Bloomberg Surveillance 11/25/2025

>> THE REALITY IS THE >> THE REALITY IS THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STILL SOUND.

FUNDAMENTALS ARE STILL SOUND.

>> I DO NOT HAVE -- I THINK WE >> I DO NOT HAVE -- I THINK WE HAVE SEEN THE BUBBLE TRADING HAVE SEEN THE BUBBLE TRADING AI. AI.

>> THE MARKET HAS SOME WORK TO >> THE MARKET HAS SOME WORK TO TAKE FROTH OUT. TAKE FROTH OUT.

>> THE REST OF THE MARKET >> THE REST OF THE MARKET BECOMES MORE VALUABLE.

BECOMES MORE VALUABLE.

>> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG >> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. HORDERN. LISA: LISA: GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING.

HORDERN. HORDERN. LISA: LISA: GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING.

WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE." STOCKS TAKING A BREATHER AFTER

SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE." STOCKS TAKING A BREATHER AFTER STOCKS TAKING A BREATHER AFTER THE BIGGEST TWO THEY GAIN SINCE THE BIGGEST TWO THEY GAIN SINCE MAY, WITH INVESTORS LOOKING FOR MAY, WITH INVESTORS LOOKING FOR RETAIL EARNINGS AND DATA.

RETAIL EARNINGS AND DATA. PRESIDENT TRUMP LOWERING THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP LOWERING THAT TEMPERATURE FURTHER WITH CHINA, TEMPERATURE FURTHER WITH CHINA, WITH PLANS TO VISIT THAT NATION WITH PLANS TO VISIT THAT NATION IN APRIL. IN APRIL.

ALPHABET -- FUTURES SURGING ON ALPHABET -- FUTURES SURGING ON THE REPORTS THEY ARE POSING THE REPORTS THEY ARE POSING SOME COMPETITION WITH NVIDIA. SOME COMPETITION WITH NVIDIA.

DANI: DANI: I WANT TO EXTEND MY SYMPATHIES I WANT TO EXTEND MY SYMPATHIES FOR ALL OF US WHO SUDDENLY HAD FOR ALL OF US WHO SUDDENLY HAD TO DO A DEEP DIVE ON TPU'S.

TO DO A DEEP DIVE ON TPU'S.

THERE IS REAL CHURN UNDERNEATH THERE IS REAL CHURN UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE OF TECH ON WHO WAS THE SURFACE OF TECH ON WHO WAS THE REAL WINNER OF AI. THE REAL WINNER OF AI.

CAN YOU CONTINUE TO GET A CAN YOU CONTINUE TO GET A REBOUND IF NVIDIA IS NOT REBOUND IF NVIDIA IS NOT PLAYING ALONG, EVEN IF WE PLAYING ALONG, EVEN IF WE DECIDED, FOR NOW, THE NEW DECIDED, FOR NOW, THE NEW WINNER IS ALPHABET. WINNER IS ALPHABET. LISA: LISA:

CAN YOU GET DISPERSION IN THE CAN YOU GET DISPERSION IN THE TECH SPACE AND NOT HAVE AN TECH SPACE AND NOT HAVE AN OVERALL MARKET ROLLOVER? OVERALL MARKET ROLLOVER?

THIS IS THE KEY QUESTION. THIS IS THE KEY QUESTION.

WE SAW THIS YESTERDAY WHEN WE SAW THIS YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WERE QUESTIONS ABOUT THERE WERE QUESTIONS ABOUT OPENAI AND GOOGLE ONCE AGAIN OPENAI AND GOOGLE ONCE AGAIN POSING REAL COMPETITION TO THE POSING REAL COMPETITION TO THE ENTIRE MODEL. ENTIRE MODEL. NOW A REAL QUESTION OF WHETHER

ENTIRE MODEL. ENTIRE MODEL. NOW A REAL QUESTION OF WHETHER NOW A REAL QUESTION OF WHETHER THEY CAN SUPERSEDE -- MAYBE NOT THEY CAN SUPERSEDE -- MAYBE NOT NVIDIA, BUT CLEARLY THE OTHER NVIDIA, BUT CLEARLY THE OTHER MAGNIFICENT SEVEN, IT IS NUMBER MAGNIFICENT SEVEN, IT IS NUMBER THREE IN TERMS OF MARKET THREE IN TERMS OF MARKET CAPITALIZATION. CAPITALIZATION.

DANI: DANI: AND IT HAS ADDED SO MUCH TO THE AND IT HAS ADDED SO MUCH TO THE S&P. S&P.

GIVEN THE RALLY WE HAVE SEEN GIVEN THE RALLY WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH. OVER THE PAST MONTH.

DOES IT SEEM WE ALL OF A SUDDEN DOES IT SEEM WE ALL OF A SUDDEN HAVE CHIPS THAT ARE BETTER HAVE CHIPS THAT ARE BETTER ENERGY EFFICIENT THAN NVIDIA? ENERGY EFFICIENT THAN NVIDIA?

THE PROBLEM IS AND NVIDIA THE PROBLEM IS AND NVIDIA CREATED THIS REALLY COMPLEX CREATED THIS REALLY COMPLEX WEB, SO IT IS NOT JUST AN VIDEO WEB, SO IT IS NOT JUST AN VIDEO THAT SUFFERS, IT IS MICROSOFT, THAT SUFFERS, IT IS MICROSOFT, SOFTBANK, OPENAI IT MAY BE HAS SOFTBANK, OPENAI IT MAY BE HAS A PROBLEM, ANTHROPIC MAY A PROBLEM, ANTHROPIC MAY PROBLEM. PROBLEM. LISA: LISA: THIS IS CLEARLY AN AREA RIPE

PROBLEM. PROBLEM. LISA: LISA: THIS IS CLEARLY AN AREA RIPE THIS IS CLEARLY AN AREA RIPE WITH -- RIFE WITH DISRUPTION.

WITH -- RIFE WITH DISRUPTION. WE WILL GET INTO YOUR STUDIES WE WILL GET INTO YOUR STUDIES ON GPU'S VERSUS TPU'S.

ON GPU'S VERSUS TPU'S. YOU WILL WHIP OUT YOUR YOU WILL WHIP OUT YOUR POWERPOINT, AND I'M SURE PEOPLE POWERPOINT, AND I'M SURE PEOPLE WILL BE INTERESTED IN IT.

WILL BE INTERESTED IN IT.

WE GET EARNINGS, -- TO GET WE GET EARNINGS, -- TO GET THESE EARNINGS REPORTS IN THE THESE EARNINGS REPORTS IN THE KICKOFF SEASON OF THE HOLIDAYS KICKOFF SEASON OF THE HOLIDAYS CREATES POSSIBILITIES INTO CREATES POSSIBILITIES INTO CONSUMER APPETITE. CONSUMER APPETITE. DANI: DANI:

CONSUMER APPETITE. CONSUMER APPETITE. DANI: DANI:

BECAUSE THERE ARE SERIOUS BECAUSE THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS BEING ASKED ABOUT THE QUESTIONS BEING ASKED ABOUT THE CONSUMER. CONSUMER. BEEMO DID A SURVEY OF 1000

CONSUMER. CONSUMER. BEEMO DID A SURVEY OF 1000 BEEMO DID A SURVEY OF 1000 CONSUMERS, AND THEY SAY HOLIDAY CONSUMERS, AND THEY SAY HOLIDAY SPENDING WILL BE MORE MODEST.

SPENDING WILL BE MORE MODEST. THERE WAS ALSO A ROUTE ON THERE WAS ALSO A ROUTE ON CARNIVAL FROM BARCLAY'S, WHO CARNIVAL FROM BARCLAY'S, WHO SAID WE WENT AND SURVEYED THE SAID WE WENT AND SURVEYED THE MANAGEMENT AND THEY ALSO SEEM MANAGEMENT AND THEY ALSO SEEM MORE CAUTIOUS. MORE CAUTIOUS.

CRUISE LINES HAVE BEEN THINGS CRUISE LINES HAVE BEEN THINGS PEOPLE POINT OUT TO SAY HOW PEOPLE POINT OUT TO SAY HOW GOOD THE CONSUMER IS. GOOD THE CONSUMER IS. LISA:

LISA: AND HALF OF THE S&P NOT AND HALF OF THE S&P NOT PARTICIPATING IN THE BEST TWO- PARTICIPATING IN THE BEST TWO- DAY RALLY SINCE MAY. DAY RALLY SINCE MAY.

WE ALSO GET RETAIL SALES DATA WE ALSO GET RETAIL SALES DATA COMING OUT FROM SEPTEMBER. COMING OUT FROM SEPTEMBER.

SOME INTERESTING FED SPEAK. SOME INTERESTING FED SPEAK.

MARY DALY SQUARELY IN THE CAMP MARY DALY SQUARELY IN THE CAMP OF CHRIS WALLER TO CUT RATES. OF CHRIS WALLER TO CUT RATES.

SHE IS NOT A VOTING MEMBER BUT SHE IS NOT A VOTING MEMBER BUT SHE HAS NEVER DEPARTED FROM SHE HAS NEVER DEPARTED FROM WHAT FED CHAIR JAY POWELL HAS WHAT FED CHAIR JAY POWELL HAS VOTED WITH. VOTED WITH. IT SIGNALS TO MARKET THEY WILL

VOTED WITH. VOTED WITH. IT SIGNALS TO MARKET THEY WILL IT SIGNALS TO MARKET THEY WILL CUT. CUT. DANI: DANI:

AND THIS IS WHAT HAS COME TO, AND THIS IS WHAT HAS COME TO, READING TEA LEAVES ON WHICH WAY READING TEA LEAVES ON WHICH WAY JAY POWELL WILL GO, BECAUSE WE JAY POWELL WILL GO, BECAUSE WE HAVE NOT HEARD FROM THE MAN HAVE NOT HEARD FROM THE MAN HIMSELF. HIMSELF. TO YOUR POINT, BECAUSE MARY

HIMSELF. HIMSELF. TO YOUR POINT, BECAUSE MARY TO YOUR POINT, BECAUSE MARY DALY IS SO ALIGNED WITH CHAIR DALY IS SO ALIGNED WITH CHAIR POWELL, WE ARE LOOKING TO HER POWELL, WE ARE LOOKING TO HER FOR DIRECTION. FOR DIRECTION.

LISA: LISA: LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN EQUITIES. EQUITIES.

YOU ARE SEEING A BOUNCE BACK YOU ARE SEEING A BOUNCE BACK FROM EARLIER LOWS. FROM EARLIER LOWS.

YOU ARE SEEING YIELD JUST YOU ARE SEEING YIELD JUST MARGINALLY CREEPING HIGHER ON MARGINALLY CREEPING HIGHER ON THE LONG END. THE LONG END. YESTERDAY WE SAW AN AUCTION.

YESTERDAY WE SAW AN AUCTION. CRUDE OFF JUST ABOUT ONE THIRD CRUDE OFF JUST ABOUT ONE THIRD OF 1%. OF 1%.

COMING UP, PETER TCHIR OF COMING UP, PETER TCHIR OF ACADEMY SECURITIES, ED ACADEMY SECURITIES, ED AL-HUSSAINY OF COLUMBIA AL-HUSSAINY OF COLUMBIA THREADNEEDLE, AND FORMER SENIOR THREADNEEDLE, AND FORMER SENIOR WHITE HOUSE TRADE ADVISOR AT WHITE HOUSE TRADE ADVISOR AT KELLY ANN SHAW. KELLY ANN SHAW. WE BEGIN THIS HOUR WITH STOCKS WE BEGIN THIS HOUR WITH STOCKS EDGING LOWER AS INVESTORS EDGING LOWER AS INVESTORS COUNTDOWN TO RETAIL EARNINGS.

COUNTDOWN TO RETAIL EARNINGS. PETER TCHIR OF ACADEMY PETER TCHIR OF ACADEMY SECURITIES WRITING AT THE END SECURITIES WRITING AT THE END OF FREE MONEY HAS BEEN A MAJOR OF FREE MONEY HAS BEEN A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE RECENT DOWNTURN FACTOR IN THE RECENT DOWNTURN AND COULD WEIGH ON THE ECONOMY AND COULD WEIGH ON THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS GOING FORWARD.

AND MARKETS GOING FORWARD. I THINK THE ECONOMY IS AT A I THINK THE ECONOMY IS AT A GREATER RISK THAN WE HAVE SEEN GREATER RISK THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME. IN SOME TIME.

PETER JOINS US NOW. PETER JOINS US NOW.

THIS SEEMS TO BE ECHOING WHAT THIS SEEMS TO BE ECHOING WHAT WE HEARD YESTERDAY, THINGS IN WE HEARD YESTERDAY, THINGS IN THE TRAIN MAY HAVE ALREADY LEFT THE TRAIN MAY HAVE ALREADY LEFT THE STATION WHEN IT COMES TO THE STATION WHEN IT COMES TO RATE CUTS AND THE POTENTIAL RATE CUTS AND THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO THE ECONOMY. DAMAGE TO THE ECONOMY.

WHY ARE YOU SO NEGATIVE AS WHY ARE YOU SO NEGATIVE AS WELL?

WELL? PETER: PETER: THERE WAS A TIME, IF YOU THERE WAS A TIME, IF YOU ANNOUNCED YOU WERE SPENDING X ANNOUNCED YOU WERE SPENDING X BILLION ON DATA CENTERS AND AI, BILLION ON DATA CENTERS AND AI, THE STOCK WENT UP 2X.

THE STOCK WENT UP 2X. NOW YOU ARE SEEING PEOPLE NOW YOU ARE SEEING PEOPLE QUESTION THAT. QUESTION THAT.

I THINK WE ARE GOING THROUGH I THINK WE ARE GOING THROUGH THIS BREATHER. THIS BREATHER. A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME, IF YOU

THIS BREATHER. THIS BREATHER. A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME, IF YOU A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME, IF YOU DO NOT HAVE AN AI STRATEGY, IT DO NOT HAVE AN AI STRATEGY, IT YOUR STOCK WAS GOING TO SUFFER.

YOUR STOCK WAS GOING TO SUFFER. THERE WAS A RUSH TO SPEND, THERE WAS A RUSH TO SPEND, SPEND, SPEND. SPEND, SPEND.

NOW EVERYONE IS HITTING BACK, NOW EVERYONE IS HITTING BACK, WHAT WE WANT TO SPEND ON, WHAT WHAT WE WANT TO SPEND ON, WHAT IS THE BEST VALUE? IS THE BEST VALUE?

THE HYPERSCALERS, YOU CANNOT THE HYPERSCALERS, YOU CANNOT SAY ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU WILL SAY ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU WILL BUILD MORE AND THE STOCK GOES BUILD MORE AND THE STOCK GOES UP. UP. PEOPLE ARE LIKE, HOW DO WE BE

UP. UP. PEOPLE ARE LIKE, HOW DO WE BE PEOPLE ARE LIKE, HOW DO WE BE CAUTIOUS ON THIS, WHERE DO WE CAUTIOUS ON THIS, WHERE DO WE SPEND, WHAT DO WE SPEND ON, SPEND, WHAT DO WE SPEND ON, WHAT TECHNOLOGY IS EMERGING?

WHAT TECHNOLOGY IS EMERGING? WE HAVE NOT TALKED ABOUT WE HAVE NOT TALKED ABOUT ANYTHING FROM CHINA YET WHICH ANYTHING FROM CHINA YET WHICH COULD DERAIL TALKS.

COULD DERAIL TALKS. LISA: LISA: YOU SAY THE END OF FREE MONEY, YOU SAY THE END OF FREE MONEY, AND I WANT TO DIVE INTO THAT.

AND I WANT TO DIVE INTO THAT. YESTERDAY, WE WERE TALKING YESTERDAY, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT TIGHTENING LIQUIDITY ABOUT TIGHTENING LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS.

A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE TYING A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE TYING THINGS LIKE THAT TO THE SELLOFF THINGS LIKE THAT TO THE SELLOFF IN BITCOIN. IN BITCOIN. PETER: PETER:

IN BITCOIN. IN BITCOIN. PETER: PETER:

YOU HAVE SEEN, GOING BACK TO YOU HAVE SEEN, GOING BACK TO SOME OF THE CRYPTO, YOU HAVE SOME OF THE CRYPTO, YOU HAVE THE DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY THE DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY COMPANIES. COMPANIES. SOME ARE VERY SOPHISTICATED,

COMPANIES. COMPANIES. SOME ARE VERY SOPHISTICATED, SOME ARE VERY SOPHISTICATED, SOME DO A LOT OF THINGS, AND SOME DO A LOT OF THINGS, AND THERE WAS A PERIOD OF TIME, IF THERE WAS A PERIOD OF TIME, IF YOU BOUGHT EITHER, YOUR STOCK YOU BOUGHT EITHER, YOUR STOCK WENT UP 2X. WENT UP 2X. THAT IS NOT HAPPENING.

THAT IS NOT HAPPENING. ALL THESE TRAITS WE WERE ALL THESE TRAITS WE WERE PERPETUATING HAVE FALLEN DOWN.

PERPETUATING HAVE FALLEN DOWN. EVERYTHING I HEAR AND SEE, WHEN EVERYTHING I HEAR AND SEE, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT CONSUMERS, WE TALK ABOUT CONSUMERS, CORPORATE'S, THERE IS CORPORATE'S, THERE IS BELT-TIGHTENING GOING ON BELT-TIGHTENING GOING ON EVERYWHERE. EVERYWHERE.

PEOPLE WILL BE SURPRISED IF PEOPLE WILL BE SURPRISED IF THEY GO THROUGH -- WHEN THEY GO THEY GO THROUGH -- WHEN THEY GO THROUGH THE BUDGETING PROCESS THROUGH THE BUDGETING PROCESS THAT COMPANIES WILL BE THAT COMPANIES WILL BE SHRINKING BUDGETS RATHER THAN SHRINKING BUDGETS RATHER THAN GOING FULL SCALE. GOING FULL SCALE. DANI: DANI:

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE WHAT DO YOU THINK THE ADMINISTRATION DOES? ADMINISTRATION DOES?

ADMINISTRATION DOES? ADMINISTRATION DOES?

WE WERE SPEAKING WITH THE WE WERE SPEAKING WITH THE COMMERCE SECRETARY, WHO WAS COMMERCE SECRETARY, WHO WAS BEATING THE DRUM, SAYING AI HAS BEATING THE DRUM, SAYING AI HAS BEEN A BOON TO THE ECONOMY. BEEN A BOON TO THE ECONOMY.

-- IS THIS AN ADMINISTRATION -- IS THIS AN ADMINISTRATION WHO WOULD SEE THIS SECTOR AS WHO WOULD SEE THIS SECTOR AS TOO BIG TO FAIL? TOO BIG TO FAIL? PETER: PETER:

WHAT THEY ARE DOING IS WHAT THEY ARE DOING IS INVESTING HEAVILY IN INVESTING HEAVILY IN ELECTRICITY AND ENERGY ELECTRICITY AND ENERGY PRODUCTION. PRODUCTION. WE ARE PUTTING MONEY INTO

PRODUCTION. PRODUCTION. WE ARE PUTTING MONEY INTO WE ARE PUTTING MONEY INTO NUCLEAR, PUTTING MONEY -- THE NUCLEAR, PUTTING MONEY -- THE BOTTLENECK IS ELECTRICITY, AS BOTTLENECK IS ELECTRICITY, AS WELL AS LOWER ELECTRICITY.

WELL AS LOWER ELECTRICITY. I SEE THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING A I SEE THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING A LOT OF TIME ON THAT.

LOT OF TIME ON THAT.

BUT PRODUCTION -- THESE ARE THE BUT PRODUCTION -- THESE ARE THE THINGS OF THE GOVERNMENTS ARE THINGS OF THE GOVERNMENTS ARE TRYING TO MAKE SURE GOES ALONG. TRYING TO MAKE SURE GOES ALONG.

IT WILL BE HARD FOR THEM TO IT WILL BE HARD FOR THEM TO INTERVENE DIRECTLY ON THAT. INTERVENE DIRECTLY ON THAT.

IF WE GET THIS AI SLOW DOWN, IF WE GET THIS AI SLOW DOWN, UNLESS OTHER PARTS OF THE UNLESS OTHER PARTS OF THE ECONOMY PICK UP, WE WILL SEE ECONOMY PICK UP, WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL -- MAYBE NOT THE POTENTIAL -- MAYBE NOT RECESSION BUT SLOWDOWN. RECESSION BUT SLOWDOWN. DANI:

DANI: -- A LOT OF THE GAINS IN -- A LOT OF THE GAINS IN EQUITIES HAVE BEEN TIED TO AI. EQUITIES HAVE BEEN TIED TO AI.

IF AI STARTS TO TAKE A IF AI STARTS TO TAKE A BREATHER, WHAT OVERALL EFFECT BREATHER, WHAT OVERALL EFFECT IS THAT HAVE? IS THAT HAVE? PETER: PETER:

WE HAVE SEEN THE HIP TO CRYPTO. WE HAVE SEEN THE HIP TO CRYPTO.

IT SEEMS TO TRACK WELL. IT SEEMS TO TRACK WELL.

I ALWAYS USE ARKK AS A I ALWAYS USE ARKK AS A DISRUPTIVE FORCE STOCKS. DISRUPTIVE FORCE STOCKS.

THOSE STOCKS ARE DOWN. THOSE STOCKS ARE DOWN.

YOU SEE THIS BIG MOVE IN YOU SEE THIS BIG MOVE IN SEGMENTS IN THE MARKET. SEGMENTS IN THE MARKET.

YOU HAVE ALREADY SEEN A CHUNK YOU HAVE ALREADY SEEN A CHUNK WIPED OUT FOR PEOPLE WHO WOULD WIPED OUT FOR PEOPLE WHO WOULD SPEND THAT MONEY. SPEND THAT MONEY.

EVERYTHING IS GOING TO THE EVERYTHING IS GOING TO THE MOON, CRYPTO IS GOING TO 2000. MOON, CRYPTO IS GOING TO 2000.

I THINK IT DOES CREATE THIS I THINK IT DOES CREATE THIS NEGATIVE WEALTH EFFECT. NEGATIVE WEALTH EFFECT. LISA:

LISA: THERE ARE THREE WAYS TO LOOK AT THERE ARE THREE WAYS TO LOOK AT THIS. THIS.

THERE WILL BE A RECESSION THAT THERE WILL BE A RECESSION THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN, THEN THERE IS WILL NOT HAPPEN, THEN THERE IS A WAY OF SAYING THERE WILL BE A A WAY OF SAYING THERE WILL BE A REBOUND EARLY NEXT YEAR BECAUSE REBOUND EARLY NEXT YEAR BECAUSE OF THE TAX REFUND AND OTHER OF THE TAX REFUND AND OTHER STIMULATIVE EFFORTS BUT THAT STIMULATIVE EFFORTS BUT THAT THERE WILL BE FLAGGING GROWTH. THERE WILL BE FLAGGING GROWTH.

THE THIRD WAY OF LOOKING AT THE THIRD WAY OF LOOKING AT THIS IS IT WILL BE MORALLY THIS IS IT WILL BE MORALLY HAZARDOUS FOR EITHER THIS HAZARDOUS FOR EITHER THIS ADMINISTRATION OR THE FEDERAL ADMINISTRATION OR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO ALLOW THIS MARKET TO RESERVE TO ALLOW THIS MARKET TO CREATOR, SO YOU WILL SEE A CREATOR, SO YOU WILL SEE A BAZOOKA OF STIMULUS FROM A FED BAZOOKA OF STIMULUS FROM A FED

RATE CUTS WHICH WILL PROPEL RATE CUTS WHICH WILL PROPEL THIS MARKET HIGHER. THIS MARKET HIGHER.

WHERE DO YOU COME IN? WHERE DO YOU COME IN? PETER:

PETER: COMING INTO THE MIDTERM COMING INTO THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS, WE WILL SEE A HUGE ELECTIONS, WE WILL SEE A HUGE BOOST. I EXPECT A LOT OF BOOST. I EXPECT A LOT OF

BOOST. I EXPECT A LOT OF BOOST. I EXPECT A LOT OF STIMULUS COMING INTO THAT. STIMULUS COMING INTO THAT.

MY FAVORITE TRAIT HAS BEEN TO MY FAVORITE TRAIT HAS BEEN TO BE UNDERWEIGHT NASDAQ, AND I BE UNDERWEIGHT NASDAQ, AND I LIKE THE S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT, LIKE THE S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT, AND I THINK YOU WILL GET A BIT AND I THINK YOU WILL GET A BIT OF REBALANCING. OF REBALANCING. SOME OF THE AIR WILL LEAK OUT

OF REBALANCING. OF REBALANCING. SOME OF THE AIR WILL LEAK OUT SOME OF THE AIR WILL LEAK OUT OF AI, SOME OF IT WILL TRANSFER OF AI, SOME OF IT WILL TRANSFER TO THE REST OF THE ECONOMY.

TO THE REST OF THE ECONOMY.

AS WE TAKE AWAY INVESTOR FOCUS AS WE TAKE AWAY INVESTOR FOCUS TO ELECTRICITY, BUT WHAT ELSE TO ELECTRICITY, BUT WHAT ELSE ARE WE BUILDING AND MAKING? ARE WE BUILDING AND MAKING?

WE WILL TRY TO BUILD WE WILL TRY TO BUILD MANUFACTURING PLANTS, TRYING TO MANUFACTURING PLANTS, TRYING TO BUILD REFINING AND PROCESSING BUILD REFINING AND PROCESSING COMPANIES. COMPANIES. THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY, AND

COMPANIES. COMPANIES. THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY, AND THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY, AND THAT IS WHERE IT WILL SHINE THAT IS WHERE IT WILL SHINE NEXT YEAR. NEXT YEAR. LISA:

LISA: IF YOU ARE DEFENSIVE, CAN YOU IF YOU ARE DEFENSIVE, CAN YOU GO INTO LONG-TERM BONDS WITH GO INTO LONG-TERM BONDS WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS IS AN THE EXPECTATION THIS IS AN INCENTIVIZED FEDERAL RESERVE TO INCENTIVIZED FEDERAL RESERVE TO BRING DOWN LONG-TERM COSTS? BRING DOWN LONG-TERM COSTS?

PETER: PETER: NORMALLY I WOULD SAY YES, BUT I NORMALLY I WOULD SAY YES, BUT I AM STUCK ON THE BELLY OF THE AM STUCK ON THE BELLY OF THE CURVE. CURVE.

I THINK THERE WILL BE OUTWARD I THINK THERE WILL BE OUTWARD PRESSURE. PRESSURE.

PRESSURE. PRESSURE.

DID WE CUT TOO MUCH, DID WE PAY DID WE CUT TOO MUCH, DID WE PAY INTENTION -- ATTENTION TO INTENTION -- ATTENTION TO INFLATION? INFLATION? I COULD SEE US DOWN 3% ON FED

INFLATION? INFLATION? I COULD SEE US DOWN 3% ON FED I COULD SEE US DOWN 3% ON FED FUNDS AND IT COULD STILL SEE FUNDS AND IT COULD STILL SEE THE 10 YEAR CLOSE TO 4%.

THE 10 YEAR CLOSE TO 4%. DANI: DANI:

ARE YOU GETTING THE VIBES FROM ARE YOU GETTING THE VIBES FROM THE FED THEY WILL BE FORCEFUL? THE FED THEY WILL BE FORCEFUL?

PETER: PETER: I AM NOT REALLY PAYING THAT I AM NOT REALLY PAYING THAT MUCH ATTENTION. MUCH ATTENTION.

THE FED WILL LOOK VERY THE FED WILL LOOK VERY DIFFERENT NEXT YEAR. DIFFERENT NEXT YEAR.

WE GET TO 3% BEFORE THE MIDDLE WE GET TO 3% BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF THE SUMMER. OF THE SUMMER. I DO NOT CARE WHETHER WE CUT IN I DO NOT CARE WHETHER WE CUT IN DECEMBER OR NOT CARE THAT IS MY DECEMBER OR NOT CARE THAT IS MY BASE CASE. BASE CASE.

I'M SPENDING LESS ATTENTION ON I'M SPENDING LESS ATTENTION ON WHO WAS TALKING TODAY. WHO WAS TALKING TODAY.

WE KNOW WE ARE GETTING THESE WE KNOW WE ARE GETTING THESE CUTS IN THE FUTURE. CUTS IN THE FUTURE. LISA: LISA:

IT TELLS YOU SOMETHING WHEN IT TELLS YOU SOMETHING WHEN PETER TCHIR IS NOT KEEPING PETER TCHIR IS NOT KEEPING TRACK OF EACH FED SPEAKER. TRACK OF EACH FED SPEAKER. DANI:

DANI: ALSO A GREAT WAY TO PRESERVE ALSO A GREAT WAY TO PRESERVE YOUR SANITY. YOUR SANITY. LISA:

LISA: 100%. 100%. CONGRATULATIONS FOR BEING SANE.

CONGRATULATIONS FOR BEING SANE. PETER TCHIR IS STAYING WITH US.

PETER TCHIR IS STAYING WITH US. LET'S GET YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF LET'S GET YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH VONNIE QUINN.

WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE: VONNIE:

FIGHTING BETWEEN RUSSIA AND FIGHTING BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE CONTINUING WITH HEAVY UKRAINE CONTINUING WITH HEAVY DRONE ATTACKS ON KYIV AND DRONE ATTACKS ON KYIV AND UKRAINE ASSAULTS ON SOUTHERN UKRAINE ASSAULTS ON SOUTHERN RUSSIA. RUSSIA. THIS COMES AFTER PRESIDENT

RUSSIA. RUSSIA. THIS COMES AFTER PRESIDENT THIS COMES AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP SUGGESTS BIG PROGRESS WAS TRUMP SUGGESTS BIG PROGRESS WAS MADE ON THE DEAL TO END THE MADE ON THE DEAL TO END THE FIGHTING. FIGHTING.

THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY SAYS HE STILL HOPES THE DEAL SAYS HE STILL HOPES THE DEAL CAN GET DONE BY THANKSGIVING. CAN GET DONE BY THANKSGIVING.

PRESIDENT TRUMP AND HIS CHINESE PRESIDENT TRUMP AND HIS CHINESE COUNTERPART XI JINPING HELD COUNTERPART XI JINPING HELD THEIR FIRST TOXINS AGREEING THEIR FIRST TOXINS AGREEING LAST MONTH TO A TARIFF TRUCE. LAST MONTH TO A TARIFF TRUCE.

TRUMP SAID THE CALL WAS VERY TRUMP SAID THE CALL WAS VERY GOOD AND TOUCHED ON ISSUES LIKE GOOD AND TOUCHED ON ISSUES LIKE TRADE AND UKRAINE. TRADE AND UKRAINE.

HE ALSO SAID WILL VISIT BEIJING HE ALSO SAID WILL VISIT BEIJING IN APRIL AND HE INVITED XI FOR IN APRIL AND HE INVITED XI FOR A STATE VISIT NEXT YEAR. A STATE VISIT NEXT YEAR.

ALPHABET ARISING AFTER REPORTS ALPHABET ARISING AFTER REPORTS OF TALKS META PLANS TO USE OF TALKS META PLANS TO USE GOOGLE'S TPU'S IN DATA CENTERS GOOGLE'S TPU'S IN DATA CENTERS FROM 2027. FROM 2027.

FROM 2027. FROM 2027.

AN AGREEMENT WOULD ESTABLISH AN AGREEMENT WOULD ESTABLISH TPU'S AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO TPU'S AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO NVIDIA'S GPU'S CHIPS. NVIDIA'S GPU'S CHIPS. LISA:

LISA: ALL RIGHT, THIS IS THE TIME, ALL RIGHT, THIS IS THE TIME, TPU VERSUS GPU. TPU VERSUS GPU.

DANI: DANI: GPU, NVIDIA'S SHIP, ORIGINALLY GPU, NVIDIA'S SHIP, ORIGINALLY FOR GRAPHICS PROCESSING, SO IT FOR GRAPHICS PROCESSING, SO IT TAKES A LOT OF ENERGY AND HAS A TAKES A LOT OF ENERGY AND HAS A LOT OF BROAD APPLICATIONS. LOT OF BROAD APPLICATIONS.

TPU, BUILT BY GOOGLE, MORE TPU, BUILT BY GOOGLE, MORE EFFICIENT. EFFICIENT. PEOPLE ARE USING A LOT OF AND

EFFICIENT. EFFICIENT. PEOPLE ARE USING A LOT OF AND PEOPLE ARE USING A LOT OF AND VIDEO CHIPS, AND THERE IS A VIDEO CHIPS, AND THERE IS A KIND OF LOCKED IN THING TO IT.

KIND OF LOCKED IN THING TO IT. LISA: LISA: THIS IS THE DEBATE.

THIS IS THE DEBATE. MORE ENERGY-EFFICIENT BUT MORE MORE ENERGY-EFFICIENT BUT MORE RESTRICTIVE BUT MORE ENERGY RESTRICTIVE BUT MORE ENERGY INTENSIVE BUT MORE FLEXIBLE?

INTENSIVE BUT MORE FLEXIBLE? COMING UP, WE TALK ABOUT COMING UP, WE TALK ABOUT LOWERING THE TEMPERATURE WITH LOWERING THE TEMPERATURE WITH CHINA. CHINA.

>> THE FOCUS WAS MAINLY ON THE >> THE FOCUS WAS MAINLY ON THE TRADE DEAL THAT WE ARE WORKING TRADE DEAL THAT WE ARE WORKING ON WITH CHINA AND THOSE ON WITH CHINA AND THOSE RELATIONS AND HOW THEY ARE RELATIONS AND HOW THEY ARE MOVING IN A POSITIVE DIRECTION.

MOVING IN A POSITIVE DIRECTION. LISA: LISA:

BLOOMBERG'S MICA SOELLNER JOINS BLOOMBERG'S MICA SOELLNER JOINS US NEXT. US NEXT. THIS IS "SURVEILLANCE."

US NEXT. US NEXT. THIS IS "SURVEILLANCE."

THIS IS "SURVEILLANCE." ♪ ♪ LISA: LISA: STOCKS KIND OF MEANDERING HERE, STOCKS KIND OF MEANDERING HERE, DIPPING A TOUCH AFTER DIPPING A TOUCH AFTER YESTERDAY'S SURGE, THE BIGGEST YESTERDAY'S SURGE, THE BIGGEST IN SIX WEEKS FOR THE S&P, THE IN SIX WEEKS FOR THE S&P, THE BIGGEST TWO DAY RALLY FOR THE BIGGEST TWO DAY RALLY FOR THE S&P AND NASDAQ GOING BACK TO S&P AND NASDAQ GOING BACK TO MAY. MAY.

TODAY TAKING A BIT OF HEAT OUT TODAY TAKING A BIT OF HEAT OUT OF THAT. OF THAT. SEEN YIELDS UP MARGINALLY BUT

OF THAT. OF THAT. SEEN YIELDS UP MARGINALLY BUT SEEN YIELDS UP MARGINALLY BUT STILL LOWER THAN THEY WERE TO STILL LOWER THAN THEY WERE TO START YESTERDAY.

START YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE, TAKE A LOOK AT MEANWHILE, TAKE A LOOK AT NVIDIA AND GOOGLE IN PREMARKET NVIDIA AND GOOGLE IN PREMARKET TRADING. TRADING.

HUGE DISPERSION. HUGE DISPERSION.

ALPHABET SHARES UP 4.1%, AND ALPHABET SHARES UP 4.1%, AND VIDEO LOWER BY 3.6%. VIDEO LOWER BY 3.6%.

UNDER SURVEILLANCE THIS UNDER SURVEILLANCE THIS MORNING, LOWERING THE MORNING, LOWERING THE TEMPERATURE WITH CHINA. TEMPERATURE WITH CHINA.

>> I DID SPEAK WITH HIM ABOUT >> I DID SPEAK WITH HIM ABOUT THE CALL. THE CALL.

IT LASTED ABOUT AN HOUR, AND IT IT LASTED ABOUT AN HOUR, AND IT WAS A VERY POSITIVE CALL. WAS A VERY POSITIVE CALL.

THE FOCUS MAINLY WAS ON THE THE FOCUS MAINLY WAS ON THE TRADE DEAL WE ARE WORKING ON TRADE DEAL WE ARE WORKING ON WITH CHINA AND THOSE RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND THOSE RELATIONS AND HOW THEY ARE MOVING IN A AND HOW THEY ARE MOVING IN A POSITIVE DIRECTION. POSITIVE DIRECTION.

POSITIVE DIRECTION. POSITIVE DIRECTION.

THE PRESIDENT AND PRESIDENT XI THE PRESIDENT AND PRESIDENT XI DISCUSSED CONTINUING TO STAY IN DISCUSSED CONTINUING TO STAY IN CORRESPONDENCE. CORRESPONDENCE. LISA: LISA:

CORRESPONDENCE. CORRESPONDENCE. LISA: LISA:

PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING HIS CALL PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING HIS CALL WITH PRESIDENT XI WENT WELL. WITH PRESIDENT XI WENT WELL.

BLOOMBERG'S MICA SOELLNER JOINS BLOOMBERG'S MICA SOELLNER JOINS US NOW. US NOW.

US NOW. US NOW.

WHAT WAS THE UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT WAS THE UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT WAS DISCUSSED IN THE WHAT WAS DISCUSSED IN THE HOUR-LONG PHONE CALL BETWEEN XI HOUR-LONG PHONE CALL BETWEEN XI AND TRUMP? AND TRUMP? MICA: MICA:

AND TRUMP? AND TRUMP? MICA: MICA:

THE PRESIDENT AND THE CHINESE THE PRESIDENT AND THE CHINESE PRESIDENT SPOKE FOR ROUGHLY AN PRESIDENT SPOKE FOR ROUGHLY AN HOUR, LARGELY FOCUSED ON TRADE HOUR, LARGELY FOCUSED ON TRADE AND TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, AND TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, PARTICULARLY AROUND SOYBEANS PARTICULARLY AROUND SOYBEANS AND HOW CHINA IS IMPACTING U.S. AND HOW CHINA IS IMPACTING U.S.

FARMERS. FARMERS. THAT WAS A LARGE FOCUS OF THE THAT WAS A LARGE FOCUS OF THE CALL. CALL.

THE TWO ALSO TOUCHED ON THE THE TWO ALSO TOUCHED ON THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR BRIEFLY, BUT UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR BRIEFLY, BUT I KNOW THAT HAVE BEEN I KNOW THAT HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT STEPS WITH THE TWO SIGNIFICANT STEPS WITH THE TWO PROMISING TO SEE EACH OTHER IN PROMISING TO SEE EACH OTHER IN PERSON NEXT YEAR. PERSON NEXT YEAR. LISA: LISA:

THE TWO READOUTS, WHETHER FROM THE TWO READOUTS, WHETHER FROM THE U.S. THE U.S. OR CHINA, WERE VASTLY

THE U.S. THE U.S. OR CHINA, WERE VASTLY OR CHINA, WERE VASTLY DIFFERENT. DIFFERENT. THE ONE FROM THE U.S.

THE ONE FROM THE U.S. WERE TALKING ABOUT TRADE AS WERE TALKING ABOUT TRADE AS WELL AS A SMATTERING OF UKRAINE WELL AS A SMATTERING OF UKRAINE AND RUSSIA. AND RUSSIA.

THE ONE FROM CHINA IT REALLY THE ONE FROM CHINA IT REALLY TOUCHED ON TAIWAN. TOUCHED ON TAIWAN.

CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THE HUGE CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THE HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO READOUTS? READOUTS? MICA: MICA: I THINK IT IS REALLY

READOUTS? READOUTS? MICA: MICA: I THINK IT IS REALLY I THINK IT IS REALLY INTERESTING, AND I THINK THERE INTERESTING, AND I THINK THERE WILL BE TENSION AROUND TAIWAN.

WILL BE TENSION AROUND TAIWAN. I KNOW THAT IS A BIG PRIORITY I KNOW THAT IS A BIG PRIORITY FOR THE ADMINISTRATION.

FOR THE ADMINISTRATION. I ALSO THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP I ALSO THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTS TO HAVE A GOOD WANTS TO HAVE A GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA.

RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA. I THINK IT IS REALLY DIFFERENT I THINK IT IS REALLY DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS FROM PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS IN THE WAY HE NEGOTIATES WITH IN THE WAY HE NEGOTIATES WITH COUNTRIES CONSIDERED COUNTRIES CONSIDERED ADVERSARIAL TO THE U.S.

ADVERSARIAL TO THE U.S. SO A LOT OF GOING ON -- A LOT SO A LOT OF GOING ON -- A LOT GOING ON ANY LOT OF REACTION GOING ON ANY LOT OF REACTION FROM CHINA HAWKS AS WELL.

FROM CHINA HAWKS AS WELL. LISA: LISA:

MICA SOELLNER, THANK YOU SO MICA SOELLNER, THANK YOU SO MUCH. MUCH. PETER TCHIR OF ACADEMY

MUCH. MUCH. PETER TCHIR OF ACADEMY PETER TCHIR OF ACADEMY SECURITIES IS STILL WITH US.

SECURITIES IS STILL WITH US. MR. PROSEC, LET'S PUT THE HOT MR. PROSEC, LET'S PUT THE HOT ON. ON.

THIS IS HAVE MORE ON SPONSORS THIS IS HAVE MORE ON SPONSORS FOR UKRAINE AND RUSSIA OR FOR FOR UKRAINE AND RUSSIA OR FOR TAIWAN? TAIWAN? PETER: PETER: PROBABLY MORE TAIWAN.

TAIWAN? TAIWAN? PETER: PETER: PROBABLY MORE TAIWAN.

PROBABLY MORE TAIWAN.

I HAVE WORKED WITH SEVERAL I HAVE WORKED WITH SEVERAL RETIRED GENERALS, ADMIRALS. RETIRED GENERALS, ADMIRALS.

WE ARE HAVING CONVERSATIONS WE ARE HAVING CONVERSATIONS WITH CLIENTS. WITH CLIENTS.

WITH CLIENTS. WITH CLIENTS.

XI SAID HE WANTS HIS MILITARY XI SAID HE WANTS HIS MILITARY READY BY 2027. READY BY 2027.

THE LEVERS OF POWER ARE THE LEVERS OF POWER ARE DIPLOMACY INFORMATION, DIPLOMACY INFORMATION MILITARY, AND ECONOMICS. MILITARY, AND ECONOMICS.

I THINK THEY WILL PUT SO MUCH I THINK THEY WILL PUT SO MUCH PRESSURE ON TAIWAN, TAIWAN WILL PRESSURE ON TAIWAN, TAIWAN WILL EVENTUALLY SAY ENOUGH IS EVENTUALLY SAY ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, AND WE ARE SEEING THE ENOUGH, AND WE ARE SEEING THE U.S. U.S. FOR A BIT AWAY FROM GLOBAL

U.S. U.S. FOR A BIT AWAY FROM GLOBAL FOR A BIT AWAY FROM GLOBAL POLICEMAN OF THE WORLD TO POLICEMAN OF THE WORLD TO REALLY FOCUS ON DOMESTIC.

REALLY FOCUS ON DOMESTIC. THE MONROE DOCTRINE SEEMS TO BE THE MONROE DOCTRINE SEEMS TO BE TAKING PLACE AGAIN.

TAKING PLACE AGAIN. SO THERE IS THIS BIG DOMESTIC SO THERE IS THIS BIG DOMESTIC FOCUS. FOCUS.

I THINK THERE IS A RISK TAIWAN I THINK THERE IS A RISK TAIWAN FEELS A BIT LEFT OUT, A BIT FEELS A BIT LEFT OUT, A BIT NERVOUS. NERVOUS. WHEN WE LOOK AT TRADE

NERVOUS. NERVOUS. WHEN WE LOOK AT TRADE WHEN WE LOOK AT TRADE NEGOTIATIONS NOW, THE TWO NEGOTIATIONS NOW, THE TWO THINGS I THINK CHINA HAS SOME THINGS I THINK CHINA HAS SOME POWER OVER ARE STILL THE POWER OVER ARE STILL THE PROCESS TO BE REFINED WITH PROCESS TO BE REFINED WITH MINERALS, SO ON PRO-SEC, -- WE MINERALS, SO ON PRO-SEC, -- WE WANT TO MAKE SURE WE CAN WANT TO MAKE SURE WE CAN

PROCESS AND REFINE THEM. PROCESS AND REFINE THEM.

WE CONTROL THE CHIPS, CONTROL WE CONTROL THE CHIPS, CONTROL THE BEST QUALITY CHIPS. THE BEST QUALITY CHIPS.

THOSE ARE THING CHINA WANTS. THOSE ARE THING CHINA WANTS.

AT THE SAME TIME, CHINA AT THE SAME TIME, CHINA CONTROLS THE ABILITY FOR TAIWAN CONTROLS THE ABILITY FOR TAIWAN TO SHIP THINGS. TO SHIP THINGS. SO FAR, THEY HAVE NOT DONE SO FAR, THEY HAVE NOT DONE ANYTHING BUT THEY HAVE A LARGE ANYTHING BUT THEY HAVE A LARGE MARITIME MILITIA.

MARITIME MILITIA. THEY CAN PUT THIS TO SHIPPING THEY CAN PUT THIS TO SHIPPING VESSELS AND THEY WOULD DISPERSE VESSELS AND THEY WOULD DISPERSE THEMSELVES IN SUCH A WAY TO THEMSELVES IN SUCH A WAY TO SLOW SHIPPING IT.

SLOW SHIPPING IT. THEY WILL THROW LOGS OFF, THROW THEY WILL THROW LOGS OFF, THROW NETS TO FOUL PROPELLERS.

NETS TO FOUL PROPELLERS. THEY CAN DO A LOT IF THEY WANT THEY CAN DO A LOT IF THEY WANT TO PUSH ON US ON TAIWAIN.

TO PUSH ON US ON TAIWAIN. --TAIWAN. --TAIWAN.

IT FEELS WE ARE FOCUSING MORE IT FEELS WE ARE FOCUSING MORE MONROE DOCTRINE. MONROE DOCTRINE. DANI: DANI:

MONROE DOCTRINE. MONROE DOCTRINE. DANI: DANI:

WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE SOMEONE WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE SOMEONE LIKE JAPAN, AFTER THE PRIME LIKE JAPAN, AFTER THE PRIME MINISTER MADE OFF REMARK THAT MINISTER MADE OFF REMARK THAT THEY WOULD SUPPORT OR TAKE THEY WOULD SUPPORT OR TAKE ACTION IF CHINA HAD MILITARY ACTION IF CHINA HAD MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TAIWAN? ACTION AGAINST TAIWAN? PETER:

PETER: IT LEAVES EVERYONE QUESTIONING IT LEAVES EVERYONE QUESTIONING WHAT IS OUR MISSION?

WHAT IS OUR MISSION? THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WAS THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WAS CLEAR WE WOULD SUPPORT TAIWAN.

CLEAR WE WOULD SUPPORT TAIWAN. TRUMP HAS NOT BEEN CLEAR TRUMP HAS NOT BEEN CLEAR BEFORE. BEFORE.

OUR DOCTRINE BEFORE BIDEN WAS OUR DOCTRINE BEFORE BIDEN WAS STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY.

STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY.

PEOPLE USED TO TALK -- PEOPLE USED TO TALK -- SHIPPING, YOU HAVE TO DIVERSIFY SHIPPING, YOU HAVE TO DIVERSIFY YOUR SUPPLY CHAINS ALONG YOUR SUPPLY CHAINS ALONG SHIPPING ROUTES. SHIPPING ROUTES.

SHIPPING ROUTES. SHIPPING ROUTES.

YOU CANNOT BE DEPENDENT ON ONE YOU CANNOT BE DEPENDENT ON ONE SHIPPING LANE. SHIPPING LANE.

SHIPPING LANE. SHIPPING LANE.

SO THAILAND AND VIETNAM ARE NOT SO THAILAND AND VIETNAM ARE NOT DIVERSIFIED. DIVERSIFIED. PEOPLE HAVE TO SAY WHAT HAPPENS

DIVERSIFIED. DIVERSIFIED. PEOPLE HAVE TO SAY WHAT HAPPENS PEOPLE HAVE TO SAY WHAT HAPPENS IF -- MAYBE IT NEVER HAPPENS, IF -- MAYBE IT NEVER HAPPENS, MAYBE WE GO ON LIVING MAYBE WE GO ON LIVING PEACEFULLY AND WE HAVE GREAT PEACEFULLY AND WE HAVE GREAT ECONOMIC DEALS THAT ALLOW IT.

ECONOMIC DEALS THAT ALLOW IT. I THINK WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR I THINK WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR MORE RISK. MORE RISK. DANI:

DANI: I HAVE HAD CONVERSATIONS WITH I HAVE HAD CONVERSATIONS WITH PRIVATE EQUITY COMPANIES AND PRIVATE EQUITY COMPANIES AND THEY HAVE SAID WE HAVE DONE THEY HAVE SAID WE HAVE DONE SUCH A GOOD JOB SINCE TRUMP SUCH A GOOD JOB SINCE TRUMP CAME IN AS PRESIDENT BECAUSE WE CAME IN AS PRESIDENT BECAUSE WE DE-RISKED FROM CHINA AND NOW WE DE-RISKED FROM CHINA AND NOW WE ARE IN SOUTH ASIA.

ARE IN SOUTH ASIA. IN THESE PLACES THAT MAY STILL IN THESE PLACES THAT MAY STILL FEEL A BLOWBACK SHOULD THERE BE FEEL A BLOWBACK SHOULD THERE BE LARGER SCALE CONFLICT.

LARGER SCALE CONFLICT. IS THE SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENT IS THE SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY MOVE AWAY ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY MOVE AWAY FROM THAT REGION, EVEN IF IT IS FROM THAT REGION, EVEN IF IT IS NOT CHINA? NOT CHINA? PETER:

PETER: NO, BUT YOU CAN DIVERSIFY.

NO, BUT YOU CAN DIVERSIFY. YOU WILL TRY TO SELL INTO THAT YOU WILL TRY TO SELL INTO THAT REGION. REGION.

THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF OPPORTUNITIES. OPPORTUNITIES. YOU WANT TO BE THERE.

OPPORTUNITIES. OPPORTUNITIES. YOU WANT TO BE THERE.

YOU WANT TO BE THERE. BUT WANT TO LOOK AT SOUTH AND BUT WANT TO LOOK AT SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CENTRAL AMERICA. HOW DO WE DO BETTER WITH HOW DO WE DO BETTER WITH BRAZIL? BRAZIL?

WE ARE WORKING CLOSELY WITH WE ARE WORKING CLOSELY WITH ARGENTINA. ARGENTINA. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF

ARGENTINA. ARGENTINA. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF THERE WILL BE A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES IN THAT OPPORTUNITIES IN THAT NORTH-SOUTH. NORTH-SOUTH.

AND THEY TALK ABOUT THE TYRANNY AND THEY TALK ABOUT THE TYRANNY OF DISTANCE. OF DISTANCE. IT'S HARD TO FIGHT A WAR IF YOU

OF DISTANCE. OF DISTANCE. IT'S HARD TO FIGHT A WAR IF YOU IT'S HARD TO FIGHT A WAR IF YOU ARE FAR AWAY. ARE FAR AWAY.

IF YOU LOOK A GUAM RELATIVE TO IF YOU LOOK A GUAM RELATIVE TO WHERE IT IS TO TAIPEI, IT IS WHERE IT IS TO TAIPEI, IT IS REALLY FAR. REALLY FAR. THEY HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM WHEN

REALLY FAR. REALLY FAR. THEY HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM WHEN THEY HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM WHEN YOU LOOK AT CENTRAL AND SOUTH YOU LOOK AT CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. AMERICA.

THE FIRST PLACE MARCO RUBIO ONE THE FIRST PLACE MARCO RUBIO ONE WAS THE PANAMA CANAL. WAS THE PANAMA CANAL.

THAT HAS NEVER REALLY HAPPENED THAT HAS NEVER REALLY HAPPENED IN OUR HISTORY. IN OUR HISTORY.

THE SECRETARY ALMOST ALWAYS THE SECRETARY ALMOST ALWAYS GOES TO THE U.K. GOES TO THE U.K.

HE WENT TO THE PANAMA CANAL. HE WENT TO THE PANAMA CANAL.

I WOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO I WOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THAT. THAT. IF YOU WANT TO BE WHERE THE

THAT. THAT. IF YOU WANT TO BE WHERE THE IF YOU WANT TO BE WHERE THE U.S. U.S.

GOVERNMENT WILL PROTECT YOU AND GOVERNMENT WILL PROTECT YOU AND DO THE MOST, IT IS CLEAR TO ME DO THE MOST, IT IS CLEAR TO ME YOU WANT TO BE FAVORING NORTH YOU WANT TO BE FAVORING NORTH AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA OVER ASIA. OVER ASIA. LISA: LISA: FIVE YEARS AGO, WHEN THE

OVER ASIA. OVER ASIA. LISA: LISA: FIVE YEARS AGO, WHEN THE FIVE YEARS AGO, WHEN THE PANDEMIC WAS RAGING, EVERYONE PANDEMIC WAS RAGING, EVERYONE WAS TALKING ABOUT WAS TALKING ABOUT DEGLOBALIZATION AND THAT YOU DEGLOBALIZATION AND THAT YOU HAD TO BUILD IN INEFFICIENCY HAD TO BUILD IN INEFFICIENCY AND SUPPLY CHAINS.

AND SUPPLY CHAINS.

NOW -- EVEN AS WE HAVE SEEN NOW -- EVEN AS WE HAVE SEEN ACCELERATION OF THIS TREND OF ACCELERATION OF THIS TREND OF BEING MORE REGIONAL. BEING MORE REGIONAL.

IS THERE STILL AN INFLATIONARY IS THERE STILL AN INFLATIONARY OVERLAY TO THIS THAT IS THE OVERLAY TO THIS THAT IS THE REVERSE OF WHAT GLOBALIZATION REVERSE OF WHAT GLOBALIZATION PROVIDED? PROVIDED? PETER: PETER:

PROVIDED? PROVIDED? PETER: PETER:

THERE WILL BE SOME PRESSURE ON THERE WILL BE SOME PRESSURE ON COMMODITY PRICES. COMMODITY PRICES.

COMMODITY PRICES. COMMODITY PRICES.

IF WE START BUILDING THESE IF WE START BUILDING THESE FACTORIES, BUILD OUT THE ENERGY FACTORIES, BUILD OUT THE ENERGY OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION WE OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION WE NEED, WE WILL SEE LEVELS OF NEED, WE WILL SEE LEVELS OF INFLATION THAT WILL BE HIGHER. INFLATION THAT WILL BE HIGHER.

IT WILL NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL. IT WILL NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL.

OVER TIME, WE ALSO BUILT A MORE OVER TIME, WE ALSO BUILT A MORE SECURE SYSTEM. SECURE SYSTEM. IF YOU ARE NOT SHIPPING THINGS

SECURE SYSTEM. SECURE SYSTEM. IF YOU ARE NOT SHIPPING THINGS IF YOU ARE NOT SHIPPING THINGS LONGWAYS -- I REALLY BELIEVE LONGWAYS -- I REALLY BELIEVE THIS CONCEPT OF PRODUCTION FOR THIS CONCEPT OF PRODUCTION FOR SECURITY WILL REPLACE CSG.

SECURITY WILL REPLACE CSG. WHEN WE THINK ABOUT WHEN WE THINK ABOUT SUSTAINABILITY, IT WILL BE MUCH SUSTAINABILITY, IT WILL BE MUCH MORE WHAT DO WE NEED AT THE MORE WHAT DO WE NEED AT THE BASE? BASE?

AND THIS WILL SOUND WONKY, BUT AND THIS WILL SOUND WONKY, BUT I LOOK AT MY'S LAW -- MA I LOOK AT MY'S LAW -- MA ZLOV'S HIERARCHY OF NEEDS. ZLOV'S HIERARCHY OF NEEDS.

YOU NEED SHELTER AND BASIC YOU NEED SHELTER AND BASIC NEEDS BEFORE WE MOVED TO SELF NEEDS BEFORE WE MOVED TO SELF ACTUALIZATION. ACTUALIZATION. WE ARE AT SELF ACTUALIZATION

ACTUALIZATION. ACTUALIZATION. WE ARE AT SELF ACTUALIZATION WE ARE AT SELF ACTUALIZATION AND WE REALIZED OUR BASE AND WE REALIZED OUR BASE ERODED. ERODED.

WE CANNOT PRODUCE THE THINGS WE WE CANNOT PRODUCE THE THINGS WE NEED. NEED. HOW CAN YOU BE SAFE AND

NEED. NEED. HOW CAN YOU BE SAFE AND HOW CAN YOU BE SAFE AND SUSTAINABLE IF YOU ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE IF YOU ARE NOT PRODUCING SOME LEVEL OF BASIC PRODUCING SOME LEVEL OF BASIC NECESSITIES? NECESSITIES?

I THINK THAT IS WHERE WE ARE I THINK THAT IS WHERE WE ARE HEADED. HEADED. CAPITAL IS ALREADY FLOWING INTO

HEADED. HEADED. CAPITAL IS ALREADY FLOWING INTO CAPITAL IS ALREADY FLOWING INTO IT. IT.

CORPORATIONS WILL ADOPT IT. CORPORATIONS WILL ADOPT IT.

I THINK EUROPE WILL ADOPT IT. I THINK EUROPE WILL ADOPT IT.

ULTIMATELY, THEY WILL GET ULTIMATELY, THEY WILL GET DRAGGED IN, WHERE YOU HAVE TO DRAGGED IN, WHERE YOU HAVE TO PRODUCE YOUR BASIC NECESSITIES PRODUCE YOUR BASIC NECESSITIES YOURSELF AND WORK WITH CLOSE YOURSELF AND WORK WITH CLOSE ALLIES, BECAUSE YOU CANNOT JUST ALLIES, BECAUSE YOU CANNOT JUST RELY ON CHINA TO BE YOUR RELY ON CHINA TO BE YOUR FRIEND.

FRIEND. LISA: LISA: PETER TCHIR, THANK YOU FOR PETER TCHIR, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. BEING WITH US.

PETER TCHIR OF ACADEMY PETER TCHIR OF ACADEMY SECURITIES. SECURITIES. I REMEMBER A YEAR AGO WHEN

SECURITIES. SECURITIES. I REMEMBER A YEAR AGO WHEN I REMEMBER A YEAR AGO WHEN AIPAC WAS BEING HELD IN PERU, AIPAC WAS BEING HELD IN PERU, AND THERE WAS A REAL QUESTION AND THERE WAS A REAL QUESTION OVER WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE OVER WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE WAR RIGHT NOW? WAR RIGHT NOW?

IS IT GOING TO BE CHINA OR THE IS IT GOING TO BE CHINA OR THE UNITED STATES? UNITED STATES? FROM ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT

UNITED STATES? UNITED STATES? FROM ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT FROM ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT RESERVES OF COPPER, A TON OF RESERVES OF COPPER, A TON OF MINERALS THAT ARE ESSENTIAL TO MINERALS THAT ARE ESSENTIAL TO OUR MODERN WORLD.

OUR MODERN WORLD. DANI: DANI: I REMEMBER WHEN YOU WERE THERE I REMEMBER WHEN YOU WERE THERE AND THEY'RE REPORTING YOU DID AND THEY'RE REPORTING YOU DID IS CHINA THAT WAS SO.

IS CHINA THAT WAS SO. PRESENT THERE. PRESENT THERE.

THEY ARE PRESENT THERE, PRESENT THEY ARE PRESENT THERE, PRESENT IN AFRICA. IN AFRICA. LISA: LISA: THERE WERE CHINESE FLAGS.

IN AFRICA. IN AFRICA. LISA: LISA: THERE WERE CHINESE FLAGS.

THERE WERE CHINESE FLAGS.

XI CAME, HE WAS GOING DOWN THE XI CAME, HE WAS GOING DOWN THE BOULEVARD, EVERYTHING STOPPED. BOULEVARD, EVERYTHING STOPPED.

REAL DIFFERENCE IN TONE. REAL DIFFERENCE IN TONE.

COMING UP, WE TALK MORE ABOUT COMING UP, WE TALK MORE ABOUT EMERGING MARKETS AS WELL AS EMERGING MARKETS AS WELL AS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WITH ED ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WITH ED AL-HUSSAINY OF COLUMBIA AL-HUSSAINY OF COLUMBIA THREADNEEDLE. THREADNEEDLE. ♪ ♪

THREADNEEDLE. THREADNEEDLE. ♪ ♪

LISA: LISA: WE ARE HEADING INTO THE OPEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE OPEN ABOUT THREE HOURS AWAY.

ABOUT THREE HOURS AWAY. WE SEE THE FUTURES ARE LOWER WE SEE THE FUTURES ARE LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD AFTER THE ACROSS THE BOARD AFTER THE BIGGEST ONE-DAY GAIN GOING BACK BIGGEST ONE-DAY GAIN GOING BACK SIX WEEKS. SIX WEEKS.

NASDAQ LOWER DESPITE THE GAINS NASDAQ LOWER DESPITE THE GAINS WE ARE SEEING ON THE LIKES OF WE ARE SEEING ON THE LIKES OF ALPHABET. ALPHABET. WHAT YOU SAW YESTERDAY WITH THE

ALPHABET. ALPHABET. WHAT YOU SAW YESTERDAY WITH THE WHAT YOU SAW YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST TWO-DAY POP GOING BACK BIGGEST TWO-DAY POP GOING BACK TO MAY. TO MAY.

OPTIMISM AROUND A RATE CUT. OPTIMISM AROUND A RATE CUT.

YOU SEE A BIT OF THAT OPTIMISM YOU SEE A BIT OF THAT OPTIMISM FADING BUT BELOW WHERE THEY FADING BUT BELOW WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WERE YESTERDAY. TWO-YEAR YIELDS GETTING A BIT

WERE YESTERDAY. WERE YESTERDAY. TWO-YEAR YIELDS GETTING A BIT TWO-YEAR YIELDS GETTING A BIT AFTER MARY DALY WAS INCLINED TO AFTER MARY DALY WAS INCLINED TO CUT RATES NEXT MONTH.

CUT RATES NEXT MONTH. SHE TENDS TO AGREE WITH JAY SHE TENDS TO AGREE WITH JAY POWELL. POWELL.

JOHN WILLIAMS ALSO FOR A CUT. JOHN WILLIAMS ALSO FOR A CUT.

I'M COUNTING EACH OF THESE. I'M COUNTING EACH OF THESE.

LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY EVENLY LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY EVENLY SPLIT WITH A LOT OF UNDECIDEDS. SPLIT WITH A LOT OF UNDECIDEDS.

PEOPLE ARE SAYING THIS IS UP TO PEOPLE ARE SAYING THIS IS UP TO JAY POWELL TO DECIDE IF THIS IS JAY POWELL TO DECIDE IF THIS IS A FED CUT OR FED HOLD. A FED CUT OR FED HOLD. DANI:

DANI: WHICH IS WHY MARY DALY WAS SO WHICH IS WHY MARY DALY WAS SO IMPORTANT. IMPORTANT.

WE HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM WE HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM CONSENSUSBUILDING. CONSENSUSBUILDING.

CONSENSUSBUILDING. CONSENSUSBUILDING.

MARY DALY, INTERVIEW WITH THE MARY DALY, INTERVIEW WITH THE JOURNAL SHE SAID IS A GOOD JOURNAL SHE SAID IS A GOOD THING, A HEALTHY THING. THING, A HEALTHY THING.

YOU DO NOT WANT GROUPTHINK. YOU DO NOT WANT GROUPTHINK.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT PROTECTS THE FED OR EXPOSE THEM PROTECTS THE FED OR EXPOSE THEM WHEN YOU HAVE A TRUMP PIC AT WHEN YOU HAVE A TRUMP PIC AT THE TOP OF THE HELM. THE TOP OF THE HELM. LISA: LISA:

AND IF IT GIV GUIDANCE. AND IF IT GIV GUIDANCE.

WE ARE THREE HOURS AWAY FROM WE ARE THREE HOURS AWAY FROM THE CASH OPEN. THE CASH OPEN. LET'S GET SOME MORNING MOVERS LET'S GET SOME MORNING MOVERS WITH VONNIE QUINN.

WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE: VONNIE: IT'S ABOUT AI TODAY.

IT'S ABOUT AI TODAY. TVU VERSUS GPU. TVU VERSUS GPU.

NVIDIA WAS GOOD AT MAKING THIS NVIDIA WAS GOOD AT MAKING THIS PROCESSING UNIT. PROCESSING UNIT.

PROCESSING UNIT. PROCESSING UNIT.

NOW MEDA IS IN TALKS TO BY NOW MEDA IS IN TALKS TO BY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF TV BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF TV NEWS FROM GOOGLE. NEWS FROM GOOGLE.

-- TPU'S FROM GOOGLE. -- TPU'S FROM GOOGLE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE END OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE END OF DOMINANCE FOR NVIDIA. DOMINANCE FOR NVIDIA. MAYBE.

MAYBE. SHARES ARE SUFFERING, PREMARKET SHARES ARE SUFFERING, PREMARKET DOWN 4%. DOWN 4%.

THE GOOGLE PARENT OF MORE THAN THE GOOGLE PARENT OF MORE THAN 4%. 4%. LET'S SWITCH IT UP BECAUSE

4%. 4%. LET'S SWITCH IT UP BECAUSE LET'S SWITCH IT UP BECAUSE WE'RE LOOKING AT ALIBABA.

WE'RE LOOKING AT ALIBABA. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE RELAUNCH OF ALL OF ITS AI TOOLS RELAUNCH OF ALL OF ITS AI TOOLS AND IS PUSHING TO THAT.

AND IS PUSHING TO THAT. ITS RIVALRY WITH TENCENT AND ITS RIVALRY WITH TENCENT AND BAIDU. BAIDU. ADR ARE UP 4.5%.

ADR ARE UP 4.5%. REVENUE WAS UP 5% BUT THE CLOUD REVENUE WAS UP 5% BUT THE CLOUD INTELLIGENCE REVENUE UP 34%.

INTELLIGENCE REVENUE UP 34%. MASSIVE GROWTH IN THE QUARTER.

MASSIVE GROWTH IN THE QUARTER. YOU MIGHT THINK OF THIS AS A YOU MIGHT THINK OF THIS AS A MEMORY CHIP COMPANY, CARRYING MEMORY CHIP COMPANY, CARRYING AROUND THE THUMB DRIVES AND SO AROUND THE THUMB DRIVES AND SO ON. ON.

THIS WAS BOUGHT BY WESTERN THIS WAS BOUGHT BY WESTERN DIGITAL IN 2016 AND SPUN OUT DIGITAL IN 2016 AND SPUN OUT THIS FEBRUARY. THIS FEBRUARY. UP 500 30% YEAR-TO-DATE TO DATE

THIS FEBRUARY. THIS FEBRUARY. UP 500 30% YEAR-TO-DATE TO DATE UP 500 30% YEAR-TO-DATE TO DATE SINCE IT WAS SPUN OUT.

SINCE IT WAS SPUN OUT. UP TO PERCENT BECAUSE IT'S UP TO PERCENT BECAUSE IT'S JOINING THE S&P 500.

JOINING THE S&P 500. THERE HAS TO BE AN AI PORTION THERE HAS TO BE AN AI PORTION TO THIS. TO THIS.

IN TALKS OF THE BUILDOUT OF IN TALKS OF THE BUILDOUT OF LARGE-SCALE DATA CENTERS AS LARGE-SCALE DATA CENTERS AS WELL. WELL. THAT IS HELPING THIS MEMORY

WELL. WELL. THAT IS HELPING THIS MEMORY THAT IS HELPING THIS MEMORY CHIPMAKER TODAY.

CHIPMAKER TODAY. LISA: LISA: ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING TENSIONS RISING BETWEEN CHINA TENSIONS RISING BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN OVER THE STATUS OF AND JAPAN OVER THE STATUS OF TAIWAN. TAIWAN.

PRESIDENT TRUMP HOLDING BACK TO PRESIDENT TRUMP HOLDING BACK TO BACK CALLS WITH THE LEADERS OF BACK CALLS WITH THE LEADERS OF BOTH COUNTRIES. BOTH COUNTRIES. ANY SIGN THE U.S.

BOTH COUNTRIES. BOTH COUNTRIES. ANY SIGN THE U.S.

ANY SIGN THE U.S. ALIGNING WITH JAPAN COULD END ALIGNING WITH JAPAN COULD END UP DERAILING ITS TRADE TRUCE UP DERAILING ITS TRADE TRUCE WITH CHINA. WITH CHINA.

NVIDIA UNDER PRESSURE FOLLOWING NVIDIA UNDER PRESSURE FOLLOWING REPORTS THAT META IS IN SPEND REPORTS THAT META IS IN SPEND BILLIONS ON GOOGLE'S AI CHIPS. BILLIONS ON GOOGLE'S AI CHIPS.

INFORMATION REPORTING META INFORMATION REPORTING META PLANS TO USE GOOGLE'S PLANS TO USE GOOGLE'S PROCESSING UNITS BEGINNING IN PROCESSING UNITS BEGINNING IN 2027. 2027. TPU VERSUS GPU? TPU VERSUS GPU?

2027. 2027. TPU VERSUS GPU? TPU VERSUS GPU?

DANI: DANI: TPU ARE GOOGLE'S CHIPS AND TPU ARE GOOGLE'S CHIPS AND VERY EFFICIENT. VERY EFFICIENT.

NVIDIA'S GP'S WERE BUILT AS NVIDIA'S GP'S WERE BUILT AS GRAPHICS PROCESSORS SO THEY DO GRAPHICS PROCESSORS SO THEY DO ARE TASKED BUT A LITTLE MORE ARE TASKED BUT A LITTLE MORE CLUNKY AND TAKE A MORE ENERGY. CLUNKY AND TAKE A MORE ENERGY.

YOU CAN SAY GOOGLE IS BETTER YOU CAN SAY GOOGLE IS BETTER BUT THERE'S A LOT OF LOCKED-IN BUT THERE'S A LOT OF LOCKED-IN SYNDROME AND IS HARD TO CHANGE SYNDROME AND IS HARD TO CHANGE CLOUD PROVIDERS. CLOUD PROVIDERS.

CLOUD PROVIDERS. CLOUD PROVIDERS.

PEOPLE ALREADY USE THIS DATA PEOPLE ALREADY USE THIS DATA CENTERS WITH NVIDIA CHIPS. CENTERS WITH NVIDIA CHIPS. LISA:

LISA: THERE IS A ONE-TWO PUNCH WITH THERE IS A ONE-TWO PUNCH WITH OPENAI AND THE QUESTION OF OPENAI AND THE QUESTION OF WHETHER GOOGLE COULD WHETHER GOOGLE COULD POTENTIALLY SUPERSEDE IT IN POTENTIALLY SUPERSEDE IT IN TERMS OF GEMINI 3.

TERMS OF GEMINI 3. THIS NEXT STORY BUT NVIDIA THIS NEXT STORY BUT NVIDIA VERSUS GOOGLE AND THE IDEA OF VERSUS GOOGLE AND THE IDEA OF GOOGLE SELLING CHIPS TO META GOOGLE SELLING CHIPS TO META REITERATES THIS FEELING OF REITERATES THIS FEELING OF DISRUPTION. DISRUPTION. IT IS NOT THE END OF THE STORY.

DISRUPTION. DISRUPTION. IT IS NOT THE END OF THE STORY.

IT IS NOT THE END OF THE STORY. THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING AND THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING AND WE ARE NOT SEEN THE FULL WE ARE NOT SEEN THE FULL ITERATION. ITERATION. DANI:

DANI: THE MARKET HAS NOT DECIDED WHO THE MARKET HAS NOT DECIDED WHO THE WINNER IS. THE WINNER IS.

DAN IVES PUT OUT A NOTE WITH DAN IVES PUT OUT A NOTE WITH HIS TOP AI PICKS. HIS TOP AI PICKS.

IT IS LITERALLY ALL OF THEM. IT IS LITERALLY ALL OF THEM.

IF ANYTHING, THE MARKET IS MORE IF ANYTHING, THE MARKET IS MORE DISCERNING. DISCERNING. ALPHABET COMING IN AS A

DISCERNING. DISCERNING. ALPHABET COMING IN AS A ALPHABET COMING IN AS A CHALLENGER IS INTERESTING.

CHALLENGER IS INTERESTING. THEY HAVE SO MANY CORPORATE THEY HAVE SO MANY CORPORATE RELATIONSHIPS. RELATIONSHIPS.

THEY HAVE BETTER BRAND POWER THEY HAVE BETTER BRAND POWER THAN OPENAI DOES. THAN OPENAI DOES.

WHO IS TO SAY IF THEY CAN GET WHO IS TO SAY IF THEY CAN GET PEOPLE TO SWITCH OVER THEY WILL PEOPLE TO SWITCH OVER THEY WILL NOT BE THE ULTIMATE WINNER. NOT BE THE ULTIMATE WINNER.

LISA: LISA: SOFTBANK SHARES TUMBLING TO IT SOFTBANK SHARES TUMBLING TO IT TOO AND HAVE FUN FLOW WITH TOO AND HAVE FUN FLOW WITH INVESTOR CONCERNS COMING OUT INVESTOR CONCERNS COMING OUT AFTER OPENAI WITH RESPECT TO AFTER OPENAI WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIALLY ALPHABET'S GEMINI 3 POTENTIALLY ALPHABET'S GEMINI 3 SUPERSEDING OPENAI, WHICH IS SUPERSEDING OPENAI, WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON WHY PEOPLE PART OF THE REASON WHY PEOPLE ARE WONDERING WHAT IS THIS

ARE WONDERING WHAT IS THIS ITERATION GOING TO LOOK LIKE.

ITERATION GOING TO LOOK LIKE. ED AL-HUSSAINY CASTING DOUBT ON ED AL-HUSSAINY CASTING DOUBT ON THE PRODUCTIVITY BOOM.

THE PRODUCTIVITY BOOM. "AI WILL LEAD TO AN "AI WILL LEAD TO AN ACCELERATION AND AUTOMATION ACCELERATION AND AUTOMATION WHICH HAS BEEN AN FEATURE OF WHICH HAS BEEN AN FEATURE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH.

ECONOMIC GROWTH. AI WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AI WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AGGREGATE ECONOMIC AGGREGATE ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY." PRODUCTIVITY."

WHY DO YOU THINK THAT'S THE WHY DO YOU THINK THAT'S THE CASE WHEN PEOPLE ARE SAYING CASE WHEN PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT IS WHEN THIS WILL START TO THAT IS WHEN THIS WILL START TO PAY OFF? PAY OFF? THIS WILL BE DISINFLATIONARY

PAY OFF? PAY OFF? THIS WILL BE DISINFLATIONARY THIS WILL BE DISINFLATIONARY AND NOT NECESSARILY THE AND NOT NECESSARILY THE INVESTMENT AND NUTS AND BOLTS INVESTMENT AND NUTS AND BOLTS OF THE PHYSICAL WORLD.

OF THE PHYSICAL WORLD. ED: ED: WE HAVE SEEN THESE WAVES WE HAVE SEEN THESE WAVES BEFORE. BEFORE.

IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSLATE TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION WHICH WE HAVE SEEN INNOVATION WHICH WE HAVE SEEN CONTINUOUSLY OVER THE PAST FOUR CONTINUOUSLY OVER THE PAST FOUR YEARS AND AGGREGATE ECONOMIC YEARS AND AGGREGATE ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY. PRODUCTIVITY. IT REQUIRES US TO REORGANIZE

PRODUCTIVITY. PRODUCTIVITY. IT REQUIRES US TO REORGANIZE IT REQUIRES US TO REORGANIZE HOW WE MAKE ECONOMIC WIDGETS.

HOW WE MAKE ECONOMIC WIDGETS.

LISA: LISA: YOU ARE SAYING THERE ARE YOU ARE SAYING THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FIXED IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FIXED INCOME WORLD IN TERMS OF THE INCOME WORLD IN TERMS OF THE ULTIMATE PAYOFF?

ULTIMATE PAYOFF? IT COMES TO NOT ONLY THE IT COMES TO NOT ONLY THE CORPORATE DEBT MARKET FUELING A CORPORATE DEBT MARKET FUELING A AND FUNDING THIS BUT THE AND FUNDING THIS BUT THE EXPECTED INFLATION RATE, KIND EXPECTED INFLATION RATE, KIND OF GROWTH YOU CAN SEE ON THE OF GROWTH YOU CAN SEE ON THE HEELS OF AI. HEELS OF AI.

WHERE YOU THINK THE BIGGEST WHERE YOU THINK THE BIGGEST MISUNDERSTANDING IS RIGHT NOW? MISUNDERSTANDING IS RIGHT NOW?

ED: ED: PART OF THE PROBLEM IS PART OF THE PROBLEM IS CHANNELING AND EXTORTING AMOUNT CHANNELING AND EXTORTING AMOUNT OF SAVINGS INTO THE AI OF SAVINGS INTO THE AI THEMATIC.

THEMATIC. IT WILL CANNIBALIZE THE CAPITAL IT WILL CANNIBALIZE THE CAPITAL AVAILABLE TO OTHER PARTS OF THE AVAILABLE TO OTHER PARTS OF THE ECONOMY, INCLUDING THE TREASURY ECONOMY, INCLUDING THE TREASURY MARKET. MARKET.

THE AI THEME HAS JUST COME TO THE AI THEME HAS JUST COME TO THE INVESTMENT GRADE MARKET THE INVESTMENT GRADE MARKET WHOLESALE. WHOLESALE. IT WILL BE WITH US FOR A NUMBER

WHOLESALE. WHOLESALE. IT WILL BE WITH US FOR A NUMBER IT WILL BE WITH US FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, NO DOUBT.

OF YEARS, NO DOUBT. IT STARTS TO LIFT YIELDS ACROSS IT STARTS TO LIFT YIELDS ACROSS THE BOARD AND STARTS TO MAKE THE BOARD AND STARTS TO MAKE COST OF CAPITAL MORE EXPENSIVE COST OF CAPITAL MORE EXPENSIVE FOR OTHER COMPANIES.

FOR OTHER COMPANIES. THAT COULD BE A DRAG ON GROWTH THAT COULD BE A DRAG ON GROWTH DOWN THE LINE. DOWN THE LINE.

DANI: DANI: THIS IS A REAL CROWDING OUT.

THIS IS A REAL CROWDING OUT. MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, THE WAY MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, THE WAY ENERGY IS USED. ENERGY IS USED.

WOULDN'T THAT BE A HEALTHY WOULDN'T THAT BE A HEALTHY THINK OF ALL OF A SUDDEN WE THINK OF ALL OF A SUDDEN WE DECIDE WE HAVE GONE TOO FAR AND DECIDE WE HAVE GONE TOO FAR AND AI BACKS UP ED THE SPENDING ON AI BACKS UP ED THE SPENDING ON AI BACKS UP -- AND THE SPENDING AI BACKS UP -- AND THE SPENDING ON AI BACKS UP? ON AI BACKS UP? ED: ED:

THAT COULD VERY WELL BE THE THAT COULD VERY WELL BE THE STORY. STORY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS HAPPEN IN

STORY. STORY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS HAPPEN IN WE HAVE SEEN THIS HAPPEN IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD.

OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD. CHINA HAS GONE TOO FAR AND WE CHINA HAS GONE TOO FAR AND WE ARE SEEING DEFLATION BECAUSE OF ARE SEEING DEFLATION BECAUSE OF THAT CAPACITY IN CHINA.

THAT CAPACITY IN CHINA. IT'S EARLY IN THE STORY BUT ONE IT'S EARLY IN THE STORY BUT ONE OF THE RISKS IS WE HAVE OF THE RISKS IS WE HAVE INVESTED AN EXTRAORDINARY INVESTED AN EXTRAORDINARY AMOUNT OF CAPITAL.

AMOUNT OF CAPITAL.

SOME STARTING WITH A 'T' IN THE SOME STARTING WITH A 'T' IN THE AI THEMATIC AND SOME OF THAT AI THEMATIC AND SOME OF THAT DEPRECIATES RAPIDLY AND IS DEPRECIATES RAPIDLY AND IS STRANDED AND DOES NOT STRANDED AND DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH. CONTRIBUTE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH.

DANI: DANI: WHAT HAPPENS TO PRIVATE ASSET WHAT HAPPENS TO PRIVATE ASSET PLAYERS WHO STARTED TO POUR PLAYERS WHO STARTED TO POUR MONEY INTO THIS?

MONEY INTO THIS? WE ARE NOT TAKING AI RISK, WE WE ARE NOT TAKING AI RISK, WE ARE TAKING META CHRIS CORE ARE TAKING META CHRIS CORE ORACLE RISK -- RISK OR ORACLE ORACLE RISK -- RISK OR ORACLE RISK. RISK. ED: ED:

IS QUITE VULNERABLE. IS QUITE VULNERABLE.

WE ARE STARTING WITH CORPORATE WE ARE STARTING WITH CORPORATE BALANCE SHEETS THAT ARE BALANCE SHEETS THAT ARE EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG. EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG.

EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG. EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG.

THESE ARE HIGH-QUALITY, THESE ARE HIGH-QUALITY, HIGH-GRADE ISSUERS. HIGH-GRADE ISSUERS.

HIGH-GRADE ISSUERS. HIGH-GRADE ISSUERS.

THE CORPORATE BOND MARKET, THE THE CORPORATE BOND MARKET, THE INVESTMENT GRADE MARKET WAS INVESTMENT GRADE MARKET WAS PRACTICALLY INVENTED FOR THIS. PRACTICALLY INVENTED FOR THIS.

IT IS THERE TO FIND THESE IT IS THERE TO FIND THESE THEMES. THEMES. IT WILL BE A WHILE UNTIL WE CAN

THEMES. THEMES. IT WILL BE A WHILE UNTIL WE CAN IT WILL BE A WHILE UNTIL WE CAN GET TO A POINT WHERE IT STARTS GET TO A POINT WHERE IT STARTS TO DEGRADE AND WE SEE WHETHER TO DEGRADE AND WE SEE WHETHER IT HAS AN IMPACT ON EARNINGS.

IT HAS AN IMPACT ON EARNINGS. THE FACT THAT THE STORY IS SO THE FACT THAT THE STORY IS SO DEEPLY INTERCONNECTED IS A DEEPLY INTERCONNECTED IS A VULNERABILITY. VULNERABILITY.

THAT IS NOT A NEW THING BUT IT THAT IS NOT A NEW THING BUT IT WILL BE WITH US FOR SOME TIME. WILL BE WITH US FOR SOME TIME.

LISA: LISA: HOW MUCH OF A LIABILITY IS THIS HOW MUCH OF A LIABILITY IS THIS FOR THE TREASURY MARKET?

FOR THE TREASURY MARKET? ED: ED: A LITTLE BIT. A LITTLE BIT.

WE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WE ARE FOCUSED ON THE NARCISSISM SMALL DIFFERENCES. NARCISSISM SMALL DIFFERENCES.

WHAT IS THE FED GOING TO DO IN WHAT IS THE FED GOING TO DO IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS? A COUPLE OF WEEKS?

THE AI THEME DOES NOT AFFECT THE AI THEME DOES NOT AFFECT THAT IN A MEANINGFUL WAY. THAT IN A MEANINGFUL WAY.

ONE OF THE CORE QUESTIONS FOR ONE OF THE CORE QUESTIONS FOR THE FED IS, SHOULD WE ASSUME THE FED IS, SHOULD WE ASSUME THE WAY GREENSPAN DID IN THE THE WAY GREENSPAN DID IN THE MID-1990'S THAT PRODUCTIVITY IS MID-1990'S THAT PRODUCTIVITY IS RISING? RISING?

RISING? RISING?

THAT'S A LY LICENSE TO KEEP THAT'S A LY LICENSE TO KEEP MONETARY POLICY TIGHTER. MONETARY POLICY TIGHTER.

IF THEY MAKE A MISTAKE -- IF THEY MAKE A MISTAKE -- GREENSPAN GOT LUCKY AND GOT A GREENSPAN GOT LUCKY AND GOT A RIGHT BUT IF WE MAKE A MISTAKE, RIGHT BUT IF WE MAKE A MISTAKE, THAT LEADS TO LOWER GROWTH AND THAT LEADS TO LOWER GROWTH AND TIGHTER POLICY AND LOWER TIGHTER POLICY AND LOWER INFLATION IN THE COMING YEARS. INFLATION IN THE COMING YEARS.

THAT WILL BE REALLY INTERESTING THAT WILL BE REALLY INTERESTING -- A REALLY INTERESTING DEBATE -- A REALLY INTERESTING DEBATE IN 2026 AND BEYOND. IN 2026 AND BEYOND.

LISA: LISA: ARE YOU EXPECTING THIS TO BE ARE YOU EXPECTING THIS TO BE ESSENTIALLY DISINFLATIONARY FOR ESSENTIALLY DISINFLATIONARY FOR THE WRONG REASONS?

THE WRONG REASONS? IT COULD ACTUALLY SLOW GROWTH.

IT COULD ACTUALLY SLOW GROWTH.

CORPORATE -- ISSUANCE -- CORPORATE -- ISSUANCE -- CORPORATE DEBT ISSUANCE COULD CORPORATE DEBT ISSUANCE COULD SUFFER BECAUSE IT'S NOT THERE SUFFER BECAUSE IT'S NOT THERE TO FUEL THE R PROFITS. TO FUEL THE R PROFITS. ED: ED:

IF PRODUCTIVITY IS VERY IF PRODUCTIVITY IS VERY CONCENTRATED AND PART OF THE CONCENTRATED AND PART OF THE ECONOMY THAT POTENTIALLY ECONOMY THAT POTENTIALLY DELIVER EARNINGS TO THESE DELIVER EARNINGS TO THESE COMPANIES, IT'S FINE. COMPANIES, IT'S FINE.

IF PRODUCTIVITY BECOMES MORE IF PRODUCTIVITY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND THE ECONOMY STARTS DIFFUSE AND THE ECONOMY STARTS TO LIFT, THAT'S A LICENSE FOR TO LIFT, THAT'S A LICENSE FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES ACROSS HIGHER INTEREST RATES ACROSS THE BOARD. THE BOARD. THAT'S A LICENSE FOR A

THE BOARD. THE BOARD. THAT'S A LICENSE FOR A THAT'S A LICENSE FOR A HEALTHIER GROWTH STORY.

HEALTHIER GROWTH STORY. THAT IS WHAT WE SAW THROUGH THE THAT IS WHAT WE SAW THROUGH THE MID TO THOUSANDS.

MID TO THOUSANDS. GREAT OUTCOMES IN TERMS OF GREAT OUTCOMES IN TERMS OF INFLATION. INFLATION.

FISCAL INTEREST RATE STABILITY FISCAL INTEREST RATE STABILITY AND SO ON. AND SO ON. THE CHALLENGE FOR THE FED IS IF THE CHALLENGE FOR THE FED IS IF WE MAKE WRONG ASSUMPTIONS IN WE MAKE WRONG ASSUMPTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM, WE PUT THAT THE SHORT TERM, WE PUT THAT HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY STORY INTO HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY STORY INTO OUR STRATEGY AT THE MOMENT, WE OUR STRATEGY AT THE MOMENT, WE COULD MAKE A BUCK STRONGER CASE

COULD MAKE A BUCK STRONGER CASE FOR TIGHTER POLICY.

FOR TIGHTER POLICY. THAT WOULD BE A MISTAKE AT THE THAT WOULD BE A MISTAKE AT THE STATES. STATES. LISA: LISA:

WHAT IS YOUR CONVICTION HEADING WHAT IS YOUR CONVICTION HEADING INTO YEAR END? INTO YEAR END? ED: ED:

WITH RESPECT INTEREST RATES? WITH RESPECT INTEREST RATES?

WE HAVE A STARTING LEVEL OF WE HAVE A STARTING LEVEL OF ADJUSTED YIELDS ACROSS THE ADJUSTED YIELDS ACROSS THE BOARD THAT ARE QUITE HEALTHY. BOARD THAT ARE QUITE HEALTHY.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CORPORATE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CORPORATE DEBT MARKET WE ARE FINANCING DEBT MARKET WE ARE FINANCING UNDERWRITING THE STORY AND UNDERWRITING THE STORY AND CORPORATE SPREADS ARE EXTRA CORPORATE SPREADS ARE EXTRA NEARLY TIGHT. NEARLY TIGHT. THERE'S A LOT MORE ROOM FOR THE

NEARLY TIGHT. NEARLY TIGHT. THERE'S A LOT MORE ROOM FOR THE THERE'S A LOT MORE ROOM FOR THE SPREADS TO WIDEN AND A LOT MORE SPREADS TO WIDEN AND A LOT MORE ROOM FOR REAL INTEREST RATES TO ROOM FOR REAL INTEREST RATES TO COME DOWN IN THE COURSE OF THE COME DOWN IN THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS.

NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS.

DANI: DANI: WHAT WOULD IT TAKE FOR SPREADS WHAT WOULD IT TAKE FOR SPREADS TO WIDEN BECAUSE THE MARKET IS TO WIDEN BECAUSE THE MARKET IS FLUSH WITH CASH AND IT FEELS FLUSH WITH CASH AND IT FEELS LIKE EVERY SINGLE AUCTION, LIKE EVERY SINGLE AUCTION, EVERY DEBT ISSUANCE, THERE IS EVERY DEBT ISSUANCE, THERE IS SO MUCH DEMAND THAT SPREADS SO MUCH DEMAND THAT SPREADS EVEN WHEN THEY WIDEN TO 70 --

EVEN WHEN THEY WIDEN TO 70 -- NOTHING CRAZY WHEN YOU SEE NOTHING CRAZY WHEN YOU SEE WIDENING. WIDENING. ED: ED:

ABSOLUTELY. ABSOLUTELY. I HAVE NO IDEA. I HAVE NO IDEA.

ALL I KNOW IS AT THE MOMENT ALL I KNOW IS AT THE MOMENT INVESTORS ARE NOT BEING INVESTORS ARE NOT BEING COMPENSATED FOR A LOT OF THE COMPENSATED FOR A LOT OF THE RISKS THEY ARE TAKING, RISKS THEY ARE TAKING, PARTICULARLY IN WEAKER BALANCE PARTICULARLY IN WEAKER BALANCE SHEETS. SHEETS. HOW QUICKLY THAT THE GREEKS

SHEETS. SHEETS. HOW QUICKLY THAT THE GREEKS HOW QUICKLY THAT THE GREEKS ULTIMATELY IS GOING TO BE THE ULTIMATELY IS GOING TO BE THE KEY PART OF THAT NARRATIVE FOR KEY PART OF THAT NARRATIVE FOR NEXT YEAR. NEXT YEAR.

MOST IMPORTANT LINK, WE NEED A MOST IMPORTANT LINK, WE NEED A SHOCK TO OUR BELIEFS. SHOCK TO OUR BELIEFS.

THAT ALWAYS HAPPENS. THAT ALWAYS HAPPENS.

THERE ARE DEEP STORIES EMBEDDED THERE ARE DEEP STORIES EMBEDDED IN THE WAY WE PRICE THE IN THE WAY WE PRICE THE SPREADS.

SPREADS.

DEEP STORIES AROUND THE AI DEEP STORIES AROUND THE AI THEMATIC THAT ARE BEING THEMATIC THAT ARE BEING EMBEDDED IN HOW WE PRICE EMBEDDED IN HOW WE PRICE ASSETS.

ASSETS. SHOCKS TO STORIES LIKE THAT SHOCKS TO STORIES LIKE THAT ULTIMATELY ARE WHAT REORIENT ULTIMATELY ARE WHAT REORIENT CREDIT SPREADS. CREDIT SPREADS. LISA: LISA:

CREDIT SPREADS. CREDIT SPREADS. LISA: LISA:

ED, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US ED, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US AND HAVE A WONDERFUL AND HAVE A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING. THANKSGIVING. HOOSIER BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH

THANKSGIVING. THANKSGIVING. HOOSIER BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH HOOSIER BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE QUINN.

VONNIE: VONNIE: THE U.K. THE U.K.

CHANCELLOR IS GETTING READY TO CHANCELLOR IS GETTING READY TO OFFER HER NEW BUDGET TOMORROW. OFFER HER NEW BUDGET TOMORROW.

SHE WILL ANNOUNCE PLANS TO SHE WILL ANNOUNCE PLANS TO SLASH THE AMOUNT BRITAINS CAN SLASH THE AMOUNT BRITAINS CAN SAY BY $60,000. SAY BY $60,000. THE DECISION IS PART OF THE THE DECISION IS PART OF THE PUSH TO GET HOUSEHOLDS TO PUSH TO GET HOUSEHOLDS TO INVEST MORE IN U.K.

INVEST MORE IN U.K. STOCKS. STOCKS.

MARK ROWEN SAME PEOPLE HAVE MARK ROWEN SAME PEOPLE HAVE LOST THEIR MINDS OVER PRIVATE LOST THEIR MINDS OVER PRIVATE CREDIT. CREDIT. REJECTING THE NOTION ADDING

CREDIT. CREDIT. REJECTING THE NOTION ADDING REJECTING THE NOTION ADDING PRIVATE ASSETS TO RETIREMENT PRIVATE ASSETS TO RETIREMENT AND INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS CAN AND INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS CAN POSE A SYSTEMIC RISK.

POSE A SYSTEMIC RISK. MOST PRIVATE CREDIT HELD BY MOST PRIVATE CREDIT HELD BY INSURERS AND BY PENSION FUND INSURERS AND BY PENSION FUND BUYERS IS RATED INVESTMENT BUYERS IS RATED INVESTMENT GRADE. GRADE.

WHERE ARE LAYOFFS TAKING PLACE WHERE ARE LAYOFFS TAKING PLACE AT APPLE? AT APPLE? THE IPHONE MAKER HAS ELIMINATED

AT APPLE? AT APPLE? THE IPHONE MAKER HAS ELIMINATED THE IPHONE MAKER HAS ELIMINATED DOZENS OF ROLES IN ITS SALES DOZENS OF ROLES IN ITS SALES ORGANIZATION IN A BID TO ORGANIZATION IN A BID TO STREAMLINE THE WAY IT OFFERS STREAMLINE THE WAY IT OFFERS PRODUCTS TO BUSINESSES.

PRODUCTS TO BUSINESSES. THE POSITIONS INCLUDE A CAP THE POSITIONS INCLUDE A CAP MANAGERS AND STAFF WHO OPERATE MANAGERS AND STAFF WHO OPERATE APPLES BRIEFING CENTERS AND APPLES BRIEFING CENTERS AND PRODUCT DEMONSTRATIONS.

PRODUCT DEMONSTRATIONS. THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.

THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. LISA: LISA:

UP NEXT, LOOKING FOR THE EDGE UP NEXT, LOOKING FOR THE EDGE IN TRADE TALKS. IN TRADE TALKS.

>> THE QUESTION WE ARE >> THE QUESTION WE ARE NEGOTIATING IS HOW TO DO THINGS NEGOTIATING IS HOW TO DO THINGS BIGGER AND BETTER TOGETHER BIGGER AND BETTER TOGETHER BETWEEN OUR GREAT ECONOMIES.

BETWEEN OUR GREAT ECONOMIES. LISA: LISA:

KELLY ANN SHAW JOINING US NEXT. KELLY ANN SHAW JOINING US NEXT.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ." ." GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING.

." ." GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING.

♪ ♪ LISA: LISA: LESS THAN THREE HOURS FROM THE LESS THAN THREE HOURS FROM THE OPENING BELL AND YOU CAN SEE A OPENING BELL AND YOU CAN SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A REBOUND FROM LITTLE BIT OF A REBOUND FROM THE EARLIER LOWS IN FUTURES.

THE EARLIER LOWS IN FUTURES. SOFTER ACROSS THE BOARD.

SOFTER ACROSS THE BOARD. YOU CAN SEE A BIT OF MEANDERING YOU CAN SEE A BIT OF MEANDERING AFTER YESTERDAY'S RALLY.

AFTER YESTERDAY'S RALLY. MARGINALLY HIGHER ON THE LONG MARGINALLY HIGHER ON THE LONG END AND LOWER ON THE FRONT END.

END AND LOWER ON THE FRONT END. TAKE A LOOK AT THESE RETAIL TAKE A LOOK AT THESE RETAIL NAMES. NAMES.

WE ARE GETTING EARNINGS THIS WE ARE GETTING EARNINGS THIS MORNING. MORNING.

MORNING. MORNING.

COLES, -- BEST BUY, DELL, HP. COLES, -- BEST BUY, DELL, HP.

WE GOT BURLINGTON STORES. WE GOT BURLINGTON STORES.

IT SEEMED TO BE A BEAT WHICH IS IT SEEMED TO BE A BEAT WHICH IS THIS INTERESTING QUESTION OF, THIS INTERESTING QUESTION OF, IS A BEAT ON THESE DISCOUNT IS A BEAT ON THESE DISCOUNT RETAILERS A GOOD THING FOR THE RETAILERS A GOOD THING FOR THE CONSUMER OR IT BELIES A LITTLE CONSUMER OR IT BELIES A LITTLE CONCERN IN JOYFULNESS? CONCERN IN JOYFULNESS?

-- CHOICEFULNESS? -- CHOICEFULNESS? DANI: DANI:

MAYBE IT'S NOT A GREAT THING MAYBE IT'S NOT A GREAT THING BUT EXPECTATIONS WERE VERY HIGH BUT EXPECTATIONS WERE VERY HIGH FOR BURLINGTON. FOR BURLINGTON. SHARES DOWN VERY SHARPLY AND I

FOR BURLINGTON. FOR BURLINGTON. SHARES DOWN VERY SHARPLY AND I SHARES DOWN VERY SHARPLY AND I WONDER IF THAT HAS TO DO NOW WONDER IF THAT HAS TO DO NOW WITH WHAT THEY ARE SAYING ARE WITH WHAT THEY ARE SAYING ARE GREAT TRENDS BUT THE FACT THEIR GREAT TRENDS BUT THE FACT THEIR THIRD QUARTER COMP SALES WERE THIRD QUARTER COMP SALES WERE MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED, ABOUT MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED, ABOUT HALF WHAT THEY EXPECTED.

HALF WHAT THEY EXPECTED. MAYBE THEY DID NOT RAISE THINGS MAYBE THEY DID NOT RAISE THINGS ENOUGH. ENOUGH.

YEAH, YOU ARE A DISCOUNTER AND YEAH, YOU ARE A DISCOUNTER AND WE KNOW YOU ARE DOING WELL BUT WE KNOW YOU ARE DOING WELL BUT IF YOU DON'T SHOW UP AND RAISE IF YOU DON'T SHOW UP AND RAISE THINGS MORE THAN YOU HAVE WE THINGS MORE THAN YOU HAVE WE WILL PUNISH YOU. WILL PUNISH YOU. LISA: LISA:

THEY SAID TRAFFIC TO THE STORES THEY SAID TRAFFIC TO THE STORES FELL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER FELL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE BACK-TO-SCHOOL PERIOD THE BACK-TO-SCHOOL PERIOD DRIVEN BY UNSEASONABLY WARM DRIVEN BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN MAJOR MARKETS. TEMPERATURES IN MAJOR MARKETS.

THIS IS AFTER A DISCUSSION OVER THIS IS AFTER A DISCUSSION OVER HURRICANE SEASON. HURRICANE SEASON.

HURRICANE SEASON. HURRICANE SEASON.

WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR OTHER WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR OTHER RETAILER EARNINGS AS A RETAILER EARNINGS AS A FORWARD-LOOKING READ ON WHAT WE FORWARD-LOOKING READ ON WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT DURING THIS MIGHT EXPECT DURING THIS HOLIDAY SEASON. HOLIDAY SEASON. LOOKING FOR THE EDGE IN TRADE

HOLIDAY SEASON. HOLIDAY SEASON. LOOKING FOR THE EDGE IN TRADE LOOKING FOR THE EDGE IN TRADE TALKS. TALKS.

>> I THINK THE QUESTION WE ARE >> I THINK THE QUESTION WE ARE NEGOTIATING IS HOW TO MAKE THE NEGOTIATING IS HOW TO MAKE THE DEAL BIGGER, HOW TO MAKE IT DEAL BIGGER, HOW TO MAKE IT STRONGER, MORE INCLUSIVE, BRING STRONGER, MORE INCLUSIVE, BRING IN THE DIGITAL MARKETS ACT TO IN THE DIGITAL MARKETS ACT TO IMPROVE THAT FOR DIGITAL IMPROVE THAT FOR DIGITAL AMERICA. AMERICA.

HOW TO MAY BE DUE TO STEEL AND HOW TO MAY BE DUE TO STEEL AND ALUMINUM AND INCLUDE THAT. ALUMINUM AND INCLUDE THAT.

HOW TO DO THINGS BIGGER AND HOW TO DO THINGS BIGGER AND BETTER TOGETHER BETWEEN OUR BETTER TOGETHER BETWEEN OUR GREAT ECONOMIES. GREAT ECONOMIES. LISA: LISA:

GREAT ECONOMIES. GREAT ECONOMIES. LISA: LISA:

TALKS UNDERWAY TO PRESERVE TALKS UNDERWAY TO PRESERVE TRADE DEALS REACHED EARLY THIS TRADE DEALS REACHED EARLY THIS YEAR. YEAR. KELLY ANN SHAW WRITING, "THE

YEAR. YEAR. KELLY ANN SHAW WRITING, "THE KELLY ANN SHAW WRITING, "THE DETENTE BETWEEN THE U.S.

DETENTE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA IS CONTINUING TO HOLD AND CHINA IS CONTINUING TO HOLD AND EXPECT IT TO THROUGH NEW AND EXPECT IT TO THROUGH NEW YEAR'S. YEAR'S.

I'M SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE I'M SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE DURABILITY OF THE U.S.-EU TRADE DURABILITY OF THE U.S.-EU TRADE

DEAL." DEAL." LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT YOU MAKE LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT YOU MAKE OF THE IDEA OF NEGOTIATING A OF THE IDEA OF NEGOTIATING A DEAL FOR THE EU AND THE U.S.

DEAL FOR THE EU AND THE U.S. THAT IS SUPPOSEDLY WAS ALREADY THAT IS SUPPOSEDLY WAS ALREADY SET IN STONE. SET IN STONE.

KELLY ANN: KELLY ANN: GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING.

THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON. THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON.

THIS IS WHY I'M SKEPTICAL ABOUT THIS IS WHY I'M SKEPTICAL ABOUT THIS DEAL AND WATCHING IT VERY THIS DEAL AND WATCHING IT VERY CLOSELY. CLOSELY. THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE

CLOSELY. CLOSELY. THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE ANNOUNCED IN JULY THEY HAD ANNOUNCED IN JULY THEY HAD AGREED ON A PACKAGE OF MUTUAL AGREED ON A PACKAGE OF MUTUAL CONCESSIONS, INCLUDING TARIFF CONCESSIONS, INCLUDING TARIFF CUTS BOTH WAYS. CUTS BOTH WAYS.

THE U.S. THE U.S.

IMPLEMENTED THAT IMPLEMENTED THAT .THE EU ONLY INTRODUCED .THE EU ONLY INTRODUCED

.THE EU ONLY INTRODUCED .THE EU ONLY INTRODUCED LEGISLATION OF NO REAL HOPE OF LEGISLATION OF NO REAL HOPE OF PASSING IT IN THE SHORT TERM. PASSING IT IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE EU HAS YET TO CUT IT SINGLE THE EU HAS YET TO CUT IT SINGLE TERRIFYING. TERRIFYING. THE U.S. THE U.S. IS IN BRUSSELS.

TERRIFYING. TERRIFYING. THE U.S. THE U.S. IS IN BRUSSELS.

IS IN BRUSSELS. YOU HAVE AMBASSADOR GREER AND YOU HAVE AMBASSADOR GREER AND SECRETARY LUTNICK TALKING TO SECRETARY LUTNICK TALKING TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS.

THEIR COUNTERPARTS. WHAT SEEMS TO BE ON THE TABLE WHAT SEEMS TO BE ON THE TABLE IS A POTENTIAL DEAL ON STEEL IN IS A POTENTIAL DEAL ON STEEL IN EXCHANGE FOR CONCESSIONS ON THE EXCHANGE FOR CONCESSIONS ON THE DIGITAL SINGLE MARKET.

DIGITAL SINGLE MARKET. ON THE DMA AND THESE OTHER ON THE DMA AND THESE OTHER DIGITAL REGULATIONS.

DIGITAL REGULATIONS. THE EU SAID THEY ARE NOT THE EU SAID THEY ARE NOT BUDGING ON THAT.

BUDGING ON THAT. I DON'T EXPECT THE U.S.

I DON'T EXPECT THE U.S. TO BUDGE ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM TO BUDGE ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM EITHER WHICH MEANS AN IMPASSE.

EITHER WHICH MEANS AN IMPASSE. AS SOON AS THE PRESIDENT AS SOON AS THE PRESIDENT CONNECTS WITH THE FACT THEY CONNECTS WITH THE FACT THEY HAVE NOT CUT A TARIFF LINE, HAVE NOT CUT A TARIFF LINE, THAT WILL SPELL SERIOUS TROUBLE THAT WILL SPELL SERIOUS TROUBLE FOR THE RELATIONSHIP.

FOR THE RELATIONSHIP. LISA: LISA:

IT HAS BEEN FREIGHT FOR QUITE A IT HAS BEEN FREIGHT FOR QUITE A WHILE. WHILE. THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE

WHILE. WHILE. THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE U.S. U.S.

AND CHINA AND RIGHT NOW MORE AND CHINA AND RIGHT NOW MORE PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THAT PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THAT SIMPLY BECAUSE OF HOW ESSENTIAL SIMPLY BECAUSE OF HOW ESSENTIAL TRADE IS BETWEEN THESE TWO TRADE IS BETWEEN THESE TWO ECONOMIES WHEN IT COMES TO RARE ECONOMIES WHEN IT COMES TO RARE EARTH MINERALS AND A COUPLE OF EARTH MINERALS AND A COUPLE OF OTHER PRODUCTS. OTHER PRODUCTS. I'M WONDERING WHAT YOU MAKE OF

OTHER PRODUCTS. OTHER PRODUCTS. I'M WONDERING WHAT YOU MAKE OF I'M WONDERING WHAT YOU MAKE OF THE PHONE CALL BETWEEN THE PHONE CALL BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP AND PRESIDENT PRESIDENT TRUMP AND PRESIDENT XI AND A VISIT IN APRIL.

XI AND A VISIT IN APRIL. KELLY ANN: KELLY ANN: THIS WAS AN INTERESTING THIS WAS AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION. CONVERSATION. NOT SO FAR AS THE TWO LEADERS

CONVERSATION. CONVERSATION. NOT SO FAR AS THE TWO LEADERS NOT SO FAR AS THE TWO LEADERS SPOKE. SPOKE.

THEY SPEAK ALL THE TIME. THEY SPEAK ALL THE TIME.

IT'S NOT UNUSUAL TO FOLLOW UP IT'S NOT UNUSUAL TO FOLLOW UP WITH A SUCCESSFUL MEETING IN A WITH A SUCCESSFUL MEETING IN A DEAL BEING IMPLEMENTED TO TOUCH DEAL BEING IMPLEMENTED TO TOUCH BASE TO TALK ABOUT THE TRADE BASE TO TALK ABOUT THE TRADE ISSUES AND TALK ABOUT CHINA'S ISSUES AND TALK ABOUT CHINA'S SOYBEAN PURCHASES, WEED SOYBEAN PURCHASES, WEED PURCHASES -- WHEAT PURCHASES. PURCHASES -- WHEAT PURCHASES.

THE PRESIDENT DID NOT EVEN GET THE PRESIDENT DID NOT EVEN GET HIS OWN READOUT FOR SEVERAL HIS OWN READOUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER. HOURS LATER.

HOURS LATER. HOURS LATER.

CHINA'S WAS ALWAYS EXCLUSIVELY CHINA'S WAS ALWAYS EXCLUSIVELY FOCUSED ON TAIWAN, THE FOCUSED ON TAIWAN, THE IMPORTANCE OF TAIWAN, CINDY WAS IMPORTANCE OF TAIWAN, CINDY WAS HAD ACKNOWLEDGED THE IMPORTANCE HAD ACKNOWLEDGED THE IMPORTANCE -- SAYING THE U.S. -- SAYING THE U.S.

HAD ACKNOWLEDGED THE HAD ACKNOWLEDGED THE IMPORTANCE.

IMPORTANCE. THE U.S. THE U.S. READ DID NOT MENTION TAIWAN AT READ DID NOT MENTION TAIWAN AT ALL. ALL.

IT WAS FOCUSED ON THE TRADE IT WAS FOCUSED ON THE TRADE DEAL AND FOCUS ON UKRAINE. DEAL AND FOCUS ON UKRAINE.

IS THIS HE SAID, SHE SAID WHAT IS THIS HE SAID, SHE SAID WHAT HAPPENED IN THIS CALL MYSTERY. HAPPENED IN THIS CALL MYSTERY.

THERE ARE NO TRANSCRIPTS THERE ARE NO TRANSCRIPTS AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC ABOUT AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS IN THESE WHAT HAPPENS IN THESE BEHIND-THE-SCENES PHONE CALLS. BEHIND-THE-SCENES PHONE CALLS.

WHAT'S INTERESTING IS THAT THE WHAT'S INTERESTING IS THAT THE NARRATIVE BOTH SIDES ARE LAYING NARRATIVE BOTH SIDES ARE LAYING OUT. OUT. WHAT IS CLEAR IS WHAT IS ON

OUT. OUT. WHAT IS CLEAR IS WHAT IS ON WHAT IS CLEAR IS WHAT IS ON CHINA'S MINOR NOW.

CHINA'S MINOR NOW. THE PRESIDENT IS FOCUS ON A THE PRESIDENT IS FOCUS ON A TRADE DEAL. TRADE DEAL.

WHEN THE PRESIDENT DOES GO WHEN THE PRESIDENT DOES GO VISIT IN APRIL, I HAVE NO DOUBT VISIT IN APRIL, I HAVE NO DOUBT TAIWAN WILL BE ON THE AGENDA. TAIWAN WILL BE ON THE AGENDA.

DANI: DANI: THE FACT THAT TAIWAN WAS NOT THE FACT THAT TAIWAN WAS NOT MENTIONED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP, MENTIONED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP, DOES THAT SAY ANYTHING ABOUT DOES THAT SAY ANYTHING ABOUT THE WHITE HOUSE'S WILLINGNESS THE WHITE HOUSE'S WILLINGNESS TO STEP IT SHOULD TO BE TO STEP IT SHOULD TO BE MILITARY ACTION FROM CHINA TO MILITARY ACTION FROM CHINA TO TAIWAN? TAIWAN? KELLY ANN:

KELLY ANN: I WOULD NOT READ THAT INTO AN I WOULD NOT READ THAT INTO AN OMISSION. OMISSION.

I THINK FROM THE U.S. I THINK FROM THE U.S.

PERSPECTIVE THE CALL WAS REALLY PERSPECTIVE THE CALL WAS REALLY ABOUT CHECKING IN ON THE TRADE ABOUT CHECKING IN ON THE TRADE DEAL, DISCUSSIONS ARE ON WHAT'S DEAL, DISCUSSIONS ARE ON WHAT'S HAPPENING IN UKRAINE. HAPPENING IN UKRAINE.

THE ADMINISTRATION SAID SEVERAL THE ADMINISTRATION SAID SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW MONTHS TIMES IN THE PAST FEW MONTHS THERE'S NO END TO THE UKRAINE THERE'S NO END TO THE UKRAINE -RUSSIA WORK WITHOUT CHINA'S -RUSSIA WORK WITHOUT CHINA'S ACTIVE PARTICIPATION. ACTIVE PARTICIPATION.

ACTIVE PARTICIPATION. ACTIVE PARTICIPATION.

-- WAR WITHOUT CHINA'S ACTIVE -- WAR WITHOUT CHINA'S ACTIVE PARTICIPATION. PARTICIPATION. WHAT IS CLEAR BASED ON WHAT IS

PARTICIPATION. PARTICIPATION. WHAT IS CLEAR BASED ON WHAT IS WHAT IS CLEAR BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING BETWEEN CHINA AND HAPPENING BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN RIGHT NOW, THE CONCERN JAPAN RIGHT NOW, THE CONCERN OVER TAIWAN IS REALLY THIS OVER TAIWAN IS REALLY THIS MESSAGING CAMPAIGN WE ARE MESSAGING CAMPAIGN WE ARE SEEING FROM CHINA.

SEEING FROM CHINA. THIS SEEMED TO BE ABOUT A RACE THIS SEEMED TO BE ABOUT A RACE TO WIN THE NARRATIVE VERSUS TO WIN THE NARRATIVE VERSUS WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN THE WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN THE CALL AND THAT'S WHY YOU'RE CALL AND THAT'S WHY YOU'RE CINDY WAS NOT ADDRESSING IT.

CINDY WAS NOT ADDRESSING IT. DANI: DANI:

IN TERMS OF COMPETING IN TERMS OF COMPETING NARRATIVES YOU HAVE THE NARRATIVES YOU HAVE THE JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER SAY SHE JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER SAY SHE RECEIVED A CALL RIGHT AFTER RECEIVED A CALL RIGHT AFTER THAT CHINA-U.S. THAT CHINA-U.S. CALL FROM THE PRESIDENT.

THAT CHINA-U.S. THAT CHINA-U.S. CALL FROM THE PRESIDENT.

CALL FROM THE PRESIDENT. WE DID NOT REALLY HEAR ABOUT IT WE DID NOT REALLY HEAR ABOUT IT FROM THE SIDE OF THE U.S.

FROM THE SIDE OF THE U.S. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT? KELLY ANN: KELLY ANN: CLEARLY THE IS A TREMENDOUS CLEARLY THE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TENSION BETWEEN JAPAN AMOUNT OF TENSION BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA. AND CHINA. CHINA IS THREATENING TO CUT

AND CHINA. AND CHINA. CHINA IS THREATENING TO CUT CHINA IS THREATENING TO CUT FLIGHTS. FLIGHTS.

THERE'S A HUGE DIPLOMATIC ROPE THERE'S A HUGE DIPLOMATIC ROPE OVER THE PRIME MINISTER'S OVER THE PRIME MINISTER'S COMMENTS ABOUT THE EXISTENTIAL COMMENTS ABOUT THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO JAPAN OF ANY SORT OF THREAT TO JAPAN OF ANY SORT OF MILITARY INCURSION BY CHINA AND MILITARY INCURSION BY CHINA AND TAIWAN. TAIWAN. I THINK WITH THE U.S.

TAIWAN. TAIWAN. I THINK WITH THE U.S.

I THINK WITH THE U.S. PRESIDENT IS SHOWING SOLIDARITY PRESIDENT IS SHOWING SOLIDARITY WITH THE PRIME MINISTER.

WITH THE PRIME MINISTER. THIS IS ABOUT SAYING WE ARE THIS IS ABOUT SAYING WE ARE WITH YOU. WITH YOU.

WE STAND WITH OUR ALLY. WE STAND WITH OUR ALLY.

I DON'T THINK THE PRESIDENT I DON'T THINK THE PRESIDENT NEEDED TO ISSUE ANY SORT OF NEEDED TO ISSUE ANY SORT OF STATEMENT TO MAKE THAT POINT. STATEMENT TO MAKE THAT POINT.

THE FACT THE PHONE CALL THE FACT THE PHONE CALL HAPPENED WAS THE MESSAGE. HAPPENED WAS THE MESSAGE.

I THINK UNITED STATES AND JAPAN I THINK UNITED STATES AND JAPAN ARE UNITED. ARE UNITED. THIS ISSUE OF TAIWAN IS

ARE UNITED. ARE UNITED. THIS ISSUE OF TAIWAN IS THIS ISSUE OF TAIWAN IS INCREASINGLY ON PRESIDENT XI'S INCREASINGLY ON PRESIDENT XI'S MIND AND THIS WILL BE A POINT MIND AND THIS WILL BE A POINT OF TENSION GOING INTO THOSE OF TENSION GOING INTO THOSE APRIL MEETINGS. APRIL MEETINGS.

I EXPECT PRESIDENT XI TO TRY TO I EXPECT PRESIDENT XI TO TRY TO SQUEEZE THE PRESIDENT FOR SQUEEZE THE PRESIDENT FOR SOMETHING ON TAIWAN. SOMETHING ON TAIWAN.

THAT IS WHEN WE WILL SEE WHAT THAT IS WHEN WE WILL SEE WHAT THE U.S.'S REAL POSITION IS. THE U.S.'S REAL POSITION IS.

THE U.S.'S REAL POSITION IS. THE U.S.'S REAL POSITION IS.

LISA: LISA: HOW MUCH THIS IS A TIT-FOR-TAT?

HOW MUCH THIS IS A TIT-FOR-TAT? THE IDEA THAT THE U.S.

THE IDEA THAT THE U.S. SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE HARD-CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE HARD-CORE RHETORIC AROUND TAIWAN THAT RHETORIC AROUND TAIWAN THAT CHINA WILL HELP WITH THE CHINA WILL HELP WITH THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR, POTENTIALLY RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR, POTENTIALLY BRINGING AN END TO IT SOONER?

BRINGING AN END TO IT SOONER? KELLY ANN: KELLY ANN: CHINA IS LIKELY TO USE ALL OF CHINA IS LIKELY TO USE ALL OF ITS LEVERAGE POINTS IN TERMS OF ITS LEVERAGE POINTS IN TERMS OF TRYING TO PUSH ISSUES THAT ARE TRYING TO PUSH ISSUES THAT ARE SO IMPORTANT TO IT. SO IMPORTANT TO IT.

TAIWAN IS ISSUE NUMBER ONE IN TAIWAN IS ISSUE NUMBER ONE IN TERMS OF THINGS THAT PRESIDENT TERMS OF THINGS THAT PRESIDENT XI WANTS TO DO. XI WANTS TO DO. I DO THINK THAT THE U.S.

I DO THINK THAT THE U.S. POSITION IS STRATEGIC POSITION IS STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY. AMBIGUITY.

I DON'T THINK THE FACT THAT THE I DON'T THINK THE FACT THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS NOT DEPARTED FROM PRESIDENT HAS NOT DEPARTED FROM THAT OR SAID ANYTHING FROM THAT THAT OR SAID ANYTHING FROM THAT INDICATED DIFFERENT PIVOT POINT INDICATED DIFFERENT PIVOT POINT IN U.S. IN U.S. POLICY. POLICY. THE RUBBER WILL BE THE ROAD IN

IN U.S. IN U.S. POLICY. POLICY. THE RUBBER WILL BE THE ROAD IN THE RUBBER WILL BE THE ROAD IN APRIL WHEN I EXPECT PRESIDENT APRIL WHEN I EXPECT PRESIDENT XI TO PUSH THE PRESIDENT ON XI TO PUSH THE PRESIDENT ON THIS ISSUE. THIS ISSUE.

WE WILL SEE WHAT THE RESULT IS. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE RESULT IS.

THE U.S. THE U.S. POSITION AS FAR AS I'M AWARE POSITION AS FAR AS I'M AWARE HAS NOT CHANGED.

HAS NOT CHANGED. I THINK STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY I THINK STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY CONTINUES TO BE THE U.S.

CONTINUES TO BE THE U.S. VIEW. VIEW. LISA: LISA:

KELLY ANN SHAW, THANK YOU FOR KELLY ANN SHAW, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. BEING WITH US. DEFINITELY TWO DIFFERENT DEFINITELY TWO DIFFERENT READOUTS NOTABLE GIVEN THE IDEA READOUTS NOTABLE GIVEN THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE WERE WONDERING WHAT THAT PEOPLE WERE WONDERING WHAT EXACTLY IS THE PHONE CALL AND EXACTLY IS THE PHONE CALL AND WHAT WILL THIS MEETING BE IN WHAT WILL THIS MEETING BE IN APRIL. APRIL. DANI: DANI:

AND WHAT DID PRESIDENT TRUMP AND WHAT DID PRESIDENT TRUMP SAY ABOUT TAIWAN? SAY ABOUT TAIWAN?

THE CHINESE ANGER WAS CLEAR TO THE CHINESE ANGER WAS CLEAR TO THEM. THEM. IT'S A MATTER OF SOVEREIGNTY.

THEM. THEM. IT'S A MATTER OF SOVEREIGNTY.

IT'S A MATTER OF SOVEREIGNTY. THE WHITE HOUSE'S RESPONSE IS THE WHITE HOUSE'S RESPONSE IS JUST QUESTION MARKS.

JUST QUESTION MARKS. LISA: LISA: COMING UP NEXT, JOHN BILTON, COMING UP NEXT, JOHN BILTON, JEANETTE LOWE, LAUREN MURPHY, JEANETTE LOWE, LAUREN MURPHY, AND SAMANTHA DART AS WE GET AND SAMANTHA DART AS WE GET RETAILER EARNINGS AND PARSE RETAILER EARNINGS AND PARSE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD WITH THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD WITH GOOGLE VERY MUCH FRONT AND

GOOGLE VERY MUCH FRONT AND FOCUS. FOCUS. ♪ ♪

>> WHAT I'M WORRIED ABOUT IS >> WHAT I'M WORRIED ABOUT IS THE FED DRAGGING ITS FEET.

THE FED DRAGGING ITS FEET.

>> IT IS CONFUSING WHAT YOU ARE >> IT IS CONFUSING WHAT YOU ARE HEARING OUT OF THE FEDERAL HEARING OUT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE. RESERVE.

>> YOU MIGHT KNOW WHAT THE HOLD >> YOU MIGHT KNOW WHAT THE HOLD THE FED TO THE SAME STANDARD AS THE FED TO THE SAME STANDARD AS NORMAL TIMES. NORMAL TIMES.

>> WE WILL GET THREE RATE CUTS >> WE WILL GET THREE RATE CUTS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. DECEMBER IS STILL A TOSSUP.

DECEMBER IS STILL A TOSSUP.

>> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG >> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ AND ANNMARIE ABRAMOWICZ AND ANNMARIE HORDERN.

HORDERN. LISA: LISA: WELCOME BACK TO "BLOOMBERG WELCOME BACK TO "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE."

STOCKS MEANDERING AFTER THE STOCKS MEANDERING AFTER THE BIGGEST TWO-DAY POP SINCE MAY. BIGGEST TWO-DAY POP SINCE MAY.

RETAIL SALES TRICKLING OUT AS RETAIL SALES TRICKLING OUT AS THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON KICKS OFF. KICKS OFF. TRADERS AWAITING SEPTEMBER

KICKS OFF. KICKS OFF. TRADERS AWAITING SEPTEMBER TRADERS AWAITING SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES DATA AND ABOUT 90 RETAIL SALES DATA AND ABOUT 90 MINUTES. MINUTES.

ALPHABET BECOMING THE U.S.'S ALPHABET BECOMING THE U.S.'S

THIRD MOST VALUABLE COMPANY, THIRD MOST VALUABLE COMPANY, APPROACHING $4 TRILLION OF APPROACHING $4 TRILLION OF MARKET CAPITALIZATION AS IT MARKET CAPITALIZATION AS IT PRESENTS IS STIFF COMPETITION PRESENTS IS STIFF COMPETITION TO OPENAI AND NVIDIA. TO OPENAI AND NVIDIA.

THE QUESTION OF DISRUPTION VERY THE QUESTION OF DISRUPTION VERY MUCH ROILING THE ARTIFICIAL MUCH ROILING THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BASE. INTELLIGENCE BASE. DANI: DANI:

INTELLIGENCE BASE. INTELLIGENCE BASE. DANI: DANI:

THERE IS SO MUCH CHURN. THERE IS SO MUCH CHURN.

WE ARE GOING TO EVERYONE'S A WE ARE GOING TO EVERYONE'S A WINNER WHO SPENT AN AI TO MAYBE WINNER WHO SPENT AN AI TO MAYBE NOT EVERYONE WILL BE OK. NOT EVERYONE WILL BE OK.

THE INTERESTING THING IS THE INTERESTING THING IS DESPITE HOW VOLATILE THAT DESPITE HOW VOLATILE THAT BACK-AND-FORTH HAS BEEN, IT IS BACK-AND-FORTH HAS BEEN, IT IS THE FED DICTATING THE THE FED DICTATING THE DIRECTIONS OF THE MARKET. DIRECTIONS OF THE MARKET.

IT WAS YESTERDAY IN HOPES OF A IT WAS YESTERDAY IN HOPES OF A CUT LIFTING US UP. CUT LIFTING US UP.

WEEKS BEFORE IT WAS DOUBT OF A WEEKS BEFORE IT WAS DOUBT OF A CUT THAT WAS PUSHING IS DOWN. CUT THAT WAS PUSHING IS DOWN.

LISA: LISA: EVEN THOUGH YOU DID YOU SEE THE EVEN THOUGH YOU DID YOU SEE THE BIGGEST POP GOING BACK TO MAY, BIGGEST POP GOING BACK TO MAY, THERE WAS THAT BIFURCATION, THE THERE WAS THAT BIFURCATION, THE TALE OF TWO HALVES IN THE TALE OF TWO HALVES IN THE MARKET WITHOUT THE MARKET NOT MARKET WITHOUT THE MARKET NOT PARTICIPATING. PARTICIPATING.

THE CONSUMER FACING STOCKS NOT THE CONSUMER FACING STOCKS NOT EXACTLY RALLYING. EXACTLY RALLYING.

EXACTLY RALLYING. EXACTLY RALLYING.

CARNIVAL SHARES FALLING QUITE CARNIVAL SHARES FALLING QUITE CONSIDERABLY. CONSIDERABLY. IT GOES TO THE QUESTION OF HOW

CONSIDERABLY. CONSIDERABLY. IT GOES TO THE QUESTION OF HOW IT GOES TO THE QUESTION OF HOW LONG THE AI TRADE CAN CONTINUE LONG THE AI TRADE CAN CONTINUE UNLESS THIS PARTICIPATION FROM UNLESS THIS PARTICIPATION FROM THE REST OF THE ECONOMY.

THE REST OF THE ECONOMY. IS THE FED TOO LATE TO TURN IS THE FED TOO LATE TO TURN AROUND THE WEAKNESS WE HAVE AROUND THE WEAKNESS WE HAVE SEEN IN CERTAIN POCKETS I CAN SEEN IN CERTAIN POCKETS I CAN DO WHAT WE HEARD FROM NEIL DO WHAT WE HEARD FROM NEIL DATA? DATA? -- DUTTA? -- DUTTA?

DANI: DANI: THE IDEA THAT A PRODUCTIVITY THE IDEA THAT A PRODUCTIVITY BOOM IS GOING TO COME TO THE BOOM IS GOING TO COME TO THE REST OF THE MARKET AND TO SAVE REST OF THE MARKET AND TO SAVE US TO SAVE US IF AI SPENDING US TO SAVE US IF AI SPENDING SLOWS, HE CAST DOUBT ON THAT SLOWS, HE CAST DOUBT ON THAT AND THAT'S A REAL PROBLEM FOR

AND THAT'S A REAL PROBLEM FOR THOSE THAT SAY YES, THE AI THOSE THAT SAY YES, THE AI TRADE. TRADE.

ALL THESE OTHER COMPANIES ARE ALL THESE OTHER COMPANIES ARE BENEFITING FROM IT. BENEFITING FROM IT.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY DON'T AND WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY DON'T AND WHAT HAPPENS THERE'S A SLOWING WHAT HAPPENS THERE'S A SLOWING CONSUMER? CONSUMER? LISA: LISA: KISS THE SHOPPING SEASON AND

CONSUMER? CONSUMER? LISA: LISA: KISS THE SHOPPING SEASON AND KISS THE SHOPPING SEASON AND THAT IS WHY RETAILER EARNINGS THAT IS WHY RETAILER EARNINGS HAVE BEEN SO INTERESTING.

HAVE BEEN SO INTERESTING. BURLINGTON RAISED THEIR BURLINGTON RAISED THEIR FULL-YEAR FORECAST AND TAKING A FULL-YEAR FORECAST AND TAKING A BEATING ON COMP SALES.

BEATING ON COMP SALES.

KOHL'S JUMPING 15% AFTER COMP KOHL'S JUMPING 15% AFTER COMP SALES BEAT IN THE QUARTER. SALES BEAT IN THE QUARTER.

THEY JUST HAD A NEW CEO COME THEY JUST HAD A NEW CEO COME IN.

IN. THOSE SHARES REALLY RALLYING THOSE SHARES REALLY RALLYING AFTER SEEING FULL-YEAR AFTER SEEING FULL-YEAR OPERATING MARGIN SIGNIFICANTLY OPERATING MARGIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE WHERE PREVIOUSLY ABOVE WHERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

EXPECTED. IT BEATS PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE IT BEATS PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD. BOARD. DANI: DANI:

IT'S FASCINATING. IT'S FASCINATING.

THE MARGIN STORY THAT YOU THE MARGIN STORY THAT YOU POINTED TO, THIS IS A SECTOR WE POINTED TO, THIS IS A SECTOR WE ASSUMED MARGINS WOULD BE REALLY ASSUMED MARGINS WOULD BE REALLY BAD. BAD. WE ASSUMED THEY WOULD PAY MORE

BAD. BAD. WE ASSUMED THEY WOULD PAY MORE WE ASSUMED THEY WOULD PAY MORE AND I WOULD HAVE TO MOVE IT AND I WOULD HAVE TO MOVE IT ALONG TO THE CONSUMER.

ALONG TO THE CONSUMER. THAT IS NOT WHAT IS PLAYING THAT IS NOT WHAT IS PLAYING OUT. OUT.

THEY ARE FINDING EFFICIENCIES THEY ARE FINDING EFFICIENCIES FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE. FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE.

FROM A COMPANY THAT IS IN SUCH FROM A COMPANY THAT IS IN SUCH NEED OF A TURNAROUND PLAN, THE NEED OF A TURNAROUND PLAN, THE IDEA THEY CAN DO IT IS GETTING IDEA THEY CAN DO IT IS GETTING GREAT REWARDED BY THE MARKET. GREAT REWARDED BY THE MARKET.

LISA: LISA: THE WORD EFFICIENCY. THE WORD EFFICIENCY.

WE KEEP COMING BACK TO THAT. WE KEEP COMING BACK TO THAT.

THE EFFICIENCY IS SLIGHTLY THE EFFICIENCY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER YESTERDAY'S RALLY. LOWER AFTER YESTERDAY'S RALLY.

REPRISING SOME OF THAT AS WE REPRISING SOME OF THAT AS WE GET SOME OF THESE EARNINGS. GET SOME OF THESE EARNINGS.

NOW BASICALLY UNCHANGED. NOW BASICALLY UNCHANGED.

UNCHANGED ON THE 10-YEAR. UNCHANGED ON THE 10-YEAR.

THIS IS NOT A VERY ACTIVE BOARD THIS IS NOT A VERY ACTIVE BOARD TODAY. TODAY.

TODAY. TODAY.

COMING UP, JOHN BILTON AS COMING UP, JOHN BILTON AS INVESTORS TAPPED THE BRAKES OR INVESTORS TAPPED THE BRAKES OR TAKE A PRE-THANKSGIVING PAUSE. TAKE A PRE-THANKSGIVING PAUSE.

JEANETTE LOWE AS UKRAINE PEACE JEANETTE LOWE AS UKRAINE PEACE TALKS GAIN MOMENTUM, AND TALKS GAIN MOMENTUM, AND SAMANTHA DART ON MY ENERGY IS SAMANTHA DART ON MY ENERGY IS THE KEY TO WINNING THE AI RACE. THE KEY TO WINNING THE AI RACE.

STOCKS SORT OF MEANDERING STOCKS SORT OF MEANDERING FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S RALLY. FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S RALLY.

JOHN BILTON SEEN POTENTIAL FOR JOHN BILTON SEEN POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE RETURNS. POSITIVE RETURNS.

POSITIVE RETURNS. POSITIVE RETURNS.

"THE RECENT PULLBACK IS "THE RECENT PULLBACK IS PRESENTING A BUYING OPPORTUNITY PRESENTING A BUYING OPPORTUNITY AND WE FEEL THE GLOOMY AND WE FEEL THE GLOOMY NARRATIVE ON TECH IS SOMEWHAT NARRATIVE ON TECH IS SOMEWHAT OVERDONE." OVERDONE." JOHN, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

OVERDONE." OVERDONE." JOHN, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

JOHN, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. I COULD USE A LITTLE OPTIMISM I COULD USE A LITTLE OPTIMISM THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING.

WHY DO YOU THINK ANY KIND OF WHY DO YOU THINK ANY KIND OF RALLY IS GOING TO COME ON THE RALLY IS GOING TO COME ON THE HEELS OF PEOPLE WATCHING THE AI HEELS OF PEOPLE WATCHING THE AI SPACE AND GAINING ENTHUSIASM SPACE AND GAINING ENTHUSIASM ABOUT IT AGAIN RATHER THAN ABOUT IT AGAIN RATHER THAN FOCUSING ON THE TRANSFORMATION FOCUSING ON THE TRANSFORMATION AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE WE AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE WE

ARE SEEING ON A MORNING LIKE ARE SEEING ON A MORNING LIKE THIS ONE? THIS ONE? JOHN: JOHN: YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER WHAT TECH

THIS ONE? THIS ONE? JOHN: JOHN: YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER WHAT TECH YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER WHAT TECH IS. IS.

IT'S ABOUT THE NEXT NEW IDEA IT'S ABOUT THE NEXT NEW IDEA AND CONTINUALLY CHALLENGING AND CONTINUALLY CHALLENGING ITSELF. ITSELF. THINK BACK TO FEBRUARY 1 WE HAD

ITSELF. ITSELF. THINK BACK TO FEBRUARY 1 WE HAD THINK BACK TO FEBRUARY 1 WE HAD DEEPSEEK SUDDENLY ON THE DEEPSEEK SUDDENLY ON THE HORIZON. HORIZON.

MY GOODNESS, WHAT DOES THIS MY GOODNESS, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE U.S. MEAN FOR THE U.S. TECH? TECH?

IT IS ALL OVER. IT IS ALL OVER. WAS IT? WAS IT?

WE GOT THE STRONGEST RALLY IN A WE GOT THE STRONGEST RALLY IN A LONG TIME FROM APRIL ONWARDS. LONG TIME FROM APRIL ONWARDS.

WE ARE SEEING A MATURATION. WE ARE SEEING A MATURATION.

COMPETITION BEGINNING TO COME COMPETITION BEGINNING TO COME IN. IN. WE ARE SEEING DIFFERENT WE ARE SEEING DIFFERENT

IN. IN. WE ARE SEEING DIFFERENT WE ARE SEEING DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES USING DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES USING DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES FOR DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES FOR DIFFERENT PURPOSES, ETC. PURPOSES, ETC. THERE'S A LOT OF MONEY GOING.

THERE'S A LOT OF MONEY GOING. THE THIRD QUARTER RESULTS FROM THE THIRD QUARTER RESULTS FROM THE TECH LEADERS SHOW HUGE THE TECH LEADERS SHOW HUGE CAPITAL SPEND COMMITMENTS THAT CAPITAL SPEND COMMITMENTS THAT WILL BOOST INVESTMENT SHARE.

WILL BOOST INVESTMENT SHARE. OPEN QUESTION ON PRODUCTIVITY.

OPEN QUESTION ON PRODUCTIVITY. LONGER-TERM, WE LOOKED AT THIS LONGER-TERM, WE LOOKED AT THIS IN THE LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET IN THE LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS WORK.

ASSUMPTIONS WORK. WE FEEL THE PRODUCTIVITY IS SET WE FEEL THE PRODUCTIVITY IS SET THEY GAIN BUT IT'S A LONG BURN.

THEY GAIN BUT IT'S A LONG BURN. IT REQUIRES THE INVESTMENT IT REQUIRES THE INVESTMENT FIRST. WE THINK THERE ARE FIRST. WE THINK THERE ARE REASONS TO BE POSITIVE AND WE

FIRST. WE THINK THERE ARE REASONS TO BE POSITIVE AND WE REASONS TO BE POSITIVE AND WE THINK WITH THIS CYCLE OF THINK WITH THIS CYCLE OF INVESTMENT HAPPENING NOW THERE INVESTMENT HAPPENING NOW THERE ARE REASONS WE WILL SEE DIPS ARE REASONS WE WILL SEE DIPS BOUGHT. BOUGHT. LISA: LISA:

IS THERE ENOUGH INVESTOR IS THERE ENOUGH INVESTOR ENTHUSIASM TO SUPERSEDE ANY ENTHUSIASM TO SUPERSEDE ANY KIND OF PICKUP THAT WOULD COME KIND OF PICKUP THAT WOULD COME FROM -- HICKUP THAT WOULD COME FROM -- HICKUP THAT WOULD COME FROM A COMPANY WITH $500 FROM A COMPANY WITH $500 BILLION, THAT IS PRIVATE, THAT BILLION, THAT IS PRIVATE, THAT IS TRYING TO GROW INTO THE IS TRYING TO GROW INTO THE

IMAGE IT HAS FOR ITSELF -- IMAGE IT HAS FOR ITSELF -- OPENAI? OPENAI? IF YOU GET A BLOWUP FROM THESE

OPENAI? OPENAI? IF YOU GET A BLOWUP FROM THESE IF YOU GET A BLOWUP FROM THESE COMPANIES THAT HAVE BEEN MORE COMPANIES THAT HAVE BEEN MORE SPECULATIVE? SPECULATIVE? JOHN:

JOHN: TAKE A STEP BACK FROM TAKE A STEP BACK FROM INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES. INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES.

INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES. INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES.

THERE'S A LOT OF CAPITAL AND THERE'S A LOT OF CAPITAL AND MOTION RIGHT NOW. MOTION RIGHT NOW.

I'M NOT A STOCK ANALYST AND I I'M NOT A STOCK ANALYST AND I DON'T WANT TO PROJECT WHO IS DON'T WANT TO PROJECT WHO IS WHO. WHO.

WHO. WHO.

WE KNOW UP TO AROUND 80% OF WE KNOW UP TO AROUND 80% OF TOTAL PRODUCTIVITY GAINS ARE TOTAL PRODUCTIVITY GAINS ARE EXPLAINED BY UPFRONT EXPLAINED BY UPFRONT INVESTMENT.

INVESTMENT. THE RISK WE HAVE NOW IF WE TAKE THE RISK WE HAVE NOW IF WE TAKE A LONG VIEW, WE KNOW THE INPUT A LONG VIEW, WE KNOW THE INPUT OF LABOR INTO GROWTH GOING OF LABOR INTO GROWTH GOING FORWARD IS GOING TO SHRINK.

FORWARD IS GOING TO SHRINK. WE HAVE BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR WE HAVE BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR CLAMPING DOWN ON MIGRATION.

CLAMPING DOWN ON MIGRATION. IT IS A GLOBAL FACTOR, NOT JUST IT IS A GLOBAL FACTOR, NOT JUST A U.S. A U.S. THING. THING.

IT AMPLIFIES THE IMPACT ON IT AMPLIFIES THE IMPACT ON AGING POPULATION. AGING POPULATION.

AGING POPULATION. AGING POPULATION.

AS MY COLLEAGUE LIKES TO SAY, AS MY COLLEAGUE LIKES TO SAY, PRODUCTIVITY IS WHAT HAPPENS PRODUCTIVITY IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU RUN OUT OF WORKERS. WHEN YOU RUN OUT OF WORKERS.

GUESS WHAT? GUESS WHAT? -- GUESS WHAT? -- GUESS WHAT?

WE ARE TRACKING A CHAIN OF WE ARE TRACKING A CHAIN OF EVENTS FROM THE INVESTMENT EVENTS FROM THE INVESTMENT BEING MADE TO THE TECHNOLOGY BEING MADE TO THE TECHNOLOGY BEING BUILT TO THE ADOPTION BEING BUILT TO THE ADOPTION TAKING PLACE IN THE FULL TAKING PLACE IN THE FULL DEPLOYMENT. DEPLOYMENT. NO PRIOR TECH CYCLE, MAINFRAME,

DEPLOYMENT. DEPLOYMENT. NO PRIOR TECH CYCLE, MAINFRAME, NO PRIOR TECH CYCLE, MAINFRAME, E-COMMERCE, MOBILE TELEPHONY, E-COMMERCE, MOBILE TELEPHONY, NOW AI HAS BROADENED OUT THREE NOW AI HAS BROADENED OUT THREE TIMES. TIMES.

WE ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE WE ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE OVERALL TECHNOLOGY CYCLE AND OVERALL TECHNOLOGY CYCLE AND IT'S STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES. IT'S STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES.

DANI: DANI: IT'S INCREDIBLY COMPLICATED.

IT'S INCREDIBLY COMPLICATED. I SPENT A HUGE CHUNK OF MY DAY I SPENT A HUGE CHUNK OF MY DAY UNDERSTANDING THE DIFFERENCES UNDERSTANDING THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TPU'S AND GPU'S.

BETWEEN TPU'S AND GPU'S. YOU ARE NOT A TECH SPECIFIC YOU ARE NOT A TECH SPECIFIC ANALYST BUT IS THERE A SENSE ANALYST BUT IS THERE A SENSE THAT IN ORDER TO BE AN ACTIVE THAT IN ORDER TO BE AN ACTIVE INVESTOR, TO UNDERSTAND WHERE INVESTOR, TO UNDERSTAND WHERE THE WINNERS AND LOSERS, YOU THE WINNERS AND LOSERS, YOU NEED TO HAVE A TECHNICAL NEED TO HAVE A TECHNICAL KNOW-HOW THAT MOST PEOPLE DON'T

KNOW-HOW THAT MOST PEOPLE DON'T HAVE. HAVE.

DOES IT PAY TO BE HYPER DOES IT PAY TO BE HYPER SPECIALIZED ON TECH IN THIS SPECIALIZED ON TECH IN THIS ENVIRONMENT? ENVIRONMENT? JOHN: JOHN:

ENVIRONMENT? ENVIRONMENT? JOHN: JOHN:

THE SAME IS TRUE ON ANY SECTOR. THE SAME IS TRUE ON ANY SECTOR.

WHEN YOU GET DOWN INTO THE WHEN YOU GET DOWN INTO THE DEPTHS -- DANI: DEPTHS -- DANI: THIS SECTOR DOMINATES THE THIS SECTOR DOMINATES THE MARKETS WHEN YOU CANNOT SAY THE MARKETS WHEN YOU CANNOT SAY THE SAME FOR PHARMA.

SAME FOR PHARMA. JOHN: JOHN: YOU CAN BREAK IT DOWN INTO THE YOU CAN BREAK IT DOWN INTO THE JOBS TECH IS DOING.

JOBS TECH IS DOING. HIGHLY SPECIALIZED FUNCTIONS HIGHLY SPECIALIZED FUNCTIONS AMID THAT REAL TOP END CUTTING AMID THAT REAL TOP END CUTTING EDGE INNOVATION.

EDGE INNOVATION. THAT IS WHERE THE GPU'S ARE THAT IS WHERE THE GPU'S ARE COMING IN AND THE TPU' THATS COMING IN AND THE TPU' THATS ARE MORE BRUTE FORCE AND CAN ARE MORE BRUTE FORCE AND CAN APPLY A PART OF PROCESSING APPLY A PART OF PROCESSING POWER IN A SINGLE DIRECTION.

POWER IN A SINGLE DIRECTION. THE ABILITY TO BE ABLE TO SCALE THE ABILITY TO BE ABLE TO SCALE AND LEARN FAST ABOUT WHAT WHAT AND LEARN FAST ABOUT WHAT WHAT IS INVESTING IN, IT IS AN IS INVESTING IN, IT IS AN AMAZING AI USE CASE.

AMAZING AI USE CASE. WE CAN SEE HOW WE STRATIFY WE CAN SEE HOW WE STRATIFY DIFFERENT USES OF AI.

DIFFERENT USES OF AI. ARE WE AUTOMATING SIMPLE TASKS?

ARE WE AUTOMATING SIMPLE TASKS? ARE WE DOING LARGE MODEL -- ARE WE DOING LARGE MODEL -- MODELING OF UNSTRUCTURED DATA?

MODELING OF UNSTRUCTURED DATA? JUST HAVING THAT BASIC JUST HAVING THAT BASIC UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS NEEDED UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS NEEDED WHERE IS REASONABLE AS A WHERE IS REASONABLE AS A FINANCIAL ANALYST ANYWAYS.

FINANCIAL ANALYST ANYWAYS. DANI: DANI:

THERE WAS THE DREAM OF SUPER THERE WAS THE DREAM OF SUPER INTELLIGENCE AND SOMETHING SAM INTELLIGENCE AND SOMETHING SAM ALTMAN TALKED ABOUT, JENSEN ALTMAN TALKED ABOUT, JENSEN HUANG, AND IT BUILT UP STOCKS HUANG, AND IT BUILT UP STOCKS AND HAVE THIS -- I DON'T KNOW AND HAVE THIS -- I DON'T KNOW IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT A BUBBLE IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT A BUBBLE BUT HIGH VALUATIONS. BUT HIGH VALUATIONS.

I WE DECIDED WE CARE LESS ABOUT I WE DECIDED WE CARE LESS ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE FUTURE AND WHAT HAPPENS IN THE FUTURE AND MORE ABOUT THE HERE AND NOW IN MORE ABOUT THE HERE AND NOW IN TERMS OF PROFITABILITY AND TERMS OF PROFITABILITY AND ACTUALLY USE CASES OF AI? ACTUALLY USE CASES OF AI? JOHN:

JOHN: I THINK IT'S BOTH. I THINK IT'S BOTH.

WE ALWAYS WANT INNOVATION. WE ALWAYS WANT INNOVATION.

THAT'S WHY WE SEE THE U.S. THAT'S WHY WE SEE THE U.S.

CARRIES ON DOMINATING GLOBAL CARRIES ON DOMINATING GLOBAL MARKET CAPITALIZATION. MARKET CAPITALIZATION.

MARKET CAPITALIZATION. MARKET CAPITALIZATION.

EVEN OUT 10 TO 15 YEARS FROM EVEN OUT 10 TO 15 YEARS FROM NOW WHEN WE LOOK AT THE WORK IN NOW WHEN WE LOOK AT THE WORK IN THE CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS. THE CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS.

THE INNOVATION CYCLE IS THE INNOVATION CYCLE IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT. INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT.

INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT. INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT.

THIS IS WHAT SEPARATES IN OUR THIS IS WHAT SEPARATES IN OUR MIGHT FROM THE.COM ERA -- DOT MIGHT FROM THE.COM ERA -- DOT COM ERA COM ERA .A COME BACK TO THAT POINT.

.A COME BACK TO THAT POINT. PRODUCTIVITY IS WHAT HAPPENS PRODUCTIVITY IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU RUN OUT OF WORKERS.

WHEN YOU RUN OUT OF WORKERS. THAT IS THE BIGGEST DRIVER.

THAT IS THE BIGGEST DRIVER. IT IS NOT THE ROBOTS COMING FOR IT IS NOT THE ROBOTS COMING FOR OUR JOBS. OUR JOBS.

THERE ARE FEWER OF US AND WE THERE ARE FEWER OF US AND WE STILL WENT TO DEVELOP PROCESSES STILL WENT TO DEVELOP PROCESSES AND GROWTH. AND GROWTH. LISA: LISA:

AND GROWTH. AND GROWTH. LISA: LISA:

THIS IS WHY PEOPLE ARE HAVING A THIS IS WHY PEOPLE ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HARD TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON THIS ECONOMY. THIS ECONOMY. WE WILL BE GETTING ADP

THIS ECONOMY. THIS ECONOMY. WE WILL BE GETTING ADP WE WILL BE GETTING ADP PAYROLL'S NUMBERS COMING UP ON PAYROLL'S NUMBERS COMING UP ON THE WEEKLY AT 8:15.

THE WEEKLY AT 8:15. 8:30, BACKDATED STALE DATA FROM 8:30, BACKDATED STALE DATA FROM SEPTEMBER. SEPTEMBER.

WE ARE GETTING DETAILS FROM WE ARE GETTING DETAILS FROM SOME OF THE RETAILERS WHO ARE SOME OF THE RETAILERS WHO ARE REPORTING EARNINGS TODAY. REPORTING EARNINGS TODAY.

I WILL NOT HAVE YOU COMMENT I WILL NOT HAVE YOU COMMENT BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT A SINGLE BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT A SINGLE STOCK ANALYST. IT'S BEEN A STOCK ANALYST. IT'S BEEN A

STOCK ANALYST. IT'S BEEN A STOCK ANALYST. IT'S BEEN A POSITIVE READ. POSITIVE READ. IT HAS NOT BEEN GLOOM AND DOOM

POSITIVE READ. POSITIVE READ. IT HAS NOT BEEN GLOOM AND DOOM IT HAS NOT BEEN GLOOM AND DOOM AND WHAT WE ARE HEARING FROM AND WHAT WE ARE HEARING FROM PEOPLE IS THERE IS A LOT OF PEOPLE IS THERE IS A LOT OF GLOOM AND DOOM. GLOOM AND DOOM.

YOU ARE SEEING THAT IN THE YOU ARE SEEING THAT IN THE BIFURCATION OF MARKET BIFURCATION OF MARKET PERFORMANCE. PERFORMANCE. IS THAT OVER STATED THE

PERFORMANCE. PERFORMANCE. IS THAT OVER STATED THE IS THAT OVER STATED THE NON-TECH NAMES? NON-TECH NAMES?

THE IDEA THAT THE CONSUMER IS A THE IDEA THAT THE CONSUMER IS A LOT WEAKER THAN IT MIGHT SEEM? LOT WEAKER THAN IT MIGHT SEEM?

JOHN: JOHN: THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE CONSUMER WHEN YOU LOOK ACROSS CONSUMER WHEN YOU LOOK ACROSS INCOME COHORTS. INCOME COHORTS.

THE DOMINANT PIECE OF RETAIL THE DOMINANT PIECE OF RETAIL SALES OF ANY ACTIVITY IN THE SALES OF ANY ACTIVITY IN THE CONSUMER SPACE IS DRIVEN BY THE CONSUMER SPACE IS DRIVEN BY THE UPPER INCOME BRACKETS. UPPER INCOME BRACKETS.

WHERE WE WILL GET SOME IMPACT WHERE WE WILL GET SOME IMPACT -- THIS IS THE DELAYED IMPACT -- THIS IS THE DELAYED IMPACT OF THE FED -- WILL BE ON OF THE FED -- WILL BE ON GRADUALLY LOWERING THE COSTS GRADUALLY LOWERING THE COSTS FOR CONSUMERS ACROSS THE BOARD. FOR CONSUMERS ACROSS THE BOARD.

WE ARE SEEING OIL PRICES WE ARE SEEING OIL PRICES REASONABLY STABLE, WHICH IS REASONABLY STABLE, WHICH IS GREAT FOR HOUSEHOLDS. GREAT FOR HOUSEHOLDS.

THEY OPERATE WITH A LAG. THEY OPERATE WITH A LAG.

IF WE HAD A VERY EXUBERANT IF WE HAD A VERY EXUBERANT CONSUMER, I WOULD FEEL MORE CONSUMER, I WOULD FEEL MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR CONCERNED ABOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR THE ECONOMY. THE ECONOMY. THE CONSUMER SENTIMENT REALLY

THE ECONOMY. THE ECONOMY. THE CONSUMER SENTIMENT REALLY THE CONSUMER SENTIMENT REALLY WEEK IN EUROPE -- WEAK IN WEEK IN EUROPE -- WEAK IN EUROPE. EUROPE. THE HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN

EUROPE. EUROPE. THE HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN OUTSIDE THE PANDEMIC.

OUTSIDE THE PANDEMIC. THE CONSUMER HAS A LOT OF THE CONSUMER HAS A LOT OF COILED UP SENTIMENT AND COILED COILED UP SENTIMENT AND COILED UP SAVINGS WHEN WE LOOK AROUND UP SAVINGS WHEN WE LOOK AROUND THE GLOBE TO PUT TO WORK.

THE GLOBE TO PUT TO WORK. WE HAVE BIG ISSUES FALLING WE HAVE BIG ISSUES FALLING BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BEIJING.

BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BEIJING. WE HOPE STEPS TOWARDS PEACE WE HOPE STEPS TOWARDS PEACE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE.

BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE. AS WE GET SOME OF THESE BIG TWO AS WE GET SOME OF THESE BIG TWO POLITICAL OVERHANGS WORKING POLITICAL OVERHANGS WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH, THE THEIR WAY THROUGH, THE POTENTIAL FOR A PICKUP IN POTENTIAL FOR A PICKUP IN SEDIMENT COULD BE QUITE SEDIMENT COULD BE QUITE POWERFUL FOR THE CONSUMER.

POWERFUL FOR THE CONSUMER. LISA: LISA:

NOT A LOT OF RETAIL IS GETTING NOT A LOT OF RETAIL IS GETTING AHEAD OF THEM BUILDING UP THEIR AHEAD OF THEM BUILDING UP THEIR PORTFOLIOS. PORTFOLIOS. JOHN BILTON, HAVE A WONDERFUL

PORTFOLIOS. PORTFOLIOS. JOHN BILTON, HAVE A WONDERFUL JOHN BILTON, HAVE A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING IF YOU CELEBRATE.

THANKSGIVING IF YOU CELEBRATE.

WE ARE SEEING KOHL'S SHARES UP WE ARE SEEING KOHL'S SHARES UP 20%. 20%.

20%. 20%.

YOU CAN SEE A TALE OF DIFFERENT YOU CAN SEE A TALE OF DIFFERENT EXECUTION. EXECUTION. THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHICH

EXECUTION. EXECUTION. THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHICH THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHICH GOODS THEY CAN RAISE PRICES ON.

GOODS THEY CAN RAISE PRICES ON. THAT IS WHY IT IS SO HARD TO THAT IS WHY IT IS SO HARD TO GET A MORE MACRO READ FOR SOME GET A MORE MACRO READ FOR SOME OF MICRO EARNINGS REPORTS OF MICRO EARNINGS REPORTS VERSUS CORPORATE STRATEGY TO VERSUS CORPORATE STRATEGY TO ADAPT AND ADJUST. DANI:

ADAPT AND ADJUST. DANI: YOU HAVE SEEN IT ALL THROUGHOUT YOU HAVE SEEN IT ALL THROUGHOUT EARNINGS SEASON.

EARNINGS SEASON. ALL OF A SUDDEN THE FAST CASUAL ALL OF A SUDDEN THE FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT TO DOING POORLY, RESTAURANT TO DOING POORLY, DOES THAT MEAN EVERYBODY IS DOES THAT MEAN EVERYBODY IS DOING POORLY? DOING POORLY?

TJ MAX IS DOING WELL. TJ MAX IS DOING WELL.

KOHL'S IS DOING WELL. KOHL'S IS DOING WELL.

WALMART IS DOING WELL. WALMART IS DOING WELL.

IT IS A CHOOSE YOUR OWN IT IS A CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE DEPENDING ON ADVENTURE DEPENDING ON NARRATIVE YOU WANT TO BUILD. NARRATIVE YOU WANT TO BUILD.

LISA: LISA: EAT MORE PROTEIN. EAT MORE PROTEIN.

LET'S GET TO ANOTHER STORY LET'S GET TO ANOTHER STORY ELSEWHERE. ELSEWHERE. HERE IS VONNIE. HERE IS VONNIE.

ELSEWHERE. ELSEWHERE. HERE IS VONNIE. HERE IS VONNIE.

VONNIE: VONNIE: TENSIONS RISING BETWEEN CHINA TENSIONS RISING BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN OVER THE STATUS OF AND JAPAN OVER THE STATUS OF TAIWAN. TAIWAN.

PRESIDENT TRUMP HOLDING BACK TO PRESIDENT TRUMP HOLDING BACK TO BACK PHONE CALLS WITH THE BACK PHONE CALLS WITH THE LEADERS OF THOSE COUNTRIES. LEADERS OF THOSE COUNTRIES.

CHINA SANDY WAS INITIATED THE CHINA SANDY WAS INITIATED THE HOUR-LONG CALL WITH PRESIDENT HOUR-LONG CALL WITH PRESIDENT XI JINPING. XI JINPING. TRUMP THEN CALLED THE JAPAN

XI JINPING. XI JINPING. TRUMP THEN CALLED THE JAPAN TRUMP THEN CALLED THE JAPAN PRIME MINISTER TO REAFFIRM PRIME MINISTER TO REAFFIRM TIES. TIES. ANY SIGN THE U.S.

ANY SIGN THE U.S. IS SIDING WITH JAPAN COULD IS SIDING WITH JAPAN COULD JEOPARDIZE ITS TRADE TRUTHS JEOPARDIZE ITS TRADE TRUTHS WITH CHINA. WITH CHINA.

-- TRUCE WITH CHINA. -- TRUCE WITH CHINA.

A FEDERAL JUDGE HAS THROWN OUT A FEDERAL JUDGE HAS THROWN OUT CHARGES AGAINST JAMES CALL ME CHARGES AGAINST JAMES CALL ME -- JAMES COMEY AND LETITIA -- JAMES COMEY AND LETITIA JAMES. JAMES. THE PROSECUTOR WAS ILLEGALLY

JAMES. JAMES. THE PROSECUTOR WAS ILLEGALLY THE PROSECUTOR WAS ILLEGALLY APPOINTED. APPOINTED.

NEARLY TWO YEARS AFTER THE NEARLY TWO YEARS AFTER THE METER CALAMITY THAT PLUNGED METER CALAMITY THAT PLUNGED BOEING IN A CRISIS, THE COMPANY BOEING IN A CRISIS, THE COMPANY IS MAKING PROGRESS IN ITS WAR IS MAKING PROGRESS IN ITS WAR AGAINST DEFECTS. AGAINST DEFECTS.

AGAINST DEFECTS. AGAINST DEFECTS.

THE COMPANY'S EFFORTS INCLUDE THE COMPANY'S EFFORTS INCLUDE MEETINGS TO DISCUSS ON THE AND MEETINGS TO DISCUSS ON THE AND IRRITANTS. IRRITANTS.

IRRITANTS. IRRITANTS.

BOEING SAYS IT SEEING BOEING SAYS IT SEEING ENCOURAGING RESULTS IN IS ENCOURAGING RESULTS IN IS PLANNING TO HAVE AN OUTPUT OF PLANNING TO HAVE AN OUTPUT OF 60 JETS PER MONTH. 60 JETS PER MONTH. LISA: LISA:

BRINGING THE WAR TO A CLOSE. BRINGING THE WAR TO A CLOSE.

>> THE IDEA THAT THE UNITED >> THE IDEA THAT THE UNITED STATES IS NOT ENGAGING WITH STATES IS NOT ENGAGING WITH BOTH SIDES EQUALLY IN THE WAR BOTH SIDES EQUALLY IN THE WAR TO BRING IT TO AN END IS A TO BRING IT TO AN END IS A COMPLETE AND TOTAL FALLACY.

COMPLETE AND TOTAL FALLACY. THAT CANNOT BE FURTHER FROM THE THAT CANNOT BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. TRUTH. LISA: LISA:

JEANETTE LOWE JOINS US NEXT. JEANETTE LOWE JOINS US NEXT. ♪ ♪

LISA: LISA: LESS THAN AN HOUR UNTIL ADP LESS THAN AN HOUR UNTIL ADP TUESDAY. TUESDAY.

IT DOESN'T HAVE THE SAME KIND IT DOESN'T HAVE THE SAME KIND OF RING BUT WE WILL GET ADP OF RING BUT WE WILL GET ADP PAYROLLS DATA COMING OUT AT PAYROLLS DATA COMING OUT AT 8:15 THAT MIGHT GIVE US A 8:15 THAT MIGHT GIVE US A LITTLE BIT OF A CURRENT LOOK AT LITTLE BIT OF A CURRENT LOOK AT THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY. THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY.

STOCKS DOING NOTHING. STOCKS DOING NOTHING.

FUTURES BASICALLY UNCHANGED ON FUTURES BASICALLY UNCHANGED ON THE S&P. THE S&P. WE ARE TRACING LOSSES FROM

THE S&P. THE S&P. WE ARE TRACING LOSSES FROM WE ARE TRACING LOSSES FROM EARLIER. EARLIER.

10-YEAR YIELDS MARGINALLY 10-YEAR YIELDS MARGINALLY HIGHER BUT LOWER THAN THIS TIME HIGHER BUT LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY. 4.03%. 4.03%.

YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY. 4.03%. 4.03%.

CRUDE OFF BY ABOUT .4%. CRUDE OFF BY ABOUT .4%.

>> THE IDEA THAT THE UNITED >> THE IDEA THAT THE UNITED STATES IS NOT ENGAGING WITH STATES IS NOT ENGAGING WITH BOTH SIDES EQUALLY IN THE WAR BOTH SIDES EQUALLY IN THE WAR TO BRING IT TO AN END IS A TO BRING IT TO AN END IS A COMPLETE AND TOTAL FALLACY.

COMPLETE AND TOTAL FALLACY. THAT COULD NOT B FURTHER FROM THAT COULD NOT B FURTHER FROM THE TRUT -- THAT COULD NOT BE THE TRUT -- THAT COULD NOT BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH.

FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. THE PRESIDENT HAS WORKED WITH THE PRESIDENT HAS WORKED WITH BOTH SIDES AN ENDLESS PHONE BOTH SIDES AN ENDLESS PHONE CALLS, ENDLESS MEETINGS TO TRY CALLS, ENDLESS MEETINGS TO TRY TO BRING THE WAR TO A CLOSE.

TO BRING THE WAR TO A CLOSE. LISA: LISA:

PEACE TALKS GAINING MOMENTUM, PEACE TALKS GAINING MOMENTUM, SOURCES TELLING US TO BLOOMBERG SOURCES TELLING US TO BLOOMBERG THAT A U.S. THAT A U.S. OFFICIAL IS MEETING A RUSSIAN OFFICIAL IS MEETING A RUSSIAN DELEGATION IN ABU DHABI AHEAD DELEGATION IN ABU DHABI AHEAD OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S THANKSGIVING DEADLINE.

THANKSGIVING DEADLINE. WHAT IS YOUR SENSE OF WHERE WE WHAT IS YOUR SENSE OF WHERE WE ARE? ARE?

HOW CLOSE ARE WE ACTUALLY HOW CLOSE ARE WE ACTUALLY GETTING TO SOME RESOLUTION IN GETTING TO SOME RESOLUTION IN THIS PUSH FOR A PEACE THIS PUSH FOR A PEACE NEGOTIATION? NEGOTIATION?

NEGOTIATION? NEGOTIATION?

MIKA MIKA : THE WHITE HOUSE IS ADAMANT : THE WHITE HOUSE IS ADAMANT BRINGING THE WAR TO AN END BUT BRINGING THE WAR TO AN END BUT THEY HAVE SOFTENED THAT THEY HAVE SOFTENED THAT THANKSGIVING DAY DEADLINE WHICH THANKSGIVING DAY DEADLINE WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY A COUPLE OF DAYS IS OBVIOUSLY A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY. AWAY.

I KNOW THEY ARE TRYING TO I KNOW THEY ARE TRYING TO STRESS AND EMPHASIZE THAT WE STRESS AND EMPHASIZE THAT WE HEARD KAROLINE LEAVITT SAID HEARD KAROLINE LEAVITT SAID THEY ARE NEGOTIATING STRONGLY THEY ARE NEGOTIATING STRONGLY WITH BOTH SIDES. WITH BOTH SIDES.

THE WHITE HOUSE IS FACING THE WHITE HOUSE IS FACING CRITICISM, SAYING THEY'RE CRITICISM, SAYING THEY'RE PLAYING TOO MUCH INTO WHAT PLAYING TOO MUCH INTO WHAT RUSSIA WANTS. RUSSIA WANTS. WE WILL SEE WHAT THEY ARE DOING

RUSSIA WANTS. RUSSIA WANTS. WE WILL SEE WHAT THEY ARE DOING WE WILL SEE WHAT THEY ARE DOING TO WORK OUT THOSE KINKS.

TO WORK OUT THOSE KINKS. LISA: LISA: DO WE HAVE A SENSE OF WHAT DO WE HAVE A SENSE OF WHAT EUROPE'S ROLE IS TO GET BACK ON EUROPE'S ROLE IS TO GET BACK ON THE STAGE WHEN TRYING TO THE STAGE WHEN TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE DISCUSSIONS UNDERSTAND WHAT THE DISCUSSIONS ARE AND WHO IS HAVING ARE AND WHO IS HAVING DISCUSSIONS WITH WHOM?

DISCUSSIONS WITH WHOM? JEANETTE: JEANETTE: -- MICA: -- MICA: THE WHITE HOUSE IS THERE THE WHITE HOUSE IS THERE WORKING CLOSELY TO KEEP WORKING CLOSELY TO KEEP EVERYBODY IN COMMUNICATION. EVERYBODY IN COMMUNICATION.

THERE'S A CONSENSUS THAT THERE'S A CONSENSUS THAT EVERYBODY WANTS THE WAR TO END EVERYBODY WANTS THE WAR TO END IT I THINK THE U.S. IT I THINK THE U.S.

IS WORKING STRONGLY WITH THE IS WORKING STRONGLY WITH THE EUROPEAN ALLIES IN TERMS OF EUROPEAN ALLIES IN TERMS OF REBUILDING UKRAINE. REBUILDING UKRAINE.

REBUILDING UKRAINE. REBUILDING UKRAINE.

RIGHT NOW THEY ARE NEGOTIATING. RIGHT NOW THEY ARE NEGOTIATING.

THE DEAL KEEPS CHANGING AND THE DEAL KEEPS CHANGING AND SHIFTING. SHIFTING. WE WILL SEE WHAT COMES BUT

SHIFTING. SHIFTING. WE WILL SEE WHAT COMES BUT WE WILL SEE WHAT COMES BUT TALKS ARE ONGOING AND THE TALKS ARE ONGOING AND THE ADMINISTRATION BELIEVES IT IS ADMINISTRATION BELIEVES IT IS MAKING STRONG PROGRESS HERE.

MAKING STRONG PROGRESS HERE. LISA: LISA:

THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

JEANETTE LOWE WRITING, "IT'S A JEANETTE LOWE WRITING, "IT'S A QUESTION WITH THE NEGOTIATED QUESTION WITH THE NEGOTIATED CHANGES CAN HOLD AND IF PUTIN CHANGES CAN HOLD AND IF PUTIN WILL AGREE TO THE ULTIMATE WILL AGREE TO THE ULTIMATE PLAN." PLAN." WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHAT HAS

PLAN." PLAN." WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHAT HAS WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHAT HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE INITIAL BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE INITIAL 28 POINTS THAT COULD 28 POINTS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING UKRAINE POTENTIALLY BRING UKRAINE CLOSER TO AGREEING TO THIS?

CLOSER TO AGREEING TO THIS? JEANETTE: JEANETTE:

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS PUSHING THINGS MORE TOWARDS PUSHING THINGS MORE TOWARDS UKRAINE'S FAVOR VERSUS UKRAINE'S FAVOR VERSUS RUSSIA'S.

RUSSIA'S. ALLOWING UKRAINE'S MILITARY TO ALLOWING UKRAINE'S MILITARY TO BE LARGER THAN IT WAS UNDER THE BE LARGER THAN IT WAS UNDER THE 28 POINT PLAN. 28 POINT PLAN.

POTENTIAL FOR IT TO STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO STILL BE ALLOWED TO ENTER INTO NATO AT ALLOWED TO ENTER INTO NATO AT SOME POINT IF THERE IS SOME POINT IF THERE IS AGREEMENT. AGREEMENT. TWO ALLOWED NATO TROOPS TO BE

AGREEMENT. AGREEMENT. TWO ALLOWED NATO TROOPS TO BE TWO ALLOWED NATO TROOPS TO BE IN UKRAINE NOT ON A PERMANENT IN UKRAINE NOT ON A PERMANENT BASIS. BASIS.

THOSE ARE SOME THINGS THAT THOSE ARE SOME THINGS THAT ALLOWED UKRAINE TO HAVE A ALLOWED UKRAINE TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE STABILITY WITH LITTLE MORE STABILITY WITH REGARDS TO ITS MILITARY, BUT REGARDS TO ITS MILITARY, BUT ALSO MORE SECURITY GUARANTEES ALSO MORE SECURITY GUARANTEES LONGER-TERM. LONGER-TERM. WE WILL SEE IF THAT HOLDS.

LONGER-TERM. LONGER-TERM. WE WILL SEE IF THAT HOLDS.

WE WILL SEE IF THAT HOLDS. ONE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT ONE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT PUTIN REALLY WILL AGREE TO A PUTIN REALLY WILL AGREE TO A DEAL. DEAL.

HE CAME TO THE ALASKA SUMMIT, HE CAME TO THE ALASKA SUMMIT, MADE IT SEEM LIKE THERE WOULD MADE IT SEEM LIKE THERE WOULD BE PROGRESS MADE WITH PRESIDENT BE PROGRESS MADE WITH PRESIDENT AND THEN BASICALLY THE TALKS AND THEN BASICALLY THE TALKS WENT NOWHERE. WENT NOWHERE. THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WENT NOWHERE. WENT NOWHERE. THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WE HAVE NOT SEEN PUTIN SAY THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN PUTIN SAY THAT THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING HE THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING HE WOULD AGREE TO EVEN WHEN IT WOULD AGREE TO EVEN WHEN IT WAS THE ORIGINAL 28 POINT PLAN. WAS THE ORIGINAL 28 POINT PLAN.

DANI: DANI: GIVEN AFTER THIS OR AS THE GIVEN AFTER THIS OR AS THE NEGOTIATING HAS BEEN GOING ON NEGOTIATING HAS BEEN GOING ON WE HAVE A CALL YESTERDAY WE HAVE A CALL YESTERDAY BETWEEN PRESIDENTS TRUMP AND BETWEEN PRESIDENTS TRUMP AND XI. XI. WILL THEY BE ABLE TO EXERT WILL THEY BE ABLE TO EXERT PRESSURE ON RUSSIA TO ACCEPT PRESSURE ON RUSSIA TO ACCEPT ANY SORT OF DEAL?

ANY SORT OF DEAL? JEANETTE: JEANETTE: IT'S INTERESTING.

IT'S INTERESTING. ONE THING WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING ONE THING WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IS WHAT'S HAPPENING IN IS WHAT'S HAPPENING IN VENEZUELA AND IF THAT'S AN VENEZUELA AND IF THAT'S AN EFFORT TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON EFFORT TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON RUSSIA TO ACCEPT THE DEAL.

RUSSIA TO ACCEPT THE DEAL. THERE COULD BE SOME PRESSURE THERE COULD BE SOME PRESSURE WITH REGARDS TO CHINA TO TRY TO WITH REGARDS TO CHINA TO TRY TO GET THEM TO GET RUSSIA TO GET THEM TO GET RUSSIA TO ACCEPT THE DEAL AS WELL.

ACCEPT THE DEAL AS WELL. IT COULD ALSO BE CHINA WATCHING IT COULD ALSO BE CHINA WATCHING WHAT IS HAPPENING.

WHAT IS HAPPENING. MAYBE THEY HAD NOT BEEN MAYBE THEY HAD NOT BEEN INVOLVED IN THE DISCUSSIONS AND INVOLVED IN THE DISCUSSIONS AND WANT TO MAKE SURE THEY WERE AT WANT TO MAKE SURE THEY WERE AT THE TABLE AND SEEING WHAT MIGHT THE TABLE AND SEEING WHAT MIGHT BE IN PLAY WITH UKRAINE AND BE IN PLAY WITH UKRAINE AND THINKING THAT THERE MIGHT BE THINKING THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME SIMILAR TACTIC THAT MIGHT

SOME SIMILAR TACTIC THAT MIGHT BE TAKEN WITH REGARDS TO TAIWAN BE TAKEN WITH REGARDS TO TAIWAN SINCE THAT WAS A PIECE OF THE SINCE THAT WAS A PIECE OF THE CONVERSATION THEY HELD CONVERSATION THEY HELD YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY.

I THINK TRUMP IS TRYING TO PUSH I THINK TRUMP IS TRYING TO PUSH RUSSIA TO GET TO THE DEAL. RUSSIA TO GET TO THE DEAL.

WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT ULTIMATELY IS SUCCESSFUL BUT HE ULTIMATELY IS SUCCESSFUL BUT HE DOES WANT THE WORD AND. DOES WANT THE WORD AND.

HE ONCE LOWER OIL PRICES -- HE ONCE LOWER OIL PRICES -- WANTS THE WAR TO END. WANTS THE WAR TO END.

AND BREAKING THE LINKAGE APART AND BREAKING THE LINKAGE APART AS HE TRIED TO REMOVE THE AS HE TRIED TO REMOVE THE STRENGTH OF CHINA OVERALL. STRENGTH OF CHINA OVERALL.

ALSO FOCUSING ON DECOUPLING THE ALSO FOCUSING ON DECOUPLING THE U.S. U.S. FROM CHINA. FROM CHINA.

U.S. U.S. FROM CHINA. FROM CHINA.

ALL THOSE ARE COMING INTO PLAY ALL THOSE ARE COMING INTO PLAY HERE. HERE. I THINK ULTIMATELY IT WAS

HERE. HERE. I THINK ULTIMATELY IT WAS I THINK ULTIMATELY IT WAS PROBABLY MORE ABOUT TRADE AND PROBABLY MORE ABOUT TRADE AND TAIWAN AND ISSUES WITH JAPAN AT TAIWAN AND ISSUES WITH JAPAN AT THIS POINT. THIS POINT.

MAYBE LESS SO ABOUT UKRAINE. MAYBE LESS SO ABOUT UKRAINE.

DANI: DANI: WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE DOES IT WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE DOES IT MAKE A DIFFERENCE THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE THAT UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATIONS ARE UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATIONS ARE HAPPENING WHEN YOU HAVE TRADE HAPPENING WHEN YOU HAVE TRADE REPRESENTED JAMIESON GREER AND REPRESENTED JAMIESON GREER AND U.S. U.S.

COMMERCE SECRETARY HOWARD COMMERCE SECRETARY HOWARD LUTNICK IN BRUSSELS TRYING TO LUTNICK IN BRUSSELS TRYING TO NEGOTIATE YET AGAIN WITH THE NEGOTIATE YET AGAIN WITH THE EUROPEANS ON TRADE DEALS WITH EUROPEANS ON TRADE DEALS WITH THE U.S.? THE U.S.?

THE U.S.? THE U.S.?

JEANETTE: JEANETTE: IT'S INTERESTING THAT THE IT'S INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEANS WERE CAUGHT OFF GUARD EUROPEANS WERE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE ORIGINAL 28 POINT PLAN.

BY THE ORIGINAL 28 POINT PLAN. THINGS ARE ALSO WITHIN THE THINGS ARE ALSO WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION FOCUSED ON VERY ADMINISTRATION FOCUSED ON VERY SEPARATE TRACKS AT THE SAME SEPARATE TRACKS AT THE SAME TIME. TIME.

THINGS ARE DEFINITELY IN THEIR THINGS ARE DEFINITELY IN THEIR OWN LANE AND THEY HAVE SOME OWN LANE AND THEY HAVE SOME SPILLOVER EFFECTS. SPILLOVER EFFECTS.

SPILLOVER EFFECTS. SPILLOVER EFFECTS.

THIS HAS BEEN SOMETHING WITH THIS HAS BEEN SOMETHING WITH REGARDS TO THE EU AND THE U.S. REGARDS TO THE EU AND THE U.S.

THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF TENSION WITH THE BIT OF TENSION WITH THE EUROPEANS THINKING WITH THE EUROPEANS THINKING WITH THE STEEL AND ALUMINUM DERIVATIVE STEEL AND ALUMINUM DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS AND THINGS LIKE THAT PRODUCTS AND THINGS LIKE THAT NATURE IT SEEMS LIKE THE 15% NATURE IT SEEMS LIKE THE 15% TARIFF RATE THEY ULTIMATELY HAD TARIFF RATE THEY ULTIMATELY HAD

IS NOT GOING TO HOLD AND NOT IS NOT GOING TO HOLD AND NOT GOING TO BE AS BENEFICIAL TO GOING TO BE AS BENEFICIAL TO THEM. THEM. THEY ARE LOOKING FOR OTHER

THEM. THEM. THEY ARE LOOKING FOR OTHER THEY ARE LOOKING FOR OTHER TARIFF EXEMPTIONS.

TARIFF EXEMPTIONS. THINKING ABOUT THINGS LIKE WINE THINKING ABOUT THINGS LIKE WINE AND SPIRITS AND PASTA.

AND SPIRITS AND PASTA.

THERE IS THAT'S EVERYTHING. THERE IS THAT'S EVERYTHING.

I WOULD TEASE APART THAT THIS I WOULD TEASE APART THAT THIS IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE EFFORT IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE EFFORT IN GAZA THAT WAS RELATIVELY IN GAZA THAT WAS RELATIVELY SUCCESSFUL. SUCCESSFUL. THE AT ADMINISTRATION ONE TO

SUCCESSFUL. SUCCESSFUL. THE AT ADMINISTRATION ONE TO THE AT ADMINISTRATION ONE TO TAKE THAT AND PUT IT TOWARDS TAKE THAT AND PUT IT TOWARDS GETTING SOME SORT OF DEAL WITH GETTING SOME SORT OF DEAL WITH REGARDS TO UKRAINE.

REGARDS TO UKRAINE. THERE'S OBVIOUSLY THIS PRESSURE THERE'S OBVIOUSLY THIS PRESSURE ON RUSSIA WITH REGARDS TO OIL ON RUSSIA WITH REGARDS TO OIL WITH VENEZUELA. WITH VENEZUELA.

NOW THEY ARE TRYING TO SEE IF NOW THEY ARE TRYING TO SEE IF WE CAN ACTUALLY GET TO A DEAL. WE CAN ACTUALLY GET TO A DEAL.

I THINK PUTIN IS THE BIGGER I THINK PUTIN IS THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK. QUESTION MARK. LISA: LISA:

QUESTION MARK. QUESTION MARK. LISA: LISA:

I TRY TO PARSE OUT COST ISSUES I TRY TO PARSE OUT COST ISSUES AND DOMESTIC WIN TO CELEBRATE AND DOMESTIC WIN TO CELEBRATE INTERNATIONAL VICTORIES AND HOW INTERNATIONAL VICTORIES AND HOW MUCH IT'S AN EFFORT TO WORK MUCH IT'S AN EFFORT TO WORK WITH ALLIES AND GET SOME SORT WITH ALLIES AND GET SOME SORT OF UNDERSTANDING THAT CAN HOLD. OF UNDERSTANDING THAT CAN HOLD.

HOW MUCH OF IT IS A HOW MUCH OF IT IS A COST-OF-LIVING ISSUE THAT MAKES COST-OF-LIVING ISSUE THAT MAKES THE U.S. THE U.S. MORE AMENABLE TO POTENTIALLY

THE U.S. THE U.S. MORE AMENABLE TO POTENTIALLY MORE AMENABLE TO POTENTIALLY LOWERING TARIFFS OR BEING MORE LOWERING TARIFFS OR BEING MORE CORDIAL AND DISCUSSIONS IN CORDIAL AND DISCUSSIONS IN ORDER TO LOWER ANYTHING PEOPLE ORDER TO LOWER ANYTHING PEOPLE PAY BACK HOME? PAY BACK HOME?

JEANETTE: JEANETTE: ONE THING IS THAT THE OIL ONE THING IS THAT THE OIL PIECE, EVEN BEFORE THE PIECE, EVEN BEFORE THE AFFORDABLE ISSUE -- AFFORDABLE ISSUE -- AFFORDABILITY ISSUE, THE OIL AFFORDABILITY ISSUE, THE OIL PREMIUM, THIS WAS SOMETHING PREMIUM, THIS WAS SOMETHING TRUMP POINTED OUT EARLY ON IN TRUMP POINTED OUT EARLY ON IN HIS ADMINISTRATION.

HIS ADMINISTRATION. THIS HAS BEEN HIS GOAL HERE.

THIS HAS BEEN HIS GOAL HERE. IT IS LESS ABOUT AFFORDABILITY IT IS LESS ABOUT AFFORDABILITY AND MORE ABOUT GETTING THE WAR AND MORE ABOUT GETTING THE WAR ENDED IN HAVING LOWER OIL ENDED IN HAVING LOWER OIL PRICES. PRICES.

THE TARIFF EXTENSIONS WERE THE TARIFF EXTENSIONS WERE ABOUT LOWERING PRICES BUT ABOUT LOWERING PRICES BUT ADMINISTRATION HAD TO FLAG THIS ADMINISTRATION HAD TO FLAG THIS EARLY ON. EARLY ON. YOU HAD SECRETARY LUTNICK

EARLY ON. EARLY ON. YOU HAD SECRETARY LUTNICK YOU HAD SECRETARY LUTNICK TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THE U.S.

TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THE U.S. DOES NOT GROW MANGOES AND IT DOES NOT GROW MANGOES AND IT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE EXEMPT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE EXEMPT GOODS LIKE THAT FROM THE GOODS LIKE THAT FROM THE TARIFFS. TARIFFS.

THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE ENDED UP. THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE ENDED UP.

IT HAPPENED AS THE CONVERSATION IT HAPPENED AS THE CONVERSATION ABOUT AFFORDABILITY HAS GROWN. ABOUT AFFORDABILITY HAS GROWN.

THERE IS THAT COMPONENT TO IT THERE IS THAT COMPONENT TO IT BUT THE FACT THEY DECIDED TO BUT THE FACT THEY DECIDED TO MAKE EXEMPTIONS ACROSS THE MAKE EXEMPTIONS ACROSS THE WORLD FOR ALL THOSE GOODS. WORLD FOR ALL THOSE GOODS.

EVEN IF YOU GET SOME ADDITIONAL EVEN IF YOU GET SOME ADDITIONAL EXEMPTIONS WITH EUROPE AND EXEMPTIONS WITH EUROPE AND BECAUSE COMING DOWN, IT IS NOT BECAUSE COMING DOWN, IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE. SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE.

SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE. SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE.

WE LOOKED THROUGH THE TARIFF WE LOOKED THROUGH THE TARIFF EXEMPTIONS THAT CAME OUT AND EXEMPTIONS THAT CAME OUT AND IT ONLY REDUCED TARIFFS ON AN IT ONLY REDUCED TARIFFS ON AN AGGREGATE BY $7 BILLION. AGGREGATE BY $7 BILLION.

YOU STILL HAVE $300 BILLION IN YOU STILL HAVE $300 BILLION IN PLACE. PLACE. IT WILL NOT LOWER OVERALL

PLACE. PLACE. IT WILL NOT LOWER OVERALL IT WILL NOT LOWER OVERALL PRICES. PRICES.

IT IS MORE TARGETED SPECIFIC IT IS MORE TARGETED SPECIFIC FOOD ITEMS AND THE FOOD ITEMS AND THE AFFORDABILITY ASPECT. AFFORDABILITY ASPECT. LISA:

AFFORDABILITY ASPECT. AFFORDABILITY ASPECT. LISA:

LISA: JEANETTE LOWE, THANK YOU SO JEANETTE LOWE, THANK YOU SO MUCH. MUCH.

AFFORDABILITY FRONT FOCUSED AFFORDABILITY FRONT FOCUSED RIGHT NOW. RIGHT NOW. WE HEARD FROM RETAILERS ABOUT

RIGHT NOW. RIGHT NOW. WE HEARD FROM RETAILERS ABOUT WE HEARD FROM RETAILERS ABOUT HOW THEY ARE HANDLING IT.

HOW THEY ARE HANDLING IT. YOU LOOK AT THE PERFORMANCE OF YOU LOOK AT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SHARES AFTER THE REPORT THE SHARES AFTER THE REPORT EARNINGS. EARNINGS.

CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE. CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE.

EVERYTHING IS WITH SOME EVERYTHING IS WITH SOME DELIVERING AND SOME TALKING DELIVERING AND SOME TALKING ABOUT EFFICIENCIES AND ABOUT EFFICIENCIES AND POTENTIALLY CLOSING SOME POTENTIALLY CLOSING SOME FOOTLOCKER STORES. FOOTLOCKER STORES. DANI: DANI:

FOOTLOCKER STORES. FOOTLOCKER STORES. DANI: DANI:

EVEN THOUGH THEY BOOSTED EVEN THOUGH THEY BOOSTED OUTLOOK FOR A SECOND QUARTER OUTLOOK FOR A SECOND QUARTER AND SHARES ARE BEING PUNISHED. AND SHARES ARE BEING PUNISHED.

EVERYONE IS LOOKING FOR CRACKS EVERYONE IS LOOKING FOR CRACKS IN THE FACT THEY MIGHT NEED TO IN THE FACT THEY MIGHT NEED TO TURN TO EFFICIENCIES. TURN TO EFFICIENCIES.

MAYBE THAT IS A CRACKER DICK’S MAYBE THAT IS A CRACKER DICK’S SPORTING GOODS. SPORTING GOODS. LISA: LISA:

SPORTING GOODS. SPORTING GOODS. LISA: LISA:

PEOPLE SAY A I MADE US CUT PEOPLE SAY A I MADE US CUT JOBS.

JOBS. IS THAT REALLY THE IS THAT REALLY THE STORY? STORY?

WE ARE LOOKING TO CUT COSTS AND WE ARE LOOKING TO CUT COSTS AND PRESERVE OUR MARGINS. PRESERVE OUR MARGINS.

COMING UP, WE TALK ABOUT THAT COMING UP, WE TALK ABOUT THAT WITH LAUREN MURPHY OF WELLS WITH LAUREN MURPHY OF WELLS FARGO. FARGO. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE

FARGO. FARGO. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ." ." ♪ ♪ LISA: LISA: TWO HOURS AWAY FROM THE OPENING TWO HOURS AWAY FROM THE OPENING BELL AND FUTURES TRYING TO FIND BELL AND FUTURES TRYING TO FIND SOME KIND OF DIRECTION AFTER SOME KIND OF DIRECTION AFTER BEING DOWN IS MUCH AS .2% ON

BEING DOWN IS MUCH AS .2% ON THE S&P. THE S&P.

NOW ESSENTIALLY FLAT. NOW ESSENTIALLY FLAT.

AS I FUTURES HAVE RETRACED. AS I FUTURES HAVE RETRACED.

YESTERDAY WAS THE BIGGEST YESTERDAY WAS THE BIGGEST ONE-DAY POP GOING BACK SIX ONE-DAY POP GOING BACK SIX WEEKS. WEEKS. THE RUSSELL 2000 TURNING

WEEKS. WEEKS. THE RUSSELL 2000 TURNING THE RUSSELL 2000 TURNING AROUND. AROUND.

POSSIBLY ON THE HEELS OF SOME POSSIBLY ON THE HEELS OF SOME COMMENTS FROM FED OFFICIALS. COMMENTS FROM FED OFFICIALS.

YOU CAN SEE IN THE BOND SPACE YOU CAN SEE IN THE BOND SPACE ON THE FRONT END, WE SAW MARY ON THE FRONT END, WE SAW MARY DALY IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE DALY IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE WALL STREET JOURNAL SAY SHE WALL STREET JOURNAL SAY SHE WOULD SUPPORT A FED RATE CUT WOULD SUPPORT A FED RATE CUT NEXT MONTH. NEXT MONTH. SHE'S NOT A VOTING MEMBER BUT

NEXT MONTH. NEXT MONTH. SHE'S NOT A VOTING MEMBER BUT SHE'S NOT A VOTING MEMBER BUT CONSIDERED AN ALLY OF FED CHAIR CONSIDERED AN ALLY OF FED CHAIR JAY POWELL. JAY POWELL.

THERE HAS BEEN CHRIS WALLER WHO THERE HAS BEEN CHRIS WALLER WHO WANTS TO GO. WANTS TO GO. JOHN WILLIAMS HAS INDICATED.

JOHN WILLIAMS HAS INDICATED. THAT'S WHAT YOU ARE SEEING A THAT'S WHAT YOU ARE SEEING A BIT INTO THAT SPACE.

BIT INTO THAT SPACE. HERE ARE THE MORNING MOVERS HERE ARE THE MORNING MOVERS WITH VONNIE QUINN WITH TWO WITH VONNIE QUINN WITH TWO HOURS FROM THE CASH OPEN.

HOURS FROM THE CASH OPEN. VONNIE: VONNIE: TPU VERSUS GPU.

TPU VERSUS GPU. WOULD COMPANIES EVEN WANT TO WOULD COMPANIES EVEN WANT TO SWITCH? SWITCH?

APPLE IS IN THE NEWS, UP 4.25%. APPLE IS IN THE NEWS, UP 4.25%.

META AND THE TALKS TO BY META AND THE TALKS TO BY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WITH THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WITH THE GOOGLE'S TPU'S. GOOGLE'S TPU'S. THAT COULD HAVE GONE THE OTHER

GOOGLE'S TPU'S. GOOGLE'S TPU'S. THAT COULD HAVE GONE THE OTHER THAT COULD HAVE GONE THE OTHER WAY AND BOUGHT NVIDIA'S GPU'S.

WAY AND BOUGHT NVIDIA'S GPU'S. ARE TPU'S BETTER?

ARE TPU'S BETTER? IS IT THE BEGINNING OF THE END IS IT THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE NVIDIA DOMINANCE?

OF THE NVIDIA DOMINANCE? NVIDIA DOWN ABOUT 3.5%.

NVIDIA DOWN ABOUT 3.5%. AMD DOWN 2.8%. AMD DOWN 2.8%.

ALPHABET SHARES RISING. ALPHABET SHARES RISING.

LET'S GET TO THE RETAILERS NOW LET'S GET TO THE RETAILERS NOW BECAUSE WE HAD MANY REPORTS BECAUSE WE HAD MANY REPORTS TODAY. TODAY. KOHL'S UP 22%. KOHL'S UP 22%.

TODAY. TODAY. KOHL'S UP 22%. KOHL'S UP 22%.

THE INTERIM CEO MICHAEL BENDER THE INTERIM CEO MICHAEL BENDER HAS REALLY PROVEN HIMSELF IN HAS REALLY PROVEN HIMSELF IN THE THIRD QUARTER. THE THIRD QUARTER.

DEFINITELY STABILIZING KOHL'S. DEFINITELY STABILIZING KOHL'S.

HE'S BEEN NAMED FULL CEO AND IS HE'S BEEN NAMED FULL CEO AND IS IN THAT POSITION FROM NOW ON. IN THAT POSITION FROM NOW ON.

SALES WERE STILL DOWN BUT ONLY SALES WERE STILL DOWN BUT ONLY BY 1.7%. BY 1.7%. THE ESTIMATE WAS A DECLINE OF

BY 1.7%. BY 1.7%. THE ESTIMATE WAS A DECLINE OF THE ESTIMATE WAS A DECLINE OF 3.9%. 3.9%.

FOR THE FULL YEAR THE OUTLOOK FOR THE FULL YEAR THE OUTLOOK IS NOW COMP SALES DOWN 2.5% TO IS NOW COMP SALES DOWN 2.5% TO 3% AS OPPOSED TO DOWN 3% TO 4%. 3% AS OPPOSED TO DOWN 3% TO 4%.

DIFFERENT STORY AT DICK’S DIFFERENT STORY AT DICK’S SPORTING GOODS. SPORTING GOODS. DOWN ABOUT 10% ON THE YEAR,

SPORTING GOODS. SPORTING GOODS. DOWN ABOUT 10% ON THE YEAR, DOWN ABOUT 10% ON THE YEAR, ANOTHER 8.5% TODAY.

ANOTHER 8.5% TODAY. I I

CONSUMER SENTIMENT DOWN IN CONSUMER SENTIMENT DOWN IN NOVEMBER AS WE KNOW. NOVEMBER AS WE KNOW.

HOW DOES THIS BRING FOOTLOCKER HOW DOES THIS BRING FOOTLOCKER INTO THE EQUATION? INTO THE EQUATION?

CNBC SAYS IT WILL SELL EXISTING CNBC SAYS IT WILL SELL EXISTING FOOTLOCKER STORES. FOOTLOCKER STORES.

FOOTLOCKER STORES. FOOTLOCKER STORES.

THAT IS ONE OF THE PARTS OF THAT IS ONE OF THE PARTS OF THIS STORY. THIS STORY. ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE

THIS STORY. THIS STORY. ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE MISSED AT $2.07.

MISSED AT $2.07. THE FULL-YEAR FORECAST WAS THE FULL-YEAR FORECAST WAS BOOSTED BUT INVESTORS NOT BOOSTED BUT INVESTORS NOT BUYING THIS PARTICULAR BUYING THIS PARTICULAR IDIOSYNCRATIC RETAIL STORY.

IDIOSYNCRATIC RETAIL STORY. LISA: LISA:

THERE IS A QUESTION OF THERE IS A QUESTION OF ABERCROMBIE & FITCH AS WELL. ABERCROMBIE & FITCH AS WELL.

SHARES POPPING 10% AFTER A SHARES POPPING 10% AFTER A REPORT OF BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT OF BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED EARNINGS ACROSS THE BOARD. EARNINGS ACROSS THE BOARD.

YOU ARE SEEING DANI THAT THE YOU ARE SEEING DANI THAT THE THIRD QUARTER COMP SALES CAME THIRD QUARTER COMP SALES CAME IN NOT EXACTLY WELL. IN NOT EXACTLY WELL.

THEY CAME IN BELOW BUT YOU DID THEY CAME IN BELOW BUT YOU DID SEE NET SALES INCREASE AND SOME SEE NET SALES INCREASE AND SOME COMMENTARY SAYING PEOPLE ARE COMMENTARY SAYING PEOPLE ARE REALLY BUYING MORE STRONGLY REALLY BUYING MORE STRONGLY HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAYS. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAYS. DANI:

DANI: IT DOES CONTRAST WITH WHAT WE IT DOES CONTRAST WITH WHAT WE HEARD ELSEWHERE.

HEARD ELSEWHERE. YOU HAVE HAD VONNIE TALKING TO YOU HAVE HAD VONNIE TALKING TO HIM AT DICK’S SPORTING GOODS HIM AT DICK’S SPORTING GOODS TRYING TO CLOSE SOME OF THEIR TRYING TO CLOSE SOME OF THEIR FOOTLOCKER LOCATIONS.

FOOTLOCKER LOCATIONS. IT SPEAKS TO THE MOMENT WHERE IT SPEAKS TO THE MOMENT WHERE IF THEY ARE REALLY CHANGING IF THEY ARE REALLY CHANGING THEIR LINEUP OR YOU LOOK AT THEIR LINEUP OR YOU LOOK AT GAP, THERE IS MONEY TO BE GAP, THERE IS MONEY TO BE SPENT. SPENT.

IT'S A STORY EVOLVING FOR THE IT'S A STORY EVOLVING FOR THE PAST FEW YEARS. PAST FEW YEARS. THE CONSUMER HAS MONEY TO SPEND THE CONSUMER HAS MONEY TO SPEND BUT IT'S CHOOSY WHICH MAKES IT BUT IT'S CHOOSY WHICH MAKES IT HARD TO DEVELOP A NARRATIVE HARD TO DEVELOP A NARRATIVE ABOUT WHERE WE STAND.

ABOUT WHERE WE STAND. LISA: LISA: THE COMMENTARY FROM THE THE COMMENTARY FROM THE C-SUITE. C-SUITE.

RECORD THIRD QUARTER NET SALES RECORD THIRD QUARTER NET SALES WITH 7% GROWTH TO LAST YEAR. WITH 7% GROWTH TO LAST YEAR.

THE STRONG FINISH FOR BACK TO THE STRONG FINISH FOR BACK TO SCHOOL AND FALL SEASONAL SCHOOL AND FALL SEASONAL TRANSITIONED FRONT AND FOCUSED. TRANSITIONED FRONT AND FOCUSED.

META IN TALKS TO USE GOOGLE'S META IN TALKS TO USE GOOGLE'S AI CHIPS AND DATA CENTERS. AI CHIPS AND DATA CENTERS.

THE AGREEMENT WOULD HELP THE AGREEMENT WOULD HELP ESTABLISH GOOGLE'S CHIPS AS AN ESTABLISH GOOGLE'S CHIPS AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO NVIDIA'S. ALTERNATIVE TO NVIDIA'S.

IT HINGES ON WHETHER THEY IT HINGES ON WHETHER THEY DEMONSTRATEPOWER EFFICIENCY DEMONSTRATEPOWER EFFICIENCY AND COMPUTING MUSCLE. AND COMPUTING MUSCLE.

THAT IS WHAT VONNIE WAS TALKING THAT IS WHAT VONNIE WAS TALKING ABOUT WITH TPU'S. ABOUT WITH TPU'S.

"PEOPLE HAVE LOST THEIR MINDS "PEOPLE HAVE LOST THEIR MINDS WHEN IT COMES TO CONCERNS OVER WHEN IT COMES TO CONCERNS OVER PRIVATE CREDIT." PRIVATE CREDIT."

PRIVATE CREDIT." PRIVATE CREDIT."

REJECTING THE IDEA THAT ADDING REJECTING THE IDEA THAT ADDING PRIVATE ASSETS TO RETIREMENT PRIVATE ASSETS TO RETIREMENT AND INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS IS A AND INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS IS A SYSTEMIC RISK. SYSTEMIC RISK. THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE HEARD FROM

SYSTEMIC RISK. SYSTEMIC RISK. THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE HEARD FROM THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE HEARD FROM THE TITANS OF THE PRIVATE ASSET THE TITANS OF THE PRIVATE ASSET MANAGEMENT WORLD.

MANAGEMENT WORLD. DANI: DANI: YOU LOOK AT THE SHARE PRICE OF YOU LOOK AT THE SHARE PRICE OF THE PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES THE PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES OF PRIVATE CREDIT AND PRIVATE OF PRIVATE CREDIT AND PRIVATE EQUITY, THEY HAVE BEEN DAMAGED EQUITY, THEY HAVE BEEN DAMAGED BY IT. BY IT.

IT'S A FAIR ARGUMENT IT IS NOT IT'S A FAIR ARGUMENT IT IS NOT SYSTEMIC AND THERE CAN'T BE A SYSTEMIC AND THERE CAN'T BE A RUN ON THE BANK WITH THESE RUN ON THE BANK WITH THESE COMPANIES. COMPANIES. SOME OF WALLS DO DEMONSTRATE

COMPANIES. COMPANIES. SOME OF WALLS DO DEMONSTRATE SOME OF WALLS DO DEMONSTRATE THAT WE ARE LATE THAT WE ARE LATE PSYCHODYNAMICS. PSYCHODYNAMICS.

SO MUCH MONEY HAS BEEN POURED SO MUCH MONEY HAS BEEN POURED INTO THE SECTOR. INTO THE SECTOR.

IT IS NO LONGER A NICHE CORNER IT IS NO LONGER A NICHE CORNER OF FINANCE BECAUSE OF INSURANCE OF FINANCE BECAUSE OF INSURANCE MONEY, BECAUSE OF THE MOVING MONEY, BECAUSE OF THE MOVING THE WEALTH. THE WEALTH. HAS DUE DILIGENCE BEEN MOVED TO

THE WEALTH. THE WEALTH. HAS DUE DILIGENCE BEEN MOVED TO HAS DUE DILIGENCE BEEN MOVED TO THE WAYSIDE? THE WAYSIDE?

IT DOES BECOME MORE IT DOES BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE.

COMMONPLACE. LISA: LISA: EARLY CYCLE IN THE ECONOMY.

EARLY CYCLE IN THE ECONOMY. EARLY CYCLE IN SOME SORT OF EARLY CYCLE IN SOME SORT OF DOWNTURN. DOWNTURN.

I'M GETTING LOST IN TERMS OF I'M GETTING LOST IN TERMS OF WHAT CYCLE WE ARE IN BECAUSE I WHAT CYCLE WE ARE IN BECAUSE I HEARD FIVE THINGS THIS MORNING HEARD FIVE THINGS THIS MORNING ALONE. ALONE. DANI: DANI: THE CYCLE IS DEAD.

ALONE. ALONE. DANI: DANI: THE CYCLE IS DEAD.

THE CYCLE IS DEAD. MAYBE IT DOESN'T EXIST. LISA:

MAYBE IT DOESN'T EXIST. LISA: MAYBE WE WILL GET SOME MAYBE WE WILL GET SOME INCLINATION FROM U.S.

INCLINATION FROM U.S. ECONOMIC DATA. ECONOMIC DATA.

IT IS GETTING BACK ON TRACK, IT IS GETTING BACK ON TRACK, SORT OF. SORT OF.

SORT OF. SORT OF.

SEPTEMBER PCE NOW SET TO BE SEPTEMBER PCE NOW SET TO BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 5. RELEASED ON DECEMBER 5.

A SLEW OF RESULTS FROM THE A SLEW OF RESULTS FROM THE RETAILERS AS WE HAVE BEEN RETAILERS AS WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT GIVING INSIGHT TALKING ABOUT GIVING INSIGHT INTO THE U.S. INTO THE U.S. CONSUMER. CONSUMER.

STICKING WITH RETAIL, JUST DAYS STICKING WITH RETAIL, JUST DAYS AWAY FROM BLACK FRIDAY AND THE AWAY FROM BLACK FRIDAY AND THE UNOFFICIAL START OF THE HOLIDAY UNOFFICIAL START OF THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON. SHOPPING SEASON.

SHOPPING SEASON. SHOPPING SEASON.

LAUREN MURPHY OF WELLS FARGO LAUREN MURPHY OF WELLS FARGO WRITING, "HOLIDAY SHELVES ARE WRITING, "HOLIDAY SHELVES ARE FULL BUT PRICES MAY RISE IN FULL BUT PRICES MAY RISE IN 2026." 2026." THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

2026." 2026." THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET A WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET A READ ON THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING READ ON THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON WITH ALL THE EARNINGS SEASON WITH ALL THE EARNINGS REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN COMING REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN COMING OUT. OUT.

DO YOU HAVE A BETTER SENSE OF A DO YOU HAVE A BETTER SENSE OF A CONSISTENT THEME RUNNING CONSISTENT THEME RUNNING THROUGHOUT THE RETAILERS? THROUGHOUT THE RETAILERS?

LAUREN: LAUREN: THE GOOD NEWS IS THE RETAILERS THE GOOD NEWS IS THE RETAILERS ARE WELL STOCKED.

ARE WELL STOCKED. THE INVENTORY IS ON THE THE INVENTORY IS ON THE SHELVES. SHELVES.

THEY ARE READY TO MEET THE THEY ARE READY TO MEET THE CONSUMER WHERE THEY ARE AT. CONSUMER WHERE THEY ARE AT.

THE THEME IS A QUESTION OF THE THEME IS A QUESTION OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT AND WHAT CONSUMER SENTIMENT AND WHAT WILL BE NEEDED TO GET THAT WILL BE NEEDED TO GET THAT CONSUMER AND THE DOOR THIS CONSUMER AND THE DOOR THIS HOLIDAY. HOLIDAY. DANI: DANI: THERE HAVE BEEN NOTES THIS

HOLIDAY. HOLIDAY. DANI: DANI: THERE HAVE BEEN NOTES THIS THERE HAVE BEEN NOTES THIS MORNING, ONE FROM UBS SECURITY MORNING, ONE FROM UBS SECURITY SAYING THAT CONSUMERS' SAYING THAT CONSUMERS' WILLINGNESS TO SPEND HAS WANED WILLINGNESS TO SPEND HAS WANED AND THEY EXPECT A MEDIOCRE AND THEY EXPECT A MEDIOCRE FINISH TO THE HOLIDAY SEASON.

FINISH TO THE HOLIDAY SEASON. CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO RAISE CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO RAISE THEIR SPENDING ON THE HOLIDAYS THEIR SPENDING ON THE HOLIDAYS MORE MODERATELY THAN THEY HAVE MORE MODERATELY THAN THEY HAVE IN THE PAST. WHAT ARE YOU IN THE PAST. WHAT ARE YOU SEEING? SEEING?

ARE YOU SEEING THE SOFTENING ARE YOU SEEING THE SOFTENING AROUND THE EDGES? AROUND THE EDGES? LAUREN:

LAUREN: WELLS FARGO ECONOMISTS ARE WELLS FARGO ECONOMISTS ARE FORECASTING HOLIDAY SALES WILL FORECASTING HOLIDAY SALES WILL BE BETWEEN 3% AND 4% INCREASE BE BETWEEN 3% AND 4% INCREASE OVER YOUR YEAR. OVER YOUR YEAR.

THAT IS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THAT IS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR INFLATION. INFLATION. I THINK CONSUMERS ARE SEEKING

INFLATION. INFLATION. I THINK CONSUMERS ARE SEEKING I THINK CONSUMERS ARE SEEKING OUT VALUE, SEEKING OUT OUT VALUE, SEEKING OUT DISCOUNTS AND MINDFUL OF THEIR DISCOUNTS AND MINDFUL OF THEIR WALLET THIS HOLIDAY.

WALLET THIS HOLIDAY. DANI: DANI: A LOT OF WHAT WE HEARD FROM THE A LOT OF WHAT WE HEARD FROM THE RETAILERS --KOHL'S HAVING A RETAILERS --KOHL'S HAVING A GOOD QUARTER. GOOD QUARTER.

BEST BUY HAS LIFTED THEIR BEST BUY HAS LIFTED THEIR OUTLOOK BECAUSE EVERYBODY IS OUTLOOK BECAUSE EVERYBODY IS BUYING THE NEW IPHONES. BUYING THE NEW IPHONES.

IF THERE IS A CONCERN, IS THERE IF THERE IS A CONCERN, IS THERE A SCENARIO WHERE PEOPLE HAVE A SCENARIO WHERE PEOPLE HAVE SPENT ALL THIS MONEY BECAUSE SPENT ALL THIS MONEY BECAUSE THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FUTURE, ABOUT WHERE PRICES GO FUTURE, ABOUT WHERE PRICES GO AND EMPLOYMENT GOES? AND EMPLOYMENT GOES?

PAST STRENGTH CANNOT BE PAST STRENGTH CANNOT BE INDICATIVE OF FUTURE STRENGTH. INDICATIVE OF FUTURE STRENGTH.

LAUREN: LAUREN: THAT'S RIGHT. THAT'S RIGHT.

THIS IS THE PRIME TIME SPENDING THIS IS THE PRIME TIME SPENDING SEASON BETWEEN NOVEMBER AND SEASON BETWEEN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. DECEMBER. RETAIL LISTED A GOOD JOB TRYING

DECEMBER. DECEMBER. RETAIL LISTED A GOOD JOB TRYING RETAIL LISTED A GOOD JOB TRYING TO KEEP PRICES LOW HEADING INTO TO KEEP PRICES LOW HEADING INTO THIS HOLIDAY. THIS HOLIDAY.

PULLING UP FOR IT INVENTORY PULLING UP FOR IT INVENTORY PURCHASES AHEAD OF PRICE PURCHASES AHEAD OF PRICE INCREASES. INCREASES. WE ARE SEEING THAT AND THE

INCREASES. INCREASES. WE ARE SEEING THAT AND THE WE ARE SEEING THAT AND THE RESULTS. RESULTS.

WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE MARGIN WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE MARGIN HITS WE WERE PROBABLY HITS WE WERE PROBABLY ANTICIPATING. ANTICIPATING. WHAT WE'RE ARE HEARING FROM

ANTICIPATING. ANTICIPATING. WHAT WE'RE ARE HEARING FROM WHAT WE'RE ARE HEARING FROM RETAILERS IS THAT MAY BE COMING RETAILERS IS THAT MAY BE COMING IN IN 2026. 2026. TRYING TO HOLD THE LINE NOW TRYING TO HOLD THE LINE NOW HOWEVER THE QUESTION IS IF HOWEVER THE QUESTION IS IF THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO INCREASE PRICES BECAUSE THEY INCREASE PRICES BECAUSE THEY CAN'T SUSTAIN IT ANY FURTHER

CAN'T SUSTAIN IT ANY FURTHER HEADING INTO 2026.

HEADING INTO 2026. LISA: LISA: THAT WE ALREADY FELT THE THAT WE ALREADY FELT THE RAMIFICATIONS FROM THE TARIFF RAMIFICATIONS FROM THE TARIFF COSTS? COSTS?

HAVE THEY BEEN BORNE BY THESE HAVE THEY BEEN BORNE BY THESE COMPANIES OR ARE THE YET TO COMPANIES OR ARE THE YET TO COME? COME? ARE YOU SAYING THEY ARE YET TO

COME? COME? ARE YOU SAYING THEY ARE YET TO ARE YOU SAYING THEY ARE YET TO COME? COME? LAUREN: LAUREN:

THERE IS A LAG. THERE IS A LAG.

WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE MARGINS TODAY ARE STILL AT THAT MARGINS TODAY ARE STILL AT THAT PRE-PRICE INCREASE BECAUSE THEY PRE-PRICE INCREASE BECAUSE THEY PULLED FORWARD TO SO MUCH PULLED FORWARD TO SO MUCH INVENTORY IN THE FIRST QUARTER. INVENTORY IN THE FIRST QUARTER.

WE ARE HEARING THAT THERE WILL WE ARE HEARING THAT THERE WILL BE FURTHER MARGIN PRICES BE FURTHER MARGIN PRICES HEADING INTO Q1 AND Q2 OF NEXT HEADING INTO Q1 AND Q2 OF NEXT YEAR. YEAR. LISA: LISA: DO YOU HAVE A SENSE OF HOW MUCH

YEAR. YEAR. LISA: LISA: DO YOU HAVE A SENSE OF HOW MUCH DO YOU HAVE A SENSE OF HOW MUCH PRICES WILL INCREASE?

PRICES WILL INCREASE? IS THERE A RANGE RETAILERS ARE IS THERE A RANGE RETAILERS ARE GETTING A SENSE OF DURING THE GETTING A SENSE OF DURING THE HOLIDAY SEASON BASED ON WHAT HOLIDAY SEASON BASED ON WHAT THEY CAN PASS ALONG AND WHERE THEY CAN PASS ALONG AND WHERE NOW? NOW? LAUREN: LAUREN:

THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

WE ARE SEEING IN THIS HOLIDAY WE ARE SEEING IN THIS HOLIDAY SEASON THAT THERE IS A MIXED SEASON THAT THERE IS A MIXED BAG OF DISCOUNTING STRATEGIES. BAG OF DISCOUNTING STRATEGIES.

I THINK HOW THAT FALLS IN THE I THINK HOW THAT FALLS IN THE PRICE INCREASES WHERE YOU SEE PRICE INCREASES WHERE YOU SEE RETAILERS CAPPING MARKDOWNS ON RETAILERS CAPPING MARKDOWNS ON WELL SELLING ITEMS THAT MAY WELL SELLING ITEMS THAT MAY STILL HAVE VALUE OR THEY ARE STILL HAVE VALUE OR THEY ARE TRYING TO EXPAND THE TRYING TO EXPAND THE DISCOUNTING STRATEGY TO MAKE DISCOUNTING STRATEGY TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE GETTING MORE SURE THEY ARE GETTING MORE

CONSUMERS -- MORE CONSUMERS ARE CONSUMERS -- MORE CONSUMERS ARE GETTING VALUE FOR A PARTICULAR GETTING VALUE FOR A PARTICULAR PRODUCT. PRODUCT. THAT IS MORE ON THE MARGIN

PRODUCT. PRODUCT. THAT IS MORE ON THE MARGIN THAT IS MORE ON THE MARGIN SIDE. SIDE.

I REALLY THINK YOU WILL SEE I REALLY THINK YOU WILL SEE WHERE THEY HAVE TO HOLD THE WHERE THEY HAVE TO HOLD THE LINE AND MAKING SURE THEY ARE LINE AND MAKING SURE THEY ARE HITTING THEIR MARGIN FORECAST. HITTING THEIR MARGIN FORECAST.

THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE BOTTOM LINE P&L. BOTTOM LINE P&L. DANI: DANI:

WHAT ABOUT THE SUBSECTORS? WHAT ABOUT THE SUBSECTORS?

ARE THERE PARTS OF RETAIL ARE THERE PARTS OF RETAIL FACING PRICE INCREASES MORE FACING PRICE INCREASES MORE THAN OTHERS? THAN OTHERS? LAUREN: LAUREN:

THAN OTHERS? THAN OTHERS? LAUREN: LAUREN:

WE ARE SEEING IT AT HOME WE ARE SEEING IT AT HOME FURNITURE, HOME GOODS. FURNITURE, HOME GOODS.

THERE WAS SUCH A HIGH THERE WAS SUCH A HIGH PREPONDERANCE OF SOURCING IN PREPONDERANCE OF SOURCING IN CHINA IN THOSE INDUSTRIES. CHINA IN THOSE INDUSTRIES.

THE PRICE INCREASES WERE TO THE PRICE INCREASES WERE TO SWIFT AND THEY ARE BEING PASSED SWIFT AND THEY ARE BEING PASSED THROUGH. THROUGH. WE ARE SEEING BETTER RESILIENCY

THROUGH. THROUGH. WE ARE SEEING BETTER RESILIENCY WE ARE SEEING BETTER RESILIENCY IN APPAREL AND SPECIALTY ITEMS. IN APPAREL AND SPECIALTY ITEMS. I THINK CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO I THINK CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO HOPEFULLY BENEFIT FROM THAT HOPEFULLY BENEFIT FROM THAT THIS HOLIDAY SEASON.

THIS HOLIDAY SEASON. DANI: DANI: IS THE HOME GOODS AND ISSUE THE IS THE HOME GOODS AND ISSUE THE FACT THAT WE HAVE SEEN SOME OF FACT THAT WE HAVE SEEN SOME OF THE BIG BOX HOME IMPROVEMENT THE BIG BOX HOME IMPROVEMENT STORES CONTINUING TO LAG STORES CONTINUING TO LAG BECAUSE OF ISSUES WITHIN BECAUSE OF ISSUES WITHIN HOUSING? HOUSING?

HOW DOES THAT TRICKLE DOWN TO A HOW DOES THAT TRICKLE DOWN TO A HOME GOODS SECTOR FOR EXAMPLE? HOME GOODS SECTOR FOR EXAMPLE?

LAUREN: LAUREN: FURNITURE IS A GOOD EXAMPLE.

FURNITURE IS A GOOD EXAMPLE. WE ARE SEEING MORE DISTRESSED WE ARE SEEING MORE DISTRESSED KNOWING CONSUMER SPENDING KNOWING CONSUMER SPENDING DISCRETIONARY HOME SALES, ETC., DISCRETIONARY HOME SALES, ETC., PEOPLE ARE NOT PURCHASING PEOPLE ARE NOT PURCHASING HOUSING AND THEREFORE DON'T HOUSING AND THEREFORE DON'T NEED TO FURNISH THESE NEW NEED TO FURNISH THESE NEW HOUSES. HOUSES.

I THINK WE ARE SEEING AN I THINK WE ARE SEEING AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF THAT ACROSS IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF THAT ACROSS THE SECTOR. THE SECTOR. LISA: LISA:

THE SECTOR. THE SECTOR. LISA: LISA:

LAUREN MURPHY, THANK YOU FOR LAUREN MURPHY, THANK YOU FOR TAKING THE TIME. TAKING THE TIME.

DO YOU GO TO THE STORE EVER DO YOU GO TO THE STORE EVER POST THANKSGIVING AND CELEBRATE POST THANKSGIVING AND CELEBRATE BY SHOPPING? BY SHOPPING? DANI: DANI:

BY SHOPPING? BY SHOPPING? DANI: DANI:

AS A CREATURE WITH THE NATURAL, AS A CREATURE WITH THE NATURAL, BUILT-IN ANXIETY I CANNOT DO BUILT-IN ANXIETY I CANNOT DO IT.

IT. IT SKYROCKETS. IT SKYROCKETS.

I'M ON MY COMPUTER WITH HOT I'M ON MY COMPUTER WITH HOT COCOA CAN SCROLLING TO THE COCOA CAN SCROLLING TO THE DEALS. DEALS. LISA: LISA:

DEALS. DEALS. LISA: LISA:

YOU ARE MORE THE COMMON YOU ARE MORE THE COMMON DENOMINATOR THAN THE EXCEPTION DENOMINATOR THAN THE EXCEPTION AT THIS POINT GIVEN HOW MANY AT THIS POINT GIVEN HOW MANY DEALS AND OFFERS I HAVE BEEN DEALS AND OFFERS I HAVE BEEN GETTING IN MY INBOX. GETTING IN MY INBOX.

PEOPLE DEFINITELY DECKED OUT. PEOPLE DEFINITELY DECKED OUT.

INTERESTING TO SEE THE RETAIL INTERESTING TO SEE THE RETAIL EARNINGS THIS MORNING. EARNINGS THIS MORNING.

A MORE POSITIVE TONE DESPITE A MORE POSITIVE TONE DESPITE DICK'S SPORTING GOODS. DICK'S SPORTING GOODS.

IF YOU HAVE A PRODUCT PEOPLE IF YOU HAVE A PRODUCT PEOPLE WANT TO BUY WITH EFFICIENCIES, WANT TO BUY WITH EFFICIENCIES, SOME OF THEM ARE RESURRECTING SOME OF THEM ARE RESURRECTING SOME OF THEIR POST-PANDEMIC SOME OF THEIR POST-PANDEMIC MALAISE. MALAISE. DANI: DANI: THAT'S WHY I'M SCRATCHING MY

MALAISE. MALAISE. DANI: DANI: THAT'S WHY I'M SCRATCHING MY THAT'S WHY I'M SCRATCHING MY HEAD LOOKING AT THE NOTES I HEAD LOOKING AT THE NOTES I MENTIONED FROM UBS SECURITY MENTIONED FROM UBS SECURITY SAYING THIS IS A CONSUMER SAYING THIS IS A CONSUMER SPENDING WANING.

SPENDING WANING. YOU ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAYING YOU ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAYING THAT ACROSS THE BOARD.

THAT ACROSS THE BOARD. MAYBE IT IS BACK TO AN ISSUE MAYBE IT IS BACK TO AN ISSUE WITH PEOPLE SAYING ONE THING WITH PEOPLE SAYING ONE THING AND THEN THEY STILL BUY WHEN AND THEN THEY STILL BUY WHEN FACED WITH DEALS.

FACED WITH DEALS. LISA: LISA: LET'S GET AN UPDATE WAS STORIES LET'S GET AN UPDATE WAS STORIES ELSEWHERE WITH VONNIE QUINN.

ELSEWHERE WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE: VONNIE:

THE EUROPEAN UNION REJECTING THE EUROPEAN UNION REJECTING THE U.S.'S DEMAND TO EASE TECH THE U.S.'S DEMAND TO EASE TECH

THE U.S.'S DEMAND TO EASE TECH THE U.S.'S DEMAND TO EASE TECH REGULATION IN TURN FOR LOWER REGULATION IN TURN FOR LOWER STEEL TARIFFS. STEEL TARIFFS. IT IS NOT UP FOR NEGOTIATION.

STEEL TARIFFS. STEEL TARIFFS. IT IS NOT UP FOR NEGOTIATION.

IT IS NOT UP FOR NEGOTIATION. HE CAME AFTER HOWARD LUTNICK HE CAME AFTER HOWARD LUTNICK TOLD BLOOMBERG HIS AND TOLD BLOOMBERG HIS AND ADMINISTRATION COULD RELAX ADMINISTRATION COULD RELAX LEVEES IN RETURN FOR THE LEVEES IN RETURN FOR THE ROLLBACK. ROLLBACK.

PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING AN PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING AN EXECUTIVE ORDER ON MONDAY EXECUTIVE ORDER ON MONDAY ESTABLISHING THE GENESIS ESTABLISHING THE GENESIS MISSION, THE EFFORT TO BOOST MISSION, THE EFFORT TO BOOST INNOVATION USING AI. INNOVATION USING AI.

IT AIMS TO CORNET RESEARCH DONE IT AIMS TO CORNET RESEARCH DONE BY GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO BY GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO INTEGRATE AI TOOLS. INTEGRATE AI TOOLS.

OFFICIALS SAY THE PUSH WILL OFFICIALS SAY THE PUSH WILL ACCELERATE SCIENTIFIC ACCELERATE SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERIES AND ENGINEERING, DISCOVERIES AND ENGINEERING, HEALTH SCIENCES AND ENERGY. HEALTH SCIENCES AND ENERGY.

THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS BEAT THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS BEAT THE CAROLINA PANTHERS ON MONDAY THE CAROLINA PANTHERS ON MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL. NIGHT FOOTBALL. RUNNING BACK CHRISTIAN

NIGHT FOOTBALL. NIGHT FOOTBALL. RUNNING BACK CHRISTIAN RUNNING BACK CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY HAD OVER 140 YARDS MCCAFFREY HAD OVER 140 YARDS AND A TOUCHDOWN.

AND A TOUCHDOWN.

THE SAN FRANCISCO DEFENSE HELD THE SAN FRANCISCO DEFENSE HELD THE PANTHERS TO JUST 9 POINTS. THE PANTHERS TO JUST 9 POINTS.

THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.

LISA: LISA: UP NEXT, POWERING THE AI UP NEXT, POWERING THE AI BUILDUP. BUILDUP.

>> WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A >> WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATION THAT REQUIRES A TRANSFORMATION THAT REQUIRES A LOT OF CHIPS AND REQUIRES DATA LOT OF CHIPS AND REQUIRES DATA AND DATA CENTERS, BUT ALSO A AND DATA CENTERS, BUT ALSO A LOT OF ENERGY. LOT OF ENERGY.

LISA: LISA: SAMANTHA DART OF GOLDMAN SACKS SAMANTHA DART OF GOLDMAN SACKS IS JOINING US NEXT.

IS JOINING US NEXT. ♪ ♪

LISA: LISA: CAN WE MAKE IT A DAY THREE OF CAN WE MAKE IT A DAY THREE OF OUR RALLY AFTER TWO STRAIGHT OUR RALLY AFTER TWO STRAIGHT DAYS OF GAINS, THE BIGGEST DAYS OF GAINS, THE BIGGEST SINCE THE POST LIBERATION DAY SINCE THE POST LIBERATION DAY RALLY? RALLY?

S&P FUTURES ARE TURNING AROUND S&P FUTURES ARE TURNING AROUND AFTER BEING DOWN IS MUCH AS .2% AFTER BEING DOWN IS MUCH AS .2%

EARLIER. EARLIER. NASDAQ TURNING AROUND AS PEOPLE NASDAQ TURNING AROUND AS PEOPLE GET MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE GET MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE EFFICIENCIES AND SOME OF THE EFFICIENCIES AND SOME OF THE NEW PROGRESS AND NEW NEW PROGRESS AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS GOING ON.

DEVELOPMENTS GOING ON. YOU ARE SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF YOU ARE SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A LIFT IN LONGER-TERM YIELDS.

A LIFT IN LONGER-TERM YIELDS.

YOU DO SEE A BID WITH THE FED YOU DO SEE A BID WITH THE FED VERY MUCH AND FOCUS. VERY MUCH AND FOCUS.

SAN FRANCISCO FED PRESIDENT SAN FRANCISCO FED PRESIDENT MARY DALY ENDORSING THE IDEA OF MARY DALY ENDORSING THE IDEA OF A DECEMBER RATE CUT. A DECEMBER RATE CUT.

UNDER SURVEILLANCE, POWERING UNDER SURVEILLANCE, POWERING THE AI BUILDUP. THE AI BUILDUP.

>> EVERYTHING IS ABOUT ENERGY.

>> EVERYTHING IS ABOUT ENERGY. ENERGY AND TECHNOLOGY ARE THE ENERGY AND TECHNOLOGY ARE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF PRODUCTIVITY.

MAIN DRIVERS OF PRODUCTIVITY. WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A MAJOR WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A MAJOR TRANSFORMATION THAT REQUIRES A TRANSFORMATION THAT REQUIRES A LOT OF CHIPS AND REQUIRES A LOT LOT OF CHIPS AND REQUIRES A LOT OF DATA AND DATA CENTERS, BUT OF DATA AND DATA CENTERS, BUT ALSO A LOT OF ENERGY.

ALSO A LOT OF ENERGY.

THE TECHNOLOGY AND THE INDUSTRY THE TECHNOLOGY AND THE INDUSTRY ARE COMBINING. ARE COMBINING. LISA: LISA:

ARE COMBINING. ARE COMBINING. LISA: LISA:

SAMANTHA DART WRITING, "AS AI SAMANTHA DART WRITING, "AS AI DEMANDS MASSIVE POWER, RELIABLE DEMANDS MASSIVE POWER, RELIABLE AND AMPLE POWER SUPPLY IS A KEY AND AMPLE POWER SUPPLY IS A KEY FACTOR SHIPPING THIS RACE." FACTOR SHIPPING THIS RACE."

THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

THE IDEA OF A RACE AGAINST WHO? THE IDEA OF A RACE AGAINST WHO?

CHINA VERSUS U.S. CHINA VERSUS U.S.

IN TERMS OF WHO CAN GET THE IN TERMS OF WHO CAN GET THE MOST COMPUTING POWER AND THE MOST COMPUTING POWER AND THE WHO CAN ACTUALLY POWER SAID WHO CAN ACTUALLY POWER SAID PROGRAMMING? PROGRAMMING? SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA:

PROGRAMMING? PROGRAMMING? SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA:

THESE ARE THE FRONT RUNNERS. THESE ARE THE FRONT RUNNERS.

THE U.S. THE U.S. HOLDING OVER 40% OF ALL DATA HOLDING OVER 40% OF ALL DATA CENTERS IN THE WORLD RIGHT CENTERS IN THE WORLD RIGHT HERE. HERE. CHINA IS NUMBER TWO.

CHINA IS NUMBER TWO. A LITTLE OVER 20%.

A LITTLE OVER 20%. WHEN WE LOOK AT WHAT IS AHEAD, WHEN WE LOOK AT WHAT IS AHEAD, DO WE HAVE THE CAPACITY TO KEEP DO WE HAVE THE CAPACITY TO KEEP THIS GOING? THIS GOING?

THAT IS FOR THE DIFFERENCES THAT IS FOR THE DIFFERENCES REALLY START TO SHOW. REALLY START TO SHOW.

IN THE U.S., WE ARE ALREADY IN THE U.S., WE ARE ALREADY SEEING ABOUT EIGHT OUT OF THE SEEING ABOUT EIGHT OUT OF THE 13 POWER MARKETS IN THE U.S. 13 POWER MARKETS IN THE U.S.

ALREADY STRAINED DURING PEAK ALREADY STRAINED DURING PEAK SUMMER TIME. SUMMER TIME.

SUMMER TIME. SUMMER TIME.

IN CHINA, SPARE CAPACITY IS NOT IN CHINA, SPARE CAPACITY IS NOT ONLY MUCH LARGER BUT ESTIMATED ONLY MUCH LARGER BUT ESTIMATED TO GET LARGER IN THE NEXT FIVE TO GET LARGER IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. YEARS. LISA: LISA: WITHOUT THE U.S.

YEARS. YEARS. LISA: LISA: WITHOUT THE U.S.

WITHOUT THE U.S. BUILDING MASSIVE POWER THE NEXT BUILDING MASSIVE POWER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, WHICH IS GOING TO FIVE YEARS, WHICH IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN AI IS RAMPING BE THE TIME WHEN AI IS RAMPING UP, THIS COMES DOWN TO UP, THIS COMES DOWN TO EFFICIENCY AND HOW MUCH MORE EFFICIENCY AND HOW MUCH MORE EFFICIENT CAN CHIPS GET WHICH EFFICIENT CAN CHIPS GET WHICH IS WHY EVERYONE IS FOCUSED ON

IS WHY EVERYONE IS FOCUSED ON GOOGLE TODAY AND THE IDEA OF GOOGLE TODAY AND THE IDEA OF THEIR TPU'S, A MORE EFFICIENT THEIR TPU'S, A MORE EFFICIENT CHIP THAT USES LESS ENERGY CHIP THAT USES LESS ENERGY VERSUS NVIDIA'S GPU'S.

VERSUS NVIDIA'S GPU'S. HOW MUCH IS AT A NECESSARY HOW MUCH IS AT A NECESSARY AGREEMENT FOR THE AI REST -- AGREEMENT FOR THE AI REST -- INGREDIENT FOR THE AI RACE?

INGREDIENT FOR THE AI RACE? SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA:

WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ADD WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ADD ENOUGH CAPACITY TO CONTINUE TO ENOUGH CAPACITY TO CONTINUE TO FEEL THIS -- FUEL THIS. FEEL THIS -- FUEL THIS.

THIS SUMMER WE SAW THE EASTERN THIS SUMMER WE SAW THE EASTERN MARKET IN THE U.S., THE POWER MARKET IN THE U.S., THE POWER MARKET REALLY TIGHT. MARKET REALLY TIGHT.

WE SAW A REAL-TIME POWER PRICES WE SAW A REAL-TIME POWER PRICES SPIKING TO REACH RECORD HIGHS. SPIKING TO REACH RECORD HIGHS.

WE SAW CAPACITY AUCTIONS WE SAW CAPACITY AUCTIONS REACHING RECORD PRICES. REACHING RECORD PRICES.

THE MARKET POSITIONING NOT JUST THE MARKET POSITIONING NOT JUST A PRICE YOU'RE PEAK SUMMER A PRICE YOU'RE PEAK SUMMER PRICE VERY HIGH BUT WE ARE PRICE VERY HIGH BUT WE ARE GOING NEED TO PAY UTILITIES A GOING NEED TO PAY UTILITIES A LOT MORE TO BUILD ADDITIONAL LOT MORE TO BUILD ADDITIONAL CAPACITY IN THE LONG RUN CAPACITY IN THE LONG RUN BECAUSE WHAT WE HAVE IS NOT BECAUSE WHAT WE HAVE IS NOT

SUFFICIENT. SUFFICIENT. PETER WE GET MORE EFFICIENT OR

SUFFICIENT. SUFFICIENT. PETER WE GET MORE EFFICIENT OR PETER WE GET MORE EFFICIENT OR WE ARE GOING TO START TO SEE WE ARE GOING TO START TO SEE BOTTLENECKS, OR AT LEAST A BOTTLENECKS, OR AT LEAST A SLOWDOWN IN THE DATA CENTER SLOWDOWN IN THE DATA CENTER CAPACITY IN THE U.S.

CAPACITY IN THE U.S. DANI: DANI: HOW MUCH OF THIS IS A TIMING HOW MUCH OF THIS IS A TIMING MISMATCH? MISMATCH?

BUILD IT AND THEY WILL COME AND BUILD IT AND THEY WILL COME AND TRY TO BUILD MORE ENERGY TRY TO BUILD MORE ENERGY CAPACITY. CAPACITY. IT TAKES TIME FOR THESE TO GET

CAPACITY. CAPACITY. IT TAKES TIME FOR THESE TO GET IT TAKES TIME FOR THESE TO GET ONLINE. ONLINE.

IS THERE A CONCERN WE ARE IS THERE A CONCERN WE ARE RAMPING UP SO MUCH WITH OUR RAMPING UP SO MUCH WITH OUR DEMAND OF AI AND WHAT WE ARE DEMAND OF AI AND WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING VERSUS THE ABILITY OF EXPECTING VERSUS THE ABILITY OF THE PROJECT TO COME ONLINE? THE PROJECT TO COME ONLINE?

SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA: IT IS LIKE YOU HAVE TWO LINES.

IT IS LIKE YOU HAVE TWO LINES. THE DATA CENTERS ARE COMING IN THE DATA CENTERS ARE COMING IN DROVES AND ON THE POWER DROVES AND ON THE POWER GENERATION SIDE IT IS NOT THAT GENERATION SIDE IT IS NOT THAT IT WOULD NORMALLY TAKE SO LONG.

IT WOULD NORMALLY TAKE SO LONG. YOU WOULD NOT NORMALLY BUILD A YOU WOULD NOT NORMALLY BUILD A NATURAL GAS POWER PLANT IN TWO NATURAL GAS POWER PLANT IN TWO YEARS IF YOU HAVE A TURBINE.

YEARS IF YOU HAVE A TURBINE. WE HAVE A 45 YEAR QUEUE TO GET WE HAVE A 45 YEAR QUEUE TO GET A NEW TURBINE. A NEW TURBINE.

YOU ARE HAVING TO RELY ON OTHER YOU ARE HAVING TO RELY ON OTHER SOURCES. SOURCES. WE ARE STILL BUILDING A LOT OF

SOURCES. SOURCES. WE ARE STILL BUILDING A LOT OF WE ARE STILL BUILDING A LOT OF RENEWABLES BUT THEIR RENEWABLES BUT THEIR INTERMITTENT. INTERMITTENT.

YOU NEED SOMETHING TO BACK IT YOU NEED SOMETHING TO BACK IT UP. UP. WE CANNOT BUILD NUCLEAR BECAUSE

UP. UP. WE CANNOT BUILD NUCLEAR BECAUSE WE CANNOT BUILD NUCLEAR BECAUSE EVERY TIME WE TRY IT TAKES MANY EVERY TIME WE TRY IT TAKES MANY MORE YEARS AND IT COST A LOT MORE YEARS AND IT COST A LOT MORE. MORE.

WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS IF WE DON'T HAVE THE EFFICIENCY IF WE DON'T HAVE THE EFFICIENCY GAIN. GAIN. IN THENEAR TERM THE RESULT ENDS

GAIN. GAIN. IN THENEAR TERM THE RESULT ENDS IN THENEAR TERM THE RESULT ENDS UP BEING THE PEAK SUMMER UP BEING THE PEAK SUMMER PERIODS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHTER PERIODS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHTER AND TIGHTER IN THE POWER AND TIGHTER IN THE POWER MARKETS AND WILL HAVE PRICE MARKETS AND WILL HAVE PRICE SPIKES AND POTENTIAL OUTAGES.

SPIKES AND POTENTIAL OUTAGES. DANI: DANI:

THIS ALWAYS LEADS ME TO THINK, THIS ALWAYS LEADS ME TO THINK, WHAT DOES EUROPE DO? WHAT DOES EUROPE DO?

THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO WEAN THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO WEAN THEMSELVES OFF OF RUSSIAN THEMSELVES OFF OF RUSSIAN ENERGY. ENERGY. CAN THEY COMPETE EVEN WITHOUT

ENERGY. ENERGY. CAN THEY COMPETE EVEN WITHOUT CAN THEY COMPETE EVEN WITHOUT DATA CENTER DEMAND?

DATA CENTER DEMAND? THEY STRUGGLE TO GET THE THEY STRUGGLE TO GET THE CAPACITY THEY NEED.

CAPACITY THEY NEED. SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA:

IT IS UNLIKELY THEY CAN COMPETE IT IS UNLIKELY THEY CAN COMPETE A LOT OF THAT IS BECAUSE THEY A LOT OF THAT IS BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOT EVEN SECURED THEIR HAVE NOT EVEN SECURED THEIR ENERGY SOURCES. ENERGY SOURCES. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHO HAS

ENERGY SOURCES. ENERGY SOURCES. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHO HAS WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHO HAS ENOUGH ENERGY TO POWER ALL OF ENOUGH ENERGY TO POWER ALL OF THIS -- THE U.S.

THIS -- THE U.S. HAS BECOME AN ENERGY NET HAS BECOME AN ENERGY NET EXPORTER. EXPORTER.

IF YOU LOOK AT EUROPE, EVEN IF YOU LOOK AT EUROPE, EVEN THOUGH A LOT OF EUROPE IS NOT THOUGH A LOT OF EUROPE IS NOT USING RUSSIAN GAS ANYMORE, THE USING RUSSIAN GAS ANYMORE, THE DEPENDENCY JUST SWITCHED TO DEPENDENCY JUST SWITCHED TO IMPORTED LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS. IMPORTED LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS.

YOU STILL HAVE TO IMPORT IT. YOU STILL HAVE TO IMPORT IT.

ALMOST 50% OF EUROPE'S ENERGY ALMOST 50% OF EUROPE'S ENERGY HAS TO BE IMPORTED. HAS TO BE IMPORTED.

THAT DEPENDENCY IS STILL THERE. THAT DEPENDENCY IS STILL THERE.

THE GRID IS OLD. THE GRID IS OLD.

THEY DON'T HAVE RARE EARTHS FOR THEY DON'T HAVE RARE EARTHS FOR URANIUM. URANIUM. IT IS A VULNERABLE PLACE TO BE.

URANIUM. URANIUM. IT IS A VULNERABLE PLACE TO BE.

IT IS A VULNERABLE PLACE TO BE. LISA: LISA:

LITTLE FINANCIAL GAS. LITTLE FINANCIAL GAS.

HOW MUCH DO YOU SEE PRICES HOW MUCH DO YOU SEE PRICES INCREASING IN THE NEXT 12 INCREASING IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? MONTHS? SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA:

MONTHS? MONTHS? SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA:

WE ARE STARTING A WAVE OF WE ARE STARTING A WAVE OF SUPPLY GROWTH IN LIQUEFIED SUPPLY GROWTH IN LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS. NATURAL GAS. THE U.S. THE U.S.

NATURAL GAS. NATURAL GAS. THE U.S. THE U.S.

IS A BIG DRIVER OF THAT. IS A BIG DRIVER OF THAT.

THE U.S. THE U.S. WILL DRIVE MORE THAN 50% OF WILL DRIVE MORE THAN 50% OF GLOBAL GROWTH IN LNG SUPPLY.

GLOBAL GROWTH IN LNG SUPPLY. THE BRIGHT SIDE FOR EUROPE, IF THE BRIGHT SIDE FOR EUROPE, IF I CAN FIND ONE, IS THAT THEIR I CAN FIND ONE, IS THAT THEIR ACCESS TO ENERGY IS LIKELY TO ACCESS TO ENERGY IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE AFFORDABLE OVER THE BECOME MORE AFFORDABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.

NEXT SEVERAL YEARS. LISA: LISA: YOU HAVE THE LIQUEFIED NATURAL YOU HAVE THE LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS PRICES GOING ON BECAUSE OF GAS PRICES GOING ON BECAUSE OF SUPPLY. SUPPLY.

YOU HAVE ACTUAL GASOLINE, YOU HAVE ACTUAL GASOLINE, DIESEL, ALSO PRICES GOING LOWER DIESEL, ALSO PRICES GOING LOWER BECAUSE OF THE SUPPLY GLUT OUT BECAUSE OF THE SUPPLY GLUT OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND OTHER OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND OTHER PLACES. PLACES. WHERE IS THE CRUNCH GOING TO

PLACES. PLACES. WHERE IS THE CRUNCH GOING TO WHERE IS THE CRUNCH GOING TO HAPPEN? HAPPEN?

WHERE ARE THE PRICES GOING UP WHERE ARE THE PRICES GOING UP SO MATERIALLY THAT PEOPLE WILL SO MATERIALLY THAT PEOPLE WILL FEEL THE PAIN? FEEL THE PAIN? SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA:

IN THE U.S., WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE U.S., WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THAT THE BOTTLENECKS AND THE IS THAT THE BOTTLENECKS AND THE PRICE PRESSURE POINT ARE MORE PRICE PRESSURE POINT ARE MORE LIKELY TO SHOW WHEN IT COMES TO LIKELY TO SHOW WHEN IT COMES TO POWER PRICE THAN NATURAL GAS POWER PRICE THAN NATURAL GAS PRICES OR EVEN GASOLINE PRICES. PRICES OR EVEN GASOLINE PRICES.

IT IS A POWER STORY A LOT MORE IT IS A POWER STORY A LOT MORE THAN GAS. THAN GAS. DANI: DANI: THE ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN

THAN GAS. THAN GAS. DANI: DANI: THE ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN THE ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON AFFORDABILITY IN FOCUSED ON AFFORDABILITY IN RECENT WEEKS. RECENT WEEKS.

IF THE RESULT IS EVERY DAY IF THE RESULT IS EVERY DAY CONSUMERS FEEL THE HIGHER CONSUMERS FEEL THE HIGHER PRICE, IS THERE ANYTHING THE PRICE, IS THERE ANYTHING THE ADMINISTRATION CAN DO OR DO ADMINISTRATION CAN DO OR DO THEY JUST NEED TO BE WORKED THEY JUST NEED TO BE WORKED OUT?

OUT? SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA: WE ARE HERE TALKING ABOUT WE ARE HERE TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL BOTTLENECKS ON THE POTENTIAL BOTTLENECKS ON THE INFRASTRUCTURE. INFRASTRUCTURE.

IF IT BECOMES A POLITICAL ISSUE IF IT BECOMES A POLITICAL ISSUE BECAUSE ELECTRICITY PRICES ARE BECAUSE ELECTRICITY PRICES ARE RISING, THAT BECOMES ANOTHER RISING, THAT BECOMES ANOTHER TYPE OF BOTTLENECK. TYPE OF BOTTLENECK.

BECAUSE WE CAN'T REALLY FIX BECAUSE WE CAN'T REALLY FIX INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDING THAT INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDING THAT FAST, THE ONLY THING POLICY CAN FAST, THE ONLY THING POLICY CAN DO IS MAKE PERMITS COME FASTER. DO IS MAKE PERMITS COME FASTER.

IF WE CAN'T GET A TURBINE IN IF WE CAN'T GET A TURBINE IN LESS THAN FIVE YEARS, WE STILL LESS THAN FIVE YEARS, WE STILL HAVE A PROBLEM. HAVE A PROBLEM. LISA: LISA:

HOW MUCH THIS IS GOING TO REST HOW MUCH THIS IS GOING TO REST WITH THE HYPERSCALERS HAVING TO WITH THE HYPERSCALERS HAVING TO PAY FOR THE POWER FOR PAY FOR THE POWER FOR THEMSELVES AND CREATE THEIR OWN THEMSELVES AND CREATE THEIR OWN POWER PLANTS? POWER PLANTS? THEY ARE DOING IT OFF THE GRID

POWER PLANTS? POWER PLANTS? THEY ARE DOING IT OFF THE GRID THEY ARE DOING IT OFF THE GRID TO SOME DEGREE AND THAT COULD TO SOME DEGREE AND THAT COULD BECOME STRANDED ASSETS.

BECOME STRANDED ASSETS. HOW MUCH OF THAT IS THE PATH OF HOW MUCH OF THAT IS THE PATH OF TRAVEL GOING FORWARD?

TRAVEL GOING FORWARD? SAMANTHA: SAMANTHA:

THEY WILL FACE THE SAME THEY WILL FACE THE SAME BOTTLENECKS. BOTTLENECKS. THEY STILL NEED GAS TURBINES

BOTTLENECKS. BOTTLENECKS. THEY STILL NEED GAS TURBINES THEY STILL NEED GAS TURBINES WITH OWN POWER GENERATION -- WITH OWN POWER GENERATION -- GENERATORS, EVEN IF THEY ARE GENERATORS, EVEN IF THEY ARE OFF THE GRID. OFF THE GRID.

IF THEY ARE SEPARATED FROM THE IF THEY ARE SEPARATED FROM THE GRID. GRID. EVEN IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR

GRID. GRID. EVEN IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR EVEN IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR OFF THE GRID, IF YOU'RE POWER OFF THE GRID, IF YOU'RE POWER DEMAND GROWS WITH IT, BY THE DEMAND GROWS WITH IT, BY THE TIME YOU REACH THAT GENERATOR TIME YOU REACH THAT GENERATOR CAPACITY, GUESS WHAT?

CAPACITY, GUESS WHAT? YOU WILL NEED TO CONNECT TO THE YOU WILL NEED TO CONNECT TO THE GRID EVENTUALLY ANYWAY.

GRID EVENTUALLY ANYWAY. LISA: LISA: WHAT IS THE TRADE?

WHAT IS THE TRADE? IF YOU'RE ADVISING WITH THE IF YOU'RE ADVISING WITH THE CAPITALIZE ON ON THE DEMAND CAPITALIZE ON ON THE DEMAND OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY, WHERE DO OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY, WHERE DO YOU GO? YOU GO? SAMANTHA:

SAMANTHA: I THINK FROM THE U.S. I THINK FROM THE U.S.

PERSPECTIVE THE TRADE IS PERSPECTIVE THE TRADE IS FOCUSED ON POWER PRICES. FOCUSED ON POWER PRICES.

LOOK AT THE BACKEND OF POWER LOOK AT THE BACKEND OF POWER PRICE CURVES. PRICE CURVES. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO

PRICE CURVES. PRICE CURVES. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO INCENTIVIZE MORE BUILDOUT AND INCENTIVIZE MORE BUILDOUT AND THAT WILL SHOW UP IN THE BACK THAT WILL SHOW UP IN THE BACK END OF THE CURVE.

END OF THE CURVE. IF YOU TURN AROUND AND LOOK AT IF YOU TURN AROUND AND LOOK AT EUROPE, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT EUROPE, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT ALL THAT VULNERABILITY YOU NEED ALL THAT VULNERABILITY YOU NEED TO IMPORT. TO IMPORT.

YOU DON'T HAVE RARE EARTHA FOR YOU DON'T HAVE RARE EARTHA FOR THIS OR THATS. THIS OR THATS. WE HAVE BEEN ADVISING THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVISING THAT INVESTORS HOLD COMMODITIES AS A INVESTORS HOLD COMMODITIES AS A HEDGE TO ALL OF THIS GOING HEDGE TO ALL OF THIS GOING WRONG. WRONG. LISA: LISA:

SAMANTHA DART, THANK YOU FOR SAMANTHA DART, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US, TALKING ABOUT BEING WITH US, TALKING ABOUT THE POWER DEMANDS. THE POWER DEMANDS.

THIS WILL BE AN AFFORDABILITY THIS WILL BE AN AFFORDABILITY ISSUE. ISSUE. INCREASINGLY THERE WAS A CHART

ISSUE. ISSUE. INCREASINGLY THERE WAS A CHART INCREASINGLY THERE WAS A CHART I SAW THAT PRICES FOR ENERGY I SAW THAT PRICES FOR ENERGY HAVE REMAINED STEADY BECAUSE HAVE REMAINED STEADY BECAUSE GAS PRICES HAVE COME DOWN SO GAS PRICES HAVE COME DOWN SO MUCH. MUCH.

IT OFFSET THE INCREASE SO MANY IT OFFSET THE INCREASE SO MANY PEOPLE HAVE FELT IN THEIR PEOPLE HAVE FELT IN THEIR ELECTRICITY BILLS. ELECTRICITY BILLS. DANI: DANI:

ELECTRICITY BILLS. ELECTRICITY BILLS. DANI: DANI:

WHAT HAPPENS IF THAT REVERSES WHAT HAPPENS IF THAT REVERSES AND HOW DOES POLITICS GET AND HOW DOES POLITICS GET INVOLVED? INVOLVED? THE IDEA OF CROWDING OUT IS

INVOLVED? INVOLVED? THE IDEA OF CROWDING OUT IS THE IDEA OF CROWDING OUT IS HAPPENING IN ELECTRICITY AND HAPPENING IN ELECTRICITY AND MANUFACTURING. MANUFACTURING.

MANUFACTURING SPENDING HAS MANUFACTURING SPENDING HAS STARTED TO TRAIL OFF. STARTED TO TRAIL OFF.

A LOT OF THE CAPITAL RESOURCES A LOT OF THE CAPITAL RESOURCES AND ENERGY INCREASINGLY GOING AND ENERGY INCREASINGLY GOING TO THE DOMINANCE OF AI. TO THE DOMINANCE OF AI. LISA:

LISA: AND TO RETAILERS, WHICH WE WILL AND TO RETAILERS, WHICH WE WILL TALK ABOUT COMING UP AS WE GET TALK ABOUT COMING UP AS WE GET RETAIL SALES DATA FROM RETAIL SALES DATA FROM SEPTEMBER AND ADP NUMBERS SEPTEMBER AND ADP NUMBERS COMING OUT AT 8:15.

COMING OUT AT 8:15. COMING UP, JOE AMATO, TRACY COMING UP, JOE AMATO, TRACY CHEN , POOJA SRIRAM AND KRISHNA CHEN , POOJA SRIRAM AND KRISHNA MEMANI KRISHNA MEMANI OF MEMANI KRISHNA MEMANI OF LAFAYETTE COLLEGE.

LAFAYETTE COLLEGE. GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING.

♪ ♪ >> THE REALITY IS, THE >> THE REALITY IS, THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STILL SOUND.

FUNDAMENTALS ARE STILL SOUND.

>> I DON'T THINK WE HAVE YET >> I DON'T THINK WE HAVE YET SEEN THE BUBBLE TRADE IN AI.

SEEN THE BUBBLE TRADE IN AI.

>> THE MARKET HAS DONE WORK TO >> THE MARKET HAS DONE WORK TO TAKE SOME OF THE FROTH OUT.

TAKE SOME OF THE FROTH OUT.

>> WE THINK THERE IS A >> WE THINK THERE IS A BROADENING OUT. BROADENING OUT.

ANNOUNCER: ANNOUNCER: THIS IS "BLOOMBERG THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE."

LISA: LISA: GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING.

WELCOME BACK TO "BLOOMBERG WELCOME BACK TO "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE." U.S. U.S.

SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE." U.S. U.S.

RETAIL SALES AND DATA ON DECK RETAIL SALES AND DATA ON DECK AS RETAILERS KICK OFF THE AS RETAILERS KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY SEASON WITH MORE FED HOLIDAY SEASON WITH MORE FED OFFICIALS SIGNALING A OFFICIALS SIGNALING A WILLINGNESS TO CUT RIGHT THIS WILLINGNESS TO CUT RIGHT THIS -- RATES NEXT MONTH. -- RATES NEXT MONTH.

AND ALPHABET DISPLAYING NEW AND ALPHABET DISPLAYING NEW MARKET DOMINANCE ON BOTH THE MARKET DOMINANCE ON BOTH THE SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE SIDES OF SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE SIDES OF THE AI'S DO, WITH THE LATEST THE AI'S DO, WITH THE LATEST REPORTS SAYING META MADE BY AI REPORTS SAYING META MADE BY AI CHIPS. CHIPS. SHOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE AI

CHIPS. CHIPS. SHOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE AI SHOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE AI TRADE INTO EFFICIENCIES AND TRADE INTO EFFICIENCIES AND WINNERS AND LOSERS.

WINNERS AND LOSERS. DANI: DANI:

IT IS NOT ALL TIDES ARE RISING, IT IS NOT ALL TIDES ARE RISING, BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AN BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AN INDUSTRY THAT HAS STARTED TO INDUSTRY THAT HAS STARTED TO GET RELIANT ON NVIDIA? GET RELIANT ON NVIDIA?

OPENAI HAS THAT RELATIONSHIP OPENAI HAS THAT RELATIONSHIP WITH NVIDIA. WITH NVIDIA. ANTHROPIC HAS A RELATIONSHIP

WITH NVIDIA. WITH NVIDIA. ANTHROPIC HAS A RELATIONSHIP ANTHROPIC HAS A RELATIONSHIP WITH NVIDIA. WITH NVIDIA.

IF ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY ARE IF ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY ARE THINKING WE NEED TO CHANGE TO THINKING WE NEED TO CHANGE TO DIFFERENT SHIPS, NVIDIA STARTS DIFFERENT SHIPS, NVIDIA STARTS TO SUFFER, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO SUFFER, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO THE INTERCONNECTED WEB IT TO THE INTERCONNECTED WEB IT HAS WOVEN? HAS WOVEN? LISA: LISA:

HAS WOVEN? HAS WOVEN? LISA: LISA:

THIS IS PART OF THE TRANSITION THIS IS PART OF THE TRANSITION THAT IS HEALTHY, WITH PEOPLE THAT IS HEALTHY, WITH PEOPLE MOVING FROM AI IS EVERYTHING MOVING FROM AI IS EVERYTHING AND SUPERSEDING ANY WEEK THIS AND SUPERSEDING ANY WEEK THIS IN THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY OR IN THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY OR CONSUMER, TALK, LET'S FIGURE CONSUMER, TALK, LET'S FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE

UNDERLYING ECONOMY AND CATER TO UNDERLYING ECONOMY AND CATER TO IT. IT. THAT IS THE QUESTION BEARING

IT. IT. THAT IS THE QUESTION BEARING THAT IS THE QUESTION BEARING OUT IN MARKETS, WHERE THIS OUT IN MARKETS, WHERE THIS MORNING MAYBE WE ARE SEEING A MORNING MAYBE WE ARE SEEING A SHIFT IN TONE. SHIFT IN TONE. DANI: DANI:

BECAUSE OF THE EARNINGS. BECAUSE OF THE EARNINGS.

IT IS REMARKABLE TO LOOK AT THE IT IS REMARKABLE TO LOOK AT THE COMPANIES THAT REPORTED THIS COMPANIES THAT REPORTED THIS MORE -- THIS MONEY. MORE -- THIS MONEY.

BEST BUY LIFTING THEIR OUTLOOK. BEST BUY LIFTING THEIR OUTLOOK.

BURLINGTON, THOSE SHARES BURLINGTON, THOSE SHARES DROPPED BECAUSE APPARENTLY DROPPED BECAUSE APPARENTLY WASN'T GOOD ENOUGH. WASN'T GOOD ENOUGH.

BUT COLES SOARING. BUT COLES SOARING.

THE TAKEAWAY IS, PEOPLE ARE THE TAKEAWAY IS, PEOPLE ARE BUYING. BUYING. THEY ARE BUYING GOODS, BUT WILL

BUYING. BUYING. THEY ARE BUYING GOODS, BUT WILL THEY ARE BUYING GOODS, BUT WILL THAT STRENGTH CONTINUE?

THAT STRENGTH CONTINUE? I SAW A LOT OF BEARISH NOTES I SAW A LOT OF BEARISH NOTES THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING.

BASICALLY SAYING SOME OF THE BASICALLY SAYING SOME OF THE CONSUMER IS GOING TO WEIGH IN CONSUMER IS GOING TO WEIGH IN THIS HOLIDAY SEASON AND THE THIS HOLIDAY SEASON AND THE PICKUP SPENDING WILL NOT BE AS PICKUP SPENDING WILL NOT BE AS BIG AS WE ARE USED TO. BIG AS WE ARE USED TO.

LISA: LISA: SOME OF THE TEPID LOSSES ARE SOME OF THE TEPID LOSSES ARE TURNING INTO TEPID GAINS ON THE TURNING INTO TEPID GAINS ON THE S&P FUTURES. S&P FUTURES.

UNCHANGED ON THE DAY. UNCHANGED ON THE DAY.

YOU ARE SEEING A BIT OF IT INTO YOU ARE SEEING A BIT OF IT INTO THE BOND SPACE ACROSS THE BOARD THE BOND SPACE ACROSS THE BOARD AS PEOPLE START TO LOOK TO THE AS PEOPLE START TO LOOK TO THE FED TO POTENTIALLY CUT NEXT FED TO POTENTIALLY CUT NEXT MONTH. MONTH. 10-YEAR YIELDS BELOW 4.02%.

MONTH. MONTH. 10-YEAR YIELDS BELOW 4.02%.

10-YEAR YIELDS BELOW 4.02%. IN THE COMING DAYS WE GET ADP IN THE COMING DAYS WE GET ADP PAYROLL NUMBERS.

PAYROLL NUMBERS. IN JUST ABOUT 13 MINUTES' TIME.

IN JUST ABOUT 13 MINUTES' TIME. AT 8:30 WE DO GET RETAIL SALES AT 8:30 WE DO GET RETAIL SALES AS WELL AS PPI. AS WELL AS PPI.

TOMORROW WE DO GET THE BEIGE TOMORROW WE DO GET THE BEIGE BOOK AS WELL. BOOK AS WELL. WATCH FOR THAT AS WE TRY TO GET WATCH FOR THAT AS WE TRY TO GET A SENSE OF SENTIMENT.

A SENSE OF SENTIMENT. THIS HOUR WE HAVE JOSEPH AMATO, THIS HOUR WE HAVE JOSEPH AMATO, TRYING TO FIND DIRECTION.

TRYING TO FIND DIRECTION. TRACY CHEN OF BRANDYWINE AS TRACY CHEN OF BRANDYWINE AS GOOGLE'S CHIP CHALLENGE HAS GOOGLE'S CHIP CHALLENGE HAS NVIDIA SHARES FALLING.

NVIDIA SHARES FALLING. AND POOJA SRIRAM AS WE BREAK AND POOJA SRIRAM AS WE BREAK DOWN THE LATEST -- AT LEAST THE DOWN THE LATEST -- AT LEAST THE LATEST WE GET ECONOMIC DATA.

LATEST WE GET ECONOMIC DATA. TO BEGIN WITH STOCKS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN WITH STOCKS JUST ABOUT FLAT FOLLOWING WALL STREET'S FLAT FOLLOWING WALL STREET'S BEST DAY IN SIX WEEKS.

BEST DAY IN SIX WEEKS. JOE AMATO WRITING THIS.

JOE AMATO WRITING THIS. AI IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD.

AI IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD. DIVERSIFICATION PUT A FOCUS ON DIVERSIFICATION PUT A FOCUS ON QUALITY -- PUTS A FOCUS ON QUALITY -- PUTS A FOCUS ON QUALITY, AND COULD HELP QUALITY, AND COULD HELP MITIGATE SHOCKS STEMMING FROM MITIGATE SHOCKS STEMMING FROM AI-RELATED DISRUPTION.

AI-RELATED DISRUPTION. JOE, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH JOE, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. US.

THIS GOES TO THE HEART OF THE THIS GOES TO THE HEART OF THE QUESTION. QUESTION. IS IT A FEATURE FOR A GOD THAT

QUESTION. QUESTION. IS IT A FEATURE FOR A GOD THAT IS IT A FEATURE FOR A GOD THAT AI MARCHES TO ITS OWN DRUM?

AI MARCHES TO ITS OWN DRUM? DO YOU THINK THIS IS A PLACE DO YOU THINK THIS IS A PLACE THAT CAN KEEP EQUITIES CHARGING THAT CAN KEEP EQUITIES CHARGING HIGHER INTO 2026?

HIGHER INTO 2026? JOE: JOE:

I THINK AI IS GOING TO BE A I THINK AI IS GOING TO BE A MASSIVE CREATIVE-DISTRACTION MASSIVE CREATIVE-DISTRACTION PROCESS. PROCESS. YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF

PROCESS. PROCESS. YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF WINNERS AND A LOT OF LOSERS.

WINNERS AND A LOT OF LOSERS. THOSE COMPANIES THAT ARE ABLE THOSE COMPANIES THAT ARE ABLE TO ADOPT AI TAKE NEXTEL PROTECT TO ADOPT AI TAKE NEXTEL PROTECT MARGINS AND ENHANCE THEIR OWN MARGINS AND ENHANCE THEIR OWN EARNINGS ARE GOING TO BE THE EARNINGS ARE GOING TO BE THE REAL OPPORTUNITY.

REAL OPPORTUNITY. YOU HAVE HAD THE ENABLER RALLY YOU HAVE HAD THE ENABLER RALLY OVER THE LAST QUARTERS AND OVER THE LAST QUARTERS AND YEARS, SO AS THAT GETS YEARS, SO AS THAT GETS DISPERSED THROUGH THE BROADER DISPERSED THROUGH THE BROADER ECONOMY YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THE ECONOMY YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THE BENEFITS OF THAT, AS YOU SAW IN BENEFITS OF THAT, AS YOU SAW IN THE EARLY 2000S WHEN MORE AND THE EARLY 2000S WHEN MORE AND

MORE COMPANIES ADOPTED THE MORE COMPANIES ADOPTED THE INTERNET AND GOT THE MARGIN INTERNET AND GOT THE MARGIN ENHANCEMENT FROM THAT. ENHANCEMENT FROM THAT. LISA:

LISA: WILL THE REST OF THE ECONOMY WILL THE REST OF THE ECONOMY FEEL IT? FEEL IT?

WE ARE SITTING HERE TRYING TO WE ARE SITTING HERE TRYING TO ASSESS THE STATE OF THE U.S. ASSESS THE STATE OF THE U.S.

ECONOMY AND HOW MUCH YOU CAN ECONOMY AND HOW MUCH YOU CAN GET THIS DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AI GET THIS DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AI AND EVERYTHING ELSE. AND EVERYTHING ELSE.

WILL YOU GET A CONVERGENCE AS WILL YOU GET A CONVERGENCE AS YOU SEE A BROADENING OUT OF THE YOU SEE A BROADENING OUT OF THE GAINS IN NON-TECH COMPANIES? GAINS IN NON-TECH COMPANIES?

JOE: JOE: THAT'S WHAT WE EXPECT. THAT'S WHAT WE EXPECT.

THAT IS WHAT DRIVES THIS THAT IS WHAT DRIVES THIS BROADENING OUT THEME WE ARE BROADENING OUT THEME WE ARE SAYING. SAYING. YOU ARE ALREADY SEEING IT IN

SAYING. SAYING. YOU ARE ALREADY SEEING IT IN YOU ARE ALREADY SEEING IT IN THE CONTEXT OF COMPANIES THE CONTEXT OF COMPANIES TALKING ABOUT USE CASES TO GAIN TALKING ABOUT USE CASES TO GAIN EFFICIENCIES, WHETHER IT IS EFFICIENCIES, WHETHER IT IS WALMART TALKING ABOUT THEIR WALMART TALKING ABOUT THEIR QUARTERLY EARNINGS, ABOUT NOT QUARTERLY EARNINGS, ABOUT NOT REALLY INCREASING HEADCOUNT REALLY INCREASING HEADCOUNT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS, OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS,

YET SHOWING GOOD EARNINGS AND YET SHOWING GOOD EARNINGS AND GOOD MARGIN IMPROVEMENT. GOOD MARGIN IMPROVEMENT.

THEY ARE FIGURING OUT WAYS TO THEY ARE FIGURING OUT WAYS TO GET THAT EFFICIENCY FROM GET THAT EFFICIENCY FROM ADOPTING THESE TECHNOLOGY ADOPTING THESE TECHNOLOGY TOOLS.

TOOLS. DANI: DANI: THERE WAS A STUDY I WAS LOOKING THERE WAS A STUDY I WAS LOOKING AT FROM IBM WHICH DOES AT FROM IBM WHICH DOES CONSULTING FOR DIFFERENT CONSULTING FOR DIFFERENT COMPANIES SAYING THAT 60% OF COMPANIES SAYING THAT 60% OF COMPANIES WERE TRYING TO COMPANIES WERE TRYING TO IMPLEMENT AI OR IN PILOT IMPLEMENT AI OR IN PILOT PURGATORY. PURGATORY.

AS IN THEY ARE TRYING TO FIND AS IN THEY ARE TRYING TO FIND WAYS AND EXPERIMENTING WITH WAYS AND EXPERIMENTING WITH WAYS BUT HAVE NOT CRACKED THE WAYS BUT HAVE NOT CRACKED THE NUT. NUT. IF YOU'RE GOING TO SEE IF YOU'RE GOING TO SEE

NUT. NUT. IF YOU'RE GOING TO SEE IF YOU'RE GOING TO SEE PRODUCTIVITY PLAY OUT, HOW LONG PRODUCTIVITY PLAY OUT, HOW LONG IS THE TIMELINE? IS THE TIMELINE?

IS THIS SOMETHING YOU EXPECT TO IS THIS SOMETHING YOU EXPECT TO BE PUT INTO MOTION QUICKLY OR A BE PUT INTO MOTION QUICKLY OR A MULTIPLE YEARS-LONG TRAJECTORY? MULTIPLE YEARS-LONG TRAJECTORY?

JOE: JOE: IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN FASTER IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN FASTER THAN THE INTEGRATION AND THAN THE INTEGRATION AND ADOPTION OF THE BROAD-BASED ADOPTION OF THE BROAD-BASED INTERNET, WHICH TOOK A GOOD INTERNET, WHICH TOOK A GOOD DECADE OR SO. DECADE OR SO.

THAT SAID, IT IS A CHALLENGE. THAT SAID, IT IS A CHALLENGE.

WE SEE IT IN OUR OWN FIRM. WE SEE IT IN OUR OWN FIRM.

THERE ARE USE CASES WE THERE ARE USE CASES WE DEVELOPER OUR PROFESSIONALS DEVELOPER OUR PROFESSIONALS THAT CAN BE IMPLEMENTED AND THAT CAN BE IMPLEMENTED AND FIND REAL EFFICIENCIES IN THEIR FIND REAL EFFICIENCIES IN THEIR INVESTMENT PROCESSES. INVESTMENT PROCESSES.

INVESTMENT PROCESSES. INVESTMENT PROCESSES.

AT THE SAME TIME, WHEN YOU ARE AT THE SAME TIME, WHEN YOU ARE CHANGING WORKFLOWS AND YOU ARE CHANGING WORKFLOWS AND YOU ARE AFFECTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF, IN AFFECTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF, IN OUR CASE OUR FIRM, OR THE OUR CASE OUR FIRM, OR THE EXAMPLES YOU ARE USING, IT IS EXAMPLES YOU ARE USING, IT IS HARDER. HARDER. BUT I THINK IT IS COMING.

HARDER. HARDER. BUT I THINK IT IS COMING.

BUT I THINK IT IS COMING. SOME OF THE STUDIES WE HAVE SOME OF THE STUDIES WE HAVE ALREADY ABOUT, SEEN, WHATEVER ALREADY ABOUT, SEEN, WHATEVER AROUND QUESTIONING THE RETURN AROUND QUESTIONING THE RETURN ON EFFICIENCY GAINS, IT IS TOO ON EFFICIENCY GAINS, IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL. EARLY TO TELL.

WE HAVE BEEN IN -- WE HAVE BEEN WE HAVE BEEN IN -- WE HAVE BEEN AN EARLY ADOPTER IN OUR FIRM. AN EARLY ADOPTER IN OUR FIRM.

WE WERE PUSHING THESE TOOLS OUT WE WERE PUSHING THESE TOOLS OUT FOR 2023 FOR FOLKS TO USE. FOR 2023 FOR FOLKS TO USE.

WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY INNINGS OF HAVING AN INTEGRATED INNINGS OF HAVING AN INTEGRATED IN THE FIRM. IN THE FIRM. DANI: DANI:

DOES THAT MEAN YOU ARE NOT IN DOES THAT MEAN YOU ARE NOT IN THE CAMP OF, THE FINANCIAL THE CAMP OF, THE FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY IS ABOUT TO SERVICES INDUSTRY IS ABOUT TO USE ITS JUNIOR EMPLOYEES USE ITS JUNIOR EMPLOYEES BECAUSE CHATGPT IS GOING TO BECAUSE CHATGPT IS GOING TO DEVELOP SOME MODEL THAT TAKES DEVELOP SOME MODEL THAT TAKES AWAY THE GROUNDWORK? AWAY THE GROUNDWORK? JOE: JOE:

I THINK AI IS GOING TO PUT I THINK AI IS GOING TO PUT PRESSURE ON LOW END WHITE PRESSURE ON LOW END WHITE COLLAR SERVICES JOBS. COLLAR SERVICES JOBS.

THAT IS WHAT A LOT OF THE FOLKS THAT IS WHAT A LOT OF THE FOLKS COMING OUT OF SCHOOL. COMING OUT OF SCHOOL.

YOU ARE SEEING COLLEGE GRADS YOU ARE SEEING COLLEGE GRADS STRUGGLING TO FIND A JOB. STRUGGLING TO FIND A JOB.

WE ARE ALL SEEING THE LEVEL OF WE ARE ALL SEEING THE LEVEL OF YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IS HIGHER YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IS HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEEN. THAN IT HAS BEEN.

THAT IS WORRISOME FOR THE LABOR THAT IS WORRISOME FOR THE LABOR MARKET, RIGHT? MARKET, RIGHT? AT THE SAME TIME, FROM THE

MARKET, RIGHT? MARKET, RIGHT? AT THE SAME TIME, FROM THE AT THE SAME TIME, FROM THE FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY THEY CAN GAIN THOSE THEY CAN GAIN THOSE EFFICIENCIES WHERE YOU DID NOT EFFICIENCIES WHERE YOU DID NOT NEED TO NECESSARILY HAVE AS NEED TO NECESSARILY HAVE AS MANY YOUNG FOLKS AS YOU NEEDED MANY YOUNG FOLKS AS YOU NEEDED FOR. FOR. LISA: LISA:

HOW ARE YOU UNDERSTANDING THE HOW ARE YOU UNDERSTANDING THE DECLINES WE SAW BEFORE TWO DAYS DECLINES WE SAW BEFORE TWO DAYS AGO IN THE AI SPACE? AGO IN THE AI SPACE?

IS THIS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY? IS THIS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY?

IS THIS A SIGN OF TIGHTENING IS THIS A SIGN OF TIGHTENING LIQUIDITY? LIQUIDITY? IS THIS A SIGN THAT PEOPLE ARE

LIQUIDITY? LIQUIDITY? IS THIS A SIGN THAT PEOPLE ARE IS THIS A SIGN THAT PEOPLE ARE GETTING LESS PATIENT?

GETTING LESS PATIENT? ARE YOU USING THIS PERIOD TO ARE YOU USING THIS PERIOD TO RESET GOING INTO 2026?

RESET GOING INTO 2026? JOE: JOE: WE HAD A MASSIVE RALLY IN THOSE WE HAD A MASSIVE RALLY IN THOSE ENABLERS I TALKED ABOUT.

ENABLERS I TALKED ABOUT. THE FIRST AND SECOND DERIVATIVE THE FIRST AND SECOND DERIVATIVE AI STOCKS. AI STOCKS.

HAVING A PAUSE, CONSIDERING THE HAVING A PAUSE, CONSIDERING THE CHALLENGES, THE QUESTION, CHALLENGES, THE QUESTION, WHETHER THE PACE OF AI WHETHER THE PACE OF AI INVESTMENT IS GOING TO INVESTMENT IS GOING TO CONTINUE, I HEARD YOUR LAST CONTINUE, I HEARD YOUR LAST GUEST TALKING ABOUT POWER. GUEST TALKING ABOUT POWER.

POWER IS GOING TO BE AN POWER IS GOING TO BE AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE AI IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE AI TRAJECTORY. TRAJECTORY. AS WE MOVE INTO 2026 WE ARE

TRAJECTORY. TRAJECTORY. AS WE MOVE INTO 2026 WE ARE AS WE MOVE INTO 2026 WE ARE OPTIMISTIC. OPTIMISTIC.

WE SEE THE ECONOMY RUNNING IN WE SEE THE ECONOMY RUNNING IN THE U.S. THE U.S. AT A REASONABLE CLIP.

THE U.S. THE U.S. AT A REASONABLE CLIP.

AT A REASONABLE CLIP. THE THIRD QUARTER COULD BE IN THE THIRD QUARTER COULD BE IN THE 3%-PLUS RANGE FOR GDP THE 3%-PLUS RANGE FOR GDP GROWTH. GROWTH.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE JOB WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE JOB GROWTH WE HAVE SEEN IN THE GROWTH WE HAVE SEEN IN THE THIRD QUARTER IT TELLS YOU THIRD QUARTER IT TELLS YOU SOMETHING IS GOING ON WITH SOMETHING IS GOING ON WITH PRODUCTIVITY. PRODUCTIVITY. IT SEEMS WE WILL HAVE

PRODUCTIVITY. PRODUCTIVITY. IT SEEMS WE WILL HAVE IT SEEMS WE WILL HAVE REASONABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH, YET REASONABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH, YET MODEST AMOUNT OF JOB GROWTH.

MODEST AMOUNT OF JOB GROWTH. AS WE MOVE INTO 2026 EARNINGS AS WE MOVE INTO 2026 EARNINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE, AND WE THINK ARE IN GOOD SHAPE, AND WE THINK THE FED DIRECTIONALLY IS THE FED DIRECTIONALLY IS CUTTING RATES. CUTTING RATES.

THAT IS A GOOD FOUNDATION THAT IS A GOOD FOUNDATION MOVING INTO THE NEW YEAR. MOVING INTO THE NEW YEAR. LISA:

LISA: YOUR CHARACTERIZATION IS YOUR CHARACTERIZATION IS DIFFERENT THEN WE HEARD DIFFERENT THEN WE HEARD YESTERDAY FROM MORGAN STANLEY, YESTERDAY FROM MORGAN STANLEY, AS WELL AS WELLS FARGO TALKING AS WELL AS WELLS FARGO TALKING ABOUT A REAL TIGHTENING IN ABOUT A REAL TIGHTENING IN LIQUIDITY, AS WELL AS A SENSE LIQUIDITY, AS WELL AS A SENSE THAT THE ECONOMY WAS FLAGGING THAT THE ECONOMY WAS FLAGGING AND NOT NECESSARILY AND NOT NECESSARILY

PRODUCTIVITY, THE JURY IS OUT PRODUCTIVITY, THE JURY IS OUT ABOUT WHY WE HAVE NOT SEEN MORE ABOUT WHY WE HAVE NOT SEEN MORE JOB GROWTH AND WHY WE HAVE SEEN JOB GROWTH AND WHY WE HAVE SEEN ONGOING EARNINGS FROM ONGOING EARNINGS FROM CORPORATIONS. CORPORATIONS. THEY EXPECT AGGRESSIVE RATE

CORPORATIONS. CORPORATIONS. THEY EXPECT AGGRESSIVE RATE THEY EXPECT AGGRESSIVE RATE CUTS, QUANTITATIVE EASING BY CUTS, QUANTITATIVE EASING BY ANOTHER NAME, AND FISCAL ANOTHER NAME, AND FISCAL STIMULUS COMING IN.

STIMULUS COMING IN. MUCH IS THAT PART OF YOUR MUCH IS THAT PART OF YOUR THESIS FOR 2026?

THESIS FOR 2026?

JOE: JOE: THE FOURTH QUARTER IS GOING TO THE FOURTH QUARTER IS GOING TO BE A SOFT PATCH BECAUSE OF THE BE A SOFT PATCH BECAUSE OF THE SHUTDOWN. SHUTDOWN.

WE DON'T THINK THE RUN RATE IS WE DON'T THINK THE RUN RATE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO THE FOURTH GOING TO CONTINUE TO THE FOURTH QUARTER, BUT WE DO EXPECT TO QUARTER, BUT WE DO EXPECT TO PICK UP IN 2026 BASED ON RATE PICK UP IN 2026 BASED ON RATE CUTS. CUTS. BASED ON STIMULUS IN THE BILL,

CUTS. CUTS. BASED ON STIMULUS IN THE BILL, BASED ON STIMULUS IN THE BILL, WHICH IS FRONTLOADED IN 2026.

WHICH IS FRONTLOADED IN 2026. PURPOSEFULLY-SO BY THE PURPOSEFULLY-SO BY THE ADMINISTRATION. ADMINISTRATION.

I THINK THAT BUILDS A I THINK THAT BUILDS A FOUNDATION FOR A BETTER FOUNDATION FOR A BETTER ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENT. YOU KNOW, THIS IS WHAT MAKES

ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENT. YOU KNOW, THIS IS WHAT MAKES YOU KNOW, THIS IS WHAT MAKES MARKETS. MARKETS.

PEOPLE HAVE DIFFERENT VIEWS ON PEOPLE HAVE DIFFERENT VIEWS ON THE PACE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. THE PACE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.

WE ARE REASONABLY SANGUINE WE ARE REASONABLY SANGUINE ABOUT WHERE THINGS ARE RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THINGS ARE RIGHT NOW. NOW. DANI: DANI: WHEN IT COMES TO MARKETS AND

NOW. NOW. DANI: DANI: WHEN IT COMES TO MARKETS AND WHEN IT COMES TO MARKETS AND THE STRUCTURE OF IT, DO YOU THE STRUCTURE OF IT, DO YOU TAKE ANYTHING FROM THE LAST TWO TAKE ANYTHING FROM THE LAST TWO WEEKS WHERE YOU HAD A RISK-OFF WEEKS WHERE YOU HAD A RISK-OFF LEAD BY HIGHER-MOMENTUM NAMES, LEAD BY HIGHER-MOMENTUM NAMES, CRYPTO INVESTMENTS, AND IT HAD CRYPTO INVESTMENTS, AND IT HAD A SPILLOVER EFFECT?

A SPILLOVER EFFECT? IS THERE SOME CONCERN YOU CAN IS THERE SOME CONCERN YOU CAN TAKE FROM THAT AND EXTRAPOLATE TAKE FROM THAT AND EXTRAPOLATE INTO 2026? INTO 2026? JOE: JOE:

WE SAW A FAIR AMOUNT OF WE SAW A FAIR AMOUNT OF FROTHING THIS. FROTHING THIS. YOU DON'T HAVE A MARKET RALLY

FROTHING THIS. FROTHING THIS. YOU DON'T HAVE A MARKET RALLY YOU DON'T HAVE A MARKET RALLY AS HARD AS IT HAS AN IN EVERY AS HARD AS IT HAS AN IN EVERY BULL MARKET YOU ARE GOING TO BULL MARKET YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE ACCESS EXCITEMENT, IF YOU HAVE ACCESS EXCITEMENT, IF YOU WILL. WILL.

THAT COMING BACK TO REALITY IS THAT COMING BACK TO REALITY IS A GOOD INCOME IN OUR VIEW. A GOOD INCOME IN OUR VIEW.

IT PLAYS INTO THE NOTION THAT IT PLAYS INTO THE NOTION THAT IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT THOSE AI IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT THOSE AI TECHNOLOGY STOCKS THAT ARE TECHNOLOGY STOCKS THAT ARE WHERE YOU WANT TO BE. WHERE YOU WANT TO BE.

WANT TO THINK ABOUT HOW THAT WANT TO THINK ABOUT HOW THAT BROADENING OUT BECOMES AN BROADENING OUT BECOMES AN OPPORTUNITY FROM AN EQUITY OPPORTUNITY FROM AN EQUITY MARKET STANDPOINT. MARKET STANDPOINT. DANI: DANI:

MARKET STANDPOINT. MARKET STANDPOINT. DANI: DANI:

A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO BET AGAINST IT. TRYING TO BET AGAINST IT.

MICHAEL BURRY HAS TRADED IN HIS MICHAEL BURRY HAS TRADED IN HIS HAT AS A FUN -- AS A HEDGE FUND HAT AS A FUN -- AS A HEDGE FUND MANAGER TO BE PART OF IT. MANAGER TO BE PART OF IT.

PEOPLE WHO WANT TO SHORT THIS PEOPLE WHO WANT TO SHORT THIS MARKET SEEM TO BE PLAYING IT MARKET SEEM TO BE PLAYING IT THROUGH UTILITIES. THROUGH UTILITIES.

THROUGH UTILITIES. THROUGH UTILITIES.

.2% OF FREE FLOW SHORT INTEREST .2% OF FREE FLOW SHORT INTEREST IS ONE OF THE HIGHEST ON IS ONE OF THE HIGHEST ON RECORD, AND THEY RECOMMENDED AS RECORD, AND THEY RECOMMENDED AS A WAY TO PLAY AGAINST AI. A WAY TO PLAY AGAINST AI.

IF SOMEONE WERE TO SAY TO YOU, IF SOMEONE WERE TO SAY TO YOU, I'M NERVOUS ABOUT AI, WHAT I'M NERVOUS ABOUT AI, WHAT WOULD YOU TELL THEM TO DO? WOULD YOU TELL THEM TO DO?

CAN YOU BE SHORT THIS MARKET OR CAN YOU BE SHORT THIS MARKET OR DO YOU NEED TO GO SOMEWHERE DO YOU NEED TO GO SOMEWHERE ELSE? ELSE?

ELSE? ELSE?

>> I WOULD BE CAREFUL SHORTING >> I WOULD BE CAREFUL SHORTING THIS MARKET BECAUSE OF THE THIS MARKET BECAUSE OF THE FOUNDATIONS WE TALKED ABOUT AND FOUNDATIONS WE TALKED ABOUT AND THE BROADENING OUT.

THE BROADENING OUT. YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF THIS, THIS CREATIVE DESTRUCTION THIS, THIS CREATIVE DESTRUCTION PROCESS. PROCESS.

YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF LOSERS AND IT IS GOING TO LOSERS AND IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN FASTER THAN PEOPLE THINK HAPPEN FASTER THAN PEOPLE THINK ABOUT. ABOUT. DOES IT CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY

ABOUT. ABOUT. DOES IT CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY DOES IT CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHORT INDIVIDUAL NAMES?

TO SHORT INDIVIDUAL NAMES? I THINK IT DOES.

I THINK IT DOES. THAT LEVEL OF DISPERSION IN THAT LEVEL OF DISPERSION IN SINGLE-STOCK VOLATILITY CREATES SINGLE-STOCK VOLATILITY CREATES THOSE OPPORTUNITIES.

THOSE OPPORTUNITIES. LISA: LISA: IT MIGHT MAKE PEOPLE FEEL IT MIGHT MAKE PEOPLE FEEL CONFIDENT TO BE LONG.

CONFIDENT TO BE LONG. JOE AMATO OF NEUBERGER BERMAN.

JOE AMATO OF NEUBERGER BERMAN. MORE PEOPLE TALK ABOUT BUBBLES MORE PEOPLE TALK ABOUT BUBBLES THE BETTER THEY FEEL IF THERE THE BETTER THEY FEEL IF THERE IS NOT ONE. IS NOT ONE. DANI:

DANI: IF YOU ARE IN THE BEGINNING IF YOU ARE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES THE BEST THING YOU CAN STAGES THE BEST THING YOU CAN DO IS BUY AND WRITE IT TO THE DO IS BUY AND WRITE IT TO THE TOP. TOP.

A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN PUNISHED BETTING AGAINST IT. PUNISHED BETTING AGAINST IT.

MICHAEL BURRY, KIND OF A POSTER MICHAEL BURRY, KIND OF A POSTER CHILD AT THIS MOMENT. CHILD AT THIS MOMENT. LISA:

LISA: BUT SUB STACK, A WOMAN FUZZY BUT SUB STACK, A WOMAN FUZZY PLACE. PLACE.

HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH VONNIE QUINN. WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE:

VONNIE: COLE'S SHARES JUMPING AFTER A COLE'S SHARES JUMPING AFTER A REPORTED THEIR QUARTER EARNINGS REPORTED THEIR QUARTER EARNINGS THAT TOPPED ANALYST ESTIMATES.

THAT TOPPED ANALYST ESTIMATES. THE RETAILER ALSO POSTING THE RETAILER ALSO POSTING BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED SALES AND BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED SALES AND RAISING ITS FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK.

RAISING ITS FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK. BEST BUY SHARES ALSO RISING.

BEST BUY SHARES ALSO RISING. THE TECH RETAILER REPORTED THE TECH RETAILER REPORTED STRONG EARNINGS THAT ESTIMATES.

STRONG EARNINGS THAT ESTIMATES. THE COMPANY, BOOSTING ITS THE COMPANY, BOOSTING ITS ADJUSTED EARNINGS-PER-SHARE ADJUSTED EARNINGS-PER-SHARE GUIDANCE AND PROJECTING HIGHER GUIDANCE AND PROJECTING HIGHER COMP SALES FOR THE FISCAL YEAR.

COMP SALES FOR THE FISCAL YEAR. IN TECH, SHARES OF ALPHABET IN TECH, SHARES OF ALPHABET RISING IN THE PREMARKET ON RISING IN THE PREMARKET ON REPORTS META IS IN TALKS TO REPORTS META IS IN TALKS TO SPEND MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON SPEND MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON THE SEARCH GIANT'S AI CHIPS.

THE SEARCH GIANT'S AI CHIPS.

MET OUT PLANS TO USE GOOGLE'S MET OUT PLANS TO USE GOOGLE'S PROCESSING UNITS IN DATA PROCESSING UNITS IN DATA CENTERS FROM 2027. CENTERS FROM 2027.

AN AGREEMENT WOULD HELP AN AGREEMENT WOULD HELP ESTABLISH TPU'S AS AN ESTABLISH TPU'S AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO NVIDIA'S AI ALTERNATIVE TO NVIDIA'S AI CHIPS. CHIPS. LISA: LISA: WE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN THE

CHIPS. CHIPS. LISA: LISA: WE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN THE WE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN THE ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT, PLUS ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT, PLUS TRACY CHEN AS BRANDYWINE HAS TRACY CHEN AS BRANDYWINE HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON DOLLARS.

ITS SIGHTS SET ON DOLLARS. YOU ARE WATCHING "BLOOMBERG YOU ARE WATCHING "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE." ♪

♪ >> THE AI THEME HAS JUST COME >> THE AI THEME HAS JUST COME TO THE INVESTMENT-GRADE MARKET.

TO THE INVESTMENT-GRADE MARKET. ONE OF THE RISKS IS, IT STARTS ONE OF THE RISKS IS, IT STARTS TO RAISE YIELDS ACROSS THE TO RAISE YIELDS ACROSS THE BOARD AND START TO MAKE THE BOARD AND START TO MAKE THE COST OF CAPITAL MORE EXPENSIVE.

COST OF CAPITAL MORE EXPENSIVE. THAT ULTIMATELY COULD BE A DRAG THAT ULTIMATELY COULD BE A DRAG ON GROWTH DOWN THE LINE.

ON GROWTH DOWN THE LINE.

IT IS GOING TO BE A WHILE UNTIL IT IS GOING TO BE A WHILE UNTIL WE GET TO A POINT WHERE IT WE GET TO A POINT WHERE IT STARTS TO DEGRADE. STARTS TO DEGRADE. LISA: LISA:

THAT WAS ED AL HUSSEINI THAT WAS ED AL HUSSEINI SPEAKING MOMENTS AGO AS WE HEAD SPEAKING MOMENTS AGO AS WE HEAD TO THE MARKET OPEN. TO THE MARKET OPEN.

WE ARE LOOKING FOR THOSE WE ARE LOOKING FOR THOSE ECONOMIC DATA POINTS, INCLUDING ECONOMIC DATA POINTS, INCLUDING ADP. ADP. WE WILL BRING THEM TO YOU WHEN

ADP. ADP. WE WILL BRING THEM TO YOU WHEN WE WILL BRING THEM TO YOU WHEN WE GET THEM. WE GET THEM.

RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE THE ADP RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE THE ADP NUMBERS, JUST CROSSING. NUMBERS, JUST CROSSING.

LET'S HEAD OVER TO BLOOMBERG'S LET'S HEAD OVER TO BLOOMBERG'S MICHAEL MCKEE. MICHAEL MCKEE. MIKE: MIKE: GOOD MORNING, LISA.

MICHAEL MCKEE. MICHAEL MCKEE. MIKE: MIKE: GOOD MORNING, LISA.

GOOD MORNING, LISA. THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS, THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS, CONSIDERING IT IS THE SECOND CONSIDERING IT IS THE SECOND WEEK IN A ROW WE SEE A DECLINE WEEK IN A ROW WE SEE A DECLINE IN ADP. IN ADP.

JOBS WERE LOST IN THE FOUR JOBS WERE LOST IN THE FOUR WEEKS TO NOVEMBER 8. WEEKS TO NOVEMBER 8.

THIS IS A FOUR-WEEK MOVING THIS IS A FOUR-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE AND A COUPLE OF WEEKS AVERAGE AND A COUPLE OF WEEKS BEHIND, BUT IT IS THE LATEST BEHIND, BUT IT IS THE LATEST INFORMATION WE HAVE. INFORMATION WE HAVE.

AND IT IS NOT PARTICULARLY GOOD AND IT IS NOT PARTICULARLY GOOD NEWS. NEWS. WE WILL GET THE MONTHLY NUMBERS

NEWS. NEWS. WE WILL GET THE MONTHLY NUMBERS WE WILL GET THE MONTHLY NUMBERS NEXT WEEK, AND THAT MAY GIVE US NEXT WEEK, AND THAT MAY GIVE US A BETTER CLUE AS TO WHERE THE A BETTER CLUE AS TO WHERE THE LABOR MARKET IS, BUT IT LABOR MARKET IS, BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE WEEKLY ADP CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE WEEKLY ADP NUMBERS, TO THE EXTENT YOU CAN NUMBERS, TO THE EXTENT YOU CAN TRUST THEM, ARE MAKING THE CASE

TRUST THEM, ARE MAKING THE CASE THAT THE DOVES WERE MAKING THE THAT THE DOVES WERE MAKING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SUGGESTING THE FED MIGHT WANT SUGGESTING THE FED MIGHT WANT TO CUT RATES AGAIN.

TO CUT RATES AGAIN. LISA: LISA: THE IDEA THAT PRIVATE PAYROLL THE IDEA THAT PRIVATE PAYROLL LOSSES ARE ACCELERATING SPEAKS LOSSES ARE ACCELERATING SPEAKS TO WHAT WE HEARD IN THE WALL TO WHAT WE HEARD IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ARTICLE WITH SAN STREET JOURNAL ARTICLE WITH SAN FRANCISCO FED PRESIDENT MARY FRANCISCO FED PRESIDENT MARY DALY WHEN SHE WAS TALKING ABOUT DALY WHEN SHE WAS TALKING ABOUT HOW SHE HAS SEEN A REAL-TIME

HOW SHE HAS SEEN A REAL-TIME DETERIORATION IN THE LABOR DETERIORATION IN THE LABOR MARKET. MARKET.

HOW MUCH IS THAT COALESCING, HOW MUCH IS THAT COALESCING, THAT IDEA OF BRINGING TOGETHER THAT IDEA OF BRINGING TOGETHER A LOT OF THE FED MEMBERS BASED A LOT OF THE FED MEMBERS BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE ON WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE GROUND OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS? GROUND OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS?

MIKE: MIKE: YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF OPEN YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE MEMBERS THAT MARKET COMMITTEE MEMBERS THAT HAVE SAID THEY ARE OPEN TO MORE HAVE SAID THEY ARE OPEN TO MORE WANT TO CUT RATES, AND YOU ARE WANT TO CUT RATES, AND YOU ARE GOING TO SEE THERE IS A TREND GOING TO SEE THERE IS A TREND THAT HAS SOLIDIFIED SINCE THE

THAT HAS SOLIDIFIED SINCE THE LAST FED MEETING WHEN JAY LAST FED MEETING WHEN JAY POWELL TOLD US IT WAS NOT BY POWELL TOLD US IT WAS NOT BY ANY MEANS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION ANY MEANS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION THAT THEY WOULD CUT.

THAT THEY WOULD CUT. IT SEEMS A LOT OF THESE FED IT SEEMS A LOT OF THESE FED OFFICIALS TALKING TO OFFICIALS OFFICIALS TALKING TO OFFICIALS AROUND THEIR DISTRICTS HAVE AROUND THEIR DISTRICTS HAVE SEEN THAT COMPANIES ARE GOING SEEN THAT COMPANIES ARE GOING AHEAD, AND THIS WAS ALWAYS A AHEAD, AND THIS WAS ALWAYS A QUESTION OUT THERE.

QUESTION OUT THERE. WHEN THE COMPANIES HAVE TO MAKE WHEN THE COMPANIES HAVE TO MAKE A DECISION ONE WAY OR ANOTHER A DECISION ONE WAY OR ANOTHER ABOUT PERSONNEL WHILE THEY WAIT ABOUT PERSONNEL WHILE THEY WAIT FOR THE CONFUSION ABOUT TRUMP'S FOR THE CONFUSION ABOUT TRUMP'S ECONOMIC POLICIES TO CLEAR UP?

ECONOMIC POLICIES TO CLEAR UP? THEY DO SEEM TO BE MAKING SOME THEY DO SEEM TO BE MAKING SOME DECISIONS NOW. DECISIONS NOW.

LISA: LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH, MICHAEL THANK YOU SO MUCH, MICHAEL MCKEE. MCKEE.

WE ARE SEEING A LITTLE MOVE IN WE ARE SEEING A LITTLE MOVE IN BOND FUTURES, ALTHOUGH NOT BOND FUTURES, ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. SIGNIFICANTLY. 2-YEAR YIELDS MOVING MORE

SIGNIFICANTLY. SIGNIFICANTLY. 2-YEAR YIELDS MOVING MORE 2-YEAR YIELDS MOVING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. SIGNIFICANTLY.

NOW BONDS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM NOW BONDS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM GETTING A BID. GETTING A BID. TIME NOW FOR THE MORNING CALLS.

TIME NOW FOR THE MORNING CALLS. THE MO CAPITAL LOWERING ITS THE MO CAPITAL LOWERING ITS PRICE TARGET ON NOVO NORDISK, PRICE TARGET ON NOVO NORDISK, EXPECTING NEGATIVE HEADWINDS EXPECTING NEGATIVE HEADWINDS FOR 2026. FOR 2026.

NEXT UP, MIZUHO LOWERING ITS NEXT UP, MIZUHO LOWERING ITS PRICE TARGET ON TESLA, NOTING PRICE TARGET ON TESLA, NOTING WEAKER ELECTRIC VEHICLE MAKERS WEAKER ELECTRIC VEHICLE MAKERS IN CHINA AND THE U.S.. IN CHINA AND THE U.S..

SHARES ESSENTIALLY FLAT. SHARES ESSENTIALLY FLAT.

DA DAVIDSON KEEPING A NEUTRAL DA DAVIDSON KEEPING A NEUTRAL RATING ON ALPHABET, SEEING RATING ON ALPHABET, SEEING INCREASING DEMAND FOR GOOGLE'S INCREASING DEMAND FOR GOOGLE'S TPU'S FOLLOWING INFORMATION TPU'S FOLLOWING INFORMATION META IS IN TALKS TO SPEND BIG META IS IN TALKS TO SPEND BIG ON THE COMPANY'S AI CHIPS AND ON THE COMPANY'S AI CHIPS AND GOOGLE SHARES UP 4.3% IN EARLY GOOGLE SHARES UP 4.3% IN EARLY TRADING. TRADING. NVIDIA SHARES FALLING FOLLOWING

TRADING. TRADING. NVIDIA SHARES FALLING FOLLOWING NVIDIA SHARES FALLING FOLLOWING THAT REPORT FROM THE THAT REPORT FROM THE INFORMATION. INFORMATION.

TRACY CHEN WRITING, THE WINNER TRACY CHEN WRITING, THE WINNER TAKES ALL MENTALITY IN THE TAKES ALL MENTALITY IN THE UNITED STATES HAS LED TO UNITED STATES HAS LED TO AGGRESSIVE CAPEX SPENDING AND AGGRESSIVE CAPEX SPENDING AND HOARDING OF COMPUTING CAPACITY, HOARDING OF COMPUTING CAPACITY, WHICH IS DIMINISHING FREE CASH WHICH IS DIMINISHING FREE CASH FLOW. FLOW. TRACY JOINS US NOW. TRACY JOINS US NOW.

FLOW. FLOW. TRACY JOINS US NOW. TRACY JOINS US NOW.

THANK FOR BEING WITH US. THANK FOR BEING WITH US.

I WANT TO START WITH A QUESTION I WANT TO START WITH A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH WE ARE SEEING THE OF HOW MUCH WE ARE SEEING THE WINNERS AND LOSERS CHECK OUT WINNERS AND LOSERS CHECK OUT NOW OR WE ARE JUST GETTING NOW OR WE ARE JUST GETTING AHEAD TO WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN AHEAD TO WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN SIX MONTHS? SIX MONTHS? TRACY: TRACY:

SIX MONTHS? SIX MONTHS? TRACY: TRACY:

GOOD MORNING, LISA. GOOD MORNING, LISA.

WE ARE IN THE EARLY STAGE OF WE ARE IN THE EARLY STAGE OF THIS AI ARMS RACE. THIS AI ARMS RACE.

RIGHT NOW WE ARE STILL GETTING RIGHT NOW WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME LITTLE HINT ABOUT THIS SOME LITTLE HINT ABOUT THIS WINNER AND LOSER, BECAUSE TODAY WINNER AND LOSER, BECAUSE TODAY YOU CAN SEE GOOGLE SHARES UP IN YOU CAN SEE GOOGLE SHARES UP IN NVIDIA SHARES DOWN. NVIDIA SHARES DOWN.

I'M NOT SAYING WHO IS THE I'M NOT SAYING WHO IS THE WINNER, BUT YOU START TO SEE WINNER, BUT YOU START TO SEE THIS DIFFERENTIATING MARKET THIS DIFFERENTIATING MARKET RESPONSE TO THIS AI DEVELOPMENT RESPONSE TO THIS AI DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE BEFORE WE HAVE SEEN BECAUSE BEFORE WE HAVE SEEN ANYTHING THAT TOUCHED AI, WE ANYTHING THAT TOUCHED AI, WE HAVE SEEN STOCK UP. HAVE SEEN STOCK UP.

BUT NOW WE CAN SEE THE BUT NOW WE CAN SEE THE DIFFERENTIATION, WHICH IS A DIFFERENTIATION, WHICH IS A HEALTHY DEVELOPMENT. HEALTHY DEVELOPMENT. DANI: DANI:

HEALTHY DEVELOPMENT. HEALTHY DEVELOPMENT. DANI: DANI:

DOES THAT MEAN IT DOES NOT PAY DOES THAT MEAN IT DOES NOT PAY OFF TO PLAY THIS PASSIVELY? OFF TO PLAY THIS PASSIVELY?

CONSIDERING WE ARE STARTING TO CONSIDERING WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIATIONS SEE SOME DIFFERENTIATIONS BETWEEN COMPANIES, YOU WANT TO BETWEEN COMPANIES, YOU WANT TO BE ACTIVELY MANAGED NOT ONLY IN BE ACTIVELY MANAGED NOT ONLY IN PICKING SECTORS, BUT WITHIN PICKING SECTORS, BUT WITHIN SOME OF THE HYPERSCALERS AND SOME OF THE HYPERSCALERS AND BIG TECH AROUND AI? BIG TECH AROUND AI? TRACY:

TRACY: DEFINITELY. DEFINITELY. IF YOU LOOK AT THEIR CAPEX IF YOU LOOK AT THEIR CAPEX SPENDING AS A SHARE OF FREE SPENDING AS A SHARE OF FREE CASH FLOW YOU CAN SEE A CASH FLOW YOU CAN SEE A DIVERGENCE AMONG THE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MAGNIFICENT 7, OR AI.

MAGNIFICENT 7, OR AI. YOU CAN SEE, -- YOU CAN SEE YOU CAN SEE, -- YOU CAN SEE SOME COMPANIES ALREADY OVER SOME COMPANIES ALREADY OVER 100%, MEANING THERE CAPEX 100%, MEANING THERE CAPEX EXPENDING IS EXCEEDING THEIR EXPENDING IS EXCEEDING THEIR FREE CASH FLOW. FREE CASH FLOW.

BUT SOME COMPANIES THE BUT SOME COMPANIES THE PERCENTAGES BELOW 20%. PERCENTAGES BELOW 20%.

YOU CAN SEE WHO IS REALLY YOU CAN SEE WHO IS REALLY STRETCHING AND WHO IS STILL STRETCHING AND WHO IS STILL HAVING A LOT OF FREE CASH FLOW HAVING A LOT OF FREE CASH FLOW ROOM FOR EXPANSION. ROOM FOR EXPANSION. DANI: DANI:

YEAR-TO-DATE IT IS A MARKET YEAR-TO-DATE IT IS A MARKET THAT THE BEST-PERFORMING THAT THE BEST-PERFORMING SECTORS HAVE BEEN ANYTHING AI SECTORS HAVE BEEN ANYTHING AI RELATED. RELATED. COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES IS

RELATED. RELATED. COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES IS COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES IS NUMBER ONE, AND INFOTECH, AND NUMBER ONE, AND INFOTECH, AND INDUSTRIALS. INDUSTRIALS.

THOSE LAST TWO YOU COULD ARGUE THOSE LAST TWO YOU COULD ARGUE ABOUT AI. ABOUT AI. THE THING THAT HAS BEEN LEFT

ABOUT AI. ABOUT AI. THE THING THAT HAS BEEN LEFT THE THING THAT HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND IS CONSUMER STAPLES.

BEHIND IS CONSUMER STAPLES. IN CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY IN CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS TOO. STOCKS TOO.

WE HAVE A HOST OF EARNINGS WE HAVE A HOST OF EARNINGS COMING OUT OF SOME OF THE COMING OUT OF SOME OF THE RETAILERS. RETAILERS. SOME OF THEM ARE STRONG.

RETAILERS. RETAILERS. SOME OF THEM ARE STRONG.

SOME OF THEM ARE STRONG. WHEN CAN YOU JUMP IN AND BUY WHEN CAN YOU JUMP IN AND BUY THESE PARTS OF THE ECONOMY THAT THESE PARTS OF THE ECONOMY THAT DON'T TOUCH THE AI-RELATED DON'T TOUCH THE AI-RELATED STORY? STORY? TRACY: TRACY:

NEXT YEAR WE SHOULD SEE A NEXT YEAR WE SHOULD SEE A BROADENING OF THIS AI THEME. BROADENING OF THIS AI THEME.

ESPECIALLY IF YOU LOOK AT THE ESPECIALLY IF YOU LOOK AT THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY OF THE U.S. K-SHAPED ECONOMY OF THE U.S.

ESPECIALLY THE HAVES AND HAS ESPECIALLY THE HAVES AND HAS NOT -- HAVE-NOTS. NOT -- HAVE-NOTS.

I WOULD THINK IF YOU LOOK AT I WOULD THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY THAT THE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY THAT HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE CONSUMER STAPLES, AND I THINK CONSUMER STAPLES, AND I THINK NEXT YEAR THAT WILL PROBABLY NEXT YEAR THAT WILL PROBABLY ACCELERATE THIS KIND OF ACCELERATE THIS KIND OF DISPERSION, BUT IF TRUMP IS DISPERSION, BUT IF TRUMP IS HECKLING THE AFFORDABILITY HECKLING THE AFFORDABILITY

PROBLEM, WE WILL SEE THIS TREND PROBLEM, WE WILL SEE THIS TREND PROBABLY REVERSE A LITTLE BIT PROBABLY REVERSE A LITTLE BIT AND AI EXPANSION OR BROADENING AND AI EXPANSION OR BROADENING THEME SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT THEME SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT YEAR.

YEAR. LISA: LISA: THERE HAS BEEN ABOUT $200 THERE HAS BEEN ABOUT $200 BILLION OF DEBT SALES TIED TO BILLION OF DEBT SALES TIED TO AI IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS AI IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ALONE. ALONE.

I FEEL LIKE IT HAS BEEN AN I FEEL LIKE IT HAS BEEN AN ABSOLUTE BONANZA OVER THE PAST ABSOLUTE BONANZA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. COUPLE OF WEEKS.

I'M WONDERING AT WHAT POINT -- I'M WONDERING AT WHAT POINT -- AT WHAT POINT YOU SAY NAMOR. AT WHAT POINT YOU SAY NAMOR.

TRACY: TRACY: I THINK I'M MORE OPTIMISTIC OF I THINK I'M MORE OPTIMISTIC OF THIS THEME. THIS THEME.

I THINK WE ARE IN THE EARLY I THINK WE ARE IN THE EARLY STAGE. STAGE. AS AN INVESTOR YOU CANNOT MISS

STAGE. STAGE. AS AN INVESTOR YOU CANNOT MISS AS AN INVESTOR YOU CANNOT MISS THIS SECULAR TREND.

THIS SECULAR TREND. THE AI REVOLUTION IS SO THE AI REVOLUTION IS SO MASSIVE. MASSIVE.

IT IS AN ARMS RACE NOT ONLY IT IS AN ARMS RACE NOT ONLY WITHIN THE U.S., BUT ALSO CHINA WITHIN THE U.S., BUT ALSO CHINA AND THE U.S. AND THE U.S. IN THE GOVERNMENT WILL SUPPORT IN THE GOVERNMENT WILL SUPPORT THIS INVESTMENT.

THIS INVESTMENT. I THINK THE MARKET ACTUALLY I THINK THE MARKET ACTUALLY GAVE THE MESSAGE THAT THE GAVE THE MESSAGE THAT THE HYPERSCALER OR HYPER SPENDERS, HYPERSCALER OR HYPER SPENDERS, YOU HAVE TO SLOWDOWN.

YOU HAVE TO SLOWDOWN. THIS KIND OF WINNER TAKE ALL THIS KIND OF WINNER TAKE ALL MENTALITY MIGHT NOT WORK OUT AS MENTALITY MIGHT NOT WORK OUT AS WELL, BECAUSE IN CHINA WE SEE WELL, BECAUSE IN CHINA WE SEE IT IS NOT WINNER TAKE ALL, IT IT IS NOT WINNER TAKE ALL, IT IS WINNERS SHARE ALL.

IS WINNERS SHARE ALL. THERE ARE SEVERAL COMPANIES THERE ARE SEVERAL COMPANIES THAT SHARE WITH EACH OTHER THAT SHARE WITH EACH OTHER THEIR KNOW-HOW AND THEY BUILD THEIR KNOW-HOW AND THEY BUILD SOMETHING TOGETHER.

SOMETHING TOGETHER. BUT IN THE U.S. BUT IN THE U.S.

YOU CAN SEE THIS AGGRESSIVE YOU CAN SEE THIS AGGRESSIVE COMPETITION, BECAUSE OF THE COMPETITION, BECAUSE OF THE WINNER TAKE ALL MENTALITY. WINNER TAKE ALL MENTALITY.

AND THIS AGGRESSIVE NEW AND THIS AGGRESSIVE NEW ISSUANCE IN CORPORATE MARKET ISSUANCE IN CORPORATE MARKET DEFINITELY GETS SOME PUSHBACK DEFINITELY GETS SOME PUSHBACK FROM INVESTORS. FROM INVESTORS.

FROM INVESTORS. FROM INVESTORS.

THE MOST SCRUTINY TO SEE THE THE MOST SCRUTINY TO SEE THE MONETIZATION PACE, RIGHT? MONETIZATION PACE, RIGHT?

WHETHER THE MONITOR IS ASIAN WHETHER THE MONITOR IS ASIAN WORK WELL OR NOT. WORK WELL OR NOT.

THEY START TO DIFFERENTIATE THEY START TO DIFFERENTIATE AMONG DIFFERENT PLAYERS. AMONG DIFFERENT PLAYERS.

AND I THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE AND I THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE SOME SPREAD-WIDENING NEXT YEAR SOME SPREAD-WIDENING NEXT YEAR IN CORPORATE MARKET, AND THIS IN CORPORATE MARKET, AND THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAVE SOME WILL ACTUALLY HAVE SOME PRESSURE ON THE LONG END OF THE PRESSURE ON THE LONG END OF THE TREASURY CURVE. TREASURY CURVE. THAT IS MY VIEW.

TREASURY CURVE. TREASURY CURVE. THAT IS MY VIEW.

THAT IS MY VIEW.

BUT YOU CAN STILL PLAY BUT YOU CAN STILL PLAY DURATION, AND IT HAS STRUCTURAL DURATION, AND IT HAS STRUCTURAL PROTECTION AS WELL. PROTECTION AS WELL.

YOU CAN DIVERSIFY YOUR YOU CAN DIVERSIFY YOUR PORTFOLIO AND BE VERY ACTIVE PORTFOLIO AND BE VERY ACTIVE AND HAVE SOME ACTIVE SELECTION, AND HAVE SOME ACTIVE SELECTION, AND YOU SHOULD HAVE A RETURN. AND YOU SHOULD HAVE A RETURN.

LISA: LISA: TRACY CHEN OF BRANDYWINE, THANK TRACY CHEN OF BRANDYWINE, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

YOU FOR BEING WITH US. JUST TAKING YOU INTO SOME JUST TAKING YOU INTO SOME DETAILS FROM THE ADP REPORT.

DETAILS FROM THE ADP REPORT. JOINING US AGAIN, MICHAEL JOINING US AGAIN, MICHAEL MCKEE. MCKEE.

WE HAVE SOME DETAILS ABOUT WHAT WE HAVE SOME DETAILS ABOUT WHAT POTENTIALLY IS CAUSING THE POTENTIALLY IS CAUSING THE DECELERATION AND WHERE THE DECELERATION AND WHERE THE BRIGHT SPOTS ARE AND WHERE THE BRIGHT SPOTS ARE AND WHERE THE WEAK ONES ARE. WEAK ONES ARE. MIKE: MIKE:

WE DON'T REALLY HAVE ANY WE DON'T REALLY HAVE ANY PARTICULAR BRIGHT SPOTS, OTHER PARTICULAR BRIGHT SPOTS, OTHER THAN HEALTH CARE, WHICH HAS THAN HEALTH CARE, WHICH HAS BEEN NORMALLY THE BIGGEST JOB BEEN NORMALLY THE BIGGEST JOB CREATOR. CREATOR. THE WEAKNESS HAS BEEN

CREATOR. CREATOR. THE WEAKNESS HAS BEEN THE WEAKNESS HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED IN MANUFACTURING CONCENTRATED IN MANUFACTURING AND CONSTRUCTION.

AND CONSTRUCTION. THOSE DON'T SEEM TO BE THOSE DON'T SEEM TO BE IMPROVING. IMPROVING.

WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT ADP WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT ADP HAD PREVIOUSLY REPORTED A GAIN HAD PREVIOUSLY REPORTED A GAIN OF 42,000 JOBS IN THEIR MONTHLY OF 42,000 JOBS IN THEIR MONTHLY REPORT FOR OCTOBER. REPORT FOR OCTOBER.

THIS REPORT OUT TODAY COVERS THIS REPORT OUT TODAY COVERS THE FOUR-WEEKS UP UNTIL THE FOUR-WEEKS UP UNTIL NOVEMBER 8 AND SUGGESTS A NOVEMBER 8 AND SUGGESTS A COLLECTIVE WEEKLY AVERAGE LOSS COLLECTIVE WEEKLY AVERAGE LOSS OF 13,500. OF 13,500. THOSE TWO DON'T SQUARE EXACTLY

OF 13,500. OF 13,500. THOSE TWO DON'T SQUARE EXACTLY THOSE TWO DON'T SQUARE EXACTLY AND THIS IS MUCH MORE OF A AND THIS IS MUCH MORE OF A GLOOMY REPORT. GLOOMY REPORT.

THIS WOULD TAKE YOU INTO THE THIS WOULD TAKE YOU INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

LAST THREE WEEKS OF OCTOBER. LAST THREE WEEKS OF OCTOBER.

IT IS HARD TO GET A CLEAR IT IS HARD TO GET A CLEAR READING ON WHERE THE ECONOMY IS READING ON WHERE THE ECONOMY IS AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT. BUT IT DOES SUGGEST THERE IS BUT IT DOES SUGGEST THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW STRONG SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW STRONG THE ECONOMY -- THE LABOR MARKET THE ECONOMY -- THE LABOR MARKET IS. IS. LISA: LISA:

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THAT. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THAT.

YOU DO SEE 2-YEAR YIELDS YOU DO SEE 2-YEAR YIELDS FALLING IN RESPONSE TO THIS FALLING IN RESPONSE TO THIS REPORT AND LEADING INTO THE REPORT AND LEADING INTO THE DATA WE GET JUST IN ABOUT FIVE DATA WE GET JUST IN ABOUT FIVE MINUTES' TIME. MINUTES' TIME. YOU ARE LOOKING AT A DECLINE OF

MINUTES' TIME. MINUTES' TIME. YOU ARE LOOKING AT A DECLINE OF YOU ARE LOOKING AT A DECLINE OF ABOUT THREE BASIS POINTS.

ABOUT THREE BASIS POINTS. DEFINITELY RAISING QUESTIONS DEFINITELY RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRAJECTORY AND JUST ABOUT THE TRAJECTORY AND JUST HOW STALE SEPTEMBER DATA IS IN HOW STALE SEPTEMBER DATA IS IN A RAPIDLY-MOVING LABOR MARKET.

A RAPIDLY-MOVING LABOR MARKET. DANI: DANI:

THAT IS WHY YOU CARE MORE ABOUT THAT IS WHY YOU CARE MORE ABOUT DATA POINTS LIKE THIS. DATA POINTS LIKE THIS.

IF THERE SHOULD BE A LINEAR IF THERE SHOULD BE A LINEAR MOVE THAT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO MOVE THAT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THAT INFLATION IS. CONTROL THAT INFLATION IS. LISA:

LISA: WE ARE GOING TO BE SPEAKING WE ARE GOING TO BE SPEAKING ABOUT RETAIL SALES AND PPI.

ABOUT RETAIL SALES AND PPI. IT IS DUE IN LESS THAN FIVE IT IS DUE IN LESS THAN FIVE MINUTES TIME. MINUTES TIME.

POOJA SRIRAM OF BARCLAYS IS POOJA SRIRAM OF BARCLAYS IS JOINING US TO REACT TO THE ADP JOINING US TO REACT TO THE ADP FIGURES AS WE SEE A SHIFT IN FIGURES AS WE SEE A SHIFT IN TOWN FROM THE JOBS LANDSCAPE. TOWN FROM THE JOBS LANDSCAPE.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE."

SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE."

♪ ♪ LISA: LISA: 25 SECONDS AWAY FROM RETAIL 25 SECONDS AWAY FROM RETAIL SALES AND PPI DATA FROM SALES AND PPI DATA FROM SEPTEMBER. SEPTEMBER.

YOU ARE SEEING A BIT OF A LIFT YOU ARE SEEING A BIT OF A LIFT IN EQUITY FUTURES. IN EQUITY FUTURES.

S&P FUTURES HIGHER JUST A S&P FUTURES HIGHER JUST A TOUCH, BY LESS THAN A BASIS TOUCH, BY LESS THAN A BASIS POINT. POINT. YOU HAVE NASDAQ FUTURES

POINT. POINT. YOU HAVE NASDAQ FUTURES YOU HAVE NASDAQ FUTURES MEANDERING. MEANDERING.

YOU ARE SEEING THE RUSSELL 2000 YOU ARE SEEING THE RUSSELL 2000 WITH A LEFT OF .5%, WHICH COMES WITH A LEFT OF .5%, WHICH COMES ON THE HEELS OF THE RALLY WE ON THE HEELS OF THE RALLY WE ARE SEEING IN THE BOND MARKET. ARE SEEING IN THE BOND MARKET.

RIGHT NOW WE ARE GETTING THAT RIGHT NOW WE ARE GETTING THAT DATA. DATA. LET'S HEAD OVER TO MICHAEL

DATA. DATA. LET'S HEAD OVER TO MICHAEL LET'S HEAD OVER TO MICHAEL MCKEE WITH RETAIL SALES AND MCKEE WITH RETAIL SALES AND PPI. PPI. MIKE? MIKE?

MIKE: MIKE: WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A DISAPPOINTMENT IN TERMS OF DISAPPOINTMENT IN TERMS OF RETAIL SALES. RETAIL SALES.

HEADLINE RETAIL SALES COME UP HEADLINE RETAIL SALES COME UP .2%. .2%. THERE WERE UP .6% IN AUGUST.

.2%. .2%. THERE WERE UP .6% IN AUGUST.

THERE WERE UP .6% IN AUGUST. THIS IS SEPTEMBER DATA.

THIS IS SEPTEMBER DATA. THE EXPECTATION WAS FOR A .4%

THE EXPECTATION WAS FOR A .4% RISE. RISE.

NEXT AUTO'S ARE UP, WHICH WAS NEXT AUTO'S ARE UP, WHICH WAS FORECAST, BUT THE CONTROL FORECAST, BUT THE CONTROL GROUP, WE DON'T HAVE THAT GROUP, WE DON'T HAVE THAT NUMBER YET. NUMBER YET. WE WILL GET THAT FOR YOU, BUT

NUMBER YET. NUMBER YET. WE WILL GET THAT FOR YOU, BUT WE WILL GET THAT FOR YOU, BUT XOR AUTOS -- EX-AUTOS AND GAS. XOR AUTOS -- EX-AUTOS AND GAS.

THE HEADLINE PPI COMES IN .3 THE HEADLINE PPI COMES IN .3

PERCENT. PERCENT. IT WAS DOWN .1% IN AUGUST, SO IT WAS DOWN .1% IN AUGUST, SO THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN INFLATION ISSUE THERE.

INFLATION ISSUE THERE. THE CORE RATE UP .1% ON A THE CORE RATE UP .1% ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS IS UP YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS IS UP 2.7%. 2.7%.

THAT IS A TAKE-UP IN SEPTEMBER THAT IS A TAKE-UP IN SEPTEMBER FROM AUGUST AND PPI CORE ON A FROM AUGUST AND PPI CORE ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS FALLS BY YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS FALLS BY .2% FROM 2.8%. .2% FROM 2.8%. RETAIL SALES GROUP COMES IN

.2% FROM 2.8%. .2% FROM 2.8%. RETAIL SALES GROUP COMES IN RETAIL SALES GROUP COMES IN DOWN .1% AFTER A .6% RISE IN DOWN .1% AFTER A .6% RISE IN AUGUST. RETAIL SALES, WEAKER

DOWN .1% AFTER A .6% RISE IN AUGUST. RETAIL SALES, WEAKER AUGUST. RETAIL SALES, WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. THAN EXPECTED.

AUGUST. RETAIL SALES, WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. THAN EXPECTED.

INFLATION A LITTLE BIT HARDER INFLATION A LITTLE BIT HARDER THAN EXPECTED, BUT MOSTLY IN THAN EXPECTED, BUT MOSTLY IN THE HEADLINE GROUPS, WHICH THE HEADLINE GROUPS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS THE SAME PROBABLY SUGGESTS THE SAME THING AS RETAIL SALES. THING AS RETAIL SALES.

THAT ENERGY PRICES AND CAR THAT ENERGY PRICES AND CAR PRICES MAY HAVE PLAYED THE ROLE PRICES MAY HAVE PLAYED THE ROLE THERE. THERE. LISA: LISA: WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A

THERE. THERE. LISA: LISA: WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A BUILD ON THE MARKET MOVES WE BUILD ON THE MARKET MOVES WE SAW AFTER ADP. SAW AFTER ADP.

WE SEE THE BIT INTO THE YIELD WE SEE THE BIT INTO THE YIELD CURVE CONTINUING. CURVE CONTINUING.

CURVE CONTINUING. CURVE CONTINUING.

THE SENSE THAT THE FED IS GOING THE SENSE THAT THE FED IS GOING TO BE PROMPTED TO CUT RATES TO BE PROMPTED TO CUT RATES BASED ON THE FACT THAT HEADING BASED ON THE FACT THAT HEADING INTO THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD BACK INTO THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD BACK IN SEPTEMBER IT WAS NOT THAT IN SEPTEMBER IT WAS NOT THAT MUCH MOMENTUM OR AS MUCH AS MUCH MOMENTUM OR AS MUCH AS

PEOPLE HAD EXPECTED AND THAT PEOPLE HAD EXPECTED AND THAT INFLATION MAY BE AT THE INFLATION MAY BE AT THE HEADLINE LEVEL CONCERNING, BUT HEADLINE LEVEL CONCERNING, BUT UNDER THE HOOD NOT SO MUCH. UNDER THE HOOD NOT SO MUCH.

HOW IMPORTANT IS DATA FROM HOW IMPORTANT IS DATA FROM SEPTEMBER THAT WE ARE GETTING SEPTEMBER THAT WE ARE GETTING NOW? NOW? HOW DO YOU UNDERSTAND THIS IN

NOW? NOW? HOW DO YOU UNDERSTAND THIS IN HOW DO YOU UNDERSTAND THIS IN THE SCHEME OF UNDERSTANDING AN THE SCHEME OF UNDERSTANDING AN ECONOMY THAT SEEMS TO BE ECONOMY THAT SEEMS TO BE RAPIDLY MOVING? RAPIDLY MOVING?

MIKE: MIKE: I THINK YOU HIT THE MAJOR I THINK YOU HIT THE MAJOR PROBLEM THERE BY SAYING THE PROBLEM THERE BY SAYING THE ECONOMY IS RAPIDLY MOVING, ECONOMY IS RAPIDLY MOVING, BECAUSE THE FED CANNOT TAKE A BECAUSE THE FED CANNOT TAKE A LOT OF COMFORT IN THIS DATA.

LOT OF COMFORT IN THIS DATA. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER EVEN HAVING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER EVEN HAVING IT, BECAUSE IT TELLS YOU WHERE IT, BECAUSE IT TELLS YOU WHERE WE WERE TWO MONTHS AGO AND THAT WE WERE TWO MONTHS AGO AND THAT IS WAY BEHIND WHERE WE MAY BE IS WAY BEHIND WHERE WE MAY BE NOW. NOW.

THE REAL QUESTION IS, WHAT IN THE REAL QUESTION IS, WHAT IN TERMS OF RETAIL SALES ARE WE TERMS OF RETAIL SALES ARE WE GOING TO SEE THIS HOLIDAY GOING TO SEE THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD? PERIOD? HAVE BLACK FRIDAY TO KICK IT

PERIOD? PERIOD? HAVE BLACK FRIDAY TO KICK IT HAVE BLACK FRIDAY TO KICK IT OFF. OFF.

WHEN YOU SAW THE RETAIL SALES WHEN YOU SAW THE RETAIL SALES NUMBERS, CAR SALES DOWN .3%. NUMBERS, CAR SALES DOWN .3%.

GASOLINE STATIONS WERE UP 2%. GASOLINE STATIONS WERE UP 2%.

GASOLINE AND FOOD, PART OF THE GASOLINE AND FOOD, PART OF THE PROBLEM HERE, CLOTHING AND PROBLEM HERE, CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES DOWN .7% IN THE ACCESSORIES DOWN .7% IN THE

ACCESSORIES DOWN .7% IN THE ACCESSORIES DOWN .7% IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

AND THE SPORTING GOODS, AND THE SPORTING GOODS, HOBBIES, TOYS DOWN 2.5%. HOBBIES, TOYS DOWN 2.5%.

GENERAL MERCHANDISE ONLY UP GENERAL MERCHANDISE ONLY UP .8%.

.8%. PEOPLE WERE SPENDING MONEY ON PEOPLE WERE SPENDING MONEY ON THINGS WE ARE GOING TO SEE THEM THINGS WE ARE GOING TO SEE THEM SPENDING MONEY ON FOR THE SPENDING MONEY ON FOR THE HOLIDAYS, SO IT IS A BIT OF A HOLIDAYS, SO IT IS A BIT OF A WARNING THAT CONSUMERS ARE A WARNING THAT CONSUMERS ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED.

LITTLE CONCERNED. WE HAVE SEEN THAT IN THE WE HAVE SEEN THAT IN THE CONSUMER EXPECTATION NUMBERS AS CONSUMER EXPECTATION NUMBERS AS WELL. WELL. LISA: LISA:

MAYBE WHICH IS WHY WE ARE MAYBE WHICH IS WHY WE ARE SEEING DICK’S SPORTING GOODS SEEING DICK’S SPORTING GOODS SHARES FALLING. SHARES FALLING. I'M SURE THERE IS MORE TO IT.

SHARES FALLING. SHARES FALLING. I'M SURE THERE IS MORE TO IT.

I'M SURE THERE IS MORE TO IT. LET'S HEAD OVER TO POOJA LET'S HEAD OVER TO POOJA SRIRAM, WHO JOINS US IN STUDIO.

SRIRAM, WHO JOINS US IN STUDIO. INC. INC. FOR BEING HERE.

FOR BEING HERE. WHAT IS YOUR INITIAL RATE ON WHAT IS YOUR INITIAL RATE ON NOT JUST THE NUMBERS WE GOT, NOT JUST THE NUMBERS WE GOT, BUT THE IMPORTANCE OF THEM BUT THE IMPORTANCE OF THEM BASED ON THE FACT THAT THEY ARE BASED ON THE FACT THAT THEY ARE PRETTY OLD? PRETTY OLD? POOJA:

POOJA: I THINK, LOOK. I THINK, LOOK.

IN A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE IN A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING A LOT OF FRESH NOT BEEN GETTING A LOT OF FRESH DATA, SOME DATA IS USEFUL. DATA, SOME DATA IS USEFUL.

I WOULD SAY THIS HELPS FILL IN I WOULD SAY THIS HELPS FILL IN THE GAP BETWEEN WHAT HAPPENED THE GAP BETWEEN WHAT HAPPENED BEFORE THIS HOLIDAY SEASON, AND BEFORE THIS HOLIDAY SEASON, AND IF ANYTHING IT IS SLIGHTLY IF ANYTHING IT IS SLIGHTLY USEFUL. USEFUL. YOU ARE ABLE TO BUILD ON A

USEFUL. USEFUL. YOU ARE ABLE TO BUILD ON A YOU ARE ABLE TO BUILD ON A TREND IN TERMS OF WHAT WAS TREND IN TERMS OF WHAT WAS HAPPENING IN THE ECONOMY HAPPENING IN THE ECONOMY HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY PERIOD. PERIOD.

BUT I WOULD NOT DENY IT IS A BUT I WOULD NOT DENY IT IS A BIT BACKWARD-LOOKING. BIT BACKWARD-LOOKING. DANI:

BIT BACKWARD-LOOKING. BIT BACKWARD-LOOKING. DANI:

DANI: IS THERE A TENSION BETWEEN MARY IS THERE A TENSION BETWEEN MARY DALY, SOMEONE CLOSE TO CHAIR DALY, SOMEONE CLOSE TO CHAIR POWELL, SAYING SHE IS MORE POWELL, SAYING SHE IS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LABOR CONCERNED ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET ? MARKET ?

JOHN WILLIAMS SAYING HE WOULD JOHN WILLIAMS SAYING HE WOULD ENDORSE SOMETHING OF A CUT? ENDORSE SOMETHING OF A CUT?

AGAIN, THE TOP LIEUTENANT AT AGAIN, THE TOP LIEUTENANT AT THE FED -- VERSUS THE LAST TIME THE FED -- VERSUS THE LAST TIME WE HEARD FROM CHAIRMAN POWELL, WE HEARD FROM CHAIRMAN POWELL, SAYING WHEN YOU ARE IN THAT SAYING WHEN YOU ARE IN THAT FALL COULD MAKE SENSE TO MOVE FALL COULD MAKE SENSE TO MOVE SLOWLY. SLOWLY. IS THERE TENSION IN THOSE

SLOWLY. SLOWLY. IS THERE TENSION IN THOSE IS THERE TENSION IN THOSE THINGS? THINGS? POOJA: POOJA:

I DON'T THINK SO. I DON'T THINK SO.

ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE CLEAR IS, EVERYONE IS HAVING A CLEAR IS, EVERYONE IS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT IF HARD TIME FIGURING OUT IF POLICY IS GENERALLY RESTRICTIVE POLICY IS GENERALLY RESTRICTIVE AND PEOPLE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT AND PEOPLE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT VIEWS ON THAT. VIEWS ON THAT. IN ADDITION TO THAT, THE DATA IN ADDITION TO THAT, THE DATA MAKES IT DIFFICULT.

MAKES IT DIFFICULT. THE DOVES HAVE SOMETHING TO THE DOVES HAVE SOMETHING TO PICK ON, AND THAT WOULD BE THE PICK ON, AND THAT WOULD BE THE RISE IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISE IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WE SAW. WE SAW. MAYBE EVEN ADP DATA, ALTHOUGH I

WE SAW. WE SAW. MAYBE EVEN ADP DATA, ALTHOUGH I MAYBE EVEN ADP DATA, ALTHOUGH I THINK IT IS A NOISY SIGNAL.

THINK IT IS A NOISY SIGNAL. ON THE OTHER HAND YOU HAVE SOME ON THE OTHER HAND YOU HAVE SOME OF THE OTHERS, THE HAWKS ON THE OF THE OTHERS, THE HAWKS ON THE COMMITTEE WHO ARE GENERALLY COMMITTEE WHO ARE GENERALLY WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION AND WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTEMPORARY DATA BEFORE MAKING CONTEMPORARY DATA BEFORE MAKING A MOVE. A MOVE.

THERE IS A GENUINE DIFFERENCE THERE IS A GENUINE DIFFERENCE OF A FUSE. OF A FUSE. -- OF VIEWS. -- OF VIEWS. LISA:

LISA: DO YOU THINK THAT CONTINUES DO YOU THINK THAT CONTINUES BECAUSE OF THE FOG OR HAS BECAUSE OF THE FOG OR HAS SOMETHING SHIFTED AT THE FED?

SOMETHING SHIFTED AT THE FED? ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET OUR ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET OUR POLITICS INJECTED INTO IT?

POLITICS INJECTED INTO IT? YOU EXPECT THAT REGARDLESS OF YOU EXPECT THAT REGARDLESS OF HOW THE DATA SHAKES OUT THAT HOW THE DATA SHAKES OUT THAT LACK OF CONSENSUS IS THE NEW LACK OF CONSENSUS IS THE NEW NORMAL? NORMAL? POOJA: POOJA:

I WOULD NOT GO AS FAR AS SAY -- I WOULD NOT GO AS FAR AS SAY -- SAYING POLITICS IS COLORING HOW SAYING POLITICS IS COLORING HOW THE FED IS THINKING. THE FED IS THINKING.

NEED TO RECOGNIZE THE FACT THAT NEED TO RECOGNIZE THE FACT THAT THE DATA WE HAVE BEEN GETTING THE DATA WE HAVE BEEN GETTING PAINTS A PICTURE OF A SLIGHT PAINTS A PICTURE OF A SLIGHT TENSION BETWEEN THE TWO TENSION BETWEEN THE TWO MANDATES OF THE FED. MANDATES OF THE FED.

YOU DO HAVE A WORLD WHERE LABOR YOU DO HAVE A WORLD WHERE LABOR MARKET MOMENTUM HAS CLEARLY MARKET MOMENTUM HAS CLEARLY SLOWED. SLOWED. DOWNSIDE RISKS HAVE EMERGED.

SLOWED. SLOWED. DOWNSIDE RISKS HAVE EMERGED.

DOWNSIDE RISKS HAVE EMERGED. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE HAVE NOT ON THE OTHER HAND, WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH PROGRESS ON THE SEEN MUCH PROGRESS ON THE INFLATION FRONT.

INFLATION FRONT. LAST TIME I WAS HERE WE WERE LAST TIME I WAS HERE WE WERE DISCUSSING CORE PCE INFLATION DISCUSSING CORE PCE INFLATION HAS BEEN STUCK AT 2.8%, 2.9% HAS BEEN STUCK AT 2.8%, 2.9% FOR A WHILE NOW.

FOR A WHILE NOW. I THINK THERE IS A LEGITIMATE I THINK THERE IS A LEGITIMATE REASON FOR HAWKS TO BE WORRIED REASON FOR HAWKS TO BE WORRIED ABOUT THE INFLATION SIDE OF THE ABOUT THE INFLATION SIDE OF THE MANDATE. MANDATE. LISA: LISA:

HOW IMPORTANT IS THIS HOLIDAY HOW IMPORTANT IS THIS HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON? SHOPPING SEASON? POOJA: POOJA:

SHOPPING SEASON? SHOPPING SEASON? POOJA: POOJA:

USUALLY IT IS REASONABLY QUITE USUALLY IT IS REASONABLY QUITE TELLING OF CONSUMER MOMENTUM, TELLING OF CONSUMER MOMENTUM, THE HEALTH OF THE CONSUMER, THE HEALTH OF THE CONSUMER, AGAIN, HOW MUCH ARE WE ABLE TO AGAIN, HOW MUCH ARE WE ABLE TO CAPTURE IN THE OFFICIAL DATA IS CAPTURE IN THE OFFICIAL DATA IS QUESTIONABLE, GIVEN WE ARE QUESTIONABLE, GIVEN WE ARE COMING OUT OF A LONG GOVERNMENT COMING OUT OF A LONG GOVERNMENT

SHUTDOWN. SHUTDOWN. USUALLY IT IS SOMETHING PEOPLE

SHUTDOWN. SHUTDOWN. USUALLY IT IS SOMETHING PEOPLE USUALLY IT IS SOMETHING PEOPLE LOOK AT QUITE CLOSELY.

LOOK AT QUITE CLOSELY. LISA: LISA: HOW ACCURATE CAN WE GET A HOW ACCURATE CAN WE GET A READING WHEN WE LOOK AT READING WHEN WE LOOK AT SOMETHING LIKE HOLIDAY SOMETHING LIKE HOLIDAY SHOPPING? SHOPPING?

I WAS STRUCK BY AN ESSAY THAT I WAS STRUCK BY AN ESSAY THAT TALKED ABOUT THE POVERTY LINE. TALKED ABOUT THE POVERTY LINE.

WAS REALLY REFERENCING THREE WAS REALLY REFERENCING THREE TIMES THE AVERAGE FAMILY'S FOOD TIMES THE AVERAGE FAMILY'S FOOD BILL AND THAT FOOD NOW BILL AND THAT FOOD NOW COMPRISES 5% TO 7% OF THE COMPRISES 5% TO 7% OF THE BUDGET RATHER THAN ONE THIRD. BUDGET RATHER THAN ONE THIRD.

IT HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED THE IT HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED THE EQUATION. EQUATION. BUT PEOPLE ARE FEELING ON THAT

EQUATION. EQUATION. BUT PEOPLE ARE FEELING ON THAT BUT PEOPLE ARE FEELING ON THAT LOWER END IS SIGNIFICANT PAIN LOWER END IS SIGNIFICANT PAIN NOT BEING REFLECTED IN THESE NOT BEING REFLECTED IN THESE NUMBERS. NUMBERS.

CANNOT PERSIST? CANNOT PERSIST? CAN YOU HAVE A UNIVERSE WHERE CAN YOU HAVE A UNIVERSE WHERE THERE IS A GROWING COHORT OF THERE IS A GROWING COHORT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE FEELING A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE FEELING A LOT OF PAIN AND NOT A VERBAL -- NOT PAIN AND NOT A VERBAL -- NOT ABLE TO AFFORD THINGS BUT YOU ABLE TO AFFORD THINGS BUT YOU HAVE WEALTHIER INDIVIDUALS THAT

HAVE WEALTHIER INDIVIDUALS THAT CONTINUE TO SPEND AND PROP UP CONTINUE TO SPEND AND PROP UP RETAIL SPENDING?

RETAIL SPENDING? CAN YOU HAVE THAT INDEFINITELY?

CAN YOU HAVE THAT INDEFINITELY? POOJA: POOJA:

I THINK IT IS HARD TO ANSWER. I THINK IT IS HARD TO ANSWER.

DEFINITELY DOESN'T SEEM LIKE IT DEFINITELY DOESN'T SEEM LIKE IT IS A REASONABLE ASSUMPTION TO IS A REASONABLE ASSUMPTION TO HAVE, BUT THAT K-SHAPED ECONOMY HAVE, BUT THAT K-SHAPED ECONOMY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR A WHILE HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR A WHILE NOW. NOW. I THINK IT IS -- YOU KNOW, HE

NOW. NOW. I THINK IT IS -- YOU KNOW, HE I THINK IT IS -- YOU KNOW, HE COMES DOWN TO SOME VERY BASIC COMES DOWN TO SOME VERY BASIC STATISTICS. STATISTICS.

LIKE, THE TOP 20% OF YOUR LIKE, THE TOP 20% OF YOUR INCOME GROUP DRIVES MORE THAN INCOME GROUP DRIVES MORE THAN 40% OF CONSUMER SPENDING. 40% OF CONSUMER SPENDING.

I THINK THAT IS YOUR POINT. I THINK THAT IS YOUR POINT.

THAT YOU COULD HAVE DATA THAT THAT YOU COULD HAVE DATA THAT LOOKS FINE EVEN WHEN YOU HAVE A LOOKS FINE EVEN WHEN YOU HAVE A LOWER INCOME GROUP THAT IS LOWER INCOME GROUP THAT IS CLEARLY FEELING PAIN. CLEARLY FEELING PAIN.

JUST COMING BACK TO YOUR JUST COMING BACK TO YOUR HOLIDAY SEASON SHOPPING, THERE HOLIDAY SEASON SHOPPING, THERE IS ALSO A VIEW THAT CONSUMERS IS ALSO A VIEW THAT CONSUMERS ARE NOW BEING VERY INTENTIONAL ARE NOW BEING VERY INTENTIONAL SPENDERS. SPENDERS.

SPENDERS. SPENDERS.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT SOME OF ONE OF THE THINGS THAT SOME OF THE CREDIT CARD DATA SHOW IS THE CREDIT CARD DATA SHOW IS CONSUMERS HAVE NOT REALLY DONE CONSUMERS HAVE NOT REALLY DONE ALL SEASON SHOPPING AS MUCH ALL SEASON SHOPPING AS MUCH THIS YEAR, BUT IT HAS BEEN A THIS YEAR, BUT IT HAS BEEN A LOT OF SHOPPING THAT HAS BEEN LOT OF SHOPPING THAT HAS BEEN RESERVED FOR PROMOTION PERIOD. RESERVED FOR PROMOTION PERIOD.

INC. INC. ABOUT THE JULY AMAZON PRIME ABOUT THE JULY AMAZON PRIME DAYS EVENT AND PERHAPS COMING DAYS EVENT AND PERHAPS COMING INTO THE HOLIDAY SEASON INTO THE HOLIDAY SEASON SPENDING MAY LOOK FINE.

SPENDING MAY LOOK FINE. DANI: DANI:

THAT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE THE THAT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE THE HEALTHIEST OF DEVELOPMENTS, HEALTHIEST OF DEVELOPMENTS, THAT EVERYBODY IS WAITING FOR THAT EVERYBODY IS WAITING FOR VALUE OR A DEAL. VALUE OR A DEAL.

WINDOWS THAT BECOME SOMETHING WINDOWS THAT BECOME SOMETHING WORSE? WORSE? THAT SUGGESTS THERE IS MORE

WORSE? WORSE? THAT SUGGESTS THERE IS MORE THAT SUGGESTS THERE IS MORE TENSION. TENSION. POOJA: POOJA:

I THINK A LOT OF IT IS ALSO I THINK A LOT OF IT IS ALSO TIED TO THE LABOR MARKET. TIED TO THE LABOR MARKET.

WE HAVE BEEN IN A LABOR MARKET WE HAVE BEEN IN A LABOR MARKET THAT SEEMS VERY STAGNANT SO THAT SEEMS VERY STAGNANT SO FAR.

FAR. WE ARE NOT SEEING AS MANY WE ARE NOT SEEING AS MANY LAYOFFS, BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN LAYOFFS, BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH HIRING AS WELL. MUCH HIRING AS WELL.

THAT IS ALSO LIKELY TO FEED THAT IS ALSO LIKELY TO FEED INTO CONSUMER THINKING AND INTO CONSUMER THINKING AND SENTIMENT. SENTIMENT. TO THE EXTENT THAT THE LABOR

SENTIMENT. SENTIMENT. TO THE EXTENT THAT THE LABOR TO THE EXTENT THAT THE LABOR MARKET IS JUST ABOUT STUCK IN MARKET IS JUST ABOUT STUCK IN THIS PHASE I THINK CAUTION IS THIS PHASE I THINK CAUTION IS PERHAPS WHERE THE CONSUMER IS PERHAPS WHERE THE CONSUMER IS HEADED TOWARDS. HEADED TOWARDS.

IT DEPENDS ON DEVELOPMENTS ON IT DEPENDS ON DEVELOPMENTS ON THAT FRONT. THAT FRONT. DANI: DANI:

THAT FRONT. THAT FRONT. DANI: DANI:

WHAT ABOUT THE HEADLINES COMING WHAT ABOUT THE HEADLINES COMING THROUGH OF VERIZON LETTING GO THROUGH OF VERIZON LETTING GO PEOPLE, AMAZON LETTING GO PEOPLE, AMAZON LETTING GO PEOPLE? PEOPLE? DOES THAT HAVE A MEASURE OF

PEOPLE? PEOPLE? DOES THAT HAVE A MEASURE OF DOES THAT HAVE A MEASURE OF DENTING SENTIMENT?

DENTING SENTIMENT? EVEN IF PEOPLE THEMSELVES HAVE EVEN IF PEOPLE THEMSELVES HAVE NOT LOST THEIR JOB?

NOT LOST THEIR JOB? DOES THAT BECAUSE PULLBACK IN DOES THAT BECAUSE PULLBACK IN PEOPLE'S WILLINGNESS TO SPEND PEOPLE'S WILLINGNESS TO SPEND MONEY? MONEY? POOJA: POOJA:

PERHAPS. PERHAPS. THE MEDIAN NARRATIVE AROUND THE MEDIAN NARRATIVE AROUND THIS HAS BEEN QUITE IMMENSE.

THIS HAS BEEN QUITE IMMENSE. A LOT OF THE HEADLINES, CLEARLY A LOT OF THE HEADLINES, CLEARLY GRABBING ATTENTION.

GRABBING ATTENTION. THESE ARE BIG COMPANIES WE ARE THESE ARE BIG COMPANIES WE ARE TALKING ABOUT. TALKING ABOUT.

IT CANNOT GO UNNOTICED. IT CANNOT GO UNNOTICED.

I'M SURE IT IS FITTING INTO I'M SURE IT IS FITTING INTO SENTIMENT. SENTIMENT. IT IS MAKING MORE RETICENT TO

SENTIMENT. SENTIMENT. IT IS MAKING MORE RETICENT TO IT IS MAKING MORE RETICENT TO SPEND, BUT I THINK IN THE GRAND SPEND, BUT I THINK IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS THE EXTENT OF SCHEME OF THINGS THE EXTENT OF LAYOFFS WE HAVE SEEN ARE STILL LAYOFFS WE HAVE SEEN ARE STILL NOT ALARMING. NOT ALARMING.

YES, THEY HAVE COME FROM BIG YES, THEY HAVE COME FROM BIG COMPANIES, BUT I WOULD SAY IT COMPANIES, BUT I WOULD SAY IT IS ABOUT THE USUAL AMOUNT OF IS ABOUT THE USUAL AMOUNT OF FRICTION YOU WOULD SEE IN THE FRICTION YOU WOULD SEE IN THE LABOR MARKET, WHICH IS IN THE LABOR MARKET, WHICH IS IN THE STATE IT IS RIGHT NOW. STATE IT IS RIGHT NOW.

BUT SURELY SOMETHING WE NEED TO BUT SURELY SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP WATCHING. KEEP WATCHING. LISA: LISA:

KEEP WATCHING. KEEP WATCHING. LISA: LISA:

POOJA SRIRAM, THANK YOU FOR POOJA SRIRAM, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US AND HAVE A BEING WITH US AND HAVE A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING. WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING.

WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING. WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING.

LET'S HEAD BACK TO MICHAEL LET'S HEAD BACK TO MICHAEL MCKEE, WHO HAS DETAILS AFTER MCKEE, WHO HAS DETAILS AFTER PARSING THROUGH THE LATEST PARSING THROUGH THE LATEST RETAIL AND PPI DATA WE GOT OUT RETAIL AND PPI DATA WE GOT OUT OF THE UNITED STATES OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT.

GOVERNMENT. MIKE: MIKE: I WANT TO LOOK AT THE PPI HERE.

I WANT TO LOOK AT THE PPI HERE. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BREAKDOWN WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BREAKDOWN OF GOODS VERSUS SERVICES, THE OF GOODS VERSUS SERVICES, THE INDEX FOR FINAL DEMAND GOODS INDEX FOR FINAL DEMAND GOODS INCREASED .9%, BUT SERVICES INCREASED .9%, BUT SERVICES WERE FLAT. WERE FLAT.

INCREASED .9%, BUT SERVICES WERE FLAT. WERE FLAT.

IT IS THE SERVICE PRICE IT IS THE SERVICE PRICE INCREASES THAT HAVE BEEN INCREASES THAT HAVE BEEN WORRYING FED HAWKS. WORRYING FED HAWKS.

MAYBE THIS GIVES THEM A BIT OF MAYBE THIS GIVES THEM A BIT OF REASSURANCE. REASSURANCE. 60% OF THE SEPTEMBER RISE IN

REASSURANCE. REASSURANCE. 60% OF THE SEPTEMBER RISE IN 60% OF THE SEPTEMBER RISE IN THE INDEX OVERALL IS TRACED TO THE INDEX OVERALL IS TRACED TO GASOLINE, WHICH IS WHAT WE GASOLINE, WHICH IS WHAT WE THOUGHT WHEN WE FIRST SAW THE THOUGHT WHEN WE FIRST SAW THE NUMBERS THERE. NUMBERS THERE. GASOLINE AND CARS.

NUMBERS THERE. NUMBERS THERE. GASOLINE AND CARS.

GASOLINE AND CARS. INDEXES FOR MEAT, RESIDENTIAL INDEXES FOR MEAT, RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC POWER, MOTOR VEHICLES ELECTRIC POWER, MOTOR VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENT ALL WENT UP.

AND EQUIPMENT ALL WENT UP. THAT IS WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN THAT IS WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN HEARING FROM EVERYBODY THESE HEARING FROM EVERYBODY THESE DAYS, AND TERMS OF INFLATION.

DAYS, AND TERMS OF INFLATION. THE FED IS SEEING A PICTURE THE FED IS SEEING A PICTURE THAT BASICALLY UNDERSTANDS.

THAT BASICALLY UNDERSTANDS. NOW THE QUESTION IS, WHAT KIND NOW THE QUESTION IS, WHAT KIND OF DATA DO THEY HAVE TO TELL US OF DATA DO THEY HAVE TO TELL US WHERE WE HAVE GONE FROM HERE?

WHERE WE HAVE GONE FROM HERE? WE DO GET THE GDP REPORT ON WE DO GET THE GDP REPORT ON DECEMBER 23 FOR THE THIRD DECEMBER 23 FOR THE THIRD QUARTER. QUARTER. IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STRONG,

QUARTER. QUARTER. IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STRONG, IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STRONG, GIVEN THE NUMBERS WE HAVE GIVEN THE NUMBERS WE HAVE GOTTEN. GOTTEN.

BUT THE FED IS MORE CONCERNED BUT THE FED IS MORE CONCERNED WITH WHERE WE ARE AT THE MOMENT WITH WHERE WE ARE AT THE MOMENT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. IN THE FOURTH QUARTER.

THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT ON. WAIT ON. LISA: LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALL OF

WAIT ON. WAIT ON. LISA: LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALL OF THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALL OF THAT. THAT.

RIGHT NOW THERE IS AN 80% RIGHT NOW THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE OF A DECEMBER RATE CUT. CHANCE OF A DECEMBER RATE CUT.

THAT IS UP FROM 35% LAST THAT IS UP FROM 35% LAST THURSDAY. THURSDAY. A SENSE OF HOW MUCH THE MARKET

THURSDAY. THURSDAY. A SENSE OF HOW MUCH THE MARKET A SENSE OF HOW MUCH THE MARKET HAS SHIFTED ITS PERCEPTION OF HAS SHIFTED ITS PERCEPTION OF HOW THE FED IS GOING TO HOW THE FED IS GOING TO RESPOND. RESPOND.

LET'S GET YOU AN UPDATE ON LET'S GET YOU AN UPDATE ON STORIES. STORIES. HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF

STORIES. STORIES. HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH VONNIE QUINN.

WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE: VONNIE:

RECAPPING THAT DATA WE GOT, RECAPPING THAT DATA WE GOT, U.S.

U.S. RETAIL SALES IN SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES IN SEPTEMBER RISING .2%. RISING .2%. HALF OF THE ESTIMATE.

RISING .2%. RISING .2%. HALF OF THE ESTIMATE.

HALF OF THE ESTIMATE. PRODUCER PRICES ROSE .3% MONTH

PRODUCER PRICES ROSE .3% MONTH OVER MONTH, WHICH MET OVER MONTH, WHICH MET EXPECTATIONS, BUT TICKED UP EXPECTATIONS, BUT TICKED UP FROM A YEAR EARLIER, WHICH WAS FROM A YEAR EARLIER, WHICH WAS ABOVE ESTIMATES.

ABOVE ESTIMATES.

IN THE LABOR MARKET ADP PRIVATE IN THE LABOR MARKET ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS FELL AN AVERAGE OF PAYROLLS FELL AN AVERAGE OF 13,500 PER WEEK OVER THE FOUR 13,500 PER WEEK OVER THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING NOVEMBER 8. WEEKS ENDING NOVEMBER 8.

APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT CEO APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT CEO MACRON ONE SAYING PEOPLE HAVE MACRON ONE SAYING PEOPLE HAVE LOST THEIR MINDS OVER PRIVATE LOST THEIR MINDS OVER PRIVATE CREDIT FEARS. CREDIT FEARS. REJECTING THE NOTION THAT

CREDIT FEARS. CREDIT FEARS. REJECTING THE NOTION THAT REJECTING THE NOTION THAT ADDING PRIVATE ASSETS TO ADDING PRIVATE ASSETS TO RETIREMENT AND INSURANCE RETIREMENT AND INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS COULD POSE A PORTFOLIOS COULD POSE A SYSTEMIC RISK. SYSTEMIC RISK.

ACCORDING TO THE APOLLO ACCORDING TO THE APOLLO EXECUTIVE MOST PRIVATE CREDIT EXECUTIVE MOST PRIVATE CREDIT HELD BY INSURERS AND PENSION HELD BY INSURERS AND PENSION FUND BUYERS IS RATED INVESTMENT FUND BUYERS IS RATED INVESTMENT GRADE. GRADE.

GRADE. GRADE.

APPLE CUTTING JOBS ACROSS ITS APPLE CUTTING JOBS ACROSS ITS SALES ORGANIZATION IN RARE SALES ORGANIZATION IN RARE LAYOFFS. LAYOFFS. SOURCES TELLING US AT BLOOMBERG

LAYOFFS. LAYOFFS. SOURCES TELLING US AT BLOOMBERG SOURCES TELLING US AT BLOOMBERG THE IPHONE MAKER HAS ELIMINATED THE IPHONE MAKER HAS ELIMINATED DOZENS OF ROLES IN A BID TO DOZENS OF ROLES IN A BID TO STREAMLINE THE WAY IT OFFERS STREAMLINE THE WAY IT OFFERS PRODUCTS TO BUSINESSES.

PRODUCTS TO BUSINESSES. THE AFFECTED POSITIONS INCLUDE THE AFFECTED POSITIONS INCLUDE ACCOUNT MANAGERS AND STAFF ACCOUNT MANAGERS AND STAFF COOPERATE APPLES BRIEFING COOPERATE APPLES BRIEFING CENTERS AND PRODUCT CENTERS AND PRODUCT DEMONSTRATIONS. DEMONSTRATIONS.

THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.

LISA: LISA: UP NEXT, KRISHNA MEMANI OF UP NEXT, KRISHNA MEMANI OF LAFAYETTE COLLEGE AS TRADERS LAFAYETTE COLLEGE AS TRADERS ADD TO RATE CUT THAT'S.

ADD TO RATE CUT THAT'S. PLUS, COLES AND ABERCROMBIE PLUS, COLES AND ABERCROMBIE SHARES SOARING FOLLOWING SHARES SOARING FOLLOWING EARNINGS RESORT SPIRIT -- EARNINGS RESORT SPIRIT -- EARNINGS RESULTS.

EARNINGS RESULTS. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE."

♪ ♪ >> THE THIRD QUARTER RESULTS >> THE THIRD QUARTER RESULTS FROM THE TECH LEADERS SHOW HUGE FROM THE TECH LEADERS SHOW HUGE CAPITAL SPENDING COMMITMENTS CAPITAL SPENDING COMMITMENTS WHICH WILL BOOST INVESTMENT WHICH WILL BOOST INVESTMENT SHARE. SHARE.

"NONE PRODUCTIVITY. "NONE PRODUCTIVITY.

LONGER TERM WE HAVE LOOKED AT LONGER TERM WE HAVE LOOKED AT THIS. THIS.

THIS. THIS.

WE DO FEEL PRODUCTIVITY IS SET WE DO FEEL PRODUCTIVITY IS SET TO GAIN, BUT IT REQUIRES THE TO GAIN, BUT IT REQUIRES THE INVESTMENT FIRST. WE THINK INVESTMENT FIRST. WE THINK

INVESTMENT FIRST. WE THINK INVESTMENT FIRST. WE THINK

THERE IS REASONS TO BE THERE IS REASONS TO BE POSITIVE.

POSITIVE. LISA: LISA:

THAT WAS JON BILL ACKMAN THAT WAS JON BILL ACKMAN JOINING THE CROWD OF INVESTORS JOINING THE CROWD OF INVESTORS WHO ARE SEEING A BETTER 2026, WHO ARE SEEING A BETTER 2026, POTENTIALLY EVEN ANOTHER YEAR POTENTIALLY EVEN ANOTHER YEAR OF DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS. OF DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS.

THIS MORNING YOU ARE SEEING A THIS MORNING YOU ARE SEEING A LIFT PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE LIFT PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD, ALTHOUGH S&P FUTURES BOARD, ALTHOUGH S&P FUTURES GOING NOWHERE AT THIS POINT. GOING NOWHERE AT THIS POINT.

ESSENTIALLY FLAT. ESSENTIALLY FLAT.

YOU ARE SEEING A BID INTO BONDS YOU ARE SEEING A BID INTO BONDS AFTER DATA THAT POINTED TO AFTER DATA THAT POINTED TO ONGOING SOFTNESS, PARTICULARLY ONGOING SOFTNESS, PARTICULARLY IN RETAIL SPENDING. IN RETAIL SPENDING.

10-YEAR YIELDS ALMOST AT THAT 10-YEAR YIELDS ALMOST AT THAT 4% LEVEL. 4% LEVEL. A LITTLE BIT OF DOLLAR

4% LEVEL. 4% LEVEL. A LITTLE BIT OF DOLLAR A LITTLE BIT OF DOLLAR WEAKNESS. WEAKNESS. EURO STRENGTH WITH AN EURO STRENGTH WITH AN INCREASING NUMBER OF INVESTORS INCREASING NUMBER OF INVESTORS GAMING OUT THE IDEA OF ONGOING GAMING OUT THE IDEA OF ONGOING DOLLAR WEAKNESS.

DOLLAR WEAKNESS. UNDER AN HOUR AWAY FROM THE UNDER AN HOUR AWAY FROM THE CASH HERE ARE YOUR MORNING CASH HERE ARE YOUR MORNING MOVERS WITH VONNIE QUINN.

MOVERS WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE: VONNIE:

ONE OF THE STORIES TODAY IS, ONE OF THE STORIES TODAY IS, WHEN WILL NVIDIA'S RELEVANCE IN WHEN WILL NVIDIA'S RELEVANCE IN THE SPACE BE UNDERMINED? THE SPACE BE UNDERMINED?

WE ARE GETTING INFORMATION WE ARE GETTING INFORMATION REPORTING THAT IT IS BUYING REPORTING THAT IT IS BUYING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF GOOGLE'S AI CHIPS. GOOGLE'S AI CHIPS.

THEY ARE TPUS. THEY ARE TPUS. THAT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM FOR THAT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM FOR NVIDIA, SO WE ARE SEEING THE NVIDIA, SO WE ARE SEEING THE STOCK SUFFER. STOCK SUFFER.

AMD AS WELL, AND ALPHABET AMD AS WELL, AND ALPHABET CONTINUING ITS RISE. CONTINUING ITS RISE.

IT IS A VERY BIG QUESTION. IT IS A VERY BIG QUESTION.

NVIDIA HAS BEEN THE MARKET NVIDIA HAS BEEN THE MARKET LEADER FOR SO LONG NOW. LEADER FOR SO LONG NOW.

WHAT WOULD SWITCHING COSTS BE? WHAT WOULD SWITCHING COSTS BE?

IT IS A VERY OPEN QUESTION AND IT IS A VERY OPEN QUESTION AND WE WILL BE GETTING LOTS OF WE WILL BE GETTING LOTS OF ANALYSIS ON THAT THROUGHOUT THE ANALYSIS ON THAT THROUGHOUT THE COMING DAYS. COMING DAYS. THAT'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME

COMING DAYS. COMING DAYS. THAT'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME THAT'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME RETAILERS. RETAILERS.

THERE ARE TWO TURNAROUND THERE ARE TWO TURNAROUND STORIES. STORIES.

STORIES. STORIES.

KOHL'S CONTINUING THE STRATEGY KOHL'S CONTINUING THE STRATEGY IS THE NEW CEO'S PREDECESSOR. IS THE NEW CEO'S PREDECESSOR.

THE THIRD QUARTER REALLY BORE THE THIRD QUARTER REALLY BORE OUT THAT STRATEGY, WHICH WAS TO OUT THAT STRATEGY, WHICH WAS TO FOCUS ON JEWELRY AND PETITES. FOCUS ON JEWELRY AND PETITES.

IT EAT AND RAISED, EVEN THOUGH IT EAT AND RAISED, EVEN THOUGH IT WAS STILL -- STILL SEEING IT WAS STILL -- STILL SEEING LOWER SALES YEAR-OVER-YEAR ON A LOWER SALES YEAR-OVER-YEAR ON A QUARTERLY BASIS. QUARTERLY BASIS.

QUARTERLY BASIS. QUARTERLY BASIS.

THAT SAID, INVESTORS ARE THAT SAID, INVESTORS ARE AWARDING THAT STOCK. AWARDING THAT STOCK.

ABERCROMBIE & FITCH REALLY ABERCROMBIE & FITCH REALLY DELIVERING AS WELL. DELIVERING AS WELL.

FOR THE HOLLISTER BRAND MAINLY. FOR THE HOLLISTER BRAND MAINLY.

SALES FOR HOLLISTER UP 16% AS SALES FOR HOLLISTER UP 16% AS OPPOSED TO A FORECAST FOR 6% TO OPPOSED TO A FORECAST FOR 6% TO 7% THROUGH THE WHOLE COMPANY. 7% THROUGH THE WHOLE COMPANY.

NOT A BAD STORY. NOT A BAD STORY.

THE REVERSE IS BURLINGTON. THE REVERSE IS BURLINGTON.

BURLINGTON USED TO BE KNOWN AS BURLINGTON USED TO BE KNOWN AS BURLINGTON COAT FACTORY AND BURLINGTON COAT FACTORY AND [INDISCERNIBLE] [INDISCERNIBLE] IT MISSED ESTIMATES AND IT MISSED ESTIMATES AND INVESTORS ARE REALLY PUNISHING INVESTORS ARE REALLY PUNISHING THAT STOCK, ALTHOUGH TO BE FAIR THAT STOCK, ALTHOUGH TO BE FAIR ABERCROMBIE WAS DOWN 56% ABERCROMBIE WAS DOWN 56% YEAR-TO-DATE TO DATE BEFORE YEAR-TO-DATE TO DATE BEFORE TODAY'S MOVE. TODAY'S MOVE. BURLINGTON WAS FLAT HERE TODAY.

TODAY'S MOVE. TODAY'S MOVE. BURLINGTON WAS FLAT HERE TODAY.

BURLINGTON WAS FLAT HERE TODAY. LISA: LISA:

HAVE A WONDERFUL REST OF YOUR HAVE A WONDERFUL REST OF YOUR DAY COUNTING DOWN TO THE DAY COUNTING DOWN TO THE OPENING BELL. OPENING BELL. AFTER THE CLOSING BELL EARNINGS

OPENING BELL. OPENING BELL. AFTER THE CLOSING BELL EARNINGS AFTER THE CLOSING BELL EARNINGS FROM DELL AND HP.

FROM DELL AND HP. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER GROUT -- WEDNESDAY ANOTHER GROUT -- ROUND OF JOBLESS CLAIMS. IN THE ROUND OF JOBLESS CLAIMS. IN THE FED RELEASES ITS BEIGE BOOK.

FED RELEASES ITS BEIGE BOOK. THURSDAY MARKETS ARE CLOSED FOR THURSDAY MARKETS ARE CLOSED FOR THANKSGIVING. THANKSGIVING.

BLACK FRIDAY, THE UNOFFICIAL BLACK FRIDAY, THE UNOFFICIAL START OF THE HOLIDAY SEASON. START OF THE HOLIDAY SEASON.

THE PERHAPS THIS IS A BLACK THE PERHAPS THIS IS A BLACK WEEK BECAUSE IT IS CLEARLY A WEEK BECAUSE IT IS CLEARLY A FULL WEEK AFFAIR. FULL WEEK AFFAIR.

KRISHNA MEMANI OF LAFAYETTE KRISHNA MEMANI OF LAFAYETTE COLLEGE WRITING, BEFORE THE COLLEGE WRITING, BEFORE THE SHUTDOWN STRONGER HARD DATA SHUTDOWN STRONGER HARD DATA ANCHORED MARKET EXPECTATIONS. ANCHORED MARKET EXPECTATIONS.

LACK OF HARD DATA IS GIVING LACK OF HARD DATA IS GIVING VIBES FOR YOUR SPACE. VIBES FOR YOUR SPACE.

KRISHNA JOINS US NOW FOR HIS KRISHNA JOINS US NOW FOR HIS VIBES AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. VIBES AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

WHY IS THIS PROBLEMATIC GIVEN WHY IS THIS PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT PEOPLE HAVE THE FACT THAT PEOPLE HAVE LEARNED TO DEPEND MUCH MORE ON LEARNED TO DEPEND MUCH MORE ON ALTERNATIVE DATA SOURCES, ALTERNATIVE DATA SOURCES, WHETHER IT IS ADP OR SOME OF WHETHER IT IS ADP OR SOME OF THE CORPORATE EXECUTIVES ON THE CORPORATE EXECUTIVES ON EARNINGS CALLS? EARNINGS CALLS? KRISHNA: KRISHNA:

EARNINGS CALLS? EARNINGS CALLS? KRISHNA: KRISHNA:

I THINK PEOPLE TALK A GOOD I THINK PEOPLE TALK A GOOD GAME, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT HOW GAME, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT HOW MARKETS HAVE REACTED OVER THE MARKETS HAVE REACTED OVER THE PAST FOUR, FIVE QUARTERS, THE PAST FOUR, FIVE QUARTERS, THE VIBE DATA HAS BEEN REASONABLY VIBE DATA HAS BEEN REASONABLY SOFT, AND THE HARD DATA COMES SOFT, AND THE HARD DATA COMES

OUT AND KIND OF GETS IT OUT OF OUT AND KIND OF GETS IT OUT OF THAT PARTICULAR FUNK. THAT PARTICULAR FUNK.

ALTERNATE DATA CERTAINLY IS ALTERNATE DATA CERTAINLY IS HELPFUL, BUT I DON'T THINK THEY HELPFUL, BUT I DON'T THINK THEY TELL YOU THE WHOLE PICTURE. TELL YOU THE WHOLE PICTURE.

IT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE FOR A IT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE FOR A WHILE. WHILE.

WHILE. WHILE.

IF THIRD QUARTER GDP IS GOING IF THIRD QUARTER GDP IS GOING TO BE REASONABLY STRONG AND THE TO BE REASONABLY STRONG AND THE UNDERLYING DEFICIT SITUATION UNDERLYING DEFICIT SITUATION HAS NOT CHANGED THAT HAS NOT CHANGED THAT DRAMATICALLY, AT LEAST NOT YET, DRAMATICALLY, AT LEAST NOT YET, THEN IT IS KIND OF UNREASONABLE THEN IT IS KIND OF UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT FOR THINGS TO SLOW TO EXPECT FOR THINGS TO SLOW DOWN MASSIVELY DESPITE THE DOWN MASSIVELY DESPITE THE

VIBES. VIBES. DANI: DANI: DOES THAT MEAN THOSE ON THE FED

VIBES. VIBES. DANI: DANI: DOES THAT MEAN THOSE ON THE FED DOES THAT MEAN THOSE ON THE FED ARGUING FOR CUTTER -- ARE ARGUING FOR CUTTER -- ARE MAKING THAT ARGUMENT BASED OFF MAKING THAT ARGUMENT BASED OFF OF VIBES? OF VIBES?

IS THAT A PROBLEM THAT THEY IS THAT A PROBLEM THAT THEY ARE?

ARE? KRISHNA: KRISHNA:

PART OF IT IS VIBES, BUT THE PART OF IT IS VIBES, BUT THE LABOR MARKET IS SOFTENING, AND LABOR MARKET IS SOFTENING, AND THEREFORE GETTING AHEAD OF IT THEREFORE GETTING AHEAD OF IT MAKES A LITTLE BIT OF SENSE. MAKES A LITTLE BIT OF SENSE.

I WAS A LITTLE SURPRISED AS TO I WAS A LITTLE SURPRISED AS TO HOW HARD JAY POWELL PUSHED ON HOW HARD JAY POWELL PUSHED ON -- PUSHED AGAINST THAT CUT IN -- PUSHED AGAINST THAT CUT IN THE LAST MEETING. THE LAST MEETING.

HE CLEARLY HAD A BIT OF A HE CLEARLY HAD A BIT OF A SITUATION IN THE COMMITTEE. SITUATION IN THE COMMITTEE.

I THINK WITH EVERYONE ELSE I THINK WITH EVERYONE ELSE LINING UP, WHERE AT LEAST THE LINING UP, WHERE AT LEAST THE VOTING MEMBERS LINING UP, HE IS VOTING MEMBERS LINING UP, HE IS IN A MUCH BETTER SITUATION. IN A MUCH BETTER SITUATION.

THAT IS GETTING REFLECTED IN THAT IS GETTING REFLECTED IN THE MARKET PRICES. THE MARKET PRICES.

BUT THERE IS SOFTENING IN THE BUT THERE IS SOFTENING IN THE LABOR DATA, WITHOUT ANY DOUBT. LABOR DATA, WITHOUT ANY DOUBT.

DANI: DANI: WE HAVE TO READ THE TEA LEAVES WE HAVE TO READ THE TEA LEAVES TO UNDERSTAND WHERE THIS TO UNDERSTAND WHERE THIS ECONOMY IS, AND WHEN IT COMES ECONOMY IS, AND WHEN IT COMES TO THE FED WE HAVE GOTTEN TO A TO THE FED WE HAVE GOTTEN TO A PLACE WHERE WE ARE COUNTING PLACE WHERE WE ARE COUNTING EACH VOTE. EACH VOTE.

WHO WAS ON THE HAWKISH SIDE? WHO WAS ON THE HAWKISH SIDE?

WHO IS THE TOP LIEUTENANT THAT WHO IS THE TOP LIEUTENANT THAT COULD SWAY THINGS? COULD SWAY THINGS?

IS IT A PROBLEM THAT YOU DON'T IS IT A PROBLEM THAT YOU DON'T HAVE THAT THEY ARE MESSAGE HAVE THAT THEY ARE MESSAGE COMING OUT FROM THE FED? COMING OUT FROM THE FED?

AS WE HAVE SEEN, IT TRANSMITS AS WE HAVE SEEN, IT TRANSMITS INTO MARKETS, AND THERE HAS INTO MARKETS, AND THERE HAS BEEN VOLATILITY FROM THAT. BEEN VOLATILITY FROM THAT.

IN THIS NEW ERA WHERE THE IN THIS NEW ERA WHERE THE ECONOMY IS CONFUSING AND THERE ECONOMY IS CONFUSING AND THERE IS A DIVIDE AMONG THE FED, IS IS A DIVIDE AMONG THE FED, IS THAT PROBLEMATIC FOR THE THAT PROBLEMATIC FOR THE TRANSMISSION OF POLICY? TRANSMISSION OF POLICY? KRISHNA:

KRISHNA: IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, YOU IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE TWO SEPARATE KNOW, YOU HAVE TWO SEPARATE BLOCKS FORMING ON THE BLOCKS FORMING ON THE COMMITTEE. COMMITTEE.

IT'S THOSE ARE -- YOU KNOW, THE IT'S THOSE ARE -- YOU KNOW, THE PRESIDENT IS ON ONE SIDE AND PRESIDENT IS ON ONE SIDE AND THE FOMC MEMBERS ARE ON THE THE FOMC MEMBERS ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE. OTHER SIDE. THE CHALLENGE IS, WHEN JAY

OTHER SIDE. OTHER SIDE. THE CHALLENGE IS, WHEN JAY THE CHALLENGE IS, WHEN JAY POWELL WAS IN CHARGE AND THERE POWELL WAS IN CHARGE AND THERE WERE NOT ALL SORTS OF WERE NOT ALL SORTS OF POLITICKING GOING ON IT WAS POLITICKING GOING ON IT WAS EASY TO KIND OF GET TO A EASY TO KIND OF GET TO A CONSENSUS. CONSENSUS.

RIGHT NOW YOU CANNOT GET TO RIGHT NOW YOU CANNOT GET TO THAT CONSENSUS. THAT CONSENSUS. I THINK UNTIL THE NEW CHAIRMAN

THAT CONSENSUS. THAT CONSENSUS. I THINK UNTIL THE NEW CHAIRMAN I THINK UNTIL THE NEW CHAIRMAN IS ANNOUNCED THAT PARTICULAR IS ANNOUNCED THAT PARTICULAR CHALLENGE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST CHALLENGE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST WITH US AND WE WILL HAVE TO WITH US AND WE WILL HAVE TO KIND OF SLOT THROUGH IT KIND OF SLOT THROUGH IT SOMEHOW. SOMEHOW.

THAT BEING SAID, I THINK, AS I THAT BEING SAID, I THINK, AS I SAID BEFORE, THE LABOR MARKET SAID BEFORE, THE LABOR MARKET WAS SLOWING, CONTINUES TO SLOW WAS SLOWING, CONTINUES TO SLOW A LITTLE BIT. A LITTLE BIT. NOT CATASTROPHICALLY SO.

NOT CATASTROPHICALLY SO.

I THINK THE PUSHBACK FOR THE I THINK THE PUSHBACK FOR THE LAST CUT FOR THE FUTURE CUT LAST CUT FOR THE FUTURE CUT THAT JAY POWELL PROVIDED, MAYBE THAT JAY POWELL PROVIDED, MAYBE WAS SLIGHTLY MISPLACED IN THE WAS SLIGHTLY MISPLACED IN THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN CALLING HIM MARKETS HAVE BEEN CALLING HIM OUT ON IT. OUT ON IT. LISA: LISA:

HEADING INTO 2026, THIS IS THE HEADING INTO 2026, THIS IS THE MOMENT OF YOUR AHEAD OUTLOOKS MOMENT OF YOUR AHEAD OUTLOOKS AND EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE GIVING AND EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE GIVING ONE. ONE. HOW ARE YOU SEEING THE YEAR

ONE. ONE. HOW ARE YOU SEEING THE YEAR HOW ARE YOU SEEING THE YEAR SHAPE UP IN TERMS OF SHAPE UP IN TERMS OF RISK-REWARD FOR STOCK-BOND RISK-REWARD FOR STOCK-BOND ALLOCATION AND WHAT YOU BAKING ALLOCATION AND WHAT YOU BAKING IN IN TERMS OF THAT ACTION IN IN TERMS OF THAT ACTION BEHIND THAT? BEHIND THAT?

KRISHNA: KRISHNA: I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE MARKET PROJECTIONS THERE ARE A MARKET PROJECTIONS THERE ARE A FEW MORE CUTS COMING DOWN THE FEW MORE CUTS COMING DOWN THE PIKE. PIKE.

BUT THE KEY THING WITH CUTS BUT THE KEY THING WITH CUTS HIS, EVEN IF THEY DO, I DON'T HIS, EVEN IF THEY DO, I DON'T THINK THEY CHANGE THE TONE OF THINK THEY CHANGE THE TONE OF THE MARKET MEANINGFULLY. THE MARKET MEANINGFULLY.

IT WILL STILL BE DRIVEN BY IT WILL STILL BE DRIVEN BY GROWTH, IT WILL STILL BE DRIVEN GROWTH, IT WILL STILL BE DRIVEN BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE LABOR BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE LABOR MARKET. MARKET. I THINK ONE OR TWO CUTS IN THE

MARKET. MARKET. I THINK ONE OR TWO CUTS IN THE I THINK ONE OR TWO CUTS IN THE FRONT END OF THE MARKET, YOU FRONT END OF THE MARKET, YOU KNOW, LOOK AT 10-YEAR.

KNOW, LOOK AT 10-YEAR. IT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DESPITE IT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DESPITE ALL OF THE TALK OF THE FED ALL OF THE TALK OF THE FED CUTTING OR NOT CUTTING.

CUTTING OR NOT CUTTING. THAT IS THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THAT IS THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE INFLATION IS STILL UP, SO THE INFLATION IS STILL UP, SO THE 10 YEAR CANNOT DROP TOO MUCH 10 YEAR CANNOT DROP TOO MUCH AND GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN.

AND GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN. SO, AT LEAST MODESTLY, ANYWAY.

SO, AT LEAST MODESTLY, ANYWAY. THAT IS NOT AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE RISK ASSETS DO FABULOUSLY WHERE RISK ASSETS DO FABULOUSLY WELL OFF OF VERY HIGH WELL OFF OF VERY HIGH VALUATIONS. VALUATIONS.

I THINK THAT IS THE CHALLENGE I THINK THAT IS THE CHALLENGE FOR THE MARKET RIGHT NOW. FOR THE MARKET RIGHT NOW. LISA:

LISA: YOU SEE A MIDDLING 2026 IN YOU SEE A MIDDLING 2026 IN TERMS OF RETURNS FOR STOCKS AND TERMS OF RETURNS FOR STOCKS AND BONDS? BONDS? KRISHNA: KRISHNA: YES. YES.

BONDS? BONDS? KRISHNA: KRISHNA: YES. YES.

THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE SAYING IT WILL BE ANOTHER SAYING IT WILL BE ANOTHER DOUBLE DIGIT-TYPE OF -- YOU DOUBLE DIGIT-TYPE OF -- YOU KNOW, A HIGH DOUBLE DIGIT-TYPE KNOW, A HIGH DOUBLE DIGIT-TYPE RETURNS. RETURNS. I CANNOT SQUARE THAT WITH WHAT

RETURNS. RETURNS. I CANNOT SQUARE THAT WITH WHAT I CANNOT SQUARE THAT WITH WHAT I SEE THERE. I SEE THERE.

FOR THAT, EVERYTHING BUT FOR THAT, EVERYTHING BUT OBVIOUSLY RELATED STUFF HAS TO OBVIOUSLY RELATED STUFF HAS TO COME BEFORE IT IS LIKELY TO COME BEFORE IT IS LIKELY TO COME. COME.

COME. COME.

I THINK THE PROFITABILITY I THINK THE PROFITABILITY OUTLOOK IS DECENT, BUT NOT AS OUTLOOK IS DECENT, BUT NOT AS SUPERLATIVE RELATIVE TO CURRENT SUPERLATIVE RELATIVE TO CURRENT VALUATIONS. VALUATIONS. THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE

VALUATIONS. VALUATIONS. THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE MARKET. FOR THE MARKET.

LISA: LISA: KRISHNA MEMANI. KRISHNA MEMANI.

HAVE A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING. HAVE A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING.

IT FEELS LIKE A RUBIK'S CUBE IT FEELS LIKE A RUBIK'S CUBE RIGHT NOW. RIGHT NOW. IT FEELS LIKE PEOPLE ARE

RIGHT NOW. RIGHT NOW. IT FEELS LIKE PEOPLE ARE IT FEELS LIKE PEOPLE ARE PICKING AT DIFFERENT THREADS OF PICKING AT DIFFERENT THREADS OF THE NARRATIVE, POINTING TO THE THE NARRATIVE, POINTING TO THE IDEA OF RATE CUTS WITH THE AI IDEA OF RATE CUTS WITH THE AI ESCALATION AND SAYING IT IS ESCALATION AND SAYING IT IS GOING TO BE A REALLY GOOD 2026.

GOING TO BE A REALLY GOOD 2026. OTHER PEOPLE SAYING, IT IS NOT OTHER PEOPLE SAYING, IT IS NOT SO HOT. SO HOT.

WHAT YOU FOCUSED ON IN THE NEXT WHAT YOU FOCUSED ON IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS? COUPLE OF HOURS?

I KNOW YOU'RE GOING TO BE I KNOW YOU'RE GOING TO BE HEADING OVER TO DO ANOTHER TWO HEADING OVER TO DO ANOTHER TWO HOURS OF TELEVISION. HOURS OF TELEVISION. DANI: DANI:

IT HAS TO BE THE TURN IT HAS TO BE THE TURN UNDERNEATH THESE TECH PLAYERS. UNDERNEATH THESE TECH PLAYERS.

IT DOMINATES ALL OF THESE IT DOMINATES ALL OF THESE THEMES, BECAUSE IT IS AN THEMES, BECAUSE IT IS AN ECONOMY BECOMING MORE RELIANT ECONOMY BECOMING MORE RELIANT ON THE AI SPEND. ON THE AI SPEND.

IF NVIDIA IS LOSING SOME OF ITS IF NVIDIA IS LOSING SOME OF ITS THRONE TO GOOGLE, WHAT DOES THRONE TO GOOGLE, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR INVESTMENTS AND THAT MEAN FOR INVESTMENTS AND THE AMERICAN ECONOMY? THE AMERICAN ECONOMY? LISA:

LISA: THIS IS WHAT WE ARE GOING TO BE THIS IS WHAT WE ARE GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT FOR DAYS AND TALKING ABOUT FOR DAYS AND WEEKS TO COME. WEEKS TO COME.

COMING UP TOMORROW, DEBORAH COMING UP TOMORROW, DEBORAH CUNNINGHAM OF FEDERATED HERMES, CUNNINGHAM OF FEDERATED HERMES, AND VENU KRISHNA OF BARCLAYS. AND VENU KRISHNA OF BARCLAYS.

THIS WAS "BLOOMBERG THIS WAS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE."

SURVEILLANCE." SURVEILLANCE."

♪ ♪