Jim Keller: Moore's Law, Microprocessors, and First Principles | Lex Fridman Podcast #70

the following is a conversation with Jim Keller legendary microprocessor engineer who has worked at AMD Apple Tesla and

now Intel he's known for his work on AMD K 7 K 8 K 12 and Xen microarchitectures Apple a4 and a5 processors and co-author

of the specification for the x86 64 instruction set and hyper transport interconnect he's a brilliant first principles engineer and out-of-the-box

thinker and just an interesting and fun human being to talk to this is the artificial intelligence podcast if you enjoy it subscribe on YouTube give it

five stars an apple podcast follow on Spotify supported on patreon or simply connect with me on Twitter Alex Friedman spelled Fri D ma a.m. I recently started

doing ads at the end of the introduction I'll do one or two minutes after introducing the episode and never any ads in the middle that can break the flow of the conversation I hope that

works for you and doesn't hurt the listening experience this show is presented by cash app the number one finance I up in the App Store I personally use cash app to send money

to friends but you can also use it to buy sell and deposit Bitcoin in just seconds cash app also has a new investing feature you can buy fractions of a stock say $1 worth no matter what

the stock price is brokers services are provided by cash app investing a subsidiary of square and member si PC I'm excited to be working with cash app to support one of my favorite

organizations called first best known for their first robotics and Lego competitions they educate and inspire hundreds of thousands of students in over 110 countries and have a perfect

rating a charity navigator which means that donated money is used to maximum effectiveness when you get cash app from the App Store Google Play and use code

Lex podcast you'll get ten dollars and cash app will also donate ten dollars to the first which again is an organization that I've personally seen inspire girls

and boys the dream of engineering a better world and now here's my with Jim Keller what are the differences in similarities between the human brain

and a computer with the microprocessors core let's start with a philosophical question perhaps well since people don't actually understand how human brains

work I think that's true I think that's true so it's hard to compare them computers are you know there's really

two things there's memory and there's computation right and to date almost all computer architectures are global memory which is a thing right and then

computation where you pull data and you do relatively simple operations on it and write data back so it's decoupled in modern in modern computers and you think

in the human brain everything's a mesh a mess that's combined together what people observe is there's you know some number of layers of neurons which have local and global connections and

information is stored in some distributed fashion and people build things called neural networks in computers where the information is

distributed in some kind of fashion you know there's a mathematics behind it I don't know that the understandings that is super deep the computations we run on

those are straightforward computations I don't believe anybody has said a neuron does this computation so to date it's

hard to compare them I would say so let's get into the basics before we zoom back out how do you build a computer from scratch what is a microprocessor

what is it microarchitecture what's an instruction set architecture maybe even as far back as what is a transistor so

the special charm of computer engineering is there's a relatively good understanding of abstraction layers so down to bottom you have atoms and atoms

get put together in materials like silicon or dope silicon or metal and we build transistors on top of that we build logic gates

right and in functional units like an adder or subtractor or an instruction parsing unit and we assemble those into you know processing elements modern

computers are built out of you know probably 10 to 20 locally you know organic processing elements or coherent processing elements and then that runs

computer programs right so there's abstraction layers and then software you know there's an instruction set you run and then there's assembly language C C++

Java JavaScript you know there's abstraction layers you know essentially from the atom to the data center right so when you when you build a computer

you know first there's a target like what's it for look how fast does it have to be which you know today there's a whole bunch of metrics about what that is and then in an organization of you

know a thousand people who build a computer there's lots of different disciplines that you have to operate on

does that make sense and so so there's a bunch of levels abstraction of in in organizational I can tell and in your own vision there's a lot of brilliance

that comes in it every one of those layers some of it is science some was engineering some of his art what's the most if you could pick favorites what's the

most important your favorite layer on these layers of abstractions where does the magic enter this hierarchy I don't

really care that's the fun you know I'm somewhat agnostic to that so I would say for relatively long periods of time

instruction sets are stable so the x86 instruction said the arm instruction set what's an instruction set so it says how do you encode the basic operations load

store multiply add subtract conditional branch you know there aren't that many interesting instructions look if you look at a program and it runs you know

90% of the execution is on 25 opcodes you know 25 instructions on those are stable right what does it mean stable until architecture has been around for

twenty-five years it works it works and that's because the basics you know or defined a long time ago right now the way an old computer ran is you fetched

instructions and you executed them in order to the load do the ad do the compare the way a modern computer works

is you fetch large numbers of instructions say 500 and then you find the dependency graph between the

instructions and then you you execute in independent units those little micro graphs so a modern computer like people like to say computers should be simple

and clean but it turns out the market for a simple complete clean slow computers is zero right we don't sell any simple clean computers now you can

there's how you build it can be clean but the computer people want to buy that's say you know phone or data center

such as a large number of instructions computes the dependency graph and then executes it in a way that gets the right answers and optimizes that graph somehow

yeah they run deeply out of order and then there's semantics around how memory ordering works and other things work so the the computer sort of has a bunch of

bookkeeping tables it says what order CDs operations finishing or appear to finish him but to go fast you have to fetch a lot of instructions and find all

the parallelism now there's a second kind of computer which we call GPUs today and I called the difference there's found parallelism like you have a program with a lot of dependent

instructions you fetch a bunch and then you go figure out the dependency graph and you issues instructions out order that's because you have one serial narrative to execute which in fact is

and can be done out of order you call a narrative yeah well so yeah so humans think of serial narrative so read read a book right there's a you know there's the sends after sentence after sentence

and there's paragraphs now you could diagram that imagine you diagrammed it properly and you said which sentences could be read

in anti order any order without changing the meaning right but that's a fascinating question to ask of a book yeah yeah you could do that right so

some paragraphs could be reordered some sentences can be reordered you could say he is tall and smart and X right and it

doesn't matter the order of tall and smart but if you say is that tall man who's wearing a red shirt what colors you know like you can create

dependencies right right and so GPUs on the other hand run simple programs on pixels but you're given a million of them and the first order the screen

you're looking at it doesn't care which order you do it in so I call that given parallelism simple narratives around the large numbers of things where you can

just say it's parallel because you told me it was so found parallelism where the narrative is it's sequential but you discover like little pockets of

parallelism of versus turns out large pockets of parallelism large so how hard is it to discuss well how hard is it that's just transistor count right so once you crack the problem you say

here's how you fetch ten instructions at a time here's how you calculated the dependencies between them here's how you describe the dependencies here's you

know these are pieces right so once you describe the dependencies then it's just a graph sort of it's an algorithm that

finds what is that I'm sure there's a graph there is the theoretical answer here that's solved well in general programs modern programs like human

beings right how much found parallelism is there and on that I max what is 10 next mean oh well you execute it in order vs. yeah

you would get what's called cycles per instruction and it would be about you know three instructions three cycles per instruction because of the latency of the operations and stuff

and in a modern computer excuse it but like point to 0.25 cycles per instruction so it's about with today fine 10x and there and there's two

things one is the found parallelism in the narrative right and the other is to predictability of the narrative right so certain operations they do a bunch of

calculations and if greater than one do this else do that that that decision is predicted in modern computers to high

90% accuracy so branches happen a lot so imagine you have you have a decision to make every six instructions which is about the average right but you want to fetch five under instructions figure out

the graph and execute them all in parallel that means you have let's say if you effect 600 instructions it's every six you have to fetch you have to

predict ninety-nine out of a hundred branches correctly for that window to be effective okay so parallelism you can't paralyze branches or you can looking

pretty you can what is predict a branch mean or what open take so imagine you do a computation over and over you're in a loop so Wow and it's greater than one do and you go

through that loop a million times so every time you look at the branch you say it's probably still greater than one he's saying you could do that accurately very accurately monitoring comes my mind is blown how the heck did you that wait

a minute well you want to know this is really sad 20 years ago yes you simply recorded which way the branch went last time and predicted the

same thing right okay what's the accuracy of that 85% so then somebody said hey let's keep a couple of bits and

have a little counter so and it predicts one way we count up and then pins so say you have a three bit counter so you count up and then count down and if it's you know you can use the top bit as the

sign bit so you have a sign to bit number so if it's greater than one you predict taken and lesson one you predict not-taken right or less than zero or whatever the

thing is and that got us to 92% oh okay I know is this better this branch depends on how you got there

so if you came down the code one way you're talking about Bob and Jane right and then said is just Bob like Jane Enoch went one way but if you're talking about Bob and Jill this Bob like changes

you go a different way right so that's called history so you take the history and a counter that's cool but that's not how anything works

today they use something that looks a little like a neural network so modern you take all the execution flows and

then you do basically deep pattern recognition of how the program is executing and you do that multiple

different ways and you have something that chooses what the best result is there's a little supercomputer inside the computer that's trying to project

that calculates which way branches go so the effective window that it's worth finding grassing gets bigger why was that gonna make me sad that's amazing

it's amazingly complicated oh well here's the funny thing so to get to 85%

took a thousand bits to get to 99% takes tens of megabits so this is one of those to get the

result you want you know to get from a window of say 50 instructions to 500 it took three orders of magnitudes or four orders of magnitude toward bits now if

you get the prediction of a branch wrong what happens then what is the pipe you flush the pipes is just the performance cost but it gets even better yeah so we're starting to look at stuff that

says so executed down this path and then you had two ways to go but far far away there's something that doesn't matter

which path you went so you miss you took the wrong path you executed a bunch of stuff then you had to miss predicting too backed it up but you remembered all

the results you already calculated some of those are just fine look if you read a book and you misunderstand the paragraph your understanding is the next paragraph sometimes is invariance I don't

understand you sometimes it depends on it and you can kind of anticipate that invariance yeah well you can keep track

of whether that data changed and so when you come back to a piece of code should you calculate it again or do the same thing okay how much does this is art and how much of it is science because it

sounds pretty complicated so well how do you describe a situation so imagine you come to a point in the road we have to make a decision right and you have a bunch of knowledge about which way to go

maybe you have a map so you want to go is the shortest way or do you want to go the fastest way or you want to take the nicest Road so it's just some set of data so imagine you're doing something

complicated like a building a computer and there's hundreds of decision points all with hundreds of possible ways to go and the ways you pick interacts in a

complicated way right and then you have to pick the right spot right so those are there so I don't know yeah avoided the question you just described do the

Robert Frost poem road less taken I describe the Robin truss problem which we do as computer designers it's all poetry ok great

yeah I don't know how to describe that because some people are very good at making those intuitive leaps it seems like the combinations of things some people are less good at it but they're

really good at evaluating your alternatives right and everybody has a different way to do it and some people can't make those sleeps but they're

really good at analyzing it so when you see computers are designed by teams of people who have very different skill sets and a good team has lots of

different kinds of people and I suspect you would describe some of them as artistic right but not very many unfortunately or fortunately fortunately

well you know computer science hard it's 99% perspiration and the 1% inspiration is really

important but I need the 99 yeah you got to do a lot of work and then there's there are interesting things to do at every level that stack so at the end of

the day if you're on the same program multiple times does it always produce the same result is is there some room for fuzziness there that's a math

problem so if you run a correct C program the definition is every time you run it you get the same answer yeah that well that's a math statement but that's a that's a language definitional

statement so yes for years when people did when we first did 3d acceleration of graphics you could run the same scene multiple times and get different answers

right right and then some people thought that was okay and some people thought it was a bad idea and then when the HPC world used GPUs for calculations they

thought it's a really bad idea okay now in modern AI stuff people are looking at networks where the precision of the data

is low enough that the date has somewhat noisy and the observation as the input data is unbelievably noisy so why should the calculation be not noisy and people

have experimented with algorithms that say can get faster answers by being noisy like as the network starts to converge if you look at the computation graph it starts out really wide and it

gets narrower and you can say is that last little bit that important or should I start to graph on the next rap rev before we would live all the way down to the answer right so you can create

algorithms that are noisy now if you're developing something and every time you run it you get a different answer it's really annoying and so most people think

even today every time you run the program you get the same answer now I know but the question is that's the formal definition of a programming language there is a definition of

languages that don't get the same answer but people who use those you always want something because you get a bad answer and then you're wondering is it because right something in your brother because of

this and so everybody wants a little swish that says no matter what ya do it deterministically and it's really weird because almost everything going into monetary calculations is noisy

so why the answers have to be so clear it's right so where do you stand by design computers for people who run programs so somebody says I want in

deterministic answer like most people want that can you deliver a deterministic answer I guess is the question like when you hopefully sure that's what people don't realize is you

get a deterministic answer even though the execution flow is very own deterministic so if you run this program a hundred times it never runs the same way twice ever and the answer it arises

the same in but it gets the same answer every time it's just just them is just amazing okay you've achieved in eyes of

many people legend status as a cheap art architect what design creation are you most proud of perhaps because it was challenging

because of its impact or because of the set of brilliant ideas that that were involved in well I find that description

odd and I has two small children and I promise you they think it's hilarious this question yeah so I dude so I I'm

I'm really interested in building computers and I've worked with really really smart people I'm not unbelievably smart I'm

fascinated by how they go together both as a as a thing to do and is endeavor that people do how people in computers go together yeah like how people think

and build a computer and I find sometimes that the best computer architects aren't that interested in people or the best people managers aren't that good at designing computers

so the whole stack of human beings is fascinating so the managers individual engineers yeah I just I said I realized after a lot of years of building computers where you sort of build them out of the transistors logic gates

functional units come computational elements that you could think of people the same way so people are functional units yes and then you can think of organizational design it's a computer architectural problem and

then it's like oh that's super cool because the people are all different just like the computation elephants are all different and they like to do different things and and so I had a lot

of fun like reframing how I think about organizations just like with with computers we were saying execution paths you can have a lot of different paths

that end up at a at at the same good destination so what have you learned about the human abstractions from

individual functional human units to the broader organization what does it take to create something special well most

people don't think simple enough all right so do you know the difference between a recipe and understanding there's probably a philosophical

description of this so imagine you can make a loaf of bread yeah the recipe says get some flour add some water add some yeast mix it up let it rise put it

in a pan put it in the oven it's a recipe right understanding bread you can understand biology supply chains

you know grain grinders yeast physics you know thermodynamics like there's so many levels of understanding there and

then when people build and design things they frequently are executing some stack of recipes right and the problem with that is the recipes all have a limited

scope look if you have a really good recipe book for making bread it won't tell you anything about how to make an omelet right right but if you have a

deep understanding of cooking right then bread omelets you know sandwich you know there's there's a different you know way

of viewing everything and most people when you get to be an expert at something you know you're you're hoping to achieve deeper understanding not just

a large set of recipes to go execute and it's interesting the walk groups of people because xqt reps apiece is unbelievably efficient if it's what you

want to do if it's not what you want to do you're really stuck and and that difference is crucial and ever and everybody has a balance of let's say

deeper understanding recipes and some people are really good at recognizing when the problem is to understand something DP deeply that make sense it totally makes sense does it every

stage of development deep on understanding on the team needed oh this goes back to the art versus science question sure if you constantly unpacked everything for deeper understanding you

never get anything done right and if you don't unpack understanding when you need to you'll do the wrong thing and then at every juncture like human beings are these really weird things because

everything you tell them has a million possible outputs all right and then they all interact in a hilarious way and then having some intuition about what you tell them what you do when do you

intervene when do you not it's it's complicated all right so it's you know essentially computationally unsolvable yeah it's an intractable problem sure

humans are a mess but with deep understanding do you mean also sort of

fundamental questions of things like what is a computer or why like think the

why question is why are we even building this like of purpose or do you mean more like going towards the fundamental limits of physics sort of really getting

into the core of the sighs well in terms of building the computer thinks simple think a little simpler so common practice is you build a computer and then when somebody says I want to make

it 10% faster you'll go in and say alright I need to make this buffer bigger and maybe I'll add an ad unit or you know I have this thing that's three instructions wide I'm going to make it

four instructions wide and what you see is each piece gets incrementally more complicated right and then at some point you hit this limit like adding another feature or a

buffer doesn't seem to make it any faster and then people say well that's because it's a fundamental limit and then somebody else to look at it and say well actually the way you divided the

problem up and the way that different features are interacting is limiting you and it has to be rethought rewritten right so then you refactor it and rewrite it and what people commonly find

is the rewrite is not only faster but half is complicated from scratch yes so how often in your career but just have you seen as needed maybe more generally

to just throw the whole out thing out this is where I'm on one end of it every three to five years which end are you on

like rewrite more often right and three or five years is if you want to really make a lot of progress on computer architecture every five years you should

do one from scratch so where does the x86 64 standard come in or what how often do you I wrote the I was the

co-author that's back in 98 that's 20 years ago yeah so that's still around the instruction set it stuff has been extended quite a few times yes and

instruction sets are less interesting and implementation underneath there's been on x86 architecture Intel's designed a few Eames is designed a few

very different architectures and I don't want to go into too much of the detail about how often but it's there's a tendency to rewrite it every you know 10

years and it really should be every five so you're saying you're an outlier in that sense in really more often we write more often well in here isn't that scary yeah of course

well scary - who - everybody involved because like you said repeating the recipe is efficient companies want to make money well no in the individual

juniors want to succeed so you want to incrementally improve increase the buffer from three to four well we get into the diminishing return curves I think Steve Jobs said this right so

every you have a project and you start here and it goes up and they have Domitian return and to get to the next level you have to do a new one in the initial

starting point will be lower than the old optimization point but it'll get higher so now you have two kinds of fear short-term disaster and long-term

disaster and you're you're wrong right like you know people with a quarter by quarter business objective are terrified about changing everything yeah and

people who are trying to run a business or build a computer for a long term objective know that the short-term limitations block them from the long

term success so if you look at leaders of companies that had really good long-term success every time they saw that they had to redo something they did

and so somebody has to speak up or you do multiple projects in parallel like you optimize the old one while you build a new one and but the marketing guys they're always like make promise me that

the new computer is faster on every single thing and the computer architect says well the new computer will be faster on the average but there's a distribution or results in performance and you'll have some outliers that are

slower and that's very hard because they have one customer cares about that one so speaking of the long-term for over 50 years now Moore's law has served a for me and

millions of others as an inspiring beacon what kind of amazing future brilliant engineers can build no I'm just making your kids laugh all of today

it was great so first in your eyes what is Moore's law if you could define for people who don't know well the simple statement was from Gordon Moore was

double the number of transistors every two years something like that and then my operational model is we increased the

performance of computers by 2x every 2 or 3 years and it's wiggled around substantially over time and also in how we deliver performance has changed

but the foundational idea was to X two transistors every two years the current cadence is something like they call it a

shrink factor like point six every two years which is not 0.5 but that that's referring strictly again to the original definition of transistor count a shrink factors just getting them smaller small

as well as you use for a constant chip area if you make the transistor smaller by 0.6 then you get 1 over 0.6 more transistors so can you linger a little longer what's what's a broader what do

you think should be the broader definition of Moore's law we mentioned before how you think of performance just broadly what's a good way to think about

Moore's law well first of all so I I've been aware of Moore's law for 30 years in what sense well I've been designing

computers for 40 just watching it before your eyes kind of slow and somewhere where I became aware of it I was also informed that Moore's law was gonna die in 10 to 15 years and I thought that was

true at first but then after 10 years it was gonna die in 10 to 15 years and then at one point it was gonna die in 5 years and then it went back up to ten years and at some point I decided not to worry

about that particular product mastication for the rest of my life which is which is fun and then I joined Intel and everybody said Moore's law is dead and I thought that's sad because

it's the Moore's law company and it's not dead and it's always been gonna die and you know humans you like these apocryphal kind of statements like we'll

run out of food or run out of air or you know something right but it's still incredible this lived for as long as it has and yes

there's many people who believe now that Moore's Law instead you know they can join the last 50 years of people had the thing yeah there's a long tradition but

why do you think if you can in touch try to understand it why do you think it's not dead well for Hartley let's just think people think Moore's law is one

thing transistors get smaller but actually under the sheets ours literally thousands of innovations and almost all those innovations have their own diminishing return curves so if you

graph it it looks like a cascade of diminishing return curves I don't know what to call that but the result is an exponential curve at least it has been

so and we keep inventing new things so if you're an expert in one of the things on a diminishing return curve right and you can see it's plateau you will

probably tell people well this is this is done meanwhile some other pile of people are doing something different so that's that's just normal so then

there's the observation of how small could a switching device be so a modern transistor is something like a thousand by a thousand by thousand atoms right

and you get quantum effects down around two to two to ten atoms so you can imagine the transistor as small as 10 by 10 by 10 so that's a million times

smaller and then the quantum computational people are working away at how to use quantum effects so a thousand

by thousand five thousand atoms it's a really clean way of putting it well fin like a modern transistor if you look at the fan it's like a hundred and twenty atoms wide but we can make that thinner

and then there's there's a gate wrapped around it and under spacing there's a whole bunch of geometry and you know a competent transistor designer could

count both atoms in every single direction like there's techniques now to already put down atoms in a single

atomic layer and you can place atoms if you want to it's just you know from a manufacturing process if placing an atom takes ten minutes and you need to put

you know 10 to the 23rd atoms together to make a computer it would take a long time so the the methods are you know both shrinking things and then coming up

with effective ways to control what's happening manufacture stabling cheaply yeah so the innovation stocks pretty broad you know there there's equipment there's optics there's

chemistry there's physics there's material science there's metallurgy there's lots of ideas about when you put their four materials together how they interact are they stable is I stable or

temperature you know like are they repeatable you know there's look there's like literally thousands of technologies involved but just for the shrinking you

don't think we're quite yet close to the fundamental limit in physics I did a talk on Moore's Law and I asked for a road map to a path of 100 and after two weeks they said we only got to fifty a

hundred what's a 100 extra hundred shrink we only got 15 I said once you go to another two weeks well here's the

thing about Moore's law right so I believe that the next 10 or 20 years of shrinking is going to happen right now as a computer designer there's you have

two stances you think it's going to shrink in which case you're designing and thinking about architecture in a way that you'll use more transistors or

conversely not be swamped by the complexity of all the transistors you get right you have to have a strategy you know so you're open to the

possibility and waiting for the possibility of a whole new army of transistors ready to work I'm expecting expecting more transistors every two or three years by a number large enough

that how you think about design how you think about architecture has to change like imagine you're you build built brick buildings out of bricks and every

year the bricks are half the size or every two years well if you kept building bricks the same way you know so many bricks per person per day the

amount of time to build a building would go up exponentially right right but if you said I know that's coming so now I'm going to design equipment and moves bricks faster uses them better because

maybe you're getting something out of the smaller bricks more strengths inner walls you know less material efficiency out of that so once you have a roadmap with what's going to happen transistors

they're gonna get we're gonna get more of them then you design was collateral rounded to take advantage of it and also to cope with it like that's the thing people to understand it's like if I didn't believe in Moore's

law and Moore's law transistors showed up my design teams were all drowned so what's the what's the hardest part of this in flood of new transistors I mean

even if you just look historically throughout your career what's what's the thing you what fundamentally changes when you add more transistors in in the

task of designing an architecture no there's there's two constants right one is people don't get smarter I think by the way there's some size shown that we do get smarter because nutrition

whatever sorry bring that what effect yes nobody understands it nobody knows if it's still going on so that's all or whether it's real or not but yeah that's a I

sort of Amen but not if I believe for the most part people aren't getting much smarter the evidence doesn't support it that's right and then teams can't grow that much right all right so human

beings understand you know we're really good in teams of ten you know up two teams of a hundred they can know each other beyond that you have to have organizational boundaries so you're kind of you have those are pretty hard

constraints all right so then you have to divide and conquer like as the designs get bigger you have to divide it into pieces you know that the power of abstraction layers is really high we used to build computers out of

transistors now we have a team that turns transistors and logic cells and our team that turns them into functional you know it's another one it turns in computers right so we have abstraction

layers in there and you have to think about when do you shift gears on that we also use faster computers to build faster computers so some algorithms run

twice as fast on new computers but a lot about rhythms are N squared so you know a computer with twice as many transistors and it might take four Tom's times as long to run so you have to

refactor at the software like simply using faster computers to build bigger computers doesn't work so so you have to think about all these things so in terms of computing performance and the

exciting possibility that more powerful computers bring is shrinking the thing we've been talking about one of the for you one of the biggest exciting possibilities of

advancement in performance or is there are other directions that you're interested in like like in the direction of sort of enforcing given parallelism

or like doing massive parallelism in terms of many many CPUs you know stacking CPUs on top of each other that kind of that kind of parallelism or you

kind of well think about it a different way so old computers you know slow computers you said a equal B plus C times D pretty simple right and then we

made faster computers with vector units and you can do proper equations and matrices right and then modern like AI computations or like convolutional

neural networks we you convolve one large data set against another and so there's sort of this hierarchy of mathematics you know from simple equation to linear

equations to matrix equations to it's a deeper kind of computation and the data sets are getting so big that people are thinking of data as a topology problem

you know data is organized in some immense shape and then the computation which sort of wants to be get data from immense shape and do some computation on

it so the with computers of a lot of people to do is how about rhythms go much much further so that that paper you you reference the Sutton paper they

talked about you know like in a I started it was a ploy rule sets to something that's a very simple computational situation and then when

they did first chess thing they solved deep searches so have a huge database of moves and results deep search but it's

still just a search right now we we take large numbers of images and we use it to Train these weight sets that we convolve across it's a completely different kind

of phenomena we call that AI now they're doing the next generation and if you look at it they're going up this mathema graph right and then computations the

both computation and data sets support going up that graph yeah the kind of computation of my I mean I would argue that all of it is still a search right

just like you said a topology problems data says he's searching the data sets for valuable data and also the actual optimization of your networks is a kind

of search for the I don't know if you looked at the inner layers of finding a cat it's not a search it's it's a set of endless projection so you know

projection and here's a shadow of this phone yeah right then you can have a shadow of that onto something a shadow on that or something if you look in the layers you'll see this layer actually

describes pointy ears and round eyeness and fuzziness and but the computation to tease out the attributes is not search

right ain't like the inference part might be searched but the trainings not search okay well 10 then in deep networks they look at layers and they don't even know it's represented and yet

if you take the layers out it doesn't work ok so if I don't think it's search all right well but you have to talk to my mathematician about what that actually is oh you disagree but the the

it's just semantics I think it's not but it's certainly not I would say it's absolutely not semantics but okay all right well if you want to go there so

optimization to me is search and we're trying to optimize the ability of a neural network to detect cat ears and

this difference between chess and the space the incredibly multi-dimensional hundred thousand dimensional space that you know networks are trying to optimize

over is nothing like the chessboard database so it's a totally different kind of thing and okay in that sense you can say yeah yeah you know I could see

how you you might say if if you the funny thing is it's the difference between given search space and found search space exactly yeah maybe that's a different way beautiful but okay but you're saying

what's your sense in terms of the basic mathematical operations and the architectures can be hardwired that enables those operations do you see the

CPUs of today still being a really core part of executing those mathematical operations yes well the operations you know continue to

be add subtract loads or compare and branch it's it's remarkable so it's it's interesting that the building blocks of you know computers or transistors and you know under that atoms so you got

atoms transistors logic gates computers right you know functional units and computers the building blocks of mathematics at some level are things like adds and subtracts and multiplies

but that's the space mathematics can describe is I think essentially infinite but the computers that run the algorithms are still doing the same

things now a given algorithm may say I need sparse data or I need 32-bit data or I need you know like a convolution

operation that naturally takes 8-bit data multiplies it and sums it up a certain way so the like the data types in tensorflow imply an optimization set

but when you go write down a look at the computers it's an inorganic salt applies like like that hasn't changed much now the quantum researchers think

they're going to change that radically and then there's people who think about analog computing because you look in the brain and it seems to be more analog ish you know that maybe there's a way to do

that more efficiently but we have a million acts on computation and I don't know the reference the relationship

between computational let's say intensity and ability to hit match mathematical abstractions I don't know anyway subscribe dad but but just like

you saw an AI you went from rule sets the simple search to complex search does a found search like those are you know orders of magnitude more computation to do

and as we get the next two orders of magnitude your friend Roger godori said like every order magnitude changed the computation fundamentally changes what

the computation is doing here oh you know the expression the difference in quantity is the difference in kind you know the difference between ant and ant

hill right or neuron and brain you know there's there's there's just indefinable place where the the quantity changed the quality right now we've seen that happen

in mathematics multiple times and you know my my guess is it's gonna keep happening so your senses yeah if you focus head down and shrinking a

transistor let's not just head down and we're aware about the software stacks that are running in the computational loads and we're kind of pondering what do you do with a petabyte of memory that

wants to be accessed in a sparse way and have you know the kind of calculations ai programmers want so there's that there's a dialog interaction but when

you go in the computer chip you know you find adders and subtractors and multipliers and so if you zoom out then with as you mentioned which Sutton the

idea that most of the development in the last many decades in the AI research came from just leveraging computation and just the simple algorithms waiting

for the computation to improve well suffer guys have a thing that they called the the problem of early optimization right so if you write a big software stack and if you start

optimizing like the first thing you write the odds of that being the performance limiter is low but when you get the whole thing working can you make it to X faster by optimizing the right

things sure while you're optimizing that could you've written a new software stack which would have been a better choice maybe now you have creative tension so but the whole time as you're

doing the writing the that's the software we're talking about the hardware underneath gets faster which goes back to the Moore's laws Moore's Law is going to continue then your AI

research should expect that to show up and then you make a slightly different set of choices then we've hit the wall nothing's gonna happen and from here

it's just us rewriting algorithms like that seems like a failed strategy for the last 30 years of Moore's laws death so so can you just linger on it I think

you've answered it but it just asked the same dumb question over and over so what why do you think Moore's law is not going to die which is the most promising

exciting possibility of why it won't done that's five 10 years so is it that continues shrinking the transistor or is it another s-curve that steps in and it

totally so dope shrinking the transistor is literally thousands of innovations right so there's so this they're all answers and it's there's a whole bunch

of s-curves just kind of running their course and being reinvented and new things you know the the semiconductor fabricators and technologists have all

announced what's called nano wires so they they took a fan which had a gate around it and turned that into a little wire so you have better control that and they're smaller and then from there

there's some obvious steps about how to shrink that so the metallurgy around wire stocks and stuff has very obvious

abilities to shrink and you know there's a whole combination of things there to do your sense is that we're gonna get a lot yes this innovation from just that

shrinking yeah like a factor of a hundred salade yeah I would say that's incredible and it's totally it's only 10 or 15 years now you're smarter you might know but to me it's totally

unpredictable of what that hundred x would bring in terms of the nature of the computation and people be yeah you familiar with Bell's law so for a long

time those mainframes Mini's workstation PC mobile Moore's Law drove faster smaller computers right and

then we were thinking about Moore's law rajae godori said every 10x generates a new computation so scalar vector made

Erichs topological computation right and if you go look at the industry trans there was no mainframes and mini-computers and PCs and then the

internet took off and then we got mobile devices and now we're building 5g wireless with one millisecond latency and people are starting to think about

the smart world where everything knows you recognizes you like like like the transformations are going to be like

unpredictable how does it make you feel that you're one of the key architects of this kind of futures you're not we're

not talking about the architects of the high-level people who build the Angry Bird apps and flapping Angry Bird of who knows we're gonna be that's the whole point of the universe

let's take a stand at that and the attention distracting nature of mobile phones I'll take a stand but anyway in

terms of that matters much the the side effects of smartphones or the attention distraction which part well who knows you know where this is all leading it's

changing so fast wax my parents do steal my sister's for hiding in the closet with a wired phone with a dial on it stop talking your friends all day right now my wife feels with my kids for

talking to their friends all day on text looks the same to me it's always it's echoes of the same thing okay but you are the one of the key people architecting the hardware of this future

how does that make you feel do you feel responsible do you feel excited so we're we're in a social context so there's

billions of people on this planet there are literally millions of people working on technology I feel lucky to be you know what doing what I do and getting

paid for it and there's an interest in it but there's so many things going on in parallel it's like the actions are so unpredictable if I wasn't here somebody

else are doing the the vectors of all these different things are happening all the time you know there's a I'm sure some philosopher or meta

philosophers you know wondering about how we transform our world so you can't deny the fact that these tools whether

that these tools are changing our world that's right do you think it's changing for the better so some of these I read this thing recently it said the peat the

two disciplines with the highest GRE scores in college are physics in philosophy right and they're both sort of trying to answer the question why is there anything right and the

Philosopher's you know are on the kind of theological side and the physicists are obviously on the you know the material side and there's a hundred

billion galaxies with a hundred billion stars it seems well repetitive at best so I you know there's on our way to ten

billion people I mean it's hard to say what it's all for is that's what you're asking yeah I guess I guess I do tend to are significantly increases in complexity

and I'm curious about how computation like like our world our physical world inherently generates mathematics it's kind of obvious right so we have X Y Z

coordinates you take a sphere you make it bigger you get a surface that falls you know grows by r-squared like it generally generates mathematics and the mathematicians and the physicists have

been having a lot of fun talking to each other for years and computation has been let's say relatively pedestrian like computation in terms of mathematics has

been doing binary binary algebra while those guys have been gallivanting through the other realms of possibility

right now recently the computation lets you do math m'q mathematical computations that are sophisticated enough that nobody understands how the

answers came out right machine learning machine lying yeah it used to be you get data set you guess at a function the function is considered physics if it's

predictive of new functions data sets modern you can take a large data set with no intuition about what it

is and use machine learning to find a pattern that has no function right and it can arrive at results that I don't know if they're completely mathematically describable so a

computation is kind of done something interesting compared to a POV plus see there's something reminiscent of that

step from the basic operations of addition to taking a step towards new all networks that's reminiscent of what life on Earth and its origins was doing

do you think we're creating sort of the next step in our evolution in creating artificial intelligence systems that I don't know I mean you know if there's so much in the universe already it's hard

to say well I'm standing in his hold are human beings working on additional abstraction layers and possibilities yet appear so does that mean that human

beings don't need dogs you know no like like there's so many things that are all simultaneously interesting and useful but you've seen through I agree you've

seen great and greater level abstractions and built in artificial machines right do you think when you look at humans you think that the look

of all life on earth as a single organism building this thing this machine that greater and greater levels of abstraction do you think humans are

the peak the top of the food chain in this long arc of history on earth or do you think we're just somewhere in the middle are we are we the basic

functional operations of a CPU are we the C++ program the Python Perl Network like somebody's you know people have calculated like how many operations does

the brain do and something you know I've seen the number 10 to the 18th about bunch of times arrive different ways so could you make a computer that did 10 to the 20th operations yes sure do you

think we're gonna do that now is there something magical about how brains compute things I don't know you know my personal experiences interesting cuz you know you think you

know how you think and then you have all these ideas and you can't figure out how they happened and if you meditate you know the like what what you can be aware

of is interesting so I don't know if brains are magical or not you know the physical evidence says no lots of people's personal experiences yes so

what would be funny as if brains are magical and yet we can make brains with more computation you know I don't know what to say about that but what do you

think magic is an emergent phenomena what would be our than me I don't know teller of what what what in your view is

consciousness with with consciousness yeah like what you know cautiousness love things that are these deeply human things that seems to emerge from our

brain is that something that we'll be able to make encode in chips that get faster and faster and faster and faster the flick of 10 our conversations no but

nobody really knows can you summarize it in a couple of couple of words many people have observed that organisms run at lots of different levels right if you

got two neurons somebody said you'd have one sensory neuron and one motor neuron right so we move towards things and away from things and we have physical integrity and safety or not right and

then if you look at the animal kingdom you can see brains that are a little more complicated and at some point there's a planning system and then there's an emotional system that's you

know happy about being safe or unhappy about being threatened right and then our brains have massive numbers of structures you know like planning and

movement and thinking and feeling and drives and emotions and we seem to have multiple layers of thinking systems and we have a brain a dream system that

nobody understands whatsoever which I find completely hilarious and you can think in a way that those systems are

more independent and you can observe you know the different parts of yourself can observe I don't know which one's magical I don't

know which ones not computational so is it possible that it's all computation probably is there a limit to computation I don't think so

do you think the universe is a computer I think he seems to be it's a weird kind of computer because if it was a computer

right like when they do calculations on what it how much calculation it takes to describe quantum effects is unbelievably high so if it was a computer when you

built it out of something that was easier to compute right that's that's a funny it's a funny system but then the simulation guys have pointed out that the rules are kind of interesting like when you look really close it's

uncertain and the speed of light says you could only look so far and things can't be simultaneous except for the odd entanglement problem where they seem to be like the rules are all kind of weird

and somebody said physics is like having 50 equations with 50 variables to define 50 variables like you know it's it's you know like physics itself has been a

shitshow for thousands of years it seems odd when you get to the corners of everything you know it's either uncomputable or on definable or uncertain it's almost like the designers

the simulation are trying to prevent us from understanding it perfectly but but also the things that require calculations requires so much calculation that our idea of the

universe of a computer is absurd because every single little bit of it takes all the computation in the universe to figure out gee that's a weird kind of computer you know you say the simulation

is running in the computer which has by definition infinite computations not infinite oh you mean if the universe is infinite yeah piece of our universe seems to take

infinite computation I hit you're out just a lot whoa a lot some pretty big number compute this little teeny spot takes all the mass in the local one

little year by one like your space it's close enough to infinite so it's a heck of a computer if it is one I know it's it's it's a weird it's a weird description because the simulations description seems too

the break when you look closely at it but the rules in universe seemed to imply something's up that seems a little arbitrary the whole the universe the

whole thing the the laws of physics you know it just seems like like how did it come out to be yeah the way it is but lots of people talk about that it's you know it's like I said the two smartest

groups of humans are working on the same problem different different aspects and they're both complete failures so that's kind of cool

they might succeed eventually well after two thousand years the trend isn't good two thousand years is nothing in the span of the history of the universe so we have some time but the next thousand

years doesn't look good either so that's what everybody says that every stage but with Moore's law as you've just described not being dead the exponential growth the technology the future seems

pretty incredible well it'll be interesting that's for sure that's right so what are your thoughts on Ray Kurzweil sense that exponential improvement and technology will continue

indefinitely that is that how you see Moore's law do you see Moore's law more broadly and since the technology of all

kinds has a way of stacking s curves on top of each other where it'll be exponential and then we'll see all kinds of what was an exponential of a million

mean that's that's a pretty amazing number and that's just for a local little piece of silicon now it's imagine you say decided to get a thousand tons

of silicon to collaborate in one computer at a million times the density like now you know you're talking I don't know 10 to the 20th more computation

power then our current already unbelievably fast computers like nobody knows what that's going to mean you know the sci-fi guys called you know

computron 'i'm like when like a local civilization turns the nearby star into a computer I like I don't that's true but so just even when you shrink a

transistor the that's only one dimension of the ripple effects of that but people tend to think about computers the cost problem right so computers are

made out of silicon and minor amounts of metals and you know this and that none of those things cost any money like there's plenty of sand like like you

could just turn the beach and a little bit ocean water in the computers so all the cost is and equipment to do it and the trend on equipment is once you figure out a build the equipment the

trend of cost is zero Elon said first you figure out what configuration you want the atoms in and then how to put them there right yeah

cuz well what here's you know his his great insight is people are how constrained I have this thing I know how it works and then little tweaks to that

will generate something as opposed to what do I actually want and then figure out how to build it it's a very different mindset and almost nobody has

it obviously well let me ask on that topic you were one of the key early people in the development of autopilot at least in the hardware side Elon Musk

believes that autopilot and vehicle autonomy if you just look at that problem can follow this kind of exponential improvement in terms of the ha the how question that we're talking about there's no reason why I can't what

are your thoughts on this particular space of vehicle autonomy and you're a part of it and Elon Musk's and Tesla's

vision well the computer you need to build was straightforward and you can argue well doesn't need to be 2 times faster or 5 times or 10 times but that's

just a matter of time or price in the short run so that's that's not a big deal you don't have to be especially smart to drive a car so it's not like a super hard problem I mean the big

problem with safety is attention which computers are really good at not skills well let me push back on one you see

everything you said it's correct but we as humans tend to tend to take for granted how how incredible our vision

system is so you can drive a car of 2050 vision and you can train a neural network to extract a distance of any object in the shape of any surface from a video and

data but that really simple not simple I look that's a simple data problem it's not it's not simple it's because you

because it's not just detecting object it's understanding the scene and it's being able to do it in a way that doesn't make errors so the beautiful thing about the human vision system and

the entire brain around the whole thing is we were able to fill in the gaps it's not just about perfectly detecting cars it's inferring the occluded cars it's

trying to it's it's understanding the I think it's mostly a bigger problem you so you think what data you know with compute with improvement of computation with improvement in collection well there is a you know when you're driving

a car and somebody cuts you off your brain has theories about why they did it you know they're a bad person they're distracted they're dumb you know you can listen to yourself

right so you know if you think that narrative is important to be able to successfully drive a car then current autopilot systems can't do it but if cars are ballistic things with tracks

and probabilistic changes of speed and direction and roads are fixed and given by the way they don't change dynamically right you can map the world really

thoroughly you can place every object really thoroughly right you can calculate trajectories of things really

thoroughly right but everything you said about really thoroughly has a different degree of difficulty so you could say at some point computer autonomous systems

will be way better it's things that humans are allows yet like it'll be better at abstention they'll always remember there was a pothole in the road that humans keep forgetting about

they'll remember that this set of roads how these weirdo lines on it the computers figured out once and especially if they get updates so if

somebody changes a given like that Akita robots and stuff somebody said is to maximize two Givens okay right so though having a robot pick

up this bottle cap is ways you put a red dot on the top because then you have to figure out you know if you want to do a certain thing with it you know maximize the Givens is the thing and autonomous

systems are happily maximizing the Givens like humans when you drive someplace new you remember it because you're processing it the whole time and after the 50th time you drove to work

you get to work you don't know how you got there right you're on autopilot right autonomous cars are always on autopilot but the cars have no theories

about why they got cut off or why they're in traffic so they'll never stop paying attention right so I tend to believe you do have deaf theories mental models of other people especially

pedestrians cyclists but also with other cars everything you said is like is actually essential to driving driving is a lot more complicated than people

realize I think so sort of to push back slightly but cut into traffic right yeah you can't just wait for a gap you have to be somewhat aggressive you'd be surprised how simple a calculation for

that is I may be on that particular point but there's a that it may be asked you to push back I would be surprised you know what yeah I'll just say where I

stand I would be very surprised but I think it's you might be surprised how complicated it is that I'd say that I tell people's like progress disappoints in the short run the surprises in the

long run it's very possible yeah I suspect in 10 years it'll be just like taken for granted yeah but you're probably right now look like it's gonna be a $50 solution that nobody cares

about like GPS is like wow GPS is we have satellites in space that tell you where your location is it was a really big deal now everything is the GPS I mean yeah it's true but I do think that

systems that involve human behavior are more complicated than we give them credit for so we can do incredible things with technology that don't involve humans but when you look humans

are less complicated than people you know frequently obscure I've maybe I stand off right out of large numbers of patterns and just keep doing it over but I can't trust you because you're a

human that's something something a human would say but I might my hope was on the point you've made is even if no matter who is right Eve there I'm hoping that

there's a lot of things that humans aren't good at that machines are definitely good I like you said attention and things like that well they'll be so much better that the overall picture of safety in autonomy

will be obviously cars will be safer even if they're not as good I'm a big believer in safety I mean there are already the current safety systems like cruise control that doesn't let you run

into people and lane-keeping there are so many features that you just look at the pareto of accidents and knocking off like 80% of them you know super doable

just a wing guard on the autopilot team and the efforts there the it seems to be that there's a very intense scrutiny by the media and the public in terms of

safety the pressure the bar but before autonomous vehicles what are your sort of as a person they're working on the hardware and trying to build a system

that builds a safe vehicle and so on what was your sense about that pressure is it unfair is it expected of new technology it seems reasonable I was interested I talked to both American and

European regulators and I was worried that the regulations would write into the rules technology solutions like

modern brake systems imply hydraulic brakes so if you'll read the regulations to meet the letter of the law for brakes it sort of has to be hydraulic right and

the regulator said there they're interested in the use cases like a head-on crash an offset crash don't hit pedestrians don't run into people don't leave the road don't run a red light or

a stop light they were very much into the scenarios and you know and they had they had all the data about which scenarios injured or killed to most

people and for the most part those conversations were like what's the right thing to do to take the next step

now elan is very interested also in the benefits of autonomous driving or freeing people's time and attention as well as safety and I think that's also

an interesting thing but you know building an autonomous system so they're safe and safer and people seemed since the goals to be tannic seifer's and

people having the bar to be safer than people and scrutinizing accidents seems philosophically you know correct so I

think that's a good thing what R is is different than the things you've worked at new Intel AMD apple

with autopilot chip design and hardware design what are interesting or challenging aspects of building this specialized kind of competing system in the automotive space I mean there's two

tricks to building like an automotive computer one is to software our team the machine learning team is developing algorithms that are changing fast

so as you're building the the accelerator you have this you know worry or intuition that the algorithms will change enough that the accelerator will

be the wrong one right and there's the generic thing which is if you build a really good general-purpose computers hey it's performance is one and then GPU guys will deliver about 5x to

performance for the same amount of silicon because instead of discovering parallelism you're given parallelism and then special accelerators get another

two to five X on top of a GPU because you say I know the math is always 8-bit integers and two 32-bit accumulators and the operations are the subsets of

mathematical possibilities so although you know AI accelerators have a claimed performance benefit over GPUs because in

the narrow math space you're nailing the algorithm now you still try to make it programmable but the AI field is changing really fast so there's a you

know there's little creative tension era of I want the acceleration afforded by specialization without being over specialized so that the new algorithm is so much more effective that you'd have been

better off on a GPU so there's attention there to build a good computer for an application like automotive there's all kinds of sensor inputs and safety

processors and a bunch of stuff so one of loans goal is to make it super affordable so every car gets an autopilot computer so some of the recent startups you look at and they have a server in the trunk because they're

saying I'm going to build this autopilot computer replaces the driver so their cost budgets ten or twenty thousand dollars and eelain's constraint was I'm gonna put one every in every car whether

people buy autonomous driving or not so the cost constraint he had in mind was great right and to hit that you had to think about the system design that's complicated it's it's fun you know it's

like it's like it's craftsmen's work like a violin maker right you could say Stradivarius is this incredible thing the musicians are incredible but the guy making the violin you know picked wood

and sanded it and then he cut it you know and he glued it and you know and he waited for the right day so that when you put the finish on it didn't you know do something dumb

that's craftsmen's work right you may be a genius craftsman because you have the best techniques and you discover a new one but most engineers craftsmen's work

and humans really like to do that you know smart humans oh no everybody oh I know I used to I dug ditches when I was in college I got really good at it

satisfying yeah so digging ditches is also craft malware yeah of course so so there's an expression called complex mastery behavior so when you're learning something that's fun because

you're learning something when you do something that's wrote and simple it's not that satisfying but if the steps that you have to do or complicate it and you're good at them it's satisfying to

do them and then if you're intrigued by it all as you're doing them you sometimes learn new things that you can raise your game but Christmas work is good

in engineers like engineering is complicated enough that you have to learn a lot of skills and then a lot of what you do is then craftsmen's work which is fun autonomous driving building

a very a resource-constrained computer so computer has to be cheap enough that put in every single car that's essentially boils down to craftsmen's work it's

saying genius so there's thoughtful decisions and problems to solve and trade-offs to make do you need 10 Cameron ports or 8 you know you're building for the current car or the next one you know how do you do the safety

stuff you know there's there's a whole bunch of details but it's fun but it's not like I'm building a new type and they're all networked which has a new mathematics and a new computer at work

do you know that that's like there's a there's more invention than that but the rejection to practice once you picked the architecture you look inside and what do you see

adders and multipliers and memories and you know the basics so computers is always just this weird set of abstraction layers of ideas and thinking

that reduction to practice is transistors and wires and you know pretty basic stuff and that's an interesting phenomena by the way that

like factory work like lots of people think factory work is Road assembly stuff I've been on the assembly line like the people work that really liked it it's a really great job it's really

complicated putting cars together is hard right and in the cars moving and the parts are moving and sometimes the parts are damaged and you have to coordinate putting all the stuff together and people are good at it

they're good at it and I remember one day I went to work and the line was shut down for some reason and then some of the guys sitting around were really bummed because they they had reorganized a bunch of stuff and they were gonna hit

a new record for the number of cars built that day and they were all gung ho to do it and these were big tough buggers yeah you know but what they did was complicated and you couldn't do it

yeah and I mean well after a while you could but you'd have to work your way up cuz you know like putting a bright what's called the bright stuff at the trim on a car

on a moving assembly line where it has to be attached 25 places in a minute and a half is unbelievably complicated and and and human beings can do it's really good

I think that's harder than driving a car by the way putting together working working on the factory to smart people can disagree yeah I think drive

driving a car will get you in the factory something will see you're not for us humans driving a car is easy I'm saying building a machine that drives a car is not easy

ok ok driving a car is easy for humans because we've been evolving for billions of years drive cars yeah no juice the pail if the

cars are super cool no now you join the rest of the internet and mocking me ok yeah yeah intrigued by your you know

your anthropology yeah it says we have to go dig into that there's some inaccuracies there yes ok but in general

what have you learned in terms of thinking about passion craftsmanship

tension chaos you know the whole mess of it or what have you learned have taken away from your time working with Elon

Musk working at Tesla which is known to be a place of chaos innovation craftsmanship and I really like the way he thought like you think you have an

understanding about what first principles of something is and then you talk to you alone about it and you you didn't scratch the surface you know he has a deep belief that no matter what

you do is a local maximum right I had a friend he invented a better electric motor and it was like a lot better than what we were using and one day he came by he said you know I'm a

little disappointed cuz you know this is really great and you didn't seem that impressed and I said you know and the super intelligent aliens come are they gonna be looking for you like where is

he the guy you built the motor yeah probably not you know like like the but doing interesting work that's both innovative and let's say craftsmen's

work on the current thing it's really satisfying it's good and and that's cool and then Elon was good taking everything apart and like what's the deep first

principle oh no what's really what's really you know you know you know that that you know ability to look at it without assumptions and and how

constraints is super wild you know we build rocket ship and using the same car you know everything and that's super fun and he's into it too like when they

first landed to SpaceX Rockets at Tesla we had a video projector in the big room and like five hundred people came down and when they landed everybody cheered

and some people cried it was so cool alright but how did you do that well it was super hard and then people say well

it's chaotic really to get out of all your assumptions you think that's not going to be unbelievably painful and there's Elon tough yeah probably the

people look back on it and say boy I'm really happy I had that experience to go take apart that many layers of assumptions

sometimes super fun sometimes painful so it could be emotionally and intellectually painful that whole process just stripping away assumptions yeah I imagine 99% of your thought

process is protecting your self conception and 98% of that's wrong yeah now you got there math right no you think your feeling when you get back

into that one bit that's useful and now you're open and you have the ability to do something different I don't know if I got the math right it might be ninety

nine point nine but in 850 imagining it the 50% is hard enough yeah now for a long time I've suspected you could get

better look you can think better you can think more clearly you can take things apart and there's lots of examples of

that people who do that so any line is an example of that parent or an example says you know if I am I'm fun to talk to

certainly I've learned a lot of stuff right well here's the other thing it's like I talk like like I read books and people think oh you read books well no I brought a couple books

awake for 55 years well maybe 50 cuz I didn't read learned read tall as H or something and and it turns out when people write books they

often take 20 years of their life where they passionately did something reduce it to to 200 pages that's kind of fun and then the goat you go online and you can find out who wrote the best books

and who like you know that's kind of Alda so there's this wild selection process and then you can read it and for the most part to understand it and then you can go apply it like I went to one

company and I thought I haven't managed much before so I read 20 management books and I started talking to him basically compared to all the VP's running around I'd run night read 19

more management books than anybody else was it even that hard yeah and a half the stuff worked like first time it wasn't even rocket science

but at the core of that is questioning the assumptions okay sort of entering the thinking first principles thinking sort of looking at the reality of the

situation and using it using that knowledge applying that knowledge so mean yes so I would say my brain has this idea that you can question first

assumptions and but I can go days at a time and forget that and you have to kind of like circle back data observation because it is because part

Allen gene well it's hard to keep it front and center because you know you're you operate on so many levels all the time and you know getting this done takes priority or you know being happy

takes priority or you know screwing around takes priority like like like how you go through life it's complicated yeah and then you remember oh yeah I could really I think first principles so

much that's that's tiring you know what you do for a while that's kind of cool so just as the last question your sense from the big picture from the

first principles do you think you kind of answered already but do you think autonomous driving something we can solve on a timeline of years so

one two three five ten years as opposed to a century yeah definitely just to linger and a little longer where's the confidence coming from is it

the fundamentals of the problem the fundamentals of building a hardware and the software as a computational problem

understanding ballistics roles topography it seems pretty solvable I mean and you can see this you know like like speech recognition for a long time

people are doing you know frequency and domain analysis and and all kinds of stuff and that didn't work for at all right and then they did deep learning

about it and it worked great and it took multiple iterations and you know time is driving his way past the frequency

analysis point you know use radar don't run into things and the data gathering is going up in the computations going up and the algorithm understanding is going up and there's a whole bunch of problems

getting solved like that the data side is really powerful but I disagree with both you and you and I'll tell you and once again as I did before that that when you add human beings into the

picture the it's no longer a ballistics problem it's something more complicated but I could be very well proven cars are hardly damped in terms are ready to

change like the steering and the steering systems really slow compared to a computer the acceleration of the acceleration is really slow yeah on a certain time scale on a ballistics time

scale but human behavior I don't know it yeah I shouldn't say it beans are really slow to weed weirdly we operate you know half a second behind reality nobody really understands that one

either it's pretty funny yeah yeah so no I will be with very well could be surprised and I think with the rate of improvement in all aspects I'm

both the computed in the the the software and the hardware there's gonna be pleasant surprises all over the place speaking of unpleasant surprises many

people have worries about a singularity in the development of AI forgive me for such questions you know what when AI improves exponentially and reaches a point of superhuman level

general intelligence you know beyond the point there's no looking back do you share this worry of existential threats from artificial intelligence from computers becoming superhuman level

intelligent no not really you know like we already have a very stratified society and then if you look at the whole animal kingdom of capabilities and abilities and interests

and you know smart people have their niche and you know normal people have their niche and craftsmen's have their niche and you know animals have their

niche I suspect that the domains of interest for things that you know astronomically different like the whole something got 10 times smarter than us and wanted to track us all down because

what we like to have coffee at Starbucks like it doesn't seem plausible no is there an existential problem that how do you live in a world where there's something way smarter than you and you

you based your kind of self-esteem on being the smartest local person well there's what 0.1% of the population who thinks that because the rest of the populations been dealing with it since

they were born so the the breadth of possible experience that can be interesting is

really big and you know super intelligence seems likely although we still don't know if we're magical but I

suspect we're not and it seems likely that'll create possibilities that are interesting for us and it's its interests will be interesting for that

for whatever it is it's not obvious why it's interest would somehow want to fight over some square foot of dirt or you know whatever then you know the

usual fears are about so you don't think you'll inherit some of the darker aspects of human nature depends on how you think reality is constructed so for

for whatever reasons human beings are and that's a creative tension in opposition with both are good and bad forces like there's lots of

philosophical understandings of that right I don't know why that would be different so you think the evils is necessary for the good I mean the

tension I don't know about evil but like we live in a competitive world where your good is somebody else's you know evil you know there's there's the

malignant part of it but that seems to be self-limiting although occasionally it's it's super horrible but yeah look

there's a debate over ideas and some people have different beliefs and that that debate itself is a process so the at arriving at something you know I

wouldn't continue yeah just you but you don't think that whole process will leave humans behind in a way that's painful an emotionally painful yes for the one for the point one percent they'll be

there why isn't it already painful for a large percentage of the population and it is I mean Society does have a lot of stress in it about the 1% and the bath of this and about to that but you know

everybody has a lot of stress in their life about what they find satisfying and and you know know yourself seems to be the proper dictum and pursue something

that makes your life meaningful seems proper and there's so many avenues on that like there's so much unexplored

space at every single level you know I'm somewhat of my nephew

called me a jaded optimist you know so it's there's a beautiful tension that in that label but if you were to look back

at your life and could relive a moment a set of moments because there were the happiest times in your life outside of

family what would that be I don't want to relive any moments I like that I like that situation where you have some

amount of optimism and then the anxiety of the unknown so you love the unknown do you the mystery of it I don't know about the mystery it sure

gets your blood pumping what do you think is the meaning of this whole thing of life on this pale blue dot it seems

to be what it does like the universe for whatever reason makes atoms which makes us which we do stuff and we figure out

things and we explore things and that's just what it is it's not just yeah it is you know Jim I don't think there's a better place to

end it it's a huge honor and well super fun thank you so much for talking today all right great thanks for listening to this conversation and thank you to our

presenting sponsor cash app downloaded use code Lex podcasts you'll get ten dollars and ten dollars will go to first a stem education nonprofit that inspires

hundreds of thousands of young minds to become future leaders and innovators if you enjoy this podcast subscribe on YouTube give it five stars an apple podcast

follow on Spotify supported on patreon or simply connect with me on Twitter and now let me leave you with some words of wisdom from Gordon Moore for everything

you try works you aren't trying hard enough thank you for listening and hope to see you next time you