Does China have the upper hand over Trump? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the global news podcast from the BBC. I am Anra Desai and alongside

the BBC. I am Anra Desai and alongside me on this episode, I am so pleased to say that I have my colleague and longtime China analyst Celia Hatton with me. Celia, what are we going to talk

me. Celia, what are we going to talk about? We're going to talk about, of

about? We're going to talk about, of course, Donald Trump's visit to China.

So, what's the tone been like um so far?

It's really interesting to contrast, you know, these are two men with very different personalities, very two different two very different speaking styles. You know, throughout the course

styles. You know, throughout the course of this day, uh, we've seen Donald Trump speak a couple of times and address Cinping, address, uh, his delegation and

the Chinese delegation, and he has been full of positive words, talking about his great relationship with Cigin Ping, what a great leader he is, you know, really speaking off the cuff about what

positive talks that they've had. uh and

then even going on to say that he was looking forward to the state banquet because it was another cherished opportunity to for the two sides to speak. So contrast that with Siginping

speak. So contrast that with Siginping where every time he spoke he you know clearly was speaking in a pre-planned way very rehearsed

very rehearsed very carefully chosen words and his words were kind of positive if you look on the on the on the front of it but I really think he was trying to achieve two two different

things every single time he spoke he really wanted to make sure that the US and China were put on par. He emphasized

over and over again that these are two equals. They are two superpowers. It's

equals. They are two superpowers. It's

not that China is kind of the little brother to the United States. And he

took pains to talk about, for example, how achieving the Chinese dream, so the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, which is Cinping's kind of grand

vision for China, well that was equal to the make America great again uh idea.

And so, you know, saying that we can achieve these together. But there was another kind of darker undertone to what he was saying. He said several times that these two countries could achieve

great things together, but they were also, you know, capable of conflict. And

he really wanted to bring that in almost a bit of a warning at the end of many of his comments to say what could be at stake if they didn't get this relationship right. And that's just not

relationship right. And that's just not something that we really heard from Donald Trump today. So is that done deliberately to try and achieve some sort of an upper hand in this dynamic so to speak?

I think so. I mean he first he knows that you know is one audience is that the the Chinese people are watching this. This is being broadcast to

this. This is being broadcast to everyone in China on Chinese state media. Uh and so I think he wanted to

media. Uh and so I think he wanted to make that very clear that these two men are equals. I think that would probably

are equals. I think that would probably was very well planned that at first it would be Donald Trump going to China instead of Cinping going to the United States and I think also he wants to make

sure to the wider world that China really is seen as a superpower on par with the United States. if anybody had any doubts uh he wants to really

underline that and China really has spent a lot of time also kind of portraying itself as a country that speaks on behalf of poorer countries that it's kind of a it even describes

itself still even though it has the world's second biggest economy it still describes itself as a developing country and so it it likes to portray itself in that way but still a country that is an

equal to the United States what can we say that Donald Trump is trying to achieve then with all this positive rhetoric and and being so gracious as well. What sort of a tactic

is that that he's using in this?

I think you could probably argue that Donald Trump's handling of China hasn't quite gone as he intended for it to go.

You know, when we first saw the start of the of the second Trump administration, Donald Trump invited Cinping to come to his inauguration. he really kind of

his inauguration. he really kind of extended a hand to Cinping. Cin Ping

turned down that invitation, I will say, and and and sent uh uh someone more junior to him. Uh but I think that Donald Trump kind of went into this thinking that he could kind of manage

China a little bit. Then he kicked off the tariff war and that did not go the way that he was thinking it might. I

think by all accounts uh anybody who's watched that you know China really managed that uh that uh war they didn't immediately dispatch a delegation to try

to convince Trump you didn't really hear for quite some time whether Cinping and Donald Trump were going to have a phone call even after Donald Trump had announced massive tariffs on China

instead a few months later that's when trade talks between the two sides began uh and and they n they negotiated a truce. This was after China started

truce. This was after China started matching Donald Trump's tariffs. So they

took a different tack and I think a lot of people would argue that China actually managed the situation a lot better than some other countries who really tried to cowtow to the United

States a and decided to sign trade deals that now are are being called into question. If China wants to declare

question. If China wants to declare itself as such a strong power globally, well, what can we say about their diplomatic power as well as their influence as well, especially not just

in the region, but beyond?

I think China's really tried to manage its relationships with other countries that Donald Trump either needs to deal with or Donald Trump wants to deal with.

It was really interesting while we were seeing uh Cinping and Donald Trump today standing up in a state banquet and right in the center of Beijing in the great hall of the people. I was in a news

studio at the time and I saw on my screen an announcement from the Kremlin uh from Moscow flashed to say that President Putin had announced that he

was set to visit Beijing next. he was

going to meet with Cigin Ping underlining the fact that President Putin and Cigin Ping are very very close. You know, they have really long

close. You know, they have really long publicly declared that they have a very close relationship. So, first we have

close relationship. So, first we have China's relationship with Russia. That's

something that that sometimes Donald Trump uh needs help with and and and and consults Cinping on. Also, China has a very close relationship with Iran. It is

a major buyer of uh Iranian oil. Donald

Trump himself has publicly wavered on whether he needs China's help. But even

he has admitted at times that he would want to consult Cigin Ping about Iran.

And we've heard that that's happened today in their meeting that the two men had today. Iran was one of the topics.

had today. Iran was one of the topics.

And uh the US delegation was quite pleased to say that Beijing agreed to help get the Iranians to lift the blockade on the straight of Hormuz and get involved with tan. And so I think

the United States really does lean on China for its diplomatic contacts at times.

And I guess China has been watching this war in Iran um from an exercise of learning as well in terms of how to I guess be quite smart diplomatically in

terms of how to how to play this position of power.

Yeah. I mean smart diplomatically but also smart militarily. They've been able to see how the US military operates, where its weaknesses are. It's quite

valuable for China to be able to see that without having to get involved. You

know, we've also seen many people have wondered how much China has benefited by the fact that United States has had to take some of its military assets out of the Asia-Pacific region and move them

towards the Middle East. They've also,

you know, the United States has drained a lot of its military resources by getting involved in the USIsrael war with Iran. So I think you know there are

with Iran. So I think you know there are many people in Beijing who even though they're not applauding the fact that this war began, they've obviously suffered economically because of it. I

think that they have benefited in many ways militarily uh by uh watching how this war has unfolded and you mentioned as well economics

there. How has China been impacted

there. How has China been impacted through this war? And they haven't been immune to it of course and that's why they do have a a firm interest in what happens in that region.

Yeah. Economically, it has suffered because of the war. It hasn't done so bad actually economically so far this year. And I think that's because China's

year. And I think that's because China's long-term strategic planning has allowed it to build up stockpiles of oil, stockpiles of of of weapons and and and

different um supplies that it needs.

It's it's quite good at that kind of long-term planning. However, it's still

long-term planning. However, it's still an export-driven economy. It's still

dependent on global consumption. it it

needs basically people around the world to keep going into shops and buying goods that are made in China. If that

stops for whatever reason, China is going to suffer. So, China really does have uh a firm interest in seeing the conflict come to an end, seeing the

blockade on the street of hermuse hormuse to be lifted, not just so it can get more oil from Iran, but also so that the global economy bounces back and people start feeling confident and start

buying again. So city with China's

buying again. So city with China's economic position overall, how healthy is it or unhealthy?

So I mentioned that it's it has been suffering because of of the war in Iran.

It's also been suffering kind of these long-term economic challenges that it just can't seem to address. And so

behind the curtain, China really is struggling in many ways. First, it's got an aging population. You know, at the moment around a quarter of China's population is over the age of 60, which

might not sound like that much, but actually that is going to grow exponentially. And China isn't a wealthy

exponentially. And China isn't a wealthy country per capita. Not everybody has a lot of money in their in their pocket.

And so over the next few decades, we're really going to see China begin to suffer because they just don't have enough people paying taxes and being able to support the the workforce. So

that's a massive issue that they can't really address. They also just don't

really address. They also just don't have enough people spending money within the country. Chinese people, I just

the country. Chinese people, I just mentioned, they don't have a lot of money in their pockets, but they are known to be really eager savers. And

that's because they feel like they have to care about education and health care and real estate and all the things that don't allow them to go out and just spend, spend, spend. So they have

domestic economic problems that they can't kick. So, you know, they need

can't kick. So, you know, they need business deals as well with the United States. You know, it's not just the US

States. You know, it's not just the US coming and asking China to do business with the US. It's also that China needs that business to keep going as well.

So then if we look ahead, what does China need to do in terms of its approach with Donald Trump and and in order to achieve its objectives going forward?

China has this way of operating that lets it look far into the future.

They're very good at strategic long-term planning. You know, the Communist Party

planning. You know, the Communist Party operates with a five-year plan. You

know, they they set out their plan and they enact that plan and they're very clear about what they're going to do.

Um, so I think that that in a Trump era, that's actually really worked to their benefit because they haven't reacted very very quickly every time Donald Trump says something. Instead, they've

stuck with their plan. So, even though they have big problems, as I've just said, I think that they also have sort of this nice long-term thinking that's let them do things like, you know, shore

up stocks of critical minerals that the United States needs, for example. So,

they've got lots of lots of cards in their back pocket. I think the next thing we're really looking towards is 2027, next year. You know, Cinping

doesn't have to contend with elections, but he does have to think about his own terms. Now he was supposed to under normal circumstances a normal Chinese leader would serve two terms. Cigin Ping

is now uh actually changed the entire rule book in China and allowed himself to serve a third term next year. He

could be entering into a fourth term possibly. We haven't actually heard from

possibly. We haven't actually heard from him what he's going to do. But it's also possible that he'll start to kind of nominate some people the next generation. We haven't seen him do that

generation. We haven't seen him do that yet. And so I think that's going to be

yet. And so I think that's going to be the next thing that we're going to be watching out for. Is he going to feel strong enough as a leader to feel that he can nominate the next the next round

of people or are we going to interpret some weakness from him? Some questions

over how long he can remain in his position and keep addressing China's problems or also just also managing his relationship with the United States.

Celia, as always, thank you for your time. Celia Hatton there uh Asia analyst

time. Celia Hatton there uh Asia analyst and of course our colleague here on the Global News podcast. Uh do subscribe and click on the link below uh for more global news podcast content and we'll

see you again on the next