Can Israel & the U.S. Sustain Iran's Military Power? (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report

The ineptitude of Donald Trump, Pete Hegsth, and Marco Rubio is turning the war against Iran into a very lethal version of the gang that couldn't shoot

straight. The excuses for the war, and

straight. The excuses for the war, and the goals shift by the hour. Is it to take out the nuclear program Trump insisted was obliterated last June? Or

is it to, as Steve Witkoff says, go after Iran because they are a week away from producing industrial-grade weapons usable nuclear material, a claim that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu and proponents of the war with Iran have been repeating for about three decades? Is it about regime change or is

decades? Is it about regime change or is it, as Rubio said, being fought because the US had to join Israel, which was determined to attack to prevent

preemptive attacks on US assets? The US

killed the top leaders of Iran, including the supreme leader, and then killed the second tier of Iranian leaders. It said it hoped to negotiate

leaders. It said it hoped to negotiate with "Most of the people we had in mind are dead," Trump admitted. "And now we have another group. They may be dead,

also based on reports." Trump demands the Iranian army surrender or face absolute guaranteed death. He says he will order the US Navy to escort tankers

and ships through the narrow straight of Hormuz, a move that would line up US ships in what would become an Iranian Turkey shoot. Hegs insists Trump will

Turkey shoot. Hegs insists Trump will decide who will rule Iran while our ally in Kuwait shot down three US fighter jets. the US or Israel or both, we don't

jets. the US or Israel or both, we don't know yet. Obliterated in elementary

know yet. Obliterated in elementary school, killing 175 school girls and over a thousand Iranian civilians have already been killed. Thrron is being

pummeled with thousands of bombs. And

yet Trump and his vile counterpart in Israel claim this is a war of liberation. Meanwhile, the CIA, which

liberation. Meanwhile, the CIA, which has spent decades fueling one tobacco after another in the Middle East, has embraced arming Kurdish militias to

bring down the Iranian regime. If one

thing is clear, it is that Trump and his codory of misfits and buffoons have no idea what they are doing. Joining me to discuss the war in Iran and its

consequences is Alistister Crook, a former British diplomat and member of the British uh uh negotiating teams. He

served for many years in the Middle East uh as a security adviser to the EU, special envoy to the Middle East, as well as helping lead efforts to set up negotiations and truses between Hamas,

Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian resistance groups uh with Israel. He was

instrumental in establishing the 2002 ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. He's

also the author of Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution, which analyzes the ascendancy of Islamic Movements in the Middle East.

Well, I don't know where to begin. Uh

I'll let you begin with this uh utter uh fiasco uh which is rapidly of course spreading throughout uh the region. give

us, I guess, in your view, uh, a kind of overview of where we are and what's what's happening.

Um well, you listed some of the options for what the war was about at just now at the start, but actually it wasn't

really like that because and we've seen it very clearly because it was reported extensively in the Hebrew press, not in English language press, but in the

Hebrew press, which we monitor quite carefully. um when Netanyahu went at the

carefully. um when Netanyahu went at the end of the year 28th 29th of December um

to Mara Lago for his summit uh with Trump. At that summit um he said some

Trump. At that summit um he said some things which were were a little bit surprising um but are relevant to today.

He said to him, "Listen, the nuclear issue isn't the issue. I'm not going to tell you they're a month away from a nuclear weapon. No, actually what I'm

nuclear weapon. No, actually what I'm going to tell you is you've got to change the priorities. The first

priority is the Iranian missile system.

We have to destroy that because what is happening is the system is becoming much more sophisticated. It is not just that

more sophisticated. It is not just that after the June war uh they replaced it.

They have created a completely new defense paradigm in the interim and the it has several layers to it. And I'm

telling you that if you do not destroy the missile system, even if Iran got a nuclear weapon or we knew that it was going to move to nuclear weapon, we

could do nothing about it because we wouldn't be able uh to penetrate um that umbrella. And he said, "So this is what

umbrella. And he said, "So this is what you have to do." And um Trump agreed at that point, gave the green light for an

attack on Iran. This is reported in various um Hebrew uh accounts of this meeting that took place that he he agreed to do an attack and even the date

was more or less set. In fact, the date changed a little bit, but it was set for a certain week um uh uh in as we've seen

at this time. And um Netanyahu also in these accounts was very clear in saying um very clear in saying to Trump, listen

um you you have to do this um and furthermore, if you try and do a nuclear agreement, if you try and come up with

some nuclear way through, look, I'm the one who gives this a kosher um certificate. He used those words, kosher

certificate. He used those words, kosher certificate. You're not going to get a

certificate. You're not going to get a kosher certificate for a nuclear agreement anyway. And you know, you know

agreement anyway. And you know, you know that the right-wing in America will take their lead from me. No certificate, you will be seen to fail. And what's more,

if you don't do it still, we will do the first attack and let's see you not join us. Of course, you have no choice. You

us. Of course, you have no choice. You

have to join us. So really in some respects you could say um uh that Trump had no option. He was

not given an option but to attack um Iran. And then

Iran. And then the actual pretext, the peg to hang it on has changed several times since that

time. the nuclear issue or weapons,

time. the nuclear issue or weapons, searching around for, if you like, the pretext to to to really hide that the

fact that this was compelled on him uh by Netanyahu, >> which is what Rubio admitted, >> which is what Rubio admitted. I mean,

and the the compulsion was probably uh somewhat greater than than just that.

And maybe you know uh he was uh told very clearly he had no choice.

>> Let's talk about the missiles. What uh

you know what kinds of missiles are these Iranian-made missiles? Are these

Chinese missiles? You talked about an upgrade. Explain what that upgrade was.

upgrade. Explain what that upgrade was.

Also, uh explain what's happening now because they're sending fleets of drones. My supposition is they're not

drones. My supposition is they're not sending their most sophisticated weaponry uh one would expect so that they can deplete the interceptors.

>> That's absolutely you're absolutely correct. In fact, what they're using is

correct. In fact, what they're using is the missile inventory from 2012 2013 at the moment. Um very old missiles um and

the moment. Um very old missiles um and simple drones. uh and their purpose is

simple drones. uh and their purpose is to deplete or to force Israel and the Gulf States um to deplete their

intercept capacities um which they are doing. And the what we see now is that

doing. And the what we see now is that the Gulf ability to intercept um even drones is almost zero. Um I

think Gata still have some intercept capabilities in Aluade American base there. But otherwise um drones are

there. But otherwise um drones are flying freely uh in Iranian drones are flying freely over Doha um uh and Dubai

and they are attacking bases right across um the Gulf particularly um in Bahrain. Uh very focused on Bahrain. the

Bahrain. Uh very focused on Bahrain. the

which is houses it hosts the fifth fleet the port but it hosts an array of intelligence and other areas so they've

used these drones and missiles to take out the eyes of um the United States so they have destroyed these very expensive

radar capabilities um uh about four or five of them sometimes they cost more than a billion dollars each. But all of these are being

dollars each. But all of these are being systematically destroyed. The only radar

systematically destroyed. The only radar capability probably is is uh uh is in Israel at this moment. But the Gulf has

lost all its radar capabilities.

They weren't Gulf. These were big radars that could see 500 miles. They were part of the most sophisticated element of the

American, if you like, ability to project a battlescape digitally and through their satellites and through their radar systems in a joint approach.

So that was what they were using those drones for to begin with. uh and they'd said and they'd warned although it seems to have taken the West by surprise but

Iran was very explicit and said the first focus will be on American bases in the Gulf in the Persian Gulf and

subsequently they have started and they've been moving carefully still using mainly um older missiles um these

ones from made that were made 20 years ago some of them 2012 2020 2013 using these older missiles but now they've

just moved to the later ones and the later ones are devastating. I'm talking

about the Korum SH 4 example uh which is um a hypersonic missile. It it it flies at match 14

and it has uh multiple uh submunitions 80 subm munition warheads in it which

are steerable and like it's a a multiple arrival of 80 of these small if you like warheads.

that each of these has a warhead of about nearly 20 kilos. So they're not huge bombs, but they're really

significant. But if you have 80 of these

significant. But if you have 80 of these arriving together, they come more or less bunched, but they come bunched

within say uh an a radius of about 15 to 16 kilometers a total. So wide area and it's like being shelled artillery

shelled by 80 guns at the same time. So

it's very it's it's devastating and the Israelis it seems from all the evidence we see that they cannot they cannot down

missiles that are traveling at a speed above M match 4. So they are not being able to to destroy those. They can take down some of the slower missiles, but

those slower missiles were fired precisely to draw um on the um on on the intervening the ability to

fire intervention missiles to try and bring down those. And uh it's also very evident that Israel is now using those

in prodigious quantities.

You can see from some of the videos that are have get get through the um the censorship um that as the Iranian

missiles come in um Israel is firing perhaps 8 10 12 intercept missiles to try and bring it down. That cannot go on

for very long. they their their stocks of these intercept missiles was low after the 12-day war in June. Um it

hasn't been fully restored. Um because

America doesn't have many of these intercept missiles and so there will come a time when they will run out. And

this is why you see now Iran using fewer missiles because they say we don't have to use more because we fire one missile

now and it it's and it takes down the what remains of the intercept capacity o of Israel. So that is why um that is

of Israel. So that is why um that is what the missiles are and the Iranians say they also have newer missiles which

they will un show and un unfold at a later stage. They haven't reached that

later stage. They haven't reached that stage yet but that is waiting um to be um used and deployed at a at the right

moment. they have um they're quite

moment. they have um they're quite comfortable that they have huge missile stocks that they can continue um for a long war.

>> Let me ask the what about the consequences of taking out those radar stations? What does that mean in terms

stations? What does that mean in terms of uh deterrence capacity on the part of Israel and the United States?

It's enormously important because um these radars and the satellites are interconnected.

Um this is what in the Ukrainian context is known as the ISR. This was you know the great this was the deciding sort of

factor of NATO's support for Ukraine.

intelligence surveillance reconnaissance which took the data from radars, the data from um Awax, whatever it was

flying, put it together and created, if you like, a virtual battle map and that could be fed directly into a pilot. He

didn't even have to see the enemy plane or um the missile defense uh on the ground. They didn't even have to see it.

ground. They didn't even have to see it.

They just get the data coming in securely and then they can attack. Well,

now it was in the if you like Iran context, in the Ukraine context, this was the sort of the prize. yours here.

Oh yes, when it comes to firing missiles into Russia. Well, that is comes from

into Russia. Well, that is comes from the American data and it's highly classified. So, it has to be done by the

classified. So, it has to be done by the Americans because this is the battlescape map that is being provided

um the precise targeting and the adjustments to it being provided uh to the Ukrainians. Well, now what's

the Ukrainians. Well, now what's happened is um that it seems uh that uh

some state has now provided um uh Iran with the same ISR capabilities and that is hugely

important >> and and the loss of those radar stations in essence is that rendering Israel and the United States in essence blind to

what's coming in? Yes, but it's blinding them precisely precisely it blinds them.

Um, and what we're seeing, and this is what, you know, they uh, I don't know precisely, but I think they have some

advanced uh, radars that can detect and lock on to stealth aircraft to uh, a considerable distance, perhaps 500

kilometers uh, distance. And certainly

the Iranians are now able to lock on um that and when when I talk about lock on I'm talking about uh a defense missile

system whose radar is locked on to an enemy aircraft and that that is a very severe warning sign to that aircraft

that they're about to get a a missile arriving on them.

So, we're seeing Israel and the United States target uh what they're saying are uh ballistic missile depots, launch sites. Do you have any sense of how

sites. Do you have any sense of how successful those attacks are?

>> Yes. Well, I have a a good idea that they are not successful. Um and I say

that because um the Iranians have adopted uh a very decentralized command system and a decentralized

um if you like uh control of missiles system so that the missiles the I'm talking about the longrange missiles are

buried in silos across 57 districts um of Iran and Iran is the size of Western Europe. I mean this is not a

Western Europe. I mean this is not a small area and they are buried deeply and the big missiles, the serious

missiles can be fired are fired from underground through an underground silo.

They come straight out. There's no it's not a a moving, you know, there's not a moving launcher. They come straight out

moving launcher. They come straight out of the ground and they are and they are fired from there and they can continue to be fired from there even if command

and control is lost. They were set up with that sort of dead hand capacity. I

do know about this cuz I did at one time try and explain this to um the um American defense secretary at at then.

Uh and also that there were um short ship missiles buried deeply in into the cliffs around the sea. Um because this

is their deterrence is that these missiles will not be destroyed and will be able to go on firing because they are

autonomously controlled by each district with a plan that is given to them in advance of what they would do if the center and the command and control was

destroyed that they would continue to fight the war even if they had lost control. It was trial. I remember when I

control. It was trial. I remember when I was there in 2006 um in in in Lebanon with Hezbollah, but this is now the fuller version which has

been under preparation for for for for many years. And their deterrence

many years. And their deterrence essentially is even if you destroy us, you take out Thran, you take out the um

the command, the army, the IRGC, the war would still go on and Israel would be destroyed.

That is what they warn.

>> I worked in Iran as you did and one of the things that uh was a reality of the power structure in Iran is that power was decentralized >> into at least three factions. It did.

There wasn't a central power structure that was set up because they didn't want another shaw so I could get a visa from the ministry of guidance while the foreign ministry had banned me or vice

versa. I mean there was it was there was

versa. I mean there was it was there was a multi multi-polarity uh in terms of power systems and and let's I I have other questions but let's

just begin with the uh assassination the killing of the supreme leader and the hierarchy of uh the Iranian government uh and and according to Trump the second

tier what does that mean?

Um well the the the the the killing of the supreme leader I I I mean you you know the details. I mean he was at home

and uh his family was with him because they opted to look after him and they knew what was likely to happen. I mean

he was at his desk. I've been I've seen not inside his home but I've seen the the home which is in in North Thran. uh

it's a very humble straightforward building and he was working there and he he had said just before it um he said

I'm I'm 86 I'm semi-crippled I have my dignity but that's all that I have but which it was something that you

gave to me and I'm happy to give my life for the Iranian people whether we find that strange or not or whether we find

it you irrational.

That is how he thinks and he thought and it is part of the culture of Iran. The

idea of sacrifice and being willing to pay that sacrifice for the interests of your people, for your civilization, for

your religion. He was very popular. He

your religion. He was very popular. He

had a big following in Shia Islam. As

you know, they have a thing called um I suppose you call them the guides, maja.

This is the the the senior clerics. They

don't give instructions, but you choose which one you follow and you get their teaching, moral teaching, ethical teaching, you know, teaching about

marriage as well as everything else. Um

and he had one of the biggest followings not just in Iran but across the whole region. Um the supreme leader had a huge

region. Um the supreme leader had a huge following and so his death has really fired up Shi Islam not just in Iran but

in Iraq particularly but across the region and in Bahrain. Bahrain uh is probably closer to regime change than

any other state at this point. It's 70

to 80% shei and it is ruled by a Sunni king who has an all all Sunni protection force surrounding him and there are huge

protests and a huge demonstrations and there's a if you like um uh at this

time there is a a an uprising uh to to to remove him and there've been support coming in forces is coming in from Saudi Arabia across the bridge, but I I'm not

sure if the bridge still exists to Saudi Arabia to try and um uh rescue rescue him. So, it's had a big effect and there

him. So, it's had a big effect and there have been attempts to besiege the US embassy in Baghdad. Huge numbers of

protesters outside the Baghdad. There

were protesters in Pakistan besieging the consulate. uh and two or three of

the consulate. uh and two or three of these uh uh senior she leaders, religious leaders have have issued um

fatwis for jihad uh global jihad against the United States uh and Israel and these are being followed up and it and

it is having a a marked influence on particularly the Iraqi militias, the Hashad uh groups who are attacking inner

bill and they are also attacking um uh uh American air defense systems and American radar systems um throughout Iraq which are probably amongst the most

important because it's from Iraq that um Israel has been doing its standoff um uh firing its standoff

cruise missiles um into into Iran.

And we should note that at least 60% maybe more of the Iraqi population are Shia. Uh and when you talk about attacks

Shia. Uh and when you talk about attacks on uh that is the Kurdish area in the north controlled by the Kurds. Uh perhaps no ethnic group in the Middle East has been

used and discarded uh as much as the Kurds and it looks like they're about to be used and discarded once again. So

since you mentioned air bill, why don't you talk about this idea of arming Kurdish militias to go into Iran?

>> Uh I don't think it'll happen at all. I

don't think it it's um first of all uh there was in June when there was an attempt. Let me just paint the

attempt. Let me just paint the background because it's important. This

is part of the Israeli, if you like, ultimate plan for the future of Iran is

to fire up separatist elements, Kurdish, Beluchi Azeris all of these. They've actually written

separate constitutions, prepared con separate constitutions so that separate um if you like self-sufficient states

could be constructed in Iran to divide Iran into sort of ethnic divisions and

then the aim for Israel is then to have uh ethno uh sectarian conflict between

these states to leave um Iran weakened um in in chaos and unable in any way to threaten um Israel rather like we see in

Syria. Um that is not the American

Syria. Um that is not the American objective which is regime change. Just

to be clear, the American at the moment is simply to uh copy the Venezuela model

and to um if you like uh get rid of the the leader and that it was assumed there'd be a popular uprising and there would be a popular um if you like

takeover of the government and that Trump would do some sort of deal with a more amanable person and declare victory.

And that's why it was supposed to be a quick um operation. He keeps keep saying and talking about but you know I mean

Maduro it was the perfect operation.

Quick, clean, short. We did that. So we

just have to kill the Ayatollah and then we'll be in the same position and we can declare a victory and we can do that before the markets open on Monday. Uh

and of course it hasn't worked out like that. Instead of which there've been

that. Instead of which there've been millions coming onto the streets in Tehran. I mean it's Ramadan there but

Tehran. I mean it's Ramadan there but after the feast wi-i which marks the end of the day of fasting um in Ramadan I

mean the the the Tehran is just packed with pro um uh prostate um support support for the Islamic State.

Would it be too much of a stretch to say that this has ignited in the eyes of the Shia world a war against Shiism?

Um uh yes uh this is seen as uh if you like there is an overtone that not with

all of them but there is a tone of um jihad of holy war and this is being uh

of course this is being amplified by the fact uh that in in the United States uh some of the instructions for commanders

to brief their troops saying this is you know you know a God's war this and that Trump is the

instrument of God pursuing this war and that it was written in the Bible and there have been I I believe you know more than me but there have been many

protests amongst the military at these instructions that they've re received um calling it I mean so you know in a sense

this is a sort sort of escathological >> um element within the US and of course each it feeds each is feeding the others

escathological uh um sentiments.

>> So there's heavy military censorship uh imposed in Israel. I I you've worked there, I've worked there. It's hard from a distance to get a read as to how

effective the strikes have been. What

are your impressions?

>> Um, what you say is, uh, absolutely correct.

The censorship, I mean, is absolutely tight. Uh, anyone, uh, trying to film is

tight. Uh, anyone, uh, trying to film is immediately arrested or stopped. It's

very hard to get facts. But I I I I was listening to um Colonel Wilkinson

uh just recently who who was Colin Pal's um chief of staff in that time a ser a military man with much experience and he

said he had witnessed some real videos coming out of uh Tel Aviv and he said you know this is not AI this is the real

stuff that has come through and he saw watching a 15inute uh video and he said it is absolutely

devastating uh what is coming uh there it is relentless and it is continuous and you

see at the end of it you know there aren't even any uh intercept missiles firing uh at that point so I think you

know we don't know extent this was Tel Aviv. Uh but we know that missiles are

Aviv. Uh but we know that missiles are being fired across uh uh Israel. Um but

it seems that the damage is huge.

What the consequences will be in Israel is is not clear. We get very contradictory messages. You've probably

contradictory messages. You've probably heard them. Some people, you know, in

heard them. Some people, you know, in these things as in every war, you can be in one part and you say, well, nothing's happening. Everything seems normal and

happening. Everything seems normal and then, you know, you go 500 kilome meters in another direction and it's mayhem and

it is a disaster. Um, so it's difficult to get a a an overall a concerted picture, but I would say the damage far

exceeds that uh of the 12-day war even to date. And the

to date. And the Iranians intend to um slowly increase the number of these koramshar and these

hypersonic missiles which will be very difficult for either the United States or for uh Israel um to shoot them down

and to stop them. So um big damage is happening there across the Gulf. It has

been huge for American bases. There's no

doubt there. They've been they've been destroyed. I think the the intent of is

destroyed. I think the the intent of is of Iran um in the Gulf, it's particularly focused on the ports.

>> Yeah.

>> Across it. And I think the reason for that is because the the the fifth fleet

um which is based in D Bahrain um is has created a sort of a whole area around

right up to HOS and the Persian Gulf and even down to um if you like off Yemen there is a very small choke point naval

uh choke point in the south in order to control the corridors of energy to control the corridors of economic business. um through this process. And I

business. um through this process. And I

think the Iranians are in the process of of flipping this um uh from Bethamuk

right through to to to Hos to reestablish more of Iranian um if you

like hedgemony across the these areas and to stop the American um plan which was um I think

foreshadowed in a um national security statement the NSS released uh um not so long ago, a couple three months ago,

something Eldridge uh uh Colby Elbridge was supposed to be the author of most of it. But one of the things it it

it. But one of the things it it contained in it was the idea that China had to be coerced to change its economic

model away from exporting to consuming more. And you could do this by tariffs

more. And you could do this by tariffs or you could do this by what we've seen in Venezuela, naval blockades,

um sanctioning of ships, um attempt to create a siege. Um but also Russia increasingly is finding it's been under

the same sort of things. Um it's

so-called shadow fleet being sanctioned, sometimes seized. Um, and so there is a

sometimes seized. Um, and so there is a there's an impression, I think, in both Moscow and China

that America is intent on trying to inflict hurt on China um through these means through taking control and

establishing uh a sort of hedgemony over the sea lanes and the choke points. The

same of course in China with that first island um uh continuum which is being militarized by the United States

presumably to to eventually if needed um be um a siege condition uh on on China uh for vessels passing through that

narrow if you like uh seaway um by Indonesia into the China Sea uh and For Russia, it's important too because they

in the reverse way of of China, but they want to export uh their oil and gas and do not want that to be under siege and

cailed and squeezed. So we're seeing a sort of I believe a a really major geopolitical shift taking place. And so

although the focus we all talk about you know what's happening to the to the military and to the hotels where the military is staying but I think Iran's

um primary interest is to change the whole um situation the whole paradigm of

um the the the Gulf and the Red Sea and the sea lanes adjacent to it. um and to take those out of um the American

dominance which they've been under for all this period.

>> Let's talk about the straight of Hormuz.

It's a very narrow waterway. Iran has

shut it down. Uh you know more than I do, but my understanding is not only uh with the flick of a switch. Can they

mine and these mines uh are kind of autonomous? You can explain how they

autonomous? You can explain how they work. They also have missile batteries.

work. They also have missile batteries.

Uh one of the most uh amazing comments on the part of Trump was the idea that he would send US naval forces which is just asking for every single ship to be

blown out of the water. Uh and then also comment why uh in your view the United States has made such a priority of

destroying the Iranian Navy.

Um well yes I think to answer your second question first that is absolutely

what I'm talking about the aim to America's aim to create a dominance in the field of energy and to be able to

control China's economic ev evolution in its development and at the same time

reduce Russia 's economic prospects by controlling um not just oil and gas and of course Iran has both of those in

abundance but not just control that but to control go back to the old system the 19th century system of controlling the waterways and controlling the

checkpoints so that they can impose blockades and sieges on China uh and on Russia.

to further as part of their economic if you like vision. So I mean Iran is a a pawn in the bigger vision which is about

um if you like how to take out the bricks and how to if you like they can't I think militarily defeat China um but

simply to weaken it by withholding technology withholding oil and raw materials from China and China is returning the compliment to the to the

United States But nonetheless, this is what I think um they're trying to do. So

the the navy um the Iranian Navy, it has a few sort of legacy ships um frigots and things like that and and America has

just sunk a couple that were in harbor that but very elderly things. The the

main thing that um Iran has are these fast vessels, these speedboat vessels that have um uh shorter ship missiles.

They're equipped with shorter ship missiles and they have about I think 25 submarines, mini submarines, but they

can fire um anti-ship missiles from submerged uh state. Um, and these are much more uh dangerous to um shipping

than the old classic big big naval vessels. Um, but now it's been opened up

vessels. Um, but now it's been opened up because as you probably saw um the Iranians had sent an unarmed ship to a

courtesy call in India, a naval exercise that they'd been invited by the Indian government to participate in. And that

vessel was there and America sank it. A

submarine torpedoed it and sank it. I

think well over a 100 sailors were killed. Bodies are still washing up into

killed. Bodies are still washing up into Sri Lanka. Uh and some were saved but

Sri Lanka. Uh and some were saved but most of them have died. So I think you know it's quite clear I don't think that

Iran is going to um be particularly lenient about um and American naval ships trying to to guard uh a tanker or

or or a vessel going through a hormuz after they sank as I say a ship uh a courtesy visit by a naval Iranian naval

vessel.

at the invitation of the Indians and then someone passed on the details and it was sunk off Sri Lanka by a torpedo

um an American torpedo. So I think that is going to be much much much tougher.

By the way uh the the the width of the Homus is 21 km. So we don't even need to mine it. you can that is within

mine it. you can that is within sufficient range for artillery. So they

can just sit there and um you know select a vessel and fire artillery and let it catch fire and that's I mean it's

that easy.

When I heard Trump propose that, I thought of the Russian uh 1905 naval attack on the Japanese where uh it the

same kind of uh imperial disdain for the lesser race and the entire fleet was sunk. Uh which is what I would expect if

sunk. Uh which is what I would expect if they're foolish enough to go into the straight of Hormuz. One has to assume that the naval commanders will talk

Trump out of that folly. Uh I I want to talk about where this is going. It's

spread very quickly throughout the region. Uh obviously this will impact

region. Uh obviously this will impact the uh markets and prices of oil and gas, but just uh what are the

consequences you see of of what's happened?

Well, I would say that the consequences are are going to be felt very soon in

um particular in energy markets are already being seen because uh a huge amount of oil and gas of global oil and

gas passes through hormuse particularly for Europe. um the gas that comes from Gata um passes through Homos

and that has stopped and um Putin has said, "Oh, and by the way, we're looking at it, but possibly we'll decide we're not going to give Europe any any of our

gas since you've been turned your back on it anyway, so we will stop off." This

will be very serious economic uh consequences for Europe with their reserves of gas at an all-time low.

their their sort of their uh their their their their big um underground reserves at an all all-time low. But it's already

starting to um uh affect the oil price.

But also, I think it's going to affect many other things. I mean, first of all, there is the the the change that's taking place in the in the Gulf. I mean

the Gulf used to be known and thought of as a safe place for businessmen,

>> for investors and others and that um you know AI holidays, airliners, tourism

etc. I think that's not completely but largely that's over that that finished.

But already you're seeing and I've seen this that particularly Asian investors are taking all their money out of out of

um uh out of Dubai uh and the UAE and other centers in Gata and and repatriating them to Asia. I think of

course I don't know what they will take them to but I imagine it won't be the US dollar. I think it's very unlikely they

dollar. I think it's very unlikely they will take advantage of I either it will be the yen or it will be in the Shanghai

gold market for which there are um subsidiary markets which are not s uh controlled by China China's capital

control systems in Hong Kong and they will probably China's introduced a system of of warrants that you can buy warrants on physical gold not paper gold

but physical gold and hold those as a form as an alternative to US treasuries um uh uh uh which is much more

attractive anyway. So I think we're

attractive anyway. So I think we're going to see an effect on the dollar.

We're going to certainly see an effect on energy markets. Um for Europe it is going to be an incredibly dangerous

period um for um their economies. Um and

the consequence of all of this is I think that the markets which are usually usually so complacent you know um to any

geopolitical event. Oh you know I it'll

geopolitical event. Oh you know I it'll be over. I mean they were being briefed

be over. I mean they were being briefed by the intelligence services told because I know that from some of the fund um managers they were being briefed

you know 5 days it'll be 5 days it'll be done in 5 days so you don't have to worry keep the markets up keep the you know we want markets high and we'll uh

you'll be fine don't don't sell so I think uh then then we will see the the the consequences there what does it I mean, you know, this is going to be I

mean the there was a heavy military investment in these bases in the Gulf. I

mean, you know, trillions and is America going to come back? I think probably that's doubtful. And uh and in any case

that's doubtful. And uh and in any case that sort of the the the the sort of security that

the Gulf had felt which now turns out to be perhaps um not the wisest um judgment

that security is gone because the bases are gone. United States is taking care

are gone. United States is taking care of itself. it's not really taking much

of itself. it's not really taking much care of Saudi Arabia and they are feeling that and they are saying that you know when it comes to it they saying

you know they want all all the intercept missiles to go to Israel they're not sending any intercept missiles to us so I think the the the the atmospherics

are going to affect um the that economic paradigm that economic situation is going to affect um the energy situation

and um in terms of the United States and I I you know I don't want to trespass because you know 10 times more than me about this but I think it's going to

have uh consequences in the midterm elections. We can already see it's not a

elections. We can already see it's not a popular war. If it's a prolonged war it

popular war. If it's a prolonged war it will become less popular. Uh and Trump I think is getting quite desperate about

it. But I I think his way of dealing

it. But I I think his way of dealing with it is is actually going to be counterproductive. He I mean he you know

counterproductive. He I mean he you know he he keeps saying oh we've done great things you know we've sunk the Iranian navy we've destroyed their force. We're

destroying their missiles. But the

consequences of that is that no factual details are being fed out by the Pentagon. I mean put it bluntly. mainly

Pentagon. I mean put it bluntly. mainly

lying about what's actually happening on the ground. If I'm sure they know about

the ground. If I'm sure they know about it, but they lie. Okay, only six Americans have been killed in this and all the aircraft that have fallen were

all friendly fire uh incidents. I mean,

I think that with a little bit of time, the American public will realize that things were a little different from how

they've been projected and will be very angry about that. But because Trump says it's proving to be a great victory and victory is at hand, of course, the

Pentagon can't come out and say actually no, we've been decimated in these um in these bases in it. So they have to say no you know nothing really everything is

normal no change but of course time will you know events will reveal themselves in due course whether it's sometime in

the future but it will reveal what has really happened uh there and in Israel and there will be political consequences I

believe which will probably reshape much of the American political landscape. I mean, we're

political landscape. I mean, we're already, I think, seeing these, you you know more than I do, but we're seeing these in the way the Democrats are are

shifting their position on Israel and saying, you know, justly, I'm not saying abandoning it, but saying, listen, before elections come, we have to have a

serious discussion about exactly what is the relationship between the United States and Israel. Well, these things are quite important changes that I think

are starting. They haven't developed.

are starting. They haven't developed.

They aren't clear yet. Nothing is really um sort of solidifying into something one can say this is where it's going. I

think it's far too soon for that. But

nonetheless, you have that sort of sense that under the surface there's a lot of shifts and changes taking place in America just as they are in Europe.

So this is part of the greater Israel project. Gaza, of course, the de facto

project. Gaza, of course, the de facto annexation of the West Bank, a seizure of they already occupied the Golan Heights. They've pushed up almost to

Heights. They've pushed up almost to Damascus, uh, southern Lebanon, thousands to really tens of thousands of Lebanese being forced to flee the south.

Uh and I'm asking whether this war in your view uh which is an Israeli driven war without question is overreach on the part of Israel and the US and if you

feel that ultimately uh this uh threatens Israel existentially.

Um yes going through your questions the first one um I don't think it was thought

through by all the accounts I hear um the Americans did not expect what's happened in the Gulf even though Iran

had warned it it was public. Um

thirdly I don't think they've made any contingency plans. um for an energy

contingency plans. um for an energy crisis at all. I mean, the strategic reserve of America is near an all-time

low in terms of of of its um energy holdings, whereas China has been filling its uh strategic reserve seriously

during this period with Iranian oil. Um

I uh so I don't think so I and I don't think therefore uh either Trump or the leadership have any idea of what's happening in this war. Um and it's

really wishful thinking and bluster that that we are seeing or or where it's going. I think he still has and um

going. I think he still has and um others in Europe still have the idea that at a certain point Trump will say victory and we'll walk away from from

the war and that'll be it. It won't

because Iran is planning a long war.

It's not interested in talks now certainly after the killing of the supreme leader. It's not going to

supreme leader. It's not going to happen. they are going to pursue their

happen. they are going to pursue their um if you like their plans, their military plans. Um and of course the war

military plans. Um and of course the war as a consequences is spreading and widening. Um uh the question you asked

widening. Um uh the question you asked me about is it existential for Israel.

Uh, I think I would uncertain. I think

that Israel will never be what it has been until this point again. It it will be fundamentally changed.

The divisions on Israel are really profound. They're little seen by the

profound. They're little seen by the West because they only read the English language or, you know, look at the English language press. But it's a war

in in Israel taking place. I

characterize it as a a a war between the kingdom of Judea and the state of Israel. On the one hand, you have if you

Israel. On the one hand, you have if you like the body the of the right, the the Bengavier and the spot rich and the

religious nationalists and settlers but who are armed. I mean they are an army in themselves. And then on the other

in themselves. And then on the other hand you have the old legacy elements of Ashkanazi that is sort of European jury

um which is the military command um the judi judiciary the supreme court all of those have been almost defeated by

Netanyahu during this period and there is extreme bitterness uh about this the consequences of this and I think it's

very hard to see it not destroying itself because of what I keep saying to people that you cannot understand Israel

through a secular if you like a secular rationalist lens.

You have to understand it through the lens of an esqueological or even a messianic um sentiment because that is

what is uh driving the right. I remember

seeing a video of Smotri some years ago and and he was saying, "Well, we're going to get, you know, um we're taking back Gaza and we're taking back the West

Bank, etc., etc." And he said, "But you know what? What we need is really we

know what? What we need is really we need a huge crisis or a big war and then we'll complete our project." In other words, you can't say, "Oh, look, it's

silly. I mean, why would Netanyahu want

silly. I mean, why would Netanyahu want to, you know, to to launch this war against Iran? Because they welcome

against Iran? Because they welcome Armageddon. Many of them on the far

Armageddon. Many of them on the far right. It's not because they've got a

right. It's not because they've got a strategic calculus about it. They

believe that this is, you know, is as foretold and this is the way it is going to be and it's going to take us to redemption.

And this is the if you like the Messiah will come. Everything will change. And

will come. Everything will change. And

this is why I think it was so astonishing for me to hear almost the same sort of language being laid out in the general orders that were handed out

to commanders um from from um the Hex if you like side of of the United States.

not I think common view but but within a certain sort of element fragment of society it was still powerful so I don't

think so I think it's going to be long war the Iranians are are not about to surrender that why should they are in

the driving seat it's for America to lose this war not uh Iran uh wins it by

surviving And it wins it because of if you like the uh the symbolic

position of having defeated a mythical army that was invulnerable that couldn't ever be uh attacked or or defeated. So I

think it will be a long war and the consequences we can just glimpse a few of them but not really get map it out in a sort of

coherent structural way.

>> Let me just close by asking about the Palestinians what this means for the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

Does this give figures like Smootrich and others a cover to expel them?

Um uh yes that is what they that's how they are thinking. Uh but I think that um as Israel

or at least the military part of Israel gets closer to looking at their um reserves of munitions and their dwindling reserves of the munitions.

they are thinking about you know how can we deescalate and certainly if someone asks me what would be the demands of

Israel if there were to be which I don't see at the moment to be some sort of understanding I would say of course the

first thing would be the ending of all sanctions and tariffs on Iran and the return of all its frozen assets and

secondly the removal of um the Israeli troops from Gaza and from the West Bank.

>> The Iranian demands, >> Iranian demands. Iran has always supported the Palestinians. I mean, not

always in the field in that way, but it has been um a key element of Iranian um

um ethical perspective of the world. the

ethical principles has been the support for Palestinians.

>> Yeah. I just want to close having worked in Iran for many years and I believe you did too. The caricature of Iranians

did too. The caricature of Iranians including the supreme leader who was extremely literate. His favorite book, I

extremely literate. His favorite book, I believe, was Victor Hugo's lay miser rob is uh part of the problem in that uh they they have been turned into cartoon

characters and we're talking about a rich deep Persian culture and tradition.

Um they're not the people they're painted as.

>> I couldn't agree with you more. I mean,

it's a complete I mean, this is you put your finger on it. This is a catastrophe of miscognition.

They just don't understand. And what is more, there is absolutely zero empathy.

They review and treat the Iranians as Israeli subhumans.

>> Yeah. Great. Thanks. That was really, really brilliant. Thank you so much. And

really brilliant. Thank you so much. And

uh I want to thank uh Sophia, Diego, uh Thomas, uh Max, and Victor who produced the show. You can find me at

the show. You can find me at chrisedges.substack.com.

chrisedges.substack.com.