MI Market Briefing: March 2026

Welcome everybody to the um MI market briefing. I think Fred, what I'll go

briefing. I think Fred, what I'll go ahead and do is is just start with a basic clean chart, some simple basic TA, and then we'll start layering our stuff

into it to give it more context. Sound

good?

>> All right. So, let me go ahead and share a screen here. And this is something I shared recently in one of my live streams. And so if you missed that, I guess you

you're going to get a treat here now. So

this obviously is our kind of our trend since back in in December of 2018. You

can see where price has interacted with the with the trend line here. This was

our COVID crash. So a bit of an anomaly here. But the reason I don't draw this

here. But the reason I don't draw this line from here to here is I do this actually on a on a line chart so I can, you know, kind of eliminate those wicks.

So there's the trend. And as you can see, we've came we've come awfully close to touching this line but haven't done so yet. And so now I want to start

so yet. And so now I want to start introducing layers. This is obviously,

introducing layers. This is obviously, you know, this is probably the most bullish look of the market you're going to see right now because I mean this is

compelling, right? We're we're close to

compelling, right? We're we're close to the trend line right now. It sits at about 61 uh if we were to touch it right

now and so or you know, yeah, just around 61. And so now I want to show you

around 61. And so now I want to show you where the you know where the resistance level is and form a bit of a a structure right. So

obviously at the very basic level a breakout or at least an attempt of a breakout would look something like uh clearing that 87k level uh excuse me

that 83k level and breakdown gets us down here below uh you know the 60k range. And obviously there are some

range. And obviously there are some things in there that we like to see like our moving averages that would also help define some of those levels.

Specifically the 200E moving average which sits down here between 58 and 59K.

That's been a long- aaited target since we since we got down into this range.

It's still holding for for a while. So,

so just in in the bare really the bare basics, if we if we were to just chop through this structure uh for

for a while longer, and we can, we absolutely can, right? The market is going to be forced to either uh break out or break down from this structure

sometime before uh mid June. And that would be consistent with it. It could it could happen today, right? But it could also

take a while. And the fact that we're chopping in this range makes a lot of sense to me because we spent so much time here historically, right? Remember

this was the 2021 top. 69K was the 2021 top. And we we consolidated here for

top. And we we consolidated here for eight months from the from from when we first kind of double topped here to uh

really through the election cycle and then on election day and this is not this is not this is not a random coincidence in my mind. Election day the

Trump pump began right here and boom that's history. Of course, it's now been

that's history. Of course, it's now been retraced and we're looking at what's the next what's the next move uh for Bitcoin. And because we have all of this

Bitcoin. And because we have all of this structure here, that shows me that there's lots of strength at this level depending on where we are at any given moment. Sometimes it's resistance,

moment. Sometimes it's resistance, sometimes it's it's support, but this is really the tight range that uh that we're living in uh right now. And you

know, while this while this long trend line looks looks bullish, uh there's certainly a lot of bearish influence in here, uh or or fingerprints, I should

say, and none more glaringly obvious to me than this death cross that just occurred, just formed. And if you're asking, well, how come price is going up with a death cross? It happens

sometimes. In fact, a lot of times we'll see a fake out. we'll see price rallying into those death crosses and and then we we get that fake out and then we get a

breakdown. So, this doesn't have to play

breakdown. So, this doesn't have to play out exactly as it did in 2022. We've

referenced that a bunch o over the past month or so, but uh there's certainly some things that are that are very interesting here. And so now I want to

interesting here. And so now I want to bring in some additional layers uh starting with our timecape levels. And I

think that time one of the cool things about time scapes is that it is uh aside from being very very simple TA you don't have to be a technical analyst to figure

it out. You can see how this is kind of

it out. You can see how this is kind of like this is if this structure was a house this is the framing uh within the house. So these these levels are

house. So these these levels are structural support and resistance levels that you need to be paying attention to and and you can see with with some some

pretty good consistency how these levels tend to be respected and they're respected until they're not right and then you get a break up or a breakdown.

And so at the moment this is being respected. I do think that this death

respected. I do think that this death cross could come in soon. You know could present itself here. I mean it's already presented itself but it could start to develop in terms of price action here

very very soon. Obviously the resistance very strong and and we see that you know in fire charts of the fact that these icebergs keep appearing around that

timecape level 713 and you can see the the order flow is is supporting that as well. One other thing I want to share

well. One other thing I want to share with you before I hand this to Fred and and climb into the dashboard a little bit deeper and and this plays into the context of of everything that I've

shared here is trend precognition.

And trend precognition is showing us that on the higher time frame, specifically the monthly candle, we we at the moment have a long signal. And

I'm going to let me just take time scapes out to clean this up a little bit. And so this number one is still a

bit. And so this number one is still a tentative signal. It could be

tentative signal. It could be invalidated. Uh but this indicates that

invalidated. Uh but this indicates that price is not necessarily and and I want to make this clear to you guys. A signal

trend precognition signaling in this case a long does not necessarily mean that price is going to make a new high.

And I'm not speaking alltime high, just a higher high from from where we're at.

What it technically means is that price there's a high probability or an increased probability that price is not likely to go below the prior candle's

low in this case which currently sits at 599 right so we'll call it 60k and so so with that in mind things could still

play out we could still have a green can we could still have a green monthly close and going as low as where was the closed last month 66985. So you know

basically 67 we could go as low basically to the bottom you know lower end of this range and still respect this signal. Now again it could be

signal. Now again it could be invalidated. We've seen some signals

invalidated. We've seen some signals invalidate recently and the uh volatility that we have the manipulation coming from the manipulator and chief uh all of those things kind of play into

that. But uh so this is this is a little

that. But uh so this is this is a little bit of a contradiction from the death cross, right? Cuz the death cross

cross, right? Cuz the death cross suggests we're going down. The um

monthly signal suggests that we're going to hold within this range. Both can be true. Both can be truth for the month of

true. Both can be truth for the month of of March. So, um, again, this could

of March. So, um, again, this could certainly be invalidated, and I'm not certainly not ruling out the possibility of that happening, but it is something

to be, uh, mindful of in the fact that I think the the the priority is and the stronger signal is the death cross, uh,

will eventually play out as it has every time it's occurred. And this isn't one that actually happens a lot. This has

occurred uh, a few times. And each time it it has some significant impact on price action. Here you can see back in

price action. Here you can see back in 2022 which has a lot of similarities to what we're seeing right now. This is you know this took us to the next leg down.

But if you look back to 2018 it actually marked the bottom at that point. So

either scenario is in play, right?

>> Yeah. I mean it still pumped into the that cross in 2018. Yeah. Yeah. But then

retrace back to what SMA is that 200 I guess.

>> Yeah. So, so you know that 200 I remember back in the early days when we were like, man, that 200 has never been never been broken. You you can never say never because obviously it happened, right? It obviously it happened right

right? It obviously it happened right here and that and that changed everything. So, uh, with that, I want to

everything. So, uh, with that, I want to go ahead and, um, turn things over to Fred to climb into some of the metrics in the MI dashboard. And, uh, Fred, it'

be great if you can explain how you're interpreting, uh, the data there and, uh, and applying it to your analysis.

I'll go ahead and release. I guess I need to release the screen.

>> All right. So, you guys can see my screen right?

>> I always like to start out with the correlation. It has I think the highest

correlation. It has I think the highest impact on on my trading out of these tools.

>> All right. Hey Fred, real quick if you can just pull your mic a little bit closer to your mouth.

>> Better >> much.

>> Okay. So on the last the last call was on uh the 5th of of February, right?

>> Mhm. And at the time we had mentioned that Bitcoin was was in the capitalization territory which you can see here the blue label for for

capitulation and that it was likely going to be a local bottom which as it turns out now it was but let me just you know go back and and explain the whole

interface again. So on the drop down

interface again. So on the drop down here you can select several metrics and and currently this one is called alts to BTC correlation. On the y on the x-axis

BTC correlation. On the y on the x-axis here you see the date in the in the first panel. The yaxis is the bitcoin

first panel. The yaxis is the bitcoin price and then here you see the bitcoin um time series colorcoded. We'll get to that in a second. Then the the center

pane here is the 14-day rolling correlation of all the altcoins to Bitcoin. And on the Y-axis here, you see

Bitcoin. And on the Y-axis here, you see the pairs. It only shows a handful

the pairs. It only shows a handful because it will be too much to render, but you can zoom in to see all of them.

And >> they're al they're alphabetical so it's easy to find.

>> Yeah. Yeah. And then on the right hand side you see the color bar uh going from red to blue and it says here a correlation in percent. So the lowest

value is actually it can be negative because it can have negative correlation but it starts out with the with the lowest correlation and the the highest

correlation is is at 100%. And then

there's this saying uh that during crisis all correlations go towards one.

That means correlations typically rise on dumps and conversely they they drop on local tops and that's what you see

here during the formation of of local tops. You see a lot of red here which is

tops. You see a lot of red here which is low correlation and this is then also colorcoded on the Bitcoin time series

and conversely on prices. So when

there's a severe dumps going on, you see a lot of purple here, blue blue purple, which means very high correlation.

That's when all the alts are basically trading the same way as Bitcoin because there's, you know, everybody's rushing to sell. Then the the bottom pane here

to sell. Then the the bottom pane here is the overall correlation in arbitrary units, which is also categorized into

into four labels. you have blowoff, encapsulation, fear, and optimism. So

the red ones, the blowoff labels uh typically show a condensation of of this heat map into this one-dimensional time

series uh to make it easier to to spot uh these blowoff areas. And and as you can see, this happened a few times where

where you have extreme uh decorrelation and it usually happens pretty much at the top. So during during the Fred uh

the top. So during during the Fred uh just real quick during those periods those red periods of of decorrelation

mass decorrelation are those times that are kind of like fingerprints of an alt rally or I guess it could also mean alter dumping and and and Bitcoin's

holding.

>> Yes, the you just mentioned an important point. Yeah, correlation can go both

point. Yeah, correlation can go both ways. you know, Bitcoin can can hold uh

ways. you know, Bitcoin can can hold uh steady while alts are doing their own thing or alts can, you know, remain steady while Bitcoin is is doing its

thing. But here the the correlation is

thing. But here the the correlation is doesn't account for that. It's

regardless of of which one is static and which one is is the uh one that's moving. But still, you get often the

moving. But still, you get often the indication of low correlation being the top. And then we've had a lot more

top. And then we've had a lot more calculation environments here where where you have extreme uh correlation above like 80%.

>> Mhm.

>> 70 70 80%. And that's the blue part here on on the chart. And as you can see well blue purple as you can see this is this often coincides with with local bottoms.

And even last time we mentioned it, you know, that this was likely going to mean mean revert because it was in a capitulation environment and they did that, you know, within a month.

>> Yeah. So these things don't necessarily signal like that it's exact now. It's

kind of like this is what's developing and and it could take some time to to to play out.

>> Yeah. I mean, usually it takes between one and two weeks. As you can see here, it was light blue and then the first uh purple do that we got was was pretty

much uh at the bottom u on a daily closing basis and but you know it stayed elevated for for a while. So I I suppose uh when you see something like that it

it's better to to DCA into this or you know to start closing shorts rather than do it all at once because it can take you know between one and two weeks and

which in this case was still you know uh pretty spot-on. So to determine if this

pretty spot-on. So to determine if this is like if that if that decorrelation is bullish or bearish for alts, can you can

you gain that alpha out of the rolling CVD chart?

>> Uh sure. So that's this is another metric here where you can see the so the rolling change in CVD over the last two

weeks uh for all the USDT coin pairs and blue here means negative order flow that means people were market selling on

those pairs and red means positive order flow so they were uh market buying and as you can see there's a whole lot more blue generally and And the reds start

only starts appearing uh near the tops.

But what also happened recently is that it just start you know disappeared like people have left the space or or gave up trading at least on Binance and then

there's this you know large white space that has persisted since uh November uh last year or or I guess this was shortly

after the uh the Binance dump where the automatic deleveraging crashed a lot of pairs by 80% as opposed people just gave up on on that uh after that. Then the

the the center page here shows the median rolling change across all the pairs. And what's useful here is that a

pairs. And what's useful here is that a lot of the time when orderflow turns positive or you know almost positive

here you see local tops you know start to form. The last time we went to near

to form. The last time we went to near zero or even positive was the local top here and the one that was before that

was also a local top. Then there were two periods in 2024 where it went significantly positive and both ended up being local tops as well. On the

downside, it is not as indicative because even even though we went to a record, I don't know, 7 billion in the in the negative. It was not anywhere

close to a local bottom and it just persisted for a long time. So, the the cell pressure is is generally more severe. But when we get close to zero or

severe. But when we get close to zero or or even positive numbers, that's usually an indication of a local top. And

actually right now the bottom pane here shows that the percentage of positive or percentage of coins with with positive

order flow is near the 50% mark which also like the last time that happened

was was in Q2 24 at the time that was the local top and but we still have some ways you know for for this to to get

anywhere close to to zero or or even positive. So it it may still take one or

positive. So it it may still take one or two weeks at this trajectory.

>> So are you saying that that maybe maybe we haven't hit the local top?

>> I think we're within two weeks.

>> Okay. So

>> b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b based on this.

>> So kind of pulling this back to the uh initial part of the conversation where we're we're kind of in this structural structural range. the local top like

structural range. the local top like right now the local top is around 74k but we've we have shown you guys how in

time scapes for example we've got another um another cluster of of structural resistance uh I think it's

the I think it's the first weekly open of of April 2024 uh that's around 78k and uh that I mean we've been waiting

we've since we lost the yearly open.

We've been waiting for a test. I mean,

we've been waiting for a test of of resistance up at the 50week moving average uh back when it was up above 100K. That never materialized. Then we

100K. That never materialized. Then we

lost the yearly open. We were waiting for a retest of that at 875. That never

materialized. So, it seems like the longer we go, the chances of getting up to those levels is is dwindling or eroding. But even in a bare market, you

eroding. But even in a bare market, you and and this is this is what screws a lot of people up. Even in a bare market, you cannot ignore the fact that these bare market

rallies can happen and they're ruthless and they trap a bunch of people and that's how this market dynamic works.

>> Maybe a little caveat on this. It may

not work the same way because now something happened that hasn't happened before, which is that a lot of these alts basically have zero order flow,

which kind of it may mess with signals that have worked before, but you know, maybe it won't work anymore this time because now you >> activity anymore.

>> This actually speaks volumes right here.

like you know there's still a cohort of people out there who think that alt season is happening tomorrow and and looking at this view and I don't think I

even realized it till this I I mean I I felt it in my in my heart and in my you know in my analysis of what was what was

happening with alts to a large degree broadly but this really illustrates it perfectly. If you start on the left side

perfectly. If you start on the left side of this chart where it's where there's a lot more color and as we get to where we are now, uh you just pointed it out, there's there's a lot of white space,

gray and white space in there. And that

is indicative of the fact that fewer alts are getting traded. And I think that this market I I mean the market is maturing and in my opinion one of the

best things that can happen is that a lot of these shitcoins and scams just evaporate and go away and that capital

can then rotate into Bitcoin, ETH and the the limited number of alt projects

that actually might have some merit and usefulness.

>> Maybe let me just say something about about time scale, you know, to reiterate on on uh last time. So what this is showing is the Bitcoin price action on

the daily time frame. And here we have enabled uh timecape with the yearly lines only. You can set the levels here

lines only. You can set the levels here yourself. You have daily, weekly,

yourself. You have daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly. If we

set let's say quarterly, we we also have the quarterly levels. But let's only focus on on the yearly ones for now. And

we've seen some parallels to 2022.

Everybody's talking about it. And so

what happened back then was uh we dumped right out of the out of the gate. Uh as

soon as the year opened, the price started to dump and it actually retested the 2021 yearly open. But why, you know, there's

yearly open. But why, you know, there's actually two levels here. There's uh not just one yearly open, but two. And this

has to do with the first one appearing on the 1st of January in in 21. And then

the second one appearing here on the 4th. So the fourth was actually the

4th. So the fourth was actually the first weekly open of the year. As it

turns out, it's or you know, from my observations, I've noticed that the the first weekly open of the year is actually also important. And in this case, it was actually the retest here of

of this dump during the first quarter of of 22, which ended up being the the bottom. And the reason why I think

bottom. And the reason why I think timecape is is valuable and actually more predictive than than a regular price action uh trading, you know, TA based on on price action is that a lot

of people would say this was the bottom because we had PA here, right?

>> But it turns out that the level actually came, you know, earlier. it already

existed on on the 1st of January and then was retested here and then again retested later and we we also see a

bunch of retests on on this weekly level and and then again in the Q122 area but what's also important is here

the bear rally top was was actually a rejection at the at the yearly open level. So this is kind of the the retest

level. So this is kind of the the retest when entering a bare market that that occurs frequently. Not not every time

occurs frequently. Not not every time but a lot of time when we enter a bare market there will be a retest of the of the yearly open which is almost the

perfect exit. I mean it it also happened

perfect exit. I mean it it also happened back in uh the you know the prior cycle

2018 to 2020 here the yearly open was at 13.8. 8k and that was actually the

13.8. 8k and that was actually the perfect retest on the July 2019 rally before going back to the you know 4,000

level which which was also a retest of a yearly open. So uh you know if if you

yearly open. So uh you know if if you just play the yearly opens alone you you already you're you're able to capture a lot of of the price movements but but anyway so

>> that's a pretty easy trading year right if if you just play the opens. Another

thing I had to talk about during the last call was that a lot of the time it's not worth longing below the yearly open because you never know where the

where the bottom is and and you will just end up catching or attempting to catch knives until you run out of money.

Um >> so I made it a rule for myself to just not long below the yearly open. You can

still be shorting and TP at the during periods where price is below the yearly open, but I I prefer not to have a long bias because of exactly this risk. So

you you you think maybe that was the the local bottom, right? And then it drops a bit lower and then you say, okay, maybe that is the local bottom. Maybe that is the local bottom and there's just a

whole lot of uncertainty and you know the more it dumps and the more you incurred draw down the worse you feel

about it and and you know more mistakes you make in in trading. So what I did instead was to just say I'm not longing below the yearly open. I'm going to wait

until either we reclaim the yearly open, which would be, you know, if if price had crossed this threshold and and then ideally retested it or just wait until

the next yearly open, which was almost exactly at the bottom. And so you could have just skipped this entire period, you know, not had this.

>> Okay. So, so I guess during trading and and just, >> you know, >> I was I was going to ask >> I was going to ask how you if you only trade if you only long above the yearly

open, then how do you how do you buy into the recovery? And you just answered it. You wait till the next yearly open.

it. You wait till the next yearly open.

>> Yeah. So, yeah, exactly. You don't have to you don't have to know. That's it's

as simple as that, you know. you just

you don't go crazy uh trying to call the the the bottom, right? because you you could have had a lot of bad calls here

and instead you just uh wait for either the reclaim or simply the next year and the next year was almost exactly at the you know global bottom and the same

thing happened uh back in in the prior cycle you know >> so you like that you like that better than a DCA strategy rather than DCAing at the at key levels on the way down you just you're just going to ride it out

and wait until the wait until the yearly Well, the thing is there's several things that align with that. So, just

from observations almost in every cycle, even in in stocks, the yearly open is near the global bottom and and you know,

a new year always brings a new trend, right?

>> You know, a lot of the time >> and so when there's going to be a trade trend change, the yearly open is a good opportunity for that. And so similarly

uh you could have just you know not tried to long here as soon as we lost the yearly open avoided all this headache and just come back uh to you

know long the next year's open and it would have been way better than any DCA strategy and you would have not flipped back and forth you know all the time losing money.

>> That's that's that's really that's really valuable. It's more of peace of

really valuable. It's more of peace of mind than uh you know trading strategy optimization. It just gives you peace of

optimization. It just gives you peace of mind.

>> Yeah. I mean it takes a lot of stress out too because you know from a technical aspect I look at the 69K

range as a pretty solid level the DCA just because it's such such an uh important part of the structure. It's

foundational in my opinion and at the moment it's holding as foundational support but by the end of the day it could be foundational resistance. We we

keep you know flipping that range as we did for for eight months. Fred if you'll release the screen something I want to show you real quick.

>> One sec. I want to show where it doesn't work with that.

>> So 2025 was actually a good example of of where it's not as simple as that. So

you know we lost the yearly open. We

even bearishly retested it, which was a great short entry that was the Trump seed pump, you know, where where Trump was was hyping up Bitcoin. And uh a lot

of people, including ourselves, you know, highlighted that that this was likely going to be a fake out, which it was. But what's important here is we

was. But what's important here is we broke through this yearly open range uh here and then retested it perfectly. And

that was the the perfect long entry. And

we we had even anticipated this, you know, we said that yes, this can happen.

It can reclaim the the yearly open, but when it's going to do that, it's likely going to retest this level, which it did, >> right? So the break the breakout was a

>> right? So the break the breakout was a high-risisk fake out and the retest was was a much more conservative trade. So

the the point here is that even if you you know start entering a short because price you know lost the yearly open or even start shorting here at the at the

retest you're not going to lose a whole lot of money because it is you know even even if it goes against you you're going to get an almost perfect retest for you

to flip your bias. So if you had, you know, entered a short here, let's say, and kept it throughout, you could have exited here at minimal loss.

>> So you're saying you would have, if you were in that trade, you would have rather than let it go to stop-loss or get licked, you would have wrote it out until the retest.

>> I mean, and yeah, I did. So I I did flip here on this retest because I you know I said weeks or or even months ago that this can happen and if it does it's gonna it's likely going to retest the

yearly open which it did. But then also you just avoid a whole lot of draw down if you just don't long below this yearly

open. And on ETH it's even more

open. And on ETH it's even more pronounced. uh ETH I think lost uh 70%

pronounced. uh ETH I think lost uh 70% back here 60% just from the yearly open range and you could have just shorted

here at the loss of the yearly open and avoided all of this draw down and and similarly you know this year we did lose the yearly open we got a a retest and

then again 40% draw down and and so this time on on Bitcoin as well we lost the yearly open we didn't get a perfect retest I and it it was kind of diddling

around here on on the lower level and and maybe you can consider that a bearish retest. But what hasn't happened

bearish retest. But what hasn't happened yet, it was, you know, concise retest of of this level, a bearish retest. And it

may still happen. You know, if if price does go on to do a a enormous bare rally, which you know, I guess in this market environment could happen, uh this

might prove to be a good area to to fade that move. you know, the year between

that move. you know, the year between 87K and 91K. And if you're wrong about, you know, you know, let's say we're wrong about this and, you know, just goes through, then you would expect a

retest of of the 91.6k level at which point, you know, if if the trend goes on to make a bullish recovery, that would be a good area here to flip.

>> Yeah. And I think I think this is this is what confused a lot of people. like

we expected, as I said earlier, we we we first expected to see a retest at the 50week moving average. It didn't happen.

We came let's see at that point in time the 50we was up at around 101k and price made it up to like 98k and I

forget what happened at that time but there was something there was something probably tariff related I don't you know or maybe it was a carry trade I don't remember what it was but there was

something that um robbed us at that of that opportunity and so we we lo that and that was that was early January

Right. So, we had that that January open

Right. So, we had that that January open >> and we never really got the test that we were that we were looking for in terms

of going back to those two time scapes.

We got we we had some some decent support testing around the yearly open at 875 but didn't quite make it back up

to that first weekly open of the year at at around you know 913 I think it was and so how high did we go back then we went to well actually we did get get up

there 91.1 so we did get a test of resistance there I stand corrected and and then came into another support test

before it before it broke down. And so I guess that 913 was already tested. And

in terms of 875 getting tested, do you still think that there's a good chance similarly similarly to what you just highlighted about that U-turn? You you

still think there's a good chance that we hit 87.5 before the next breakdown?

>> I I don't know. I all I can say is that if we get it, this will be a good opportunity to to short because uh even if you you know if we're wrong about this, it's likely that we're going to

get a a retest uh where you can uh get out at break even basically.

>> Cool. Cool. Cool. So, let me I I want to let you get back into some of the other metrics, but I wanted to share something while I'm while I'm thinking about it.

um on the on fire charts actually and I noticed this the other day. You know,

it's always good to zoom out and get some perspective from different time frames from time to time. And I'm

looking at the chart and and we know we spotted a couple of T-wap periods in the short term like and you can see this uh out of the yellow class really pretty

prominently in these in these couple of periods like this was a T-w this looked like a T-wap out this definely

40 million in two hours almost a vertical line but looking at the monthly chart I noticed that the green order

class of $1,000 to $10,000 orders just on really a nearly contourless diagonal trajectory which >> even more pronounced on on a six-month

window.

>> Right? So this this indicates that this was a T-wap strategy. You can see there's a little like on the monthly you can see a little bit that there is some contour in it. So it's not 100% of the order class, right? Obviously, there's

other other traders in this class, but but it seems to me that this order class at the for the last month has been dominated by a T-wap bot that's

accumulating. And if we switch to

accumulating. And if we switch to Absolute CBD, we can see that they have accumulated roughly $600 million worth in in the past in the past 30 days. But look at

the divergence between some of what the other order classes are doing. The

purple whales are out 31, you know, down net 31 million in that same time frame.

The red class down nearly 800 million in that time frame. So, there's at least one entity that is accumulating in this

range.

And that to me speaks to the the the viability of DCAing at this level. But I

really like your your strategy of just playing the time scapes and not having all the stress of whether you're right or whether you're wrong. I think most of

us who feel that we are in a bare market and I guess those that don't feel we're in a bare market are are delusional hopeatics. But I think we feel that the

hopeatics. But I think we feel that the bottom isn't in. But we also feel that on on a macro macro scale, Bitcoin will again make an all-time high at some

point in time. But I just don't think it's happening in in 2026. So I want to flip it back to you, Fred, and if you want to climb into some of the other

metrics that you're looking at in the dashboard. I know that you like to look

dashboard. I know that you like to look at the at the beta a lot and also the realized volatility.

>> Yeah. So the beta is actually a continuation of the correlation. So

actually the the beta the correlation is part of the beta calculation which is why it looks so similar. So let's just focus on on the call coding. Maybe low

beta means basically decorrelation, you know, where where all have or almost cash like zero beta means means cash.

Beta of one means that it's basically trading as as Bitcoin and anything above means that it is exacerbating a bitcoin

moves. So in this case, we see alts

moves. So in this case, we see alts basically reverting to cashlike behavior, a zero beta. And that also,

you know, was was pretty indicative here of of the local tops. It's always a bit too early because, you know, tops don't form the same way as as bottoms. So, it's always a slower where, you know,

bottoms you always get a whole lot of time you get like capsulation moves where price just goes, you know, straight down. But with top formation,

straight down. But with top formation, it's it's slower. And usually here you see uh the the zero beta being left to the tops. It's always a bit early. Same

the tops. It's always a bit early. Same

here and the same here. But it's an indication you know to start being careful when you see zero beta basically. Um conversely if uh you know

basically. Um conversely if uh you know price is dumping then you have high beta and that's you know the purple periods here which a lot of the time uh is also

indicative of of the local bottom. same

uh as here started appearing during our last call basically on the 5th of of February and and right now here the bottom part shows the share of of high

beta pairs uh the blue line is at 70% so 70% of of coins currently have high beta and what you want to see during the

formation of a local top is is kind of this dropping back into the 60% range which hasn't happened yet. I mean it it

happened here uh for a brief uh period of time which was like a mini local top but but I think this is is gearing up for another local top here maybe in the

next two weeks. Another metric I I like to look at after the correlation is the returns on draw downs. So to explain the chart layout first the x-axis here is

the date again this is bitcoin time series on the y axis you see the bitcoin price on log scale the second pane here

is the twoe rolling returns for all the pairs and the color uh color bar shows negative 20% to positive 20% and the

center is at zero and this is the rolling return here. So meaning that you have everything that's blue is negative rolling returns over over a two week

horizon and everything that's red is positive rolling returns. And then on the on the third pane you see the rolling drawdowns.

So this is how much basically drawdowns the all suffered you know during during the same time. Zero means there there was no no draw down during two week

period and 50 here is you know 50% draw down over the twoe period and what you can see is that first of all it's you

know very correlated you know the draw down appears across almost all pairs at the same time but recently we haven't had a whole lot of returns and we have

not had a whole lot of draw down it's just basically been quite tame. But then

the the bottom period is is what I'm actually looking at most of the time, which shows the percentage of coins with positive returns in blue and the

percentage of coins with draw downs less than 10% in orange. So what what what is important here is that low drawdowns typically lead the returns. So meaning

that if there's periods of low draw downs uh what falls next usually is is periods of of higher returns. So if you zoom in a bit here you can see this

first we had alts bottoming out meaning that they had low draw downs you know less than 10%. And then they started to move. The the blue line came after the

move. The the blue line came after the orange one. And that's here where a top

orange one. And that's here where a top started to form in both Bitcoin and alts where almost all the coins had positive

two week rolling returns. And then the same thing here. Last time we we mentioned that this the orange line was was starting to move up and this time

again you know it it led the return. So

the the the rollons always come first or the the load drawons and that is then followed by by the returns. We haven't

yet seen this go into the like 80 to 100% range and that you know if you project this I guess you know takes like another two weeks or so before April

anyway. So if if it continues at the at

anyway. So if if it continues at the at the current tra trajectory and this is you know I really like to like look at the correlation and and the scroll down

chart here at the bottom pane because it shows you when alts are basically bottoming out giving you a heads up that the whole market might start to move

soon. everybody's ready and and like th

soon. everybody's ready and and like th this ch when we're when we're sideways in a range, I mean, we're we're pretty volatile within this range, but when we

are in this kind of consolidation, people get impatient, and that's when they make mistakes. And so, we're we're about out of time, but I just want to show one more thing really quick of how

uh I'm really integrating all these tools uh into a system. And you know, you've got a lot at your disposal with EMI dashboard. And of course, we have

EMI dashboard. And of course, we have fire charts and trend precognition and um and the MTF mean reversion indicator.

And I want to show you a way that I'm using some of these tools that may not be uh top of mind for some of you guys.

So, yesterday I made a call. I think it was yesterday that uh I I felt like things were getting were getting toppy.

And I actually what what made me start to think about that was first uh checking in on an MTF trade that

actually hit perfectly. This is a 1.5% deviation and absolutely beautiful call uh Sunday. This was Sunday evening my

uh Sunday. This was Sunday evening my time and that was at like 656 and uh price began to rally as you can

see and I noticed this cluster of yesterday I I I noticed this cluster of red alerts and these are like dump

alerts. It's it's kind of a signal that

alerts. It's it's kind of a signal that things are getting overheated, a little bit unstable, and as you can tell, it's not like it's not a perfect call, right?

It happens, price recovers. It happens,

price recovers. It happens, price goes back closer to mean. So, it there was a series of these happening and I felt like we're we're coming off the top of the channel. This this really is

the channel. This this really is concerning in terms of keeping a long open. And so this was the first

open. And so this was the first indication and then I did another unconventional move. Trend precognition

unconventional move. Trend precognition is most definitely optimized for higher time frames, but I do like to use it with an adjustment uh of the probability

score uh on the A2 plus ALGO. I'll crank

it up to, you know, somewhere in the 55 to 65% range. And I'm, you know, when I'm making these adjustments, I'm looking to see uh I'm looking to see signals in the places that you would

expect to see signals. And on that 1 hour time frame, I saw a signal that was well correlated with the uh noise we

were seeing here on MTF and felt like, okay, there's two pieces of the puzzle that are telling me things are looking toppy here. And then uh to

round it out, I looked at fire charts and I could see we had this uh additional liquidity coming in overhead.

Wales had started selling and that was all I needed. So I used all of those pieces of information together to help me uh make the determination that things

were getting toppy. I closed the long scalp and um well now we are short from up in this range. And Fred, one more thing I wanted to ask you about when you

said that you're you're really just kind of riding it out and waiting for the uh either a a retest on those times levels up around the yearly open or maybe a

wait until the upcoming yearly open to to to make a trade. Are you scalping long and short within within the price action that we have now or are you just kind of like

>> Yeah, of course. I'm I'm not just abandoning the trading because uh you know we're below the yearly open. All

I'm saying is that this sets my bias.

You know I'm I'm rather short below the yearly open and if we so below the yearly open I I

sell rallies and above the yearly open I buy dips or to simplify let's say every bare market has a red yearly candle.

It it sounds you know dumb but but that's what it is. and and bare market price action can accelerate massively to the to the downside. And you know, this

this is just not where where you want to be catching nice because the market might just be in in a downtrend for for a whole lot longer than uh you have

funds for. And

funds for. And >> but so this is just, you know, it it basically sets my bias. uh and below the

above the yearly open I I I trade I I buy dips and have a long bias and below the yearly open I sell rips and have a

short bias but that doesn't mean I stop trading I just uh my uh shift my risk management basically >> right that makes that makes a lot of

sense and just to punctuate it um you just said uh bare markets have red yearly candles let me do this let me let me just switch uh trend precognition

back to my uh back to the default settings for a higher time frame and show you this which concurs with your

with your observation that bare markets have this is the yearly candle and this is why I think we don't see an all-time high in 2026. It's also why I don't

think we see one in the first half of the year on the six-month chart. Now,

this doesn't mean that we can't find bottom within that time, but I think just historically based on what we've seen in prior uh prior cycles, it's it's

more likely that we establish a bottom somewhere around uh you know Q3 Q4 before we we we start to see that recovery. That that was actually the

recovery. That that was actually the other thing I I was going to say about there's many factors that that play into this um phenomenon that uh you see bottoms around the the yearly open or

you know around the open of the next year. Bitcoin has this seasonality that

year. Bitcoin has this seasonality that uh it usually takes about a year between the top of the bull market and the

bottom of the bare market. And so the top as you said was uh Q3 or Q4 I think.

Yeah, Q4 in 25 and that would suggest it, you know, we'll see the bottom in around Q4 uh 26.

Uh and the same thing happened in the in the previous cycle. Bitcoin topped in Q4 21 and then the bottom was in Q422.

>> Mhm.

>> And the the yearly open, you know, the beginning of the next year is just so close to that. It's It's within the same quarter basically.

>> Right. Right. Right. All right. We

covered a lot of ground today and Fred, I appreciate appreciate you bringing us all along for the ride and and and helping us get inside your head on how to interpret these tools and use them

the best. And much thanks to our premium

the best. And much thanks to our premium plus community going to make this available in a recording in a private channel uh for you guys. And we'll have we'll have transcripts available for you

as well. All right. In the meantime,

as well. All right. In the meantime, make it a great day. Trade safe. Stay

safe if you're in a hot spot around the world. And I hope this stuff helps you

world. And I hope this stuff helps you trade smarter.

>> All right. Thank you everyone.

>> Thank you. Goodbye.

>> Bye.