I Keep Adding To These Two Stocks (bought more on Friday)

Hey everyone and welcome back to another

video for today. So over the past week

the Couch Investing portfolio was up

1.14%. I'm as surprised as you. Whereas

the S&P 500 was up a bit more 1.74%

year to date. It's still up 66.2%

whereas the S&P is up 13.36%

and since the start of the portfolio

it's up 165.38%

whereas the S&P 500 is up 33.74%.

And so in today's video, I would first

start to thank all the members, the new,

the old, and the members that have

rejoined more recently. I really

appreciate all of your support. Now, in

today's video, we're going to go over

the upcoming earnings week. Yes, earning

season is here and there are already

quite big companies that are reporting

their quarterly figures. We're going to

talk about some market data as well and

then talk about some information that

Oracle gave us over the last couple of

uh days, some astonishing projections

and then I would like to touch a little

bit more on some specific names

especially here Marcado Libre and lastly

here of course the probabilities of a

rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting

that's going to happen in about 10 days

time. there's basically a 100% chance

that we're getting another 25 basis

point cut now over the next couple of

days. These are the big companies that

are going to report their quarterly

figures on Monday. I don't really see

that many big names. Although we are

seeing here one of the well names that

popped up over the last couple of days,

Zans Bank Corporation. Let's see what

they are going to tell us on Monday.

Then on Tuesday, we've got Coca-Cola

before the market opens. Eleance Health

could give us maybe a better indication

on well the current state of the

healthcare market, right? A lot of us do

own United Health, Oscar Health. So that

happens Tuesday before the market opens.

We've got, of course, some other big

names out there. Lockit Martin, RTX,

General Electric Aerospace, 3M, GM. Yes,

it's as if it's as if they've all

planned this. Then Tuesday after the

close, Netflix, Intuitive Surgical,

Texas Instruments. That's about it for

me. On Wednesday, before the market

opens, you have Vertive. That's also

always an interesting one. That's before

the open. After the close, we've got, of

course, the big one, Tesla, you've got

IBM, you've got SAP and Lamb Research.

Then on Thursday before the open, you've

got the likes of American Airlines,

Honeywell Hasbro Southwest T-Mobile.

Thursday after the close, we've got the

one and the only Intel. I don't think

the quarter is going to be an

exceptional quarter, but all all of the

attention is definitely going to be on

what gets mentioned during the earnings

call. And who knows, maybe there will be

a big announcement. Now, of course, all

of the companies that do report before

they open, we will be able to cover it

during the live streams. Then all of the

rest, there will be maybe specific

videos being made about them throughout

the week as well. Or who knows, maybe I

might go live after hours. Then

apparently, according to Gavin Baker,

the Feder deficit is improving. He did

ask Grock the question. Now whether or

not you believe this data is correct is

up to you but it does give us the

sources right here and it does seem like

the federal deficit is improving. It is

under reportported. Moving on to

something I missed last week. So the S&P

500 what happens with it after its falls

2.5%

while making an all-time high the day

before. So again this was a week ago

actually now a bit more than a week ago.

This was basically what has happened

afterwards. Of course, a week later is

basically the week that went by right

now. On average, the market was up.19%.

50% of the time we're positive. Well, in

this case, we were we were positive.

Then the week after that, it's not that

great. So, the upcoming week, it's not

that great, but it does get better from

here. Then the S&P 500 after it closed

three straight days below the 20-day

moving average for the first time in

over 80 days. And apologies, there is

this flickering lamp here on top of my

head. Maybe it's Morse code. Who knows?

But this is basically what has happened

one week later, two weeks, a month, two

months, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months

later to a year later. Again, the odds

are definitely here in our favor. And

then the last one here, what happened

with the S&P 500 after the VIX jumps

above 28? While the S&P is within

negative 3% of an all-time high here as

well, you can see that the odds are in

our favor most of the time, if not all

of the time, especially after 2 months

later, we are green and on average,

we've been up quite a lot. Right? If you

look at, for example, 2 months later, on

average, sub 5%, 3 months over 8.4%. 4%

and well we're basically double digits 6

months, 9 months and a year later.

Quickly touching on the bull versus bare

argument right now. This is what has

happened historically, right?

Historically, you can clearly see that

we spent way more years in a bull market

than in a bare one. Plus, you can

clearly see that over the last couple of

years, we've had a couple of bare

markets, although they didn't really

last that long, right? We've had worse

back in the great financial crisis or

the dotcom bubble. That one actually

lasted two and a half years, 47% draw

down. But we did have we did have bare

markets more recently. Just happens to

be that well, we recovered quite

rapidly. But the point I'm trying to

make here is that bull markets on

average last 5.3 years and you go up

254%.

Bare markets on average one year and

you're down 31%. So here as well the

data suggest stay invested. Now crude

oil as you can see is now at its lowest

price since March 2021. This of course

can help with inflation but on the flip

side this might also signal well a

reduction a big reduction maybe in

demand. Could this be the early signs of

the economy entering a recession?

Remains to be seen. Last thing here

before jumping into the portfolio and

then talking about Oracle, Marcado Libra

and some other things. I want to show

you this again. Right? I've given you

examples and speeches before about why I

believe that we are not in the same

space basically as the com bubble,

right? Because back then you've had a

lot of ideas. You have a lot of money

flowing into some names that weren't

generating anything, right? The pets.com

was was an idea that was worth a lot of

money. But Nvidia is not pets.com,

right? Nvidia is not pets.com. Microsoft

is not pets.com or hospitals.com or

whatn not. Today we're also we've talked

about this last week. Brad Gersonner

gave this great example of oh dark

fibers right dark fiber and now you have

dark GPUs. No you don't. You don't.

Everyone is trying to get as many GPUs

as fast as possible. If there is a GPU

available, it will be used. It's not

like companies like XAI, OpenAI, uh

Google or whatever Perplexity. It's not

like they've got GPUs that are basically

sitting still and nobody uses them. No,

everything, every GPU that you buy is

going to get used. Also, something I

told you uh before 25 years ago, what

what exactly grew from close to zero to

almost a billion users in record time?

Nothing. Not nothing came close to it.

So again, it's not the same. It's not

the same at all. Today you're seeing AI

companies or whatever you want to call

them, tech companies go from zero to one

like this. One viral tweet, suddenly

your startup has attracted a million

users overnight. It's not something that

could have happened before. Also, today

you've got trillion dollar companies

that are extremely profitable that can

finance these smaller startups. Yes,

maybe some of these startups will not

make it, but it doesn't put extra risk.

A little bit, but not risk that will

make an Nvidia blow up or something like

that. No, they've got enough cash to

play around. So, again, I wanted to show

you this because this basically shows

you that we are in a very very different

era than the dot era. Now, quickly

touching on the portfolio. I did add to

two positions. You get three seconds to

guess which one it is. You can write it

in the comment section below. One, two,

three. Okay, if you guessed correct, it

is SoFi and it is Nebus. You might

think, well, are you crazy? Why are you

adding? It's already such a big position

for you. Well, again, I don't care.

These are two excellent companies and

I'll accumulate more shares as I see

fit. Now, you might say, "Oh, but why

aren't you buying more rubric and Oscar

and shift 4?" Well, luckily I have the

cash to do it. Someone thinks I should

make a t-shirt. Time and cash is all I

need. Exactly. I've been adding to

rubric and shift 4 to Oscar as well. As

you can clearly see right here, I've

been adding to those names and I'll

continue to add to those names

opportunistically. But yes, when I saw

Nebus come back down to around $11312,

I bought a little bit more. Same with

SoFi. We're back here in this $26 or so.

We're very close to the earnings report.

I'll actually make a prediction video

yet again. I think on Monday that should

come out. I am extremely bullish on

those names. And so if I like the price

that I'm paying, I'll just buy more and

more. Same could happen here with a

Google. Same could happen here with a D

local, with an AMD, with all the rest.

Now, the portfolio has been performing

quite well. Although, yes, over the last

couple of days, some of these names have

taken a hit. Now, talking about the

biggest hit that I took this week is

actually not from the names right here,

which makes sense, but it's actually

from the options play. And and that's

just the risk of well buying options.

When things go up, you go up

significantly faster. But when things

don't move or are down, well, you go

down quite rapidly. And that's exactly

what has happened over the past week.

Nphase, okay, Nphase is still down, but

that's still very, very small. But

Pagaya, I've got two positions, although

I don't think it's that risky. Yes, I'm

down quite significantly on both of

them. But one of them is here January

26, but $30 price, strike price that is.

I don't think that's such a big risk

because I do think that this is a great

company that has been pulled down

because of some macro related issues,

but I do think that the next or the

upcoming earnings report will prove yet

again that this is a great company that

is growing quite quickly and also

becoming more profitable. Yes, it's it's

a bigger risk because it's for January

2026. Then PayPal, we've got here also a

very very small position for January 26.

strike price 100 bucks. We're still in

the green, but of course we were way

greener a week or two weeks or so ago.

Same here with the March one. All of

them, of course, strike price $100. $100

strike price. Also for June 2026, we're

still doing well right there. And then

January 27, I do have a $120 strike

price that's still up significantly. And

then I have also a $90 strike price.

That's a bit newer one. $90. Again, a

bit less risky in my opinion. Maybe less

upside as well. But hey, it's no no

point in being that greedy. I do still

think that all of them will perform

well. Maybe Pagaya is a bit more on the

riskier side because I'm only giving

them one quarter. I will of course make

a prediction video for PayPal what I'm

looking for in the upcoming earnings

report. The next four core weave still

hold my 204 shares at $96. That's my

average. And iron, of course, I still

have 500 shares after I took profits

last week of the other 500 shares. And

yes, all of the cash is basically still

sitting there. Well, a bit less now that

I did add a little bit to these option

plays right here. BMR, I still have a

position as well. The position will pop

up right now on the screen. Now quickly

touching on Marcado Libre. Marcado Libre

is a position I own in my retirement

portfolio with Meta, Amazon, Marcado

Libé, Tesla and a little bit more of

Google. Yes, I do plan on adding a

little bit more to Marcado Libre and

Amazon before they report their

quarterly figures. Now, Marcado Libre is

an excellent company. If you've been

following the channel for quite a long

time, you know that I've been bullish on

Marcado Libé for a long, long time. This

is a company worth $110 billion. Yes,

one share will cost you 2,000 bucks.

When will they split? I don't know. But

over the past 5 years, yes, of course,

this includes the bare market that we've

had in 2022. Over the past 5 years, you

can see how many times this stock has

had a draw down of 20%, 15%. Multiple

times. Multiple times. But what we've

also seen is time and time again this is

a company that performs very very well

revenue-wise over the last 3 years has

grown at compound annual growth rate

close to 40%. It's expected to continue

to grow 31% compounded over the next two

years. Looking at EPS 32 close to 33%

compounded growth for the next two

years. Margin wise we're looking very

good here as well. the current fears

around the Argentinian economy and the

increased competition of Amazon is one

of the reasons why we're seeing this

drop a little bit. Maybe you might say

that, yeah, but maybe Marcado Pago,

maybe the loan portfolio is also at risk

right now because of what we've seen in

the United States. Yes, maybe. Maybe

that's the narrative currently. But I

think I think that the next earnings

report will prove yet again that this is

an excellent company with excellent

execution. And actually if we look at

this for example app traffic monthly

active users this metric measures the

average number of active user per month.

Similar web defines an active user as a

device having one or more foreground

sessions within an app in a specific

period. Look at this number one here

clearly Marcado Libre then you've got

Amazon but Amazon has been flat for

quite a while while Marcado Libre has

seen a steady rise. Timu Teimmo grew

very very quickly but more recently it

has come down Shin AliExpress all of

them right the fears oh super super

competitive well clearly not clearly

Marcado Libé is doing something quite

good then app engagement daily to

monthly active user ratio who's number

one here marcado Libre yes you've got

Amazon number two then AliExpress Shin

Liverpool Timu Walmart de Mexico and

couple again clearly Marcado Libé is the

leader they've been leading this space

and this continent actually for many

many years right it's not new these

competitors are not new the economic

struggles in the regions are not new

back in I think 2014 2015 in Brazil when

Dilar Rusev was president right Brazil

was in a very very bad place did that

cause marad deliberate to go bankrupt.

No, they survived and they became much

bigger. They became more profitable over

time because that's what great companies

do. If I actually show you here Marcado

Libé, the chart on the weekly, you can

see that the uptrend line that started

here back in June 2022 has always been

respected, has always seen the stock

rebound. Yeah. Now, if we want to see a

rebound, it still has to drop another

$60 or so. Yes, we are here under the

50-day moving average. We're not

oversold on the weekly. Maybe it can

drop a little bit more, but it has

respected that uptrend line for the last

3 years. And so to me, and I've I've

seen many many comments on Marcado

Libra. Yes, to me, Marcado Libra is a

worthy company picking up before they

report earnings. You don't have to go

all in, right? You don't have to go all

in because we don't know how the markets

will react. But if you liked this stock

or if you like this stock at these

prices, yes, the stock coming down a

little bit more recently should not

scare you from buying this amazing

company. Lastly, here we've got Oracle.

Oracle that came out with quite some

information last week. This is a great

couple of pictures from Patrick Morhead

on X. Previously worked at AMD. Now he's

a full-time analyst that talks AI

semiconductors. So slide number one or

maybe I should start with this slide

right here. AI infrastructure delivery

example. So each year you generate $10

billion in revenue. 33% of the total

cost is land, data center and power. 65%

of total cost is compute, network and

storage. So $60 billion in revenue. $39

billion in cost brings you here gross

margin of 35% and gross profit of $21

billion now working together to

accelerate the AI buildouts. Right? So

the Oracle we've seen they've got a lot

of debt. You don't really know how they

can sustain all of these future projects

but okay these are the companies that

they're working with. You see the likes

of Nvidia, AMD, Arista as hardware, then

Capital, Silver Lake, Digital Bridge,

Blue Hour. So their work with various

partners and some others out there as

well to make it all work. Then two

things. One, the Oracle applications

sweet advantage. We've talked about a

lot of players out there, but the real

winners are the ones that will have

either a lot of apps built on their

stack or of course they own everything

vertically integrated going to have the

best margins. You will be able to offer

the best prices. In this case here with

Oracle, they've got here quite a lot of

things. AI assistance, AI agents, teams,

workflow agents, fusion, industry, data

intelligence, Oracle cloud

infrastructure. You've got the AI

database plus the AI data platform. And

then, of course, the infrastructure as

well. And they're working with, let's

call it, all of the biggest and most

famous AI models. Privacy, of course,

your data, private data is of extreme

importance here. Now, when you look at

their own estimated goals and targets

here, they go from the Oracle Cloud

generating $10 billion in fiscal year 25

to $166

billion in in fiscal 30, right, in

fiscal 2030. That's 75% 5-year keer.

It's insane. It's insane when you think

about it, right? Right now, consensus

numbers are $198.4

4 billion for fiscal year 2030 for the

whole business. Oracle's target is $225

billion. They go from $67 billion in

fiscal year 26 to close to let's call it

$200 billion in fiscal year 2030. EPS

EPS expected to grow from $6 and let's

call it 82 to closer to $20 in EPS by

fiscal 30. If this happens, if this

happens and if these numbers are let's

call it realistic, right? because we

know okay RPO is half a billion dollars

or sorry RPO is $500 billion again

doesn't mean that it is contracted

revenue or anything but if these numbers

are real then Oracle today is cheap if

these numbers are real of course and

that's the thing they can be real I

think the answer will be clearer two

years from now when a lot of the

infrastructure buildout will be let's

call it behind us Not everything, but at

least right now we are still in year

three. 3 years ago, Chad GPT got

launched. Of course, the first couple of

quarters,

everything was chaos, right? Supply

chain wasn't ready, etc., etc. So, I

would say we're 2 years into this huge

buildout. Capex has started to increase

quite a lot two years ago. Capex is

still increasing. huge amounts of money

is still flowing into all of these

projects which of course is helping is

helping a lot of the blue collar workers

right everyone in construction is

getting quite a lot of money right now

because well you need to build data

centers right you need to build a lot of

data centers electricity pipelines you

name it right it's a lot of work it's

helping yes a certain part of the

population of the economy that maybe

previously did not get quite a lot of

attention. So that that should also help

GDP. Yes, this whole AI story is one of

the main reasons why GDP has has been

growing faster than expected, but so

what? It's a good thing. And so to me,

to conclude, I like my portfolio. I'd

love to grow other positions out there.

Yes, you're going to say, "You see, you

should have already taken profits or

trimmed down a Dolingo when you were

basically break even." Yeah, okay. I

missed that opportunity. Fine. But I'm

okay. I still like Dolingo quite a lot.

So, I'm not that angry. But yes, I will

eventually reduce the exposure or the

dollar amount I have put in Dolingo. For

those that are new here, my first buy in

Dolingo was too big, right? It's a

mistake. Okay, we learn from mistakes.

Big deal. But as for the rest here, I

still like so many companies here at the

prices that we are getting right now.

Yes, we are in earning season. So we do

expect some volatility. But yes, I am

going to continue to add to the Oscars,

to the rubric, to shift 4, to the local,

to sofi, to nebuse. And yes, some others

out there as well. If I like the

performance, I like the results. And

maybe the markets, who knows, maybe the

markets will get us more opportunities

or give us more opportunities in the

coming days and weeks. So it is over

ladies and gentlemen until it is not

right. Until it is not, the end is not

near. Although many many headlines might

tell you that it is. History has told us

that we spent way more years in bull

markets than we do in a bare market. And

that's all you need to know. Unless of

course uh there is a worldwide uh issue

and we're and we're at war with everyone

and Manchester United keeps winning

games. I mean then then yes, then maybe

there might be an issue. But until then

until then invest in great companies.

Don't panic on red days. Although if you

do feel like you're going to panic,

there will probably be a therapy session

video available for you on the channel.

Anyways, that's all I've got for you

today. Hope you'll enjoy it. See you all

in the next one. Bye-bye.

[Music]