Is This Where Crypto Catches Up To Stocks? [Trust The Pump?]
By Crypto Banter
Summary
## Key takeaways - **Stock Market Peaks, Crypto Awaits Catch-Up**: The stock market, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones, has reached new all-time highs. The key question now is whether crypto, specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum, will follow suit and 'catch up' to these gains. [00:09], [00:14] - **Bitcoin's $100K Defense is Crucial**: For Bitcoin to potentially catch up to stocks, bulls must defend the critical $100,000 level over the next two weeks. Holding this level is seen as essential for establishing a foundation for future price increases. [00:24], [00:30] - **Low Cash Allocation Signals Bullish Stock Market**: Fund managers globally have the lowest cash allocation in over a decade, indicating they are net long and likely to drive stock prices higher. This follows a significant April correction where cash positions were at their highest. [01:36], [01:41] - **Volume Drop Signals Potential Trap**: Despite price increases, the 7-day moving average of daily exchange volume for Bitcoin continues to decline. This decreasing volume is a warning sign, suggesting rallies may be unsustainable and could indicate a potential trap scenario. [10:00], [10:09] - **November Seasonality Favors Stocks, Potentially Crypto**: Historically, November has provided strong returns for the stock market, with only one minor negative instance since 2018. This positive seasonality for stocks could potentially lead to a bid for Bitcoin and Ethereum. [02:56], [03:02] - **Concentration is Key in Crypto and Stocks**: A small percentage of companies generate the majority of wealth in the US stock market, highlighting the importance of concentrating investments in strong assets rather than broad index funds. This principle also applies to crypto. [06:57], [07:03]
Topics Covered
- Is the Heavily Overvalued Stock Market a Trap?
- The Pareto Principle: Why Only a Few Assets Matter.
- Don't Mistake Quiet for Weakness: Bitcoin's Reloading Phase.
- Trading Advantage: Change Your Bets Mid-Game.
- Short-Term Crypto Pullback: Your November Buy-the-Dip.
Full Transcript
We've been speaking quite a lot about the stock market pushing up to new all-time highs. We said
it's probably an inevitability where we're going to see the stock market breaking out. That goes
for the S&P 500, NASDAQ, as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And that's exactly
what we've seen. The real question is, is this the part where crypto plays catch-up? Because we
saw bulls fight back to close a strong weekly candle defending some very critical levels.
The thesis has really been that we need to see bulls defend $100,000 specifically and not break
below that level over the next two weeks. That will reposition things and set the foundation
and the stage to potentially catch up. And when we say crypto, we're more specifically speaking about
Bitcoin and some of the larger caps like Ethereum because the rest of the cryptosphere is actually
absolutely annihilated, right? Still going down. So, we've made some changes to certain parts of
the portfolio. I'm going to talk about that as well today. Smash the like button and let's get
straight into it. It's a really big week. A lot of key events that are going to be coming up. If you
look at this over here, just outlining the major things coming up this week. We have the interest
rate decision from the Fed. That's going to be on Wednesday. We have, of course, Jerome Powell's
press conference. We have big earnings that's going to be coming out, a lot of them. Trump
meeting the president of China on Thursday. More big earnings coming out. And actually, 20% of the
S&P 500 companies will be reporting earnings this week. A lot of major ones; they're all listed over
here. You're welcome to just screenshot that if you want to have a look at which ones are coming
out when. And yeah, it should bring volatility within the markets. The fund managers around the
world actually also have the lowest allocation to cash in more than a decade, which is pretty
significant. This tells you that they're net long. We spoke about that following the massive April
correction where it was the opposite, where they had the biggest cash position ever, and they're
going to be left chasing prices higher for the stock market. That's essentially what's taken
place, and that's what creates those V-shaped recoveries and leads into price discovery.
But also, with the stock market being heavily overvalued, eventually these guys are going to get
caught off guard, which is why our bias has been to really position more for short-term trading,
right? To move away from the long-term investment approach and rather move into being concentrated,
holding just a couple of coins or a couple of positions, whether that be stock trades,
and just simply ride the wave. Eliminate the risk by moving stops to break even or at least take a
little bit of profit. So, the Warren Buffett indicator hitting a new all-time high, 223%,
meaning it's the most expensive the stock market has ever been. You can see before the 2008 massive
collapse, it was only just over 100% at that point in time. I know a lot of people probably say,
"Well, this thing's broken," but it's probably not, right? Because you can see Warren Buffett
has been scaling out. And personally, I don't want to fade one of the all-time greats. We do expect
that November should be really good for the stock market because if you look at the seasonality for
November over the last couple of years since all the way back in 2020, well, we only had 2018 which
was slightly negative, and that was literally less than a percentage: $0.26$ percent negative.
Otherwise, November does provide some of the best returns. And also, historically, what we've tended
to see with Bitcoin and crypto is that in the post-election year or the post-halving year,
which is this year, November, December is typically where you find the major cycle top. And
this is why I've said that I don't want to be one of those people that's calling the top just yet.
I give the bulls the benefit of the doubt that as long as they hold above $100,000, there is still
the potential to set the foundation to send prices higher. And that's why we'll take each
trade at a time, right? One trade at a time. And the recent trades that we've been in, of course,
have been a long trade. Still holding the Gravity long. We positioned out of the Bitcoin long,
which we took off of the Monday range trade into Gravity. We held that. Gravity broke out into new
highs. And excuse me, Gravity, I mean Zcash. But on Gravity, this trade over here broke into new
highs, and we're up $823$ percent. So, we'll update you on those. We do need to make some
changes over there. Expectation is a very bullish November for the stock market, which means maybe
just maybe crypto can catch a bid, or Bitcoin and ETH can catch a bid over there, sticking with
those majors. There it is, the S&P 500 moving to new highs. And all we've been doing is just
adjusting this risk-to-reward because it all depends on how you approach a particular level.
One area of interest that we're focusing on is, of course, this trend line which is going to be a
major pivot level over here for the stock market. So, I am adjusting the final take-profit and I'm
just going to continue to hold this trade until we hit this trend line over here, which is currently
coming in. If this is under the presumption that it were to happen today, which I'm obviously not
expecting, but just hypothetically, if it did, you're going to hit this trend line at about
7,000. So, at least 7,000 is where we're looking at. Otherwise, alternatively, what we need to see
to close out this long trade, which indirectly is going to affect crypto, is we need to see
some sort of a breakdown below these key SR flip regions, which we said we're now breaking back
through. So, my expectation is even if you do get a pullback over here, you're probably going to
find support over here and then probably continue towards the upside. So, S&P 500 is looking good.
Dow Jones is also looking good. And again, I'll just continue to extend this target over here.
No need to close this position. Initially when we took it, we were targeting for 3R, right? A $3:1$
risk-to-reward ratio. You can pretty much same thing just continue to ride this up. You can
use a couple of Fib extensions as well towards those $1.618$ and the $2.618$ Fib extension. So,
I'll leave it as it is for now, but I'm not going to be closing this position. Just hold that, ride
it until you see some proper breakdowns. We have the NASDAQ with the $161.8$ Fib extension coming
in from the initial lows would be a $61\%$ move. So, that's targeting 648. And then we also have
the US small cap 1000 index also breaking above that support resistance level and just marking up.
Everything looks super, super strong over here, but there are some underlying factors that we need
to look at for Bitcoin specifically, mostly around the volume chart, which I'm going to show you
today, right? So, this would provide a short-term pullback, maybe a little bit of a trap scenario,
and then you could probably have an opportunity to reallocate, trying to play that catch-up trade
as per the title. You can actually vote over here. Are we so back? Yes. $53\%$ of you believe we are.
$41\%$ believe it's a trap. And then we have the comments from the peanut gallery, which is only
$6\%$ of you. So, I do think that this chart also is very, very, very telling, right? Just $3\%$ of
the companies have generated all the net wealth in the US stock market since 1926, which just shows
you again the importance of remaining concentrated and longing strength, right? Picking the right
stocks, the right cryptos, and placing your bets in the right place, as opposed to going for some
kind of an index fund approach where you're going to, you know, pray and spray where you're just
going across a massive section of different coins, right? Which if you looked at, I did have a tweet,
but I don't want to throw anyone under the bus, but some influencers have started to post and
tweet how down they are, like being honest, saying how down they are because they have this massive
crypto portfolio of all these different things. They're like $70\%$ down. And we spoke about that,
right? We said that 2025 was probably going to be hard for investors, long-term spreads,
people that have put money across a broad sector of portfolios. And it was going to be, I don't
want to use the word, traders' paradise, but this is the terminology that gets thrown around. I
wouldn't call it paradise for traders, but let's just say a much better experience for active
traders that are positioned in things that have strength and are doing what I've said I'm doing,
which is just taking each trade at a time and just riding the wave. And if you start to see weakness,
you take profits and you exit the position, right? So that's essentially what we've been doing. And
I actually want to discuss this at length today. If you want to come to the workshop,
it's going to be for Whale School. We'll specifically be covering this section over here,
which is going to be portfolio structuring, right? How should you be positioned? How should
you structure your portfolio? Remember the Pareto principle, which is the $80/20$ rule.
It's only $20\%$ of the people in the world that will make $80\%$ of the world's wealth. Or you
can even skew that as far as $0.1\%$, right? It's the same thing in the stock market. Look at that:
$3\%$ of companies generated the majority of the wealth within the stock market. So, we'll discuss
that today, how to structure your portfolio. Also talk about things like trade execution, liquidity,
volatility, which I'll also mention a little bit today because it is very relevant. So, first
let's have a look at the Whale Trades website in terms of the long to short ratio. Surprisingly,
it's pretty balanced. I would have actually expected this would be skewed much more on
the long side, but you only have a $0.17\%$ skew of shorts in the market. So, relatively balanced,
which shows equilibrium. It shows that things aren't necessarily getting out of control yet.
Prices can probably squeeze a little bit higher. We'll talk about the positioning in a moment. So,
the Fear and Greed Index has spiked up quite significantly now to $51\%$, market in doubt. Not
sure what comes next. The 24-hour liquidations. Well, here you got a big short squeeze, right?
372 million. So, we're now at half a billion. This is quite sizable compared to what we've seen over
the last couple of weeks. Very, very, very decent over there. But here's one of your warning signs.
Remember, we've spoken a lot about the volume, and just remember this chart when I go into the
daily chart on TradingView to showcase what the volume is doing. But the daily exchange volume,
7-day moving average continues to creep towards the downside. It's really, really important that
we start to see this around this $50$ billion mark, which is more or less where it's approached.
We're now at $52.27$ billion, which means kind of now in the next day or two, you want
to start to see this thing turning a corner and hopefully rolling back towards the upside over
there. This is a big warning sign in itself. It tells you that rallies are unsustainable
until such time as this can pick back towards the upside. In terms of the ETF flows, well,
this week that we just had closed positive on the ETF flows. We had a few days of negative,
a couple of days of negative over there for Bitcoin flows. ETH flows were negative. Let's
look at the daily. So, this has been pretty good for a reset over here on ETH. You've
had quite a few negatives, and that's why ETH is kind of positioned almost better. I would
say there's more opportunity, and I'll show you that when we get onto the ETH chart. So,
just be careful of those major economic events coming out. If we look at the weekly flows,
BNB still continues to have a lot of inflows. Zcash, which has been the long trade that we took,
also a lot of inflows over there. And then the rest I just say are randomized, right? But net
sellers across the board still for the majority of other things. And there is also a big whale
who is on Hyperliquid still holding a short position of around 3 billion, right? So, that's
something to probably pay attention to with these warning signs. Will he get liquidated or not? So,
we know we're on the cusp of a really big move based on the Bollinger Band width percentile. And
if the move if price continues to hold towards the upside, this is probably going to reset and then
prep for a bigger move. And I thought this was a really good tweet from Stock Money Lizards over
here. It just explains the various different phases and builds the bullish hopium case,
which lines up with kind of what I'm looking at. If we can hold above $100,000, it's going to be
significant. So, if we just read this, just take a minute to read this and look at the MACD as well.
He's looking at the 3-day time frame, which I'm looking at the 5-day over here, but it kind of,
of course, the 3-day will fire off before the 5-day. And he says over here, "The calm phase of
the cycle. Every major BTC rally begins the same way. Volatility contracts before you lead into
expansion. Right now, the Bollinger Bands around the 34 EMA are tightening, which is a signal of
energy building up in the system." That's a really good point, right? That tells you there's energy
that's building up. So, these recontraction phases which you go through, which is why I've said
holding that $100,000 level is so critical because that still allows for the energy to rebuild up in
preparation for the next big move. Which is why I said I'm not one of those people that's willing
to call a top just yet. Timing-wise, yes, we've met the timing cycle top in the sense that we
were targeting around 1,070 days around there. The longest cycle was 2017 from low to top was
1,167 days, right? We've now surpassed that. So, timing-wise, we've met the top, but price-wise,
we haven't seen the breakdowns that you need to in order to truly confirm that a top is in. So,
this could just be a reset building up energy in the system. As long as you hold above $100K,
that's kind of the invalidation. He says, "At the same time, downside momentum is losing steam. The
MACD histogram shows that divergence over there, and we call this a contraction phase. Volatility
compresses, emotions start to cool off," right? We saw the market reposition into more fear. We were,
you know, last month down to $33\%$, then we went into extreme panic at $29\%$. Yesterday we were at
$40\%$, and now suddenly we're back in doubt. So, you're getting this reset within the market. And
then he says, "And positioning resets before the next directional phase actually takes place." So,
the takeaway of this: don't mistake quiet for weakness. Compression is often the market's way
of reloading before volatility returns. So, when you're in that reloading phase,
that recontraction phase, things do get a little bit sketchy, right? It's anyone's game. It could
be the bulls, it could be the bears. It's very divided $50/50$ as per the polls. Go to the polls
over here in today's video and you'll see exactly that. But you must have key pivot levels where you
see certain reclaims take place where you now start to give the odds or the bias towards the
other team. And I've always said this: use this analogy like teams, right? Imagine you could
place a massive bet on two teams, right? So, of course, there are two teams versus each other,
whatever is your favorite sport in the world, but imagine you were allowed to reposition your
bet during the actual game. You're obviously not allowed to do that, right? You place your
bets before the game takes place. The players go onto the field, they start the game, and one team
starts to win. You're not allowed to now flip-flop and change your bet, right? But in trading, you
can. That's the beauty of it, right? In trading, you can be live in the game, and you can flip-flop
from one team to the other when you have evidence that the other team's starting to win. So, this
is essentially what it comes down to. That choppy phase of recontraction makes it really difficult
to see which team's going to win. And we're not at that point yet, I just want to be clear,
but you're starting to see the signs of the shift that could potentially just maybe, maybe line up,
of course, with a strong November for the stock market, which could catch a bid for crypto and
Bitcoin. And if Bitcoin doesn't, though, that becomes a big warning sign. But I'll show you
in the short term how you may still get a bit of a pullback before things take off. There's still
a trap scenario that could be unfolding. But the higher time frames are looking good in the sense
that you've recovered above the 21 EMA, which is the first thing that we want to see, and it's
still angled towards the upside. If we closed this week, this previous week that we just closed now,
red, well, you would have actually turned that 21 EMA towards the downside, and then your next major
support levels were coming in at $100,000, which we spoke about why that was all so significant,
right? We really wanted to see this level hold, the 50 EMA, the key $100,000 psychological
round number. We have the $0.5$ Fib level when considering the price from the major lows to the
current highs. And the odds are beginning to shift very slowly. It's a slow move as things transition
and turn, but slowly things can shift in the bulls' favor with a couple more green weeks over
here. Your only real bearish factor at that point is going to be the stop and reversal indicator,
right? Which means like being on a certain team, you're getting live data, and you're allowed to
change your bets, right? Which is a good thing. So, one of the things we wanted to see was that
reset with the RSI in the weekly time frame. And we said that we want to see a little bit
more chop around here over the coming weeks into the first week of November. And then the pendulum
will swing, right? I've often used that analogy of the pendulum swinging from the bears to the bulls,
from the bears to the bulls. And we see the swing over about a two-week period, which
will often line up with the bull and bear flag or, excuse me, the bull and the bear moons, right? So,
that bull moon is going to be coming into play on I think it's the fourth or the $5$th of November,
and that lines up with that seasonal period which we're expecting to be very strong for the stock
market. So, this is your weekly time frame. We still need the MACD to cross back towards the
upside. That hasn't happened. But the good news is when you look at this, this is lightening,
right? And you're at least getting a bit of a high-low print as well on the MACD. So, you need
those moving averages to cross back up. That's one of the things we're looking at. And the main thing
I'm focusing on here is this RSI. I would love to actually see, you know, one more test. We got
the 50. I'd love to see one more test of that RSI into the 50 and even close there. And that
should really set the stage for November where you can get a bit of a stronger move, and then real
crazy season happens if you can break like as per the yellow lines over there, the yellow drawing,
if you can break above that down-sloping trend line. Okay. So, weekly is saying potential for a
turn over here. Here is your daily look. You are working also on almost a nine top, which would
come tomorrow if today's green and the next day is green. Well, then you're going to have a TD
sequential nine top, which suggests exhaustion. Right now, you have reclaimed the level that we
said the level to reclaim was Tuesday's high. So, I'm going to delete that. That's a good thing.
You're above your RSI pivot level. But this would be the area to be cautious. This is your order
block that led to the breakdown. So, you can imagine if tomorrow puts in a really, really
strong green candle in the shorter term, in the medium term, you would expect that to get faded,
right? You would expect some sort of a pullback. That pullback into a higher low within this yellow
box probably provides a great opportunity. So, all we were looking for timing-wise was between,
we keep adjusting this box towards the right-hand side, but the end point of that is coming in on
the $4$th of November, which is where we expect the next bull moon to print. So, all we wanted
to see from bulls is, "Hey, whatever you do during this time period, so between then and the $4$th of
November, is just don't lose $100,000." That's all we want to see from you. We want bulls to defend
100. So, even if you came down, it's okay, just don't break down and close below $100,000 given
this move. This now drastically increases the probability that that will not happen. And despite
the fact that we have this bearish order block over here, which is going to be a resistance zone,
all this means is you're going to be provided probably with an opportunity, some sort of a
rally. Even if it goes up into here, you'll get a throwback. And the great news is it lines up
with our timing thesis that you're probably then going to put in some sort of a higher low. So,
this is going to be the plan essentially leading into the first week of November. It then shifts
the narrative into more a buy the dip opportunity where you're going to give the bulls one more
opportunity to run it up off of that high low into new all-time highs alongside the stock market into
a very bullish November, which lines up with the on-point seasonal period for when you would expect
the markets to top, right? The final phase of the bull run, if you will. And we'll readjust,
right? As per new information, we'll continue to monitor things very carefully.
But in the extremely short term, just lining this up with that bearish order block with the timing,
which is still not completely safe, we don't have the bull moon yet, is the volume. We've
spoken about this, so just pay attention to this. I told you, follow each of the green candles and
then the green volume profile. And what you'll notice, and we this is what we've been focused on
for a couple of days or weeks, if you will, since the $12$th of October. We said, "Look at this. You
got this move up. Look at the volume, right? Look at the volume over there. Now look at this move
up and look at that volume. It's even lower. Now look at this move up, even more significant, and
look at that volume. It's going lower," right? The volume is dropping off significantly. Which again,
I told you, remember this chart, you line it up with this. This tells you the bulls are not out
the woods just yet. But the good news is that price action in the form of higher highs and
higher lows or reclaiming key horizontal levels is more significant than all the funny underlying
things like momentum oscillators, volume, blah, blah, blah, all these things, right? The actual
candlesticks and what they're doing is the most important thing because that's how you get paid.
You buy here, you sell here, you made money. Of course, it doesn't matter what all those momentum
oscillators are doing underneath, right? So, at the end of the day, use this to your advantage.
What this means and how you would use this to your advantage is as follows: Well, the price has moved
high, and it's reclaimed some key levels, which is a good sign. You're coming into the bearish order
block, which theoretically would, if you're a low time frame trader, this would be where you'd be
looking to take profits on longs and position into shorts with a tight stop-loss above. But
what I would say is that shorting the market is very tricky, and most people are not going
to do it successfully, and you're going to lose money. So, your better approach is to watch for
some sort of a rejection based on the volume being the warning sign and let that rejection serve as
a buy the dip opportunity into a high low. And if you get that high low, that's where things reset
and bulls have the opportunity to take control. As the pendulum swings from bearish back into bullish
for November, and November's strong for the stock market, will crypto catch a bid? Most of the time
it does follow the stock market, right? So, will this be that one time that it diverges away? Well,
if it does, it's over. Okay, so we've spoken a lot over here. I hope you're all paying attention and
taking notes. The other thing that lines up with this low volume to suggest that, well,
you might very well get a big pullback from here, but that pullback leads into a high low is the
USDT dominance, which we've been focused on for quite some time. And I told you all of last week,
I'm sticking to the level that needs to be taken out to be more convinced that the bulls are back
in control. And if we go to the USDT dominance, that level still is this. This is still the level.
And I said there's a good chance that you're going to pull back into the golden cross between
the 50 and 200 EMA. And you're now pulling back into that. And I said the first test of that is
more likely going to lead to a bounce. And you know what that means? A bounce of that means
that the rest of the market pulls back, and it probably coincides with the TD sequential nine
top tomorrow with a drop-off in volume and the bearish order block that's all coming into play
over here. So, that is essentially the shorter term plan, right? USDT dominance. Very likely,
nothing's guaranteed in life, but very likely that you put in a bit of a bounce. That bounce leads
to the pullback on Bitcoin, on other things, the rest of the market. But that pullback,
if this leads into a lower high, leads into a higher low across the board. That means that
you'll buy the dip. And if this tanks down here, that leads into that final November pump. Okay,
that is the plan. That is the plan. That's what I'm reading the market right now. Of course,
if this nukes through here, then we'll readjust the plan where you're going to look for some sort
of acceptance gained underneath, and that changes things, right? Let me know in the comments if
that makes sense to you before we continue because we've now spoken about a lot. Okay,
I hope I made that crystal clear. If you enjoy that, if that makes sense, please do like this
video. It helps to get the show content out. And then we'll go into the trades, right? Cool. So,
drop a number one in the chat if that makes sense. Drop a number two in the chat if that doesn't make
sense. And drop a three if you're just a troll. So, give me a one, two, or three. Drop a one if it
makes sense. Drop a two if it doesn't make sense. And if you're just a troll, drop a three. Okay.
So, give me a one, two, three. And that's quicker. Let me just see what everyone thinks over here, if
that helps, and we're all on the same page. Okay. All right. Okay. Cool, cool, cool. It looks like
everybody is on the same page. I'm glad to see all the trolls. Welcome, welcome to all the hagglers
and trolls. Okay. Let's have a look at a couple of other things over here. So, also by the way guys,
if you want to discuss the portfolio structuring and you want to join the workshop, you do need to
sign up to Whale School. Just very, very, very quickly, this will be your last chance to get
in to unlock full access. How do you do it? Just quickly have a look over here. All you have to
do is sign up to Blofin. You get a sign-up bonus. There's a little green thing. That's how you know
you're at the right link. Click that. Only these links will be verified. There's a video that shows
you how to get your sign-up bonus. Once you've done that, you'll go into your Blofin account.
At the top, you'll have a user ID. Copy that user ID. Go through to the Whale School page
and say Unlock Access. Unlock access to Whale School. You'll come to the sign-up page over
here. This is just for anyone new. Very quickly explaining this. It will show sign up. You've
already signed up. Zoom in. It says, "I already used the link." Click on that. Unlock using
that user ID. Go to the dropdown. Choose Blofin. Submit your user ID. Click submit. I've already
signed up with this ID so I can't do it twice. And that's it. You're in, right? Deposit $100,
join the workshop. Next month, we do it all over again. We start from A to Z in those workshops,
right? All righty. So, that's the first thing. Let's go into the liquidity heat maps, right? So,
you saw price run through the top liquidity over here on the weekly scale. That's about 79 million
that got liquidated, which is why we saw those short squeezes. So, if we go over here, that's why
we saw 372 million of shorts getting taken out. And we said when you do that, you want to assess:
are you putting in a swing failure pattern, which means you're rejecting from that liquidity sweep
where you took the liquidity in terms of moving into that yellow area, or are you holding and
defending that? Right now, you're holding and defending that, which is a good sign. So, that's
the first good sign. Let's look on the 24-hour period. The liquidity is now building below. So,
pay attention to this. We always look on the daily. Anything above 25 million in liquidation
leverage on a daily is a significant amount that becomes a draw for price to move towards. So,
that price level is coming in at about $112,000. You can see Bitcoin right now is trading at about
$115,000 to $116,000. So, if you pull back based off of the low volume, assess how price comes into
this in the coming days and what the number is. If the number's over 25 million, these are late
longs chasing price with a liquidation price slightly below. That becomes your buy the dip,
right? We've seen also on the High Block Capital the deltas are going very positive, which shows
you that there are definitely longs that are starting to chase price here on everything:
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, SUI, Sonic, and AA. Okay, so they all gone positive over there.
Okay, total holding up. That's all good. We're going to skip that. We don't have too much time
today. I have updated you guys throughout the week. First, we started off. We were looking
for the Bitcoin trades off of the Monday range. It's going to be the same thing. First, we need
Monday's range to play out this week, and then we'll find the opportunities off of that. Now,
my suspicion will be that the Monday range trade for this week, so last week it was all longs. This
week it's probably going to be shorts based on everything I've shown you because the daily volume
is dropping off. You're coming into the daily order block, bearish order block where you'd
expect a rejection to take place. The 7-day moving average is coming down. We have a lot of economic
things coming up. So, in actual fact, this Monday range, once we've printed the Monday range,
which cannot be done until tomorrow, right? Just to be clear, guys, you have to wait for
Monday to finish to have your Monday range. Last week, we took all the longs. They all played out.
We start off with Bitcoin. There it was Bitcoin. And I took the trade live in the Discord. I told
everyone what I was doing. Started to scale out. Closed $25\%$ closed, closed, closed,
closed, closed. Took more profits. And then we started to look for the Zcash trade based
on the ascending triangle, which I said a whole voice note explanation to everyone below. That
Zcash looks primed to move higher. And we entered into that trade at $240. And now, as you can see,
we're up massively, right? So, we are up $800\%$ to $900\%$. Probably get $1,000$ percent. I have
been scaling out of this position incrementally, just taking $25\%$ profit at a time. You have been
updated if you're in the Whale Room group. But so far that trade has played out very, very well. So,
we're going to look for more trades, right? We are going to look for more trades. There's the setup
playing out. We're still targeting $465$. So, I'm going to probably line up my profit-taking
on this with the thesis on Bitcoin because Bitcoin will drive all the markets. So, it depends what
happens over today and tomorrow. I'm hoping that we continue to expand higher today and tomorrow
into that TD sequential nine top, and hopefully this reaches $465$ by then, which means it's
met the measured move target and we can take full profits. So, this account, unbelievably, you know,
we started this account, it was like $900$. If you look at the bottom over here, the initial margin
for this trade was only $220, which means we've over 10xed this trade already to overall 3x the
trading account. It's so unbelievable what you can do with leverage when you are responsible.
And the only reason that we're doing it on here is to get those points, right, for the portfolio. So,
right now I'm over $1,000 anyway in estimated airdrop points for the Gravity token. So, if
you want to participate, remember guys, for anyone that's new here, use that link, join our team in
Gravity. You get a multiply bonus by joining into my team. The link is over there. Take the trades.
Look, you're a bit late on Zcash. You can't take the trade. I believe the mind share is reaching
max capacity at the moment. All the random crypto WhatsApp groups and things. I mean,
everyone's talking about Zcash. I think that we've hit peak euphoria on Zcash, and it's probably time
to start to close the position, which is why I'm taking incremental profit. So, currently,
as I updated Whale Room, I am essentially $58\%$ out of this trade. I've got like another $40\%$
left, and I'll probably be closing the rest off between today and tomorrow. All righty. Next,
let's go into altcoins. Ethereum still looks good. What did I tell you? Remember what I said
last week? I said, "Yes, this looks bad." But a couple of green weekly candles in a
row in the slow grind and fight for higher prices once you get above $4,000 is going to look really
good. And as you can see, it's starting to now look like an SR flip. A big previous
resistance in the form of a range high breakout now into support. A big resistance in the form of
this triangle breakout as well now flipping into support. So, I said I would personally remain
quite concentrated. Again, the way that the stock markets work. $3\%$ of the companies generated
all the net wealth in the US stock market since 1926. The Pareto principle still holds true for
everything in life. Not just the stock market, but crypto and everything. Okay, and everything,
right? So, look it up if you want to learn more about the Pareto principle. I highly recommend
that you learn more about that if you don't know it already. So, the measured move for this
is huge. The measured move off of the rectangle for ETH breaking out will take it to like $6,500,
$6,600, which is why we consolidated a lot of the positions on Pionex. These are the trades that we
had been taking. We consolidated a lot of that into ETH. So, we're up about $10\%$ which also
into a BTC long up $7.26\%$. I did update Whale Room this morning as well, which I just want to
share with the rest of you. We were down quite a lot on Plasma, which is the ticker XPL, and I
think we were down like $60\%$ to $70\%$. Over the course of the weekend on Saturday, I added margin
into that position to reduce the average entry. We got the trade within like only a $5\%$ loss based
on the Saturday morning trade and we got a pump on Sunday. I have consequently closed XPL for a
very tiny loss, minuscule, like $5\%$. So, that trade worked out, right? That trade worked out,
I would say, to take what was $60\%$ to $70\%$ loss to only a $5\%$ loss by reducing the average
on Saturday. That trade is closed. So, I am out of XPL. These are currently the positions that I'm
in. And let me just fix this so I can move my head so you can all see everything. There it is. So,
we're in BTC, we're in ETH, we're in Pump. We added into Pump as well. It's going very,
very well. We're holding the ASA position. No changes over there. Remember the flows still
coming into the BNB ecosystem. And then we have AVAX which we're down a lot on. We reduced that
trade as well. And now, I guess we have a decision to make. We've got this one pretty much close to
break even based on the adjustment to AVAX on Saturday morning. So, do we hold this or not?
I want to be in strength. I want to hold things that have relative strength. Even Pump is a bit
sketchy, right? Pump, we said, "I don't expect it to V-shape to new all-time highs, but you can have
a beautiful rally into a bearish order block." So, let's have a look at that. Let's have a look
at that. So, here was Pump, right? This is what I said for Pump, and we'll move on to the daily.
I said that you could rally up here, but this all becomes a profit-taking zone. So, that's
a question. Should we continue to hold Pump? Theoretically, this was running at a small loss,
and we're now in profits. So, should we just close this bot? Do we just close this bot? You guys
let me know. Give me a one if we should close it. Give me a two if you want to hold Pump. For AVAX,
though, I want to go to the chart and really consider if this one should be held. So, you are
at key support. There it is. Super key support. It did get ugly, but you know, if I were opening
a fresh entry today, a fresh new trade, would I be longing AVAX over here? And I don't think I would.
I think that probably that's a major low for AVAX. Probably you don't really get daily candle closes
below $167, but also probably AVAX chops like this before making a move higher. So, consequently, the
job was to add margin on Saturday to reduce the average entry to get this thing closer to break
even. I don't need it anymore. We are done, like a $2\%$ loss. Nothing. Now, everything is in profit.
Okay. So, some of you say close Pump. I'm going to leave it for a little bit longer. I'll monitor it
over the course of today. The positions that I'm in right now: BTC, ETH, Pump, and ASA. Let this
be a lesson, right? I think that any of the moves that happen now is a great opportunity for you to
consolidate a lot of your portfolio. So, not you don't need to be holding 50 coins. You should be
really concentrated to only a couple of positions as we reach the end point of the crypto cycle.
Let's say hypothetically, even if price rallied for another six months, well, I would still rather
be holding only three or four positions. Maybe for me personally, I'll probably only be holding like
one or two with the majority of my capital. But if I were to extend it to an extreme point, I would
kind of set like a hard limit rule where I'm not allowed to go over five positions. Just choose the
best five positions. Okay. All right. Matt says, "I'm the best advisor in the game." Just remember
to put in brackets there, not financial advisor in the game, but thank you very much for that.
All right, cool guys. So, we've gone through that. I just wanted to give you these important updates.
So, to be clear, the actionable things that I'm that, well, I'm doing it if you want to copy me
is I've been slowly scaling out of that Gravity position. So, just taking incremental profits
on this massive trade, $25\%$ of the $25\%$ at a time. And as per my little example to Whale Room,
taking $25\%$ here and there, which is now three times in a row, doesn't mean that I'm $75\%$ out.
So, if you assume I had 100 Zcash and I took $25\%$ three times, that's not $25 + 25 + 25$
equals minus $75$ from the 100. But rather, it's $100$ minus $25\%$ is 75 Zcash left. Then you take
that 75 and you minus $25\%$. Now you have $56.25$ Zcash. Then you take $56.25$ minus another $25\%$.
So, therefore, I have $42\%$ of the trade still open. Just to make that clear, every time I say I
take $25\%$, I'm literally just going on here like this. I'll show you. I'm just going on here like
this. And I am saying where is it? Limit. I'm going limit. There you go. And I'm just taking
from the net value, and I'm just saying Close 25% over here. That's what I'm doing. Okay,
just to be clear. All righty. So, what else? Okay, ETH/BTC still looks good, and it's also rounding
out over here. It may not even make it into the $0.382$. That probably was the test, which is
why I have consolidated a lot of this portfolio into ETH specifically. You can see this is a much
bigger position, 16K. It's the largest of these all of these positions over here. And that's for
that reason. So, I'm trying to be concentrated over here. So, we're summarizing everything.
$25\%$ we're taking out of there. We closed a couple of positions over here. The expectation
is to continue to profit take on longs into today and tomorrow. And then we're potentially going to
take a short trade off of the Monday range once we print the Monday high and low tomorrow or the next
day. We're going to look for a sweep of the Monday high, and we're probably going to short that down.
That short when it closes out is probably going to lead to the buy the dip opportunity for
longer-term trades that line up with the weekly that could trade into new all-time highs. So,
I hope all of that makes sense. And if you want to be on the same page, you know, just show up every
day. That's it. Just show up every day. I'll update you each step of the way. If you want
to copy these bots, that's also available over here on Pionex. Just click that link and then
use that Blofin if you want to come to the Whale School event later today. So, I think that's all
we have time for today, guys. I do appreciate each and every single one of you. A very informative,
important show to update you on. Like the video if you got value from it. Share it with a friend,
and I will see you on the next one, which is tomorrow. Have a good day, and cheers for now.
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