In 900 Days Capitalism Breaks — And People Enter the “Loss Domain” | Tom Bilyeu Deepdive

In just 900 days, you'll be living through the end of capitalism itself.

Your job, how you earn income, the very way the world determines your economic value. It's all going to be different.

value. It's all going to be different.

Why 900 days? Because that's

approximately how long it will take AI to get to the stage where it can outperform humans on any task that can be done on a computer screen. The white

collar professional college educated jobs that built the middle class will be performed by AI. AI will be faster,

cheaper, and it will scale almost infinitely. There are two fundamental

infinitely. There are two fundamental laws at work. First, game theory, which says any technology that promises an

advantage will be developed at reckless speeds. Second, humans want everything

speeds. Second, humans want everything faster, cheaper, and more reliable. When

something is all three, people will choose it every time. AI promises an advantage, and it is getting faster and

cheaper and more reliable by the minute.

The magnitude of the end of capitalism simply cannot be overstated. The

entirety of how the world works is going to change. Your value in the eyes of the

to change. Your value in the eyes of the market is no longer going to be determined by what you can do because AI will be able to do it better. And that's

going to have massive consequences. Some

are knowable and some are not. But if

you don't wrap your head around what's coming, you're going to get left behind.

So what is coming? Who's it going to help? And who is going to get

help? And who is going to get obliterated? That's what we're going to

obliterated? That's what we're going to talk about right now. Here is a hard truth no one seems to understand. AI is

going to break the economic loop that currently makes you valuable. Everything

in your life outside of love and religion is geared towards you finding a way to add value to the economy. Your

parents sent you to school where you were taught what you'll need to do to get a job. Once you graduate, your job controls the flow of your day, your

week, and your year. The very structure of your life is built around your career, where you live, what you can afford, how long your vacations are,

what kind of health care you have, what you wear, how you wear your hair. It's

all to a shocking degree downstream of how you interface with the world economically. No one likes to think of

economically. No one likes to think of it this way, but from the perspective of how the world works as a system, we're all economic units. You do a thing, you

get paid a wage for that. Your wage then turns into rent, groceries, Netflix, gas, kids clothes, date night, etc. All of those purchases become someone else's

revenue. That revenue lets companies

revenue. That revenue lets companies hire more people, invest in more equipment, launch more products. that

creates more jobs, generates more wages, and sparks more consumption, starting the loop over. And all of your economic power is built around one simple fact.

You're able to trade time for money because smart human labor is hard to come by. And that's the thing. Economics

come by. And that's the thing. Economics

is all about determining the value of scarce things. If something is too

scarce things. If something is too abundant, its value essentially drops to zero. And guess what? AI is going to do

zero. And guess what? AI is going to do to the scarcity of human-like intellectual labor. It's going to make

intellectual labor. It's going to make it extremely abundant and that will drive its value to near zero. Roughly

70% of all task hours in developed economies are already happening on screens and that is the lowhanging fruit for AI displacement. We are not a

society of farmers and factory workers anymore. We are a society of people

anymore. We are a society of people sitting in front of laptops. That is

native territory for AI. It doesn't have to learn how to operate in the physical world to take over that work. It already

lives in the same environment that that work is being done in. That begs the question, what happens to society when tens of millions, perhaps hundreds of

millions, perhaps more, are no longer economically viable? Zoom back out to

economically viable? Zoom back out to the economic loop of labor, wages, consumption, revenue. If companies don't

consumption, revenue. If companies don't need to buy nearly as much labor, they don't pay nearly as many wages. If AI

creates as many new jobs as the industrial revolution did, great. Crisis

averted. But every theory for the AI saturated future that I've heard still requires humans to be uniquely valuable

for capitalism itself to continue to function. And my belief is that the

function. And my belief is that the average human will not be uniquely valuable in an AI future. The best of the best will certainly have a longer

shelf life, but the law of averages says that half of humans are worse than the average person. Even if you'll only

average person. Even if you'll only grant me that half of white collar workers are about to get replaced by AI, it's still going to wipe out capitalism

as we know it. If globalism managed to stagnate American wages for 40 years, which it did, imagine what AI replacing half of white collar workers is going to

do. Wages merely stagnating would defy

do. Wages merely stagnating would defy the physics of money. Far more likely would be wages actively declining or outright disappearing for a huge chunk

of the population. This would arrest consumption since a huge percentage of people would simply not have enough money to buy things. This would force businesses to cut costs, which would

only further accelerate humans being replaced by AI. That's why when consumption falls, you enter a death spiral that becomes almost impossible to pull out of. Now, this isn't me pulling

something randomly out of thin air. If

you saw my interview with stability AI founder E-mod most, this idea is going to sound very familiar to you.

Capitalism is a labor ccentric economic system and it won't survive in its current form when labor is no longer the scarce resource. Society is going to be

scarce resource. Society is going to be forced to reorganize around whatever is going to become scarce next. But the

real question is how fast is the phase transition going to be? Sometimes these

kinds of transitions are slow. Wouldn't

that be nice? But sometimes they're fast and violent. In our case, given how fast

and violent. In our case, given how fast AI is improving, the transition appears that it's going to be brutally fast. If

you don't understand what's going to replace labor as the thing the system cares about, you'll be left trying to sell something the market no longer needs. So, the next question becomes

needs. So, the next question becomes obvious. What will people do to generate

obvious. What will people do to generate money if they can't sell their labor?

And will money even matter? When people

lose their economic footing, they don't become careful and conservative. They

become volatile. We like to imagine that when circumstances deteriorate, people tighten their belts, make rational tradeoffs, and calmly adjust to their new reality. But that isn't what

new reality. But that isn't what actually happens. When people feel

actually happens. When people feel cornered, especially economically, they shift into a completely different psychological mode. a mode Nobel

psychological mode. a mode Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Conaman called the loss domain. Under

stable conditions, people are risk averse. Under threat, they ironically

averse. Under threat, they ironically become risk seeking. If you're headed towards ruin anyway, the logic goes, why not place the bet that might save you?

Even if the odds are terrible, even if the downside is catastrophic, even if the bet itself will accelerate the spiral, you're actively trying to

escape. Desperation rewires the way that

escape. Desperation rewires the way that people relate to risk. That is the lost domain. And people don't end up there

domain. And people don't end up there because they're irrational. They end up there because a serious threat alters their internal model of the world.

Inside the loss domain, the human brain stops valuing safety. It stops

optimizing for stability. It even stops caring about probability. It starts

operating on one primal instinct. Get it

all back in one move. That's where AI is pushing us. And we saw how we behave in

pushing us. And we saw how we behave in this mode on full display in 2020 during COVID. The moment people felt the ground

COVID. The moment people felt the ground shifting beneath them, jobs disappearing overnight, wages falling, the future collapsing into uncertainty, the entire

country turned towards massive speculation. Tens of millions of new

speculation. Tens of millions of new brokerage accounts appeared in a matter of months. Options trading, which most

of months. Options trading, which most people barely understood, absolutely exploded. Meme stocks surged not because

exploded. Meme stocks surged not because the underlying businesses changed, but because people needed a story that felt like salvation. Crypto roared. NFTts

like salvation. Crypto roared. NFTts

appeared out of nowhere and were treated like a lifeline. People weren't

investing, they were gasping for air.

The markets became a pure casino because so many people felt desperate, were in the lost domain, and casinos of all types offered hope when reality felt

bleak. And if you think 2020 was an

bleak. And if you think 2020 was an anomaly of modern behavior, think again.

Look at what happened during the Great Depression. The market collapse didn't

Depression. The market collapse didn't cause people to be cautious. It created

a nationwide gambling culture. Illegal

betting parlors surged. Lotteryies,

horse racing, and numbers games became so widespread, sociologists called them the shadow economy of the desperate.

This is like a hundred years ago. Men

who lost their jobs did not retreat into quiet contemplation and a rebuilding phase. Just like they will do now, they

phase. Just like they will do now, they chased risk because risk was the only remaining lever that felt like it could

change their fate. Whole neighborhoods

were kept afloat, not by wages, but by a constant churn of speculative schemes.

These are different eras, but it's the same psychology. We'll get back to the

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or just click the link below. And now,

let's get back to the show. When labor

collapses, identity and a sense of direction collapse. And when those

direction collapse. And when those things collapse, people grasp for anything that restores the feeling of agency. Now, project that forward into a

agency. Now, project that forward into a world where AI doesn't threaten 5 or 10% of jobs, but massively reduces the

economic value of roughly half of all white collar workers. effectively at the same time. As more and more people lose

same time. As more and more people lose their job and wake up to the reality that they're not going to find a new one, speculation is going to run

rampant, especially if money remains as cheap as it is today. Or, god forbid, we get more STEMI checks. We will be straight back to 2020 yoloing. For that

reason, I'm long on Pokemon cards.

Obviously, I'm kidding. One Piece is a much better investment. Sorry, I could not help myself. But my assumption is that people are going to hurl their money into all kinds of insane

investments just like that, looking to get rich quick and at least for a while, some of it will work because desperate

people with free money gamble. If you

thought the speculation was wild in 2020 or back in the 1930s, you ain't seen nothing yet. Society will begin

nothing yet. Society will begin reorganizing psychologically in response to AI long before we figure out how to

reorganize economically. And while we

reorganize economically. And while we figure it out, that transition is going to be brutal. The 900 day countdown is

to a transition that will be emotional, structural, cultural, and deeply destabilizing. When labor stops being

destabilizing. When labor stops being the thing the economy values, the only thing left with any meaningful scarcity is human judgment. Judgment is the

wisdom of knowing what to build, why it matters, and understanding who something is being built for, and what good even looks like. It's not about effort. It's

looks like. It's not about effort. It's

not showing up and working hard. It's

discernment. The ability to cut through noise and find the best option available when faced with nearly infinite options.

In a post- labor economy, judgment and entrepreneurial savvy will be the things of value. In the traditional economy,

of value. In the traditional economy, society is likely to fracture into four distinct groups. One, people who have

distinct groups. One, people who have both judgment and entrepreneurial abilities. They'll build AI enabled

abilities. They'll build AI enabled companies of one that operate like companies of 50, dramatically reducing the number of people that we need in the

workforce. They'll ride the traditional

workforce. They'll ride the traditional economy until the wheels of capitalism literally fall off. The second group, people with good judgment but no desire

or ability to be an entrepreneur.

They'll become high-V value employees in a world where the ability to guide AI is more important than the ability to perform tasks. They'll be the last

perform tasks. They'll be the last employees standing, but they're going to be very few in number by the time the wheels of capitalism come off the vehicle. The third group, people who

vehicle. The third group, people who have entrepreneurial skills but lack the taste to drive product creation. These

people will either partner with someone who has great judgment or they'll burn out chasing possibilities that never quite work in the marketplace. The

fourth group is everybody else. This

will be the majority of white collar workers. They don't have exceptional

workers. They don't have exceptional taste or entrepreneurial skills or desire. Therefore, they will learn the

desire. Therefore, they will learn the hard way that the new economy doesn't need their labor. The odds they will depend on some form of UBI is basically

100%. And the sad reality is that most

100%. And the sad reality is that most people simply won't adapt. Not because

they can't learn the tools, but because people hate change. What is going to emerge on the other side of the AI transition is a world where very few

things are actually scarce. And given

capitalism is a structure for decentralizing price discovery for scarce goods through open markets, the

very idea of our current economic system doesn't make sense in a world where both intelligence and labor will effectively

be free and abundant. This is one of those things that to capture what a shocking transition this is going to be is extremely difficult. The very frame

of reference that we live inside of tells us that capitalism is a fundamental structure of the world. But

it is not. Things are going to change and it is nearly impossible to see precisely what's going to be on the other side of that. So the question

becomes, what does the transitional economy look like? That we should at least be able to see a little bit better. And how do we make it work to

better. And how do we make it work to our advantage? The people who thrive in

our advantage? The people who thrive in the next 900 days are not going to be the ones who guess perfectly correct.

They'll be the ones who get the direction of travel correct and build an all-weather strategy that will allow them to thrive even as capitalism itself

becomes dysfunctional.

Here's how you do that. Step one,

develop emotional sobriety. People panic

in the face of massive uncertainty and rapid change, but that makes everything worse. It's the one thing you shouldn't

worse. It's the one thing you shouldn't do. Don't make all or nothing bets.

do. Don't make all or nothing bets.

Don't yolo into anything. Stay calm and keep enough cash on hand to take advantage of opportunities which will absolutely present themselves or just

have the ability to survive prolonged economic difficulties and always remain humble in the face of extreme uncertainty. Two, own assets. There are

uncertainty. Two, own assets. There are

no guarantees in life, but the fact that you will get ahead by owning a diversified basket of inflation resistant assets when the government is

running deficits comes close. Plus, if

AI causes the kind of disruption I and many, many others are expecting, the government is going to have to print more and more money to pacify a public

that will be growing more and more uneasy as the job market continues to soften. It's already started. Not only

soften. It's already started. Not only

will the government likely be printing money in unprecedented amounts, but odds are that people will be locked in the lost domain, speculating like mad in the

hopes of finding a path out of their hopelessness, even if that path is a reckless one. The people that are

reckless one. The people that are unemotional and in a position to play the longish game are the ones who are going to benefit from everyone else's

recklessness. Now, I've done countless

recklessness. Now, I've done countless videos on how to invest well when facing an uncertain future. Here's one of them.

You can watch that if you want more information. All right. Three, learn to

information. All right. Three, learn to orchestrate AI, not just use it. I spend

a lot of time teaching entrepreneurs how to use AI efficiently. I've used it at my own company to cut my headcount in roughly half while increasing our

revenue and profits. If you're not going to be an entrepreneur, the goal should be to become indispensable to an entrepreneur so that you're the

last man standing with a salary. Step

four, if you have the stomach for it, build your own thing. With AI, the cycle of company formation and collapse may become very condensed, but that doesn't

mean it's not the perfect time to start a business of your own. that puts you in a position of control and power. And it

has quite honestly never been easier to start a company than it is today. And

I'm talking not by a long shot. This is

as easy as it has ever been before in history. If you don't know where to

history. If you don't know where to start, you can check the link in the comments. I run a course called Zero to

comments. I run a course called Zero to Founder all about how to get started and generate actual revenue. There's no such thing as getting rich quick though. I

will warn you now. But you really can build something that matters without a bunch of money, especially today with AI. Five, create an income stream that

AI. Five, create an income stream that can survive volatility. The next few years are going to be unstable. Markets

will spike and crash. Speculation will

roar. Traditional jobs will wobble and you will be in a much better position if you have assets that offer cash flow or a side hustle that kicks off some cash

rather than just relying solely on your salary. Six, avoid debt. This one is

salary. Six, avoid debt. This one is controversial because debt done well, especially in an inflationary environment, can be magical. But debt

done poorly will end your economic future. Given that the vast majority of

future. Given that the vast majority of people do debt terribly, I advise you avoid it as much as humanly possible and

certainly don't use debt to invest unless you are ninja level. As a PSA, remember this, you will never have perfect information about the future.

Waiting for clarity is the same as standing still. 900 days is less than 3

standing still. 900 days is less than 3 years. For us to be marching towards

years. For us to be marching towards something as profoundly disruptive as the dismantling of capitalism itself is insane. It will be hard, if not

insane. It will be hard, if not impossible, to see around this corner.

That is going to cause most people to freeze, to gamble with reckless abandon because we are all likely to be surprised by the future.

You can't just shrug and say, "Well, capitalism is about to be gone anyway, so why bother?" You've got to deal with a world in transition. And that means

investing based on how things are today, as well as having an eye on the uncertain future. Brace yourself for

uncertain future. Brace yourself for speculative mania and a lot of both hype and fear. Put a plan together that is

and fear. Put a plan together that is unemotional and execute against it.

Don't be overly rigid and definitely don't panic. In 900 days, the world is

don't panic. In 900 days, the world is not going to look anything like the world that we are used to. The era is coming to a close. Now, listen, maybe

EMOD is wrong about the timing, but even if you double it, this is still going to happen way faster than any other transition in history. So, don't waste

time clinging to the collapsing economic order. Build a version of the future in

order. Build a version of the future in your mind. know what you need to do to

your mind. know what you need to do to survive and thrive this kind of disruption. Get into assets, master AI,

disruption. Get into assets, master AI, and never stop playing to win. All

right, if you want to see me explore topics like this in real time, be sure to join me live Wednesdays and Fridays at 6 a.m. Pacific on YouTube, X, Twitch, and Kick. You can join the debate or

and Kick. You can join the debate or just chill in the community. All right,

I'll see you there. If you like this conversation, check out this episode to learn more. In the next 1,00 days, AI

learn more. In the next 1,00 days, AI will not only replace a startling number of humans in the workforce, it will make

the entire structure of our economy obsolete. That is the unnerving

obsolete. That is the unnerving