GRAB STOCK: BUY NOW? I LIKE IT.

Unrivaled Nation, today we are looking at Grab Grab. The stock has been public for several years now and yet finally

after years of monitoring the situation, I'm finally looking at the price and saying, you know what, these fundamentals, this price, the stock

looks pretty darn compelling. And that's

why I wanted to make this video because I want your feedback on whether or not you think I should pull the trigger.

Let's go through what I'm seeing because I've talked about Grab literally for years since back when it was a spa. And

this is the first time on this journey looking at this company. And the goal with this channel is to try to find potential multibaggers. So oftent times

potential multibaggers. So oftent times that's the dance of is this a great company and how does it match with the the the price and the valuation. And so

this is the first time I'd argue where I'm looking at the fundamentals and the price and I'm saying, yeah, this is quite interesting. So if this is your first time tuning in, my name is Daniel.

You're watching Unrivaled Investing.

Let's go through the history with Grab and where we're looking today, how we're thinking about it. So I first did a video on Grabb, I believe back when it was a spa. This was in 2021 at $15 per

share or maybe it had just come out of spa. and I called it out as being too

spa. and I called it out as being too richly valued. The stock obviously

richly valued. The stock obviously significantly underperformed since then.

Then last year in 2025 when Oakree or Howard Marx's firm was buying shares, I said I can understand why smart

investors would buy it. Overall, I was turning more favorable, generally liked it, but still didn't buy it for myself.

The stock did continue to underperform since that video, losing somewhere between 10 and 20% of its value. And

this is, you know, it's getting to the point where I'm going, okay, what's going on? Is this time to buy? And I I

going on? Is this time to buy? And I I go to my free to use AI assistant, Flash. See the link below. Really any

Flash. See the link below. Really any

company in the world you can get a report on, podcast, the whole shebang.

and Flash is saying, "Yeah, this is now actually quite compelling with a negative 25 and the low case, several hundred% on the high case." My own personal assessment is actually this low

case might be too constrictive, might actually be too harsh, but you know, I welcome your feedback. I'm still the part of this video is actually the due diligence process of, you know, I'm

starting to put put together my notes and I'm looking for feedback, additional thoughts. But overall, I'd argue my own

thoughts. But overall, I'd argue my own low cases I'm looking at this is actually much higher than what the AI was suggesting. So when we're looking at

was suggesting. So when we're looking at Grab now, and you could see their fourth quarter consolidated financials, you're seeing 19% revenue growth. The dollar is

growing across their platform, whether or not it's delivery or mobility up 20% and their IBIDA margins expanding nicely. Ebida very nice. You know, this

nicely. Ebida very nice. You know, this is a company that's growing their Ibid by 54%. That's a core measure of

by 54%. That's a core measure of profitability, arguably a lot more potential improvement to come. And this

is driven in part by their mobility segment growing around 15%.

The dollars going across their platform up 20%. This is the dominant ride

up 20%. This is the dominant ride hailing platform across across Southeast Asia. And it has very attractive margins

Asia. And it has very attractive margins because you know you could see in the fourth quarter they did 325 million in revenue and they did 186 million in

Ibida. So you're talking about well over

Ibida. So you're talking about well over 50% IBIDA type margins. Management

prefers to use the more conservative approach which frankly I I kind of like which is say hey instead of talking about our IBIDA margins as a percentage of revenue it makes actually more sense

to look at it as a percentage of the GMV. This also might be a way of making

GMV. This also might be a way of making sure regulators don't try to tax you over, you know, give give you a burdensome tax because you're using the bigger denominator in this case, the the

merchant, you know, the gross merchandise value, the the dollars going across the platform versus your actual cut and then your profitability.

And then you also have deliveries where Grab is the number one food delivery platform in Southeast Asia by GMV. Uh

and you have grabbed food and then you have grabbed mart which is their grocery both are growing very quickly. Groceries

growing much faster and you can see deliveries is growing faster than mobility closer to 18%. And then you know the the the GMV growing closer to

20% plus and this is where the the margins really are showing significant improvement but arguably you could say there's also a lot more upside. You

know, just to go back a second, looking at mobility, mobility has closer to 9% margins when you look at it relative using GMV as a base, whereas deliveries,

it's closer to 2%. Now, here you you have the the driver aspect that, you know, this might this might just be a structurally lower margin business, but

over time, I think management is very clear that they're expecting improvements there. Financial services,

improvements there. Financial services, this is a little tricky. Management is

clearly using this as a growth driver.

You can see revenue fastest growing among the different segments up over 30%. It's a loan portfolio growing over

30%. It's a loan portfolio growing over 100%. And I'm a little cautious here

100%. And I'm a little cautious here because management's being, in my opinion, pretty vague about what exactly this loan portfolio is. I went through, you know, their their 10K to try to

figure out or their 20F to try to figure out what exactly it is. you know, going through their online uh website and it seems like my guess is it's some sort of working capital loans maybe for

merchants, maybe some, you know, car financing or moped financing, uh, you know, a buy now pay later consumer loan sort of thing. Either way, I mean, if

this is the growth driver for the business or one of the growth engines for the business, I'd want a lot more clarity on that because the easiest way for a company to blow up is to say,

"Hey, let's grow our loan portfolio by several hundred% and, you know, make a bunch of bad loans." I'm not saying that, you know, that they're going to do that, but I am saying that uh it's

something to watch and it's something to have ideally greater transparency from management and it's still this business this this segment is unprofitable though

management does expect that to to inlect this year I believe and then looking out for 2026 on a consolidated basis continuing 20% type of growth and that

includes that hyper growth engine in financials slower growth mobility but on a consolidated basis closer to 20% plus and showing real IBIDA improvement that

does suggest the delivery business keeps improving so saying around $700 million in adjusted IBIDA and then looking out over the next 3

years you know 26 27 28 they're saying yeah we think we can keep compounding at around 20% really incredible maybe this is a a commentary around the financial services opportunity so that would get

to around 6.9 billion in revenue and they're saying around $1.2 billion in adjusted free cash flow cuz they're saying we think we could do 1.5 billion

in Ibida and 80% conversion rate. I

think it is important for investors to pause here and reflect on the business though because when they say adjusted

free cash flow that is the cash before any sort of cash intake for deposits or any outflows in terms of loans. And

so if they really plan on leveraging or growing that financial engine very quickly and dramatically scaling up their loan book, there's a chance that

they will be on a consolidated basis a net cash outflow sort of business and needing to figure out how are they going to finance their loan book. So this is the reason why it's so important in my

opinion to get greater transparency on their financing operations.

Just to think about that.

So looking at it, looking at the valuation now, you could see currently and this is I'm I'm using enterprise value ballpark around $12 billion versus

that $1.2 billion in free cash flow that management is saying. Now that once again that free cash flow is before

their financing segment, but it is after their deliveries and mobility segment.

So 1.2 2 billion you could think of being possibly their core, you know, free cash flow and 1.2 billion versus a current

enterprise value. And this strips out

enterprise value. And this strips out several billion dollars in excess cash the company has on the balance sheet around 4 to5 billion in excess cash on the balance sheet. And so that gets you

to around 10 times the 2028 management guidance in terms of free cash flow. 10

times for a business that's growing roughly 20% a year and has dominant positions in e-mobility in delivery in Southeast Asia. So I I look at this and

Southeast Asia. So I I look at this and I'm thinking to myself, this does strike me as quite cheap. This is why I would argue finally the valuation for Grab is quite compelling. You don't have many

quite compelling. You don't have many companies with this sort of profile where you could say yeah 10 times and growing at a you know at a high clip

very high clip and a dominant position.

So that's arguably that is sort of the holy grail for finding pos you know types of companies that can go up hundreds or thousands of percent. That's

that's the goal with this channel is to try to find potential multibaggers is when you find something where it has a lot of growth and you're getting that cheap valuation that is quite

interesting and I'd argue that is what you're seeing here with Grab.

Now what is management do doing recognizing that the stock is cheap?

Well just recently they were like yeah we need to expedite a share repurchase program. we're going to buy buy back

program. we're going to buy buy back $400 million worth of stock. They're

seeing this disconnect that I'm talking about, which is share price going down, continuing to go lower over this past year since the last time I made that video, where the stock's down, you know,

10 to 25%. Yet, the fundamentals are growing 20% plus. So, yeah, management's finally saying, "I've had enough. Buy

the stock. let's let's take you know 8 to 10% of our net cash balance and buy stock because it's it's so compelling at this level. I think that's what

this level. I think that's what management is saying and we should do it quickly. We should do it over a few

quickly. We should do it over a few months. That's the that's the goal with

months. That's the that's the goal with this announced buyback. They also

announced that yeah we're we're going to be an opportunistic buyer of Delivery Heroes Food Panda segment. So this is a

food delivery business in Taiwan. This

is delivery hero segment. Delivery Hero

is a bigger delivery company.

And this is interesting. It's an

interesting deal because previously this segment was going to be acquired by Uber, but the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission said, "Nope, not going to

allow that to happen." And so now here it is. You have Grab getting to buy it

it is. You have Grab getting to buy it for a discount because previously it was closer to $900 million. Now it's closer to $600 million. and management saying look this significantly expands our

addressable market when you look at Southeast Asia the consumer food service serviceable addressable market is $200 billion throwing in Taiwan's another 40 billion so now you're you're rapidly

expanding our addressable market so that's years of potential growth and we're getting to leverage this existing platform that's similar to us so the terms once again I I should say this

does reflect an opportunistic management where they're paying they're $600 million a fraction or significant discount from what Uber previously negotiated. So this reflects you know

negotiated. So this reflects you know maybe a little bit of foreller a little bit of an opportunistic buyer stepping in and you know paying.3 times EV to the

gross merchandise value that's going across the platform and they're saying yeah it'll be immediately accreative to revenue for 2026 above you know what

what they're expecting for guidance and they're also saying that sometime by 2028 or maybe in 2028 it could add a $60 million

in incremental IBIDA. Now, that is also a super interesting data point because if you're paying 600 million in cash and you're able to get 60 million in IBIDA in just a couple of years, and keep in

mind this is expected to close in the second half of this year. So, really,

you're saying 2 years and then you're getting, you know, in in that second year you're getting 60 million on the 60 $600 million investment. you're

effectively talking about a 10% type of yield ballpark, maybe a little bit less, but either way to grab this position in Taiwan, you know, opportunistically

because you have a for seller that's looking to maybe pay down some of their debt. This is quite interesting. Uh, so

debt. This is quite interesting. Uh, so

I'd say I'm looking at some of the transactions that management's doing and I'm saying, "Yeah, this is this is quite interesting. An accelerated buyback

interesting. An accelerated buyback opportunistically buying a segment in Taiwan." Now, the segment in Taiwan

Taiwan." Now, the segment in Taiwan isn't quite perfect because unlike Grab's existing operations where you have both delivery and mobility all part

of the super app, you know, and keep in mind that that makes it easier because a driver might say, "Oh, I'm not, you know, doing the food right now. I just

want to move people around." Or, you know, "Oh, I got a food delivery." Here,

you only have it's pure food delivery.

So, that is, you know, an element for for investors to to think about. At

least that's my understanding of of how this is operating. So it's it's not quite as strong of a competitive position, let's say, as where they are with the rest of Southeast Asia. Still,

if they are able to generate the returns they're talking about, it's worthwhile.

So is Grab finally a super stock now that, you know, it's it's come under pressure for years, been in a downtrend for years, all while the fundamentals keep

improving. First of all, none of this is

improving. First of all, none of this is financial advice. Also, quick plug. Neil

financial advice. Also, quick plug. Neil

F, a premium member, wrote, "I rarely take the time to give feedback as my wife knows to all too well. However, I

wanted to make a point of saying that I'm very impressed with Unrivaled Investing." Joe R also wrote, "I have

Investing." Joe R also wrote, "I have made almost a million dollars following along with your investing journey. If

you're looking for compelling ideas, come check out Unrivaled Investing. I do

make exclusive videos for my subscribers. when I am buying. And so

subscribers. when I am buying. And so

that way if you enjoy content like this and want more of like, hey, this is the video where Daniel actually bought a stock, I am doing that. And I recently made two on stocks that I find to be

quite interesting. And I have been

quite interesting. And I have been buying arguably even cheaper than than Grab, I'd say.

And also just because I I recognize a lot of people might have had unpleasant experiences with Grab, you know, because they said, "Oh my gosh, you know, this this looks like an

amazing company. I'm super excited about

amazing company. I'm super excited about it." But they didn't do the work in

it." But they didn't do the work in terms of valuation. Or a lot of people just frankly don't have the background with valuation. Just for this week

with valuation. Just for this week alone, for my premium subscribers going through I think the end of this weekend, if you sign up and become a premium

annual subscriber, I will just email me afterwards and I will throw in the educational course on valuation uh as as

a gift uh for you if you sign up uh in the next couple of days. And once again, this is this is recognizing that, you know, a lot of people struggle with valuation in terms of, you know, putting

these pieces together. A lot of people were buying at $15, you know, and and, you know, it's it's just a critical tool if you're going to be thinking about companies. So, this is taking my

companies. So, this is taking my insights or my experience from working on Wall Street and being a C, you know, previously as CFO to try to help um, you know, what I learned in terms of

valuation. Hopefully, it can help you on

valuation. Hopefully, it can help you on your journey. So thinking about Grab in

your journey. So thinking about Grab in terms of the valuation, $423 currently around $19 billion market cap, closer to, you know, that 12 billion

enterprise value, maybe a little bit more. And so

this is, you know, the the part that I like a lot is when I'm able to look at a situation and in my low case, I'm able to pencil out a high single digits. And

in a low case that I think is a conservative appraisal.

And keep in mind, this is hypothetical.

Stock prices can go higher or lower. But

it's important to see this as a how I'm you know when when you're thinking about a business are you underwriting a scenario where you're like I would be

shocked if they don't do this and so here it is you know just as an example I'm saying around 12% growth in my low scenario management is saying 20% growth

for the next three years I'm saying around 20% margins and I'm saying a discount to the current market multip multiples around 17 18

times earnings. So I'm suggesting 5

times earnings. So I'm suggesting 5 years out that they're at around a billion dollars in earnings. Management

said by the way they're expecting to get to 1.2 billion so significantly more couple of years before this. Super

important to recognize management's guidance is way above this low scenario.

And this low scenario, thinking about the cash acrewing to shareholders, thinking about, you know, the cash they have on the balance sheet and adding all these pieces up, it gets to a high

single digits type of return.

So that's the reason why I started this video saying, "Yeah, I think it has finally gotten to the point where the valuation is compelling." Now,

that's, you know, it's one component when you're thinking about, you know, a company. You also have to look at the

company. You also have to look at the competitive dynamics. You have to think

competitive dynamics. You have to think about the durability. And so I I'm sharing all this because I would definitely love your feedback, you know, in terms of, hey, you know, should I pull the trigger? I haven't yet pulled

the trigger on this. Most of the time companies don't get to this stage. To be

honest, most of the time I'm looking at them and I'm like, you know what, the valuation isn't there. Here it is. The

valuation is there. And by the way, there's a scenario where in the base or the high case, both of which I'd argue aren't particularly aggressive, and you're talking about 20% plus type of

return. So this is why I'm very

return. So this is why I'm very intrigued looking at Grab. Now, what are some of the points that I'm also thinking about as I'm looking at it? So,

at the end of last year, Grab invested around $60 million, not a lot, in a company called Vy, Remote Driving Technology. and they have the potential

Technology. and they have the potential to invest another, let's say, $350 million. And Anthony Tan, the CEO and

million. And Anthony Tan, the CEO and co-founder of Grab, said as part of the deal, the future of mobility in Southeast Asia will be a hybrid model

that relies on the expertise of our driver partners alongside autonomous. So

I think part of the reason why he's doing this is the recognition that mobility which is their current cash cow

does face real uncertainty over the next 5 to 10 years as you have autonomous.

Now it doesn't necessarily mean the business gets fully disrupted. Driving

in Southeast Asia is very different than let's say putting a whimo on the streets in San Francisco. I recognize that.

But I do think over time, over a 5 to 10 year period, autonomous vehicles will become more prevalent and then the question of Grab being that super app

could come under pressure unless they get in front of it now and say, "Hey, you can have a human driver or you can have autonomous and maybe autonomous is

cheaper." How's that dynamic play out?

cheaper." How's that dynamic play out?

That's a unknown pile at this point.

There's no clear signs that there's no absolutely no indication right now that they're losing share. No, no, no.

They're still definitely taking share, but management's trying to make a move preemptively to say, "Hey, we're we're going to stay in front of this." Here's

another data point that also gives me pause.

So, in the last month or two, Grab bought a company called Stash.

And Stash manages around $5 billion in AUM, has over a million paying subscribers, positive IBIDA, and it's focused on helping Americans, not

Southeast Asian citizens, grow their long-term wealth. So, this is some sort

long-term wealth. So, this is some sort of financial services platform.

And, you know, management, it paid a couple the equivalent of a couple hundred million. They they first bought

hundred million. They they first bought a 50.1% stake with an enterprise value of 425 million. So overall, you know, you're you're looking at a couple hundred million investment. And

management saying, look, this is part of an evolution as a trusted international provider of financial services. And this gets back

financial services. And this gets back to my point of, well, I don't fully understand what you're investing in in your loan book and now you're making a

couple hundred million dollar investment in a company I've never heard of and you're and it's a bet on US financial

services. It just seems strange. Uh, so

services. It just seems strange. Uh, so

it's it's hard for me to go like, okay, you're this is the growth engine, but then you're buying this. I don't quite understand it. And so for the mega bulls

understand it. And so for the mega bulls that are like Daniel, you got to buy.

Please answer that question because I I want to understand in greater detail.

And then also just from a capital allocation perspective, it really turns me off to see the CEO, the co-founder, you know, yes, he owns a boatload of shares, something like 80 million

shares. you know, he's done well for

shares. you know, he's done well for himself, but you know, he's also sold a small amount

at a recent low of like 370. And so,

like, I don't get it. Like, this this guy's worth hundreds of millions of dollars, if not more, and he sold at a recent low. Like that's

you have these conflicting signals because you do this accelerated buyback.

Makes sense to me. Then you sell like a million dollar plus in stock that arguably you don't need to sell at a low point. Like I think when Amazon was

point. Like I think when Amazon was selling off, Jeff Bezos is sort of a signal just bought like a single share just to be like, look, I think the stock's cheap. I I don't think he was

stock's cheap. I I don't think he was looking to make a big move, but it was more a a signal to investors. This is

not a a good signal for investors. So,

I'm I'm still putting it all together.

I'm not really sure, you know, if I if I want to add this to my journey given some of these data points, but I I look at this and I frankly most companies aren't that compelling from a valuation

perspective. Most companies aren't

perspective. Most companies aren't compelling and growing 20%. So, that's

where I'm conflicted with Grab. I'd love

to hear your thoughts. I do think there are other companies that are let's say more profitable and growing faster that I also like and I have the very

most recently I made an exclusive video on that. But look, every investor needs

on that. But look, every investor needs to figure out what's right for their journey and I welcome your feedback on Grabb on whether or not I should make it part of my own, you know, investing

journey. And that's that's the whole

journey. And that's that's the whole purpose of this channel. It's a no hype mission focused channel. I'm not, you know, coming on the channel, oh, you got to buy this. It's going to the moon.

That's that's not who I am. What I am trying to do is I'm saying, let's let's try to together find these exceptional companies, these companies that have this potential. I'm going to call out

this potential. I'm going to call out the problems that I have that I have with it. And maybe you can tell me where

with it. And maybe you can tell me where I'm wrong. And then if you do want to

I'm wrong. And then if you do want to follow along, you know, what I am buying and selling with real-time updates, you know, near real-time updates, you know, that's for the subscribers at unrivalinvesting.com.

unrivalinvesting.com.

Thanks so much for tuning in.