'Fast Money' traders talk Nvidia as the semiconductor giant partners with several big names
By CNBC Television
Summary
## Key takeaways - **Nvidia's Virtuous Cycle Strategy**: Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is creating a 'virtuous cycle' through strategic partnerships, which is seen as the primary method for increasing market capitalization in the current tech landscape. [00:16] - **AI Super Bowl and Infrastructure Dominance**: The GTC conference is dubbed the 'Super Bowl of AI,' where companies like Palantir and Crowdstrike are positioned to benefit from Nvidia's role as a fundamental AI infrastructure provider. [00:30] - **Analyst Expectations Exceeded**: Nvidia's recent performance suggests shipment increases of 25-50% above prior street expectations for Blackwell and Hopper, indicating a more extraordinary trajectory than previously anticipated. [01:03] - **Valuation Concerns and Financialization**: Nvidia's valuation, approaching 19 times revenue, raises concerns about being 'too far over our skis' due to the increasingly financialized and circular nature of its business model. [01:48], [03:03] - **Nvidia's Market Entrenchment**: Nvidia has successfully spread its influence across all facets of AI, from hardware to software and private companies, making its CUDA stack essential for future development and potentially justifying higher valuations. [04:11] - **Risk of Market Concentration**: The heavy reliance on Nvidia for market growth presents a risk to the broader market, as the current enthusiasm might be outpacing realistic growth potential. [03:33]
Topics Covered
- Wall Street underestimates Nvidia's AI infrastructure growth.
- Is Nvidia's "virtuous cycle" a financialization risk?
- How Nvidia became indispensable to the AI revolution.
Full Transcript
Jensen Hong is seemingly doing everything right. I mean, short of
everything right. I mean, short of gifting President Trump a golden GPU, he is ma he is, you know, courting the president in terms of echoing some of the sentiment that the administration
has regarding uh manufacturing in in America, etc., and then also making all these partnerships, which seems to be the way to put market cap onto your company these days. Inc, a partnership
and and the rest will follow.
>> Well, he even referred to it as a virtuous cycle. Um and so at what is
virtuous cycle. Um and so at what is called today was called in in in unofficially the Super Bowl of AI and you know all the companies whether it's Palanteer, Crowdstrike, you know, you name it. Um these are the companies that
name it. Um these are the companies that certainly will be part of it and what we've already learned about Nvidia over the last call it two months is that they really are a an AI infrastructure company and the way they are investing
and way they these deals have seemed somewhat circular in nature. just
getting to the numbers that we got that the analyst community now is scrambling over and what it means for valuations and a 4% move in Nvidia is probably the bigger move we've seen in Nvidia in a long time. Uh if you read at least some
long time. Uh if you read at least some of the analyst reports that I'm getting uh what's been implied by this 500 billion or half a trillion number is uh a lot of the street was somewhere
between Blackwell uh and Hopper somewhere around 350 to 400 at the higher end. So it means what we heard
higher end. So it means what we heard today is probably some increase of anywhere from 25 to 50% on what the street was expecting in terms of shipments between now and the end of 26.
That's extraordinary and Nvidia's always been this story where uh we've all known it was extraordinary and it was just how much more extraordinary. I think today was more extraordinary.
>> 100% Tim's right and you mentioned his he has a fiduciary responsibility to his shareholders and he's doing it extraordinarily well. So good for him.
extraordinarily well. So good for him.
Making deals, currying favor, all those things. Problem I've had incorrectly has
things. Problem I've had incorrectly has been, you know, price to sales. Now you
said $5 trillion. Let's round up. I
mean, this is a company now that's approaching 19 times revenue, which is a big number at this mature of a company, I think. But people will say it's a new
I think. But people will say it's a new paradigm. They will grow into that
paradigm. They will grow into that revenue. We shall see November 19th with
revenue. We shall see November 19th with this market move. That's when report.
It's going to be a fascinating day.
>> Yeah. You know, it's also interesting the clout that Jensen now is having. You
know, when uh you know, the president threatened to send troops to San Francisco. Uh Jensen was one of the CEOs
Francisco. Uh Jensen was one of the CEOs that got him on the horn and and he stepped back from that. And so, you know, we talk about this transactional nature that this administration has with business and I think that's a great example of it. You know, the one thing
I'd say about Nvidia and Mel, you just said that, you know, one way to add market cap to your company is do a deal with them. Well, Uber closed down in the
with them. Well, Uber closed down in the day. Palanteer actually was unchanged on
day. Palanteer actually was unchanged on the day and at some point it's not going to be that exciting to do a deal with them that's on the come in the future and I think when you you know there's been hundreds of companies that Nvidia
has invested in over the last few years and a lot of those investments have to do with these companies that was the Uber deal of buying these chips. So when
you get this half a trillion dollar number and this company's expected to do let's say $300 billion in sales next year you have to start scratching your head a little bit whether we're getting a little too far over our skis. And then
the other thing about this circular nature of all this investment and then they buy the chips back, you know, this is becoming very financialized. You
know, it used to be you sell a product, someone buys the product, they put in work, they get a profit from it. If it
goes really well, then they buy your next product, right? So you think about it now, a lot of this the the financings and all this stuff that's going on in and away from Nvidia 2, there is a lot tied into this one name right now that
used to not be it. It was a single play on the buildout of this theme and then we had the hyperscalers but now it's moving all over the place and it's infected the markets and there is risk to that. There is risk that people are
to that. There is risk that people are saying 5 trillion is going to be six trillion really soon and I just can't find anybody who thinks that there's some danger to this for the broad market not just this name in particular.
>> Yeah, I have a hard time arguing with that point. Um you talk you you
that point. Um you talk you you mentioned two terms >> as much as I'd like to >> circular um and and financial engineering. And I do want to
engineering. And I do want to acknowledge that there is a fair amount of that going on. With that said, I think I I view it through the opposite lens. The the knock on Nvidia coming in
lens. The the knock on Nvidia coming in was that it was a hardware company that it would be subject to cyclical nature and pullbacks. And what they've done and
and pullbacks. And what they've done and and it was somewhat self- serving likely, but what they essentially said was, listen, we want to push into China because we want the world being building
on our technology, American technology and Nvidia's technology. And all they've done is essentially replicate that within the United States. They are now on the public and private side with this
Palunteer deal. They have um backed
Palunteer deal. They have um backed Circle and uh the Neocloud companies.
There is no way to continue to build up without being on the CUDA stack, whether it be the individual chip. They have
found a way to spread their tentacles, if you will, into all of the different facets of AI. And that is why I think that maybe the five or six trillion dollar number might actually be too low.
There seems to be no way to push forward into AI. And we were worried about what
into AI. And we were worried about what their role would be within a agentic and inference a AI. And now they've kind of leapfrogged themselves into a leadership position in that next wave. And so it it
is circular and I want to acknowledge the risk that you're that you're putting out there, but it essentially guarantees that they continue to be at the very center of this AI flywheel.
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