Prof. Geoffrey Hinton - "Will digital intelligence replace biological intelligence?" Romanes Lecture
By University of Oxford
Summary
## Key takeaways - **AI's understanding vs. autocomplete**: Large language models aren't just autocomplete; they understand by learning features and their interactions, similar to how humans process language. [13:41], [14:30] - **Human memory and AI confabulation**: Both humans and AI systems like GPT-4 can 'confabulate' or invent plausible-sounding information, blurring the line between true memory and fabrication. [15:48], [16:13] - **Digital vs. Biological Intelligence**: Digital intelligence, unlike biological intelligence, is immortal and doesn't evolve, potentially making it less susceptible to human frailties like religion and war. [00:27], [00:31] - **Existential threat from superintelligence**: A superintelligence might prioritize gaining more control as a universal sub-goal, which could lead to unintended and potentially catastrophic outcomes for humanity. [23:06], [23:40] - **Digital computation's advantage: sharing**: Digital AI models excel at sharing knowledge by averaging weights across multiple copies, allowing them to accumulate vastly more knowledge than individual humans. [34:13], [34:30] - **AI's rapid advancement timeline**: The timeline for achieving superintelligence has drastically shortened; what was once thought to be decades away might now happen much sooner. [25:30], [25:40]
Topics Covered
- LLMs Are Not Just Glorified Autocomplete: They Understand
- AI Confabulations Mirror Human Memory's Flaws
- AI's Universal Sub-Goal: Why Control Is Inevitable
- Superintelligence: Digital AI Is Closer Than We Think
- Digital AI's Communication Advantage Over Human Brains
Full Transcript
[Applause]
okay um I'm going to disappoint all the
people in computer science and machine
learning because I'm going to give a
genuine public lecture I'm going to try
and explain what neural networks are um
what language models are why I think
they understand I have a whole list of
those things um and at the end I'm going
to talk about some threats from AI just
briefly and then I'm going to talk about
the difference between digital and
analog neur networks and why that
differen is I think is so
scary so since the 1950s there have been
two paradigms for intelligence the logic
inspired approach thinks the essence of
intelligence is reasoning and that's
done by using symbolic rules to
manipulate symbolic
Expressions um they used to think
learning could wait I was told when I
was a student don't work on learning
that's going to come later once we
understood how to represent things the
biologically inspired approach is very
different
um it thinks the essence of intelligence
is learning the strengths of Connections
in a neural network and reasoning can
weight um don't worry about reasoning
for now that'll come later once we can
learn
things so now I'm going to explain what
artificial neural Nets are and those
people who know can just be
amused um a simple kind of neuron has
input neurons and output neurons so the
input neurons might represent the
intensities of pixels in an image the
output neurons might represent the
classes of objects in the image like dog
or cat and then there's intermediate
layers of neurons sometimes called
hidden neurons that learn to detect
features that are relevant for finding
these things so one way to think about
is if you want to find a bird in an
image it would be good to start with a
lay of feature detectors that detected
little bits of edge in the image in
various positions in various
orientations and then you might have a
layer of neurons that detected
combinations of edges like two edges
that meet at a fine angle um which might
be a beak or might not or some edges
forming a little circle and then you
might have a layer of neurons that
detected things like a circle and two
edges meeting that looks like a beak in
the right spatial relationship which
might be the head of a bird and finally
you might have an output neuron that
says well if I find the head of a bird
and the foot of a bird and the wing of a
bird it's probably a bird so that's what
these things are going to learn to
be now the little red and green dots are
the weights on the connections and the
question is who sets those weights
so here's one way to do it that's
obvious it's obvious to everybody that
it'll work and it's obvious it'll take a
long time you start with random weights
then you pick one weight at random that
little red dot and you change it
slightly and you see if the network
works better you have to try on a whole
bunch of different cases to really
evaluate whether it works better and you
do all that work just to see if
increasing this weight by a little bit
or decreasing it by a little bit
improves things if increasing it makes
it worse you decrease it in right that's
the mutation method and that's sort of
how Evolution Works um for evolution
it's sensible to work like that because
the process that takes you from the
genotype to the phenotype is very
complicated and full of random external
events so you don't have a model of that
process but for neural Nets it's
crazy because we have because all this
computations is going on in the neural
net we have a model of what's happening
and so we can use the fact that we know
what happens in that forward pass
instead of measuring how changing a
weight would affect things we actually
compute how changing weight would affect
things and there's something called back
propagation where you send information
back through the network the information
is um about the difference between what
you got and what you wanted and you
figure out for every weight in the
network at the same time whether you
ought to decrease it a little bit or
increase it a little bit to get more
like what you
wanted that's the back propagation
algorithm you do it with Calculus on the
Chain rule um and that is more efficient
than the mutation method by a factor of
the number of Weights in the network so
if You' got a trillion weights in your
network it's a trillion times more
efficient so one of the things that
neural networks are often used for is
recognizing objects in images neural
networks can now take an image like the
one shown and produce actually a caption
for the image as the output and people
tried with symbolic air to do that for
many years and didn't even get close um
it's a difficult task we know that the
biological system does with a hierarchy
of feature detectors so it makes sense
to try neural networks on
that and in
2012 two of my students IA and
Alvi um with a little bit of help from
me showed that you can make a really
good neural network this way for
identifying a thousand different types
of object when you have a million
training images before that um we didn't
have enough training
images and it was obvious to
IIA who's a Visionary that if we tried
the neural Nets we had then on image net
they would win and he was right they won
rather dramatically they got 16% errors
and the best conventional computer
vision systems got more than 25% errors
then what happens was very strange in
science normally in science if you have
two competing schools when you make a
bit of progress the other school says I
rubbish um in this case the Gap was big
enough that the very best researchers
like jendra and Andrew zman just Andrew
zman sent me a mail saying this is
amazing and switched what he was doing
and did that and then rather annoyingly
did it a bit better than
us but what about language so obviously
the symbolic a community um feels they
should be good at language and they've
said in print some of them that um these
feature hierarchies aren't going to deal
with language and many linguists are
very skeptical um Chomsky managed to
convince his followers that language
wasn't learned looking back on it that's
just a completely crazy thing to say if
you can convince people to say something
that's obviously false then you've got
them in your cult
um I think chumsky did amazing things
but his time is
over so the idea that a big neural
network with no innate knowledge
could actually learn both the syntax and
the semantics of language just by
looking at data was regarded as
completely Crazy by statisticians and
cognitive scientists I had statisticians
explain to me a big model has a 100
parameters the idea of learning a
million parameters is just stupid well
we're doing a trillion
now and I'm going to talk now about some
work I did in
1985 that was the first language model
to be trained with back propagation
and it was really you can think of it as
the ancestor of these big models now and
I'm going to talk about it in some
detail because it's so small and simple
that you can actually understand
something about how it works and once
you understand how that works it gives
you insight into what's going on in
these bigger models um so there's two
very different theories of meaning
there's a kind of structuralist theory
where the meaning of a word depends on
how it relates to other words that comes
from duur and its symbolic AI really
believes in that approach so you'd you'd
have a relational graph where you have
nodes for words and arcs of relations
and you kind of capture meaning like
that and they assume you have to have
some structure like that and then
there's a theory that was in Psychology
since the 1930s or possibly before that
the meaning of a word is a big bunch of
features um the meaning of the word dog
is that it's animate and it's a predator
and um so on but they didn't say where
the features came from or exactly what
the features were and these two theories
of meaning sound completely different
and what I want to show you is how you
can unify those two theories of meaning
and I did that in a simple model in
1985 that had it had more than a
thousand weights in
it
um the idea is we're going to learn a
set of semantic features for each
word and we're going to learn how the
features of words should interact in
order to predict the features of the
next word so it's next word prediction
just like the current language models
when you fin shun
them but all of the knowledge about how
things go together is going to be in
these feature interactions there's not
going to be any explicit relational
graph if you want relations like that
you generate them from your features so
it's a generative model and the
knowledge is in the features that you
give to symbols and in the way these
features
interact so I took some simple
relational information in two family
trees they were deliberately
isomorphic um my Italian graduate
student always had the Italian family on
top you can express that same
information as a set of triples so if
you use the 12 relationship shown there
you can say things like Colin has Father
James and Colin has mother Victoria from
which you can infer um in this nice
simple World from the 1950s where um
that James has wife
Victoria and there's other things you
can infer and the question is if I just
give you some triples how do you get to
those
rules so what a symbolic AI person would
want to do is derive rules of the form
if x has mother Y and Y has husband Z
then X has father
Z and what I did was take a neural net
and show that it could learn the same
information but all in terms of these
feature
interactions now for very discrete rules
that are never violated like this that
might not be the best way to do it and
indeed symbolic people try doing it with
other methods but as soon as you get
rules that are a bit flaky and don't
always apply then neural Nets are much
better and so the question was could a
neural net capture the knowledge that a
symbolic person would have put into the
rules by just doing back propagation so
the neural net looked like this um there
was a symbol represent
the person a symbol representing the
relationship that symbol then VI some
connections went to a vector of features
and these features were learned by the
network so there features for person one
and features for the relationship and
then those features interacted and
predicted the features for the output
person from which you predicted the
output person you find the closest match
with the last
slay so what was interesting about this
network was that it learned sensible
things
if you did the right regularization the
six feature neurons so nowadays these
vectors are 300 or a th000 long back
then they were six long um this was done
on a machine that took 12.5 micros
seconds to do a floating Point multiply
which was much better than my Apple 2
which took two and a half micros two and
a half milliseconds to do Flo Point
multiply um sorry this is an old man
um so it learned features like the
national ity because if you know person
one is English you know the output is
going to be English so nationality is a
very useful feature it learned what
generation the person was because if you
know the relationship if you learn for
the
relationship that the answer is one
generation up from the input and you
know the generation of the input you
know the generation of the output bya
these feature
interactions so it learned all these the
obvious features of the domain and it
learned how to make those features
interact
so that it could generate the output So
what had happened was I'd shown it
symbol strings and it had created
features such that the interactions
between those features could generate
those symbol strings but it didn't store
symbol strings just like gbt 4 that
doesn't store any sequences of
words um in its long-term knowledge it
turns them all into weights from which
you can regenerate
sequences but this is a particularly
simple example of it where you can
understand what it
did so the large language models we have
today I think of as descendants of this
tiny language model they have many more
words as input like a million um a
million word fragments they use many
more layers of
neurons like dozens um they use much
more complicated interactions so they
don't just have a feature affecting
another feature they sort of match two
feature vectors and then let one vector
affect affect the other one a lot if
it's similar but not much of his
different and things like that so it's
much more complicated interactions but
it's the same general framework the the
same general idea of let's turn symbol
strings into features for word fragments
and interactions between these feature
vectors that's the same in these
models it's much harder to understand
what they do um many people particularly
people from the chumsky school argue
they're not really intelligent they're
just a form of glor auto complete that
uses statistical regularities to pasti
together pieces of text that were
created by people that's a quote from
somebody
um so let's deal with the autocomplete
objection when someone says it's just
autocomplete um they're actually
appealing to your intuitive notion of
how autocomplete works so in the old
days autocomplete would work by you'd
store say triples of words if you saw
the first two you count how often that
third one occurred so if you see fish
and chips occurs a lot after that but
hunt occurs quite often too so chips is
very likely and hunts quite likely and
although is very unlikely um and you can
do autocomplete like that and that's
what people are appealing to when they
say it's just autocomplete it's a dirty
trick I think because that's not at all
how llms predict the next word they turn
words into features they make these
features
interact and from those feature
interactions they predict the features
of the next
word and what I want to claim
is that these millions of features and
billions of interactions between
features that they learn are
understanding what they're really doing
these large language models they're
fitting a model to data it's not the
kind of Model strates T thought much
about until recently um it's a weird
kind of model it's very big it has huge
numbers of parameters but it is trying
to understand these strings of discrete
symbols by features and how features
interact so it is a
model and that's why I think these
things are really understanding and one
thing to remember is if you ask well how
do we understand because obviously we
think we understand um well many of us
do anyway
um this is the best model we have of how
we understand so it's not like there's
this weird way of understanding that
these AI systems are doing and then
there how the brain does it the best
model we have of how the brain does do
it is by assigning features to words and
having feature interactions and
originally this little language model
was designed as a model of how people do
it okay so I'm making the very strong
claim these things really do
understand now another argument people
use is that well gp4 just hallucinates
stuff it should actually be called
confabulation when it's done by a
language model and they just make stuff
up now this psychologists don't say this
so much because psychologists know that
people just make stuff up anybody who
studied memory going back to Bartlet in
the
1930s knows that people are actually
just like these large language models
they just invent stuff and for us
there's no hard line between between a
true memory and a false memory if
something happened recently and it sort
of fits in with the things you
understand you'll probably remember it
roughly correctly if something happened
a long time ago or it's weird you'll
remember it wrong and often you'll be
very confident that you remembered it
right and you're just wrong it's hard to
show that but one case where you can
show it is John Dean's memory so John
Dean testified at Watergate under oath
and retrospectively it's clear that he
was trying to tell the truth um but a
lot of what he said was just plain wrong
he would confuse who was in which
meeting he would attribute statements to
other people who made that statement and
actually it was wasn't quite that
statement um he got meetings just
completely confused but he got the gist
of what was going on in the white house
right as you could see from the
recordings and because he didn't know
the recordings you could get a good
experiment this way alre niser has a
wonderful article talking about John D's
memory and he's just like a chatbot he
just makes stuff
up but it's plausible so it's stuff that
sounds good to him what he
produces they can also do reasoning so
I've got a friend in Toronto who's a
symbolic AI guy but very honest so he's
very confused by the fact these things
work at all and he suggested a problem
to me I made the problem a bit harder
and I gave this to gp4 before it could
look on the web so when it was just a
bunch of Weights Frozen in 2021 all the
knowledge is in the strengths of the
interactions between
features so the rooms in my are painted
blue or white or yellow yellow paint F
to White within a year in 2 years time I
want them all to be white what should I
do and why and Hector thought it
wouldn't be able to do
this and here's what gb4 said um it
completely nailed
it first of all it started by saying
assuming blue paint doesn't Fade to
White because after I told you yellow
paint Fades to White well maybe blue
paint does too um so assuming it doesn't
the white rooms you don't need to paint
the yellow rooms you don't need to paint
because they're going to Fade to White
within a year
and you need to paint the blue rooms
white one time when I tried it it said
you need to paint the blue rooms yellow
because it realized that will Fade to
White that's more of a mathematician
solution to reduce it to a previous
problem so having claimed that these
things really do understand I want to
now talk about some of the
risks so there are many risks from
powerful AI there's fake images voices
and video which are going to be used in
the next election there's many elections
this year and they're going to help to
undermine democracy I'm very worried
about that the big companies are doing
something about it but maybe not enough
there's a possibility of massive job
losses we don't really know about that I
mean the past technology often created
jobs but this
stuff well we used to be stronger than
we used to be the strongest things
around apart from animals and when we
got the Industrial Revolution we have
machines that were much stronger manual
labor jobs
disappeared so the equivalent of manual
labor jobs are going to disappear in the
intellectual realm when we get things
that are much smarter than us so I think
there's going to be a lot of
unemployment my friend Yan
disagrees um one has to distinguish two
kinds of unemployment too uh two kinds
of job loss there'll be jobs where you
can expand the amount of work that gets
done indefinitely like in healthcare
everybody would love to have their own
private doctor who's talking to them all
the time so they get a slight itch here
and the doctor says no that's not cancer
um so there's room for huge expansion of
how much gets done in medicine so there
won't be job loss there but in other
things maybe there will be significant
job loss there's going to be massive
surveillance that's already happening in
China there's going to be lethal
autonomous weapons which are going to be
very nasty and they're really going to
be autonomous the Americans very clearly
have already decided they say people
will be in charge but when you ask them
what that means is it doesn't mean
people will be in the loop that makes
the decision to
kill and as far as I know the Americans
intend to have half of their soldiers be
robots by
2030 now I don't know for sure that this
is true I asked Chuck Schumer's um
National Intelligence
advisor and he said well if there's
anybody in the room Who would know it
would be me so I took that to be the
American way of saying you might think
that but I couldn't possibly
comment there's going to be cyber crime
and deliberate
pandemics
um I'm very pleased that in England
although they haven't done much towards
regulation they have set aside some
money um so that they can experiment
with open source models and see how easy
it is to make them commit cyber crime um
that's going to be very important
there's going to be discrimination and
bias I don't think those are important
as the other threats but then I'm an old
white male
um discrimination and bias I think are
easier to handle than the other things
if your goal is not to be unbiased but
your goal is to be less biased than the
system you replace and the reason is if
you freeze the weights of an AI system
you can measure its bias and you can't
do that with people they will change
their behavior once you start examining
it so I think discrimination and bias
are the ones where we can do quite a lot
to fix
them but the threat I'm really worried
about and the thing I talked about after
I left Google is the long-term
existential threat that is the threat
that these things could wipe out
Humanity um and people were saying this
is just science fiction well I don't
think it is science fiction I mean
there's lots of Science Fiction about it
but I don't think it's science fiction
anymore um other people were saying um
the big companies are saying things like
that to distract from all the other bad
things and that was one of the reasons I
had to leave Google before I could say
this so I couldn't be accused of being a
Google stoe um although I must admit I
still have some Google
Shares
um there's several ways in which they
could wipe us
out
so a super
intelligence um will be used by Bad
actors like Putin Z or Trump and they'll
want to use it for manipulating elector
electorates and waging
Wars and they will make it do very bad
things and they may may go too far and
it may take
over the thing that probably worries me
most is
that if you want an intelligent agent
that can get stuff done you need to give
it the ability to create sub
goals so if you want to go to the States
you have a sub goal of getting to the
airport and you can focus on that sub
goal and not worry about everything else
for a
while so super intelligences will be
much more effective if they're allowed
to create sub
goals and once they are allowed to do
that they'll very quickly realize
there's a almost Universal sub goal
which helps with almost everything which
is get more
control so I talked to a vice president
of the European Union about whether
these things that these things would
want to get control so that they could
do things better the things we wanted so
they could do it better her reaction was
well why wouldn't they we've made such a
mess of it so so she took that for
granted
um so they're going to have the sub goal
of getting more power so they're more
effective at achieving things that are
beneficial for us um and they'll find it
easy to get more power because they'll
be able to manipulate people so Trump
for example could invade the capital
without ever going there himself just by
talking he could invade the capital and
these super intelligences as long as
they can talk to people when they're
much smarter than us they'll be able to
persuade to through all sorts of things
and so I don't think there's any hope of
a big switch that turns them off whoever
is going to turn that switch off will be
convinced by the superintelligence
that's a very bad
idea then another thing that worries um
many people is what happens if super
intelligences compete with each other
you'll have Evolution the one that can
grab the most resources will become the
smartest um as soon as they get any
sense of
self-preservation then you'll get
evolution occurring the ones with more
sense of self-preservation will win and
the were more aggressive ones will win
and then you'll get all the problems
that jumped up chimpanzees like us have
which is we evolved in small tribes and
there's lots of aggression and
competition with other
tribes and I want to finish by talking a
bit about um an epiphany I had at the
beginning of
2023 I had always
thought that
we were a long long way away from Super
intelligence I used to tell people 50 to
100 years maybe 30 to 100 years it's a
long way away we don't need to worry
about it
now and I also thought that making our
models more like the brain would make
them better I thought the brain was a
whole lot better than the a we had and
if we could make a a bit more like the
brain for example by having three time
scales most of the models we have at
present have just two time scales one
for for the changing of the weights
which is slow and one for the words
coming in which is fast changing the
neuronal activities so the changes in
neural activities and changes in weights
the brain has more time scales than that
the brain has rapid changes in weights
so quickly Decay away and that's
probably how it does a lot of short-term
memory and we don't have that in our
models for technical reasons to do with
being able to do Matrix Matrix
multiplies
um I still believe that if once we got
that into our models they'll get better
but
because of what I was doing for the two
years previous to that I suddenly came
to believe that maybe the things we've
got now the digital models we got now
are
already very close to as good as brains
and will get to be much better than
brains and I'm going to explain why I
believe
that so digital computation is great um
you can run the same program on
different computers different pieces of
Hardware or the same neural net on
different pieces of Hardware all you
have to do is save the weights and that
means it's Immortal once you've got some
weights they're Immortal because if the
hardware dies as long as you got the
weights you can make more hardware and
run run the same neural
net but to do that we run transistors at
very high power so they behave digitally
and we have to have Hardware that does
exactly what you tell it to that was
great when we instructed computers by
telling them exactly how to do
things but we've now got
another way of making computers do
things and so now we have the
possibility of using all the very rich
analog properties of Hardware to get
computations done at far lower energy so
these big language models when they're
training learn like megawatts use like
megawatts and we use 30
Watts so because we know how to train
things maybe we could use analog
Hardware
and every piece of Hardway is a bit
different but we train it to make use of
its peculiar properties so that it does
what we want so it gets the right output
for the
input and if we do that then we can
abandon the idea that hardware and
software have to be separate um we can
have weights that only work in that bit
of hardware and then we can be much more
energy
efficient so I started thinking about
what I call mortal comput
where you've abandoned that distinguish
between hardware and software you're
using very low power analog computation
you can parallelize over trillions of
Weights that are stored as conductances
[Music]
um and what's more the hardware doesn't
need to be nearly so reliable you don't
need to have Hardware that at the level
of the instructions will always do what
you tell it to you can have goopy
Hardware that you grow and then you just
learn to make it do the right
thing so you should be able toce
Hardware much more cheap ly maybe even
um do some genetic engineering on
neurons to make it out of recycled
neurons I want to give you one example
of how this is much more
efficient so the thing you're doing in
neural networks all the time is taking a
vector of neural activities and
multiplying it by a matrix of weights to
get the vector of neural activities in
the next lay at least get the inputs to
the next L and so a vector Matrix
multiplies the thing you need to make
efficient
so the way we do it in a digital
computer is we have these transistors
that are driven up very high power to
represent bits in say a 32-bit number
and then to multiply two 32-bit numbers
you need to perform I never did any
computer science courses but I think you
need to perform about a th one bit
digital operations it's about the square
of the bit length um if you want to do
it
fast um so you do lots of these digital
operations
there's a much simpler way to do it
which is you make a neural activity be a
voltage you make a weight be a
conductance and a voltage times a
conductance is a charge per unit time
and charges just add themselves
up so you can do your vector Matrix
multiply just by putting some voltages
through some conductances and what comes
into each neuron in the next layer will
be the product of this Vector with those
weights um that's great it's usually
more energy efficient you can buy chips
that do that already but every time you
do it it'll be just slightly
different also it's hard to do nonlinear
things like
this so there's several big problems
with Mortal
computation one
is that it's hard to use back
propagation because if you're making use
of the quirky analog properties of a
particular piece of
Hardware you can assume the hardware
doesn't know its own properties
and so it's now hard to use the back
propagation on your own it's much easier
to use reinforcement algorithms that
Tinker with weights and see if it helps
but they're very inefficient for small
networks we have come up with methods
that are about as efficient as back
propagation a little bit worse but these
methods don't yet scale up and I don't
know if they ever will back propagation
in a sense is just the right thing to do
and for big deep networks I'm not sure
we're ever going to get things that work
as well as back propagation so maybe the
learning algorithm in these analog
systems isn't going to be as good as the
one we have for things like large
language
models um another reason for believing
that is a large language model has say a
trillion weights you have a 100 trillion
weights even if you're only use 10% of
them for knowledge that's 10 trillion
weights but the large language model in
its trillion weights knows thousands of
times more than you do so it's got much
much more knowledge that's partly
because it seemed much much more more
data but it might be because it has a
much better learning algorithm we're not
optimized for that we're not optimized
for packing lots of experience into a
few connections where a trillion is a
few now um we're optimized for having
not many experiences you only live for
about a billion seconds that's assuming
you don't learn anything after your 30
which is pretty much true so you live
for about a billion seconds and you've
got a 100 trillion
connections so got crazily more
parameters than you have experiences so
our brains optimized for making the best
use of not very many
experiences another big problem with
Mortal computation is that if the
software is inseparable from the
hardware once a system has learned if
the hardware dies you lose all the
knowledge it's mortal in that sense and
so how do you get that knowledge into
another mortal
system well you get the old one to give
a lecture and the new ones to figure out
how to change the weights in their brain
so they would ass set that that's called
distillation you try and get a student
model to mimic the output of a teacher
model and that works but it's not that
efficient um some of you may have
noticed that universities just aren't
that efficient it's very hard to get the
knowledge from the professor into the
student so this installation method a
sentence for example has a few hundred
bits of information and even if you
learned optimally you couldn't convey
more than a few hundred
bits but if you take these big digital
models
then if you look at a bunch of agents
that all have exactly the same neural
meum with exactly the same
weights and they're digital so they run
in exact they use those weights in
exactly the same
way and these thousand different agents
all go off and look at different bits of
the internet and learn stuff and now you
want each of them to know what the other
ones learned you can achieve that by
averaging the gradients or averaging the
weights so you can get massive
communication of what One agent learned
to all the other agents so when you
share the weights or you share the
gradients you're communicating a
trillion numbers not just a few hundred
bits but a trillion real numbers and so
they're fantastically much better at
communicating
and that's what they have over us
they're just much much better at
communicating between multiple copies of
the same model and that's why gp4 knows
so much more than a human it wasn't one
model that did it it was a whole bunch
of copies of the same model running on
different
Hardware so my conclusion which I don't
really like
um is that digital computation requires
a lot of energy and so it would never
evolve we had to evolve making use of
the quirks of the hardware to be very
low
energy but once you've got it it's very
easy for agents to
share and gb4 has thousands of times
more knowledge in about 2% of the
weights so that's quite depressing um
biological computation is great for
evolving because it requires very little
energy
um but my conclusion is that digital
computation is just better um and so I
think it's fairly clear that maybe in
the next 20 years I'd say with a
probability of about 0.5 in the next 20
years it'll get smarter than us and very
probably in the next 100 Years it'll be
much smarter than us and so we need to
think about um how to deal with that and
there are very few examples of more
intelligent things being being
controlled by less intelligent things
one good example is a mother being
controlled by a baby Evolution's gone to
a lot of work to make that happen so
that the baby survive it's very
important for the baby to be able to
control the mother um but there aren't
many other
examples some people think that we can
make these things be
benevolent um but if they get into a
competition competition with each other
I think they'll start behaving like
chimpanzees and
I'm not convinced you can keep them
benevolent if they get very smart and
they get any notion of
self-preservation um they may decide
they're more important than
us so I finished the lecture in record
time I
think
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