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Hello everyone, welcome Bumingbai podcast, I'm the host Yuan Li The United States and Israel joined forces to launch military strikes on Iran The situation in the Middle East suddenly heated up Iran's nuclear facilities were destroyed, the navy and air force were severely damaged, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and several senior leaders were killed

This series of events has completely changed the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East It also has a profound impact on the global economy and the politics of major powers Is it a deliberate strategic move or an adventure without a clear exit course?

What exactly is the goal of the Trump administration: regime change, nuclear disarmament or just putting the tiger unconscious Is Iran's strategy of attacking civilian infrastructure in the Gulf countries expanding its leverage or accelerating the collapse of the regime How this war will reshape the order of the global energy market and even the position of the United States on the world stage

In this program, we invited Mr. Shi Jianyu, an associate researcher at the National Security Research Institute of the Taiwan National Defense and Security Research Institute Mr. Shi has long studied terrorism and counter-terrorism, Chinese national politics and Uyghur nationalism

China's relations with its neighbors are one of the few scholars in the Chinese-speaking world who can simultaneously understand the strategy of China and the Taiwan Strait in the Middle East Hello Mr. Samurai Hello Today is March 7, exactly a week after the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran

Can you give us a brief overview of the current situation in the U.S., Israel, and Iran wars?

In fact, this military operation between the United States and Israel has indeed achieved some initial results Of course, the continued attack on Tehran, which is an important military stronghold around the Iranian capital There are also key air raids on key aircraft facilities, which are still in the air raid phase

Of course, there were some casualties, and of course, the 49 or even more than 50 beheaded were already on the rise But in addition to these political elites, it did cause some civilian uprisings After all, in military operations, these are sometimes unavoidable

Of course, Iran has also begun to respond, and it has not begun to be like at the end of last year It basically did nothing to respond to the Twelve Day War Then it starts to respond, and it has become a regional response It's not just attacking Israel, it's attacking U.S. military bases

Attacking this important facility in several countries around the Gulf countries That even caused the Helms Strait It is the place where oil tankers and tankers go out in the Gulf region that has caused a certain amount of panic

Then this traffic volume is also decreasing, so it is difficult to say whether it can be restored Indeed, oil prices have begun to climb, and this is now 90 dollars a barrel has gone up If the situation is not resolved it It is also possible for oil prices to climb to 150

Then let's talk about why the United States and Israel launched this war against Iran If you write a national security analysis report to the President of the United States before the war starts How would you analyze what are the pros and cons of fighting this battle and what are the biggest risks From the current point of view, he does have this military ability

To do such a massive decapitation, and then it's very precise and fast The intelligence collection is also very good, and it works well with Israel Of course, he now claims that he has achieved some goals For example, on the one hand, it is decapitation, and on the other hand, it is to destroy Iran's military capabilities

It was also agreed that whether it was the navy or the air force, although Iranian missiles could still fight back But how much ability can you fight back It should be very clear in another week In any case, Iran's military strategic capabilities have been severely hit

And his regime has also been extremely weakened As for whether it will reach the regime change that President Trump said How does this define this regime?

If the top 50 of the 50 political elites in any country are removed In fact, the first pick is gone Can the second person be called regime change?

If you say it in a broad sense, yes Of course, this is not what the United States and Israel think What he wanted was to say that he wanted a new regime That regime is pro-American and pro-Israel If we were to achieve this goal, of course, it is not possible now However, there are still some risks that can be seen from now Will this war drag on?

If it drags on, there will definitely be a lot of negative effects Especially the problem of the Helms Strait The problem of transporting that oil That will be if there is no way to solve it If oil prices continue to rise If you definitely climb up It will definitely have an impact on the economic development of the world in 2026

And oil has a supply chain, an industrial chain He didn't just come out of crude oil He also had oil refining and the petrochemical industry And there are many people who come out here to go to Asia That Asia includes Southeast Asia, including India, including China Including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all in it

This will lead to strong economic problems Of course, this will also affect the American economy Causing a certain amount of pressure and damage This is also very obvious And this is turmoil in the energy market The other one is It may also become more complex Regional multilateral wars What kind of situation will it be?

I don't know If the United States is with Israel No matter what form it is sent to the ground forces That would be more complicated So I don't know the current situation Just if I were his staff or think tank I will definitely tell him Are you ready for it?

If you weren't prepared You may want to accept it when you see it Otherwise, it may become a saying You brought the energy crisis to life Disruption of maritime transport And then we didn't know it would appear What kind of regional retaliation In fact, about 15 to 20 years ago It was after 911

Bin Laden of collective organization After being killed in Pakistan He brought out a lot of files from his computer Later, the CIA did an analysis Now these are announced At that time, bin Laden was cut off from communication Don't dare to use the phone or the Internet So many of his crazy ideas were not implemented

I believe Iran is aware of these ideas now He is actually still restrained Although he shoots missiles He also knew that the missiles could be a little heavy Some are also given by the United States Or the United States helped intercept it He didn't make a death move It is to fight to death If you fight to death Bin Laden said it back then

He certainly uses terrorist tactics The technique of standard asymmetric warfare He said he wanted to work under the capabilities of his organization Build dozens or even hundreds of speedboats in the Persian Gulf Then load bombs on top of the speedboat Then there is a planned rush to the bay

These important ports for transporting oil It is even said that it rushes to these oil-carrying tankers These tankers if blackmailed He was actually going to create a second 911 terrorist attack This ability is done in this way In fact, Iran is absolutely capable of doing this now If you do this, you will fight to death

Everyone just didn't want to end such a thing After destroying it, it destroys the world's oil A large part is not all At least a quarter of them were destroyed Nor can it be said that it is completely impossible If he is already in the end The Chinese talk about dogs jumping over the wall

We cannot rule out any Unless before this happens The U.S. government or the Israeli government has already thought about it

The U.S. government or the Israeli government has already thought about it Other possibilities Otherwise, this energy must be transported And the expansion of this war is also taken into account If there is no way to achieve this originally setting The ultimate goal of the regime shift Then let's talk about the Trump administration

His statements on the goals of the war so far It seems to be changing all the time For example, it was initially said to destroy nuclear facilities It later became a regime change The latest statement is that Iran is needed Unconditional surrender These expressions are considered by some observers vague and even contradictory

Do you think there is a clear reason for this war?

and the standard of victory I asked this question because it is Everyone wants to know very well That is to say, he has to have a goal Only then did I know how long this battle might take I think he just pulled this tone very high now He has a ruler in his heart That's how he said it back and forth

In fact, he really wants to build a new one The regime of pro-American, pro-Israel, friendly Iran It's just that this one is difficult If his goal is really set here I think it may be impractical to some extent But this strategic result he has now achieved In fact, I think it's already very good

Then add his recent relationship with Iran The Kurds in the northwest This Kurdish is basically in Iran Then there is Iraq next door and Turkey Some of them happen to be at this junction The Kurds on the Iranian side are also willing to cooperate with him This is equivalent to being in Iran It is his territory

A deterrent force is planted within the territory of the sovereign territory Although that containment force may not be able to replace the current regime Then surrender unconditionally Of course, he just needs to exhaust all his military power He is still in the process of doing this Maybe another week I think he will do it in ten more days Iran's ability to counterattack may be almost exhausted

When it runs out But even if he is exhausted, I don't know if he will surrender Because after all, you are not sent to the ground forces You didn't occupy In the history of modern times for a hundred or even two hundred years There is no mention of air strikes It can make a regime transfer successful Even after the transfer, it could be a more chaotic situation

It will not reach the original setting There is a pro-Western one Or even pro-American and pro-Israeli regimes have emerged This can be said a little more Basically at the beginning of the war or before the start of the war It is said that Iranians actually hate the current theological regime I resented this theological regime This is definitely a fact My colleague at The New York Times

He has been reporting on Iran all year round He said that 80 percent of the Iranian population does not support the theocratic government Only about 20% support I was quite shocked when I heard this number That is to say, 80% are against it The first is how you look at the number Another is that even if so many people oppose it

President Trump said he hoped the Iranian people would stand up Is the expectation of overthrowing the constitutional regime real?

I think your colleague from the New York Times is polite You're welcome I know he has some data to analyze Some surveys do say 80% But I believe it may be more than 80%.

Of course, some people say that it may not be that high Because in this totalitarian country you do investigations Your investigation is definitely very limited But also the question of monitoring So how credible is your one?

And after all, Iran is not a country baptized by democratic politics Although it is a person who has read books I have read books and are basically literate Probably dissatisfied with the current regime But ordinary farmers or ordinary people There may be such a high level of dissatisfaction Or they may not even know what the dissatisfaction is

It is dissatisfaction with the overthrow of the regime Or is it dissatisfaction with this mysterious regime or something It's not clear But generally speaking Generally it is my Iranian friends I know Of course they have all read books Not migrant workers So they absolutely I don't know anyone who is happy with the current mysterious regime This is a fact So this is not an exaggeration

I think the U.S. government is well aware of this But let's talk about it in more detail Who still supports this regime?

Some people really support it But I really support those 50 to 100 Maybe it's almost the same now And of course the direct army Allegiance of the Revolutionary Guards Of course there is And of course government civil servants No matter what class of cadres it is These civil servants may be passive support Because as long as the government pays a salary He is willing to support it

If this government is gone He had no money to eat So this is a lot Of course some do not support it He was just dissatisfied He does not necessarily say that he wants to oppose resistance Of course we see Gather in Europe or the Western world These in the United States are dissatisfied with the community The protesting crowd After all, they have lived in Western society for a long time

They may also be just 20% So there are two extremes There are many people in the middle Isn't that as clear as you said?

It's one thing that I'm dissatisfied with the government I don't feel like I can overthrow this government It's another story I think this is the case in many countries Whether in China or Central Asia Or to Russia This is true It happens very often every time you have a certain period of time And Venezuela is not

Yes Right is So in such a situation You say through a game Military operations coming in from outside Then it catalyzed the uprising in the country This revolutionary uprising There is no certain possibility of this

And important Why is there no possibility?

You can talk about it again After all, the regime has not completely collapsed We can see it It is that he still has the power to fight back And his Revolutionary Guard army Still functioning, albeit weakened But he didn't disappear And at the same time If you want to start from the grassroots It is from the perspective of the general public How do you organize them for this activity?

This was actually seen at the end of last year I think Iran may have learned from China It is the problem of disconnection Because indeed The telecommunications facility in Iran It may also be Huawei and China All of them are Huawei's is So he would tell him too If you can't do it, break it all Just like in Xinjiang is

After it is broken People everywhere They are dissatisfied None of them can be connected in series Because they also have no information They can communicate with each other Under such circumstances How do they go in series?

And then continue to resist the government Because this is a process of boiling water To boil That never boiled And at the same time, someone had to tell him I overthrew this government Who will replace it?

What is the alternative to politics?

What kind of regime is to be established?

If none of this is available That means pinning hope on the Iranian people Establish a new regime I think this can be said But the problem is You have to have a method Let them do it If you want to do it Your ground troops are sent in again Then you send it in is actually a big problem I think the American experience is already very rich It was in the past

From the Cold War to the present After you send it in Maybe you can support a pro-American regime But in fact That pro-American regime Is it possible?

It is to shoulder this responsibility It's still the same corruption Then it was said More people are dissatisfied There is no way to judge this now I think the U.S. government is very clear If you do it like this It may make it difficult for the United States to get out of Afghanistan Now he is running into Iran again

It's stuck in another quagmire, right?

And the United States is very concerned about this war There were a lot of opposition from the beginning This is still hollow We are going to send this American ground force I think the resistance in the United States is very, very large Americans have passed decades The war has already been fought I just don't want to fight again

Then let me ask you another question We talked about it earlier That is to say, Iran has adopted a rather controversial strategy He not only attacked the United States in the Gulf This is the base of the garrison of these countries It also attacked many countries in the Gulf This civilian infrastructure And these These Arab countries have played a role in the past This role of mediator between the United States and Iran

You think Iran is doing that It's expanding his chips Or is it accelerating the collapse of his regime?

That is to say, why did he make such a move It seems that everyone thinks now His trick is quite bad A faint move It's like playing chess Is this really the case?

I think there are all kinds of rumors about this Because after all, he is the commander of this central government This system has been broken up This has been discussed a lot in recent years Taiwan is also discussing It is if the central command system is disbanded It is equivalent to scattering everywhere Each place has its own army

The command system of each subordinate level began to intervene The subordinate command system was at his discretion Then resist according to his abilities Of course, he came from somewhere Or his abilities His missiles can hit anywhere He started to lose This is certainly possible Recently, there have been rumors in Tehran, Iran

He wants to stop these attacks on the Gulf countries Saying that this is the practice of each place This is not true That's the problem Do you think this approach is good for Iran?

I don't think it's good in the long run Definitely not a benefit After such an attack This includes attacks on civilian facilities It even caused airports to be unable to take off and land Causing the tour not to go out, etc This would form an alliance against Iran in the Gulf In the long run, he must cooperate with the United States

He didn't cooperate, and he couldn't stop these attacks So he was in this situation Iran is tantamount to putting itself next to it Although not those people are not necessarily friends But there must be some sympathy for him After all, they are still neighbors You push to this place They will move closer to the United States This is definitely in foreign policy

This one is absolutely devastating And you waste a lot of your weapons and ammo You cast in this place You are abusing this thing You don't use what you should really use to resist Increase you If you want to prolong this war Iran definitely does not have updated weapons and ammunition coming in now You have to save money

Hit on the edge of the knife Hit those things like this In fact, it is an unwise approach to oneself Okay Let's talk about it China's role and influence in this war China and Iran signed it in 2021 Comprehensive strategic partnership agreement By 2025 More than 55% of China's oil imports come from the Middle East

About 13% of them came from Iran And almost all of them have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz It makes sense Beijing should have a strong incentive to support Tehran But after the outbreak of war Beijing's statement was also issued relatively late The wording is also relatively conservative At the same time, I also see You were interviewed by the media in January this year Just judge

That's what you said Although China and Iran have very close ties But from a military point of view China intervened in Iran's military operations The odds are basically slim Close to zero What are you based on to make this judgment?

What do you think It is believed by many Western analysts China will definitely take action This is actually very simple Because China talks a lot He has various partnerships He signed a strategic partnership around the clock What deepens What various partnerships In fact, that one seems to be very great Everyone is super close-knit good friends

It's not that close The partnership between China and Iran In fact, he also talked about many of his documents It is not a military alliance He has no obligation to defend each other He never had one Despite what he says very well about strategic partnerships But in fact, he did not have any treaties to talk about They have an obligation to defend each other

Maybe he transferred some military weapons to sell to him Or have some support There are even some exchanges But that was just that Not when you fight I am going to fight you He is not a security alliance His strategic partner is to stay in energy supply Energy security

And at most add later Infrastructure construction of the Belt and Road In addition, China actually cares a lot The Strait of the Nuclear Mother is a trade route In other words If Iran wants to open this trade channel If you block it China definitely stood up against it So in this regard The United States and China have the same interests

So in this regard From this point of view He could not have supported Iran Carry out any military operations Because it hasn't reached that point yet Even if one day China wants to dominate Expand up to Eurasia This is not the situation yet Again, China has no successful experience in the past Fighting overseas

The PLA did not have this successful experience Then why would he be in Iran At this time, you have to take action That shot was not good This is a big problem I've discussed it on other issues before China may be the People's Liberation Army He has been reforming the People's Liberation Army for more than ten years On Xi Jinping's People's Liberation Army reform

Then Xi Jinping may not be satisfied until now Then Zhang Youxia woke up a while ago Others In short, if the People's Liberation Army wants to fight He also wanted to talk about China very much: Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up began in 1978 He has piloted everything, including the Xinjiang re-education camp, and he has actually piloted it He really started to push 2017 on a large scale

However, the strategy of Xinjiang re-education camp has been decided in 2014 So he piloted it for about three or four years If the Chinese People's Liberation Army wants to start fighting He will definitely not take Taiwan as a pilot Because Taiwan cannot fail the pilot test, it will fail Then he won't take the Iran pilot, then this shame will be too far away

He wants to pilot a small-scale military conflict around China He tried it, and he's trying it now But he is not trying to enter an armed conflict now For example, he ran around the Taiwan Strait to the South China Sea to try Even cross the Taiwan Strait to the second island chain to try Guam

But that's still an exercise, not really a military conflict with you So from the perspective of the PLA's capabilities He could not have intervened in any military conflict in Iran Moreover, Chinese also said that the core interest of his security is in the Taiwan Strait It is in the South China Sea and the East China Sea

The East China Sea is basically talking about the problem of Diaoyutai There is also the question of the Korean Peninsula The Persian Gulf or the Gulf is not the most important place for his military security Moreover, Iran and China are not only importing oil from Iran

China has a certain degree of friendly relations with the countries of the Gulf as a whole So his diplomatic measures this time In fact, I think diplomatic measures are enough But he still stood on his original position He also made it very clear I also have another question, for example, China's Russia-Ukraine war It is Moscow that has been supplied with this dual-purpose technology

Components have even become the lifeline of the Russian economy to some extent But he does treat Iran completely differently Is this a strategic order indicated by Beijing?

Is it the deeper geologic behind him?

Can you tell us a little bit?

From Beijing's point of view, what is the difference between Iran and Russia?

Russia, of course, is different Russia has a lot of things that China needs Iran's relative simplicity is oil Russia still has a lot of military problems Then there is the issue of safety around him And in fact, China supports Russia in fighting the war in Ukraine

He can make a lot of profit economically And even through this war How to say that he also expanded into Central Asia These countries in Central Asia have become his entrepot trading countries In fact, I do not re-export through entre-exporting trading countries Re-exporting is equivalent to making them a little money too Making a little money is attached to China

For example, Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous country It used to be Li Bai's hometown All in all, what Kyrgyzstan sells to China every year It could be only a few hundred million dollars, at most less than a billion dollars But China has been in the past three to four years Exports in Kyrgyzstan China export to theirs

It grows with 20% every year Now it's almost $20 billion How can Kyrgyzstan eat $20 billion in goods?

Basically, they all passed through him It's in Russia again So Kyrgyzstan also benefited from the process of re-exporting Of course, he is attached to the process of China's economy and trade And it's not just Kyrgyzstan, there are other countries So all in all, he certainly thinks so Russia is something that can be sustained for a long time Iran is different

I believe if he has this ability He will also be willing to support to a certain extent Although there is no need for this now And he doesn't have this ability If for Iran, the United States, and Israel Even the Gulf countries are in conflict This is not worth the loss for China And he is playing a tactic now It may be waiting for the fisherman to make a profit

If that's what we just talked about If this war The US government has no way to accept it when it sees good If something goes wrong Of course, there is also this possibility It's not entirely impossible Then he can make a profit from the fisherman China wants this war to be fought for a long time If it's just a black heart

Beijing may say that it will continue to fight The longer you fight, the better the United States will cheer up this year Despite what some people say, cheering up is effective Some people say that cheering up doesn't work But no matter what The city turns into clouds and smoke This tariff is also of little use You are trapped in a whirlpool of war again In fact, Beijing may be optimistic

The longer you play, the better Then what do you think is what you say?

What China most wants to see is the outcome of this war What is the last thing to see Just now you said that what he hopes for the most may be Hit hard After fighting, the United States fell into another war Right, the United States is a little distracted by China Right, and there is a lot of energy and resources All of them have to be put into this war

And now it is the competition between China and the United States This is definitely good for China It is for Beijing What is the least ideal result?

The least ideal is actually yes What we just talked about at the beginning If Tehran is Iran, then there is one Pro-American or pro-Western regimes This is definitely what Beijing does not want to see Of course, his assessment is what it says The chances of this possibility are not so high So he is still waiting to see how this situation develops

If such a situation arises In fact, this one for China This oil source will actually affect it Just like Venezuela is a standard case However, Venezuela is relatively simple The U.S. government

The U.S. government

His government was equivalent to overnight This problem was solved That's not the case in Iran If Iran also becomes yes Like the situation in Venezuela That China is absolutely unhappy And this may have an impact The development of later US-China relations Of course, I believe Beijing is now speculating That's the current situation Because it's still elastic

The U.S. government can accept it at any time

The U.S. government can accept it at any time Or put it in a controllable situation It's just what I don't want If you push the ground troops out Basically, they still throw bombs at each other Vote for the last word Iran is definitely at a disadvantage After all, he has nothing new There are no new weapons He will always run out of day It is a war of attrition After the war of attrition is over

In fact, the United States can delay if it wants But of course it will burn Some of the economic capabilities of the United States have begun If it drags on any longer, it will drag on his regime Let's see if it will collapse Of course I don't know about this Will the U.S. government have a more detailed plan?

If he were to do it Unless he's sure He has a plan to have a new one The regime within Iran rose Then replace the current regime This is the regime change If this appears Of course, Beijing is unhappy But Beijing thinks this This body of knowledge This will be at least half a year later

Will there be a clue?

There is a clue It is not visible at the moment So he wasn't worried yet The only thing he was worried about right now It is the strait of nuclear weapons that is locked Of course, this lock-up is not just a problem for China This is a problem for many countries Almost a global problem So his side He must have tried too

He will never surrender in this regard He will definitely talk to Iran Don't do this thing This will lead to the burning of jade I believe everyone involved understands We mentioned at the beginning Bin Laden had such a plan at that time That if Iran is going to do it He can definitely do it The entire Gulf is not a strait of nuclear weapons The strait of nuclear weapons goes inside All the bays

There are basically no boats to run in that place Then the whole thing is poured But it doesn't seem to be yet Not ready to do such a thing There is also a possibility If there is no way to put pressure on the United States at present If the assumption is that there is no way to sustain it Or if you enter a vicious vortex

That is, sent to the ground forces Then wait Although it weakens Iran's regime or capabilities But he did not fall Later very weak But the problem is that the theological regime continues Although as Trump said said he couldn't stand up for 10 years But I can't stand up for 10 years That doesn't mean he won't be anti-American

He will stand up one day He still continued to be anti-American So in this situation The first American enterprise It is impossible to enter Iran to grab this oil source It is basically difficult for companies to come to Europe again I believe it will be difficult to get in Because sanctions are still ongoing Sanctions will continue At this time, it is equivalent to breaking Iran Then China came back to fill it In fact, this is absolute

I think from an American perspective The last thing you want to see That's why Now we are in a paradoxical situation It's that I've done so much But if you don't do it to the end Surgery is equivalent to cutting out the cancer But will it be 5 years, 10 years?

At the time of relapse At that time, it can't be cleaned up This is a very contradictory feeling Of course Trump might think It's big, far away He kept talking about MAGA Of course, he hopes to solve it completely But this is If it is a relatively irresponsible politician He said I only did it, and I still have 3 years to do it Trump is not young

Even if Jerry Powell takes him in the future Or Mark Rubio will take him But to what extent It's hard to say So in this case You are like having another tail That tail is simply that A situation where the spring breeze blows again The future troubles are endless Yes yes yes So now he has also entered this dilemma

But it seems that there is no way to solve this problem After Hamas attacked Israel in 2023 You mentioned in one of your analysis The war in the Middle East continues to spread One of the biggest long-term sequelae It may be an extreme force that intensifies the Islamic world This judgment is placed today In this context, the United States and Iran are directly at war You think this risk is even greater

Or is the logic actually a little different this time?

It can't be said to be bigger But it is definitely possible to recover There is actually nothing strange about this Because if the theological regime continues That's except for Iran to the Arab world Even to Turkey It may also go to Southeast Asia in Asia

As long as they believe in Islam This Muslim majority of these countries Basically, they will feel like saying This war is bullying the small Ordinary people don't think so complicated The global landscape we just talked about What energy is the United States thinking about?

They don't think so They will feel that this is a continuation of the continuation It is from imperialism It has continued from 300 years ago to the present It is these Muslim countries that cannot stand up It is because of these Western imperialisms Of course, in the past, it was European-dominated imperialism Let's talk about it now This situation is led by the United States

This can also be divided into anti-Western achievements The anti-Western rhetoric will continue Then innovate the old Then the religious leaders will continue to talk about it Although we say that there are not many people who sympathize with the theological regime The question is whether there is or not There may be some Not yet Because after all, it only happened for a few days

Will there be a so-called?

This kind of lone wolf lone wolf style These terrorist attacks are in Europe I guess it's probably not possible in the United States Because the United States has been very strict in recent years Plus what has been discussed recently It is the military that intervenes in the United States' AI There is also mass surveillance It's that Android pick With that

and OpenAI If those things really have this ability That means that American society is also very closely watched So it's not easy to appear But Europe is not To France to Germany It may be that these lone wolves are lone wolf at any time So that's one of them Because their former colonies came over

The second generation, the third generation, and the fourth generation of immigrants There are many Muslim immigrants Except of course they may be to the Trump administration in the United States The tariffs of the year may not be satisfied Or it hurts their traditional European countries The pride of an ancient empire On the other hand Their society does have this need If he hits too hard

This lone wolf-like revenge will appear And even if he can't do large-scale attacks He may be targeting some soft ones Retaliatory attacks on easier targets That doesn't even rule out Iran If this war eases a little Under the circumstances

Iran may also be his security intelligence organization may also mobilize his men around the world Carry out some stealthy attacks For those who supported the United States to fight Iran at that time Make some revenge This can happen Interpol recently I seem to see one

It is they who think that this should be strictly guarded against Because it will cause internal turmoil at any time Because indeed, if Iran does These sporadic terrorist attacks His words behind his back It will have a great impact on local public opinion Of course, in the United States, he may not be able to do it yet But he also declared before

He wants to assassinate President Trump He can't do it But the problem is elsewhere He may not be able to do it to a certain extent If the war eases a little He calmed down He could start using this as revenge So European countries are actually far away This time even stands in the United States It's completely from the perspective of sitting by

Of course, this is also one of the reasons It's not that it's impossible in Asia In fact, I think East Asia is dangerous Probably in the future Because of this in East Asia Crisis awareness of terrorist attacks Not as strong as in Europe Because Europe has been in the past ten years There have been some very violent shocks East Asia is not impossible

From this point of view Of course, it is understandable How is China responding to this question now?

Basically he just said good things But in reality he couldn't do anything That's probably the case US President Trump He is scheduled to visit China in late March and early April Held a summit with Xi Jinping Do you think Trump will be inclined End the war before visiting China?

This war against Iran How will it affect the topic of the China-US summit?

Of course, the biggest impact is Set the topics you want to talk about in Beijing This time it was shocked Because of the issue that Beijing originally wanted It must be a problem of tariff trade plus Taiwan This thing is exchanged for tariffs on Taiwan Or take tariffs in exchange for something else Of course, they will still talk Because of China's finance minister

Mr. Ho, Deputy Minister It seems to say that he will go next weekend Go to Paris to meet with the US Treasury Secretary He Lifeng and Benson He is, of course, talking about tariffs Talk about the trade of goods I think the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States I don't have much to think about now Discuss the details with him It is possible to discuss a trend

But now it's almost so close It is already finished in early March There are 2 or 3 weeks left It is impossible to talk clearly in two or three weeks But you can talk about it It's still a long time to start this year I think Trump will still go You said he was going to end the war before this I don't think it's that easy

Because Iran still has the ability to fight back At least for now Although this ability is reduced But it didn't disappear If he starts not fighting That's another story The ability to fight back is also Come back to this regime It doesn't seem to have been completely overturned Although the United States has achieved some results So he probably is

Put him in a controllable situation As for sending ground troops I think that is the body of knowledge This is unlikely for the time being That was not sent to the ground forces Air strikes continue But it is not completely out of order Then the Strait of Hormuz was not blocked Under the circumstances Although crude oil may rise

After arriving in Beijing, we will start talking This is a related issue of global security Discuss the Strait of Hormuz with China It cannot be blocked This is actually very harmful to China Of course, the United States can take advantage of the opportunity It is to discuss with China You may have to put a little effort into this

But it is impossible for this summit It is to end the war But he can still do it at the summit He has fruitfulness After all, this time there was fruition I believe that after Beijing saw it He would also want to say The PLA may not have this capability yet It's still a big difference I would like to ask you next For Beijing They look at Taiwan I really want to fight Taiwan

I especially want to fight Taiwan But think about the American one This military strength now Will you just say it?

Will you say something in your heart?

Oh no, we probably still can't I want to think about whether I want to fight Taiwan from beginning to end Of course, it has shaped a lot of public opinion In Chinese society Then this Chinese society is basically This has been fixed But the problem is It is the People's Liberation Army that really wants to fight Then the PLA generals are fully responsible

And this can only succeed, not fail And why do this?

Even if you take Taiwan back What did you get?

And the power of the People's Liberation Army To what extent I think of the high-level generals of the People's Liberation Army Not so sure Including Zhang Youxia, he may have a little restraint in his heart But the problem is that these things are Like a ball game You won't know until after the game How strong is he?

You didn't fight before How about I have a lot more weapons?"

But that's all your own opinion The actual operation is no So he looked at this United States this time Fight Venezuela and Iran This may be clear It's just that the strength is a big difference Then this is obvious As long as the United States does not fall into it If we fall into the same trap as we did in Afghanistan Beijing will be wary of this

This strategic capability of the United States Show this signal Then this must have a certain degree of deterrence It just scares you You'd better not act rashly Otherwise, I can you."

So in this case In fact, the Taiwan issue Of course, some commentators in the United States think so The Iran War saved Taiwan As long as the United States does not fall into the Iran war Then all of this is actually all It rescued Taiwan's urgent need But I don't think it's a complete rescue of Taiwan Because only Xi Jinping wants to take this Taiwan

This is one of his own careers This credit left by history His political legacy Yes yes yes But the problem is other PLAs Don't necessarily think about this question this way This question may not be the most important thing And the risk is extremely high But the actual gain is extremely small It's just that there is an illusion

This is a very illusory historical heritage Such a concept If you consolidate Iran That's right That is not just an island problem So in this case Even Xi Jinping may be slightly Put his 2027 or in the future Because he will want to be re-elected again next year

So if he continues to work for another 5 years All will be done after 2030 He may have felt that he might not have a good chance during his tenure Unless the world changes again In other words The summit between the United States and China in Beijing Probably the most important thing to talk about is energy security And how to stabilize the Middle East What can you do What can I do?

The one after that about tariffs That content about the goods of the trade transaction That can be talked about slowly Even the Taiwan issue Everyone can also take a step back Don't be tense It's just that you go back a little bit I also go back a little bit So be it Anyway, this is to a certain extent This is a fake issue

This is not a real issue The United States competes with China It is definitely not competing from the perspective of Taiwan I think about this war The main thing is to focus on this summit I re-set it It is set to say energy security Set to the situation in the Middle East At the same time, he told Xi Jinping The People's Liberation Army is still far from capable

It is possible that we will continue to reform That's not even that now Cleaned so many people You have to fill in those positions first It's not easy It is not easy This will take many years What else is there to say What you think we should know That's about it

I think of course it is war if it is short-term Words that can come to an end This is definitely a good thing Indeed, the results are all now It is positive for the United States If it is consumed for a long time, it will not be good for everyone Whether it is economic or energy In fact, it is military to the United States

The military industry is not necessarily a good thing Because it may not be possible to fill the gap now Of course, he can do a lot of experiments But after all, it will take a while And it will consume a lot of the national strength of the United States From Taiwan's point of view It is indeed to be a superpower With a small country that does not have enough military power

When you come to war There may be a lot to learn from For example, we mentioned earlier Iran went to the Gulf to ignite it I want to set fire to the wilderness I want everyone to pull into the water This is actually meaningless In fact, his bullets were wasted Then drive all your friends out

But Venice also saw it In fact, even such a country It may not be easy to overthrow him quickly Despite beheading so many political elites So it must be in this Some lessons were learned I believe the U.S. government has learned from it

Some of the lessons are that Iran is not Venezuela And then some things are not planned in advance Now Washington should be very clear Although we may not see it outside Probably they know it well What do you say take your time?

Slowly it was this war How it should continue to develop is the best If you enter an anticlimactic situation That's the worst The tiger head is very good But it's best not to have a snake tail Thank you, thank you, Mr. Samurai Thank you for listening See you next time