Bitcoin: The Bear Market Blues

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Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin, the bare market blues. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out into the cryptoverse

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go ahead and jump in. So, there's a lot of interesting things to talk about right now.

Bitcoin found a low in February just as it always does. Had a rally into early March just as it always does. That rally was

faded just as it always does, just as it always has been. And then there was another rally that then swept the high.

Now, we also swept the high in March of 2022 as well, right? You can see there was in fact a high that was set um and

we ended up sweeping that high later on in March and then we ended up sort of capitulating down. One of the other

capitulating down. One of the other things though is if you don't believe we're here, if instead you think we're closer to say

this area, I could get on board with that. mainly

because you could argue that this sort of this trending back up to the 21week EMA could have been more like this pattern right there. And in terms of the breakdown

compared to say the low from the post having year, you could argue that this move right here looks more similar to this one. And so it's difficult because

this one. And so it's difficult because it's hard to know if Bitcoin will make it to the 21week EMA before the next leg down. I believe there will be another

down. I believe there will be another drop. I I I think Bitcoin will go back

drop. I I I think Bitcoin will go back down and and very likely set a new low in this bare market. Now, I know there's

a lot of mental gymnastics going on just like there was when Bitcoin topped back in October. And if you the mental

in October. And if you the mental gymnastics back then that occurred all over, you know, the cryptoverse were that, well, if everyone's calling for the four-year cycle, then it won't

happen, right? and and a lot of people

happen, right? and and a lot of people thought there would be a 5-year cycle.

They thought there would be a super cycle. They were basing it on things

cycle. They were basing it on things like liquidity lagged in two. The ISM

um lagged money supply, whatever it was, right? All sorts of things. One reason

right? All sorts of things. One reason

was their altcoin hadn't rallied yet, and that was the reason. But the reality is that Bitcoin topped when it always tops, and that's the fourth quarter of

the post having year. And that it entered into a bare market. Now, if you look at the year-to- date ROI of Bitcoin and look at 2026

and you compare it to 2022, looks kind of similar, right? So, we

can't necessarily rule out a rally to the 21week EMA. Like I I don't think you can necessarily rule it out,

but especially considering that every prior March we did tag it. But if we're here in say the summer, if we're further along than that, then you you could very

well get the next leg down without tagging the 21week EMA. I want to show you an example. All right, look at the year-to- date ROI of 2026, not compared

to 2022, not compared to 2018, but the one that it's actually tracking the closest, and that is 2014. So, in

2014, Bitcoin rallied to start the year and then sold off into February, had a little bit of a counter trend rally in March, and then ultimately found another

low in the month of April.

Now, if you go back and look at 2014, you'll see what I'm talking about, right? You'll see how Bitcoin set a low

right? You'll see how Bitcoin set a low in February, rallied into March, new low in April, and then eventually it came

back up and nearly swept the high from the March rally, but didn't quite do it.

And what you'll notice is that it then set another low. Guess when? first first

half of October. Now, back then there was another low going into 20 into 2015, but you can see the pattern, right? A

low in February, a low in April, and a low in October.

So, there is a chance here that we don't see a rally to the 21week EMA before the next leg down. And if you go

through all the different prior windows of weakness, you'll see that going into early April is not always the best time.

Now, there are some some um some evidence against that. But if you look at 2014, you can see that Bitcoin capitulated into the first half of April. If you look at 2018, you'll see

April. If you look at 2018, you'll see that Bitcoin capitulated into the first half of April. If you look at 28 or sorry, 2022, it's a little different. Uh

but it did capitulate into the first half of April and then just continue to go down into May. But in all prior cases and midterm years, Bitcoin capitulated

into the first half of April. So what if that's where we are? Like what if what if we're closer to the next leg down than we think?

It's difficult timing counter trend rallies, right? Like it's so hard. And

rallies, right? Like it's so hard. And

you know, I talked about this um I I I talked about this kind of when we started the year, and that is that I I wouldn't, you know, I wasn't going to spend all my time trying trying to time

these counter trend rallies, right? And

I said that very clearly that, you know, at least with my portfolio, I'm not out here trying to time every single counter trend rally in the hopes that I can I can make a quick buck. As I've said

previously, there's plenty of other assets in the markets that are doing just fine. And you know, I've been

just fine. And you know, I've been talking about those on ITC Premium a lot. Um, a lot of different stocks have

lot. Um, a lot of different stocks have been doing very, very well. And and

they're in bull markets. So, like, it's hard for me to care so much about counter trend rallies by Bitcoin because the other things that have been in a bull market are just

doing so much better. That's not a knock on Bitcoin. It's just what Bitcoin

on Bitcoin. It's just what Bitcoin always does in midterm years. is like, I don't control it. You don't control it.

None of us can control it. Trade the

market you have, not the market you want. Just cuz you want a bull market in

want. Just cuz you want a bull market in crypto doesn't mean you're going to get one. Um, so I'm starting to wonder, I

one. Um, so I'm starting to wonder, I mean, the next leg down could be closer than we think. Um,

and so if if you see Bitcoin capitulating into into April, perhaps we'll find another low around that time that, you know, maybe it'll then try to form a low there for a little while. You

can see there was a low formed in early 2018 that held for a few months until we got to June. There was a low in 2014 that held until we got to you know

October. Um and in 2022 there was a low

October. Um and in 2022 there was a low that formed in in May that I mean held for one month. But um ultimately that's kind of how the bare market goes. And

it's easy to want to like try to time everything. And you know what's crazy is

everything. And you know what's crazy is is throughout all of these rallies, you know, this goes with what we said is that in bare markets, Bitcoin spends more time trending up than trending

down. And you can see what happens. Like

down. And you can see what happens. Like

you can see why, right? Because a lot of people capitulate at the low and then the market just kind of trends up for a couple of months. It gives the bulls a

false sense of security and then we capitulate down. and and we're we're

capitulate down. and and we're we're repeating the same process. And I don't know how long it's going to last. They

tend to to vary. They're not usually all the same length. If you look at the last one, you can see from the low to the high, it took about 54 days. Um from

this low to the current high, it's been about 39. But again, you shouldn't

about 39. But again, you shouldn't expect them to all take around the same time. I mean, if you go back to look at

time. I mean, if you go back to look at 2022, um, you can see that this first one took around 63 days, but then the second one,

you know, only took like 20. So, they're

not all going to be the same length, but the pattern is the same, right? The

pattern is the same in that you see Bitcoin generally trend up and then it breaks down. And when it breaks down, it doesn't really give

people a lot of time to react. If

Bitcoin were to follow 2014 and just simply capitulate into April, imagine how scary that would be for people, especially the people that thought 60k was the low. That could then to lead

them to capitulating at these lows and then maybe then it'll form a low that'll last for a good part of the year and then we'll probably take it out later on in the fourth quarter.

But you can see the emotions that can form in the bare markets, right? You'll

get people that don't believe the bare market's happening in Q4. Some people will get on board by, you know, by Q1 or or sorry, um, late Q4. Some people will get on

board just in time for the bare market rally and then more people get on board just for another bare market rally. And then

as the year goes on, you convince more and more people. And then when there's no longer any any bulls left, that's usually when Bitcoin bottoms. Like once everyone's bearish. But I gotta tell you

everyone's bearish. But I gotta tell you guys, I mean, I put these videos out and every time I put one out, like five different influencers come after me. And

you know what I mean? Honestly, it just tells me that we probably have further down to go because the most important thing in Bitcoin is not a price. It It's time base

capitulation. It's It's people giving

capitulation. It's It's people giving up.

And I don't think that's happened yet.

Frankly, I don't think that's happened yet. So, we'll see. Yeah, we'll see if

yet. So, we'll see. Yeah, we'll see if Bitcoin has another move left in it. But

whether it happens now or in a couple of weeks, I I do think the next the next major outcome for Bitcoin is to come back down to these lows and and likely

go below those lows and I think that'll scare some people and um it'll probably lead to another capitulation low for a while and then we'll just trend up for a bit again until the next drop. And

usually you can expect a few of these, you know, I mean in in bare markets you kind of expect this to happen a lot and

then eventually things change. But it

it's not anything new, you know? I mean,

every bare market Bitcoin does basically the same thing, right? Like it'll it'll kind of trend up and then it'll just break down.

So, shouldn't really be seen as such an archaic view because it's literally what always happens. And I know it's easy to

always happens. And I know it's easy to want to be a contrarian on this and say, "Well, if it always happens, maybe it'll be different this time." But the problem is everyone's been saying that the whole bare market and it just keeps playing out the same way. So,

maybe I just have a case of the bare market blues. I have the bear goggles

market blues. I have the bear goggles on, but I don't really see a reason to take the bare goggles off right now. It

looks like Bitcoin is in a bare market just like it always is in midterm years and I I think that will likely continue.

If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, check out Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. You can also check out

cryptoverse.com. You can also check out benjaminc.com as well. Thank you guys for tuning in and I'll see you next time. Bye.

time. Bye.