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Did J.P. Morgan Just Reveal The BEST Time to Buy Nvidia Stock? | NVDA

By Investing Tutorial

Summary

Topics Covered

  • Choppier Waters Healthy for AI
  • Nvidia's Forward Metrics Cheap
  • CUDA Locks 90% GPU Dominance
  • Path to $20 Trillion Realistic
  • China H200 Sales Unlock Demand

Full Transcript

Does it matter to you from a market sentiment perspective if there's squabbbling at the top of the US doiciled companies? Is it a worry that

doiciled companies? Is it a worry that we'll see perhaps Nvidia being questioned in terms of its dominance? I

think it's quite healthy. We've seen the AI trade has delivered enormous returns for markets over the last few years and we're I think all kind of experiencing the sigh of relief or this exhale I

guess in a way. Um, we've moved from a rising tide lifting all boats to more choppier waters and investors are being far more scrutinizing when it comes to how much is being spent, the quality of

those investments. We're seeing as this

those investments. We're seeing as this AI trade continues to grow in its enormity, the investment being made and the moes and and >> following a difficult few weeks for the

chip manufacturer, Nvidia shares increased on Monday, rising 1.3% in opening trading as investors consider the competition from Google's tensor processing units. The stock has dropped

processing units. The stock has dropped roughly 6% over the last month. The

recent decline was viewed by JP Morgan analysts as a possible buying opportunity, which is the primary reason the stock rose. Citing a robust order pipeline, they continue to retain an

overweight rating on Nvidia stock with a $250 price objective. JP Morgan analyst Bram Kaplan advises selling Nvidia put options with a strike price of $160 that

expire in March 2026.

These options have a premium of $8.50 50 salons per share. According to Kaplan, investors could still purchase shares at a net price of $151.50 sounds or about

65% over the company's target, even if the stock drops below $160.

Modest improvements were also seen by other chip manufacturers such as Advanced Micro Devices, which increased 0.8% and Broadcom, which increased 0.9% after

falling 11% on Friday due to underwhelming earnings. In summary, the

underwhelming earnings. In summary, the spike is a result of a number of factors, including perceived overreaction to short-term competition, investor confidence in Nvidia's growth

prospects, and profit generating options-based trading tactics. Nvidia is

the biggest firm in the world with a market valuation of over $4.5 trillion.

It may however also be the most cheap AI stock available at the moment. However,

many commentators claim that Nvidia is overpriced. That is accurate. However,

overpriced. That is accurate. However,

the majority of arguments that Nvidia is overpriced are based on the company's trailing price to earnings PE ratio of about 45.5 times, which appears to be

high. However, according to expert

high. However, according to expert predictions for 2026, its price/earnings to growth PEG ratio is below 0.7 times with less than one times seen as

inexpensive and its forward PE is below 25 times. That's not all though.

25 times. That's not all though.

Additionally, the company's financial sheet shows about $52 billion in net cash and securities, and it is expected to produce about $85 billion in free cash flow this year. Those valuation

measures are inexpensive for a business expanding as rapidly as Nvidia. The

reason Nvidia is arguably the most affordable AI stock on the market is also closely related to its expansion.

The business has experienced rapid expansion. Its sales increased by 62%

expansion. Its sales increased by 62% year-over-year last quarter and it was almost 10 times higher than it was just 2 years prior. In contrast, its adjusted

earnings per share increased by 60% annually. Additionally, Nvidia does not

annually. Additionally, Nvidia does not see a slowdown in growth very soon. It

predicted that its revenue for fiscal Q4 will reach 65 billion, a 65% yearly increase. The three main cloud computing

increase. The three main cloud computing businesses have all stated that they will make significant investments in data infrastructure in 2026, as have other startups like Meta Platforms and

OpenAI. This bodess well for the

OpenAI. This bodess well for the industry's future. In the meantime,

industry's future. In the meantime, Nvidia may experience an increase in sales in 2026 following the United States decision to permit the company to

sell its H200 processors to authorized commercial clients in China. The Trump

administration has reversed its prior restriction on the shipment of Nvidia's H20 chips to China by permitting the sale of the even more potent H200 chips in return for a 25% cut to the US

government. Data center capital

government. Data center capital expenditure Cape might reach $4 trillion by the end of the decade, according to Nvidia's medium-term projections. Since

a significant portion of this expenditure will go into processors and networking components, it is well positioned to receive more than its fair share as the primary supplier of the

chips that run AI workloads. The

ecosystem that Nvidia has created around its graphics processing units, GPUs, is what gives it an advantage. The chip was originally designed to speed up the

rendering of visuals in video games, hence the name. However, Nvidia created the CUDA software platform to enable developers to simply program its chips

for additional activities. Hence,

expanding the use cases for its CPUs, giving it away for free and distributing it to prestigious colleges and research labs that were conducting very early AI work was an even more astute move than

this one. Because of this, almost all

this one. Because of this, almost all fundamental AI code is written in CUDA and optimized for its GPUs. The business

didn't stop there. It entered the networking space and developed the exclusive NVL link interconnect technology which allowed its chips to swiftly exchange memory and data thereby

enabling them to function as a single large unit. Because of this, Nvidia

large unit. Because of this, Nvidia currently commands a market share of more than 90% in the data center GPU industry, one of the biggest and fastest growing in history. Even though there is

more competition now, its size, ecosystem, and chip flexibility remain unrivaled, setting it up to continue leading the industry in the upcoming 10 years. If sales growth just keeps

years. If sales growth just keeps slowing down, I could see Nvidia making about $20 per share by the end of January 2023 in fiscal 2030. If that's

the case, it's among the least expensive AI brands available and has a lot of potential, including in 2026.

It's a good investment to own as long as the AI infrastructure boom lasts. Even

if the use of artificial intelligence AI has helped the stock market rise recently, investor trust seems to be eroding. AI equities have been impacted

eroding. AI equities have been impacted by worries about a bubble and the possibility that development may decrease despite evidence to the contrary. One example is Nvidia, a

contrary. One example is Nvidia, a manufacturer of AI chips. The business

swiftly became the industry leader by repurposing its graphics processing units, GPUs, to speed up AI training and inference in data centers. Absolute

demand is still impressive, even though the company's relative growth pace has slowed. One Wall Street analyst

slowed. One Wall Street analyst quadrupled their forecasts for Nvidia stock just last month, estimating that the business will reach $20 trillion by 2030. Let's examine Nvidia's most recent

2030. Let's examine Nvidia's most recent performance. the reasons the analyst is

performance. the reasons the analyst is one of the company's greatest supporters and the route to reaching that ambitious goal. Regardless of your point of view,

goal. Regardless of your point of view, Nvidia has produced amazing outcomes over the last 10 years. As of this video, the stock price has increased by 21,640%

due to increases in revenue and net income of 3,70% and 15,320% respectively. According to the company's

respectively. According to the company's recent statistics, the unprecedented deployment of AI has driven striking demand over the last 3 years. Nvidia's

results once again accelerated in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, which concluded on October 26th. Earnings per

share EPS of $130C's increased 67% while record revenue of 57 billion increased 62% year-over-year and 22% sequentially

with sales of $51.2 billion that increased by 66%. The data center segment which includes the GPUs used for data centers and cloud computing remains

the main driver indicating the ongoing desire for AI. According to Nvidia's estimate, the company will continue to grow. At the midpoint of its estimate,

grow. At the midpoint of its estimate, management's fourth quarter outlook predicts revenue of $65 billion, or 66% year-over-year growth. Nvidia's

year-over-year growth. Nvidia's optimistic outlook appears to be reinforced by the large tech corporation's constant higher adjustments of capital expenditures,

capex. The amount spent on AI in 2025 is

capex. The amount spent on AI in 2025 is already $4.5 billion and it may rise from the $250 billion initial prediction. Spending is expected to

prediction. Spending is expected to increase much more in 2026.

According to IoT Analytics, Nvidia holds an estimated 92% of the market for data center GPUs. Being the industry leader

center GPUs. Being the industry leader in AI focused GPUs, the business is well positioned to benefit from rising AI capital expenditures. the path to 20

capital expenditures. the path to 20 trillion.

As of this writing, Nvidia's market capitalization is over $4.3 trillion.

To increase its value to 20 trillion, the company's stock price must rise by 369%.

Wall Street estimates that Nvidia will make $213 billion in revenue in its fiscal 2026, which ends in January, which would give it a forward price to

sales PS ratio of 20. To support a 20 trillion market cap, Nvidia would need to increase its revenue to almost $1 trillion yearly, assuming its PS stays

the same. Over the next 5 years, Wall

the same. Over the next 5 years, Wall Street predicts that Nvidia's sales will increase by 31% annually. My

calculations show that it is already in the ballpark of reaching $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, which would require an annual revenue growth of 34%.

I'm betting on Nvidia because Wall Street has a track record of underestimating the chipmaker. I'm not

alone in thinking that. The CEO and top tech analyst for the IO fund, Beth Kindig, raised her 2030 market cap projections for Nvidia to $20 trillion

just last month. Her calculations are convincing. Kindig stated that in order

convincing. Kindig stated that in order to meet that standard, Nvidia will increase its data center revenue by 36% per year over the following five years.

Nvidia's aggressive one-year product plan, its development into a full stack AI system supplier, and its unbreakable software ecosystem via CUDA compute

unified device architecture all support this. The path to 20 trillion becomes

this. The path to 20 trillion becomes less dramatic and more reflective of compounding fundamentals when these factors are taken into account. coupled

with the sharp rise in global AI infrastructure capital expenditures.

Disregard Kindig at your own risk. Her

history is unmistakable. The expert

anticipated that Nvidia will surpass Apple as the most valuable business in the world in 2019 when its market capitalization was only $550 billion. I

think Kindig's opinion is very important because her prediction came true in 2024.

Nvidia stock is not for the timid because of its lengthy history of volatility which is probably going to continue. Some shareholders have been

continue. Some shareholders have been shaken by concerns about the slowing adoption of AI and speculation of a bubble which has allowed seasoned investors to purchase the company at a

relative discount. Even though Nvidia is

relative discount. Even though Nvidia is predicted to boost its income by 48% to $316 billion, its present sales are only 23 times more than those of the previous

year. The evidence indicates that

year. The evidence indicates that Nvidia's stock will probably be far higher than it is now, even if the company doesn't achieve a $20 trillion market cap by 2030. In an effort to ward

off growing competition, Nvidia announced on Monday that it had bought the AI software company SCEM MD. The

chip designer is stepping up its investments in the AI ecosystem and doubling down on open-source technology.

The chip manufacturer gained notoriety for creating fast processors, but it also provides a variety of its own AI models as open-source software that can be used by businesses and researchers,

ranging from physics simulations to self-driving cars. One of the main

self-driving cars. One of the main selling points for its chips is its proprietary CUDA software, which is a standard among most developers. Software

is therefore essential to preserving its leadership in the AI sector. Large

computing jobs that can take up a significant portion of a data center's server capacity can be scheduled with the use of SCEMD software. The company

sells engineering and maintenance support, but its technology SLURM is open source, so developers and businesses may use it for free. The

deal's financial terms were not made public. NVIDIA announced that it will

public. NVIDIA announced that it will keep distributing SCEDMD's software in an open-source manner. According to a statement from NVIDIA, Foundation model developers and AI builders use SLURM,

which is supported on the latest NVIDIA hardware as part of the critical infrastructure needed for generative AI to manage model training and inference needs. In response to an increasing

needs. In response to an increasing number of competitor open-source models from Chinese AI laboratories, NVIDIA earlier on Monday introduced a new family of open-source AI models that it

claims would be quicker, less expensive, and more intelligent than its earlier offerings. According to its website,

offerings. According to its website, Sced MD, which was established in 2010 in Liverour, California by slurm software engineers Morris Mo Jedi and

Danny Aubel, currently has 40 employees.

Among its clients are the Barcelona supercomputing center and cloud infrastructure company Coreweee. As

Chinese companies hurry to place orders, Nvidia is considering increasing manufacturing of its H200 chips after successfully pressing the Trump administration to permit sales to China.

According to Reuters, which cited unidentified sources, the H200 chips, the most potent of Nvidia's earlier hopper generation graphics processing

units, GPUs, designed for training massive language models, were previously prohibited from being sold in China due of regulations put forth by the former Biden administration that restricted the

sale of cuttingedge AI processors in that nation. However, last week, Nvidia

that nation. However, last week, Nvidia received approval from the Department of Commerce to sell H200 GPUs in China in return for a 25% share of the chip's

sales. According to Reuters, Nvidia is

sales. According to Reuters, Nvidia is currently exploring expanding its capacity because to the high demand it is receiving from Chinese businesses.

Chinese authorities are currently debating whether to permit the import of the H200 chips, which are reportedly far more potent than the H20 GPUs that Nvidia had modified for Chinese markets.

The chipmaker would be able to capitalize on latent demand in a nation that is vying to produce its own AI chips by increasing manufacturing of the H200 GPUs. The availability of the

H200 GPUs. The availability of the newest and most potent hardware for training AI models in China has been hindered by competition and national security concerns in the West, forcing

businesses there to prioritize efficiency over scalability. The source

also stated that Nvidia has already been contacted by Chinese businesses such as Alibaba and Bite Dance, which are creating their own AI models to arrange huge purchases for the H200 chips, which

are being manufactured in small quantities. An NVIDIA representative

quantities. An NVIDIA representative stated via email, "We are managing our supply chain to ensure that licensed sales of the H200 to authorized customers in China will not have an

impact on our ability to supply customers in the United States. Don't

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