Bloomberg Surveillance 12/9/2025

>> THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL, THINGS ARE GREAT.

>> WE ARE ENTERING THIS PHASE OF AI APPLICATION.

>> IT'S NOT A BUBBLE. IT'S A BOOM WITH A STRUCTURAL CHANGE.

>> AI WILL CHANGE THE WORLD. WHO WILL BE THE WINNERS?

>> YOU CAN LOOK AT EITHER SIDE OF THE COIN ON THE DATA OUT HERE. YOU COULD BE BULLISH OR BEARISH.

HERE. YOU COULD BE BULLISH OR BEARISH.

>> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE," WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, ANNMARIE HORDERN.

LISA: SOX RAGING BACK AS INTO'S YOU HAVE IS -- ENTHUSIASM IS CURVED OVER RATE CUTS.

MACRO ANALYSIS GIVES WAY TO BOARD ROOM DRAMA WITH THE PARAMOUNT HOSTILE TAKEOVER BID FOR WARNER BROS., SETTING THE STAGE FOR A NEW CHAPTER IN MEDIA .

NVIDIA, GETTING A WIN WITH TRUMP SIGNING OFF ON SALES OF H 200 SHIPS TO CHINA. IF THEY SELL IT, WILL THEY BUY?

ANNMARIE: GREAT QUESTION. OVER THE SUMMER WHEN THEY GAVE THE GREEN LIGHT FOR THE H20 CHIPS, CHINA TOLD THEIR FIRMS NOT TO BUY THEM, WE ARE SHRUGGING THEM OFF.

THE FINANCIAL TIMES IS NOW REPORTING HOW CHINESE REGULATORS ARE DISCUSSING WAYS TO LIMIT PERMITS FOR ACCESS TO THE H 200 SHIPS. BUYERS NEED TO GO THROUGH AN APPROVAL PROCESS. MAYBE SOME CHINESE COMPANIES

APPROVAL PROCESS. MAYBE SOME CHINESE COMPANIES CAN BUY THEM, BUT NOT ALL. REMEMBER, CHINA WANTS TO MAKE SURE THEY HAVE THEIR OWN NATIONAL CHAMPION. LISA:

IT REALLY IS NOTABLE AS IT RAISES THE QUESTION OF THE CONCEPT OF NATIONAL SECURITY CHANGING WHEN THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TAKING A GREATER CLUTCH OVER CORPORATE AMERICA THAN EVER BEFORE. IS THERE A SENSE OF MORE OF A RISK FOR TECH COMPANIES BOUND TO HAVE A PRESENCE INTERNATIONALLY TO SEQUESTER SOME HIGH TECH TECHNOLOGY?

ANNMARIE: IT'S A LIVE ACTIVE DEBATE AT THE WHITE HOUSE. INDIVIDUALS WHO THINK YOU NEED TO GET THE WORLD ADDICTED TO U.S.

TECHNOLOGY AND OTHERS WHO THINK THAT WE CANNOT GIVE CHINA AN INCH WHEN IT COMES TO THE MOST ADVANCED CHIPS AND NATIONAL SECURITY. IT'S NOT JUST IPHONES THEY GO

SECURITY. IT'S NOT JUST IPHONES THEY GO IN. THESE ARE USED FOR THE MILITARY.

IN. THESE ARE USED FOR THE MILITARY.

THE DEBATE IS ACTIVE AND AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TECH SECTOR, ESPECIALLY JENSEN HUANG, IS WINNING THE DEBATE.

I THINK THAT FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY CHINA HAWKS IN WASHINGTON WHO BACK TO THE PRESIDENT IN 2016 BECAUSE THEY LIKED HIS CHINA RHETORIC, THEY ARE THINKING THIS IS A HUGE PIVOT. LISA: ANOTHER HUGE PIVOT, SOMETHING

PIVOT. LISA: ANOTHER HUGE PIVOT, SOMETHING THAT WE KEEP WATCHING, IT WILL BE THE NEW "GAME OF THRONES," PARAMOUNT COMING OUT WITH A HOSTILE BID TO TAKE OVER WARNER BROS.. SOME OF THE CHARACTERS BEHIND

BROS.. SOME OF THE CHARACTERS BEHIND IT ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. JARED KUSHNER, ABU DHABI, SAUDI ARABIA, LINING UP TO GET BEHIND DAVID ELLISON WHO SAYS TO SHAREHOLDERS VOTE FOR US, WE HAVE THE SIGNOFF FROM TRUMP.

HOW MUCH IS THIS ABOUT WHO GETS THE BLESSING OF THE PRESIDENT TO CARRY IT THROUGH? ANNMARIE: YESTERDAY THE PRESIDENT SAID THAT NONE OF THESE INDIVIDUALS ARE MY FRIENDS.

WHICH YOU WOULD HAVE TO THINK FOR JARED KUSHNER COULD BE A DAGGER TO THE HEART, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO HIS PRIVATE EQUITY PARTNER FIRM FUNDS -- FRIENDS, THEY ARE SHOWING UP WITH BACKING AND CAPITAL AND NOT GETTING A SEAT ON THE BOARD, WHICH IS WHY THE ELLISON FAMILY THINKS THEY CAN GET REGULATORY APPROVAL. BUT THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT'S

APPROVAL. BUT THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT'S GOING TO END. WARNER BROS., VALUING THIS DEAL AT 108 BILLION DOLLARS, I BELIEVE THEY WILL HAVE 10 DAYS IN THE NETFLIX WILL HAVE ANOTHER FOUR DAYS.

IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A FIGHT AND ITS CLASSIC TRUMP.

THE SAME WAY THAT HE HAS PICKED TREASURY SECRETARY'S IN THIS WARD OF ROSES BACHELOR, HOWEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT, IT'S LIKE HE'S PUTTING HIMSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS AND THINKS THAT IT SHOULD BE THE BEST DEAL FOR WARNER BROS.. LISA:

BARBARIANS AT THE GATE. THE OTHER DRAMA HEADS INTO THE FED MEETING WITH A RATE DECISION, TAKING A LOOK AT THE DRUMBEAT, WE HAVE THE JOLTED JOB OPENING DATA COMING OUT AT 10 A.M. EASTERN AND THEN LATER TODAY WE

10 A.M. EASTERN AND THEN LATER TODAY WE DO GET SOME OPTIONS, AS WELL AS HEADING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE ECI ORACLE EARNINGS, THE FED RATE DECISION AND JOBLESS CLAIMS ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW FUTURES ARE LITTLE CHANGED AFTER BREAKING THEIR WINNING STREAK YESTERDAY.

IT REALLY WAS ALL PREDICATED ON THE YIELD SPACE.

THE IDEA THAT YIELDS ARE RISING AFTER A REVERSAL WITH TWO BASIS POINT SELLOFFS IN YIELDS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT YIELDS HOVERING NEAR THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER, IS THIS BECAUSE OF THE FEDERAL DESPITE THE FED GIVEN THE GLOBAL LANDSCAPE? COMING UP IN THIS HOUR, WE

VISIT OPPENHEIMER AHEAD OF A KEY FED RATE DECISION.

WHEN THE SHILLER AND PRESIDENT TRUMP RAMPING UP THE AFFORDABILITY MESSAGE. GENE SEROKA WITH HOW TARIFFS

AFFORDABILITY MESSAGE. GENE SEROKA WITH HOW TARIFFS ARE IMPACTING GLOBAL TRADE. WE BEGIN THE HOUR WITH STOCKS HOLDING STEADY AS INVESTORS LOOK AHEAD TO THE TWO DAY MEETING.

JOHN'S OFFICE OF OPPENHEIMER RAISING HIS TARGET ON THE S&P 500 FOR 2026 TO A HIGH OF 8500, THE BIGGEST BULL ON WALL STREET WRITING THAT MONETARY POLICY, FISCAL POLICY, CORPORATE INNOVATION EARNINGS GROWTH, KEY TO GROWING REVENUES IN THE YEAR AHEAD. JOHN, YOU HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST

AHEAD. JOHN, YOU HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST BULL AND YOU HAVE BEEN RIGHT. WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THIS TIME PEOPLE ARE GETTING IT WRONG ABOUT HOW ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY MAKERS ARE GOING TO BE?

>> LISA, THE BIG THING IS WE ARE IN A PROCESS OF NORMALIZATION COMING OUT OF A HIKE CYCLE AND A REMARKABLE HIKE CYCLE BECAUSE THE FED RAISED RATES 11 TIMES, ON PAUSE FOR 14 WITH ONLY FIVE CUTS IN THE PROCESS WITH ONLY -- WITH NO RECESSION BRINGING INFLATION GROWTH DOWN TO, BASED ON THE

PCE, BETWEEN 2.8 AND THREE. IT LOOKS GOOD, SHOWING SENSITIVITY FOR THE DUAL MANDATE, A BALANCE.

THERE'S A BIT OF WALKING THE TIGHT ROPE FOR JEROME POWELL, BUT HE LOVES IT, HE'S A PRO. HE'S GOT TO WALK THAT TIGHT ROPE TO GIVE YOU A BALANCE TO GET ENOUGH STIMULUS FOR THE ECONOMY, ESSENTIALLY, FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH WITHOUT UPSETTING THE JOBS CAR TERRIBLY. WE MOVE FORWARD.

AROUND THE WORLD, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE SEEN INTEREST RATE CUTS.

NOW THIS THOUGHT THAT IT HAS GONE TOO FAR?

IT'S GOT THE OVERRIDE OF THE BERNANKE LEGACY, HIGH TRANSPARENCY COMMUNICATIONS IN POLICY, THE WAY THE FED OPERATES. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THAT

OPERATES. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THAT NORMALIZATION AND INFLATION TENDS TO BE STICKIER FOR LONGER AFTER YOU HAVE HAD UNTOWARD LEVELS OF INFLATION.

IT CAN TAKE A WHILE TO WORK OUT IN THE SYSTEM AND IT IS A DRAMA THAT TRADERS AND INVESTORS NEED TO WORK OUT TO PLAY TO THEIR BENEFIT. LISA:

BENEFIT. LISA: RIGHT NOW PEOPLE ARE RATCHETING BACK EXPECTATIONS FOR NEXT YEAR TO TWO RATE CUTS FROM THREE. I AM WONDERING, THOUGH, HOW MUCH THAT MATTERS VERSUS THE AI TRADE.

A RECENT GOLDMAN SACHS SURVEY HAS INVESTORS AGREEING WITH YOU ON THE BASIS THAT YOU WILL GET FED RATE CUTS BUT DISAGREE THAT YOU WILL GET THAT KIND OF SCREAMING RETURN BECAUSE THE AI TRADE IS HITTING ROADBLOCKS AND IS NOT IN HYPER GROWTH.

HOW MUCH DO YOU AGREE? JOHN:

SOME OF THAT SOUNDS TO ME LIKE THE TRADING ESTABLISHMENT.

IT'S THE ACTION, WHERE CAN YOU ADD BIDS TO THE BUCKET IN TRADING WORKING WITH THE SPREAD ON A DAILY BASIS?

I WOULD HAVE TO SAY THAT THIS JUST ISN'T UNCOMMON.

THERE ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS. YOU HAVE TO INVEST A LOT OF MONEY TO DO WHAT THIS PROPOSES TO DO.

WHETHER IT IS THE DATA CENTERS, ALL THE ANCILLARY SOFTWARE, THE DESIGN CHANGES TO BE MADE TO. THE COMPANIES THAT ARE DOING IT ARE VERY WELL POSITIONED IN TERMS OF THEIR BALANCE SHEET.

WHEN THEY BORROW MONEY, IT IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY WOULD RATHER KEEP THAT CASH ON THE BALANCE SHEET AND USE OTHER PEOPLES MONEY. THE OLD THING FROM THE OLD DAYS.

PEOPLES MONEY. THE OLD THING FROM THE OLD DAYS.

LOOKING AT IT, TO ME AI IS FOR REAL.

WHENEVER I TALK TO PEOPLE WHO ARE INSTITUTIONAL USERS -- I DON'T JUST MEAN FINANCE, BUT HEALTH CARE, CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY, INSURANCE, WHAT HAVE YOU, PEOPLE ARE USING IT.

THE CONSUMERS ARE USING IT EITHER FOR FUN OR JUST TO SHOCK EACH OTHER WITH WHAT THEY CAN DO WITH IT.

WHATEVER IT'S CALLED, YOU KNOW? WHERE YOU PUT YOUR FACE ON SOMEBODY ELSE AND RUN DOWN THE STREET? LISA:

WHAT YOU LOOK LIKE WHEN YOU ARE 130. [LAUGHTER] JOHN:

THERE YOU GO. THE WHOLE THING IS THAT IT'S NOT UNCOMMON. HAVEN'T I BEEN HERE BEFORE?

NOT UNCOMMON. HAVEN'T I BEEN HERE BEFORE?

THE WONDERFUL THING ABOUT THIS IS THAT IN A DIGITALIZED ENVIRONMENT, THE MARKET TENDS TO DISCOUNT BOTH GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS FAIRLY QUICKLY, GIVING US THIS EFFECT.

ONE DAY THE TRADE IS ON THE MARKET, THE NEXT DAY ITS LONG-TERM INVESTORS BUYING UP THE BABIES THAT GOT THROWN OUT WITH THE BATHWATER. THEN THEY VISIT THE MIDS, THE SMALL, IT'S A ROTATING MARKET THAT DISCOUNTS GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS MORE QUICKLY, BECAUSE DIGITAL NEWS TRAVELS FASTER AND IT'S QUICKER TO ANALYZE, DETERMINE. THE PLAY IS ON.

ANNMARIE: NVIDIA IS GETTING THE GREEN LIGHT TO SELL H 200 AND CHINA. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT DECISION BY THE ADMINISTRATION, DOES IT SAY TO YOU THAT 2026 TRADE TENSIONS WILL BE MORE QUIET THAN THIS YEAR? JOHN:

THAT'S A TOUGH ONE TO SAY. WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE ATTENTION, IT JUST SEEMS TO BE A PART OF THE WAY THINGS WORK WITH THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION. BUT LIKELY IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH ANY OTHER ADMINISTRATION, BECAUSE THAT'S

WITH THAT PRESIDENT XI OPERATES. THERE'S A BALANCE BETWEEN THE FIG LEAF AND THE AC S, YOU KNOW? -- AXE, YOU KNOW?

PEACE IS MORE PROFITABLE THAN BUILDING MORE MACHINES AND BATTLING EACH OTHER. LOOK AT WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO RUSSIA FINANCIALLY, THE COSTS OF WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN DOING TO UKRAINE.

ON THE OTHER HAND, IF YOU PLAY WITH YOUR FINANCIAL PARTNERS NICELY AND YOU COMPETE, YOU PRODUCE BETTER RESULTS FOR YOUR OWN PEOPLE AND YOU ALSO IMPROVE IT. FOR CHINA IT WOULD BE THE SUCCESS OF THE SILK ROAD, THE COMPETITION OCCURRING THERE THAT IS FELT BY OTHER EMERGING MARKETS.

IT'S JUST, YOU KNOW, THIS IS JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK.

THE TENSION? THEY OFTEN SAY THE MARKET DOESN'T LOVE -- LIKE UNCERTAINTY, BUT IT LOVES IT.

INTERVENING WITH LONG-TERM INVESTORS?

BABIES THROWN OUT WITH THE BATHWATER? A NEW VANITY PLATE.

LISA: MAYBE A BONFIRE OF THE VANITIES.

HOW MUCH DO YOU SEE THIS ROTATION AS DURABLE GIVEN THAT YOU STILL SEE AI STALL WARTS AS STILL HAVING A LOT OF STRENGTH.

ARE THEY GOING TO KEEP DELETING? OR IS THERE GOING TO BE A DURABLE SHIFT?

JOHN: THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION AND WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE 23, AND SOME DENY THIS, THERE'S BEEN A BROADENING OF THE RALLY WITH OTHERS SHARING THE STAGE WITH INFORMATION, TECHNOLOGY, STREAMING SERVICES, WHERE THE SEARCH ENGINES ARE, AS WELL AS THE OLD PHONE COMPANIES. WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT, YOU ARE IN

A SITUATION WHERE OTHER SECTORS LIKE FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, HEALTH CARE, UTILITIES, ARE BEGINNING TO FIND INTEREST FROM INVESTORS WITH GREATER DIVERSIFICATION IN THEIR PORTFOLIOS TO BENEFIT FROM THE OTHER NINE SECTORS THAT CAN BENEFIT FROM TECHNOLOGY. ANY COMPANY THAT WANTS TO KEEP A COMPETITIVE EDGE NEEDS AI. ANY COMPANY THAT WANTS TO GAIN

A COMPETITIVE EDGE NEEDS AI. ANY COMPANY THAT WANTS TO MAINTAIN THE PREMISE OF A VALUE NEEDS AI.

LOOKS LIKE INTO THE FUTURE. HERE WE GO, WHAT IS IT?

BACK TO THE FUTURE, HERE WE GO. LISA: I'M GOING TO HAVE THAT SOUNDTRACK IN MY HEAD ALL MORNING NOW. JOHN, THANK YOU.

LET'S GET YOU AN UPDATE ON STORIES ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING.

NO ONE HAS TO LISTEN TO ME SAYING IT. YAHAIRA?

YAHAIRA: DONALD TRUMP GAVE PERMISSION TO NVIDIA TO SHIP EACH 200 SHIPS TO CHINA IN EXCHANGE FOR SALES.

IT MEANS THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY COULD REGAIN BILLIONS IN LOST BUSINESS.

SAYING THAT THE SALES WOULD ONLY GO TO APPROVED CUSTOMERS AND CHIPMAKERS LIKE INTEL AND AMD WOULD BE ELIGIBLE.

PARAMOUNT'S GUIDE DANCE, LAUNCHING A HOSTILE TAKEOVER BID FOR WARNER BROS., THE MOON COMING JUST DAYS AFTER THE COMPANY AGREED TO A DEAL WITH NETFLIX.

THE OFFER STANDS AT $30 PER SHARE IN CASH COMPARED WITH THE NETFLIX CASH AND STOCK BID OF JUST $28 PER SHARE.

JARED KUSHNER IS PARTICIPATING IN THE BID, SAYING THAT HE'S NOT CLOSE TO PARAMOUNT OR NETFLIX.

PEPSICO, ANNOUNCING A SERIES OF OPERATIONAL CHANGES BACKED BY ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT, INCLUDING CUTTING NEARLY 20% OF THEIR U.S.

PRODUCT LINEUP, INVESTING AND MORE AFFORDABLE PRODUCTS, AND NORTH AMERICA LAYOFFS. ELLIOTT SAYS THE PLANS WILL DRIVE GREATER REVENUE AND PROFIT GROWTH. LISA? LISA:

THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE ACTIVIST INFLUENCE OVER PAPS -- PEPSI AND GOING TO AFFORDABILITY, WE ARE HEARING THAT INCREASINGLY FROM THE ADMINISTRATION AND EVERY COMPANY. ANNMARIE: THE CONSUMER IS DEMANDING IT

COMPANY. ANNMARIE: THE CONSUMER IS DEMANDING IT WHEN THEY GO SHOPPING. LISA: UP NEXT, WE TALKED ALL ABOUT THAT AFFORDABILITY.

>> MY ADMINISTRATION, MY PARTNERS IN CONGRESS, WE WORK TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THE COST-OF-LIVING TO MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN. AFFORDABILITY, THEY CALL IT.

AFFORDABLE AGAIN. AFFORDABILITY, THEY CALL IT.

A CON JOB. WE DID A GREAT JOB. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THE FAKE NEWS. LISA:

NEWS. LISA: WENDI SCHILLER JOINS US NEXT TO TALK ABOUT THAT.

FUTURES ARE FLUCTUATING AS MEETINGS TAKE PLACE IN WASHINGTON, D.C. WITH THE FOMC. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE

WASHINGTON, D.C. WITH THE FOMC. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ." ♪

." ♪ LISA: LOOKING FOR DIRECTION AHEAD OF A FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING, WHERE PEOPLE BROADLY EXPECT THERE TO BE A RATE CUT. THE REAL QUESTION IS WHAT THE

SIGNAL WILL BE GOING FORWARD. RIGHT NOW YOU HAVE A FLUCTUATION IN FUTURES AFTER WE SAW THE WINNING STREAK SNAPPED.

YIELDS ARE HEADING DOWN A LITTLE BIT AFTER THAT LOSING STREAK IN TERMS OF YIELDS HIGHER, SENDING THEM CLOSER TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE THE END OF SEPTEMBER AND A REAL QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH MORE THE FED CAN REALISTICALLY CUT RATES. FRONT FOCUS FOR MOST OF WALL

RATES. FRONT FOCUS FOR MOST OF WALL STREET IS THIS BOARD ROOM DRAMA THAT WILL TURN OUT TO BE THE BLOCKBUSTER OF THE YEAR, THE HOSTILE TAKEOVER PROPOSAL FROM PARAMOUNT OVER WARNER BROS. AFTER NETFLIX CAME OUT WITH AT $28 PER SHARE BID. PARAMOUNT CAME OUT AT $30 PER

SHARE. SOME OF THE PLAYERS BEHIND THIS

SHARE. SOME OF THE PLAYERS BEHIND THIS ARE REALLY EYEBROW RAISING IN TERMS OF CURRYING FAVOR WITH THE WHITE HOUSE. ANNMARIE:

ABSOLUTELY, INCLUDING INFINITY PARTNERS, LED BY JARED KUSHNER, WHO DETAILED REPORTS YESTERDAY THAT HE HASN'T SPOKE ABOUT IT AND THERE ARE ALSO THE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS OF SAUDI ARABIA, THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, THE QATARIS ARE INVOLVED IN THIS. WHAT'S GOING TO BE CRITICAL FOR THE GREEN LIGHT ARE THE REGULATORS.

WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO BE -- WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO SAY ABOUT THE CHARACTERS INVOLVED IN THE MARKET SHARE?

PARAMOUNT THINKS THAT BECAUSE NETFLIX ALREADY HAS SUCH A STRONG HOLD IN THE STREAMING SPHERE, THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO GET THE GREEN LIGHT. WHOEVER BUYS IT NEEDS TO MAKE A MOVIE ABOUT THE DEAL. LISA: PROBABLY THE NEXT BLOCKBUSTER, RIGHT? [LAUGHTER] LOOKING AT BREAKUP FEES,

RIGHT? [LAUGHTER] LOOKING AT BREAKUP FEES, SOMEONE'S GOING TO GET PAID QUITE A BIT OF MONEY.

GETTING PAID IS KEY AND FRONT FOCUS FOR A LOT OF AMERICANS AS AFFORDABILITY COMES FRONT AND CENTER THIS MORNING.

>> MY ADMINISTRATION, THE PARTNERS IN CONGRESS, WILL WORK TO LOWER THE COST-OF-LIVING END MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABILITY AGAIN. AFFORDABILITY, THEY CALL IT.

AGAIN. AFFORDABILITY, THEY CALL IT.

A CON JOB FROM DEMOCRATS. WE DID A GREAT JOB.

THE ONLY PROBLEM, FAKE NEWS. FAKE NARRATIVE.

DEMOCRATS TALK ABOUT IT. AFFORDABILITY.

THEY SAY THE WORD, IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING.

JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING IS DOWN. THE WHOLE WORD, AFFORDABILITY, THAT'S A HOAX. FROM DEMOCRATS. LISA:

TRUNK TRAVELING TO PROMOTE HIS ECONOMIC AGENDA AS MORE POLLS SHOW AFFORDABILITY AS THE DOMINANT CONCERN FOR MOST AMERICANS. TYLER, GREAT TO SEE YOU.

AMERICANS. TYLER, GREAT TO SEE YOU.

WHAT DO WE EXPECT TO HEAR FROM THE PRESIDENT TODAY? TAYLOR:

THIS MARKS THE BIG DOMESTIC POLICY SPEECH FROM THE PRESIDENT FOCUSED ON THE COSTS OF LIVING AFTER REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS LAST MONTH WE AFFORDABILITY FRONT AND CENTER.

TRUMP REALLY CAMPAIGN ON THE ISSUE OF THE ECONOMY, IT IS WHAT HELPED TO PROPEL HIM TO THE WHITE HOUSE, BUT RECENT POLLING DATA INCLUDING IMPROVE HER SCENT -- INCLUDING CONSUMER SENTIMENT, SHOWS RECORD LOWS. OUR OWN HARRIS POLL IN OCTOBER SHOWS 55% OF THE AMERICANS CURRENTLY EMPLOYED ARE CONCERNED ABOUT LOSING THEIR JOB IN THE NEXT YEAR.

THE PRESIDENT IS GOING TO TOUT THOSE POLICIES WE HAVE SEEN HIM ROLL OUT IN THE LAST MONTH SINCE ELECTION DAY, INCLUDING THE INVESTIGATION LAUNCHED OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN IT CAME TO THE FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN. TRUMP SIGNING THAT EXECUTIVE ORDER DIRECTING THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE TO LOOK INTO A LEGEND PRICE GOUGING AND UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES, YESTERDAY

RULING OUT AID FOR FARMERS AND WE ARE EXPECTING HIM TO TALK ABOUT THE POLICIES HE'S PUTTING FORTH THAT HAVE YET TO BE IMPLEMENTED. WE HAVE COURSE KNOW THAT THERE

IMPLEMENTED. WE HAVE COURSE KNOW THAT THERE DOES FACE -- THAT THERE IS PUSHBACK FROM CONGRESS.

ANOTHER ISSUE THAT COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS IS THE CURRENT DEBATE OVER THE PATH FORWARD WHEN IT COMES TO HEALTH CARE AS WE COME UP ON THE END OF THE YEAR WHEN THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT PREMIUM ACT SUBSIDIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE.

THERE'S A BIG DEBATE, BUT NOT REALLY ACTION ON CAPITOL HILL ON HOW TO ADDRESS WHAT COULD BE A STEEP HIKE IN PRICES FOR AMERICANS IF WE GO OVER THAT CLIFF.

EXPECT MORE OF THIS FROM THE PRESIDENT, THAT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, THAT HE IS ABOUT TO GO ON A BIG DOMESTIC POLICY PUSH AROUND THE COUNTRY. LISA:

ONE OF THOSE BIG PUSHES MIGHT INVOLVE THIS REPORTING FROM POLITICO THIS MORNING WHERE TRUMP MIGHT MAKE TARIFF CHANGES TO LOWER PRICES. WENDI SCHILLER JOINS US WITH MORE. THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

MORE. THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

I WANT YOUR TAKE ON THIS FOCUS ON AFFORDABILITY AND IF YOU THINK IT WILL RESONATE, GIVEN THE PROPOSALS THAT ARE ON DECK.

WENDI: TRUMP REALIZES HE'S LOSING A BIT OF HIS GRIP ON THE HOUSE IN TERMS OF HIS POWER OVER THE GOP.

HE IS STILL THE PLAYER IN THE PRIMARY, ANOTHER SEVEN MONTHS FOR REPUBLICANS TO FACE OTHER CHALLENGES, WHERE HE GETS HIS LEVERAGE, BUT YOU CAN SENSE THAT THE HOUSE, THE GOP, REALLY WORRIED THAT AFFORDABILITY, ECONOMY, INFLATION, PRICES, WILL COSTS THEM CONTROL IN THE HOUSE AND EVEN THE SENATE.

THAT'S A REAL OVERLAYING ISSUE HERE.

WHAT DO YOU DO, SYMBOLICALLY, AS PRESIDENT?

ALL PRESIDENTS HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON PRICES AND INFLATION. WHAT DO YOU DO THAT REASSURES

AND INFLATION. WHAT DO YOU DO THAT REASSURES CONGRESS? IF HE IN FACT LOSES HIS GRIP ON

CONGRESS? IF HE IN FACT LOSES HIS GRIP ON THE HOUSE, HE REALLY THEN ENTERS UNCHARTED TERRITORY IN TERMS OF POWER TO GET ANYTHING DONE. SYMBOLIC, OF COURSE.

GOING ON A TOUR DOMESTICALLY. HE'S ALSO FLOATING TARIFF DIVIDEND CHECKS. THINK WE WILL SEE THAT?

DIVIDEND CHECKS. THINK WE WILL SEE THAT?

IT BROUGHT TO MIND STIMULUS CHECKS DURING COVID AND WE HAD MULTIPLE -- MULTIPLE FROM TRUMP AND BIDEN AND MUCH OF THAT COMMENTARY WAS THOUGHT TO INCREASE INFLATION.

IN OTHER WORDS, NOT GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY AND MAKING THINGS MORE EXPENSIVE. I'M NOT SURE THAT IS GOING TO

MORE EXPENSIVE. I'M NOT SURE THAT IS GOING TO FLY WITH CONSUMERS. REMEMBER THAT.

REMEMBER, THE BASE OF THE PARTY VOTED FOR TRUMP AND THINKS THAT GOVERNMENT GIVES AWAY TOO MUCH MONEY TO BEGIN WITH.

DO YOU GET THESE DEFICIT HAWKS IN THE HOUSE TO GIVE AWAY MORE MONEY? MAKING THAT CONNECTION BETWEEN

MONEY? MAKING THAT CONNECTION BETWEEN THE REVENUES ON THE TARIFFS, OUR LARGE DEFICIT, THE NATIONAL DEBT, AND GIVING AWAY GOVERNMENT MONEY?

SEEMS LIKE A PACKAGE THAT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO SELL TO CONSERVATIVES IN THE HOUSE AND ALSO TO THEIR CONSTITUENTS.

ANNMARIE: THERE IS ALSO A LOT OF TALK THAT THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF REPUBLICANS RETIRING FROM CONGRESS. HOW DIFFICULT IS THAT GOING TO

CONGRESS. HOW DIFFICULT IS THAT GOING TO BE AS THE PRESIDENT TRIES TO TOUT THIS AFFORDABILITY ECONOMY IS WORKING AHEAD OF MIDTERMS WHEN A LOT OF REPUBLICANS SEEM TO WANT TO GET OFF THE SHIP?

WENDY: RIGHT, A RECORD NUMBER OF REPUBLICANS ARE RETIRING GOING INTO THIS MIDTERM. NOT A RECORD NUMBER OVERALL.

I'M WATCHING TO SEE IF EVEN MORE ARE GOING TO WALK OUT THE DOOR. IF THEY CANNOT GET ANY KIND OF

DOOR. IF THEY CANNOT GET ANY KIND OF COMPROMISE ON EXTENDING SUBSIDIES, AND THE PRESIDENT HAS INDICATED THAT IT DEPENDS ON THE DAY, HE WILL SIGN IT.

IF HE GETS AN EXTENSION, HE WILL PROBABLY SIGN IT.

IF THEY DON'T DO THAT, THEY HAVE TO GO HOME AND FACE CONSTITUENTS WHO ARE PAYING A LOT MORE MONEY FOR HEALTH CARE AND DO THEY WANT TO FACE THAT ONSLAUGHT?

IF THEY FAIL TO GET A DEAL, MY INSTINCT IS THAT MORE REPUBLICANS WOULD WALK OUT THE DOOR AND MAKE IT HARDER FOR SPEAKER JOHNSON. MANY, LIKE MARJORIE TAYLOR

SPEAKER JOHNSON. MANY, LIKE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE, LEAVING ON THE OUTSIDE WHERE YOU CAN DO NOTHING BUT CRITICIZE THE INSIDE, THE PRESSURE RAMPS UP ON THE REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE, MAKING IT HARDER FOR THE PRESIDENT. FOREIGN SUBSIDIES IN THAT FIRST

PRESIDENT. FOREIGN SUBSIDIES IN THAT FIRST TERM, FOR FARMERS, TARIFFS, NOW LOOKING AT $12 MILLION, IT'S AN UNNECESSARY EXPENSE, YOU COULD ARGUE, BECAUSE OF THE TRUMP TARIFF POLICY. LISA: AND THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO

TARIFF POLICY. LISA: AND THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALTOGETHER.

WENDI SCHILLER, THANK YOU SO MUCH.

PICKING UP ON THAT POLITICO INTERVIEW WITH THE PRESIDENT, A LOT OF INFORMATION THERE IN TERMS OF HIS AGENDA GOING FORWARD, WHAT HE THINKS ABOUT AFFORDABILITY, UKRAINE, THE FEDERAL RESERVE, AND THE POTENTIAL PICKY SEEMS TO HAVE SELECTED. ANNMARIE:

SELECTED. ANNMARIE: HE SAYS HE HASN'T, BUT THEN HE CALLED THE FRONT RUNNER A POTENTIAL PICK, SAYING THAT HE THINKS THAT JAY POWELL ISN'T A SMART PERSON AND DOESN'T LIKE TRUMP.

THE REASON IS BECAUSE "I HIT HIM HARD BECAUSE HE'S DOING A BAD JOB ON INTEREST RATES." HE DIDN'T GIVE A NAME.

HE KEPT TALKING ABOUT FIGHTING INTEREST RATES, BUT HE DIDN'T GIVE A NAME ON WHO THAT PERSON IS, IN HIS MIND, THAT HE HAS MADE THE DECISION ON.

LISA: MEANWHILE, WALL STREET WITH A SHORT ATTENTION SPAN AND SHIFTING OVER TO AI TRAUMA.

COMING UP, WE SPEAK TO MARK BERGEN AS NVIDIA GETS THAT WE LIKE TO SELL CHIPS IN CHINA WITH DANI BURGER AND MORNING MOVERS. NVIDIA SHARES, RISING AFTER

MOVERS. NVIDIA SHARES, RISING AFTER THAT APPROVAL. BASICALLY UNCHANGED.

THAT APPROVAL. BASICALLY UNCHANGED.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ." ♪

LISA: LOOKING FOR DIRECTION AFTER STABBING A WINNING STREAK. WE LOOKING AT MARKETS GRAPPLING WITH THE CONCEPT THAT YES, THE FED WILL CUT RATES IN THE MEETING THAT BEGINS TODAY. NO, THEY WILL NOT CONTINUE

AGGRESSIVELY NEXT YEAR. JUST TWO RATE CUTS PRICED IN FOR THE ENTIRETY OF 2026.

A BIT OF A REPRIEVE AFTER A VIOLENT SELLOFF.

THE FRONT END IS MEANDERING.

IT'S BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 360.58 ON THE -- 3.6058% ON THE TAHE TWO-YEAR.

TAKE A LOOK AT HOME DEPOT SHARES.

THOSE ARE LOWER BY ABOUT 1.4%.

HOME GOODS RETAILER OFFERING SOME CAUTIOUS PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR NEXT YEAR WITHOUT SEEING A REVIVAL IN THE HOUSING MARKET. ANNMARIE: EVEN THOUGH SOME MORTGAGE RATES

MARKET. ANNMARIE: EVEN THOUGH SOME MORTGAGE RATES ARE LOWER, THEY ARE SEEING LESS FAMILIES ABLE TO GET UP THE HOUSING LADDER. THEY HAVE A HOME OF THEY WANT

HOUSING LADDER. THEY HAVE A HOME OF THEY WANT TO REFURBISH AND DO WORK ON CONSTRUCTION, THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO DO THAT RIGHT NOW BECAUSE OF THE ECONOMY.

THEY COMES BACK TO THIS IDEA OF AFFORDABILITY.

THEY EXPECT SALES GROWTH TO BE FLAT TO UP TO 2% FOR THE YEAR.

WE WOULD NEED TO SEE THE HOUSING MARKET TURN. LISA:

WHICH IS WHY AFTER 10% LOSSES THIS YEAR YOU ARE SEEING ADDITIONAL LOSSES IN THE PREMARKET TRADE.

HERE ARE THE MORNING MOVERS WITH DANI BURGER. DANI:

STARTING WITH NVIDIA AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP POSTED HE WILL ALLOW THE SALE OF H200 SHIPS TO CHINA -- CHIPS TO CHINA.

MAYBE SOME QUESTIONS BEING ASKED AND HOW THIS WILL WORK.

THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT SAID IT WOULD WORK VIA THE FORM OF A 25% TARIFF. THAT IS THIS YEAR THE U.S.

25% TARIFF. THAT IS THIS YEAR THE U.S.

WANTS. NVIDIA LITTLE CHANGED AFTER MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. ONCE YOU'RE MOVING TO THE UPSIDE IS ARIES. WE GET THE RECONSTITUTION OF THE S&P 500 AND WHO IS BEING ADDED AND SUBTRACTED.

IT IS BEING ADDED SO IT IS UP 8.2%.

TELL ANOVA IS BEING BOOTED OUT.

YOU MENTIONED HOME DEPOT GIVING A CAUTIOUS OUTLOOK.

WE HAD A CAUTIOUS OUTLOOK FROM TOLL BROTHERS.

TOLL BROTHERS IS ONE OF THE RARE HOMEBUILDERS THAT IS OUTPERFORMING AS A LUXURY CUSTOMER BASE.

THE HOMES ARE ABOUT $1 MILLION IN AVERAGE.

THE CEO SAYING THEY ARE CONFIDENT BUT DID CITE THEY HAVE SOFTNESS IN MANY MARKETS. SHARES ARE OFF BY FOUR .5% IN

THE PREMARKET. NOTE THAT 4.5% IN THE PREMARKET.

LISA: ON THE RADAR, PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE LAUNCHING A STUNNING HOSTILE TAKEOVER FOR WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY.

THE BID OF $30 A SHARE COMES DAYS AFTER NETFLIX AGREED TO BY WARNER BROS. IN A CASH AND STOCK DEAL JUST

WARNER BROS. IN A CASH AND STOCK DEAL JUST HUNDRED $20 PER SHARE. NOT EXACTLY -- JUST UNDER $28 PER SHARE. NOT EXACTLY APPLES TO APPLES

PER SHARE. NOT EXACTLY APPLES TO APPLES BUT IT DOES INCLUDE SOME OF THE PROPERTIES THAT INCLUDE THE NEWS AND SPORTS VERSUS THE $30 ALL CASH OFFER. ANNMARIE:

NETFLIX WAS JUST GOING FOR THE STUDIO AND THE CATALOG.

PARAMOUNT WANTS EVERYTHING, CNN, TNT, SOME OF THE LIVE AUDIENCE. IT IS HARD TO DECIPHER EXACTLY

AUDIENCE. IT IS HARD TO DECIPHER EXACTLY WHAT DEAL -- IT IS DIFFICULT. IT IS NOT APPLES TO APPLES.

IT COMES DOWN TO HOW WARNER BROS.

DECIDES DO THEY WANT TO SPIN OFF THE NEWS BEFORE THEY SELL REMAINING ENTITIES OR WITH A RATHER CELL AS A WHOLE -- SELL AS A WHOLE. THE TEXT MESSAGE, THE VISITS TO THE BEVERLY HILLS HOUSE, IT SEEMS LIKE THEY FELT LIKE THEY WERE GETTING GHOSTED. THAT IS THE WORD THE WALL STREET JOURNAL USED. THE ELLISON FAMILY FOR LIKE THEY WERE GETTING GHOSTED AND IT SEEMS LIKE THE WARNER BROS.

C-SUITE ALREADY DECIDED THEY WERE GOING TO NETFLIX. LISA:

DAVID ELLISON DOES NOT LIKE BEING GHOSTED.

HE IS SAYING WE ARE GOING TO GET REGULATORY APPROVAL.

IT IS ALL ABOUT REGULATORY APPROVAL.

THE EU LAUNCHING AN ANTITRUST INVESTIGATION AGAINST GOOGLE FOR FAVORING ITS OWN AI TOOLS AND FAILING TO COMPENSATE CONTENT CREATORS FOR MATERIALS USED IN ITS AI RESULTS.

THIS MIGHT BE THE KEY BETWEEN ISSUES BETWEEN THE U.S.

AND EUROPE. IT HAS TO DO WITH REGULATING U.S. TECH. HOW MUCH IS THIS STICKING A

U.S. TECH. HOW MUCH IS THIS STICKING A FINGER IN THE EYE OF SOME U.S. NEGOTIATORS? ANNMARIE:

THE PRESIDENT SAID IT WAS DISCRIMINATORY.

THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF SHARP RHETORIC FROM THIS ADMINISTRATION WHEN IT COMES TO THE EUROPEAN UNION, THEIR REGULATION OF A LOT OF THESE TECH COMPANIES.

WHICH IS WHY THE SECOND TRUMP WON, YOU SAW ALL THESE COMPANIES GOING DOWN TO MAR-A-LAGO.

WE ARE GETTING NEWS FROM THE EU COMMISSION SAYING THEY DID GIVE THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION ABOUT THE GOOGLE

THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION ABOUT THE GOOGLE ANTITRUST PROBE. TRYING TO GET AHEAD OF IT BUT

ANTITRUST PROBE. TRYING TO GET AHEAD OF IT BUT THIS IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER BIG POINT OF FRICTION BETWEEN BRUSSELS AND WASHINGTON. LISA: AN ONGOING NEGOTIATION.

TALKING ABOUT NEGOTIATIONS, PRESIDENT TRUMP GRANTING NVIDIA PERMISSION TO SHIP ITS H200 CHIPS TO CHINA FOR A 25% PROFIT CUT. IT IS APPLICABLE TO OTHER CHIPMAKERS, INCLUDING INTEL AND

CUT. IT IS APPLICABLE TO OTHER CHIPMAKERS, INCLUDING INTEL AND AMD. JOINING US FOR AND IS

AMD. JOINING US FOR AND IS BLOOMBERG'S MARK BERGEN. HOW BIG OF A SURPRISE WAS THIS GIVEN IT IS A REVERSAL AND COMES OVER SOME OF THE PUSHBACK FROM PEOPLE WITHIN PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADMINISTRATION? MARK:

IT'S A REVERSAL. IT IS SOMETHING THAT JENSEN HUANG HAS BEEN ARGUING FOR FOR A LONG TIME.

MAKING THE ARGUMENT THE RESTRICTION BASICALLY GIVES CHINESE COMPANIES, PARTICULARLY HUAWEI, A BIG EDGE.

THERE ARE THOSE THAT HAVE ARGUED FOR THIS USING TERMS LIKE WANTING TO GET CHINA ADDICTED TO AMERICAN CHIPS AND AI, SOMETHING THE U.S. CAN HAVE CONTROL OVER. LISA:

DO WE HAVE A SENSE OF WHETHER CHINA WILL SIGN OFF ON SOME OF THEIR BIG TECH COMPANIES USING NVIDIA CHIPS? MARK:

THAT'S A BIG QUESTION AND AN OUTSTANDING ONE.

THERE WAS REPORTING THIS MORNING THAT BEIJING WILL RESTRICT THAT. WE HAVE SEEN RESTRICTIONS ON

RESTRICT THAT. WE HAVE SEEN RESTRICTIONS ON THE H20, THE LESS POWERFUL VERSION THAT HAS BEEN SOLD INTO CHINA. THAT IS THE ULTIMATE QUESTION.

CHINA. THAT IS THE ULTIMATE QUESTION.

THE CONCERN FROM CHINESE SIDE IS THAT THEY WANT TO BUILD UP THEIR OWN INDUSTRY. THERE IS HUAWEI AND SEVERAL OTHER CHIP COMPETITORS TRY TO CATCH UP TO NVIDIA.

ONE WAY TO DO THAT IS TO HAVE THESE LARGE CHINESE TECH COMPANIES AND STARTUPS BUYING THEIR STUFF. ANNMARIE:

TALK ABOUT HOW THIS WILL ACTUALLY WORK.

IN THIS EXCHANGE FOR A 25% TARIFF. MARK: YEAH.

I IMAGINE THAT'S THE RESPONSE INSIDE NVIDIA RIGHT NOW.

TRYING TO MAKE SENSE OF THE ACTUAL DETAILS.

THE DEVIL IS IN THEM, OF COURSE. THE PRIOR AGREEMENT HAD A 15% AND NO WE HAVE 25%. I IMAGINE THERE IS A LOT OF BACK-AND-FORTH AND LAWYERS INVOLVED.

THIS IS SOMETHING WHERE THE COMPANY -- CHINA IS A BIG MARKET AND THE SIGNALING AND MESSAGING IS THAT IT'S A PLACE THEY WANT TO BE IN. ANNMARIE:

YOU ARE SAYING THAT FOR NVIDIA IT STILL MAKES SENSE.

WHAT MONEY AND ACCESS WILL TO GET AND CHINA WITH THE H200 IF CHINA GIVES THE GREEN LIGHT TO BUY? MARK:

THESE ARE OVER A YEAR OLD NOW BUT THEY ARE ABOUT 10 TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN THE NVIDIA CHIPS CHINA HAS ACCESS TO NOW.

THERE IS AN EXPECTATION THAT THERE IS THE MAJOR AI TO COMPANIES LIKE ALIBABA AND TENCENT AND THEN DEEPSEEK AND A WAVE OF COMPANIES THAT HAVE COME OUT OF NOWHERE.

DEVELOPING THESE MODELS, MANY OPEN SOURCE, THAT ARE AS COMPETITIVE AS THOSE COMING OUT OF SILICON VALLEY.

THE ARGUMENT FROM THE HAWKS IN D.C.'S YOU ARE BASICALLY HANDING THEM THESE INCREDIBLY POWERFUL TOOLS TO LET CHINA CONTINUE TO GO AHEAD. THERE ARE LOTS OF QUESTIONS AROUND THE SALES CHANNEL BUT THE BIG ONE IS, WHAT BEIJING IS GOING TO ALLOW. LISA:

MARK BERGEN , THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

THERE'S A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IS OUT OF THE BAG.

THERE HAVE BEEN CHIPS THAT HAVE BEEN SMUGGLED TO CHINA ANYWAY.

THERE WAS A STORY ABOUT THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT DETAINING TWO INDIVIDUALS FOR ALLEGEDLY SMUGGLING H200 CHIPS TO CHINA IN THE PRIOR YEAR, WHICH UNDERPINS QUESTIONS AROUND DEEPSEEK. ANNMARIE: THERE ARE TWO STORIES.

DEEPSEEK. ANNMARIE: THERE ARE TWO STORIES.

ONE, THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT GOING UP TO THESE INDIVIDUALS AT THE SAME TIME THE PRESIDENT IS RECALIBRATING HIS POLICY ON WHAT SHOULD BE ACCEPTABLE TO CHINA.

IT FEELS LIKE THEY ARE PUTTING ECONOMIC CONCERNS -- PUTTING TRADE CONCERNS AND MAKING SURE THEY HAVE A GOOD TRADING RELATIONSHIP WITH XI JINPING AHEAD OF NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS. THE FINANCIAL TIMES, THE

CONCERNS. THE FINANCIAL TIMES, THE BIGGEST QUESTION THIS MORNING, WILL CHINA EVEN ALLOW IT?

THEY MAY ALLOW SOME OF IT BUT IT WILL NOT BE CARTE BLANCHE ALLOWANCE OF NVIDIA BACK INTO CHINA. LISA:

WHICH IS WHY YOU ARE NOT SEEING A BIGGER SHARE POP.

THEY DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SALES TO CHINA AND THEIR FORECAST.

NVIDIA SEEING THE BIGGEST GAINS. INTEL NOT SO MUCH.

THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS AFFECTED.

TODAY WE ARE GETTING A HOST OF INVESTOR DAYS.

HOME DEPOT WITH A TEPID OUTLOOK FOR NEXT YEAR.

THE QUESTION ON THE REVIVAL OF THE HOUSING MARKET.

CVS TALKING ABOUT HOW IT'S 20 26 REVENUE WILL BE SHORT OF SOME WALL STREET ESTIMATES. HI LENNY CONCERN AROUND THE CONSUMER. I WANT TO POINT TO THIS ONE

CONSUMER. I WANT TO POINT TO THIS ONE MORE TIME. CVS SEEING THE LOW END OF AN

MORE TIME. CVS SEEING THE LOW END OF AN ADJUSTED EPS RANGE FROM SEVEN TO 720. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AFFORDABILITY AND TALKING ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCELERATION THERE IS WITH CONSUMERS THAT ARE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM. ANNMARIE:

WE HEAR THIS FROM THE RETAILERS. IT IS MUCH HARDER.

WHAT YOU HEAR IS THAT WHEN YOU SEE THE LIKES OF DOLLAR GENERAL, DOLLAR TREE, THEY ARE SEEING MORE CONSUMERS, AND TRY TO FIND DEALS FROM THE TOP END.

CHOICE FULL, IT'S A C-SUITE WORD -- THE WALL STREET IS USING "CRANKY" -- THEY ARE LOOKING FOR BARGAINS WHICH IS WHAT PEOPLE ARE UNSURE WHAT AT 2026 WILL BE. CONSUMERS ARE SPENDING THAT MONEY TODAY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BLACK FRIDAY AND CYBER MONDAY SALES. LISA: WE ARE FOCUSING ON HOW THAT IS

MONDAY SALES. LISA: WE ARE FOCUSING ON HOW THAT IS AFFECTING THE DIFFERENT SECTORS. LET'S GET AN UPDATE ON STORIES ELSEWHERE WITH YAHAIRA. YAHAIRA: PRESIDENT TRUMP'S WARNING HE COULD IMPOSE NEW TARIFFS ON CANADIAN FERTILIZER AND INDIAN RICE. HE ISSUED THE THREAT AT A WHITE

RICE. HE ISSUED THE THREAT AT A WHITE HOUSE EVENT WHERE HE ANNOUNCED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF ASSISTANCE FOR FARMERS. THE PRESIDENT SAID THE U.S.

DOES NOT NEED CANADIAN FERTILIZER BUT CANADA IS AMERICA'S BIGGEST SUPPLIER OF POTASH.

AS FOR RICE, AND HE IS THE WORLD'S BIGGEST EXPORTER BUT THE U.S. BUYS MOST OF ITS RISE FROM

THE U.S. BUYS MOST OF ITS RISE FROM THAILAND. THE U.S.

THAILAND. THE U.S.

SUPREME COURT APPEARS POISED TO ALLOW PRESIDENT TRUMP TO FIRE A LEADER OF THE FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION.

A DECISION THAT COULD OVERTURN A 90-YEAR-OLD PRESIDENT -- PRECI DENT.

MANY OF THE HIGH COURT'S CONSERVATIVE JUSTICES EXPRESSING SUPPORT FOR AN IDEA THAT HOLD UP THE CONSTITUTION AND GIVES THE PRESIDENT BROAD AUTHORITY TO FIRE OFFICIALS.

AS YOU WERE JUST DISCUSSING, HOME DEPOT PROVIDING A CAUTIOUS PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT YEAR.

THE HOME-IMPROVEMENT RETAILER FORECASTING COMPARABLE SALES GROWTH BELOW ESTIMATES CITING THE CHALLENGING U.S.

HOUSING MARKET. HOME DEPOT IS READY FOR A POTENTIAL REBOUND, STATING IT COULD SEE 4% TO 5% GROWTH IN THE MARKET RECOVERY SCENARIO. THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.

LISA: OF NEXT COME THE SUPER COURT WEIGHING IN ON PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS.

>> WE ARE MAKING A LOT OF MONEY FROM COUNTRIES THAT TOOK ADVANTAGE OF US FOR YEARS. OUR DEFICITS ARE WAY DOWN BECAUSE OF TARIFFS.

THIS DECISION FROM THE SUPREME COURT IS A VERY IMPORTANT THING.

LISA: NEXT WE WILL TALK WITH GENE SEROKA. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE

SEROKA. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ." ♪

." ♪ LISA: IT IS ALL GOING TO BE ABOUT THE FED STARTING TODAY HEADING INTO TOMORROW. THE FED DOES MEET IN WASHINGTON, D.C. A 95% CHANCE THEY WILL CUT

WASHINGTON, D.C. A 95% CHANCE THEY WILL CUT RATES. HOW DID THEY MESSAGE GOING

RATES. HOW DID THEY MESSAGE GOING FORWARD GIVEN THE FACT JAY POWELL IS A LAME-DUCK FED CHAIR?

S&P FUTURES TRYING TO CLAW OUT OF YESTERDAY'S LOSSES COME UP ABOUT ONE -- UP ABOUT .1%.

UNDER SURVEILLANCE THIS MORNING, THE SUPREME COURT WEIGHING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS.

>> WE ARE MAKING A LOT OF MONEY FROM COUNTRIES THAT TOOK ADVANTAGE OF US FOR YEARS. OUR DEFICITS ARE WAY DOWN BECAUSE OF TARIFFS. WE HAVE A BIG DECISION.

HOPEFULLY WE WILL GET THE RIGHT DECISION.

IT IS SUCH A BIG THING. THE DECISION OF THE SUPREME COURT IS A VERY IMPORTANT THING. LISA: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNALING CANADA, MEXICO AND INDIA COULD GET HIT WITH A FRESH ROUND OF LEVEES WITH A SUPREME COURT RULING ON HIS GLOBAL TARIFFS FOR THE END OF THE YEAR. GENE SEROKA OF THE PORT OF LOS

ANGELES WRITING, "IF THERE IS LESS TARIFFS AND TRADE UNCERTAINTY, THAT WILL STABILIZE SUPPLY CHAIN."

GENE SEROKA, WONDERFUL TO SEE YOU.

I WANT TO START ON HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT YOU HAVE SEEN TOO TRADE BASED ON SOME OF THE TARIFF UNCERTAINTY YOUR TODAY.

GENE: IT'S BEEN A ROLLER COASTER OF A YEAR. IMPORTERS SLAMMED ON THE BRAKES.

YEAR. IMPORTERS SLAMMED ON THE BRAKES.

WHEN THE POLICY WAS SOFTENED AND DEADLINES EXTENDED, WE SAW A SURGEON CARGO -- SURGE IN CARGO.

EXPORTS HAVE REALLY LAGGED BEHIND BECAUSE A RETALIATORY TARIFFS. ASIAN COUNTRIES ARE CUTTING

TARIFFS. ASIAN COUNTRIES ARE CUTTING DEALS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES. LISA: THE U.S.

CANNOT KICK ITS IMPORTING HABIT BUT ITS EXPORTS SUFFERED AS A RESULT OF RETALIATION. HAS THE IMPORTING MIXED CHANGED FOR THE U.S. IN TERMS OF WHETHER COUNTRIES ARE THAT ARE PROVIDING SOME OF THOSE IMPORTS? GENE:

IT CERTAINLY HAS. BACK IN 2018 WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF TARIFFS, 16% OF OUR BUSINESS WITH CHINA.

TODAY IT IS 40% AND DROPPING. WE HAVE PICKED UP A LOT OF TRADE FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA. ANNMARIE:

ISN'T CHINA JUST USING THIS COUNTRIES TO SEND THE GOODS TO THE UNITED STATES TRANSSHIPMENT? GENE:

I WAS IN CHINA TWICE IN THE LAST MONTH.

IN THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE 15 FIVE-YEAR PLAN BY THE CHINESE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, THEY SAID SPECIFICALLY THEY ARE JUST EXPORTING PRODUCTS, THEY ARE EXPORTING MANUFACTURING EXPERTISE TO OTHER COUNTRIES. THEY ARE INVESTING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA FACTORIES AND SUPPLY CHAINS.

AS FAR AS TRANSSHIPMENT, THE SHIRT I'M WEARING, THE BUTTON POCKETS GO FROM CHINA TO VIETNAM TO MAKE A FULL SHIRT AND THEN SHE THEY SHIP IT HERE TO THE RETAIL SOURCE.

IT IS NUANCED AND A LITTLE WONKY WHEN IT COMES TO OUR BUSINESS. IT IS NOT NECESSARILY TRANSSHIPPING TO AVOID TARIFFS

BUSINESS. IT IS NOT NECESSARILY TRANSSHIPPING TO AVOID TARIFFS OF ONE COUNTRY. ANNMARIE: YOU TALKED ABOUT 2025 AS A ROLLER COASTER. HOW MUCH HINGES ON THE SUPREME

ROLLER COASTER. HOW MUCH HINGES ON THE SUPREME COURT DECIDING? GENE: THAT'S A BIG DEAL BUT WHAT

COURT DECIDING? GENE: THAT'S A BIG DEAL BUT WHAT HAPPENS, DO WE SEE A REFUND OF THIS MONEY FROM THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT? COSTCO HAS STEPPED INTO THE

DEPARTMENT? COSTCO HAS STEPPED INTO THE LITIGATION ARENA. LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

LITIGATION ARENA. LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

THERE ARE OTHER COMPANIES THEY FOLLOW AND DIFFERENT SECTORS OUTSIDE OF TRADITIONAL BIG BOX RETAIL.

IF WE SEE A RELATIVELY CALM FUTURE OVER THE NEXT TWO QUARTERS, MAYBE SOME ARE FOCUSED ON MIDTERM ELECTIONS, THAT COULD GIVE SOME CERTAINTY TO THE SUPPLY CHAIN.

I KNOW THE GROUND RULES, I KNOW THE PRICES.

LET'S GET BACK TO WORK. INSTEAD OF ALL THIS SPECULATION OF WHAT COULD BE. LISA: HOW MUCH DOES THE UNCERTAINTY FAVOR THE LARGEST COMPANIES OVER AND ABOVE SOME OF THE SMALLER COMPANIES THAT ARE HAVING A HARDER TIME NAVIGATING THROUGH IT? GENE: THERE WAS A DISTINCT ADVANTAGE

THROUGH IT? GENE: THERE WAS A DISTINCT ADVANTAGE FOR THOSE WHO DECIDED TO FRONTLOAD INVENTORY AND TRY TO MITIGATE THE PRESUMPTION OF TARIFFS.

WHEN THEY WENT IN PLACE WITH ALL THE UPS AND DOWNS OF DIFFERENT ANNOUNCEMENTS. MORE THAN HALF OF OUR IMPORTERS

DIFFERENT ANNOUNCEMENTS. MORE THAN HALF OF OUR IMPORTERS AT THE PORT OF LOS ANGELES ARE SMALL TO MIDDLE SIZE BUSINESSES.

THEY TELL ME DIRECTLY IN CONVERSATIONS THEY STRUGGLE TO PASS ON THOSE INCREASED COSTS FOR FEAR OF NOT BEING ABLE TO COMPETE WITH THE LARGER COMPANIES.

AUTO PARTS COMPANIES TRYING TO ABSORB THOSE COSTS AS THEY SEND PRODUCT TO THE BIG THREE MANUFACTURING FACILITIES BECAUSE THE ALTERNATIVE IS POTENTIALLY SHUTTING DOWN A MANUFACTURING LINE WHICH COULD BE $2 MILLION TO $4 BILLION PER HOUR. LISA: YOU LOOK AT SMALL BUSINESS

HOUR. LISA: YOU LOOK AT SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND IT HAS NOT RECOVERED THE WAY THE STOCK MARKET HAS, IS THERE SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON THAT IS NOT JUST WITH RESPECT TO A CONSUMER THAT IS FLAGGING BUT A NONCOMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE FOR SOME OF THE COMPANIES THEY DON'T HAVE THE SUPPLY CHAIN HEFT AND THE DATE OF THE LARGER

ONES DO? GENE: A NUMBER OF SMALL COMPANIES IN

ONES DO? GENE: A NUMBER OF SMALL COMPANIES IN OUR CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TELL ME I BUY A LOT OF SMALL PA PARCELS FROM ASIA AND CHINA TO PUT IN MY STORE FRONT PUT IN A BOUTIQUE SHOP. WITH THE DE MINIMIS EXEMPTION

BOUTIQUE SHOP. WITH THE DE MINIMIS EXEMPTION REMOVED THEIR PRICES HAVE SKYROCKETED IN THOSE FOLKS ARE IN REAL TROUBLE WHEN IT COMES TO KEEPING INVENTORY AT DECENT PRICES. ANNMARIE:

PRICES. ANNMARIE: YOU ARE SEEING NOT SO MUCH A STRUGGLING CONSUMER BUT A STRUGGLING SMALL BUSINESS SECTOR? GENE: I DO.

THEY ARE TRYING TO DANCE RENT ALL THIS POLICY CHANGE AS BEST THEY CAN. THEY ARE WORKING HARD BUT IT IS

THEY CAN. THEY ARE WORKING HARD BUT IT IS A DISTINCT AREA OF CONCERN FOR A LOT OF SMALL BUSINESSES.

ANNMARIE: IS IT ENOUGH FOR SMALL BUSINESSES TO ACTUALLY CLOSE SHOP? GENE: I HAVE NOT SEEN THAT YET BUT

SHOP? GENE: I HAVE NOT SEEN THAT YET BUT FOLKS ARE WORRIED ABOUT WHAT THEY DO.

YOU HAVE TOY IMPORTERS WHO TAKE THE SIX WEEKS BEFORE THE HOLIDAYS TO MAKE PAYROLL FOR ALL OF 2026.

EVERYTHING THAT CUTS INTO THEIR MARGIN, IF THEY ARE DIPPING INTO CASH PREPAID -- TO PAY FOR THIS PRODUCT, THAT WILL PUT A SQUEEZE ON A LOT OF THEM. ANNMARIE:

WHAT KIND OF FRONTLOADING ARE YOU SEEING RIGHT NOW? GENE:

CARGO IS MODERATE. IT HAS NOT FALLEN OFF A CLIFF.

WE HAVE LUNAR NEW YEAR AROUND THE 17TH OF FEBRUARY SO WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A BUMP BEFORE THEN AND THEN EARLY SPRINGTIME FOR FASHION, HERE ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S.

FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER WE ARE ANTICIPATING ABOUT 800,000 CONTAINER UNITS. THAT'S A GOOD NUMBER BUT IT'S

CONTAINER UNITS. THAT'S A GOOD NUMBER BUT IT'S OFF JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE COMPS OF AN ELEVATED 2024. LISA:

YOU SAID THE TOTAL VOLUME OF SHIPMENTS FROM CHINA HAS JUMPED FROM 60% BACK TO 40%. YESTERDAY WE RAN A STORY SAYING CHINA JUST CROSSED THE $1 TRILLION SURPLUS MARK WHEN IT COMES TO TOTAL EXPORTS. HOW MUCH IS THE UNITED STATES GETTING CUT OUT OF GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS RIGHT NOW? GENE:

EVEN THOUGH IMPORTS FROM CHINA ARE DOWN, EXPORTS FROM CHINA TO THE REST OF THE WORLD ARE UP BY DOUBLE-DIGIT FASHION.

THEY ARE FINDING CUSTOMERS IN EUROPE, AFRICA AND ASIA COUNTRIES. BECAUSE OUR EXPORTS HAVE BEEN

COUNTRIES. BECAUSE OUR EXPORTS HAVE BEEN REALLY WANING THIS YEAR DUE TO THE TARIFFS AND DIFFERENT COUNTRY STEP AGAIN LIKE ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL ON SOYBEANS, AUSTRALIA WITH ALMONDS, WE ARE SEEING A DEPRESSED EXPORT MARKET. WE ONLY CONSUME ABOUT ONE THIRD

OF THE AG PRODUCTS WE HARVEST IN THE U.S. LISA:

DO YOU FEEL LIKE PEOPLE ARE OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME SORT OF CALIBRATION OF SOME OF THESE POLICIES OR DO YOU FEEL LIKE THERE IS A SORT OF GUT CHECK AND THE MENTALITY OF THE BUSINESSES YOU WORK WITH THAT HAVE TRADITIONALLY IMPORTED A LOT? GENE: THE WANT IS TO GET TO A MORE STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT. THE ON THE GROUND WORK IS STILL

STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT. THE ON THE GROUND WORK IS STILL SIMULATION. IF I HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER 10

SIMULATION. IF I HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER 10 PERCENTAGE POINT OF MY SOURCING FROM VIETNAM, WHAT IS THAT MEAN?

CAN I GET THE PRODUCT TO MY REGIONAL AND TIME FOR SALES ITEMS, FULFILLMENT CENTERS, ETC.?

IT'S A LOT OF EXTRA WORK BEYOND THE DAY-TO-DAY EXECUTION OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN. LISA: GENE SEROKA, PORT OF L.A.

SUPPLY CHAIN. LISA: GENE SEROKA, PORT OF L.A.

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR TALKING ABOUT SMALL BUSINESSES.

WE GOT THE SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY FROM NFIB THIS MORNING.

99 FROM THE EXPECTED 98.3. A REAL QUESTION ABOUT THE DISPROPORTIONATE INFLUENCE, WHETHER IT IS A BIG COMPANY WITH RESILIENCE OR SMALL COMPANY THAT'S HAVING TO EAT A LOT OF THE PRICES. ANNMARIE: IF YOU ARE WALMART OR TARGET, YOU CAN FRONTLOAD A LOT OF THIS AND YOU HAVE A LOT MORE FLEXIBILITY. ALSO GREAT POINT BY GENE.

FLEXIBILITY. ALSO GREAT POINT BY GENE.

THE DE MINIMIS TAX IS HUGE. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO PAY TAX ON THESE TRINKETS UNDER $800. NOW YOU'RE PAYING THAT LEVEL OF TARIFF AND TAX. THE PRICE AND THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS HAS JUST GONE UP. LISA: WHICH IS WHY YOU ARE GETTING INVESTOR DAYS FROM DIFFERENT COMPANIES, POTENTIALLY THE FIRST 10 YEARS, AND THE CLARITY IS NOT MUCH BECAUSE THEY DON'T HAVE MUCH CLARITY EITHER. THE RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS

INCREDIBLY WIDE. WE WILL CONTINUE THAT

INCREDIBLY WIDE. WE WILL CONTINUE THAT CONVERSATION AS IT BECOMES A VERY HEAVY DEALS ENVIRONMENT.

COMING UP NEXT, SARAH HUNT, ESWAR PRASAD AND SAMUEL ZIEF AS WE COUNT TO THE FED MEETING. THE RATE DECISION EXPECTED TO END IN A RATE DECREASE. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ."

." ♪ >> MARKETS ARE LOOKING SHORT-TERM.

THEY THINK THERE WILL BE ANOTHER FED RATE CUT.

>> I PROBABLY WOULD NOT CUT AT THIS MEETING THIS WEEK.

INFLATION IS A CONCERN FOR ME.

>> THE FED RATE CUT IS THE RIGHT THING AND I THINK WE WILL GET IT.

>> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ AND ANNMARIE HORDERN.

LISA: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME BACK TO "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ." STOCKS RANGE BOUND. U.S.

YIELDS ARE RISING TO THE HIGHEST LEVELS IN ALMOST THREE MONTHS. HOLLYWOOD DRAMA MEETS BOARD

MONTHS. HOLLYWOOD DRAMA MEETS BOARD ROOM DRAMA WITH PARAMOUNT'S HOSTILE TAKEOVER BID FOR WARNER BROS. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A NEW

BROS. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A NEW CHAPTER IN THE MEDIA LANDSCAPE. NVIDIA GETTING A WIN AS PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNS OFF ON THE SALE OF H200 CHIPS TO CHINA WITH A 25% TARIFF AND POTENTIALLY A REAL QUESTION ABOUT THE NEW LANDSCAPE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY. ANNMARIE:

THIS WAS SEEN AS A CHIP THAT POTENTIALLY WAS TOO ADVANCED TO GO TO CHINA.

WHEN CHINA WAS OFFERED H20 CHIPS, THEY TOLD THEIR FIRMS TO SHRUG THEM OFF BECAUSE THEY WANTED THE BEST OF THE BEST.

THE IMPORTANT QUESTION, MAYBE THIS IS WHY NVIDIA'S STOCK IS NOT RISING AS MUCH. THE FINANCIAL TIMES REPORTED THIS MORNING ABOUT CHINESE REGULARS -- REGULATORS LIMITING THE PERMITS. NO FINAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE

THE PERMITS. NO FINAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BUT IT SEEMS LIKE CHINA IS GOING TO BE INCREDIBLY CHOOSY ON WHAT CHIPS THEY ALLOW INTO WHICH FIRMS. LISA: WHICH IS WHY PEOPLE ARE NOT BIDDING UP THIS YEAR IS MORE OF THE LIKES OF NVIDIA AND AMD.

SOME OF THE DETAILS COMING OUT BEHIND THE PARAMOUNT BID FOR WARNER BROS. AND THE NETFLIX BID.

WARNER BROS. AND THE NETFLIX BID.

NETFLIX'S IS INTERESTING. A $59 BILLION LINE OF CREDIT FROM WELLS FARGO AND HSBC. FOR PARAMOUNT, MONEY FROM THE ELLISON FAMILY, FROM QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA, ABU DHABI AND JARED KUSHNER. ANNMARIE: THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THIS

JARED KUSHNER. ANNMARIE: THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR WE SEE THE SAUDI SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND PARTNERING WITH JARED KUSHNER'S FIRM WHEN IT COMES TO DOING A MASSIVE DEAL.

THIS IS WHY THIS IS SO INTERESTING.

IT IS NOT WHO HAS THE BETTER DEAL FOR SHAREHOLDERS.

WHAT KIND OF MAKEUP IS THE COMPANY?

THEY ARE SELLING DIFFERENT PARTS OR GOING AFTER DIFFERENT PARTS WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DEALS.

SOME -- NETFLIX ONCE THE CATALOG FROM THE STUDIO.

PARAMOUNT WANTS THE WHOLE THING, INCLUDING THE NEWS DIVISION. WHICH CAN GET REGULATORY

DIVISION. WHICH CAN GET REGULATORY APPROVAL IS IMPORTANT. THE PRESIDENT SAID I HAVE TO SEE WHAT PERCENTAGE OF MARKET THEY HAVE.

NONE OF THEM ARE PARTICULARLY GREAT FRIENDS OF MINE, WHICH I FEEL LIKE LARRY ELLISON AND JARED KUSHNER WOULD DISAGREE.

LISA: IT DOES HIGHLIGHT HOW WE ARE SEEING A NEW ERA FOR DEALMAKING BOTH IN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MARKETS. THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THE

MARKETS. THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THE FED WILL FUEL THIS TOMORROW BUT SIGNALING POTENTIALLY A SLEW OF ADDITIONAL RATE CUTS EARLY NEXT YEAR.

WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS A LACK OF REAL DIRECTION, TRYING TO REBOUND A TOUCH WITH THE S&P UP ABOUT 1/10 OF 1%.

EC YIELDS ESSENTIALLY FLAT ON THE 10-YEAR.

-- YOU SEE YIELDS ESSENTIALLY FLAT ON THE 10-YEAR.

FLAT WHEN IT COMES TO THE CURRENCY MARKET.

CRUDE HAS BEEN HOVERING IN A BORING PLACE.

IT IS A SUPPLY-DEMAND STORY THAT HAS MORE TO DO WITH OPEC THAN WITH THE CONSUMER. COMING UP, DON'T MISS SARAH HUNT OF ALPINE SAXON WOODS AS A LEADS MARKETS HIGHER.

ESWAR PRASAD, AND SAM ZIEF SAYING RATE CUTS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. STOCKS HOLDING STEADY.

AGGRESSIVE. STOCKS HOLDING STEADY.

SARAH HUNT SEES AI AS A MARKET DRIVER, WRITING, "WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS WE LOOK FORWARD TO 2026 AND EXPECT SOME VOLATILITY AROUND THE EVER MOVING SENTIMENT ON WHO WINS AND LOSES IN THE AI SANDBOX." SARAH, GOOD MORNING.

LET'S START WITH THE SANDBOX WHO IS ALLOWED TO SELL WHAT TO WHO AND THE IDEA OF NVIDIA AND POTENTIALLY SELLING H200 CHIPS TO CHINA. IS THAT A GAME CHANGER FOR YOU

TO CHINA. IS THAT A GAME CHANGER FOR YOU GIVEN THE FACT IT REARRANGES SOME OF OUR NOTION OF A NATIONAL SECURITY MEANS? SARAH: THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH BACK AND FORTH. THE H200 WAS DEVELOPED TO BE

FORTH. THE H200 WAS DEVELOPED TO BE EXPORTED AS OPPOSED TO OTHER CHIPS THAT WERE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE EXPORTED. THERE HAS BEEN A HUGE MOVE IN

BE EXPORTED. THERE HAS BEEN A HUGE MOVE IN THAT SENTIMENT. THERE'S AN ARGUMENT TO BE MADE

THAT SENTIMENT. THERE'S AN ARGUMENT TO BE MADE ON BOTH SIDES, ONE FOR SECURITY AND ONE FOR WANTING THE PARADIGM TO BE THE TECHNOLOGY WE ARE EXPORTING AS OPPOSED TO LETTING PEOPLE DEVELOP TECHNOLOGY AFTER THE DEEPSEEK SCARE AND SOME OF THE OTHER THINGS THAT HAVE GONE ON IN THE AI WORLD. I CAN UNDERSTAND WHY THAT MAKES

AI WORLD. I CAN UNDERSTAND WHY THAT MAKES SOME SENSE. AT THE MOMENT WE WILL SEE HOW

SOME SENSE. AT THE MOMENT WE WILL SEE HOW MUCH TRACTION THAT GETS WHEN THAT IS ALLOWED. LISA:

IT COMES AT A TIME OF GREAT COMPETITION AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO THE BROADER STORY.

THERE ARE COMPETITORS, WHICH IS WHY IT MIGHT BE DANGEROUS NOT TO HAVE PEOPLE ADDICTED TO YOUR CHIP.

HOW MUCH ARE WE SEEING A GAME CHANGING LANDSCAPE WHEN IT COMES TO 2026? EVERY COMPANY IS A TECH COMPANY.

THOSE WILL BE THE BIG WINNERS, NOT NECESSARILY THE RANK-AND-FILE THAT BENEFITED THE MOST TODAY. SARAH:

THAT IS PART OF THE WHOLE SWITCH THAT PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR. WE HAVE BEEN BUILDING UP THE

FOR. WE HAVE BEEN BUILDING UP THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF ANY OF THE COMPANIES MAKING INFRASTRUCTURE AND NOW WE ARE LOOKING FOR USE CASES.

WHO WILL BENEFIT THE MOST? WHO WILL HAVE THIS MARGIN CREATED AS OPPOSED TO MARGIN DETRIMENTAL?

THAT IS WHERE HE'S NOT WRONG TO SAY EVERYBODY IS A TECH COMPANY.

EVERYONE IS LOOKING AT HOW TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THEIR PROCESS AND HOW TO MAKE THINGS BETTER.

AT THE SAME TIME THEY ARE SAYING WE ARE NOT GOING TO FIRE EVERYBODY, BECAUSE THAT IS A CONCERN ON THE LABOR SIDE.

ANNMARIE: WHO IS ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTING AI IN A WAY THAT IS WORTH BUYING SOME OF THE COMPANIES? SARAH:

THERE IS ENORMOUS POTENTIAL IN PLACES LIKE HEALTH CARE.

THERE ARE COMPANIES LOOKING TO TAKE SOME OF THOSE WIDE-RANGING NUMBERS OF CANDIDATES AND NARROW THEM DOWN BEFORE YOU GET INTO THE LAB SO YOU HAVE A BETTER SHOT ON GOAL FOR SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR RESEARCH ON THE BIOTECH SIDE. IF YOU ARE FINALLY SEEING THE

BIOTECH SIDE. IF YOU ARE FINALLY SEEING THE BIOTECH STICK UP ITS HEAD A LITTLE AFTER THE HEALTH CARE SITE HAS NOT BE DOING AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS.

THAT IS A PLACE WHERE THE DATA AND CONSOLIDATING SOME OF THE DATA CAN BE VERY HELPFUL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF PLACES FOR THAT. IF YOU THINK ABOUT INSURANCE

THAT. IF YOU THINK ABOUT INSURANCE AND ALL SORTS OF THINGS THAT USE BIG, HUGE DATA SETS, HOW CAN I USE THAT INFORMATION TO NARROW DOWN WHAT MIGHT BE THE BEST OUTCOME IN A LOT OF DIFFERENT THINGS?

THERE ARE WAYS TO DO THAT. FOR US, YOU CAN GET A LOT OF THINGS DONE AND PUT IT THROUGH. YOU DON'T NECESSARILY HAVE TO BELIEVE EVERYTHING IT SPITS OUT BUT IT GIVES YOU PLACES TO START THAT WOULD HAVE TAKEN YOU HOURS BEFORE. ANNMARIE:

HOW MUCH DO YOU SEE THE -- DO YOU NEED TO SEE THAT STORY DEVELOPED IN 2026? SARAH: IT'S A BIG DEAL.

THE USE CASES BECOME MORE IMPORTANT.

YOU CAN TALK ABOUT THE UBIQUITY AND HOW WE USE THINGS BUT THE SPEND HAS BEEN ENORMOUS AND SOME OF THESE COMPANIES DON'T HAVE THE REVENUE TO BACK UP THE SPEND.

SOME COMPANIES ARE USING THEIR BALANCE SHEETS.

SOME WILL BE TAKING OUT THAT. IT'S A PARADIGM SHIFT BETWEEN COMPANIES THAT WERE ALL CAPS GENERATIVE TO COMPANIES THAT ARE USING THAT CASH. YOU CAN MAKE THE ARGUMENT WITH NETFLIX AND WARNER BROS. AS WELL.

THAT WAS NOT AN ASSET FIRM. THERE IS A LOT GOING ON INTO NEXT YEAR WHICH IS WHY I THINK WE ARE POSITIVE BUT I THINK IT MIGHT BE SOME VOLATILITY. THERE ARE PLACES WHERE YOU WANT TO BE CAREFUL. LISA: IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU AGREE WITH THE GOLDMAN SACHS SURVEY ON SOME LEVEL WHERE THEY TALKED ABOUT OPTIMISM IN THE LIGHT OF SOME FED RATE CUTS,

ACCOMMODATION BOTH PHYSICAL AND MONETARY POLICYMAKERS AND THE AI TRADE. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE OPTIMISTIC

AI TRADE. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE OPTIMISTIC SEEING A YEAR IN TARGET OF 7000 TO 7500, NOT NECESSARILY THE 8100 OF JOHN STOLTZFUS, DO YOU LINE UP WITH THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT TURN IN LEADERSHIP? SARAH:

WE HAVE HAD SUCH A CHANGE SINCE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS.

THESE THINGS DON'T FOLLOW THESE THINGS.

RIGHT NOW THE COMPANIES THAT ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE THEIR REVENUES REGARDLESS OF THEIR VALUATIONS -- PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR THEM STILL BECAUSE THEY SEE A PATH FOR THAT. AS YOU SEE THINGS ROUND OUT

THAT. AS YOU SEE THINGS ROUND OUT THAT WILL HELP ON THE EARNINGS FRONT.

IF YOU SEE ANY DEGRADATION IN EARNINGS I WOULD BE MUCH LESS OPTIMISTIC. PART OF WHAT PEOPLE ARE

OPTIMISTIC. PART OF WHAT PEOPLE ARE BUILDING ON FOR NEXT YEAR'S SOME OF THE THINGS YOU MENTIONED ON THE FISCAL FRONT BUT ALSO IN GENERAL THEY ARE LOOKING AT AN ECONOMY THEY THINK WILL BE DOING FAIRLY WELL.

IF THERE IS ANY CHANGE IN THAT OR MARGINS HAVE A PROBLEM, IT'S A BIGGER ISSUE THAN IT WOULD BE AT THE MOMENT. LISA:

THAT IS ONE SIDE OF THE STORY, THE STOCK MARKET SEEING GROWTH AND OPTIMISM. THE BOND MARKET IS SEEING

AND OPTIMISM. THE BOND MARKET IS SEEING ENOUGH WEAKNESS FOR THE FED TO BE AGGRESSIVELY CUTTING.

IT SEEMS LIKE SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE HERE.

WE ARE SEEING THE BOND MARKET LOSE A LITTLE BIT OF FOOTING WITH LONG AND YIELDS RISING. DO YOU THINK THEY ARE ASSESSING OUT THE STRENGTH IN STOCKS OR THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HAS TO DO WITH THE GLOBAL PHENOMENON LIFTING YIELDS? SARAH:

THE TRICKIEST THING FOR CENTRAL BANKS IS THE GLOBAL INDEBTEDNESS HAS IT EXPANDED SO MUCH VERSUS WHERE IT WAS PRE-FINANCIAL CRISIS THAT WHEN BOND YIELDS START TO MOVE AROUND IT BECOMES MUCH TRICKIER TO FIGURE OUT WHY THEY'RE MOVING IN THE DIRECTION THEY ARE MOVING.

WE HAVE SEEN THE DECOUPLING OF YIELDS IN STOCKS -- AND STOCKS OVER THE YEARS. THOSE HISTORIC RELATIONSHIPS ARE NOT HOLDING BECAUSE OF A LOT OF FACTORS WE CANNOT QUITE FIGURE OUT HOW TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT.

IT IS HARD TO ANSWER THAT. THE CONCERN IS INDEBTEDNESS.

WE HAVE A LOT OF -- EVERYONE HAS TO REFINANCE A LOT ON THE GOVERNMENT SIDE. FORGET THE PRIVATE SIDE.

GOVERNMENT SIDE. FORGET THE PRIVATE SIDE.

SOME OF THAT IS MAKING IT TRICKY TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY FROM A DIRECTIONAL STANDPOINT WHICH WAY YIELDS -- WHAT THE YIELDS ARE TELLING US. ANNMARIE: ALSO IN PLACES LIKE JAPAN.

SARAH: ABSOLUTELY. FOR YEARS YOU HAD A FAIRLY QUIET, FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUARANTEE TRADE EVERYONE WAS LOOKING AT AND USING. ALL OF A SUDDEN, YIELDS AND JAPAN GO FROM A VERY CONSISTENT ALMOST 02 NOT SO CONSISTENT AND MUCH HIGHER. THAT HAS BEEN A CHANGE.

MUCH HIGHER. THAT HAS BEEN A CHANGE.

THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF MONEY FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THAT.

THAT IS ONE OF THOSE THINGS THAT IT IS ONE OF THE MANY VARIABLES THAT IS HARD TO SAY IT HAPPENED BECAUSE THAT HAPPENED, BUT IT'S PART OF THE CONCERN ABOUT YIELDS. LISA:

WHAT IS YOUR HIGHEST CONVICTION TRADE HEADING INTO 2026? SARAH:

A CASH UP ON SMALL CAP. YOU HAD TWO YEARS OF BAD EARNINGS AND SMALL-CAP AND EVERYONE SAID THIS WILL BE THEIR YEAR.

I THINK SOME OF THAT, YOU CAN SEE IN EARNINGS JUMP AND PEOPLE LIKE TO SEE THOSE EARNINGS JUMPS.

YOU HAVE TO BE PROFITABLE. LOOK AT COMPANIES WHERE WE WANT TO SEE THE CASH FLOW AND THE ABILITY TO BUY BACK YOUR OWN STOCK WHICH IN SMALL CAPS IS HARDER, BUT IF YOU SEE DIVIDENDS PAID AND YOU SEE THE EXPANSION OF CASH FLOW, WE ARE VERY BALANCE SHEETS SENSITIVE. WE ARE VERY BALANCE SHEETS SENSITIVE BECAUSE THERE'S A LOT GOING ON WITH CASH. LISA:

SMALL CAPS HAVE GAINED FAVOR IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SARAH HUNT WILL BE STICKING WITH US.

LET'S GET AN UPDATE ON STORIES ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING.

HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. YAHAIRA:

GOOGLE IS BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION OVER WHETHER IT HAS ABUSED ITS DOMINANCE BY USING ITS OWN AI TOOLS TO SQUEEZE OUT COMPETITION. THE COMMISSION SAYING IT WILL LOOK AT WHETHER THE FIRM HAS DISTORTED COMPETITION BY IMPOSING UNFAIR TERMS ON CONTENT CREATORS AND GIVING ITS OWN AI MODEL AN ADVANTAGE OVER ITS RIVALS.

TWO MEN ARE BEING DETAINED BY THE DOJ FOR ALLEGEDLY ATTEMPTING TO SMUGGLE AT LEAST $160 MILLION WORTH OF NVIDIA AI CHIPS TO CHINA. THE DEPARTMENT ALLEGES THE MEN OPERATED A NETWORK THAT REPLACED NVIDIA LABELS FROM CHIPS WITH THE FICTIONAL BRAND BEFORE SHIPPING THEM.

A THIRD SUSPECT IS ALREADY PLEADED GUILTY.

JIMMY KIMMEL IS BACK FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE YEAR AFTER A NEW DEAL WITH ABC. SOURCES TELLING US THAT JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MAY OF 2027.

THE HOST AND DISNEY AGREE ON EXTENSION MONTHS AGO BUT DELAYED ANNOUNCING THEIR PLANS OUT OF RESPECT FOR AXED FELLOW LATE-NIGHT HOST STEPHEN COLBERT.

LISA: UP NEXT, PARAMOUNT VERSUS NETFLIX.

>> I WANT TO KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING.

WE HAVE TO SEE THAT NETFLIX PERCENTAGE.

NONE OF THEM ARE PARTICULARLY GREAT FRIENDS OF MINE. LISA:

EVEN HIS SON-IN-LAW? TYLER KENDALL JOINS US NEXT.

THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

♪ LISA: REALLY TRYING TO GET THAT SANTA CLAUS RALLY UNDER WELL. -- UNDERWAY.

A LITTLE TEPID LIFT TO FUTURES AS THE SESSION GROWS OLDER.

IN THE YIELD SPACE, WATCH THIS. THIS HAS BEEN DRIVING A LOT OF RISK SENTIMENT. YIELDS UP AGAIN IN THE 10-YEAR.

RISK SENTIMENT. YIELDS UP AGAIN IN THE 10-YEAR.

4.17%. BC YIELDS CLIMB TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE END OF SEPTEMBER.

A QUESTION ABOUT THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY GIVEN WE ARE ALREADY OPERATING IN A FOG. TODAY WE GET THE JOLTS JOB OPENINGS DATA AND THE QUITS RATE. THAT WILL BE VERY KEY.

TOMORROW, ECI. THE IMPLEMENT COST INDEX AND THE FED RATE DECISION. JEROME POWELL COMING OUT WITH HIS STATEMENT WITH A FORECAST. BEFORE THAT, ORACLE.

A QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER WE WILL GET AN ACCURATE READ IN THE ECONOMY. ANNMARIE: IT'S A HUGE QUESTION.

THE ECONOMY. ANNMARIE: IT'S A HUGE QUESTION.

PREPARING FOR A FEW MONTHS OF WE ARE DATA.

WE WILL NOT GET OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER PPI DATA UNTIL JANUARY OF THE NEW YEAR, WHICH IS WHY TODAY AND TOMORROW'S FED MEETING IS SO IMPORTANT. WHAT DO THEY SIGNAL FOR 2026 GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE DATA IS FRANKLY WEIRD? LISA:

HOW DID THEY SEE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES VERSUS THE JOB LOSSES WE HAVE SEEN? ALL EYES ON THE BOARDROOM DRAMA.

UNDER SURVEILLANCE, PARAMOUNT VERSUS NETFLIX.

>> I AND OTHER COMPANIES VERY WELL AND WHAT THEY ARE DOING BUT I HAVE TO SEE WHAT PERCENTAGE OF MARKET THEY HAVE.

WE HAVE TO SEE THE NETFLIX PERCENTAGE OF MARKET.

PARAMOUNT, THE PERCENTAGE OF MARKET.

NONE OF THEM ARE PARTICULARLY GREAT FRIENDS OF MINE.

I WANT TO DO WHAT IS RIGHT. LISA:

PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE VALUING THE COMPANY AT $108 BILLION. THAT'S JUST DAYS AFTER WHEN IT RUNS AGREED TO A DEAL WITH NETFLIX.

TYLER KENDALL JOINS US NOW FOR MORE.

HOW MUCH DOES A WHITE HOUSE HOLD THE KEYS TO WHO WINS THIS DEAL? TYLER:

DEAL? TYLER: EACH DEAL'S POTENTIAL TO PASS REGULATORY CLEARANCE IN WASHINGTON AND WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AS A BIG FACTOR.

AS YOU JUST HEARD, THE PRESIDENT MAINTAINED HE'S NOT CLOSE WITH EITHER COMPANY, NETFLIX OR PARAMOUNT, DESPITE PARAMOUNT'S BAD CHAMPION BY THE ELLISON FAMILY THAT HAS CLOSE TIES TO THIS WHITE HOUSE AND EQUITY VECTORS LIKE THE PRESIDENT'S SON-IN-LAW PRIVATE EQUITY FIRM.

THE PRESIDENT MAINTAINED HE HAS NOT SPOKEN TO KUSHNER ABOUT THE PROPOSAL.

PARAMOUNT'S BID IS NOTABLE FOR THE SCOPE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT.

IT INCLUDES SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS FROM SAUDI ARABIA AND QATAR. PARAMOUNT HAS REALLY BEEN LOBBYING OFFICIALS IN

QATAR. PARAMOUNT HAS REALLY BEEN LOBBYING OFFICIALS IN WASHINGTON. THERE WAS REPORTING THAT THE

WASHINGTON. THERE WAS REPORTING THAT THE CEO DAVID ELLISON DID MEET FACE-TO-FACE WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP AT THE KENNEDY CENTER HONORS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THEY TRIED TO PITCH INVESTORS THEY HAVE THE CLEARER PATH WHEN IT COMES TO PASSING REGULATORY MUSTER.

THEY ARE ARGUING THAT NETFLIX WOULD HARM COMPETITION WHEN THEY TALK TO OFFICIALS. WE CANNOT FORGET IT WAS A BLOOMBERG NEWS SCOOPED THAT THE NETFLIX CEO TED SARANDOS MET WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP IN RECENT WEEKS AT THE WHITE HOUSE WHERE HE MADE THE CASE THAT NETFLIX COMPETITION IS NOT ONLY IN THE STREAMING SPACE.

PEOPLE FAMILIAR TELL US THAT HE LEFT THE MEETING WITH THE FEELING HE WOULD NOT FACE IMMEDIATE OPPOSITION FROM THE WHITE HOUSE. LISA: ONE OF THESE INCLUDE THE NEWS

WHITE HOUSE. LISA: ONE OF THESE INCLUDE THE NEWS DIVISION AND THE OTHER DOESN'T. COULD THAT TIE UP BETWEEN ONE ARE BROTHERS AND ABC AND CBS THE QUESTION OF DAVID ELLISON WINNING THIS VERSUS NETFLIX AND THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A PROBLEM FOR THE PRESIDENT GIVEN SOME OF HIS PUSH BACK ON THE

MEDIA LANDSCAPE? TYLER: EXACTLY. YOU'VE HEARD IN THAT CLIP YOU

MEDIA LANDSCAPE? TYLER: EXACTLY. YOU'VE HEARD IN THAT CLIP YOU PLAYED PRESIDENT TRUMP TALKING ABOUT HOW THE MEDIA HAS BEEN PORTRAYING THIS, OFTEN SAYING HE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE PLAYERS AND THE FACTORS HERE. WHEN WE SEE THIS REPORTING AROUND LOOK WHAT HAPPENED TO THE FUTURE OF CNN AND HOW PARAMOUNT COULD ADDRESS THAT SINCE WE KNOW IT IS A TOP

CONCERN FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP, THAT MIGHT PLAY INTO THE PICTURE HERE. WE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT

PICTURE HERE. WE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS HERE THEY WILL BE THAT REGULATORY SCRUTINY.

WE ARE EXPECTING THIS WILL FALL TO THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE.

THEY TYPICALLY OVERSEE MEDIA MERGERS AND THAT CAN TAKE ANYWHERE FROM 10 MONTHS FOR AN INVESTIGATION TO WRAP AND THEN ULTIMATELY DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO PURSUE TO BLOCK THE DEAL.

THERE ARE MANY FACTORS WE HAVE TO WAIT. -- WEIGH.

LISA: I'M CURIOUS ABOUT THE BACKDROP.

THE DEBT MARKET IS WIDE OPEN. BANKS ARE WILLING TO PUT UP THEIR $59 BILLION BRIDGE LOAN, ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVER AS NETFLIX GOES FORWARD IN THIS DEAL.

DOES THE MOOD OF MARKETS SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TO A DIFFERENT KIND OF 2006-2007 KIND OF FEEL VERSUS WHERE THEY WERE TO START 2025? SARAH: THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A

2025? SARAH: THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A PICKUP IN MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS.

THE FACT THAT THE IPO MARKET HAS BEEN SO QUIET IS ONE THING THAT HAS EVERYBODY JUMPING ON M&A AS OPPOSED TO SOME OF THE OTHER ASPECTS OF CAPITAL MARKETS ON THE EQUITY SIDE.

BETWEEN THE FACT THERE IS PLENTY OF MONEY LOOKING FOR A HOME IN PLENTY OF PEOPLE LOOKING FOR IN TRANSACTIONS, YOU CAN SEE THE STEP UP IN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. ANNMARIE:

WHAT IF THIS IS BECOMING A FIGHT WHEN IT COMES SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE ASSETS FOR WARNER BROS.? SARAH:

YOU HAVE HAD AN INDUSTRY THAT HAS BEEN SAID THIS INTERMEDIATED BY THE INTERNET. EVEN THINKING ABOUT THE NEWS DIVISION, HOW MANY NEWS CHANNELS DID IT BECOME OVER A PERIOD OF TIME? IT IS NOT THE WAY WE WERE.

WE STILL THINK OF THREE MAJOR NETWORKS AND EVERY THING ELSE.

IT HAS BEEN A VERY DIFFERENT SITUATION.

BETWEEN THAT AND WHAT HAPPENED WITH STREAMING AND TAKING THINGS OUT OF THE THEATER, THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFERENT ISSUES TO PLAY WITH ON THE REGULATORY FRONT.

IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MAKE THOSE DECISIONS.

I THINK YOU HAVE REAL ISSUES POTENTIALLY WITH BOTH OF THESE.

ANNMARIE: WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT SHAREHOLDERS GIVEN WHERE THE STOCK PRICE IS? THEY DON'T LIKE THE IDEA BRINGING ON MORE ASSETS. THESE WERE COMPANIES IN THE TECH SPACE THAT WORK CASH HEAVY, ASSET LIGHT. SARAH:

THAT'S ONE OF THE HEAD SCRATCHERS ABOUT THE CHANGE IN STRATEGY FROM AN OUTSIDE PERSPECTIVE.

YOU HAVE THIS FANTASTIC STREAMING SERVICE.

IF YOU ARE NETFLIX, YOU ARE GENERATING ENORMOUS CASH.

FOR SEVERAL YEARS THEY WEREN'T. THEY WERE PENALIZED WHEN THEY WEREN'T GETTING ALL THIS CASH. PEOPLE WERE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW THAT WOULD WORK. ALL OF A SUDDEN THIS IS A CHANGE AND I'M NOT SURE HOW PEOPLE ARE GOING TO FEEL ABOUT THAT. THAT IS ONE OF THE THINGS WE

THAT. THAT IS ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE IS A CONCERN FOR NEXT YEAR. THE RETURNS ON THE CASH MOST OF THE COMPANIES HAVE BEEN GETTING FOR A LONG TIME HAS BEEN FANTASTIC. THEY ARE PUTTING IN A BUNCH OF

FANTASTIC. THEY ARE PUTTING IN A BUNCH OF ASSETS THAT MAY NOT HAVE THE SAME RETURN PROFILE.

THAT IS A PARADIGM SHIFT THE MARKET WILL HAVE TO COME TO GRIPS WITH. LISA: THE INVESTMENT SIDE OR EQUITY

GRIPS WITH. LISA: THE INVESTMENT SIDE OR EQUITY SIDE GIVEN THE CHANGE? SARAH: INTERESTING QUESTION.

WE ARE MOSTLY EQUITY PEOPLE. I THINK DEPENDING ON HOW LEVERAGED YOU ARE YOU WILL WANT TO BE LOOKING AT THE DEBT VERSUS EQUITY. WHAT THIS WOULD DO TO NETFLIX

VERSUS EQUITY. WHAT THIS WOULD DO TO NETFLIX IS DRIVING IT INTO CRAZY LEVERED TERRITORY.

PARAMOUNT IS TRYING TO RAISE MORE EQUITY THAN DEBT.

IT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE ENTIRE CAPITAL STRUCTURE LOOKS LIKE AND WHAT YOU THINK THE CASH FLOW WILL BE AFTER THAT.

THERE ARE ARGUMENTS FOR BOTH BUT IT DEPENDS ON WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR. LISA:

LOOKING FOR. LISA: JIM SELTZER WAS ON AND SAID PEOPLE ARE EXPECTING DISRUPTION IN THE BUSINESS MODELS THAT ARE NOT PRICING AND HOW EXPONENTIAL SOME OF THE REVALUATIONS CAN BE. THINGS CAN GO TO ZERO.

I AM THINKING OF XEROX AND KODAK AND OTHER COMPANIES THAT OVERNIGHT BECOME OBSOLETE. YOU SEEK QUESTIONS AROUND SOME OF THE MOVIE THEATER OPERATORS IN THE WAKE OF A POTENTIAL SHIFT IN BUSINESS MODEL. HOW DO YOU AVOID THOSE POTHOLES OF POTENTIAL BUSINESSES THAT SUDDENLY OVERNIGHT JUST BECOME WORTH NOTHING? SARAH: THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS WE

WORTH NOTHING? SARAH: THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS WE LIKE TO FOLLOW THINGS LIKE CASH FLOW AS OPPOSED TO JUST EARNINGS. YOU START TO SEE COMPANIES NOT

EARNINGS. YOU START TO SEE COMPANIES NOT BEING ABLE TO GENERATE CASH AS THINGS GET WORSE.

THEY MIGHT BE PUTTING A EARNINGS FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS BUT YOU WANT TO LOOK AT THAT AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE STILL SEEING A BUSINESS MODEL THAT IS VIABLE REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS GOING ON. THIS GOES TO THE NETWORKS.

YOU HAD THESE BIG CASH NETWORKS AND ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY PAID THESE MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY FOR SPORTS AND EVERY THING ELSE.

YOU WONDER IF THE ADVERTISING COMING IN STRONGLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL OF THAT. I'M NOT SURE THE ANSWER IS YES.

IF YOU FOLLOW THAT TRAJECTORY, GIVES YOU INSIGHT INTO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE FUTURE. LISA: SARAH HUNT, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

YOU DON'T BELIEVE THAT THIS ACTUALLY -- THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS NOT TALKING TO HIS SON-IN-LAW OR ONE OF HIS BEST FRIENDS? ANNMARIE: YOUR QUESTION ABOUT THE NEWS

FRIENDS? ANNMARIE: YOUR QUESTION ABOUT THE NEWS DIVISION, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL HAD A STORY ABOUT HOW THERE WAS A DECEMBER MEETING. DAVID ELLISON OFFERED ASSURANCES TO TRUMP ABOUT CHANGES AT CNN.

IT SAID TRUMP HAS TOLD PEOPLE CLOSE TO HIM HE WANTS NEW OWNERSHIP OF CNN AND CHANGES TO CNN PROGRAMMING.

THAT CAN CAST A CLOUD AND CONTROVERSY AROUND THIS DEAL IF PARAMOUNT ENDS UP WINNING OVER IN THE BIDDING WAR. LISA:

A HOST OF QUESTIONS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASKING.

THE WHITE HOUSE REVERSES ITS STANCE ON SELLING NVIDIA CHIPS TO CHINA. DANI BURGER WILL HAVE YOUR

TO CHINA. DANI BURGER WILL HAVE YOUR MORNING MOVERS. AUTOZONE SHARES ARE FALLING AS

MORNING MOVERS. AUTOZONE SHARES ARE FALLING AS THEY MISSED ESTIMATES. THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.

♪ LISA: THE BIG QUESTION IS CAN BOND MARKETS TO SUSTAIN SOME SORT OF RALLY AFTER TWO STRAIGHT DAYS OF LOSSES WITH YIELDS RISING TO THE HIGHEST LEVELS GOING BACK TO SEPTEMBER. YOU ARE SEEING RANGE BOUND

TO SEPTEMBER. YOU ARE SEEING RANGE BOUND BETWEEN GAINS AND LOSSES WITH THE S&P FUTURES HAVE ABOUT 1/10 OF 1%. IT DOES HINGE ON TWOS, TENS AND

OF 1%. IT DOES HINGE ON TWOS, TENS AND 30'S. WE SAW A BID INTO THE LONG END.

30'S. WE SAW A BID INTO THE LONG END.

WE SEE THAT MARGINALLY AFTER THAT TWO-DAY SELLOUT THAT SENT YIELDS HIGHER.

TWO-YEAR'S GETTING HIGHER AND PULLBACK IN THE EXPECTATIONS.

THE FED IS WIDELY EXPECTED TO CUT RATES.

HOW MUCH CAN THEY POSSIBLY CUT NEXT YEAR GIVEN THE FACT EVERYONE IS EXPECTING A REBOUND IN THE U.S. CONSUMER?

HERE ARE THE MORNING MOVERS WITH DANI BURGER. DANI:

THIS MORNING WE GOT AN UPDATE FROM CVS WHERE THE EARNINGS OUTLOOK DID NOT BEAT EXPECTATIONS.

REVENUE DIDN'T BUT I GUESS EARNINGS WAS ENOUGH TO LIFT THINGS HIGHER. THEY SAY IT DOES IMPLY

THINGS HIGHER. THEY SAY IT DOES IMPLY EXPECTATIONS ARE AHEAD OF THE STREET'S.

THEY TALKED ABOUT AND NEW CONSUMER PLATFORM THAT WAS AI ENABLED. SHARES OF UNDER JUST UNDER --

ENABLED. SHARES OF UNDER JUST UNDER -- UP UNDER JUST 3% THIS MORNING.

COREWEAVE ISSUING MORE DEBT. SHARES FELL 2.3% AFTER THAT NEWS. THIS MORNING THEY ANNOUNCED

NEWS. THIS MORNING THEY ANNOUNCED THEY ARE UPPING THE SIZE AND IT WILL BE $2.25 BILLION.

SHARES FELL THIS MORNING BY 1.6% IN THE PREMARKET.

WE GOT SOME EARNINGS FROM AUTOZONE MOMENTS AGO.

THOSE EARNINGS ALSO MISSING EXPECTATIONS.

IT IS THE CONCERN ABOUT THE CONSUMER, BIG-TICKET PURCHASES, AND WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR DIFFERENT PARTS AND SUPPLIES FOR THEIR CARS. THEY TALKED ABOUT THE FACT THEY WILL AGGRESSIVELY OPEN STORES HOPING TO CAPTURE MORE MARKET SHARE. SHARES ARE DOWN ABOUT 1.7%.

SHARE. SHARES ARE DOWN ABOUT 1.7%.

LISA: PICKING UP COREWEAVE, INTERESTING TO SEE THEM CONTINUING THE SLIDE. THE CONCERT -- CONVERTIBLE SHARE SALE. HOW MUCH THEY NEED TO RAISE

SHARE SALE. HOW MUCH THEY NEED TO RAISE FUNDING TO FINANCE WHAT THEY ARE DOING FOR OPENAI.

THIS COMES BACK TO SAM ALTMAN AND HIS SHADOW OVER THIS MARKET.

ANNMARIE: THIS IS WHITE PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT AN AI BUBBLE. THE CIRCULAR TRANSACTIONS BETWEEN THESE COMPANIES IS WHY YOU HAVE BASICALLY THE PLUG OF AN OUTLET INTO AN OUTLET BANK. IT IS ABSOLUTELY CIRCULAR.

UNTIL THEY SHOW MORE PROFIT AND SHOW THAT ACTUALLY HOW AI IS WORKING, NOT JUST THE BASICS OF NOW WITH CHATGPT BUT ACROSS SECTORS, THIS WILL BE A HUGE STORY. LISA:

THE QUESTION ABOUT DILUTION.

THE COMPANY SCALES THE AI CLOUD PLATFORM TO MEET UNPRECEDENTED DEMAND. ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING,

DEMAND. ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING, PARAMOUNT LAUNCHING A HOSTILE TAKEOVER BID FOR WARNER BROS.

DISCOVERY. IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MORE THAN $40 BILLION EQUITY COMMITMENT FROM INVESTORS, INCLUDING SAUDI ARABIA'S PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND AND JARED KUSHNER'S INFINITY PARTNERS. WATCH THIS SPACE FOR WHICH POSES A BIGGER CONFLICT OF INTEREST. THE BRIDGE LOAN FROM THE BANKS OR A COHORT THAT INCLUDES PRESIDENT TRUMP'S

SON-IN-LAW AND SOME OF THE MIDDLE EASTERN ALLIES. ANNMARIE:

THIS IS INCREDIBLY COLLOCATED. WARNER BROS.

HAS 10 DAYS AS A FINAL DATE TO PARAMOUNT.

NETFLIX WILL HAVE FOUR DAYS. THIS COULD DRAG ON AND IT WILL DRAG ON INTO 2026. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS NOT WHO HAS THE BETTER DEAL AND FOR WHAT ASSETS.

IT IS WHO CAN ACTUALLY GET REGULATORY APPROVAL.

FOR NETFLIX, THE HUGE QUESTION IS ABOUT MARKET SHARE WHEN IT COMES TO STREAMING. FOR PARAMOUNT, I THINK THE QUESTION WILL BE ABOUT ALL THESE CHARACTERS INVOLVED.

YOU HAVE THREE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS, ALSO INFINITY PARTNERS.

LISA: THE OTHER GEOPOLITICAL NEWS, PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENING AN ADDITIONAL 5% TARIFF ON MEXICO OVER A WATER DISPUTE. THE PRESIDENT WARNING OF NEW LEVIES ON CANADIAN FERTILIZER AND INDIAN RICE AS THE SUPREME COURT CONSIDERS THE LEGALITY OF THE PRESIDENT'S SWEEPING GLOBAL TARIFFS. PRESIDENT TRUMP SANG IN A

TARIFFS. PRESIDENT TRUMP SANG IN A RECENT INTERVIEW HE'S INTERESTED IN POSSIBLY LOWERING TARIFFS FOR COST-OF-LIVING CONCERNS.

PRESIDENT TRUMP GRANTING NVIDIA PERMISSION TO SELL ITS H200 CHIPS TO CHINA FOR A 25% SURCHARGE.

IT ALLOWS NVIDIA TO POTENTIALLY MOVE BUSINESS BACK TO A KEY GLOBAL MARKET AND IS CONSIDERED A WIN IN ITS EFFORTS TO CURB CONTROLS. NVIDIA WROTE OFF ANY SALES TO

CONTROLS. NVIDIA WROTE OFF ANY SALES TO CHINA IN ITS RELEASE. MANDEEP: WE HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH IN TERMS OF NVIDIA'S ABILITY TO SELL TO CHINESE CUSTOMERS. IN THIS CASE I THINK THIS IS A

CUSTOMERS. IN THIS CASE I THINK THIS IS A NEWER VARIATION OF THAT H20 THEY WERE ALLOWED TO SELL IN THE PAST. IT IS NOT THE LATEST BLACKWELL CHIP.

THE PAST. IT IS NOT THE LATEST BLACKWELL CHIP.

THEY ARE STILL MANAGING TO SELL AN OLDER VERSION OF THE CHIP, BUT THE CHINESE MARKET IS HUGE. JENSEN SAID IT'S A $50 BILLION OPPORTUNITY. TO PUT THAT IN CONTEXT, THE

OPPORTUNITY. TO PUT THAT IN CONTEXT, THE HYPERSCALERS WILL MAKE UP ALMOST $160 BILLION IN REVENUE FOR NVIDIA NEXT YEAR. OVER A $300 BILLION BASE.

THERE ARE THREE BIG HYPERSCALERS IN THE CHINESE REGION. IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SELL UP TO

REGION. IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SELL UP TO $50 BILLION, THAT WILL BE HUGE IN TERMS OF WHAT IT MEANS FOR NVIDIA'S TOPLINE GROWTH AND THAT IS WHY THEY ARE KEYED TO SELL ANYTHING THEY CAN WHEN IT COMES TO THE CHINA MARKET.

ANNMARIE: WHEN IT COMES TO THE SHARE PRICE, ISN'T REACTING TO THE THINK THEY DON'T THINK THEY WILL SELL THAT MUCH IN THE FINANCIAL TIMES TALKING ABOUT BUYERS NEEDING TO GO THROUGH A LENGTHY APPROVAL PROFITS -- PROCESS AND THEY HAVE TO USE NVIDIA? MANDEEP:

THAT IS WHERE THE BACK-AND-FORTH THAT HAS BEEN THERE IN THE PAST WHEN THEY WERE ABLE TO SELL EACH 2 -- H20 AND THEN COMPLETELY TAKE IT OUT OF THEIR GUIDE. THERE IS THE SECURITY ASSET THAT COMES INTO PLAY IN TERMS OF WHAT ARE THE CHINESE LLM'S

CURRENTLY USING. IT IS NOT A DONE DEAL BUT FROM

CURRENTLY USING. IT IS NOT A DONE DEAL BUT FROM AN NVIDIA PERSPECTIVE THERE IS NO DOUBT IT WILL BE A POSITIVE IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SELL TO THE CHINESE MARKET.

THEY HAVE TO FIND BIG HYPERSCALERS AS NEW CUSTOMERS.

THEY HAVE ALL THE ONES OUTSIDE OF CHINA.

THE QUESTION IS, YOU KNOW, THAT IS WHERE THE LLM COMPANIES ARE IN CHINA AND THEY WANT TO SELL TO THEM.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THEY CAN FOLLOW THROUGH AND SELL AND SCALE WHICH IS WHAT THEY WANT TO DO. LISA:

MANDEEP SINGH, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

CHINA'S TOP LEADERS ARE ON ALERT FOR POTENTIAL FLAREUP AS THEY DRAW UP ECONOMIC PLANS FOR NEXT YEAR.

JOINING US TO DISCUSS IS ESWAR PRASAD AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTE. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING

INSTITUTE. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US. I WANT TO START WITH A TRADE

WITH US. I WANT TO START WITH A TRADE WAR IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS RECENT MOVE BY THE UNITED STATES FOR NVIDIA TO BE ALLOWED TO SELL ITS H200 CHIPS TO CHINA.

DO WE HAVE A SENSE OF WHERE BUYING THOSE CHIPS FITS INTO CHINA'S PLANS AS THEY TURN MORE INWARD AND RELY ON DOMESTIC CHAMPIONS? ESWAR: WE ARE LOOKING AT COMPETITION

CHAMPIONS? ESWAR: WE ARE LOOKING AT COMPETITION IN ONE AREA WHICH WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE BETWEEN THE U.S.

AND CHINA, TECHNOLOGY. THE CHINESE COMPANY -- GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN KEEN ON UPGRADING ITS MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND TRYING TO DOMINATE THE HIGH-TECHNOLOGY SECTORS.

SOLAR PANELS, ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND NOW AI. FOR THE U.S.

IT IS A DICEY STRATEGY RIGHT NOW.

ON ONE HAND YOU DO NOT WANT TO LOSE ACCESS TO THE CHINESE MARKET OR DENY CHINA SOME OF THESE CHIPS BECAUSE THAT MEANS IT GIVES CHINA MUCH MORE INCENTIVE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH ITS DOMESTIC INNOVATION STRATEGY.

AT THE SAME TIME PROVIDING THESE CHIPS DOES MAKE IT A LOT EASIER FOR THEM TO MOVE FORWARD IN TERMS OF THE INNOVATION.

THE TRUMP TEAM IS BETTING THAT THIS WILL HELP NVIDIA GAIN SIGNIFICANT MARKET SHARE. WHETHER THAT IS A DURABLE INCREASE IN MARKET SHARE OR NVIDIA CAN HOLD ON WHEN CHINA COMPETES WITH ALL THE STATE RESOURCES BEHIND IT IS THE KEY QUESTION. IN THE SHORT TERM, NVIDIA'S

QUESTION. IN THE SHORT TERM, NVIDIA'S REVENUES WILL TAKE A POSITIVE BOUNCE AND THERE WILL BE SOME REVENUES FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT.

I'M NOT SURE THIS IS GOING TO SELL -- SETTLE U.S.

NATIONAL INSURANCE VERY WELL. LISA:

THE BELT AND RODE WE HAVE HEARD JENSEN HUANG TALK ABOUT THAT CHINA WOULD CREATE A SYSTEM OF DEPENDENCE ON SOME OF ITS TECHNOLOGIES AND GOODS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, HOW FAR HAS CHINA GOTTEN IN CREATING THAT TYPE OF ECOSYSTEM WHERE DOMESTIC ECONOMIES NEARBY RELY ON CHINA BOTH TECHNOLOGICALLY AND BEYOND THAT? ESWAR: IN TERMS OF TRADE AND FINANCE,

CHINA MADE A LOT OF PROGRESS THROUGH THE BELT AND ROAD.

AT THE MOMENT I THINK THERE IS STILL A SENSE THAT CHINA IS ABLE TO NOT INNOVATE FUNDAMENTALLY THE TAKE EXISTING INNOVATIONS OUT OF THE U.S. AND COMMERCIALIZE THEM AND SCALE THEM UP AND AWAY -- IN A WAY THAT IS WORLD BEATING.

THAT IS THE ADVANTAGE THAT IS RELEVANT IN TERMS OF INCREASING THE SCOPE OF ITS TECHNOLOGICAL INFLUENCE WITHIN ASIA.

IT IS HAPPENING A LITTLE SLOWLY AND THE FACT THAT THE U.S.

IS RECEDING FOR THE REGION AND MANY COUNTRIES FEEL THAT THEY CANNOT DISENGAGE FROM CHINA BECAUSE THEY DON'T HAVE AN ALTERNATIVE TRUSTWORTHY PARTNER IS HELPING CHINA IN THE PROCESS.

ANNMARIE: WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE, ESPECIALLY NOT GIVEN EMMANUEL MACRON WAS JUST THERE AND TALKING ABOUT HOW IT'S UNSTABLE, DO YOU SEE CHINA NOT JUST DUMPING MORE IN EUROPE BUT HAVE TO INVEST MORE IN EUROPE BECAUSE THE WALLS HAVE GONE UP AND IT'S BEEN SO COMPLICATED WITH THE UNITED STATES? ESWAR:

THE WALLS ARE GOING UP FOR CHINESE EXPORTS AND THEY WILL GO UP MORE.

CHINA IS NOW VERY UNBALANCED WITH MOST OF THE GROWTH COMING FROM THE SUPPLY SIDE OF THE ECONOMY, WHICH IN NORMAL TIMES IS NOT A BAD THING BUT DOMESTIC DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING UP.

EVERY PASSING DAY AND QUARTER THERE IS MORE CAPACITY IN CHINA THAT NEEDS TO BE EXPORTED. THE U.S.

HAS PUT UP WALLS TO DIRECT CHINESE EXPORTS TO THE U.S..

EUROPE AND OTHER COUNTRIES THAT NEED EXPORTS THEMSELVES TO BOLSTER THEIR ECONOMIES WILL FACE THE BRUNT.

CHINA IS VERY COGNIZANT OF THIS ISSUE.

THE FACT THAT WALLS ARE GOING UP SO THEY'RE TRYING TO BEFRIEND COUNTRIES BY INVESTING IN THOSE COUNTRIES.

THIS POSES AN EXCESS ESSENTIAL RISK FOR SOME -- EXISTENTIAL RISK FOR SOME OF THESE COUNTRIES IN THE HIGH-TECHNOLOGY SECTORS BECAUSE THEY GET SWALLOWED UP BY THESE CHINESE INVESTMENTS AND BECOME -- AND FIND IT DIFFICULT TO COMPETE WITH CHINESE FIRMS OPERATING ON THEIR OWN SOIL.

THAT IS THE DIRECTION THE CHINESE ARE TAKING A FEW COMPANIES ARE ABLE TO RESIST. ANNMARIE:

A LOT OF TIMES THE UNITED STATES SAYS THEY ARE PUSHING OTHER COUNTRIES TO DO THIS, DO NOT COMBAT BUT HAVE A COMPETITION WITH CHINA. WHAT KIND OF MESSAGE IS THE U.S.

ENDING AT THE SAME TIME WHEN THEY ARE BASICALLY SHOWING THEY WANT TO PUT TRADE AND ECONOMIC CONCERNS HIGHER THAN NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP ALLOWING NVIDIA TO SELL THE H200 AND BEIJING? -- INTO BEIJING? ESWAR:

POLICY MAKERS WITH -- POINT TOWARDS U.S.

HYPOCRISY PUTTING UP BARRIERS TO CHINESE IMPORTS, TRYING TO LIMIT EXPORTS AND GET THE OTHER COUNTRIES TO DO THE SAME THING WHILE HE WAS SEEMS VERY WILLING TO TRADE OFF MANY ISSUES THE U.S. CLAIMS SHOULD BE VERY IMPORTANT, INCLUDING NATIONAL

U.S. CLAIMS SHOULD BE VERY IMPORTANT, INCLUDING NATIONAL SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS FOR SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC GAIN.

THIS DECISION IS A PRIME EXAMPLE OF THAT.

THE MESSAGE THE REST OF THE WORLD'S HEARING FROM THE U.S.

IS ONE OF GREAT INCONSISTENCY AND SOME DEGREE OF SHORT-TERM VIEWING OF THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC NATIONAL SECURITY INTEREST AS THE PRIME DRIVERS OF U.S. POLICY.

LISA: YOU AND I HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE REAL QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THE U.S.

WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS DOMINANCE GLOBALLY AS A RESULT OF SOME OF THE SHIFTS AND CONCERNS YOU TO SPEAK ABOUT.

YOU HAVE SEEN SOME SELLOFFS ARBITRARILY IN THE DOLLAR, MOMENTARILY, NOT ARBITRARILY. HAVE YOU SEEN A SUSTAINED SHIFT AWAY FROM THE U.S. FINANCIAL SYSTEM BY SOME OF THE TRADE PARTNERS OF YOURS? ESWAR: NO. THE U.S.

REMAINS THE DOMINANT ECONOMY AND DOMINANT FINANCIAL MARKET IN THE WORLD. IN TERMS OF FINAL CONSUMPTION DEMAND IT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT. RELATIVELY SPEAKING AND ITS INSTITUTION FRAMEWORK. WHICH HAS BEEN ERODED AS WE

INSTITUTION FRAMEWORK. WHICH HAS BEEN ERODED AS WE SPEAK BUT OVERALL THE PACKAGE IS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY COUNTRY TO COMPETE. DESPITE ALL THE CONCERNS ABOUT THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT AND THE U.S.

THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT AND THE U.S.

INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND SO ON, WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AS FOREIGN INVESTORS HAVE CONTINUED TO BUY TREASURIES AND ASSETS, INCLUDING FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS. FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS AND EVERYONE AROUND THE WORLD IS TRYING TO DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR. THEY ARE DOING SO AT THE MARGIN.

THE DOLLAR. THEY ARE DOING SO AT THE MARGIN.

THERE IS NOT MUCH OF AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE U.S.

AND WE SEE THAT IN INVESTOR BEHAVIOR CLEARLY. LISA:

ESWAR PRASAD, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US THIS MORNING.

WONDERFUL INSIGHT AS FAR AS TALKING JP MORGAN SAYS THEY EXPECT EMERGING-MARKET EQUITIES TO OUTPERFORM DEVELOPED MARKETS IN 2026. BRIGHT SPOTS ELSEWHERE. ANNMARIE:

IN 2026. BRIGHT SPOTS ELSEWHERE. ANNMARIE:

YOU LOOK AT PLACES IN ASIA AND CHINA WHEN IT COMES TO THE FACT THAT JUST THIS WEEK THEY BASICALLY HAD A FORMER NVIDIA EXECUTIVE LAUNCH NAI COMPANY. THEY ARE PUTTING EVERYTHING THEY CAN INTO THE HOMEGROWN CHIPMAKERS. LISA:

TALKING ABOUT A SECOND YEAR OF OUTPERFORMANCE AFTER YEARS AND YEARS OF UNDERPERFORMANCE. LET'S GET AN UPDATE ON STORIES ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.

YAHAIRA: WE ARE SEEING CVS SHARES RISING 3% OF THE PREMARKET. THE HEALTH CARE COMPANY RAISED ITS PROFIT EARNINGS AND SAID IT WOULD RISE IN 2026 AS A SIGN OF HOPE AS IT NAVIGATES A TURBULENT RETAIL ENVIRONMENT, PLUS GOVERNMENT SCRUTINY ACROSS THE HEALTH CARE SCRUTINY FROM VACCINES TO INSURANCE.

MICHAEL BURRY SAYS HE HOLDS A SIZABLE POSITION IN FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC COMMON STOCK AND BELIEVES OF RELISTING HIS NEARLY UPON US. HE BECAME BULLISH ON THE COMPANY'S AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ELECTION AND SAYS REGULATORS MUST EAST -- MUST EAST CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR

AN IPO TO OCCUR. THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS CONTINUE THEIR PUSH FOR THE PLAYOFFS AFTER DEFEATING THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES TO WRAP UP WEEK 14 OF THE NFL SEASON.

PORTA BECK JALEN HURTS STRUGGLED, COMMITTING FIVE TURNOVERS INCLUDING A GAME ENDING INTERCEPTION AS THE EAGLES DROPPED THEIR THIRD STRAIGHT GAME. LISA:

THANK YOU SO MUCH. OF NEXT, PREPARING FOR THE FED DECISION.

>> I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THREE CUTS STARTING PROBABLY THIS WEEK AND THEN TWO MORE INTO NEXT YEAR. THE U.S.

IS IN A BIT OF A WEAKER SPOT. LISA: SAM ZIEF JOINS US NEXT.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ." GOOD MORNING.

♪ LISA: WE ARE LOOKING AT A MARKET LOOKING TO THE FED MEETING AND A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THE FED WILL SIGNAL THEY ARE GOING TO CUT NEXT YEAR. A BIT OF AN OPTIMISTIC TONE AND EQUITY FUTURES. BONDS FLUCTUATING AFTER A

EQUITY FUTURES. BONDS FLUCTUATING AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SELLOFFS THE LEFT DEALS AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS GOING BACK TO SEPTEMBER. PREPARING FOR THE FED DECISION.

>> I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THREE CUTS STARTING PROBABLY THIS WEEK AND THEN TWO MORE INTO NEXT YEAR IF YOU LOOK AT THE 12 MONTH TIME HORIZON. THAT COULD BE JUSTIFIED.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS FISCAL SPENDING INCREASING, I WOULD SAY AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE U.S. IS A BIT IN A WEAKER SPOT.

INFLATION REMAINS THE TOPIC SO WE DO NOT SEE INFLATION COMING DOWN. LISA: MARKETS EYEING THE DOT PLOT AS

DOWN. LISA: MARKETS EYEING THE DOT PLOT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CUT TOMORROW.

SAM ZIEF WRITING, "MARKETS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PRICING THE NUMBER OF CUTS. WE ANTICIPATE THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL LOWER INTEREST RATES WITH A TOTAL OF 50 BASIS POINT CUTS BY THE END OF 2026." SAM JOINS US NOW.

I WANT TO JUST START WITH WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 12 WEEKS IN BOND YIELDS ON THE LONGER END.

WHY DO YOU THINK THERE HAS BEEN SUCH A HUGE INCREASE? SAM:

IT SEEMS LIKE IT STARTED AFTER HALLOWEEN, AFTER THE FED MEETING. THE FED DID BECOME A LITTLE

MEETING. THE FED DID BECOME A LITTLE MORE HAWKISH AFTER ITS LAST MEETING, SIGNALING THE BARDI FURTHER CUTS WILL BE HIGHER AND WE CAN TALK ABOUT HOW THAT LOOKS AND 2026. GLOBAL SOVEREIGN BOND YIELDS ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED. WE HAVE SEEN SELLOFFS NOT ONLY IN JAPAN BUT IN THE U.K. AND AROUND THE BUDGET.

THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE LONG END OF THE U.S.

BOND MARKET AT THE SAME TIME. LISA:

IS THIS BOND VIGILANTES SAYING THAT YIELDS ARE TOO HIGH OR PEOPLE SEE IT AS PERSISTENT STICKY AROUND THE WORLD? SAM:

CENTRAL BANKS ARE GETTING TO THE END OF THEIR CUTTING CYCLES.

THE FED MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE TO GET THERE BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE MONEY MARKET CURVES ACROSS MOST OF DEVELOPED ECONOMIES OUTSIDE THE U.S. AND THE U.K., THEY ARE ALL UPWARD SLOPING NOW. THEY HAVE ALL NORMALIZED RATES, NEAR NEUTRAL, AND THE MARKET IS SAYING THERE IS NO MOVES COMING SOON. BUT IF THERE IS ANOTHER MOVE

SOON. BUT IF THERE IS ANOTHER MOVE BECAUSE GROWTH LOOKS OK, IT IS PROBABLY HIGHER, NOT LOWER.

LISA: IT SEEMS LIKE MARKETS HAVE COME ALONG WITH WHAT YOU BELIEVE FOR NEXT YEAR.

HAVE PRICED IN THE SCENARIO WE WILL ONLY CUT BY 50 BASIS POINTS IN 2026 BASED ON THE YIELD MOVE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS? SAM: THEY ARE A LITTLE MORE PRICED THAN WE ARE EXPECTING. I SEE THE TERMINAL RATE PRICED CLOSER TO 3% AND WE THINK WE GET DOWN TO 3.5%, NOT MASSIVE DIFFERENCES BUT A BIT. IT'S ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET.

THE U.S. LABOR MARKET IS SOFT RIGHT NOW, RELATIVELY WEAK YOU MIGHT EVEN SAY.

AS YOU MOVE THROUGH 2026 HE LOOKS STABLE, RESILIENT, EVEN IMPROVES AND THAT WILL DETERMINE THE FED CUTTING PATH.

THAT IS WHAT WE WILL HEAR THIS WEEK. THEY WILL CUT THIS WEEK.

IT WILL TAKE FURTHER WEAKNESS IN THE LABOR MARKET TO GET THEM TO MOVE A LOT MORE. THAT IS NOT SOMETHING WE EXPECT.

THAT IS SOMETHING INVESTORS HAVE TO MAKE A BIG CALL ON FOR 2026. ANNMARIE: WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A CHANGING

2026. ANNMARIE: WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A CHANGING OF THE GUARD AND JAY POWELL IS A LAME-DUCK AND EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR THE NEXT NOMINEE. SAM: TWO OBSERVATIONS.

THIS IS A COMMITTEE. A NEW CHAIR CAN BE HAWKISH OR DOVISH BUT IN GENERAL THEY HAVE TO CONVINCE THE ENTIRE COMMITTEE TO MOVE. IF YOU LOOK AT EVERYONE ACROSS THE COMMITTEE, WE CAN READ THEIR SPEECHES AND THEY ARE ALL PRETTY ACADEMIC AND PRETTY MUCH INTERPRETING THE DATA.

THAT SEEMS TO BE HOW THE MARKET IS INTERPRETING THIS.

THERE ARE NOT HUGE CHANGES IN MARKET PRICING FROM BEFORE MAY AND AFTER MAKE WHEN POWELL IS SUPPOSED TO GO.

THERE ARE NOT HUGE CHANGES. THE TERMINAL RATE PRICE IS AROUND 3% AND THAT IS CONSISTENT OR LITTLE MORE DOVISH THAN OUR ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS BUT VERY CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL CONSENSUS ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS.

IF THERE WAS HUGE PRICING OF THE MARKET ABOUT CONCERNS ABOUT HOW THE FED OUTLOOK WAS GOING TO EVOLVE, YOU WOULD EXPECT THAT TO BE MUCH MORE DOVISH THAN ANYONE'S CENTRAL ECONOMIC SCENARIO. IT IS ALL ABOUT THE LABOR

SCENARIO. IT IS ALL ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET AND THE GROWTH OUTLOOK. ANNMARIE:

WHY DO YOU THINK BOND INVESTORS TOLD TREASURY THEY WERE CONCERNED ABOUT A KEVIN HASSETT CHAIRMANSHIP? SAM:

WE HAVE LOOKED ON DAYS WERE MARKET OUT HAS SHIFTED IN TERMS OF WHO IS LIKELY THE NEXT CHAIR AND THEN LOOKED AT MARKET REACTIONS AROUND THIS CHANGING ODDS. WE DON'T SEE A HUGE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THAT IN ANY DIRECTION.

I WOULD ARGUE THAT IT'S REALLY ABOUT HOW THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EVOLVES AND WE CAN TALK ABOUT ALL THESE THINGS ALL DAY LONG BUT WILL BE LOOK AT WHAT IS DRIVING MARKET PRICING ACROSS THE CURVE COME ACROSS THE FX MARKETS AND MARKETS IN GENERAL, WE THINK IT IS THE MARKET FUNDAMENTALS. LISA:

DO YOU EXPECT DOLLAR STRENGTHENING, NOT DOLLAR WE GETTING? -- DOLLAR WEAKENING? SAM:

GETTING? -- DOLLAR WEAKENING? SAM:

WE DON'T SEE THE DOLLAR SET UP FOR THE SAME TYPE OF YEAR AS IT HAD FOR 2026. THE REAL DRIVER HAS BEEN ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE U.S.

AND THE REST OF THE WORLD. GROWTH CONVERGENCE, INTEREST RATE CONVERGENCE. IN 2026, WE DON'T THINK YOU

RATE CONVERGENCE. IN 2026, WE DON'T THINK YOU WILL GET ANY MORE OF THAT ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE REALLY.

UNLESS THE ECONOMY ENDS OF WEAKER THAN WE EXPECT, THE DOLLAR IS AT LEAST STABLE AND THAT IS HOW WE ARE INVESTING AROUND THE STABLE DOLLAR AND THE RISK THAT THE ECONOMY ACCELERATES MORE THAN WE EXPECT WE COULD ABSOLUTELY GET A STRONGER DOLLAR. LISA:

STRONGER DOLLAR. LISA: SAM ZIEF, REALLY APPRECIATE IT AS THE MARKET DOES EXPECT A 95% CHANCE THE FED WILL CUT TOMORROW.

HEADING INTO 2026, THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONLY TWO RATE CUTS DOWN FROM THREE A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. ANNMARIE:

YOU HAVE TO IGNORE THE NOISE COMING OUT OF WASHINGTON.

IT COMES DOWN TO ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THE LABOR MARKET, WHICH IS WHY NEXT WEEK'S NONFARM PAYROLLS WILL BE SO IMPORTANT. IT'S AFTER THE FED MEETS ABLE

SO IMPORTANT. IT'S AFTER THE FED MEETS ABLE TO GET SOME REAL CLEAR CUT DATA ON IN THE LABOR MARKET. LISA:

NOTHING HAS BEEN TO CLEAR-CUT. WE GOT SOME SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM THAT CAME IN A TOUCH HIGHER EARLY THIS MORNING.

WE GET JOB OPENINGS IN THE QUITS RATE COMING OUT AT 10:00 A.M. EASTERN. UP NEXT, MICHELLE WEAVER JOINS

A.M. EASTERN. UP NEXT, MICHELLE WEAVER JOINS US. JENNIFER RIE AND JONATHAN

US. JENNIFER RIE AND JONATHAN PRINGLE AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO BOARD ROOM DRAMA WITH THE MEDIA SPACE VERY MUCH FRONT AND FOCUS AS WE LOOK TO THE AI TRADE AND PEOPLE DISCUSS THE BUBBLE AND WHETHER WE HAVE OVERUSED THAT GOING INTO 2026.THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE."

♪ >> THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL, THINGS LOOK GREAT RIGHT NOW.

>> WE ARE ENTERING THIS PHASE OF AI APPLICATION.

>> AI IS NOT A BUBBLE, IT IS A BOOM.

>> AI WILL CHANGE THE WORLD BUT WHO WILL BE THE WINNERS?

>> YOU CAN LOOK AT EITHER SIDE OF THE COIN ON THE DATA AND BE BULLISH OR BEARISH.

>> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE -- -- LISA: JOBS DATA ON DECK WITH JOLTS LATER THIS MORNING. MORE DETAILS IN THE BOARD BATTLE AS THEY WAGE WAR OVER DISCOVERY AND A QUESTION ABOUT

BIG TECH AS PRESIDENT TRUMP OPENS THE DOOR TO HIGH-TECH CHIP SALES TO CHINA. NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS GOING FROM ACCESS TO POTENTIALLY LOSING OUT.

ANNMARIE: AND CHINA HAS RESPONDED THEY WILL LOOK PIECE BY PIECE DECIDING IT MAY BE WHICH FIRMS CAN GET ACCESS TO THIS CHIP AND DOESN'T EVEN MATTER BECAUSE CHINA MIGHT SHRUG IT OFF EVEN IF THEY ARE ALLOWED TO BUY THESE LIKE THEY DID WITH THE H 20. THE SIGNAL IS CLEAR THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS PUTTING TRADE AND ECONOMIC CONCERNS OVER NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS WHICH IN THIS SECTOR IS

DEFINITELY A PIVOT. LISA:

RIGHT NOW ARE -- RIGHT NOW PEOPLE ARE LOOKING TO THE AI MELT-UP IN 2025. WE'S ARE THAT FROM ED YARDENI SAYING HE DOES SEE AN UNDER WEIGHTING OF BIG TECH AS WARRANTED AS EVERYONE IS A TECH COMPANY.

THAT IS WHAT WE HEARD FROM SARAH HUNT EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE OUTPERFORMANCE WE'VE SEEN IN THE RUSSELL 2000.

ANNMARIE: SHE TALKS ABOUT HOW TECH COMPANIES HAVE A LOT OF CAPITAL AND A LOT OF ASSETS.

IN 2026 WHEN EVERYONE SAYS THEY WANT TO SEE THE BROADENING OUT IN AI, NOT WHERE THE USE CASES ARE IN WHICH INDUSTRIES ARE ADAPTING. IF THEY DO NOT SEE THE USE

ADAPTING. IF THEY DO NOT SEE THE USE CASES AND ADAPTATION OF AI, WHAT IS ALL THIS MONEY FOR?

ANOTHER KEY THING IS GOING TO BE THE GAP BETWEEN THE ELECTRICITY AND ENERGY NEED FOR THESE DATA CENTERS AND IF THIS MISMATCH CAN NARROW. LISA: PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT WHAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE RESPONSES GOING TO BE TO ALL OF THESE DYNAMICS.

THAT MEETING IN WASHINGTON, D.C. KICKING OFF AND WILL END TOMORROW WITH THE PRESS CONFERENCE WITH JEROME POWELL.

IN MARKETS REALLY QUIET IN RANGE BOUND AHEAD OF THE DECISION, HEAD OF DEALS WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER WITH WARNER BROS. BEING A BID UP BY NETFLIX AND

WARNER BROS. BEING A BID UP BY NETFLIX AND PARAMOUNT. WE SAW HUGE RISE IN 10 YEAR

PARAMOUNT. WE SAW HUGE RISE IN 10 YEAR YIELDS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. NEAR THE HIGHEST LEVELS BACK TO THE END OF SEPTEMBER. WE MAINTAIN THAT LEVEL AFTER TOMORROW'S FED MEETING GIVEN THE FACT THE MARKET RIGHT NOW IS STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST TWO RATE CUTS NEXT YEAR.

COMING UP WE HAVE THE JOLTS JOBS DATA AS WELL AS THE DATA TOMORROW OF THE EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX HEAD OF THE FED MEETING.

COMING UP MICHELLE WEAVER OF MORGAN STANLEY WITH STOCKS SURGING, JENNIFER REE OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ON POSSIBLE ANTITRUST CONCERNS SURROUNDING A DEAL FOR WARNER BROS. AND JONATHAN PINGLE FREE THE

BROS. AND JONATHAN PINGLE FREE THE FOMC MEETING. DOCTOR FLAT AHEAD OF -- STOCKS

FOMC MEETING. DOCTOR FLAT AHEAD OF -- STOCKS ARE FLAT. MICHELLE WEAVER OF MORGAN

ARE FLAT. MICHELLE WEAVER OF MORGAN STANLEY WRITING "THIS IS A BULLISH SET UP FOR STOCKS LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS ACCELERATING EARNINGS REVISIONS FED CUTS -- FED CUTS BASED ON MODERATE LAGGING LABOR WEAKNESS." IT SEEMS TO BE PREDICATED ON

WEAKNESS." IT SEEMS TO BE PREDICATED ON THE IDEA THAT TWO RATE CUTS COME WITH STRONG GROWTH.

WHAT GIVES YOU CONFIDENCE WE WILL GET STRONG GROWTH DESPITE THE WEAKENING WE HAVE SEEN? MICHELLE:

WE THINK WE HAVE SEEN MORE SOFTNESS IN THE FALL SO I THINK WHEN WE GET THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS WE ARE GOING TO SEE MORE SOFTNESS BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO GET ONE OF THOSE NONLINEAR CONCERNING RISES AND UNEMPLOYMENT DATA.

WE THINK THE SET UP IS CONSTRUCTIVE IN THE NEXT YEAR FOR BROADENING EARNINGS. IT'S OUT -- IF I THINK ABOUT THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS IT IS ALL BUT ABOUT THE LARGE-CAP STOCKS COME ABOUT THOSE EXPOSED TO THE AI TRADE.

WE HAVE SEEN A LOT MORE WEAKNESS UNDER THE SURFACE FOR THE RUSSELL 2000. EARNINGS GROWTH HAS BEEN FLAT TO NEGATIVE FOR MUCH OF THE STOCKS.

WE SAW THAT LAST QUARTER WITH NAMES GROWING 8% AND WE ARE STARTING TO SEE A CONSTRUCTIVE SET UP FOR THAT BROADENING THAT COMBINED WITH THE FED THAT IS EASING -- THAT IS EASING BUT WITHOUT A CONCERNING SPIKE IS A SET UP FOR STOCKS. LISA:

SOME OF THESE SMALLER COMPANIES ARE DEPLOYING AI TOOLS TO BE MORE EFFICIENT AND PRESERVE THEIR MARGINS AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY YOU MIGHT SEE IT OUTPERFORMANCE? MICHELLE:

I THINK AI IS PART OF THAT STORY.

NEXT YEAR WILL BE THE YEAR OF THE AI ADOPTER.

IT HAS TAKEN COMPANY YEARS TO RE-TRAIN THEIR EMPLOYEES TO GET AI DEPLOYED. OUR TECH TEAM HAS A GREAT CIO

AI DEPLOYED. OUR TECH TEAM HAS A GREAT CIO SURVEY THEY THINK BY THE END OF THIS YEAR 60% OF COMPANIES WILL HAVE ONE AI PRODUCT IN THE FIELD AND THAT WILL RISE TO 80% BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE WAVE OF ADOPTION FLOW THROUGH THE MARKET. ANNMARIE:

CAN YOU SEE THAT WAVE OF ADOPTION WITHOUT LAYOFFS?

MICHELLE: I THINK YOU CAN.

AROUND THE MARGIN YOU MAY SEE SOME COMPANIES DO LAYOFFS BUT IT WILL BE AN INCREMENTAL STORY. A LOT OF THE MESSAGING I HAVE HEARD IS WE WILL KEEP HEADCOUNT FLAT BUT WE WILL SEE MORE GROWTH , WE WILL DO MORE WITH THE SAME NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES THANKS TO AI. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK AI CAN CONTINUE WITH THE ENERGY DEMAND IS NOT THERE ARE ABLE TO MEET THAT DEMAND? MICHELLE: IS A TRICKY SET UP AROUND THE

DEMAND? MICHELLE: IS A TRICKY SET UP AROUND THE POWER WORLD. OUR TEAM HAS A GREAT MONITOR

POWER WORLD. OUR TEAM HAS A GREAT MONITOR WHERE WE TAKE OUR SEMICONDUCTOR ANALYST AND SAY WHAT IS THE POWER NEEDED FOR THAT AND HOW MUCH POWER WILL BE NEEDED IN THE U.S.? THROUGH 2028 WE ARE OR CASTING

THE U.S.? THROUGH 2028 WE ARE OR CASTING A 47 GIGAWATTS SHORTFALL THROUGH THE TRADITIONAL GRID INTERCONNECT OF POWER. THAT IS 10 TIMES THE POWER CONSUMED BY NEW YORK CITY. THERE ARE INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS THAT CAN APPLY TO THIS. ANNMARIE:

WE ARE 10 NEW YORK CITY'S SHORT. MICHELLE: YES.

FOR THINGS LIKE NATURAL GAS TURBINES, THOSE ARE APART FROM THE INTERCONNECT PROCESS. BITCOIN CONVERSIONS ARE INTERESTING. SOME OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE

INTERESTING. SOME OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REALIZED THAT THE POWER THEY ARE SITTING ON IS MORE VALUABLE THAN SOME OF THE UNDERLYING BUSINESS.

WE THINK THERE ARE 20 GIGAWATTS THERE IN THE NUCLEAR IS THE LAST ONE IS MORE POLITICALLY CHALLENGING BUT WE MAY SEE NUCLEAR FOR THAT PROBLEM. LISA: BITCOIN CONVERSIONS SITES.

ARE YOU SEEING PEOPLE THAT PREVIOUSLY MIND BITCOIN ANNOUNCING THE GAINS THEY ARE TRANSFERRING THAT TO FUEL FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. IS THIS NOT THE DEATH OF THE

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. IS THIS NOT THE DEATH OF THE BITCOIN TRADE BY THE SHIFTING IN TERMS OF WHERE THE ENTHUSIASMS GO THAT HAS BROADER MARKET IMPLICATIONS? MICHELLE:

I WOULD NOT SAY DOES THE DEATH OF THE BITCOIN TRADE.

THERE WERE BITCOIN MINERS THAT AMASSED A TON OF ENERGY TO DO BITCOIN MINING. THEY ESSENTIALLY WERE SITTING

BITCOIN MINING. THEY ESSENTIALLY WERE SITTING ON A GOLD RUSH. WE HAVE SO MUCH POWER, THESE HYPERSCALERS NEED POWER AND ARE ABLE TO PAY A HUGE PREMIUM, LET'S JUST SELLOFF THE POWER. LISA: A FASCINATING TREND.

WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT DEALS IN AI AND THE TECH SPACE AS WELL AS THE MEDIA SPACE AND BEYOND.

I WONDER HOW THAT PLAYS INTO SOME OF YOUR FORECAST. IS THAT

A POSITIVE THING OR A CATALYST FOR WINNERS AND LOSERS THAT WERE DIFFERENTIATE THE WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE INVESTING SPACE IN 2026? MICHELLE: IT IS A VERY POSITIVE THING FOR US. WE THINK YOU WILL SEE STRONG M&A INTO NEXT YEAR.

US. WE THINK YOU WILL SEE STRONG M&A INTO NEXT YEAR.

A LOT OF THE HESITATION NEXT YEAR WAS AROUND THE PUBLIC POLICY FRONT, WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON TARIFFS AND THE REGULATORY FRONT. HOW QUICKLY WE WILL YOU SEE

FRONT. HOW QUICKLY WE WILL YOU SEE DE-REGULATION? NOW WE ARE GOING INTO NEXT YEAR

DE-REGULATION? NOW WE ARE GOING INTO NEXT YEAR THAT WE HAVE MORE CLARITY ON THAT PICTURE WE WILL SEE SOME OF THAT CORPORATE RISK TAKING MORE AGGRESSIVENESS ON THE M&A FRONT. LISA: AT A CERTAIN POINT IS THE YEAR

FRONT. LISA: AT A CERTAIN POINT IS THE YEAR OF THE ADOPTER RATHER THAN THE YEAR OF THE AI TECH INNOVATOR DISADVANTAGE THE UNITED STATES OVER THE REST OF THE WORLD AS WE SEE JP MORGAN COME OUT THIS MORNING AND SAY THEY SEE THE EMERGING EQUITY MARKET OUTPERFORMING THE DEVELOPED MARKET FOR ANOTHER YEAR AFTER YEARS OF UNDERPERFORMANCE?

MICHELLE: I THINK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT ADOPTION RAMP-UP IN THE BROADER DIFFUSION IS WHAT WILL HELP THE U.S. MARKET. THE RETURN STORY HAS BEEN SO CONCENTRATED ON THE ENABLERS SIDE SO AS WE SEE THE ADOPTER STORY BROUGHT AN OUT THAT WILL BE MORE CONSTRUCTIVE.

ON THE ENABLERS SIDE WE HAVE THAT ANNOUNCEMENT SO THEY'RE MORE GAINS TO BE HAD IN THE ENABLERS SIDE BUT I THINK IS A CONSTRUCTIVE SET UP. ANNMARIE: WHEN IT COMES TO THE REAL ECONOMY IS THE CONSUMER HOLDING UP? MICHELLE:

IT HAS BEEN TRICKY FOR THE CONSUMER.

WE HELD OUR CONSUMER CONFERENCE AND WE HAD OVER 100 COMPANIES IN ATTENDANCE AND GOT A GOOD READ ON THE CONSUMER.

ONE KEY TAKEAWAY IS THE K ECONOMY IS VERY MUCH IN PLACE.

WE ARE SEEING THE BIFURCATION BETWEEN HIGHER INCOME CONSUMERS AND LOWER INCOME CONSUMERS AND THAT IS REALLY WHAT COMPANIES ARE TALKING ABOUT. ANNMARIE: IS THAT WHAT MAKES THE FED MORE COMPLICATED NEXT YEAR? MICHELLE: I THINK THERE SOME COMPLICATION AND I WANT TO BRING US BACK TO THE ENERGY STORY WE WERE TALKING ABOUT. AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS ARE HUGE

TALKING ABOUT. AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS ARE HUGE AND THERE IS BEEN A LOT OF DISCUSSION AROUND IS THIS DEMAND FOR AI POWER STARTING TO WEIGH ON THE CONSUMER, BRINGING THOSE CONVERSATIONS TOGETHER. WE FOUND IN CERTAIN REGIONS THAT ACTIVITY IS PRESSURED CONSUMER ELECTRICITY BILLS.

IN THE MID ATLANTIC THOSE BILLS HAVE RISEN 18% FOR DATA CENTER ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED. LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US AND HAVE A WONDERFUL HOLIDAY SEASON.

WE DO NOT HAVE A SENSE OF THE CONSUMER AND WHICH WAY IT WILL BREAK THE OPTIMISM AND LEVEL OF IT DEPENDS ON WHETHER YOU SEE THE ONGOING STRENGTH. ANNMARIE: THERE IS OPTIMISM RIGHT NOW BECAUSE WE JUST HAD A STELLAR BLACK FRIDAY AND CYBER MONDAY.

IF YOU AT INFLATION DOESN'T IT LOOK AS ROSY?

THIS IS WHY YOU SAW THE RESULTS IN VIRGINIA AND NEW JERSEY.

THESE ARE CANDIDATES WHO RAN OUT AFFORDABILITY AND TALKED ABOUT ELECTRICITY PRICES. LISA: PRESIDENT TRUMP PENNSYLVANIA TALKING ABOUT JUST THAT. HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.

>> WE ARE SEEING CBS SHARES RIGHTS 2.3%.

-- CVS SHARES RISE 2.3%. IT IS A SIGN OF HOPE AS IT NAVIGATES A TURBULENT RETAIL ENVIRONMENT PLUS GOVERNMENT SCRUTINY ACROSS THE HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY FROM VACCINES TO INSURANCE. MEANWHILE'S APPLE'S CHIPPED IS

INSURANCE. MEANWHILE'S APPLE'S CHIPPED IS DENYING REPORTS HE IS LEAVING THE COMPANY.

TELLING STAFF IN A MEMO "I LOVE MY TEAM AND I LOVE MY JOB AT APPLE AND I DO NOT PLAN ON LEAVING ANYTIME SOON.

SENIOR EXECUTIVES AND KEY ENGINEERS LEAVING THE COMPANY.

GOOGLE IS WORKING TO CREATE TWO DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF AI POWERED SMART GLASSES TO COMPETE WITH EXISTING PRODUCTS FROM META-FEAR STEP THE COMPANY COLLABORATING WITH SAMSUNG IN THE HOPES OF CREATING A MORE REFINED PRODUCT THAT ITS PREVIOUS MODEL GOOGLE GLASS. THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.

LISA: UP NEXT MORNING CALLS PLUS JENNIFER REE OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ON POSSIBLE ANTITRUST CONCERNS RENTING A DEAL WITH WARNER BROS.. THAT IS NEXT.

♪ >> TO ME AI IS FOR REAL. YOU HAVE TO INVEST A LOT OF MONEY TO DO WHAT THIS PROPOSES TO DO, WHETHER IT IS THE DATA

CENTERS, WHETHER IT IS THE ANCILLARY SOFTWARE AND THE DESIGN CHANGES TO BE MADE. THE COMPANIES DOING IT ARE VERY WELL-POSITIONED POSITIONED IN TERMS OF THE BALANCE SHEET AND WHEN THEY BORROW MONEY IT IS BECAUSE THEY WOULD RATHER KEEP THE CASH ON THE BALANCE SHEET AND USE OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY.

LISA: THAT WAS JOHN STOLTZFUS AHEAD OF THE FED MEETING THAT BEGINS TODAY AND ENDS TOMORROW WITH A PRESS CONFERENCE WITH JEROME POWELL AS HE INDICATES WHAT HE SEES IN THE YEAR AHEAD. WE ARE SEEING A IN MARKETS A QUIET TONE AHEAD OF THAT MEETING , FLUCTUATING BETWEEN GAINS AND LOSSES AMID ALL OF BIG INDICES.

WE HAD SEEN RUSSELL 2000 OUTPERFORMANCE.

IN THE BOND SPACE IT GETS MORE INTERESTING BASED ON THE MOVES WE HAVE SEEN ON THE YIELD CURVE. WE ARE SEEING A TOUCH BIT HIGHER AFTER A SELLOFF LEAVING THOSE DEAL THE HIGHEST LEVELS GOING BACK TO SEPTEMBER. A NUMBER OF INVESTOR MEETINGS

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INCLUDING WELLS FARGO, TALKING ABOUT THE CONSUMER SEEING A SONG LEVEL OF PRINT -- SEEING A STRONG LEVEL OF CONSUMER SPENDING.

WAGES OUTPACING INFLATION FOR THE CUSTOMER BASE OF WELLS FARGO , NOT SCREAMING THIS DISTRESS. ANNMARIE:

IT SOUNDS ROSY AND OPTIMISTIC. EVEN A HOLIDAY SPENDING IS HIGHER WILL STOP THIS POINTS TO A SPECIALLY WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT WAGES OUTPACING INFLATION, THAT POINTS TO A BETTER 2026 THAN A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT, ESPECIALLY IN THIS ADMINISTRATION.

THE PRESIDENT IN PENNSYLVANIA BECAUSE AFFORDABILITY HAS BEEN TOP OF CONCERN IN POLLS AND A LOT OF THE RHETORIC WHEN YOU HEAR FROM RETAILERS. LISA:

A KEY QUESTION, DO YOU BELIEVE IN THE RE-ACCELERATION OF THE U.S. CONSUMER? TD COWEN RAISING ITS PRICE

U.S. CONSUMER? TD COWEN RAISING ITS PRICE TARGET ON WALMART TO $136, EXPECTING PROFIT GROWTH OUTPACED SALES GROWTH, THOSE SHARES UP .5%.

CITIGROUP LOWERING ITS TARGET ON NIKE CITING ONGOING CHALLENGES IN CHINA. GOLDMAN SACHS UPGRADING VIKING TO BUY CITING A LARGE BALANCE SHEET.

IF YOU ARE WONDERING WHERE IS JONATHAN FERRO COMPANY IS WITH LITTLE FERRO BUT HE IS ALSO ONE OF VIKING CRUISE. ANNMARIE:

I HIGHLY DOUBT THAT. LISA: MAY NEXT YEAR.

THE BIDDING BATTLE FOR WARNER BROS.

IS SITTING UP IN ANTITRUST CASE FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL STOP REPUBLICAN SENATOR MIKE LEE WRITING "BUCKLE UP FOR AN INTENSE ANTITRUST HEARING IN THE SENATE."

JENNIFER REE OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE JOINS US NOW.

THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. LET'S START WITH WHAT WE UNDERSTAND ABOUT THE REGULATORY BACKDROP OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION GIVEN MANY PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE REGULATION , A MORE FAVORABLE OUTLOOK ON TIEUPS AND BUSINESS.

DO YOU HAVE THIS SENSE ON DEALS THAT HAVE HAPPENED? JENNIFER:

ABSOLUTELY. IT IS A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AND THEY FLEW ME THROUGH A GROUP, THE NEW OFFICIALS APPOINTED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP.

IN THE BEGINNING THEY WERE TALKING REALLY TOUGH.

SOMETIMES WITH REMEDIES BUT FOR THE MOST PART THEY ARE NOT CHALLENGING THESE DEALS. AS YOU MENTIONED WHEN HE FIRST STARTED TO ASK ME THAT QUESTION, THERE IS A LOT MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE ADMINISTRATION WITH RESPECT TO ANTITRUST DECISIONS, PARTICULARLY M&A, THEN THERE HAS BEEN IN THE PAST. ANNMARIE: THE PRESIDENT SAID HE WILL BE SOMEWHAT INVOLVED. WHEN IT COMES TO ANTITRUST AND

SOMEWHAT INVOLVED. WHEN IT COMES TO ANTITRUST AND YOU WALK US THROUGH WHO HAS A BETTER CASE IN FRONT OF THE DOJ, NETFLIX OR PARAMOUNT? JENNIFER:

MY VIEW IS PARAMOUNT HAS A BETTER CASE.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT PARAMOUNT HAS MORE HORIZONTAL OVERLAPS WITH WARNER BROS. BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY THEY ARE MINIMAL. PARAMOUNT PLUS IN STREAMING IS

ARE MINIMAL. PARAMOUNT PLUS IN STREAMING IS A LOT SMALLER THAN NETFLIX. WE PUT IT TOGETHER WITH HBO MAX THE MARKET SHARES ARE LOWER. THE NUMBERS AND CONCENTRATION NUMBERS THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE WILL LOOK AT TO SEE WHETHER THIS COULD BE ANTICOMPETITIVE ARE FAR LOWER.

THEN THERE IS A BOX OFFICE OVERLAP OF THAT IS FAIRLY SMALL AS WELL EVEN THOUGH THERE IS BEEN CONSOLIDATION IN THAT SECTOR. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK IT MATTERS ABOUT

SECTOR. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK IT MATTERS ABOUT WHERE THE MONEY IS COMING FROM? WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THREE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS WELL AS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES SON-IN-LAW'S LAW FIRM? JENNIFER:

IT DOES NOT MATTER AND IT SHOULD NOT MATTER WILL STOP IF THERE IS LOT OF HARD MONEY COMING IN THE COMMITTEE MIGHT LOOK AT THE DEAL. WHAT I UNDERSTAND IS THERE'LL WILL BE NO MANAGEMENT CONTROL, THERE WILL BE NO VOTING SHARES.

IT IS LIKELY THAT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.

THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE SHOULD NOT CONSIDER JARED KUSHNER, THE MONEY COMING FROM JARED KUSHNER'S AND EQUITY FUND BECAUSE THEY SHOULD BE EVALUATING THIS BASED ON ANTITRUST LAWS AND THAT IS IT. OBVIOUSLY IT CAN INFLUENCE HOW PRESIDENT TRUMP SEES THAT AND THAT COULD RESULT IN PRESSURE BY THE ADMINISTRATION ON THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE. LISA:

YOU COULD ARGUE THAT NETFLIX HAS A BETTER CASE WHEN IT COMES TO THE ANTITRUST BATTLE WHEN IT COMES TO THE TYPE OF THE NEWS ORGANIZATIONS ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADMINISTRATION HOPING FOR A CHANGE IN DIRECTION. HOW DOES THAT FACTOR IN, AND THE FACT THAT PARAMOUNT WOULD BE BIDDING FOR CNN AND CBS, BRINGING THEM TOGETHER, WHERE IS THE NETFLIX DEAL WOULD

SEPARATE THE TWO. JENNIFER: YOU BRING UP A GREAT POINT I SHOULD'VE MENTIONED BEFORE WHEN I TALK ABOUT THE OVERLAP.

NOT ONLY DO I THINK THAT OVERLAP IN NEWS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC, I THINK IT OVERLAP IN THE GIANT CABLE NETWORKS THE COMPANY HAS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC.

THAT KIND OF ISSUE IS FIXED THROUGH DIVESTITURE.

WHAT I WOULD EXPECT IS THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE WOULD PROBABLY ASK PARAMOUNT TO THE VEST CNN. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ADMINISTRATION MIGHT BE MORE INTERESTED IN CNA STAYING IN THE HANDS OF PARAMOUNT BECAUSE IT IS THE ELLISON FAMILY AND THE ELLISON'S ARE ALIGNED WITH

HIM. I COULD SEE THEM ASKING THE COMPANY TO DIVEST SOME OF THE

HIM. I COULD SEE THEM ASKING THE COMPANY TO DIVEST SOME OF THE CABLE NETWORKS. LISA: HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO

CABLE NETWORKS. LISA: HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT A MONOPOLY IS THAT INDUSTRIES ARE SO PROFOUNDLY CHANGING. THE IDEA NETFLIX COULD ARGUE

PROFOUNDLY CHANGING. THE IDEA NETFLIX COULD ARGUE THERE BIG COMPETITOR IS YOUTUBE AND NOT ONE OF THE OTHER STREAMING NETWORKS, PARAMOUNT OR THE LIKE.

HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE IS IN A TIME WHERE OUR INTENTION IS BEING SPLIT INTO DIFFERENT PLACES. JENNIFER:

PLACES. JENNIFER: THAT IS A REALLY GOOD QUESTION BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT IT WILL BE ALL ABOUT AND THAT IS WHAT MOST MERGER ARGUMENTS ARE ALL ABOUT.

HOW DO YOU DEFINE THE MARKET? HOW DO YOU PUT YOUR ARMS AROUND THE SPHERE OF COMPETITION. THAT IS WHAT DICTATES MARKET SHARE AND MARKET COMPETITION. NETFLIX WILL ARGUE THE MARKET IS BROADER AND SHOULD INCLUDE ANYTHING TAKING ATTENTION OF EYEBALLS WERE SOMEONE IS WATCHING VIDEO, WHETHER YOUTUBE OR TIKTOK OR STANDARD TELEVISION.

THE WAY THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE LOOKS AT THIS AND ACTUALLY USE REALLY COMPLICATED MODELING TO TRY TO FIGURE THIS OUT.

THEY LOOK AT IT FROM A CONSUMER SUBSTITUTABILITY PERSPECTIVE.

THEY ASKED IF A PERSON SUBSCRIBES TO A SERVICE OR PRODUCT, THEY DO NOT LIKE THE PRICE OR QUALITY AND THEY WANT TO SWITCH, WHAT WILL THEY SWITCH TO?

ANYTHING THEY MIGHT SWITCH TO IS INCLUDED IN THAT MARKET.

WHEN THE CONSUMER DOES NOT SWITCH, THAT DEFINES THE MARKET.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD ARGUMENT THAT FOR SOME CLASS OF CONSUMERS THEY WOULD NOT VIEW SOMETHING LIKE YOUTUBE AS A SUBSTITUTE FOR STREAMING VIDEO ON DEMAND. ANNMARIE:

WHEN YOU THINK THE DOJ WOULD WRAP THIS UP? JENNIFER:

ONCE WE HAVE A DEAL AND THAT DEAL IS FILED I THINK YOU ARE LOOKING AT A YEAR OR MORE. THESE THINGS TAKE A LONG TIME.

THE ISSUE A BIG SUBPOENA ALL THE SECOND REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ASKING FOR DATA AND DOCUMENTS.

COMPANIES HAVE TO TURN THOSE OVER WHICH TAKES A LONG TIME.

THEY GO IN WITH THE ECONOMISTS THEY MAKE ARGUMENTS IN DEFENSE OF THE DEAL. IT DOES TO TAKE ABOUT A YEAR, SOMETIMES 18 MONTHS. LISA: JENNIFER REE, WONDERFUL TO GET YOUR THOUGHTS WILL STOP THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

MEANWHILE WE ARE GETTING WEEKLY A DEEPLY EMPLOYMENT DATA THAT DOES INFLECT TO THE POSITIVE -- WEEKLY ADP EMPLOYMENT DATA DOES INFLECT TO THE POSITIVE. MICHAEL MCKEE JOINING US FOR MORE. WHAT DO WE SEE?

MORE. WHAT DO WE SEE?

MICHAEL: IN THE WEEKS LEADING UP TO NOVEMBER 2 THE ECONOMY ADDED JOBS WHICH IS AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE 13,000 OR SO THAT WERE LOST THE WEEK BEFORE.

THE PROBLEM IS WE DO NOT KNOW HOW TO USE THIS.

THE FED HAS BEEN USING THIS DATA IN SOME TIME WHICH HELPS THEM IN THE ABSENCE OF THE NONFARM PAYROLLS NUMBERS GET A SENSE OF WHERE THE ECONOMY IS. WHEN YOU HAVE WIDE SWINGS LIKE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN TERMS OF THESE FOUR WEEK AVERAGE IS IT IS HARD TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THAT LEAVES YOU FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT

WEEK, A WEEK FROM TODAY BEFORE WE GET THE NEXT PAYROLL NUMBERS FROM NOVEMBER. WE WILL NET -- WE WILL NOT GET

FROM NOVEMBER. WE WILL NET -- WE WILL NOT GET ALL OF THE OCTOBER NUMBERS. IT IS BETTER NEWS BUT IT DOES NOT TELL US WHERE WE SAW IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. LISA:

THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST POSITIVE READ FROM THIS NEW ADP REPORT AFTER FOUR STRAIGHT WEEKS OF NEGATIVE READS.

WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOMETHING ABOUT THE SMALL BUSINESS FRONT THAT ADP POINTS OUT SAYING "IN GENERAL SMALL BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS RUST 120,000 JOBS IN NOVEMBER WHILE MEDIUM AND LARGE FIRMS ADDED 90,000 JOBS. ANNMARIE:

THIS IS DIRECTION OF TRAVEL BETTER BASED ON WHAT WE HAD PREVIOUSLY HEARD FROM ADP. THEY ARE ADDING MORE JOBS.

DOES IT MOVE THE NEEDLE FOR THE FED? I THINK SO.

WE WILL NOT GET A CLEAR PICTURE UNTIL NEXT WEEK. LISA:

THAT IS WHY PEOPLE ARE POTENTIALLY LOOKING FOR INFORMATION DELAYED FROM NONFARM PAYROLLS.

WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT AND WHAT WE WILL DO WITH THAT.

WE TALKED TO JONATHAN PINGLE OF UBS. LES DANI BURGER WITH YOUR MORNING MOVERS. ANOTHER CHECK ON PARAMOUNT AS

MORNING MOVERS. ANOTHER CHECK ON PARAMOUNT AS THE COMPANY GOES ALL IN ON WARNER BROS..

IN MARKETS MORE BROADLY A REAL QUESTION OF LONG-TERM BOND YIELDS AND HOW MUCH THEY HAVE CLIMBED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF SESSIONS. DO THEY CONTINUE THAT ASSENT AS

SESSIONS. DO THEY CONTINUE THAT ASSENT AS THE GLOBAL BOND SELLOFF TAKES HOLD IN MARKETS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN GAINS AND LOSSES AS PEOPLE RATCHET BACK EXPECTATIONS FOR NEXT YEAR'S FED RATE CUTS.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE."

♪ LISA: RIGHT NOW, YOU HAVE STOCK FLUCTUATING BETWEEN GAINS AND LOSSES WITH FUTURES LITTLE CHANGED.

PERILOUS OPERA PERFORMANCE IN THE RUSSELL 2000.

DO WE CHANGE THAT? SO MUCH DEPENDS ON THE LONG TERM BOND YIELD AFTER THAT SELLOFF WE HAVE SEEN.

A QUESTION AROUND THE DOMESTIC ONE. YOU HAVE SEEN A BIT MORE SKEPTICISM IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH THE FED CAN CUT RATES.

95% CHANCE THEY WILL CUT IN TOMORROW'S ANNOUNCEMENT.

CRASHING BACK TO'S EXPECTATIONS, A LITTLE BIT OF A BID COMING INTO THE LONG END. ONE HOUR AWAY FROM THE CASH OPEN. HERE ARE YOUR MORNING MOVIES

OPEN. HERE ARE YOUR MORNING MOVIES WITH DANI BURGER. DANI:

YOU ARE LOOKING AT PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE SHARES UP HALF A PERCENT. THEY WERE UP MORE THAN 1% IN

PERCENT. THEY WERE UP MORE THAN 1% IN THE PREMARKET TRADE MOMENTS AGO BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THE ODDS KEEP SHIFTING ABOUT WHO WILL BUY WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY.

WE HAVE LEARNED ABOUT THE BACKING, A LOT OF MIDDLE EASTERN SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS, JARED KUSHNER'S AFFINITY, THE ALLISON FAMILY.

ARES GETS A LOT OF PASSIVE FLOW WHEN COMPANIES GET ADDED TO THE S&P 500, SO SHARES ARE UP 7%. AND DOING THINGS WITH HOME DEPOT. 6:00, WE GOT AN UPDATE ON THEIR

DEPOT. 6:00, WE GOT AN UPDATE ON THEIR INVESTOR DAY, SAYING THEY EXPECT NEXT YEAR COMPARABLE SAME-STORE SALES TO BE BETWEEN ZERO AND 2%.

THAT DOES NOT SUGGEST A RECOVERY IS ON THE WAY.

SHARES ARE DROPPING 2.6%. LISA: THEY DIDN'T GIVE A ROSIER SCENARIO BUT SAID THEY HADN'T SEEN THE REBOUND IN THE HOUSING MARKET JUST YET. MEANWHILE, THE FOMC'S ME THINKING OF TODAY. PRESIDENT TRUMP ISSUING A TEST FOR THE NEXT FED CHAIR.

>> IS IT A LITMUS TEST FOR THE NEW CHAIR TO LOWER INTEREST RATES IMMEDIATELY?

>> YES. THIS GUY SHOULD, TOO.

I THINK HE IS A COMBINATION OF NOT A SMART PERSON AND DOESN'T LIKE TRUMP. LISA: MICHAEL MCKEE JOINS US NOW FOR

LIKE TRUMP. LISA: MICHAEL MCKEE JOINS US NOW FOR MORE. WE ARE GOING TO BE TALKING MORE

MORE. WE ARE GOING TO BE TALKING MORE ABOUT THE RACE TO BE THE NEXT FED CHAIR.

A QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH CLOUT JEROME POWELL STILL HAS IN HIS MEETING TOMORROW. MIKE: POWELL STILL HAS ENORMOUS

MEETING TOMORROW. MIKE: POWELL STILL HAS ENORMOUS RESPECT FROM MEMBERS OF THE OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE.

EVEN IF WE GET THE SENSE THAT IT WILL NOT REFLECT ON HIM BUT WILL REFLECT ON THE CIRCUMSTANCES.

THE ISSUE WITH THE PRESIDENT'S COMMENT TODAY, HE IS SETTING HIS FED CHAIR NOMINEE UP FOR A WALK IN THE DOOR FAILURE.

THE MARKETS WILL LOOK AT THE GUY AND SAY, AT THIS POINT, WE DON'T TRUST YOU BECAUSE WE BELIEVE YOU ARE THERE TO DO SOMETHING THE PRESIDENT WANTS, RATHER THAN WHAT THE ECONOMY TELLS YOU. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT KEVIN

TELLS YOU. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT KEVIN HASSETT HAS TRIED TO TALK DOWN. HERE IS THE PRESIDENT SEEM TO UNDERCUT HIM A LITTLE BIT. LISA: WHEN KEVIN HASSETT WAS SPEAKING YESTERDAY, HE DIMINISHED THE IDEA OF GETTING A SIX-MONTH PLAN OF HOW MUCH HE PLANS TO CUT IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2026 SHOULD HE BECOME FED CHAIR.

THERE IS A FEELING WHOEVER BECOMES THE HEAD OF THE CENTRAL BANK AS TO BUILD CREDIBILITY ON THE MARKETS AND ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE COMMITTEE. MIKE: ABSOLUTELY.

RESERVE COMMITTEE. MIKE: ABSOLUTELY.

THAT WILL BE A TEST FOR ANYONE THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP NOMINATES BECAUSE HE HAS BEEN SO FIRM AND CRITICIZING THE FED AND JAY POWELL. WE DON'T KNOW WHETHER POWELL

POWELL. WE DON'T KNOW WHETHER POWELL WILL STAY ON THE FED OR NOT AS A GOVERNOR IF HE IS NOT SURE ANYMORE. A BIT OF LEVERAGE HE HAS OVER

ANYMORE. A BIT OF LEVERAGE HE HAS OVER THE PRESIDENT. HE HAS SUGGESTED TO PEOPLE THAT

THE PRESIDENT. HE HAS SUGGESTED TO PEOPLE THAT HE MIGHT STAY IF HE DOESN'T THINK THE NEW FED CHAIR HAS CREDIBILITY, OR COULD DO DAMAGE TO THE FED.

THAT WILL BE A POLITICAL QUESTION TO WATCH GOING FORWARD ALONG WITH THE WHOLE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT THE PRESIDENT CAN FIRE LISA COOK, A DECISION THAT WOULD PROBABLY COME AFTER POWELL IS GONE. IF THE PRESIDENT WAS ABLE TO DO THAT AND POWELL DECIDED TO LEAVE, DONALD TRUMP WOULD HAVE A LOT OF SPACE TO FILL SPOTS ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE. LISA:

THANK YOU SO MUCH. WE LOOK FORWARD TO CATCHING UP WITH YOU THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TOMORROW AS THAT FED MEETING CONCLUDES. WE ARE HEARING FROM KEVIN

CONCLUDES. WE ARE HEARING FROM KEVIN HASSETT. HE DID SAY THE FED CHAIR'S JOB

HASSETT. HE DID SAY THE FED CHAIR'S JOB IS TO WATCH THE DATA, EXPLAIN WHAT THEY ARE DOING AND WHY.

HE ALSO WENT ON TO SAY THAT, I'M GOING TO DO THIS OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS, WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE, EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE HAVE TALKED ABOUT A SIX MONTH PLAN FOR ANY TRUMP APPOINTEE. ANNMARIE:

APPOINTEE. ANNMARIE: IF HE KNOWS HE IS GETTING THE NOD, HE IS SETTING HIMSELF UP TO GET MORE CREDIBILITY FROM HIS COMMITTEE MEMBERS.

WE HAVE TO LOOK AT THE DATA, HAVE THE ECONOMY IS DIGESTING ALL OF THIS, AND THEN MAKE DECISIONS THAT MAKE SENSE FOR BOTH SIDES OF THE MANDATE. LISA: LET'S STICK WITH THE FED AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S RIGHT DECISION. JONATHAN PINGLE WRITING WE EXPECT A LARGE MAJORITY OF FOMC MEMBERS TO SUPPORT A 25 BASIS POINT RATE CUT. EXPECT A FEW CHANGES TO THE DOT

PLOT AND NO CHANGES TO THE MEETING ASSUMPTION OF APPROPRIATE POLICY. THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

APPROPRIATE POLICY. THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

LET'S START WITH A QUESTION OF WHAT YOU EXPECT TO LEARN TOMORROW IF YOU DON'T THINK WE ARE NOT GOING TO GET ANY ADJUSTMENTS. JONATHAN:

ADJUSTMENTS. JONATHAN: I THINK WE WILL GET CERTAIN COMMUNICATIONS OUT OF CHAIR POWELL, ASSESSMENT OF THE RISKS, HOW HE IS VIEWING THE OUTLOOK, WHAT KIND OF BAR HE MAY HAVE IN MIND FOR FUTURE CUTS.

THE MARKET HAS BEEN PRETTY ANGERED, HAVING THE YEAR-END TARGET RANGE AROUND 3%. A LOT OF THAT IS THE DISCUSSION YOU ARE HAVING ON THE NEXT FED CHAIR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF CHAIR POWELL'S TENURE, HE IS STILL BALANCING THESE MIXED SIGNALS. WEAK RESIDENTIAL, SOGGY LABOR MARKET. HOW DOES HE BALANCE THAT AGAINST INFLATION?

MARKET. HOW DOES HE BALANCE THAT AGAINST INFLATION?

THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT GOING INTO TOMORROW. LISA:

HOW IMPORTANT IS IT THAT WE SEE DISSENTS ON THE FOMC COMMITTEE?

JONATHAN: IT IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL HISTORICALLY.

IF YOU LOOK BACK AT THE GREENSPAN ERA, WHERE CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN, WITH A LOT OF MANIPULATIVE SKILL, CONTROLLED THE COMMITTEE. THEN YOU HAD THE BERNANKE ERA.

THE COMMITTEE. THEN YOU HAD THE BERNANKE ERA.

BEN WAS THE CORRECT, SCHOLARLY CHOICE FOR THE MOMENT.

THEN YOU HAVE THE PANDEMIC, INFLATION.

THERE WAS A LOT OF ALL HANDS ON DECK MOMENTS.

I'M NOT SURPRISED THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN A LOT OF DISSENTS LATELY. BUT HISTORICALLY, THEY ARE THE

LATELY. BUT HISTORICALLY, THEY ARE THE NORM. UNANIMITY IS THE EXCEPTION.

NORM. UNANIMITY IS THE EXCEPTION.

I BET CHAIR POWELL GETS FEWER THAN FOUR DISSENTS.

YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE CLOUT EARLIER.

I THINK IT IS MORE EARNED RESPECT.

HE HAS BEEN THE ONE POUNDING THE PAVEMENT ON CAPITOL HILL, THE ONE BEING TWEETED ABOUT. HE HAS DONE A LOT TO INCORPORATE THE VIEWS OF HIS COMMITTEE.

I THINK AT THE END OF HIS TENURE, HE HAS EARNED SOME DEFERENCE AT THIS POINT. ANNMARIE:

DON'T DISSENTS SHOW CREDIBILITY AT THIS IS A DELIBERATIVE BODY, AT LEAST FOR THE FUTURE IF YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT SOMEONE THAT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES?

JONATHAN: THEY ARE SUPER HEALTHY BUT ALSO YOU DON'T NEED THEM.

EVEN THOUGH SHE IS NOT A VOTER, BETH HAMMACK AGREES WITH THE POLICY. YOU CERTAINLY HAVE THAT KIND OF

POLICY. YOU CERTAINLY HAVE THAT KIND OF OPEN DEBATE. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL

OPEN DEBATE. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL PLAY OUT, REMAIN A FUTURE FOR THE NEXT FOMC NEXT YEAR.

ANNMARIE: WHEN YOU LOOK TO THE NEXT FOMC, HOW MANY CUPS DO YOU HAVE BAKED IN FOR NEXT YEAR, AND DOESN'T MATTER WHO THE FED CHAIR IS? JONATHAN:

I HAVE TWO, AND I THINK IT MATTERS.

WE ARE ALL TALKING ABOUT KEVIN HASSETT.

I HAVE KNOWN HIM FOR A LONG TIME. IN TERMS OF HIS ABILITY TO BUILD CREDIBILITY, HE HAS THREE KEY FEATURES THAT WOULD MAKE HIM AN EFFECTIVE FED CHAIR. ONE IS HIS ACADEMIC PUBLICATION RECORD IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE PEER REVIEWED JOURNALS HE IS PUBLISHED INCOME INCREDIBLY

WELL CITED PAPERS.

HE WAS ON THE BOARD STAFF, INCREDIBLY ASTUTE HIMSELF WITH KNOWLEDGE OF A LOT OF THAT STAFF, HOW THEY USE THE DATA.

KEVIN IS NICE, REALLY COLLEGIAL. THAT WILL GO OVER WELL IN TERMS OF TRYING TO WORK WITH HIS COLLEAGUES.

I ALSO THINK THAT COMBINATION WILL HELP HIM WIN DEBATES AT THE TABLE. LISA: WE TALK ABOUT EVERYDAY POLICY

THE TABLE. LISA: WE TALK ABOUT EVERYDAY POLICY AS BEING RATE CUTS, BUT WHEN YOU TALK TO STRATEGISTS, THEY TALK ABOUT THAT BALANCE SHEET, QUANTITATIVE EASING.

WE HEAR THAT FROM MORGAN STANLEY, BANK OF AMERICA, BLACK ROCK, MONETIZATION OF THE DEBT, FOCUSING ON T-BILLS, PURCHASES DISPROPORTIONATELY ON THE BALANCE SHEET.

HOW MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY ARE YOU LOOKING FOR IN THE BACKDROP IN SPITE OF THIS TEMPERED VIEW OF HOW MANY CUPS THIS FED COULD MAKE? JONATHAN:

MAKE? JONATHAN: I EXPECT THEM TO START OUT RIGHT EXPANDING THEIR SECURITIES HOLDINGS IN JANUARY. IF YOU LOOK AT THE LEVEL OF RESERVE BALANCE, WHAT IS HAPPENING IN REPO, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU TO START TO GET A LITTLE TIGHT.

I THINK THEY WILL HAVE A RESERVE PURCHASE PROGRAM.

REGULAR T-BILLS COME AROUND $40 BILLION A MONTH BUT WILL NEED TO GET UP TO 60 BY THE END OF THE YEAR.

REALLY JUST BECAUSE THEY HAVE OTHER LIABILITIES THAT ARE RISING OVER TIME. YOU CLEARLY SEEM TO BE IN THE SAMPLE RESERVE REGIME WHERE YOU ARE PUTTING UPWARD PRESSURE ON THE EFFECTIVE FUNDS RATE.

THE SPREAD TO IRB'S NARROWED OVER THE LAST MONTH AND A HALF.

THEY ARE AT THE POINT WHERE THEY NEED TO START ADDING LIQUIDITY. LISA: WHICH IS WHAT PEOPLE ARE

LIQUIDITY. LISA: WHICH IS WHAT PEOPLE ARE MENTIONING, THE SELLOFF IN BIG TECH WAS DRIVEN BY THE WITHDRAWAL OF THAT.

HOW MUCH OF THIS IS A TECHNICAL ISSUE IN THE MARKETS, HOW MUCH IS MONETIZATION OF THE DEBT, ASSET VALUE? JONATHAN:

THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF MONETIZATION OF THE DEBT.

I AM STACKED LITTLE -- SKEPTICAL ABOUT HOW MUCH THAT IS DRIVING HIGH-FREQUENCY EQUITY MOVES.

IF YOU HAVE HIGHER REPO RATES, YOU WILL HAVE HIGHER COSTS FOR FUNDING LEVERAGE POSITIONS IN EQUITY MARKETS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE BACKGROUND WITH THE FED BALANCE SHEET, THEY HAVE GONE TOO FAR, THEY NEED TO REVERSE IT, BUT I DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE A FLOOD OF ADDITIONAL LIQUIDITY.

THEY WILL TRY TO TEMPER HOW MUCH THEY ARE ACTUALLY ADDING.

I THINK THE RISK IS THEY PROBABLY ERR ON ADDING TOO LITTLE. LISA:

LITTLE. LISA: HOW DO YOU GAME OUT THE IDEA THAT WE MAY SEE FIT RATE CUTS IN ADDITION TO FISCAL STIMULUS, IN ADDITION TO A RICK'S 11 CONSUMER, WHEN INFLATION IS STILL STICKY?

DO YOU SEE THIS AS CREATING A PROBLEM FOR THE 10-YEAR, A FED THAT IS MOTIVATED TO CAPTURE SOME OF THOSE YIELDS? JONATHAN:

I DON'T THINK SO AGREEMENT WE ARE GETTING GOOD NEWS ON THE FORWARD INDICATION -- FORWARD-LOOKING INDICATORS.

YOU CAN SEE THE TARIFFS SLOWLY PASSING THROUGH.

THE FORWARD INDICATORS THAT WE ARE SEEING ON THINGS LIKE RENTS HAVE REALLY GONE THE FED'S WAY. WE HAVE AMONG THE HIGHER ESTIMATES OF INFLATION ON THE STREET, BUT SECOND HALF OF NEXT YEAR, WE ARE STILL BACK TO 2.5% OR BELOW ON ANNUALIZED RUN RATE.

THE FED HAS GOT SOME TAILWINDS ON INFLATION.

FED CREDIBILITY, WE WILL SEE HOW MUCH THEY TRY TO PUSH RATES LOWER, BUT I THINK YOU WILL START TO HEAR A MUCH MORE CREDIBLE CASE ABOUT THE SUPPLY SIDE, IN A WAY THAT WILL ALLEVIATE AT LEAST SOME INVESTORS CONCERNS OVER WHETHER THIS WILL BE AN FOMC THAT RUNS AMOK. ANNMARIE:

YOU DON'T AGREE WITH THE HOX, CONCERNS ABOUT INFLATION.

HOW DO YOU VIEW THE LABOR MARKET? JONATHAN:

I AM SYMPATHETIC TO THEIR ARGUMENT.

THEY HAVE HIT THEIR TARGET FOR FIVE YEARS.

IT WILL LOOK THAT IF INFLATION STAYS STICKY.

I THINK THEY FACE A PROBLEM WITH THE LABOR MARKET.

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT CONTRACTING.

GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT HAS BEEN UNUSUAL WEEK FOR THE U.S..

CONSUMER SPENDING HAS BEEN MIXED.

UPPER INCOME IS DOING WELL BUT OTHERS ARE NOT.

THE LABOR MARKET IS WEAK FOR A REASON.

IF THE LABOR MARKET TURNED INTO OBVIOUS CONTRACTION, YOU COULD HAVE HOUSEHOLDS PULL BACK IN EARNEST. THINKING ABOUT CHAIR POWELL'S RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK, COST TO THE ECONOMY OF AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE THAT DOESN'T STOP GOING UP, I CAN SEE WHY HE WANTED TO ADDRESS. THERE WAS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF REASON TO SLOW THE LABOR MARKET WHEN IT IS ALREADY WEAKENING TOO MUCH. NOT A LOT THE FUNDS RATE CAN DO

TOO MUCH. NOT A LOT THE FUNDS RATE CAN DO TO STOP THAT. I DO THINK HIS CALCULUS MAKES A LITTLE BIT OF SENSE. LISA: JONATHAN PINGLE, WONDERFUL TO SEE YOU IN STUDIO. LET'S GET AN UPDATE ON STORIES ELSEWHERE. WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF,

ELSEWHERE. WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF, HERE'S YAHAIRA ANAND. YAHAIRA:

PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE WATCHING A HOSTILE TAKEOVER BID FOR WARNER BROS., DAYS AFTER THE COMPANY AGREED TO A DEAL WITH NETFLIX.

BROS., DAYS AFTER THE COMPANY AGREED TO A DEAL WITH NETFLIX.

THE OFFER STANDS AT $30 A SHARE IN CASH COMPARED TO NETFLIX'S CASH AND STOCK BID AT JUST UNDER $28 A SHARE.

JARED KUSHNER PARTICIPATING IN THE PARAMOUNT GOOD, DOWNPLAYING HIS INVOLVEMENT, SAYING HE IS NOT CLOSE TO PARAMOUNT, NOR NETFLIX. PRESIDENT TRUMP NVIDIA TO SHIFT

NETFLIX. PRESIDENT TRUMP NVIDIA TO SHIFT ITS H200 AI SHIPS TO CHINA IN EXCHANGE FOR A 25% CUT OF SALES.

THE MOVE MEANS THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY COULD REGAIN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN LOST BUSINESS.

THE PRESIDENT SAYS THE SALES WOULD ONLY GO TO APPROVED CUSTOMERS AND THAT CHIPMAKERS SUCH AS INTEL AND AMD WOULD ALSO BE ELIGIBLE. PEPSICO ANNOUNCING A SERIES OF OPERATIONAL CHANGES BACK BY ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT.

IT INCLUDES CUTTING 20% OF ITS U.S.

PRODUCT LINEUP, INVESTING IN MORE AFFORDABLE PRODUCTS, AND PLENTY MORE LAYOFFS IN NORTH AMERICA.

THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. LISA:

NEXT, SET YOU UP FOR THE DAY AHEAD, AND ED LUDLOW AS THE WHITE HOUSE REVERSES ITS STANCE OF SELLING NVIDIA CHIPS TO CHINA. SHARES RISING IN RESPONSE.

CHINA. SHARES RISING IN RESPONSE.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ."

♪ >> THERE'S BEEN SO MUCH BACK AND FORTH ON THIS.

MY RECOLLECTION WAS THAT THE H200 WAS BUILT TO BE EXPORTED AS OPPOSED TO OTHER CHIPS. THERE'S AN ARGUMENT TO BE MADE ON BOTH SIDES, ONE FOR SECURITY, AND YOU WANT THE PARADIGM TO BE THE TECHNOLOGY WE ARE EXPORTING AS OPPOSED TO LETTING PEOPLE DEVELOP THE TECHNOLOGY. LISA:

NVIDIA EXPORTING H200 CHIPS TO CHINA AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP REVERSED HIS STANCE ON IT. NVIDIA AND AMD SHARES RISING IN THE PREMARKET TRADING. INTEL ALSO POTENTIALLY INCLUDED ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICIPATING AS MUCH BASED ON WHAT THE EXPORT MODELS COULD BE. S&P FUTURES FADING THROUGH THE MORNING.

LOWER BY LESS THAN -- NOT A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE.

REALLY A FOCUS ON WHAT WE GET FROM JOLTS OF JOB OPENINGS THIS MORNING AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE.

10-YEAR LOWER BY TWO BASIS POINTS AFTER THAT ADP DATA CAME OUT. 4.1468.

OUT. 4.1468.

WE ARE FOCUSED ON COUNTING DOWN TO THE OPENING BELL.

YOUR TRADING DIARY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. OCTOBER JOLTS DATA.

TOMORROW, FOMC RATE DECISION FOLLOWED BY JAY POWELL'S PRESS CONFERENCE PAVING EARNINGS FROM OR CALL AFTER THE CLOSING BELL.

THURSDAY COME ANOTHER ROUND OF JOBLESS CLAIMS. EARNINGS FROM BROADCOM, AND COSTCO, A REAL QUESTION ABOUT HOW THEY ARE LINING UP WITH TARIFFS.

FRIDAY, WE HEAR FROM BETH, AUSTAN GOOLSBEE.

PRESIDENT ALLOWING NVIDIA TO SELL ITS H200 CHIPS TO CHINA.

ED LUDLOW JOINS US FROM SAN FRANCISCO WITH THE LATEST. HOW

MUCH OF A REVERSAL IS THIS IN SILICON VALLEY, GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A SHIFT IN THE APPROACH TO NATIONAL SECURITY? ED: AS A POINT OF EXPORT CONTROL

SECURITY? ED: AS A POINT OF EXPORT CONTROL POLICY, A BIG SHIFT. EVEN A BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS PUBLISHED A NOTE ON IT. H200 IS A PIECE OF TECHNOLOGY AT THE CENTER OF EXPORT CONTROL POLICY.

THE SOUNDBITE THAT YOU PLAY FROM THE LAST GUEST IS INTERESTING, WHAT IS THE H200? IT IS MANY TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN THE H20, WHICH WAS SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED AS A DEPRECATED SHIP FOR THE CHINESE MARKET.

THIS IS A DEBATE OF THREE OF US HAVE DISCUSSED IN WEEKS PRIOR.

THAT POSITION OF NVIDIA AND JENSEN HUANG IS THAT IT WILL NOT WORK TO EXPORT A DEPRECATED SHIP TO CHINA, THEY WILL NOT ACCEPT IT. THE H200 IS ONE GENERATION

ACCEPT IT. THE H200 IS ONE GENERATION REMOVED FROM BLACKWELL, AVAILABLE TO COMPANIES IN AMERICA.

IT DOES MARK A SHIFT. WE HAVE GONE FROM A POSITION WHERE PEOPLE IN THE PRESIDENT'S ORBIT ARE OK WITH EXPORTING A DEPRECATED SHIP TO NOW BEING OK WITH EXPORTING A MORE POWERFUL CHIP. ACROSS THE POLITICAL DIVIDE,

CHIP. ACROSS THE POLITICAL DIVIDE, THERE ARE MANY NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS, AND THE BALL IS NOW IN CHINA'S COURT. WE DON'T EVEN KNOW IF CHINA WANTS IT. ANNMARIE: FINANCIAL TIMES HAS SOME

WANTS IT. ANNMARIE: FINANCIAL TIMES HAS SOME REPORTING THAT POTENTIALLY THEY WILL HAVE A REVIEW PROCESS, AND SOME FIRMS MAKE IT ACCESS TO IT, IF THEY CAN SHOW THE REASONS WHY THEY NEEDED INSTEAD OF USING A CHINESE COMPANY STRIP. -- COMPANY'S CHIP.

STRIP. -- COMPANY'S CHIP.

IF CHINA REALLY OPENS UP THE DOOR, WHAT KIND OF MONEY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT FOR THE BOTTOM LINE? ED:

LOOK AT THE TRAINING OF NVIDIA SHARES IN THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE PRESIDENT'S TRUTH SOCIAL POST TO THIS MORNING, AND MOMENTUM HAS BEEN LOST QUICKLY.

THE BASE ASSUMPTION IS ZERO REVENUE FROM CHINA WITHIN THIS FISCAL YEAR AND NEXT. BUT WHEN THE NEWS HIT, THE ANALYSTS QUICKLY WORKED OUT HOW MUCH REVENUE IS POSSIBLE IN CHINA. JENSEN HUANG SAYS THIS IS A $50

CHINA. JENSEN HUANG SAYS THIS IS A $50 BILLION MARKET OPPORTUNITY. THE ISSUE IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH THEY CAN WORK WITH CHINA ON THAT.

YOU ARE RIGHT, THE REPORT REFLECTS THAT CHINA'S POSITION IS TO SAY TO PARTICULARLY STRAIGHT-BACKED ENTERPRISE, WE WANT YOU TO PRIORITIZE STATE OWNED CHIPS BEFORE USING THE H200.

NVIDIA'S BASELINE ASSUMPTION IS ZERO REVENUE FROM CHINA ALTHOUGH THEY WOULD LOVE IT. NOW THE ANALYSTS BETWEEN THEM HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF ESTIMATES BETWEEN WHAT IS REALISTIC IN THE FISCAL YEAR. ANNMARIE: ALL OF THIS IN EXCHANGE FOR A 20 5% TARIFF. I REMEMBER THERE WAS 15% THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO GO TO THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. HAS THE U.S.

GOVERNMENT SEEN A DIME OF THAT? ED: NO.

YOU'LL REMEMBER I SPOKE TO THE NVIDIA CFO, VERY EXPERIENCED, AND SHE MADE A POINT THAT THEY ARE AN AMERICAN PUBLIC COMPANY.

THEY ARE BOUND BY SEC REGULATIONS, SARBANES-OXLEY ACT.

THERE IS NOTHING IN EXISTENCE IN THE LEGISLATURE THAT PROVIDE FOR A MECHANISM WHERE A COMPANY CAN ISSUE A SURCHARGE TO THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, IN THIS CASE 25%.

MY BASIC UNDERSTANDING IS OF COURSE THIS IS A DISCUSSION TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT AND JENSEN HUANG, BUT WE NEED TO SEE SPECIFICS FROM THE RELEVANT REGULATORY AGENCIES AND GOVERNMENT BODIES ON HOW IT WOULD WORK IN PRACTICE. THERE WILL BE LOADS OF COMPLIANCE AND FINANCE TEAMS

PRACTICE. THERE WILL BE LOADS OF COMPLIANCE AND FINANCE TEAMS WATCHING, SAYING, I WAS THINKING THAT.

BECAUSE THAT IS THE BASICS OF HOW A PUBLIC COMPANY WORKS IN THIS COUNTRY. LISA: THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR THE

THIS COUNTRY. LISA: THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR THE INSIGHTS ON THIS STORY WITH A REAL FOCUS ON BIG TECH AND HOW IT COULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE ECONOMY.

OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE JOLTS OF JOB OPENINGS DATA.

WE GOT THIS ADP REPORT EARLIER THIS MORNING.

IT IS A NEW SERIES OF DATA. NONETHELESS, THIS REALLY STANDS OUT TO ME, THE FOCUS ON SMALL BUSINESSES, ADP SAYING THAT LAST WEEK'S NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT SHOWED SMALL BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS LOST 120,000 JOBS IN NOVEMBER AND MEDIUM AND LARGE FIRMS ADDED 90,000. THIS IS A TALE OF TWO CORPORATE

SIZES. ANNMARIE:

SIZES. ANNMARIE: THIS IS WHAT NELA SAID TO US NEXT WEEK, CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SMALL BUSINESS SPACE, NOT THE BIG EXECUTIVES. GENE SEROKA, RUNNING THE PORT

EXECUTIVES. GENE SEROKA, RUNNING THE PORT OF L.A., IS SAYING THAT THEY CAN MITIGATE ALL OF THE

OF L.A., IS SAYING THAT THEY CAN MITIGATE ALL OF THE CONCERNS AROUND TARIFFS. THE SMALL BUSINESSES ARE THE ONES HAVING ISSUES WHEN IT COMES TO MARGINS, POTENTIALLY WHY THEY ARE LAYING PEOPLE OFF. LISA:

WHY THE FAT IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING THEIR HANDS AROUND THIS. YOU ARE SEEING BIG COMPANIES DO

THIS. YOU ARE SEEING BIG COMPANIES DO JUST FINE BUT YOU ARE SEEING JOB LOSSES IN SOME KEY AREAS.

WE HAVE AT FED MEETING KING UP-TO-DATE, FINISHING WITH THE PRESS CONFERENCE, WIDELY EXPECTED TO BE A 25 BASIS POINT CUT. KEVIN HASSETT IN THE FRONT SEAT

CUT. KEVIN HASSETT IN THE FRONT SEAT IN TERMS OF WHO IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT FED CHAIR.

YESTERDAY, TALKING ABOUT HOW HE IS NOT GOING TO GIVE A SENSE OF HOW MANY RATE CUTS HE WILL GAVE BEEMAN HE WILL REALLY BE DATA-DEPENDENT. ANNMARIE: THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT THE

DATA-DEPENDENT. ANNMARIE: THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL BE ASKING. WE KNOW THIS BECAUSE THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED IN HIS FIRST TERM, ARE YOU CUTTING INTEREST RATES? THAT IS ALL HE WANTS TO KNOW.

RATES? THAT IS ALL HE WANTS TO KNOW.

HE MIGHT SAY I AM PLANNING ON CUTTING THE NEXT MEETING.

HE IS TRYING TO BUILD CREDIBILITY FOR HIS POTENTIAL FUTURE COLLEAGUES. LISA:

FUTURE COLLEAGUES. LISA: COMING UP TOMORROW, JULIAN EMANUEL OF EVERCORE ISI, CHRIS HARVEY OF CIBC, CHEVRON CEO MIKE WIRTH WITH HUGE DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SECTOR. THIS WAS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ."

SURVEILLANCE ." ♪