Jiang Xueqin: Europe Is Sleepwalking Into War With Russia

Well, to what extent do they think that American plan could be a recipe for, I guess uh reversing the decline of the United States? Because

States? Because if I would look towards the future of the US versus Europe, you know, I would want to see what made them successful to begin with.

And uh well well, which of one of these variables are still present? It looks as if the US, though, it would have more to fall back on, um, as opposed to the Europeans at the

moment with, you know, this de-industrializing economies, uh, yeah, their their lack of cohesion, uh, among the different states. Uh, overall,

I don't see a good economic model, uh, uh, even a clear place in the world as the world, uh, is now multipolar.

Uh, so, how do you see those two, well, I wouldn't call the Europeans giants anymore, but, uh, they they these two actors?

Yeah, so, I think the United States wants the Europeans to go fight the Russians.

And the there's no appetite among the European public to fight this war. Um,

and what's going to happen is that the, um, European political leadership is going to sleepwalk into a war with, uh,

Russia. Um, possibly by sending in

Russia. Um, possibly by sending in special forces in the beginning to aid the Ukrainians. But eventually, you will

the Ukrainians. But eventually, you will have a conscription. Uh, you will have young men be conscripted to fight this pointless war in the trenches of

Ukraine. This will lead to,

Ukraine. This will lead to, um, political revolution in in Europe.

And the reality is, and, um, is people are sleeping sleepwalking into tragedy and disaster.

Um, it's almost like on remote control.

It it it's almost like a zombie political system that they have in Europe nowadays. And they do this not

Europe nowadays. And they do this not because they hate Russia. They They do this not because the Americans are forcing them to do this. They do this because

it's a path of least resistance. Because

because it is too hard conceptually and mentally and psychologically for them to seek an accommodation with Russia. They've been

In their minds, they believe that Russia is the great Satan and they have to defeat Russia. So, it's a lack of imagination.

Russia. So, it's a lack of imagination.

It's a lack of political will.

It's just a lack of energy now. I mean,

the reality is that the Europeans are controlled by these bureaucrats who are looking forward to their huge pensions and who spend most of, you

know, their day and their time planning their vacation.

And so I mean Europe is just an ossified bureaucracy right now.

They're just sleepwalking into into the disaster and there's no way around it.

No, well, what you suggest or is the need for domestic political change.

Do you see it? Because I can kind of interpret the current events in two ways. On one hand, you see the political

ways. On one hand, you see the political leadership being well, weakened severely. That is it's not just

severely. That is it's not just unpopular. It has a legitimacy crisis.

unpopular. It has a legitimacy crisis.

On the other hand, whoever seems to replace the former ones, for example, the best case would be in the UK where Starmer is effectively, you know, replaced with

younger Starmer, but more or less the same. It's just a facelift.

And one gets the impression even in France, if Macron would give a way to someone like Le Pen, would she really be that different?

How I mean Do you Do you see simple elections or it has have to be a shift like a regime change essentially, shift in the entire political system.

I think Europe is heading to a lot of trouble. I think that a lot of

trouble. I think that a lot of opposition in Europe is controlled as you point out.

And so you look at Spain.

So, a couple week weekends ago, there was 50,000 there were 50,000 migrants who flooded Ceuta, which is an enclave of Spain on

the African continent. And this is something that was coordinated and directed by Moroccan authorities as a sort of political leverage. And this

put tremendous pressure on a left-wing coalition led by Pedro Sánchez in Spain.

And so, you can imagine that given all this pressure, um they'll probably lose the election to

who? Vox. And the leader of Vox has

who? Vox. And the leader of Vox has proven to be a pro-Zionist, pro-Israel, pro-war individual. So, it's kind of

pro-war individual. So, it's kind of absurd situation where if you opposed the American empire, they will fund opposition groups, and then

they will use all their resources to undermine your credibility and put tremendous pressure on your population.

And so, there's still a lot of um uh tools that the empire has in their kit to impose their will on European

populations. So, and I I I think that

populations. So, and I I I think that for the Europeans in the next 10 years, um they will be stuck doing the bidding

of the American empire and Zionist forces. And this is not a very um

forces. And this is not a very um optimistic future for the for the Europeans. The reality is that we we

Europeans. The reality is that we we have society society in decline and the United States and Europe are very much societies in decline. It is impossible to arrest the decline. It's only a

question of like how fast does it die?

Well, if you look at the again, the declining great power will engage in more wars.

One of them, of course, is the the the Ukraine war.

How how do you Again the the the Europeans will be more dependent on the United States as long as this war goes on, but at the same time, how long

can this war really goes go on because at the moment it's escalating quite fast within the format of only being Ukraine.

If again, in a few months time now, Ukraine begins to collapse and there's I'm not saying it would happen this winter of 26, but

but nonetheless, one wants to see huge problems on the front line.

The manpower issue, the obviously now don't have air defenses anymore. The the

Russians have decided to retaliate heavily against the NATO escalations and Ukraine escalations by really pummeling

Ukrainian cities and even putting a naval blockade on along its entire Black Sea coast. So,

it doesn't seem very stable anymore.

That is this ideal scenario for the United States and the Europeans where the front lines would remain somewhat unchanged and the Ukrainians and Russians would just gradually bleed each

other white. This appears to be coming

other white. This appears to be coming to an end as we seem to be reaching a breaking point. So, how how do you see

breaking point. So, how how do you see this war progressing because it's it seems too soon for the Europeans to send in their own public. There's

there's no willingness. Even, you know, some of the most Russophobic countries still don't want to send their own men in yet, it seems.

So, this is not a war between Ukraine and Russia. If it were a war between if

and Russia. If it were a war between if it were if it were a war between Ukraine and Russia, this war would not have started in the first place. Zelensky would have signed a treaty with Russia from day one to

avoid conflict. This is clearly a war

avoid conflict. This is clearly a war between NATO and Russia. Zelensky is

clearly a paid actor, literally a paid actor. He's a proxy for for NATO.

actor. He's a proxy for for NATO.

And you're absolutely right in that the Ukrainian frontline there exhausted, they're out of manpower, they're very corrupt, their their morale is very low. But as long as they as long

as they get keep keep on getting support from NATO, this war can drag on for a long time. A really worrying development

long time. A really worrying development is that a couple of weeks ago there was a Ukrainian drone strike on an Iranian cargo ship transporting goods in

the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea is actually pretty far from Ukraine. So,

you're the Ukrainians made out of went out of their way to attack the ship. And

then Zelensky announced it. And I think that a lot of people are saying that his ambition is to draw the Americans into the war in Ukraine by uniting both

fronts, right? By showing that

fronts, right? By showing that Russia and Iran are allies. If you want to defeat Iran, you have to defeat Russia as well. The Americans aren't interested in merging both fronts. So,

Zelensky had to apologize to Iranians.

But we can we can imagine that these sort of stunts will continue because NATO is desperate to force the Americans to support this war in Ukraine.

And so I think that the strikes in the Caspian Sea, this this strike against Iranian interests will will continue.

So, I don't think this war will end. I think

it's much more likely that this war in Ukraine will merge with the war in Iran, and this contagion, this domino effect, will continue continue continue to to

spread. Another area of contention,

spread. Another area of contention, another flash point in the world, is the South China Sea.

So, Taiwan will always be a flash point between Japan and China. And I think that North Korea may enter the battlefield sooner or later.

Well, that's interesting because the North Koreans have already, in a big way, entered the the Ukrainian battlefield. But you do see that this uh

battlefield. But you do see that this uh three powers, Russia, China, and uh Iran, they represent, you know, the three main powers on the, you know, the

western part of the Eurasia, the eastern part, and the southern part. So, they these are the main three rivals of the United States. But

to what extent Well, we see the Russians and Iranians getting quite close. But

how how deeply involved do you think the Chinese might get in either the Iran war or the Ukraine war? Or how how deeply involved are they?

So, it is this classic Chinese geopolitical strategy to maintain neutrality, so as to maximize options. So, for the

longest time, China was trying to keep aloof from this war in Ukraine and from this war in the Middle East. So, China has always

kept its distance from this war in Ukraine, and China has been very compliant with American sanctions against Russia.

This war in Middle East directly affects Chinese interests, because China gets all of oil and energy from the Middle East. And so,

China was working very hard behind the scenes to seek a diplomatic solution. I

don't think the first ceasefire would have happened without Chinese intervention, and I think that China was very insistent on both parties, both the Iranians and Americans, respecting the

MOU.

Um one really interesting thing that the Chinese did was cut off um oil imports by at least 50%. And the

reason why the Chinese did that was to stabilize oil prices to give Trump the sort of political incentive to seek peace as soon as possible with uh the

Iranians. So, the Chinese have done a

Iranians. So, the Chinese have done a lot to try to um end the war in Iran as soon as possible, but the Americans, what they're doing is they're

aggravating China by imposing new tariffs, by sanctioning a lot of Chinese companies, and by um encouraging Japan to remilitarize. Uh

right now, there's a quad happening in East Asia, Japan, India, the Philippines, and Australia. You can

imagine that the United States is pulling a lot of strings um behind behind the scenes. So, even though China wants to get an accommodation with the United States, the United States seems

intent on strangling China, and there's many um in the United States who sees China as the real threat. So, um

uh when when an empire in decline it sleepwalks into disaster. So, there's

actually no reason for China to help Iran and Russia, but the United States is is giving China a lot of reasons to do so. So, we we can expect um a lot

do so. So, we we can expect um a lot more points of cooperation between Russia and Iran. Something really

interesting to look at is um the Arctic route, right? So,

route, right? So, um China has something called the uh the Strait of Malacca dilemma, which is say like most of Chinese trade trans passes through the Strait of Malacca, and the Strait of Malacca can be easily closed off.

Um so, right So, for the past few years, China has tried to create a um an Arctic Silk Road, and that is going very well, but it entails direct

cooperation with Russia.

Yeah, well, we always see that the Yeah, somehow China is the is included in all these conflicts. So,

for example, when the General Keith Kellogg, he was uh arguing for why it was such a good idea to fight this war against Russia, he was making the point that, you know, we use Ukrainians to

remove uh Russia, you know, from the chessboard of uh you know, the major rivals. And this will allow us to focus

rivals. And this will allow us to focus on China. And at the same time, you have

on China. And at the same time, you have all these uh US senators and different commentators who make the point that, well, at least uh as the war goes on in Iran, we're able to cut off the Chinese

of important resources. Scott Bennett

was making this point as well. So, it

does seem like China is the Well, again, the the the the the the ultimate target here. So,

well, I I did want to ask about the mood in China because if uh the the Chinese recognize that uh uh a key goal of uh

weakening Russia or uh cutting off key resources from Iran is to harm the Chinese, how do you How do you see that uh China is preparing for a possibility

of a conflict with the United States? Or

What What are the possible pathways here? Because we can already see a

here? Because we can already see a possible World War being unleashed through the Middle East. We can see it starting perhaps in Europe over this war with Russia, but you see a pathway in

Asia as well?

So, I I think that the major flash point in these Asia will be North Korea.

And so, my So, here's my logic.

Um right now, um China wants to um reunify with Taiwan. Mhm. And this is

the major political agenda for China.

And um but China doesn't want to retake power militarily. That would

power militarily. That would That would be a disaster and it would not end well.

China wants to create economic and political leverage um in order to reunify with Taiwan.

Uh the um opposition leader of Taiwan, uh a woman named Tsai Ing-wen, visited China a few months ago and she was welcomed by President Xi Jinping and she

is very much interested in reunification and she'll probably she'll probably win in the next uh general election in Taiwan. So China believes that uh over

Taiwan. So China believes that uh over time uh Taiwan and China would reunify peacefully. And that very much would be

peacefully. And that very much would be the uh major political triumph for the Communist Party. Um it would end China's

Communist Party. Um it would end China's sense of of humiliation when the Western powers came to divide China up and wanted to carve China up into different uh

pieces. The problem is that the Japanese

pieces. The problem is that the Japanese have stated that Taiwan is core to Japanese strategic interests. Meaning

that Japan relies on uh global trade and if China were to take over Taiwan, then China could use Taiwan to embargo Japan

and block uh Japan from Southeast Asia.

So Japan would not allow the unification of uh Taiwan and China and in fact these past few months the Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has launched a frenzy of remi-

remi- remilitarization. And she's been

remi- remilitarization. And she's been fostering close military cooperation with India, with the Philippines, and with Australia to counter what they

perceive as the um China threat. Now,

Chinese geopolitical strategy is to try to avoid kinetic warfare. China does not like to fight wars for a variety of

reasons. And so what happened was that

reasons. And so what happened was that uh in May, right after Trump and Putin visited China, uh President Xi Jinping made a personal

visit to North Korea.

And I think the logic of this is to use North Korea as a point of leverage against Japan.

Right? Because if North Korea's lobbing missiles into the Sea of Japan, this is enough to freak out the Japanese population. And already Japanese

population. And already Japanese population do not want to remilitarize. There's remilitarize.

remilitarize. There's remilitarize.

There's been lots of protest against um Japan's aggression.

And so, hopefully, the great hope is that by using North Korea as a point of leverage, Japan and China can come to a compromise uh vis-à-vis uh Taiwan.

Um but, unfortunately, I think that at the Americans are trying to co-opt the Japanese political system. So, Japan

recently announced they were forming a CIA, which is model which of course will model off the American CIA. We can also imagine like eventually Japan will form

an FBI and NSA. Basically,

create within Japan the infrastructure of American deep state so that America can impose its will uh through these intelligent agencies in Japan. So, America is trying to

Japan. So, America is trying to vassalize Japan and use Japan as a pawn in this great game uh against China. So, I think this is how the geopolitical situation will turn

out in uh in the in the East Asia. And

uh the Chinese uh understand this, and the Chinese are uh very patient, uh and they think long-term strategically.

And if China were to bring North Korea into the picture, there's very little Japan can do about North Korea.

Yeah, it's uh yeah, it's another country you want to go to war with, either. Uh

Well, well, well, well, well, with so it's a game. Um

Well, uh just as a last question because you've been quite successful in many of your predictions.

What is it that well, you keep your eye on at the moment or what is it that keep you up at night? Do

you see any worrying trends?

Yeah, I think that society is much more volatile than we we think.

So we're focusing on the geopolitical picture.

But, you know, these societies are powder kegs. So, if you go if you go to

powder kegs. So, if you go if you go to England, if you go to France, if you go to Germany, if you go to Spain, the population is really unhappy with

the way things are. I'm in Los Angeles and it's my first time in the United States in 2 years and the signs of imperial decline are everywhere.

And I can't believe Americans are happy with outrageous food prices. Also, by

the way, I'm not sure if if you had a chance to visit the United States recently, but the food is pure poison in the United States.

I've been here for 4 days and every single day I've had diarrhea. And I pay a lot of money for this food and I make sure to go to like good restaurants, but they put something in the food, whether

it's GMOs or some sort of growth hormones or or whatever, but it's causing my stomach to rebel against me and my system is having problems dealing with American

food. And all the Europeans say this,

food. And all the Europeans say this, the Europeans come to the United States and they can't believe the poison that the Americans are are

eating. So, I don't understand why the

eating. So, I don't understand why the American people are putting up with this crap. And I think that eventually

crap. And I think that eventually there'll be a trigger and you're going to have a lot of violence in the United States. So, I think that is something

States. So, I think that is something that people are not aware of. We tend to focus on these flash points and we don't recognize that within all these societies, Um, people the population is

extremely restive, extremely frustrated with the political leadership. And, um,

at any point, uh, things can blow up.

Do you see something similar in Europe, though because uh well again uh I guess Britain doesn't look very stable uh in France, every now and then you have some generals or,

uh, who's who's predicting civil war, and of course in in Germany, there's also, I guess the political culture is looking a bit dark. That is, once you begin to

refer to your, you know, political opposition as, um, as enemies or traitors, you know, you can't really have peaceful change in power anymore. And, uh, you know, the

power anymore. And, uh, you know, the Germans just, uh, well, Merz, uh, the chancellor recently made this the secret deals where he was looking at how to

just as such a strip, uh, some of the states in the Republic of its autonomy if they vote the wrong way, because they saw them as being, you know, too friendly to Russia, which

by means, you know, they're not gung-ho on war, apparently. So, how how do you see the political stability in in Europe? And, of course, you have this

Europe? And, of course, you have this separate layer where they have the EU, which is trying to, you know, make sure people don't vote the wrong way, and keep everything in place. However, the

the more it holds everything in place, the more, you know, tensions are building up. So, it just looks as if,

building up. So, it just looks as if, um, it is this can't really last forever.

Yeah, so, a good historical analogy is the 1848 revolutions in Europe. And you

you go to your 18, um, 40, um, it's it's very similar to what Europe is like today. You have economic malaise, uh,

today. You have economic malaise, uh, you have a lot of inequality, you have a lot of corruption, you have an aloof, um, elite, uh, but there's peace in

Europe. And, um, it seems as though the

Europe. And, um, it seems as though the population, they're not happy, but they won't rebel. But, a few years later,

won't rebel. But, a few years later, because of climate change, uh, uh because of weather patterns, there's a famine throughout Europe. And then what happens is it I can't remember the exact

starting point, but one nation there but in one nation there there's um popular unrest and like the very next day the entire all of the Europe is engulfed in flames.

So, I think that this war in Iran will create famines throughout the world, especially in Africa. Um going to cause food prices to skyrocket in the United

States. And I'm not sure um what the

States. And I'm not sure um what the pain tolerance is is um among the American population. So, these

things are impossible to predict when they'll happen. Um but I think the

they'll happen. Um but I think the ingredients are in place and all you need is a spark. And that spark could possibly be um massive inflation caused by this war

in Iran.

Yeah, that's the issue we didn't cover.

That is the pending economic crisis. I mean,

this is another thing that seemingly can't go on forever.

Um but yeah, we're going to have to leave that for next time. Um unless you have a a quick answer for it.

Where where are we headed?

Well, I think we're we're heading towards total financial collapse.

Um I think that the economy United States, it's it's just a Ponzi scheme.

Uh you've got both the pri- private credit bubble, which is worth about $22 and you've got the AI bubble, which is also $200.

And these are not sustainable um bubbles and I think that once these bubbles pop, then the full brunt of economic pain

uh will manifest itself.

Well, on that happy note, uh thank you very much for taking the time. I always

appreciate speaking with you.

Okay, thanks a lot.

Mhm.