Retire on Less Bitcoin Than You Think (New Math)

How many Bitcoin do I actually need to retire? Do I maybe need way less than I

retire? Do I maybe need way less than I think or way more than I think? What

actually happens when I retire today and we see a crash of Bitcoin like we have seen just in the last 8 months, like we have seen in 2021, like we have seen in

2017. How do I prepare for that? How

2017. How do I prepare for that? How

will my expenses change once I retire?

Because I have more time to spend more money. I might take up new hobbies that

money. I might take up new hobbies that need more money, but I maybe also save some money because I no longer need to drive to work and do other things that are associated with the working life.

All of those questions and many many more we are answering in this very video. Trey Cellers is in my humble

video. Trey Cellers is in my humble opinion one of the best maybe even the best authority on the topic of retirement and Bitcoin. We talk about

the 8% rule. We talk about how you can actually calculate that. He's even

showing his own tool where you can put all your inputs yourself in and put your exact individual situation in and see how close you are to full retirement, to

half retirement, to financial independence. This is the whole ultimate

independence. This is the whole ultimate retirement on Bitcoin episode that I've ever made. The most in-depth video on

ever made. The most in-depth video on that topic that you will ever find.

Enjoy.

I I want to dive into the Bitcoin retirement topic on how to retire, how do you think about it, like all of those questions. Um because I think you're

questions. Um because I think you're doing a really great job in like diving deep into this whole fire topic also. Um

but maybe before just like starting with with the with with a more market kind of question. Is there um is there a

question. Is there um is there a meaningful difference between starting your retirement thoughts in a bare market like we are in right now versus starting in a bull market because you

have on the one side not less excitement. Everyone is like less

excitement. Everyone is like less bullish and everything is like bearish and like we're thinking about Bitcoin going to zero and all of those things.

But at the flip side, if you look at it from a logical perspective, that's kind of the perfect way. If you calculate your retirement with the stack that you have right now,

uh you're in a way better shape for a security buffer than if you did it like October last year at like 126,000 because yeah, like the there could be a

50% drop. Yeah, it it kind of all comes

50% drop. Yeah, it it kind of all comes down to your conviction in Bitcoin over the long term and whether you think it's actually going to recover and continue to do what it's been doing for all of

these years, which you know, even in the normal FIRE community is something that I think people they start their investing journey or their savings journey using index funds and all of

that and you can see the historical performance of the stock market going back hundred you know 100 plus years but it's like when you get started ed yourself and you're putting your actual

money at risk and you've got actual skin in the game yourself. Now all of a sudden there are these doubts that come into play. It's like, yeah, I know I

into play. It's like, yeah, I know I know what this says, but what if it doesn't happen this time around? What

what if it doesn't actually come back?

And you it it's kind of hard to get over that hump. Um this is one of the reasons

that hump. Um this is one of the reasons that dollar cost averaging is such a great way to invest money as opposed to just having a lump sum and dumping it

in. Even though statistically speaking

in. Even though statistically speaking you're you're better you're most likely better off with lump sum investing DCA allows you to have this longer period of

time that you're putting more capital at work and it it's better from like an emotional standpoint for most people I think to be able to weather all of this uncertainty that's creeping in to your

psyche especially early on when you're just starting down a savings journey and building a portfolio. that uh you know has the end goal of being able to to

help you retire or pay for things later in life that you need to pay for without having a job that you could lose at any day. You know, AI and all of that stuff,

day. You know, AI and all of that stuff, right? Um the other thing that kind of

right? Um the other thing that kind of triggered for me when you're asking this question is yes absolutely like this is a stacker's paradise where the price just goes down

or stays steady and the capital that you are putting in does much more work than if the price is going up on you every week as your DCA you you can buy less

and less Bitcoin. Um,

but there is a psychological uh headwind that people have where it's much easier to put larger amounts of

capital in the asset when it's going up and when there's euphoria in the air and everybody's talking about it and and how it's going to reach all of these big

price targets. um when you're stacking

price targets. um when you're stacking in the bare market, it's it's it's more difficult from an emotional standpoint or a psychological standpoint to put

large amounts of capital in. Um and this is kind of like this buy when the blood when there's blood in the streets type of thing uh that so many investors, so many traders have a hard time with,

which is that when everybody's fearful, when there's looks like there's no hope around the corner, that's the best time to be buying these assets. assuming that

you've got a positive long-term out outlook on on things. And um the opposite is true, like when when everybody's talking about Bitcoin and

it's screaming to new all-time highs, well, you you you have a higher chance that that's not going to continue, at least in the short term. But it feels better because hey, you know, if

Bitcoin's screaming toward 100,000, well, let's just say it's going to stop there. it's probably

there. it's probably very likely going to just go straight to 100 to 200,000 and you're going to very quickly uh double your money and then you'll figure out what to do from there.

Uh so there's all of this it's an emotional swirl that people have especially early on in their journey. Uh

and so it's it's kind of important that you start thinking about what you're what you're going to do and how you think you might feel in these different

scenarios. Um so that when you get into

scenarios. Um so that when you get into them, you have already gone down that uh you you've given yourself that psychological analysis and prepared

yourself for the emotions that you will inevitably feel. And I've been around

inevitably feel. And I've been around this for I don't know years and years now and I've been through multiple cycles and I don't care how long you've

been around Bitcoin. It's impossible not to feel the effect of that euphoria when it's going down and some of the like hopelessness when it's just been in the doldrums for the for this long. It's

just impossible to do that. You're

you're not human if you don't feel those things. Um so I don't know if that's

things. Um so I don't know if that's directly answering your question, but it's u you know hopefully it kind of paints a picture of how I think about this and um and hopefully people can

relate to like just this emotional pull that that you have during these different market cycles.

It's so logical if you think about it, but it's also emotionally so stupid that we have that thing. And I have it. I

think everyone has that emotional thing of group psychology, of the fear of missing out, the the the social pressure

that you go under because when the price goes down, the negative headlines get more clicks than the positive ones. If the price goes up the other way around, it's like

and also when the price goes up, everyone that is positive on Bitcoin gets louder. If the price goes down,

gets louder. If the price goes down, everyone that gets negative on Bitcoin gets louder.

They get amplified. Mhm.

And they get ampl amplified at the same time. So there are a lot of effects

time. So there are a lot of effects where if you buy Bitcoin at 100K and it goes up to 110K, you get reinforced and you get the fear of

missing out or have to put more money in and it's like 120K and like it goes up and like it gets reinforced. Then when

it goes down, it actually gets not reinforced. people like you see the

reinforced. people like you see the negative headlines, the the critics come out, the negative feedback loop starts, which is exactly the opposite of what you should do.

Yeah.

Like if Bitcoin rips, like now we at like 70 80k something like that. If

Bitcoin rips till the end of year at to 300,000, it might be wise to slow down the DCA. might be wise to build some

the DCA. might be wise to build some emergency fund, uh build some some cash reserves, uh even if that's maybe not something popular to say in Bitcoin, but

that might actually be a more wise thing to do than yolo leverage allin. And on

the flip side, if we are going down at to 40k, maybe the allin like leverage kind of thing might actually be more sensible thing. I never argue for

sensible thing. I never argue for leverage. I always think leverage might

leverage. I always think leverage might be a bad idea, but uh it like just from a logical standpoint, the emotional good

thing is always the bad thing to do.

Yeah, I I mean, you're right. It might

be logical, but hindsight is 2020, right? It's it's it's very easy to say

right? It's it's it's very easy to say that looking in a rears, and it's very difficult to actually adhere to that when you're in the moment. I mean, I I have done all of these things. I've made

all of these uh mistakes or if you if that's what you want to call them. I I

remember back in it was like 2022, Bitcoin's pulling off all-time highs.

Um still feeling very bullish. We're

we're going higher, right? And I

borrowed some money. I bought a big chunk of Bitcoin. It was some somewhere in the neighborhood of like 45,000 50,000. And

50,000. And that was because I was feeling really good about it. and

continued to ride that all the way down to 15,000 right before we finally went up and made new highs. And now and now if you look at it and it's like, okay,

well, we went to 124 and we're at 80,000 now, so a $45,000 purchase of Bitcoin, a large chunk, like that's a great that's a great return. That's a great

investment. Um, but like

investment. Um, but like th those returns do not happen in a straight line, especially with Bitcoin.

And you never know exactly what path it's going to take to get to the ultimate end goal. And I think a lot of people right now are very much confounded as to why things are

happening the way that they're happening right now. I'm still extraordinarily

right now. I'm still extraordinarily bullish on Bitcoin over the long term, but I would be lying to you if I told you that I understood all of the

intricacies or the nuance as to why Bitcoin is trading at 75,000 right now.

while the stock market is making all-time highs where we have all this geopolitical unrest and Iran is taking Bitcoin as payment for passage through the straight of Hormuz it's like it and

and debt is hitting 39 going on $40 trillion in the US. Um, it feels like all of the bullish catalysts and things

that would push the price higher are in place and have been for a very long time and we've just been stagnant and it's

it's it's very difficult, right? And um

you know I think if you're if you're in an echo if you're in an echo chamber or you're like totally

isolated from the environment and the uh people around you who you may may have been talking about Bitcoin with and that kind of thing. Um it's much easier to to

handle these types of swings. Like I've

got my conviction and I know this and and all that, but like you're you're hitting on a little bit. there's there's

this like social pressure whether it's whether it's the people who are actually around you your friends and family and and that kind of thing or it's just what you're consuming or being fed through

the algos on social media or wherever you get your news sources that just that just wear you down. They wear you down during these deep bare markets. Um so

I'm I'm I'm saying all this to just say like we're all in the same boat here.

Like I I I can relate to the way that people who are maybe newer to Bitcoin who just started stacking when during that last euphoric phase above 100,000 that we spent a good amount of time

there, right? During this kind of

there, right? During this kind of distribution in hindsight, distribution phase that we went through before this this larger pullback and you're probably feeling a little bit insecure about the

decisions that you've made. And it's

like, oh yeah, Bitcoin is better money.

Um, it's got this massive total addressable market for store of value asset and it's much more superior to gold and to bonds and to real estate for

all of the reasons that we all understand. But why isn't the val why

understand. But why isn't the val why isn't the market valuing it for all of those things in the here and now? And

sometimes that that timeline that you expect things to happen, um the the compressed view that we have on the short term is really hard to look past

to see where things are in 10 years. And

10 years is really not all that long of time, right? It's like over a 10-year

time, right? It's like over a 10-year period, um, a lot can change and a lot can happen, but like I'm secure in the

reality of the situation, which is that over the long term, what what needs to be true for Bitcoin to be successful?

They got to keep printing money. Bitcoin

needs to maintain 21 million hard cap and we need to continue on in a digital world as opposed to going to a totally analog world. Like I'm pretty confident

analog world. Like I'm pretty confident in those three pillars of a thesis. And

I don't really see any reason that any of those would be upset in any time ever really. Uh, so if that's the case, you

really. Uh, so if that's the case, you kind of just have to put your blinders on and let those things play out and try

not to get swept up and caught up in the what feel like macro movements because we're looking at it on a compressed time frame, but are actually just micro

movements in that overall trend.

Yeah. I mean, we are what, eight months, nine months from the last alltime high away. It's not that long.

away. It's not that long.

Not that long ago. It really isn't.

Yeah.

And um I maybe one more point before we start with the actual retirement topic.

Um I think it's especially hard for Bitcoiners because most Bitcoiners as maybe you and and me also um are pretty alone when it comes to their direct

friends and relatives. Now, obviously

with my podcast and and me working in Bitcoin, that has changed a bit in the last one, two years where a lot of my friends actually are Bitcoiners that got

to be my friends over time. Um, but I I remember just two years ago, three years ago, it was just me. there was like one cousin, one uncle that got it a little bit and then like a hundred other

relatives um or family members or friends that like had no clue about it and maybe had even some exposure but they didn't care about it. They were not really Bitcoiners. And so I think we we

really Bitcoiners. And so I think we we shouldn't forget that there's a very lonely component still in 2026 which is

crazy component to being in Bitcoin.

Yeah. Yeah, you're right. I mean, it's it's feast or famine, right?

What is that?

Well, when when the when the price is ripping, you're like the most popular guy at the party when you're a Bitcoiner right?

And uh and the people who have known you've been around Bitcoin for a long time are asking you about it and they've started buying a little bit. Like

everybody that I know for the most part has some amount of Bitcoin, right? It's

it's typically very small. It's not

really material, but they got some amount that they probably started buying in the last year, two two years when the price was going up every day. Um, and

then the famine part comes when the price is in the doldrums. They feel like they're underwater. Um, and you know, it

they're underwater. Um, and you know, it just it just is what it is when it comes to these kind of short-term cycles. Um,

you you you said let's get into the retirement stuff. Like I feel like this

retirement stuff. Like I feel like this is a very important part of that retirement conversation, right? Like

people people who are using Bitcoin as a savings vehicle, they're all feeling these same types of emotions. Especially if you're early in

emotions. Especially if you're early in your journey and especially if you're late in your journey. Like if you are close to retirement and Bitcoin is doing what it's been doing, you might be

starting to think, well, what if this lasts for a very long time and I'm selling down my Bitcoin or I'm borrowing against it to fund my lifestyle and this just doldrums

continues on. What is that actually

continues on. What is that actually going to do for the long-term nature of this retirement that I'm trying to fund?

And the basis of the FIRE methodology of retirement planning, generally speaking, is that you own assets that continue to compound and go up over

time. And if that doesn't happen or you

time. And if that doesn't happen or you start to have doubts about whether or not that happens, then uh then it raises questions as to the efficacy of the

retirement plan that you've built. So I

I think it is relevant that you know people are feeling very uncertain at this point in time for you know in uh so some some people are feeling some amount

of uncertainty about like what the next five years looks like or what the next year or two years looks like and it is relevant to this you know question about retirement.

Now, how do you think about like how do you begin a retirement conversation even because there's so many nuances to that

question. How do you even start to think

question. How do you even start to think about where to start with Bitcoin retirement?

Well, just retirement in general and the concept of like financial freedom or being able to operate without a paycheck

starts with the lifestyle that you either are living now that you want to continue or the lifestyle that you want to build. Because

to build. Because if you think about like during your working life, you've got all these expenses that you're funding and the the

funding of those expenses is coming from income that you've got from a job, right? You're trading your time for

right? You're trading your time for money or you're building a business that creates cash flows of some kind. Um, and

you're you're you're building a lifestyle that is funded by some inflow of capital.

And in order to replace that flow of capital, in order to retire, which means not or or become financially independent such that you don't have to rely on that paycheck because you're going to step

away and start doing other things that um you know you find more enjoyment for or uh you've just kind of run out the life of your career. It's time to think

about the next stage. Well,

whatever you're using to replace that money that's coming in from your job needs to uh needs to know what it's covering

in order to replace it. Meaning, it all starts from the expense side of this uh P&L or this cash flow statement, if you

will. So if you have a good

will. So if you have a good understanding of what you need to cover in terms of your lifestyle, then you can

start to design a a plan around where you need to get to for your balance sheet to take over as the funding mechanism for your life relative to your

income statement or the revenues that are coming from your job. So it all starts from there. What do you want your lifestyle to look like after you've started working? Is that just a

started working? Is that just a continuation of your current lifestyle?

Like, hey, I'm pretty happy with like the house I live in and the travel that I get to do and the um you know, places that I'm eating out. Like, I don't need

to have a jet. I don't need to have like a second home. Or maybe I do want to have a second home and I want to build that into my um lifestyle that I want to plan for. Great. Like when you take

plan for. Great. Like when you take inventory of what that lifestyle is going to look like, what your end goal lifestyle is going to look like, then

you've got like the first piece of understanding what you need to build in order to fund that. So that's where things start. It

that. So that's where things start. It

starts with your expenses. It starts

with what do you want your life to look like? When you define that, then you can

like? When you define that, then you can take the next step of okay, how do I build a portfolio and a mechanism or a

plan that will help me to achieve that lifestyle when I've stopped working?

Interesting. I I never thought about that. But while you were explaining and

that. But while you were explaining and thinking about, okay, I have a job now that takes 30, 40, 50 hours of my week

away and I want to retire from that.

If you retire from that, your lifestyle will be different like 100 like it the wills something will change. Um, and so

you have basically 30, 40, 50 more hours per week that you can potentially spend more money on potentially. Potentially

potentially. Potentially potentially you pick up a new hobby.

That new hobby potentially costs more money. Um, you might also save money

money. Um, you might also save money because maybe you cook at home instead of eating out at lunch. Like like maybe you don't need to drive as much with the

car to work. like there there al of course those cost uh benefits to like no longer having a job um potentially

um um but there overall I would think people might find new things they can spend money on directly or indirectly uh so this is also never thought about that

like even like you have a current expense rate whatever it is 2,000 3,000 5,000 a month that might actually increase just because you have 40 50

more hours uh time to do whatever you want to do which might cost more money.

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Yeah, it's you're right. Um what are you going to do with that time? I think

people do have this um picturesque vision of what retirement looks like, but they haven't necessarily

thought about it on a day-to-day basis, how you're going to spend your time and what is that going to cost. You're right

that there are some expenses that will go away when you stop working. Maybe you

don't need a second car if you've stopped working, right? Perhaps you can get rid of a car. You don't need a second car. Um that that's great. Like

second car. Um that that's great. Like

you're getting rid of an expense. You're

getting rid of uh the driving. Maybe you

maybe you you definitely do need to keep that. And maybe you're also adding on a

that. And maybe you're also adding on a golf membership because you're going to play golf every day because that's the thing that you want to do on the weekends that you don't have time to do during the week because you're working.

And so now you've got to add 500 bucks a month or a thousand bucks a month or something to the expense profile that you're going to have in retirement that

you need to start planning for. And so

um I think this exercise of like really thinking about what you want to do with your life after you retire or after you step away from the current path that is

funding your lifestyle and move into a different direction. It's a really good

different direction. It's a really good exercise to do and you can, you know, you can think about what those expenses are in in multiple different ways and and people

um like I said, if there's like a just a kind of a easy momentum of saying, "Okay, well, my current lifestyle is this." It's not really going to change.

this." It's not really going to change.

Yeah, I'm going to have 30, 40, 50 hours uh extra a week to read and do crafts around the house, uh do some, you know, yard work and build things or whatever,

it's like you're probably not going to really add all that much expense. But if

you're going to be going from a week or two weeks of travel every year to traveling for, you know, a good portion of the year, well, perhaps that adds a

different expense burden. So that

exercise of helping to understand what that looks like is going to be helpful for you to figure out exactly what the target is that you're going for.

Really interesting, the expense side of of it. Um uh another question just for

of it. Um uh another question just for me uh to put in there not to forget it uh because of my mind forget it otherwise. How do you h have any of your

otherwise. How do you h have any of your retirement thoughts changed since strategy came out with stretch and uh

Strafe came out with Seda?

um as they provide income and potentially bring more

stability uh into a retirement fraud maybe around the margin um but only to the extent that

so so here's how I think about this um typically speaking I do not advocate for investing for income

I'd rather rather invest for total returns. I'd rather have more wealth

returns. I'd rather have more wealth over the long term, even if that comes with more volatility that I can draw from because it allows me to do more

things, right? if my wealth is

things, right? if my wealth is compounding at 25% per year over the next 20 years because

I own Bitcoin and you know can debate what what that actual compound annual growth rate is going to look like. Um I

I tend to think 25% might actually turn out to be conservative even even though we're going through this period where it's uh feels like feels like that's aggressive. Um, but if you talk to the

aggressive. Um, but if you talk to the power law guys, by the way, they'll say, "Oh, 25%. That's way too way too

"Oh, 25%. That's way too way too aggressive. The power law has

aggressive. The power law has diminishing returns." Yeah, yeah, yeah.

diminishing returns." Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Okay, great. Fine. Believe the power law. But, by the way, the power law says

law. But, by the way, the power law says that Bitcoin is going to grow at like 34% over the next few years and then it's

going to drop down below 25% like 15 or 20 years from now. So, actually I'm I'm much more conservative when I say 25% than they are. But that's a little bit

of an aside. I'm just poking a little bit when it comes to a comparison there of 25% versus 11 and a half% that you

get or 13% that you get from SATA or from uh STRC, which might be a little bit higher when

you adjust for the taxes. It still

doesn't actually compare. So you get this you still you get this like even returns but you're giving up total wealth over the longer term and I would

prefer to have more total wealth. I

think a better comparison is like okay if I've got if my view of the way that I want to build my portfolio is that I want stock

exposure and Bitcoin exposure and that long term piece of it. Well, maybe some portion of the stock exposure should go to something like an STRC or a SATA

because that's a more comparable type of an asset. And it's like now if if my

an asset. And it's like now if if my expectation of returns in the stock market is 10% per year with all the volatility that comes with it

or I could get 11.5% per year with no volatility or very little then now all of a sudden it makes a lot more sense to uh be putting some portion of that stock

sleeve into something like SGRC. I hope

this is making sense. uh but I just don't see them as like really comparable assets and I tend to want to focus on building wealth compounded at a much

higher rate even if it comes with the extra volatility that is there and then people will bring this back to yes but we need income in retirement we need to

have this so this is a good way that you can kind of use Bitcoin to fund your retirement and and what I would say to that is but you can create income

through the portfolio by selling it down. And this is the way that the or

down. And this is the way that the or borrowing against it if if that's your thing. But this is the way that the

thing. But this is the way that the traditional FIRE approach goes about things, right? Is that you build up this

things, right? Is that you build up this portfolio. It's big enough such that

portfolio. It's big enough such that you're pulling 4% uh or maybe a little bit higher if you own Bitcoin as part of that. And even in the absolute worst

that. And even in the absolute worst years and with the worst sequences, you've got an extraordinarily low chance of ever running out of money. And in

fact, most of the time, you're going to end up with far more than you need. Even

if you are actually selling that down over the period and not doing some of these more sophisticated financial tooling where you're borrowing against it and buying other assets and doing all

this kind of thing. It's a very simple approach, but it works. And it, in my mind, it optimizes for a mix of simplicity and maximum total wealth over

the lifetime of your retirement and then on into the future when you're passing down your wealth to your family.

Yeah, it's it's it's scary to be in Bitcoin. Um, but it rewards you because

Bitcoin. Um, but it rewards you because uh if if I mean it's hard to imagine the

exponential growth of reinvesting 11.5% versus getting 25 30 20% whatever it is.

It's not a 2x difference in the end.

It's like a 100x 10x difference depending on the duration of it. It's

it's a it's a multiple of it better than than the the underlying it because it's just like it compounds and it it really grows a heart. So like it's not a little bit better.

And Robin, let's let's not forget here that the success of Stretch and Seda depends entirely on the success of

Bitcoin going up over time. like Bitcoin

needs to go up at 25% plus per year over the foreseeable future in order for um Stretch and Seda to actually be

successful and be able to, you know, continue to return all that. Now, I I know I know what some people will say is like, "Oh, yeah, but they've already got it so overcolateralized they could go a

long time selling down Bitcoin."

Okay, fine. Like, that that's great. But

again, the success of this whole ecosystem does depend on Bitcoin being successful in terms of its price appreciation over the long term. So it's

not like these are totally uncorrelated assets in some way, shape or form.

Do you um reject them completely in in the portfolio or you see some kind of other role they could play maybe in emergency funds, maybe operating cash or

something like that for like medium-term capital that you don't want to have in a more volatile asset.

Yeah, I like it for the idea of an emergency fund. I've written a little

emergency fund. I've written a little bit about emergency funds and think it's a totally overblown concept that people um don't need to really be thinking about

to be perfectly honest. Like you should have all of your money invested at all times and then if there's an emergency you've now got a bigger pool of assets that you can draw from to to cover that

emergency. Um but if you are going to

emergency. Um but if you are going to have some kind of quote unquote emergency fund I think this is a really good option for it, right? because um it it should be relatively stable. It is

providing comparable returns to the stock market and you can sell it down whenever you need to in order to fund those fund those assets. What you

definitely don't want to do with an emergency fund is just sit on cash. Sit

on $50,000 worth of cash that's paying you 01% like what are you doing here?

This is this is to totally and completely an emotional crutch type of question as opposed to like thinking rationally about how you're allocating

the capital that you've got. Um I also think there's like I've done this kind of carry trade that I still have on with

STRC where I borrowed from my heliloc and um I didn't do the entire amount of the helock like I haven't maxed that out. It was kind of an experiment at

out. It was kind of an experiment at first. my the the bank that I've got my

first. my the the bank that I've got my heliloc from came to us and said, "We're giving a promotional rate of 5%." And I was like, "Great. I'm gonna take that 5%

uh promotional rate and I'm going to draw from the HELOC and I'm going to buy STRC and I'm going to make a spread of like five six%.

Um, and then I'm going to take all of the dividends that are coming from that or that return of capital and I'm going to buy Bitcoin with it. And then

assuming that this all works out, I can close the trade at any time. I'll sell

the STRC at par and pay off the heliloc and I'll walk away with kind of some free Bitcoin. Uh so far that's been

free Bitcoin. Uh so far that's been working. So even after that promotional

working. So even after that promotional rate expired, I still have kept this trade on because um I I I I continue to be

bullish on SDRC and the structure that is there. Um and and the conviction or

is there. Um and and the conviction or the the commitment that the strategy team has to ensuring that that dividend continues to pay out. uh they've kind of

put STRC on the pedal if you haven't noticed that like that's what they're selling to the market. Uh that is what kind of their primary focus is is like

making sure that STRC is functioning properly um and that they're maximizing

their um you know BTC per share but using that as a primary funding mechanism for their Bitcoin purchases going forward. Um, and so I I' I've

going forward. Um, and so I I' I've developed, you know, some good conviction that STRC will continue to perform the way that it has. And, um,

you know, while the yield that it's paying is at 11.5% versus 7% or whatever I'm paying right now, that's still a pretty good carry trade. It's still a

pretty good spread of free money. Um,

what I don't typically do though is take new money that's come in and then just directly buy STRC. I'd rather just buy the Bitcoin. Um, so this is is purely a

the Bitcoin. Um, so this is is purely a mechanical arbitrage type play as opposed to uh something that is

uh a primary savings mechanism if that makes sense.

How do you think about that? Sounds like running a business,

that? Sounds like running a business, but I don't think I don't find a better uh find a better uh term for that. How

do you think about operating cash? Like

because we still we we we haven't figured out the Bitcoin world like rarely I can directly spend bitcoin. I

mean there's ways of directly spending bitcoin but you still have the volatility. Uh so I personally operate

volatility. Uh so I personally operate under having around yeah currently it's a little bit more because I'm moving soon. Um uh but

usually I want to have like two to three months of operating cash just like in literally cold hard cash and I just experimented with having a very tiny

amount of that in um tiny amount small amount of that uh in in stretch because I was like okay um I still want to have

it uh liquid and not being not being dependent on the volatility of Bitcoin But like making 0.3% which I get from

the bank is not that good and getting 11% even like I have to pay taxes. I I

cannot do the deferred tax thing in Austria unfortunately. So uh for me it's

Austria unfortunately. So uh for me it's like 8% or something like that which is still like 80% 80 times better than the

banks. Um, and so how how do you think

banks. Um, and so how how do you think about operating cash in general, just like living on Bitcoin retirement? And

then maybe also like tie in a little bit stretch if that's an interesting strategy for operating cash.

Yeah, I think for like that near-term money that you know that you're needing, you're you're saving up for a particular you're you're you're putting cash aside

for a particular purchase that you know is upcoming. um is that that makes a lot

is upcoming. um is that that makes a lot of sense to me. So for for this moving expense or whatever, that makes a lot of sense to me. As long as you can feel pretty confident that you know it's

going to be around where you bought it um you know at the time that you need to sell it, you're not going to take too much of a capital loss or something like that. Um which even if that's the case,

that. Um which even if that's the case, it still may be worth it, right? because

you still may come out ahead even if you take a a small capital loss when you sell it because the dividends that you're getting um are are pretty high, right? And so that can that can make up

right? And so that can that can make up for, you know, some of the capital loss that you would get or that that you might be exposed to. Um, in terms of

like operating cash, I tend to view this purely as a mechanism for just making my life easier that if I'm 100% Bitcoin and I have zero cash, when it comes time to

pay the bills, which are coming out randomly throughout the uh throughout the month, then I've got to sell sell Bitcoin to pay it. I've got to use like some of the bill pay stuff like Strike has uh which is really cool and I use

that for my newsletter business, but my newsletter business has a whole lot less transaction frequency actually than my than my personal uh balance sheet does

or my personal finances. And so now all of a sudden I've got to account for all of the little tiny movements and and all that. like you're right, we're we're

that. like you're right, we're we're just kind of not in the world where the majority of people either accept Bitcoin or that the tax code is friendly enough to to be able to handle that. And so for

just simply ease of use, I will keep a small amount of cash in my bank account that's earning nothing. Um, but it's it's strictly to like just grease the

wheels of paying my bills. Anything over

and above that, I will I I want it to be working for me, right? I want it to be building toward that financial independence that uh that I'm working

toward. Um and I'm okay dealing with

toward. Um and I'm okay dealing with like volatility is not the problem for me in in that calculus, I guess, is what I'm getting at. The volatility of the Bitcoin price is not the problem for me.

Uh because I I on average it goes up every day, right? So, uh yeah, there may be volatility to the downside. Well,

then you can claim a little bit of a capital loss, but a lot of times you're going to have volatility to the upside and you're going to have a gain. Those

things are going to kind of offset to the point where you have a net gain over a long period of time. Um, I'm just not not too worried about about that that issue. It's more just about like how do

issue. It's more just about like how do I make my life a little bit easier when I'm dealing with the bills that I need to pay. That's it.

to pay. That's it.

Now, we've talked about the emotional state. We talked about uh the first

state. We talked about uh the first thing that is very important getting a feeling for your expenses that you will have not only right now but after you

retired and talking about that we talked about emergency funds and operating cash. And I think now the most important

cash. And I think now the most important uh uh uh question we got to left for the for the end or like for for the middle of the podcast is okay you know that you

have a certain amount of expenses per month. Let's say it's 5k to make a make

month. Let's say it's 5k to make a make a round kind of realistic number um per per month to cover all your expenses or life savings and all of that that maybe

even with a little bit of a buffer built into that um because maybe with inflation maybe there's something that is coming up. It's also Yeah, it's also

sometimes you have onetime expenses that you kind of have to bake into your monthly run rate because your monthly run rate might has rent and car payment and whatever in there, but maybe you

have a onetime payment of needing a new laptop or your I don't know your roof breaks down like whatever onetime payment you you have. Um, h if you have

that one number that you need, how do you think about looking at your assets, looking at your situations to getting to a point of actually being able to retire

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Yeah. So, um I think a really good starting point is the 4% rule, which is the traditional FIRE approach of saying,

I've got X expenses. Um you know, if you if you spend $100,000 per year, then you divide that number by 4% and you get to

a target for what you need to get your portfolio to. So if that if it's

portfolio to. So if that if it's $100,000, then it's $2.5 million worth of a savings portfolio being drawn down

annually at 4%. Um, and inflation adjusted as well, so you don't have to worry about inflation. That 4% rule kind of already takes care of that. Um, and

if your expenses are half of that, then you need half of that, right? 1.25

million. Uh, if it's double that, then you need double that. You need five million if if you're spending $200,000 per year. Uh and so um you know the this

per year. Uh and so um you know the this is very conservative especially for Bitcoiners. It's built off of historical

Bitcoiners. It's built off of historical stock and bond market returns which on uh kind of a nominal basis of a 50/50

stock and bond portfolio is is going to give you like a 7 to 8% return. If

you're just in stocks, it's going to be like a nominal 10% return or that's what it's been historically going back, you know, decades and decades. Um, actually,

in the recent past, it's been higher than that. It's been more like in the 12

than that. It's been more like in the 12 to 14% range on an annual basis. So, who

who knows if that will continue, but um but that 4% withdrawal relative to a 10% return if you're 100% in stocks has

plenty of buffer for inflation, volatility, um and kind of the unexpected areas of life.

If none of those unexpected things happened, if it was a perfectly straight or linear uh smooth cadence on all this,

then you'd have 6% in growth every single year if you're making 10% and withdrawing 4%. Of course, that's not

withdrawing 4%. Of course, that's not how things play out, right? So that

extra buffer accounts for sequence of withdrawal risk um and the volatility that comes with the markets uh and it it accounts for you know the extra expenses

that you that you might have on a year-to-year basis and that kind of thing. Um, if you are saving in Bitcoin

thing. Um, if you are saving in Bitcoin and Bitcoin can be at least double the uh the return rate than the stock

market, let's say 20%.

Well, then the question is, well, does that mean that you could actually double the withdrawal rate that you might have for Bitcoin? And I think the answer is

for Bitcoin? And I think the answer is yes. that

yes. that a 20% uh compound annual growth rate for the foreseeable future is conservative.

Actually, if we think it's at 25%, now all of a sudden an 8% withdrawal rate on the Bitcoin portion of your portfolio is very very conservative. And

most people don't own 100% stocks and they don't own 100 100% Bitcoin. There's

some blend there. So what you can do is you can apply the 4% rule to the stock portion and you can apply the 8% rule to the Bitcoin portion and come up with

like this blended withdrawal rate. So if

you are 50 50 stocks and Bitcoin and you apply 4% to stocks, 8% to uh Bitcoin, you're going to come out around 6% of a blended withdrawal rate from that

portfolio. And now we can take this one

portfolio. And now we can take this one step further actually and say, well, um, now you're thinking about those withdrawals at a 6% withdrawal rate.

You're thinking about those withdrawals in a proportional perspective. Like if

I've got $100,000 a year in expenses, I'm going to draw down um, you know, 4% 50 $50,000 of that coming from the stock side and $50,000 of that coming from the

Bitcoin side. But then the question is

Bitcoin side. But then the question is like, well, why would I sell any of the Bitcoin early on in my retirement? Why

don't I sell down my stock portfolio before I even touch the Bitcoin? And if

you're doing that, then you're giving the Bitcoin even longer runway to compound for the entirety of it, which actually would, you know, I haven't done the calculation on this, but that would

drive that blended withdrawal rate up slightly. um because you are able to

slightly. um because you are able to actually give maybe it's just a fiveyear buffer or something at the beginning of the retirement before you start touching the Bitcoin. Well, an extra 5 years of

the Bitcoin. Well, an extra 5 years of Bitcoin compounding at 25% all of a sudden balloons the portfolio much greater than it otherwise would be if you're selling it down proportionally.

Um, so there's a lot of nuance to that particular question, but I think the simplified version is 4% rule for any of the stocks you own, 8% rule for Bitcoin.

Come up with a blended number, and that is the target that you need to get to.

That's what you need to be focused on.

And it's just it's just a guidepost.

Doesn't have to be the exact dollar amount, but it should give you a really good um a really good thing to point at uh to say, "Okay, I've

got enough now. I can start to pull back. I can start to um I don't need to

back. I can start to um I don't need to save anymore. I could start to spend the

save anymore. I could start to spend the money if I if I decided I'm going to keep working. You you literally don't

keep working. You you literally don't have to send any more money to savings.

You could spend every last scent of it.

Buy those things early on before you actually retire that might be big expenses that you want to to buy a new car or whatever it is. Um and it's not at all going to affect the long-term

nature of your retirement or your financial independence. Um so this is

financial independence. Um so this is kind of how I think about this. By the

way, I've got a lot of this functionality built into a free tool that I have at calc.firebtc.io.

It's called the firebtc compass. And um

you can put in your expenses. You can do that all in one lump sum number of annual expenses. Or you can take a

annual expenses. Or you can take a granular itemized approach and build up your expenses from all the things that you can that you want to add to it. And

then it will do the calculation uh of your allocation between stocks and bitcoin and uh it will give you a uh 4% withdrawal rate on the stocks and 8% on

the bitcoin. Uh you can adjust those

the bitcoin. Uh you can adjust those numbers if you would like to. And then

uh it also has the ability for you to adjust the compound annual growth rate that you would expect for stocks, the inflation number that you would expect for um you know for the economy or your

expenses over time. And you can actually even flip it into power law mode. I know

there's a lot of power law uh fans out there. You can flip that into power law

there. You can flip that into power law mode as well for the the Kagger on Bitcoin. Uh, so lots of cool

Bitcoin. Uh, so lots of cool functionality there that can help you just get an idea of what these numbers might look like for yourself and um and use it to track over time. Uh, you can

you can kind of add data points every time you're you're updating your finances and watch the historical chart fill out. Um, so you can track this over

fill out. Um, so you can track this over time.

I see you're showing is is that the the correct website?

Is it the correct what?

Is that the correct uh one that I found here? Yeah, absolutely. That's it.

here? Yeah, absolutely. That's it.

Uh, so it start it starts with no um data in there. If you hit that update my

there. If you hit that update my finances button, it's going to bring you to this tab. And here's where you can either just input a number in there uh

as like your total number. Or if you go to detail mode, you can start to add line items in there. There's actually a line item for a buffer that you were talking about. And you can change what

talking about. And you can change what that buffer might be. There's a line item in there for uh capital gains as well because you know if you think about

it, the when you sell your assets later in life, if you're selling them down, there's some type of capital gains tax associated with that. And so you can um you can just plan for that as being an

extra expense that you're going to have to pay on an ongoing basis as well. And

so if you input all of those things in there, it'll give you it'll add it up to that annual expense number.

Interesting. I love it. I never seen that.

We could start with the like the this the 5K that I said before. What is it? I

think 60K would add it. Do I have to add it here?

Yeah. So, uh go back. There you go. Just

put it in there.

Yeah. 5K a month.

with 5k a month you probably need like 1 million 1.5 million or something like that.

Um, so this is a the amount of Bitcoin that you have, right?

So let's say you've got 10 Bitcoin, great stocks and other holdings.

Um, and th this I think about as liquid holdings, right? Like this is um things

holdings, right? Like this is um things that you actually can sell to fund your lifestyle. A lot of people own real

lifestyle. A lot of people own real estate or they've got equity in their home, right? If you've got $500,000 of

home, right? If you've got $500,000 of equity in your home, that's great. Looks

good on paper.

You can't actually use that money to pay for your lifestyle. You've either got to borrow against your home in order to access that equity or you've got to sell it and downsize. Uh so I I tend to not

not count it.

And so here you can see just a different breakout of okay, here's my annual expenses, here's my target if you're looking at just the traditional 4% rule.

um here's my portfolio value relative to that and then BTC holdings your adjusted fire target. So this is saying hey with

fire target. So this is saying hey with the amount of Bitcoin that you own you actually don't have to save as much right because there's a higher compound annual growth rate attributed to

Bitcoin. Um, and then these, um,

Bitcoin. Um, and then these, um, labels over here on this heat map or this thermometer are based on an article that I wrote called the the nine levels

of fire.

Interesting. So, you even have a time to fire. So, like a time like how long it

fire. So, like a time like how long it will take you to get to the the traditional fire space. It will be then the full fire like the the seven.

That's right.

Yep. That's right. So, that orange bar that's over there, you've you've reached that when you think about the the Bitcoin adjusted. Some people want to

Bitcoin adjusted. Some people want to just think about this is, okay, I'm going to be even more conservative. I'm

not going to assume an 8% withdrawal rate for Bitcoin. I'm just going to assume the the standard 4%. That's that

traditional number that that you'd be thinking about.

Interesting. And then it updates also this thing and then you come then closer to the to the actual number.

That's right. That's right. And then if you scroll down um now there's only one data point here. So you can't really see how this fills out. But over time, if

you come in tomorrow and you update your numbers or you come in next week or next month and you save that snapshot, this chart will start to fill out and it will show you like lines of where your

portfolio is, where the different targets are, and you can see what those snapshots are. Um, so you can kind of

snapshots are. Um, so you can kind of flip between like what the multiple looks like and and uh the percentage that you are to your goal and and all this kind of thing.

So, it's a a useful tool for kind of seeing what you need to achieve and tracking it over time.

I love here's one other thing that's that's really interesting. Go to the

really interesting. Go to the projections tab there. By the way, I I've I've not been able to spend as much time on this as I would like to build out a lot of the features. I probably

should spend more time on it than I have. Um, but it will over time get a

have. Um, but it will over time get a lot more robust. Um, so this is this is what I call the bare market stress test.

And what it does is it takes all of your information and it stress tests stress tests it against two historical bare market

cycles to say the the question that we're trying to answer here is if you retired tomorrow

when Bitcoin is at $75,000 and at that point in time was the start of another bare market draw down

that matched what was in those previous two cycles, would your portfolio survive over a 30-year time time horizon? And if

you if you go in and you change your your finances, you'll see you bring them much lower, right? Like you don't have enough saved, this thing will drop to zero. Um like make make your Bitcoin

zero. Um like make make your Bitcoin holdings one or something. Just Yeah,

that that might work. Yeah, that that's probably enough. Yeah, like you've got

probably enough. Yeah, like you've got $275,000 saved. Okay, go to projections.

$275,000 saved. Okay, go to projections.

So you if you retire tomorrow, your portfolio will be depleted six years later.

The only way to not have it depleted is that max safe withdrawal of 2,800. But

your expenses are much higher than that, right?

That you've put in there.

The expense, I think the expenses are like 5K a month that I put in.

Expenses are 5K a month. So, in order to not deplete the the portfolio, you would

need to spend $2,800 or less.

By the way, I know you're in Europe and you probably use euros. If you go to settings, um, go to, uh, preferences,

you can change the currency there as well.

Um, you can display everything in SATs if you'd like. And then you can back it up as well. So this is an important

as well. So this is an important distinction here with the way a lot of these um tooling works is that all of

the calculation, all of the data storage is all happening in the browser. Nothing

goes to some server somewhere. it's all

happening in that browser, which is great from a privacy perspective, but it also does um you know create the potential for you to lose that data if

something happens to that browser browser cache. And so uh that's why I

browser cache. And so uh that's why I have this like export import functionality so that it will take all of that snapshot history and allow you to back it up every once in a while. uh

just in case something were to happen there, you can always just import it back into the browser.

Yeah. If you, I don't know, delete the cookies of the browser, you probably lose all the all of that. That's right. That's right.

Um and then if you go to the assumptions tab, settings assumptions.

Um so here is where you can play with the compound annual growth rates. You

can change it into power law mode. Um,

you can change the stock growth rate, inflation rate, and you can play with your withdrawal rates as well.

I love that. That's a such a cool tool because this is really uh it it shows you like it it it lets you

put all your individual things in there without being like, "Oh [ __ ] like where's my data going?" And um you can adjust all the individual assumptions

because some might say I think Bitcoin is growing only with 20%, I think Bitcoin is growing with 35%. I mean with retiring I would always encourage people

to be extra conservative than than to to like it's it's better for you to have way more money than you thought you would have than way less money than you thought you would have and and run out

of your savings. I guess that's that's a better better way to do it. Um but yeah, that's I I couldn't even think about a single thing that's kind of missing here.

Oh, there's a lot that's missing.

There's a lot that I have in the backlog to add. Um I I think a lot of people

to add. Um I I think a lot of people want to see. Um

kind of more of like a total balance sheet perspective here. Like as I was saying, you know, stocks and other liquid assets are things that you can actually sell down to fund your lifestyle. But people do want to see

lifestyle. But people do want to see like more of a total picture of their net worth and include their home equity and and that kind of thing, which is like it's like wealth that they could tap if they wanted to go through some

extra steps to do so. Um, that does add an expense if you're going to do that.

So maybe we could model out what that would look like, right? If you've got $500,000 in equity or $200,000 in equity and you borrow against that, well, what is that going to do to your expenses? we

can make a few assumptions and then you know you're going to invest that money.

Um you know so then that adds to the asset side and the compounding that you've got. What does your picture look

you've got. What does your picture look like? So this is something that might

like? So this is something that might fit on that projections tab. There's um

there's a lot around income as well.

Like this is assuming that that you've got a portfolio of stocks in Bitcoin that you're selling down over time and that's the 100% sole way that you have

any income coming in. Well, that's not necessarily the way that life works. In

the US, we have social security. A lot

of other countries have pensions. Uh

they may be small or fairly immaterial amounts, but it's something that's adding to your income. And if you

incorporate that income into the um into the total picture here, you're actually lowering the target portfolio amount

that you need to save uh because you no longer have to sell as much down in order to cover those expenses. Um same

thing for like a lot of people own real estate and they've got a real estate portfolio and they don't want to sell it for Bitcoin or stocks. They're fine with the ili liquidity and and all that and they've got this income coming in. So,

there's a lot there's a whole lot that could be built into this that I will uh get to over time. Um, if if anybody's listening and watching and is experimenting with the tool, please feel

free to there there's a spot down at the bottom of that page that says, you know, reach out for any feedback that you've got. Um, please send send me what you

got. Um, please send send me what you got. I'm happy to put it into the

got. I'm happy to put it into the backlog and get to it when I can.

Ah, really cool. Um,

it's also answered my question of like bare market start versus bull market start because here you can go ahead and see what would a bare market starting right

now do to my holdings and would it would it uh fit that which I think especially in Bitcoin we kind of have to uh do that probably for the next 10 years still

five years still. Um, I want to get to one more topic. You hinted at it, uh, I think two, three times. I feel like you're not a fan of the power law. Why?

Why is that?

Um, it's not that I'm not a fan of the power law. Um, I'm definitely not a

power law. Um, I'm definitely not a fanboy of the power law. I think it's it's an interesting way to put some kind

of nonarbitrary projections out there, but it is based on the history. And um

I'm not convinced that the power law is some type of um natural force that is just playing out like it's some law of nature. It's

not physics, right? Um, I I've also I'm also kind of irked and and maybe somebody who's listening can can correct me here if I'm wrong. I'm irked when people say, "Oh, well, Bitcoin can't

follow an exponential path. It always

has to have these diminishing returns."

You know, the stock market has exponential paths because, you know, it's growing at 10% per year o for forever basically. And that's because of

forever basically. And that's because of the fiat financial system and like all these, you know, the credit that's built in and it's got earnings and all these things. Um,

things. Um, and I haven't been able to wrap my head around that argument.

Bitcoin exists and is denominated in the exact same political currency units as the stock market is. And so even if you think that the compound annual growth

rate for Bitcoin is going to settle at a much lower rate than it has historically speaking, um, at the very least,

like if the money supply is growing at an exponential rate and you're denominating the Bitcoin price in that money or in that denomination, then it

must grow at least that amount, right?

and and there's I I I just haven't been able to square uh around why that would break down when we're talking about the same denominations

here. So, there's just a few things that

here. So, there's just a few things that um that bother me about it. I think all all your models will be destroyed is a is a very um is a very good way to think

about things like this idea all models are are um you know are wrong and some are useful.

I think that applies to the power law as well. It's really cool and it's it's uh

well. It's really cool and it's it's uh I like a lot of the research there, but I just like I I refuse to

um allow myself to come up with something or uh follow something in a type of religious way

that I can't square some of these um some of these issues with. So, some

people are probably watching this and and thinking, "Oh, well, you just haven't done done the research, all that." I actually have written something

that." I actually have written something in the in the newsletter about the power law and and gone through these arguments here. Um, but uh I'm happy to be proven

here. Um, but uh I'm happy to be proven wrong. I hope they're right. I hope it

wrong. I hope they're right. I hope it goes up forever um in in the way that they describe and that you can use the power law floor to um just know that it's never going to go below there for

any extended period of time. I just

don't think that's how the world works.

And so, um, we'll see. We'll see.

All models get on there.

Yeah. All models are correct until they're broken, I guess.

Exactly. Exactly. and and that's the reason that I put it in the in the dashboard or in the in the compass tool is that I know a lot of people do like take the power law very seriously and

and um I think the concept of diminishing returns at least over the you know foreseeable future is a valid one that is how what we've seen so far

right and so instead of just saying okay well we're going to have diminishing returns and I'm just going to put my finger in the air x it's going to be this 5 years from now and this 10 years from now or whatever. Like I have no

good methodology for coming up with what that might look like. Um but the power law at least brings that out of complete arbitraryness and and looks at historical data to

project forward. I think that's a valid

project forward. I think that's a valid way to look at things. I just don't think of it as like some type of actual law of nature that will continue um based off of all all of the arguments

that that have been put forward for it.

So happy to be proven proven wrong, but I I I can't get there yet.

If uh it it tells me a lot actually about uh about you, like a lot of positive things about you if you don't believe in it, but you acknowledge the

place it has in the Bitcoin community that you still put it in your own tool.

Uh it uh uh it's it's really cool to see uh people I could have put stock to flow in there too but you know I think it's pretty the community has reached consensus that

that model was broken right yeah that but that's very obviously like but that's just very obvious hindsight in hindsight right we we could fast

forward five years from now and the power law broke to the upside or the downside and we look back and be like yeah well that was obvious you know and same kind of thing. So, at that point, I'll strip it out of the tool and make

sure there's no record of all this. I'll

need you to scrub the video and us talking about that fact that it ever existed. You know,

existed. You know, I'm just kidding.

We we cannot be wrong.

Wrong all the time. If uh if you're pretending otherwise, what what are you doing? You're just fooling yourself,

doing? You're just fooling yourself, right? So,

right? So, it's so funny because I'm 27 years old and I've been wrong already so many times and trust me. I'm 41. You got a whole lot

trust me. I'm 41. You got a whole lot more wrongness ahead of you.

Um, we have an end routine in the podcast as you might know uh from previous experiences where the previous guest is asking a question for the next guest without knowing who the next guest

actually is. And he asked a two-part

actually is. And he asked a two-part question. Uh the the first part of the

question. Uh the the first part of the question is if you could travel 300 years in the future, what do you think would surprise you the most?

300 years in the future, what would surprise me the most?

Well um 300 years in the future.

Okay.

I think there's a lot of optimism and expectancy that like Elon has is going to be able to solve this

get off the planet Earth and establish some kind of like lunar or Martian colony or something like that 300 years in the future. I'll be surprised if

that's actually happened.

I'll be surprised if that's actually happened. I think that the physical

happened. I think that the physical limitations around all of that in my very not expert opinion uh are way

greater than we think they are and still extraordinarily difficult to overcome in a way where we

would have people actually living on Mars or on the moon. Um, now that's not to say that we might not be able to have some type of extraction coming from

those things. Like maybe there's some

those things. Like maybe there's some great resources on those bodies that we'd be able to uh pull back to Earth in some way, shape, or form. But getting

off of Earth and moving to one of those two places just um I don't think that happens in in 300 years from now. Well,

that was really I don't know. I don't

know. I can't come up with anything else. Was that good?

else. Was that good?

Uh I I don't have an answer to those questions. Like it's super hard for me

questions. Like it's super hard for me to think about that. But Earth is an amazing place to live. That that that's for sure. And it it's I mean I guess

for sure. And it it's I mean I guess that would surprise me like if in 300 years we found a better planet to live on than Earth, that would definitely

surprise me. But I don't don't think

surprise me. But I don't don't think it's realistic. But yeah, like that that

it's realistic. But yeah, like that that would 100% surprise me a lot if we find a planet that's just more livable and better suited for humans and maybe there

already are other humans um than but we can't we can't get there to any of these planets that might already exist. So then you have to like build

exist. So then you have to like build one essentially and I just man that just seems unfathomable to me. But

well yeah that's 300 years. Um the the second part of the question is is a really interesting one and I think it's even harder to answer. Um if if if someone from that time would travel back

to our time, what do you think would surprise them the most?

Oh. Um,

I think they would be surprised by just how primitive the governance structures that we have in

place actually are. That they are absolutely built for the dark ages.

um and do not at all apply to like the technological foundation that we all live in on a day-to-day basis. Like

democracy and um like the state apparatus as it exists is just so antiquated and

counterproductive and ridiculous. Um,

and I would I would hope that 300 years from now, we've gotten past all of this craziness with the way that we approach

um, some elite group of people managing the minute details of millions and billions of people's lives around

the globe and have moved much further down the path of individual freedom and autonomy.

and cooperative uh cooperative manifestations of working together in in society as opposed to that which is based on force

and violence. Um I would hope that 300

and violence. Um I would hope that 300 years go by and that person in the future is looking back at the past and being like the the same way that we look

back 300 years and like how did they live like that? Right? So anyway, that's a maybe a hopeful thought to end on.

I love that. Really cool. Yonyi

Appleberg has has amazing questions. Uh

it's a very deep one. M made me think about the future. Um really cool. Thank

you so much uh Trey for being on the podcast, being such a gracious uh uh uh guest and and bring so much value with the calculator and all your insights to the podcast. Um before I let you go,

the podcast. Um before I let you go, where can people find you, the things that you're doing and uh get some updates?

Yeah, thanks Robin. really appreciate

you having me again and hopefully we can do it again soon. Um, you can find me on xts_hodle.

Um, my day job is I work at Unchained uh on the sales team. So, uh, go check out unchained.com. We have a retirement

unchained.com. We have a retirement account calculator that's there as well and Bitcoin IAS um, which are uh, definitely a good tool that you should

consider. Um, I have a personal website,

consider. Um, I have a personal website, traceellers.com. And I've just started

traceellers.com. And I've just started building out, um, a YouTube channel, uh, so you can go check that out as well.

Just search for my name. It should come up. Um, and then the newsletter is kind

up. Um, and then the newsletter is kind of the foundation of all of the Fireb stuff, uh, which is firebtc.io.

And don't forget to check out that calculator when you get a chance.

Awesome. Thank you much, uh, Trey, for being on the podcast. Also, thank you so much for everyone and for for everyone that is watching and listening for joining us today. As always, I'll be back.

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.