Have a listen to where David Hunter thinks the markets are heading

Welcome back to Making Money Matter, ladies and gentlemen. I'm your host, Kerry Stevenson. I am delighted today to

Kerry Stevenson. I am delighted today to finally get some time with David Hunter.

He's the chief macro strategist for Contrarian Macro Advisors. He's spent a lot of time on Wall Street. He's seen

the highs, he's seen the lows, he's called it, he's uh told it's been a year, David, since you and I have spoken, which is crazy. But there we

have it. And a lot has happened uh since

have it. And a lot has happened uh since we last spoke. I mean, I'm sitting here.

We've had Venezuela, we've had Mexico, we've now got the Middle East, we've got Iran. There is so much to talk about

Iran. There is so much to talk about today because I believe that my audience out there, they're confused because at the end of the day, everybody wants the

same thing, which is not only to protect, but to potentially grow their wealth. But we are living in

wealth. But we are living in unprecedented times and there is a lot of potential social unrest, but then we've got the wars. So, I'm going to

leave it over to you to help our beautiful audience understand what they should be doing and what you think is coming.

>> Sure. Well, I will say there is certainly no shortage of skeptics out there today. Um, you know, whether it be

there today. Um, you know, whether it be looking at Iran or whether they're looking at the economy, um, looking at where oil prices are.

There's plenty of reasons for people, I guess, to get bearish and they certainly have. It's amazing to me because I, you

have. It's amazing to me because I, you know, I'm having studied behavior for a long time, sentiment for a long time.

Um, I always say it's driven by the tape. Well, the tape meaning the, you

tape. Well, the tape meaning the, you know, the how where the market is at any given point in time. [snorts] And um, you know, we've seen a three or 4%

pullback in in the stock market. and the

way the um investor is behaving, you would think it's been a 20% pullback. Uh

you hear calls every day now at least uh for you know 10 15 20% or you know we've seen the top and we're going down you know the market's going to crash all

those kind of comments. What I say is if you step back and look at, you know, what we've done really in the last five or six years, but certainly since

October of 2022, the reason we have a bull market that keeps extending, and I keep getting criticized for extending my targets, but yes, you do.

>> The reason that it it can extend is because of that phenomena. You've got,

it's amazing, you get very small sell-offs creating very big reactions that build that wall of worry back up and it allows the market to have another

leg up or or more fuel to move higher.

And I mean, this is the exact thing we're seeing right now. Obviously, we

have the war in Iran or the certainly the events in Iran uh in the Middle East that are giving people plenty of reason to be nervous and they've really reacted

to that even though uh from a geopolitical standpoint from you looking at what's taking place. The US and Israel have really they've they've taken

over the skies. They've eliminated um Israel's air force. They've eliminated

Israel. I mean, Iran's air force.

>> I was about to say Israel. No, Iran.

>> Yeah. Iran's air force and Iran's navy.

And you know that you're seeing they're still able to, you know, fire off drones and missiles, but you're seeing many less of those day by day, which means we are taking out their launchers. We are

taking out their capabilities.

I I would think in normal times people would be pretty thrilled and and say and be much more optimistic what you're hearing. Some of it probably is a result

hearing. Some of it probably is a result of what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. People are so worried about

Afghanistan. People are so worried about um something that starts out uh planning to be short short-lived turning out to

be a you know a forever war. And that's

what you keep seeing in the commentary.

And yet, if you know this president and you you um look at this particular situation, it's not anything like that.

I mean, they're they're going to be in and out here. Now, I don't know whether that means they'll be in and out in a few weeks or a couple months, but I don't think we're looking at a ground

war. I don't think we're looking at this

war. I don't think we're looking at this thing escalating. I think it's going to,

thing escalating. I think it's going to, you know, continue to be, it's just a matter of how long it takes to finally get Iran to say, "Yeah, we we we really

can't fight back anymore." Um but people should be in in you know because markets oftentimes um you know the the war begins and

within a day or two the markets um in a bull mode and and this time around the the stock market still wants to be bearish but

>> I think that's going to change very soon. I don't think there's a lot of

soon. I don't think there's a lot of downside from here. um you know, you might go down another 100 points in the S&P if that. I don't really even think

we'll see that much. Uh obviously, you could do worse if events change, but as I read this thing, I don't see, you know, the sentiment is far more bearish

than I think it needs to be. And I think once this thing, you know, whether it's tomorrow, whether it's next week, um I think once this thing turns up, you're

going to see a very fast move to new highs and then keep going from there.

>> Yeah. You you've you've often talked about a meltup and I think as I'm talking to you today, which is the 6th of March for context, um as I well, I think it's the fifth of March where you are, but it's the sixth where I am.

>> Right. Right.

>> I saw a bit of confusion on your face.

Oh, it's we're a day ahead of you here.

Um, what I'm seeing at the moment is that there's a little bit of confusion. Now,

you've always spoken about a meltup. So,

we're still in that meltup phase as far as your concern and I think you've called the S&P because you keep changing your uh your outlook and I think you've

called it for 9500, haven't you? Which

is >> Yeah, my outlook hasn't changed but but the numbers have changed. I've

>> Okay. Um, good point. I've risen my I >> I raised my S&P target last fall to uh well, going back to last April, if you remember the April swoon when you know

the whole tariff announcement came. Oh,

yeah. And the market dropped 20%. as

when it dropped down to um 4,800 or 4840 where it bottomed out there, I raised my

target to from 8,000 to 8,700 on the S&P. Um I then in in um last October in

S&P. Um I then in in um last October in my fourth quarter letter raised it again to 9500. So that's my current target is

to 9500. So that's my current target is 9500. And

9500. And >> what's it at at the moment, David?

>> Pardon me. What's it at at the moment?

>> Um, we're at, let's see, we're at 6840.

Well, I'm looking at futures, but we're something in the 6,800s, 6850 or thereabouts. So, I mean, you're you're

thereabouts. So, I mean, you're you're looking at I I haven't done the numbers as of now, but I think you're looking at like a 40% rise from here to there. And

NASDAQ, I have a 32,000 target. Um, and

that had been raised a couple times in the last year. Um my Dow target is 65,000

and my Russell 2000 the small cap index I um increased that last October from 3,400 to 3,800.

And I think if you do the math that one's going to outperform the other three indexes. So small caps I think

three indexes. So small caps I think will lead the way.

>> Yeah.

>> But I when I look at tech tech is just in a consolidation. it's going to, you know, pick right back up again on the other side of this. Um, you know, I think industrials, they corrected pretty

hard today, but industrials still look very good. Um, the materials look great.

very good. Um, the materials look great.

Uh, and I think financials look great.

So, I think it's going to be a very broad-based rally. Um, I'm not so sure

broad-based rally. Um, I'm not so sure that you're gonna see that in like some of the defensive areas like consumer staples. I think will lag. Energy I

staples. I think will lag. Energy I

think will lag.

>> Energy will lag.

>> Yeah. I I think energy obviously you've had this the spike in oil as a result of Iran.

>> I think as it becomes clear that we've pretty much got control of that situation. Um you're going to see oil

situation. Um you're going to see oil come back down pretty hard. So I still have a target. I I had said that it would, you know, I I had been the bear

on the street calling for 60 and it went to 55 and after it went there I said it'll probably trade in a range between

low 50s and mid to high 60s and if you get into some kind of a um altercation with Iran, you know, you could get a spike from there and that's what we've seen.

>> I don't think that spike is going to last. And you know, I I don't know

last. And you know, I I don't know whether we're at the top here. You know,

got over 80 today on WTI.

>> Yeah.

>> Um I >> Yeah, that's that's Yeah, I'm I'm looking here. And Brent is has risen by

looking here. And Brent is has risen by nearly 5%. It's 85 a barrel.

nearly 5%. It's 85 a barrel.

>> WTI? Yep.

>> 7%.

>> So, it's possible you could see another you could see another $5 or more possibly. But you also could see see

possibly. But you also could see see this thing roll over any time now. And I

think ultimately once it becomes clear that this is not a long drawn out war or that the straits are hormuz are are not

going to be shut down that you know the US will escort chips through there etc. Um, once that all becomes clear, I think you'll see oil down under 70 again

pretty quickly. And ultimately, you I'm

pretty quickly. And ultimately, you I'm still calling for a global bust following the, you know, the the last run here. And that global bust, I think,

run here. And that global bust, I think, can take oil down to 30. So, I'm not in that camp that thinks oil's on its way higher.

>> Wow. Okay. Uh, there's so much to unpack here, David. um and and everyone I think

here, David. um and and everyone I think what I'm seeing at the moment it's almost uh whether it's a result of um social media and and the world that we

live in now where information can be so fast to get to people that people don't sit back and look at the big picture.

For example, I've had some people I've made note of people saying why is the gold price crashing? I'm like, well, the gold price or or you could flip it on

its head and say, well, actually, it's not crashing. It's the the currency has

not crashing. It's the the currency has been devalued 75% in a year because it's not the gold price going up. It's your

currency right?

>> And nothing's going to change about that, is there?

>> No. I I think gold's in a big bull market that still has a ways to run. I

raised my target on gold to 6,800. I had

been at 5,000 and then I had um 5,000 I think was my target last October and I raised it to 5,500 coming into this year

and I just raised it again few weeks ago to 6,800. So um I think there's a ways to go. Tell us the rale

>> talk talk to talk to us about the rationale behind the five to five and a half to 68.

>> Yeah. So so gold I mean there's any number of reasons people point to various reasons for for why gold's been in this big bull market. The biggest

reason frankly is the momentum. I mean

it is part of it is geopolitical concerns. Part of it is um you know

concerns. Part of it is um you know concerns about all the debt and money out there and you know the basically depreciating currencies particularly in

our case you know I'm forecasting gold in the dollar so I have a bearish you know outlook for for the dollar and that

helps gold so the move from here to 6800 a lot of is driven by my expectation that the dollar is heading down to you know DXY is heading down from you know

currently 98 8 or 9 down to 90 and ultimately down to 82. So, um I think 6,800 is 6,800 is potentially

conservative if we go to 82. Um and it's it's really just you know, everybody wants to come up with some

um you know, cerebral reason why gold is where it is, but quite honestly, institutions were under under owned gold for a long time.

>> Yeah.

>> As well as silver.

>> And all of a sudden they're finding their performance is being harmed because gold's outperforming, you know, everything else.

>> Um or the metals are outperforming everything else. So it's just a simple

everything else. So it's just a simple math of having if institutions have to start adding gold to their portfolios, >> it's a pretty thin it's pretty thin

group if you start uh see an institution buying it. So I think it's that and and

buying it. So I think it's that and and even more so in silver. I mean silver I had a target uh for the longest time.

Last time I talked to you I had a target of 75 and that was a long-h held target.

Then I raised it to um 100 um and then 125

um and most recently when I raised gold to 6,800 I raised silver to 180. And

it's the same story. It's a very thin uh group, very thin asset when all of a sudden institutions want to own it. And

and the same goes for the miners. I mean

the you know the minor capitalization of all the miners out there um you know don't equal some of these tech stocks at all or even a fraction of them. So, so I

think you're going to see as these get accumulated now, you know, they're taking a rest right now, you know, um, silver's got hit, you know, it ran from

ran from 70 to, you know, 125. Um, and

then back down to 65 overnight in in that woods.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah, that was crazy. Um, and now we're just kind of rebuilding from that. I

think once I think the correction we're in right now, the one driven by Iran is almost over. I I don't know whether, you

almost over. I I don't know whether, you know, Fridays are a tough day to call because you got the weekend coming.

They, you know, they may sit on their hands or are trying to sell it because they're worried about Iran. But

>> beyond that, I think next week, you know, silver's off to the races. Gold's

probably off to the races >> and the market probably.

>> Oh, and the market next week.

>> Yep.

>> Okay. Um, what does David Hunter look at? Are you do you look broad

look at? Are you do you look broad because you covered a lot of different areas before when you talked about um

oils and um tech and industrials and um all those sorts of things, but that's a very wide array. Do you have a favorite stepchild?

>> Yeah, I tend I don't tend to pick out one. Uh what I do say is that I think

one. Uh what I do say is that I think tech tech, industrials, financials and materials will be among the leaders

in this last leg up or in the what I call the the final parabolic parabolic run to the top. So if if the broad

averages are going to be up um you know 40% from here the broad indexes um these things like financials could be

up 75 or 80% from here. Um the materials I think certainly 50% or more.

Industrials have had a big run already but there's nothing saying that they can't go you know much higher still.

Even tech, when I look at tech, as much as it's been beat up or certain se sectors have, even tech looks still in a

very much a bull pattern that um for example semis um I have a target on the semis of 550 and I think from here

that's that's still probably 40 or 45% uh upside. So um you know what is just

uh upside. So um you know what is just >> what's driving this meltup? Um because

to me I'm looking at it, we've got an increased cost of living, inflation sticky, sticking around. Uh interest

rates not uh falling, not happening, potentially going higher. To me, it's got all the hallmarks of people are struggling, but the market's still on

fire. What's driving this, David? And

fire. What's driving this, David? And

then I'll get to my next question.

>> Yeah. So it's the the question really is what will drive it because what you just listed >> are all the reasons that people are bearish right now.

>> Yeah.

>> I mean I don't agree with most of those.

I don't agree that interest rates are going to stay up here. I'm actually

saying that probably by sometime this summer you could see the tenure down to 3% or below.

probably, you know, now with the delay with Iran and stuff in oil, it might push it into mid to late summer, but um I was saying you might even see it by mid year, but I don't think that's the

case now. But but uh you'll see, you

case now. But but uh you'll see, you know, I think rates are about to roll over right now. I mean, I don't think there's you might have another few days left of this correction, but you know, I

don't I don't see the tenure much above uh 420.

>> Okay. And I think it'll break four again very soon. Um and then go from there on

very soon. Um and then go from there on the downside. Um inflation, I know

the downside. Um inflation, I know everybody's worried about inflation, particularly with oil spiking here.

>> Absolutely.

>> As I said, I expect oil to do a quick reversal within weeks or days. Um and uh so I'm not worried about inflation. I

think inflation's actually trending down. when you look at you know again we

down. when you look at you know again we know CPI PPI >> CPI >> and CPI right you know it's held up by

housing which is just a a problem in terms of how they calculate it when you look at trueflation which is another measure out there private measure you

know that's down under 2% already well well under two maybe under one um so I I don't think inflation is the problem everybody thinks it is I think it's

actually trending towards 2% and will this year. Um I'm more worried about

this year. Um I'm more worried about deflation following you know if we get a global bust it's going to be a deflationary bust. So I think inflation

deflationary bust. So I think inflation is peaking here. Um you know tempor you know short-term peaking and we'll roll back over. Um, and again, everybody

back over. Um, and again, everybody seems to find every reason to be skeptical on every little sell-off. And

they were just beginning, as I said, the the institutions were skeptical of this market all the way from October 2022 until just recently when it finally got

up 7,000. Institutions were starting to

up 7,000. Institutions were starting to come in and say, "Yeah, we we have to get more aggressive. We realize we've, you know, we were a little too

>> cautious." and then Iran hit and they

>> cautious." and then Iran hit and they went right back to their bearish mode.

So I think the story is the sentiment has remained remarkably um restrained in spite of the fact that we have a market that you know don't

forget October 2022 we were 3500 >> we doubled you know we doubled in in three years.

>> Yeah. and and now we're giving back, you know, 3% of that and people act like we're back, you know, heading right back to 3500. So, so I think more than

to 3500. So, so I think more than anything else, the sentiment is is a big reason to be bullish because investors just don't seem to have an ability, at

least so far, to get a bullion. you

know, I my what I will be looking for, everybody asked me this question. When

when are you gonna, you know, what's going to cause you to all of a sudden say, "Yeah, maybe we're there."

>> Yeah. Exactly.

>> When I see the sentiment turn a bullion when when I hear the institutions telling me there's two or three years to run on this market and they're giving you all reasons why you should be

bullish, that's when you should be concerned. Not when all the institutions

concerned. Not when all the institutions are saying, well, we're we're very cautious here or we, you know, yes, we're in the market, but we have, you know, we have concerns. That's that's

been the case for three years now. And

this, you know, since October 2022, they have just continually rebuilt the wall of worry. Every time

you get a two or three or 4% sell-off, you would think you just had a 10 or 15% sell off because they turn bearish or or at least cautious very quickly.

>> Yeah.

>> And that's that wall of that wall of worry is future fuel. That's the fuel for the next advance.

>> You you mentioned a moment ago def what what concerns you more is deflation.

there because there's a lot to unpack here because right now the market will continue to be strong, right? That's what you're saying. Stay

right? That's what you're saying. Stay

in the market for the moment. But what

concerns you more is in the not too distant future, we'll be looking at deflation. What do you mean? Unpack

deflation. What do you mean? Unpack

deflation for my beautiful audience and unpack why that's more of a worry >> than an inflationary or even a stagflation environment.

So my my thesis is that we are in a a market an economy that is certainly in the US and I think around the world to some extent but in the US

have and have not economy. So you've got you know you've got the wealthy are certainly not hurting. They're they're

real estate values are you know not they're off the top but they're still they've come up a lot in the last several years. Um, and obviously the

several years. Um, and obviously the stock market's not far off the top. Um,

so we have that, but at the same time, we've got half of our population just trying to make ends meet.

>> Yeah.

>> So, you are seeing signs that that's continuing to worsen, that that gap is getting worse, >> that the economy is is being, you know,

dragged down some. consumer spending I think is is um you know it's above water but it's kind of tentative at this point and I think that's you know that's a

sign that we're getting late in this game. Um you know there are different uh

game. Um you know there are different uh delinquency rates and things like that are starting to pop up that show some some problems. We obviously know the

government's um you know wash in debt and you know has has >> you know has a mess on its hands. Um and

you know the thing that's really confused it or propped the economy up has been in this country has been the reshoring and the the the capital

pouring in here that Trump has gotten in. you know, the so-called 10 trillion

in. you know, the so-called 10 trillion or whatever he quotes of of monies that are coming in from foreign investors saying, "Yeah, we'll put a plant in in

the US or we'll spend money in the US on this capital expenditure or that." Um,

so so we do have a component of the economy that's kind of keeping things afloat.

>> Meanwhile, housing is rolling over.

Meanwhile, um, you know, loans are slowing.

Meanwhile, the consumer is starting to um struggle. And so I think that is

um struggle. And so I think that is where we're headed is more and more that slowdown is coming. Um and it got a

little muddied by the shutdown last last um in the fourth quarter. So the GDP number at one point you know before we got the real number you know we were

looking at four or five% GDP that you know estimated.

>> Yeah. and then number came in at one something but I think a lot of that was the slowdown in in the government or the shutdown in the government. So, so we're we're still in a place where I think

we're muddling through, but I think under the surface the economy is trending towards a recession.

>> As that recession, as I say, what what my whole thesis of a global bust is the fact that we will turn a normal recession into something

far worse because of the leverage in the system. Um, you know, because we have

system. Um, you know, because we have 330 trillion in global debt. Uh, so this isn't just the US, this is worldwide.

Uh, we've got banks that are, you know, maybe we don't have subprime loan problems this time, but we have private credit problems. We have private equity issues. We've got, you know, we've got a

issues. We've got, you know, we've got a lot of things under the surface that will all show up as the economy goes into recession. And I think that will

into recession. And I think that will turn something um that would be a normal recession into something more like 20089

except worse. And part of the reason

except worse. And part of the reason it'll be worse is because of 20089, >> right? the if you think about it uh I

>> right? the if you think about it uh I mean Paul's told us um not that he's going to be there much longer but he's told us he he would not go back to what

we did in 20089 >> Wall Street Wall Street's pretty much said that was a mistake we should not do zero interest rate policy you know we should not print

money at that rate so everybody's on board saying we learned from our mistake we're not going to do that in. And guess

what?

>> They will.

>> That's what they're going to need.

They're going to need to do, >> but they're going to be reluctant to do it and slow to do it. And in that period of um delay is when the thing can really

crater. And so, so it's really the 2008

crater. And so, so it's really the 2008 lesson that they thought they learned that's going to cause them to be slow to react when they need to. and in and

being slow, it turns this thing into a a freef fall.

>> At the moment, you know, I'm I'm known as that gold lady, David, as you know.

And for me, I look at things and I say, well, for me, precious metals is how you protect your purchasing power.

Currencies around the world, they keep sprinting it out of thin air, but the the the prettiest mayor in the slaughterhouse is still the US dollar.

Um why is that still staying so strong?

>> Yeah. So you started to see it fray at the edges. You know it came down from

the edges. You know it came down from 115.

>> I'm just quoting DXY but it came down from 115 >> to um 95 I think or 96 somewhere 95ish I think. And then we had Iran and it

think. And then we had Iran and it popped right back up to 99.

>> Okay. I think this is just a counter trend move because of Iran very short-lived and I think the next move in in DXY is down to 90. So you you know

you could see an eight or nine point drop in in DXY over over the next three or four or five months. Um and and once it goes there it

months. Um and and once it goes there it might pause there because there's some real support down there. But I think if it gets through that it's going to 82 very fast. And why will that happen?

very fast. And why will that happen?

>> Yeah, >> I think that will happen because the economy is going to start showing how how negative it is. Um, and maybe there'll be some money printing

beginning then that will push it down in the actual bust, which I define as something worse than a recession, but

not drawn out like a depression and basically 20089 on steroids. Um, in that bust and it's a global bust. Um, I think

you will see the dollar get that bid as people flee to safety. But between now, let's say between now and let's say

uh the fall sometime, you could see the dollar down to 82. And then it might even be a little longer than that before it gets there. And then halfway through

the bus, let's say, once people realize it's not just a recession, it's much worse. Then I think you'll see a very

worse. Then I think you'll see a very rapid bit up of the dollar. It could go all the way back to 120.

And I I would >> I would call that the last harrah because you know the reaction to the bus when they finally wake up because they

don't have a choice. I'm estimating you could see as much as 20 trillion come out of you know in QE come out of the Fed and obviously proportionally similar

coming out of every other central bank.

Did you say 20 trillion?

>> Yeah. So, you could see the Fed balance sheet grow to 30 trillion. You know, it was it was 9 trillion, you know, after the pandemic and then they've brought it back down to six and a half trillion.

Yeah.

>> And I think it can go from six and a half to close to 30 trillion is what I again it's just seat of the pants, but what I think could be the response to

basically a freef falling banking system around the world. So every central bank is going to there's nothing else they can do when and I mean freef falling you

know we saw it in 20089 I think this will be maybe worse more so Europe more so Canada more so Asia maybe more so

Australia I'm not sure um but the US will be part of it too I mean our banks don't have the subprime issue this time but you know it's a small world when you start seeing a banking crisis

All right. So, let's try and wrap this

All right. So, let's try and wrap this all up for my audience out there that are watching this and saying, scratching their heads and saying, "David, you have covered so much information and there's

the meltup and then there's the crash and there's all sorts of things happening. All they want to know is how

happening. All they want to know is how do I h how do I unpack this to make sure that I get out the other side uh intact,

if you like?" Yeah, it it does get confusing because it's in a fairly concentrated period of time you're going to see two extremes or at least I think you are. So,

you are. So, um I try to get people it's it's a fine line to walk where you you know normally in a in normal times

we would say hey don't don't get greedy you know if there's a top coming don't think you're going to get out at the top you know start getting conservative ahead of that start becoming defensive ahead of that

>> but if the last run here is going to be as much as a 40% in some of the sectors 50% or more fun. Um, you know, you you run the risk if you say, "Well, I'm not

that smart. I'm getting out now because

that smart. I'm getting out now because the other side of the mountain's coming."

coming." >> You run the risk that you think you're doing that, but then you get out, the market's up 30, >> the market's up 30 or 40% and you jump

back in at the top. So I tell people um you know you have everybody has to kind of figure out what their uh sleep at night quotient is. But um I tell people

you know don't be so quick to worry about the other side. You hear the negatives and you get scared but you know kind of try to ride this but

realize that there is a what I think is a top of a 43year secular bull market coming this year. Now, whether it comes as soon as the middle of the year,

whether it pushes into the summer or even later, uh you know, I'm I'm guilty of always calling these things ahead of time and yeah, they they take longer.

But, >> um but that's that's what I think your focus should be. And as I say, um when

you hear the majority telling you this thing has a long ways to run, >> that's the other way. getting nervous.

[laughter] Yeah, they're not anywhere near that right now. They they have one foot out the door themselves right now and they're some of them are starting to talk about getting both feet out the

door. So, meaning selling. Um, so you

door. So, meaning selling. Um, so you you know, you're not there's just far too much skepticism around the marketplace right now to worry about a

top. But we've come a long way from I

top. But we've come a long way from I mean if this is a 43 year secular bull market as I say and I'll quote it in the Dow terms because I don't remember what

the S&P was back then but I was I was a money manager um you know an equity pension equity portfolio manager back in 1982

and I was responsible for a you know a pension funds equity and I I had joined them six months prior and told them to

keep their powder dry. August of 1982, I said, "I think the market's bottoming.

It's time to allocate money." That was I think the bottom in the Dow at that time, August of 1982, went 780. 780.

And I'm saying this year we'll get to 65,000.

That's how far we've come in 43 years.

So, I understand why people are saying, "Hey, this is extended, etc." From a long-term standpoint, we're at, you know, the the last inning, but that last

inning could be pretty exciting. So, try

to try to stay with it as long as you feel comfortable. And then just

feel comfortable. And then just understand and this is a big part of the message the other side of the mountain that from the top I'm calling for an 80

potentially a 70 to 80% decline in the market. So the biggest basically since

market. So the biggest basically since 29 1929 um and if we go down and that's the that's the S&P or that's the indexes. If

the indexes are going to go down that much that means most all stocks are going to go down a lot. Some will go down 60 and some will go down 85 or 90.

But in general, if the indexes are going down 80%.

There's not much you want to be holding in equities at that point.

>> That flies in the face of at least in this country and I think probably there too. Um the idea that and this started

too. Um the idea that and this started back in the mid 80s, you know, it's time in the market, not timing the market.

That mantra has been um what you've heard for you know the last 40 years >> and it's been right. If you put your money in an index and just wrote it for the last 40 years you were smarter than most >> Yeah.

>> um professional money managers.

>> Yeah.

>> But if I'm right here, you want to take the exact opposite approach and say it is timing the market. it's time to go all out, you know, to go to get

everything out of the equity market at that point in time or most everything.

>> So, do you have to go against >> when do we know what that point in time is? That's that's the

is? That's that's the >> like I said trillion dollar question.

>> Yeah. I mean, who knows if I'm going to be able to call it the way I, you know, I'm on X every day and whether I'll be right or not. But at least in my way of,

you know, as I see it now, >> there is gonna come a point, you're not gonna, nobody's gonna get out right at the top. No.

the top. No.

>> But there's gonna come a point where you're not far from the top where you're going to say, "Everybody else is getting in. I'm getting out." That's that's kind

in. I'm getting out." That's that's kind of I'm a contrarian and I'm very comfortable doing that. Most people are not. And they're gonna have to kind of

not. And they're gonna have to kind of force themselves to go against the crowd because the crowd >> is gonna be telling you how good it is.

Yeah. And what a lot of people don't realize is that at the top there are going to be compelling reasons to stay in. You're going to have to fight those

in. You're going to have to fight those compelling reasons because there's going to be, you know, the story. I think the narrative is going to be something to the effect the economy is slowing,

inflation's down, interest rates are down, the Fed is easing aggressively and is going to continue to ease aggressively. This is not the time to

aggressively. This is not the time to get out. And that's when it probably is

get out. And that's when it probably is the time to get out. Um, so but don't worry about trying to pick the exact week or month that you get out. Just

know there's still a long runway from here. And as you get closer,

here. And as you get closer, you know, don't don't get greedy, but also don't don't feel like, you know, you have to, you know, nobody's going to know exactly when that top is. There's

no bell that's going to ring. Well,

>> and you're gonna and you're going to have to fight the voices out there because it's going to be a, you know, a steady uh group of voices out there telling you how good things are.

>> I I and it's happened before. It'll

happen again. Ladies and gentlemen, one of the things that I noted that David talked about was he he's calling for 6,800 uh gold. That's US dollar gold, which

uh gold. That's US dollar gold, which would put it at about probably 9,000 8 and a half thousand Aussie. And David, I think one of the things is for me

anyway, it's like my little insurance policy. And we've got a um a Gold Coast

policy. And we've got a um a Gold Coast gold conference coming up on the 25th and 26th of March, which will be very interesting. Um and so I'm just going to

interesting. Um and so I'm just going to let all of you out there know that if you understand what David's saying, we've got another David coming to Gold Coast Gold, David Bird, who's who's got

[clears throat] a very similar view to David Hunter. Um, and one day, David,

David Hunter. Um, and one day, David, I'm going to get you out to Australia.

Uh, not a lot bit of skiing here, but uh, I'd love to have you come out and, uh, talk to our audience. But how would you, because we're running out of time now, three things people should do right

now. Sounds to me like one of them is

now. Sounds to me like one of them is stay in the market for now.

>> Yeah, I would say right now because people are so skeptical, stay in the market. um and you know try try to

market. um and you know try try to um give yourself I think you have at least the next few months to kind of ride it

and then as you know assuming things play out as I expect as you get into the middle of the year and a little beyond that's probably the time when you're going to start seeing opportunity to say

oh maybe you know I've done pretty well it's time to get more defensive and don't you know nobody should have to get all out one day or anything. Do it do it in steps.

>> Um I'm not an advisor, so I'm not trying to give people Everybody's going to have to figure that out for themselves. I do

agree with you that metals longer term.

Now I should probably um not to avoid the three point question, but uh I should say this that I I have a view my

my 6,800 target for gold is for this cycle.

Um, this year I think gold can get to 20,000 by the early 2030s.

>> Good lord.

>> So unlike this unlike the stock market that I think the top we see this year may stand for decades.

So we may not see those highs again for you know two or decades or more. Um and

uh kind of like Japan in 1989 you know they topped out and it was three or four decades before they came back. Um yeah

that's true. So

>> so gold on the other hand will will make a top for the cycle this year I think but has much higher highs coming next

cycle. So even if you buy it and hold it

cycle. So even if you buy it and hold it at least you are going to be able to see you know profits from there next cycle.

Whereas equities if you buy them near the top or hold them past the top you may not see those highs again in your

lifetime. Um so um so gold is a whole

lifetime. Um so um so gold is a whole different story. silver as well. The

different story. silver as well. The

next cycle the 20 you know the postbust cycle recovery cycle will be a commodity cycle will be a cycle for oil precious

metals copper all the metals you know pretty much all commodities I think will thrive and it won't be a cycle for uh so much for tech or for equities you know

it'll be more because if you print all that money um it's you know where I was talking about 20 trill If you print all that money and it's again maybe 50 or 100

trillion around the world, that's going to be highly inflationary.

>> Yes.

>> And we'll push interest rates through the ceiling. And high interest rates

the ceiling. And high interest rates means low PE multiples means equities are under pressure. So it makes a difference. Um you know, you're going to

difference. Um you know, you're going to be much happier in commodities and precious metals than you will be in in stocks next cycle.

>> That's the next cycle, ladies and gentlemen. But this cycle, as David

gentlemen. But this cycle, as David said, you know, this is not financial advice. We want you to do your own

advice. We want you to do your own research. Listen to as many people as

research. Listen to as many people as you can.

Be, I guess, don't go crazy. Don't go

crazy. For me, uh I have quite a lot of my wealth in uh gold, silver, physical, um outside of the system if you like. um

and and I am looking at some of the um the shares, the equities. So, I think it's going to be an interesting time.

Please take care of yourself out there.

If you want to learn more about precious metals, then please come on over to Gold Coast Gold 25th 26th of March. David, I

will put all the links below to how people can find you, especially I know you you you are always on Twitter. So

guys, if you want to make sure you follow David and what he's suggesting, uh, then I suggest that you click the link below and follow him on Twitter for

now. But David, it's been a year. I'm

now. But David, it's been a year. I'm

not going to let us get away with that again. We're going to talk to you.

again. We're going to talk to you.

>> Let's not do that next time.

>> Let's not do that again. I got to put something in for six months from now because who knows where we'll be in the middle of the year. But thank you so much for joining me today.

>> Yeah. Thanks, Carrie. It was it was joy.