Game Theory #20: Mid-Term Examination

Today is our midterm examination. A

chance for you to question and examine me. All right. So before we look at the

me. All right. So before we look at the questions for the midterm examination, I want to discuss briefly the ceasefire between United States and Iran. So

yesterday um Donald Trump announced that there will be a two-week pause to this war and that the United States in Iran

will meet in Pakistan to negotiate a possible long-term ceasefire. And what

he said that's very important is that he will use the 10point Iranian plan as a framework

to discuss a peace treaty. And as you can see from the 10point plan, in fact um this is almost a complete US

surrender to Iran. The first point is that the United

Iran. The first point is that the United States will guarantee never to attack Iran again.

Um Iran will have complete control over the shumus.

Iran can choose to enrich uranium for its nuclear program.

All sanctions on Iran will be removed.

This is a very big deal.

um removal of all secondary sanctions against foreign entities that do business with Iran and of and of all United Nations

Security Council resolutions against Iran and of all international Atomic Energy Agency resolutions.

Compensation reparations for all the damage that United States and Israel did to Iran.

withdrawal of US combat forces from the Middle East, giving Iran control over the Middle East. Now, last and the most

important is that United States will also agree to end hostilities against all of um Iran's proxies

including Hezbollah and the Houthies in Yemen. So, as you can see, this is

Yemen. So, as you can see, this is basically a complete US surrender to Iran, which tells us right right away

that Donald Trump is not serious.

If you go into a shop and you negotiate with a with a shop owner and you want to sell maybe a book to the guy and you're

hoping for $100, but because it's bargaining, you think, "Oh, um, maybe I should start high." So, you say $1,000.

If you say $1,000 and the shop owner says, "Yeah, go. Yeah, I'll take that deal."

deal." There's something wrong here. Okay. All

right. So, there's something very wrong.

And there's very little chance that the ceasefire will hold. And in fact, we're already seeing news that this ceasefire is being broken. Okay. So, there are

three uh individuals on Twitter who've made some very interesting points. All

right. So in this tweet uh Mr. Bojac said that listen um if this is really a ceasefire why is United States continue to send aircraft

carriers the USS George Bush to the Middle East? What they're really trying

Middle East? What they're really trying to do is buy time in order for the ground troops to get ready to attack and

seize the strait. Okay. So once

everything is in position then probably what will happen is that Israel will launch a false flag against the Americans which will justify an American

attack against Iran. Right? So that's a possible scenario. But again the

possible scenario. But again the question is if this is really a ceasefire, if Donald Trump is really intent on peace, why does he continue to send US forces to the Middle East?

That's question number one. Question

number two is the problem is how the how Iran is defending itself. It's using

something called the Mosiac defense which is say that there's 31 provinces and these are 31 cells or units that are

all responsible for their own strategy and attack and defense. Meaning that

there's no longer a centralized command.

So it doesn't matter if you negotiate with the leadership of Iran because the IRGC, the people who are fighting will not

agree to a ceasefire because they do not trust the Americans or the Israelis.

So whatever happens in Pakistan will not affect the outcome of the battlefield.

That's a problem with the Mosak defense.

Think of the Mosak defense as almost a dead man switch where if you kill the Ayatollah, the Ayatollah will tell his people to fight to the end. So the most defense will only come to an end if

either Iran is defeated or the Americans are defeated. This thing collapses if

are defeated. This thing collapses if there's in between a ceasefire because in order for the Iranians to implement a

ceasefire, they themselves will have to go and control these Mosak units in the provinces, which basically means a civil

war. Okay? So it's almost impossible

war. Okay? So it's almost impossible even if Iran were to negotiate a favorable peace deal for Iran to actually implement this peace deal within its military. Okay, that's

problem number two. Problem number three is the United States continues to have an airbridge to the Middle East.

So even though there's a ceasefire, you have these massive movement of US ground troops, of US planes, of US artillery

and tanks to the Middle East.

So if there's really a peace, why is this happening? And another way of

this happening? And another way of saying this is that the political systems of both United States and Iran

have lost control over the war. Once

these militaries start fighting, they are determined to fight to the bitter end. Okay. But unfortunately,

end. Okay. But unfortunately,

um, what this tells me, the fact that Iran is willing to negotiate a peace treaty probably means that there's a schism or divide between the political leadership

in Iran and the military leadership in Iran. And this is going to cause a lot

Iran. And this is going to cause a lot of problems in the future. So maybe

before this past month, it seemed as though that Iran had control over the battlefield and Iran was winning winning it. But I think over time,

it. But I think over time, what's going to happen is that fissures will arise in Iran and Iran will start losing the battle more and more as the

United States and Israel develop a much more coherent strategy against Iran.

Another major issue is that as this war drags on, the world economy is going to suffer, which means that people can no longer drive their cars and which means

maybe a lot of people will also starve.

And this means that ultimately public or global opinion will slowly turn against Iran.

Okay? and even Iran's closest allies, Russia and China will feel the strain of this war and maybe even pressure Iran to end this war. But again, as we discussed

previously, because of the way that Iran has structured its military defense, it is impossible for Iran to end this war

unless it's either destroyed or it's destroyed the Americans. Okay. So, this

war um this ceasefire, it's only a PR stunt. It will actually lead to nothing.

stunt. It will actually lead to nothing.

All right.

The major um point, okay, of contention is whether or not Lebanon is part of the peace treaty. So the the

Iranians believe that this peace treaty also includes its proxies specifically in Lebanon and the Houthies in in Yemen.

But after this peace treaty was announced, Israel launched more than 100 strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon killing 250 people at least 250 people.

Okay. So

Iran is obligated to defend Hezbollah morally. Um and Israel understands that

morally. Um and Israel understands that if Iran breaks the peace treaty and defense has uh then it is Iran's fault.

Okay. And the Americans have come out and said that well you know we agreed that Lebanon was not part of the deal.

Um and uh JD Vance the um vice president said oh it's a legitimate misunderstanding.

We thought that Hezbollah wasn't part of this deal, but the Iranians thought it was. Okay, so this is misunderstanding.

was. Okay, so this is misunderstanding.

Okay, but this tells you that uh the Americans and Israel release are not serious about maintaining the ceasefire.

Okay, they've already found a loophole.

All right. Okay. So, let's now go on to the midterm examination.

And um as I said um YouTube can ask me questions and I will try my best to answer them. So uh this uh Twitter

answer them. So uh this uh Twitter account RS app did a very nice thing and basically analyze all 8,000 plus

questions and broke it down into some major categories. All right. So what

major categories. All right. So what

what I'm going to do first is I will look at these questions and then answer them. All right. and and then we'll look

them. All right. and and then we'll look at some other questions. All right. So

the first question is all right I said that the empire is declining but at the same time the US could benefit from this war. How do I reconcile the

war. How do I reconcile the contradiction? And the answer is um is

contradiction? And the answer is um is that really a contradiction? United

States is extremely powerful. It's

really a question of who benefits from these changes. So even though the US

these changes. So even though the US empire will lose control over the Middle East, the the America American uh nation can still exert control over Mexico and Canada. Okay, this something I will

Canada. Okay, this something I will discuss later on. That's number one.

What's the role of esquetology um in shipping global events? How do you account for the influence of six societies? All right, so these are the

societies? All right, so these are the same question and I I'll answer it right now. All right, so let's examine how all

now. All right, so let's examine how all this works. All right. So, first thing

this works. All right. So, first thing you you need to understand is that history moves

in a certain direction. Okay, it's very complicated. It's very messy. But there

complicated. It's very messy. But there

is a structure and a pattern to the movement of history.

Okay, a structure and a pattern. So, think of a river.

Okay, when you see a river current, you think, I can't see anything. It's just

going to be chaos. But if you if you're able to read the river well, you know how the river is moving. Okay? So you

can position your canoe or k in a way that allows you to seamlessly smoothly cross the river. All right? So that's

the idea. Okay? But this is all very chaotic. So what so what happens is that

chaotic. So what so what happens is that there are certain individuals we can call them occultists who try to read the river or try to read historical patterns in history and they

create something called in esquetology.

Okay. So think of the stars when you try to read the stars and try to find meaning of stars. We call this astrology. Right? But when you try to

astrology. Right? But when you try to read human history and you try to find a pattern in human history, we can call this esquetology.

And the thing about the esque esquetology is that it's a story.

And so you want the story to work out.

So it's both a prophecy as well as a plan.

You think it's going to happen, but you also think that you are obligated to make it happen as well. Okay. So the

occultists, these are religious people, they try to turn the chaotic movement of history into a story that comes to an

end and which you can participate in.

All right. Okay.

Then from these occultists are form secret societies in order to understand this esquetology and also also to promote this esquetology.

Now what happens is that powerful people, okay, powerful people, the rich and the powerful,

they join these societies. Why? Because

as a rich and powerful person, you want to know how history moves in order to better position yourself in order to protect your power and your wealth.

Okay, that that's why very famous people they often have astrologers to work for them and that's why rich and powerful people join secret societies because they want access to this secrets that

tells them how to uh make better investments and how to have more political power. Also, secret societies

political power. Also, secret societies enable them to create networks in order to maintain their power. Okay. But the

problem is that you need people to actually move towards the ending to propel this esquetology. And these

people we can call um agents. Okay.

Agents.

And these agents of course include Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Okay. And this is how the world works.

where the occultists are the ones who imagine the world and the rich and powerful are the ones who act out the world in order to better themselves and

then they appoint certain agents who are like puppets in order to move the world in a certain direction. Okay,

so these agents are like vectors.

All right, but there's certain problems with this system.

The first problem is that there are different societies and they fight amongst themselves to achieve different esquetologies. Okay. The other problem

esquetologies. Okay. The other problem is that the rich and powerful will often switch secret societies, switch loyalties in order to maximize their benefit. So they don't have any

benefit. So they don't have any loyalties.

All right. And then the last problem is that these agents like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, they seem like puppets, but they themselves believe they are

using these secretities to achieve their own vision which is given to them by God.

Okay. So, it's a very complicated system and this is why no one thinks that it's all grand conspiracy because each person is doing

his his or her own part subconsciously to maximize his or her benefit. Okay?

So, it's not a top- down system. It's a

much more dynamic fluid game than people um assume. Okay? So this is a map that

um assume. Okay? So this is a map that helps us understand how the world works and this is why I'm able to figure out what's happening in the moon east

because if you're able to focus on the story okay the story here you basically know where people are going even though you may not be aware of what the

different secret societies are doing and how the different agents are thinking.

Okay. As long as you're able to figure out their cultist, how they're thinking, you figure you're able to figure out the story that they want to tell the world, you can basically figure out the general

direction of the world in the long term.

Okay. All right. So now what I want to talk about is China. What is China and and what is China going to do? All

right. So again let's go back to our theory of how the world works of how the world is structured. You have the empire and then from the empire you have the

game masters.

Okay the people in finance.

Then they create the global economy.

Then this creates the rule space in actual order.

And then you have the um education system, media and culture in order to indoctrinate people to

believe in the system that the system is fair, right and natural. Okay. And then

you have parasitic organizations, science crime intelligence to control the system but also to draw

benefit to extract value from the system. Now what we understand is that

system. Now what we understand is that the beauty of the system is that is capable of extending itself and replicating itself

in other societies. Okay. So the two examples are the GCC and China.

Okay, this is really important for us to appreciate. China is not a civilization.

appreciate. China is not a civilization.

China is not a nation state. China is a construct of empire. Okay. China is what the system has done is basically taken

all its elements and embedded itself into China to create a vassal state.

Okay? Or you can also say a mirage.

And then you're like, okay, well, what what does that mean? Well, just think of the GCC where before the empire, the GCC was just a desert and the empire, the

system takes the GCC and turns it into this seemingly vibrant cosmopolitan wealthy center. And then they bring in

wealthy center. And then they bring in the universities, right, like Georgetown, NYU, they bring in um culture, they bring in the media

ecosystem. So this system replicates

ecosystem. So this system replicates replicates itself into the GCC as well as China. Now this is important because

as China. Now this is important because the moment that this system is under strain, okay, for example, Iran attacks

it, we see it's all just a mirage. This

system is not sustainable. It collapses

onto itself because it doesn't have a civilization. It doesn't have an

civilization. It doesn't have an existing soul. Okay? It's all just

existing soul. Okay? It's all just appearance. And what I believe is that

appearance. And what I believe is that China is in a very similar situation.

That's why China was allowed to join WTO. That's why Chinese so many Chinese

WTO. That's why Chinese so many Chinese students go overseas to become educated.

Okay. To create this mirage that China is this modern flourished economy.

So um that this is China's relationship to the world. So rather than believe that China is competitor to the system, we need to appreciate that China is

really an extension of the system. So if

this system comes under strain, China itself comes under strain. That's why

China is so desperate, so anxious to see peace in the Middle East again. Okay. So

there's there are rumors there's news reporting that China has has ex exerted pressure on Iran to negotiate a ceasefire because if the global economy

collapses, China is in a lot of trouble.

All right. Okay.

Okay. So

um what are long-term implications of the Hollywood Pentagon complex?

Okay. And

um the answer is if you go back to the system, okay, no one actually knows what's going on, but they believe they know what's going on and they believe

their individual parts of the story.

Okay? So if you're in culture, you think you're the ones in control and you're the one dictating policy. If you're in the media, you think you're the ones in control. If you're in education, you

control. If you're in education, you think you're in control. Okay? So

everyone just basically lives in his own bubble in in his own fantasy world without being able to see the bigger picture. And that's why we don't have

picture. And that's why we don't have control and agency and free will over how the system will turn out. Okay? And

we cannot because it's actually very difficult for us to really appreciate um how the system works. It's much

easier for us to believe in our fantasies because it allows us to work with our friends and our colleagues much easier. Okay? It's much easier for

easier. Okay? It's much easier for people to live in his own bubble and to be delusional than it is for the person to be objective. Okay?

So the Hollywood Pentagon complex, it is not just unique to America. It is true for everyone. How do emerging powers

for everyone. How do emerging powers like China um factor in the predict shifts in global order? I already told you that all these things that you believe are alternatives including digital currency, renewables, China.

They're all just projections, extensions of the system. The system is under strain, these are under strain as well.

Okay. What strategies can individuals employ to navigate potential global economic civil and resource scarcity?

Okay. So the problem is that individuals by themselves cannot navigate change.

Individuals need to enter into communities. Okay?

So if you really want to survive the change, well first of all you need to educate yourself as to what's going on.

And that's why I teach these classes to give you the bigger picture as to how the world works and where things are going. But you also need to make need to

going. But you also need to make need to make a commitment to reach out to other people, become their friends, be generous and open with them, share with them and build a community.

Okay. Also, one thing that I I would recommend is maybe starting a family.

And the reason and you're like, okay, wait a minute here. This is silly because you have said for the longest time, the world is collapsing. This is

the end of the world. Why would you have children?

And the answer is because first of all death doesn't matter. Destruction

doesn't really matter. What matters is our ability in this world to live a creative, purposeful, significant life.

Okay? That's why we're here. It's not

it's not to make a million dollars. It's

not to um eat a lot of food. It's to

have the best experience possible to extend the imagination of the universe.

And what I found having children, I have three kids, is that I live every day with tremendous energy and purpose

because I'm here not to be become famous or to make a lot of money. I'm here to make sure that my kids have are happy and healthy and that's why I get up in the morning and work very hard. Okay? I

don't really care about the world. All I

care about is are my kids happy and healthy. So children and family give you

healthy. So children and family give you a energy, a purpose, uh a meaning that drives you to greater creative heights.

Okay. All right.

What are the primary drivers behind specific geopolitical actions and how do these motivates interact with a game theory for? Okay. All right. So again,

theory for? Okay. All right. So again,

this is a really important theory to understand where the occultists are the main drivers. Why? be the occultists

main drivers. Why? be the occultists whether it be poets or prophets. They're

the ones who imagine the world we live in. Okay? And we can and others can only

in. Okay? And we can and others can only work within the boundaries of this imagination.

So yes, the rich and the powerful, they have all the money and all the wealth, but they don't have an imagination.

So, and ultimately your actions have to be driven by your thoughts. And it's

these a cultist, okay, who drive your thoughts, who control your thoughts. So,

we just live in the world imagined by a cultist. Who they are, what they want,

cultist. Who they are, what they want, how they how they um work is something that we'll discuss after the break.

Okay? After today, we're going to on a oneweek break for the midterms and we'll come back. We'll start more we'll talk

come back. We'll start more we'll talk more about these people, the cultist.

Okay? They're very important people to talk about. All right? So, let's move

talk about. All right? So, let's move on.

Okay, now I want I want to look at some individual questions. All right, so this

individual questions. All right, so this is Joyce Lei from um Substack. She's a

founding member. So, thank you Joyce for your generosity. Okay. Um she asked this

your generosity. Okay. Um she asked this question.

You make three predictions about the outcome of the US Iran war, but I don't have any time frames. Yeah, I don't do time frames because these things are

trends. Okay, they're general movements.

trends. Okay, they're general movements.

Okay, and she says, well, if all three come true, then then we have to believe that it may not be because of the war itself. How do you differentiate between

itself. How do you differentiate between causation and correlation? Okay, this is a great question and this is something that I think a lot about. So, I make these predictions um in order to

validate my prediction model, but just because these predictions turn out to be correct does not validate my prediction model 100%. Okay? And that's why it's

model 100%. Okay? And that's why it's important to keep an open mind and to continue to make predictions. Now, what

I will say is this. When I first started making predictions two years ago, I was just looking at patterns and then trying to figure out what patterns were the

most salient or the most obvious. And

then I made those predictions and I was fairly confident about these predictions. Now that I'm famous, now

predictions. Now that I'm famous, now that people are demanding I make predictions every day, it's hard for me to make accurate predictions because I don't have access to all the information

and it's hard for me to um think clearly objectively because I know that whatever I say is have an impact on global events. Okay, so this is a major

events. Okay, so this is a major constraint on my capacity to make accurate predictions. I am no longer an

accurate predictions. I am no longer an observer, I'm a player. Okay. And I also get a lot of influence from other people who want to control my predictions. I

understand that. So I try to keep away from people as much as possible. But um

it's an impossible thing. So I so I appreciate this question. Yes,

correlation and causation are two different things altogether. Um it's

possible that we'll never really understand causation. The other thing

understand causation. The other thing that I I want to um emphasize is that I I myself appreciate the limitations

to my own objectivity. Okay. Because of

my status today. Okay. So that's from Joyce. Um isn't pump and every

Joyce. Um isn't pump and every politician just a puppet of the societies? This is a great question.

societies? This is a great question.

It's something that that I addressed earlier which is yes they are agents.

They can only be agents but at the same time the agents have agency. The agents

have free will. So think of Napoleon and Julius Caesar who and they were obviously um supported by secret societies but they reach a certain point

where they can betray the secret society or vear off in a different direction.

And Hitler and Stalin are also different examples. Okay. So every great person in

examples. Okay. So every great person in history, most of them are supported by secret societies, but they also reach a point where they feel they have a higher calling and is God that they must be

loyal to. So they betray their um secret

loyal to. So they betray their um secret society. And I think that something

society. And I think that something something will happen with both Trump and Vladimir Putin. Okay,

I have the third Rome. I have the American technate and I have Pachida.

Wait a minute here. These are three different empires. And the reality is

different empires. And the reality is that this unipolar moment where America controls everything, it is unique in human history. It's not sustainable and

human history. It's not sustainable and it will not last. So the idea of competing empires, it's much more common in human history. So yes, you'll have the technate where America retreats into

greater North America. Russia exerts

control over uh its territory and Israel tries to build a pax judica in the Middle East and they will they will be in competition against each other.

There'll be some areas in which they cooperate. There are some areas in which

cooperate. There are some areas in which they compete and so we are moving towards a multipolar world. Okay? And we

don't actually even know how long this multipolar world will sustain itself.

probably not very long. Maybe 10 years, maybe 20 years. Okay.

All right.

So, this question is um why would the world be dependent on American fertilizers, energy when the other parts

of the world have um energy and fertilizers as well? And

the answer is trade access. Okay.

What America can do that other nations cannot do is basically retreat into its continental fortress

and control sea trade. Okay. So right

now the easiest way to trade is through the sea. And unfortunately for the world

the sea. And unfortunately for the world America controls the seas with its navies. Okay. So what America can do is

navies. Okay. So what America can do is basically allow its ships to go anywhere in the world and block Chinese, Iranian, Russian ships from accessing the rest of

the world. Now a counter to this is that

the world. Now a counter to this is that well you know you don't have to go by sea. Um if you were to unite Europe,

sea. Um if you were to unite Europe, Asia and Africa and the Middle East, you can just use railways and that's what China wants to do. The problem is Iran.

That's why America is so invested in destroying Iran because Iran is really the pivot of the world. If you can destroy Iran, it'll be very hard for

China to access Belton Road um and hard for Russia to trade with Africa. Okay.

All right. I would challenge Professor J on his assessment of why Russia attacked Ukraine. Um Russia was not prepared for

Ukraine. Um Russia was not prepared for the long war and it adapted. Okay. Um

yeah. So the general theory, the general explanation is that NATO provoked Russia into an attack. And that's true to a certain

attack. And that's true to a certain extent, but we have to remember that if you commit to a long war, if you commit to any war, you need to have a long-term

strategy because you need so many different organizations, institutions, parties involved in a war. Okay? A war

means a fundamental restructuring of society. And therefore you need a grand

society. And therefore you need a grand strategy. You need a esquetology.

strategy. You need a esquetology.

Okay? Because this is what allows for political will.

And that's the issue that the Americans are facing in Iran where they don't really have um an esquetology or grand strategy uh that's articulated. Okay.

There are people in America who do have the grand strategy in esot esquetology but it's not articulated to the American people. Okay. And that's why America

people. Okay. And that's why America doesn't really have the political will to sustain this war in Iran. So again it there's there's this misconception that

these these people Putin Trump they just work. They just have these emotions like

work. They just have these emotions like I want to go attack. So they go attack.

That's not how these things work. Okay?

You need a lot of people to agree to attack Ukraine, to attack to agree to attack Iran before these things happen.

Okay? The the idea that one man can control an entire country, it is just a myth. It cannot happen that way. A

myth. It cannot happen that way. A

country is controlled by different vested interests, different institutions. These institutions have to

institutions. These institutions have to align together in order for something to happen. Okay? Otherwise, they'll just

happen. Okay? Otherwise, they'll just sit back and do nothing. And that's a situation that um Iran faced in the leadup to this war where everyone was like, you know, the Americans, you know,

the Israelis are going to attack you, so take the initiative. Why are you still sitting around doing nothing? And the

answer is because there are different factions, their different institutions cannot align together on how to respond to the Americans and Israel. So they

just sat back and wait to be attacked.

Okay. All right.

Um, why don't Asian and Middle Eastern nations unite to prevent American in interference driven by its own interest?

Okay. Um, yeah.

Okay. Another misconception is that the nation state it is real. It is not real. It's just a madeup concept. Okay. The idea of China,

madeup concept. Okay. The idea of China, the idea of America, the idea of Russia, Iran, they're all madeup concept. They

don't exist. What these nation states are are a collection of interests.

Collection of elite interests and all this means is that the people don't matter. Okay, the people are

don't matter. Okay, the people are resource exploited by the elite. What

matters is the elite. So the question then is where are the elite? Where are

their allegiances? Where are their loyalties? The fact of the matter is

loyalties? The fact of the matter is that in East Asia, in the Middle East, mo much of the elite have their family and have their wealth

all stored in the western world. So

they're not loyal to the people. They

are never loyal to the people. They're

loyal to themselves, to their families, to the to their social network. And

because all of their wealth and family is located overseas, they're loyal to overseas. So these elite in Asia, in the

overseas. So these elite in Asia, in the Middle East, they are basically carbon baggers. Okay? And and and that's why we

baggers. Okay? And and and that's why we have this um situation. And that's why um as things progress, nations that have very close relationships with the

Western world, for example, the GCC, they are much likely to fall. They're

much likely to collapse because these are these are very unstable countries.

Whereas um countries like Iran that have been isolated, ostracized by the west are much more cohesive. Okay.

All right.

Can the straight of moose be avoided by laying gaps pipe through Oman? No. No.

That's not how these things work. Okay.

What Iran is doing is using circle moves to blockade the global economy to disrup the global economy. The circle moves is the most convenient way of doing so. It

is the least controversial but if forced to Iran can also destroy any energy production in the GCC. It can destroy

the pipelines. If a drone can attack a

the pipelines. If a drone can attack a um city, it can attack a pipeline as well. Okay, so these pipelines are

well. Okay, so these pipelines are extremely vulnerable and and already we're seeing reporting that just yesterday the Iranians attacked a pipeline in Saudi Arabia. These

pipelines are extremely vulnerable. Just

think about all this gas and oil, right?

It's all combustible. So a drone can just blow it up. It's not hard, right?

So again, understand the point is not the hummus. The point is the

the hummus. The point is the vulnerability and the fragility of the global economy that is completely dependent on cheap access to energy.

That's where the problem lies. All

right.

All right.

Donald Trump, he's erratic. Do you

believe this behavior is calculated strategy? Um or does it stem from lack

strategy? Um or does it stem from lack of understanding? Is he just stupid?

of understanding? Is he just stupid?

Do you think that people advising him are also stupid or are they strategic?

What is he trying to achieve? Okay,

again um this go goes back to our understanding of how the world works.

You have the esquetology, then you have the secret societies, then you have the agents. Okay, and Trump is an agent.

agents. Okay, and Trump is an agent.

Now, what makes him a very powerful agent is his unpredict predictability.

Today he's like, I'm gonna nuke Iran.

Tomorrow he's like, let's have peace in the world, guys. Okay, he's just unpredictable. It's all a show. Okay.

unpredictable. It's all a show. Okay.

And there are three reasons why unpredictability is so powerful. The

first reason is that it's um paralyzing.

Paralyzing just means like you don't know how to respond to him. Like what do you do to how how do you fight a guy who changes his his opinion every single

day? Okay, it paralyzes you into into uh

day? Okay, it paralyzes you into into uh an action. Second is distracting

an action. Second is distracting you. All your attention is focused on

you. All your attention is focused on his antics and you don't realize that behind the scenes things are happening.

Okay, there are people who are implementing certain things, but you don't really notice the backstage because you're just focused on Trump being a clown on stage. Okay, and the

last advantage is flexibility, which is say that he is not beholden to any strategy and he can change his strategy at any

time. Okay. So, yes, we think he's a

time. Okay. So, yes, we think he's a clown and he is a clown, but there's a method to his madness. Okay. So, it

paralyzes enemies. It distracts his enemies and he's able to maintain maximum flexibility in his actions.

Okay. That's why he's so successful.

All right. Um the people around him just do whatever he tells him to. People

around just tell him tells him exactly what he wants to hear. Okay. It's it's

actually Donald Trump that's making all the all the decisions and his ultimate purpose is to get his third term.

All right? Because from his pers perspective, if he actually wants to implement his vision for America, he needs the third term. Okay? And again,

his vision is a technate where America becomes a fortress, abandons the world, and just trades with the world. Okay? We

we discussed this previously. But for

him for him to achieve that, he needs his third term. And so he needs to figure out how to get his third term.

And this war in Iran is the best strategy because if this war continues and it goes badly for America, then uh Trump can declare martial law and have a

lot of powers. Okay? And again, his en his enemies are too distracted to appreciate that this is strategic and they're paralyzed into an action. the

Democratic party, which should be opposing Trump and this war, are just sitting back and doing nothing, hoping that in the midterms, uh, Trump Trump's party, the Republicans get wiped out and

they get they go into power and then the world is perfect again. Okay. So, the

Democrats actually don't have a strategy for this.

All right.

Um the GCC the petro dollar collapses okay let's pretend the petro dollar collapses AI collapses treasury bond collapses will the US not suffer an economic and

development catastrophe which is not which is not part of the US plans yeah this is a good question but you have to understand again a nation state is a collection of different interests and these interests are competing against

each other okay so you have different interest groups you have um AI you have finance ants you have resources.

Okay.

And so what matters is the general direction of the country. So if the economy were to collapse, the main losers would be finance and AI. Okay.

But then what America can do because it's so wealthy and it's people are so energetic is well let's just focus on building resources. Okay. Oil, food, um

building resources. Okay. Oil, food, um water, fertilizer. let's just make this

water, fertilizer. let's just make this stuff and sell it to the world. Then the

economy um uh rebounds. Okay, so this is actually a restructuring.

Okay, something we talked about before where the purpose is not to destroy America. The purpose is to move power

America. The purpose is to move power away from one elite to another elite.

Okay, this is basically a revolution in America. AI can actually be saved. Okay,

America. AI can actually be saved. Okay,

uh with government bailout and that's what I imagine will happen.

Okay, AI and finance the bubbles will burst. Finance will be allowed to

burst. Finance will be allowed to collapse. AI will be bailed out because

collapse. AI will be bailed out because Trump is very close with these AI overlords like Peter Theo and Sen Alman.

And then resources will be resource manufacturing, okay, will become the dominant center of gravity in the American economy. Okay, so that that's a

American economy. Okay, so that that's a that's a plan. I'm not saying this will happen exactly like this, but that's what they have they they intend to

happen. All right.

happen. All right.

Um, transial capital is a game master.

Um, transational capital will then take its money elsewhere if the empire collapses.

So, transial capital doesn't lose any power and they can just bet on different horses. Japan, is Germany.

horses. Japan, is Germany.

Um, okay. Yeah. So

in my analysis I use abstract terms that are not accurate but some but are useful for simplicity and clarity. Okay.

So you're writing that transnational capital also have competing interests and just because the empire empire collapses doesn't mean that all the money goes to Israel. This money will

spread out and that's true. Okay. But

the point the point I'm trying to make is that first of all, most of the money will go to Israel. Why? Because Israel

provides the best short-term investment opportunities if you're a trillionaire.

Okay? But you're right in that other money will go to other places as well.

But again, the best opportunity is Israel. So you will see the most growth

Israel. So you will see the most growth in Israel. And that's why over time more

in Israel. And that's why over time more capital will shift towards Israel.

That's how capital works. Okay. Yes,

capital will um allocate its resources.

Capital will uh put its um eggs in different baskets, but ultimately you have to ask yourself where is the best investment opportunity and in the short term, not in the long term, but in the

short term, it's going to be the Middle East. Okay. All right.

East. Okay. All right.

How do we combat the war against truth?

How do we engage in discussion that transitional biases? Okay. Um, we all we

transitional biases? Okay. Um, we all we all live in fantasies. How do we overcome this? What techniques do you

overcome this? What techniques do you employ in your research? All right.

Okay. So, um, things I do that I think are very important is first of all, doubt.

You always want to question yourself.

You always want to ask yourself, am I correct? That's why making predictions

correct? That's why making predictions is important because making predictions it's actually about creating doubt in yourself because if the predictions are wrong it's a mechanism for you to

self-reflect and appreciate the limitations of your model. Okay, so

that's one strategy. Another strategy is debate.

Okay, where you engage in people who think differently than you do. And I do that by watching a lot of YouTube videos. And I try to try to watch people

videos. And I try to try to watch people of different political leanings, who have different viewpoints than I, because I'm interested in hearing their perspective. Okay? So, keep an open

perspective. Okay? So, keep an open mind. Engage in people who disagree with

mind. Engage in people who disagree with you and have an honest debate with them as well as yourself. Now, the last piece, and this is actually something that I do, but most people don't do, is

I use my imagination.

And all this means is I will go places.

I will make certain assumptions that other people don't do. Okay, that that's why I think people find me so interesting because I will say things that are imaginative that are

speculative but which is not backed up by any evidence. Don't be afraid to do that. Okay. If you want to seek the

that. Okay. If you want to seek the truth, you have to make some imaginative leaps. into leaps into the unknown in

leaps. into leaps into the unknown in order to um find the truth. Okay, the

truth is not in front of you. The truth

is often behind you or far away from you. Okay, so you need to be you don't

you. Okay, so you need to be you don't be afraid to just leap far, okay, into the unknown. All right.

the unknown. All right.

All right, let's continue.

Okay, so Asia and Australia are suffering the most from this global conflict. Why are

these nations passive?

Um won't these nations intervene?

Okay again um a lot of this is misconception in that everyone thinks that the nation states are the constituent uh players in this game and the nation states are all

equal. They're not equal. They're not

equal. They're not equal. They're not

nation states. There only certain nation states that have the capacity to project force overseas. Russia, America, maybe

force overseas. Russia, America, maybe some European countries. Australia,

uh, Asia and most European countries are just vassal states. They they are not capable of playing this game. They're

only capable of obeying. Okay? Maybe

over time they will change attitude and develop the capacity to play this game.

But you have to remember that like the GCC, a lot of these European countries, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, they're all co-opted by the CIA. Okay? These are all American

CIA. Okay? These are all American national vassel states. And so they're not capable of acting independently of American policy. There's the illusion

American policy. There's the illusion that they are independent, but they're not. Okay? And you can tell because of

not. Okay? And you can tell because of their actions in that you're absolutely right in that. Okay, if you're Australia and you don't have any more jet fuel,

well then you should send your army or negotiate with Americans or negotiate with Iranians. But they're not doing

with Iranians. But they're not doing that. Okay. Japan is in fact negotiating

that. Okay. Japan is in fact negotiating with Iran, but Japan is still vassal state of America. Pakistan

America. Pakistan is the mediator for uh this ceasefire talk between America and Iran.

But guess what? Pakistan is also just another vassal state. Okay, they pretend pretend not to be but just be but by their actions you know that they are in

fact vassal states. All right. Okay.

Um civil war breaks out. Who's going to win? Uh Christian nationalist Silicon

win? Uh Christian nationalist Silicon Valley versus the Oman Wall Street. a

city versus country like conflict do you believe it will result in separation of union into multiple factions okay so if you look at the history of the Roman republic once a civil war starts it

almost never ends okay that's just the nature of American society where America is so vast and people are so energetic and ambitious that once the civil war

starts it's very unlikely that it will ever stop. Okay, maybe maybe the intensity will shift over time but uh

you will have civil war for the next few hundred years. Okay, and the question

hundred years. Okay, and the question then is who triumphs? Okay. So, if you just use our game theory formula, okay, of cohesion,

energy, and openness, and you ask yourself, okay, let's just look at American society and ask yourself, which state

has all three? The answer is Texas.

Okay?

And this is pretty clear. If you just look at the 50 states and which state is the most dynamic, which is the most um energetic, the most open-minded, it's

going to be Texas. California, New York are going to suffer in the civil war.

The economies will suffer a great deal.

The sides will suffer a great deal.

Texas will emerge as a clear winner in any conflict. Okay? And with um uh

any conflict. Okay? And with um uh Texas, you also have Christian nationalists and AI. Okay. Why Christian nationalist?

and AI. Okay. Why Christian nationalist?

Because Christian nationalist is actually a coherent philosophy.

It's coherent. It it has a direction. It

has a strategy. It has a purpose. Okay.

Okay. So I think Christian nationalists will also win out and then AI will win out because um AI can provide the technological support to Christian

nationalists. Okay. So if you are

nationalists. Okay. So if you are working in Texas, if you live in Texas and if you work in AI and you're a Christian nationalist, well, you're

going to be a big winner of this civil war. Okay? I mean, if you if you if

war. Okay? I mean, if you if you if you're the opposite, okay? If you are maybe living in New York or California and you work and you are maybe an

atheist and you I don't know work in arts, I don't know. Well, you're going to be a clear loser in this war. Okay.

Often these uh what's called professional managerial elite professional man managerial elite living

the coast. These guys are done. Okay.

the coast. These guys are done. Okay.

completely useless, cost too much money, contributes nothing to society. These

guys are just done. All right.

All right.

How does an individual survive for what's coming? Family and community,

what's coming? Family and community, guys. Okay. Forget the fact that you are

guys. Okay. Forget the fact that you are an individual. Leave that behind. You

an individual. Leave that behind. You

will not survive as an individual. I

don't care how much money you have. I

don't care um how prepared you are. You might have a B bunker. I don't know. I don't care.

Okay. But you have to focus on family community if you are to survive the new world. All right.

world. All right.

All right. Do you think Iran should have nuclear weapons?

No.

The worst thing Iran can do at this point is develop a nuclear weapon. Iran

can at most have 10 nuclear weapons.

America has a thousand. There's one way for Iran to lose this war really quickly and it's to threaten America with a nuclear weapon because that gives America justification to um use it

nuclear arsenal. Okay. But the other

nuclear arsenal. Okay. But the other problem and this is actually more more important problem is the idea of complacency where if you think you have nuclear weapons or sorry if you have nuclear

weapons you think you're I'm safe. I

don't have to worry about anything.

No no no.

It's much better to be creative and resilient and open-minded. Okay? So if

you don't have nuclear weapons, you're always under threat, right? that forces

forces your people in your society to constantly think about how to be strategic.

All right. So nuclear weapons is a bad thing. It's not a good thing.

thing. It's not a good thing.

All right. Paka

doesn't Saudi Arabia see that coming?

Why would they allow that to happen?

Well because um for Saudi Arabia, what matters is first defeating Iran. Because the the strategy is I defeat Iran, then I'm I'm

master of the of the Muslim world. So I

can unite the all the two billion Muslims in the world behind me to defeat Israel. Okay. So from a perspective of

Israel. Okay. So from a perspective of the GC and Saudi Arabia, uh Iran is a much bigger threat than Israel. Um why

have hasn't the GC anything about what has happened in uh Palestine and Lebanon? The GCC are quote vassel states

Lebanon? The GCC are quote vassel states of America. All right. just it's not

of America. All right. just it's not it's not hard. These are all run by the CIA.

Um if Trump is a genius, why do you authorize the insane and stupid film mission to steal uranium uranium? Iranian uranium. Okay. All

uranium? Iranian uranium. Okay. All

right. This is a really good question and the answer is this. Trump is a genius at politics. He's a genius at screwing over his enemies and

accumulating power for himself. He is

not a military genius. Okay?

He's a Trump is a genius at um controlling his base.

Trump is a genius at being a TV star.

He's not a genius at geopolitics.

Okay? These things the these things don't have to be the same. All right?

How can Israel sustain a global empire um when their religious leaders view the physical destruction of their own cities as a spiritual victory?

Um okay, it's not that hard to rebuild an economy and a city. It's not okay. What is hard

though is to develop the spiritual cohesion of a people to make them believe in something so that they're willing to die for it. Okay, that's what matters. All right, destroying a city

matters. All right, destroying a city you can rebuild in 5 years time. It's

not that hard. Just hire the Chinese to do it. Okay, a nuclear taboos. Um

do it. Okay, a nuclear taboos. Um

why would they respect a rational escalation ladder to avoid using nudes?

Okay, that's a really good question. If

these people are religious and they're fanatical and they're crazy, why do they care about nukes? And the answer is they don't care about nukes. They they think this world is fake. Okay, but the

problem is that nuclear weapons, there are institutional constraints and restraints on the use of nuclear weapons. Okay, so there's this myth that

weapons. Okay, so there's this myth that Donald Trump can just press one bit button and all the nukes will go flying.

That's not how it works. Okay, there are lots of subtle constraints on the president. Okay, he has to go get the

president. Okay, he has to go get the nuclear football. Then someone has to

nuclear football. Then someone has to open for him and then he can press a button.

But if people think Donald Trump is crazy, I guarantee you that nuclear football guy is going to run away. Okay,

there's so many taboos against the use of nuclear weapons. Again I keep on saying this but if nuclear weapons are used in this war we are completely

screwed. Okay I don't think nuclear

screwed. Okay I don't think nuclear weapons will be used in this war. All

right if mass organization are the primary cause of imperial decay where unlimited population unlimited land so reasons the US techn will succeed.

Um okay all right look um I I said the US technate is a plan. I didn't say it would it would succeed. Yes, I

understand America can take over all of North America. It can occupy Canada. It

North America. It can occupy Canada. It

can occupy Mexico, Cuba. But when it does that, it's going to create a lot of insurgencies. It's going to create a lot

insurgencies. It's going to create a lot of conflict. So, um it it will be a

of conflict. So, um it it will be a dumpster fire. Okay? Just because you

dumpster fire. Okay? Just because you are able to accomplish it doesn't mean you should accomplish it. Doesn't mean

it doesn't mean it'll be successful. Uh

immigration trap. Why is conforming the rules and working hard consider playing the game wrong? If high confidence require resilience in the coming era of

resource scarcity. Um

resource scarcity. Um um look if the game is fair you want to conform to rules and you want to work

hard but if there's an elite that is parasitic that is rent seeeking then by working hard you're just transferring

your energy to the elite. Okay. So

before maybe 20 20 years ago, America was a place that was very fair and so if you just worked hard uh and played by rules, you would succeed. This is no longer true where

succeed. This is no longer true where it's basically an oligarchy and where a few people control all the u power.

Okay.

All right.

Iranians are growing less religious.

Um and so as this war becomes as this war continues the framework of Shia modern will energize Iranians become more cohesive and the answer is yes. One

outcome this war uh that we should expect is that Iranian society becomes much more religious much more fanatical.

All right and one reason is that the Americans are intent on destroying Iranian urban centers like Tran. Okay.

So the Americans and the Israelis are bombing railway networks that connect Iran uh Tran to the countryside and so Tran might not have access to food which

case um Tran might disappear as a city.

In that case when people are in desperate need they turn to religion as to for comfort. Okay. And then they have this escological drive. So yes we can

expect uh Iran to become much more esqueological as this war continues.

Okay, the US implements a draft.

Generation Z refuses.

Um, you have a civil war. Then where's

the US military going to get its soldiers?

Okay, that's a good question. And the

answer is illegal immigrants. Okay,

there about 28 million illegal immigrants in America.

um they can be arrested and they can be conscripted. Okay, so that's a solution

conscripted. Okay, so that's a solution to this problem because as he points out, young people are not going to fight in this war because it's suicidal. All

right, what if you can make cheap drones? Okay.

So, so I say, you know, the way to counter cheap drones is with a ground invasion. But America, America can make

invasion. But America, America can make even cheaper drones than um wouldn't that solve the problem?

And yeah, so the answer is this.

We become too obsessed with technology. We think that technology can solve all the problems. And what you don't understand, what

people don't appreciate is that technology is built on people. Okay?

Technology is meant to compleimement people, to enhance the skills of people.

Technology is not designed to replace people. That's the issue that America is

people. That's the issue that America is facing this war where America thinks that by using sophisticated air defense, by using uh super carriers, by using

fighter jets that are stealth, we can reduce civilian casualties and win the war. And it's turning out not to be the

war. And it's turning out not to be the case. Why? Because people are much more

case. Why? Because people are much more creative, much more resilient, and much more determined than technology. Okay?

So if you have a group of people together, they're going to figure they're always going to figure out a way to defeat your technology.

Uh so imagine this, okay? You build a robot and this robot is invincible.

Lots of machine guns, uh nighttime vision, 360 vision. Okay,

if I fight this robot one to one, I'm dead, right? But I'm I'm a human being.

dead, right? But I'm I'm a human being.

I'm not stupid. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to lure this robot into a dark forest or a cave where the robot's going to stumble and where I can maybe

throw a rock or pour water on it. Okay?

But, but because um technology it's static, people are dynamic and creative, okay,

and spontaneous.

So that's what makes people people so wonderful because we humans we're dynamic. We're creative. We're

dynamic. We're creative. We're

spontaneous. We're not afraid to die for what for what we believe in. A robot is just going to do what a robot's going to do. So it's completely predictable. We

do. So it's completely predictable. We

are not predictable. Okay? That's why if you insist on using technology and drones as your main military strategy, you will lose this war. You have to

commit your people to total war. You

have to find people who are willing to die for what they believe in and then you'll win this war. And that's why I believe that ultimately America will will lose this war in Iran because the American people don't have the global

will to fight this war. I don't care how much money you put in this war. You're

going to spend hundred trillion dollars.

I don't care. I don't care how much technology you have. You're still going to lose this war unless you're able to galvanize the patriotism and political

will of your people. Okay.

All right.

Israel be humbled.

Doesn't that not change Pax Judeica?

Okay. All right. Okay. So, Pax Judeica and Israel are not the same thing.

Pax Judea is a project of transnational capital. So, think of Israel as the

capital. So, think of Israel as the host, Pax Judeica as the parasite. Okay?

And the same thing happened in America where at the end of the 19th century you have all this transational capital coming into America through Wall Street and through um uh manufacturing the

economy. They were able to control

economy. They were able to control America for the Federal Reserve. Okay.

So transnational capital is the parasite. America is the host. So in

parasite. America is the host. So in

this situation, Israel is the host and Patria will be the parasite or transnational capital. Okay. So it

transnational capital. Okay. So it

doesn't matter what happens to Israel.

They can bomb Israel to smiththerines.

Doesn't matter. Who cares? Because

transational capital can come into the region, hire Chinese, Filipinos, Indians to rebuild Israel. Okay.

Um, is the war going to transfer the transfer accept transfer wealth from the old to the young in the US or worsen it?

Okay. Yeah, this is an excellent question. This is a a really a key

question. This is a a really a key question if you really understand geopolitics. The answer is as this war

geopolitics. The answer is as this war continues, as chaos um continues throughout the world, more money will be

transferred to the old than to the young. Okay? So all this inequalities, this generational inequality that we're seeing in America will worsen. And the reason why is that

will worsen. And the reason why is that in a time of chaos, in a time of conflict okay capital

um always triumphs. Okay. And the reason why is that capital is able to foresee risk

to um uh distribute risk properly and take advantage of risk. Okay. If I have trillion dollars, it's almost impossible

for me to lose my money and I can make more money. Okay? So imagine a situation

more money. Okay? So imagine a situation where, okay, I have $2. I'll invest a billion in America, a billion in Iran, a billion in Israel. I can't possibly lose this war. Okay? But you have like a

this war. Okay? But you have like a $1,000, I guarantee you, you're going to lose all your money. And the reality right now is that the old um not all the old, but a minority of the old, the

oligarchy have all the capital, and young have nothing. Okay? So it's the young who will give up all their money to the old and the young who will be asked to die in the Middle East so that

the old can maintain their power. Okay.

And that's a historical pattern.

Um AI okay civil war AI Republicans finance Democrats.

Um, okay.

Absolutely correct in that these categories are not that simple.

It's a very fluid situation where AI is going to bet on both Democrats and Republicans. Finance is going to bet

Republicans. Finance is going to bet both on um Republicans and Democrats.

But for the sake of my analysis, I create these categories so that I can project into the future. I can

extrapolate into the future. But you're

absolutely right in that these categories are problematic. Okay.

All right.

America's plan is to weaken the global economy by letting the war drag on. Um,

if the US wants if Iran wants the US to leave the why how can Israel still achieve its plan?

Um, okay. First question. Is America

trying to slowly weaken the global economy by letting the war drag on? Uh,

and the answer is it's not intentional, but it's a consequence. Meaning, America

can suffer the consequence of the collapse of the global economy because America is self-sufficient and can it can always retreat back into its fortress. It's the global economy that

fortress. It's the global economy that will that will suffer. So it will seem in hindsight that America had this planet all along when in reality it's just because no matter what America

does, it always wins. Okay, that's a benefit of being America. No matter what you what happens, you always win. All

right. Um Iran wants us to leave. But

then how can Israel achieve the greater Israel project? And the answer is Israel

Israel project? And the answer is Israel will not let the US leave. Okay.

Um I I mean Israel right now is a parasite. US is is a host. Once US

parasite. US is is a host. Once US

leaves, Israel becomes a host. Pax da

transational capital becomes a parasite.

Okay. So there's no way the US is going to leave the GCC region. Um

will the two weeks CR hold? Um

no. Okay. No. Forget the ceasefire. It's

all theater. it and like think about who who is negotiating a ceasefire. You have

J Kushner and you have CIO. The same two guys that screw up the negotiations which led to this war in Oman. Okay. And

then where where is this taking place?

It's taking place in Pakistan which is a vassal state of the United States. So

these negotiations will go nowhere. All

right.

How do you fit variables and general human unpredictability in your game theory model? Um, yeah, that's a really

theory model? Um, yeah, that's a really good question. Okay, the answer is I

good question. Okay, the answer is I don't use math.

It's impossible to mo to model random human behavior. It's just impossible.

human behavior. It's just impossible.

Maybe maybe if if I had like a million years of data, I could do that. But I

can't do that. I have like a few hundred years of data. So, I don't even use math. I know it's game theory. I know

math. I know it's game theory. I know

you and I and I know supposed to use math but but I'll be constrained by math. Okay. So I I use a lot of

math. Okay. So I I use a lot of intuition. I use a lot of doubt. I use a

intuition. I use a lot of doubt. I use a lot of debate. Okay. So doubt, debate, imagination. Um how would

imagination. Um how would Okay. So Israel is a prize state. How

Okay. So Israel is a prize state. How

can they achieve peska? Okay. Okay. So

this is confusing for people but like public opinion does not matter in geopolitics.

Rome was this genocidal state. No one

cared. It didn't care. It still became the empire lasted for a thousand years.

Okay? Even today, we still worship Rome.

The Aztecs were known for human sacrifice. Didn't matter. They still

sacrifice. Didn't matter. They still

became the empire of Mexico. Uh the

British, the British h they created all these wars in Europe. They enslaved the Indian population and destroyed their

economy and stole tranz from them. They

addicted Chinese to opium. Do we ever talk about this? I mean like if we had opinion poll back in the 1850s, I think most of the world would be like the British Empire is evil.

They're genocidal.

We still worship the British Empire today. Okay. So public opinion does not

today. Okay. So public opinion does not matter. We've come to this delusion that

matter. We've come to this delusion that our opinions matter in geopolitics. It

doesn't matter in geopolitics. What

matters is power. Okay.

Oh, that's it, guys. Wow. Oh, well.

Okay. All right. We did it, guys. We we

we did the midterm. Okay. So, hopefully

I did well on this midterm. We're also

have a final examination. Um, so I look forward to that. But thank you for the questions and uh we will take a oneweek break next week and then we'll come back

and continue um game theory and our analysis of the US Iran war. So um any questions?

Yeah. So

okay.

So uh I have like two main questions and Vincent also sent me some of his questions like uh so uh my first

question is about the global economy like in your previous discussion you argue that the US centric global economy system would collapse after the Iraq war leading to the remilitarization of

various nations and severely disrupt disrupting the global trade. However,

why a new like global economic system created uh on one or few countries will not be well would not like uh emerge because even though this system should

uh would inevitably create significant inequality among the countries, it would still bring substantial wealth and econom economic benefits to participating nations. Why create uh

participating nations. Why create uh which I think will create motivation for these country building.

Okay.

Uh yeah. And uh historically after the age of explorations, I think the collapse of each imperial systems lead to the rise of the new uh empires. For

example, the Spanish maritimes collapse and the British empire gradually replaced and after the world war and two the American became the empire and that

replaced the British like so why won't this happen again?

Okay. Okay. So the basis of the of the global economy is the US dollar. Okay.

So what is the US dollar? The US dollar is basically a contract system.

Okay. So when I use US dollar basically it's a contract that our trade will be honored. Okay. Right. But with contract

honored. Okay. Right. But with contract system you also need need an enforcement mechanism.

Okay? Meaning, look,

if you don't if you don't honor the contract, then someone has to come beat you up, right? Otherwise, you'll just ignore the contract. So, that's what the

US military is for.

All right.

Now, there are certain problems with this system. The first problem is that

this system. The first problem is that it's actually very costly to create a contract system. Okay? Why?

Because you are absorbing all the risk.

Okay? So you're the US economy. You

print US dollars to enable the world to trade with each other. Okay? But when

you do that, you are collecting a tax.

But at the same time, it's putting tremendous strain on your economy.

Okay because this leads to finan financialization which is just risk and speculation.

Okay. So all this excess money is being created around the world and you have to absorb it into your economy which causes inflation which causes things to be

unaffordable to your people. All right,

so that's the first problem. Okay, it's

really expensive on the population. The

population in America must absorb the cost of access liquidity in the world.

Okay, does that make sense? Okay, the

second problem is the military.

The military must be willing to fight any wars around the world at any time.

Okay. So the question then is are there is there any nation in the world besides America that's one willing to absorb the cost of creating a contract system being

the global reserve currency and number two that's willing to fight a war to enforce this mechanism anytime anywhere

in the world and the answer is no hell no okay this system is it is unbelievable that America agreed

to the system in the first place and and most Americans would say, well, we just got stuck with this system and certain people benefited from the system, but most people don't actually benefit from the system. So, the idea that anyone is

the system. So, the idea that anyone is going to come and said, oh, you know, we'll just take over the system, whether it be Russia or China, that's just okay? No one's going to no

okay? No one's going to no one's going to replace America. So, the

global economy is is just going to fracture because again, no one's willing to to accept the cost to be the global reserve currency. It's just too

reserve currency. It's just too expensive.

Does that make sense?

Yeah.

Okay. But so uh uh why why cannot like some regional powerful country like Japan and German as you mentioned before or American like they form into a group

that well together build a global economic systems

because ultimately you have to resolve the issue of um uh benefit. Okay.

Okay. Like we have to negotiate who benefits.

Okay. Doesn't make sense.

Yeah.

And it's hard for nation states to figure that out. It's much easier to have an empire. It's much easier for me to impose my power on to you. But for us to like work together peacefully, maybe

for a couple years, okay? But it's very unsustainable.

All right? Because why? Because of

domestic concerns. which your population will want to maximize the benefit from this relationship.

Okay.

Yeah.

And uh so uh my second question is about the uh the the the value of the the the culture of the world. Uh as we discussed

before this world today is highly materialistics with money and the pursuit of material possessions becoming the main driving forces in society. and

uh in your vision of the in the future believe that people will place greater emphasize on religion and spiritual life. But how exactly will this

life. But how exactly will this transformation occur? Because um if this

transformation occur? Because um if this will occur through like war or suffering then uh as in history we go through like war one and war many people die and many

tragedy happen. But it seems that this

tragedy happen. But it seems that this value this materialistic value doesn't change because that's what what we have today.

Okay. So I didn't say everyone will experience this transformation. What I'm

saying is that those who undergo the transformation will most likely survive the coming world collapse. Okay? So you

can choose like I I want to be materialistic. You can do that and most

materialistic. You can do that and most people will choose to continue to want to be materialistic but they won't survive. Okay? And those who do undergo

survive. Okay? And those who do undergo the transformation will survive. And why

do they undergo the transformation?

Because they see the world collapsing around them and they and they are looking for comfort. They're looking for a story. They're looking for an

a story. They're looking for an explanation. And so they turn to

explanation. And so they turn to religion. Okay? Does that make sense?

religion. Okay? Does that make sense?

Okay. And the reality is that look in the coming 50 years of all this chaos and war I would say 90% of humanity will be wiped out and a lot of these people will be because they refuse to adapt to

the new world. They refuse to believe that a new world is coming and they should prepare for it. Okay. They refuse

to change their minds. Okay. Any more

questions?

Uh yeah. Uh I have some question of like you want me to ask?

Uh maybe two. Okay.

Okay. Yeah. Uh the first is like he he he had some question about our uh ours as an individuals in this world.

He said that if our efforts are defined based on the consequ consequentialism of secret society and other definitions, what is the significance of our efforts?

Is isn't it still exacerbating the secret society? Do we have a way to

secret society? Do we have a way to define our own value? Can or can we only live in the eye of others? Yeah, it's

absolutely pointless to worry about societies. It's absolutely pointless to

societies. It's absolutely pointless to worry about others. What you can do is live your life to the best of your ability. Okay? You can be uh focused on

ability. Okay? You can be uh focused on learning, on developing yourself spiritually and intellectually and emotionally. You can be focused on

emotionally. You can be focused on reading books, on asking questions.

Okay? And if you do that, you'll be fine. So stop worrying about secret

fine. So stop worrying about secret societies, stop worrying about the end of the world and just focus on your own personal transformation. Okay.

personal transformation. Okay.

All right. One more question is uh related to the uh Chinese student uh he me he said that how do you think Chinese students who are currently studying in

the United States will be perceived in the future while Chinese people discriminate against us uh US American students in the future.

Look, the reality is that the age of globalization is over. The idea that Chinese students learn English, hop on a plane, go to America, study for four

years, and come back and get a good job, that era is over. And quite honestly, I'll be honest with you, I don't even know why Chinese students do this in the

first place. Okay. Um, again, I think a

first place. Okay. Um, again, I think a lot of it has to do do with the fact that China is not a real nation state.

It's just a projection.

mirage created by the global economy.

Um, but I mean I mean Chinese students now are focused on getting the degree in America. It's

just a piece of paper. Chinese students

don't care enough about an education about learning. Okay, that's that's a

about learning. Okay, that's that's a great myth about Chinese students in this world where Chinese students are the best in the world because Chinese students love learning and are disciplined. That's not true. Chinese

disciplined. That's not true. Chinese

students are extremely um extrinsically motivated. They care

about the grades. They care about the degree. Once you take that away from

degree. Once you take that away from Chinese students, Chinese students don't even know what to do. They play video games every day. They just sit around and do nothing. Okay? So, if Chinese students are to thrive in the future,

they need to learn passion. They need to learn interesting motivation. They need

to love learning for itself.

All right. Okay. All right. So, that is it. Thank you for the midterm. Um, and I

it. Thank you for the midterm. Um, and I will see everyone the week after. Okay,

so we're taking a break next week.