Markets React to U.S. Capture of Maduro

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All right, everybody. Welcome to the first

right, everybody. Welcome to the first 2026 edition of Bits and Bips, where, excuse me, where we explore how crypto

and macro collide one basis point at a time. I'm your host Austin Campbell, uh,

time. I'm your host Austin Campbell, uh, high scholar of Zero Knowledge Consulting, also recovering from having three sick children in the house over the holidays. So bear with me with the

the holidays. So bear with me with the voice today. Here with me are our usual

voice today. Here with me are our usual two co-conspirators, uh, Ram Alawalia, Maester of Wealth, leader of Lumida, Chris Perkins, the golden hand of Coin

Fund. And today, super excited to have

Fund. And today, super excited to have our guest, Peter Chur, uh, the northstar of macro at Academy Securities. He's the

head of macro strategy there. and we're

going to be discussing a lot about the worlds of crypto, macro, and markets colliding today. But first, remember

colliding today. But first, remember that nothing we say here is investment advice. Please check

advice. Please check unchainedcrypto.com/bitsandbbits

unchainedcrypto.com/bitsandbbits for more disclosures. And before we begin, here's a quick word from one of the sponsors who makes the show possible.

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>> All right, welcome back everybody. And

with the start of the year, uh, the first day of markets open in the week right now, I think the right place to start is going to be what is happening

with let's do Bitcoin. Currently, as I'm looking at it, a little bit over 94,000 and change. Uh, this is a pretty stark

and change. Uh, this is a pretty stark difference in performance from the close of the year where we had day after day of down and now we've bounced back up

dramatically in a single day. Rahm, I'll

start with you since you look at markets constantly. What do you see going on

constantly. What do you see going on here? What's driving this?

here? What's driving this?

>> So, you know, I think it's linked to the news over the weekend. People uh saw that Friday night, you know, there was a an action in Venezuela, woke up Saturday, the action was done. People

said, "Wow, what happened? Look at

that." They saw millions of Venezuelans celebrating the streets. And I think that ignited animal spirits. You know,

people feel proud. they feel confident, they feel excited. Um, I think that's that's a big part of it. That's a I think it's a major part of it. I mean,

overall, high beta has been working. I

think another reason for that is uh has to do with the kind of the open AAI capex financing story, right? So, you've

seen like the category of semiconductors trying to figure out what it's going to go do. It's about to roll over. Then the

go do. It's about to roll over. Then the

Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI is about to raise some money, starts going back up again.

Then Wall Street says, "Wait, we don't trust that moment. It's going back down again." And then there's news that comes

again." And then there's news that comes out that soft banks in for 40 billion.

Starts going back up again. So that's

another big part of this also is how much of the capex guzzling machine can be financed and for how long. And so

long as markets can see that financing in place, then they can start saying, "Okay, these companies will report, they'll grow, they'll beat and beat, and we'll we'll we'll stay on the train up

until such time that we see limits to financing."

financing." >> Chris, what's your take?

>> I got a lot of takes on this one. Um,

I'll start by saying that once again, this shows the power of crypto and the power of tokenized products. Why?

Because equity markets were fast asleep Saturday morning when Delta Force raided Maduro and and took him and his wife, executed one of the most seamless,

incredible missions in US military history, which I can't wait for us to talk about. That also like reaffirms to

talk about. That also like reaffirms to the world that the US has capabilities that are second to none and it puts a

lot of bad guys back in the box. Right?

As you saw how we left Afghanistan, it didn't look great and now it's like, "Oh, maybe we got it wrong, guys. So,

we're going to stay back in our box."

Like, we can we're going to talk a lot about geopolitics today. I can't wait to get Peter's take. Peter spends a lot of his day um no longer place kicking.

We'll talk about that. Um but he spends a lot of his day looking at this stuff.

But for me, from a macro perspective, it highlighted the point that crypto is awake. Traditional markets are asleep.

awake. Traditional markets are asleep.

We're not going to be able to go to through too many more stresses like this before people are going to be like, "Wait a second. I'm leaving uh the traditional markets behind. I'm using

tokenized assets because I can risk manage them. I can add risk. I can take

manage them. I can add risk. I can take away risk in the middle of the night on a Saturday, early Saturday morning, whatever." Right? So that was very very

whatever." Right? So that was very very important. It showed the fundamental

important. It showed the fundamental strength of Bitcoin because again, normally when you have a geopolitical action in low liquid markets, the markets tend to pull back and it's a buying opportunity. Well, guess what?

buying opportunity. Well, guess what?

Now markets, we got real- time feedback.

Wait a second. This is pretty good.

Today markets are rallying. So before we get into the details and why I think this is like such a I like to say a real politic stroke of genius. Um very very

good for for for Bitcoin, very good for alts. And we're going to get into it

alts. And we're going to get into it today. I can't wait to do it.

today. I can't wait to do it.

>> Peter, go for it.

>> Yeah. And I think I agree largely with the takes. I've got a slightly different

the takes. I've got a slightly different play on it. think and part of it if you look like Bitcoin is clearly outperforming everything else right AI those stocks are doing well and to me I think it's kind of twofold one is I think this is a bit of a realization

that Trump will get what he wants so even when you look at markets the Russell 2000's outperforming even the AI and you started at the start of the day right the mag 7 were leading but now you've seen this follow through so I think this is a little bit of a bet

Trump will get what he wants and that was maybe coming off the table people were concerned about that so I think that was a big part of it and then you know when I look at this I do believe that a lot of the countries that have been trying to get around sanctions

first during the days when everyone ignored the sanction they were probably taking in some crypto money and I think there was increased concern that they might be selling some of their crypto as sanctions were taking a bite and I think this starts taking sanctions off the

table in fact if anything you know it would not surprise me that if you don't hear chatter that maybe the US will seize some of Maduro's crypto to the extent he has it and that might actually be what we can use to jumpst start the

sovereign wealth fund that we've been talking about. So, I think that, you

talking about. So, I think that, you know, there's going to be a lot of fights over the assets Maduro has, Venezuela has, but crypto might be one of the easier ones. And again, I think this all ties back to you go back to

last um spring when we were all excited.

Trump was clearly for this. We put in a lot of legislation, but Bitcoin kind of faded. Maybe this is what jumpst starts

faded. Maybe this is what jumpst starts that. So, I think it's to me a little

that. So, I think it's to me a little bit twofold is Trump gets what he wants, so that's playing out through the markets. And also maybe this is an

markets. And also maybe this is an ability to seize some crypto and release the pressure of sanctions and not just here, right? If you take sanctions off

here, right? If you take sanctions off Iran, maybe if something gets resolved there, I think that frees up crypto to really grow again and takes away some potential selling pressure. I don't know how much exists or not, but that's always been a concern of mine in

particular.

>> Hey Peter, I wanted to add something and you said he gets what he wants. What

does he want most of all right now? He

wants his team to crush midterms. And I don't think the timing and the action could have been more perfect, right?

He's an American first president. He

shows that the military is back, baby.

Like it it is it is not to be messed with. Check. There's definitely an

with. Check. There's definitely an immigration thing going on because if he has his hands in Venezuela, which is, you know, and and South America, which been a source of a lot of the illegal

immigration, check. Got that. Fentanol

immigration, check. Got that. Fentanol

in in America still is a big issue.

Check. Got that. You know, economy, right? I'm gonna take oil. I'm going to

right? I'm gonna take oil. I'm going to keep I'm going to put money back into retail, right? Check. Amazing. For uh

retail, right? Check. Amazing. For uh

for midterms, uh rates are going to stay down because inflation is going to stay down. Like, this is all part of the

down. Like, this is all part of the narrative that's building towards midterms, which is very positive for him. Oh, and by the way, um what were we

him. Oh, and by the way, um what were we talking about before this cycle? We were

talking about Epstein, right? any word

of Epstein in the last news cycle?

Absolutely not. That's what he doesn't want to talk about. And so he's recaptured the narrative. And the

narrative of Trump doing having success in midterms is the same thing as crypto having success because right now, like it or not, those two things are tied. Um

I don't think in reality it's it's, you know, partisan as people think about it.

But this is a guy who wants to make the US the crypto capital of the planet. And

it feeds right into that narrative if he's successful in mid.

>> Can I pile in for one more sec too? And

you know, we've been talking about this for three or four months and I think it's taking place is I believe everything that's going on with the cartel or the drug trade in Venezuela is really a precursor to going after

Mexican cartels. And if you think about

Mexican cartels. And if you think about kind of from, you know, a very astute political standpoint, right? If we blew up drug boats in the Gulf of America or Gulf of Mexico three months ago,

everyone would have screamed, "Oh my gosh, we cannot do that." So, we did it in Venezuela, which is a little bit off everyone's radar screen. People don't

have that kind of visceral response, but now we've established this ability to go after drugs. We've now established this

after drugs. We've now established this ability to attack, you know, within the country facilities to do with the drug trade. I highly suspect that end of Q1,

trade. I highly suspect that end of Q1, early Q2, we approach Shine Bomb in Mexico and say, "Hey, we want to deal with the cartels. We will help you do it or we will do it on our own." And again,

it feeds in, I think, perfectly to the midterm election narrative, right? It

goes on and I do think the immigration, you can't overstate this, I think, is that if we can create a safer country for people to stay, that's where they want to be. If you look at the amount of

money that Mexicans in the US send back to Mexico, it's a huge amount. And part

of that is because there it's where their family is. That's where they want to be. And so I think if you first clean

to be. And so I think if you first clean up this and you make it safe for working environment, then the flip side of it is, you know, if you cut the head off the snake, which is the cartel in Venezuela, how efficient or good will

those Venezuelan drug dealers or, you know, the people have been committing the crime here be? I think you can push this at both ends. So I think it's a really crucial part of a strategy. And

again, it's multipronged. You get some of the oil, you send a message. You've

got Putin now thinking, Zalinsky thinking, certainly whatever happens with Cuba next. So I think there this has been multifaceted and again is pushing towards an election result, but I think Mexico's cartels are next in

sights because that will be the big thing for the US and it'll be an awesome thing for Mexico to be honest.

So on that note, I've also been eyeballing some of the implications of this from a macro perspective. And while

Bitcoin caught my eye, I think there's a component here also dealing, you know, Chris, as you alluded to a little bit with energy. And so look at the things

with energy. And so look at the things that are jointly exposed to though. If

you look at the Bitcoin miner stocks today, like what Marathon's up like 7%, Cipher's up like 12 a.5, so on and so forth throughout the complex. I think,

you know, as we look at markets implications for this, the action in Venezuela appears to have been interpreted as a significant positive, like very constructive for bringing

energy prices and commodities prices back down. And to me, I think there are

back down. And to me, I think there are two elements to that. One, being very realistic. I think the call it prospect

realistic. I think the call it prospect of adding additional significant supply out of Venezuela in the short term is very low. It's going to take a lot of

very low. It's going to take a lot of work to get in there and develop oil fields. And I think there are some real

fields. And I think there are some real questions about how much oil they actually have versus what the Chavez regime was reporting they had, which might be two very different numbers. On

the other hand, though, I think to go to the point Chris you were making earlier, from a geopolitical standpoint, this has probably taken a lot of concerns about energy disruption off the table. I think

there were some people when we started blowing up drug boats off the coast of Venezuela who were very worried about like a long-term hot war destruction of infrastructure the United States moving

in Chris as you noted like with Afghanistan and Iraq the playbook was boots on the ground and here nope showed up grabbed the guy left right it's like that old like panda book eats shoots and

leaves >> right and so >> you have a very different operating model and I think that's part of what markets are reacting ing to is this new frame of warfare that is like surgical

tactical extraction of key figures as opposed to we're going to go there and plant boots on the ground.

>> Love all the points and and nodding my head a few quick things. So, Bitcoin

today is as much a polling on Trump as it is a price on an asset.

Trump's ratings went up after this action that supports markets. That's why

high beta is working. That's why Bitcoin went up. That's why many other high beta

went up. That's why many other high beta assets went up. That's what that's what this is primarily about. Um on on Venezuela,

10 years ago, Venezuela was about 5% of global oil production. Now it's less than a point. 10 years ago, Venezuela had about 80 active oil rigs. Now they

have single low digits. They socialized

the means of production, meaning they stole from Chevron and production fell off a cliff and their people went into

abject poverty. Uh, and now Trump's also

abject poverty. Uh, and now Trump's also got a win with Malay in Argentina. And I

think uh I think you're right. I think

Mexico, you'll see some action there.

The question is what happens with Greenland? I don't know if you saw this.

Greenland? I don't know if you saw this.

Greenland said uh if there's some altercation then that would be the end of NATO.

uh you know I don't know how article 5 works in that scenario and who adjudicates that if the United States is part of the security council and well it's UN but NATO I mean it's complicated

things are out there uh but fundamentally you know that's what it's all about I don't think markets are discounting the NPV of Venezuela in terms of the energy

calculus just yet natural gas is melting and falling off a cliff oil prices are low and and staying So, uh, but it it really was an incredible move and Chris

really did a great job just identifying so many areas where it's like you put your finger in the dam and this one thing accomplishes so much. Uh, so uh and yeah, I do think it's it's setting

up for the for the midterms and you start to see this transition from uh Department of Defense to Department of War that's previewing more things to

come and Greenland is also going to be in the offing to see how that unfolds.

Well, I was going to say, let let's actually get to the specifics of what happened in Venezuela then to set the table there because I'll be fair and say I don't think we're going to go like

kidnap the presidents of uh Greenland.

But so what happened was US forces captured Venezuelan President Maduro in an overnight raid authorized by President Trump. Um he has been brought

President Trump. Um he has been brought to New York City where I am facing federal drug and weapons charges. Uh the

operation was primarily aircraft about 150 dismantling Venezuela's air defenses before a small number of troops moved in on the ground. Current reporting is that no Americans were killed and allegedly

Venezuelan casualties are in the tens of people. So approximately 80 currently.

people. So approximately 80 currently.

Um Trump has declared that the US will now alternately have influence over slashrun slash have a say in governance on Venezuela. Details unclear. The large

on Venezuela. Details unclear. The large

focus is on oil and energy production.

Inside of Venezuela, Rodriguez is now sworn in as the interim president. Uh

while opposition leader Machado is still calling for recognition of her ally. Um

the UN Security Council is holding an emergency meeting, but exactly as was just stated, the US has veto power there. And like let's be honest,

there. And like let's be honest, international law is largely fake and a construct of what people are willing to agree to because enforcing that ultimately is a nation state question.

So I don't know how much influence the UN has here but as I looked at that and I want to kick this to the group for comments after I frame it this way. The

United States over the past, call it 40-ish years, you know, the if you will, posts Soviet, postvietnam era, has experimented with a couple of different

methods of intervention in foreign places when we either liked or didn't like what was going on, right? Like we

were tangentially and mildly involved, but sent people to Yugoslavia as it came apart, especially the Bosnia conflict there. We put a lot of people on the

there. We put a lot of people on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq. We put

virtually nobody on the ground in Libya, but we're directly involved in like capture of a leader there. And now we've had a much more precise and targeted

strike on Venezuela. So I'm largely looking at this both from a geopolitical context and also a macro markets context. Right? Trump's openly talking

context. Right? Trump's openly talking about bringing back the Monroe doctrine and having the US serve as a scalpel to deal with these interests rather than a sledgehammer. see also what we did with

sledgehammer. see also what we did with Iran's nuclear arsenal like what do you think this sets up for the next few years geopolitically and then how will markets react to that given the change

in strategy >> Peter what do you what do you think >> so you know great question I would say one thing and and this is going to depend a little bit whether you're an investor where you stand in your

corporation or whatever but I would think one we got to be very careful when we talk about emerging markets I think we now have to really start distinguishing by region. I think

there's a huge potential for Latin and South American stock markets to do phenomenally well right as you pointed out right we've created the swap lines with Buenos Aries that's getting Malay on our side we're doing some things

there ultimately depending on if this plays out remotely according to any sort of plan that Trump has you get Venezuela coming if we're right about Mexico you get maybe Cuba then I I think you see

this and I do have to say you got to probably be a little bit cautious when you look at that you know north south allian sorry the national security strategy piece, right? It really does

focus on the Monroe Doctrine, North South Alliance and working on that. And

so I think what you're going to see is and when we talk to corporations, we're saying if you're have a factory in Thailand and Vietnam, you're not really well diversified because those go through the same shipping lanes. You

need to be thinking about shipping much more globally and as though there's risk that China may or may not decide to do something to interfere with your shipping. So I think you're going to see

shipping. So I think you're going to see as this develops steam for a lot of investment to be done in Central and South America because there we can much easier protect our supply chains.

Corporations can be much more assured that we are careful, right? The US still can project power towards Taiwan, but the tyranny of distance is real. It is

more problematic for us to do it there than it is in Central and South America.

Chinese Navy is nowhere near equipped to get anywhere near Central or South America in a meaningful way. So I think there is a safety there and what I think we've been calling this whole concept prosec or production for security where

it's going to be things like chips rarest critical minerals which we haven't talked about much but that is another part that could be in Venezuela and I think that's actually more interesting than in Greenland because on the rare earths and critical minerals

I'm pretty sure if it was really economically viable in Greenland someone would have figured it out already. I'm

much more willing to believe that in Venezuela, as messy as it was, there's been this opportunity and no one's figured out how to do it because they're so corrupt and they don't need rarest and critical minerals when they can survive off of drugs. So, I think there

could be opportunities there, but I think this is going to spread and the US government kickstarted it. I think it's US capitalism that's going to be the next step, right? You're going to see investments in this. You're seeing again

the crypto companies do well today. I

think you're going to see, you know, Intel's continue to do well. You're

going to see this US investment. We

talked to private equity companies who are looking at, hey, what sort of mines are out there that people have mining rights that no one's used? All these

things that we kind of gave up as we de-industrialized, I think come back on shore. Some will be on shore, some will

shore. Some will be on shore, some will be done with our close neighbors. So, I

think there's, if you're thinking about investing, North America into Central and South America is a huge opportunity here. I think Europe's going to be left

here. I think Europe's going to be left a little bit in the dust. I I'm not sure what they are going to do. I ultimately

think companies like BP and Royal Debt Shell will be phenomenal buys, but probably a year from now once Europe finally gives up and stops yelling at these companies who can actually provide the electricity they need to be to produce if they want to do data centers

or anything else useful.

>> That said, I do think we put some of our adversaries back in their box. So if you look at what was going on in Taiwan right before this raid and I think the weather dictated the raid. So they may

have tried to pull it off a couple of days previous uh but China was operating and exercising the largest um maneuvers versus Taiwan I think in history. They

were simulating a a naval bar uh blockade. And so this sends a message to

blockade. And so this sends a message to China and I think this is good for markets because if they're rethinking hey maybe it's not a good time to invade Taiwan. The US military and national

Taiwan. The US military and national security apparatus just sliced through Venezuela's national defenses like they were butter. Those national defenses

were butter. Those national defenses were largely imported for I I believe Peter correct me if I'm wrong Russian and Iranian technology. So we can pretty much go any place anywhere any time.

People are thinking twice before messing around. I think a strong America leads

around. I think a strong America leads to a more stable geopolitical environment which I think is good for markets.

>> Yeah. And sorry to interrupt again or pile in, but the other area we've been trying to talk about is Africa, right?

Africa is going to be critical both in terms of the population growth also in terms of the risk of destabilization because there are so many um you know homeless effectively and you know

refugees right there. It's a big mess.

Russia and China both been involved. I

think the fact that Russia has zero response to Venezuela will make countries I think a little bit more leer about, okay, yeah, if Russia's our buddy, how much does that count? It's

kind of like as Iran lost all their proxies. Hm. I'm not going to mess maybe

proxies. Hm. I'm not going to mess maybe with Israel because Iran's not there to protect me like I thought. You see a bit that with Russia. And again, there's going to be lots of legal challenges over who gets what in Venezuela. China's

going to try and protect that, but China has to really do a good job for their own benefit. Or else I think they could

own benefit. Or else I think they could see country after country kind of tip over and say, "Hey, you know what? China

was never as good as we thought. Yeah,

they built the project, but it didn't last anywhere near as long as we expected. We didn't get the jobs. We

expected. We didn't get the jobs. We

didn't get the IP. So, I think there's that opportunity. And I've got to be

that opportunity. And I've got to be very careful because I I think this administration's turning more transactional, particularly in Africa.

And why I've got to be careful. I think

you say transactional, people are like, "Oo, that's got negative connotations."

I don't think it does necessarily, right? I think in Africa, our policy was

right? I think in Africa, our policy was admonishment. Oh, we'll give you this,

admonishment. Oh, we'll give you this, but you have to do this. Well, I'm a dictator. Why would I possibly do that?

dictator. Why would I possibly do that?

I don't care. And now all of a sudden, okay, we just want your things. We can

have a transactional relationship. And I

think that gets us a little bit more of a playing field. So to me, like what's going on in Venezuela right now is the first time and we've had this economic friction with China, but it's always kind of been mainland China versus, you

know, mainland USA. This is the first time we're kind of taking this fight to Venezuela. And we're going to see how

Venezuela. And we're going to see how Venezuela responds, how the neighbors respond. It's very different. It's

respond. It's very different. It's

almost to me like when we had with the Soviet Union, there were all sorts of hot spots and it was never the US versus the Soviet Union directly, but we had our proxies. We had who we were

our proxies. We had who we were supplying. We are testing out our

supplying. We are testing out our things. So I think Venezuela's always

things. So I think Venezuela's always been a bit of a microcosm. I what I think Russia's kind of fallen down, looks very weak. I think they're getting taken out of the global equation, which would be good in Africa where they still

have a pretty strong foothold. And also

I want to see where India comes out in this because India is this kind of potentially emerging superpower. They're

very involved in that region. They've

been very quiet.

>> I would share a few observations. One is

I wouldn't underestimate Europe or investing in Europe. I I agree with the points around Mexico and Brazil. I think

Latin America is very promising. I think

Mexico is a beneficiary of French shoring and Mexico is an ally to the US as an alternative to China production.

But if you look at say Europe you've you've got international banks in Europe that are doing extremely well. Deutsche

Bank is get this up 130% in a year. HSBC

is up 70%. This is a these are boring decades old banks in Europe.

The MAG 7 names are up about 20% in a year about the same rate as the S&P. They're no

longer outrunning other names in the S&P. So I think international names

S&P. So I think international names actually can do quite well. And this

rotation from these max seven names to other areas really started with the uh Trump tariff war last year. It also

created a bid for alternatives to bonds like gold. I don't think that trend

like gold. I don't think that trend changes because the value in these names and the earnings growth is still attractive.

South Korea is interesting. Japan is

interesting.

>> All right. So I'll I'll pile in here and say on that front one to get to the previous theme and how I think it connects to what Rahm just said, Europe is a very interesting pivot

point for me as the Trump administration does openly become more transactional.

And I agree transactional is neither good nor bad. It kind of depends how you do it. It's just a thing. Um,

do it. It's just a thing. Um,

Europe is kind of caught between a rock and a hard place here because you have to ask the question of what do they have to offer to the United States in the current configuration of Europe? That is

to say, they don't have a lot of tech.

They don't have a lot of exports that we really, really want. They've been kind of antagonistic towards us politically in a way that I think people don't understand. Like if you're not paying

understand. Like if you're not paying attention to the drama between the EU, the UK and the United States over free speech where offcom and the UK and some

of the EU people attempted to reach over here and tell American platforms how Americans were allowed to speak to Americans on speech, you've really missed some geopolitical fault lines

emerging between the United States and Europe. So, as the US pivots towards a

Europe. So, as the US pivots towards a more western hemispheric strategy, I'm just not sure what the utility of Europe as an ally is in the eyes of the Trump administration. And again, that's not a

administration. And again, that's not a statement of like good or bad. That's

functional analysis. And that for me makes me significantly more skeptical about investing in Europe right now because if you think about Trump and tariffs and rewarding allies and punishing enemies, Europe could very

much be on the receiving end of some pretty ugly stuff if they continue with the antagonism over tech speech. And

then again, you know, as Peter said earlier, they're not producing a lot themselves. So that I think that leads

themselves. So that I think that leads us to Greenland >> real quick.

>> Yes.

>> Everything Trump has punished is up.

China's up 35% beating the S&P. Europe's

up. Brazil's up. Mexico's up. Gold is

up. Everything the thing that's not up, even bonds actually went up, too. Bonds.

So uh >> hey, when everything's up, it's just inflation Rob.

>> Yeah. Not printed is up, >> you know.

>> Not printed goes up. Well, listen. I

don't I wouldn't read too much into like Trump this, Trump that, and in terms of if you're the enemy of Trump and things go down, it's >> I I'm a little more skeptical specifically on Europe there, though. I

actually agree with you about a lot of the rest of that. Europe, I think, is uniquely vulnerable in this one because of their geopolitical situation. That is

to say, if Trump slaps large tariffs on Europe, or more likely starts retaliating in kind for things like fines on US tech companies, I think that could get really disruptive. Like, I'll

remind everybody, the Granite Act in Wyoming allows for US companies to sue EU regulators for overreach and essentially seize assets on that basis.

If things like that continue rolling, that's going to be very destroy.

>> Generally agree like their pockets like even France is being the United States by the way, put in perspective. France.

Let that sink in for a moment.

>> Well, I mean, that may have been a statement of starting point for France, but we'll come back to that one.

>> I think, you know, it's hard to look at these indices, too. I I tend to look at the European indices. They do tend to be heavily concentrated their banks. Their

banks have underperformed for a while.

And again, their banks were all excited about the potential for growth, the potential for rearming. You know, the one thing I can't get over right now about Europe, and why I'm a little bit more skeptical coming for this year, is I think Europe had one job to do in

terms of Russia and Ukraine. They were

supposed to seize Russia's frozen reserves. if they wanted to play a

reserves. if they wanted to play a meaningful part, the only thing they could do is seize Russia's reserves and use that money to pay for US weapons. I

think that might have changed the story with Trump where he said, "Okay, you seized 100 billion of they chose not to.

In the end, they couldn't get there.

They and I think even right now you see it again was they're trying to figure out what to say to Trump about there's macaron talks, but no one has any power.

There's no single person power. I think

that's one reason he even likes UK. At

least you've got Stormer who's like in charge of it. There's no one in charge of the EU. I think they struggle with that. I think they were supposed to try

that. I think they were supposed to try and seize Russia's frozen reserves. They

tried to get there. They could not get there. They add nothing now to the war

there. They add nothing now to the war effort there. And I keep coming back to

effort there. And I keep coming back to this concept of production for security.

I think it's going to replace ESG. It's

kind of the evolution of ESG. We were,

if you think about Maso's hierarchy of needs, we were kind of altruistic on what sustainable meant, but that was really based on the fact that we felt we had everything we needed from China to a large degree. You start ripping that

large degree. You start ripping that away and you realize your foundations crumbled. So for Maslo's hierarchy of

crumbled. So for Maslo's hierarchy of needs, you got to go back to that base layer and produce those things shelter.

And that's what I think the US is doing.

We're there. I think US capitalism starting to see that. That will drive American companies. And I think

American companies. And I think somewhere six months to a year down the road, Europe's going to realize it too.

Europe's going to take longer because ESG was much more embedded into their thought process. But I had a fight with

thought process. But I had a fight with um you know Baroness who's actually the house of lords last summer and she was like oh eur London or the UK is going to lead the way in Europe on data centers

and AI like you don't produce your own electricity it's impossible it's an unrealistic goal and she's like well we get most of our electricity from France okay well what happens if France needs their electricity as we saw a couple

years ago I I think everyone's going to go back to having to produce some basic level and once Europe starts seeing that then I think they can really rip and do very well again but I think that They haven't seen that yet. I think you're seeing a bit of that in Canada where

Canada is starting to realize this and I think this was a big wakeup call for the tar sands and things in Canada. They'll

still do fine, but okay, we better get on board with this. And I think you're seeing Australia, right, negotiating deals with the US. So people are trying to figure out how do we become part of this production for security and you

know, you still look to me at Europe, they're still blowing up, you know, the remnants of nuclear reactors and still kind of trying to rely on wind despite pretty obvious things like this doesn't really work. this was a bad strategy

really work. this was a bad strategy that's failed. How do we get ourselves

that's failed. How do we get ourselves over? And look at, you know, Northern

over? And look at, you know, Northern Europe. You know, the Hibernia oil

Europe. You know, the Hibernia oil fields, it's like they get criticized.

Like, why would you use those? That's

awful. This is horrible. Like, you need those things. So, I I think we need to

those things. So, I I think we need to see this mentality. I think the US is leading the way. I think this is part of a multi-year investment thesis at a policy level. And

even within the US, I think you're going to create very different dynamics state-to-state. Some states will embrace

state-to-state. Some states will embrace this. Some states will fight it tooth

this. Some states will fight it tooth and nail. Um I I think it Europe's going

and nail. Um I I think it Europe's going to have to figure this out. Again, BYD

automobiles, right? It sells more auto EVs in Germany than Volkswagen.

Volkswagen turned their entire business model to EVs. Like you kind of want to do face plant after face plant when you read some of these things. And Europe

doesn't seem to have hit realization whereas Trump has. And that's why I'm kind of very much on board for this.

>> So I'm going to chime in on Europe and then I'm going to pull it back to Venezuela. Um, let's look, let's remind

Venezuela. Um, let's look, let's remind ourselves of the way Germany uh treated Bitcoin. I think they seized 50,000

Bitcoin. I think they seized 50,000 Bitcoin. They dumped it as soon as

Bitcoin. They dumped it as soon as possible. Um, when Bitcoin was 50,000

possible. Um, when Bitcoin was 50,000 and then it took off. Um, there's a lot of folks who believe that Venezuela has a pretty big pot of Bitcoin. And if the

US does lay claim to it, I will tell you one thing that this administration's not going to do. They're not going to dump it, right? And I think that's an

it, right? And I think that's an additional tailwind for the asset class because it could be the way forward to create and incubate the Bitcoin

strategic reserve. Um, and again,

strategic reserve. Um, and again, totally different than what the Europeans have done in the past, particularly the Germans. Just another

tailwind for for the situation that's unfolding.

All right. So, before we go even further into that, we are going to take a break um hear from our sponsor once more and then I have some thoughts on the next steps down after the Venezuela thing.

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>> So, welcome back everybody. I want to start with a provocative question here based on one of the themes that we've been talking about a few times on this show, which is if the United States is

now more involved in Venezuela, we're going to have a hand in the economy.

We're going to be investing there. We're

going to be dealing more heavily in that region. What are the odds that Venezuela

region. What are the odds that Venezuela dollarrises as a result of this event, especially being driven by US dollar stable coins?

It's a great question.

>> Whoa.

>> Gotta be thinking about that, >> right?

>> Well, uh, okay. So, the most popular stable coin in South and Latin America right now is Tether. So, let's remind everybody of that. But there will be many other options coming. I'm more

suggesting that if we're thinking about projection of US power among our allies, giving them access to dollars, especially in incredibly liquid and very easily usable ways is one of those

things that you would expect to see more of on average over time. So, if we're buying more Venezuelan energy, if we are investing in projects down there, if we

are building economic partnerships, does that seem like a logical step? and

oil is priced in dollars still and be the interest of that to continue to happen. So you would you would need

happen. So you would you would need new policy and leadership that's on board with that, right? The current

leadership is saying one thing to Mark Rubio and Hex like hey I'll get you what you guys need and then saying to the domestic constituency that Maduro is

still the president even though he's being arraigned right now. So you need you need a few things to line up. Uh but

there's a path to that that certainly has to be in the on the intention set.

If not explicit, it will be very soon.

>> Yeah. I mean, when I was in Iraq, I watched the currency turn over almost overnight. Like it's not hard to switch

overnight. Like it's not hard to switch out one currency and old currency for a new currency. It happens quicker than

new currency. It happens quicker than you could imagine. Um I do think no matter what you were going to see more adoption of US dollar stable coins even more than you had seen. This is a

natural phenomena that's going to happen across the developing world when given the choice. I mean I think this is one

the choice. I mean I think this is one of the next battlegrounds. If if you're a dictator in any developing country, you want to hold on to that power and control of your local currency, but you're going to soon lose it. And so

there's going to be wars that are fought over stable coins. I'm sure of it. I

think this is going to undoubtedly accelerate um the the use and utility across Venezuela of US dollar stable coins. I mean there's I don't think US

coins. I mean there's I don't think US dollar stable coins are going to go down in use in size. I don't I don't see that happening. What worries me about the

happening. What worries me about the whole situation is look I was in a war where it quickly um faded it transitioned from you know we got rid of

Saddam and then a pretty massive insurgency broke out. um you know, how do we make sure that as as as good as this seems right now, it could turn very

negative. If if things deteriorate,

negative. If if things deteriorate, there's an insurgency, then you're going to see violence and then even more immigration problems. So, I'm watching really really closely having been

through this before um how stability is going to be maintained. Um so, yeah, man, super interesting on on the stable coins, Austin, I think you're right.

Watch them grow.

>> Yeah. And I would point out I think Venezuela actually does sell a lot of oil to China directly in Chinese currency. So again if you're trying to

currency. So again if you're trying to break China's back we know we've had clients who've had to try and negotiate contracts in Remnimi in Argentina again

I think if you go to Buenus Aries the two tallest buildings right now have Chinese bank names at the top. So

they've infiltrated it. They've locked

in their currency to some of these. So I

think again we provided these swap lines. I suspect we could do the same

lines. I suspect we could do the same sort of thing in Argentina where you really push hard to get adoption of stable coin to become a dollariz. And

yet it's going to be more friction with China. And the one thing I think Chris

China. And the one thing I think Chris is right, my biggest risk to all of this is that China starts getting frustrated and decides that they want to pull the plug on the rare earth and critical

minerals, not the extracted ones, but the actual process refined ones and say, you know what, those licenses we've been talking about, we're going to slow this down. Because I think that is their

down. Because I think that is their biggest leverage over the US right now.

It's not attacking Taiwan or something like that. It is holding back on

like that. It is holding back on shipping us the processed and refined rares and critical minerals. So when I'm watching for a downside to all of this, it's signs that and China won't be, you know, outright about it, right? All of a

sudden, you'll start hearing a week or two now, no one's getting their licenses approved. Then you'll get some noise

approved. Then you'll get some noise from China because they slow play everything, right? They're not going to

everything, right? They're not going to put they'll agree to buy our soybeans.

They won't do it. So I think the only thing that China really has leverage on against us is that process and refined rare earth and critical minerals and that's where they might choose to use it

if they feel like they're losing rapidly and seeing their global prominence you know devour. I think that's their only

know devour. I think that's their only real leverage. So that to me I'm

real leverage. So that to me I'm watching and that would be bad for you know US stocks at least the big ones but it would be great for those pros companies because that would create that real urgency to get these companies up

and running faster than we thought before. Peter that

before. Peter that >> sorry just a question that um issue on rare earth that's perishable right I mean across the board um the type of

refining that's needed is coming online across the globe um how much time do you think it we need until that's no longer a dependency >> I think it's realistically two to four

years to get enough that you're kind of and these things just take time to get on board um I do know when we talked to the administration Their focus is on getting the refining and processing more

than extraction. We've had some

than extraction. We've had some companies that do both. And I think it's an urgency. It's just a hard it's even

an urgency. It's just a hard it's even getting some of the deregulation. And

part of the problem is I think even this administration, which is way better organized than Trump 1.0, has way more people. We're still relatively short

people. We're still relatively short staffed and we're doing things on so many fronts that I'm I just don't know that this gets done quick enough. It's

occurring. other countries are looking at it, but I think you can get some substance of it done within a couple years, but I think to really be able to kind of, you know, pound your chest against China, it's a three to five year

sort of situation. I hope I'm wrong, but that's kind of the number that keeps coming to mind.

>> Isn't that three to five years and what's the best way to say this? Normal

times though, like I feel like with the rare earth thing, that's a bullet you can fire once because as soon as you do it, people are going to build alternate supply chains. they don't go back to

supply chains. they don't go back to what they were doing to some extent. I

would remind everybody that all of these, hey, we're pricing oil and remimi type things are because we pulled the plug on Russia with the sanctions with Swift and you can't put that genie back

in the bottle. And so I I worry with that that like that is a bullet you fire once and ironically by firing it you might make your opponent stronger in the long run as opposed to weaker.

>> That's why I think they haven't done it yet. I think their balancing act is they

yet. I think their balancing act is they know that's their leverage and their concern is that they're behind us on data centers and AI. So I think that's what they're balancing. Do they need us

more for data centers and AI growth right now than we need them for rare earth and critical minerals? And I think that's I think we're both sitting there knowing we're going to come to the table again in a year and a half, two years,

and the friction is only going to increase. And whoever comes to the table

increase. And whoever comes to the table better prepared wins. And they're trying hard on data centers and AI. They're

ahead of us on electricity production, which I don't think gets enough attention. Elon Muskly tweets about that

attention. Elon Muskly tweets about that every single day, and he's probably not wrong about that since anything that attach he spends that much time on is probably well thought out.

>> On the other hand, we have to build out that rare earth critical minerals. I do

think it would become a little bit more convenient if we rembrace Canada, Australia. There's some signs of

Canada, Australia. There's some signs of that. I think again, um, one of our

that. I think again, um, one of our general, Spider Marks, he's great. is on

CNN all the time, but he's been talking about that we're in a pre-world pre-war world, and we've never really been in a pre-war world. We kind of were we were

pre-war world. We kind of were we were surprised by World War I. To some

degree, shockingly, we were surprised by World War II. But since World War II, we kind of lived in a post-war environment.

Everyone was set up to be post-war. How

do we deal with that? And then the collapse of the Soviet Union, where it's almost this peace dividend. And I think if he's right and we do move to this pre-war environment, you get two things out of that. I think you get a sense of

urgency which we haven't had right we've been talking about rarest critical minerals we've been talking about chips for five years 10 years there's an urgency and maybe and I think this is more important there's a you know a

willingness to sacrifice yourself for the greater good and weirdly I think the sacrifice the US would have to make collectively is less regulation that we say all these things that we thought

would be really nice they're not musthaves having lithium dioxide having you know refined cobalt having antinomy are necessary and that's what we have to

do here and I think that might be the sacrifice that gets made is and clearly MAGA and Trump is on board with that parts of the country are not on board with that at all but I feel that that

momentum and maybe that would be again if to me the trigger was these Chinese negotiations where everyone kind of finally woke up and said wow we really are at the mercy of these people in terms of rarest and critical minerals so

all of a sudden there's that to me was a triggering point and the negotiations maybe they played their hand too hard and I do know there are companies looking at what patents we've been sitting on that we haven't been using a

lot can be done and again I think the administration can if they focus on it when they start procurement process they can enforce like hey it has to have x% US deal within two years or something

and we'll pay more for that so there's a lot that can be done again I think part of it is going to come down to we need to win the sorry the Trump party needs to win the midterm terms if pros is

really going to carry on and take on this life of its own. I think if they lose it becomes a bit more erratic.

>> So cobalt and stable coins take away the regulation. Let's go.

regulation. Let's go.

>> Well, I was going to say I'm not so sure this is a Trump priority, right? So much

is now becoming in some ways a bipartisan priority. You've seen a

bipartisan priority. You've seen a similar thing on the Democratic side with the abundance movement where a lot of people are now calling for look, we can't just look at regulations as what were we trying to achieve? We have to

actually evaluate the tradeoffs that happen in the real world for these things because like saving two Beatles is not worth noting a hospital and then having hundreds to thousands of people die right?

>> Yeah, I think that's spot on and I think I will and we get asked this question, you know, will proect just die and part of I go back, you know, Biden created the chips act. So Biden actually tried to take some steps. This hasn't been you

Biden saw some of this coming. I'm not

sure there were some issues with how the chip act and what they were trying to do, but this is just gaining momentum.

So, I I do think it largely goes on. The

sense of urgency that I'm kind of hoping for probably requires a midterm win, but maybe not.

>> I mean I mean I'll go back to like almost like the Bill Clinton thing if it's the economy stupid. In this case, it's affordability stupid, right? Like

if you look at the I know people are going to get confused by this comparison, but Zoron Mdani and Trump are actually very similar in some ways in that they laser focused on an issue

that was important to people and started hammering on it. And I'm not endorsing the policies, but I am talking about the media approach and what they tapped into, which is to say affordability is

going to become a bigger issue. So I

think there is overlap between many people in the Democratic party and the prosack elements of the Republican party on that exact issue for related but not

identical reasons. And hopefully that

identical reasons. And hopefully that stops being like a partisan point of contention cuz like good example we need rare earth minerals to build enough electronic devices so that we can build

enough houses and cars that people have places to live and things to drive. Like

all of this is interconnected.

>> Yeah. And I think electricity is going to be this electricity prices are going to be the single biggest election issue.

Not in the midterms necessarily, though it's already becoming that. But

certainly, you know, by the next presidential election, I think, yeah, it's nice that we have cheap oil and all that, but more and more it's electrons that are driving this economy and people are seeing those prices go up. They're

seeing brownouts. That to me, so again, in my portfolio, I love anything kind of associated with electricity production.

And I do think even Trump's going to give up on fighting solar. I think solar is going to be a key element of this. I

would not bet on wind. I think he hates wind and I've got a bunch of questions about wind myself. I've had fewer questions about solar. I think you're going to see solar and battery become part of this because if we are going to

build out the electricity we need for the data centers, for the AI, for crypto, it's going to require all of these things and it's going to create, you know, we need a backbone and solar is probably the only thing we can kind

of get up and scale in one to two years.

You know, we can get some of the others coal. One problem is again through some

coal. One problem is again through some of the ESG stuff. I think G Verona might be the only company in the world that really makes gas turbines like so yes they can do it but they have this massive weight list. They're trying to

make more but again to turn the factory on to make those or get people it just takes time and I think we finally see the light and I used to joke all the time that and it was a joke because you

couldn't be too serious because people get mad at you but the joke was always that we had this vision of sustainability and no plan on how to get there. China had no vision of

there. China had no vision of sustainability whatsoever and a really good plan to own everything that we might need and that's where we're at and now we're finally starting to try and correct that.

>> Peter, you didn't mention nuclear. Is

there a reason for that?

>> Oh, no, no, sorry. Nuclear is part of that and I think nuclear fusions again my portfolio. I like some of the SMRs. I

my portfolio. I like some of the SMRs. I like what we've already seen done where we're going to start trying to install small nuclear reactors potentially on army bases because we again that takes away a lot of the regulatory issues,

right? The army has pretty much free

right? The army has pretty much free will to do what they want. I keep

hearing noise. I'm not sure how it'll play out that some of the B, you know, the Navy has certain ability to have nuclear reactors in places that couldn't be otherwise. Maybe they can use that. I

be otherwise. Maybe they can use that. I

I think yeah, nuclear is a big part of my portfolio. I I think nuclear that's

my portfolio. I I think nuclear that's that. So, you kind of almost need to me

that. So, you kind of almost need to me everything to start today. Solar starts

coming online quicker. Then you get the coal, natural gas, fired things come on, and then you get the nuclear coming on.

And in 10 years, nuclear forms the backbone of our power. But you need everything. But you kind of need to

everything. But you kind of need to start everything today. It's, you know, I keep saying and I think it's a Japanese saying. I hope it's a Japanese

Japanese saying. I hope it's a Japanese saying or else I've been embarrassing myself. But, you know, it's person, you

myself. But, you know, it's person, you know, looks at a tree and like, you know, when's the best time to plant a tree? A hundred years ago or today? And

tree? A hundred years ago or today? And

I think we're finally at least at the today's thing, right? We can all and moan what we should have done 10 years ago or 20 years ago in terms of de-industrialization, but we're finally turning that corner and we will put all this to work. And I think you're going

to see fusion potentially play a role.

And you know, I did say this on TV and I got in a bit of trouble, but you know, I was trying to highlight the difference.

I think you mentioned I think I mentioned that if we saw a place to build a fusion reactor and there were some species of frog that we might wipe out, we might spend years worrying about

what to do. And if China saw the same thing, well, those frogs would be gone and there'd be no hesitation. I'm not

sure what's necessarily better for society, but if we're in competition with them, we're going to have to think more aggressively. Well, I I would also

more aggressively. Well, I I would also say that goes back to the balancing test part of regulations because, you know, like I have tons of family in healthcare

and you see a lot of things in that space that are intended to like solve a specific discrete problem but without incorporating tradeoffs can actually do significantly more damage than the

problem. And to me here, I think what a

problem. And to me here, I think what a lot of this process will drive, like back to highly increasing electricity prices is going to enrage everybody is some people will jump on the bandwagon

of well, we need to make all the AI companies stop and people should stop using computers and stop washing your clothes and so on and so forth. But the

reality is that's a politically losing position over time. Everybody else is going to start looking, Peter, at exactly what you said and asking, wait a minute, how do we build more energy quickly? And that's not to say just put

quickly? And that's not to say just put it up anywhere and it damn the trade-offs. But that is to say, you

trade-offs. But that is to say, you know, are five frogs really important, you know, as opposed to like not having blackouts in California hospitals shutting down, I think becomes a much

more like salient question. What's

interesting to me and sort of something I think people forget as they look at the United States map, a lot of the federal lands that could be oh, I don't know, converted into military bases for

these purposes are out west, which are also some of the governments Trump is fighting with. So, is this going to

fighting with. So, is this going to become a political flash point?

>> You think we'll do a better job? Oh,

sorry. Go ahead.

>> I I'll be brief. Look, I I wouldn't underestimate AI not becoming a political issue. Um AI is not popular.

political issue. Um AI is not popular.

Uh social media is not popular. Big

technology companies are not popular.

The threat of job loss from that is an easy political issue. There are

politicians uh advancing arguments along those lines. Uh not in my backyard is a big

lines. Uh not in my backyard is a big issue. State and local politics is a big

issue. State and local politics is a big issue. You can't build in California

issue. You can't build in California houses and rooftops that make any rational sense. So what's in the

rational sense. So what's in the interest of the nation doesn't always translate align with what's required on the ground to actually get projects

executed and then the electoral makeup of that and I do think over time we might be a little bit more thoughtful on where we build some of the data centers and AI and I think okay there's some low

latency stuff that has to be near the populated areas or near where the fiber is so that's going to keep but I think some of it doesn't need to be low latency and I could see a day where you have something that almost looks like oil rigs, right? You get shipped to

wherever the energy is and you work your data center three weeks, then you get shipped out because there's really no reason to transport the energy as far, right? That's the Saudis kind of biggest

right? That's the Saudis kind of biggest draw, right? Is they're like energy is

draw, right? Is they're like energy is expensive to move across the globe. Data

is cheap. They want to become a data center capital of the world. They got,

you know, the influence of Trump. You

know, Nvidia wants to sell them chips. I

don't love that idea personally, but you know, it's growing. But I think we could see a little bit more thought in the US of where low latency versus high latency, you know, things that can

accept a higher latency, where they're built, where they're done. I do think you're also going to see a shift where where's fresh waters? Where's some of the things that we need? I think kind of in this buildout, we kind of everything's been going south for a long

time. I think you're seeing some

time. I think you're seeing some evidence that some of these businesses are going to go back to the traditional manufacturing base as you realize that cheap electricity um which is potentially there access to fresh water

those things can actually make a difference. So I think you're seeing

difference. So I think you're seeing some of that turn a little bit and you're also starting to realize wow it's bad that in the winter you know you can't build for three months but it's just as bad in the summer when you can't

build for three months because it's 110 degrees and humid. So I think we might see some demographic shifts. there's

going to be opportunities I think in this country as we adapt to this manufacturing and where it does and which counties or states are more you know willing to do it but yeah I think

there's a lot of friction over the data centers the AI how it's being used where it's impacting hiring and the electricity usage so having explanations for that I think it's too new of a

problem to be a big midterm issue but I do see that developing into a huge issue for by the next presidential election >> you also just gave Detroit the road map

to becoming the economic center of America again if anybody was listening.

>> Uh there we go.

>> So all right, final question and then I think we're going to run out of time for today. What does this mean for some of

today. What does this mean for some of the other satellite states like Cuba which we mentioned earlier like as we look at this playbook and as we look at second and third order effects? We've

just talked through the energy and onshore effects but let's zoom back out from the United States again. What

should other nation states friends and foes be taking from this action? And

what do we think next dominoes, if any, to fall are?

>> Did you hear Rubio refer to the Cuban leadership as senile and incompetent? I

think that was an accurate statement.

>> It's true.

>> First of all, it's true.

>> Yeah, he may just be trolling because that's not wrong. Let's

>> add one other premise to this. it would

be politically popular in the swing state of Florida to take some action.

>> I might not agree that Florida is a swing state anymore, but I do agree it would be politically popular.

>> Yeah, look, I I think there's a there's a battle that that's being waged between the left and the right. Um, you know, like we talked about Argentina looks like it's doing things are going pretty well right now

from an economic perspective. Chile's

now turned right. Colombia is left. And

so I think there's a lot of noise coming, you know, via Colombia very shortly. Um if that's not sorted, uh

shortly. Um if that's not sorted, uh obviously a lot of drug uh a lot of illegal drugs coming in illicit drugs coming from that place. Um Mexico we talked about earlier. And then like

Cuba, if we're going to make America great again, um there was a time when there were a lot of casinos down there.

So let's see what happens.

>> There was also Bay of Pigs. There was

also Bay of Pigs.

>> How many historically the US has had some trouble in terms of regime change and accomplishing what they want and I think at the flip side of this is everything we're talking about I think has been very pro- US and what US is

looking to do. At the same time I think every country is talking to other countries trying to figure out okay if the US is going to behave differently and our assumption with the US has changed how should we behave differently what do we need to do around that?

Obviously, everyone's going to still want to do some business with the US and China continues to obviously talk to countries. And listen, I think when you

countries. And listen, I think when you go across the globe, everyone's got a degree of frustration with China, but I think the US frustration is much higher because the US is the only one that's kind of losing something. Like the US

was sole superpower. Now we're competing for sole superpower. I am Canadian, so I guess we'll say we fairly loosely there.

But I think other countries don't quite see it that way. Okay, well now there was one superpower. Now there's two superpowers. And who do we trust more?

superpowers. And who do we trust more?

Who do we want to deal with? And I I think the US has again a lot of what we've accomplished or Trump has accomplished think makes sense. How he's

done about it has turned some heads. So

I I think there's a clear path of what the US is trying to do. I think

countries are trying to adapt to that, but they're also trying to figure out okay if the US is not dependable, if we don't understand where the US is going.

I think that's probably my biggest concern to some degree is I think there were things that 20 years ago were inviolent that they sat above whoever was president and they were going to be

the same election to election and maybe there'll be some tiny shifts but people knew where the US stood 20 years going forward and now it feels like everything's becoming more and more open

to this four-year cycle where we've done so much you know this goes back to I think Carter and Obama you know there's been an exponential growth in executive orders, right? There there's been this

orders, right? There there's been this shift and I think countries are now finally just realizing maybe we have to think much more about this. And again, I think you just looked at what happened

with um Hamas um >> Israel, right? All of a sudden Biden would say one thing if he was in Detroit, say something else wherever they were, right? It was all about trying to get reelected. I I think

that's something that the US is going to have to figure out how to address. And

unfortunately right now social media and you know things t actually mainstream media is the worst. I think financial media is actually the best because financial media is trying to help decision makers make decisions. And I

can tell you when we were getting in some hate mail early on during liberation trying to explain this our CEO trying to figure out what do we write, what do we say. We figured our audience is decision makers at a

corporate level and investment level.

They want our opinion. Here's why we think this will happen and here's what it think it means if it happens. And I

think financial media does a much better job because it's not just clicks. It's

about helping people make good decisions. And I would include shows

decisions. And I would include shows like this in financial media whereas anything that's just pure clickbait and trying to all it does is destroy and make it very difficult to come to decisions. So I think people have to pay

decisions. So I think people have to pay attention to financial media for all their news because that's where you're getting I think a better mix of unvarnished truth.

>> Yeah. Hey Rahm, you you mentioned the Bay of Pigs. This Maduro raid is the anti Bay of Pig.

>> I agree. No, I agree. I mean,

>> and it shows how how how how incredible the incredible capabilities and power projection we have pulled away from the pack and everyone's taking notice of

that right now. And so I I think that's going to have a very strong stabilizing force that's going to be very very positive for markets. Yeah, for the for the background, Bay of Pigs was a

botched uh invasion of Cuba primarily with uh amphi amphibious forces led under JFK. It was a major failure and a

under JFK. It was a major failure and a major embarrassment. And you're right,

major embarrassment. And you're right, this is the opposite of that. This is

air power. This is combined force operations. This is intelligence. This

operations. This is intelligence. This

satellite is it's yeah, the US is is playing the game at a different level. I

I would suggest and I guess we can close on this note to put a like sort of capstone on what Chris was saying. These

may be the first like real engagements, you know, over the past yearish between this and Iran of what modern modern warfare is going to look like where we've moved away from boots on the

ground, everybody line up and shoot at each other in World War I to like maneuver warfare in World War II, but still with large formations of like humans and tanks rolling around to now even if you look at the front line in

Ukraine and Russia, that's being dominated by drone warfare and counter drone warfare tactics right now on the ground. And now we've moved just

ground. And now we've moved just straight to like zip in zip out very like intelligence like >> you know call it computational power driven operations. So it this is

driven operations. So it this is unleashing like new forces and I agree the US is leading for now but as Chris said things can also change quickly. So

>> as we stated at the start none of that was investment advice but thank you very much for joining us for this episode of Bits and Bips. We'll be back in one week to discuss more about how the worlds of crypto and macro are colliding. Until

then everyone and also Peter in particular, thank you very much for joining us. We really appreciate the

joining us. We really appreciate the thoughts today.

>> Thanks for having me on. I really

enjoyed it.

>> Thank you Peter. Thanks everybody.

Thanks.