Futures Rise on Iran Contact Report; Primary Election Results | Bloomberg Brief 3/4/2026

It's 5AM in New York City, 10AM in London. Good morning.

in London. Good morning.

I'm Vonnie Quinn with your Bloomberg Brief.

Let's get you set up for the day. Stock losses deepen, oil extends gains as hopes fade for a swift end to the Iran war.

President trump says the US will ensure a safe passage of oil from the Middle East as Israel and Iran continue to exchange airstrikes and missile fire.

Primary results are in for one of the biggest contests of the 2026 midterm elections. We look at what Texas results could mean

elections. We look at what Texas results could mean for Republicans in November. Let's take a look at those markets then, because several headlines yesterday seems to calm markets, including the idea that President Trump was somehow going to ensure ships going through the Strait of Hormuz and maybe even have the Navy escort them.

Well, that definitely sent a calm through markets yesterday, but we are seeing a little bit of a rise again today in oil and gas markets.

Not quite the moves that we've been seeing in the last two days, but nevertheless, traders deciding that maybe it might take a little longer for anything that the president could come up with to actually get implemented.

RBC oil analyst Lee McCall saying it's more of a concept of a plan.

She's questioning whether there's been any coordination actually with international tanker insurers and how the DFC is going to get to interested parties, given that the DFC has told them to contact the DFC.

Let's look at futures, because we had a terrible session in Asia.

The coffee was down 12%, its worst day in history.

S&P futures are now unchanged as the market makes a decision on what to do next. But inflation fear is still there with

next. But inflation fear is still there with the ten year yield for oh eight. The dollar index actually giving back some of its gains over the last week. Let's get to some individual movers now for some stocks to watch. Shares of year Abu Omar here.

Good morning, vonnie. So despite a weak trading session in Asia this morning, the US picture actually looks a little better than yesterday. But let me start with the stock that's

yesterday. But let me start with the stock that's doing quite well this morning. Moderna is gaining about 5% in the pre trade session this morning and that is on the back of this litigation settlements. Moderna has agreed to pay $950 million

settlements. Moderna has agreed to pay $950 million regarding a tech that it used to deliver its COVID shots back when COVID was a thing in 2020. So the stock investors are looking favorably at that information, and that is because it removes this looming financial risk that was haunting Moderna.

But another stock that is doing quite well this morning and we flip the page that is lithium group and that is a poor designer, Vonnie.

And it's looking pretty nicely this morning, also adding about 19% in the free trade session and that is on favorable revenue outlook for the coming year. But also on some M&A action, it's

year. But also on some M&A action, it's acquired a smaller pool designer as well.

And then finally, we move on to SanDisk. Now, the reason I chose SanDisk this morning is because of everything that is happening in the Middle East.

So the tensions have created these fears over supply shocks that could happen over the Strait of Hormuz. SanDisk had lost had retreated over the past three sessions. It is up 140% for the entire year, but it's doing quite well this morning, again, gaining about 3% in the pre trade session. That is after a close of about 9% down

session. That is after a close of about 9% down yesterday. So hardware back in our vision, Vonnie

yesterday. So hardware back in our vision, Vonnie and SanDisk is one of those poster child of hardware stocks and back to you that's for sure a bear thank you so much will be back to you later in the hour.

Also coming up in this hour, we speak to Lindsay Neumann of King's College London and Shia Trivedi of Goldman Sachs. The war with Iran showing no signs of a quick end. President Trump has tried to calm

quick end. President Trump has tried to calm markets by ensuring safe passage of oil from the Middle East or pledging to ensure that. Let's go to our team coverage now with

ensure that. Let's go to our team coverage now with Bloomberg's Jomana Versace in Dubai. Kate at bloomberg government in washington and markets reporter Scott montgomery koning.

Jomana, let's start with you. Just give us the latest in terms of strikes ongoing and whether anything looks a little better or a little worse today. Well, the absolute latest and this is a

today. Well, the absolute latest and this is a headline that crossed about 5 minutes ago, Saudi Arabia saying that there was an attempt to attack the Ruston refinery, but that no damage was actually caused. And this is obviously Saudi Arabia's

actually caused. And this is obviously Saudi Arabia's largest refinery. It is one of the largest refineries in

largest refinery. It is one of the largest refineries in the world, and it had been targeted a couple of days ago as well, and have been has been operating with limited capacity.

So yet again, another example of how energy infrastructure is being hit.

And the past couple of days, the big theme, I think, for global markets has been the reverberations of this Iran war on energy, on supply chains.

And President Trump has taken notes. Yesterday, one of the big announcements was that the US are looking to provide naval escorts alongside insurance guarantees to any carriers or vessels that are looking to pass through the straits. But the Strait of Hormuz, as we've been

straits. But the Strait of Hormuz, as we've been talking about, is effectively shut down because tankers do not want to carry the risk of passing through it from a security perspective, but also from a cost perspective as well. The reaction, though, I will say this morning has been quite muted because a lot of experts are questioning how easily implementable this plan is going to be by President Trump and really what

the take up is going to look like and whether actually these carriers would willingly put themselves at the risk of potential bombardments.

Earlier this morning, the Revolutionary Guard saying that they still maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. So just to wrap it together, Vonnie, what you're seeing here is ongoing strikes at energy infrastructure alongside a closure of or effects of closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

And there's no wonder that energy markets are taking notes.

And of course, the secondary effects as it pertains to global economics as well.

Yeah, European natural gas up 70% so far this week.

Kate, let me come to you, because the president certainly seems convinced that he can ease the situation of the Strait of Hormuz, but there's absolutely no guarantee that even if he had the Navy ships to escort every single ship in the Strait of Hormuz, that they'd get away without being attacked by Iran.

Right. Great.

I mean, it's obviously a very volatile situation, but that did do somewhat to calm the the energy sector here in Washington, watching the administration very closely. We're also watching Capitol Hill this

very closely. We're also watching Capitol Hill this week. And the Senate has teed up a vote for

week. And the Senate has teed up a vote for today, the House of Representatives tomorrow to decide whether to rebuke President Trump's, you know, strikes on Iran.

So, you know, those are not likely to pass.

It's mostly along party lines with Republicans in control of the House, in the Senate, and for the most part, his party backing him in this war effort.

But it is something that we're watching a lot on Capitol Hill this week.

Skyler, let me ask you, we're seeing some lot of more muted reaction this morning in markets that said, you know, in the last couple of days, we've seen huge moves and then the market has calmed by the end of the US session.

What should we expect today? Yeah, this is the hard bit, right?

We know that there's going to be an energy impact.

We've seen that massive spike higher in energy prices and gas prices.

And when you have Brent in particular, 40% off the lows, that's going to have some kind of economic impact. Now, the question from here is how high do energy use go and how long do they stay there?

So a key question there will be are we actually going to see ships go through the Strait of Hormuz? And then also, what is the policy response? So some of the worries have been around

response? So some of the worries have been around more fiscal spend related to this. Will we get that from those governments?

It's also questions around will the monetary policy a response be so where there'll be more inflationary worries from these central banks?

And part of that will be, you know, what was the starting point when we came into this crisis. So you'll look at data later today like

this crisis. So you'll look at data later today like U.S. some services to see what the prices

U.S. some services to see what the prices paid component was for the starting point for inflation.

We've already seen some central banks having to intervene as well.

Overnight, we had Indonesia and India intervening to support their currencies.

So if the last couple of days action were to continue for very much longer, it risks getting disorderly in these markets, particularly for the EMS, right? Yes absolutely.

right? Yes absolutely.

And that's what's been more concerning in the last 24 hours, is the initial response was very energy focused. So you had your energy exporters doing all your energy importers doing poorly. Now, that switched.

It's more of a de-leveraging, derisking environment where the stuff that did well year to date. So Korea being a key example, is doing poorly now and even stuff that should benefit from higher energy prices like Brazilian equities are doing poorly as well.

And so that's more concerning because, A, there's still more to go, as in something like Korea is not undone the year to date gains that have been so massive. But also you just have to think about

massive. But also you just have to think about the environment where you have higher yields, where you have a higher US dollar is more negative for these currencies and economies, particularly in AM. All right, Scudder, thank you so much.

in AM. All right, Scudder, thank you so much.

And thanks to our whole team coverage. Bloomberg Revises Anchor Huge Amount of Researcher from Dubai. Kate from Washington, D.C.

and Scott Montgomery coning here in London.

Now to all the top stories trending on the terminal this morning.

U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed for a runoff in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Texas.

U.S. Senate in Texas.

Meantime, state Representatives James Talarico and the defeated Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in a Democratic race that was marred by legal challenges.

The race in Texas is closely watched as Republicans seek to defend their majority in the Senate in November. Private credit funds from Blue Isle Capital to Blackstone are facing a wave of withdrawals and analysts are warning default rates could soar is AIG disrupts corporate America as much as some experts expect. And in private, equity managers are

experts expect. And in private, equity managers are struggling to offload assets and return cash to investors, forcing them to turn to expensive forms of debt to extract returns from businesses they've acquired. And the Blackstone talks on $4 billion

acquired. And the Blackstone talks on $4 billion New World deal hit a roadblock. Sources say that the billionaire family that runs the cash strapped Hong Kong developer is reluctant to give up control. Blackstone has proposed injecting about

control. Blackstone has proposed injecting about two and a half billion dollars into a special purpose vehicle to become the largest shareholder of New World. Coming up, we look at the under the radar trends we should be watching for in the Middle East with Lindsay Neumann of Kings College, London. This is Bloomberg.

This is being work on Vonnie Quinn in London.

Lindsey Neumann of King's College London says an isolated and cornered Iran was vulnerable to exactly the type of operation the US and Israel commenced on Saturday. And while looking for friends, Iran may

Saturday. And while looking for friends, Iran may have just awoken many more regional adversaries.

Lindsay Newman joins us now. Lindsay, you know, you've followed, I'm sure, the tick tock day by day. What's your assessment of where we are right now? Is either sides ready for an off ramp

right now? Is either sides ready for an off ramp yet or do they need to, you know, strike it out for another couple of days?

Thank you so much, Bonnie, for having me.

You know, we are not yet in a position to be deploying off ramps, but we're not so far off, I wouldn't think. You know, the the main issue here is there's going to be a inflection point after which Iran's capabilities, its missile and drone capabilities are so degraded, its leadership structure is so

degraded that it can no longer reasonably continue at the pace that it's going. But the question is, does the U.S.

it's going. But the question is, does the U.S.

and regional part regional actors have the ability to continue to shoot down these drones and these missiles that Iran is firing and not just at Israel, but across the region? And as we know, air defense systems are more expensive than drones. What is your assessment of how Iran has been conducting this operation? We haven't.

I mean, one casualty is too many, right? But we haven't seen hundreds or thousands of casualties. Iran seems to be pinpointing certain areas that it wants to hit. And I'm not sure if it's reaching the targets it wants to hit or what do you think it does want to do here?

Yeah. As I said in that quote that you read from my substack piece on this, Iran had seen its fortunes really fluctuate quite dramatically over the last two years. If you think back just two and a half years ago was the October 7th attack by Hamas, a regional proxy of Iran.

Iran had a very active Houthi proxy in the Red Sea, continues to be active there and various other proxies working in Lebanon and in Syria.

Now, just two and a half years on, most of those proxies have been degraded or eliminated and Iran was in a position where it was facing its own domestic challenges, an economy on the brink, an aging leader, a protest movement in January. And so Iran was really backed into a

January. And so Iran was really backed into a corner when the U.S. and Israel struck and has then shown that it's willing to throw everything at this that it knows is an existential this this operation is an existential threat to Iran's regime and its institutional future, regardless of what Iran is projecting at this moment.

And that's why we're seeing the Iran not just target U.S.

military bases in the region, although, of course, it has not just target Israel, although of course it has, but also target civilian assets, energy assets, economic assets in these regional countries that were otherwise not involved in this war. We're not seeking to be brought into this war. And that has, in fact, awoken in them an

this war. And that has, in fact, awoken in them an animus, a desire to get involved and to see Iran stop with its with these pervasive missile and drone attacks. Sure.

But Lindsay, it's not the case that Iran could do a lot more damage if it wanted to. Is it holding back in some way?

to. Is it holding back in some way?

Because if it goes too far and inflicts major casualties anywhere, well, then all bets are off, right? Then there won't be any sympathy or any road to an off ramp. Yeah, I think it's hard to know.

I mean, we just don't have the counterfactual here of what the impact would be if the 600 or so ballistic missiles that had been fired just at the U.S. alone were actually not shot down by

U.S. alone were actually not shot down by anti defense systems, anti-missile defense systems, that could have been massive, massive damage and casualties. So we just don't have that counterfactual. And we know seemingly that Iran does not

counterfactual. And we know seemingly that Iran does not have the nuclear capability because this would seemingly be the moment to to deploy that. But the question is, is that have Israel

deploy that. But the question is, is that have Israel and the US done enough in actually stopping the missile capability, the launching capability in Iran to prevent the continued deployment of the the actual stockpile that Iran seemingly has?

And the impact is not necessarily high in casualties, although there have been casualties, as you said, and one death is too many.

The president, US President Donald Trump made that clear when he spoke about the operation over the weekend. But we know overnight we're seeing the impact on financial markets, economic markets, the energy pricing.

So this is this is having vast impact. It is a rewriting.

It's a matter of watching. What do you imagine will happen when we get a new supreme leader? Yeah, We're obviously anticipating that they could be announcing a new supreme leader as soon as today.

It appears as though much about Khamenei, Ali Khamenei, his son, is now appears to be the frontrunner for this position.

Israel has been very clear about its intentions that any new leader will be an immediate target for further action. We have to think that after what we've been watching over the last couple of days, that Israeli intelligence, U.S.

intelligence had a pretty good sense of movement and behavior of Iran's leadership structure. And so there are real risks to whoever

leadership structure. And so there are real risks to whoever is appointed the next supreme leader. Now, if that next supreme leader is not immediately targeted, for example, many son is another hardliner expected to carry on exactly in the same direction as his father.

We're not expecting to see regime change from within the leadership structure.

It has not yet been clear that there is anybody been identified by the U.S.

administration or otherwise that is a so-called moderate in this Iran regime.

So the the likelihood of a situation where we're going to see something like Venezuela is quite slim. The real opportunity for change is if once the dust settles on all of this military operation, how the Iranian people respond. And that is a big question.

people respond. And that is a big question.

What is the sentiment of Iranian people right now?

And it's it's a real unknown. It's a it's a real unknown.

Lindsay, thank you so much. Lindsay Newman of Kings College, London.

Coming up, Minneapolis Fed president discusses the Fed's rate path this year.

More from that conversation at the Bloomberg Investor Conference.

That's next. This is Bloomberg.

This is Bloomberg Briefing Vonnie Quinn in London, minneapolis that President Neel Kashkari spoke about the resilience of the US economy and what it means for the Fed's rate path this year. He spoke with Bloomberg's Michael McKee from the Bloomberg Investor Conference in New York.

The inflation data before Iran, I think, has suggested that inflation is running somewhere between two and a half and 3%. I think housing inflation is trending down. I've got a lot of confidence in that.

down. I've got a lot of confidence in that.

Our core goods inflation has been trending up because of tariffs.

Services inflation, I think is slowly trending down, tied to the labor market.

And the labor market is in a decent place, but showing some signs of softness. And so that's what gave me confidence

softness. And so that's what gave me confidence that, hey, one cut later this year might make sense.

Now, the neutral rate. I don't know.

Well, tell us where you think we are compared to neutral, because the question I have is every ACP says that the Fed will hit its target two years from now. I know.

from now. I know.

Next CPI says two years from now. Are you ever going to really hit it?

Well, we have to hit it. And I think my colleagues and I are committed for the credibility of the institution and for anchored inflation expectations that we absolutely have to hit it.

But where the neutral rate is has been a big question mark over the last several years. We kept forecasting that the US economy

years. We kept forecasting that the US economy is going to slow down and then it just power through.

I thought when we raised rates as aggressively as we did that we'd be slamming the brakes on the economy. We weren't.

The economy proved to be much more resilient in the face of tariffs.

It created a lot of uncertainty, created a lot of noise.

Race good. Inflation went up, but the US economy proved more resilient. And so the fact that the US economy has been this resilient, given the stance of our monetary policy, tells me the neutral rate must be higher, at least in the near term.

That was Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking with Bloomberg's Michael McKee from the Bloomberg Investor Conference in New York.

And do tune in for day two of Bloomberg Invest.

Guests include Yasuo and Hong of State street, Bruce Richards of Marathon and Scott Nuttall, KKR CEO. And the Middle East dominating front pages once again today. And The Washington Post leads with the Pentagon identifying four out of six soldiers killed in the war with Iran.

The four soldiers were killed in a drone attack in Kuwait.

The Wall Street Journal leading with reporting suggesting Israel is blowing up Iran's police state to clear the way for a revolt.

The Journal says airstrikes have targeted organizations responsible for suppressing protests and cracking down on separatists.

Analysts, though, are skeptical the strategy would work.

And the Financial Times leads with Israel vowing to kill Iran's next leader. Israel's defense minister says any

leader. Israel's defense minister says any candidate would be a, quote, terror target for elimination.

Coming up, we look at FedEx havens of choice in an environment of higher oil.

Marcia Trivedi of Goldman Sachs joins.

It's 5:30 a.m. in New York City, 10:30 a.m.

in london. Good morning.

I'm Vonnie Quinn with your bloomberg brief.

Let's get you set up for the day. So glasgow's deep in oil extended its gains as hopes fade for a swift end to the iran war.

President Trump says the US will ensure a safe passage of oil from the Middle East as Israel and Iran continue to exchange airstrikes and missile fire.

And primary results are in for one of the biggest contests of the 2026 midterm elections. We'll look at what Texas results could

elections. We'll look at what Texas results could mean for Republicans in November. So let's take a look at these markets then, because they are moving on every single headline.

Right now, though, Brent crude is still above $83 a barrel and WTI is still close to $76 a barrel. This is a market that is jittery.

And when President Trump said he could insure, insure, if you like, or reinsure the insurers of tankers that are going through the strait.

Well, at first it calms the market. But then analysts started saying, well, hang on a second, how long is that going to take?

And has the mechanism started to go into effect and who contacts who?

And has the administration actually told so many insurers?

We'll see what happens there. But certainly gas futures are a little bit lower today, having gone up 70% this week.

So that's the context of that 2.6% move. It's really not all that much.

Let's take a look at futures, because we had a really terrible session in Asia overnight. Europe was mixed.

overnight. Europe was mixed.

S&P futures are now actually gaining again.

Don't forget, though, Monday, we did see a nice rally in tech shares.

Microsoft is up more than 1% Monday, so it wouldn't be too unusual to see a rally perhaps today. The ten year yield, though, still expressing inflation concerns at 407 47. And the dollar index giving up some of this week's gains. Let's get to some individual movers now with a beer, Abu Omar. Good morning, Vonnie.

So the picture for U.S. equities this morning is not as bad as it was yesterday, up 2/10 of a percent. Moving on to some of the individual movers that are contributing to this gain in the S&P is possibly Moderna.

And I'll take you back to Covid days. I know it's unfortunate, but Moderna is gaining nicely this morning, adding to those gains earlier from the pre in the pre trade session up more than 5% and that is on the back of settling this litigation over patents over the tech that it used essentially to deliver the

COVID vaccination shots back in 2020. So 950 million that it's paying and that removes this spookiness that investors had about the financial future of the vaccine provider. Another stock that is doing quite well

vaccine provider. Another stock that is doing quite well is smaller, but we flip the page and we see Lazard Group here that is gaining about 20%. It's advancing quite well in the pre

about 20%. It's advancing quite well in the pre trade market in this morning's session. And this is a pool designer.

It's up on some fundamentals. The results were pretty good.

The outlook for sales over this coming year is pretty good.

But also this is moving upwards on the back of some M&A action.

It is agreed to buy a smaller pool designer for about 7 million.

So not a massive deal, but investors are looking favorably at that.

And then finally, we look at the opposite side of the software trade.

Now, SanDisk has been doing quite well this year, up 140%.

This is despite some retreat that it saw over the past three sessions, down 9% yesterday at the close. It's gaining more than 3% this morning.

And that is on the back of some easing in the supply shocks that we're seeing coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. And this is SanDisk for you.

The hardware stories back in vision. Bonnie, back to you.

Yes, it is a virus. Thank you so much.

Of era Abu Omar there Now central banks in India and Indonesia had to intervene overnight to support their currencies. An ongoing effect from higher oil prices stoking inflation concerns. Well, Korean authorities say they'll closely monitor the one. This after the dollar appreciated for a third day. It's good to have some of those gains

third day. It's good to have some of those gains now. But come on.

now. But come on.

Asha Trivedi is head of global effects and interest rates at Goldman Sachs and he joins us now. And he's going to explain everything that's been happening in the last 72 hours.

Can I ask you this intervention, is it a sign that markets are unraveling in some emerging markets where they may not be able to take this kind of pressure that US liquid hefty markets can take? I think unraveling is a strong word.

I mean, I think that what you are seeing is certainly the volatility has picked up. I think particularly if you are on the

up. I think particularly if you are on the oil importing side of, you know, the trade balance and India is a very good example of that, then I think you are going to see volatility.

I think you are going to see weakness. I think there's concern around what that means for the balance of payments if there is a sustained move higher in oil prices. And so I think, you know, some of this

prices. And so I think, you know, some of this intervention reflects in an attempt to try and calm that volatility.

I think stepping back, though, I think the bigger picture here is that, you know, you're seeing two things come together.

One is that, you know, when you have an oil shock of the kind that we've had the US and the US dollar in for. There is a major gain there relative to, say, Europe and Asia. And I think that's one dimension along which the shock is playing out. But the other is that we came into this event over the weekend with markets and investors broadly positioned the other way around. People are generally longer.

way around. People are generally longer.

The rest of the world, there were longer equities in Asia, they were longer fixed income in Europe, for example. And I think what you've seen is this combination of a kind of terms of trade, distributional shock around oil prices, but then also positioning unwind, which I think is contributing to these.

And I think what you're seeing from policy authorities is trying to moderate that a little bit through these interventions.

Sure. This move that we saw on the ten year from basically through 93 before the war to for oh seven, you know, 15 to 20 basis points in the last few days. Is it justified?

Is it expressing concern that will go away as soon if as soon as if these oil prices go down another 0 again? I think the direction of travel is justified. I mean, if I think about, again, what

justified. I mean, if I think about, again, what has happened, I think it's primarily what we have.

Price is a kind of inflationary shock, the fact that oil prices are up.

And so I don't really have a great problem with the level of bond yields.

You know, the move has been relatively rapid, but that reflects the kind of extent and the intensity of the shock that we've had.

I think from here a lot is going to depend on how long the shock lasts.

I mean, if you look at even oil prices, the interesting thing is, as you mentioned earlier, yes, it's spiked. Yes, it's gone up even today.

But the front month oil price is the highest across the whole curves.

Even markets are pricing this as being so far at least a relatively short lived shock. And that's sort of causing some

shock. And that's sort of causing some jitteriness and inflation and that's causing bond yields to move up.

So, again, I think that that all of those reactions make sense.

I think the big unknown, the big uncertainty is are markets too complacent to think about this as just a front month shock or something longer lived? I think the more it becomes a longer

lived? I think the more it becomes a longer lived thing, the more it moves from having just an inflationary impact.

Also broader growth impact. And I think that's what is the shoe that is not yet, you know, something that we've seen and we're seeing the same impetus in VIX for re curves and also in shipping prices.

You know, so beyond sort of the next week, shipping buys actually go down again. So as you say, complacency.

again. So as you say, complacency.

Iran is not Venezuela. It's not going to be sort of we talked into doing a deal with the United States.

At the same time, some kind of off ramp might appear in that case.

Are we back to a situation where the markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts again this year? I think so.

I think if you see a very rapid de-escalation, if we, you know, energy markets, for example, or some of these other markets are correct in thinking that this is a relatively, you know, intense but short lived event, then I think, yes, I think you will go back to a world where, you know, in general, without this energy price impulse, actually inflation was trending down in

many parts of the world. The US, you know, is one of those, you know, but it's really a broader phenomenon across, you know, other demand and parts of the market. And I think in that sort of eventuality, yes, I think two cuts by the Fed, perhaps backloaded into the second half of the year seemed like the right baseline scenario.

Is it binary? I mean, do we either go up substantially from here on oil prices or go down substantially?

Because it seems to me that $75 on a barrel of WTI is not the end of the world, even for inflation, but something a lot higher would be something a lot lower would be back to where we were. I think something a lot lower would definitely be back to where we were again.

I think it depends a little bit on, you know, how the physical disruptions ease, right? Like whether you see a kind of end to

right? Like whether you see a kind of end to this most intense phase, whether you start to seeing the physical supply start to move out of that region into the rest of the world, I think that's the key, right? Like, I think, you know, if you if this starts to last beyond three, four or five weeks, I think we are not the markets are not quite price for that. So the dollar has been the beneficiary

here. What currencies are you most focused on,

here. What currencies are you most focused on, most concerned about, perhaps? Look, I think that the dollar, you know, is one of the gainers in this kind of terms of trade shock with higher energy prices. I think a lot of people have been

prices. I think a lot of people have been looking at the yen, for example. You know why the yen hasn't quite appreciated as it would have done in other events, you know, where you have risk off. But I think, again, it's important.

risk off. But I think, again, it's important.

Remember the yen and Japan and a lot of Asia is on the wrong side of this oil trade balance. And so I think that to some extent, the

trade balance. And so I think that to some extent, the higher inflationary impulse, the higher import energy bill that is going to come as a result of this, I think kind of tends to weigh on the yen.

So I think it makes sense that say something like the Swiss franc, you know, is a better safe haven in these kinds of geopolitical situations than the yen for, say, And then I think, you know, as you spread the the the the gamut wider, you know, places like Canada, Canadian dollar are outperforming here again in oil exporter places like Hungary, you know, the

Hungarian forint underperforming tends to be very sensitive to kind of higher natural gas prices. All of these things make sense from a fundamental, you know, energy balance perspective.

But I think there moves are being somewhat.

Exactly. Submitted by that positioning element that I mentioned. I think people generally came into this long a lot of carry trades long, a lot of duration, short dollars, long international equities. And some of what you're seeing in the

international equities. And some of what you're seeing in the price action, for example, in the Cosby this morning, I think is a reflection of not just that terms of trade differentiation, but also the positioning unwinds that are taking place.

A fantastic self always a pleasure is thank you so much.

Can I Trivedi of Goldman Sachs. Now two other top stories trending on the terminal this morning. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says he's been surprised by the, quote, benign reaction in financial markets to the Middle East complex. Speaking at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney, Solomon said it will take weeks to understand more about the situation in the region.

Several Chinese financial firms are scaling back exposure to Middle Eastern debt. Regulators are stepping up oversight as

debt. Regulators are stepping up oversight as the conflict raises concerns over the nation's extensive lending in the region. According to Bloomberg Data, Chinese

region. According to Bloomberg Data, Chinese bank loans in the region jumped to a record 5.7 billion in 2025, with the bulk going to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

And Blackstone takes on the $4 billion New World deal.

It did hit a roadblock, though. Sources say that the billionaire family that runs the cash strapped Hong Kong developer is reluctant to give up control. Blackstone has proposed injecting about

control. Blackstone has proposed injecting about two and a half billion dollars into a special purpose vehicle to become the largest shareholder of New World. Coming up, the results are in for the Texas primaries. We'll discuss what it signals ahead of

Texas primaries. We'll discuss what it signals ahead of the November midterms. This is Bloomberg.

There are simply too much at stake in this midterm election for our state and for our country. The final two years of presidents, President Trump's agenda hangs in the balance.

I can tell you now that people have been disenfranchised.

The results of the Texas primary races are sending signals for Republicans. The Texas Senate race has implications for which party will control the chamber after the midterms. Meanwhile, incumbent Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett was defeated in the Democratic Senate race. Joining us now from Washington is Kate Anthony of Bloomberg Government. So what lessons will Republicans be

taking away today case? Well, first of all, this primary for the Texas Senate seat was already the most expensive primary for U.S.

Senate seat ever. There was something like almost 30 million spent. When you look at the super PACs, the

million spent. When you look at the super PACs, the candidates on both sides of the aisle. And now with this going into a runoff between Senator Cornyn and Ken Paxton, the spending is just going to continue to surge. On the Republican side, there are a lot

to surge. On the Republican side, there are a lot of big money donors and groups that are involved in that race.

And we're going to just see for the next, you know, till the end of May, there's going to be a real ad blitz for both of these candidates and against both of these candidates. So that's a big takeaway.

Big price tag for elections this cycle. This one right now leading the pack on that. You know, you also see sort of this, you

that. You know, you also see sort of this, you know, what is the future of the Republican Party?

The criticism for people who didn't vote for Cornyn is that, you know, he's too much the old guard establishment Republican.

So we'll see. Does President Donald Trump weigh in on this race? He did not endorse.

this race? He did not endorse.

He was down in Texas and sort of said positive things about the candidates, the Republican candidates in the race, but did not make an endorsement.

There will be some pressure. Does he weigh in or just let these two remaining candidates fight it out in the runoff?

I'll also say that in terms of what this means for control of the Senate, you know, next year, after the November elections, this year, there are a lot of Democratic donors that have expressed skepticism that Texas is really, you know, online live. But you're going to see a flood of of

excited Democratic small dollar donors. I think flooding in for for Talarico who who do see this as a potential, you know, decider in the control of the Senate. Kate.

Senate. Kate.

A fascinating evening indeed, Kate, actually, of Bloomberg Government.

Thank you. Oil paring some gains now on the plan to insure and escort tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz that President Trump put out there. Joining us now is Bloomberg's Anthony DePaula. Anthony, how possible is this?

DePaula. Anthony, how possible is this?

Can the president guarantee anything in the Strait of Hormuz?

Yeah. Hi.

Good morning, Bonnie. That's a that's a great question.

Whether he can guarantee everything, because we've seen some of those reports saying that any U.S. escort ships would be kind of sitting ducks as they go through that narrow passage, because the Iranian navy, the IRGC, Navy are all looking at that area very closely.

And we have already seen some oil tankers that have been hit even in the first couple of days of this conflict that have been hit in and around the Strait of Hormuz. That's a really risky, risky situation there. We did see in the Red Sea when we had the the Houthis in Yemen firing missiles and attacking shipping going through there, that that naval escorts were only able to alleviate some of the

risk. They weren't able to help all of the

risk. They weren't able to help all of the situation there. And that was with an adversary in Yemen

situation there. And that was with an adversary in Yemen that had much less advanced weaponry than than what we think the Iranians have. And then that can bring to bear in a

have. And then that can bring to bear in a much smaller portion of sea. So it's a big risk there.

You can see also from the markets today that the markets are really a little bit skeptical of that being a successful way of reopening shipping into the Persian Gulf via Hormuz or even excuse me, bringing vessels also out of Hormuz, because there are a lot stuck in there. We've seen oil prices still high.

They came off a little bit, as you said, but not that much, not enough to show that the markets are seeing an opening of Hormuz.

And we still have European gas prices which have absolutely skyrocketed.

And those are very high because the LNG tankers that are supposed to come out of the Gulf, we've got plants in Qatar, Abu Dhabi, those are blocked and not able to supply the markets. So that's why we're seeing those prices really high. The market really isn't seeing the

really high. The market really isn't seeing the mechanics and the possibility of that opening up Hormuz just yet, Vonnie.

Anthony, thank you so much. That is Bloomberg's Anthony DePaula for us there. Santander executive chair Albertine says

us there. Santander executive chair Albertine says she is confident the US and Spain will repair ties after President Trump threatened to cut all trade with the country.

She spoke with Bloomberg's Dani Burger following Trump's comments.

Spain and the United States have had an amazing relationship forever, you know, centuries, and I'm sure that's going to happen again very soon.

So. Santander on the other side.

We have a big investor in the United States.

We see ourselves as a bridge between the United States and Latin America and Europe and the United States. So we all focus on serving our customers. We have close to 5 million Americans

customers. We have close to 5 million Americans that we serve every day. So, you know, this is a great country and we're investing more. Are you concerned about any greater impact when it comes to either Spain or Santander itself?

If this is what happens, if there is trade cut off, how big of a ramification could that have? So at the end, we're here to serve our customers. And if our customers need our support,

customers. And if our customers need our support, you know, that's what we're here for. So, you know, we are a great connector.

Trade is one of our big activities. We're one of the big trade finance banks in the world. And again, what we see is that the trade continues and is very strong, and that's the numbers.

So there's still a lot of connection increase in connection between our countries. So you're confident on the relationship

countries. So you're confident on the relationship between the US and Spain, between Santander and the US?

Regardless of what the headlines are, is that fair to say?

Yes. You know, the long term relationship is strong and I think that's where you go back to again, we're living very extraordinary times. Can I ask, because you also did a deal

extraordinary times. Can I ask, because you also did a deal recently announced you you're buying Webstore in the US, given some of the political volatility. How do you think about your regulatory

political volatility. How do you think about your regulatory outlook? Are you concerned that that might come

outlook? Are you concerned that that might come under greater scrutiny if there are relationships fraying?

So at the end of the day, our business model is perfect for what's going on in terms of fragmentation. So we invest in the countries where we operate. We have subsidiaries, we bring a lot of

operate. We have subsidiaries, we bring a lot of capital. That is exactly what, you know,

capital. That is exactly what, you know, countries are looking for right now. So we don't operate from one country into another. We actually invest and we have physical

into another. We actually invest and we have physical presence with employing thousands of people.

So our model is very well suited for today's more fragmented world.

Just one one final point on sort of some of this dislocation we're seeing, because a lot of this obviously came up after war broke out in Iran.

How are you thinking about your Middle Eastern presence and how that might affect Santander? We have a very limited Middle Eastern

affect Santander? We have a very limited Middle Eastern presence. We're basically one of the largest banks

presence. We're basically one of the largest banks in the world by number of customers, 180 million in Europe and the Americas.

And as we see the situation today, clearly there's a risk that growth will slow down if this goes on for, you know, months.

But our presence right now across the Americas will be, I think, least affected than almost any other part of the world.

So, again, slower growth potentially. But for Santander, actually our footprint is in the least affected regions.

Are you thinking about inflation at all as a potential risk?

Absolutely, yes. I think inflation is a risk.

Stagflation at the end is the risk we're facing if this lasts.

But it's very early days. We don't know.

Santander executive chair Ana Botin with Bloomberg's Dani Burger.

And don't Miss Danny's deal show every Wednesday at noon New York time.

Coming up, we'll get you set up for your trading day with ADP data and the Beige Book on day. This is Bloomberg.

This is bloomberg briefed on Vonnie Quinn in london.

Now a look at what's ahead. ADP data out at 815 eastern.

We also get ism services at 10 a.m.. Plus the fed releases the beige book at 2 p.m. eastern.

2 p.m. eastern.

And then after market close, we get broadcom earnings.

We'll see what the market decides to concentrate on today.

Certainly in the early going, we're seeing a bit of a mixed picture.

So in Europe, for example, the session is higher.

Now we just got euro and employment data that was unexpectedly lower than forecast. That's playing into the

forecast. That's playing into the calm that we're seeing in markets, but also this idea that crude oil perhaps isn't rallying as much as it did the first couple of days of this week after the war started. So we do have Brent crude above $82 a barrel, but maybe 85 is the next level to be looking at is WTI is still around $75 a barrel waiting to see if the plan that the president put out there could

actually be implemented in any way and what it might mean for cargoes stuck in the in or outside the Strait of Hormuz. And that's having a knock on effect to futures. As you can see, the S&P futures and

futures. As you can see, the S&P futures and NASDAQ futures are pointed to gains today in the session.

We'll see if that holds, of course, but not much has held from the morning to the afternoon In the previous sessions, inflation fear still out there according to the ten year yield. That's it for Bloomberg brief.