Futures Fall and Oil Surges as Iran Strikes Enter Third Day | Bloomberg Brief 3/2/2026

>> COMBAT OPERATIONS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME IN FULL FORCE, AND THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ALL OF OUR OBJECTIVES ARE ACHIEVED.

VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY. GOOD MORNING.

I AM VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR "BLOOMBERG BRIEF."

FUTURES SLIDE, OIL AND GAS SPIKE AS A CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN RATTLES MARKETS. KUWAIT HAS A NUMBER OF U.S.

U.S. AND IRAN RATTLES MARKETS. KUWAIT HAS A NUMBER OF U.S.

FIGHTER JETS HAVE CRASHED. CREWS HAVE SURVIVED.

LET'S HAVE A LOOK AT THESE MARKETS.

WE ARE SEEING BRENT AND WTI RISE.

WE ARE OFF OUR HIGHS OF THE SESSION, OPENED ALMOST 13% HIGHER FOR BRENT CRUDE. WE CAME RIGHT BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 6% HIGHER. NOW WE ARE AT ABOUT 8% AGAIN.

FAIRLY ORDERLY, IF YOU CAN CALL AN 8% SPIKE ORDERLY.

BY NO MEANS ONE OF THE BIGGEST DAYS EVER FOR SPIKES IN THE OIL MARKET, BUT IT SEEMS TO BE THAT THE CONSENSUS IS DURATION MATTERS. THE LONGER THIS GOES ON, THE

MATTERS. THE LONGER THIS GOES ON, THE MORE IT WILL MATTER TO THESE MARKETS. WE HAVE MANY ANALYSTS SUGGESTING THE PRICE WILL MOVE HIGHER, SO YOU SEE SECURITY SAYS WE SHOULD SEE $90 A BARREL ON BRENT.

CITI SAYING EXPECT $80 TO $90 OVER THE COMING WEEK.

EUROPEAN GAS FUTURES UP ALMOST 20%.

THEY WERE AT 26% EARLIER ON. SO MUCH GAS GOES THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ -- IT IS PRACTICALLY CLOSED.

IRAN IS SUGGESTING IT DOES NOT WANT TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ COMPLETELY. AT THE SAME TIME, NOT VERY MANY

HORMUZ COMPLETELY. AT THE SAME TIME, NOT VERY MANY SHIPS, IF ANY, ARE GOING THROUGH.

THERE IS BASICALLY TAILGATING GOING ON.

THERE IS A BIG NUMBER OF CONTAINERS THAT HAVE NOT GONE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ YET.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT FUTURES. WE ARE DOWN.

S&P FUTURES REALLY ONLY DOWN ABOUT 1.1%. IT COULD BE WORSE.

WE HAVE CONTRACTORS, DEFENSE COMPANIES, DRONE COMPANIES, THE LIKES OF PALANTIR, AND ALL THOSE OIL COMPANIES MOVING HIGHER ON THE BACK OF THOSE CRUDE PRICES, AND DEFENSE COMPANIES IN GENERAL ACROSS EUROPE LOOKING TO OPEN HIGHER TODAY. THE 10 YEAR YIELD IS A HEAD

TODAY. THE 10 YEAR YIELD IS A HEAD SCRATCHER. WE OPENED AT 3.92 AND CHANGE,

SCRATCHER. WE OPENED AT 3.92 AND CHANGE, AND WE ARE ACTUALLY BACK UP AT 3.96 AND CHANGE.

THAT TRADE MAY BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OR IT MAY BE THAT EVERYONE IS BUYING THE U.S. DOLLAR.

THE DOLLAR IS HIGHER, AS IS GOAL COME UP MORE THAN 2% -- AS IS GOLD, UP MORE THAN 2%. CURRENCY ACTION, WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUE TO RISE.

IT IS STRONGER THAN ALMOST EVERY OTHER CURRENCY OUT THERE, EVEN THE YOUNG AND FRANK -- EVEN THE YEN AND FRANC.

LET'S GET TO INDIVIDUAL MOVERS. OVER TO OLIVER CROOK. OLIVER:

WE ARE WATCHING THIS IRANIAN WAR TRADE ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTORS IN EUROPE. THE DEFENSE SECTOR IS STRONG.

BAE SYSTEMS GETTING A STRONG BID.

I SPOKE TO HENSOLDT PEOPLE, AND THEY MAKE RADARS AND ALL THE THINGS ARE GO TO DRONES TO NAVIGATE -- THIS WILL BE A STRUCTURAL BID FOR THIS SECTOR. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW DO YOU SCALE UP? WE ALSO LOOK TO NORWAY.

SCALE UP? WE ALSO LOOK TO NORWAY.

IT IS ONE OF THE ONLY INDEXES IN EUROPE UP THIS MORNING, AND THAT IS IN LARGE PART BECAUSE THERE'S A LOT OF CONCERN OVER TO GET THAT OIL AND GAS.

EQUINOR UP 6%, IN ADDITION TO KONGSBERG.

AND THE LUXURY TRADE, ACCOR, LUXURY HOTEL CHAIN WITH A LOT OF OPERATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, DOWN 10% ON THE NEWS.

TUI WITH TRAVEL AND LUFTHANSA ARE DOWN.

ALL THE ACTION ACROSS EQUITY MARKET IS BEING DOMINATED BY THIS STORY THIS MORNING. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH CARE THAT IS OLIVER CROOK. COMING UP,, ANNA ROSENBERG OF

OLIVER CROOK. COMING UP,, ANNA ROSENBERG OF AMUNDI AND AMY WU SILVERMAN OF RBC. OUR TOP STORY, THE WAR WITH IRAN .

>> COMBAT OPERATIONS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME IN FULL FORCE, AND THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ALL OF OUR OBJECTIVES ARE ACHIEVED.

I CALL UPON ALL PATRIOTS WHO YOU'RE IN FOR FREEDOM TO SEIZE THIS MOMENT, BE BRAVE, BE BOLD, BE HEROIC, AND TAKE BACK YOUR COUNTRY. AMERICA IS WITH YOU. I MADE A PROMISE TO YOU, AND I

COUNTRY. AMERICA IS WITH YOU. I MADE A PROMISE TO YOU, AND I FULFILL THAT PROMISE. THE REST WILL BE UP TO YOU, AND WE WILL BE THERE TO HELP. VONNIE:

WE GO TO A TEAM COVERAGE NOW WITH BLOOMBERG'S JOUMANNA BERCETCHE, TYLER KENDALL, AND MORWENNA CONIAM.

GIVE US THE LATEST IN WHAT WE MAY EXPECT FROM A NEW SUPREME LEADER AND WHAT THE LEADER SITUATION IS RIGHT NOW.

JOUMANNA: WHAT HAS BECOME CLEAR OF THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND IS IRAN IS NOT LETTING UP IN TERMS OF RETALIATION. THEY LOST OF THE SUPREME

RETALIATION. THEY LOST OF THE SUPREME LEADER, CONFIRMED TO BE KILLED OVER THE WEEKEND, ALONGSIDE A KEY ADVISOR, THE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF OF THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD, AND RIGHT NOW, PROCEDURE IS KICKING INTO PLACE. THERE IS A TEMPORARY LEADERSHIP

PLACE. THERE IS A TEMPORARY LEADERSHIP COUNCIL. AT THE SAME TIME THIS GUARDIAN

COUNCIL. AT THE SAME TIME THIS GUARDIAN COUNCIL WILL BE MEETING, AND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, POSSIBLY MONTHS, AT POINTS A SUCCESSOR TO THE KHAMA NEI. THE BROADER POINT IS THEY HAVE

NEI. THE BROADER POINT IS THEY HAVE NOT SCALED DOWN THE INTENSITY OF THE ATTACKS, AND WHAT THEY HAVE DONE IS ACTUALLY BROUGHT IN THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THE CONFLICT. WE ARE DOING A TALLY OF ALL THE

CONFLICT. WE ARE DOING A TALLY OF ALL THE COUNTRIES INVOLVED IN THIS WAR -- IT IS 11, WITH A NEW FRONT OPENING UP IN LEBANON OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THINGS LETTING UP. THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER

LETTING UP. THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER HIMSELF SAID, IN THE COMING DAYS, THEY WILL BE INCREASING INTENSITY OF ATTACKS. THEY ARE NOT ONLY GOING AFTER KEY PERSONNEL BUT GOING AFTER MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE, KEY MISSILE LAUNCHER SITES AS WELL. PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ALSO SAYING THEY ARE NOT GOING TO STOP UNTIL THEIR OBJECTIVES HAVE

BEEN ACHIEVED, BUT ALSO CALLING ON THE IRANIAN PUBLIC TO TAKE TO THE STREETS AND TAKE MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS, SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT YET. AT THE SAME TIME, MORE BROADLY IN THE REGION, THERE IS THIS REAL FEAR THIS MAY SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL. YOU WOULD HAVE SEEN THE REPORTS

OF CONTROL. YOU WOULD HAVE SEEN THE REPORTS OF THE WEEKEND OF HOW MANY MISSILES AND DRONES WERE INTERCEPTED OVER THESE GULF STATES, THE UAE ALONE INTERDICTING HUNDREDS OF DRONES AND MISSILES, BUT SOME OF THE DEBRIS HAS MANAGED TO CAUSE DAMAGE.

YOU HAVE AIRPORTS SHUT DOWN IN THE REGION, THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE ESTIMATED TO BE STRANDED RIGHT NOW.

THIS MORNING, AND OF ESCALATION WITH IRAN, A DRONE INTERCEPTED ABOVE THE RAS TANURA REFINERY IN SAUDI ARABIA. THIS SHOWS THAT ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE COULD ALSO BE A TARGET AS WELL.

PEOPLE ARE ON HIGH ALERT ABOUT WHAT COULD HAPPEN. VONNIE:

THE BIGGEST REFINERY IN SAUDI ARABIA, RIGHT?

AND WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FIRE AT A KUWAITI POWER STATION AS WELL, SO INFRASTRUCTURE NOW IN TROUBLE.

THANKS, JOUMANNA BERCETCHE. LET'S GET TO TYLER KENDALL FOR US IN WASHINGTON, D.C. WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT NEXT FROM THE PRESIDENT?

HE PASSED THE BATON TO THE IRAN IAN PEOPLE, BUT DOES HE FEEL HE NEEDS TO SPEAK MORE TO THE U.S. PUBLIC ABOUT THIS? TYLER:

LATER TODAY ON THE PRESIDENT'S SCHEDULE, HE HAS A NUMBER OF EVENTS THAT ARE RIGHT NOW CLOSE TO THE PUBLIC BUT COULD OPEN UP AND HAVE A PRICE, IN, AND WE COULD EXPECT A FURTHER STATEMENT FROM THE PRESIDENT. LAST NIGHT, THE ONLY TIME WE HEARD FROM HIM WAS IN THOSE RECORDED VIDEO REMARKS, WHERE THE PRESIDENT SAID, ULTIMATELY, THIS IS GOING TO CONTINUE IN,

QUOTE, "FULL FORCE." HE ALSO TOLD THE NEW YORK TIMES IN A TELEPHONE INTERVIEW THE U.S. IS REPAIRED TO SUSTAIN THIS MILITARY OPERATION FOR FOUR TO FIVE WEEKS, IF NECESSARY.

HE ALSO COMMENTED ON THE DEATH OF THE THREE AMERICAN SERVICE MEMBERS WHO HAD BEEN KILLED BUT SAID MORE CASUALTIES ARE LIKELY AHEAD AS THIS MILITARY CAMPAIGN CONTINUES.

THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT QUESTIONS WE HAVE FOR THE TRUMP INCLUDING HOW THEY ARE MEASURING PROGRESS WHEN IT COMES TO ACHIEVING THE GOALS THE ADMINISTRATION HAS OUTLINED.

A GROUP OF SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS BRIEFED REPORTERS IN A CALL OVER THE WEEKEND AND SAID THE BULK OF THE OPERATION WAS ULTIMATELY STARTED BECAUSE THE U.S. WAS DISAPPOINTED WITH THE PROGRESS IN THE NUCLEAR TALKS.

U.S. WAS DISAPPOINTED WITH THE PROGRESS IN THE NUCLEAR TALKS.

BUT WE KNOW THIS HAS EXTENDED AS PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS CALLED ON THE IRANIAN PEOPLE TO OVERTAKE THEIR GOVERNMENT.

AS THIS CONTINUES, THERE ARE A FEW OTHER THINGS WE WILL KEEP OUR EYES OUT FOR WHEN IT COMES TO THE WHITE HOUSE'S RESPONSE, BUT AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS NO WORD FROM THE PRESIDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT HE WILL COMMENT TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC LATER TODAY. VONNIE: WE WILL BE WITH YOU AS SOON AS

TODAY. VONNIE: WE WILL BE WITH YOU AS SOON AS HE DOES. THAT IS TYLER KENDALL IN

HE DOES. THAT IS TYLER KENDALL IN WASHINGTON. LET'S GET TO MORWENNA CONIAM ON

WASHINGTON. LET'S GET TO MORWENNA CONIAM ON THE MARKET REACTION. MANY OF THESE ASSETS ARE TRADING AS YOU MAY EXPECT. MAYBE THE MOVES ARE NOT AS BIG AS THEY POTENTIALLY COULD BE, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, TREASURIES ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A DIFFERENT REACTION.

WHY ARE TREASURIES NOT MORBID? MORWENNA:

THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY IN TREASURIES IN TERMS OF PRICES BEING ALREADY ELEVATED.

YOU HAVE HAD YIELDS COMING DOWN. THAT IS SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN WITH SOVEREIGN DEBT ACROSS THE REGION. AND IN EUROPE AS WELL.

THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF THAT, AND THERE'S ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THESE HIGH OIL PRICES AT TWO INFLATION.

IT IS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT MATTER FOR THE U.S.

THERE IN EUROPE BECAUSE OF THEIR DIFFERENT OIL CAPACITY, BUT BECAUSE OF PEOPLE EXPECTING THE FED TO CUT INTEREST RATES THIS YEAR, JUST AS THEY ARE EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE CASE IN THE U.K., TRADERS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING THAT BACK SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS A SENSE THE MONETARY POLICY PROJECTION THAT HAS BEEN PRICED IN FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW IS MAYBE NOT GOING TO BE QUITE SO STRAIGHTFORWARD. VONNIE:

TALK TO US ABOUT THE REACTION AND CURRENCY MARKETS.

THE DOLLAR IS STRONGER VERSUS EVERY SINGLE CURRENCY, PARTICULARLY THE YEN AND THE SWISS FRANC. MORWENNA:

THE DOLLAR IS RISING. THAT IS SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN HAPPENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUITE A LOT OF THIS YEAR, WE HAVE SEEN THE DOLLAR NO LONGER BEING THAT SAFE HAVEN, BUT TODAY, IT HAS COME BACK TO THE FORE, INVESTORS PILING INTO THE DOLLAR PERHAPS AS A HERITAGE, PERHAPS SOME OF THAT MONEY IN TREASURIES MOVING ACROSS THERE. IT COULD BE GOOD FOR THE U.S.

ECONOMY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW ALL OF THIS PLAYS OUT, BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO RAPID AND THERE ARE SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES, BUT CERTAINLY INVESTORS ARE FLOCKING TO WHAT IS SEEN AS THOSE TRADITIONAL HAVEN ASSETS ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. VONNIE: AND SO MUCH HEADLINE RISK.

TODAY. VONNIE: AND SO MUCH HEADLINE RISK.

THANK YOU SO MUCH. THAT IS BLOOMBERG'S MORWENNA CONIAM. NOW TO OTHER TOP STORIES TRENDING ON THE TERMINAL.

CONIAM. NOW TO OTHER TOP STORIES TRENDING ON THE TERMINAL.

TRAVEL CHAOS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDDLE EAST AND BEYOND, CAUSING MAJOR DISRUPTIONS AS IN THE WORLD'S BIGGEST AIRPORTS.

EMIRATES, THE WORLD'S LARGEST INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE, HALTED ALL OPERATIONS TO AND FROM DUBAI UNTIL 3:00 P.M.

LOCAL TIME TUESDAY.

QATAR AIRWAYS SAID FLIGHTS TO AND FROM DOHA WERE SUSPENDED DUE TO THE CLOSURE OF QATARI AIRSPACE.

THOUSANDS OF OIL TANKERS IDLING IN THE PERSIAN GULF AFTER ATTACKS NEAR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ALL BUT CLOSED OFF THE WATERWAY.

AT LEAST 40 OF THESE LARGE CRUDE CARRIERS ARE CURRENTLY IDLING WITHIN THE GULF. MAJOR SHIPPING COMPANIES HAVE ALSO ADVISED VESSELS TO SHELTER IN PLACE.

SAUDI ARAMCO HALTED OPERATIONS AT SAUDI ARABIA'S LARGEST REFINERY, RAS TANURA, AFTER A DRONE STRIKE IN THE AREA.

THE PLANT WAS SHUT DOWN AS A PRECAUTION AS ARAMCO ASSESSES DAMAGE. THE REFINERY, ONE OF THE LARGEST IN SAUDI ARABIA, CAN

DAMAGE. THE REFINERY, ONE OF THE LARGEST IN SAUDI ARABIA, CAN PROCESS 550,000 BARRELS OF CRUDE PER DAY.

COMING UP, MORE ON THE WAR IN IRAN WITH AMUNDI INVESTMENT'S ANNA ROSENBERG. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

ANNA ROSENBERG. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

>> THAT'S ALWAYS BEEN THE RISK OF THIS KIND OF A CONFLICT, THAT WE KNOW HOW IT STARTS BUT YOU DO NOT REALLY KNOW HOW IT ENDS. THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SCENARIOS IN WHICH AN EVEN MORE

ENDS. THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SCENARIOS IN WHICH AN EVEN MORE HARDLINE REGIME TAKES HOLD IN IRAN, ONE THAT IS NOT WILLING TO OBSERVE THE LIMITS THE KHAMANEI ON THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

AS CLOSE AS THEY WERE LAST JUNE TO ACHIEVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, HE HAD NEVER GIVEN THE ORDER TO PRODUCE ONE.

MAYBE A DIFFERENT LEADERSHIP WOULD DECIDE, FOR THEIR OWN SURVIVAL, THEY MUST HAVE THAT DETERRENT. VONNIE:

STRIKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUE FOR A THIRD DAY.

WE LOOK AT THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS WITH ANNA ROSENBERG OF AMUNDI. THAT WAS A FORMER U.S.

AMBASSADOR TO ISRAEL SAYING WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.

IT COULD BE JUST AS BAD, AND THAT IS ONE OF THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. WHAT IS YOUR BEST CASE SCENARIO

OUTCOMES. WHAT IS YOUR BEST CASE SCENARIO OF WHETHER THE REGIME ACTUALLY INVOLVED OR WE GET A VENEZUELA-TYPE SCENARIO. ANNA: A VENEZUELA TYPE SCENARIO IS

VENEZUELA-TYPE SCENARIO. ANNA: A VENEZUELA TYPE SCENARIO IS NOT REALISTIC NOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AS LONG AS THE IRANIAN MISSILES CONTINUE TO HIT THE REGION.

THEN WE WILL LIKELY HAVE THE SECOND PHASE OF THIS REGIME CHANGE CONFLICT, IN THE SENSE WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO SEE AERIAL ATTACKS BY THE U.S. AND ISRAEL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY STOP. THEN WE ARE GOING TO SEE THE

STOP. THEN WE ARE GOING TO SEE THE U.S. AND OPPOSITION FIGURES CALLING

U.S. AND OPPOSITION FIGURES CALLING FOR THE PEOPLE TO TAKE THE STREETS.

THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE TO WATCH, BECAUSE THEN THE FIGHT COULD CHANGE AND MOVE ON TO THE STREET.

THIS IS WHEN WE WILL SEE THE -- IF THERE IS A REAL POSSIBILITY OF REGIME CHANGE. IF THERE IS A BIG PROTEST MOVEMENT, THERE COULD BE REAL REGIME CHANGE.

BUT IT COULD BE THE REGIME WINNING FIGHTS ON THE STREETS OR THE OPPOSITION WINNING THE FIGHT ON THE STREETS.

THE KEY POINTS TO WATCH IS IF THE PEOPLE GO OUT AND PROTEST, ARE WE GOING TO SEE DEFECTIONS FROM THE MILITARY FROM THE RESUME TO THE OPPOSITION OR NOT? VONNIE:

PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THE PERSON RUNNING THE RESPONSE IS THE PERSON RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CRACKDOWN ON PROTESTERS EARLIER THIS YEAR.

WILL PROTESTERS FEEL THEY CAN GET OUT ON THE STREETS?

MANY ARE ACTUALLY TRYING TO GET OUT OF TEHRAN AND OTHER CITIES.

ANNA: WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE LAST ROUND OF PROTESTS, WE HAD ONE OF THE EXTERNAL OPPOSITION FIGURES, REZA PAHLAVI,: PEOPLE TO TAKE TO THE STREETS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIM CALL AGAIN TO THE PEOPLE TO GO OUT INTO THE STREETS.

IF THERE WILL BE A RESPONSE, THEY WILL LIKELY GO AND DO THAT.

CLEARLY, WE WILL HAVE TO SEE THE SECURITY SITUATION IS UNTIL THEN. FIRST, AERIAL STRIKES NEED TO

THEN. FIRST, AERIAL STRIKES NEED TO CALM DOWN. VONNIE: HOW DOES IT CHANGE THE CATALYST

CALM DOWN. VONNIE: HOW DOES IT CHANGE THE CATALYST FOR THE U.S.? THE REGIME CHANGES BUT THERE'S A DIFFERENT SUPREME LEADER AND IRAN HAS TO BACK DOWN AND HOLD ONTO HIS EXISTENCE, AS A HOLD ON TO NOW, OR A REVOLUTION AND A WHOLE NEW REGIME? HOW WILL IT IMPACT THE U.S.,

EITHER WAY? ANNA:

FIRSTLY, WE SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR REAL REGIME CHANGE. THERE IS A TENDENCY TO BELIEVE THIS REGIME WILL COME OUT ON TOP, JUST BECAUSE IT HAS DONE SO OVER THE LAST COUPLE ROUNDS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE TRENDLINE LINE OF THIS REGIME, IT IS CLEAR AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WEAKENING. NOW WE HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH

WEAKENING. NOW WE HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH EXTERNAL SUPPORT THE REGIME WILL GET.

WE SEE HEZBOLLAH JOINING RIGHT NOW, BUT HEZBOLLAH WILL LIKELY BE DECIMATED TO BECAUSE THEY DO NOT HAVE MUCH CAPACITIES LEFT.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHAT THE HOUTHIS DO.

AND THEN THE QUESTION, WHAT DO THE U.S.

ONE, WHAT DOES IS REALLY WHAT, WHAT DO THE IRANIAN PEOPLE WANT?

THE U.S. WILL LIKELY BE HAPPY WITH THE REGIME THAT DOES NOT WANT TO DO NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT, THAT STOPS THE NUCLEAR MISSILE PROGRAM, THAT STOPS FUNDING PROXIES IN THE REGION. THE U.S. IS LIKELY GOING TO BE OK WITH

THE REGION. THE U.S. IS LIKELY GOING TO BE OK WITH HALFHEARTED REGIME CHANGE. ISRAEL IS NOT.

FOR ISRAEL, THIS IS GETTING RID OF A RESUME THAT IS IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED TO IT CLEAR THEY WILL LIKELY DO A LOT TO SUPPORT WHATEVER HAPPENS NEXT TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.

VONNIE: WE ARE SEEING AN IMMEDIATE REACTION IN THE MARKETS, OBVIOUSLY.

WE ARE SEEING MOST OF THE OBVIOUS MOVES.

HOW MUCH ARE INVESTORS AND SMART MONEY THINKING ABOUT LONGER-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT COULD BE A VERY PROTRACTED, MESSY BATTLE EVEN IF IRAN DOES NOT HAVE THE MILITARY FIREPOWER? THERE ARE OTHER WAYS IT CAN

MILITARY FIREPOWER? THERE ARE OTHER WAYS IT CAN ATTACK ENEMIES. ANNA: WE COULD SEE TERRORIST ATTACKS,

ATTACK ENEMIES. ANNA: WE COULD SEE TERRORIST ATTACKS, BUT WE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THEIR CAPABILITIES AS AN -- HAVE BEEN SEVERELY WEAKENED.

AS YET, WE ARE NOT IN A FULL-SCALE, MASSIVE WAR.

WE COULD GET THERE, IF THE GULF POWERS GET ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN THE PROXIES GET ACTIVELY INVOLVED. WE ARE NOT THERE YET.

WHAT THE MARKETS ARE DOING IS WATCHING HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE, AND WE ARE SEEING THE FOCUS ON SAFE HAVEN ASSETS, GOLD CLEARLY DOING WELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THEN HOW BAD WILL THIS GET? WILL THIS AFFECT MIGRATION FLOW, REGIONAL STABILITY, TURKEY, YOU'RE UP TO SOME DEGREE, OIL AS WELL? IF WE HAVE A PROTRACTED CIVIL WAR, IT WILL AFFECT OIL FOR QUITE SOME TIME. VONNIE:

CHINA WAS LOOKING FORWARD TO A VISIT FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP.

WE HAVE TO ASSUME THAT IS STILL GOING AHEAD.

IF CHINA IS BACK INTO A QUARTER AND HAS TO TAKE A SIDE, WILL THEY SIDE WITH IRAN? ANNA: NO. AT THIS POINT THEY ARE VOICING PUBLICLY THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH THIS APPROACH, BUT CHINA DOES NOT HAVE AN INTEREST IN GETTING INVOLVED WITH A REGIME ALREADY ON ITS LAST LEGS, IF YOU WILL. WE HAVE SEEN THE SAME WITH RUSSIA. RUSSIA DID NOT COME TO THE AID

RUSSIA. RUSSIA DID NOT COME TO THE AID OF SYRIA. IRAN COULD NOT HELP SYRIA AT

OF SYRIA. IRAN COULD NOT HELP SYRIA AT THAT POINT IN TIME. CHINA WILL TRY TO STAY OUT OF IT. FOR CHINA, THE MOST IMPORTANT

IT. FOR CHINA, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS ECONOMIC STABILITY. THEY NEED TO MAKE SURE THE ECONOMIC TRADE CONTINUES, THAT ITS EXPORTS CONTINUE.

THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO BE DRAWN IN WITH IRAN.

THERE IS A TAIL RISK THAT IF THIS ENDS UP IN A LONG, PROTRACTED WAR IN THE UES -- IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND CAPABILITIES ARE SEVERELY INCAPACITATED, THERE IS A CHANCE CHINA COULD LOOK AT TAIWAN AND SAY THIS IS OUR CHANCE TO GO THERE. VONNIE: ANNA ROSENBERG OF AMUNDI, THANK

YOU. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

YOU. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

VONNIE: THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BRIEF."

I'M VONNIE QUINN IN LONDON. MIDDLE EAST STRIKES DOMINATING FRONT PAGES TODAY. THE NEW YORK TIMES LEADING WITH ESCALATION IN THE WAR AS ISRAEL STRIKES HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON.

ALSO AN ACCOUNT OF FATAL MISTAKES MADE BY IRANIAN LEADERS WHICH LED TO THEIR DEATHS SATURDAY MORNING.

CNN LEADS WITH KUWAIT'S DEFENSE MINISTRY SAYING SEVERAL U.S.

AIRCRAFT HAVE CRASHED, WITH CREWS SURVIVING KB FINANCIAL TIMES REPORTING ON THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE STRIKES ON THE POPULATION, TEHRAN RESIDENTS EVACUATING EN MASSE, WITH MAJOR EXIT ROUTES CONVERTED TO ONE-WAY ROADS.

STAY WITH US. MORE NEXT ON BLOOMBERG. ♪

VONNIE: IT IS 5:30 A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY, 10:30 A.M.

IN LONDON. I AM VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." STRIKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST

"BLOOMBERG BRIEF." STRIKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUE FOR A THIRD DAY. FUTURES SLIDE.

OIL AND GAS SPIKE AS A CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S.

AND IRAN RATTLES MARKET. ISRAELI FORCES ANNOUNCE A FRESH ROUND OF STRIKES. KUWAIT SAYS IN A NUMBER OF U.S.

FIGHTER JETS HAVE CRASHED, THOUGH THE CREWS SURVIVED.

BRENT AND WTI SPIKING.

WE HAVE NOT TOPPED $80 A BARREL YET ON BRENT, BUT SECURITIES -- TD SECURITIES AS WE WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND $90 A BARREL AT SOME POINT.

CITI SAYING EXPECT $80 TO $90 A BARREL ON BRENT.

I WANT TO POINT TO GASOLINE, BECAUSE A SHOCKING AMOUNT OF THE WORLD'S LNG GOES THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

QATAR IS THE WORLD'S LARGEST LNG SUPPLIER AFTER THE UNITED STATES, AND WHEN IT EXPORTS, IT WANTS TO REACH CUSTOMERS IN ASIA AND EUROPE, AND THAT IS THE WAY IT EXPORTS ITS LNG.

GOLDMAN SACHS ESTIMATES, IF THIS WERE TO LAST FOR A MONTH, SPOT ASIAN LNG COULD RISE 30%.

DURATION MATTERS A LOT TO THESE MARKETS. LET'S LOOK AT FUTURES.

DOWN ABOUT 1%. THEY ARE OFF THEIR LOWS FOR THE S&P 500. THE 10 YEAR YIELD BACK UP TO

S&P 500. THE 10 YEAR YIELD BACK UP TO BASIS POINTS FROM WHERE WE OPENED THAT REPORT 92 AND CHANGE.

GOLD THE HAVEN CHANGE -- THE 10 YEAR YIELD BACK UP TWO BASIS FROM WHERE WE OPENED AT 3.92 AND CHANGE.

LET'S GET TO STOCKS TO WATCH. OVER TO OLIVER CROOK. OLIVER:

LET'S CONTINUE THE STORY YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT, ALL THE WAYS THE IRAN WAR WE HAD OF THE WEEKEND IS REVERBERATING ACROSS MARKETS. IN EUROPE, MARKETS ARE DOWN

MARKETS. IN EUROPE, MARKETS ARE DOWN ACROSS EQUITY MARKETS. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION, SPECIFICALLY IN THE DEFENSE SPACE.

BAE SYSTEMS UP 6%, REINMETALL UP 2%, HENSOLDT UP 5%. I SPOKE TO HENSOLDT, ASKING WHAT ARE FIRMS SAYING? BASICALLY THEY ARE SAYING THEY WILL BE A STRUCTURAL BID FOR AIR DEFENSE.

THEY MAKE RADARS AND ALL THE THINGS THAT GO INTO DRONES.

YOU CAN SEE THE STOCK UP 5%. IF WE GO TO THE NORWEGIAN TRADE, YOU CAN SEE IT IS ONLY ONE IN EUROPE UP THIS MORNING COME UP 2% AT THE DEBT BENCHMARK LEVEL.

THAT IS LARGELY BECAUSE, WITH NATURAL GAS PRICES GETTING SEVERE BID, NORWAY'S ONE OF THE ONLY MAJOR PRODUCERS IN EUROPE.

THEY FURNISH MOST OF THE NATURAL GAS THAT GOES TO THE REST OF THE EUROPEAN CONTINENT. EQUINOR UP 6%.

IF YOU, ACCOR, CHAINS WITHIN EUROPE.

THEY HAVE A HUGE OPERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST, LOSING ABOUT 9%. TUI TRAVEL AND LUFTHANSA ALSO

9%. TUI TRAVEL AND LUFTHANSA ALSO SINKING ON THE NEWS THAT TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AND DEMAND FOR ANY SORT OF THESE HOTELS WILL ALSO BE MASSIVELY REDUCED.

VONNIE: ABSOLUTELY. RAMIFICATIONS FAR AND WIDE.

BACK TO OUR TOP STORY, THE WAR WITH IRAN.

>> COMBAT OPERATIONS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME IN FULL FORCE, AND THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ALL OF OUR OBJECTIVES ARE ACHIEVED.

I CALL UPON ALL IRANIAN PATRIOTS WHO YEARN FOR FREEDOM TO SEIZE THIS MOMENT, TO BE BRAVE, BE BOLD, BE HEROIC, AND TAKE BACK YOUR COUNTRY. AMERICA IS WITH YOU.

I MADE A PROMISE TO YOU, AND I FULFILLED THAT PROMISE.

THE REST WILL BE UP TO YOU, BUT WE WILL BE THERE TO HELP.

VONNIE: JOINING US NOW FOR MORE FROM DUBAI IS BLOOMBERG'S JOUMANNA BERCETCHE.

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT NEXT? WE ARE INTO DAY THREE, AND THE STRIKES KEEP HAPPENING ACROSS MANY COUNTRIES IN THE GULF REGION. JOUMANNA:

REGION. JOUMANNA: AN EXTRAORDINARY SEQUENCE OF EVENTS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS YOU SAY, WE ARE ENTERING DAY THREE. THE OPERATIONS AT THE JOINT

THREE. THE OPERATIONS AT THE JOINT U.S.-ISRAELI OPERATIONS THAT TOOK PLACE SATURDAY MORNING.

U.S.-ISRAELI OPERATIONS THAT TOOK PLACE SATURDAY MORNING.

NOW WE UNDERSTAND, IN RETROSPECT, THEY WERE TARGETING THE SUPREME LEADER, ALONGSIDE A KEY LEADER AND OTHER KEY LEADERS IN THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD.

THEY HAVE TARGETED OVER 1000 DIFFERENT TARGETS AROUND IRAN.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS THINGS WILL LET UP.

PRESIDENT TRUMP HIMSELF SAYING THEY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CAMPAIGN, SO LONG AS THE OBJECTIVES ARE NOT ACHIEVED.

SIMILAR LANGUAGE COMING FROM THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER, SUGGESTING, IF ANYTHING, THE INTENSITY OF THE ATTACKS WILL INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. IN RETALIATION TO THAT, THE IRANIAN SIDE HAVE BEEN LOBBING MISSILES AND DRONES, INITIALLY DIRECTED AT U.S. ASSETS AND MILITARY BASES

DOTTED AROUND THE GULF REGION, AND ISRAEL AS WELL.

MOST OF THOSE MISSILES AND DRONES WERE INTERCEPTED.

SOME OF THEM WERE NOT, WHICH CAUSED DAMAGE AND DEATHS IN CERTAIN SITUATION. OTHERS, THE DEBRIS EXPLODED IN

CERTAIN SITUATION. OTHERS, THE DEBRIS EXPLODED IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL AREAS. YOU WOULD HAVE SEEN REPORTS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MANY OF THE KEY AIRPORTS IN THE REGION WERE ALSO TARGETED, WHICH MEANS ABOUT 300 THOUSAND PASSENGERS

HAVE BEEN LEFT STRANDED IN THE REGION.

ESSENTIALLY, AIRSPACE HAS BEEN CLOSED.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DISRUPTION TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE GULF STATES. ESCALATION HAS TAKEN A DIFFERENT LEVEL OF INTENSITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. I THINK MOST PEOPLE IN THE

COUPLE DAYS. I THINK MOST PEOPLE IN THE REGION ARE VERY NERVOUS ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT, BECAUSE BOTH SIDES DON'T SEEM TO BE LETTING UP ANYTIME SOON.

THE REAL CONCERN IS THAT THIS COULD SPIRAL INTO SOMETHING OUT OF CONTROL FOR THE REGION MORE BROADLY. VONNIE:

BRIEFLY, WE HAVE BEEN HEARING FROM THE SECURITY CHIEF IN IRAN, BUT YOU HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE WILL NOT BE SOMEONE ELSE IN CHARGE SOON, AND IF THIS MAY CHANGE. WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT IN TERMS

CHANGE. WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT IN TERMS OF A NEW SUPREME LEADER? JOUMANNA:

PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS CLEAR IN HIS REMARKS.

HE WARNED THE IRANIAN MILITARY, WARNED THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD TO PUT DOWN THEIR WEAPONS AND FACE IMMUNITY OR FACE, QUOTE, "AND DEATH -- "CERTAIN DEATH." THE CALCULUS IS THAT THE IRANIAN REGIME WILL FACE SO MANY BLOWS THAT THEY WILL EITHER COLLAPSE AMONGST THEMSELVES OR CAPITULATE TO U.S.

DEMANDS. THERE WAS A BIT OF REPORTING THAT CAME THROUGH OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND SUGGESTING A BE THE IRANIAN SIDE WILL BE OPEN TO NEGOTIATIONS CARE THAT HAS BEEN PUT DOWN NOW.

ALI LARIJANI IS THAT CHIEF OF THE SECURITY -- HE SAID THAT NEGOTIATIONS ARE NOT STARTING UP AGAIN.

THE IRANI AND --IRANIAN RESPONSE SO FAR HAS BEEN TO KEEP ABSORBING ATTACKS FROM THE U.S.

AND ISRAEL BUT AT THE SAME TIME FIRING BACK AT KEY U.S.

ASSETS IN THE REGION. THE RISK IS THEY SUSTAIN SO MUCH DAMAGE TO THESE GULF COUNTRIES THAT THERE IS A BROAD MOVE AGAINST THE REGIME ITSELF AND THAT, IF ANYTHING, IT EMBOLDENS THE U.S. -- THE JOINT U.S.-ISRAELI

OPERATIONS. VONNIE: THANK YOU FOR ALL THE CONTEXT.

THAT IS BLOOMBERG HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA CLOSED JOUMANNA BERCETCHE. JOINING US NOW IS AMY WU

JOUMANNA BERCETCHE. JOINING US NOW IS AMY WU SILVERMAN OF RBC CAPITAL MARKETS.

DIDN'T THINK WE WILL TALK UNDER THESE PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES, BUT IT IS A GOOD DATE TO TALK TO SOMEONE WHO KNOWS VOLATILITY AND HOW IT SHOULD PERFORM AND WHAT IS NORMAL AND ABNORMAL.

THE VIX AT 23 AT THE MOMENT. WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT IN TERMS OF REPRICING? AMY: I THINK EVERYTHING IS ON TERMS

OF REPRICING? AMY: I THINK EVERYTHING IS ON TERMS OF THE VOLATILITY LANDSCAPE FRIDAY SHOULD BE RENDERED MOOT.

IN GEOPOLITICAL SITUATIONS, THE OPTIONS MARKET TENDS TO BE HISTORICALLY BAD AT PRICING THEM.

THE REASON I SAY THAT IS IF YOU LOOK BACK TO THE LAST FEW YEARS OF GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS, IT IS PAID TO BE UNDER PRICING THEM.

YOU THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THE VIX CLIMBED UP BEFORE RUSSIA-UKRAINE, THEN WHAT HAPPENED.

PEOPLE NEED TO GET THEIR HATS ON AND THINK ABOUT HOW THIS CONFLICT COULD SPIKE CORRELATION, WHICH HAS BEEN LOW, AND THINK ABOUT WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE DISPERSION TRADE IN OUR MARKETS, WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN WINNING AND WORKING IN THE LAST FEW YEARS. VONNIE:

WHAT WOULD HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THE CORRELATION TRADE TO SPIKE?

WILL WE HAVE TO SEE THIS CONTINUE? WHAT ARE THE OUTCOMES?

AMY: GREAT QUESTION. FIRST OF ALL, CORRELATION IS ALREADY GOING TO SPIKE. WHEN THERE ARE GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS LIKE THIS THAT RISKS INFILTRATING INTO NOT JUST ONE COUNTRY BUT INTO MULTIPLE COUNTRIES THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST -- YOU ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT ACROSS THE WHOLE COMPLEX.

THE SECOND THING I WOULD SAY IS, GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEWS HAPPENED, I WAS ABOUT TO WRITE ANOTHER PIECE POINTING OUT THE SPREAD DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN AVERAGE SINGLE STOCK, IMPLIED VOLATILITY, AND INDEX VOLATILITY, HOW WIDE THAT GAP HAS GONE, BECAUSE MOST FOLKS ARE FOCUSING ON THE THEME OF AI, THE ZIGGING AND ZAGGING OF

WHO WILL GET THIS IN PLACE AND WHO WILL NOT.

BUT YOU COMBINE THIS WITH GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS AFFECTS EVERYONE IN ONE FELL SWOOP. THERE ARE THESE MASSIVE CORRELATION EVENTS THAT OCCUR -- IT IS DIFFICULT TO PRICE HOW THEY WILL OCCUR. THOSE ARE THINGS I COULD CLOSE THOSE SPREADS QUICKLY. WE WILL SEE HOW THE MARKET OPERATES IN THE WEEKS AND MONTHS TO COME.

IF IT IS SOMETHING SUSTAINED AND NOT RESOLVED, THAT WILL MAKE THE MARKET QUITE NERVOUS. VONNIE:

IF THE U.S., AT LEAST, STOP STRIKING TARGETS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BECAUSE THAT IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY, IT DOES NOT MEAN OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE TO STOP STRIKING EACH OTHER.

BUT IF THE U.S. PULLED BACK ON THE MILITARY FRONT, DOES THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE TO THESE MARKETS?

AMY: LET'S TAKE THE SCENARIO YOU MENTION, WHICH IS THE U.S.

STOP STRIKING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DOES THAT MEAN THE CONFLICT IS RESOLVED? I DO NOT THINK SO.

WHAT DOES IRAN DO NEXT? WHAT DOES IT IN TERMS OF THE STABILITY OF WHO THE NEW REGIME IS? WHO IS THE NEW REGIME?

EVEN IF THE ACTUAL FIGHTING SEIZES IN THE DAYS TO COME, WHICH CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR -- IN LIGHT ACTUAL FIGHTING CEASES IN THE DAYS TO COME, WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY, YOU STILL HAVE VOLATILITY REMAINING HIGH.

WE HAVE BEEN IN THIS SUB 20 REGION FOR A WHILE AS A RELATES TO THE VIX, BUT IT COULD PUSH YOU HIGHER WITH THE SUPPORT LEVEL WITH THE REGIME QUESTIONS UNSOLVED. VONNIE:

WHAT OF THE ENERGY COMPLEX? WE HAVE BEEN SEEING VOLATILITY THERE ANY WAY. I AM MUCH OF THAT WILL ALSO SPIKE. PARTICULARLY, NATURAL GAS WAS

SPIKE. PARTICULARLY, NATURAL GAS WAS UP 25% IN EUROPE THIS MORNING. AMY:

EVEN PRIOR TO THE CONVERSATION WE ARE HAVING, PRIOR TO THIS WEEKEND, THE ENERGY COMPLEX WAS QUITE EXPANDED.

NOW YOU ARE SEEING EXTREMES.

WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE BID TO CALL OPTIONS, THAT IS MASSIVELY INVERTED IN THE SUSPECTS YOU WOULD ANTICIPATE, GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE THESE POTENTIAL SUPPLY SHOCKS, GIVEN THE SITUATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

STRUCTURALLY, WE LIKE LOOKING AT A CALL SPREAD, WHICH IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE FACT YOU ARE GETTING THE EXTREME CALL SKEW. THOSE ARE THE TYPES OF

CALL SKEW. THOSE ARE THE TYPES OF STRUCTURES THAT GIVE YOU HIGH PAYOUTS.

YOU CAN THINK OF IT AS AN UPSIDE TRADE TO ENERGY BUT IS OBVIOUSLY A HEDGE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, GIVEN THE GREAT AMOUNT OF GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. VONNIE:

WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE, BUT THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALL YOUR THOUGHTS. IT SHOULD BE A BUSY DAY FOR YOU

THOUGHTS. IT SHOULD BE A BUSY DAY FOR YOU AS WELL. AMY WU SILVERMAN OF RBC CAPITAL

AS WELL. AMY WU SILVERMAN OF RBC CAPITAL MARKETS. NOW TO OTHER TOP STORIES

MARKETS. NOW TO OTHER TOP STORIES TRENDING ON THE TERMINAL. TRAVEL CHAOS EXTENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE EAST AND BEYOND CAUSING MAJOR DISRUPTIONS AT SOME OF THE WORLD'S BUSIEST AIRPORTS.

EMIRATES, THE WORLD'S LARGEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT -- AIRLINES, HALTED ALL OPERATIONS AT DUBAI AIRPORT AND WARNED OF DISRUPTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

QATAR AIRWAYS SAID FLIGHTS TO AND FROM DOHA WERE SUSPENDED DUE TO THE CLOSURE OF QATARI AIRSPACE.

A SUSPECTED DRONE STRIKES THE U.K.'S BASE IN CYPRUS.

THE INCIDENT CAME AFTER PRIME MINISTER KEIR STARMER GRANTED THE U.S. PERMISSION TO USE U.K. BASIS.

THE U.S. PERMISSION TO USE U.K. BASIS.

AT A MAJORITY OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST MARITIME INSURANCE MUTUALS SAID THEY WOULD WITHDRAW -- IT WOULD LIKELY -- COMING UP, U.S.

LAWMAKERS CONDEMNED PRESIDENT TRUMP OVER THESE IRAN STRIKES.

WE LOOK AT REACTION FROM CAPITOL HILL. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

♪ >> OF COURSE WE ARE AT WAR WITH IRAN. WE KILLED THEIR LEADER.

WE HAVE OVER 100 OF OUR FIGHTER JETS BOMBING THEM.

THE POINT OF THIS RESOLUTION IS TO SAY WE DO NOT WANT ANOTHER WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST, OR AT LEAST CONGRESS SHOULD OPINE ON THAT, SHOULD VOTE ON THAT. IF YOU ARE NOT VOTING FOR THIS WAR POWERS RESOLUTION, YOU HAVE LINDSEY GRAHAM'S VIEW, WHICH IS THE PRESIDENT GETS TO DECIDE WARS. VONNIE:

CONGRESS SEEMINGLY SPLIT OVER THE PRESIDENT'S MOVE TO STRIKE IRAN. BLOOMBERG'S TYLER KENDALL JOINS

IRAN. BLOOMBERG'S TYLER KENDALL JOINS US NOW FROM WASHINGTON. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE SEE THIS WAR POWERS VOTE? TYLER: WE EXPECT THIS PHOTO LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SENATE TUESDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY IN THE HOUSE. AT THIS POINT, IT IS LARGELY

THE HOUSE. AT THIS POINT, IT IS LARGELY CONSIDERED SYMBOLIC. IT IS SERIOUS TALK THE VOTE

CONSIDERED SYMBOLIC. IT IS SERIOUS TALK THE VOTE COULD PASS THE HOUSE. IT MAY PASS THE SENATE.

WE DID SEE SOME REPUBLICAN SENATORS DEFECT AND CROSS THE LINE WHEN IT CAME TO THE WAR POWERS RESOLUTION RELATED TO VENEZUELA. BY THE WHITE HOUSE LOBBY THOSE

VENEZUELA. BY THE WHITE HOUSE LOBBY THOSE REPUBLICAN SENATORS AND GOT THEM BACK ON BOARD.

ULTIMATELY, LET'S SAY THIS DOES PASS CONGRESS AND IT GOES TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DESK FOR A VET O.

WE CANNOT IMAGINE THERE WOULD BE A TWO THIRDS MAJORITY TO OVERRIDE THAT VETO.

INSTEAD, THIS BOAT IS INTENDED TO PRESSURE THE ADMINISTRATION TO PROVIDE INFORMATION TO CONGRESS.

WE ARE EXPECTING LAWMAKERS TO PUSH THIS WHITE HOUSE OR MORE BRIEFINGS, MORE INFORMATION, THOUGH IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING AT 4:00 P.M. EASTERN, THERE IS REPORTING THE GANG OF EIGHT LAWMAKERS WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FROM SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO.

THOSE INCLUDE COMMITTEES INCLUDING THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND INTELLIGENCE, AND ARMS COMMITTEES WILL BE BRIEFED.

VONNIE: PRESIDENT TRUMP -- WE HAVE HAD THE SPARSE COMMENTS FROM THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF, AS I FROM THE TRUTH SOCIAL VIDEOS. WHAT IS ON HIS AGENDA TODAY?

WILL THERE BE ANYTHING PUBLIC? TYLER:

THERE IS ONE PUBLIC EVENT, A MEDAL OF FREEDOM CEREMONY.

AT THIS POINT, IT IS UNCLEAR IF YOU WILL TAKE QUESTIONS FROM THE PRESS. EVERY OTHER EVENT IS CLOSED TO

THE PRESS. EVERY OTHER EVENT IS CLOSED TO THE PRESS AND THE PUBLIC. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY WILL NOT REOPEN UP. AS WE HAVE OFTEN SEEN AT THIS WHITE HOUSE, THEY START CLOSED, AND THEN THE PRESS IS INVITED IN. WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH

IN. WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY, THE PRESIDENT'S TRUTH SOCIAL FEEDS, AND OUR EYES TURNING TO CAPITOL HILL AS LAWMAKERS ARE RETURNING BACK TO WASHINGTON. THEY HAD BEEN OUT OVER THE

WASHINGTON. THEY HAD BEEN OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE HAVE BEEN CALLS FOR THEM

WEEKEND. THERE HAVE BEEN CALLS FOR THEM TO RETURN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, BUT THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN. I WILL PUT ONE MORE VOTE ON YOUR RADAR WE SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER THIS WEEK.

THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY IS CURRENTLY CLOSED.

WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A PARTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, AND WE ARE GOING TO HEAR A LOT MORE FROM REPUBLICANS AS THIS WEEK GOES ON THAT FUNDING IS NEEDED AS CONCERNS ABOUT DOMESTIC THREATS ARE HEIGHTENED AMID IRAN'S RETALIATION.

THAT IS ANOTHER KEY COMPONENT TO LOOK OUT FROM, IF WE DO NOT HEAR FROM THE PRESIDENT, WE ARE SURE TO HEAR FROM REPUBLICANS LATER TODAY ON THAT ISSUE. VONNIE:

BLOOMBERG CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT TYLER KENDALL, THANK YOU SO MUCH. OIL SURGING THE MOST IT HAS IN FOUR YEARS.

BLOOMBERG'S CHIEF EMERGING MARKETS -- THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS PRACTICALLY CLOSED, IF NOT OFFICIALLY CLOSED, NOW WE ARE SEEING DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND PAUSES TO CHECK HOW REFINERIES ARE AND SO ON.

WHY ARE WE NOT SEEING A BIGGER REACTION?

>> BECAUSE OIL HAS BEEN LARGELY SHIELDED FROM THE CONFLICT SO FAR. WE COULD SEE FAR MORE DISRUPTION THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO

FAR. WE COULD SEE FAR MORE DISRUPTION THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. FOR CONTEXT, IRAN PRODUCES

FAR. FOR CONTEXT, IRAN PRODUCES ABOUT 5% OF GLOBAL OIL SURPRISE -- SUPPLIES.

THAT IS SIGNIFICANT BUT NOT IRREPLACEABLE.

WHAT IS IRREPLACEABLE IS IF YOU INCLUDE ITS NEIGHBORS, SAUDI ARABIA, KUWAIT, QATAR, AND SO ON. IF YOU ADD THAT UP, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONE THIRD OF GLOBAL OIL SUPPLIES IN THE ARENA IN THE CONFLICT. THAT IS HARD TO REPLACE.

IF WE TALK ABOUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 20% OF GLOBAL OIL FLOWS GO THROUGH THAT IN A DAILY BASIS.

LIFTING THAT WOULD LIFT PRICES FAR MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.

MOST OF THE INCREASE IN OIL SO FAR HAS BEEN DUE TO FEARS ABOUT ACTUAL DISRUPTION RATHER THAN ACTUAL PHYSICAL DISRUPTION.

VONNIE: IS THIS A DURATION STORY OR A REGIME STORY, OR PURELY A MORTARS STORY.

IF THE FIGHTING STOPPED, THE STRIKES STOPPED, WITH THE MARKETS RETURN TO SOME LEVEL OF CALM? ZIAD:

IT DEPENDS ON THE DURATION OF THE FIGHTING AND ON THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE. IF THE FIGHTING LASTS FOR A FEW DAYS, AND THERE IS NO PERMANENT DAMAGE TO OIL FACILITIES, TO TRADE ROUTES, TWO BUSINESS MODELS HERE IN THE REGION, THEN YES, THINGS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL.

IF IT PERSISTS FOR WEEKS AND THERE IS PERMANENT DAMAGE TO EITHER CERTAIN BUSINESSES, CERTAIN TRANSPORTATION ROUTES, CERTAIN FACILITIES, THEN THERE WILL BE REPERCUSSIONS.

TO SUMMARIZE THE SITUATION, WHAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS UNPRECEDENTED.

WITH AN UNPRECEDENTED SITUATION, YOU GET PREDICTABLE OUTCOMES, WHICH ANALYSTS LIKE MYSELF ARE TRYING TO COME UP WITH, BUT ALSO UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES, THAT'S WHAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH TODAY. VONNIE: ABSOLUTELY.

THAT IS ZIAD DAOUD IN DUBAI. COMING UP, WE WILL GET YOU SET UP FOR YOUR TRADING WEEK. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

VONNIE: NOW A LOOK AT WHAT IS AHEAD THIS WEEK COME APART FROM THE OBVIOUS.

THE FED WILL RELEASE THE BEIGE BOOK WEDNESDAY.

WE ALSO GOT RETAIL SALES THIS WEEK.

PLUS, RUSSIA AND UKRAINE MAY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF TALKS.

THE U.S. WOULD MEDIATE. THAT WOULD HAPPEN THURSDAY.

WE WRAP UP THE WEEK WITH THE JOBS REPORT FRIDAY.

EXPECTED TO COME IN LESS THAN HALF OF LAST MONTH'S GAINS IN TERMS OF JOBS. LATER TODAY, AN INTERVIEW WITH J.P. MORGAN CEO JAMIE DIMON. THAT IS AT 2:00 P.M.

J.P. MORGAN CEO JAMIE DIMON. THAT IS AT 2:00 P.M.

NEW YORK TIME. IT WILL COME FROM THE J.P.

MORGAN GLOBAL LEVERAGED FINANCIAL CONFERENCE.

LET'S LOOK UP THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT AS WE HEAD INTO A DIFFICULT DAY OF TRADING.

BRENT AND WTI UP ALMOST A PERCENT A PIECE OFF THEIR HIGHS OF THE DAY. EUROPE GAS FUTURES UP IN THE LAND OF 25 PERCENT. FUTURES ARE LOWER.

TREASURIES MOVING, NOT AS MUCH AS OTHER ASSET CLASSES.

WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE DOLLAR INDEX RISE ACROSS EVERY MAJOR CURRENCY. THE DOLLAR IS STRONGER.

CURRENCY. THE DOLLAR IS STRONGER.

"SURVEILLANCE" IS NEXT.