If AI Takes All the Jobs, Who's Left to Buy Stocks?
By Zack Bakos
Summary
Topics Covered
- AI Targets Stock Market Owners
- Past Tech Spared Spending Class
- Speed Determines Market Crash
- AI CEOs Predict Mass Unemployment
- Buffett Holds Massive Cash
Full Transcript
People who are building AI are telling us that it's going to replace millions of jobs, maybe hundreds of millions. But
here's the question that nobody is actually answering. If AI takes the jobs
actually answering. If AI takes the jobs of the people who own the stock market, what happens to the stock market itself?
Because the stock market doesn't just run on billionaires. It runs on white collar professionals, managers, specialists, business owners, and the retirement savings and investment
accounts which are built on their salaries. And these are the people AI is
salaries. And these are the people AI is coming for first. And if they lose their income and they stop investing and they start selling, then the whole system that's been propping up the stock market is beginning to crack. And Wall Street
of course keeps telling us this is so great for productivity. And the
technology has never crashed the market before. But to be honest with you, I
before. But to be honest with you, I don't trust Wall Street. So I have spent months researching this myself and I have found something that completely changes how I think about the next 3
years. So let me just start with the
years. So let me just start with the most optimistic scenario out there because every time a major technology came along it wiped out millions of jobs but every single time the stock market
has still gone up because when farming became automated 90% of farm jobs has disappeared but the stock market didn't crash. It actually averaged 18 to 19%
crash. It actually averaged 18 to 19% annual returns during the peak displacement. Then when factories got
displacement. Then when factories got automated millions of manufacturing jobs have vanished. And here's the stat that
have vanished. And here's the stat that really sells this argument. 60% of the jobs people have today didn't even exist in the 1940s. The economy just created
new work over and over and over.
Hundreds of millions of new jobs in 80 years. And technically, no stock market
years. And technically, no stock market crash in history has ever been caused by technology taking jobs. Not a single one. Year 2000 was a speculative bubble.
one. Year 2000 was a speculative bubble.
2008 was because of bad mortgages. 2020
was a pandemic. technology wasn't the cause of any of them. So, if you stop right there, the answer is obvious. AI
is just the next wave and it's going to play out just like every time before.
But here is where that argument completely misses. Every previous
completely misses. Every previous technology wave displaced workers who were largely not the economy's primary consumers or stockholders. The farm
workers were not buying stocks and didn't have retirement accounts. The
factory workers weren't the driving majority of consumer spending. Of
course, these transitions were very painful for the people who were involved, but they didn't threaten the financial engine of the economy because the people losing jobs were not the
people running that engine. And that's
exactly why this time is very different.
AI is the first technology in history that targets directly the spending and the investing class. 87% of white collar professionals earning over $100,000 a
year own stocks and they also drive 57% of all consumer spending in the country and that consumer spending makes up 70% of the entire economy. So when people
tell you technology has never crashed the stock market they are absolutely right. But technology has also never
right. But technology has also never gone after the people who are the stock market. And that creates a chain
market. And that creates a chain reaction that has never happened before in market history. So let me walk you through what this actually looks like if it plays out. And I'm going to keep this very simple for you because the chain
reaction itself is simple and that's what makes it scary. No jobs mean no paychecks. No paychecks mean the people
paychecks. No paychecks mean the people stop spending money. People stop
spending means the companies make less money. Companies make less money means
money. Companies make less money means stocks go down. And that's just a surface level. And here's where it gets
surface level. And here's where it gets worse. When people lose their jobs,
worse. When people lose their jobs, obviously they need cash. And where is most of their money sitting at? In their
retirement savings account, the brokerage accounts, the investments that they've been building for 10 years, 20 years, 30 years. Now, the data shows that 41% of workers who leave a job cash
out some or all of their retirement savings. So let's just say 15% of white
savings. So let's just say 15% of white collar workers lose their jobs. And
that's a conservative estimate based on what these CEOs are predicting. Now 600
billion is just a big number until you see what has happened before. In 2008,
the job losses triggered force retirement liquidations about $2 trillion in selling pressure over several months. The S&P 500 has dropped
several months. The S&P 500 has dropped 57%. Now the AI scenario is potentially
57%. Now the AI scenario is potentially worse than both of these. And here's
why. A pandemic eventually ends. A
credit crisis gets bailed out. But if AI permanently eliminates the jobs, the people selling cannot come back to buy.
And that selling pressure doesn't stop because it's not a cycle. It's a
complete structural shift. And here's
one more thing that amplifies all of this. When the stock market drops,
this. When the stock market drops, people naturally feel poorer. So they
spend even less money, which is just called the wealth effect. and it turns a market dip into a fullblown spending contraction. And normally in a downturn,
contraction. And normally in a downturn, the spending class keeps spending and things stabilize. But in this scenario,
things stabilize. But in this scenario, the spending class is the one that is being displaced. There's nobody left to
being displaced. There's nobody left to stabilize it. Now, before you go ahead
stabilize it. Now, before you go ahead and sell everything, here's the thing.
Everything I just described only happens under one condition, and it comes down to this single variable, which is speed.
If AI replaces white collar jobs over 10 to 20 years the way every other technology did, markets almost certainly will go higher. The economy is incredibly good at adapting and it has
done so for hundreds and hundreds of years. But it needs time and if the
years. But it needs time and if the displacement happens within 2 to 5 years, the economy might not get the time it needs to adapt. So the real question is how fast is this actually
moving right now? Because here's what's different about this moment. The people
who understand this technology better than anybody else on the planet, the ones who are building it are the ones that are sounding the alarm about it.
The CEO of Entropic expects 10 to 20% unemployment within 5 years and says 50% of all entry-level white collar jobs will be eliminated. The CEO of OpenAI
privately told a US senator upwards of 70% of jobs could be eliminated. and the
head of AI at Microsoft predicted human level performance on most professional tasks within 18 months. Specifically,
naming accounting, legal, marketing, and project management. But here's the one
project management. But here's the one that really got me. Jamie Diamond, who is the CEO of JP Morgan, the biggest bank in the world, said this in January this year, that the transition may go
too fast for society and that he would welcome government bans on mass AI related firings. So, think about that
related firings. So, think about that for a second. The CEO of the biggest bank in the world is saying that he would be okay with the government telling companies that they cannot fire
people because of AI. When has a Wall Street CEO ever said anything like that?
Based on all of these predictions, the inflection point falls somewhere between 2027 and 29. So the question becomes, what do you do about it? And I also looked into what some of the top fund
managers in the world are actually doing right now to prepare for this. And when
you see this, it paints a very clear picture. Number one is Warren Buffett.
picture. Number one is Warren Buffett.
Buffett is sitting on over $300 billion in cash, the most he has ever held in his entire career. So he's basically saying stocks are overvalued. And his
strategy has always been the same. Sit
on cash, be patient, and buy aggressively when the market crashes. He
did this in 2008, in 2020, and right now he's sitting and waiting to for something to happen. Number two is Stanley Draen Miller. Draen Miller is considered one of the greatest
macroeconomic traders of the last 30 years and he just sold his entire position in Nvidia and in Palanteer, two of the highest growth AI stocks with some of the most extreme valuations in
the market. Now, he didn't just go to
the market. Now, he didn't just go to cash. He actually pivoted his investment
cash. He actually pivoted his investment portfolio into healthcare, biotech, and critical AI infrastructure like TSNC.
And number three is Michael Bur. Bur is
the guy who predicted the 2008 financial crisis and the movie Big Short. Right
now, he's holding $1.1 billion dollars in short positions, batting against Nvidia and Palanteer. So, he's not just cautious, he is actively batting that these stocks are going to go down. Now,
if if only one of these guys was being cautious right now, that would just be an opinion. But all three of them making
an opinion. But all three of them making defensive moves against the mainstream AI trade is a massive signal to me personally. By the way, my name is Zach
personally. By the way, my name is Zach and I have spent the last decade coaching over 2,000 investors to help them build $10 million plus portfolios.
And here's how I am positioned. Our
approach at Rose is basically a hybrid between Buffett and Bur. We have the patience and the cash and we also have the downside protection. So, first of all, we are holding an elevated cash
position of 50% in the portfolio because we want to have the dry powder to take advantage of market corrections when they come. Just like Buffett, we are
they come. Just like Buffett, we are patiently waiting. Secondly, we are
patiently waiting. Secondly, we are hedging through options. We are
currently short Nvidia and QQQ, very similar to what Bur is doing because if the market corrects, we are protected and making money on the way down. And
third, we have prepared an extensive plan on how we are going to deploy that cash in the coming months because this changing market isn't just a huge risk.
It's going to create some of the best buying opportunities we have seen in many, many years. and we want to be ready to make that move when they show up. So, I'm not telling you to panic and
up. So, I'm not telling you to panic and just sell everything because that's also not what these guys are doing. They're
not panicking. They're simply preparing because there's a massive change coming.
The stock market's fate comes down to one word, speed. No previous technology has ever went after the people who own the stocks, who drive the spending, who are the economy. This is not
fear-mongering. This is purely
fear-mongering. This is purely mathematics. The answer is not to panic.
mathematics. The answer is not to panic.
The answer is to prepare. That's exactly
what we're doing. So, if you are an investor who is not sure about how to navigate these markets, who are very uncertain, you are in the right place.
We help investors with serious capital prepare for exactly these kind of moments. Book a free growth plan session
moments. Book a free growth plan session with us. The links right below this
with us. The links right below this video.
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