Oil Rises as Attacks Continue in Middle East; CPI on Deck | Bloomberg Brief 3/11/2026

>> 5:00 A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY.

I AM JULIE FINE AND FOR VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.

CRUDE CLIMBS AS MILITARY STRIKES CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THE WORLD RUSHES TO SHIELD OIL FLOW WITH IEA TO

EAST. THE WORLD RUSHES TO SHIELD OIL FLOW WITH IEA TO PROPOSE THE LARGEST EVER RELEASE OF RESERVES.

ALL OF THAT AS STOCK FUTURES WAIVER AHEAD OF THE LATEST CPI DATA. HERE'S MIKE MCKEE.

DATA. HERE'S MIKE MCKEE.

MICHAEL: IT IS ANTICIPATED NEWS ACROSS THE WORLD WITH FEATURES MIXED AS WE GO INTO TRADING ON THIS CONTINENT.

WITH THE NEWS COMING OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RELEASES OF OIL.

COMMENTS FROM THE ECB ABOUT MAY BE RIGHT -- RATE HIKES BECAUSE OF THIS.

THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE BOND MARKET.

RIGHT NOW PEOPLE ARE PRICING OUT THE IDEA OF ANY RATE CUTS IN THIS CALENDAR YEAR. CONCERNS ABOUT INFLATION ARE GROWING HERE. THE FT REPORTING JP MORGAN IS

GROWING HERE. THE FT REPORTING JP MORGAN IS RESTRICTING LENDING TO SOME PRIVATE CREDIT FUNDS HAS SOME ON THE EQUITY SIDE CONCERNED. ONE COMMODITY TO RULE THEM ALL.

THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE RELEASES NOT HELPING AT THIS POINT. OIL PRICES ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING BACK UP TO $90 FOR BOTH ON THE NEWS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF THE RELEASES AND SOME NEWS THAT WE HAD SEEN SOME SHIPS MAY

BE FIRED ON IN THE GULF. JULIE: SOME STOCKS TO WATCH HERE.

ABEER: GOOD MORNING. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST STORY OF THE DAY THAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR IS ORACLE WITH EARNINGS THAT WERE POSTED YESTERDAY. THE STOCK JUMPED IN THE POST-MARKET ADDING TO THOSE GAINS FROM YESTERDAY, JUMPING AROUND 10% IN THE PRE-TRADE THIS MORNING.

PERHAPS THE TWO BIGGEST THINGS ABOUT ORACLE'S EARNINGS ARE DEMAND FOR AI COMPUTING IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF LETTING UP, SO THAT'S A POSITIVE STORY FOR ORACLE.

WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE INFRASTRUCTURE BUSINESS AT ORACLE, THAT HAS SHOWN INCREDIBLE REVENUE OVER THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF THE FISCAL YEAR, UP 80%.

POSITIVE NEWS FOR ORACLE. INVESTORS ARE PILING ONTO THE STOCK. STILL UP IN THE PRETRADE SESSION.

STOCK. STILL UP IN THE PRETRADE SESSION.

WE CHANGE INDUSTRIES A LITTLE AND WE LOOK AT GROUPON, THAT IS NOT DOING AS WELL THIS MORNING. DOWN ABOUT 10% THIS MORNING ALSO ON THE BACK OF EARNINGS. TODAY IS EARNINGS STORIES WE ARE FOCUSING ON AND GROUPON'S OUTLOOK WAS NOT GOOD FOR THE COMING YEAR. AHEAD OF EARNINGS GROUPON WAS

COMING YEAR. AHEAD OF EARNINGS GROUPON WAS AMONG THE MOST SHORTED STOCKS AMONG SMALL CAPS, AND THAT REFLECTED IN YESTERDAY'S AND THE STOCK TODAY DOWN 10%.

FINALLY, ALREADY TRADING IN EUROPE THIS MORNING, INDITEX.

THE LARGEST LISTED CLOTHING OUTLET.

IT IS UP 1.7 5%, ALMOST 2%. CARRYING SOME GAINS FROM EARLIER IN THE EUROPEAN TRADE SESSION BUT DOING PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING. THAT'S ON THE BACK OF SOME

THIS MORNING. THAT'S ON THE BACK OF SOME REALLY GOOD DEMAND INDITEX HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH MIDDLE EAST OPERATIONS CONTINUING, MIGHT I ADD.

INDITEX IS DOING QUITE WELL THIS MORNING. JULIE:

COMING UP THIS HOUR, WE WILL COUNT TO THE INFLATION PRINT WITH PAUL DONOVAN OF UBS. A CLOSER LOOK AT ORACLE RESULTS WITH THE JOE KALINA OF WEDBUSH SECURITIES.

CRUDE RISING AGAIN AS ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST SOURCES SAY THAT THE IEA IS SUGGESTING THE LARGEST EVER RELEASE OF OIL RESERVES. G7 LEADERS ALSO SAID TO ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE WAR WITH IRAN ON THE ECONOMY. LET'S GET TO TEAM COVERAGE WITH ANTHONY DIPAOLA AND JOUMANNA BERCETCHE AND KATE ACKLEY OF

BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT IN WASHINGTON.

ANTHONY IF THE IEA RELEASES 132 BARRELS OF OIL HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT DO YOU THINK THAT WOULD HAVE? ANTHONY: GOOD MORNING.

THAT WOULD BE A HUGE RELEASE. WE ARE POTENTIALLY LOOKING AT THE BIGGEST RELEASE BY IEA MEMBER COUNTRIES EVER IN ORDER TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.

IT'S GOING TO BE A SHORT-TERM SOLUTION BECAUSE THE STOCKPILES -- OIL AND STORAGE OF THEY CAN RELEASE ONCE.

ONCE THEY'VE USED IT ANYMORE -- ONCE THEY'VE USED THAT THEY DON'T HAVE IT ANYMORE. THEY CAN PHASE OUT RELEASES TO SEE HOW THE MARKET REACTS AND HOW SUPPLY GOES.

IT DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ REMAINS CLOSED. WE DO STILL HAVE OIL ON THE

CLOSED. WE DO STILL HAVE OIL ON THE WATER THAT WAS EXPORTED BEFORE THE WAR STARTED, BEFORE THE STRAIT WAS CLOSED. THAT IS STILL GOING TO REFINERS.

WE NEED TO PLUG THE HOLES THAT THE REFINERS AND CUSTOMERS ARE HAVING IN THEIR SUPPLY NOW BECAUSE TANKERS ARE STUCK INSIDE THE PERSIAN GULF FILLED WITH OIL OR OUTSIDE AND CANNOT GET INTO LOAD. WE NEED TO TAKE CARE OF THE SHORTFALL IN THE MARKET AND THAT WILL GIVE MARKETS A LITTLE MORE TIME TO REACT AND ADJUST. THE REASON WE ARE SEEING PRICES

FALLING BACK FROM OVER 100 EARLIER THIS WEEK IS BECAUSE OF THE IDEA THAT TRADERS AND INVESTORS ARE LOOKING AT THE MARKET NOT YET SEEING SERIOUS DAMAGE INSIDE THE GULF AND WAITING TO SEE WHEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ COULD BE REOPENED AND OIL COULD START FLOWING OUT OF THE GULF AGAIN.

THIS BUYS MORE TIME, THE IEA/G7 DECISION TO RELEASE STOCKPILES.

JULIE: THE IEA PROPOSED OIL STOCK FILE RELEASED 400 TO 700 MILLION BARRELS BREAKING ON OUR TERMINAL. I WANT TO GET YOUR QUICK

TERMINAL. I WANT TO GET YOUR QUICK REACTION TO THAT. ANTHONY: THAT IS A HUGE AMOUNT.

THAT'S ABOUT THREE TIMES THE DAILY DEMAND FOR OIL IN THE MARKET. THE AMOUNT THAT IS BEING REDUCED IS MUCH LESS.

MARKET. THE AMOUNT THAT IS BEING REDUCED IS MUCH LESS.

WE HAVE 20 MILLION BARRELS A DAY THAT USUALLY GOES OUT FROM THE STRATA FORM IS. WE ARE PROBABLY -- FROM THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT SIX OR SEVEN OF EXPORTS COMING OUT. ROUGHLY 13 MILLION BARREL HOLE TO FILL. WE ARE LOOKING AT A MONTH OR SO

TO FILL. WE ARE LOOKING AT A MONTH OR SO OF SUPPLY THAT THE IEA WOULD COVER.

THAT GIVES US A GOOD BIT OF TIME THAT THE IEA RELEASE WOULD COVER. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME FOR GOVERNMENTS TO TRY TO GET A

COVER. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME FOR GOVERNMENTS TO TRY TO GET A SOLUTION TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND GET SOME MORE OF THOSE THINKERS FLOWING. JULIE: KATE, ON THE OIL FRONT THERE WAS MIXED MESSAGING FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

PRESIDENT TRUMP POSTING ABOUT A NEW REFINERY IN TEXAS AS AMERICANS ARE PAYING, FRANKLY, MORE FOR GAS AT THE PUMP RIGHT NOW.

WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO THAT AND HOW WILL THAT AFFECT PEOPLE WHEN THEY SEE BOTH OF THOSE? KATE: THIS IS HAPPENING IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS THAT WE ARE GEARING UP FOR THIS YEAR. WE ARE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES WITH PRIMARIES. THERE WERE PRIMARIES LAST NIGHT

WITH PRIMARIES. THERE WERE PRIMARIES LAST NIGHT AND A SPECIAL ELECTION WHERE AFFORDABILITY IS A KEY ISSUE IN THESE CAMPAIGNS. DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE

THESE CAMPAIGNS. DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE TALKING ABOUT AFFORDABILITY.

THERE IS NOTHING THAT AMERICANS FEEL LIKE RISING PRICES AT THE GAS PUMP. YOU SEE THAT CLEARLY WHEN

GAS PUMP. YOU SEE THAT CLEARLY WHEN PRICES GO UP.

AS ANTHONY WAS TALKING ABOUT, THESE IMPORTANT TEMPERING MEASURES THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP AND OTHERS ARE TRYING TO MAKE TO BRING THOSE PRICES DOWN TO BUY TIME, TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. JULIE:

WHAT IS THE LATEST ON THE GROUND RIGHT NOW? JOUMANNA:

IT IS DAY 12 OF THE WAR WITH NO SIGNS OF THINGS LETTING UP.

WE HEARD FROM PETE HEGSETH OVERNIGHT.

HE SIGNALED THAT TUESDAY WAS THE MOST INTENSE DAY OF AIR STRIKES SINCE THIS WAR BEGAN. THESE ARE JOINT OPERATIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND ISRAEL. OVERNIGHT, MORE BLASTS AROUND CENTRAL TEHRAN. THE AIRPORT, TOO.

CENTRAL TEHRAN. THE AIRPORT, TOO.

IRAN SIGNALING THAT THEY ARE NOT GOING TO LET UP ANYTIME SOON. THE MESSAGING THAT CAME THROUGH

SOON. THE MESSAGING THAT CAME THROUGH FROM KEY FIGUREHEADS IN THE REGIME SUGGESTING THAT THEY HAVE NO INTENTION OF SIGNING A CEASE-FIRE, NO INTENTION OF NEGOTIATING. THEY CONTINUED TO FIRE

NEGOTIATING. THEY CONTINUED TO FIRE PROJECTILES TOWARDS GULF STATES. SIRENS CONTINUE TO GO OFF IN BAHRAIN. QATAR INTERCEPTING SOME PROJECTILES.

BAHRAIN. QATAR INTERCEPTING SOME PROJECTILES.

IN THE UAE WE WERE AWOKEN BY AN ALERT ALERTING US TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MISSILE ATTACKS AS WELL.

A SHORT WHILE AGO A DRONE WAS INTERCEPTED NEAR DUBAI AIRPORT.

THIS UNDERSCORES THAT WE ARE IN THE THICK OF THE WAR, EVEN THOUGH YESTERDAY PRESIDENT TRUMP SUGGESTED MAYBE THINGS WERE LOOKING TO WIND DOWN WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND.

A NEW MARITIME FRONT HAS OPENED UP, TOO. U.S.

CENTRAL COMMAND CONFIRMING THEY TOOK DOWN MORE THAN A DOZEN, 16, IRANIAN VESSELS PERCEIVED TO BE HOLDING SOME OF THESE MINDS OR EXPLOSIVE -- MINES OR EXPLOSIVE DEVICES THAT COULD HAVE GONE OFF THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. OBVIOUSLY PAYING A LOT OF ATTENTION TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRYING TO GET VESSELS FLOWING THROUGH IT, BUT I THINK THERE REMAINS A VERY HIGH LEVEL

OF SECURITY RISK AROUND CROSSING IT.

NOT LEAST BECAUSE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE'VE HEARD OF THREE VESSELS THAT HAVE BEEN DAMAGED BY PROJECTILES EXPLODING OVER THE SHIPS AND CAUSING LIMITED DAMAGE, BUT STILL UNDERSCORES THE SECURITY RISK FOR ANY TINKERER OR VESSEL LOOKING TO CROSS THROUGH THE STRAIT. JULIE:

THE MINES AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PRESIDENT TRUMP WARNED IRAN AGAINST LAYING MINES THERE. KATE: THE MIXED MESSAGING.

LAST NIGHT ON SOCIAL MEDIA PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS SAYING THERE WERE NO U.S. REPORTS OF MINES BEING PLACED THERE. HE POSTED LATER URGING IRAN TO

THERE. HE POSTED LATER URGING IRAN TO REMOVE ANY EXPLOSIVES THAT MAY HAVE BEEN PLACED THERE.

A LOT OF MIXED MESSAGING, A LOT TO SORT THROUGH.

WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON, WHAT IS THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND?

VERY VOLATILE RIGHT NOW, INCLUDING FOR THESE OIL MARKETS.

JULIE: THANKS TO ANTHONY DEPAULO, JOUMANNA BERCETCHE, AND KATE ACKLEY.

ALMOST TWO WEEKS SINCE THE WAR BEGAN. THE U.S.

MILITARY HAS BEEN FORCED TO DIG DEEP INTO HARD TO REPLACE INTERCEPTORS TO COUNTER THE IRANIAN GARAGE.

JEREMY DOYLE JOINS US NOW. HOW HAS THIS FIGHT OR IRAN AS AN ADVERSARY BEEN DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS WARS THE U.S.

HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN?

>> IRAN PROVED A MUCH DIFFERENT ADVERSARY THAN ANY OF THE U.S.

HAS CONFRONTED BEFORE. MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE LARGE STOCKPILES OF BALLISTIC MISSILES AND DRONES.

IT IS ESSENTIALLY FIGHTING AN EXISTENTIAL WORK, WHICH THE U.S.

HAS NOT REALLY ENCOUNTERED BEFORE.

THE LONG RANGE WEAPONS THAT IRAN HAD ALLOWED IT TO CONTINUE TO STRIKE AROUND THE REGION. THE DRONES IN PARTICULAR ARE EASY TO PRODUCE, CHEAP, PROBABLY ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW OF THEM EVEN BEFORE THE WAR STARTED.

THAT WILL ALLOW IRAN TO CONTINUE TO STRIKE TARGETS AROUND THE REGION AND CAUSE PAIN TO DISRUPT OIL AND INFRASTRUCTURE AND SHIPPING TRAFFIC FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

THAT PRESENTS A PROBLEM FOR THE U.S.

MILITARY WHICH IS NOT REALLY GEARED TOWARDS FIGHTING THAT TYPE OF WORK. WE HAVE SEEN AROUND THE REGION EXPENSIVE U.S. MILITARY RADAR HAS BEEN HIT.

EXPENSIVE U.S. MILITARY RADAR HAS BEEN HIT.

WE HAVE SEEN SOME TRAGIC DEATH AROUND THE REGION AS WELL.

IT IS PUTTING STRAIN ON STOCKPILES OF WEAPONS THAT THE U.S. GATHERED AND CREATED TO CREATE

U.S. GATHERED AND CREATED TO CREATE A HIGHER END ADVERSARY. IT IS NOT REALLY IN DANGER OF RUNNING OUT, PER SE, BUT IT IS AN OPPORTUNITY COST. ROBBING

PETER TO PAY PAUL. THE MUNITIONS MEANT FOR CHINA FOR FIGHTING A HIGH-END WAR IN A DIFFERENT SITUATION ARE BEING USED AGAINST IRAN BECAUSE THE U.S. NEEDS TO. JULIE:

IS THE U.S. RUNNING OUT OF WEAPONS?

WHAT ABOUT IRAN? GARRY:

IRAN, CONVENTIONAL MILITARY AS LARGE DESTROYED ALREADY.

A HUGE VOLUME OF AIRSTRIKES HAVE SUNK THE NAVY, DESTROYED A LOT OF THE COMMAND-AND-CONTROL INFRASTRUCTURE.

IT'S ABILITY TO FIGHT ON EVEN TERMS WITH THE U.S.

MILITARY, WHICH WERE PRETTY MINIMAL TO BEGIN WITH, ARE NOW COMPLETELY GONE. IT'S LEFT WITH MISSILES AND

COMPLETELY GONE. IT'S LEFT WITH MISSILES AND MINE AND FIRE MISSILES INTO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THAT'S IRAN TRUMP CARD, AS IT WERE.

THEY CAN ESCALATE THE SITUATION TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE GLOBAL ECONOMY BY MINING THE STRAIT. CLEARING THOSE WOULD BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE IT IS SO NARROW, IT IS BASICALLY A SHOOTING GALLERY. IRAN CAN CONTINUE THE WAR EVEN

SHOOTING GALLERY. IRAN CAN CONTINUE THE WAR EVEN THOUGH IT HAS A LIMITED SUPPLY OF WEAPONS BECAUSE OF THE LEVERAGE THAT EXISTS OVER THE STRAIT. JULIE: THANK YOU.

OTHER TOP STORIES ON THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING.

ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER PETER CASIMIR SAYS THE IRAN WAR AND ITS IMPACT ON INFLATION MAY FORCE THE CENTRAL BANK TO RAISE INTEREST RATES SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

TRADERS ARE LEADING TOWARDS AN INTEREST RATE HIKE IN JUNE OR LATER. THE ECB MEETS NEXT WEEK. PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PICK FOR

LATER. THE ECB MEETS NEXT WEEK. PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PICK FOR FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR KEVIN WARSH DRAWS PRAISE FROM SENATOR THOM TILLIS. THOM TILLIS MET WITH KEVIN

THOM TILLIS. THOM TILLIS MET WITH KEVIN WARSH CALLING IT A GOOD MEETING BUT REITERATED HE WOULD BLOCK FOR NOMINATIONS UNTIL THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT CONTINUES ITS INVESTIGATION INTO JEROME POWELL.

NINTENDO SOARS SURGED 10%, THE STEEPEST CLIMB SINCE APRIL, AS THE NEW SUCCESS -- THE SURPRISE SUCCESS OF ITS NEW POKEMON GAME HELPED OFFSET WORRIES AROUND MEMORY COSTS.

COPIES OF POKEMON HAS SOLD OUT MAJOR RETAILERS IN THE U.S..

AMAZON HAS ALREADY RAISED THE PRICE TO AROUND $80.

ORACLE CLIMBING IN PREMARKET AFTER EARNINGS. MORE ON THAT.

BLOOMBERG. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

♪ JULIE: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF. JULIE FINE IN NEW YORK.

ORACLE EXTENDING POST EARNINGS GAINS AFTER RESULTS SHOWED CLOUT SALES BOOSTING ITS OUTLOOK FOR MORE.

IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU. WHAT STUCK OUT TO YOU IN THAT REPORT? THAT:

REPORT? THAT: THE THING THAT STICKS OUT MOST IS THE REASSURANCE ON THE CAPITAL SPENDING. THEY ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A

CAPITAL SPENDING. THEY ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A $50 MILLION INVESTMENT IN THE FISCAL YEAR.

SOME WORRIES THAT THAT NUMBER WOULD CREEP UP A BIT GIVEN THE RECENT PRINTS FROM BIG TECH RIVALS, SUCH AS AMAZON AND META.

ALIGNED WITH THAT WE HAD BETTER THAN EXPECTED REVENUE IN THE Q3 THEY REPORTED AND AN UPGRADED OUTLOOK FOR THE FULL REVENUE GUIDE. LOOKING FOR ABOUT $90 BILLION

GUIDE. LOOKING FOR ABOUT $90 BILLION IN REVENUE.

THE CONSENSUS WAS ABOUT $85 BILLION, 86 BILLION DOLLARS.

OPERATIONALLY, THINGS ARE GOING WELL WITH NO UPSIDE RISK TO CAPEX. ONE OF THE OTHER QUESTIONS

CAPEX. ONE OF THE OTHER QUESTIONS PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WORRIED ABOUT RECENTLY, NOT JUST WITH ORACLE BUT THE BROADER SOFTWARE SPACE COME IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH AI IS GOING TO DISPLACE THESE COMPANIES.

SOME CONFIDENT STATEMENTS FROM THE COMPANY YESTERDAY THAT THEY DIDN'T SEE MUCH EXPOSURE. IF ANYTHING, AI FOR THEM IS AN ENHANCEMENT TO THEIR BUSINESS. THEY ARE USING AI CODING TOOLS TO ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SOFTWARE, WHICH IS REDUCING THE HEADCOUNT NEEDS, WHICH LINKED TO NEWS WE HEARD

LAST WEEK ABOUT A RESTRUCTURING PROGRAM THEY'VE GOT IN PLACE.

JULIE: THE COMPANY SAYING TOTAL REVENUE WILL REACH $90 BILLION IN THE FISCAL YEAR BEGINNING IN JUNE, THAT BEATS ESTIMATES AS WELL. MATTHEW: IT DOES.

WELL. MATTHEW: IT DOES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THERE IS EXCESS DEMAND OVERSUPPLY IN TERMS OF THE AI SPACE. ENTERPRISES ARE STILL SHIFTING FROM A PILOT PHASE INTO A FULL DEPLOYMENT PHASE, SO DEMAND FOR AI TOOLS AND DATA CENTER CAPACITY IS DEFINITELY ON THE INCREASE. THAT'S DEFINITELY GOING TO

INCREASE. THAT'S DEFINITELY GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE A STORY FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS OR SO. JULIE:

COMING UP, JP MORGAN LIMITS PRIVATE CREDIT LENDING AFTER LOAN MARKDOWNS. MORE ON THAT NEXT.

LOAN MARKDOWNS. MORE ON THAT NEXT.

THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

JULIE: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF. I AM JULIE FINE IN NEW YORK.

FIRST UP ON THE WASHINGTON POST, DRAWN ASSAULT HIT A MAJOR U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITY IN IRAQ AND

U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITY IN IRAQ AND I SUSPECT A RETALIATION TO PRO-TEHRAN.

SIX WERE LAUNCHED TOWARDS THE COMPOUND FIVE WERE SHUT DOWN.

ONE HIT A FACILITY NEAR A GUARD TOWER.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RESEARCH THE GLOBAL ENTRY PROGRAM. IT STARTED AT 5:00 A.M.

NEW YORK TIME. IT WAS CAUSED DUE TO THE SHUTDOWN. GLOBAL ENTRY ALLOWS U.S.

SHUTDOWN. GLOBAL ENTRY ALLOWS U.S.

CITIZENS AND LEGAL PERMANENT RESIDENTS TRAVELING INTERNATIONALLY TO RECEIVE EXPEDITED PROCESSING UPON ENTERING THE U.S. THE FINANCIAL TIMES, THE LATEST SIGN OF STRESS AND PRIVATE CREDIT. JP MORGAN IS RESTRICTING LENDING TO PRIVATE CREDIT FUNDS. IT'LL PRIVATE CREDIT LENDERS AND MARKED DOWN THE VALUE OF THEIR CERTAIN ASSETS IN THEIR PORTFOLIOS. IT DEVALUED LOANS.

PORTFOLIOS. IT DEVALUED LOANS.

JOINING US FOR MORE IS BRUCE DOUGLAS.

WHY HAS JP MORGAN RESTRICTED LOANS TO THOSE PRIVATE CREDIT GROUPS?

BRUCE: THESE WERE LOANS TO SOFTWARE COMPANIES AND THEY HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THESE BUSINESS MODELS.

WE HAVE SEEN IN BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES, THE PUBLICLY TRADED PRIVATE CREDIT FUNDS THAT YOU SEE IN THE U.S.

AS INVESTORS FEAR THAT THESE LOANS ARE WORTH MUCH LESS THAN THEY WERE ORIGINALLY DUE TO THE ADVANCE OF AI.

JP MORGAN SAYS IT IS PREEMPTIVELY REMARKING SOME OF THESE LOANS WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF COLLATERAL AVAILABLE FOR THESE PRIVATE CREDIT GROUPS TO BORROW AGAINST. JULIE: PIMCO BLAMING SLOPPY

AGAINST. JULIE: PIMCO BLAMING SLOPPY UNDERWRITING. IS THERE A RECKONING GOING ON?

UNDERWRITING. IS THERE A RECKONING GOING ON?

BRUCE: PEMCO HAS BEEN A LONG-STANDING SKEPTIC OF PRIVATE CREDIT, BUT IT'S TRUE WE'VE SEEN A SUCCESSION OF EVENTS THAT ARE PUTTING JITTERS ACROSS THE PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET. WE HAVE SEEN REDEMPTIONS FROM A NUMBER OF RETAIL-ORIENTATED PRIVATE FUNDS STEADILY INCREASE

AND BREACHED THE THRESHOLD THAT LIMITS THE AMOUNT THAT CLIENTS CAN WITHDRAW FROM THESE FUNDS. THAT'S PARTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT PRIVATE CREDIT INVESTED VERY HEAVILY IN SOFTWARE, AND THAT SOFTWARE IS NOW A SECTOR THAT IS IN THE SPOT LIGHT.

IN THE RUSH TO DEPLOY A LOT OF THIS CAPITAL THAT HAS COME IN TO PRIVATE CREDIT THERE HAVE BEEN QUESTIONS RAISED ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE UNDERWRITING, ABOUT THE DUE DILIGENCE THAT HAS GONE ON BEHIND THE SCENES TO MAKE SURE THESE LOANS WERE WORTH WHAT THE COMPANIES SAID THEY WERE WORTH. JULIE:

BRUCE DOUGLAS, THANKS SO MUCH. WE WILL PUSH AHEAD TO THE CPI REPORT WITH PAUL DONOVAN OF UBS NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

♪ JULIE: IT IS 5:30 AM IN NEW YORK CITY, 9:30 IN LONDON, I AM JULIE FINE IN FOR VONNIE QUINN.

THE IEA PROPOSES A MASSIVE POLICE EMERGENCY OIL STOCKPILES, THE LARGEST EVER IN ITS HISTORY.

BUT CRUDE CLIMBS AGAIN AS THE MILITARY STRIKES CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THAT AS INVESTORS AWAIT THE LATEST CPI DATA. HERE IS MICHAEL MCKEE. MICHAEL:

DATA. HERE IS MICHAEL MCKEE. MICHAEL:

THE LARGE RELEASE OF OIL IS NOT HELPING MUCH IN THE MARKETS.

U.S. FUTURES ARE SOLIDLY IN THE RED AND HAVE BEEN SINCE 5:00 EASTERN.

EUROPE GETTING HIT EVEN HARDER. THERE ARE SOME COMMENTS FROM ECB OFFICIALS THIS MORNING SAYING THEY MIGHT NEED TO RAISE RATES BECAUSE OF OIL PRICES. NO TALK OF RAISING RATES IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT TRADERS ARE PRESSING OUT THE IDEA OF ANY RATE CUTS THIS YEAR. YIELDS A LITTLE HIGHER THIS MORNING ON TREASURIES, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT MOVING TOO MUCH AT THE MOMENT. AS JULIE MENTIONED, OIL PRICES

THE MOMENT. AS JULIE MENTIONED, OIL PRICES ARE SETTING THE TONE FOR THE DAY. WE HAVE OIL PRICES HIGHER DESPITE THE REPORTS OF THE IAEA RELEASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE AT THIS POINT THAT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO TURN THINGS AROUND FOR THE MOMENT AS PRICES HANG AROUND THE $90 MARK FOR NEW YORK CRUDE AND BRENT. JULIE:

FOR STOCKS TO WATCH, HERE IS A BUREAU -- ABEER ABU OMAR. ABEER:

WE'RE FOCUSED ON THE EARNINGS STORY.

ORACLE A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT. THEY POSTED EARNINGS YESTERDAY.

THE STOCK JUMPED IN THE POST-MARKET TRADE.

IT IS EXTENDING THOSE GAINS TO ABOUT 10% IN THE PRETRADE SESSION THIS MORNING. PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOST INTERESTING DETAILS IN THE EARNINGS OF ORACLE YESTERDAY AS WE ARE SEEING THE DEMAND FOR AI COMPUTING, STORAGE DEMAND, IS NOT REALLY LETTING UP. THAT WAS NET POSITIVE NEWS FOR ORACLE. IT IS WORKING WITH THE LIKES OF

ORACLE. IT IS WORKING WITH THE LIKES OF OPENAI AND META TO BUILD MASSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE OUTLETS.

IF A STRUCTURE IN THE BUSINESS OF ORACLE WAS ONE OF THE BUSINESSES THAT DELIVERED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY, AS WE SAW. A STOCK IN THE U.S. IN THE PRETRADE SESSION THAT'S

SAW. A STOCK IN THE U.S. IN THE PRETRADE SESSION THAT'S NOT DOING AS WELL IS GROUPON. AHEAD OF EARNINGS GROUPON WAS AMONG THE MOST SHORTED STOCKS IN SMALL CAPS, AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE SHARE PRICE THIS MORNING.

WE ARE SEEING IT DOWN OVER 10% IN THE PRETRADE SESSION.

THE OUTLOOK WAS NOT GREAT. THAT'S THE STORY IN GROUPON.

IN THE SAME SCENE BUT MOVING TO A DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHY AND DIFFERENT STOCK, INDITEX IS UP, PARING A LOT OF GAINS WE SAW IN THE EUROPEAN OPEN, UP ABOUT 1%. IT IS REFLECTIVE OF RESILIENCE IN THE INDITEX STORY, SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T SEEN IN ITS PEERS OVER THE EARNINGS PERIOD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS,

JULIE.

THE CEO DID SAY MAYBE BUSINESS IS DOING PRETTY WELL SO FAR DESPITE THE SITUATION THERE. THOSE ARE THE STOCKS WE ARE WATCHING, JULIE. JULIE:

WATCHING, JULIE. JULIE: JUST UNDER THREE HOURS UNTIL THE FEBRUARY INFLATION PRINT.

MICHAEL MCKEE IS BACK WITH US FOR A PREVIEW.

I'M CURIOUS WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR IN THIS REPORT.

WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL STICK OUT? MICHAEL:

WHAT WILL STICK OUT IS LITTLE CHANGE IN CPI REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WHICH SHOULD GIVE THE DOVES SOME COMFORT, BUT I DON'T THINK IT WILL TODAY BECAUSE CPI HAS A COUPLE PROBLEMS THIS MONTH.

WE WON'T SEE MUCH MOVEMENT ON A MONTH-TO-MONTH BASIS AND NO CHANGE FORECAST IN THE YEAR-OVER-YEAR FOR THE CORE OR HEADLINE. THE THING ABOUT THIS REPORT IS,

HEADLINE. THE THING ABOUT THIS REPORT IS, IT'S NOT GOING TO CAPTURE ANY OF THE WAR-RELATED PRICE CHANGES WE'VE SEEN BECAUSE THE WAR BEGAN ON MARCH 1.

HOUSING COSTS HAVE BEEN BIASED LOWER BY THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN SO THAT HAS PUT SOME WEIGHT ON THE CPI.

WE WILL BE WATCHING PRICES FOR GOODS TO SEE IF THERE IS A TARIFF EFFECT, PRICES FOR SERVICES, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IN TERMS OF INFLATION IS THE JANUARY PCE REPORT OUT FRIDAY.

THAT IS WHAT THE FED WILL BE WATCHING. JULIE:

LET'S BRING IN PAUL DONOVAN FOR THIS CONVERSATION.

I WANT TO PICK UP ON SOMETHING MICHAEL MCKEE SAID WHEN HE TALKED ABOUT THIS IS COMING OUT. THIS WAS DATA FROM BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN. PAUL:

WAR BEGAN. PAUL: THAT'S TRUE, BUT THAT'S STILL USEFUL INFORMATION.

CENTRAL BANKS ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO RESPOND JUST TO AN OIL PRICE MOVE. THEY HAVE TO CONSIDER WHAT IS

MOVE. THEY HAVE TO CONSIDER WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH INFLATION, PRICES ACROSS THE ECONOMY NOT JUST ONE PART OF IT.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE CAN DO ABOUT THE GLOBAL OIL PRICES. POWELL IS NOT GOING TO ORDER THE FOMC TO START SEARCHING FOR MINES AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THEY CAN BALANCE THE ECONOMY. I SUSPECT THIS REPORT WILL SHOW THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT IMBALANCES IN THE ECONOMY, THAT WE DON'T HAVE SIGNIFICANT UNDERLYING INFLATION PRESSURES, AND THAT WILL GIVE COVER TO THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND MEAN THEY WON'T OVERREACT TO AN OIL PRICE SPIKE. MICHAEL:

DO YOU THINK AT THIS POINT IT IS JUSTIFIED FOR MARKETS TO PRICE OUT ANY FED RATE MOVES FOR 2026? PAUL:

I THINK THAT IS UNREALISTIC, BECAUSE IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER OIL PRICES -- WE DON'T KNOW THAT'S THE CASE, BUT IF WE DO SEE THAT THE ONLY THING THAT WILL GET THE FED REALLY WORRIED ABOUT THAT IS IF THEY START TO SEE SECOND ROUND EFFECTS.

A WAGE PRICE SPIRAL, BUT MODERN LABOR MARKETS DON'T PRODUCE WAGE PRICE SPIRALS. THIS IS NOT THE 1970'S.

OR PROFIT-THAT INFLATION WHERE RETAILERS EXPAND MARGIN AND BLAME IT ON THE OIL PRICE. THAT IS PERHAPS MORE LIKELY.

WE HAVE PROFIT LED INFLATION IN 2023, 20 TO 24.

THE FED WOULD HAVE TO CARE ABOUT THAT.

OTHERWISE THE FED WOULD BE FOCUSED ON THE LABOR MARKET AND THE POSSIBLE NEGATIVE REACTION OF THE LABOR MARKET TO THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IS BEING CAUSED BY THIS CONFLICT.

AND THAT WOULD BE ACTUALLY A REASON TO CUT, NOT STAY NEUTRAL OR RAISE. MICHAEL: THE INTERESTING THING IS THE

OR RAISE. MICHAEL: THE INTERESTING THING IS THE FOCUS FOR THE ECB SEEMS TO BE GOING THE OTHER DIRECTION.

A LOT OF ECB TALK THIS MORNING ABOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH OVER THERE AND THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION.

WE HAVE ONE MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL, PETER KAZIMIR, SAYING THEY MIGHT HAVE TO HIKE RATES SOON. PAUL:

THE PROBLEM WITH THE ECB AS THERE ARE CERTAIN MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL WHO, NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS IN THE WORLD, WILL SAY IT'S AN EXCUSE TO RAISE RATES. YOU GUYS HAVE YOUR HAWKS AND DOVES AND WE HAVE UBER HAWKS IN EUROPE AND THEY TEND TO GO TO EXTREMES. I DON'T THINK THE ECB WILL DO

EXTREMES. I DON'T THINK THE ECB WILL DO ANYTHING. THE ECB IS GOOD AT DOING

ANYTHING. THE ECB IS GOOD AT DOING NOTHING. MASTERFUL AND ACTIVITY IS THE

NOTHING. MASTERFUL AND ACTIVITY IS THE ONE POLICY IT REALLY UNDERSTANDS HOW TO DO.

-- MASTERFUL INACTIVITY IS THE ONE POLICY IT REALLY UNDERSTANDS HOW TO DO. THE UNDERLYING INFLATION PRESSURES ARE VERY BENIGN, AND THE GROWTH STORY IN EUROPE IS PRETTY MUCH UNTRIMMED. CONSUMERS ARE SPENDING NICELY.

NO REAL IMBALANCES. ONE THING TO BEAR IN MIND WITH EUROPE IS IF WE GET A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER OIL PRICES, THAT MAY NOT BE INFLATIONARY FOR EUROPE.

IT MIGHT INSTEAD LEAD TO FISCAL POLICY STEPPING IN WITH PRICE CAPS AND PRICE LIMITS. ACTUALLY, FOR EUROPE, POSSIBLY, WE WILL SEE MORE OF THE BURDEN TAKEN BY FISCAL POLICY LAND BY THE INFLATION GROWTH STORIES. JULIE:

THIS COMES OUT FOLLOWING A WEAK JOBS REPORT IN FEBRUARY.

NONFARM PAYROLLS FELL 92,000. ONE OF THE LARGEST DECLINES SINCE THE PANDEMIC. PAUL: YES. I THINK THE LABOR MARKET IN THE STATES IS NOT AS BAD AS THE FEBRUARY NUMBERS SEEM. THE JOBS NUMBERS IN THE UNITED

SEEM. THE JOBS NUMBERS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE VERY UNRELIABLE. THE QUALITY IS NOT GREAT, FRANKLY. WE KNOW ROUGHLY LAST YEAR YOU

FRANKLY. WE KNOW ROUGHLY LAST YEAR YOU HAD A FLAT LABOR MARKET SITUATION.

WE ARE IN A NO HIRE, NO FIRE SITUATION.

THAT MEANS IF YOU HAVE A JOB YOU ARE CONFIDENT YOU ARE GOING TO KEEP YOUR JOB AND YOU WILL CARRY ON SPENDING.

IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A JOB, IT WILL BE TOUGH.

FROM AN ECONOMIC POINT OF VIEW, BUT I'M CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE MIDDLE INCOME, MIDDLE-AGED CONSUMER AND THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CARRY ON DRAWING DOWN ON THEIR SAVINGS RATE IN ORDER TO AFFORD THE SHOCKS WE'VE HAD.

LAST YEAR, U.S. HOUSEHOLD SAVING CAME DOWN, THE SAVINGS RATE CAME DOWN, AND THAT PAID FOR THE TARIFFS.

THIS YEAR, A FURTHER DECLINE IN THE SAVINGS RATE WILL PAY COME IN THE SHORT TERM, FOR HIGHER ENERGY COSTS.

THE FACT THAT GASOLINE PRICES ARE SKYROCKETING.

THAT WILL BE COVERED BY OUR SAVINGS RATE.

WE NEED THAT JOB SECURITY, WHICH I THINK THE U.S.

LABOR MARKET IS STILL PROVIDING, TO MAKE SURE THAT HAPPENS. MICHAEL: A TRIP AROUND THE WORLD BECAUSE

HAPPENS. MICHAEL: A TRIP AROUND THE WORLD BECAUSE WE HAVE OTHER CENTRAL BANKS COMING OUT WITH RATE DECISIONS, THE JAPANESE ARE THOUGHT TO BE THINKING OF THE RATE INCREASE BECAUSE INFLATION IS RISING THERE AND THEY HAVE THIS OIL SHOCK ON TOP OF THAT. THE FOLKS AT THE BANK OF ENGLAND ALSO CONSIDERING WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL TAKE

RATE CUTS OFF THE TABLE AND STAY WHERE THEY ARE OR MAYBE THINK ABOUT A RAISE DOWN THE ROAD. PAUL:

THE BANK OF JAPAN, I THINK THE BANK OF JAPAN ITSELF PROBABLY DOES WANT TO MOVE TO RAISE RATES.

NOT NECESSARILY FOR THE OIL REASON.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE REMEDIAL MEASURES, CUTS IN CONSUMPTION, PEOPLE TURNING OFF THEIR AIR CONDITIONING UNITS, THINGS LIKE THAT. I THINK THEY BELIEVE THE ECONOMY COULD FAVOR HIGHER

THAT. I THINK THEY BELIEVE THE ECONOMY COULD FAVOR HIGHER RATES. THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT SO ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THAT.

RATES. THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT SO ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THAT.

THE BANK OF JAPAN IS FRANKLY NOT INDEPENDENT.

IN THAT CIRCUMSTANCE A RATE HIKE IS PLAUSIBLE, BUT NOT RIGHT NOW. I THINK THIS WILL BE SOMETHING

RIGHT NOW. I THINK THIS WILL BE SOMETHING PUSHED OUT LATER THIS YEAR. THE BANK OF ENGLAND I THINK WE'LL BE MOVING TOWARDS RATE CUTS. THE UNDERLYING INFLATION PRESSURES IN THE U.K. ARE WEAKENING. THE U.K.

HAS A PROBLEM WITH THE PECULIAR WAY THE GOVERNMENT SETS ELECTRICITY PRICING IN THE U.K.. THERE IS DISCUSSION ABOUT POSSIBLY CHANGING THAT, WHICH WOULD BE DISINFLATIONARY.

WE HAVE OTHER FORCES COMING THROUGH LIKELY TO LOWER THE HEADLINE INFLATION RATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE COMING WEEKS AND MONTHS. I THINK THE BANK OF ENGLAND

AND MONTHS. I THINK THE BANK OF ENGLAND WILL STILL BE BIASED TO BE EASING AS THEY LOOK AHEAD THIS YEAR. JULIE: THANKS TO PAUL DONOVAN OF UBS.

YEAR. JULIE: THANKS TO PAUL DONOVAN OF UBS.

OTHER TOP STORIES ON THE TERMINAL.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IS PROPOSING A RELEASE OF EMERGENCY OIL RESERVES COME THE LARGEST EVER IN ITS HISTORY.

THE IEA HAS SUGGESTED A RELEASE IN THE RANGE OF 300 MILLION TO 400 MILLION BARRELS. THAT DECISION COULD COME LATER TODAY. THE U.K. NAVY SINCE THREE VESSELS WERE

TODAY. THE U.K. NAVY SINCE THREE VESSELS WERE HIT WITH SUSPECTED PROJECTILES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND PERSIAN GULF. THE TARGETS, NONE OF WHICH WERE

PERSIAN GULF. THE TARGETS, NONE OF WHICH WERE IDENTIFIED, INCLUDE A CARGO SHIP IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OFF OF OMAN AND A BULK CARRIER NORTHWEST OF DUBAI.

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PICK FOR FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR KEVIN WARSH DRAWS PRAISE FROM SENATOR THOM TILLIS WHO MET WITH KEVIN WARSH CALLING IT A GOOD MEETING, BUT REITERATED HIS INTENTION TO BLOCK FED NOMINATIONS UNTIL THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT FINISHES HIS INVESTIGATION INTO FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL.

AI CLOUD RESULTS GIVE A BOOST ORACLE AND PREMARKET TRADING.

MORE ON THAT WITH JOEL KULINA OF WEDBUSH. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

JULIE: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF, YOU ARE LOOKING LIVE AT THE PRINCIPAL ROOM.

LATER AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH PAUL TAUBMAN, 12:00 AND NEW YORK, 4:00 IN LONDON. THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF, I AM JULIE FINE IN NEW YORK. SHARES OF ORACLE EXTENDING GAINS AFTER RAISING ITS FIRST FULL YEAR REVENUE FORECAST. THE

SOFTWARE FIRM EXPECTING TOTAL REVENUE TO REACH 90 BILLION IN THE FISCAL YEAR BEGINNING IN JUNE.

JOINING US IS JOEL KULINA OF WEDBUSH ALONGSIDE NEIL CAMPING.

JOEL, WHAT STUCK OUT TO YOU IN THIS REPORT FROM ORACLE?

JOEL: THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON. THE NUMBER ONE TAKE FOR ORACLE COME UP OVER 11%, IS HOW EXTREMELY LIGHT POSITIONING WAS IN THE PRINT.

HEDGE FUNDS LEANED EXTREMELY NEGATIVE AND SHORT.

MY TAKE AWAY IS THIS IS BETTER THAN FEARED.

WE KNEW THAT THEY WOULD SOUND GOOD AROUND AI DEMAND.

THEY DIDN'T FAIL TO DELIVER ON THAT FRONT.

THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY CAN USE THESE AI CODING TOOLS TO THEIR ADVANTAGE VERSUS A LOT OF THE SMALLER, NIMBLE ARE COMPANIES OUT THERE FEELING THE

SAASPOCALYPSE NARRATIVE.

>> CAN I ASK YOU, IN TERMS OF THE CAPEX SPENDING WHICH HAS BEEN A BIG FOCUS FOR INVESTORS OF LATE, WHAT DO WE GET IN TERMS OF FROM MANAGEMENT LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE MONETIZATION? ARE WE SEEING EVIDENCE THAT THE

MONETIZATION? ARE WE SEEING EVIDENCE THAT THE CAPEX SPEND IS COMING THROUGH WHEN THE BOOKINGS NUMBERS OR THE REVENUE GUIDANCE? JOEL:

IT IS COMING IN SLOWLY BUT SURELY. THAT'S THE KEY THAT WILL PROBABLY KEEP LARGER INSTITUTIONAL MONEY ON THE SIDELINES, AND WHY THE STOCK IS MORE OF A TRADABLE STOCK.

BONDS HAVE PROBABLY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE 145, 150 LEVEL.

MAYBE WE GET A POP TO THE 100-DAY TO $200.

AS NEIL SAID THE CAPEX IS HUGE. THEY STILL HAVE, ALMOST BY FAR, THE HIGHEST CAPEX TO REVENUE RATIO ON THE PLANET.

YOU NEED TO SEE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO QUARTERS BEYOND THIS THE MONETIZATION EFFORTS, ALL OF THIS SPENDING IS DELIVERING ROI.

IT IS A LITTLE WAIT AND SEE FOR ORACLE AND THEIR MANAGEMENT TEAM BUT I THINK THAT THERE IS STILL HAIR ON THE STORY BUT IT IS TOUGH TO ARGUE, IS THIS THE FIRST GLIMMER OF HOPE IN THE ORACLE NARRATIVE SINCE THE STOCK CAME BACK MID-SEPTEMBER?

NEIL: JOEL, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF FOCUS ON THE DEBT ISSUANCE THAT THEY HAD BEFORE.

DO WE GET SIGNS FROM THE MANAGEMENT TEAM LAST NIGHT THE RAISING OF FUNDS HAS FINISHED, OR DO YOU THINK THAT COULD BE MORE TO COME AND PUT IT CAP ON STOCK PERFORMANCE FROM HERE?

JOEL: I THINK THAT IS SORT OF THE BOOGIE MAN FOR THE ORACLE NARRATIVE.

THEY SOUNDED LIKE THE MESSAGING WAS GOOD LAST NIGHT, BUT WE KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON IN AI. MASSIVELY OUTSIZED EXPOSURE TO SAM ALTMAN AND OPENAI. FINANCING WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE STORY MOVING FORWARD. IT COULD REAR ITS HEAD AT ANY POINT. MANAGEMENT DID A GOOD JOB TRYING TO SOOTHE THE CREDIT

POINT. MANAGEMENT DID A GOOD JOB TRYING TO SOOTHE THE CREDIT MARKETS AND IN THE NARRATIVE AROUND THE STORY, BUT I THINK THIS IS STILL -- HENCE WHY IT IS A SHOW ME STORY.

THEY DID WELL TO SOOTHE CONCERNS HENCE WHY YOU ARE GETTING THIS REACTION AGAINST POSITIONING AND IT IS SET UP FOR A PRETTY FAVORABLE RISK-REWARD. JULIE:

HOW SUCCESSFUL IS ORACLE'S AI STRATEGY TO DIFFERENTIATE FROM RIVALS LIKE MICROSOFT, GOOGLE, AND AMAZON? JOEL:

I LOOK AT GOOGLE, STILL PROBABLY ONE OF THE CLEANEST STORIES IN TECH, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MEGA CAP COHORT.

WHAT THEY ARE DOING IN TERMS OF MONETIZING ACROSS MULTIPLE PLATFORMS. WE KNOW GEMINI IS CONTINUING TO GAIN TRACTION IN THIRD-PARTY CONTINUES TO TRACK AHEAD OF THE STREET.

GOOGLE ALPHABET IS IN ITS OWN BUCKET.

MICROSOFT, IT IS A SIMILAR STORY.

NOT AS EXTREME IN TERMS OF NEGATIVITY VERSUS ORACLE, BUT PEOPLE WANT TO SEE THE AZURE ACCELERATE AND IT HAS BEEN STUCK IN THE MUD. MICROSOFT IS A PROVE ME STORY.

UNTIL WE SEE AZURE ACCELERATE NORTH OF 40% THE STOCK WILL BE SPINNING ITS TIRES. WE GOT THE HISTORIC SQUEEZE AND SOFTWARE OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF ON THE BACK OF THE PEACE THAT MARK TO THE BOTTOM I THINK ON FEBRUARY 23.

THE LAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN VICIOUS TO THE DOWNSIDE.

SOFTWARE IDV FAILED THE 50-DAY. THE MORE DEMAND ON SCENE FROM INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS IS INSTITUTIONAL SOFTWARE.

NAMES THAT BENEFIT FROM AGENTIC AI PURE DIGITAL OCEAN, CLOUDFLARE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEMAND ON

CLOUDFLARE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEMAND ON THE SECURITY SIDE OF THINGS. NAMES LIKE SNOWFLAKE, DATA DOG.

THEY ARE BETTER POSITIONED TO GENERATE ROI MORE VISIBLY THAN SOME OF THE LARGER APPLICATION SOFTWARE STOCKS. NEIL:

THAT'S INTERESTING THAT YOU MENTIONED, JOEL, IN TERMS OF THE FOCUS ON OUR ALLY, WHICH IS CRITICAL FOR THE SOFTWARE COMPANIES. IN TERMS OF LOOKING FORWARD TO

COMPANIES. IN TERMS OF LOOKING FORWARD TO THE NEXT EVENTS AND FOCUS, THERE IS A BIG EVENT AND FOCUS WITH NVIDIA NEXT WEEK. DO YOU THINK AGENTIC AI COMES BACK ON THE AGENDA? WHAT DID WE HEAR FROM ORACLE LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF THEIR OWN POSITIONING WITH REGARDS TO THE THREATS FROM AGENTIC AI? JOEL:

I KNOW THERE ARE SOME REPORTS EARLIER THIS WEEK -- I BELIEVE YESTERDAY -- THAT NVIDIA MAY LOOK TO ROLL THEIR OWN SOFTWARE AGENTIC AI PLATFORM. I THINK THAT WAS THE NUMBER ONE DRIVER BEHIND THE SOFTWARE WEAKNESS WE GOT YESTERDAY.

I THINK IT WAS MINUS FOUR, ON H -- OR MINUS FIVE.

THAT WILL BE TOUCHED ON NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ORACLE, IT FELT LIKE ALMOST THE ENTIRE CALL THEY WERE PLAYING DEFENSE, TRYING TO DOWNPLAY SAASPOCALYPSE, THE THREAT FROM SMALLER PLAYERS IN AI VIBE CODING. THEY ARE TRYING TO SHIFT THE

CODING. THEY ARE TRYING TO SHIFT THE NARRATIVE IN A MEANINGFUL WAY. I THINK IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME, BUT I THINK GDC NEXT WEEK IS OBVIOUSLY THE NUMBER ONE CATALYST FOR THE AI SPACE MOVING FORWARD.

WE SAW EARNINGS ON THE DOCKET, ADOBE TOMORROW NIGHT AND MICRON NEXT WEEK, BUT GBTC IS THE EVENT NEXT WEEK WHERE PEOPLE WILL BE LASER FOCUSED. JULIE:

COMING UP, WE WILL GET YOU SET FOR YOUR TRADING DAY.

THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

JULIE: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF, I AM JULIE FINE IN NEW YORK. A LOOK AT WHAT IS AHEAD.

CAMPBELL'S EARNINGS COMING BEFORE THE BELL.

FEBRUARY CPI AT EIGHT: 30 A.M. EASTERN.

39 BILLION OF 10-YEAR TREASURY GOING ON AUCTION THIS AFTERNOON.

LET'S LOOK AT THE MARKETS. MICHAEL:

IT IS ALL ABOUT OIL IN THE MARKETS.

A BIT OF A SURPRISE DESPITE THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE BIG RELEASE OF STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVES AROUND THE WORLD, WE ARE SEEING OIL PRICES UP FIVE DOLLARS FOR BRENT AND FOR WTI.

THAT HAS US AT THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE WE HAVE BEEN TRADING IN FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. ALL THAT NEWS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON EQUITY MARKETS. DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD BY ABOUT 1%. U.S. FUTURES ARE DOWN, NOT QUITE AS

1%. U.S. FUTURES ARE DOWN, NOT QUITE AS MUCH. THERE IS PERHAPS SOME WAITING

MUCH. THERE IS PERHAPS SOME WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CPI REPORT AT EIGHT: 30 OUR TIME, BUT IT SUGGESTS A DOWN DAY AGAIN UNLESS THERE IS SOME OTHER BIG NEWS. IN TERMS OF TREASURIES THEY ARE PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED, BUT A LITTLE HIGHER IN YIELDS BECAUSE WE ARE SEEING CONCERNS ABOUT OIL PRICES OUT THERE.

IT IS DEFINITELY A RISK OFF DAY. JULIE:

GREAT TO BE WITH YOU BUT A LOT GOING ON.

OIL IS OBVIOUSLY THE BIG STORY AS WE CONTINUE TO WAIT TO SEE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. JOEL:

OR OIL PRICES AS THEY SAY WHERE YOU ARE FROM. JULIE:

IT IS GOING TO THE PUMP AS WELL, PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO FIGURE OUT THAT THIS IS AFFECTING ME ON A DAILY BASIS.

MICHAEL: IT KEEPS GOING UP AND UP AT THE PUMP AS GASOLINE STATIONS ADJUST TO WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN.

AMERICANS ARE CERTAINLY NOTICING. JULIE:

THAT IS IT FOR THE BLOOMBERG BRIEF. "SURVEILLANCE" IS AHEAD.

THIS IS BLOOMBERG. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

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