Game Theory #11: The Law of Escalation

We continue our analysis of the US Iran war. And in this war, there are three

war. And in this war, there are three major questions that will determine the outcome of this war as well as the world afterwards.

Okay. And these three questions are number one, will the US launch a ground invasion?

So right now the United States and Israel are primarily focused on a air war striking um Iran from a distance. In the past we

would call this siege warfare.

And as long as it remains an ear war, the United States can choose to deescalate and withdraw from the Middle East. They would lose this war, but the

East. They would lose this war, but the loss would not be catastrophic.

Whereas if they choose to launch a ground invasion, it would escalate very quickly and they would be trapped in Iran for the next 5

to 10 years. It would be a catastrophe whether or not they win or lose because in order to fight a ground war, United States would have to institute a

national draft where a young man um as young as 18 would be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in Iran. Okay,

so that's the first big question for us.

Will the United States send in ground troops? Remember this. There's the idea

troops? Remember this. There's the idea of mission creep where maybe in the beginning you're like, I'll send out a,000 troops to do a small mission, but then

it doesn't go well. So you send in 2,000. Okay, it slowly creeps up. It's

2,000. Okay, it slowly creeps up. It's

what we call mission creep. That's how

the United States embroiled itself in Vietnam. All right, so that's the first

Vietnam. All right, so that's the first big question. Second big question is,

big question. Second big question is, will nukes be used?

There's a lot of concern online that Israel is preparing a nuclear strike on Iran because the Israelis don't like how the world how

how the war is going and they want to reclaim the initiative.

Nukes are a taboo in geopolitics.

The Americans used them at the end of World War II and no one's used them ever since.

If Israel were to use tactical nuclear weapons, they would break this universal taboo and we might find ourselves in a nuclear apocalypse. Okay, so that's a

nuclear apocalypse. Okay, so that's a great concern that everyone has right now. And the third question is the Alax

now. And the third question is the Alax mosque.

This is the third holiest site in the Islamic world. There's Mecca, there's

Islamic world. There's Mecca, there's Medina, and there's the Alax mosque. The

the Muslims believe that it is from the alaxic mosque in Jerusalem where Muhammad ascended to heaven

and the Jews believe that the Alexic mosque sits on the site of their temple which is the house of God. So

religious Jews, extremists want to destroy the Alexic moss to rebuild the third temple.

And if the religious Jews, the extremists destroy the Azac mos, then the two billion Muslims in this world

would be religiously obligated to go to war against Ishel. Okay. So these are

the three big questions that um uh will determine how this war will determine the future of the world. Okay.

So um in this class I teach you game theory to make predictions about the future. So right now I'm going to make

future. So right now I'm going to make three predictions.

um and then I'm I will show you my analysis as to how I make these predictions. Okay? Now, what's what's

predictions. Okay? Now, what's what's important to understand is that these are only my guesses based on my analysis and whether or not they turn out correct

will determine the validity of my analysis. I don't have inside

analysis. I don't have inside information. I don't know more than you

information. I don't know more than you do. Okay? I'm just working out of public

do. Okay? I'm just working out of public knowledge and doing game theory analysis. So according to game theory

analysis. So according to game theory this is yes. United States will send in ground troops. According to game theory

ground troops. According to game theory this is no.

And number three is yes.

Okay. So what I'm going to do is my next two classes explaining to you my game theory analysis as to how I come to these conclusions and we can watch how

world events unfold. Now I want you to understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my analysis to be valid. I have to be I have to be

be valid. I have to be I have to be correct on all three. Okay? If I miss one then all my theory is wrong.

Um, I know there's a lot of concern from around the world that nukes will be used and I am 100% confident that nukes will

not be used at this time in this war.

And if I'm wrong, I apologize to the world. Okay? But at the same time, we'll

world. Okay? But at the same time, we'll all be dead anyway, so it doesn't really matter. All right? Okay. All right. So

matter. All right? Okay. All right. So

let me explain my analysis. Okay. So

remember today what I'm going to do is do number one and number two. Explain to

you why Israel will not use new weapons and why there will be a ground invasion.

And then next class I'll explain number three to you. Okay. That's a plan for this week.

All right. So to understand what's going on, I need to I need to teach some basic geopolitical theory. Okay. So in

geopolitical theory. Okay. So in

military um affairs in geopolitics there's a concept called escalation ladder.

Escalation ladder.

Okay.

And the dominant theory is that whoever has estrogen dominance has the most advantage. Okay. So, so

what this means is let's just say you and I get in a fight. Okay, I have a knife. You have a gun. Well, gun is more

knife. You have a gun. Well, gun is more dominant than a knife. Therefore, you

have a greater advantage over me and therefore you should win in theory.

Okay?

And apply to this war in the Middle East. Israel and United States have

East. Israel and United States have escalation dominance because they have nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't.

Therefore, the United States and Israel have a huge advantage over Iran. Okay?

But what I will show you today is that this theory is incorrect. It actually

doesn't work that way. Right? So, let's

start off with very simple um example. Let's just say that two people

example. Let's just say that two people get into a fight, okay? A and B.

And how the escalation ladder will work is that maybe A and B run into each other. Okay? And then A says, "Hey man,

other. Okay? And then A says, "Hey man, say sorry." And then B is like, "It's

say sorry." And then B is like, "It's not my fault. You say um sorry." Okay?

So there's a conflict and it's usually a very small conflict. No one knows uh why and no one knows who's at fault. Okay?

So they start cursing each other. Okay?

So the first step is a conflict. Second

step is they start cursing each other, right? Screw you.

right? Screw you.

Screw you.

And then they might start pushing each other right?

Push. Push. And then they hit each other. Okay. Punch. Punch. And then they

other. Okay. Punch. Punch. And then they start the fight.

And then one pulls out a knife and the other pulls out a gun. All right. and

then B should a fight over right okay so there are certain things that we need to keep in mind about this example first of

all the fight is not contained in itself okay you cannot perceive this game as just one between A and B who's physically stronger there are other

players involved as well okay so for example there are spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spectators or friends, there's a crowd watching you. Okay, this

is important because there's also the police, right? Eventually the police

police, right? Eventually the police will come um the government and they'll ask people, "Hey, what happened, man? Whose

fault was it?" Right? And also for people who are religious, there's also God, right? If you die, you have to go

God, right? If you die, you have to go up to God heaven and God's going to ask you, "Hey, man, how did you die?"

So you have to explain how you died. All

right? So in other words, in this escalation ladder, there's three factors that you have to consider that drive people up this escalation ladder. These

three factors are of course emotions.

Second uh is power and the third is reason or logic.

Okay? And what drives people up is adrenaline.

In other words, it is impossible to go to skip the escalation ladder, right?

You don't go from like, "Hey, screw you." to like the guy pulling out a gun

you." to like the guy pulling out a gun and shooting you, okay? You have to go step by step by step because adrenaline is rushing in your system. And this

adrenaline, it's making you more angry, but it's also making you stronger and more resolved. And it's also telling you

more resolved. And it's also telling you how to fight this battle. Okay? And the

thing to remember about this is this is really important is that it's not about how fast you climb up the escalation ladder. Okay? If you get too angry and

ladder. Okay? If you get too angry and you overreact, then you are at fault, right?

What you want to do is climb it up strategically. And that means you have

strategically. And that means you have to remain calm and controlled. Because

if you remain calm, controlled, you have three advantages over your opponent. The

first is um focus, second is clarity, and the third is

um focus uh you you're clear and resolve. Okay,

sorry. Resolve. Okay, what this means is like you know what you're doing. You

have a strategy. You are clear about how to achieve your strategy and your goal and you are determined to achieve it.

Okay. But in order to have all three, you have to remain calm. And therefore,

you need to control yourself as you climb up this escalation ladder. Because

remember, it's just not about being your opponent. It's about justifying yourself

opponent. It's about justifying yourself to your friends, to the police, and to God as well. Because you might hit that person, he might go to hospital, and you've won the fight, but then you go to

you go you go to prison for 10 years, in which case you've lost the fight. Okay?

All right. So the main idea I want you to remember is this and this is the law of escalation and this is a very important idea in my game theory model.

Control is more important than dominance.

Okay. Control is more important than dominance. Why? Because control is the

dominance. Why? Because control is the idea of calibration.

Calibration means that you time or you structure or you strategize your response in a way that helps you achieve your strategic objective. Okay? You're

not just throwing punches. You're

throwing a punch in a certain way that allows you to defend yourself that strikes fear in the opponent and also

allows you to seem as the good guy among spectators.

Okay? And then when the police come, you can justify why you threw a punch in a certain way to the police so that you don't go to jail. Okay? All right. So

another way of saying this is that calibration is ultimately about strategic flexibility.

And the idea of strategic flexibility is in a fight, the person who has the most options, the person who um

has the most flexible strategy will usually win the fight. Okay. There's a

lot of escalation and I'll explain to you how this applies to the US Iran war.

Okay. All right. So before I actually talk about the war, what I what I want to do is do is what I want to do is do a thought experiment to examine how we can

understand what's going on between United States and Iran. Okay. So let's

do a thought experiment. And thought

experiment is this. Let's just say that there's a bully. Okay.

and he's the biggest guy in the school and he has a gang. Okay, these are his friends and there's like uh maybe four of them.

And so what they do is they basically pray on everyone at the school. Okay? And there's maybe a

school. Okay? And there's maybe a hundred people at the school, right?

And so what they do is they make everyone in the cafeteria pay a tax.

Okay? If you want to go in the cafeteria and eat, you have to pay a tax. Maybe a

dollar, who knows? Okay? And the friends of the bully go collect the tax and then give him all the money. Okay?

And that is the structure of the school where if you want to eat lunch in the cafeteria, you have to pay a tax and the bully's friends collect the money and

the bully shares the money among amongst his gang. Okay. Now, at first people are

his gang. Okay. Now, at first people are okay with this system because they think that it's actually beneficial because the bully is keeping the peace and order

in that cafeteria, right? He's keeping

everyone safe. So yeah, I pay a dollar, but it's not that much money and we're all safe so that we can all enjoy our lunch in peace in the cafeteria. Okay,

but then what happens over time is that the bully gets more and more arrogant because he feels invincible. Everyone just obeys

feels invincible. Everyone just obeys him. So he develops the idea of hubris.

him. So he develops the idea of hubris.

And the idea of hubris is that no one's no one has the courage to challenge me.

Everyone's afraid of me and therefore I can do what I want. So what does he do?

Well, the first thing he does is that he charges more money from everyone. Okay?

So the tax goes up and so people are disgruntled about this. Okay? They they

don't understand why they're paying more to the bully. Okay? But not only that, but what he will also do is pay less money to his friends so that he can have

more money because he wants to buy a car or he wants to go to Paris for the summer. Okay, does that make sense?

summer. Okay, does that make sense?

Okay. So, everyone's not happy about this, but but this the reality that they live in and there's nothing they can do about it and so people just put up with

it. One day a new kid comes into the

it. One day a new kid comes into the school. Okay, the new kid

school. Okay, the new kid and he doesn't really understand the rules of the game. He goes to cafeteria and he doesn't know he's supposed to pay

a tax, right? So the bully's friend comes over and says, "Hey man, where's where's the dollar?" And he's like, "What dollar? I just got here." And he

"What dollar? I just got here." And he refuses to pay. And so what they decide to do is teach him a lesson by ostracizing him, by making him sit alone

by himself in the cafeteria. Okay? You

have no friends because you don't know the rules and you refuse to play along.

And the new kid is like, "I don't care.

I'm happy not having any friends." Okay?

And so then the bullying and his friends start to discuss, "How can we get this new kid to play along?"

And so they decide what they're going to do is they're going to curse him.

They're going to bully him. Okay? So the

new kid goes to lunch and he's eating his lunch and the friends come down and start to curse him. Says, "You're a wimp. Do you want to fight us?" And what

wimp. Do you want to fight us?" And what the new kid does is he just ignores the these these guys. And these guys are like, "What's going on, man? Why is he

afraid of us?" And slowly what happens is that the other people, the other kids recognize that, wow, maybe it is possible to rebel against

the bully. Maybe it is possible not to

the bully. Maybe it is possible not to pay these stupid taxes.

And so they start talking to him secretly. Okay? They give him presents.

secretly. Okay? They give him presents.

They start say smile at him. They say hi to him. Okay? But the new kid just

to him. Okay? But the new kid just ignores everything, right?

And then the friends are like, "You know what? We don't actually benefit this

what? We don't actually benefit this much from this relationship anyway.

Maybe if we appoint this new kid as the new bully, the new boss, he'll treat us better." And then you have other friends

better." And then you have other friends who are like, "You know what? This

bully, he's he's fat, he's ugly. Maybe I

should be the boss." Okay. So just

because a new kid comes in doesn't know the rules and he's willing to challenge the reality, challenge the assumptions, the values of this cafeteria.

Now there's descent. Now there's

rebellion going on. Okay? And different

people are talking to him and um trying to form alliances with him.

But what he does, and it's really really interesting, is that he just ignores everyone and keeps focused. Okay. And

then one day, um, the bully's friend comes over and says, "You know what?

You're a whip." And the new kid finally says, "I'm not afraid of you." Okay. And

then this friend goes back and tells his boss, "Hey, this new kid said, "He's not afraid of you, man. What are you going to do about it?" The new and the bully gets really angry. Says, "I'm going to

go punch his face." Okay. So, the bully goes in front of Nuke and says, "If you don't apologize, I'm going to punch YOU IN THE FACE." And

the kid is like, "What did I do wrong?

What should I apologize for?" And the bully's kind of confused. So, he goes away, comes out next, AND SAYS, "YOU APOLOGIZE NOW, MAN." AND THE kid's like, "Okay, for what? Tell me tell me to

apologize for what?" And this goes on for a long time, okay? And then

eventually the bully gets so pissed off that he punches the new kid in the face.

Okay, so he started it. The new kid he's he's he's um uh hurt, but he decides to punch the bully back in the face. Okay,

and the bully stronger, so he beats the bully up. So he beats up the new kid.

bully up. So he beats up the new kid.

But what's happened now is that everyone in the school has seen that the bully is not that strong. everyone's seen that

the bully is actually um pretty weak and so they recognize that hey if we stand alongside the new kid we can beat the bully.

All right and eventually what happens is the bully is defeated. Does that make sense to you guys? All right. So certain

things to understand is that yes, the bully has escalation dominance because he's stronger and he's the biggest kid in the school. He he can

beat up everyone. But what wins the fight is control. What wins the fight is collaboration. Uh sorry, calibration,

collaboration. Uh sorry, calibration, strategic flexibility.

the fact that the new kid has many different options and he's picking the option that is most strategically advantaged to him.

Okay. Now, and what you will notice from this example is the bully doesn't have that many options actually because he needs to maintain the idea of face or

credibility. Right?

credibility. Right?

This is the essence of his power. The

his power lies in the fact that if you do not listen to him, if you not obey him, he will come and beat the crap out of you, right? That's credibility.

And but the moment that you show that is that actually it's actually not that big of a deal to be punched by him. He's not

that strong. Then he loses all credibility. Okay, which means that he

credibility. Okay, which means that he either retreats or he's forced to strike harder to kill you. Okay, to maintain his credibility. So, another way of

his credibility. So, another way of saying this is that um by calibrating your movements

strategically, you can manipulate the bully into selfdestruction.

Does it make sense, you guys?

All right, any questions? Okay, so that's a theory.

any questions? Okay, so that's a theory.

All right, so now what we're going to do is we're going to apply this theory, the law of escalation to what's happening in the Middle East. Okay, we're going to do

that by looking at the escalation ladders of both Iran and the United States. All right.

States. All right.

Okay, this is the US. This is Iran.

Okay, so let's look at the escalation ladder. So the first thing that United

ladder. So the first thing that United States does of course is something called decapitation.

What is decapitation? Decapitation is

like I just kill your leaders. You don't

have any more leaders and therefore you don't know what to do and therefore you surrender. Okay, that's the first thing

surrender. Okay, that's the first thing the US did. It didn't work. So now the United States is doing is attacking military targets, air defense

and military bases. Okay,

that's the second second step.

And the idea is that you beat the crap out of the military so they surrender.

But that didn't work either. Okay. So

then what you do next of course is economic embargo where you basically prevent Iran from trading with the world right

prevent Iran from selling oil to China basically by blockading the seas and the idea here is that if the government doesn't have any money pay it soldiers

it soldiers will just not fight okay but that didn't but that's not either. So

then what you do of course is you attack civilian infrastructure, okay, which is primarily water and oil.

So you may have seen the news that the Israelis attacked an oily pot in Tran.

And now you look if you look at pictures of Tran, it's all black. Okay? And this

is a war crime or this goes against international law because you're attacking civilians. That's but that's

attacking civilians. That's but that's what you do when you feel as though you need to apply more pressure to win this war. Okay? And so you can keep on

war. Okay? And so you can keep on escalating.

Um and then what you do is that now the now that you've attacked the civilians and they still refuse to surrender, what you do now is you use secret weapons.

Secret weapons might be advanced missiles that no one's ever seen before.

Okay? And the and the point of these secret weapons is to scare the crap out of people and say, "You see how dominant we are?" Okay? If that doesn't work,

we are?" Okay? If that doesn't work, then what you do next is use biological and chemical weapons. Okay? Biochemical

weapons doesn't work either. then guys nuclear weapons.

All right. So what's really important for us to understand is that you must follow this escalation ladder if you are to use nuclear weapons. And the reality

is that first of all we have not seen weapons. We have not seen biochemical

weapons. We have not seen biochemical weapons and therefore nuclear weapons comes later. Okay? Unless I see

comes later. Okay? Unless I see biochemical weapons being used, I refuse to believe that nuclear weapons is on the table. Okay. All right. So, I think

the table. Okay. All right. So, I think we are here, which is the beginning of attacks on civilian infrastructure, but already we're seeing

um arguments in the American political system against the use of um weapons against civilians. Okay? And the reason

against civilians. Okay? And the reason why is that if you do this, okay, if you destroy civil infrastructure, you unite the people behind the

government because the idea is that you use air strikes to split apart the government and the people and you want the people to overthrow the government for you. Okay, that's that's the idea

for you. Okay, that's that's the idea here. Um, so we are at this stage,

here. Um, so we are at this stage, meaning that we have a long way to go before we hit nuclear weapons. Okay. All

right. So now let's look at the uh Iranian um escalation ladder. So what's

happening is that in the beginning Iran does um um two major things. Okay. The first is attack

uh military targets. Okay.

And what they're basically targeting are US radar systems and air defenses because once these two things go then

Iran can attack whatever it wants. Okay.

It's also closed to moose.

All right. And by closing the st you put pressure on the economies of the GCC as well as East Asia. The hope is that um

by blockading the economies the GCC uh UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahan, Qatar, Kuwait will put pressure on Donald Trump to end

this war as quickly as possible. Also

um East Asia receives most of its oil from the GCC from the Shumus, right? So

China gets about 40% of its oil. Japan

gets 75%. Um that's a lot of oil. So the

hope is that these countries will put pressure on the United States to end this war as soon as possible. Okay? So

that is the uh Iranian strategy. But if

they're forced to go up the escalation ladder, what will happen is this. If you

attack their economy, they will attack your economy as well. Okay? With

missiles, basically targeting oil fields.

If you attack their civil infrastructure, they will attack your civil infra infrastructure as well. And

what is the main weakness in these GCC countries? Desalination plants. Okay,

countries? Desalination plants. Okay,

desalination plants.

And that's it. Okay, that's the extent of the Iranian escalation ladder because it doesn't have nuclear weapons. It doesn't have

biochemical weapons. Okay? It doesn't

biochemical weapons. Okay? It doesn't

have intercontinental missiles that it can target the United States with. So as you can see, oh the

States with. So as you can see, oh the US and Israel have escalation dominance because it can go up way up higher in

escalation escalation ladder than Iran.

But that's the wrong way to understand this. Okay? Because if you look at their

this. Okay? Because if you look at their strategies, Iran has much more flexibility, much more calibration than the United States. Okay? When the

United States attacks you, it's pretty blunt. But look, if I close all the

blunt. But look, if I close all the short moves, I can be strategic in how I close the show moves. For example, if you're a Chinese ship, I let you pass.

For example, if you are a GCC nation and you want to bribe me, you want you want to pay me a tax, I let you pass as well.

If you're a GC TCC nation, you're like, you know what, forget the United States.

I want to be a friend Iran, I let you pass as well. You understand? So by

closing all the swivel moves, it creates a calibration strategy. It allows Iran to selectively and strategically apply

pressure to the friends of the United States so that they become the friends of Iran. Okay. Same thing with these

of Iran. Okay. Same thing with these drone strikes um against oil fields and military targets, right?

If you attack me, I attack you with drones. But if you don't attack me, then

drones. But if you don't attack me, then I don't attack you. Okay? So in other words, okay, this is really important idea.

The US and Iran have different military decision trees.

Okay? All right. So let me explain how.

Because United States and Israel, they're just attacking Iran.

Okay. And they attack with air power. So

that's very blunt, right? Okay. So you

go from one step to the next to the next to the next. Okay. This is this the classic escalation ladder. Iran is not like this. Their decision tree is

like this. Their decision tree is different. Okay? Because their strategy

different. Okay? Because their strategy is to force United States to omit defeat and retreat from the GCC. Okay. To close

down the military bases in the Middle East so that Iran has control over the surgical moves and therefore it can control all world trade.

All right. So that's a strategy. So this

strategy means that you have different options. All right. Your options are um

options. All right. Your options are um attack Israel um your mil military targets civil

targets Tel Aviv. Okay. All right. So I

don't want to spend too much time on this but as you can see um if you think about it Iran can be much more selective in its targeting than United States and

Israel and therefore the options that it has it is much more diverse

which gives Iran escalation control over the situation. Okay. Do you guys do you guys do you guys understand this?

All right. So, let's

look at why Iran has uh advantages over the gas station. Okay. US

Iran.

The first major difference is that Iran is active whereas the US is passive. Okay. Another

thing this is go back to the bully example where the bully has to maintain credibility. He has to show that he's

credibility. He has to show that he's more powerful than the other than the other kids, right? So if you provoke him, he has no choice in the matter but

to hit you. Okay? But you the new kid can choose whether or not to provoke him or not. You can choose the timing of

or not. You can choose the timing of when to provoke him. Therefore, you are active. Okay. The second big difference

active. Okay. The second big difference is that Iran has a clear strategy.

It knows what it wants to accomplish and uh it knows how to accomplish what it wants. Remember what what Iran wants is

wants. Remember what what Iran wants is control the moose and the United States out of the Middle East. That's what it wants to do. And it's calibrating its

attacks in a certain way to achieve this end goal and it's working out very well for Iran. Okay. The United States on the

for Iran. Okay. The United States on the other hand doesn't know what it wants.

It wants to destroy Iran. What does that mean? Okay, destroy.

mean? Okay, destroy.

It could mean regime change. It could

mean economy collapses. It could mean um the civilian population stars. Okay, it

could mean anything. But because there's so much ambiguity, so much confusion about what it means, it confuses military strategy.

Right? And the last thing is of course is that Iran is flexible and United States is inflexible.

Okay. So by studying the escalation ladder we discover that Iran has far more advantages than the United States.

Okay. All right. So what so what does this mean? All right. It means that Iran

this mean? All right. It means that Iran will probably win this war ultimately.

But um it has there has to be major changes to society in order to win this war.

Right? So remember to win a fight you have to have three things. Focus

um clarity and resolve.

All right.

You have to know what your purpose is.

You have to know how to achieve it and you have to have you have to be determined to achieve it. Okay. So, what

does this mean for the Middle East? What

does it mean for Iran? What first thing is focus means unity?

Meaning that you have to unite your population which means basically crushing all descent. You can't we can't

argue anymore. We have to unify for a

argue anymore. We have to unify for a purpose. Okay. The second thing clarity

purpose. Okay. The second thing clarity is to uh censor people. Censorship.

And we're already seeing that in Israel where you're not allowed to film military strikes. Okay? If a drone comes

military strikes. Okay? If a drone comes and attacks Tel Aviv in Israel, you cannot film that and put on on social media. Okay? The government will come

media. Okay? The government will come and arrest you. Same thing in Dubai. you

cannot show uh Dubai being attacked.

Okay, so massive censorship going on and resolve just means militarization where the Middle East moves towards total war. Total war just means that

total war. Total war just means that every citizen now is recruited into the war effort. It just means that the

war effort. It just means that the entire economy is geared towards um war. Okay. And um one last point I'll

um war. Okay. And um one last point I'll make is this. What we need to understand about the escalation ladder is that as it moves up, we have to remember that

this war is being fought multi-dimensionally.

Okay, what does that mean? It means that the military is just one dimension, but there are four major dimensions. There

are others, but let's focus on four major dimensions. Okay, the first major

major dimensions. Okay, the first major dimension is narrative.

Narrative is basically world opinion.

Second um is political. Political just means the relationship of nations to each other. The relationship of the n of the

other. The relationship of the n of the government to the people. Okay.

Political. The third dimension is economical economic and the fourth is military.

And what's really important to understand is that the military dimension is probably the least important. There are other dimensions

important. There are other dimensions that are much more important.

Therefore, these four factors determine how the United States and Iran move up the escalation ladder. Okay? Because

your purpose is to control the narrative and justify why you're doing what you're doing. Uh political means you you still

doing. Uh political means you you still have to maintain good relations with other states, right? So as United States is fighting this war against Iran, United States is is still talking to

China. United States is still talking to

China. United States is still talking to Russia. Okay. So that discussion that

Russia. Okay. So that discussion that political discussion determines the contours of this fight. Economic means

that as the fight is still happening, nations are still trading with each other and that factors into how the military is fought. Okay, does that make sense? So I know this is very

sense? So I know this is very complicated but you need you need to understand how complicated war is. It's

not as simple as saying you know what let's nuke that guy. Doesn't work that way. Okay. There are a lot of

way. Okay. There are a lot of constraints. There's a lot of factors a

constraints. There's a lot of factors a lot of stakeholders involved to constrain the use of nukes. Okay. All

right. All right. So let's now discuss ground troops. All right. Right. The

ground troops. All right. Right. The

first question we look at is will ground troops be used and the answer unfortunately is yes. They have to be used and it has to do with how the

military works okay of how wars are fought. Basically when you fight a war

fought. Basically when you fight a war you have to have a correct cost pyramid.

Okay.

And the most simple cost pyramid, okay, is is this infantry soldiers, okay?

All right. They're at the bottom. Why?

Because they're the cheapest.

What's above them? Armor.

Okay. Artillery, tanks.

They're more expensive to produce. You

need more resources. You need more time.

Then you have naval, right? Then you

have ear.

Okay, it doesn't make sense. This is the cost pyramid. And cost pyramid just is

cost pyramid. And cost pyramid just is this question of like how much energy, how much time, how much resources do you need, do do you need to produce a certain product. Okay, it cost you very

certain product. Okay, it cost you very little to prod produce a soldier, but it cost you a lot to produce an airplane.

This is important because wars are usually wars of attrition meaning that you have to put all your resources into winning the war. Okay. So this is just

um production capacity and this is the most standard model that you have of a cost pyramid for a military war. Okay, does it make sense

military war. Okay, does it make sense guys? The problem is that the United

guys? The problem is that the United States have an inverse pyramid. Okay.

Meaning that ear is what's dominant, then naval, then uh armor, then soldiers.

You can't fight a war like this. I mean,

the moment you choose to fight a war like this, you've lost the war because you either take out the country in like two days or you screwed over because you

cannot replenish your forces. Now I I I know this is hard to understand but 1991 the Persian Gulf War, 2003 the Iraq war,

these are not real wars, okay? Because

the Americans were so dominant and Iraq was so weak that it was basically a video game. All right, this is these

video game. All right, this is these these pilots flying around is bombing everything. Okay, it's like guys and

everything. Okay, it's like guys and tanks just running over the ar the Iraqi army. Those were just video games. But

army. Those were just video games. But

this Iran thing is a real war and therefore you cannot fight a war like this. If you want to win this war, the

this. If you want to win this war, the only thing you can do is return to a realistic cost pyramid. You don't

have a choice in the matter, right?

Because again, your cheapest um product are soldiers, right? And your most expensive are

right? And your most expensive are airplanes. You cannot afford to use an

airplanes. You cannot afford to use an airplane in order to site to save a life of a soldier. Eventually, this

costbenefit analysis will blow up on you. Okay?

you. Okay?

Okay. Does that make sense, guys? All

right. So, United States wants to win this war, then it has no choice but to use ground troops to use soldiers as the

main force of its military. Any

questions so far? All right. Okay. Now

the question then is will the United States use ground troops? I already said that if United

troops? I already said that if United States is to win this war, it has no choice but to use ground troops. But

will the United States use ground troops? And a lot is determined by the

troops? And a lot is determined by the game theory strategies of the different players. Okay. So let's look at

players. Okay. So let's look at the four major players in this war.

You have US, you have Israel, you have Saudi Arabia, and you have Iran.

Okay. All right. So, United States and Iran, they're pretty easy to understand.

What the United States wants to do is destroy Iran.

Okay? Why? Because if you destroy Iran, United States would have complete control over Middle East oil and it would control global trade for the straight of humus and therefore the

United States can maintain its empire.

Okay, so a really simple objective, let's destroy Iran. We don't care how, we don't care why, let's just go do it.

Okay, Iran has another strategy which is control straight moose and

destroy sencom. Sencom is basically uh the

sencom. Sencom is basically uh the American military in the Middle East called central command. Okay. So those

those are two major military objectives of Iran and we can understand why because if sitcom is destroyed Iran has complete control over the Middle East.

Now Dubai, now uh Oman, Ban, Kuwait have to pay taxes to Iran. Now Iran, the new kid

is now the bully of the Middle East.

Right now it's a hgeimon. That is the political objective of this war. Okay.

Um Israel is a bit more complicated.

All right. For Israel, oh sorry, sorry, sorry. One other thing is humble Israel.

sorry. One other thing is humble Israel.

That that's the other thing because even even if you defeat the United States, you still have to deal with Israel, okay? And Israel is the great military

okay? And Israel is the great military power of the Middle East. So you want to humble them. You want to weaken them.

humble them. You want to weaken them.

You can't destroy Israel because Israel has nuclear weapons, right? You piss off Israel, those nukes start flying. You

don't want that, right? So those are the three major political objectives for Iran. Control the moves, destroy SNCOM,

Iran. Control the moves, destroy SNCOM, and humble Israel. Okay? If you are Israel actually for you the strategy is different. What you want

to do is this. You want to destroy Sencom and destroy Iran.

Okay, those are objectives. Why? Because

if you destroy both United States and you destroy Iran, then you are the sole hegeimon in the Middle East. Okay? also destroy the GCC,

Middle East. Okay? also destroy the GCC, destroy Saudi Arabia as well. Why?

Because once Saudi Arabia is destroyed, all its resources belong to you. Okay?

And then this creates something called the Greater Israel Project, which is what we will discuss next class. But as

you can see, that's really important is that even though United States and Israel are allies, their automo strategy is different.

Their objectives are different. In fact,

they're in conflict. Okay. They have

Saudi Arabia. What does Saudi Arab Arabia want to do? Well, destroy Iran because if you destroy Iran, you have complete control of the moves. Then you

you can be a bully. Okay? But you also want to destroy the US and you want to humble Israel.

All right? Does that make sense? All

right. So by understanding how each player perceives the game, we can now understand how they will go about their

strategy. Right? So the United States

strategy. Right? So the United States just wants to destroy Iran. But as you can see, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all want to destroy the United States.

And how do you do that? You do that by forcing the United States into a long ground war.

Right?

Therefore, if you're Israel, you don't want to use nukes. Why? Because nukes

would end the war too quickly. You want

to drag this war out as long as possible to force the United States to send in ground troops.

And you're like, well, why doesn't the United States use nuclear weapons? And

the answer I is already told you the escalation ladder. It needs to justify

escalation ladder. It needs to justify justify itself to the to the people.

Okay? When you do anything, all right, when you do anything, sorry, when you do anything, you have to worry about certain factors. Okay? You

have to worry about troop morale.

Your soldiers have to believe that they are fighting for a good cause. Okay? You

have to worry about public opinion.

You have to make sure that the world is on your side. You have to worry about politics, political will. You have to make sure the people are unified. Uh,

and you have to worry about enemy morale.

You don't want to piss off the person, your enemy so much that they go into an extreme, uh, they jump the escalation ladder to too to extreme beyond beyond your control. Okay, does that make

your control. Okay, does that make sense? Okay. So, as you can see, war is

sense? Okay. So, as you can see, war is extremely complicated. It's not just

extremely complicated. It's not just about weaponry. It's not just about um

about weaponry. It's not just about um resources. It's ultimately about

resources. It's ultimately about controlling the narrative, controlling the political landscape. Okay?

Marshalling the resources in a proper way that is strategically beneficial.

All right?

Does that make sense to you guys? Okay.

So, um yeah. So, we we just answered two questions. Will the NC use ground

questions. Will the NC use ground troops? Yes, it will because Iran, Saudi

troops? Yes, it will because Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will work together to force a ground invasion even though the United States doesn't want to do so. But

unfortunately, United States doesn't have a clear coherent strategy. It's

passive. Therefore, it can be manipulated into sending a ground invasion. Okay. And the second question

invasion. Okay. And the second question is, will Israel, United States use nuclear weapons? And the answer is no

nuclear weapons? And the answer is no because it's not in their best interest to use nuclear weapons. Okay? Israel

wants the United States to lose this war. And that means a long war that

war. And that means a long war that destroys the American political will to fight any more foreign wars. If America

loses, Israel becomes the dominant power in the Middle East. Okay.

And so the last question is the Alaxic Mosque and we will answer that next class on Thursday. Any questions?

Will will Americans take over Iran like what they did to Venezora like they captured their president?

Okay, look. The strategy in the beginning was to do a Venezuela in Iran, meaning you go in, you kill the leader, a new leader emerges, negotiate with

you, and and surrender to you because you're too powerful. Okay? But Venezuela

and Iran are two very different countries. The Venezuelan elite is very

countries. The Venezuelan elite is very pro-American, meaning that their their wealth, their children, their family is stored in America. Therefore, the

Venezuelan elite have invested interest in negotiating a deal with America to protect their own interests. But for uh 40 plus years, America has sanctioned

the Iranian elite and Iran has become poor and angry and disgruntled because of that. Therefore, they have they lose

of that. Therefore, they have they lose nothing by fighting you. Okay? So, even

though you've killed the supreme leader and you've killed many of their leaders, in fact, the elite themselves are unified in opposing you. Okay. Does that

make sense? Okay. Any more questions? Uh

yep.

Um Allan >> so I in fact have a question about the motivation of US to involve in this war.

like uh as you said that US want to control all the all the oil so like they must destroy Iran but I I think this is

like a little bit confusing because uh I think US know that this war is really uh highly risk and it can potentially even

like destroy the whole systems. So why US risk the the the risk of like whole system collapsing to like control the

oil that Iran had? Okay. All right. So,

this is the um key question that everyone's arguing about. Quite

honestly, we're going to argue this for the rest of eternity. Okay. We're we're

going to argue this for eternity because like no one knows and there's never going to be a clear answer. In fact,

there are multiple possibilities. Okay?

What what I'm going to do today is offer you the most simple explanation. In the

next class, I will offer you a much more complicated explanation. Okay? But

complicated explanation. Okay? But

simple explanation is this. Again, this

goes back to military doctrine. Um, how

the United States military works. Okay?

And the military doctrine is prevent the heartland from arising. Right? So,

United States is here.

This is Europe.

This is Russia.

This is Iran.

India, China, Japan,

this is um Middle East and this is Africa. All right. So the

American military doctrine is this.

The greatest threat to American power is the heartland unifying.

Okay? Why? Because if the heartland unifies, it can trade by itself through railways.

But America is primary a naval power.

Therefore, it requires people to trade by sea.

Okay? And so its strategy is to make sure there's never any cohesion in the heartland either by making sure that no great

power arises in the heartland. And

that's why America went went to war in World War I and World War II because there's a great fear that Germany would conquer the world or Europe and Asia and create the heartland. Okay? Therefore,

America has to stop Germany from rising.

Um so you either make sure no great power arises or you create so much conflict that they're always fighting each other. And that used to work

each other. And that used to work before. Okay. Now there's a problem. The

before. Okay. Now there's a problem. The

problem is the bricks nations Russia, Iran and China are coming together and if they come together guys that's a major piece of the heartland and everyone else Europe Middle East Africa

with India was probably follow because this is easier to trade in the heartland it is trade with America especially with the US dollar declining

right so in other words United States has no no choice but to fight this war because That's their entire strategy to maintain hegemony in the world to

prevent the heartland from unifying.

All right? Does that make sense? Because

like once you destroy Iran, the heartland fractures.

There's no way that they can now trade together anymore. They're still reliant

together anymore. They're still reliant on American um maritime routes. Okay. America

maintains the head is still the hedgeimon because it controls world trade. Whoever controls world trade

trade. Whoever controls world trade controls the world. Whoever controls the heartland controls world trade. Okay.

Does that make sense? Okay. But this is just one explanation. There's actually

other explanations and I I'll go into a more complicated explanation next class.

All right. Any more questions? Yep.

So you mentioned Saudi Arabia and how it wants to see the downfall of both uh the US and Iran.

>> He wants to see the downfall of Israel, US and Iran.

>> Yeah. And to me that sounds like a pretty big goal. And how would you say how would they possibly use their strategy to achieve that goal or how

would it possibly be for Saudi Arabia?

>> Okay. All right. So, it's very confusing to people why Saudi Arabia is actually against Iran. Okay. But actually, if you

against Iran. Okay. But actually, if you go back and look at their history, they have major conflicts with each other.

All right. So, let's go over uh some some of their conflicts.

All right. So, uh Saudi Arabia, Iran, the first major conflict is that Iran is a theocracy and Saudi Arabia is a monarchy.

A theocracy just means that you're ruled by clerics who represent God. A monarchy

is a king who represents God. And for

the Iranians, that is blasphemy. That's

heresy. That's against the religion.

Okay? So Saudi Arabia and Iran hate each other. Saudi Arabia sees Iran as a

other. Saudi Arabia sees Iran as a threat and trying to induce a revolution within Saudi Arabia. Iran sees Saudi

Arabia as blasphemous. Okay.

And it's a huge issue because Saudi Arabia is the home of Mecca Medina, the two holiest sites in the Islamic world.

Okay. Second issue is that uh Saudi Arabia is Sunni and Shia uh and Iran is Shia. So these are two different sects

Shia. So these are two different sects of the same religion, but it's like Protestants and Catholics. They just

hate each other. Okay. Um Okay. And the

last thing is that Iran uh is anti-US and Shiat and Saudi Arabia is pro- US.

What this means is that Saudi Arabia has military bases, American military bases inside of the Holy Land. And for the Iranians, that is the worst crime,

right? Because it's infidels who are

right? Because it's infidels who are protecting the Holy Land. Infidels are

not allowed in the Holy Land, right?

You're not if if you're not a Muslim, you're not allowed to go to Mecca. All

right.

All right. So, Saudi Arabia and Iran hate each other. Saudi Arabia has a huge problem in that it is an oil economy.

It's most of its GDP comes from or exports. And for the longest time, it

exports. And for the longest time, it was trying to build a notch economy. It

was trying to build tourism. It was

trying to promote games. Okay. does not

work. So if you're Saudi Arabia and you see the future, it's a pretty dismal future because eventually your oil is going to run out. Eventually people are going to switch to electrical vehicles

digitization which means that oil is no longer so imported. Okay. So what you need to do is if you're able to control the Middle East, right? So where where

you get your money now is from trade access.

That's a viable future. If you just sit back and wait, eventually your nation is going to run out of oil and therefore it's going to cease to

exist. Okay? So, Saudi Arabia needs to

exist. Okay? So, Saudi Arabia needs to act now and it needs and the way that it wants to act is it wants to create a conflict between United States, Israel

and Iran where they destroy each other.

Once they destroy each other, Saudi River can come up on top. Now, Israel

cannot be destroyed because Israel has nuclear weapons. But the goal is to

nuclear weapons. But the goal is to negotiate a peace with Israel after the war is over. Right? Does it make sense?

To split the Middle East between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

But will Israel agree to this deal?

Probably not. But according to game theory, Saudi Arabia has no choice in this matter because it is so far behind everyone else. Okay? You can only hope

everyone else. Okay? You can only hope that this chaos leads to new possibilities because given the structure of the game so far, it does not have a very good future. Okay, does

that make sense? All right, any more questions guys?

All right. Okay, great questions. So,

please continue to follow the war. Okay,

so you have to follow the war and understand what's going on. And in this class, what I'm doing is I'm providing you the game theory analysis for you to understand what's happening and why it's

happening and where this war is going.

Okay? Again, the three big predictions I make um and we'll know in the next year or two if these things three things happen or not is the United States will send in ground troops. It has no choice in the

ground troops. It has no choice in the matter if it wants to win this war or continue this war. There will be no nuclear weapons being used. Again, I

will apologize to the world if new glorins are are used. Okay. The third is that the Alexic mosque will be destroyed at some point and it's something I will talk about next