🚨 Largest Credit Hedge EVER | Oil to $85 | Is This the BTC SOL Bottom?

Ah, hello. I think I'm live. I forgot to do the intro. It's one of those mornings where well, a rough rough weekend and a lot of crazy stuff going on. To keep the

dog quiet, I give them this though hopefully. And and by the way, excuse

hopefully. And and by the way, excuse the beeps. My Trading View alarms are

the beeps. My Trading View alarms are all going off because everything is falling into traps. And

it's that Tuesday morning. It's Octo.

We're going to talk about crypto and energy and debt crisis. But as I was sitting here about to go live, SLI Sly said, "I saw Ray Delia was being very

negative about Bitcoin." Um, you got to put things in perspective because Ray Delia has been negative. He's been very consistently negative for a long time.

He's afraid of the global debt crisis.

He believes the world could implode tomorrow into a Mad Max sense because we're facing challenging times of, you

know, fourth turning type stuff, end of the existing regimes, disorder, high volatility, huge fiat pressures,

currency pressures, and he bundles Bitcoin into all of that as well. Again,

5 to 10 years has been very, very negative. Uh, but I just want to get

negative. Uh, but I just want to get that out of the way. Uh, so people aren't concerned.

And again, one thing I've noticed in life too, the older people get, the less tolerance they get and the grumpier they get, too. So, it's it's a true thing.

get, too. So, it's it's a true thing.

Anyway, shout out to Ray Dalio. He's

great. And thank you to the mod in the chat. Let's get on with the story and

chat. Let's get on with the story and make this happen. This is the energy and credit crisis and not financial advice.

Never. I'm just a guy on the internet sharing sharing news. And shout out to Elsie Cat, 66 year old female Patreon member. Awesome, awesome, awesome. I

member. Awesome, awesome, awesome. I

love the ladies in here and positioning themselves for the future. And there

goes the trading view again. Anyway,

let's talk about some of the ugly news.

It has been ugly, very ugly, but things are turning, and I'll explain why in a minute. Fear

and greed is 14. It was two weeks ago was five and last week it was nine. Now

it's 14. Still an extreme fear, but something weird is happening with the other fear and greed. We'll get to it later. With stocks, it's converging.

later. With stocks, it's converging.

Stock fear and greed is coming down. Was

at 49 last week, now 24. And the crypto fear and greed is going up. Huh. Things

are turning. Um, other ugly news too.

Again, I categorize everything on Tuesdays. Tom Lee is 7.34 billion

Tuesdays. Tom Lee is 7.34 billion underwater. Shout out to Marton as well.

underwater. Shout out to Marton as well.

This is a massive paper draw down. We're

seeing DATs, digital asset treasury companies fracture. One of the

companies fracture. One of the predictions I made about two years ago, I said if there is a bare market, uh DATs could be forced to sell or the bare

market could be triggered by dad selling. We'll see. But fortunately, the

selling. We'll see. But fortunately, the market's liquid enough to bear this in mind. I don't think Tom Lee is going to

mind. I don't think Tom Lee is going to sell. It's part of his comp plan to

sell. It's part of his comp plan to accumulate. But we'll talk about two

accumulate. But we'll talk about two other DATs that are potentially thinking about selling. Also, we have a crazy

about selling. Also, we have a crazy situation. Natural gas went from $70 to

situation. Natural gas went from $70 to $160 in days. Massive move, historic move. And that makes things very

move. And that makes things very expensive. Not just for you if you are

expensive. Not just for you if you are in somewhere that uses gas to heat your home or your water or things like that.

Uh but also industry it gets hammered.

That is a huge spike in price. Will it

mean invert? Everything mean inverts.

But there has to come, you know, the pressure of all the market forces that are going on right now in a place I won't mention need to be under control first and then you cannot make this up.

Okay, this is Ursula and she said the EU urges Ukraine to allow access to a pipeline carrying Russian oil. Yep, you

read that right. After all the sanctions and speeches and war talk and everything else, Brussels now wants the taps open.

You cannot make this up. For years, I said whoever has the energy holds all the cards.

And this is where we are right now. It

is again, talk about over a barrel, excuse the pun, over a barrel of oil or whatever gas is in a pipeline.

No energy, no nothing.

Nothing.

And Europe sadly did some bad decisions a few years ago. They listened to Greta shut down all their nuclear plants. And

anywh who moving on from that we also have and like everything is hitting all at once. It's very very bizarre. We have

at once. It's very very bizarre. We have

the largest credit hedge ever in history. Okay. We've been talking a lot

history. Okay. We've been talking a lot about credit, talking a lot about capex, talking a lot about the debt that companies, especially, you know, mag seven companies are taking on to build

AI data centers.

But this is crazy. Now, when you have things like stocks and assets falling hard and oil and gas jumping fast, banks start to worry about their borrowing

costs and they start tightening lending and lenders, private lenders start hitting the wall and rates go up and we're not seeing a specific credit

country yet, but we are seeing a huge acceleration in the pace of put option buying in US large credit ETFs. JNK,

LQD, BKLN, etc. 11 and a half million put contracts.

This has never been higher. The highest

we ever had was 10 million before in the last global kind of financial crisis.

And this is crazy. And also energy um you know the Iraq just shut down the Roman oil field, whatever it's called, second biggest oil field in the world.

Everything everything to begin with was on the edge of a cliff and now all the stuff is breaking all at once which could take us to some type of big

capitulation event. But this is yet more

capitulation event. But this is yet more gray swans. To my count we've had six

gray swans. To my count we've had six gray swans so far this year. And that's

why the markets have done nothing for 6 months. And that's why some assets have

months. And that's why some assets have gone down. But there are things that are

gone down. But there are things that are rebounding. And that you hear that beep

rebounding. And that you hear that beep beep beep. That's things hitting traps.

beep beep. That's things hitting traps.

Um, anyway, back to the dats. Marathon,

they're not saying they're going to sell their bag. This from Coin Bureau, but

their bag. This from Coin Bureau, but they said they're contemplating selling their bag. They have about 53,000

their bag. They have about 53,000 Bitcoin. Marathon

Bitcoin. Marathon has a ton of assets, ton of rigs, a ton of energy installations. They've got

global distribution across the Middle East and Europe and Africa and everything else. and they're trading at

everything else. and they're trading at a 5% discount to their bag. I'm going to turn off my trading view because it's just going to go crazy all day long. Beep beep. That's the

market. That's the market. Anyway,

they're not saying they're going to sell their 53,000 Bitcoin. They might sell a portion of it, but they're giving the market warning that they could. And then

Core Scientific, another uh Bitcoin miner that's pivoting hard to AI said they're going to sell a bunk a bulk of their Bitcoin holdings in 2026 to fund their AI pivot. Good news is Core

Scientific doesn't have a big bag. Okay,

the biggest minor bag is with Marathon by a factor of almost five. I think

Clean Spark and Riot are up there behind. But anyway, it just shows you

behind. But anyway, it just shows you the pain in the market, the credit crunch, the lack of liquidity, the

energy prices spiking, everything is absolutely weak. So, back to Ray Dalio.

absolutely weak. So, back to Ray Dalio.

Yeah, he's been waiting for this for 5 years or so. Maybe we're beginning to see some of it. But the good news is when markets are like this and the credit tightens up, the money printing begins and the rate cuts happen. In

fact, the ECB warned they have to cut rates. Okay? Because they saw the fact

rates. Okay? Because they saw the fact that I used to say no money, no fun.

It's now no gas, no fun. Gas is fun in some places. No oil, no fun. No help, no

some places. No oil, no fun. No help, no energy. It's critical. They got to do

energy. It's critical. They got to do everything they can to get access to energy and juice the system, which means cut interest rates and increase liquidity. Anyway,

liquidity. Anyway, that was the ugly news. did warn you.

Get into the bad news. Touched this

briefly yesterday. Grant Cordone slams gold again. The DCA guys had a couple of

gold again. The DCA guys had a couple of comments on this guy. Anyway, the point is if you do have a bar of gold, it's it's not liquid. You can't sell it. You

take take it 30% of the shorts. And I

heard an anecdotal story of somebody who tried to sell their silver in Australia from a community member when it went to about $105 and they were offered $70 or

$65 for their silver. Okay. They're

taking a 35% hit in the shorts. It's

these are these precious metals aren't liquid assets and they're difficult to sell. They're difficult to transport and

sell. They're difficult to transport and move around. Anyway,

move around. Anyway, back to the ugly, the bad news. Now, the

ugly jobs diverge with AI. This is a little chart here from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Dallas, and it shows you how the impact of AI. You've got red

is computer system design and related services jobs falling. They went up initially, but right there, the vertical line is when Chat GBT was released.

These jobs have been falling ever since.

And they have a very high AI exposure.

That is a problem. So as AI is growing, you're seeing less and less jobs in very specific technology fields while others are actually growing. But

again, it appears there are some people do want computer design, especially chip design jobs. But anyway, in other

design jobs. But anyway, in other interesting news too, OpenAI said in order to fund themselves, they're going to start advertising. So think of going

to chat GBT and having a advertising type experience. I don't know. I've

type experience. I don't know. I've

never been to Facebook, but I'm sure they have advertisements and stuff like that. But the people do not want that.

that. But the people do not want that.

They say they do not 52% of people do not want any ads on an AI chatbot. Uh

banner display ads may be okay, sponsored responses, etc. But the real problem is not only do the majority not want ads which will kill chatbt chatbt

have already fallen to fourth place in the AI world in terms of usage and fallen from graces Google and others pick up speed but chat GBT also would

you trust an AI chatbot that serves advertisements or affiliated brands to give you accurate unbiased answers the

answer is hell no nearly 80% said no so basically HachiBBT are depending on advertising to survive.

They raise a huge amount of money, but they still need more sources of income.

And the only way they see they can get that is advertising. And if they do, 80% of their people will leave, say bye-bye.

So, they're basically shooting themselves in the foot. So, they may have to backtrack on ads. Now, into the good news. Thank goodness. And a big

good news. Thank goodness. And a big thank you once again to the mods and everybody for being here. Let's break

this down. By the way, did I keep that comment pinned? I don't even remember if

comment pinned? I don't even remember if I did. Whoops. Sorry about that. H too

I did. Whoops. Sorry about that. H too

many screens. Too many screens. Welcome

to my world. Uh, Bitcoin is green so far in March. Hard to believe after five

in March. Hard to believe after five nasty red negative months. We're up

0.44% in the month of March. The

question is, we have never we've only once gone five red months, and that was 2011 and of course 2025, 2026. We've

never ever ever gone six red months.

Could we break a new record? Possibly.

But one of the things I love this expression meant to share it last week.

The bare market bottoms when the last optimist has turned pessimist. And

believe me, I am exposed to so much negativity every day from everybody's pissed off. Everybody's

angry. Everybody's upset. Everybody's

mad.

This is what happens with markets. They

break you. This from 36 years in this space. Do not leave the game in the

space. Do not leave the game in the bear. Bear is where billions are made.

bear. Bear is where billions are made.

But the bear is also where people get broke. Broken by the markets. I urge you

broke. Broken by the markets. I urge you all do not hang around in the in the bull markets. That's not where you make

bull markets. That's not where you make money. You make money in the bare. So

money. You make money in the bare. So

those that are here, thank you for being here because you're veterans and you've seen it all before. Now crypto over the last 7 days from our compendium, literally everything was up except for

Doge and Wolfie, which I think is the Trump stuff. Zcash down, Bitcoin Cash

Trump stuff. Zcash down, Bitcoin Cash down, Sheep down, Pepe down, memecoins down, and the privacy coins down.

Everything else was up. Everything else

was up. And Near Protocol was up the most, nearly 40%. It's funny. I did have a chart a week or so ago in the Q&A 8 days ago, nine days ago, and I had Near

Protocol as the fourth least risky asset. People wondered why. Well, I

asset. People wondered why. Well, I

don't know, coincidence or not, but it is a good protocol. Uh, hype number two, Polka Dot number three, ICP number four, etc., etc. Saul number seven, six or

seven up another 15% for the week after being hammered. But crypto, Bitcoin and

being hammered. But crypto, Bitcoin and SOL are showing great relative strength over the last crisis days, let's call it that. And Bitcoin ETF flows, this is the

that. And Bitcoin ETF flows, this is the weekly chart, are really coming up.

Yesterday, half a billion dollars came into the ETFs. The week before, nearly a billion dollars again, just like the market turning red for 5 months,

it's rare that the ETFs turn red for five weeks.

We will see if this pattern continues.

But if there is that perpetual bid coming from the ETFs, that will rise the Bitcoin price. Remember, every billion

Bitcoin price. Remember, every billion dollars that flows into the ETFs, it takes the price up by about 3 3.5 3.4 3.6% depending on the weather. It's big.

So, if you have a $100,000 Bitcoin, a billion dollars floats into the ETFs, expect the price to go to 103,000. It's

that simple. Don't And I've analyzed this data thousand ways to Sunday for two years. Anywh who the flows. Another

two years. Anywh who the flows. Another

view of the flows. This is all ETFs, ETPs, not just US ones. Over a billion dollars last week and that ended the fivewe stretch of outflows that totaled 4 billion. Again, we got a long way to

4 billion. Again, we got a long way to climb back, but from a macro standpoint, we'll see. Is there a shift in

we'll see. Is there a shift in sentiment?

Is Bitcoin going risk off or do people see it in the accumulation zone? I think

probably the latter. Let's look at flows by asset here.

Bitcoin was the primary beneficiary pulling in 881 million bucks. ETH 117

million at 54 million into Salana. That

thing has done incredibly well and it's good to see XRP 1.9 million because I don't know why anybody would buy XRP.

I don't understand it with their 1200 users. It doesn't make any sense. But

users. It doesn't make any sense. But

anyway, I don't understand crypto logic data driven decisions makes no sense. all season. Nope. But we are

sense. all season. Nope. But we are climbing up there. As you can see from this chart, by the way, a lot of things in the top 50 outperform Bitcoin in a

big way. That's why the alt season is

big way. That's why the alt season is perking up to 47, but we are there is no alt season for a long shot. But there

are selects that are definitely bottoming out and they're attracting a huge amount of volume in terms of inflows. And yesterday I did touch on

inflows. And yesterday I did touch on the diminishing kagger debate. And

again, it all depends on where you measure it. So don't freak out

measure it. So don't freak out everybody. But if you measure from the

everybody. But if you measure from the top in 2021 to where we went to in 2025, it's only a 7% kagger. That doesn't mean

7% return per year. A lot of questions about this. This is imagine you have

about this. This is imagine you have $100,000 in the beginning of 2021. 7% it goes to 107. The next year 7% it goes to 115.

107. The next year 7% it goes to 115.

The next year 7% goes 123k etc etc. That's kaga over five years has a big impact but it's been very low and that's the diminishing return story. But

because people are so freaked out about this uh there was a counterpoint this is the counterpoint of this and uh a broader crypto system will expand. There

are things happening that we see now that we've never seen before. Think AI

uh bring in abundance except for things that are scarce like Bitcoin. And then

we have AI agents which are going to pump the heck out of things like layer ones, the winning layer ones. It's all

happening very fast. There will be a billion agents, maybe 10 billion agents, maybe a trillion agents in no time. And

they will all be transacting on a blockchain. And this report is the

blockchain. And this report is the research and markets crypto market report. They believe crypto as itself

report. They believe crypto as itself will have a kagger of 172% out to 2029 and that will have huge impacts on all of the assets we are

invested in. So hang tight everybody.

invested in. So hang tight everybody.

There is another huge catalyst that I think JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley, who is it? JP Morgan believe the market

is it? JP Morgan believe the market structure bill will be approved in June of this year and this will fire up an

insane crypto rally, my friends. So,

we're in March already. Three more

months, 12 more weeks. It'll go fast.

We'll see what happens. and briefly

definitely in the kill zone right now.

If you have no Bitcoin, it's worth a dabble at 65K because this is a typical chart of Bitcoin supply and loss. When

it exceeds 50%, that's a very good time to buy.

Remember, a lot of Bitcoin has been held for decades, for 10 years plus, and when you have half of the supply and loss, it's typically it's a good time to step into the water and dip your toe. Also,

this is from this is from Wash Gorerra. Hope I got that right. Um,

Wash Gorerra. Hope I got that right. Um,

but the Bitcoin accumulation zone is in play. This is the red ribbon he shows

play. This is the red ribbon he shows here every time the RSI dips. This is

the time to buy perhaps allegedly.

Again 65K 64K 62K 66K. Not a bad time to actually have

66K. Not a bad time to actually have some exposure. And

some exposure. And just imagine for a second I mentioned it. If you had to sell your Bitcoin, you

it. If you had to sell your Bitcoin, you have to take 30% on the shorts because it's not liquid. Imagine what would happen to the price of Bitcoin. Well, it

would tank. Well, that's what you have with real spot gold. Anyhow, timing

Bitcoin buys. Bitcoin is in the cheap zone historically. And this is made up

zone historically. And this is made up across a function of different lines.

You have things like the 200E moving average which we got very close to. We

have the 50% extension from the 200WE moving average 100% extension of the 200E average and 150% extension and after that it becomes very expensive.

You'll notice as well my friends we only briefly touched expensive. There was no traditional bull market per se. None.

None. That's why it was a very different cycle this time around. Anyway, let's go back to Ethereum. ETF flows slightly positive for the week, pulling in 38

million. Not bad. Salana pulling in 17.4

million. Not bad. Salana pulling in 17.4 million. And that is yesterday. Just one

million. And that is yesterday. Just one

day for the week. And the previous Actually, that's on the daily. Excuse

me. That should be a weekly chart. My

bad. That is the daily. 17.4 million

yesterday. And uh had a very big day last Thursday or Wednesday. One of the biggest days, second biggest day ever for the SOL ETF. So, somebody's

accumulating Saul and I wonder why. Are

people actually looking at data for once? I hope so. This is transactions

once? I hope so. This is transactions which are driven a lot now by X42 agents who are using crypto to do stuff. This

from D5 development corporation. Total

transactions in Feb 2026 which just ended 3.41 billion transactions. Binance

number two 420 million. Base number

three 316 million. And for comparison, ETH does 62 million. Salon is now doing 60 times what ETH does. But of course,

ETH is driven by Bass and Bass does a lot of activity, etc. Tron is there too.

Um, Near Protocol is not there as well, but I think they threw in Cardano as well for giggles. 20,000 transactions

in a month. There must be like 800 users on Cardano. 800 versus 6 million on

on Cardano. 800 versus 6 million on Salana. Anyway,

Salana. Anyway, shout out to Charles Hoskinson who mocked me in 2021 when I said it doesn't make any logical sense for the market

cap of Cardano to be bigger than Salana and he looked at me like I was an idiot.

Who has the last laugh now? Anyway,

stocks. Get into stocks. They got

hammered last week. Nvidia down 7%.

Google 4%. Amazon down 1%, Tesla down 3%, Broadcom 4%, a lot of red across the board across all sectors, financial services, pharma, you name it. Of

course, software gets continued to hammered, but somehow Microsoft up 3%.

So that was a bit of a turnaround, which is good. And the stocks fear and greed

is good. And the stocks fear and greed is 29 converging with the crypto fear and greed. Nice to see that was at

and greed. Nice to see that was at nearly 50 last week. and volatility

spiked those VIX traders out there that is up huge 26% basically in two days and that is an ugly situation when volatility goes high two reasons either

the markets are crashing or they're exploding normally it's a crashing and when volatility is high people are very nervous markets like certainty when things are going like this they freak

out so puts a lot of downward pressure on things and a little bit of SpaceX XA and Tesla how it all works together.

It's a long story how all these different pieces work, but this is the power of Musk Industries. You don't need to get bogged down in the value, but it's how different entities benefit from

each other. So X owns all the real-time

each other. So X owns all the real-time news data on the planet and the chatter.

XAI has the most coherent compute on the planet. SpaceX has global coms and going

planet. SpaceX has global coms and going to build data centers in space in the next couple of years. And Tesla powers a lot of it. And Tesla uses a lot of it

like the AI to maybe create new physics, new materials, etc. for space. We know

that the Cybertruck materials, the bulletproof material on the car came from SpaceX. Metallergy, I always get

from SpaceX. Metallergy, I always get stuck with that word. I hope I said it right. But the point is there is

right. But the point is there is infinite synergy across all these companies, which is very exciting to watch and they're all vertically integrated because they all do their own stuff. So if they need something, they

stuff. So if they need something, they don't go out to the market. They

typically buy from each other, which is awesome. And another view of how big the

awesome. And another view of how big the impact of this is. SpaceX valuation is up 40% in just months now valued at $1.75 trillion. There's rumors that the

$1.75 trillion. There's rumors that the IPO might move to March. I don't know if they can get it done that fast. Maybe

April, but June at the latest and that is being fasttracked.

And then then I would be very worried if I was a telco carrier for mobile communications around the world. There

something like 300 million people already have access to SpaceX through their mobile devices. Especially in

far-flung places. If you're climbing up uh Kilimanjaro or something and you need to send a text message. Yeah. You do it with SpaceX. Crazy. One guy as a side

with SpaceX. Crazy. One guy as a side hustle creates a global internet. Crazy.

Anyway, and AI is still on fire and the mega funds, VC mega funds are pulling in tons of money. Funds raised 2023 to 20

26 versus 2002 to 2022. We're talking a 20-year period versus a threeyear period. The money is almost the same. 22

period. The money is almost the same. 22

billion in the last three years versus 32 billion for Andre and Horowits over the last 20 years. Uh Thrive doubled light speeded 12 billion versus 19

billion etc. CO2 and others these are the big players and watch what they do.

But it's also an extremely difficult time to invest as a VC because everything is changing so fast. You used

to have you know a 3 to 5 year period to make your money back. But now when the world is changing in six months, well used to change in five years or 10 years, it's difficult to put your finger

on the moving target. Also, this is interesting. Although a lot of people

interesting. Although a lot of people believe money will make you live longer.

Well, scientifically proven, it's not.

This is a list of the top 10 living billionaires.

Steve Bulmer, number 10, by the way.

You'll notice you'll notice Bill Gates is not on the top 10. and Bill Gates had way more Microsoft stock than Steve Bulmer. What's the difference between

Bulmer. What's the difference between Bill Gates and still Steve Bulmer? One

held Microsoft. The other invested in vaccines and shorting Tesla and stuff like that. So sometimes it's good to

like that. So sometimes it's good to just huddle and sit tight. Steve Balmer,

life expectancy 90. He's currently 69.

Um, but the point is when you compare this to real life insurance statistics, blending real world billionaire mortality patterns with general

population benchmarks, you don't actually live longer. There

are no currently no radical anti-aging therapies. Their life expectancy is

therapies. Their life expectancy is expected to be the same as all others.

So, don't worry about you need a billion to live longer. Doesn't matter. doesn't

matter. You need to live clean, good genetics, etc. And open AI did did nail their round, I couldn't believe people gave them money. But when you break down the money that they actually raised,

it was always another case of robbing Peter to pay Paul. So Nvidia gave them 30 billion, which will come back to them. AWS gave them 50 billion, which

them. AWS gave them 50 billion, which will come back to them because OpenAI use AWS compute. So it's like it's like here's your money. Now go buy

me an ice cream with it. Oh yeah, what would be the analogy? Going out to the bar and saying, "Here's 10 bucks. Buy me

a pint." Or I don't know. Anyway, it's

it all goes circular, which is very bizarre. That's why open A. I still need

bizarre. That's why open A. I still need to advertise. And we did touch on this

to advertise. And we did touch on this very briefly yesterday. The best hedge after oil supply shocks. We are in a big oil supply shock right now. Of course,

oil does well, but markets move faster.

So, a lot of the gains are already in.

Oil's up over 20% 25% already. Gold goes

up, copper goes up. I got a little copper exposure. And the dollar goes up,

copper exposure. And the dollar goes up, and we're now seeing Bitcoin and Salana turn. That's I turned off my trading

turn. That's I turned off my trading view so it wouldn't beep like hell. I'm

going to turn on just to see if anything has changed since I began doing this video. 68K for Bitcoin. So, that has

video. 68K for Bitcoin. So, that has rebounded quite a bit. And uh

Salana 85 bucks. Not bad. So big thank you to Cyber Sniper, GD Tesla, Shauny K8 and Panda,

Pand Pandax, Panda, and Cathwith. Thank

you so much. It's interesting. Early

morning video today, so I got some things to do, but the crowd is quite different. Thank you all for being here.

different. Thank you all for being here.

Hope you enjoyed the show. Hit the like.

This is a crazy time, but now now is the time to start tiptoeing into the market, my friends. Not financial advice. Things

my friends. Not financial advice. Things

are looking like they're turning at last. Even the spike. So, the thing is

last. Even the spike. So, the thing is you got to take into account the crazy market conditions, the simultaneous credit crunch, energy crunch, liquidity crunch,

and the markets are going up. At least

crypto is. Thank you all for coming. See

you later. Bye.