Former UK Treasury Minister Jim O’Neill on his expectations for global markets in 2026
By CNBC Television
Summary
## Key takeaways - **Multi-year non-US stocks outperformance ahead**: It could be the start of a multi-year outperformance of US stocks by much of the rest of the world. [01:05], [01:28] - **Parallels to 2000s global shifts**: Some of the circumstances going on around the world are even though they're so complex, there are some parallels with the noughties, which is the last time that happened. [01:18], [01:35] - **Germany's fiscal changes fuel Europe rally**: One of the things that's fueled this outperformance this year is, of course, because of Germany's big fiscal framework changes. [01:39], [01:54] - **Ukraine war end boosts European equities**: If [end to the Ukraine Russian war] happened alone, it would probably be very good for European equities. [01:50], [02:12] - **China consumer stimulus propels strength**: Still lots of focus, quite rightly, on whether China's going to do something more to stimulate its consumer. And if that happened, that would definitely propel further strength of China. [02:01], [02:22] - **Trump's C5 revamps G7 like BRICS**: President Trump [has a notion of a C5, which would be a new country grouping of the US, Japan, and three of the BRICS, all excluding Brazil], which was exactly what I came up with the BRICS thing nearly 25 years ago, which was for a revamped G-7 with those five. [02:36], [03:13]
Topics Covered
- Non-US Assets Start Multi-Year Outperformance
- Germany's Fiscal Shift Fuels Europe Rally
- China Consumer Stimulus Propels Strength
- Trump Revives BRICS-Like C5 Alliance
Full Transcript
ITSELF GEARS FOR A LITTLE BIT OF AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY NEXT YEAR. I MEAN, HOTEL STOCKS
YEAR. I MEAN, HOTEL STOCKS BREAKING OUT AND ALL THE REST OF IT.
>> YEAH.
>> LET'S BRING IN FORMER UK TREASURY SECRETARY JIM O'NEILL.
HE IS CHAIR AT NORTHERN GRITSTONE. JIM, IT'S GREAT TO
GRITSTONE. JIM, IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON. ALSO A GREAT TIME TO KIND OF ASSESS WHAT WE SAW THIS YEAR, WHICH WAS PLENTY. IF
YOU GO BACK, YOU KNOW, 8 OR 9 MONTHS AND IT WAS ALL THE TALK WAS, YOU KNOW, WITH THE TARIFF PANIC, IT WAS GOING TO BE END OF U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM FLOWS
OF U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM FLOWS
AWAY FROM DOLLAR ASSETS. MAYBE
THAT DIDN'T CONTINUE. BUT YOU
DID SEE OUTPERFORMANCE BY NON-U.S. EQUITY INDEXES. AND
NON-U.S. EQUITY INDEXES. AND
ALSO JUST ALL KINDS OF NON-DOLLAR ASSETS. IS THAT THE
NON-DOLLAR ASSETS. IS THAT THE START OF A NEW TREND? IS THAT
JUST A KIND OF A TEMPORARY REPRICING? HOW ARE YOU VIEWING
REPRICING? HOW ARE YOU VIEWING THINGS?
>> WELL, MY ONLY STANCE IS, I DON'T KNOW. I'VE BEEN WAITING
DON'T KNOW. I'VE BEEN WAITING TO COME ON FOR A WHILE, AND I HAVE TO SAY, I WOULDN'T MIND HAVING A BIT OF MONEY WITH CITADEL MYSELF LISTENING TO THOSE PERFORMANCE FIGURES THAT EVEN THIS YEAR'S IS GOOD ENOUGH
TO GET YOUR MONEY DOUBLED EVERY DECADE. SO IT'S NOT BAD GIVEN
DECADE. SO IT'S NOT BAD GIVEN THE THINGS THAT ARE OUT THERE.
SO. BUT I THINK IT COULD BE THE START OF A MULTI-YEAR OUTPERFORMANCE OF US STOCKS BY MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORLD, AND PARTLY BECAUSE SOME OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES GOING ON AROUND
THE WORLD ARE EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE SO COMPLEX, THERE ARE SOME PARALLELS WITH THE NOUGHTIES, WHICH IS THE LAST TIME THAT HAPPENED. STARTING
PLACE HAVE OBVIOUSLY RELATIVE VALUATIONS, BUT YOU GUYS KNOW BETTER THAN ME FROM ALL THE EXPERTS YOU HAVE ON ON YOUR OWN MINDS THAT, YOU KNOW, THE MARKETS ARE ALL ABOUT MARGINAL
CHANGES, WHAT'S PRICED IN AND WHAT'S EXPECTED. AND WHEN YOU
WHAT'S EXPECTED. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT ALL THE ISSUES OUT THERE, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S FUELED THIS OUTPERFORMANCE THIS YEAR IS, OF COURSE, BECAUSE OF GERMANY'S BIG FISCAL FRAMEWORK
CHANGES. AND NOW, AS WE TURN
CHANGES. AND NOW, AS WE TURN THE YEAR, ALL THE FOCUS ON THE END TO POSSIBLY THE UKRAINE RUSSIAN WAR. AND IF THAT
RUSSIAN WAR. AND IF THAT HAPPENED ALONE, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE VERY GOOD FOR EUROPEAN EQUITIES. STILL LOTS
EUROPEAN EQUITIES. STILL LOTS OF FOCUS, QUITE RIGHTLY, ON WHETHER CHINA'S GOING TO DO SOMETHING MORE TO STIMULATE ITS CONSUMER. AND IF THAT HAPPENED,
CONSUMER. AND IF THAT HAPPENED, THAT WOULD DEFINITELY PROPEL FURTHER STRENGTH OF CHINA. AND
THEN ONE OF THE INTRIGUING THINGS LURKING IN THE BACKGROUND, LINKED TO YOUR REMARKABLY ACTIVE AND NEVER
STOPPING IDEAS. PRESIDENT TRUMP,
STOPPING IDEAS. PRESIDENT TRUMP, IS THIS SORT OF THING BURIED IN AND AROUND THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY ABOUT SOME KIND OF NOTION OF A C5, WHICH
WOULD BE A NEW COUNTRY GROUPING OF THE US, JAPAN, AND THREE OF THE BRICS, ALL EXCLUDING BRAZIL.
AND FUNNILY ENOUGH, AS SORT OF I FIND IT SO EASY TO OFTEN DISAGREE WITH DONALD TRUMP'S MIND ABOUT SO MUCH. IN ESSENCE,
HE'S IF THAT'S FOR REAL, HE'S SUGGESTING SOMETHING, WHICH WAS EXACTLY WHAT I WHY I CAME UP WITH THE BRICS THING NEARLY 25 YEARS AGO, WHICH WAS FOR A REVAMPED G-7 WITH THOSE FIVE
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