NEW Gold & Silver Price Targets, BUST SOON | David Hunter

I would not be surprised to see and I'm still calling for a global bust that next year um we move towards doubledigit unemployment. I think we are in that

unemployment. I think we are in that final uh parabolic meltup phase and I I expect we'll probably see those targets reached this summer. I think you can get

for a month or two or three an uptick, but I think the trend in inflation is still down.

The S&P 500 is trading at nearrecord highs. Are we in that final meltup phase

highs. Are we in that final meltup phase that my guest has been predicting for a while? Or is this just the usual? Gold

while? Or is this just the usual? Gold

and silver have corrected since the recent rally, but blew way past my guest's target. By the way, my guest is

guest's target. By the way, my guest is David Hunter. He's a chief micro

David Hunter. He's a chief micro strategist over at Contrarian Macro Advisors, and I'm really looking forward to catching up with him. He's made some excellent calls, and we we'll see where we stand right now. what is the current

economic and macro framework that we need to sort of um hang on to? What do

we need to understand about the market right now? Before I switch over to my

right now? Before I switch over to my guest though, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out

subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously. We really really

tremendously. We really really appreciate it. Thank you so much for

appreciate it. Thank you so much for doing that. Now, David, it is a great

doing that. Now, David, it is a great pleasure to have you back on the show.

Thank you so much for joining us again.

Yeah. Hi, Kai. Thanks for having me on again.

Yeah, really looking forward to the conversation. When I did my homework for

conversation. When I did my homework for this uh you know interview, I I realized we last spoke six, seven months ago.

that feels like a lifetime ago based on all the news that we've seen uh and that has hit us here in recent weeks. Um you

know you're very famous for of course the meltup strategy David and I need to get your like maybe overall glimpse into where where we at right now. Maybe we'll

start at the macro high level here. Um

has your thesis changed at all in recent months? Um I guess since we last talked

months? Um I guess since we last talked my my targets have been raised and and raised pretty substantially in the medals. Uh I think they may have been

medals. Uh I think they may have been raised in the uh equities maybe not.

Depends on around that time because my my fourth quarter letter comes out in early October and I did raise equity targets then. So um so there's a

targets then. So um so there's a I have 8,700 on the S&P for you. Um

okay. So yeah, that was just before I raised because I did raise back in October to 9500. Okay.

Um so um you know I I think we are in that final uh parabolic meltup phase and I I expect we'll probably see those targets reached this summer.

Let let's let's set the framework though. Let's let's discuss like how are

though. Let's let's discuss like how are we getting there? What is driving this?

Um I said it yesterday in a conversation. It seems like the economy

conversation. It seems like the economy is doing fine. like I'm starting to think that not everything can be manipulated and maybe the economy is doing better than we've all expected. Uh

besides consumer sentiment, maybe that is geopolitically driven. Um but I'm really curious what your take is. Is the

economy actually way stronger than we're all expecting?

I think it's mixed. I think there what we see is that certain parts of the economy are propping it up and doing very well. um as we saw today when um

very well. um as we saw today when um you know uh the capital goods orders came out um it's you know the industrial side where we're seeing the reshoring

where we're seeing um defense spending where we're seeing a lot of the heavier industries actually expanding. Um

they're doing very well. Um when you kind of look at the consumer, half the consumer is doing very well.

Unfortunately, you know, half the consumers are basically just getting by.

Cost of living is going up. You know, we obviously got hit with, you know, big rise in in prices over the last few years and groceries and and now we have

with the Iranian situation, oil going through the, you know, going up sharply.

So, so the consumer is, you know, those that have um equity portfolios, those that have good jobs and and are making,

you know, are in the top half of the income uh spectrum are doing quite well.

Their housing equity is is still strong.

They, you know, they're in pretty good shape, but the bottom half of the economic spectrum is really struggling.

And so you are seeing, you know, a fall-off in some areas. Um, you know, dining out isn't as strong as it was, things like that. Um, the economy, I

think, is probably, you know, we're not we're not in recession. Um, there are aspects of the

recession. Um, there are aspects of the economy in recession.

um we may be able to get this thing through uh to the election. You know, at one point for those that are trying to get uh don't want to see a change in in

you know who's kind of running the government, uh they were worried, at least in my forecast, that we'd we'd see that all come to an end by mid year this year and that the second half would be

rough and it'd be tough for Republicans to win. given how where the economy is

to win. given how where the economy is right now, that may be for those that want a Republican victory. The good news is that it may actually hold together

for longer than I expected. Um, so the economy is kind of mixed. It's not it's not roaring away, but there are parts of it that are doing pretty well.

Obviously, if if the Iranian conflict um lasts for very long, uh that could change a lot.

But um since you brought that up, let's stay on the Iranian topic real quick. Um

it seems like the US is quite insulated from it though. Um like how how do you put that into perspective? Yes, oil

prices go higher, but the US has plenty of supply. It's very it's pretty much

of supply. It's very it's pretty much self-sufficient. It even exports to

self-sufficient. It even exports to other countries now. Um like how do you put that into perspective? Will the US perhaps see a decoupling? Will we see second oil market perhaps pop up? And I

don't want to get too granular on the oil topic. just trying to understand

oil topic. just trying to understand like what that means um economically for the US.

Yeah, I I think certainly we have the supply that um a lot of the world does not have as a result of the you know the blockade and the the closing of the

street. Um we we are not going to be

street. Um we we are not going to be short of energy. We are not going to be in that position. Um prices here are probably going to be better behaved than

around the world. But oil's gone from 65 to you know 103 or four dollars here um

in what um you know two months time. So

and gasoline's gone up you know a buck and change. Um so it is for those on the

and change. Um so it is for those on the you know the where they were tight already that just makes their they have to choose now they have to say you know

do I choose between taking a trip or do I have to choose between um certain you know the gasoline cost is going up and they have to take it from somewhere else

you know um but um generally yeah I mean the US is probably in the best shape of anybody around the world as a result of our our energy situation.

And I think if you fast forward, if you have any optimism about Iran, and I do, um, this could turn out very well for the US, um, and basically the world

could, um, could turn around here pretty quickly. It's it's a situation where I

quickly. It's it's a situation where I think everybody's caught in right now.

And right now, obviously, um, things are are going adverse to what maybe we would like to see. Uh, for

sure. Um, and everybody gets gloom and doom about, well, how are you going to ever get, you know, the Iranian Guard to uh do a deal? How are you going to really see this thing evolve? And so

they go back into that uh worry about this is going to be a drawn out situation. I think that's unlikely. I

situation. I think that's unlikely. I

think the the move to a blockade, in my opinion, was a a very very u good move.

And you know, the the RI IGC, I mean, IRGC can um try to try to talk a good game, but ultimately they're they're

days away from their having no place to put their oil and having to cap their oil. That's a very detrimental thing

oil. That's a very detrimental thing longer term if they, you know, if they allow that to happen. So, I think they're under a lot more pressure than they want to make us believe. Sure, they

can cause mischief out around the Middle East and elsewhere, but ultimately I I think it's just a matter of having a little patience. You know, we we are a

little patience. You know, we we are a country right now having gone through Afghanistan and and Iraq that has little

tolerance for war. Um and so, but you know, we haven't had casualties since early in the you know, the first few

days of the war. Um and right now we're just in a waiting game. Um I you know again there's there's things that can go adverse but ultimately if you step

through this and have some optimism I think you could have for the first time you know looking out a few months for the first time in in many many decades.

Peace in the Middle East. um development

in the Middle East in terms of Gaza um on Iran that is no longer a state sponsor of terrorism but actually is can start looking forward in terms of being

more of a productive country again. Um

but you know it doesn't happen overnight and right now it's messy so you know investors are are skittish. No

no absolutely and I think we're seeing that I think I mentioned consumer sentiment before I think that's what we're seeing exactly there. people are

just a bit wary and and cautious when it comes to to spending perhaps as well, right?

Yeah. I think it's it's cost of living.

You know, everybody obviously the elections are going to turn probably on whether the Democrats can convince people that affordability is something that Republicans aren't handling well.

And if they can, they'll probably win the midterm elections. But that's I think affordability is is number one topic for consumers.

Yeah. I'm I'm trying to think if there's an economic term or a textbook term for when the bottom half of the country is in recession and the rest is doing just fine. I know there's the term K-shaped

fine. I know there's the term K-shaped economy, but I don't think it really means what I wanted to express, right?

Because I'm looking at frontier spirit.

So, the low tier airlines going belly up or asking for government handouts right now, which are exactly what what you've described, the reasons um or signs for what is happening in the economy, right?

It's that K-shaped economy. Delta and

all the others are doing fine while Spirit and Frontier, right, are are tanking, right?

Yeah. You see that in luxury goods are doing okay, but you know, things that are kind of necessities are are slowing down or the lower end of the um income

scale um retail markets are are, you know, sluggish. Um but that's I think

know, sluggish. Um but that's I think although it's probably more extreme this time I think that's what you see uh typically going into a recession is

those that can um can afford it can keep pushing longer but ultimately these are early signs of recession I think is what we're seeing and ultimately it will tip

the entire economy over but not yet.

Yeah. Let's look at the labor market real quick just as a maybe one indicator to look at. It's always lagging, but uh I'm curious, what do you make of the labor market? If I look at just the pure

labor market? If I look at just the pure number, 4.3%, but I keep seeing news about layoffs at Meta and and all the other places. They're substituting now

other places. They're substituting now their workers for AI. Um, so what do you make of the labor market? Is that where it might break?

Yeah, I I think it's it's well, it's probably not just AI. I think AI is probably not going to be the tipping point. I think it's overall um AI yeah

point. I think it's overall um AI yeah AI influenced technology workers and things like that where AI is taking over. Yeah, some of that will be part of

over. Yeah, some of that will be part of it but I also think it is economic um and you will ultimately see a tip over.

Um I would not be surprised to see and I'm still calling for a global bust that next year um we move towards double

digit unemployment. Um so it'll it won't

digit unemployment. Um so it'll it won't happen fast. you're not going to you're

happen fast. you're not going to you're not going to go from four to 10 or uh anything like that. But I think if if the global economy

u really tips over into a credit crisis, uh this thing could get pretty ugly.

Absolutely. N I think we're already seeing a bit of stress in the private credit market here, David. Um what what do you make of that part? Is it just a a blip or is it just a bump in the road?

Is is everything fine or should we be concerned? Yeah, I think it's what it is

concerned? Yeah, I think it's what it is is early signs that we are moving towards a recession and ultimately what I call a global bust or a credit crisis.

um you get the the weaker areas just like the consumer, the weaker areas show up first and obviously um private credit is an area that got a lot of money in

the last in this cycle and it's starting to show signs because some of that money chased some things that probably were a little more um you know not not should

not have maybe been done. Um, and people in the in the private credit business would tell you this is normal. You know,

we we price in for risk and when that risk happens, we adjust. Um, so the market who is newer to this overreacts and says, "Oh my god, private credit,

we're, you know, the bust is now."

Uh, whereas those in the business tell you, "No, you know, there are writeoffs.

We're adjusting things." and at at the margin, yes, it's deteriorating, but we're nowhere near, I don't think, the tipping point yet. That could come, you know, in the months ahead, but I don't

think it's a sign that we're about to roll over.

Let's go through the signs. Let's go

through the signals and maybe cut through the noise as well. Let's let's

look at the bond market. You've been

calling for much lower yields. Um, so

far we're at 4.2 4.3% on the 10-year.

Um, that's the one I look at daily. U,

so nothing not much has changed. doesn't

seem like a run into safety or to towards safety. Um what do you make of

towards safety. Um what do you make of the bond market right now? What is it telling you?

Yeah, we've we've been basically in a range between say four and a quarter and 450 for the last couple months since since the war began. I think that's amazing resilience given what oil has

done, given what that the inflation numbers are ticking up, uh you know, given talk that the Fed is nowhere near another cut, all those things. And yet

the the bond market it's you know the 10 year backed up I think to 439 this morning at last I looked. So it's it's up a little bit higher in that range but

it really in my opinion has has been remarkably resilient these two months since the war began. Um and that's a good sign. I continue to call for this

good sign. I continue to call for this is uh you know that the that the bond market is in a bottoming formation that it's been in for the last two and a half

or almost three years. and that that's a major bottom uh a major top in rates and that once we come out of that formation, once we come out of that bottom in

bonds, you're in for a very big run in the bond market, a very uh long decline in rates um driven uh later by a global

bust. You know, a slowing economy, then

bust. You know, a slowing economy, then ultimately recession and ultimately uh global bust. And I continue to say,

global bust. And I continue to say, although this is a a crazy forecast, not unlike some of my others, and when they start out, uh very contrarian forecast,

but I continue to say we could see a 0% 10year at the bottom of the bus. Now,

that's 12 to 18 months out probably and maybe closer to 18, but but um you know, if we're at 440 now, uh to go down to anything close to zero would be a

remarkable run.

Has the structure of the bond market changed or maybe the the appetite for bonds in general looking at the debt situation for example in the US and then also the US Treasury issuing more

short-term bonds meaning builds um as well is that does that affect your your call at all like the the structure of the market in general?

Not this cycle. I do think we're, you know, it's a huge problem longer term and I do think that um on the other side of the bust because of the response will

that will be necessary for the bus which means massive money printing. We're

going to have a situation where you're going to have huge debt as we have now you know 330 trillion in global debt.

You know we know what our our um uh government debt is here in this country.

uh you're going to have a situation where you know out towards the end of this decade you could have high double digit interest rates and still have that massive debt and actually higher debt

because of what the response to the um bust will be. So you could, you know, what's 330, I'd like to quote the big number for global debt. The 330 trillion

could grow to 450 trillion by, you know, early 2030s.

And and so to, you know, even far bigger and yet have interest rates in the high double digit digit category. There's no

way you can you can square that equation. You know, something's got to

equation. You know, something's got to give. And what I think we'll give will

give. And what I think we'll give will be this is the bust will be the kind of the warning signal as bad as it will be.

It'll be kind of um the shot across the bow uh that this thing's coming to an end. And then I think the mid30s you're

end. And then I think the mid30s you're looking at um you know basically down for the count you know the Ponzi scheme's over. the punish scheme that's

scheme's over. the punish scheme that's been in place for 80 90 years comes to an end because you can't print money because there's high inflation and you don't have the wherewithal to service

your debt. So even even sovereign debt

your debt. So even even sovereign debt goes down down the you know tumbles over the mountain.

Um let's talk about that debt part and the inflation part but also the Fed um which I think is is the main topic. I

I'm I've shared this screen here just to show that we're recording this exactly 3 hours 37 minutes and 30 seconds before the Fed announcement so nobody can say anything that we we didn't know or

anything. Um just looking at the Fed

anything. Um just looking at the Fed watch tool here 100% uh no no cut. Um la

I've checked a few maybe a week ago and there was a chance maybe of of a rate hike as well. Um what what do you make of the Fed right now? Um what should they be doing? Yeah, of course. This is

Powell's last meeting as Fed chairman.

Um my guess is even even if we're not the last one, there's virtually no chance of a rate cut given where we're at with inflation and you know, not not

that inflation's uh I'm not worried about inflation as much as the street is, but inflation is ticking up. So, you

know, the Fed would look at that and say, I I you know, the economy seems sound. Inflation's ticking up. Why would

sound. Inflation's ticking up. Why would

we cut here? We need to give it more time. So, um I think it's, you know, the

time. So, um I think it's, you know, the odds are obviously right that we're not going to see a cut. I also think though given that it is Paul's last one, uh I

think there'd be little likelihood of a a hike now, but I don't think there's any likelihood because I don't think he wants to do that on his la his last meeting. Like I said, I think even if

meeting. Like I said, I think even if that were not the case, the odds are very high that he wouldn't that they wouldn't hike. Um but that virtually

wouldn't hike. Um but that virtually rules it out in my opinion. He wants to hand this thing off um in kind of neutral territory and say we we did our jobs.

Yeah. No, absolutely. Like I don't think I've ever seen 100% uh certainty here on the target rate from the Fed watch tool.

Quite honestly a bit surprised. Uh I've

been going through the news yesterday as well cuz the number hasn't changed since and I couldn't find anything any statement where Powell said yeah we're going to keep it that way cuz usually there's a little uncertainty maybe 99.8

or something like that but 100% is I'm always surprised to see that. Um let's

talk about inflation real quick David just just your take. Yes it is trending higher but uh um we've had Michael Michael How on from Capital Wars. I'm

not sure if you follow his work uh crossber not capital sorry crossber capital and like he predict or he he tells us it's all liquidity driven like M2 money supply a lot of things are

increasing $600 billion in indirect QE um or are propping up the markets and uh but inflation so far is only like the headline is only mentioning oil um so curious what your take is on the

inflation narrative here David yeah I am you know I look at Fed balance sheet the Fed balance sheet is down from 9 trillion to 6 and a half and now has bounced maybe a a couple hundred

billion. Um, and it's hard for me to

billion. Um, and it's hard for me to argue that we're seeing huge liquidity coming in that's inflationary. I think

they they did uh start moving the other way just because the banking system required more liquidity. Um, I am not in the camp that thinks this is an

inflationary spurt that we're going to see this that it has legs. I think I think you can get for a month or two or three an uptick, but I think the trend

in inflation is still down. And I still, as crazy as may sound, I still think deflation is the risk here, not inflation. So I believe you'll see as a

inflation. So I believe you'll see as a you know, a lot obviously we can sit here and talk all day long if we want to ignore Iran, but a lot depends on what

goes on in Iran, you know. So, I can I can say all I want about I expect inflation to trend down. If things go badly in Iran and I'm wrong that this thing doesn't get resolved in the next

month um or few, you know, several weeks, um yeah, inflation, oil can go a lot higher. Inflation could become a

lot higher. Inflation could become a bigger problem. It will ultimately cause

bigger problem. It will ultimately cause a recession and it'll go right back down the other way. But for several months, it could get messy. So, but my my gut is

that we're going to or my guess is based on my expectations that we're going to see inflation um not tick up to a level that's a real problem for the bond market or the stock

market. I think it'll stay in this range

market. I think it'll stay in this range until it rolls over. I think it could roll over this summer and head for, you know, ultimately 3% maybe two and a half

and then in the in the bust from there down to zero on, you know, talk about 10 year.

Yeah, I was going to say that works really well with your with your 0% call on on the 10ear on the yields. Yeah,

like I said, I think if we get a global bust, um, and it's what I'm calling for.

Um, we will have deflation for a small period of time, you know, during that bust. Uh, not not immediately, but later

bust. Uh, not not immediately, but later in the bust, I think you'll see oil could fall to $30. Um, commodity prices

could all tumble pretty hard. Um, you

know, you're going to have a a a pretty deep recession and a credit crisis. And

I think that takes inflation into negative territory.

Let's talk about commodity prices. I'm

I'm I'm curious before maybe not not so serious question first. Have you done any victory dances? Any Have you taken your victory lap on on your gold calls yet David?

Well, let's put it this way, and it's probably a good time to talk about um where I'm at because it has changed so much from last time we talked. You know,

my um I raised my uh gold target to 5,500 I think in January. my January letter. Um,

and that came out obviously before the big run up in January. I raised my uh silver to 125. Now, silver went to 122

before it went directly south and got cut in half. Uh, gold went to 55, I think 5,500 and rolled over and went to, you know, 4,100.

um during that decline and I basically called that decline not didn't expect 50% out of silver but uh I was on a podcast that week when silver had spiked

and I said this is you know it's gone parabolic in the short run you could see a 30 40 30 35% correction well we got 50

um during that correction because it came down so hard I revised my targets up which is as a contrarian sentiment means a lot to and everybody got so bearish with that rollover. Um, I raised

my silver target to my current level, which is 180. So, I'm looking for 180 on silver and my gold target to 6,800.

So, big revisions from, you know, when we talked, I think you said uh my silver target was still 75 and my gold target was probably 4,000. Yeah.

So, yeah, exactly. Um, so I think there is

yeah, exactly. Um, so I think there is another big leg up and we'll be parabolic. You another steep leg up. I

parabolic. You another steep leg up. I

we could be there this summer. Doesn't

have to happen this, you know, all of it happened this summer. You could spill into the fall, but but I do expect another big run. You know, obviously

this week I'm not too thinking too many people are singing my praises because, you know, the miners are getting hit, the gold and silver are getting hit, there's all the gloom and doom about

Iran and oil prices. Um, and there's a lot of talk that silver's going back into the 50s into low 50s and gold's

going down below 4,000. Um, I don't buy either one of those. I think we are in a bottoming uh place this week. You know, it's the end of the month.

If you look, you know, there were lower levels in in March. Uh, we rallied and what's got everybody so bearish is we rolled back over. But I think if you

look at it, it's it's likely the end of the month uh kind of squaring of positions um and people going with the momentum.

My guess is May and June will be very big reversal months.

What's driving that? Just the sentiment change completely. I'm just curious

change completely. I'm just curious maybe summarizing what you mentioned before just looking for those triggers because you you said um inflation maybe or even the Fed interest rate might they

might cut but only later this year um when they see inflation coming down to to your three to 2% here. Um so I'm curious like just on timing here David like maybe to summarize what's the

trigger? Sorry. So, I've I've said

trigger? Sorry. So, I've I've said forever that I don't worry so much about whether the Fed's cutting or not because the bond market will determine rates.

And I do think rates are coming down this summer, probably even this quarter.

You'll see a roll. You know, I think we're very close. It's everything's kind of tied together. You know, the the rates are are going through a backup here. Um, you know, the minor the metals

here. Um, you know, the minor the metals are going through a backup here. you

know, the equity markets have have not backed up much, but um you know, they're kind of um trading in a range, waiting, you know, still a little nervous about

Iran. So, all of it's tied together, I

Iran. So, all of it's tied together, I think, than tied to Iran. But if I'm right that Iran gets resolved one way or the other here, short-term, you know, either we get an agreement or they push

harder and have to, you know, have to do some more military stuff before they finally bring them to the table and get what they need. Um, I don't think it's going to last more than weeks, you know,

maybe another month at the longest. Um,

you know, there's lots of people that disagree with that, but that's where I'm coming from. Um, and therefore, I think

coming from. Um, and therefore, I think rates and, you know, rates will roll over, metals will rally, the stock market will rally. Um, it's not so much

dependent on the Fed. And of course, we have Kevin Worsh coming in probably. I

think he gets confirmed. Um,

should happen any minute now. So

yeah, so I would guess he gets through today, but if not, I think he will get through. He's he's the right man for the

through. He's he's the right man for the job. He's got a lot of experience. What

job. He's got a lot of experience. What

I like about him more than anything else is he's he's a monetary economist. He's,

you know, he's steeped in monetary economics and understands monetary.

That's why people get caught up in are you going to be a, you know, are you going to follow um whatever Trump demands and cut rates? And you seem, you know, just like uh Senator Warm called

him a sock puppet because he he got, you know, he he got picked by Trump and they assume he's going to do whatever Trump wants. And he's also, you know, had a

wants. And he's also, you know, had a narrative out there recently where he said rates should come down. But people

don't understand he's also a hawk in terms of wanting to shrink the balance sheet. And you can have both. You can

sheet. And you can have both. You can

see rates coming down and the balance sheet being uh reduced. I think it's going to be a problem because we're moving towards a bust. Um, and I think ultimately it'll get he may he may think

he's going to cut the balance sheet. My

guess is in response to the I'm jumping around here, but in response to the global bust, you could see as much as 20 trillion or more come out in in increase

in the Fed's balance sheet. That means,

you know, from that 9 trillion, you could go to 30 trillion. Obviously from

6.5 trillion or 7 trillion it's even a bigger number. Um that's not that would

bigger number. Um that's not that would not be something Kevin Worsh would would tell you he wants to do or he thinks would ever happen. But when you're in the midst of a freef falling financial

system which is what a bust is what I'm calling for what I mean by a bust. When

you're in the midst of a freef falling financial system around the globe you can't sit there and say I want you know my long-term goal is to get balance sheet down and I'm not changing that.

You're going to have the only thing that can respond to something happening that fast is money. It can't be fiscal. It's

they'll do fiscal things too, but you will see money coming out of every central bank if I'm right about a bust to to a tune that we didn't see even in

20089 much bigger to the tune of what we didn't see in you know we had 5 trillion come out or expand in the balance sheet in 2020. This one's going to be four

in 2020. This one's going to be four times that in my opinion. Again, that's

a just a guess uh seat of the pants guess, but that's what I think is coming. So, it really, you know, we all

coming. So, it really, you know, we all get caught up in who should be Fed chairman, what's his policy, what, you know, what's Trump think of him and what have you. Ultimately, macro is going to

have you. Ultimately, macro is going to trump all of that. No, no pun intended.

And the macro is going to dictate policy. And so it really whether Powell

policy. And so it really whether Powell was there or Worsh was there or Bernanki was there uh or Janet Yellen was there ultimately it would be the same

response. Maybe different timing. One

response. Maybe different timing. One

might drag their feet more. Wars is

likely to drag his feet more which which is problematic short term uh when that happens. Um because it's going to

happens. Um because it's going to require a you know very big and quick response. Um, and I'm not saying you

response. Um, and I'm not saying you won't print money when it's needed. What

will happen is I think let's just put a scenario out there where we start, you know, we're in a recession, we start seeing things tipping over. They might

say we're going to put a trillion in.

you know, we need to um but we we you know, even Powell has said over repeatedly over the last several years that he would not repeat the mistakes of

the last cycle, meaning you know, zero interest rate policy, big money printing. Um he said that I think Wars

printing. Um he said that I think Wars would double down on that. Um and yet when you see the system needs liquidity, they will provide it. So they might

start slow and say a trillion. Imagine a

trillion slow now. Um but ultimately to get to a right size policy which maybe 20 trillion. Um they're not going to get

20 trillion. Um they're not going to get there in one step or two steps. It'll be

when they finally dear in the headlights say, "Oh my god, this thing's really sinking." Then you'll see a lot of money

sinking." Then you'll see a lot of money come out in a hurry. kind of, you know, we saw it in 2020, you know, 2020 when when they realized they shut the whole world economy down and they realized

they needed to do something. The, you

know, bond market that was problematic.

You know, we were seeing credit problems and they came in. It didn't take them long then. I think because of what they

long then. I think because of what they did in 20089 and because of what they did in 2020 this time around part of my scenario for the bus is they're going to

be much more reluctant to do it and in that time of pausing or trying to figure out what to do or being reluctant is when this thing can really get out of hand and then they have to do it. So

it's you know we'll see whether that all plays out but that's basically been my scenario remains my scenario.

No I appreciate you sharing that. It was

really really insightful there because we we'll we'll have some news hopefully within the next three and a half hours here to see where where we stand and whether Jerome Powell steps down at the press conference. So we'll

press conference. So we'll right for the sake of for the sake of calmness. I hope he he says I've had

calmness. I hope he he says I've had enough. You know I I did my job and I

enough. You know I I did my job and I think I want to enjoy my retirement. You

know exactly I'm out of here. But, you know, again, there's there's still, I think, a uh congressional investigation, so he

may he may not step down so quickly.

No, I think he wants to or some some members want to get that resolved before it all happens, right? But I think that the the Republican senator dropped his objection to Kevin Borch at least based on that. Um, but we're getting too

on that. Um, but we're getting too detailed here, David. Um, I do have one last question. We're already way over

last question. We're already way over our time here, but one last question.

I'm I'm curious. Um, and it's not financial advice. So, um, but I'm

financial advice. So, um, but I'm curious, if you were to find a million dollars underneath, uh, your your couch cushion tomorrow, um, how would you allocate that money given what we just discussed?

Yeah, that really is advice. I can't do that, but I think my forecast tells you where where I am, and people can kind of use it whatever way they want as

guidance. But, you know, an S&P to 9500

guidance. But, you know, an S&P to 9500 from here and then in the bust possibly an 80% uh bare market tells you we're in the last stages and

you need to be aware. You're not going to call the top perfectly. I'm not going to. Uh so, no, you know, it's just not

to. Uh so, no, you know, it's just not realistic to think you can get in and get out at the very top. So you have to

be a bit uh wary that we are in the 43rd year of a secular bull market that turns 44 in August.

Um that means this thing's getting old in the tooth and we are up here. Now

that I just to kind of look at the other side of that though if I'm right that we're you know going to 9500 that's

another 30% from here. So uh and you know the Russell probably another almost 40% from here. So you are in a situation where even though it all might happen by

this summer uh so it's only a few months away the top um you have what would normally be two or three years worth of returns still in the market here. So, I

just caution people, don't don't get too um bearish too quick because you're probably going to then get caught up in the the bullish narrative that will be there at the top because I can guarantee

you when I'm starting to say exit stage left, the majority out there are going to be saying this thing has years to run, you know, get in. So, it's not

going to be an easy thing to sell at the top. Um I just kind of that'd be my

top. Um I just kind of that'd be my response to your question.

No, it does. really appreciate that.

It's it's it's a tough one to answer, but I think you've done it perfectly.

So, really appreciate that, David. Um

really enjoyed the conversation as always. Can't wait to have you back. Not

always. Can't wait to have you back. Not

sure we we should wait another six months to do it. So,

I think there's going to be a lot happening between now and Labor Day, let's say.

Exactly. And I'll be around this summer.

So, uh let's do it. I'm really looking forward to already. David, in the meantime, where can we send our audience to follow more of your work?

Um I am on X every day. Uh my generally my communication there is by replies to questions and comments. Um not so much original post in fact rarely original

posts. So people just have to make sure

posts. So people just have to make sure their settings are set up so that they can uh see replies. Um and I also

publish a quarterly uh investment letter that is all macrobased um and it's by subscription. So if

people are interested and that means it comes at a price. If people are interested in details um they can send a uh X chat to me. You know what used to

be direct message now is X chat uh asking for uh information on the on the letter and I'll I'll provide that.

Fantastic. No, tremendously appreciate that, David. Thank you so much for

that, David. Thank you so much for coming on. It's always a pleasure to

coming on. It's always a pleasure to speak with you. Uh can't wait to do this again. So lot as you said lots going on.

again. So lot as you said lots going on.

Let's let's stay on top of things. So,

and we'll see in 3 hours maybe everything's different.

So, awesome. David, thank you so much. And

awesome. David, thank you so much. And

to everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in to Soar Financially. A

wonderful discussion here with David Hunter. If you enjoyed this

Hunter. If you enjoyed this conversation, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out

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