complete f**king crash out

All right, Kevin Hasset on CNBC telling us the labor market is going into nap time.

I haven't watched it yet, but the headline is that it's going into a quiet time.

And I'm like, what is this?

Preschool? We going to nappy doodle time?

Is this is this really what we want?

The director of the NEC saying right before the jobs reports come out.

Is this why we're not going to get the October report?

We know the September report is coming out on Thursday.

We know we got ADP coming out tomorrow morning for the weekly moving average, but where's the announcement about when we're going to get the October report?

I don't know. Oh, and here's Sarah.

Oh, but anyway, we got to watch this video.

Let's see what it is.

>> National Economic Council director uh Kevin Hasset.

Good morning, Kevin.

How are you?

>> You guys had a great uh marriage session there.

Marriage counseling session.

I think there's hope for you two.

>> There there's hope. We got maybe it we cover the cover the >> shill shill shill anything that distract from jobs.

>> Uh maybe the truth is somewhere uh in in the middle.

Uh Kevin and I I have been fairly optimistic when people come on about uh the US economy. I can find a lot of positive things. Um why do you think affordability is such a buzzword uh right now? Now, I mean, we we lived through 9% inflation and I think Biden years they it averaged over 5%.

>> For those four years, >> we're at the highest levels that we've seen in recently at 3%. Why all of a sudden is it uh I don't know, is it Trump's fault?

>> Right. Well, I mean, for sure people still are trying to dig out from the big hole that was dug by uh the previous administration's policies.

So, if you figure the typical mortgage uh payment uh monthly mortgage payment about doubled, uh if you look at a typical bag of groceries, the monthly bag of groceries cost about $400 when President Trump was uh leaving.

>> I I hate this stuff, by the way, because so much of what these politicians talk about just ignores the reality that both Trump and Biden contributed to the original stimulative stimulative COVID inflation.

both of them >> office last time and about $512.

What the Democrats are doing is they're saying that this uh runaway uh spending that we gave you guys uh that created runaway inflation is 100% your fault uh because you haven't fixed blah blah blah blah.

All right, let's let's actually get to some like meat here, which hopefully comes when we get a question asked >> because real average weekly wages fell during during the Biden years because of the inflation.

>> That's right.

>> Right. So, it fell.

However, the president uh is constantly saying prices have come down. Now, inflation is still 3%.

It's still too high.

Now, oil prices, energy prices, there are certain >> He's countering the White House's idea that, oh, prices are coming down.

That's because Donald Trump is looking at, you know, these miscellaneous cherrypicked data points where like, oh, well, egg prices have come down.

Yeah, we had to callull a crapload of chickens, which led to a shortage in eggs.

Guess what happens when there's a shortage?

The price goes up and then it comes down.

And Trump's like, see, I'm responsible for the price coming down.

It's such nonsense. Prices are still going up and that's what's frustrating people.

This, you know, we were in the alpha report this morning.

We're looking at Walmart. My by the way, I almost vomited when I saw what Walmart did in other income to make their EPS come up.

That's the kind of stuff we talk about in the alpha report. Remember, you can join using coupon code NVDA uh before Wednesday.

But what what I saw at Walmart was that above inflation, they're barely growing.

They're growing like 1 and a.5% above inflation.

Now, in fairness, they're able to pass on the inflation to their customers, and they are showing increasing sales, whereas Target is showing decreasing sales.

So, you got to give Walmart credit.

And they also just bought back like $6 billion worth of stock in 6 months.

I mean, they're buying back like a billion dollars of stock per freaking month.

They got so much freaking money.

It's amazing.

Anyway, >> uh things where they have come down, but when you keep saying prices are falling, that's not true. Uh, thank you.

Call him out. Now watch. Kevin Hasset ends up shilling.

Well, you know, the price of eggs has come down. Man, he'll look such a clown.

You can't do that.

Don't do that Hass.

Because inflation is still it's the 3% is on top of all the inflation we had during the Biden years. So, we got all that inflation plus an additional 3%.

And we I think you should admit that >> a more a more precise way to say it though, Joe, is that purchasing power has gone up. So real wages, that's W divided by P for our technical people in the audience.

>> Oh my gosh. Let's just let's just def redefine what's going on. What he's really doing with real wages, by the way, and we could look at this, but if real wages did decline because when inflation was 9%, of course, wages weren't catching up to that, right? So he's comparing to that and saying, okay, yeah, may maybe inflation is still high, but but hey, man, you know, real earnings are going up now.

uh and he's referring to this trend uh that occurred after uh really it started you know we bottomed out here in about the second quarter of 2022 and since then we've had a trend of real wages going up. It's hard for I feel like Trump to take credit for that because this real wage uptrend is really just a reversal of the downtrend following all this insane inflation that we had that really peaked out in 22.

So of course inflation's no longer 9%.

It's like 3% now. So, of course, real wages look like they're going up.

I mean, really, if you want, you could go to this I like this website for this purpose, but you could go ahead and throw in here CPI. So, let's throw in uh inflation, all items, and then let's go ahead add that data series, but we're going to have to do a percent change from a year ago.

And let's just we'll go to like semiannual or whatever. I'd like to normalize these two. this uh uh the top line and let's go to line number one here.

Let's go with percent change from a year ago. So if you look in here postco we zoom in a little bit.

There you go. This is what I wanted to show you.

This is exactly what I was verbally describing.

We just basically built a chart to show you this.

When inflation is high, when the green line is high, of course the blue line's going to go down.

And when the green line starts coming down, of course they start converging.

Duh. That's historically what has always happened.

So Kevin Hasset, this is not happening because of you.

It's happening in spite of you. Gone up by about $1,200 this year.

So, the way to think about it is that we've dug a $3,000 hole because of Biden policies and we've, you know, gained $1,200 on the way out already, which should give you a great deal of hope for the future that the wage increases that we're seeing will continue.

And, uh, even if inflation stays positive, make it so that people feel way better when they go to the grocery store and to buy a car.

You know, we've we've reduced the cost of buying a car with the deductibility of interest.

I mean, there's a million things that we're doing to fix this problem, but it's just kind of astonishing to me that the the cost problem is somehow being uh blamed on us.

Now, think about if you had I mean, part of the cost problem, mind you, or tariffs.

The the short-term impact of tariffs will increase the cost uh of goods and services. This is normal, mostly goods, but it can trickle into services.

This this idea that oh well now we're giving you a tax credit on your interest for a car loan just motivates Americans to get into debt.

This is the opposite of what you should be doing.

In addition to this, you know, wouldn't it be nice if they actually reduced car prices? You know how to actually reduce car prices?

Let the Chinese sell their cars here.

Let the free market win. You want a free and fair market? Open the doors to Chinese cars.

Let our American manufacturers like Ford and GM compete against the Chinese. And guess what's going to happen? Ford and GM are either going to have to dramatically cut their prices and figure out how to get dramatically more efficient in their factories or they're going to go bankrupt because cars are going to get so damn cheap. So how about instead of hey Americans, why don't you finance a $50,000 average price car now and you know you could write off the interest when the interest is, you know, mega high right now. I mean, I there some of the car dealers are doing introductory financing, you know, like 1% or whatever, but I mean, let's be real, you're just paying more for the car when you get that. How about instead of encouraging people to get into debt and then you're not writing off that much interest anyway if the interest rate is 1%, right?

Like the irony. If you take the 0% introductory offer, how much of the tax write off are you going?

If you take market interest rates, you're paying through the nose for debt at the worst time to do it. Worst time to take on debt right now. And you're paying for inflated car values. You want cheaper cars, let the Chinese bring their cars here.

Oh, no, no, no.

We're tariffing the Chinese. Well, exactly.

You are robbing the opportunity of the American consumer to have a cheaper car.

Now, Biden won't do it either. This is not bagging on Republicans.

Democrats don't want Chinese cars either because that's anti-American.

But it's 100% capitalism.

You will have massive deflation in cars if you let the Chinese actually sell their cars here. And it would be a win for every single American.

Every single American would win.

>> Especially with the Obamacare thing.

So Obamacare is 100% Democratic.

>> If somebody here goes, Kevin, what about dumping?

Do you not understand what dumping is?

Listen, this idea of dumping is comes from companies who overmanufacture products because they want a competitive advantage and they're like, "We have all this product.

Let's just sell it.

Sell it. Even if we sell it for a loss, what you do is when you sell a product for a loss, eventually those manufacturers go out of business and eventually you find an equilibrium.

But the idea is that they can manufacture so much cheaper than us.

Who wins when a manufacturer dumps on us? I mean, think about it.

If I was a solar panel company in America, I'd be like, "Please dump all over me.

Dump on me more. Please, please dump on me because it makes it cheaper for me to do things.

" That's capitalism.

Now, if that means that because they're selling at a loss, they go bankrupt.

That's on them. Then another Chinese company will take over and sell panels at a slight margin, but the margins will be tiny.

You can't make money selling solar panels.

You know, you make money selling like batteries and inverters, but there's only a limited amount of time for that.

So, you know, this this idea that as a consumer, you should be disappointed about dumping is insane.

If you are buying stuff, you should be like, "Please dump on me." The only people who are pissed are people who can't compete for the long term.

in manufacturing because if somebody's dumping, they will drive themselves out of business if they're selling at a loss.

And if they're selling for a low margin, let them let them sell for a low margin.

It's great for people buying policy.

It's always been 100% democratic policy.

What they did is they expanded the subsidies during CO and then all those subsidies basically went >> Why would you produce those cars in America?

Fear Furd Furd 10.

horrible tank. I would agree if they produce those cars in America. How the hell are you gonna manufacture cars in America when you have to pay people $30 an hour plus workers comp? So now you got $40 an hour plus payroll taxes plus paid time off plus holiday benefits plus all the that it takes to hire somebody in America.

You know how hard the American government has made it to actually hire American workers?

It's so damn expensive. The only person who says, "Yeah, go manufacture cars with American labor.

" are the people who have never hired an employee in their life.

They have never run a payroll statement.

And they're like, "Holy it's expensive to do stuff in America.

" Bro, you got people in China who are literally walking for $800 a month.

And that's so they can get by.

And you know how you actually help those people get ahead?

By buying their stuff.

As soon as you stop buying their stuff, they make even less.

Welcome to capitalism, dude. But what you want to pay $800, bro? You're paying $800 a day to an American factory worker.

Maybe every two days, you pay $800 a month in China.

And who benefits? Well, I'll tell you who benefits. The consumer in America benefits.

And that worker working for $800 a month benefits because their wages can actually start going up.

Now, who loses is the factory worker making $40 an hour in America, but you could go make that money somewhere else.

There aren't that many factory workers in America.

You're talking about a UAW with 400,000 workers. You know how many households drive cars in America?

It's like 110 million. We've got 110 million households in America who drive cars and benefit from cheaper cars. And if you're shilling for 3 or 400,000 auto workers, what you should be doing is incentivizing them to get jobs in future service industries in America.

AI, robotics, whatever. Train them.

Give them money. Give them stimulus.

Help them. But let 110 million American families have cheaper damn cars.

Take care of the people who get hurt in the transition.

And let capitalism do its job.

Then you'll have cheaper uh cheaper cars.

You'll have better consumerism.

You you'll have you'll have a stronger economy across the board. It's insane.

It's insane. Somebody says, "I'm okay with Sydney Sweeney dumping on me, too.

" Dude, I went to American Eagle to try to take a selfie with a Sydney Sweeney poster.

Not a single one. And I'm like, what the hell is this? What the hell is this?

There's not a single Sweeney poster in American Eagle. I was so disappointed.

So disappointed.

It's just terrible. Dude, you keep skipping the part where they terrify. Bro, shut up.

This is the dumbest argument.

It pisses me off being like, "Oh, but Kevin, they tariff us.

" Dude, trade weighted tariffs against the United States were 1.5%.

The US has trade weighted tariffs on other countries to the tune of 18% before loopholes and 12% after loopholes which means we have literally 8 to 14xed the tariffs that other countries are putting on us. this idea that oh but yeah do it dude you don't actually look at the data if you believe that you've lost your mind if you don't actually look at the data but Kevin Canada has 150% tariffs on our apples and how many of those 150% tariffs do you think are paid zero zero dollars at 150% have ever been paid why it's just an extreme quota and then of course you know Trump likes to cherrypick this extreme quota that never gets paid because it's popular to his base of people who don't actually have any ounce of critical thought.

>> Right into the pockets of insurance companies and uh Obamacare insurance policies have doubled.

>> Somebody's like, "How much did you pocket for this?" I wish the CCP would pay me money. Please sponsor me, CCP.

I'm not sponsored by any country. I I go make I go make a video about Russia and Ukraine and people are like, "How much did Zilinski pay you, Kevin?" I go make a video about Israel and Iran.

How how much did Israel pay you, Kevin?

It's always funny like I super transparent with I make my money. You know where we make lots of money? The Meet Kevin Alpha Report because people love it.

They love the perspective because they absorb the perspective.

They're like, "Kevin, Kevin, dump perspective on me.

Please dump it all on me.

" in price relative to normal policies.

And so the fastest inflation in the economy is these big government subsidies thrown at Obamacare insurance.

Think about it. It's kind of like if you give lots of uh student loans, then the tuition goes up. It's that effect.

And so, >> bro, yes. And you literally just talked about incentivizing people taking car debt and wow.

Yeah. Then tuition goes up.

The same's going to happen with car prices, you You're talking out of both sides of your damn mouth, Kevin Hasset.

You're pissing me off.

You're literally, oh, if you incentivize student loans, student loan, like the cost of how schooling is going to go up.

Well, you're literally just 30 seconds ago talking about how you're incentivizing people taking out car debt.

Are you crazy?

Now they're blaming President Trump for Obamacare as well. They should have fixed Obamacare in the first place.

And President Trump had a plan in the big beautiful bill uh to give people some subsidies, but the Democrats didn't like it because the subsidies weren't going to their campaign contributors, the insurance companies.

Bro, where where was the juice of the article?

Maybe I missed it cuz I was too busy screaming at this AI could be causing quiet time in labor market.

Maybe he slipped it in there.

But what does he say? What does he say here?

firms are finding that AI is making their workers so productive that they don't necessarily have to hire new kids out of college. I don't believe this.

This is not consistent with the data that we are seeing. The data we are seeing suggests I mean McKenzie literally just did a report on this uh and I broke it down too but McKenzie had a whole piece where they're like yeah a lot of firms are working on implementing artificial intelligence and like 80% of workers at a lot of these companies use artificial intelligence for at least one purpose.

uh but they're not finding that it's directly correlated with this sudden or like somehow massive surge of productivity.

They're not seeing that correlation.

We're not actually seeing the outcomes yet. Now, will we hopefully think Kevin Hasset has to say this because it's like what they're really doing is they're rebranding joblessness.

They're really trying to say, "Hey guys, uh yeah, uh the reason you're seeing this pain in jobs is actually because everybody's so efficient and the economy is booming so well. The joblessness, I mean, think about the manipulation here.

They're basically telling you guys, guys, joblessness.

Oh, people are losing jobs.

Oh, that's actually because the economy is doing so well.

Everything's doing so well. That's why people are losing jobs.

What are you smoking, K?

" This is why I call this guy the greatest shill, man.

Full I mean, look, McKenzie, 2025, November 5th. Okay, almost all survey respondents say their organizations are using AI, but most are still in the early stages of scaling and capturing value.

And so if you actually read this report, you're like, "Hey, you know, we're we're using it, but we're not really seeing any impact on EBIT.

" 39% report an EBIT impact.

64% say, "Hey, maybe this is helping us with innovation.

" But this means the vast majority see no impact to EBIT.

And this is also some of this I feel like is branding.

You know, companies want to justify why they're spending so much more money on a software, artificial intelligence software, but if you actually go through the documents and or like the information here, people are like, "Yeah, you know, we're using it.

We're touching on it, but we're we don't really know like how this is actually helping us or transforming the business.

" Read the whole report.

It's uh what is it? Just type in McKenzie, the state of AI 2025. That was my takeaway when I read it. Uh but anyway, AI uh and then of course you're seeing sort of that like slowdown in GPT adoption already, right?

That user growth for GPT slowing down somewhat of a of of an early potential red flag.

But anyway, what do we have here? Uh we have uh artificial intelligence may actually be increasing worker productivity.

This is the the the go-to thesis, but that that could take 10 years, you know, it could take 10 years for you to actually see this productivity show up.

That's probably my biggest fear is that you have layoffs because companies feel like they could do more with AI but their revenues aren't necessarily going up.

So then you get layoffs and then you have this like you know 4 to 10year gap where people are like oh we could actually hire for these AI roles like that that halfpipe so to speak is is very dangerous because that bottom portion will really suck because in that bottom portion the Fed could be printing money and you won't actually end up getting anything out of it. GDP rose at the strongest pace in the second quarter of 2025.

Well in fairness that's also because it tanked in Q1. So you had this sort of like Q2 reversal of Q1's drops dropped because of the tariff insanity.

So to cite Q2 GDP is also I'm sorry, but it's it's just shilling the Trump administration and it it's just wrong.

Uh but okay, because there's so much output growth and income growth.

That's the kind of thing that a free market will work out relatively quickly as you know.

Uh and we find new ways to find to spend money.

Uh-huh. Okay.

Pure pure shilling. Okay. Uh David Saxs the AI in cryptozar said earlier there will be no bailout for AI after uh the CFO asked for bailouts basically you know put the hot air balloon up.

Hasset's comments also came as Trump and allies have tried to refocus their message on affordability.

Uh you've got Hasset saying grocery prices uh have uh not come down during Trump's second term despite the president's claims otherwise.

people are still trying to dig out from the big hole that was dug, right?

Okay. So, I don't know where this quote comes from that they have over here about this quiet time, but uh apparently they have this quote here somewhere.

Now, it it's interesting because if you reconcile it with with this, you know, this is really your big black swan right now that's becoming more and more clear every day.

We hope that this doesn't actually boil over into a real crisis. But there are real risks here that what we're seeing in private credit ends up boiling over.

Uh and so Jeffrey Gunlock, he says load up on cash.

Stay away from private credit.

Assets are overpriced.

Investors are incredibly speculative. This is where we pointed out like you've got this Cyber Mike guy who's saying, "Oh my gosh, the robo taxi math is wild. We could do robo taxis at a dollar a mile at 80% margins.

And I'm like, you know, this is why you can't buy Tesla at a good price because people are shilling these insane numbers.

Even Kathy Woods at like 50 cents a mile or and I I think it's even way less way lower than that how much you're going to actually be able to earn per mile because you you just saturate the market with robo taxes.

It's going to be very difficult to maintain these these high prices. Uh, I mean there's a reason I feel like why Tesla is massively trying to undercut the pricing market right now. That's because they're trying to lost lead to to, you know, drive as much demand as they can, which is fine.

It's a reasonable strategy as you're trying to enter the market.

I mean, there's really no difference between like this whole like dumping idea and Tesla dumping the value of robo taxi ride prices. They're trying to gain market share, right? Who benefits?

The writer, the consumer benefits.

So, you got the same people that are like, "Oh, we should be anti-China dumping cuz you're going to hurt our manufacturing base.

" Those same people are like, "I love that Tesla charges below market rates for Uber rides, you know, robo taxi rides.

" It's like, it's just another form of dumping. Just it doesn't maybe align with exactly what they want for their portfolio. But I think Gonlock's got a point here.

This, you know, overpriced asset concern, uh, nosebleleed valuations, he warns about.

He recommends a 20% cash position to hedge against a market implosion.

Uh probably not bad. I mean like I Buffett famously puts it that cash is like the best call option that you could ever ask for because it's a call option on every asset class with no expiration.

The health of the US equity market is among the least healthy in my career.

The market is incredibly speculative and speculative markets always go to insanely high levels. It happens every time.

which I remember when I read this the first time I'm like that sounds bullish.

We still have another leg boys.

Uh but anyway, he talks about garbage lending references how the same thing happened in the subprime crisis.

I mean it's fair. This is always what happens is you end up getting uh people who package together insane uh products that that are trash products. They slice them up and they slap a AAA rated on it.

Uh here Gunlock even says that Gunlock drew parallels to inflated AAA ratings of subprime mortgages, right? I mean you have to understand if you are a ratings business, right?

If you're in the market of selling ratings, if somebody calls you uh and says, uh, hey, uh, I need a rating for my bundle of trash.

Will you please rate my bundle of trash?

I I I want to sell it.

If you say, "Yeah, we'll rate it, but you know, we're going to we're going to give it a real rating here." Versus some other guy who's like, "Hey, man. Yeah, we we'll get you a good rating. Just sign up with us.

" You know, you're always going to end up getting the rating going to the person who's basically on the phone promising you that they're going to bring you in at a AAA rating.

So, the ratings are always going to be bull crap.

This is why what we saw with Renovo was so shocking where like the loans were worth a hundred cents on the dollar and then all of a sudden they were deemed to be worthless.

That's when Renova went bankrupt, which I want to go through this, but this is, you know, the New York Times basically did a whole piece on how uh, you know, all of these employees, about 1,500 employees abruptly got terminated.

They're not getting their money back for money they spent on gas. They're getting screwed because private equity came in and and destroyed these people's ability to get a check.

Now, you got 1500 unemployed people.

We got people without uh you know with halffinish projects and all these corporations that were sold into a rollup a private equity rollup uh yeah here rolled up to uh uh you know led by BlackRock and they just go bankrupt it because that's always how it works.

It's the Wall Street greed that just ends up bankrupting uh uh you know good business unfortunately because you got to squeeze these crazy uh profits out of uh you know AAA rated bull crap. It's scary.

And so the question I think for Gunlock is just how deep does it go? And I don't think we can listen to Hasset at all because I think he's just frankly the greatest shill of the administration.

He does a great job. you know, he's basically like the Carolyn Levit of economics.

It's insane. Uh it's minister of propaganda, but for the economic side.

Uh so, you know, I I don't trust it as far as I could throw them.

And that's not going to be very far.

>> Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so much.

People love you. People look up to you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin.

Always great to get your