From IRA to OBBBA: Navigating US Energy Policy with Keith Martin (Norton Rose Fullbright)

Every time the US changes president, the

rules around clean energy finance

change, too. One administration steps on

the gas, the next one slams the brakes.

Under Biden, the Inflation Reduction

Act, or IRA, turned tax credits into the

main engine of the energy transition.

Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of

incentives for wind farms, solar parks

energy storage systems, and more. Under

Trump, the conversation has flipped with

the one big beautiful bill act or OBBBA.

The Trump administration is trying to

roll back some of the Biden era

policies. For the people actually

building this stuff, developers, owners

financeers, it's a bit like being

halfway through construction on a

skyscraper and then being told

"Actually, you've got to finish this by

next summer or you will lose your

permit." That's what the one big

beautiful bill act has done for many

renewable projects in the US. It hasn't

wiped out the incentives from the Biden

era inflation reduction act. What it has

actually done is shortening runways and

also raising the bar for compliance. And

with so much uncertainty, it's harder

and harder to build confidence in your

business case. And yet somehow the deals

keep getting done. And that's partly

thanks to people like Keith Martin.

Keith runs the US project finance

practice of Northern Rose Fulbright, one

of the biggest law firms in the world.

He has been the steady hand behind

hundred of billions of dollars of

projects in renewable energy and energy

storage over the last few decades. If

you have ever wondered who translate a

300page long tax bill into the clause

that decides whether solar farm gets

built or not, that's people like Keith.

He sits where policy meets money

turning government rules and incentives

into language that investors can

actually trust. So today on

Transmission, Keith Martin, the lawyer

who has quietly shaped more clean energy

projects than almost anyone else in

America, helps us unpack how Washington

policy has had an impact on real world

projects. And before we dive in, a quick

plug. The transmission team, including

myself, will be at Raiders Energy Live

2025 in Houston this December, recording

new episodes and soaking up all of the

insights from some of the industry's

former doers and thinkers. If you're

also attending, drop us a line. Anyway

that's enough of me. Let's hear from

Keith Martin.

Keith, thank you so much for joining me

today. It's great to have you here.

Thank you for having me, Alex.

>> And, before, we, dive, in,, uh,, could, you

please introduce yourself and tell us a

bit about Norton Rose Fulbright's work

in the energy space?

>> I'm, Keith, Martin., I'm, in, the, Washington

office of Norton Rose Fulbright. Norton

Rose is a old British law firm. Goes

back to 1794. It has 12 offices in the

US, six in Canada. It's in 31 countries.

I head the project finance group in the

United States. I've headed that group

for more than 25 years.

The group came from a New York firm

called Chadbborne, Chadbornne Park. We

merged with Nordon Rose in 2017. There

are 138 lawyers in the group. We see a

lot of the market. Uh most of what we do

in the US is renewables. About 85% of

the work of the group the last four

years, each of the last four years was

renewables and 60% at each of the 12

years before that. Uh we did 288 billion

in transactions. in the last five years

more than 600 significant deals.

>> So, you, have, a, lot, of, coverage, and

exposure to the renewables and storage

space in the US. I can imagine.

>> Yes.

>> You, have, lived, through, the, transition

from the Biden era inflation reduction

act to the recently passed one big

beautiful act for people just catching

up uh with the latest announcements. How

would you describe what's really changed

under the new bill for wind solar and

storage projects specifically?

>> Well,, two, things., Let, me, start, from, the

law firm perspective. The last two years

have been like a treadmill turned up to

warp speed to switch mot metaphors. The

inflation reduction act provided a very

strong tailwind for the renewable sector

and lawyers, bankers, everybody working

in this sector has been working flat

out. Most of us thought once Trump took

office things would slow down a bit for

renewables. in in fact the the pace has

doubled and instead of a a strong

tailwind there's now almost a hurricane

force headwind as a consequence people

have to work that much harder I agree

and this you are seeing keeping for the

short term also midterm long-term what

is the difference

>> I, think, that, this, will, remain, a, very

busy industry

most of the large renewable energy

developers

started construction of pipelines of

projects by the end of last year that

insulates them from the roll back that

occurred in federal tax credits for

these projects in the OOT tripba the one

big beautiful bill act. So they're

working they're just head down executing

business plans. They have a four-year

pipeline of projects that will take them

past the current Trump administration.

The reason I think that even for others

uh who will start to feel the loss of

tax credits

that things will remain busy is that we

have an electricity shortage in the

United States. It's only getting worse.

electricity prices, wholesale prices

increased 41% in the first seven months

of this year in PJM, which is the

regional grid that serves the

Mid-Atlantic states all the way out west

to Illinois.

>> Retail, electricity, prices, have, been

increasing at double the rate of

inflation. In locations where there are

concentrations of data centers, the

electricity prices on average are

increasing 267%

in the last year. So this is a sign of

increasing shortages of electricity. The

government will need every source it

can. It will need storage. It will need

wind and solar to try to make up the

gap.

>> What, do, you, think, are, the, main, drivers

behind these price increases? Are we

talking about the lack of future tax

credits, the future demand, the current

demand? What are the main drivers from

your point of view?

>> Two, things., Demand., It's, coming, from

data centers. data centers right now are

about 4% of US demand but the US

government is projecting that by 2028

will be somewhere between uh 8 and 12%.

And then the second thing is our crowded

electricity grid. It's like a congested

interstate highway. So it's difficult to

get the electricity even if we have it

to the places where people need it.

>> Okay., Yeah,, we, are, seeing, the, same., But

just to give a step back because we're

going very fast in the final results and

impacts of of the latest changes in in

the electricity prices. But what have

been the main changes for developers uh

after the OBBA the one big beautiful

bill act was passed in terms of

timelines in in tax credits as well as

start of construction requirements or

the recently announced part of of the

same announcement for entity of concern

rules. Well, the one big beautiful bill

act

rolled back or moved in very distant

phase out dates for federal tax credits.

Federal tax credits pay anywhere from 30

to 70% of the cost of renewable energy

projects.

They were not expected to start phasing

out until sometime in the mid 2040s

according to projections before that

bill passed. So now those deadlines are

upon us shortly. And then second, it

made it impossible to claim tax credits

on projects to start construction this

year or in the future that have too much

Chinese equipment or rely on Chinese

intellectual property rights. The

deadlines, there are four deadlines that

the industry has been racing against.

One was to try to start construction by

September one. the uh Treasury

Department under pressure from President

Trump made it tougher for wind and solar

projects to be considered under

construction to lock in entitlement tax

credits. Those rules became tougher for

solar and wind, but nobody else starting

after September 1 this year. Second

deadline is the end of this year for all

projects, not just solar and wind, all

renewables, including batteries, to

start construction to be exempted from

the limits on Chinese equipment under

the fiak rules, FEOC, foreign entity of

concern.

The third deadline is July 4 next year

which is a deadline for solar and wind

projects to be under construction to

have four years to finish and claim tax

credits. If they don't get under

construction by July 4 next year, they

must finish by the end of 2027.

And then the last deadline is the end of

2033

for everything other than solar and wind

to start construction and lock in

entitlement to full tax credits.

>> And, we, have, seen, uh, new, guidance, coming

out of the department of treasury

talking specifically about the start of

construction new requirements but we are

still waiting for that guidance to come

out for the foreign entity of concern

rules. Do you have any light on when we

can expect those uh guidance to arrive

to to the public and how it will look

like at the end?

>> The, fiak, guidance, will, take, the, form, of

proposed regulations and those are not

expected until the spring next year. The

Treasury has suggested it will issue

what the lawyers call subregulatory

guidance. That is a notice perhaps a

list of frequently asked questions and

answers. The Treasury had been saying

that will be out by year end but the

government shutdown uh could affect the

timing of that. Uh Ken Keys the uh top

tax person at the Treasury uh said

yesterday he they are calling back 45

lawyers who are working on guidance and

label them essential so that there's no

slowdown. However, uh the government is

focused on guidance in the near term

that affects individuals like tip taxes

on tip income, overtime pay, the Trump I

don't know what you call them, Trump

accounts where the federal government

wants to give $1,000 to each newborn

baby to invest in an account. They're

trying to get guidance out on that first

before they turn to things of interest

to companies.

>> Okay,, I, see., And, all, of, this, noise,, this

uncertainty surrounding developers in

the energy space, what does it translate

to? What are you seeing about how teams

of developers are adapting on the

ground? Because you have been involved

in so many projects throughout the last

years. What have been the main changes

and the real world implications on

ground?

>> Well,, it, raises, questions, about, what, and

2028 will look like the last two years

of the Trump term. Yet there is no

scenario where gas, natural gas and coal

fill in the need for power. First of

all, if you order a gas turbine today

for a combined cycle plant, you will not

get it before 2030. That's two years

beyond the Trump term.

So the effects we're seeing in the

market are a increased pace of activity

this year.

Uh we are overwhelmed as are other law

firms with companies trying to sign

contracts with construction contractors

and equipment suppliers to start

construction of projects.

We are also working on more financing

simultaneously than I think we have ever

worked on. I've been at this for more

than 40 years. I've never seen so many

simultaneous deals and it in the past

people used to send a term sheet and

want it back a week from now. Now they

want it back the same day. There's a

there's a a mania about it. We're seeing

signs of consolidation.

The smaller developers are having

trouble raising the capital they need to

hold their positions in line to connect

to the grid. They're called

interconnection queue positions.

They also face penalties under uh power

contracts if they don't come online on

time. So, we're seeing consolidation of

people without capital. Our M&A lawyers

are busier this year than they have been

any time in the last two years. We're

seeing bankruptcies. Uh there have been

three notable bankruptcies in the US

renewable sector. Senova, Powen, and

Mosaic. all three in June. There are

rumors that others are likely to follow

this fall. This is again due to

constraints on capital. We are not

seeing cost of capital increase. It's

been pretty level. Uh not much changed

this year. So I think those are the main

effects.

>> I, see., And, it, might, be, a, little, bit

counterintuitive. I would say people

would have expected for developers to

slow down their development, but we are

seeing the opposite as you mentioned.

And you said that you're seeing as many

simultaneous deals as you have ever seen

in your career. Do these deals focus on

specific regions in the US or in

specific technologies?

>> Uh, batteries, are, there, the, I, saw, some

numbers this morning on new capacity

additions for batteries. They're

astounding.

Most deals we are seeing though are

solar. Wind has been more challenged

just because of the obstacles that the

Trump administration is placing in in

front of wind projects. So there's an

awful lot of solar this year. There

there is an awful lot of battery

activity. The batteries though face a

challenge because they rely on Chinese

technology

and so they will run a foul of the fiak

restrictions very quickly. We're going

to start to see that happening next year

on wind. We are seeing a lot of

repowerings of existing wind farms where

people try to uh rebuild the projects in

order to to renew the 10 years of tax

credits on the electricity output that

are offered to wind farms before they go

away.

That's that's where most of the activity

is. Uh in terms of regional

there hasn't been much change as far as

we can see in where most of it is. Texas

is still

attracting a lot uh mainly because there

isn't much regulation down there. Not

many obstacles to build. Uh PJM clearly

needs electricity.

California, Iowa, you know, the the the

normal hotspots remain. Though

>> the, fact, that, you, pointed, out, to, battery

projects suffering the most from FEC

rules leads to the next question for

battery developers which is how can you

ensure that your procure that your

supplier complies with the future rules.

How can you make sure that you are on

the safe side rather than on the gray

area when looking at the future guidance

that is coming out. One other thing

before I forget on batteries, they're

also since so much of the equipment in

battery projects is imported, they're

also facing these unpredictable tariffs

which are wreaking havoc. How do you

protect yourself as a battery developer?

Two ways. One is avoid any rights to use

of intellectual property in contracts

with suppliers.

If you sign or modify such a right on or

after July 4 this year, uh the contract

is automatically considered to give the

supplier effective control over your

project and you will not be able to

claim tax credits.

So that's number one. Number two, in the

uh tariff provisions

uh you'll just you'll have to address

tariffs. The way the market is doing it

is all known tariffs are included in the

equipment price.

Any tariffs that are imposed that in the

future are usually split in some ratio

5050 2080 something like that up to a

cap after which the customer can just

walk away without having to pay a

penalty.

>> That, is, very, interesting., I, also, read, in

some of your latest articles uh

regarding the the latest guidance

the possibility of some of these rules

being retroactive for a short amount of

time, maybe the last year when they were

drafting them. What problems does this

cause in developers nowadays? What have

you been seeing in developers reacting

to this potential outlook?

>> When, you, say, some, of, these, rules, being

retracted, are you referring to fiak

tariffs? Uh

>> start, construction.

Okay. I don't think the starter

construction changes have been a great

problem because

the Treasury managed to find a middle

ground. Trump wanted it to take a

tougher position on when wind and solar

projects are under construction, but it

ended up threading a needle trying to uh

satisfy conservative members of the

House who don't want to see any solar or

wind projects and more uh renewables

focused senators who were appalled at

the uh suggestions that wind and solar

would be cancelled.

So they they found a middle ground and

both sides seemed happy with it which

was astounding.

So that's that was construction start

on fiak.

The main problem with fiak well I I

expect Treasury will find a way to make

fiak work.

There was a lot of fear among renewables

advocates when the fiak proposals were

moving through Congress that they were

so

complicated that they were like a maze

out of which no one would emerge alive.

And I think the treasury I think the law

firms like ours as we have worked more

with the language are getting more and

more comfortable with it. But there are

unanswered questions and I think the

Treasury will try to make it work

and the evidence of that is the fact

that it it found a way to make the

construction start revisions work.

>> Quick, break., If, you, listen, to, this, show,

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newsletter. Enjoy the conversation.

Going back to uh some of the previous

topics that we covered, you talked about

a lot of deals being closed right now.

How are these large deals being

structured from a financing point of

view? Uh what different types of

contract structures are you seeing and

how have they changed in the past

decade, especially with a recently

passed bill?

>> Well,, there's, been, a, lot, of, change, in

the last decade, but uh let me just

start with this year. Most renewable

projects are financed in something

called the tax equity market because the

government pays so much of the cost

through tax credits that the developers

cannot use. So they find a way to barter

the tax credits to banks and insurance

companies. They can use them in exchange

for cash.

So that that market is healthy. It has

been setting records. Uh it's about a$20

billion a year market. The inflation

reduction act authorized another tool

which is called just tax credit sales.

That market has also been uh healthy and

the tax credits where companies choose

to sell them instead of doing

complicated tax equity deals are getting

generally 91 92 up to 94 or 95 cents per

dollar of tax credit.

And there are lots of transactions. We

ourselves have done 10.7 billion in tax

credit sales in the last 27 months. So

that's about a quarter to 31% of the

market depending on the year. Uh that

new tool, the ability to sell tax

credits has opened up another structure

two other structures. First the the

typical tax equity transaction is a

partnership.

But now these are being structured as

hybrid partnerships where a bank or

insurance company forms a partnership

with the developer. The two of them own

the project. The tax benefits are

allocated largely to the the so-called

tax equity investor, but now these

partnerships are leaving the

depreciation with the tax equity

investor, but they're selling the tax

credits to another company for cash.

That's called a hybrid partnership flip

deal. And then there are preferred

equity structures which have appeared in

the last year or so. There are about a

dozen companies offering this where a

company plans to sell tax credits

but before doing so it sells the project

into a partnership with a cash investor

and then that partnership sells the tax

credits. And the reason this is done is

to allow the tax credits to be

calculated on the fair market value of

the project at the end of construction

rather than the bare cost. Uh we're also

seeing on the debt side banks are making

bridge loans against future tax credit

sale proceeds.

They're both uncovered and covered

bridge loans. Covered bridge loans are a

loan for 95 to 98% of the expected tax

credit sale proceeds. uh in a case where

you know who the buyer is, you've

already locked that in. Uncovered are

about 70 to 75% of the projected sale

proceeds, assuming 90 cents on the

dollar,

and those are where you don't know yet

who will buy. So, that's opened up a new

line of business. We're seeing banks

also do uh construction and development

revolvers.

They're called borrowing based

facilities where they will make a loan

to a developer that it can draw down

but it draws down the amount it can draw

is a function of how large uh how the

value of its assets its borrowing base

and then we're seeing pre-NTTP loans in

the past the lenders have been unwilling

to lend before construction starts

they'll take construction risk but not

development risk but because of the

number of lenders in the market. There

are, at least, 80, um, competing, with, each

other. They have been taking more risk

called they'll take some development

risk called pre-NTTP before notice to

proceed with construction. And then

finally, the private equity funds have

been uh lending. They're called private

credit lenders. They've been competing

with the banks. The banks are

complaining that the capital uh they

need to hold back tier one capital to

provide a buffer in case they have bad

loans is holding them back and the the

private credit lenders are not

constrained by that. They're getting a a

favorable hearing from the Trump

administration which uh looks like it's

about to relax the tier one capital

requirements perhaps by about 14%. All

of the different deals and structures

are very interesting. And one more point

that we've been listening a lot is that

everyone loved the simplicity of selling

tax credits under the inflation

reduction act. But now post OBBA, what's

happening in the in the transfers

market? Is it still thriving? Is it

getting more complicated to do those

transfers? What is your perspective? And

what have you been seeing?

>> It, is, still, thriving., There's, been, no

change in volume. Uh there were two

deadlines we just passed. September 15

for partnerships to sell tax credits

from last year and October 15 for

corporations to sell from last year. So

2024 credits and there was a lot of

activity ahead of those deadlines.

Uh what we're seeing is that the market

will buy any tax credit that has

insurance behind it. So there was also

the uh inflation reduction act helped

the tax insurance industry. These

insurers, there, are, at least, 17, or, 18, of

them who will write insurance on the tax

benefits. Lately though in the last few

weeks we've been hearing from tax

insurers that they're having a harder

time filling out the excess layers. When

you buy tax insurance, you buy from a

primary insurer and then it pulls in

others to join along. Those are called

the excess layers. For some reason, the

break brokers are reporting it's harder

to fill out those. And we've uh been

hearing from some developers that they

just can't find insurance. Uh but that's

a very new development. Say in the last

two weeks, uh people are watching the US

claims court for a decision that's

expected in November, perhaps December

at the latest in a case called Ulta Wend

Alta Wend.

That case may have something to say

about the amount of the tax credits. Uh

where tax credits are claimed on the

fair market value. It's called a basis

step up from cost. May have something to

say there. The insurers may be pulling

back a little bit to wait to hear uh to

see what the court says.

>> And, you, mentioned, something, uh, that

surprised me. Tax credit insurance uh

companies. What exactly is that? because

I guess that many people in our audience

won't know about them yet as well. What

is exactly a tax credit insurance

company?

>> These, are, insurance, companies, uh, that

AON uh is an example. Um various Lloyd

syndicates. There are at least 17 of

them that that have been writing tax for

a long time. When I first started, I I

started on Capitol Hill in the in the US

Senate as a tax staffer. But when I

moved to private law practice, the first

thing I did, all I did for the first 18

months was representing Lloyd syndicates

writing insurance on tax benefits. At

that time, it was the airlines who had

been given a one-year window by Congress

to sell tax benefits they could not use

on their airline fleets. And so the

Lloyd syndicates were writing insurance

on those tax benefits to the the buyers

of them. Uh we've had it a long time.

It's picked up in the last five, six

seven years. The brokers have been at

all the renewable energy conferences

educating the market. But uh in the last

year or two since tax credit sales uh

became possible again uh many

transactions require tax insurance to

close.

>> Understood., Thank, you, for, explaining, the

concept of a tax credit insurer. And

then picking up another point that you

mentioned before about different states

and senators talking about the new act.

I wanted to get your perspective on how

those states and regional market

operators re have responded to the new

federal rules. Are they helping smooth

things out or are are they adding more

layers for the pelibers to navigate?

>> They're, not, adding, more, obstacles., They

are during the George W. Bush

administration when the uh Republican

administration pulled back from

renewables, the Democratic le states

stepped up and provided incentives at

the state level. The most common one

were renewable portfolio standards that

we have in at least 29 states that

require utilities to supply a certain

percentage of electricity for

renewables.

This time uh the states have not

as a a group done anything like that but

they certainly aren't creating

obstacles.

What everybody is watching is agency

pylon

where the interior department for a

start said that it will not approve any

easements

uh uses of federal land for renewable

energy projects solar or wind. uh unless

the secretary of the interior personally

approves the it and so far he has not

been interested in advancing solar and

wind. There are other agencies have now

gotten into the act. The department of

agriculture has pulled back to uh

incentive programs for for solar. Uh the

department of transportation is imposing

uh larger setbacks for wind turbines

from highways and railroads. Uh there

have been fears that determinations of

no hazard by the Federal Aviation

Administration that wind towers need to

uh to be erected, no hazard to aviation

commercial aviation will be harder to

get. We have not seen any problems there

yet. Uh the Environmental Protection

Agency, the US Army Corps of Engineers

all of them are making it harder for

solar and wind to advance. The governor

of Nevada sent a letter to the interior

secretary. He's a The governor is a

Republican. He said, "I realize the

administration wants to promote fossil

fuels. We do not have them in Nevada.

What we have are wind and sunlight, and

there has to be some way for these

projects to get built. So there there

will be more and more friction from

Republicans who are worried about rising

electricity prices. At some point, lack

of electricity will place a break on

economic growth.

>> Mhm., I, think, it, was, today, that, I, read

and, you knew, about, the, governor, or

senator for Rhode Island also pushing

for wind, trying to get some federal

support again or trying to stop the

complete fight against wind. What

exactly happened? What is your view on

that?

>> Uh, his, name, is, Sheldon, White, House., He

is the ranking Democrat on the

environment and public works committee

and the uh Congress has been uh talking

for the last three years at least

probably longer about permitting reform.

There's a there are books out uh both

about the difference between China and

the US and also abundance theory um

Esther Klein who writes for the New York

Times about how the US is making it too

hard for people to build things. And so

there's a general sense that uh we need

to do something about permitting.

But what White House

and his counterpart on the energy

committee uh Martin Heinrich from New

Mexico uh have said is they're not

interested in permitting reform as long

as the administration doesn't follow the

law.

White House in particular was

complaining about administration's

revocation of permits for offshore wind

projects, some of which are far under

construction. There is a battle that's

interesting to watch right now about the

CV project, the central Virginia

offshore wind project that Dominion

Energy has almost completed. It's over

2,000 megawws. the governor Glenn Yncan

and who's a Republican from Virginia and

um the local congresswoman have been

trying to prevent the Interior

Department from revoking the permit for

that project but there's a lot more

noise around it uh lately that the

Republican administration Trump

administration will pull back that

permit these revocations of permits for

Empire win for revolution

have felt a little like ransom notes

The administration wants something in

return. Uh that's they got something in

return for Empire off New York to get it

going again. But Doug Bergen, the

interior secretary, says they're not

looking for any ransom. They just don't

like offshore wind, period. So that

that's the battleground. I don't think

on permitting reform, there's so much

ill will between the Democrats and

Republicans in Congress at the moment.

There's a general recognition something

needs to be done, but there's too much

ill will. I'm it's a little hard to see

how it goes forward although people have

not given up.

>> And, then, coming, back

to the overall uncertainty created by

the FEC rules and the start of

construction guidelines. We here at

Motor Energy focus mostly on on

batteries plus solar and then wind as

well. And from your perspective, are

there any key actionable takeaways or

insights that you would give to the

developers to confront the finish of of

the projects for the next three years?

>> Well,, here's, my, advice., Number, one, is

start construction for tax purposes if

you haven't already by the end of this

year to avoid part of the fiak

restrictions that limits the amount of

Chinese equipment that can be used. You

will not escape all of fiak, but at

least you escape that part. If you can't

start by then and your solar or wind

start by July 4 next year, so that you

have four years to finish. If you're a

battery, you have plenty of time until

end of 2033.

Uh that's part one. Part two, we have

been getting lots of requests from

manufacturers

of batteries and other products, solar

panels, cells, so on to do analyses for

them so they can assure their customers

they are not foreignities of concern.

That requires looking at their

shareholding, their debt, uh who can

appoint their officers and and board

members.

and we have been working through that

with them. That's where the activity is

right now. Construction start ahead of

these deadlines and and trying to assess

what entities or foreign entities of

concern and also scrubbing contracts

with Chinese counterparties

or counterparties you suspect have are

majority Chinese-owned but a lot of

people don't have enough visibility.

scrubbing them of provisions that give

the counterparties effective control

over some aspect of your project. If you

have such contracts that will also

prevent tax credits from being claimed.

That is very interesting as well. From a

general point of view, I would say

stepping back from developers but

overall developers, investors, lenders

what do you think are the biggest

opportunities and the biggest risks for

sponsors and investors trying to

navigate all of this in the upcoming

years?

>> Interesting, question., And, I, was, just

thinking this morning about what keeps

my group busy.

There are so many opportunities right

now. Number one is acquiring assets from

developers who don't have the capital.

Another is

uh we're we're extremely busy financing

LNG terminals as other countries uh

shift to gas partly under the pressure

of the Trump administration. uh we are

very busy with financings of data

centers. We are hearing from lots of uh

real estate developers who want to

prepare sites for data centers by by

developing their own power supplies.

It's so hard for data centers to find

electricity at the moment. Nobody with

electricity has trouble finding a buyer

for it. Uh this has been a huge change

in most of my career. I've been working

in an industry where people don't want

more of the product. They're happy with

just the the same amount every year. But

all, of a, sudden,, we're, seeing, rapid

growth. And that creates opportunities.

We're seeing people start to anticipate

a much greater demand for small modular

reactors, small nuclear reactors. We've

been working with a number of small

companies, some developers who are

anticipating that they'll switch from

solar batteries to this type of asset.

Those though aren't really expected to

appear in great numbers until sometime

between 2032 and 2035. Another thing

fuel cells are are making an end because

they can be deployed quickly. they can

use natural gas and therefore they can

be a source of electricity.

Another thing micro grids uh the

utilities many of them just don't have

the capacity to to provide electricity

to new factories or subdivision

developments or data centers that want

to build in their service territories.

There's an opportunity for others to

come in and be the the power supply, be

the local utility. Mhm. And we talked

about technologies

about geographies. Have you seen a

concentration in opportunities for

example data centers in PM or in Texas

or for other technologies in other

regions where investors and Londers

could be very interested in entering?

>> Well,, data, centers, tend, to, be

concentrated in certain parts of the

country., Virginia,, for example,, Northern

Virginia, uh Richmond is fighting back.

Uh Georgia has a lot of them. Uh

California certainly. We're we're

starting to see a turn though in that

the local committees are fighting back.

I noticed Josh Holly, who's a Republican

senator from Missouri conservative, is

complaining to Amaran, the big utility

that serves Missouri, that uh the lo the

local homeowners are are having to pay

the cost of new data centers. It's not

fair.

And I think you're starting to see push

back not only electricity hogging all

the electricity and pushing up rates for

everybody but also water which is in

scarce supply.

>> Okay., Thank, you., One, more, question, on

the personal sides. I honestly

personally admire you. You have been so

many years working in the energy

industry. You could be considered a

superhero of this energy transition.

What keeps you motivated after so many

years working in the in the space?

>> I, like, the, intellectual, challenge., If

this is a good field for anybody who is

interested in ideas

there is no shortage of things one could

learn about and master. And as soon as

you've mastered one, two, three, four

five of them, there are another five

that appear. So, uh, that that's that's

what keeps me going. I also like to

write. So it's it's a challenge to take

difficult technical subjects and explain

them to a CEO for example or a US

senator who's not interested in the

details but wants the main points.

>> That's, fascinating, on, my, side, as, well.

It's on the earlier side of my career

but still I'm very passionate about the

energy industry and looking forward to

working many more years in this space.

Uh now

>> you, have, quite, a, few, interview.

>> Yes., Before, we, wrap, up,, is, there

anything you're working on that you

would like to plug or highlight? This is

the moment.

>> We, are, working, on, so, many, things, that

I've been, you know, I think my group

we're working seven days a week this

this year. It's a pace I think it's hard

to keep up. I tell the younger lawyers

you've got to find a pace like a

long-distance runner that you can

maintain. Don't burn yourself out in a

bunch of wind sprints. Mhm. And to end

finally, what's a contrarian view you

hold about the US energy market right

now that most people might disagree

with? This is the question that we ask

always to all our guests. So open to

your perspective.

>> I, think, the, US, went, overboard, on, 100%

renewables, just pushing renewables to

the exclusion of everything else.

But at the same time, I don't think

renewables are are down and out. If you

look at a the latest data the inter

international energy agency released it

had shows two trend lines. The trend

line from 2005 through 2024 of new

capacity additions for renewables is a

steeply rising curve. The trend line for

fossil fuels is a slowly falling curve.

This has nothing to do with US

incentives, nothing to do with the Trump

administration. It's pure economics.

>> Well,, Keith,, thank, you., so, much, for

sharing such an honest perspective

throughout the whole podcast. It was a

pleasure to have you here with us and

I'm sure that our audience will get a

lot of insights from the conversation.

Thank you again for for joining us.

>> My, pleasure,, Alex.

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