asset right and you don't pay any taxes

it's a total joke it's like a gimmick

it's a complete giveaway to people in

real estate there's so many uh if you're

dedicated real estate investor you can

pass through like Mr Trump president

Trump you can pass through the

depreciation on those real estate assets

and offset your other income which is

why Donald Trump didn't pay taxes pretty

much his entire life for things like

that that are easily fixable here's

another one so if you're Elon Musk right

um I'm not a believer in wealth taxes

but if you're borrowing five billion

dollars against your Tesla stock

and you've borrowed more than your basis

in the Tesla stock I think the

distribution from that kind of borrowing

should be taxable because it's really

tantamount to a sale you're getting back

more than the money that you invested

that should be when you refinance a

piece of real estate commercial real

estate if you don't buy apartment

complex for 100 million and it goes in

value to 200 million and you refinance

the mortgage and you take out 50 million

of proceeds I think those proceeds and

excess

uh you know that should be treated as a

taxable

um this is highly logical and very much

in Vogue of kind of leftist regimes

which are empowered why do they not do

it I don't these are by the way I think

these I think the Elon musks of the

world uh he you know I think would

support this kind of tax it makes sense

the problem with the wealth tax if

you've got a you know the Biden wealth

tax which is like 25 of the appreciation

of things that you own privately it's

going to bankrupt every startup no one

will ever start a business in America

anymore right because you no one will be

able to what do you do you sell as the

you know God forbid someone puts money

in your company at a billion dollar

valuation all of a sudden you owe you

know if you own half the company you

have a hundred million dollars in taxes

that year you know those kinds of taxes

I think are

um you know just destructive you don't

want to you don't have a tax policy that

destroys the economy right you want to

have a tax policy that makes sense but

there's certain things that are just

wrong and unfair and they just persist

like by the way carried interest which

I've said my piece on for a long time

um you know it's certain giving someone

a disproportionate share of gain is a

very a powerful thing to drive economic

behavior but I think differently about

the real estate entrepreneur the oil and

gas entrepreneur you know building a

business then us folks in the asset

management industry I don't think we

need that extra tax advantage I carried

interest when you're managing assets

um to motivate our economics uh Behavior

are you scared of anything you see in

the economy today am I scared of

anything you see in the economy today

sure I mean I don't use the word scared

but I would say there are many reasons

to be have concern right we've got we've

got the North Korean situation we have

Ukraine Russia we have uh China

brokering a Saudi uh Iranian uh

reproachment and now China's becoming uh

that stuff the United States used to do

right we have Russia crashing um you

know their planes into our drones

um we have China with its eyes on uh

Taiwan we have

the United States draining its strategic

petroleum reserve and

um draining its weapon resources when

it's doing the right thing in supporting

Ukraine but it should be giving you know

our defense department should be giving

orders to all of our defense companies

to rebuild our weapon stocks so that

we're not uh out of inventory in in a

highly uncertain world we have you know

chairman Powell Mr Powell has got one of

the tough his job has become a lot more

complicated in the last four days right

he's got a we have real serious

inflation in our country and we have you

know Financial instability and he's got

to work with his colleagues at Treasury

and the FDIC that stabilized utilize the

banking system and I have a really

simple solution I violated that a bunch

of times and uh hopefully my laying it

out won't discourage them from doing it

but we you know we've got a lot of and

then we have you know the political

division of this and then and then

social media companies that uh

can generate more attention by driving

us to the left and to the right right so

these are so what we need is we need a a

Facebook

that uh motivates us to love each other

instead of hate each other that would be

a good someone should build that company

I've invested in it it's no Wonderland

is it one of your losers or winners we

don't know yet

we then the joy of being a precedent

Master my friend

um is America stronger or weaker in 10

years time

I have to say stronger because I'm an

optimist you know everything bad

good will come from it uh good will come

from this war with Russia for sure it's

already some good has come uh good will

come from the wake-up call we've had

with Silicon Valley Bank

um and uh

hopefully someone's motivated to run

against

uh Biden and Trump that's uh

we need some more white swans we've had

too many black swans and I know or a

good Black Swan would be we resolved

Ukraine Russia in some form

Russia just backs off or there is a

peace resolution there

uh and we elect an outstanding leader

that there's

common appreciation for that that kind

of brings us together I'd love to see

that happen final one though we do this

again in 2028 did five years time was

Bill run uh hopefully a better more

improved version who's learned from his

whatever mistakes I made in the previous

five years has been in politics then

who knows where the world takes us I

have no idea

listen I've loved doing this thank you

so much for putting up with my Prime

questions you've been amazing and they

really appreciate it