Melt-up to 10,000 followed by a global bust next year and a systemic collapse next decade

Hey, welcome back to the program. And

joining us today is David Hunter, who is the chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, bringing over 50 years of investing experience. David, how are you?

Good, Christian. Thanks for having me on. It's uh great to meet you.

on. It's uh great to meet you.

Hey, likewise. I appreciate what you do and um looking forward to hearing your your latest thoughts as it relates to what's going on out there geopolitically, financially, uh even socially out there in the world. and at

some point would love to hear uh a bit about your story and um your observations. I mean from when you first

observations. I mean from when you first entered the the the industry, the world of finance to what you're seeing today and just kind of the zeitgeist. I mean

obviously there's been a lot of changes.

I feel like things have really accelerated since uh 2020 in our society. So uh I'm looking forward

society. So uh I'm looking forward and uh I'd love to start off just kind of getting your your current shakeddown so to speak of of what you're seeing out there in the world. Perhaps we could touch on the markets and kind of the

geopolitical arena.

Sure. Obviously, right now, so much of what's going on is all about Iran. Um,

you know, people want to I I certainly have, you know, with my following of 330,000 people on investors on uh

Twitter on X. Um, constantly have people talking about the market and relative to um technicals and things like that. And,

you know, Is it bottoming? Did it

bottom? You said it would bottom before this. What's going on? And frankly,

this. What's going on? And frankly,

right now, everything is kind of hostage to Iran. You know, you get you get news

to Iran. You know, you get you get news that something's breaking towards, you know, a deal or an agreement and the market rallies. You get more concerns

market rallies. You get more concerns that it's falling apart and the market goes down. And it's true of the stock

goes down. And it's true of the stock market, the metals market. Um, you know, oil goes up and down with that news. uh

the bond market's uh kind of worried about oil prices going up. So that

influences that. So really right now I think we're in, you know, kind of a consolidation period for the metals and the stock market. Although people are worried about a top here, I don't think

it's topping. Uh you know, it's just

it's topping. Uh you know, it's just kind of in a period of consolidation.

But, you know, whatever whatever we talk about, whatever we say, it really is going to be, you know, what happens uh in Iran, you know, obviously negotiations

look like according to Trump, they're getting closer. And then you get what

getting closer. And then you get what happened overnight and what happened, you know, with the shooting down of a helicopter, a US helicopter, etc. And

now it's the concerns are um you know our negotiations off. Does it look like we have to do a lot more uh military uh intervention before we get them to the

table and get them serious about negotiating? I don't know. I mean Trump

negotiating? I don't know. I mean Trump obviously has shown a lot of um um patience in terms of you know it'd be easy. There's lots of people out there

easy. There's lots of people out there saying, you know, just just go bomb the hell out of them and and they'll, you know, talk some sense to him that way.

And he's he's he doesn't want to commit US military to uh, you know, put them at risk where we lose lives. He also

doesn't want to blow up all the infrastructure over there and drive oil to $1500 or $200 a barrel. He's worried

about midterms. No question about it.

But more than anything else, I think he's and people misread him. He's he was true. He was saying this in in Ukraine.

true. He was saying this in in Ukraine.

He's saying you're, you know, he's not one that wants to, you know, he doesn't take life. He doesn't think, you know,

take life. He doesn't think, you know, sacrificing people's lives is something that's, you know, something he he wants to do. So, he's he's being, I think,

to do. So, he's he's being, I think, pretty um careful in executing this. And

meanwhile he's dealing with a regime that's pretty um you know really not very trustworthy obviously um for

whatever reason thinks they they have the upper hand when they don't.

[clears throat] Excuse me. Um they've

been you know their military's been um taken down. Uh their leadership's been

taken down. Uh their leadership's been taken down at least two two levels of it. and we've lost some of the recent

it. and we've lost some of the recent IRC GC leaders [clears throat] with the most recent Israel bombing. So, so I don't think

Israel bombing. So, so I don't think they're tremendously rational. Um, it's

hard to know, you know, where there's an awful lot of speculation on everybody's part about what's going on in negotiations. I don't think Trump makes

negotiations. I don't think Trump makes those statements lightly. Everybody say,

"Oh, you're just trying to manipulate the market." No, I think he's he's

the market." No, I think he's he's dealing with people behind the scenes that we don't know exactly what they're getting. They are kind of p, you know,

getting. They are kind of p, you know, yanking them around and and uh not necessarily being sincere in some of it.

So, but I don't think he's stupid. He

knows what they're doing and he's he's really trying to get a deal where the straight opens up where he still wants to remove the uranium, etc. So, not to

get bogged down and talk about Iran, but that is kind of the central thing here in the markets until that gets resolved. I think, you know, you're just

resolved. I think, you know, you're just in this kind of up and down period. That

being said, I don't think we're very far from some kind of a resolution one way or the other. Um, and and I think people just need to be a little bit patient

here. It's, you know, I realize we went

here. It's, you know, I realize we went through Iraq and Afghanistan and lost a lot of lives and and a lot of people were disabled as a result of that and

people have zero tolerance for that kind of thing again. But that's not what this is. And I think people just need to kind

is. And I think people just need to kind of um sit back and realize he's he's not going to get us into a long drawn out situation. He's trying his hardest not

situation. He's trying his hardest not to have to do military intervention again. Um, but he will and if Iran's if

again. Um, but he will and if Iran's if if the IRGC are misreading that, uh, they'll find out pretty quickly. He's he

will use it if he has to. He's just

hoping that he doesn't have to.

Yeah, it's [snorts] been interesting to see the um the the the polarization and the discourse go on pertaining to the Trump administration. And um, you know,

Trump administration. And um, you know, you have various sides. You know, one side is he's you know, playing kind of like a 5D chess sort of a thing. You

hear different commentators on that. And

on the other side, hey, this guy's completely controlled. There is a

completely controlled. There is a transnational uh click or something going on behind the scenes that is, you know, that is influencing world decisions. So, it's

been kind of interesting to bring on different guests, hear different viewpoints on that. Uh obviously, yeah, I I agree with you 100% with the this Iran war. Um a lot weighs on it or

Iran war. Um a lot weighs on it or excuse me, I should say so much is predicated on the on that. uh and no doubt uh what may arise also in the

Asian uh theater uh in that arena and of course the uh political climate over in uh Europe. Um I don't know I don't care

uh Europe. Um I don't know I don't care or excuse me I'm not sure if you'd like to touch on those theaters at all or or if that is something you'd like to kind of dive into. Uh

I pretty no I pretty much stick to US. I

I mean there's no doubt that obviously the the straight being closed is impacting Europe much more than it is US. uh it's impacting China. Um they've

US. uh it's impacting China. Um they've

drawn down inventories there and and seemingly at this point have handled it.

Um I am not in the camp that says, "Oh, we're, you know, we're days away from, you know, this thing inventories have been drawn down so much, oil's going to 150 in a heartbeat." I'm not in that

camp. I think, you know, we are

camp. I think, you know, we are benefiting. Obviously, we're exporting

benefiting. Obviously, we're exporting more oil as a result of this um to help dis, you know, replace some of that lost oil. Um but, you know, again, I don't

oil. Um but, you know, again, I don't think this is going to be long drawn out. I think we'll see some sort of

out. I think we'll see some sort of resolution in the next, you know, could be in days, it could be weeks, but I don't think

it's months and months. Um and I you know um I if it if it does really turn negative then yes you there is a scenario where oil can go up and it can

be problematic. That is not a high

be problematic. That is not a high probability view in my mind. It would

impact Europe more than us. It would

impact um China and Asia uh certainly Japan. Um

I tend to believe we are you know the optimistic scenario is a much more likely scenario here.

noted. And then as far as the uh financial arena goes, if you could kind of uh unpack your your general thesis on that and where you see things kind of shaking out currently.

Sure. I am the bull on the street. I

guess I've been talking about um a top of a 43 43 soon to be a 44 year cycle bull market that started back in August of 1982.

uh that was kind of the beginning of the whole disinflation uh phase that's carried on for four decades. Um and so I have talked about

decades. Um and so I have talked about and I've been my targets have been way above anybody on the street all along.

You know, particularly in starting in March of 2020, I got very bullish when everybody was bearish because of what was going on with the pandemic and shutting down the economy because of the

money printing, etc. I said, "This thing's going up, not down." um and you know had a pretty hefty target there, way above anybody else and have raised

it many times since October of 2022.

Um I think I had a um six and I had a 6,000 target at that point coming out of that. Obviously people at 3500 in

that. Obviously people at 3500 in October 2022 we're talking about going to 3,000 and maybe 2,000. So I was completely opposite and contrary. I've

raised it from 6,000 many times since then uh to seven to uh 7500 to um you know my most recent I just raised it

from 9500 to 10,000. Um so that may sound crazy and certainly did when I was talking 9500 I think the high on the

street was 76 or 700. Um you're starting to see some 8,000s now. Um but I'm you know I raised mine to 10,000. I think

we'll see that this year. Um we could see it as soon as um late this summer.

Um and again, a lot depends on Iran.

Obviously, if if Iran pushes this thing down further, uh it may stretch it out a little bit, but I think either way, we probably see it um in 2026.

Um and more likely, I think before the election and and maybe even before fall.

Um, so that's a a big run. NASDAQ, I

have a target of 36,000.

Just raised it from 32,000. So I'm going the other way from everybody that's trying to call top here and saying this thing's up on stilts. I do think it's

the end, as I say, of a 44year secular bull market. So I'm not bullish on the

bull market. So I'm not bullish on the other side of this but we are in and I think we still looks like we I thought we had started a final parabolic leg you

know the end of such a big um secular bull market typically would end in uh kind of a parabolic move and we've seen parabolics we know what that word means

because we've seen it in stocks like Nvidia and Micron um Eli Liy maybe some some of these stocks that have gone very vertical.

That's what I expect in the final stages of the stock market. So, you know, from here to, you know, from 73,400 to 10,000

in a matter of a few months would be a parabolic run. Um, we came out of the

parabolic run. Um, we came out of the reaction to Iran back in, you know,

April. We came out of that um down at 62

April. We came out of that um down at 62 or 300 ran to 7600.

Um and that looked like the beginning of that final parabolic leg. Obviously,

what's happened in the last week uh could could get you to question whether this is that parabolic. If we go down from here and correct, you know, back to

7,000 or something, then I'd say, yeah, this is it was kind of a false start in that parabolic, but there's another leg to follow. Um, if we turn here,

to follow. Um, if we turn here, basically on the monthlies, you're still in that parabolic. You know, this month is still higher than last month and you're, you know, very vertical last

three months. So, this could still be

three months. So, this could still be that final parabolic leg. The only

question is whether it, you know, corrects down below where we've been this, you know, yesterday, today, um, or whether we, um, you know, basically have

seen that pull back, gotten everybody looking south again and we turn back upward. Obviously, a lot depends on

upward. Obviously, a lot depends on what's going on in Iran right now, uh, as to whether that's the case. So,

either way, I'm not a trader. I don't,

you know, I don't spend a lot of time trying to guess what the very short term is. Either way, I'm very confident in

is. Either way, I'm very confident in saying we we aren't at the top and there's a, you know, a very substantial higher high ahead of us and I'm I'm

pretty comfortable with my 10,000 target. What you are seeing is some

target. What you are seeing is some rotation. Obviously, tech has had a a

rotation. Obviously, tech has had a a wonderful run um and has, you know, it's been just particularly in the semis, you

know, up up and just up and away. um you

reach a point where they get so far removed from you know 200 day moving average or or anything even though earnings are driving it it's a very fundamental driven story um they were

due for a little bit of a pullback um and what you're getting is rotation into some of the things which I've been talking about as areas where I think they will outperform in this last leg

and that's financials uh materials uh industrials have done pretty well all along but they're continuing to do well. Um, so you are getting and and small caps, the

Russell's doing pretty well. So you are seeing some rotation from previous leadership into some other things. I

don't think it's that we're all of a sudden going to see a topping out of tech or topping out of the NASDAQ. As I

said, my NASDAQ targets 36,000. What I

think it is is that we're going to have a broader joining, you know, joining in the party of some of these lagards and have actually a broader run into the top. That's unusual. Normally tops get

top. That's unusual. Normally tops get narrower and narrower. And obviously

we've seen that over the last couple years with the Mag 7 and then, you know, with semis that people thought this was, you know, kind of very narrowbased rally

and move. Um, but I've argued all along,

and move. Um, but I've argued all along, no, I think there's more that's contributing here than you realize, and it's actually going to broaden from there. And that's what I think we've

there. And that's what I think we've seen this week. It's the beginning of that.

Noted. And we also hear so much about this K-shaped economy that we hear at Nauseium about and uh just uh you know, many many people here domestically uh

for for lack of a of a better term getting crushed. and um if if you could

getting crushed. and um if if you could please perhaps share some insights that you're seeing as it relates to the consumer and and how that ties in with with everything.

Sure. Yeah. I've talked about for several years now a have and have not economy where the bottom half of our population is barely paycheck to

paycheck just getting by. So things like what's happened with oil and gasoline prices um they don't have luxury saying okay yeah it you know it's a little more

expensive out there but you know we go merily along because we have savings and we have plenty of income for those people they have to you know take from

Paul to pay Peter and there's um or Peter to pay Paul and there's just um you know they are just getting by you know there's some statistic I've seen

where 40% of the econom of the population if they were hit with a $400 unexpected bill, they're in trouble. You

know, they don't have the funds to cover that. That's scary in a country like the

that. That's scary in a country like the US. And it's been I mean, it's it's part

US. And it's been I mean, it's it's part of the reason that Donald Trump won back in 2016 and again uh this term is um he

more of a populist. um we gutted our our uh middle America particularly our industrial base with all the globalist approach that we took you know you know

I I um went to school back in the 70s late 60s and 70s and even back then it was you know this comparative economics

you you um you know the producing the the production should be done wherever it can be done cheapest in the world and and you'll benefit benefit if you if you

farm that out, but you have your, you know, your corporations in town. Yeah,

Wall Street's been a huge beneficiary of that. But what we're, you know, in

that. But what we're, you know, in hindsight, when you look back through all that, that's bogus. I mean, we've we've gutted, at least if you do it to the extremes, we've done it, we've

guttled gutted our industrial base.

We've we've gutted middle America. You

know, we've got lots of burned out cities that used to be industrial capitals um because people lost their jobs. They

were good paying union union jobs, you know, steel, autos, etc., and farm so much of that stuff out, particularly to

China, but elsewhere as well. Um and you know, they became drug centers basically. These people had no no

basically. These people had no no future. they they didn't know where, you

future. they they didn't know where, you know, they they couldn't replace what they had and it happened over, you know, many many several decades. And um so I

think we're we're beginning to recognize that certainly the, you know, the policies that are being put in place now are the beginning of trying to reshore and bring back some of that um

industrial base and bring capital into this country rather than farming it out.

Um but it's we've paid a big price in this country and it's kind of it's obviously been disguised by a stock market that's been on a wonderful run

for you know four decades or more. Um,

as I like to say, in 1982, I was running um, Text Ron's in-house equity pension fund. had just arrived there as a

fund. had just arrived there as a 30-year-old kid uh who had been in banks for eight years running, you know, portfolios and trust departments and things and took an opportunity that was

presented who won the search and had to fight a an investment committee that was made up of mostly mostly 60 year old and up you know the president's chairman and

and their group VPs um who um text been um um the CEO of Textron had been uh G. William Miller,

the former Fed chairman under Jimmy Carter, you know, before he went to the Fed, he was chairman of of Textron. And

in the mid70s when we had the 74 crash after the Nifty50 runup, um you know, it hit pension funds because all the

pensions back then were run by um mostly run out of New York City banks, the big money center banks. So they'd all go to lunches together and uh get all the same

ideas. So that's how the nifty50

ideas. So that's how the nifty50 happened is it was you know one decision stocks. You just buy and hold the 50

stocks. You just buy and hold the 50 largest corporations in this country that are all you know leaders of their industries IBM and General Motors and you know whatever else there was you

know the big companies. Um, and then the Nifty50 crash happened and the market went down more than 50%. Um, and well

more. Um, and G. William Miller said, "I

more. Um, and G. William Miller said, "I never want to face my, you know, employees again, particularly those uh, people that are close to retirement,

tell them that their pension assets are less than half what they were and they're on the verge of retirement." So

he pulled all the money out of the New York City banks, brought it in house.

And of course, Textron was the original conglomerate and started running the pension fund like a uh conglomerate, you know, private placements, fixed income,

and they had very little public equity.

Uh and then they missed the oil market in the late '7s. So he brought me in or I I you know did a search and I came in um cuz I realized they dropped from top

quartile during that time that they were running in house to 50th percentile as a pench manager because they didn't have equities during that big oil market. So

they thought they could bring somebody in that could manage kind of opportunistically have equities when they needed them to you know when there were markets like that. I was told by the street, "Stay away. They're, you

know, they hate equities. You're not

going to have a future there." And I went in and had top percentile numbers for five years running. And took them

from 10% equities to 50% equities. All

the while having the these guys all saying and Gen Miller had moved on by the time I got there, but his ghost was still there. And I heard at every

still there. And I heard at every meeting, Bill would never want us to do this. You know, Bill always said,

this. You know, Bill always said, "Beware of equities." And I kept saying we could do it conservatively and of course the numbers helped me. Um but um

I say all that to say that in 1982 when I really I came in in late ' 81 and and said keep powder dry. We're in a bare market. In August 1982, I went to a

market. In August 1982, I went to a meeting and said it's time, you know, I built a investment list, a you know, equity list and said it's time to start

buying the Dow Jones at that point was because that's in my mind was 780 or 782 was the bottom. We we are now over

50,000 on the Dow. So I it's a circular way of saying you know yes um the equity market has been a great thing for the

last you know four plus decades. Uh you

know we've we've had this great run and it's kind of disguised the fact that you know there's a lot of people in this country that have suffered through the policies of the last four decades and

it's you know it's hurt this country.

you you touched on your uh your early years a little bit um you know entering the the financial industry and I I'd love to kind of hear your your take on I I guess uh I mean obviously I wasn't

around during that time and most of the audience is is about 60 years of age give or take but I just think we got I think it's just kind of interesting to just kind of juxtapose you know let's say a few decades ago

relative to today you know we didn't there was no uh Instagram and and and social media and this kind you know, overt materialism and and what have you

and uh you know, kind of this this moral decay per se on the same level. What if

you care to provide any color on just kind of what you know just kind of juxtaposing uh the the the you know today and and you know the 70s etc. you know, kind of what you're what you're

Yeah.

Yeah. It's interesting. I mean, history does rhyme at times and and we had, you know, because of what happened in the mid70s and the, you know, up till that

point that was the worst bare market after the Great Depression. So, um 74 was pretty rough. Um housing got hit, etc. But, you know, we had the oil

embargo, so it drove oil up at that time to incredible levels. you know, gasoline went from very cheap to much more expensive. You had gas lines, etc.

expensive. You had gas lines, etc. um oil the oil what I remember is the late7s um because of oil more than anything but

basically because we monetized the embargo you know in in trying to make things less more palatable for the for the voter for the person for the

population you know the Fed printed money to monetize what was going on to provide the economy with with something to offset that rise in prices and that

just and particularly happened under Jimmy Carter's watch under G. William

Miller. He was a terrible Fed chairman, great chairman as a as a corporate uh person, real finance person, but as a he was not an economist and was not good in

his role as Fed chairman. um you know it was a period where we printed a lot of money and it jumpst started along with the oil price a beginning of a huge

inflation wave that took us to um basically T bills went over 20% inflation went up to 20% uh long bond I think went to 15% and that was the early

80s we had a double dip recession in the early 80s but it was at that point in time uh people think you know when we go through these rough

periods like we did in 20089 that it you know never was like that before. Those

were that was a tough period. You know

Paul Vulker had to come in and rescue things and he basically we had gone from a Keynesian approach for many years under the Fed uh with Fed chairman. Um

he basically came in because what happened with G. William Miller is he he thought he was keeping rates um you know rates were going up and he said well if

rates going up I'm kind of restrictive on the economy restrictive on monetary policy. No because rates would have gone

policy. No because rates would have gone up a lot faster if he wasn't printing money because of inflation. He was

actually pumping gasoline on the inflation fires. So Vulkar came in and

inflation fires. So Vulkar came in and changed it all and said rates are going to go wherever they go. I'm clamping

down on money. And that was a huge uh I was kind of a monetrist type anyway, but that really uh stood out to me and taught me very clearly. You know,

inflation is a monetary event as as uh Milton Freriedman's always said. And

people and and so, you know, there's a lot of people out there pay attention to rates. I pay attention to the Fed's

rates. I pay attention to the Fed's balance sheet and money more than rates.

Um but at any rate we had that big spike in in rates and spike in inflation and really starting in 1982 the peak in

rates was 1981 but starting in 1982 coming out of the you know by the late ' 82 coming out of the recession double

tip recession 80 to 81 and then 82 we dip back in um was really the beginning of a long period where the Fed

said we can't take inflation from you know 20% to zero in a hurry but they were um they embarked on a long process of ratcheting down inflation over many

years first under Vulkar then under Greenspan and then since and that that long period of taking rates down from

you know 15% ultimately 04 on the 10-year back in 2021 or 2020 20 I guess um that long period

of taking rates down flipped um PE multiples. So in 1982 PE multiples

multiples. So in 1982 PE multiples started at single digits. Um in in August 1982 they were probably six or

seven. Um by the time you know now we're

seven. Um by the time you know now we're talking about you know 20 and above that is the reciprocal you know inverse of what rates do. If rates go down,

multiples market multiple goes up and multiples go up. Um if rates go up, the multiples get compressed. And so we've had this long period that's been very

good for financial assets and very good for the stock market. Um and we've had, you know, some rough spots in there.

Certainly, you know, 20089.

um even um you know after the big tech runup in 2000 um we had a big bare market but but it's been a trend that's

been up up and away for you know 40 plus years and I think we're just coming to the end of that and a lot of that reason is because

we're I think we're um we're going to have one more I'm somewhat contrary I'm the contrary and I'm somewhat contrary on on bond bonds are probably very contrary at this point

where I think we're going to have one more lower low on rates. So if the 10-year got down to 04, I'm saying the

10-year next year or in the next 12 to 18 months can get down to zero. And

that's because I think we're going to see deflation, not inflation, because of a a global bust. Um, and so, um, I think it'll be the last harrah in the in the

bond market. In other words, the stock

bond market. In other words, the stock market's approaching a secular top. The

bond market's approaching a secular top.

Uh, bond market started in 1981, stock market 1982.

Um, the secular bull markets. And I

think they both top out in the next couple years. The stock market this year

couple years. The stock market this year and and bonds probably the end of next year. And then uh from there I think we

year. And then uh from there I think we start another huge long inflation cycle.

Probably much quicker. Uh inflation

cycles are quick. Disinflation cycles

are long because it takes a long time to wind out the inflation. inflation

probably will go from deflation in the bust at the end of next year, early 2028, um to

um hyperinflation or certainly back above the inflation of the early 80s, meaning 20% plus, maybe 25%

by the sometime in the early 2030s, so 2032 or three. Um and it will be because a global bust means not the stock market

but the econ I say the bust refers to the economy and the financial system. Um

and the bare market that the company's at refers to the the stock market. So I

think we could see um a global bust not just US centered but global that's bigger than 20089.

Um and that's why I call it a bust.

20089 was close to a bus but got pulled back from the cliff. I think this time we go over the cliff. The response to that and no fed no central bank banker

today if you ask them would agree with me on this. They'd say that that's not happening. That will never happen again.

happening. That will never happen again.

We're not going to repeat what we did after 20089. But my belief is it will

after 20089. But my belief is it will they'll they'll be slow in responding.

But ultimately it will take potentially 20 trillion or more from the Fed in new QE. So a Fed balance sheet that will

QE. So a Fed balance sheet that will grow to 30 trillion or more to respond to a freef falling economy and financial

system. Um and it's again every central

system. Um and it's again every central bank will be doing similar so proportionally similar. So you could see

proportionally similar. So you could see 50 trillion in new money around the world, maybe more, in response to a bust.

And you know, the reason they say they would never go back there is because everybody knows zero interest rate policy and pumping money is, you know,

has has consequences. And the biggest consequence of that is inflation. And I

think it's going to drive inflation through the ceiling. But when you're faced with a freef falling system, you know, we almost got that in 2008 when

the commercial paper market froze and, you know, the rumor was G capital Capital was going under and, you know, the the auto credit companies weren't

going to make it, etc. They they pulled it back from the brink by printing money. You know, they finally they woke

money. You know, they finally they woke up and realized they had to do something quick. Um, and there were some fiscal

quick. Um, and there were some fiscal measures, too. Um, so that time we

measures, too. Um, so that time we pulled us back from the cliff. This time

around because of the delay and because it's we're so much more leveraged than that time, I think we go over that cliff and it's going to be deer in headlights

time where every policy maker, every central banker is going to go, "Oh my god." And there's only one thing that

god." And there's only one thing that can respond quick enough to save a system that's in freefall and that's money. So you will see money and then

money. So you will see money and then you know they'll pour money in. and it

won't be enough. They'll pour more money and it won't be enough. It'll take them several months to stabilize a system and get to a right size policy. Right size

for that moment, not right size for the long-term effects that are going to follow, but the the inflation effects are, you know, lagged by a couple years.

You know, you'll start to see the inflation build back up from a deflation. So from a negative inflation,

deflation. So from a negative inflation, it'll take a couple years to get to even mid single digit inflation and then from there another two or three years you

could be double digits on the way to high double digits. Um but you know it takes time. So they're they're going to

takes time. So they're they're going to worry about what's in front of them first and uh and then you know find out the after effects later. Um so that's

kind of my my overall picture. Um, and

we're we're still in a bull market.

There's still, you know, big upside short term, but we're getting mighty close to where I think we're going to see something we haven't seen in our lifetimes.

You hear a lot about the uh potential for uh great civil unrest? Um, what's

your temperature as it relates to that here domestically?

Yeah, certainly. Yeah, I mean I um you know I'll I'll stay away from politics to some degree, but it's hard to avoid it. You know, we we have frankly um

it. You know, we we have frankly um policies that are very hard to understand and rationalize in other in any other way than they're deliberate.

Um in terms of uh you know, no um letting people out with no bail or or no prison time and you know, constantly

returning people to the street that are repeat offenders. uh encouraging, you

repeat offenders. uh encouraging, you know, violent protests and encouraging things, opening borders and letting in the worst of the worst and then turning a blinds eye to what what that's doing

to the population. You know, all those things are I think themes I can I can't conclude anything else but that they're deliberate and I think they are part of

a a bigger global effort um that's aimed at um you know anti- capitalism, anti-

uh democracy um anti-conservatism um and and you know we're part of I think part of a a greater new world order um you know the Davos post thing

and and call Schwab and all of that. It

fits into that. Um and and I think it basically, you know, it started under a previous president who basically was very honest about wanting to take

the US down several pegs as a president saying we're, you know, we can't be the the king of the world. You know, we can't be the top of the world. We need

to, you know, we the the world will rise if we come down. and policies have accelerated from that point. And I'm

talking about Obama obviously, but but um it's, you know, it's been really a a

an accelerated process in my opinion of that deliberate effort ever since and and is, you know, is why I think uh

Donald Trump gets such hatred out there.

And there's a lot of people in the middle who don't understand what you know the propaganda that's being fed to them um because of that with with that

is the the motive the deliberate motive um and you know certainly I I enough people woke up you know the so-called

MAGA movement to say this is not what we want for our country or for our you know our future and but they're fighting tremendous odds against this other

effort. So, it's it's not just, you

effort. So, it's it's not just, you know, you keep hearing pundits want to talk about, you know, we need to all get along again and, you know, it's both

sides are just, you know, the rhetoric's just creating this. No, this goes way beyond that.

Yeah. I I I lean more I I've had um you know, I know mainly we're talking about the financial markets and and we've touched on geopolitics on this episode. I've I've gone down just out of

episode. I've I've gone down just out of genuine curiosity, you know, who's running the show and just hearing different viewpoints and uh you know, talking to whistleblowers I've spoken to

and it is interesting how you have different mental models that that people have. I've had on different guests and

have. I've had on different guests and and they may not agree on all these things, but there are certain themes that do I have observed that do perminate their their uh their you know,

thought process, so to speak. And you

know, you touched on kind of like a you know, I know it sounds uh uh cheesy or corny to some, but kind of this this new world, you know, order, so to speak. I

there's something there. Uh certainly.

And I think you I think you have kind of like a shadow government. I think you have you have um you know, click a group, what have you. Everyone's got

it's this group or that group, what have you. There's something there behind the

you. There's something there behind the scenes that is that is really running the show. And obviously I don't know

the show. And obviously I don't know most people, you know, we're just speculating. We're trying to work with

speculating. We're trying to work with the best at what we have. But um it's it is interesting to see the volatility really ramp up and so much change going on. Um I agree with you in terms of, you

on. Um I agree with you in terms of, you know, we're long overdue for, you know, economic uh major challenges. But

overall, I'm I'm pretty optimistic that, you know, we're going to have to figure out a way to get through whatever whatever whatever's thrown our way, so to speak, as corny as that sounds. And

um it's just uh it's very interesting.

It's a very interesting period. Um I

wasn't around obviously in the 70s or 60s, but it makes me think of what I have heard or read about that period in terms of volatility, social unrest. So

um yeah.

Yeah. It's it's interesting because I did grow up obviously in the 60s and and 70s and um you know was on college campus during Kent State and during you

know the the baby boomers kind of uh taking over society. Um and I was not you know I wasn't way right but I wasn't

way left either. I was kind of in the middle at that point in my life. And but

you know there was SDS which students for democratic society. It was a communistdriven group and that's their whole motivation

was obviously back then you know these are 181 1920 21 22 23 year olds um and we were the you know the rat going

through the snake and became kind of the the dictators of society all the way through you know back then in terms of change anti- Vietnam etc and then later

on you know accumulating assets later on buying houses and you know building our our homesteads and then after that when that got done beginning to plan for

retirement by accumulating assets in the 80s 90s and beyond where we've seen the 401k move in the you know um IRA etc and all the money you know what the

financial industry has become that's a lot of that 40-year bull market um so the so the baby boomers have been a huge part of this but if you go back to you

know those 60s and 70s they they decided then to become big influencers in in the country and probably in the world if you

take it to other countries you know we need to get into the institutions where we can shape minds they basically became

um the um [clears throat] educators they went into the schools and and started pushing more leftist uh anti- capitalist

type um ideas. They they went into the churches where they had captive audiences every Sunday and they became the the church leader, you know, the the

ministers and the pastors, the priests, etc. And and you you fast forward to where we are now and that's I mean it's

true both in education is true all the way up through uh both public education up through college. uh and beyond is

what's true now is they dominate thought in those important kind of formative places. Uh and as a result,

formative places. Uh and as a result, it's really uh you know, it's very hard um because there's a big part of our population that doesn't really

understand civics, doesn't really understand uh can't see through some of that propaganda because they've they've heard it from, you know, very young ages

or been shaped uh by it from very young ages. And as a result, you know, it's a

ages. And as a result, you know, it's a real hard push back. I mean, I think, you know, Donald Trump has his flaws.

Donald Trump isn't perfect by any means, but what he does have is he he he does see clearly that, you know, what he's up against and he

does have a backbone to call it out and to be politically non-correct in saying things. And I think that's why he got

things. And I think that's why he got such following. And I I stuck with him

such following. And I I stuck with him through the 2020 period when people say, "Oh, we don't want him back. He can't

win again." and you know, even if he was the right person and he can't win a guy, I said, "Yes, he can because he's struck such a nerve." And it's not really that he struck the nerve, but he's he's the

one that's willing to stand up and and take that forward. And sure enough, obviously, he was able to to do it again. And but it's so hard because

again. And but it's so hard because there is, you know, the media, I mentioned, you know, um churches and education. The one I forgot to mention

education. The one I forgot to mention is media. I mean they they now are you

is media. I mean they they now are you know 95% of the media uh of the mainstream media not not alternative media. That is the one thing that's you

media. That is the one thing that's you know helped us but um and I hate to make this all political but it's so it's so important for people to wake up and

realize it's not it's it's not what you're being presented with. It's not

two sides doing the same thing and we need to just all get along. there's

really a a um concerted effort to transform this country into something that you are not going to like.

Yeah. you know, I uh um I I I was a I had supported Trump on, you know, on on both elections there and um I think he

galvanized a lot of people uh with with with kind of, you know, an anti-established narrative that he's not part of this, you know, WF fill in the blank, you know, um uh uh um you know,

group so to speak. U I I have candidly and and and I and I understand I'm just observing it from my viewpoint here where I'm in the world. So, I don't purport to have all the answers, but I I

I have wrestled and um been challenged with the these these constant foreign involvements that have gone on with this administration, some of the events and

in my estimations, atrocities that have gone over overseas, particularly in the Middle East, and the expansion of the of the uh of the uh deficit and you know,

just increasing size of bureaucracy in some of these companies. So, but I I try and keep an open mind and I I love to hear people's different viewpoints on things and obviously I want what's best

for our country. I think uh you know a lot of the infrastructure here needs to be addressed you know four hours south of me in LA. Um some you know you've got uh you know you look at the roads you

look at the homelessness the the drugs and some of these also other other major cities around the around the the country. So obviously I want what's

country. So obviously I want what's what's what's best for us. Um, and uh, let me let me just respond quickly to that because I'm sure we don't want to spend all our time on this.

No, sure. Here. I I I like this. Yeah.

But I I do think that um because of what happened uh post 911 and you know we all wanted to go in

there and get the terrorists and get you know it was such shock to our system. We

got bogged down in Iraq and and it became unfortunately we had you know Reagan had done a good job of transforming the military after Vietnam

because Viet post Vietnam we were a mess and you know our military decayed and you know there was but he came in and rebuilt it not just the military but the

attitude and and how professional you know need to be a professional army again and um and we've you know We carried forward from there and um

unfortunately in Iraq we kind of went back to where we let the politicians conduct the war. If we had executed early on we could have probably you know um

probably could have finished it in you know two or three years or less maybe maybe less uh and moved on. But it was always you know politicians in the way.

So oh you can't do that don't do that.

And so we got bogged down for, you know, a long time. A lot of people died. Uh, a

lot of our, you know, young people were disabled as a result of that. It was a horrible, horribly executed thing. Um,

we got, you know, some of it was on false premises apparently. And then

Afghanistan, same story. And we exited that terribly. There is no tolerance in

that terribly. There is no tolerance in our country for any kind of military skirmish. Now it's like, you know, we

skirmish. Now it's like, you know, we want to we want to be isolationist. We

want to avoid any kind and that's just not realistic when you know when you have people on all sides trying to take you down and and particularly from

within but also outside. Uh and and so I think what Trump did here was correct, but he's he's facing a population that

really didn't want it, you know, and and what he did, I think, in Venezuela, they executed perfectly and and you know, I think was necessary. We were we were I

think we were one election away from losing this country if Trump wasn't in.

we were moving very far towards you know checkmate in terms of what that that other agenda is and [clears throat] you know the basically new world order in my

opinion is is code for communism you know basically it's China Russia running the show um with you know all these

other sellouts from Europe and elsewhere that are part of that new world order is basically moving you to a one world government that is what is a one world government other than, you know,

communism pretty much. And um we were we were very close to if if Trump hadn't won, probably checkmate. So what he's doing here systematically is trying to

clean up all those things that were really pushing us very close to having lost this, you know, lost this battle.

And and I think South America was a big part of that. Venezuela is one step in that. We've got a lot of South America

that. We've got a lot of South America coming back to at least if not being in our corner at least uh being reasonable with us again rather than you know

working with China and everything. Um so

I think people are naive if they think we can just kind of isolate ourselves from the world and say we're not you know there's no threat to us. There's

huge threats out there. Iran being one of them that I think he had to do. You

know, to be 90 days into this and be talking like, you know, it's a it's a disaster. And, you know, we've lost uh

disaster. And, you know, we've lost uh not very many people and those were all in the first week of it pretty much. Um

and he's you know, we took out their navy and their air force and we're you know, we're dealing with Yeah. There's a

lot of drones and and things that we we But you're seeing him again not being a wararmonger, not going in and saying, "Yeah, let's just blow them to smitherines." He's really trying he

smitherines." He's really trying he wants he wants peace in the world. He

wants peace in the Middle East. He wants

the Iranian people to have their country back. Um and he's he's not out there

back. Um and he's he's not out there adventuring out there trying to take land and trying to be the policeman for the world. Just the opposite. He cleaned

the world. Just the opposite. He cleaned

up several conflicts in the world. Um,

and I I just think what we also have going on is not only what I talked about in terms of the left here in this country, I think there's an awful lot of

stuff coming in from Russia and China, etc. Um, that is confusing everything so much that for all of us it's like what

do you believe? You know, you've got the woke right now with with Tucker and Candace and Megan and all those people

out there pushing a a very anti-Israel thing. And we've got everybody assuming

thing. And we've got everybody assuming that Israel is the big bad wolf in this.

And I think a lot of this coming from overseas, you know, our enemies saying we can confuse them to hell so that they don't know which way and you know who to believe and which end is up. And it

makes it very hard to have a country united in anything anymore. So I think we, you know, and I I don't mean to say I know all this stuff or I know have all the answers of who's right and wrong,

but I think that's a lot of what's going on in our country. And it's, you know, we're I think we're lucky to have an administration that is pretty clearminded in what they're trying to

accomplish. I don't like all the ways

accomplish. I don't like all the ways they go about it. I don't like the government owning pieces of companies. I

don't like, you know, moving away from free markets. But again, under the guise

free markets. But again, under the guise of free markets, we've we've really gutted this country over the last 40 years. And it takes some of this stuff

years. And it takes some of this stuff to try to build it back. Even tariffs, I think there was a purpose there. And

unfortunately, the Supreme Court kind of stopped it. But um so anyway, kind of

stopped it. But um so anyway, kind of long-winded, but you know, that was that's where I come from anyway.

Yeah. you know, and I'll just in in in response to that, um, I I personally lean more towards it. You have you you you you have a transnational click, and

I don't think it is a group that you hear people talk about adnauseium. I

know I know you we you know, you know what I'm getting at, so to speak. I

think you have um you know various actors or groups and I think some of these these groups are uh involved in as I've shared with other guests tuning in

they're they're involved involved in um some uh uh you know dark occult practices and and I know some of the stuff seems so out there in and in La La

Land to some people tuning in. Um, but I I I do think there is something there and uh I think a lot of people I think the world stage more or less is kind of

like Kabuki Japanese theater in a sense and I think you have people that are may perhaps unaware that they're being manipulated or influenced. I mean

perhaps you know Yeah. And and and I and I'm just throwing this out there just um for the sake of throwing perhaps Trump is genuinely trying I'm I'm obviously taking the stance of one viewpoint here

that Trump is perhaps trying to improve things and do this and do that but maybe there's influence from other for you know other forces. I'm not just talking about the one group everyone talks about adnauseium other actors other elements

out there. So it it is it is interesting

out there. So it it is it is interesting to just you know again hear it all but I I I do feel as though and I agree with you on the new world order thing. I do

think there is a push for that. You've

seen groups throughout history going back hundreds of years trying to take control of the financial system and of different arenas and things. So um yeah I mean ultimately I'm just working with

with with what I know and um and uh one taking you back to the market.

Yeah. Yeah. because I do think that's that is a clarifying part of this is I I know there are people out there thinking the market's just one big

manipulation. It's it's not that. It's

manipulation. It's it's not that. It's

what what I don't a lot of a lot of conspiracy theories come out of lack of understanding of things and you know having been in this for 53 years um and

having you know having kind of a macro approach to when I was a pension manager and and since with um you know macro strategy

um my view is that we have I've watched cycle to cycle to cycle you know we've had many economic cycles that AC are accompanied by market cycles um since

since I entered in 73 and I've had them obviously going back to the great depression starting this whole what I call super cycle which is the period the long cycle between two depressions I

think the great depression obviously the last one being 1930s the next depression being I think the 20 you know the mid 2030s um so this bust I'm talking about

is not a depression it's kind of the precursor of what will the re response to that will then get us this high inflation that will ultimately collapse the system and and you'll have something

worse than the great depression back you know out 10 years from now. Um so but the point is that a lot of what is

happening in terms of our you know markets now and and cycles or inflation

and etc interest rates um if you go back and understand we've had every every successive cycle out of the great depression pretty much we've had you

know it starts out coming out of a a deep depression. And so you have a lot

deep depression. And so you have a lot of pent-up demand. You know, you have a lot of capacity because you're coming out of the hole and you know, you don't you have deflation. So you're coming out

of that. But each successive uh cycle

of that. But each successive uh cycle you had higher excesses uh and higher imbalances requiring you know more cranking down by the Fed to

respond to those excesses at the end of the cycle leading to you know a recession and then back up again with more input to get you out of the recession. So it's it's like a buggy

recession. So it's it's like a buggy whip where you just get bigger uh volatility with each cycle. Starts out

kind of relatively mild. We're now at the end of that super cycle or in the last decade of that super cycle where the volatility is so much more extreme, the the imbalance is so much more

extreme, the excess is more extreme that it takes more to deal with them. And

that's where you get to the point where you're just out of control. So we, you know, we had, uh, as I like to remind people, in in October 2008 going into

the, you know, the great recession, um, our Fed balance sheet was 875 billion.

That was the largest it had ever been going back to 1913 in its origins.

We are now, you know, we got up to 9 trillion in the pandemic when we pumped 5 trillion in in a short in a, you know, 18-month period to deal with the

pandemic. Um, we pumped 3 some odd 3.2

pandemic. Um, we pumped 3 some odd 3.2 trillion, I think, or 3 some odd trillion in the post 20089 period and then, you know, 5 trillion on top of

that. So, we up to nine. We've backed it

that. So, we up to nine. We've backed it down to 6.4. We're now probably 6.6 or 7. Um, and I'm saying we're going to be

7. Um, and I'm saying we're going to be 30 plus. The reason is because of that

30 plus. The reason is because of that buggy web. You know, you just now the

buggy web. You know, you just now the the leverage we have in the system today, which I define as um the debt on

is the leverage on the economy and the financial system and derivatives are leverage on the markets are. So debt and derivatives both combined. You know, the

debt is 3330 trillion plus in global debt. Now, you know, we know we're

debt. Now, you know, we know we're somewhere near 40 trillion in government debt. Uh a lot more than that when you

debt. Uh a lot more than that when you look at unfunded liabilities, etc. Um we've got, you know, derivatives through the roof. The leverage today is so far

the roof. The leverage today is so far beyond 20089, which is what brought us almost brought us down in 2008. We're

way beyond that here and abroad.

Um, a lot of it sovereign do it, but a lot of it is not. Um, and that's my thesis as to why we're going to have this global bust is because, you know, leverage works on the way up, it

enhances everything on the way up. It

looks great. When when the music stops and you start rolling over, that leverage takes you down fast and deep.

And so, that's why I think we'll have a very fast, you know, 12 to 18 month bust. Um, that will then the response to

bust. Um, that will then the response to that is what gets us to that final.

There is a recovery after the bust but it's a very inflationary very excess imbalance leads us to excesses and imbalances are way beyond our ability to

deal with just think of the inflation in interest rates if we have debt will probably if three I like to use the global debt number just because it's a

you know it's a number it's been cited if we have 330 trillion in global debt now my guesses will probably close to 500 trillion coming,

you know, in the period after the bust, the response to the bust and then what happens after that. So, you know, we're ramping this thing up at and, you know, at such incredible paces, you know, that

too is volatile. Um, so, you know, debt's going to be even way debt and drugs is going to be way beyond even going into this bust. You're going to

have all that debt. So even bigger government situation, you know, finance to finance deficit to finance, you're going to be going into that, but with

with all that money printed with a lag of a few years, you're going to be dealing with double digit inflation on the way to 20% inflation. Uh 20 probably 25% inflation in this country. That

means the long bond is probably going to be approaching 20% and the Treasury bill is probably approaching 25%.

We can't we can't service our debt at 5%.

There's zero way. There's no there's no equation to solve that that problem. If

we have anything close to what I'm describing postbust that leads to a collapse and again it's not just the US it will happen all around the world that leads to a

collapse of the system we've known um post depression and before post you know 1930s and before we we will see a collapse of the system I think in the

mid30s so what comes out of that who knows you know could be totalitarianism you know I know the Austrians would like to believe we're going to, you know, they think it's going to happen much sooner. They think this bust is the

sooner. They think this bust is the collapse. But, um, because of the

collapse. But, um, because of the printing press, it's not this cycle, it's next cycle. But, but when you have high inflation, when you have hyperinflation, printing press is out of

business. You may as well just destroy

business. You may as well just destroy it because it you can't print money just like you can't if if you have a fire hose with gasoline, you can't pour that

on a forest fire, you can't print money onto a hyperinflationary situation. So,

so we'll lose our printing press and that's when the music stops and the Ponzi scheme that's been in place for 80, 90 years comes crashing down. So, so

you know, we can talk about all the politics and all the, you know, new world order and what the left's doing or the right's doing. Ultimately, I think

this thing is inevitably in its last stages and it's been mismanaged. No

question. Some of it may just be human nature and cycle to cycle just building up and not realizing um you know it's um condrad wave whatever you want to call

it but some of it we've certainly mismanaged and that's that's another problem we have is I see it you know being on X all the time

and I hadn't you know not being on X I never had really realized it but there's a generation that hates the boomers and holds them responsible for the fact that they can't buy houses and they can't

afford to, you know, they're we're we're at a point where the standard of living is dropping for the younger generation for a lot of them and they hold the

boomers responsible and they are to some extent responsible. Not all all of it is

extent responsible. Not all all of it is that, but so you hear, you know, boomer is a derogatory term, right? Um we we do have, you know, we have so many things

going on in our society today. Uh, and

it's all kind of coming to a head.

Yeah. I'm not a I'm not a a fan of of when people uh denigrate the whole boomer group. I mean, obviously you've

boomer group. I mean, obviously you've had certain people just like in every generation responsible for the the challenges in in society, but I think just lumping whole group is is is

erroneous. Um, wow. We covered a lot of

erroneous. Um, wow. We covered a lot of we covered a lot of terrain here today, David. I I appreciate it. Um, it was

David. I I appreciate it. Um, it was interesting to hear your financial take on it. Um, I uh have a different

on it. Um, I uh have a different viewpoint on on on on some of the politics there, but I always welcome and appreciate different viewpoints and I always want to hear I don't want to be too much in an echo chamber. I need to

hear different I need to hear different different takes on things. So, um, but I but I enjoyed it and I and I'd love to uh continue to dialogue here at some point later on. Um, and uh and I guess

I'd really love to even do a deep dive at some point, maybe another episode just kind of juxtaposing then and now. I

I think uh I think it's so fascinating especially for some members of the audience who who are millennials. Um

right we only see the world from which we've we've seen it and I think society's collective memory only really goes back maybe 80 90 years and then beyond that it's just in in the in the history book so to speak. And I see I

see a lot because I live through the early 80s and you have a lot of you know the newer strategists and economists etc on the street traders particularly who

the only knowledge they have is in looking at um something in the books or charts or what have you and I I see a lot of things that don't really

represent what really went on there. you

know, they're trying to compare periods of it obviously and rightfully so, but it's it's different when you live it than when you read about it sometimes.

You know, it's not always captured there.

Absolutely. And uh any any uh any books, quotes or or literature that you'd like to share? And also, how can people learn

to share? And also, how can people learn more about you, Dave? David?

Sure. Um, I will throw out one uh just for those that are newer to investment or still kind of trying to figure out the world of investments. Um, which a lot of people are even if they're not

newer to it. But I've been a a careerlong contrarian. I think I'm

careerlong contrarian. I think I'm probably born contrarian to some extent.

Um, so I'm very comfortable being opposites to the crowd, you know, and uh, as I say, at major bottoms, major tops, I may be the only one saying something and most people want to be

with the crowd, so they're not comfortable with that. But I'm very comfortable when nobody agrees with me.

So, um, I do push a book called uh, contrarian investment strategies by a guy named David Dreamman. um he was a

money manager on the street and um noted um columnist I think in Forbes um but you know was a contrarian very much so I it's funny because I came in in 73 I was

kind of naturally drawn to contrarian thought before I ever saw his book I think his first issue first edition of this book came out in 1977 and I picked

it up then and read it very easy read for me and I thought it very you know when I read it wasn't necessarily changing my views. It

kind of spoke to what my views were, but you know, we're sympatico, so I like liked it. I have um recommend to many

liked it. I have um recommend to many many people since it's now, you know, I don't I think the last edition may have

been in 1990 or 90 some odd. Um so it's been out a long time, but contrary investment strategies. Um and I'd like

investment strategies. Um and I'd like people to read it. um to the basic message to get out of that is how how important a role in uh investor

psychology plays in markets and investing. Um you know, you kind of have

investing. Um you know, you kind of have to turn things around that you're you're oftenimes most bullish at a top and most bearish at a bottom. And if you can

reverse that as an investor, you'll do far better. Um, and so I kind of think

far better. Um, and so I kind of think it's it's what I think is one of the most important lessons to learn as you start out in investing.

Awesome. Well, David, uh, really appreciate you making the time today.

Thank Thank you.

Let me let me just say you can find me on You had asked me and I forgot. Um,

you can find me on on X every day. Um, I

um typically reply to comments and questions. I don't put out many uh

questions. I don't put out many uh initial um uh posts because um I get too many responses and I can't keep up because I I do try to respond to

people. Not always but a lot. So my

people. Not always but a lot. So my

communication are mostly through replies. Uh so if you're setting if you

replies. Uh so if you're setting if you do uh come on to my feed um just make sure settings are set for to see replies because I have people who follow me for

a long time and they'll say, "Gee, where have you been?" I go, I posted 24 times yesterday. I posted, you know, a dozen

yesterday. I posted, you know, a dozen times a day before that. You're you're

not set up to see replies, I guess. Um

uh so I'm there and I also put out a quarterly um macro letter uh that is by subscription that if people do have an

interest can, um you know, Twitter or X has changed their direct message to a chat situation. It's

not nearly as good as it used to be, but um if you if you message me through that, I'll provide details of the letter if you're interested.

Notable. Uh David, um really enjoyed the conversation today and be well and and thank you again for your time. Yeah,

thanks Christian.