Elon Says $100T Is LOW: How SPCX Compute Could Break Every Model 🚀

Hello. Little different today. We're not

going to do Bitcoin micro strategy because nothing basically has happened.

It's like every week is the same. So,

but we will talk about Bitcoin at the end of this video. And we have a live poll going. And I want to thank

poll going. And I want to thank everybody for coming. I really do appreciate you all coming up here every day. And uh thank you for taking the

day. And uh thank you for taking the time. This one I think about this one a

time. This one I think about this one a lot. Space SpaceX compute

lot. Space SpaceX compute moes and I have been burning my brains on this one now for

well since even before the IPO and I'm just going to look at the business the rumors the mergers the odds the

valuations and yet another price prediction model. So, we're up to like

prediction model. So, we're up to like 12 or 13 now. And just on compute alone, that's the very interesting thing. Big

thank you to Cyber Sniper, Sean D, TND, KA for being here. And of course, Buckhorn, GQ Trader, and Bman. Love you

guys. Let's get into it. And this sounds like crazy bullishness, etc. But I've done the numbers and I've also analyzed

the competition and I tell you, the results are insane. Anyway, hope my mic is working. I think it is.

Let's go. Not financial advice, just a guy on the internet. Shout out to Donna Felix. I love the information you share

Felix. I love the information you share with us and I enjoy being part of your Patreon family. Thank you, Donna. We

Patreon family. Thank you, Donna. We

love to have women in the community. We

are still dominated by men. Probably 92

93%.

But one day hopefully we'll get to 10% female. Anyway,

female. Anyway, let's move on. First of all, the big story is just how much Elon has been

tweeting and how extremely bullish he is. It is almost bonkers. He's almost

is. It is almost bonkers. He's almost

like he's hallucinating or something.

But when you look at all the numbers and back them all down, it maybe he's on to something. But

basically, he has never ever in the history sounded this bullish on SpaceX.

Okay. Uh, you know, he now is talking about SpaceX being worth over a hundred trillion dollars in 10 years. Okay.

That's a 50x from here from where we are. And he backed it up with post after

are. And he backed it up with post after post after post. So, the reason I'm making this video is should you own some SpaceX and how bullish should you be?

And I'm going to share all the receipts in detail. And this video today is

in detail. And this video today is backed up by many real live tweets as well, so you can go dig them up yourself. And sometimes the best value

yourself. And sometimes the best value of a tweet is looking at the comments below it too. Little tip there. But

here, this is the SpaceX compute road map Q4 2026.

And I want to take a second on this. Not

only is this compute road map insane, but they're ramping way faster than anybody else. They're the only people

anybody else. They're the only people that can build coherent compute.

They're the only people that can build the energy, the cooling. They can build a facility in 20 weeks. They can set up a 100,000 GPUs in like 90 days which or

is it whatever whatever days it was that Jensen said it was hub superhuman. Most

other competitors takes 2 to four years to do this. This is the big problem. Now

I'm not talking bottlenecks. I'm talking

scarcity. We're moving into a world where the I can prove a thousand ways to Sunday that the demand for compute is going completely parabolic.

But what's not going parabolic is the ability to scale to deliver that compute. That's where this story gets

compute. That's where this story gets very interesting. There's one player on

very interesting. There's one player on the planet that can do it fast and efficiently and in a coherent manner that nobody else has been able to string

more than 30,000 GPUs together. Elon

does 220,000 GPUs again and again and again and again. That's the point of this slide. So before we do anything

this slide. So before we do anything else, I just want to lay the groundwork with this. not hopeium but real facts.

with this. not hopeium but real facts.

Okay. And we have the earnings call as well tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. And

then Tesla on Wednesday. It's going to be a big week, exciting week. But

Colossus 150,000 H100s, 50K H200s, 30K GB200s. Colossus 2 110,000 GB200s,

GB200s. Colossus 2 110,000 GB200s, 440,000 GB300s.

That's monstrous. And then he's building another 220k GB300s which will be fully operational next week. That was October 1st. That's up and running. Another 220k

1st. That's up and running. Another 220k

in November. We're heading into November in what, 2 weeks? And if we get lucky, another 220k uh it must be that sweet sweet spot where he can ramp these very fast by

late December. Putting this all together

late December. Putting this all together is a monstrous amount of compute. And as

I say, he or she who has the most compute wins. And that's the simple

compute wins. And that's the simple story.

But there's more. Now, this is a place called Brownsville, Texas. It's near

Starbase, and they are building there and moving fast. And I think this is where they're going to house not one of those little microarters, these smaller buildings that have the same amount of

compute, but a bunch of them at the same time. And according to CERN Basher,

time. And according to CERN Basher, friend of the channel, shout out to CERN. Um, he looked into this and

CERN. Um, he looked into this and there's some other data available, but they have 444.45 four or five acres.

They have water. They have the land.

They've got the buildings. They've got

the 400 megawatt megawws of wind turbines on site for one mini heart. And

they'll do more. Okay. And they can make at least 22 billion a year on the 220,000 mini hearts GB300s and 30 billion on 220,000

Vera Rubins. When are they getting the

Vera Rubins. When are they getting the Vera Rubins? Very soon. And I we'll get

Vera Rubins? Very soon. And I we'll get to some rumors later that I heard from very good sources that we may be able to take to the bank and they can spin all

these up in 20 weeks. Okay, six

buildings could be 132 to $180 billion in revenue per year. That's monstrous.

$180 billion is basically twice the revenue that Tesla makes after being in operation for nearly two decades. Again,

they've they've found a way of pivoting rocket scientists into building data centers better, quicker, faster than anybody else. That's the big story. Then

anybody else. That's the big story. Then

Ron Baron came out and he sees SpaceX being worth $50 trillion in 10 years.

That's a 25x from here. Yes, 10 years is a long time. I know. I know. Stay

healthy, my friends. That's when I say Hela. Thank you for coming. But Ron

Hela. Thank you for coming. But Ron

Baron knows that he has a huge bags in both SpaceX and Tesla. He's a big believer in Elon Musk and has been for a long time. And again, this is a

long time. And again, this is a combination of things like Starlink alone would be worth 14 to 15 trillion.

Of that 50 trillion, so consider 1/3 Starlink, but I think there's more value in a whole bunch of other things too. Anyway, this is 25x.

But that's not the important tweet. 50

trillion 25x. It's what Elon said. He

said, "Unless there's a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to more than hundred trillion in less than 10 years.

More than 100 trillion, less than 10 years." This is my favorite Dr. Evil.

years." This is my favorite Dr. Evil.

$100 trillion. It's bonkers numbers.

We'll get to the valuation model and the price predictions in a minute. And we'll

get to why I've said for a long time how many SpaceX shares you need to have a different future. But this is crazy.

different future. But this is crazy.

crazy. And you know, he knows that twe tweets don't go anywhere. There's people

that have bookmarked this a thousand times, maybe 10,000 times, maybe a million times. Again, greater than

million times. Again, greater than hundred trillion in valuation in less than a decade. Insane. Now, the other thing that's completely insane, too, is

the SpaceX total addressable market.

They had it in the S1. I read the S1 twice. $28.5 trillion. And James cat

twice. $28.5 trillion. And James cat said SpaceX claims it TAM is 28.5 trillion. No offense Elon, but I will

trillion. No offense Elon, but I will need to verify that independently from the comfort of my own bedroom.

Elon Musk said, "We are wrong. It's

vastly higher than that." So the TAM of 28.5 trillion, which blew people's socks off, they said it's wrong. Now the key thing is I build a lot of my price

prediction models off of total addressable markets. Then I calculate

addressable markets. Then I calculate market share. Then I calculate revenue

market share. Then I calculate revenue and profitability and all that type of stuff. If the TAM is wrong, that means

stuff. If the TAM is wrong, that means every model I have built so far is wrong. It means it's completely

wrong. It means it's completely understated.

Very important to understand how I model things out. Insane. Hey Mike, good to

things out. Insane. Hey Mike, good to see you. And Morgan Stanley

see you. And Morgan Stanley says, "Everybody has ignored the real engine." Think about inference from

engine." Think about inference from space, data centers in space, but also terrestrial data centers are going to be huge because of the point I mentioned at the very beginning.

Nobody has enough and demand is off the hook and you can't build these things.

You can't hook up the power. You can't

get the professional trades in. Nothing.

And Morgan Stanley was in a room full of people and he asked, "Does anybody own SpaceX?"

SpaceX?" Not one hand went up. Not one.

Now he also said it is the whole SpaceX inference data centers in space orbit etc is completely ignored and he said it's very close to breaking out

gradually then suddenly from Sawyer 2 and Musk responded to this too and said this is a very big deal. So Musk is basically I shouldn't say pumping his

SpaceX but he's literally pumping his SpaceX pretty hard. And then we have Terrafab, which nobody believes they'll ever be able to pull off. But last week we just heard that TSMC is in working

with them. Nvidia is in working with

with them. Nvidia is in working with them. Intel is in working with them.

them. Intel is in working with them.

Everybody wants to go to this party because it's going to be huge. And what

they're going to do again of course chips will be a bottleneck, power will be a bottleneck, etc. But the value of the output of this factory will be in

the top 20 of country GB GDPs in the world. I think it's 180 countries in the

world. I think it's 180 countries in the world. Think of the top 20. You got

world. Think of the top 20. You got

Italy Germany France US Canada etc. China Japan.

And that is his vision. Huge vision.

Monstrous. And then they've already talked about how much they're going to invest in the first phase. Be $17

billion, create 3,000 jobs, and it'll be completely vertically integrated. and

they're going to unthink how chips have been made in the past and they're going to do their own memory and everything else, but they've got help from some very powerful friends which will help them pull it off. Then I'm going to turn

off move my camera to the bottom right for this. Boo. Okay, Starlink global

for this. Boo. Okay, Starlink global comms direct to cell all that stuff as well. There's a guy called John Erish

well. There's a guy called John Erish man who's very good at predicting things like profit growth, revenue growths. Uh

follow him on Twitter. He said Starlink revenue could grow 925% in 5 years.

Okay, that's a 10x in 5 years my friends. Revenue Starlink global coms of

friends. Revenue Starlink global coms of course Elon comes and gets on the bottom of this said of course easy peasy no problem. Okay so Starlink etc bron bar

problem. Okay so Starlink etc bron bar in the beginning said it's worth 15 trillion and the growth rate is through the roof global coms so nobody would be able to touch them. Yes, you have

countries like Europe and China and Russia who all want to build their own satellite networks. They don't have a

satellite networks. They don't have a chance now that Starship is running and moving huge payloads of 100 to 150 tons up in space with massive, you know,

satellites like they could put, I think, 60 of them in one of these starships and when they open up they're wider than a

787 or 74, whatever big plane it is.

It's the the world is so far behind it's it's actually unfair. Very unfair.

Anyhow, that's Starling 2 and Starship.

Speaking of Starship, as well, the FAA is reviewing a Starbase expansion and approving up to 456 launches per year.

And get that, 912 landings per year, which means the Starship goes up with the booster and then the spaceship on top, then they both come down separately. So that's why there's 2:1

separately. So that's why there's 2:1 ratio between landings and launches. And

I'm sure for the kids at home, if you multiply by 456 by two, what do you get?

Hopefully successful landings. We'll

see. Anyway, that is more than one a day, my friends. And there may be restrictions on weekends and evenings. I

don't know, weather, but either way, it's nutty. And that is in for approval.

it's nutty. And that is in for approval.

Not approved yet. And last week as well, we had the big dip. got time to buy some things because markets get rattled very easily. We had what I call the core

easily. We had what I call the core weave kurfuffle. I hope I spelled that

weave kurfuffle. I hope I spelled that right. Um the you know their yield

right. Um the you know their yield spiked etc. But the point of this was yet again Elon responded to zero hedge that talked

about all the the danger for core and maybe bankruptcy risk probable in one or two years all that stuff. But the thing that Elon tried to point out here for

everybody to make it abundantly clear what's going on is coreweave kind of sells stuff and then it gets in money and then it buys stuff and then it has

to build the data centers and procure the GPUs etc. It takes 2 and 1/2 years, 3 years in some cases to do it and it's getting harder and harder and harder to

build these AI data centers. That's the

point. Elon's point is getting the money in to build is the easy part. What is

incredibly difficult is to build the complex hardware. And I know some people

complex hardware. And I know some people in the audience here work with data centers. So I see you and you know

centers. So I see you and you know exactly how hard it is. Uh but getting the money in to build them, the massive power, the cooling, the racks, the

wiring, the connectivity, etc. is extremely difficult. And Elon Musk has a

extremely difficult. And Elon Musk has a crack team of SpaceX rocket scientists who are building the data centers. And

he said as well, we even find it extremely difficult to do, but nobody does it faster. And if you buy these chips, the GPUs that cost billions of dollars, you want to be able to turn them on and monetize them as quickly as

possible so you can get the money in the door. And Elon Musk's CFO for SpaceX

door. And Elon Musk's CFO for SpaceX said that they can get full return on investment on a data center in 9 to 12 months, which is absolutely unheard of.

Most people, it takes them that long, two and a half times that long to even get it stood up, never mind turning on the revenue. So again, just like

the revenue. So again, just like Starship and everything else, they have a bonkers advantage. Now

the other big thing which goes to the very first point I made at the beginning is there enough power on the planet to turn all this stuff in the first place because we know there's plenty of chips and the chip makers are building them as

quickly as they can but uh this is North America think of the production of compute 33 35 gawatt is planned for next

year but there is a problem they may not be able to turn them all on because the power and the transformers may not be there and the shortfall could

be as high as 13 to 15 gawatt of that 33 35 gawatt that's the big problem China um 40 to 45 gaw they could also have a

shortfall of two so that is the big problem you can have all the chips in the world but if you don't have the facilities the power to actually turn them on which could be a big problem but this is where this is important if the

demand continues to go up and I'll repeat this in and nobody else can deliver compute.

What happens to the price of compute?

The answer is it goes to the moon and SpaceX make even more money per gigawatt. They'll be able to pull in

gigawatt. They'll be able to pull in maybe $50 billion per gigawatt or $60 billion per gigawatt which is all built and up and running. And the simple

graphic here I'm trying to share is as compute demand goes through the roof and nobody has the ability to deliver in time or at least not for two and a half plus 3 years

the demand will explode and there's only one company in the catbird seat to take advantage of this and that is SpaceX.

That's why they've been building handover fist and have huge crack teams of SpaceX engineers building out these data centers because it is a gateway to

massive revenue and profits. Massive.

That's why it'll be very interesting to be on the earnings call this week to see exactly what they've achieved. Anyhow,

back to the stuff you're all interested in as well. Merger update with Tesla facts versus rumors. So much stuff flying around, you know, poly markets and calcies and experts and analysts and

everybody's kind of at this stage is like just merge already. We're tired of hearing about it. So first of all, Barclays came out last week as well.

They modeled SpaceX acquiring Tesla in an all stock deal as the likelier structure. Again, it was speculation.

structure. Again, it was speculation.

No, not a deal. Uh Tesla has their annual meeting on December 3rd. Uh

there's no mention of a merger in the ballot, etc. So that's another thing.

So, it's not going to happen that soon, I don't believe. Um, Tesla has, of course, a big multi-billion dollar stake in XAI, which became SpaceX shares. So,

that's good. There's already kind of co-ownership there. But again, there's

co-ownership there. But again, there's no AKs, there's no press releases, no nothing. But Elon is also hinting at it

nothing. But Elon is also hinting at it in some very breadcrumb like SpaceX, Tesla tweets and things. And of course,

we had the car show last week. The best

demo I've ever seen in my life. Caused a

lot of EDS, but still was fun. Anyhow,

um these two companies are going together. The question is when? And when

together. The question is when? And when

we look at the prediction markets, the odds of SpaceX Tesla merger spiked over the last few days to nearly 60% circa

spring 2027.

That is what 5 6 months away. Not far.

60% chance is pretty high. If you go to Koshi, you'll see the same thing. This

could be Koshi. This is Koshi. If you go to Poly Market, it's pretty much the same thing, too. The odds are spiking.

So, something is cooking for sure. Now,

getting back, if we get get into the numbers and some new price predictions, too. This is where it gets interesting.

too. This is where it gets interesting.

So, how bullish should you be? Okay,

they have so many moes. They have so much ability to do stuff so fast. They

got Jensen Wong in the pocket. Rumors I

heard from a visual source they've locked up 30 to 40% of the Vera Rubin allocation from Nvidia. Some of those are going to go into space next year as well. They're building a special version

well. They're building a special version of that that is going to be what's it called? Radiation capable for I see you

called? Radiation capable for I see you cipher sniper. He's a a space guru

cipher sniper. He's a a space guru understands the importance of radiation proofing your chips up there. Um there's

also rumor of $40 billion Nvidia financing which is in talks with Apollo.

Remember, if Jensen and Elon want $40 billion, they just wave their hand and say, "Give it to me." They have no problem raising cash. No problem at all.

Uh Ark believe Tesla, SpaceX will get to 66 to 67 gawatt by 2031. That goes into my valuation model, by the way. And Musk

said he would be very disappointed if that's all they get to. So again,

they've got the Moes, they got the advantages, the ability to build. nobody

else is able to keep up with them or monetize things quicker. This means you should be very bullish and I'm only talking compute, nothing more. So, this

is my latest number 12 or 13. I do like the number 13 by the way of SpaceX Elon Web Services compute by 2031 price

target only.

And again, the more compute they have, the more scale they have, the more profitability they have. So bear that in mind when you look at the IBITA and we're going to go into way more depth or

depth regarding these price prediction models. But just my base case of 66.5

models. But just my base case of 66.5 uh gawatts of online compute by 2031.

Elon says it's going to be a lot higher than that. That would take the price of

than that. That would take the price of just just the compute business alone of SpaceX. Nothing else. No value

SpaceX. Nothing else. No value

attributed to Launch or uh Star Shield or any of the other goods, Starlink, nothing. Just compute. That would take

nothing. Just compute. That would take the share price in a very conservative multiple of $825 from here. That's a

5.65x.

If we get to the bull case and doubling the gigawatts online, that would take the share price to nearly $4,000 and 21.7x from here. That is just compute.

Please don't confuse this with anything else. And remember, as I said before

else. And remember, as I said before many times, the retireon bag for SpaceX needs to be about 655 shares. So, if we

go back here, 655 shares uh times D times that price target 825 gets you about $540,000

approximately. And of course, nearly

approximately. And of course, nearly $4,000, 655 shares is about 2.4 million just for the compute piece. And the idea of that

target, by the way, is what gets you to a million dollars of value in the year 2032.

The point I'm trying to make here is the compute business alone gets you there very fast. So, um, my job was to build a

very fast. So, um, my job was to build a SpaceX retirey bag. Uh, I got that done.

And, uh, Tesla doesn't go away either.

They're going to merge. There will be a premium. We don't know how much yet. So,

premium. We don't know how much yet. So,

let's finish with uh, this was inspired by so in the community he put together.

You have to pick one which will outperform the next four years. By the

way, 0.18 of a Bitcoin is $15,000. 100

shares of SpaceX is $15,000.

And the poll results were one vote that Bitcoin would outperform SpaceX. 100

shares of SpaceX, 78% of the vote.

Ignore the last part, brothers. Waste of

time. But we did a different poll as well. Shout out to the team behind me

well. Shout out to the team behind me who should have sent it to me. Uh here

we are. Um which will perform better? So

the poll said 18 of a Bitcoin. 26% of

you believe Bitcoin will outperform SpaceX. uh and 100 up before 100 shares

SpaceX. uh and 100 up before 100 shares of SpaceX, 0.18 Bitcoin. 74% of you said 100 shares of SpaceX. So,

it's good to have both. But I do very much believe that AI is the faster horse. Bitcoin is there in case the

horse. Bitcoin is there in case the world goes to poop, which it is. That

direction is pretty clear. Anyway, um

that was the story today, my friends. I

hope you enjoyed it. I hope you all learned something new.

Big thank you to everybody for coming.

And of course, huge shout out to Bow Horn again, GQ Trader, Bman, Boo McDuck, Nick M, I am Cold, Holly, Aale, long-term holder. Never seen a company

long-term holder. Never seen a company like this in my life, ever. And I used to say I've never seen a company like Tesla either, but wow. Can you imagine the two of them together? That's going

to be wild. Thank you, Shund Cybern Tesla. Everybody, take care. Back

Tesla. Everybody, take care. Back

tomorrow for Octa.

get start building a bag of Tesla Tesla SpaceX if you haven't already. Uh I know that the prices are different. There's

unlocks coming and everything else, but this will be interesting from an earnings perspective. Let's see if we

earnings perspective. Let's see if we get some nice earning surprises, too.

Thanks all. Have a good night. Bye.