If there is a war between Japan and China, it will be the last one

Sanae Takaichi is Japan's first female prime minister, and since her appointment, a New Rift Between China and Japan has emerged. She is also one of the very few national leaders worldwide, if not the only one, who has not received a congratulatory message from China, a gesture that Beijing has rarely extended in its history.

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Today, Clara would like to take you on a journey through Beijing's rage over the Japanese Prime Minister's remarks on Taiwan, which implied military intervention in the case of a possible war between the Chinese mainland and the island.

We have recently published two videos on this topic, and if you haven't watched them, please follow the links in the pinned comments to find them.

In late 2025, Sanae Takaichi became Japan's prime minister, marking a pivotal moment in Japanese politics.

A hardline conservative, sometimes called the "female version of Shinzo Abe," her remarks after taking office quickly chilled Sino–Japanese relations.

In Parliament, she explicitly stated that if China used force against Taiwan, that could constitute what Japan calls an "existential crisis," and Japan might exercise the right of collective self-defence.

Once those words were spoken, China reacted strongly, accusing Japan of bold interference in China's sovereignty and saying the remarks seriously violated the One-China principle.

Takaichi's statement directly linked Taiwan to Japan's national security, a stance Beijing found extremely dangerous.

China responded swiftly and strongly to Takaichi's remarks with robust rebuttals, rather than merely verbal protests.

China's Foreign Ministry summoned Japan's ambassador to China and lodged strong protests over Takaichi's comments regarding Taiwan.

Chinese state media and diplomatic spokespeople stated that Takaichi's remarks "seriously violated international law and the basic norms of international relations," undermining the post-war international order and damaging political trust between China and Japan.

Beijing has been furious after she started the rhetoric.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson posed three questions to Japan: What message are these remarks intended to send to "Taiwan independence" forces?

Do they amount to a challenge to China's core interests?

Where exactly does Japan intend to take Sino–Japanese relations?

China said Japan must reflect on its wartime actions. Takaichi's comments stirred up World War Two grievances, and Beijing warned that this is a dangerous move.

China made its position clear: Takaichi's words crossed China's red lines on sensitive issues.

Before proceeding further, we need to understand Takaichi's Logic and Ambition. Why is she so aggressive?

As Japan's first-ever female prime minister, she has the motivation to outperform her male counterparts.

Japan has historically and conventionally looked down upon women, so she wants to become the country's iron lady.

Challenging China becomes her tactic to attract eyeballs.

To understand this crisis, let us examine Takaichi's motivations and why we say Beijing has seen through her.

Takaichi has long taken a hard line toward China and previously made numerous anti-China statements.

She supports revising Japan's constitution — especially Article 9 — and wants to transform the Self-Defence Forces into a formal "national defence force.

" Her political platform emphasizes strengthening Japan's military capabilities. These facts suggest that she is not a moderate conservative, but rather someone willing to push Japan to be more assertive and proactive on security and military issues.

She has made several dangerous moves to revive the Imperial Japanese Army.

According to several news outlets, Sanae Takaichi's government is reportedly planning to restore old-style military ranks in Japan's Self-Defence Forces, which is widely considered to harm the emotions of Chinese, Korean and other Asian people who suffered from the Imperial Japanese Army's atrocities during the Second World War.

The Japanese government is reportedly rethinking its "No-Nukes" policy.

Multiple sources indicate that Takaichi is considering revising Japan's "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," particularly the clause that prohibits the introduction or transport of nuclear weapons into Japanese territory.

These principles have long been a cornerstone of Japan's postwar nuclear policy, which asserts no possession, no production, and no introduction of nuclear weapons.

Takaichi reportedly believes that adhering too rigidly to the "no introduction" rule limits the deterrent value of the US nuclear umbrella.

For instance, this restriction prevents US nuclear-capable vessels from docking in Japanese ports.

According to reports, the government plans to revisit these nuclear principles when Japan reviews its national security strategy documents, which are expected to be completed by the end of 2026. Some insiders suggest that while Takaichi may maintain the "no possession" and "no production" principles, she might ease the ban on introduction.

Takaichi argues that changing this rule could strengthen Washington and Tokyo's nuclear deterrent.

By allowing US nuclear-armed vessels to use Japanese ports—especially during crises—she believes Japan's security posture would be more robust.

Given the rising regional tensions from countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia, supporters argue that this move is part of a more pragmatic defence strategy.

However, many in Japan oppose revising the non-nuclear principles.

Critics warn that loosening the "no introduction" rule could signify a dangerous shift toward "quasi-nuclear sharing" with the US. They also highlight the moral and historical significance of Japan's experience as the only country to have suffered atomic bombings, noting that the nation's postwar identity has heavily relied on a no-nukes stance.

Furthermore, countries like China and other regional players may interpret this as a significant escalation in security tensions.

Sanae Takaichi is criticized as super dangerous for her stance against China on the Taiwan issue.

She explicitly said, "If something happens to Taiwan, it's Japan's problem," directly linking Taiwan Strait security with Japan's national security.

By framing a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan as a potential existential crisis for Japan, she is making a major strategic calculation. For Beijing, this wording is more than rhetoric; it signals a potential political and military intervention in Taiwan affairs.

Some observers argue that Takaichi is using a tough stance against Beijing to consolidate her standing within the party's conservative faction. Her government may aim to shore up domestic support by strengthening defence and increasing military spending. For an ambitious politician, being tough externally to gain internal traction is a familiar playbook.

However, Historical Burdens and Contemporary Ruptures in Sino–Japanese Relations have made the relationship between Beijing and Tokyo the most difficult one on earth, comparable to or worse than that between Russia and Ukraine.

Beijing's response to Takaichi's remarks on defending Taiwan militarily is more than just words; deep-seated grievances and sensitivities intensify the fallout.

Japan's wartime aggression left deep wounds in China. Beijing often raises these issues and expects remorse. Provocative statements from Japanese conservatives trigger anger in China.

China and Japan base their relations on four key documents covering history, Taiwan, and peace.

Beijing says Takaichi's statements break with these principles. Despite fluctuations, economic and diplomatic ties have persisted, but her aggressive approach threatens this fragile trust.

The Taiwan issue is the most sensitive part of Sino-Japanese relations. When Japan links Taiwan incidents to its survival, China sees it as direct interference. Japan's move to boost military power and collective defence worries China about a deeper shift in Japan's stance.

Given the current trajectory, if the situation is not managed, this dispute could morph into a deeper strategic confrontation.

Beijing has persuaded Chinese tourists to stay away from Japan, and the number of flights between China and Japan has dramatically dropped recently.

There might be a diplomatic escalation and impaired economic and people-to-people ties due to Takaichi's remarks.

If friction persists, both countries may impose new barriers to trade, travel, and exchange. China has reportedly advised citizens not to travel to Japan, signalling a diplomatic warning. Continued distrust will put economic cooperation at risk.

Takaichi's so-called 'existential crisis' is not just talk.

If Japan deems a situation in Taiwan a threat to its survival, the Self-Defence Forces may take action.

China finds this unacceptable. If tensions grow, clashes could occur.

If Japan repeatedly provokes Beijing on the Taiwan issue, the effects will extend beyond bilateral ties and reshape East Asian security. The United States and other regional actors will closely monitor this dynamic, and the international community may grow concerned about Japan's more robust military tilt, while also watching how China responds.

China, Japan, and the world must respond to this situation with caution and reflection.

China firmly upholds the One-China principle, maintaining high diplomatic pressure, while also seeking to keep communication channels open.

As we said in previous videos, the US stands behind Japan, and it has been constantly trying to contain China, possibly using Japan as the next Ukraine in Asia to curb China's rise.

Beijing needs to be tougher and smarter at the same time.

Washington's amateur politicians behave like school bullies, while Beijing's professional leaders should embody the wisdom of Tai Chi to navigate challenges.

Japan merely serves as a pawn, with the real backdrop being a competition between China and the collective West.

Therefore, we suggest that Beijing remain vigilant without turning diplomacy into perpetual confrontation and consider ways to limit harm to economic and people-to-people exchanges, rather than resorting to military conflicts unless necessary.

Japan should handle sensitive language, such as existential crises or survival threats, with extreme care; such rhetoric can easily intensify confrontation.

The United States is not always its friend, and it has a history of abandoning its allies.

The whole island state could become a battlefield because of a stupid woman, and if needed, it should find a moderate leader to replace this lunatic.

Among dozens of millions of Japanese ladies, she may not be the ugliest, but she is the most dangerous, who could drag the country into a disaster.

Taiwan is China's core issue, a red line that Beijing allows no one to cross.

Countries that want to involve themselves in the Taiwan issues should weigh their words and actions to prevent destabilizing the regional balance.

Sanae Takaichi made Taiwan a focal point of a tough diplomatic opening — a highly dangerous signal for Sino–Japanese relations.

Beijing's strong pushback not only reflects its defence of core interests but also demonstrates China's intention to posture in this latest round of diplomatic rivalry.

This crisis reminds us that international politics is not a simple matter of picking sides.

Words matter, but what ultimately shapes the future are actions, strategy, and trust.

The path China and Japan take will affect not only bilateral ties but also the security architecture of East Asia and beyond.

China and Japan can still repair their relationship if both act calmly and seek dialogue.

But more provocations could make this crisis only the beginning, not the end.

China and Japan have a history of hostility that spans nearly a thousand years, and they can resolve their problems once and for all, as some populists on China's social media have claimed.

However, Japan should carefully consider its position. Unless it can relocate its islands from the West Pacific to the eastern side of the Pacific Ocean, China is close and the US is remote.

When Japan does have an existential crisis, no one can guarantee the US troops will not escape as they hastily left Afghanistan and Vietnam.

Whether you are an enemy or a friend of the United States, you are at risk.

However, being a friend of China can offer significant benefits.

As an old Chinese saying goes, "A good neighbour is always better than a distant relative.

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