Bitcoin in 2026: Down First, Then Up? James Check Explains

If I was to give people a theme for 2026, my current thinking is down to go up.

That's my current base case. As we

approach the end of the year, you are probably feeling a bit confused. Has the

Bitcoin bull market ended? Was 2025 even a bull market for Bitcoin in the first place? And if not, then should we expect

place? And if not, then should we expect a bare market in 2026? The problem is that many of the narratives on social media out there are actually misleading.

You hear this narrative all the time.

Sailor is like he's captured the market or the ETFs at Wall Street have captured Bitcoin. The numbers just do not suggest

Bitcoin. The numbers just do not suggest that that is even remotely close to the truth.

>> To understand the current state of the Bitcoin market beyond the narratives, we need to look at the onchain data. And

there's no better person to do that than Bitcoin analyst James Czech. Before we

get into the interview, a quick reminder. This discussion is just for

reminder. This discussion is just for educational purposes and does not represent financial advice. I'm Javanni.

Let's get into it.

The last time I had you on was back in the back in the end of April and you told me back then that according to you we were uh a little bit in between a

bare and a bull market. Uh I think that the price was pretty much the same as the one we have today. Okay. So, we are hovering around 90,000 now. Back then, I believe was like 94 or something. So,

not not much has changed in terms of price, but I'm sure that behind the curtains a lot has changed. So, can you tell me whether you still back you you

would still answer the same way to that question right now?

>> Yeah, honestly, probably. Yes. I think

that's probably the right way to think about it. So, if you go back to April,

about it. So, if you go back to April, we were coming out of the back end of the tariff tantrum. we sold off down to I think we hit 74. Um, and the general

view back then is it's more likely to be a bull market bounce. Uh, and what I did write for my subscribers at the time, I said, look, the consolidation we had in

2024, there was people calling that a bare market as well. And my view was I'm like 95 99% sure that this is probably going to bounce higher. Fast forward to where we are now. And in fact, if you just wind back the clock a month, uh

coming into like November, just before we had this sell-off, leverage was at all-time high. Futures hit something

all-time high. Futures hit something like $ 108 billion in total for Bitcoin.

Options blew through the roof. They were

actually bigger than futures and still are. Um especially with IBIT coming

are. Um especially with IBIT coming live. And what has really changed

live. And what has really changed between now and then is back then I can't remember what the number would have been but let's say something like 30 or 40% of the overall wealth invested

in Bitcoin from an onchain perspective had a cost basis above 90k. Now that

number is 70%. So 70% of the dollars that have flowed into Bitcoin have a cost basis above 90k. It's a

tremendously large number and that puts a lot of people underwater. So, uh, over the course of the last, let's say, 2 months since October, uh, I've been describing that supply and saying, look,

we're at 115, 105, 110, and I was saying, look, we do not really want to go down to 95. 95 is a really key level cuz then you just put the super majority of people underwater. And as we slowly

crack down below 115, which is the short-term cost basis at the time, then we got to 110. And I said, "Look guys, the trip from 110 to 100 and then from 100 to 95, it's not a long way, but the

delta and how many people suddenly go underwater will be a bit concerning."

And my view was if we go to 95, technically it's if we break 95, but if we went to 95, I'm like, "Guys, we're probably we're probably on the tail end of this thing." Uh, then the trip was going to go straight down to 80. 80 was

the next level that I could see. Um,

there's a a long-term onchain model called the true market mean. It's the

middle of the Bitcoin price statistically speaking and that's we're sitting there at 82K and I was like look we probably head down to 82 which is more or less what we've played out. So

now we're on the back end. So if you think about my odds in 2024 I was like look there's probably 99% chance we're going to bounce higher in in April May I was like uh probably like something like

70% chance. Now it's a lot more in

70% chance. Now it's a lot more in question because we haven't seen that burst of demand come back in. It's kind

of appears like we're forming a bit of a bare flag at this point in time. So, my

current like summary view, I've told my subscribers, put a bare market lens on.

However, I do not think this bare market is going to look like previous bears.

That is the we're kind of in this middle ground where I don't think this bear is going to be as extreme, as nasty to the downside. Uh I don't think a lot of the

downside. Uh I don't think a lot of the characteristics there, but the investor mindset I think has switched from bull to be bare. um getting back above 95 convincingly would start to change my

view there. But as it stands right now,

view there. But as it stands right now, I think the bare market mindset is still in play and we will have to see what the next couple of weeks and months play out. Do investors really start to panic

out. Do investors really start to panic uh or do we actually have a lot of hardcore holders that are willing to sit tight and and weather the storm? I was

looking at some of your latest interviews and you were saying that a lot of the narratives out there on X do

not reflect in the uh onchain data. So

uh what are people over there on X not getting right according to you at the moment?

>> Yeah, I mean honestly I think probably the biggest topic that people have got completely wrong this cycle has been assuming that no one sells. Honestly,

the amount of people who just do not believe that people sell Bitcoin is astoundingly large. Uh there's a

astoundingly large. Uh there's a narrative that's been there for the longest time saying that miners are the only ones that sell. Why would anybody sell their Bitcoin? It's the best asset of all time. And all those things are true. Miners do sell. It is the best

true. Miners do sell. It is the best asset in my view. But what a lot of people missed and I was covering this in extra I mean I got bored of saying it because it was so uh consistent. The

amount of sellside we've seen from long-term holders this cycle is tremendous. It's massive. So over the

tremendous. It's massive. So over the course of let's say from July onwards particularly we started seeing just like well and truly above normal sellside from longerterm hands. 5-year-old coins,

three-y old coins, one-year-old coins, sixy old co uh six-month old coins, all of them. They were coming back to

of them. They were coming back to market, but they were coming back in an accelerated pace. So I I've been talking

accelerated pace. So I I've been talking about this like long-term hold to sell side. People like to debate me and say,

side. People like to debate me and say, "Oh, six months isn't a long-term holder." It really doesn't matter. Six

holder." It really doesn't matter. Six

months is long enough for somebody to have put opportunity costs. They're not

invested in in Nvidia. They're not

invested in gold. They're not invested in silver. They're invested in Bitcoin.

in silver. They're invested in Bitcoin.

And Bitcoin went sideways. So, there is an opportunity cost baked into holding an asset for a meaningful period of time. And a lot of those guys are

time. And a lot of those guys are momentum traders, right? They've come

in, they're looking for a swing, Bitcoin went sideways, they started to exit. We

saw long-term holders, 5-year-old coins, three-year-old coins, multi like we saw one dude with 80,000 Bitcoin from 2011.

lots of old money started coming back to market and only when we got down to like 90k did people start going oh wow there's a lot of sellside going on and suddenly that narrative started to actually catch on and as a result we

just had this massive what I call a topheavy market too many people bought too many coins at too high of a price and then when you get the sell off everyone's confidence just gets

shattered so that was really like of all the narratives I think people chose not to believe that was the one that I think is the by far and away the most relevant Now uh on a positive note that sellside

is subsiding very very quickly right now. Um really in the last like 2 weeks

now. Um really in the last like 2 weeks it's coming off a cliff. So that also means that like if you've been holding coins for a long time, you kind of missed 120, you missed 110, you missed

100, and here you are down at 90 and a lot of these guys are going, "All right, I may as well now huddle." So, we're moving back into that environment, but it's still going to take time for all the coins that got sold to find a a

hodler who's really just going to take them off the market. So, that's why I think there there's a time component that's going to it'll take time to belt out a bottom and actually hammer out some kind of a flaw, which is why I think a bare market mindset makes sense

for now. We didn't see a massive crash

for now. We didn't see a massive crash in prices as uh we would have we would have expected looking at those uh

selling pressures and an explanation for that uh according to many analysts is that we had the buying pressure from

ETFs from uh uh treasury companies that have been sort of compensating that selling pressure and uh essentially

absorbing that selling pressure. Then in

the autumn, according to some analysts I talked to, the uh buying pressure from ETFs from uh treasury companies has also slowed down. Do you agree with this

slowed down. Do you agree with this reading or there is something not correct in your view?

>> Yeah. So I think uh if there's one big takeaway, when you've got one sold Bitcoin, you've also got one bought Bitcoin, right? They're they're matched.

Bitcoin, right? They're they're matched.

So the tremendous amount of sellside truthfully I think that the narrative that it's amazing we didn't go lower.

I've been saying that for a long time.

Truthfully that's I mean if you look at what 2025 is we were talking in April we're at the same price. If you really look at 2025 it's one big sideways grind right it's got a big trade range 74 but

really it's like 85 to 120. That's the

trade range but we've been going sideways. This whole thing is one big

sideways. This whole thing is one big sideways event. Now the amount of

sideways event. Now the amount of sellside event that we've seen in 2025, if you just take 2025, whether in BTC terms or USD terms, this would have

killed every previous bull market five times over. The amount of sellside has

times over. The amount of sellside has been so large, which also means the amount of buy side has been tremendously big. Now, the one area where I'd

big. Now, the one area where I'd probably add some color to that, the ETFs definitely have been a big buyer.

Um, treasury companies have been really it's strategy and then there's everything else. So, strategy has been a

everything else. So, strategy has been a big buyer. Uh but the rest of the

big buyer. Uh but the rest of the treasury companies have not been anywhere near as big as the narrative has said. Um they've certainly been

has said. Um they've certainly been buying, but when a lot of these like the biggest treasury companies, a lot of them is like 21 Capital is a good example. They haven't really bought

example. They haven't really bought anything. Tether's just moved 40,000

anything. Tether's just moved 40,000 Bitcoin that they already bought over to their right pocket, left pocket to right pocket. So there's a bunch of those

pocket. So there's a bunch of those types of things where the buy side has been rarely limited from the rest of the treasury companies set. But even if you take ETFs and treasury companies, glue

them together, you're still only talking about like 30% at most of the sell side that we've seen. So that other 70%, that's the part that I find really interesting because that's in the spot market. Some of that's going to be

market. Some of that's going to be hodlers, some of that's going to be like funds and firms that can actually buy spot. But also it like the scale of the

spot. But also it like the scale of the selling and the fact we haven't gone lower tells me that there is some other entities out there who are willing to buy spot and they're big that we're

talking hundreds of billions of dollars worth of coin. So like the ETFs and the treasury companies are a important part of the market but they are not the majority and my interesting question is

what is that majority that 70% because it's there's no way it's retail hodlers with their pocket money. The numbers are just too big. So that to me is an unanswered question, but I think it's very very interesting to think about who that might be. Could be sovereigns,

could be could be banks, who knows what it is, but it's spock. So that's another thing I would probably put to bed when you look at you hear this narrative all the time. Sailor is like he's captured

the time. Sailor is like he's captured the market or the ETFs at Wall Street have captured Bitcoin. The numbers just do not suggest that that is even remotely close to the truth. There's

just too much other stuff going on that is bigger than both of those entities.

So that's the thing I think is the most interesting. People are focusing on the

interesting. People are focusing on the na the named entities. And this is a very common thing that people do whenever they see the market do something. They want to go and blame a

something. They want to go and blame a boogeyman. They want to go and blame

boogeyman. They want to go and blame sailor. They want to go and blame a

sailor. They want to go and blame a whale. They want to go and blame a

whale. They want to go and blame a manipulator. They look for like an

manipulator. They look for like an entity that they can blame for or or account for what's going on. But in

reality, it's just the market being the market. It's just the market doing

market. It's just the market doing stuff. Coins are changing hands all the

stuff. Coins are changing hands all the time. And I think what a lot of people

time. And I think what a lot of people miss in this story, which is very bullish by the way, is just how big Bitcoin is. It can absorb billions of

Bitcoin is. It can absorb billions of dollars in buy side and sell side every day without moving the market. It is now a big boy. And if you're a big capital allocator, if you want to go and buy a

billion dollars worth of Bitcoin, you're like a pension fund or something. You

can't buy a billion dollars worth if you can't hedge a billion dollars worth of risk in options markets or if you don't if you buy a billion dollars and you send the price up 600x you know you

can't you literally can't buy it's not big enough as Bitcoin gets large bigger pools of capital can now comfortably allocate 10 million 50 million 100 million billion and not be concerned that they won't be able to sell and get

out the other side. So that confidence and the liquidity profile is actually a tremendous upsell. It actually makes

tremendous upsell. It actually makes Bitcoin more useful as an asset and as a money.

>> What exactly do you mean when you talk about sovereign buying Bitcoin?

>> It could be some of the the Gulf countries. We've seen a lot of those um

countries. We've seen a lot of those um uh entities signaling that there's actually a My view is that for Bitcoin, there's two different nation state types where it makes the most sense to have a

reserve. There's the big ones, China and

reserve. There's the big ones, China and the US, Russia. They're like the big countries that have a global power type structure where having a reserve makes a

lot of sense. The other side of the equation is the very small ones, right?

The ones that have not like they've got something that they want to hang on to.

Very small nation state.

>> You mentioned in one of your latest interviews that according to you the floor for the price at the moment is around is in a sort of air gap in

between 70 and 80. Do you stand by that statement and uh and why?

>> Yeah, that's my current base case thinking. So, as I mentioned before,

thinking. So, as I mentioned before, that true market mean level, that's the middle of Bitcoin, it's the average cost basis for everyone on chain for active investors. Um, also the ETFs, the ETFs

investors. Um, also the ETFs, the ETFs also have a cost basis of 82K. So, where

we are more or less right now, it's the middle. This is what I would consider to

middle. This is what I would consider to be like um I think that right now at 8090 is what I would consider to be like fair value. There's no froth. We're not

fair value. There's no froth. We're not

overheated. We're not underheated. We're

right in the middle. This is the center for Bitcoin. Now, to the downside, as

for Bitcoin. Now, to the downside, as you go below that, if you put the average investor underwater, you put the average ETF investor underwater, 60% of all flows, if you price ETF inflows

based on when they went in, they're 60% of them are currently underwater. So,

you've got a really large section of them, more than half, significantly more than half of the market is currently underwater. So then you go, well, what

underwater. So then you go, well, what are investors doing given the fact that they're at their like break even price, which no one likes to be. No one likes to be at their break even price. And

what happens if we go below that? You

start entering capitulation type territory where people go, "Oh man, I got to I'm done. I'm I'm throwing in the towel. Stuff this Bitcoin thing. I'm

towel. Stuff this Bitcoin thing. I'm

out." Now, you would think given that the average ETF investor is actually underwater or very close to their cost basis, you would think there would be significant outflows, but we've only

seen the total AUM uh in Bitcoin terms decline by like 3 4%. Which is very small, honestly. Um, if you look at

small, honestly. Um, if you look at total inflows, how much has come out, that four and a half billion I mentioned before, it's about 8%. So like if you're talking about 8% of the flows coming

out, 4% of the AUM, that to me doesn't scream Bitcoin's dead, sell everything, get out. Right? So my my current

get out. Right? So my my current thinking is there is, as you mentioned, there is an air gap um down to about 70K. When I say air gap, basically

70K. When I say air gap, basically there's very few coins that have changed hands. We don't know what the demand

hands. We don't know what the demand picture is because in November this year, last year, sorry, we shot straight through it. We just went from 75K all

through it. We just went from 75K all the way up to to 90. just was a vertical candle. We only really tagged it very

candle. We only really tagged it very briefly in April, right? It was a very short sell off down to 75 and then off we go again. So, we haven't really had that much demand come in. And then the

2024 zone between 75 and 50. Huge amount

of buying. Huge amount of buying occurred there. So, my base case for now

occurred there. So, my base case for now is I believe that 2024 zone between like 70 and 60 is going to be a tremendous amount of support. I think a lot of people are going to step in and buy there. I'm certainly I mean I'm not even

there. I'm certainly I mean I'm not even waiting necessarily for it to go down there, but it's it's part of my mental model to expect it. Uh so my base case is we probably form a flaw somewhere

below 80. Um I don't know if the low is

below 80. Um I don't know if the low is in yet. I would you know what? Honestly,

in yet. I would you know what? Honestly,

I'd actually like to see the price go lower because you need prices to go lower sometimes to shake out all the weak-handed bulls, form a true capitulation candle, which I don't think

we've had yet, but also get the bears super bold. You actually want bears to

super bold. You actually want bears to think that this thing is going to zero and they all jump in late stage in the trend. Like the right time to have gone

trend. Like the right time to have gone short was 110K. The wrong time to go short is when it breaks below 80 because people are going to expect it to just keep going and I think a lot of people are going to pile in with a very very

negative bet and you generally get a short squeeze that comes off the back of that. So, um that's what I'm looking

that. So, um that's what I'm looking for. I actually want the price to go

for. I actually want the price to go lower. I think the price going lower

lower. I think the price going lower right now is more bullish than it grinding higher. Grinding higher is

grinding higher. Grinding higher is generally not a good sign. Um you

actually do want down to go up. It's a

it's a counterintuitive concept but it's it's very very common in markets >> when it comes to the year we are we are entering 2026 what would be your base case in one year from now for example

>> yeah so um and again no one can predict the future but my my current think is I believe Bitcoin's undervalued already um at these prices right that doesn't mean it can't go lower but I think that that just makes it even more undervalued um a

lot of this is going to get driven by the macro economy uh there's a few things that I think are important to just keep in mind um one I think let's talk about the positive things, then we'll talk about the negative things. On

the positive side of the equation, I think that the the central banking complex, I mean, Trump's going to be able to put in his own Fed chair, there's no chance they're going to be a hawk. They're going to be more doubbish.

hawk. They're going to be more doubbish.

Now, I also don't think that necessarily interest rates matter that much, but what does matter is balance sheet expansion. If they hit some kind of a

expansion. If they hit some kind of a point in time where they have to start expanding their balance sheet, injecting more liquidity, keeping things keeping the wheels on, which by the way, that is where this ends up. No matter what happens, they will have to go back to

putting liquidity into the system. But

my concern is there's a lot of things out there. If you look at the equity

out there. If you look at the equity market, it's very richly valued. I'm in

the camp where like even though AI is going to be transformative, I look at I go, I just don't know if this thing can just keep grinding high the way it is.

it to me it feels like the product just isn't quite there to justify the capex spend and bubbles can go on for much longer than you can stay solvent but I just look at that and go well if the AI

bubble cracks if you get any kind of crack it doesn't matter how big it is if you get any kind of crack in the AI bubble the equity market comes down the US is a hyper financialized economy when the stock market goes down the wealth

effect goes down when the wealth effect goes down people stop spending the top bracket of America is in terms of wealth are the primary ary consumers right now

they're like the top 10% of of wealth um is like 50% of consumption. So like if the equity market goes down, you are due a recession and the answer to that recession is going to be more liquidity

trying to keep this thing afloat. That

is going to be good for risk assets because it's just a basing of the currency. That's the end state. The

currency. That's the end state. The

scary and the challenging thing is I think something bad has to happen before they go reactionary mode. So there's a few elements here, right? There's the US election, there's the Fed swapping over,

you know, there's all sorts of things.

It's very very hard to estimate how this plays out. Um, but I'm certainly, if I

plays out. Um, but I'm certainly, if I was to give people a theme for 2026, my current thinking is down to go up.

That's my current base case. I think we get flushes to the downside. And I

think, why did I start buying Bitcoin?

Because I know they're going to debase the currency. What's going to cause them

the currency. What's going to cause them to debase the currency? Any kind of crack in the economy? What causes a crack in the economy? A sell-off. Give

me a sell off and then we're going to get just it's it's going to be ballistic. I also was looking to another

ballistic. I also was looking to another interview that you did recently and you were saying that uh your current portfolio consists in uh if I remember correctly 90% Bitcoin and 10% gold.

>> Yep.

>> Can you maybe explain the rationale behind that portfolio construction?

>> Yes. So the uh the gold bitcoin portfolio u yes I put a lot of thought behind it. Um the main reason is I view

behind it. Um the main reason is I view Bitcoin and gold as my savings account and uh they are my savings account because I prefer to save in harder assets knowing that they can't debase the two of them. Now I know that gold

although I had a view that at some point gold would outperform Bitcoin which is a non-conensus for you but they're they're the same trade the same trade which is I believe fiat currency is going to get

debased. I want to hold things I can't

debased. I want to hold things I can't to base that have a network effect and have a winner take all type structure.

So, my Bitcoin is there to run long term. You know, I'm I'm in my 30s. For

term. You know, I'm I'm in my 30s. For

me, long-term is the next 10 years, right? I want to put my kid through

right? I want to put my kid through school. I want to buy a house. I want

school. I want to buy a house. I want

to, you know, those types of dynamics.

The gold is there as a ballast for my portfolio. It's the same trade. I don't

portfolio. It's the same trade. I don't

have to overthink it. I don't have to understand any company's financials.

It's just gold. But the benefit is actually right now. Right now is the perfect example of why I own gold. I'm

in Australia and for folks who don't know, our housing market is just I mean most places are but our housing market is just completely out of control in terms of prices. Gold and Bitcoin are chasing it very well. Um I can buy more

house than I could in 2020 and 2021 and 2022 with both of those assets.

But what happens if Bitcoin is, I don't know, trading at 90K down 30% from the highs? I don't want to sell my Bitcoin

highs? I don't want to sell my Bitcoin right now. My gold is preserving its

right now. My gold is preserving its purchasing power. It's doing exactly

purchasing power. It's doing exactly what I need it to do by just slowly and surely going higher over time. So, what

happens if right now, like after this interview, I go out and I go looking for a house and I find the one that I want.

The gold is there to be sold so that I can get the deposit, buy the house. The

gold is there to be there when I need it and not be volatile. And then in the future, I can pay off the mortgage with the Bitcoin when it's gone and done its run and monetized to where we think it's all going. So really, it's two legs of

all going. So really, it's two legs of the same trade, but they serve a very, very different purpose. One is there to appreciate slowly, one is there to be volatile and appreciate massively over

the longer term, but I can wait. So the

gold gives me the capacity to wait for my Bitcoin to do its thing. That's

really how I think about it. Um, so

they're really two components of my savings account. Um, and honestly, it's

savings account. Um, and honestly, it's been fantastic because I now have the comfort right now that even though Bitcoin's low, if I find the house that I want, I do not have to sell any Bitcoin. I can actually use the gold for

Bitcoin. I can actually use the gold for its intended purpose.

>> For someone who um is, as you said, looking for holding the Bitcoin for for at least one decade from now or maybe

even like more. Um, one big issue stands on the horizon which is the quantum threat. So um of course this is

threat. So um of course this is something that is not quite there yet.

It's more it's some people say it's just fad. Uh but uh some very serious people

fad. Uh but uh some very serious people I talked to uh like cryptographers, people who are very familiar with the issue, they definitely say that this is something that Bitcoin needs to face. Uh

what is your view on that? Is is it something that concerns you? What do you think the Bitcoin community should do?

So, I do believe that quantum is a threat, but I'm not concerned. And what

I mean by that, I believe that the Bitcoin is smart enough and there are already proposals like BIP 360. And

again, it's this is early stuff in terms of where we are in the progress here, but I'm very confident that we're going to be able to solve these problems. Now, it is not going to be without logistical challenges. So, in the study that I ran

challenges. So, in the study that I ran really there's two primary buckets of vulnerable coins. pay to pub key which

vulnerable coins. pay to pub key which is the early Satoshi era. There's about

1.72 million Bitcoin there. Um and then there's a whole another bucket which is much larger where people are reusing addresses. So reusing addresses is not

addresses. So reusing addresses is not good. People should not do it because it

good. People should not do it because it makes your coins vulnerable. And when I say reusing addresses, if you spend from that address, you are revealing what's called a public key. That public key

will allow the attacker to find there's like a a private key for every address.

It's not your seed phrase. That's

different. Your seed phrase is going to be safe. But there, every single address

be safe. But there, every single address has its own private key. And if you spend from that address, that coin, if you put any more funds into that, once you've spent, those funds are now at

risk because the public key is being exposed. So, there's a bunch of

exposed. So, there's a bunch of challenges here. Um, it will take

challenges here. Um, it will take probably about a year for us to even just migrate everyone's coins over over to a postquantum safe address. For the

vast vast majority of people, if you're using modern wallet software, SegWit, if you're using any modern software in Bitcoin, you will almost always be safe because it doesn't reuse addresses. It

will automatically produce a new one for you. Um, so in that instance, that's all

you. Um, so in that instance, that's all going to be fine. The challenge is actually going to be with the user experience because a lot of people simply don't understand any of this

stuff. And exchanges in particular are

stuff. And exchanges in particular are the biggest source of reused addresses.

Binance's hot wallet is the same address that just keeps moving around, moving around, moving around. Those addresses

are vulnerable. Now, I am very confident that Binance and Coinbase and all these custodians, they will not they are very aware of this quantum thread. If you and I are talking about this, I assure you

their engineering teams have a plan in place. So I don't actually think that a

place. So I don't actually think that a lot of people will point to like these big honeypotss and they are a risk but the biggest challenge is going to be most people they have one address that they've given to Binance and Coinbase and they just withdraw to it all the

time right they don't actually understand that that is reusing an address so I think there's a customer experience challenge that the exchanges are going to have to deal with I think there's a cryptography challenge there's

a coordination challenge so it is a very very big and challenging problem but I also know that the Bitcoin industry is full of extremely smart people and we will work out the cryptography. We will

work out what the best trade-offs are.

We will do a very good job of communicating the it's going to be a process. It's not going to be easy. It

process. It's not going to be easy. It

is something we have to take serious. Um

it's probably, you know, people are saying on the order of about a decade out. So yes, it is a challenge and a

out. So yes, it is a challenge and a problem. No, I do not think we need to

problem. No, I do not think we need to be concerned, but I do think we need to take action. So that's how I would think

take action. So that's how I would think about it. Um, first and foremost for

about it. Um, first and foremost for anyone listening, if you're concerned about your coins, do not do anything without doing some research. We have

like a decade worth of time to think about this. The worst thing that people

about this. The worst thing that people can do is panic and think, "Oh no, Quantum's going to come and steal my coins." Almost certainly that's not

coins." Almost certainly that's not what's going to happen because the quantum computers that come out in the first place are almost certainly not going to be going after a thousand transaction or a $20 transaction.

They're going to be going after the biggest coins. And even so, it's

biggest coins. And even so, it's probably going to be Microsoft, IBM, Google, the US government, maybe the Chinese government. I don't think the

Chinese government. I don't think the entity who creates the quantum computer is going to be trying to steal someone's, you know, $150 withdrawal from Binance.

>> If uh suddenly we'll find out that we are not ready yet and the quantum technology is ready, I guess this this could have a massive impact on on the price of Bitcoin,

>> of course. Oh, no, no question. So uh

and this is going to be one of the big challenges that people face is people are going to be concerned about the price. For me I'm not concerned about

price. For me I'm not concerned about the price because if you're going to sell off because of quantum and I'm very like from my understanding I think the the probability that we can solve this is actually quite high this is not an

unsolvable problem. If people are going

unsolvable problem. If people are going to sell and panic and do you know if they're going to sell me their Bitcoin at a very very cheap price because they're afraid they haven't done the thinking so be it. In the short term, it

might go down, but in the long term, once this FUD is cleared, what FUD is left? There's nothing left. That is it.

left? There's nothing left. That is it.

That is the end of days. Even gold bugs are now out of ammunition. So, I'm going to buy as much as I possibly can given that scenario.

>> James, as always, it's so fascinating to talk to you and uh yeah, I hope to see you soon on our channel next year to see how the market will have evolved.

>> Thank you, mate. Have a merry Christmas and a good New Year.

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