Finding Edge as a Trader, The Hyperliquid Thesis & Trades For 2026 | Capital Flows

All right, welcome back to another great ThousandX podcast interview. We've got a very special guest today. Uh, somebody

that I followed on Twitter for quite some time and has continuously puts out very long and informative videos and also I think has some of the most

insightful views on the markets. Welcome

Capital Flows to the ThousandX podcast.

>> Hey, thanks for uh thanks for having me on.

Um it's really good to it's really good to have you here. I want to start with the fact that you've built um you know you you built a pretty strong reputation

in the space uh as a is a pretty insightful global macro trader. I think

you you talk about rates a lot you talk about FX you talk about equities and you also produce these pretty indepth educational primers dynamic models on capital flows which is where your name

comes from. I I I'm kind of curious as

comes from. I I I'm kind of curious as to like where where did you get started?

Like how did you get started in this space? Where what's what's your

space? Where what's what's your background?

>> Yeah. Well, my my approach has always kind of started with interest rates. I

guess my my start was always I was kind of looking and trying to you know figure out the macro landscape and you know

really get a read into how exactly you know I can have a a view on kind of the largest drivers in markets and things like that. And I think that over over

like that. And I think that over over the years I have really spent a lot of time focusing and trading interest rates. And

rates. And you know that has been a place that I've spent a lot of time building models. Um

a lot newer stuff these days that you know I never even thought I would probably end up spending time on. um

with all of the machine learning and agentic models that are kind of hitting the market right now um or have been for the last year. But I've always

approached the kind of entire system as how exactly do I have, you know, some type of read on whatever is going to

push things around the most. And um I've I've always found kind of like out part of it was out of necessity because of previous roles that I was in, but um

knowing the changes in interest rates, how they impact different asset classes and I kind of always start with where where are we at in the pricing of rates

across the curve and then when I go through any other assets or themes, I kind of connect rates to those and FX to those and begin to break down every major economic data point and kind of

like start building a framework for that. But a lot of it really stemmed

that. But a lot of it really stemmed from just trying to be better at taking risk and have more informed views around that. And so I think that's a lot of the

that. And so I think that's a lot of the the starting point that I had where I was just trying to say like what exactly is kind of moving rates around, what exactly are the largest drivers in the

cycle and things like that. And I would say as a as a trader, um, even though I kind of a lot of the stuff that I build and trade is around rates, um, I don't really have, we were kind of talking

about this right before, but I don't really have a issue either going wherever. I just think that there's

wherever. I just think that there's going to be edge and alpha. I have no issue going into single name stocks or other things, whatever it might be. Um,

and so the I think I started the Substack and all the research that I put out sometime in 2023, beginning of 2023.

And that was all just kind of an outflow of a lot of the models and work that I was already doing. And I started sharing a lot of that and got to meet a bunch of cool people. And it's kind of been a

cool people. And it's kind of been a cool journey so far. So I've definitely enjoyed it.

>> Were you working on a trading floor at any point in your career? Were were you always interested in finance or was this uh something that you sort of were doing in your spare time and then became your full-time?

>> Um I haven't worked on like the like a you know like a like an investment bank desk or Goldman Sachs or anything like that. um a lot of the um I've been at a

that. um a lot of the um I've been at a couple different firms that had a focus on rates and a lot of trading, but my

main focus and has at least now is kind of just primarily uh managing the capital that I have and running the strategies that I have and then doing some work with family offices and some

stuff like that. But um I would say the majority of the at least the strategies that I run now and I think a lot of the the work that I do now has been things

that I've built individually because I just haven't found um a lot of a lot of the the strategies I think especially in the active space that I

run now are I think very difficult in the same way that they are to derive from um kind of the sell side in the way in the way they were in the past. I

think it's a a lot more challenging to get that um kind of experience in the same way that it was maybe 20 years ago.

But now it's just kind of that's my entire focus on just kind of on my own.

>> Yeah, for sure. I mean that makes that that makes a ton of sense. I am curious though like when you when you first got started in this um I mean like when when do you think you you first really started thinking about this? And the

reason that I'm asking you is because the follow-up question is how much do you think the world is the world has changed in in that time? I I think I know I might know the answer to that,

but you know, I'm kind of curious for your take. Yeah, you know, I think um

your take. Yeah, you know, I think um there's so much I think that

has changed in the ability that you have as an individual to I think trade and

run risk and develop edge. And I think you kind of need to know your lane a little bit and where exactly kind of you're sitting with things. But I think the the micro structure of the market

and a lot of other things in terms of the micro structure of the market and also on top of that the kind of changes that we have seen in the

macro regime um with global trade and global liquidity has changed a lot of those kind of aspects. I think all the money that has flown into the quant

space, it's created a lot the the correlations and the hedging pressure that we see through catalyst is very different than it was even three or four years ago. Um, so I think that it's it's

years ago. Um, so I think that it's it's it's had a pretty dramatic change. I

think and I you know my bet right now in I guess I would say life and besides kind of some investments that I've been making but just for all the trading

strategies that I run has really been focused on you know I think over the last 5 years there was this entire man man versus machine how do you man you know merge systematic with discretionary

and all that stuff and I think that's kind of been a a topic for a lot of people but I think The in my view there is

so much potential that is still not really unlocked in Agentic trading and machine learning or using Agentic models

and machine learning models uh to be able to map some of the changes uh that take place especially in real time and using them as a discretionary

trader. Um, I've shifted basically all

trader. Um, I've shifted basically all my capital. I I don't really have I mean

my capital. I I don't really have I mean maybe a little bit, but I don't really have any of my capital in systematic strategies anymore. Um, I just don't

strategies anymore. Um, I just don't find them as very interesting or competitive as they were maybe five, six years ago.

>> So, you think I mean that's a really interesting point to dig down on. think

this is this has become a market for discretionary traders more than systematic traders or are you saying that or are you saying that you as an individual can utilize a lot of these

tools now to create to create your own strategies that are more effective now than they than they would have been before? Um like can can we dive into

before? Um like can can we dive into that a little bit because I think that's really useful for the audience to understand especially because I'm we're talking mostly to people that are probably managing their own book in a discretionary fashion.

>> Yeah. You know, I think that I I I I'll be honest with you. I am not 100% sure what people are 100% doing in the discretionary space these days. Uh and

like how exactly they're making decisions. I'm kind of I would say I'm

decisions. I'm kind of I would say I'm kind of in a bubble now in my own little world. But I think that

world. But I think that uh on the I think what you need to do is two things. Number one is you need to

two things. Number one is you need to clearly delineate the type of returns you can extract on a systematic basis and extract on a discretionary basis and

why exactly those returns occur right and if you were broadly speaking at the end of the day if you were going to have systematic strategies those strategies are primarily going to be going to

function around price and it's going to be models that are all about how exactly are we modeling price and maybe have some fundamentals or quantum bundles and stuff like that in there. I would say

broadly speaking there's a lot less I think there those will get inputed into two things but so much of it is just around price right whether it's

multivariant trend following um outright cross-sectional momentum you have all the you know lead lag correlation guys like all these different systematic

funds uh you know are primarily based around price right and I think if you're a discretionary trader I think it's kind of a fool's errand to say like, well,

let me just use technicals or let me use um like technical analysis or stuff like that. I think those those can work if

that. I think those those can work if you have a different time horizon or risk tolerance in the market, right? So,

as long as you have a different time horizon in the market, like it'll be fine. But in terms of of developing real

fine. But in terms of of developing real edge, I think that it's going into what elements are

very challenging to quantify simply in price alone, right? And I think that's where you can get some type of discretionary insight in how exactly

you're doing that. And I think there's a lot of quantitative tools um if you know how to use them that you can you can merge into that. So that's a lot of the stuff that I've been working on over the

last year and um have been trying to like integrate more. But I think if you can kind of get a view into

uh something that is not that you can't derive a signal from from price alone.

And then if you can match that with how exactly your price strategy is working.

So for example, if you have a typically if you have a momentum or mean reversion strategy in the quantitative space, you're going to have a certain hit ratio, riskreward and frequency of that

trade, right? And so what I would try to

trade, right? And so what I would try to look at and one of the things that I try to do and this is maybe a little bit of a simplification is that I would say

what are those riskreward, hit ratio, frequency of those systematic insights and their statistical significance and how exactly can I have a discretionary

insight that could not simply be derived from price alone that would in the same way that you can merge together several lowsharp strategies ies how can I you

know combine that with some of these insights um so that the whole is greater than some of the parts and so I think that >> could you could you maybe pull in I think it's it's it's sometimes a little hard for people to wrap their heads

around um because I think I understand where you're going with this but like what type of nonprics insight are you putting into this because I think there's there's there's a there are a lot of people out there I think that

also get confused between the idea of a systematic strategy and a quantitative strategy So yeah, you can have you can have a systematic strategy that isn't necessarily

like very heavily quantitative and you can have a very you can have a quantitative strategy that isn't necessarily systematic. These are

necessarily systematic. These are actually two separate things. And I

think uh d div diving into that it's like what people often I think find the hardest part of trading to be is figuring out what are the inputs that

you put into a trade like what are you looking at right and obviously price and derivatives of price and indicators and levels and technical analysis is one area that I think people have covered

really well and there's so many different people out there that are ready to teach you about analyzing price but I think there the entire other section of what inputs from a

discretionary non-pric standpoint you put in that discussion isn't had enough so I'd be really curious to hear like what specifically you were looking at non-pric inputs that are going into your

trades.

>> Sure. So

I think on a broad basis you have if if you're going to say non-price inputs I think the easiest lowhanging fruit that you can you can use to get a little bit

of a signal everyone knows if you use fundamental data or economic data or things like that if you know how to just connect a time series uh you know a monthly time series and be able to

understand how that connects to different agents in the market who are going to be forced or take action based

on that data itself. Uh so I think that the economic data that we have the fundamental data those are two kind of like basic things that you can kind of

look at uh for that. I think that a lot of it is going to be around how exactly you know if if you have

these these periods where you have information that is getting released into markets right the quants would say you know information is always priced I don't

care about information it's irrelevant right um you know but if you have information in markets and it moves the price there is likely some type of

connection, right? And so if you can

connection, right? And so if you can take information in a manner where you can kind of quantify and say how does this move across the spectrum of uncertainty to certainty. So for

example, I know we have derivative contracts for these, but if you think about the actions of the Fed, the actions of the Fed out five years have

more uncertainty than they do two years out or two meetings out, right? Um or

what they might do on the balance sheet or things like that. And so I think that if you have some type of way to

understand those types of of things as well as how they net out on a on a backtested basis.

So I think if you're able to you know net out net net out economic flows whether that's balance of uh balance of payments or your economic you know

growth and inflation liquidity and things like that. I think especially on the liquidity side, I think it's probably the most misunderstood right now. But I think that the if you can

now. But I think that the if you can have a little bit of a view on those and how exactly constraints in the

distribution exist for momentum and mean reversion, you can begin to know how and why you bet with or against momentum at a certain point

in the cycle.

Yeah, I think that that that makes what's kind of interesting is that I mean you you talk a lot about liquidity.

Um I think actually recently you were just talking about liquidity and cross border flows as key drivers uh when it comes to to the equity valuations that we're seeing today. Is that is that right?

>> Yeah, I think that's part of it. I would

let me actually add one thing about the the previous note to kind of conceptualize it for people a little bit more. If I have like some type of

more. If I have like some type of dip that I'm trying to buy in an asset, right? If I say to myself when I think

right? If I say to myself when I think about that, I will try to back test that and say, okay, how many times do I need to run this trade to make money, right?

Do I need to run it five times, 10 times, 20 times? How much of a riskreward? How much how many times do I

riskreward? How much how many times do I need to run this trade to get positive expectancy? Whereas I think most people

expectancy? Whereas I think most people kind of put all their eggs in one basket for a single trade or for a single moment in time. Even if you are putting all your money into one trade, you know,

they're not incrementally getting on sides to get the cost basis up. So, I

think that if you can know if you know if you're if you're kind of making a bottom in stocks, let's say, and you're going to say, "Oh, we're going to chop four times or five times before we begin

to rally out of this dip," whatever the time frame is. If you can know with some type of signal about how many times or how long that might take place, that can

help you with your hit ratio of maybe the losing trades you have on that, right? And so I I I feel like that's

right? And so I I I feel like that's kind of where information comes exactly as opposed to um there's like some you know secret thing that this one level

everyone's going to buy and no one knows this or something like that. That's how

I think about that.

>> Yeah, I think I think that's that's a useful useful way of thinking about it.

I mean it's it it is it is kind of important I think to to sort of think about these outside especially for people that are coming

coming from crypto that tend to really really I think for a long time tended tended to just use technical analysis and then some of the more sophisticated

uh traders would take it ve very very slight step forward and start using uh start using flows from open interest and and derivatives data and start start using start using funding and then now

now even now I think that what we're seeing is a lot of the a lot of the very very very simple trading that you could

do three to four years ago in the in the crypto markets has has dissipated uh pretty pretty aggressively but what's interesting is at the same time that the

crypto markets have dissipated in terms of in terms of their opportunity I actually feel like the equity markets and general like global macro markets have opened in terms of their accessibility to to your average to your

average person solely because of the level of volatility in in the markets.

And this is something that I've been talking about on previous podcasts is that it almost seems it it almost seems like now is the golden age of the discretionary trader

because there are so many encumbered asset managers in this space that have to move substantial amounts of money that have to do it slowly. And candidly,

the world is moving far too fast for those people to to trade to trade effectively. I mean, I know plenty of

effectively. I mean, I know plenty of plenty of oil traders that got that had just had too large like they they couldn't effectively hedge hedge their positions on this on the on this on this

recent rally. They they were just too

recent rally. They they were just too large. And so I'm curious if you do you

large. And so I'm curious if you do you find that sentiment or statement to be true? Like do do you do you agree that

true? Like do do you do you agree that it's now a better market for discretionary traders? And if so, like

discretionary traders? And if so, like totally Yeah. Go ahead.

totally Yeah. Go ahead.

>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean I think I'd be I'd be curious to get get your thoughts on this as well, but I think that you have two things that have taken place. I think

one is to your point things are changing a lot faster but the players are a lot bigger because you know you have all of the asset management space has been

concentrated into top 10 hedge funds and you know uh passive vehicles right so I think that's like a lot of the space now

and these guys are moving a lot of money but I think that in terms of how fast things are chasing how slow people have to move I think that's why you're having implied ball blow out more than realize

V these days, right? Because now you have V shoot up so much more and realize V will kind of, you know, have wider

ranges on an intraday and intrae basis but not intra month, right? Like we

always come back to the mean on a monthly basis or even like on a weekly basis a lot of times. Um especially as you hit some of these catalysts that

carry outside significance. That is one of the things um by the way like on if you can know if a certain catalyst is

going to have a higher probability of moving the market than not. I think that that's something that has like some interesting edge because in the past you would have basically catalysts move

around the market or do a certain thing for like three times or two or three times maybe whether it was like VIX expiration set a lot of bottoms in 2021

um and 2020 like a lot of like and then it was like CPI and NFP events and other things like if you could have views about that you can actually know how to enter positions and get on size a lot

easier. Um, but in terms of like the

easier. Um, but in terms of like the changes, I think that the the if you know how to have a different time

preference, I I think like on the intraday basis, you have so many more moves because uh intraday moves and mean

reversion especially because the order book is not the same as it was in in the past. Like right now mean reversion is

past. Like right now mean reversion is used as a liquidity provision mechanism in a much larger way right like all the e the order books on the CME or Euroex

or whatever that might be um everyone's going to market no one's doing like limit orders or in the same way right like people are still running Bergs but like the the way that people are

executing is very different than than it was in the past which is if you know the difference between kind a fundamental move versus an execution liquidity move

that's going to have a high probability of mean reverting then you're able to have a clear signal to noise ratio. So,

like I think a lot of the things that I've done over the last year, especially that I've like adapted to is knowing when something is likely a mean

reversion event um and using that to put on a trade and get on sides and then holding that risk

on a larger view that I have. And um I think I've always tried to stack these time frames cuz I think everyone in the industry right now, no one wants to take

risk. Like no one everyone wants to, you

risk. Like no one everyone wants to, you know, as soon as they're up on their basis, uh or they they want to control their draw downs um even if they're up

on their cost basis, right? And so that no one wants to take volatility. And so

I think that that that is the biggest opportunity I think for a discretionary trader especially on a if you're a technical trader. Uh if you can just

technical trader. Uh if you can just take more volatility as you're on sides with your trade and maybe run a lower hit ratio with a

higher riskreward like the entire industry is set up to do the opposite, right? I'd be curious what how you think

right? I'd be curious what how you think about that. But I I think if especially

about that. But I I think if especially from a technical perspective, if that's all you're doing, that's like the best way to make money.

>> Yeah. No, I I I actually 100% agree with that. I think when you take a step back

that. I think when you take a step back and you try to think about what was what was making people money back in 22, 23, even 24 to some to some extent, and what's making money in the postTrump

presidency, it's just the g the game has radically shifted from the big fish to the small fish. And I can tell you this from the fact that I was working inside of one of the biggest fish on on Wall

Street. Um, you know, $50 billion asset

Street. Um, you know, $50 billion asset manage hedge fund, not asset manager, hedge fund. Uh, the these these were big

hedge fund. Uh, the these these were big guys. And the way that they were a lot

guys. And the way that they were a lot of the trades basically like every trade that made a ton of money in 22, 23, and 24, like the repeatable ones were all

ingesting exactly what you said. They

were all ingesting economic data. And

these guys not only have they not only have better systems to get that data faster than you do, they have better information. Like for example, the

information. Like for example, the current Fed chairman was a adviser that we would get on a call with once a month and talk to about what the Fed might do

given a range of economic data. And he

knows these guys. He gets lunch with Jerome Powell like once a month. And so

they're getting fed direct data. So what

would happen is they would actually basically set up a matrix based on all the information that they had. They'd

say if if if number comes in X then we short this much. If number comes in Y then we go long this much. If it comes in Z then we d then we if you know then

we double down um on current positions.

If it comes in A then we do this right and then immediately when the data would come out the trade would be put on.

You're not competing with that. The

difference is today uh the the market has because I think because people are a lot more skittish than they were because

volatility implied and you see it as you were saying because implied V is higher even if realized V isn't necessarily isn't necessarily following that indicates a lot of skittishness in the risk-taking markets. Um and the reason

risk-taking markets. Um and the reason that is is because there's a tremendous amount of headline risk. Basically,

every single month there's some something that comes out that moves the market and you got to be on sides for it because if you're a hedge fund, if you're if you are trading and you have a

down month, you have a bad month, guess what? Your subscriptions the next month

what? Your subscriptions the next month are going to say, "Actually, you know what? Let's just wait. Let's see how you

what? Let's just wait. Let's see how you do over the next three months, right?"

They they start they start getting cold feet. And so there's that I think

feet. And so there's that I think explains a lot of the pressure that you are articulating which is people don't want to take risk anymore. Uh it's

because you could take you could take a lot of risk 2 three years ago but it was actually safer right like these these trades were much safer because you weren't just waking up one day and

getting bombed out by headline. I mean,

today, uh, a headline comes out that Iran is potentially placing mines in the straight of Hormuz and oil jumps $10.

Well, guess what? The hedge funds are getting that headline the same time you are basically.

And so, you can actually put on that trade more easily than the hedge funds can because they've got billions of dollars to move. So that's that I think is is is what I'm seeing is this shift

from sort of a walled garden of information that's driving markets um to we are effectively in a more unpredictable world today which I think

is great for people like me and you but what I think would be very helpful for our listeners and I'm happy to share mine I but I share it on the podcast all the time so they might be might be bored of it is

figuring out an information diet in a world like this is really [ __ ] hard.

I think that's actually one of the hardest things to do is is where do you spend your time? Like what are you know hopefully you're spending some of your time listening to this podcast, but what what are you looking at? What are you reading every day? Like what is your

what is your day-to-day information diet look like? How and and how how have you

look like? How and and how how have you refined that because that I think is probably the most actionable thing that that that could be talked about.

>> So what how do you solve that problem for you? How have you kind of thought

for you? How have you kind of thought about differentiating yourself in your information diet?

>> Well, me specifically, um I mean I I curate a lot of information on Twitter. Uh but what I do

is I try to keep it I try to keep it to basically just breaking headlines uh on Twitter. I I try not to I try not to do

Twitter. I I try not to I try not to do too much um in terms of actual research on Twitter because I find it a little bit difficult. I use I actually

bit difficult. I use I actually subscribe to quite a few research services because I view them as important for me because the way that I

view my trading right now is I need to figure out what the mega trends are at any given moment and really just shove

my capital into it and stick with it.

But I also need to be informed enough about what's going on in the world so that when I see a headline, I'm able to instantly interpret what that headline what might mean for what assets are out

there. And that's actually kind of

there. And that's actually kind of difficult. So

difficult. So >> it's it's really about reading long for me specifically, it's about spending most of my day reading long form research and taking notes and then

monitoring the headlines as they come in through X. And that's that's how I do my

through X. And that's that's how I do my trading.

And then some sometimes long form is is on the you know is is is through a podcast um or through you know there there two research services that I that I sign up for. Actually 13D research is

phenomenal.

>> Um I liked 13D is really good. I I use them a lot.

>> And then uh obviously you gota you got to sign up for Capital Flows Research.

That wasn't He actually didn't pay me to say that. I just said it.

say that. I just said it.

>> I appreciate it, man. You know, it's it's um it it is it is fascinating to me because I think the there are these, you know, shocks that happen, right? The

oil moves, the geopolitical risk premium, all this stuff, right? But then

like the news cycle is going so much faster as well. And it's so easy to get like bogged down with noise. And going

back to one of the things that you said, like I I've tried to be really intentional. I I I'll be honest with

intentional. I I I'll be honest with you, I kind of find it hard to explain sometimes like the the tangibility of it. I'm maybe need to do a better job at

it. I'm maybe need to do a better job at that. But like I've tried to be

that. But like I've tried to be intentional to say like okay if if I'm trying to curate the different avenues of like how I'm thinking whether it's

information, these different things, how am I doing that? And then even even I'll say like on the on on the institutional side or anyone who's at a fund running

money when I talk to them and we're sharing color and we're going back and forth I think that there is it's very

hard to have the intellectual freedom to think and come up with high quality ideas beyond just taking the other side of a positioning move. when you are when

you're not when you're always forced to like not take a ton of risk and when you have all these carry trades blowing out like what in in different directions and I mean carry anywhere right like carry

because everyone is trying to like cor collect uh you know premium in this world right I just think that I if you are able to be kind of an individual

uh solo and be able to think or just like in a smaller group and not around all those people like I just think it's so valuable. I mean, I don't think I would

valuable. I mean, I don't think I would have had the, you know, ability intellectually to iterate and even iterate the speed I am right now, which I feel like has increased like 10x over

the last 6 months. Um it's like it's honestly surprised me even like I would never have that ability if I'm always going around listening to these guys on

some type of uh you know sellside research or these guys that are kind of going around with their you know meetings at all these different places

and hearing kind of them talk about the different you know things that they're doing on their desk or something like that that everyone else is talking about. you know, I just have never

about. you know, I just have never really been interested in like hearing what what those guys have to say. Um,

just because I think if you if you come up with a differentiated it it just becomes like everyone is fading each other.

>> I'll tell you I'll tell I'll tell you I'll tell you my secret with when it comes to reading cell size sellside research reports. It's you you read it

research reports. It's you you read it and you just think why are they wrong?

And that's actually your exercise.

>> Like you you you you pull these reports and you go through them and you're like I know they're wrong. I know that they're not that I know that this is incorrect, but it's up to me to figure out why it's incorrect. And can I prove that it's incorrect?

>> And that actually that actually I think is is is even >> a good exercise to do even with people that you really respect >> is whenever you're whenever you're confronted with information, it's like you take the other side. It's like,

okay, well, what what falsifies this thesis? What makes it what makes it

thesis? What makes it what makes it incorrect? Why why do I disagree with

incorrect? Why why do I disagree with it? And I think actually the way that my

it? And I think actually the way that my brain works is I really enjoy that aspect of it. So it actually makes it quite fun for me uh to to pick to pick pick things apart. But then sometimes

after you pick it apart, you go back and you say, "Actually, you know, there were some good points here." And what it does is really what you're trying to do in my personal opinion as a as a as a trader

and investor is you're supposed to train your brain to pick up patterns and recurring circumstances. And so even if

recurring circumstances. And so even if you don't make a move this time, you'll see something that rhymes with it in 6 months and then you'll be able to take

that take that trade again. And the way that it's funny because I actually just employed this method twice in the last three months with a war,

>> which is that I remembered exactly what happened when Iran retaliated against Israel uh in 2024 uh after after Israel after Israel ran

some ran some bombs uh over over over Iran. They they should they shot some

Iran. They they should they shot some missiles back and the markets dipped 2 to 3% and then they immediately rebounded. And

rebounded. And >> yeah, >> this is kind of the same thing that happened with the 12-day war. Like I

didn't view the 12-day war as as as as escalatory. And so I said, "Okay, I'm

escalatory. And so I said, "Okay, I'm going to fade this as well." And then we have this war. And you have to think to yourself, well, is it different? Is this

war truly going to escalate into a regional war?

can I figure out what's going to happen?

And basically through all my research, I came to the conclusion, no, this is actually not going to escalate in my personal opinion. And that while we

personal opinion. And that while we might see some short-term dislocations in the market, ultimately everything is still a buy here. In fact, it might be

an an even more incredible buy if we are able to take down Iran. Because what

might actually end up happening, and this is a thesis that I've been kicking around that I'm not, this is not a a steadfast 100% conviction that I'm in cuz I'm still working on it. But I do

think that there's an argument to be made that post Iran war, if we're able to implement regime change, we have so severely handicapped the apparatus that

China has built for themselves that the US has extended their hedgeimony. And

that's bad for the multipolar world trade. That's bad for the emerging

trade. That's bad for the emerging markets trade and that's actually bad for gold as well.

>> And so this is something that I've been I've been kicking around >> um that I haven't heard a lot of people talk about.

>> Yeah, that's interesting. I I think that uh there is a a large element where I think that

on on on your point about okay if if the US has this then you're just they're just increasing hedgeimony as opposed to multipolar world. I think that's

multipolar world. I think that's there there's all of these these factors about where is there a power mismatch or asset liability mismatch right and I

think that on the on especially on the trade side I think that in my view the the move in gold that's happened or emerging markets um that's happened like

so much of it has been connected to this this combination of dollar liquidity in the system and now yen liquidity in the

system and um as opposed to or or at the same time that global trade has accelerated uh and

it's not going to I don't think that it's going to have I think if the only way that we

have like some crash in gold and silver or some of these emerging markets in my view is that you're going to have to

have this shift not only I think in control but also in trade back to the US and I actually think that that's very

possible if you have uh this shift in prices. I think the entire like the AI

prices. I think the entire like the AI robotics thing, I don't think it had much validity a couple years ago when everyone was talking about it. But I

think the biggest risk to like global trade right now and it rebalancing is if you have a lot of these I mean one of the things that I've been doing research on and looking into is this entire kind

of like just in time uh or not just in time but like autonomous manufacturing and how much that can change the PPP

kind of between different countries and how that like eventually plays out. And

I think if that if that actually eventually happened, that's what would put even more pressure on China and then kind of speak to what you're saying where the US is pushing a putting a

bunch of pressure against them. And I

think that the reason why the AI quote unquote AI race is so significant and the compute is so significant is because if you can kind of get that that sets

the stage for them to push back in this arena of trade which could shift that that shifts how much dollars go into China and how they could prop up their real estate market and things like that.

And I think that they know that that's like three years away, four years away, right? And I think if that if that

right? And I think if that if that shifted then the US has all the cards, right?

>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean the US definitely has when when it comes to when it comes to investing in innovative companies, the the issue is that the US has it all, right? I mean if AI and robotics are

right? I mean if AI and robotics are going to are going to provide the vast majority of growth, which I mean AI has already been doing that in in the markets for the last 3 years. The

question then becomes among European countries and basically the rest of the world is where else do I put my money? like why

wouldn't I put it in the in the United States? And and the answer to that and

States? And and the answer to that and the reason that there's there's been money pulled out is because a lot of these countries now view the US as an unstable partner, you know, that oh, they they they're sable they they saber

rattled against us. They're they're

threatening us over Greenland. Uh we

have to build up our own independent reserves. Uh we can't just rely rely on

reserves. Uh we can't just rely rely on US treasuries. And in a world where they

US treasuries. And in a world where they could potentially cozy up to China or move away from the US and and and basically sit in this liinal zone in

between the US and China and play both sides and and exist happily, that makes a little bit more sense. But in a world where America is just so clearly the

leading country and that China has really no recourse to push back, which they haven't yet at all despite their multi-deade long plans of propping up

Venezuela and Iran currently falling.

They haven't really done anything. And

maybe they move on Taiwan and and the US lets them have it. And maybe that's the trade. Maybe that's what people are

trade. Maybe that's what people are talking about. But even if that happens,

talking about. But even if that happens, um I think the US reestablishes itself as is sort of the the the number one.

And obviously this is entirely dependent on how the Iran war plays out. Um so

it's not necessarily something that I'm currently betting a tremendous amount of money on, but it's something that if it looks like it resolves very clearly, I might have to is is really what I'm saying. And I'm probably that probably

saying. And I'm probably that probably just looks like diversifying out of my gold positions into US equities again, which has not been my position for quite

some time.

>> Right. So is your kind of mindset the best way to play that for now in multipolar kind of like these these changes

>> is is metals is mainly gold and silver.

It's it's mainly it's mainly gold because gold is the purest expression of this whereas copper isn't is actually going up for industrial purposes. Um

rare earth minerals I think continue to go up because the US doesn't trust China and needs to establish its own its own supply line. So specifically US-based

supply line. So specifically US-based rare earth minerals continue to do well.

But gold is specifically being stockpiled by central banks uh as a part of this divestment from US treasuries in my personal opinion. And so the if that

stops then I think the gold run and the silver run stops. But the rest of the metals I'm not necessarily super keen on fading.

>> So you're you're still are you still interested in any of the rare earth materials or uranium or copper? 100%

100% because >> what's kind of been your view on those?

>> Um I've been a I've been a uranium bull for quite some time just because I think that we are going to need to lean back into nuclear energy in order to fund uh to power these data centers. I mean

basically every single grid is tapped out. Um you can't build any more data

out. Um you can't build any more data centers in in in Washington state because there there's no more electricity. So yeah, you know, it's

electricity. So yeah, you know, it's it's really I think it's going to be time for uranium miners to do well. And

and and the and the key to remember with commodities, at least my personal opinion on, you know, we can we we we can we can debate this if there's a debate, it's that you you want to buy

the miners because I have no idea if massive uranium deposits are going to be found. And I don't really care to play

found. And I don't really care to play that. What I care to play is that these

that. What I care to play is that these uranium miners are going to get much larger contracts to produce more uranium and that and that with larger contracts,

regardless of the price of uranium, they're going to make money.

>> So, what what has kind of been your thought process and how that will play out with any of the geopolitics on on that? So if you have that industrial

that? So if you have that industrial demand or if you have that demand for the innovation to to have the energy demand, how have you kind of thought

through the any of the geopolitical or supply chain fracturing side for those benefiting or getting hurt or the ones that you pick or things like that?

>> Yeah, I mean the the way that the way that I think about it is that the US is is very focused on self-reliance right now. So I'm focused on US-based

now. So I'm focused on US-based companies that can produce these um and and secure and secure the stock piles.

Um, and same same in Europe, right? I

think Europe is going to need to be a lot more self-sufficient. And so

basically all any any companies that have that model rests on importing rare earth minerals or intensive uh or do intensive work in

China and import that into the US, I think are much less likely to be successful than the ones that are based in western allied countries. And so

that's really where because I do think that even if let's put it like this even if there is a return to America is the

now number one leading country both from a milit militaristic perspective from a geopolitical perspective there's still going to be fractures that are that grow

between the US the US and China the only question is uh will Europe continue to diversify heavily out of US investments

Will they continue to accumulate gold?

Uh will Africa, you know, will African countries side more with the US or side more with China? My bet is that if this is pulled off with Iran, then all of

those, you know, a will Asian countries side more with the US or with China, where will they park their money? Will

they park it in China or will they park it in the US? Post Iran, if Iran topples and it is clean, that money that has been pulled out of America to those countries is going to come rushing back.

But China will remain isolated. So re

specifically relative to China, I'm still negative. But you know, with with

still negative. But you know, with with regards to where Europe is going to go three months ago, I think that my answer would have been they're sitting in the middle. And post Iran, I think that

middle. And post Iran, I think that they're probably going to come back to the US.

Do you think there's the Iran um Iran thing escalates or begins to put more pressure on the yuan or the capital account from China or how do you kind of

view that point out?

>> Um that's actually a good question uh question to ask you because I feel like I feel like I've uh >> ask me um >> I want to hear what you have to say. Um,

>> what >> do you do or do you have an explicit view on that or >> I I don't I don't I don't actually have an explicit view on that uh particularly. Um, I think I think

particularly. Um, I think I think capital accounts are more more up your alley.

>> Uh yeah, I mean I don't I don't know the exact answer about >> when it when it will take place or things like that. I I I think it's very

interesting to see, you know, the net ex or China being net short energy >> and having to I mean, all things

considered, it's not it's a decent amount of money, but not like their entire current account to import a little bit higher prices and things like

that. You know, I I think that

that. You know, I I think that it it does in in my view the significance of it and then I think the

the the fact that it that the US is in a point where they're trying to I think Scott Bessent and especially I think Kevin Worsh is going to do this when he

comes in, but I think they recognize that they have two years left and to to to do everything, which by the way, so

wild that Trump is just like doing this entire thing into midterms and he's just >> it's insane. He just he just does not he he genuinely just does not care.

>> Yeah, I love it. I love it. Um, one of the things I would say is that I think that because

China has not been interested in trying to thread the needle with how they're exporting different goods um that they're they're trying to export.

They've moved up the value chain, but they haven't let the low value goods go to other countries so that they can other countries can industrialize greater, right? Like that's kind of the

greater, right? Like that's kind of the idea I think a lot of countries is they start out with low quality goods or low skill goods or whatever you want to call them and then they industrialize around

that by producing those and then they can move up the skill and value chain right and um and you kind of you kind of do that till you have automation that is

is efficient but I think the the the fact that they haven't has means they they export a lot more at you know pennies on the dollar in a sense And

I think that because it doesn't seem like they've been able to cut a deal with them or have a very clear one, I think that now they're going to try to

push the dollar down against the yuan and against all these other currencies because that's kind of the only way to do it. And I think that

do it. And I think that it's it's a it's a massive issue. I know

we just had the dollar rally and all this other stuff. um you know like couple couple you know couple percent but I think that this this period of

time that we're in especially post midterms is going to be very very consequential because if they decide to really push down the dollar and put in more cuts on

the forward curve that are priced it could I think on net that increases liquidity if you cut rates into positive growth but the entire question is how

much do foreigners, you know, at what point do foreigners have to begin to reduce their exposure because, you know, the the the weaker dollar is putting

pressure on them and their their equity exposure. And so, you know, I think

exposure. And so, you know, I think everyone has that's what the entire move of 2025 was and the tariff draw down, right? Dollar sells off and equity

right? Dollar sells off and equity selloff, which is kind of new to everyone, right? because the primary

everyone, right? because the primary reason was foreigner selling. And so I think that's I think if they if Trump really wants to put pressure on global

trade and rebalance it, which if if he did that, that would fix a lot of the problems in the United States. I think

if he wants to fix the entire populism thing, I mean, you can't fix technology concentrated wealth, but you can fix how exactly corporate profits versus compensation of employees are

distributed. So I think that if you

distributed. So I think that if you rebalance global trade that'll help a ton and I think if if uh or even if you import

and export similar amounts with different um pricing with the currencies that will that will help a lot. So I I actually think that if he did that there's a very

possible scenario that in the la latter half of this year I'm not betting on it yet. It's just a scenario I'm thinking

yet. It's just a scenario I'm thinking about is if if they try to really push down the dollar, it might cause equities to go up and, you know, pump 5% or 10% or something, but there's a very

significant downside scenario similar to 2025 where they where because no one foreigners aren't hedged in their their dollar risk. Um Brad Settzer has a great

dollar risk. Um Brad Settzer has a great article on this if you if you Google like RA Bradzer and then he talks about uh where we're at relative to the asset

liability mismatch in the financial crisis. We don't have a domestic asset

crisis. We don't have a domestic asset liability mismatch, but we have a positioning mismatch, which is why every major equity index in the world is like

at all-time high valuations, right? It's

not a it's not an AI thing, it's a global liquidity thing. So, I think that's the the tail event that's actually a lot bigger um that people have kind of assumed to be, well, we're

just at higher valuations because we're at higher valuations, right? And all the all the value investing bros who have been calling for a crash for five years just look stupid and they can't really it's the boy that called wolf, right? So

you can't really listen to >> poor value investors, man.

They they just they just never win.

>> Uh oh, man. I feel bad.

>> You know, they're they're talking about Nvidia having, you know, just a massive uh PE ratio. Then they then they just closed the gap and talking about all these AI companies being super super

overvalued and they just closed the gap.

I mean going to be tough for them. Good

luck.

>> I I I agree, man. You know, I've I've never I just think this goes back to like we we are moving down this this this path. This goes back to like the speed

path. This goes back to like the speed thing that you talked about and I think this connects to like the structure of the economy and how how individuals listening to this can like take a bet

cuz you know it used to be oh if you bet in venture capital like you make more money because you have all these companies and everyone was like oh let me go into venture capital and all this money flows into venture capital right

and now people are still raising money right there's always going to be that market it's be there's a lot more money in venture capital now and illquid investments and things like that but What you're seeing is like all of these

teams are getting smaller, right? And

now we're concentrating more and more leverage from code and media and capital and all this stuff in very small teams or single individuals, right? And now I

think that it's it's going to be more common to see, you know, single individuals be able to run, you know, massive things um and move around massive size just on their own, right?

Like I think we're still going to I think sometime next year we'll see someone run like a hund00 million

hyperlquid vault just by themselves.

And they'll make, you know, uh a fee on it. They'll probably make 10 or $20

it. They'll probably make 10 or $20 million a year if they're good at trading. And you'll have them just do

trading. And you'll have them just do that on their own just because they have like some social media stuff like that.

and then they'll they'll they'll do that with ill liquid assets or whatever else it might be and a bunch of different other stuff where it's like you could never do that in the past, right? Um so

I think there's going to be like a lot of different ways that those things are going to play out that people are still kind of like thinking like no that that can't really happen because you're going to have so much concentrated I think in

individuals.

>> Yeah, I I think that I mean I think that's just true across across basically every industry now. I mean, you're seeing you're you're seeing companies get spun up with one or one or two people now just because of what's

happening with AI. But I think I I kind of wanna I kind of want to ask you based on based on everything that you've you've said so far like heading heading

into 26 and you mentioned you mentioned Hyperlid like what what are what are your big trades this year or do do you have trades that you are super convicted

in for this year based on your model of what you think is going to happen over the next 12 months?

>> Yeah. So I would say that I I mean my whole goal is twofold. One is quantify the macro regime so I stay on the right side of it because if you know you have a recession or you have some type of

blowout it just sucks and you want to be on the right side of it and that's why I care about rates and FX. And then the other thing is just take massive macro

bets and you know massive bets within that. And I'm kind of you know I I'm

that. And I'm kind of you know I I'm agnostic to whatever those are. I think

um the two largest bets that I have and the two like most aggressive views that I have um are one hyperlquid strategies

the the stock ticker is per purr and I've been you know long that since like the low threes I've kind of laid it out for subscribers we're now kind of five and a half bucks

and the thesis behind that is very simple It's that um you know when I came into this year and actually you know it was end of last year. I'm always running the trades that I have I think there's a

lot of interesting things on a macro basis but it's very rare for me to say like let me put a massive amount of my portfolio into one stock. you know, it's just like it's something I I don't have

a problem doing, but it's very rare to find some opportunity where that is the like such a clear bet that I want to be

just kind of so so aggressively long um in my portfolio. And so, you know, coming into this year, that was my view.

That's what I laid out for subscribers on the Substack. I kind of talked about it. And I think that what happened the

it. And I think that what happened the reason why I had so much conviction in the view is because the entire crypto industry I mean you could probably speak to this more than I can. The entire

crypto industry was really I think there was a lot of focus on innovation on the front end and then it really shifted from creating value to let's just get these tokens listed so we can dump our

bags or so we can have someone pump our bags. let's get them listed on Tradfi so

bags. let's get them listed on Tradfi so that we can, you know, have more money flow in and quote unquote institutional flows will buy and stuff like that, right?

And so that you know that happened and I think all of the the people that you got in the industry whether it was the media companies that were built or the Twitter accounts or whatever that got long and

they were aggressive and are on sides their entire [ __ ] the entire you know industry shifted to basically kind of becoming the establishment because it's basically oh you should buy Bitcoin um

if you don't you're like stupid and poor um why didn't you buy it 10 years ago like I did okay I can't help you right and everything has shifted a lot more to very I just think people who are just

kind of part of the establishment and what I think is a view that no one really thought about because no one's everyone in the industry has thought

about how do we get these coins listed not how do we create value hyperlid comes along and says how can we create something where we're not just trying to

get listed but they say how do we allow how or create financial products and perks on here that are so valuable and give you almost like is the level

leverage um with that anyone can get access to. How do you get that and how

access to. How do you get that and how do you get traditional products onto crypto as opposed to the other way around? How do we get crypto into trad?

around? How do we get crypto into trad?

And so, you know, when I when I saw that and then also saw um the entire setup for cash flow and leverage and the amount of money that was going to flow

onto Hyperlid, especially with the amount of leverage that exists. And I

think that as soon as Hyperlid gets added to the United States and you have some of these other exchanges do 247 trading, right, I mean the CME, Kraken,

whoever it is, and they allow 24/7 uh trading for some of these per basically ARB between the two and lower funding rates even more between it. and

it's going to allow more capital to flow into Hyperlquid. Um, and I think that

into Hyperlquid. Um, and I think that that has kind of been the view that I've had over the last couple of months and then I think it's going to persist this year. I did like a interview with the

year. I did like a interview with the CEO, talked to him, uh, or excuse me of of the Treasury company. So, that's my view on Hyperlquid. Um, there's a lot of other points on there, but then there is

no way, so you know, Hyperlid is not added to the United States yet in a regulatory framework. There is no way to

regulatory framework. There is no way to buy Hyperlquid in like a brokerage account, right? It got listed on

account, right? It got listed on Coinbase. Uh, you know, there is some

Coinbase. Uh, you know, there is some exposure through Robin Hood, but broadly speaking, like there is no way. Um, I

get it just got listed on the, you know, hyperl strategies per just got listed in the NASDAQ and it was a very clear buying pressure because of that. But I

think that there's no way to really get on size especially if you're an institution and you want to get long hyperlquid. Um there basically everyone

hyperlquid. Um there basically everyone because of the regulatory uh limitations they it it would be very challenging to even buy it right now. Um

basically anyone who is operating a regulatory framework from a hedge fund or something like that it's very challenging for them to get exposure up right now. So, um,

right now. So, um, PER has been the way to get exposure because they are the largest treasury.

And the thing that I love about it more is that everyone got burned on treasuries last year because they weren't really providing any value besides just levering up Bitcoin, right?

Everyone's like, "Oh, Bitcoin treasuries are a scam now." Because everyone got burned on them. And now I think most people have kind of thought about hyperlquid strategies the stock and the

treasury company the same way even though this is like buying you know it's like front running the Bitcoin ETF which is very different than saying let me start a treasury company

post the ETF right so that's kind of been my view that's I would say one of the largest bets that I have right now is PER and then the other one is um

Oracle I did a kind of report on it because I think that in the entire AI space, Oracle is the only company uh

that is basically levering up really aggressively and pulling all negative returns into the present and pushing all future returns into the or all

exponential returns into the future. And

so they've leveraged their entire balance sheet, their entire stock, their entire income statement, all their capex, every single part of a company that you could leverage to take a bet.

Larry Ellison has taken a bet. And as a result, he's pulled all those negative returns into the present cause like a 50 or 60% draw down on the stock. And now

in my view, we're in the process of making a bottom. You know, we have earnings out um that that are out now and the stock is up a little bit. Looks

like not that significant yet. Well, I

mean, it looks it looks like there was a nice pop after hours.

>> Yeah. So, I think that my view is that Larry Ellison, you know, he's 82 and he's one of the the, you know, just absolute savages who actually takes

risks and he's not like all these other tech bros who don't even know like what they're doing. It just is is like

they're doing. It just is is like ridiculous to me these days. So, I think Larry Ellison is compressing the entire balance sheet of the company and the stock and everything and he's trying to

get the stock and his net worth. I mean,

I think he's trying to get the stock to like 800 bucks and he owns 40% of the company. So, like there is no float in a

company. So, like there is no float in a sense, right? Like there's the float is

sense, right? Like there's the float is so small because all they've done is share buybacks and he owns 40% of it.

So, he was he was richer than Elon M depends on how you calculate this stuff, right? He was richer than Elon Musk back

right? He was richer than Elon Musk back in September of last year when the stock gapped up so much. And I think that he's taken a swing for the fences and he's he

might I mean depending on how the whole SpaceX um and XAI thing go um which I think Elon will eventually go you know win but how that goes I think you know

Larry Ellison is taking a swing. So yeah

that's those are the two highest conviction bets that I have. Um,

Oracle's nice because you can actually buy calls on it. Um, so those are kind of the two biggest bets that I have and then in the interim I'm just trying to play defense and, you know, run rate trades or other things that I can, you

know, try to hedge out some of those the risks that I have.

>> Well, you you you heard it here first, guys. If you if you buy PER and Oracle,

guys. If you if you buy PER and Oracle, you can retire a billionaire at the end of this year. Capital C capital flows has said it and so therefore, um, dude, this was this was an awesome

awesome podcast. to really appreciate

awesome podcast. to really appreciate you coming out giving us all of your all of your insights and uh I I know this is going to be an enjoyable one for our audience. So, we really appreciate it.

audience. So, we really appreciate it.

>> Totally, man. I'm glad we were able to to chat and I appreciate you having me on.

>> Yeah, this was great. All right, take care.

Nothing said on the ThousandX podcast is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is forformational purposes only and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of

Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the

Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.