Pricing the Iran War's Future — Are Markets Right? | Prof G Markets

Today’s number, 42. That’s the average age of a new hire in America today, the highest number ever. Standard benefits now include a 401k rollover and a referral to an orthopedic specialist.

Welcome back to Prof G Markets. I’m Ed Elson. It is March 11th. Let’s check in on yesterday’s market vitals. The major indices initially climbed as oil shock fears were tempered, but they ultimately closed flat. Crude oil prices declined, the dollar fell, and Bitcoin jumped above $70,000.

Okay, what’s happening? The war with Iran is escalating. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters at a Pentagon press conference on Tuesday that Iran was badly losing.

Today will be, yet again, our most intense day of strikes inside Iran. The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes. Intelligence, more refined and better than ever.

Hegseth’s comments came just hours after President Trump suggested the war would end very soon. However, Trump also warned that the U.S. would hit Iran 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far if Tehran stops the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

An Iranian official said the country is absolutely not seeking a ceasefire. At least 20 countries are now militarily involved, making it one of the biggest conflicts since the Cold War. Meanwhile, the energy market is on edge. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and Abu Dhabi’s Ruwais refinery, one of the biggest in the world, halted operations after a drone strike nearby.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned of catastrophic consequences if the war drags on. And oil has continued its volatile ride. Brent crude, after spiking to $119 on Monday, fell to $85 by midday Tuesday.