Geo-Strategy #8: The Iran Trap

okay let's start class so um let us summarize and review where we are so far

in the story so um there are three major interest forces that are pushing the United States towards war with

Iran um the first is the Israel Lobby remember that the Israel Lobby is composed of both Jew Jewish interest as

well as Christian interests right representing the Jewish interest is something called APAC uh and they have a membership of

about a 100,000 but they're very wealthy there are many billionaires in this group so

this group has Financial power in fact APAC is considered the second most powerful lobbying organization in in the

United States the first is um the pensioners okay there's about 30 million of them um and their lobbying organization is the most powerful but APAC is second but also in the Israel

Lobby are the Christian Zionist right so for example the organization uh Christians United for Israel has 7 million

people um in its membership so together the Christian Zionist and APAC um are extremely powerful force in government

and they want a war in the middle ease in order to advance Israel's

interest also remember that America is now addicted to Empire because Empire

represents easy money all money has to be uh channeled through the US and so there are many people in the US who just make make basically make

their money by speculating on money okay so for example Wall Street and that has made Wall Street extremely powerful uh right now in US

politics and the third um force is Saudi Arabia um remember that in our discussion of Saudi Arabia we learned that the major conflict in the Middle

East is actually not between Israel and Iran but between Saudi Arabia and Iran for Israel Iran is a security

threat because it it supports hasah and Hamas but for Saudi Arabia um Iran represents a threat to its very existance okay so Saudi Arabia

must resolve the Iran problem soon right now how these three forces manifest themselves is uh through

Trump okay so basically Trump is their champion and privately um there's a man named Jared

Kushner who is Trump's son-in-law he's married to um Trump's fa daughter um

Ivanka Trump okay and Char Jerry Kushner happens to be very good friends with both Benjamin

nanyu who is of Israel as well as Muhammad bin Salon who was the leader of Saudi Arabia now uh Jer kushner's father

tus Kushner was a very prominent uh sponsor of APAC in fact when Benjamin Nan yahu comes to State United States he

lives with the kushna family so one night uh Benjamin natany had to stay in Jer crusher's bedroom and Jer kusher had to sleep in the in the uh basement okay

that's how close they are and Jared Kushner is friendly with MBS the leader of Saudi Arabia so friendly that when Jer Kushner started a private Equity

Fund Saudi Arabia invested two billion dollars okay so through jar Kushner uh these three forces are able to exert influence on Trump as we also discussed

it's very likely that Trump will become president of the United States again um um in November and he will pick Nikki

Haley as his VP and that means that Nikki Hy will be the one in the Trump White House pushing

for war against um Iran as we discussed uh niiki heli makes most of her money from the um Israel Lobby okay the anti-iran

lobby we know from the first Trump Administration that these forces are able to exert tremendous influence on

Trump okay and the evidence is one Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal that would have secured peace between United

States and Iran okay Trump moved the United States Embassy from T aiv to

Jerusalem in Israel which um was a major um which caused major friction in

the Middle East okay we also know that um Trump ignore the fact that NBS killed a

journalist okay so we also know that Trump um has been very friendly with Saudi Arabia we also know that Trump sponsored the Abraham Accords which is

trying to bring peace between Israel and other Arab countries and unite them against Iran okay the last thing that Trump did which is the most important is

that in January 2020 Trump ordered the assassination of General Kasam salamani who who is the leader of the Revolutionary sorry who is the leader of

the Iranian Refuge guards okay so from all this we can suspect that a second in a second Trump term uh war with Iran will be a major

priority so is this clear so far all right now we also discussed that okay even though there are there are these forces that

want war with Iran ultimately it is the US military that must implement this war and if the US military refuses to go to war then

the war can't happen so we discussed that unfortunately the US military is very different from what it was 30 years ago okay 30 years ago

the US military maintain very standard military Doctrine okay they maintain three very important principles that all militaries must maintain in a time of

war the first is mass forces uh B is um avoid encirclement

right and the third is protect supply lines now the the important idea is that when you fight a war like this okay which is

traditional Warfare you must have the consent of the public okay because it is the public that sends soldiers that

provides money that gives you political support but in 2003 the US military changed its mil Doctrine to one of shock

and all okay and what shock and all means is that you don't have to follow these three principles anymore you can use ear

Supremacy um you you also have technological omniscience and you also have special forces and this allows you to fight Wars

cheaply quickly and decisively so that you no longer need public political support for fighting Wars and as we also discussed this created the idea of

hubris in the American Military so the American Military because of the 2003 uh war in Iraq are clothin that can win any War

any place against any enemy we know that this Doctrine is actually not true and we know because of

something called operation Prosperity Guardian okay so um a few months ago The Who

which are a rebel group in in Yemen they started to attack ships in the Red Sea okay um and a lot of trade goes through

the Red Sea so the American Military dispatched a massive Naval Force against the houthis were the Americans able to defeat the

houthis no they were not and so what the what what what are the Americans going to do about it what can they do about the houthis what's what's the solution to

this problem you have these Pirates houthis going around and attacking these uh ships which is affecting um International Commerce and that's why inflation is such a huge problem right

now in the world so what are the what's American Military going to do about this what can they do about this the answer is nothing okay the

American Military has no solution why because they don't have the forces necessary in order to undertake an operation against the houthis they have

special forces they have Air Supremacy they have technological omnicient satellites but they don't have infantry they don't have lots and lots of ships

therefore they cannot stop the houthis okay and what's willing point is that Joe Biden has come out and said that yes

we know we are losing the war in the Red Sea and yes we know that we cannot stop the houthis but we are going to continue on this

path okay does that make sense this is the idea of hubris not knowing your limitations and when when you are faced with your

limitations you refuse to accept your limitations okay and that's why when the US military is given the order to invade Iran they'll probably go along with it

because they cannot imagine the possibility that they could be defeated in

Iran okay and then you have the Iran revolutionary uh core okay the re rol

guard and as we discussed last class they want war with the United States because um they're very angry about us interference in Iran right so during the

Sha regime which was a brutal police state from 1953 and 19779 the Americans were the ones who were backing this police

state so there are many who are who are angry about this they're also um angry about the fact that the US continues to

protect protect Israel and Saudi Arabia okay and they're also angry about the fact that that Trump killed J general salamini okay um and as we discussed

it's possible that uh the rary guard Corps killed last week the president of

Iran Ibraham Ry in or because um he was preventing War okay so they want war with the United States so you see the

map right you you see the logic of this where there are power forces United States pushing the United States towards War you have Trump who has basically

agreed in its first term to raise or increase escalation with Iran within the Trump White House there be Jared Kushner and Niki heli to push this war both

privately and publicly the US military um has so much huis that they think they can win this war and Iran

wants to provoke the United States into invading it okay United St Iran can have many and for so Iran has many many um

strategies in order to provoke the United States into war okay basically United States is looking for a reason and Iran wants to give them a reason and that's why I think war between United

States and Iran is very likely in the next two to four years okay any questions so far are we clear about where we are so far be before I I move on

any questions okay so now let's talk about the actual War so here most of this is speculation okay but um I'm

using speculation in order to help us better understand what a war would look like okay so let's pretend that it's

March 2027 okay and Trump go on TV he

announces operation Iranian Freedom a fullscale US invasion of Iran along with

Israel Saudi Arabia as its main Partners but United Kingdom UK will be involved Australia will be involved UAE will be involved Poland will be

involved okay so you have many countries attacking um Iran together and Trump goes on TV and explains to the American public why the United States is fighting

this war okay and this is what Trump says first he says that for the past year there have been violent protests in

Iran you have religious protests you have political protests you have ethnic protests the Iranian people are sick of the Ayatollah they are sick of the

dictatorship they want democracy they want want freedom and response the reg guard are killing thousands of

protesters Iran is on the brink of Civil War therefore the United States has an obligation to protect the people of Iran okay the

people of Iran are praying for freedom and democracy in the United States the world's greatest democracy must give them democracy okay so the first reason

is free freedom and democracy second us intelligence along with Israeli intelligence have discovered

that for the past two years Iran has been working very very hard on

developing a nuclear bomb in fact Iran is only one month away from having three nuclear

bombs so that New York City San Francisco and Los Angeles at Los Angeles could all be destroyed okay so to prevent this we

must strike first to stop Iran's nuclear program okay third Iranian proxies the houthis hollah

many groups have been disrupting shipping in the Middle East in both the Red Sea and the sh of hus 40% of the world's oil passes

through that region mainly to East Asia China Japan South Korea our Global Prosperity is at stake

we must go to war to protect these shipping lanes and ensure that the oil goes to China Japan and South Korea so that they can continue their economic

Prosperity so the United States as the world hedgemon has a responsibility to protect Global Prosperity

okay four Iran has been launching attacks against our allies Saudi Arabia and

Israel hesah has been violent attacking Israel killing dozens of Israelis in a and Israelis the huies have been attacking

Saudi Arabia oil fields damaging the economy we have an obligation to protect our allies our friends in the Middle East

okay and the last reason is we know for a fact that the Iranian ref guard Corp is a sponsor of

terrorism last week in a mall there were gunmen who went and killed 107 people our intelligence says that it

was most definitely an Iranian operation okay so for these five

reasons we have decided to invade Iran but don't worry this Invasion will be

successful because we have a lot of allies the UK Israel Saudi Arabia our friends we part of this

operation our special forces are already in the country looking for their air bases and their missiles we can knock them out at

the beginning of the war also we have been in contact with Iranian opposition groups they want to overthrow the regime

and when we help them they will install democracy in the country our American Military is the greatest in the

world in 1991 our military defeated Saddam Hussein in 100 100 hours in 2003 our military defeated s

Hussein in only in less than three weeks to prove that we are the greatest in the world we will defeat Iran in only two weeks

so do not worry we will be strong in protecting democracy freedom and Global

Prosperity okay so that's what that's what Donald Trump will say to the people of the United States okay and of course you're going to have large scale

protests throughout the country opposing this war but most people in the country will support this war okay all right so after this

speech the operation is launched and on TV we'll watch this on TV and the internet together on YouTube

together okay and we'll be so impressed by the power of the US military um this is

Iran this is the straight of humus Saudi Arabia um Israel is

here Red Sea is here Iraq is here okay so in the hus comes the USS Gerald art

Ford it is a$1 13 billion super carrier okay this thing is designed to destroy countries it is now Pro

prowling the shus to ensure that shipping is safe America establishes ear Supremacy very quickly okay meaning that it has

complete control over the skies nothing can move in the skies without America uh

detection okay and then a massive Invasion force is sent to Iran in the South

100,000 US troops land maybe 200,000 Saudi Arabia troops land okay maybe you have 300,000 to half a million troops in

Iran and they are about to strike Tan in the north okay so in the South the United States and its allies have established a foothold they have a huge

presence in the country and they're about to attack Tran okay all right do you understand what what has

happened okay now I want to ask you this question at this point I think the war has been decided who has won the

war America has established Air Supremacy it controls the skies US Navy controls the Seas you have 100,000 US troops in country ready to

stri Tran the war has been decided who has won the war okay okay obviously this is a trick question obviously Iran has won the war

why why what's the problem with this plan okay this is typical American Doctrine shocking all this is how they fight Wars but there's a problem with this plan what is

it why would the Iranians want this okay let's go back to traditional military Doctrine okay in traditional military Doctrine you have three

principles right Mass forces avoid encirclement protect supply lines okay these are three three things you must

absolutely obey if you are win to war okay so using traditional mil military Doctrine explain to me why United States has lost the war right

now exactly first of all they're in circle okay do you know why because Iran are all mountains it's a fortress okay meaning that to get these

troops into the country you have to eardrop them right but guys once they're in the country you can't get them out of the country you

understand okay so that's a first problem they've been in circle right what's the second problem why not that's right and why else yeah that that that that's right

okay um so they failed to mass forces okay Iran is a population of 90 million people you will need at least 3 to four million soldiers to even think about conquering the country they've got

100,000 in this country okay and as Jack says you can't move tanks through Mountains they're not designed for Mountain Warfare what are you going to

do okay so they can't mask forces and they can't and they've been en circled and and what else is a problem and this is the biggest

problem exactly they cannot be resupplied okay they have no supply lines for them to be resupplied airplanes have to drop ammunition food

into the country but again Iran is all mountains so it's very easy for Iranians to shoot down the airplanes does that make sense when you pass through mountains you can't see what's on the

ground a guy a random guy with a rocket launcher can just shoot down the helicopter okay which is what the what the Afghans did against the Soviets in the Afghanistan war and that's why the

Soviets lost the war War a drone can take down any airplanes okay so in other

words these guys are trapped that you think they're soldiers but they're not what they really are hostages

okay does that make sense you have too many people in the country so you can't get them out of the country but you don't have enough people to actually launch a strike against tan you can't

resupply them and they've been encircled by Iranian forces all right does that make

sense okay okay now the logic of having 100,000 US troops in the country is that

once in the country all the resistance to the regime will rise up and strike against tan the Iranian Army will mut will Mutiny against the country okay

that's the hope why do we think this won't happen why won't the Iranians revolt against their government why don't they want to revolt that's right okay so Iranians

hate Americans okay remember that Iranians remember the Sha from 1953 until 1979 the shaw the American supported Shaw was running a a brutal

police state so brutal that everyone in Iran revolted against the regime okay that's number one what what why else would the Iranians not support the

Americans why that's the first reason Iran has a bad history of America what else

guys which country's next door what happened in Iraq America destroyed Iraq right from 2003 in 2011 America was there

destroying the country America said that it would bring freedom freedom democracy it would bring Prosperity it would bring wealth but instead it just destroyed the

country American soldiers were running into houses every night pointing guns at children destroying homes and arresting

men for no reason okay Iranians saw all this on TV they heard about all this from Neighbors okay so they know that if

America comes it's destroy the country not to bring freedom democracy not to bring prosperity it's to destroy the country that's why they're going to fight okay

um and another reason is that Iranians think that they belong to a great civilization so they value their freedom and Independence okay does that make sense they're not going to submit

to a foreign conqueror so um why else would the Iranians

resist okay also religion right the Iranians are Rel religious they believe that um that s America is Satan and they have

a duty a religious obligation to fight Satan okay so for many reasons there's is no way that Iran people are going to stand with America you might have a

minority but most are are going to resist okay okay so does that make sense okay any questions so far

okay so uh that's a great question why would the Americans think that thean people will rise up and the answer is

that they need to justify The Invasion does that make sense they they have to have a logical explanation for why this Invasion will succeed because

one other the criticisms against them will be like you need 4 million people to invade Iran they don't have 4 million soldiers they have at most one million soldiers okay total throughout the world uh they have about 60,000 in the

Middle East so they can't get a million soldiers so their only explanation is okay well we're going to pretend that once we invade the people of Iran will support us do you understand so it's not

based on truth but but it's it's a explanation for why the The Invasion will succeed does that make sense oh you know that's a great question okay

so that's their propaganda but do they actually believe this and the answer is um hubris okay they do believe this

because they have hubris and and again um it's hard because we're not in your position but once you're in that position where you have access to

nuclear weapons when you can kill anyone in the world when you can see everything in the world um it makes you think you're God okay and we we we remember like last

semester we were reading the Greeks the Greeks believe the worst thing is hubris because it makes you think you're God but you're not God and you're gonna get into a lot of trouble if you think

you're God okay does that make sense okay all right any more questions Okay so

um Trump says that Iran is one month from developing a nuclear bomb right America's been seeing this for the past 10 years okay you just Google this and

America's like oh Iran is only one month away from a nuclear bomb they've been saying this for the past 10 years so do you understand when Trump gives a speech there's absolutely no evidence that any

of this is true okay but this is how he'll explain the invasion okay all right and chances are that even if

tan uh possess a nuclear bomb they won't use it why not that's right um the reality is that there's only one way that America can win this war against Iran okay they can

just nuke the country and America will do that I if it has enough if it has a pre-ex okay so nuclear weapons is

something that Iran is very afraid of okay so does it make sense all right so this becomes so American soldiers are

trapped in this country okay so now the question then is wait a minute here why would America do

something so stupid as send 100,000 soldiers into the country for no reason and get them trapped okay so that's a question

and what I want to do now is make you the argument that um there are two ways that we can prove or provide evidence that this is true okay the first is historical

analysis historical analysis means that are there historical examples like this okay are there historical analogues if

there are then this could be true okay the second uh method is for Game Theory analysis why would the actors who are

rational do something as stupid as trap 100,000 American soldiers in Iran all right so we'll first do historical analysis to find Historical analoges

examples s of similar similar to this and then we'll look at Game Theory to to try to reason out the motivation of the

actors okay so let's first look at Game Theory oh sorry sorry let's first look at historical analysis okay

so the year is 415 BC okay in Athens remember that we studied faciiities the pelan war last semester

okay so so we will now discuss the pelian war the war is four the year is 415 BC and for the past um 17 years

Athens have been fighting a brutal war against Sparta okay it's a stalemate and then for whatever

reason um a man named alab alabes okay has a suggestion and his suggestion is to win the war against Sparta let's go

invade sisily and uh Nas his

opponent is like why the hell would we want to invade Sicily it's far way and alabed by this is like well because it has a lot of money and if we invade the

country we can take their money okay and it turned out by making this argument the people of Athens really support this argument okay they because the reason

why is war was costing them a lot of money and they become addicted to the Easy Money of Empire okay so they wanted to fight this war so nus has this great idea of how to

convince people not to go to war okay and what he says to the people is okay guys I know you want to fight this War I know I know you want to I know that you think this war is a good idea

but Sicily is a huge place it has a Navy therefore we need a massive Expedition Force against Syracuse and

Sicily okay we need at least 5,000 soldiers that's a lot okay because the total Athan population is about 50,000

people okay 5,000 soldiers is a lot for Athens and we need about 100 ships and the idea is nus is trying to scare

people into not agreeing to not fight okay that's the idea the Athenians say that's a great idea let's send a massive

Force against Sicily and Syracuse so the war can be can be won just like that okay shock and all so they so the problem though is

that never before in his history has Athens sent a large Expedition Force against another Power okay does that make sense when the Persians invaded

they were invading Athens Athens didn't go invade Persia so when you have S a massive Expedition Force against another country what is your number one

problem what is the thing that you must resolve for the Athenians really think about it because he had actually no experience in fighting a foreign

war okay uh so yeah so the other the enemy knows the terrain better than you do okay but there's actually a much bigger problem than that and it is

what okay the biggest problem is resupply and this is something that the aans didn't think about because they never thought they they never fought a

war like this before okay so they sent this huge Expedition against Sicily and Syracuse um which was a naval power were surprised because they were like why

would the Athenians want to invade us okay so for the first year the phans were destroying uh the Syracuse Army and the Syracuse Army had to retreat back into

their City okay and so the f is late Siege to the city the Athenians Syracuse is here the Athenians are here and the Athenians

control the sea right okay so this situation is very similar to this situation okay do you understand but then what happened was

that the Athenians couldn't resupply themselves the reason why is Syracuse had also had a navy and they could stop the aian Navy from resupplying the

Athenian troops and therefore the Athenian Army was wiped out in Sicily and this caus the Athenians to ultimately lose the war

against Sparta and it caused the Athenian Empire to collapse okay do you understand and again historians have been trying to figure out for a long time why the

Athenians would do such a stupid thing as as as to send a huge Army against Syracuse because the risk of failure here was

catastrophic okay and the only answer is well the Athenians had hubis okay they never really lost a war and they had become addicted to

Empire which is the same situation America finds itself in today okay does that make sense guys all right so this has happened before in

history when the Athenians invaded Sicily and lost to Syracuse their entire Army was wiped out in Syracuse okay because they couldn't resupply their

army does that make sense all right the second example we can look at is the Vietnam War so in in the beginning of 1960 okay

in the beginning of the decade most Americans have never heard of a country called Vietnam okay most Americans didn't know what it was didn't know where it was

okay by the end of the decade in 1969 half a million American soldiers were in the

country destroying everything okay but also getting destroyed themselves 58,000 US soldiers died in

Vietnam so the question then is how this happen why would this happen 1960 Vietnam was a distant country no one's ever heard of by by the end of the

decade half a million US soldiers were in country fighing this war against an enemy they really didn't know okay in

1971 um the Pentagon papers came out and the Pentagon papers uh was a history of America's involvement in the

Vietnam War dating back to 1950s okay and it made three major points the first point is that American leadership military leadership

has been expanding the war in Vietnam without public knowledge okay this is what we call Mission creep so maybe at first they sent some

observers to the country then they sent some advisors then trainers then soldiers okay so Mission creep slowly over time um things escalate and you don't

understand why things escalate but they do okay second point is that American leadership from very early on knew the

war was unwinable this was the greatest military in the world they dropped more bombs in Vietnam in the

60s than all bombs were dropped in World War II okay and they could not win the war the reason why is to win a war you have to

solve three problems okay okay the first problem is playar strategy okay what are you trying to accomplish

in this country what are your clear military objectives okay second

is you must adopt to the battlefield okay because all your best plans will change over the course of battle okay so the the the adversary that is most

willing to adapt to the battlefield will win Okay the third thing is the will to fight so if you want to look at a war

and who's most likely to win the war you ask these three questions one does this guy have clear military objectives that everyone understands because that will

determine strategy okay second is is this guy a adapting to the battlefield the third is is this

guy um this does this guy still have the will to fight and if the answer is yes all three questions then the person will most likely win the war okay and if you

look at the Vietnam War even though America was killing a lot of people it killed three million Vietnamese during the course of the war

it was not destroying the enemy's will to fight in fact it was making them angrier and therefore more people people willing to fight the

Americans okay so from a very so very early on the American political leadership knew the war could not be won so then the question then is why did

America stay in the war and the answer is credibility okay credibility just means they didn't want to lose face they didn't want to be laughed at by the Chinese and by the

Soviets and by the Europeans okay but there's actually another uh way to understand credibility and it's it's what we call the

sunk cost fallacy okay have you guys heard of the sunk cost fallacy and the idea

is never ever go into a casino the reason why is that when you go to the casino you start losing money at some

point you cannot leave the casino why not exactly you want to you want to reclaim the money you've lost okay you've invested so much that you cannot

leave you have to get that money back and that's a problem with war eventually you've invested so much you cannot leave the war and that's what happened in Vietnam America invested so much it can

it didn't want to leave the war because it did not want to admit that all this um has been lost okay it's what we call the sunk cause fallacy that's

why even though America could not win the war it still want to fight the war okay does that make sense okay so the Vietnam war is another

example okay that is similar to to this where America invests enough soldiers that it refuses to leave the

war and Aid defeat okay does that make sense guys all right now let's look at one more example and this is the uh most recent example and it's the Russian

Ukraine war now as you know in February 2022 Putin ordered uh a special military operation against

Ukraine okay and uh this is Ukraine and Russia attacked from three axises okay the North to take K the

capital you have the East to take dones and then you have the south from from uh Crea to take the South okay and

as we know uh the north fail okay the north attack failed and the Russians had to turn back but the East and the South was successful okay

now let's think about this you have an extremely powerful military attacking your country the Ukraine if you were the Ukrainian president if you were the Ukrainian military there's

really only one way you can fight this war and when and what is it using traditional military Doctrine what how much you fight this war you guys

know let's go back to mass forces avoid in circle men protect supply lines how much you fight this war there's only one way you you you can fight this war excuse

me how do you disrupt supply lines there's only one way you can fight this war and win and what is it the the enemy is attacking you right so what what must you

do okay the answer is you must Retreat okay why the enem is attacking right so you pull back your forces

why would you do that what's the logic of that exactly okay it's it's as simple okay you want to overextend your enemy Ukraine is a huge country right and and

Russia didn't send send that that that many soldiers maybe 160,000 that's not that many soldiers so if you just give them space they're going to outrun the supply lines okay and then when they

outrun their supply lines you can encircle them and you can disrupt their supply and that's the only way you can win the war okay what did the ukrainians do

instead that's the only way to win this war but what did what did the ukrainians do instead which made them lose the war yeah so the ukrainians refuse to

give up give up space okay they refuse to give up land they want to fight the Russians for every inch of territory and eventually because the

Russians had more forces Mass forces they were able to push push through okay so that's the first major mistake that Ukraine made but then last

summer Ukraine launched something called a counter offensive right so once Russia was able to take space it it because and because Russia is a land Army it started

to De to develop um fortifications defenses okay mainly artillery that three lines of defenses and in the summer

offensive the Ukrainian military for whatever reason sent tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of soldiers against the this artillery and the

Russians blew every everyone up okay now here's a question why are the ukrainians doing this they've lost the war now right they

have no more soldiers right now the average age of the Ukrainian Army is about it's over 40 years old they have guys from their 60s and 70s fighting in the military they don't have enough

manpower the war is lost why would the ukrainians do do this first of all why would they fight for every inch of territory and why would they launch a counter offensive against

a superior enemy a superior enemy what's a problem okay the first

is the president zalinski the guy a TV actor okay which means that he doesn't think strategy he

just thinks what looks good on TV so for the first two years of the war we're watching this on TV right it looked as though the ukrainians were going to win this

war right it I remember like two years ago people were saying that the ukrainians are going to march to Moscow and overthrow Putin people are saying

that okay and the reason why is that zilinski is is a master of Public Image manipulation okay he was distorting

reality for people through television the problem with that though is it's not reality guys okay reality the reality on the ground is very

different from TV okay so who else is like zilinsky in this world Trump is

exactly like uh zilinski okay do you understand Trump is also concerned about what looks good on TV he's like I must look

strong we must look as though we're winning this war he doesn't really care about strategy okay so because of this

it's very likely that he orders a land invasion of Iran because it would look good on TV okay so the problem with zinsky is he cared about what looked

good as opposed to actually what actually worked okay but you also have other problems like you have extremists in the Ukrainian military

okay and guys uh these extremists they're Nazis they're neo-nazis and so um the traditional understanding of Neo of Nazis are people

who kill Jews okay but the Russians don't understand Nazis that way because because remember Germany and and the Soviet Union fought fought this

War so the Russians understood Nazis to be enemies of Russia who want to kill Russians and there were many neo-nazis

in Ukraine they hate Russia they wanted to kill as many Russians as possible okay and they're they're the ones who are pushing for as much War as possible okay so you have these

extremists in the Ukrainian military the last reason is

NATO so it's an Open Secret that NATO is helping the Ukraine Ukrainian military against Russia you have NATO military

advisors devising strategy against Russia okay so it's most likely that the summer offensive last uh last summer was a NATO plan and not a Ukrainian plan

it's possible we also know that NATO special forces are in the country directing missile strikes against Russian forces

okay which means what if if this is true and if um Ukraine loses the war meaning that

it doesn't have enough soldiers to continue to fight this war what will NATO do yeah yeah I mean according to what

happened to Vietnam War and uh the Athenians uh Expedition against Sicily it is most ly that the most likely outcome will be that NATO sends its own troops against

Russia okay so macron of France have said that we are we want to send French soldiers and the British um prime

minister has said that he is considering conscription for British people okay which means that young British uh

citizens will be drafted into the army to fight Russia all right so these are three historical examples that are very similar to what

could happen in Iran okay does that make sense guys all right any questions before I continue all right is this clear so far all

right now let's use another mode of analysis called game analysis okay and this is what I've been teaching you uh this uh semester and the idea is that

Society what happens in the real world is a game among human beings okay so so and each person is

trying to play this game as to optimize the outcome for that person okay so the question then

is why would the United States send 100,000 troops into Iran so let's look at the individual motivations of the individual players okay so you have the

United States what does the United States want to do what what what what does it want to

do by by doing one and accomplishing one it wants to top of the regime in in tran right and you can only do that for

a ground Invasion okay okay so the United States is trying to topple Iran but then you also have other actors

okay so um Iran what does Iran want to do what what does Iran want to

do or the basically the Revolutionary G Corp what do they want to do ex me they want to kill as many Americans as possible okay you understand they want to force an

American Landing Invasion okay so Iran wants to force a US invasion knowing that if the US invades it has to lose

the war okay it will lose the war because the re guard can just send suicide bombers against the United States okay now let's look at Israel okay we know that the United

States wants to top of Iran we know that Iran wants to force a US invasion to defeat the the the Americans to

humiliate the Americans and and um exact revenge for what happened in the past okay what does Israel want to do what is

is Israel's optimal outcome you guys know if you're Israel what do you want to happen Okay so you you you want Iran defeated okay and then what do you want

to happen you want Iran defeated you want the prox defeated and then what what do you want to happen do you want the United States to stay in the Middle East what happens if United States what

happens if United States and Iran both lose the war mean Iran is destroyed as a country the United States is destroyed as a military presence in the Middle East what would

happen Israel becomes the top dog in the Middle East do you understand okay Israel can now control the entire Middle East so the timal outcome for Israel is

Iran and United States are both destroyed okay you understand how about how about Saudi Arabia what is their optimal optimal outcome exactly the same as isual exactly okay

do you understand okay which will leave the Middle East to Saudi Arabia and Israel but Israel is a far superior military than Saudi Arabia okay remember like

it's very easy to blow up Saudi Arabia they have oil fields okay not that hard not that easy to blow um Israel so Israel becomes a top dog you understand game theory in other words all the major

participants want an invasion of Iran okay but they want different

outcomes and Saudi Arabia in Israel most benefit if this situation happens where you have 100,000 US troops in the country and they can't get out okay

because it becomes some cost fallacy United States can only Point more soldiers does that make sense all right so is this clear to you guys okay

you can either use historical analysis to get to this outcome but you can also use Game Theory to get to this outcome any questions so

far okay great okay so Seline asked the most pival question okay the United States has nuclear

weapons which is its ultimate trump card right so what what Trump can say to Tran is like I have 100,000 troops in country

you have to let them go or I will nuke you okay you understand Trump trump can say that listen I'm Trump I'm Donald Trump I need to look strong I have

100,000 troops in the country I can't get them out of the country so he says to Teran you either let them go okay you either gu guarantee him self safe passage out of the country or I will nuke

you right so that's what that that's what will happen that is what Donald Trump will do once the situation arises the only way for Donald Trump to

say face is to threaten tan and says you either let my my guys go or I will nuke the entire country

right so how does Tran get out of this situation how do the Iranians protect themselves against this possibility because as because you're absolutely right this is exactly what will happen

if this situation will arise Trump will respond with nuclear weapons or a threat of nuclear weapons so what must the Iranians do to protect to protect themselves against this possibility who who can help the the

Iranians now Russia okay do you understand so before this war happens Iran and Russia must come to an agreement where Putin

says from the out from from the onset no one is allowed to use nuclear weapons okay if Iran US US nuclear weapons I will nuke Iran if the United

States use use nuclear weapons I will nuke the United States if Israel use nuclear weap I will nuke Israel okay Putin if Putin says that how will the world

react if Putin says this you are not allowed to use nuclear weapons how will the world react he's a hero right he saved

Humanity but because he says this the United States is now trapped okay you understand and so this becomes

a black hole for the United States where they can only send in more troops they can't get any troops out they can only send in more

troops what's a problem with this what's the problem sending more troops no there's there's actually a huge problem with this idea of sending more troops what what is

it okay you can't like no one wants to go fight you understand the military cannot recruit soldiers all right but even if you if

you did have enough troops as Jack says you can't resupply them why why can't you actually resupply your army why

not there but there's a bigger problem than the supply lines what is it what do you need to create bullets and ammunition America has no manufacturing

capacity because America moved all its manufa capacity to China okay remember this so for every one ship that America

can build China can build 232 ships that's what the Pentagon says can do you understand so if this were to were if

this war were to happen there's absolutely no way America can win this war it's just completely

trapped inside Iran and once it becomes trapped some cost fallacy comes into play and America just puts in all its resources into the country but it's a

black hole okay they cannot use nuclear weapons because Putin I said from the from the onset you are not allowed to use nuclear weapons

right but now the question then is why would Putin do that right why would Putin involve himself in this war and that's what we'll discuss next class all

right how Putin sees this war and how Putin will react in this war okay but um before we end are there any questions about any of this does this make sense

to you guys is this clear any questions oh that's a great question yeah um so the the problem with Iraq is that Iraq

is an independent country you understand there are 10,000 American soldiers in Iraq um so you would need you would need

their their permission even if you had their permission there's a problem problem here because there are lots of Shia militia men in Iraq who are loyal

to Iraq okay and they would see the American Invasion Force as something as opportunity to attack the Americans okay because they're still anger about the

Americans for what happened in Iraq but even if they could have a staging area in Iraq they still they still have to deal with mountains okay do you

understand all right I mean the problem is you have 100,000 troops in the country you have to get out of the country okay and it's very hard to get get them out of the country if you go through the mountains you're going to

get this you're going to get ambush in the mountains if you go through the ear th those drones are going to strike you down that's that's the issue

okay right does that make sense okay any more questions okay great so uh on Friday we'll talk about Putin okay