Capital Is Leaving Big Tech For Gold And Energy | Weekly Roundup

You want to hear my craziest subscriber story? This young kid from Germany

story? This young kid from Germany subscribed to my newsletter. Well, after

a year, he unsubscribed. I was like, "Oh my god, that sucks." And then a year later, he emailed me and he told me that he became a pimp.

>> Stop.

>> He He said So he sent me changed my life Jared.

>> Yeah, that's what he said. He said I taught him to be an entrepreneur. Before

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All right, everybody. Welcome back to another what do we want to call this?

Forward macro dirt.

>> Mashup.

>> Mashup. Mashup edition live in Nashville at the TG Macro conference. First

inaugural one. Dude,

>> man, that was something else, wasn't it?

>> Such a good time.

>> Holy crap.

>> Thank you very much. I feel, you know, I I was telling my wife like I'm never proud of myself, but I'm extremely proud of this. You know what I mean? Like it

of this. You know what I mean? Like it

feels really cool to have that emotion come over you and it's just because everybody floods you with, "Oh my god, that was amazing." You know what I mean?

And when you look at the roster that we had, man, not shocking you got that response.

>> Yeah. I got to give you some flowers for that a little bit. Like it's like I don't know. There's not many really good

don't know. There's not many really good macro conferences out there and just the the quality like you had what six speakers and just like >> all would be headliners anywhere and yeah it was it was awesome. What' you

think JD?

>> Dude, I'm just I'm glad you pulled it off. I'm very Me, too. I'm very proud of

off. I'm very Me, too. I'm very proud of you. I really am.

you. I really am.

>> Oh, man. Thank you. I mean, I've done six conferences.

>> Yeah, I know.

>> Um but um they were they were all smaller than this, you know, and this the logistics around this were a little more complex and it was it just went off without a hitch.

>> Yeah. This this was uh throwing a wedding, you know what I mean? And it's

there's so much like throwing a wedding because there's so many people, you know, you have your super close to you your whole life people in your family like my cousin Tony's here, my buddy John Bell and all that and then there's

like, you know, my awesome professional relationships like you guys and then there's 60 70 people that I never saw and never met before.

>> And >> and and they all want five minutes here.

>> Yeah. They all want to meet you and you want to give it to them, right? Because

that's why you, you know, you write to half of them and you want the other half to subscribe and you're like, >> you you and I both run our businesses pretty similarly. We do like cuz I try

pretty similarly. We do like cuz I try to treat my newsletter as a like a family business, like a small business.

Like I reply to every single email.

>> Yeah.

>> You know, I try to get to know people personally. I travel around the country

personally. I travel around the country to meet people. You do the same thing.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. Yeah. That's what it's about because that's what they appreciate. You

know, I feel like you win them over for life if you number one giving them an iota of good advice in the markets and number two giving them time as people.

>> Mhm.

>> For whatever reason, they look up to you. I you know, they they look up to

you. I you know, they they look up to you for having some answers that they don't have, right? And it's it's not really anything else. It's just like your your brain aligns with something that helps them and they don't align

with that necessarily. So, I guess there's a lot of uh gratification in being able to help people and hear them say like, "Dude, like I have I've had people that tell me, "Dude, you made me so much money on that GDX X."

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

>> You know, stuff like that. And then what were we talking about?

>> JD and I were talking about it with a really big wealth manager that was here, a friend of mine, named Tom. And he was like, "You two guys, since you started

writing, how much money collectively would you think that you could have made people?" And I was like, I couldn't even

people?" And I was like, I couldn't even come up with that number. And JD was like, tell him said this is hundreds of millions. That blew me right. Yeah.

millions. That blew me right. Yeah.

>> Wow.

>> Yeah. I mean, look, like things have been really good in the last couple years. Uh, I had a I had a tough I mean,

years. Uh, I had a I had a tough I mean, I've I've gone through, you know, tough stretches in the markets where I basically was flatlining for a couple of years.

you know, you get a little churn in the subscribers, but you know, the last two years has been fantastic.

>> Yeah.

>> You feel like what's what's so cool, too, is just the the nexus of this like >> anti-traditional media macro community that we have like coming here >> and you know, this is your conference, your audience, but I had tons of people

come to feed be like, "Oh man, like love your guys' for guidance show." Like

there's this core group of people >> that are just like it's it's cool to do these collaborations. It's cool to see

these collaborations. It's cool to see that audience. Cool to meet these

that audience. Cool to meet these people. Like it's just it's awesome to

people. Like it's just it's awesome to see it all come together. The thing that I was most excited about to come was obviously great guest lineup of Jared and Cuppy and Grant speaking and

everybody for those listening you you got to be here in person because everyone has their stick, right? Brett's

got the dollar milkshake, CPY writing about feudalism. JD, you know, you

about feudalism. JD, you know, you follow his newsletters and they have their views. But these were all unique

their views. But these were all unique presentations. These were all unique

presentations. These were all unique ideas, lasting ideas. And also, but but even more than that, you can tell people the quality of a person by who they surround themselves with. And that was

why I was most excited. People are

gravitated towards Tony for the what he gives off like smart trading insights, teaching people how to think.

>> We got three out of four.

>> Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Smart debate.

But >> but it it and so I was just excited to see the the type of people that were going to be here and and when you sat down the first day and the room was just chalk fill standing room only >> and you're talking to the guys. He's one

guy's a logger, one guy's a minor, one guy's a woodworker and it's like all these people with the same like, you know, curiosity and motivation.

>> You want to hear my craziest subscriber story?

>> I had this uh this young kid from Germany subscribe to my newsletter. His

name was Stefan. And um and like three months later, I threw a party in New York at a club >> and he flew from Germany to the party

>> and had a great time. Well, after a year, he unsubscribed. I was like, "Oh my god, that sucks." And then a year later, he emailed me and he told me that he became a pimp.

>> Stop.

>> He He said So he sent me >> You changed my life, Jared. Yeah, that's

what he said. He said I taught him to be an entrepreneur and it doesn't matter how he >> sent me the website. I mean, it's like eurosu.com or something like that. And

and he's like, "Will you please promote it in your newsletter?" I'm like, "No, >> like scratch my back. That's your

right."

>> That takes the cake. That's

>> Oh my god. It's like, "By the way, I sell a little heroin." Yeah,

>> you want to tell that to your guys so they know >> that's so classic weasel in to like self-promote your >> Yeah. So subscriber experience is really

>> Yeah. So subscriber experience is really kind of cool, you know? It's it's this one-on-one thing and uh you get you get paranoid when you have people jump off or whatever, you know, and then you

realize that it's always it's never you, >> you know? It really isn't like it's like you know you get paranoid that people jump off and then and they'll fill out the I have an exit survey you know so when somebody leaves the newsletter I

just love to know why and every time people are like man I am like getting killed over here this changed for me I don't watch the markets and you look at it and you're like okay I don't want people that are tra not trading the markets to pay for this like this

doesn't do you any good so that's fine so >> and you have guys go and start uh brothel >> do what you got to do >> you Um, >> yeah. I want to talk a little bit about

>> yeah. I want to talk a little bit about some of this. Obviously, you know, you got to be here to get the the real good stuff, but just want to talk a little bit about some of the stuff that we heard. JD, you you kicked things off

heard. JD, you you kicked things off yesterday. You had a

yesterday. You had a >> a chart bonanza, I think.

>> Oh, there's the chart ban.

>> The chart bonanza just bang bang. I

think that was like over 100 charts.

But, uh, what was your favorite chart out of there? What was what was your most interesting takeaway?

>> Uh, my favorite chart, and I've actually used this in a couple of presentations, is the chart that shows the rates of marriage among different age cohorts.

Yes, that was >> um you know like 1940s, 1950s, people born in the 40s, '50s, ' 60s, '7s, and once you start getting to the '9s, like

it drops off in 2000s, like people are not getting married.

>> And uh I, you know, I don't know what we need to do to promote marriage as an institution. Um, but when people get

institution. Um, but when people get married, that's when all the economic benefits acrew.

>> Like people make more money, their salaries go up, they buy houses, they have kids, like and it is literally falling apart like in the younger generations.

>> Everybody talks about it and they're just like, "Oh, wow. That's crazy." But

no one just extrapolates the 20 years ahead where it's like you have no population growth. Yeah. And it's a

population growth. Yeah. And it's a global thing. It's happening in Europe.

global thing. It's happening in Europe.

Japan's ancient like and everyone just assumes it fixes itself, which Yeah. It

doesn't with any good thing unless you attack it head on.

>> Yeah. So I don't I don't really I don't really know what the solution is. I mean

the different countries have tried different things. I you know I mentioned

different things. I you know I mentioned Poland which uh gave this lifetime tax amnesty. If you had three kids then you

amnesty. If you had three kids then you don't have to pay taxes ever again. It's

kind of an interesting concept. Um but

um it one of the interesting things that the social scientists have figured out was it's not just cohabitation, right? Like couples that cohabitate but

right? Like couples that cohabitate but don't get married don't get the same benefits. It happens when people get

benefits. It happens when people get married, you know? So I mean the I mean it's kind of an interesting chart. Why

is this at a macro conference? Well, you

know, it has all kinds of implications out for the next 20 years about incomes and consumption and debt and all this stuff and the housing market. Like, you

know, that's that's the chart when I look at it, I'm like, it just blows my mind. You know,

mind. You know, >> one of the charts I like that you showed was the that the household sector massively deleveraged. We've talked

massively deleveraged. We've talked about that on our show and and how the the problems at the >> the sovereign level and how that feeds into a secular inflation regime because there's actually a lot of ample room for

releveraging in the household sector when you when you think about the policies that they're going to have to implement to to fix the national debt problem i.e. grow their way out of it

problem i.e. grow their way out of it via you know nominal inflation and uh poor real asset return. You know what's you know what here's an interesting idea. Somebody told me this like 10

idea. Somebody told me this like 10 years ago as kind of a solution to the national debt. Like we used to have

national debt. Like we used to have savings bonds. We used to have the

savings bonds. We used to have the double e savings bonds. Well, Obama got rid of the program. He wanted to cut like 800 jobs in Pittsburgh where they process these things. And then he

started the myra program which was like you invest online and you get like a portfolio of treasury bonds. It's kind

of like a mutual fund. And Trump killed that. It got 20 million in assets. It

that. It got 20 million in assets. It

was a complete failure. The the

interesting thing is is that if you had a president who said, you know, going back to the 40s, we had war bonds to finance the war, right? What if what if

Trump or somebody said, "Look, like this is a patriotic thing to buy savings bonds and they offered like a decent rate of return." I mean, household net

worth is what, like, you know, 50 trillion, 100 trillion. Like you could you could potentially finance the debt very easily with a campaign that >> maybe tariff refund bonds.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Interesting.

>> It's pretty wild.

>> Yeah. Um I think another big theme that we're hearing at this conference is half the camp of of the speakers that you had come here were talking about uh you know we had you had Doomberg here which was awesome and you know it was really great

to see him walk in in his big uh green bird costume.

>> He was like I didn't see that.

>> Oh.

Ah, we got you.

>> Yeah, look at the unicorn.

>> Yeah, that that would have been sweet.

He's had the weekend >> when he was doom. I've seen him uh present like probably eight or 10 times now. And I I I'm so glad that I asked

now. And I I I'm so glad that I asked him to gear it a little bit towards trading and risk management and then he just took it and knocked it out of the park.

>> Yeah.

>> You know what I mean? Like that.

everything from his yolo story to, you know, exploiting an edge and and, you know, giving people confidence to sell an oil rally. Like, that was cool. Like,

I have confidence to sell an oil rally after what he said. You know, I will be in the weeds waiting for that.

>> Well, I'll tell you what, today's Friday. Today's the day to sell oil.

Friday. Today's the day to sell oil.

>> Yeah. You know, because we're not going to attack Iran over the weekend. It's

going to open up four bucks lower on Monday.

>> Yeah. I mean, it might have already adjusted to that, you know, as we speak.

Who knows? But that was really great.

>> Yeah. I mean, that's what like there's an interesting I don't know if he he was who said it, but he was comparing it to, you know, when you're trying to long the VIX, like it's a decaying asset. And

yeah, you can go long for a little bit to to catch those those reversions, but his perspective was that, you know, secularly, you're you're fading human ingenuity if you're long commodities.

Um, and you know, this conference like it had a lot of pretty bullish commodity guys in the space and he came out here and just said, "Look, on a long-term horizon, like you can't own commodities unless you're just hating on human

ingenuity. I'm curious how you

ingenuity. I'm curious how you >> I 100% agree with that and I am hating on human ingenuity, >> you know, because all of human progress is three steps forward and two steps

back, right? You have three steps

back, right? You have three steps forward and two steps back." And I am an in Tony is not, but I am an investor who makes money on the two steps back,

right? Like that is that is an

right? Like that is that is an environment that I'm comfortable trading. I like to short things. Pretty

trading. I like to short things. Pretty

good at it, you know? Like I I correct me if I'm wrong, but you probably have a tougher time in that environment.

>> I'm horrible in that environment. I

don't like to do that. I'm not

comfortable short. I don't literally I it's it's a 10x degree of difficulty if you ask me shorting stocks in a bull market anyway. You know what I mean? You

market anyway. You know what I mean? You

get literally, it's one of the things where as soon as you feel good about the position, that means you should probably be covering some. You watch charts that you're short spike lower and you're like, "Oh, this thing is about to

collapse." And it ves back up to where

collapse." And it ves back up to where it was. And I just can't manage that.

it was. And I just can't manage that.

That's not the way my trading goes well.

Like I I have more confidence from what >> But it's good that we do the macro dirt.

People get both sides of it.

>> Yeah. Totally. We give people both both edges to lean on.

>> Yeah. That's the best. I mean it feels like right now as we're in sort of that two steps back situation for commodities because suddenly we're like oh crap we've underinvested in commodities for the past decade and now we have all

these scarcity situations with AI buildouts or what have you and it feels like it's one of those times where there is that that that two-step back that you can ride on but it's also good to keep in mind the long-term horizon that

eventually there will be those three steps forward eventually.

>> Well sorry was I going to interrupt you?

Oh, not at all. So um it's good to have commodities in your portfolio all the time anyway as a divers means of diversification right because

commodities are low correlated or negatively correlated to stocks or bonds you need to have some real assets with your financial assets that's where the whole awesome portfolio comes in

>> and it provides a level of diversification that you can't get with a 60/40 portfolio >> you know I agree completely new secular to triangulate uh you know each speaker

had their own views there's a lot of bullish gold undercurrents through everybody I would say particularly as well Doomberg who's who identified gold as a monetary commodity versus

>> indity basket basically yeah >> but one of the things I was looking for were commonality themes throughout people that sort of zeroed in on where I could find confluence in an asset class

to behind everybody's use and one of them was you have Duneberg talking about, you know, gold's different. It's

a monetary hedge against, you know, all the the craziness outgoing. Um, and and there's this downward overtime pressure on oil, which is a large input cost to

uh miners, for example. So, you think of that backdrop and then you have JJ who's, you know, absolute commodity guru spent decades in trading the pits and his stories were just I know we want to

talk about those. we'll get there.

>> Um and and and you can find these threads which is for me around gold miners because you do you might get these spikes in oil on geopolitical whatever but we know a key agenda item

is to keep you know oil and gas prices lower. Meanwhile, nothing behind the

lower. Meanwhile, nothing behind the gold thesis is changing outside, you know, short-term overbought, you know, craziness. And and so you combine the

craziness. And and so you combine the secular tailwind for the miners revenue and a secular headwind for you know getting oil prices down.

>> That is powerful, right? That is

powerful. That's why I think that they could be up 200% in a year because they're crushing it on the higher metal prices. They haven't even reported those

prices. They haven't even reported those quarters yet that they're crushing. You

know what I mean? They probably leave some in the tank >> of earnings. You know what I mean?

>> This week they reported a lot. Like

they're delevering like never before.

They don't know. They have so much cash they don't know what to do with it.

>> Yeah. the the the gold miners if gold stayed at 5,000 for the next 10 years the gold miners are still a triple from here.

>> Yeah. Right. Even if gold doesn't go up.

>> Yeah. Everyone's so scarred for them still. Like company company's

still. Like company company's presentation which you know it's it's that's what makes markets interesting and cyclical though because it's like you get burned trying to touch the gold

miner long for 10 years. everyone and

that's why we're seeing GDX price vertical but actually GDX shares decreasing because you're still not having that blowoff.

>> Yeah, I there I think I think the GDX shares outstanding I mean there's a lot of funny stuff with ETFs there structured products on them and stuff like that like I don't think I don't

think it's I don't think it's really a measure of sentiment in Meyers. Um, but

having said that, like for years I just sold puts on GDX. I would sell slightly out of the money puts. They would go down. I I would get signed. I would buy

down. I I would get signed. I would buy the stock. I just sold puts on it for

the stock. I just sold puts on it for years and then I bought a bunch of GDX and finally worked, you know. So there's

one there's one word of caution that I think I would have about the certainty of oil prices going down and that's if if real money comes after it. You know,

it's like everybody's like, well, there's so much there's so much refined product that floating around in the harbor and there's plenty of oil and this and that. And so it's like that until one or two or three large funds

right after the other decide to commit a couple hundred million bucks to that proper to that trade and then next thing you know that covers that inventory that was sitting over there that can essentially be off the market because this guy is putting that money in and

taking the position off the market. So

that stuff happens fast and if you get a whole student body right we got to own oil for whatever reason like were the oil dynamics any different when it spiked to 130 on the Russia Ukraine invasion? I thought that that out there

invasion? I thought that that out there were very different. Yeah.

>> You know what I mean? But it was a a blatant epicenter, you know, attack on production areas and potential danger to the straight or whatever. But I feel like investment money, investment

capital can come and take that oil off the market for sure. So I I I try not to get too worried about it. And I I like oil stocks, you know, they're they're speaking to me. Right.

>> Yeah. I was going to say the producer situation like that is just I mean this is something also Dember talked about is just like >> yeah own own the producers the picks and shovels the ones where >> yeah you can actually get those consistent free cash flows happening

regardless of where where the actual commodity goes over the next few years just stays flat they're going to be great and then you have those tailwinds I mean I think all four of us are in the camp here of this big rotation coming

out of the tech trade out of the mag sevens into those other sectors and just how freaking small those sectors are like that is a behemoth Look at Staples over the last month. It's just going

>> insane. Gone vertical.

>> insane. Gone vertical.

>> Insane. Why is that?

>> Basically, everything came out of tech and it went into basics, energy, staples, and utilities, >> which is funny because there's cyclicals and defensive, which you know, exactly.

>> Which the def the staples is a little re the front running the tariffs because they just got strong. So that was that was probably that. The funny thing about this XLE, you know, the producers for

energy is they've all gone vertical and oil's kind of done this and you know the bears are saying ah that's just the geopolitical premium for Iran.

Meanwhile, the producers every single day these XL O offshore onshore small cap whatever and it reminds me of the gold miners because this happened back was it last year? I think you were might

might have been talking about in the navigator where it's like okay gold's still chopping in this consolidation but miners are going vertical something someone knows something and then gold

followed it in a big >> and and I I have powerful yeah you have to you have to you know keep that in your back of your mind and I would I instead

of me selling the oil spike here I'm more of a buy the or >> buy the breakout or buy the you know Oh, the rand war is not happening. You know,

comes off as a five 10 >> bucks. Yeah, that's fair. Yeah.

>> bucks. Yeah, that's fair. Yeah.

>> So, right back into value.

>> I I think we should talk a little bit about Cuppy's presentation around fuelism because I think it goes it's kind of contrary to a few of the things we've just been talking about. Like, you

know, if you're super bullish on I don't know metals or cyclical industrials and that sort of thing. Like he he brought this thesis of what if we're you know he was looking like why does why is

everybody so bummed on consumer sentiment? Why is everybody sad? Why is

sentiment? Why is everybody sad? Why is

everybody frustrated? why does

everything feel so kind of shitty right now? And he's like, maybe we're just in

now? And he's like, maybe we're just in a recession and it's just not as obvious because of things like AI capex and just curious how you guys took away from from that perspective.

You want to go JD?

>> Yeah, I mean the sentiment numbers I think reflect a lot of things other like other than the labor market, other than the economy. Uh I think it I mean

the economy. Uh I think it I mean honestly I think it reflects politics. I

think people are so disillusioned with I mean look politics are nuts right now.

Polarization it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse and uh I I really I really think it has something to do with that like apart from the economy you

know but I'm just I'm not really sure now. It's a tough one. I appreciated his

now. It's a tough one. I appreciated his S&P versus gold chart, right? He's like

you know what you everybody's saying the stocks are so great. like they can't even keep up with the ped rock, you know. And that's fair, you know, even

know. And that's fair, you know, even though we have a generational breakout in gold, it's still like you you would you would think that that's maybe enough of a riskon move because it's a gold's not like a flight to safety because of

war or anything like that. So like

people are buying gold, buying commodities. That's like a riskon trade

commodities. That's like a riskon trade mentality atmosphere. And he's right.

mentality atmosphere. And he's right.

It's like why I mean stocks could be AK at on the S&P right now. And the fact that they're not is kind of disappointing to me. And I guess makes sense that it's not keeping up with gold is not a good thing.

>> So yeah, go ahead.

>> Well, the last two gold's volatility when it peaked out on that big rip higher was only higher two other times in history which was COVID March crisis and GFCO8.

>> Oh wow.

>> And so that's that's a a you know rarity of a signal that's like okay something's weird here. Something's weird. And but

weird here. Something's weird. And but

accompanying those you had 30% equity draw downs and here you don't. And I

think it's I the run it hot narrative I think it will be tested because the Fed's on hold until you know new blood um you know TVD if if the e economic

reaceleration still needs some liquidity help to really stick here. Um but that that to me is is powerful. I think there is, you know, a lot of government

intervention, papering over the cracks because it's not a US thing. It's it's a Japan thing. It's a Europe thing. So, by

Japan thing. It's a Europe thing. So, by

the way, you mentioned uh you mentioned gold volatility around 2008. Uh I don't know if you remember this, but gold peaked in 2008 at a,000 when Bear Sturds

blew up and then it traded off until the Lehman blow up when it bottomed at 700.

and never saw the price >> and never saw that price again.

>> Well, that that that's to go to the points too about like we've kind of had this vertical ascent where it's been the magic carpet ride to like Valhalla for for gold investors thinking like it just

goes straight up with no V. And you

don't get good V without bad V when when it goes from 15 to 40. And so, you know, these things are just part of a new market structure for for this remonetizing remark, you know,

capitalizing asset. And you're gonna

capitalizing asset. And you're gonna have that like 20% dips and unfoldable assets. Not

assets. Not >> I think there's something to be said too for just I mean you were talking about this in your presentation this morning about how you look at bonds as an accelerometer for your for your positioning and >> you know when you look at the job

support that we had a couple weeks ago and the reaction of bonds since then rallying like crazy even though it was a gang busters job sprint. It's like what do you what do you take from that? It's

obviously it's not quite as obvious that the environment that we're in of just you know the run at hot basement stuff if bonds are rallying off a hot job sprint they're they're rallying but they're not trending.

>> Yeah. So I'm not paying attention to it.

Right. And if they get to a level that's interesting enough to show or they start price action starts showing that they can actually trend out of the range that they're in which is a pretty tight one.

You know what's been the what's the inside range? You could argue that the

inside range? You could argue that the inside range in 10 is like 20 basis points wide right like bit and 420 or maybe I don't know. I don't even know what the exact number is, but you if you

can have faith, if you operate from a position of bonds are mean reverting, that's it, right? There's push and pull.

I get it. But they're not going to take me out of my equity trade. That's the

most important thing for me. This

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>> Yeah, I think bonds are also I think, you know, after Worsh was nominated, >> um I think bonds I think bonds are frontrunning Worsh a little bit.

Once once the market figured out like you know the initial reaction to war was like oh my god he's a hog >> oh my god >> how did Trump not know this

>> A HOG OH MY god as if Trump interviewed for 18 months to put a guy in there who's going to hike right now >> really I just want to tell like >> that's the that's the TDS at full play

they're just like you know he doesn't know what he's doing it's like dude >> everybody else so so just made a lot of comments about how, you know, AI and

these other deflationary forces allow you to lower rates and, you know, a bond is really um at its core just the future path of

Fed funds, right? So, two-year notes are really the future path of Fed funds, but 10-year notes are too just over a long long time horizon.

>> So, um I think what the yield curve looks like under Wars is you have twos at two to two and a half and you have tens at three and a half

and the curve is 100 basis points steep.

Um but you know a move to three and a half on tens is pretty big.

>> Yeah.

>> Uh and that's going to get mortgage rates down to about five and a half uh which does all kinds of interesting things. So that's that's kind of what I

things. So that's that's kind of what I think the yield curve looks like under war.

>> I agree steeper. I don't agree that low but I agree steeper. One thing I do agree with you and you in your secular bearish dollar view is and how I like to think about why you know even if you might be sort of some people are very

bullish I'm seeing on on the finick community on bonds here because the AI deflation pos potential um but a bond is just dollars in the future and so you

know I I just can't get myself to buy them even for that type of trade because I don't want to do anything with dollars in the future. I think it's new to look at the the second order effects like I

agree I think a major or significantly steeper curve is likely and it's interesting to look at what drunken mailers 13S just came out last week and he went long XLF financials and you know he's he's the guy that is tapped into

wars he's tapped into Bess like he is part of that complex and he's going to buy financials that's pretty interesting if you contrast that with a steeper yield curve which is great for >> babes yeah he also bought Brazil he

bought which is one of my favorites Um regard I mean look like Brazil is

uh look Brazilian politics are even more nuts than US politics. Uh you know Lulu seems like a done deal for the next election but anything anything can happen

>> and you know Brazil is trading it like six times seven times you know with massive dividend yields. Um, you know, it's like anytime you see a country

that's trading at a 6p with a 6% dividend yield, that's basically where the US was in 1982, right? Which was the

best time to buy stocks in history, you know? So, I'm I'm not too wound up about

know? So, I'm I'm not too wound up about who's going to be president of Brazil.

Like, when stuff gets that cheap, you just have to buy it.

>> Yeah. I mean, when it gets that cheap and the dollar is where it's at right now, so it's like about to fall off a cliff like >> and and and the reality keeps rallying.

You know, the reality just it's relentless. It just keeps rallying.

relentless. It just keeps rallying.

There was that there was that blip uh a month or two ago when Bolsinaro's son was going to run for president, uh which screwed everything up, but like it it recovered and it just continues to

rally. So,

rally. So, >> Drop also had some calls at the bottom there on Macro Dirt LLC private equity.

>> That'd be cool.

Um, yeah. I think you guys are on opposite ends on the US equities versus international. Are are you learning

international. Are are you learning that?

>> No. Like, look, I I I'm not I'm not smart enough to be in I really don't have the intellectual capacity to try to be a global huru. You know what I mean?

It's like if if th I'm fine if those stocks outperform, but it's like if if Europe is up I was saying this to somebody the other night. if Europe is up 23% one year and the S&P is only up

16%. Like does that mean that I still

16%. Like does that mean that I still can't print 3540% trading around this stuff? So like I just stayed US-

stuff? So like I just stayed US- ccentric because I'm a trader, you know what I mean? Like I don't >> I I understand that there's value and things like that to invest in on the long term, but I don't feel like as long as we're in a bull market and I have

sectors and breakouts and things that I can trade and things that I can upsize when I get confident about it, I don't really need to leave the continent. I

just keep it simple. You know what I for better or for worse, but it's been working for me.

>> That there's one question that like this theme it's it's common. I think it goes to like the low consumer sentiment where it's like, you know, wealth managers and this isn't at this, but you just hear this sentiment a lot where it's like,

oh, you know, with equities at all-time highs and this going on and the craziness of polit this sort of like mopey depress like what do you invest in? And it's like there's a 100 bull

in? And it's like there's a 100 bull markets out there market somewhere.

>> There's bull markets if you know here's here's interesting one. If you look at a list of the top performing assets in 2025, gold miners were at the top uh and a bunch of other stuff and pretty close

to the top of the list was international small cap value which was up 46% in 2025.

>> Wow.

>> You know, I mean every Latam market, that's why I'm bullish Miami real estate because you got the New Yorkers in California is coming down and then every Latam stock market up 100% year-over-year.

>> Yep. Does this make sense?

>> Um, you had Grant Williams to close things out, >> man.

>> Legend.

>> Yeah. Legend. Uh, you know, he his presentation is just crisp and well thought out and just like a very peaceful thing for your mind to go through. You know what I mean?

through. You know what I mean?

>> Um, >> I don't think you come out of it with trade ideas, which is why I liked it.

You know, I mean, what I loved about it was that he brought up Tony Dayton as like an actual topic. Yeah.

>> You know, because that's something that I've clearly been I mean, I mentioned it like 10 times. I've been obsessed with that interview just because there's so much wisdom coming out of that guy's mouth that you really don't want to miss it. And uh so I'm glad that he brought

it. And uh so I'm glad that he brought that up in the ideas of you know patience and uh scarcity and um you know things that last are things that wait

that that's how you want to think you know and it's kind of it kind of just fits into the idea of you know for a trader it's like just kind of causes you to just exercise more patience and try to be a little bit slower moving and

kind of figure out things that you can be in and just leave >> you know like it's it's it's hard to trade around things but you can do it and make money, but it's also nicer to just be in it and watch it run. You know

what I mean? So, that was kind of interesting. And then I got confidence

interesting. And then I got confidence from that. Not not to switch subjects

from that. Not not to switch subjects too far, but Brent's Brent's Brent does a very good way Brent has a good mode of being understatedly bullish the US.

>> Yeah.

>> You know what I mean? He's like he's like you know like he kind of has that attitude like look everybody likes to throw rocks at the United States right now and we don't get fair media coverage and then he comes goes and tells you

this is how it big beautiful bill the reindustrialization of America the genius act the stable coin plan Steven Friedberg running the you know office of

strategic capital like you don't want to fade this stuff I'm telling you you know what I mean and like you agree with that you know and it's just everything gets such a negative connotation in the press because it's Trump's, you know, admin and everything that we're doing has to

be negative. And he's like, I'm not

be negative. And he's like, I'm not seeing it that way. You know, he's like, he's pretty bullish the US and thinks that this stuff is going to fall through. So, my favorite slide from his

through. So, my favorite slide from his was the the like quadrant of of Soros, Desscent, and and uh Worsh. And you know if you're

a student of the game and markets like you know it doesn't dro Soros you know politics is have kind of divided but you know it doesn't get any brighter than this and when you're sitting there

you're just like you know I tr like these guys are magnificent and >> yeah every the corruption when they get to DC and these sorts of things but but when it comes to making the right you

know and I'm a big believer that the US's deep capital markets is what allows us to have such a powerful strong economy, sovereignty etc. you know, above all else, um, which we lose sight

of when things are going so good, then we get into the social issue where it's like, I know, first world problems, but, um, if you have that, you know, guidance at the helm,

>> um, you can kind of disagree with all the things around the edges and the >> what's going on, but, uh, but you have to find some, >> you know, shy or

>> that it's gonna it's tumultuous. And

sometimes I feel like we as a society and media point a lot of fingers and and hatred towards the people that are actually shining the light on the problems attempting to fix it saying >> you started this problem. It's like

>> maybe I'm trying to fix it and you didn't know about the problem until I started trying to fix it because everybody else lied to you and tried kicking the can another 10 years.

>> And so I think education around that sort of thing is >> I mean when you bowl down the like first principles of of the those guys, right?

Like if if you rewind 5 years ago and you told somebody who's super into macro or whatever that you know the the the Soros Chuck and Miller alumni is going to be running the Treasury and Central Bank, everybody would be ecstatic.

>> The problem is that they're all but they're all they're all in on the debasement trade stuff and they're like, "Oh no, now Wars is going to blow up my debasement trade." So they're upset even

debasement trade." So they're upset even though if they didn't have those positions on, they didn't know who the president was. They just saw those

president was. They just saw those people in charge of those areas.

>> I think a lot more people would be excited about what's happening.

>> Yeah. People have a hard time keeping two truths together as well because you can see that and be like, "Oh, I'm bullish the US because these guys leading." But I'm also bullish gold

leading." But I'm also bullish gold because that was all their biggest positions because they know that to get us back on the right ship, we actually need to debase. We need to do some of these things. That's good for gold.

these things. That's good for gold.

>> So, people have a hard time holding multiple crews. That's true.

multiple crews. That's true.

>> That's true. It's a tricky uh It's a tricky landscape.

>> It's a tricky landscape right now.

>> Yeah. Big time.

>> Any other big takeaways for the last couple days, guys? I love JJ's story, man. I literally JJ's story about

man. I literally JJ's story about trading, that live real time experience that he relayed was blew my mind, man.

>> So, he's like a longtime commodities pit trader.

>> He's been now you guys 70s, man.

>> So, I met him the first time when I for Goldman Sachs, I worked on the floor for a little while. I went down to be their gold options broker and also had to do

some spot trading in gold on floor. And

JJ was like one of the biggest guys down there and with the best reputation and like the most studious dude and like just had it all going on. And you can see how he breeds markets, you know,

like it's so different.

>> What's his what's his uh I'm not what's his educational background?

>> Trying to think where I went to college.

>> Yeah. I mean that's kind of my point like Yeah. I got to tell you the

like Yeah. I got to tell you the disappearance of open outcry trading has been a very bad fit.

>> Oh yeah. I mean, maybe maybe not necessarily in terms of transactions costs and slippage and stuff like that, >> but an open outcry exchange was a place

where any kid or any could walk in >> and compete. Yeah.

>> And learn and and and make a living.

Like nowadays, if you're coming out of college, your your options are like 10 banks.

>> Yeah.

>> Right. And you have to have a Harvard education, a Yale education. your resume

has to be like 4.0 GPA, activities, stuff like that. They're only taking like these blueb bloodoods kids. Like

any jerk could walk in off the floor and be a millionaire, you know, that that there was the democratization of competition kind of thing, right?

>> You know, Talib was a floor trader. I

don't know if you know that, but he used to trade bond options.

>> Yeah. Right. Yeah.

>> Well, I mean, Gary Cohen, who ran Goldman Sachs, was freaking silver spread trader essentially. But that is the the beautiful thing about the floor.

But listening to that story, you know, made you realize how what what surgeons those guys really were. Oh yeah.

>> You know what I mean? And especially on hectic days like he described where he blew up his entire account and still had the position on and it was still limit

down offered.

>> Do you know what that feels like, man?

That is an out-of body experience. Like

you can't even believe. like you don't you just you work on gut instinct and then it was cool to see his instincts take over and be like oh I got to do >> Bobby XYZ just bought 700 from him down

40 cents okay let's you know that's a value trade somebody knows what they're doing I'm in you know like just that keen sense that floor guys had

he got his money back or most of it you know what I mean and but but trembling like down a million bucks with the market still open and the things limit down it's like I had a lot. I brought me to tears. I swear to God. And then

to tears. I swear to God. And then

because I read every single thing that he's ever wrote and after he came off the stage, I was like, "How come I never heard that story?" He goes, "I never told it."

told it." >> That's awesome, man.

>> The whole room was like silent. And it

was like it was like you're he's reading it from a novel cuz he's just like, "Yeah." And then, you know, then it was

"Yeah." And then, you know, then it was up 10 points and next thing you know, I'm up a million and, you know, 20 minutes later I get a order to sell 5,000 lots at a, you know, limit down

and and the I lost it all and the crowd just like >> it's like it like storytelling is like >> but the compounding of lost it all, still have the position, it's offered

limit down, and there's three hours left in the day. Like, you know what I mean?

It's like you're in a choke everybody, you're in a chokeold, and you can't get out. like you're trying to tap out in a

out. like you're trying to tap out in a UFC fight and it's like no, you can't tap out.

>> Yeah, >> you just got to deal.

>> I mean, I think yeah, in light of no more puts like that to your point, you you started off your conference by talking about the importance of of live events now that we're all online and you have this quote about Yamas talking about how the new luxury good premium

good is in-person interaction with people in like-minded circles. And I

think that's so important like that's, you know, at Blockers, we have our digital asset summits that we do and and that's also a key quote that we've been riding on as well. And then you have this going with with your inaugural

conference. And I think it's going to

conference. And I think it's going to become a lot more important to hang out in person with people that you just want to talk shop with.

>> That's where the magic happens, man. You

know what I mean? It's like the difference between whatever watching a concert on TV and being at the concert in the garden, right? Like it's just being around the people and feeling the free energy.

>> They really there was so much energy in the >> or being in a club and listen to some house music.

>> Exactly. Whatever. JB's not so >> the whole thing.

>> Had all of Nashville.

>> We had a little bit of everything, man.

That was a great night. A great day, a great night. Great party. A kid rocks

great night. Great party. A kid rocks after. Holy

after. Holy >> So >> that's what Nashville's for. That's why

we did it.

>> City in the words of Tony Greer.

>> Yeah, >> it is a bull market city. Well, I mean, I've been coming here for like seven, eight years now and like it's exploded right in front of my face. like while

I'm coming back every other, you know, 2 3 months. So, it's just something.

3 months. So, it's just something.

>> Felix was mentioning the airport. You

walk in and it's just all the famous country singers welcome you out on the >> Hey, I'm Luke Holmes, woman of Nashville. I'm like, okay. He's like,

Nashville. I'm like, okay. He's like,

the place is great. The airport like this. You're not hustling and bustling

this. You're not hustling and bustling and you're in the city in 15 minutes and this place is glorious, man. You know,

it feels like New York in the '9s.

>> Yeah, it's awesome.

>> Well, yeah, thanks for inviting us and dude, it was awesome to be here.

>> You guys are the best. We had so much fun hanging out all day and all night.

We got another night left. I mean, we got to throw this down. I'm I'm

literally blown away at how happy people were at the conference, man.

>> A lot of lot of lot of positive energy, man.

>> Disco vibes, good people.

>> Yeah. So, thank you guys for doing coming here and doing this with us. This

is a great partnership that will continue.

>> Yeah. Yeah. We were just saying we're going to try to do these more regularly because it's >> fun just to banter with all of us. Like,

you know, none of us take ourselves too seriously.

That's when be live from JD's next Vegas performance.

>> Yeah, right. That might be happening soon. We'll see.

soon. We'll see.

>> There you go.

>> We'll see. Yeah.

>> Badass, man.

>> All right.

>> Beautiful. Well, we'll be back here for another 10 years in a row. That's Mo hit and I's goal is to do another nine here and uh you know eventually graduate to someplace else.

>> Beautiful.

>> Yeah, man. Thanks for having us. Nice

job. Yeah. Nice job, Felix. Thanks,

guys.

>> Nice job, Sting Burger.

>> Penis, breath.

That's a wrap.